Monday, May 31, 2010
Crawford, Warren on first-round bubble
NBA draft boards are still in flux at the moment. With the combine behind us and the first major group workout completed, teams are now moving into individual workouts -- the last stage of a process that began several years ago for most prospects.
Individual workouts afford teams the chance to get up close and personal with players. They get to see prospects go head-to-head with each other, get private interviews and even get to take them out to dinner. It's the equivalent of a final exam for a prospect.
Fail it, and your chances of getting drafted plummet. Ace it, and you might hear that team call your name. We've talked about a number of lottery and mid-first-round prospects for the past week. Right now, based on conversations with a number of NBA GMs, the top 23 players on our
Big Board look like first-round locks.
However, another 20 or so players are firmly planted on the dreaded first-round bubble. What they do in the coming workouts will determine whether they get one of those last, coveted, two-year guaranteed contracts or whether they slip into more uncertain territory in the second round.
Here's a closer look at each of those prospects and what they'll have to do to sneak into Round 1.
Solomon Alabi, 7-foot-1, Florida State
Alabi has the size NBA teams covet. He also has the motor. However, he's still raw and coming off knee surgery. He's got to show teams that he's not the next in a long line of big-man busts mostly by convincing them that he'll be content as a shot-blocking/rebounding specialist. If he plays physical and does the dirty work in workouts, he should be a lock for the first round. He could be a great fit on a team that needs more size, such as the Celtics, Thunder or Spurs.
Robin Benzing, 6-10, Germany
Five teams -- the Wizards, Nets, Timberwolves, Grizzlies and Thunder -- have multiple first-round picks. Most likely, they'll want to stash a player overseas for a few years, let him develop and then hope to cash in. Benzing's big test will be at the Adidas Eurocamp. If he can show the same promise that he displayed at the under-20s in Greece last summer, he should be in good shape.
Trevor Booker, 6-8, Clemson
Booker is an undersized 4 but has a great motor, good athleticism and toughness. He needs to prove he can be an energy player in the mold of
Jason Maxiell,
Carl Landry and
DeJuan Blair. How can he do that? The same way Landry did, by going into every workout and physically dominating. In the late first round, teams are looking for toughness and the ability to help right away. Booker could fit that bill.
Craig Brackins, 6-10, Iowa State
Brackins has NBA talent but didn't always show it last year. It's going to be critical that he knock down 18-foot jump shots and attack the glass in workouts. He'll also want to show off the athleticism he demonstrated at the combine. Few scouts saw that on the court last season at Iowa State, so Brackins needs to prove that it can translate into game situations. If he does, he's another guy who should be a lock for the first.
Jordan Crawford, 6-4, Xavier
Everyone knows Crawford is one of the best scorers in the draft. What they don't know is whether that will translate to the next level. He has to show two things. The first one is coachability. Will he take instruction from coaches? There have been big questions marks about that in the past. The second is attitude. Will he be content coming off the bench? If he will, he will be a very desirable pick late in the first round, since so few players can step in and score the way he can.
Devin Ebanks, 6-8, West Virginia
Ebanks has ability, but his off-court issues combined with average combine scores have given everyone pause. However, Ebanks has already shown that he can be a terrific defender at the next level. He'll need to contain his instincts to launch 3s and try to do too much offensively and just lock down every player he guards in workouts. It worked for
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. It can work for Ebanks, too, if he shows the right attitude.
Keith Gallon, 6-10, Oklahoma
Gallon is a talent, and every scout knows it. Two things will be critical for him: One, he's in love with his jump shot right now. But no one is drafting a 6-9, 300-pound guy to launch 3s. Will he go into the paint and fight? Second, can he convince teams that he'll get in shape and stay there? Most guys with weight issues in college keep them in the pros. Gallon will have to show why he's different. If he can, he's another player who might be too good to pass on in the late first.
Armon Johnson, 6-4, Nevada
He was a proven scorer in college, and his combine numbers were off the charts. But is Johnson a point guard? That's the question he's getting as he matches up with the likes of
Eric Bledsoe and
Avery Bradley. Teams also want some assurance Johnson can shoot the long ball. He doesn't have to be
Ray Allen, but they need to see him hit some shots. The other thing working against Johnson is that there aren't a lot of teams in the 20s looking for point guards. But on pure talent, he probably deserves to be there.
Dominique Jones, 6-5, South Florida
Jones is a big-time scorer, and after watching
Marcus Thornton bust out as a rookie, teams are wary of passing on him. He's been competing well in just about every workout, but he is going to have to prove he can sink the NBA 3-pointer to have a real shot at the first round.
Jerome Jordan, 7-1, Tulsa
Jordan is huge and more polished on offense than you'd think. With him, the issues are all about toughness and motor. Many GMs see him as laid-back; he's going to have to get physical and play a little nasty in workouts to convince them that he's got the temperament to man the middle in the NBA.
Gani Lawal, 6-9, Georgia Tech
Lawal had a good college career but has struggled to get anyone to fall in love with him. That's partly because, while Lawal is a good player in a number of areas, he doesn't excel at anything in particular. In workouts, he's going to have to define for NBA teams who he is and show them that one thing that will translate to the next level.
Dexter Pittman, 6-11, Texas
Pittman is coming off a horrible personal tragedy after a solid first day at the draft combine. Pittman's draft issues are simple: Can he lose enough weight to be able to stay on the court for more than five minutes at a time? If team doctors believe the answer is yes, he'll leapfrog just about everyone else on this list. But right now it's still a big, big question mark.
Quincy Pondexter, 6-7, Washington
Of all the players on this list, Pondexter is the guy most likely to land in the first round. He's coming off a huge senior season that finally saw him live up to his ability. To seal the deal, teams want to see him shoot and handle the ball well enough to make defenses a little honest when they guard him.
Miroslav Raduljica, 7-1, Serbia
Raduljica is another international candidate with a chance to go late in the first to a team with multiple picks. He's coming of a solid season in Europe and has the size NBA teams covet. But teams will want assurances that at some point in the future he'll actually come here to play. His contract situation is a bit of a mess right now, and no one is sure what his long-term intentions are.
Stanley Robinson, 6-8, Connecticut
Robinson is an NBA athlete all the way. But does he have the mental toughness it takes to succeed at the next level? He has to put in a lot of hard work to get his skill level up to par. How will he handle the long road ahead?
Larry Sanders, 6-11, VCU
Sanders, like Pondexter, is close to a lock for the first round. His size and shot-blocking ability give NBA teams a lot to covet. But can he take his raw abilities and turn them into NBA tools? Sanders is going to have to beat someone in a workout between now and June 24.
Lance Stephenson, 6-6, Cincinnati
Stephenson is another guy who unquestionably has pro talent. But is he mature enough to make it in the league? How Stephenson answers that question (via psych tests and background checks) will have a bigger impact on his draft status than anything he does on the court.
Jarvis Varnado, 6-10, Mississippi State
Varnado is a shot-blocking machine. But will he put in the hard work in the weight room to handle the tough duties of an NBA big man? He's still too thin and has never really gotten into great shape. Can he convince NBA teams that with the right program in place, he'll do it at the next level?
Willie Warren, 6-4, Oklahoma
Warren is a lottery talent who blew his high draft position entering the season with poor play and an even worse attitude. Now he's trying to prove to NBA teams that he's changed his ways and could still be a lethal combo guard in the pros. Much like Stephenson, the questions will be answered off the court, not on it.
Terrico White, 6-5, Mississippi
White is one of the draft's best athletes, and he's loaded with skills. It's all about putting those things together on the court. Does he have the motor and the desire to dominate every night? If he did, he'd be a lottery pick. Now the question is, will he bring it often enough to warrant a first-round pick?
Elliot Williams, 6-4, Memphis
Williams had a terrific year at Memphis. But is he a 1 or a 2? He'll move into the first round if he can show he's a point guard. As an undersized 2, he's likely a second-round pick.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Need/value for picks 6-10
A little while back,
we evaluated the first five picks of the draft from a need versus value perspective, but as we get deeper into the lottery, things can get really muddled. Most people now agree on the top five players in this draft, but picking the next 10 involves a range of 15 to 20 players from which to choose. That's what the upcoming individual workouts will help define. The season spelled out the team needs, and the workouts (and lots of tape watching and interviews) will help decide the value. As we head into June, here's what the teams picking sixth through 10th are dealing with.
[h3]No. 6
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=gswGolden State Warriors[/h3]
Need: The Warriors simply do not have a post scorer. I love
Anthony Randolph as a talent and a guy who makes plays without scoring, but he'll never be a paint scorer. And no matter what they end up doing with
Monta Ellis, for
Stephen Curry to reach his full potential, he will need a guy who can get buckets inside. The same can be said for the team as a whole. The Warriors fly up and down the floor, but until they get more efficient players (who also rebound), they will look great but never accomplish anything special.
Value: Chad Ford's
Mock Draft 3.0 has DeMarcus Cousins going in this spot. I can see it now: Hours of sprinting up and down the floor is surely going to help Cousins get into great shape. Honestly, it's perhaps the easiest thing for an NBA team to do with rookies, who are coming from a very different culture in college. He'd have both the money to hire a personal chef and a team very invested in making sure he goes from large to medium, relatively speaking. I can't imagine Cousins dropping past this point. The Warriors would be getting a guy with "top pick overall" talent at the No. 6 spot. If he's gone, expect the Warriors to grab whichever of the other guys we've discussed before at this spot, most likely
Al-Farouq Aminu.
[h3]No. 7
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=detDetroit Pistons[/h3]
Need: I don't think the Pistons are set anywhere except for 2-guard. They're certainly not set at the point, where
Rodney Stuckey had the worst assist rate/true shooting percentage combination of all starting point guards. And while the Pistons like both
Austin Daye and
Jonas Jerebko, if they could upgrade their talent at those spots, they would. So, really, any player at the other four spots would work. This is a team without an identity, which means finding a player with a "presence" makes sense. A center is the Pistons' biggest need, though, and that's why
Cole Aldrich,
Ed Davis,
Greg Monroe,
Ekpe Udoh and even
Solomon Alabi are in the mix here.
Value: There are some guards who probably will end up as better players than the assortment of bigs who will be available at this pick, but this is a case in which Detroit will get an equal lift from a lesser talent who will get more chances at earning playing time. Any of those centers probably will get into their playing rotation by January and could end up as a starter. I have questions about each of these guys, but Udoh and Monroe both have enough in them to become solid NBA players. If they were sure things, they'd be leading candidates for picks 3 through 6. Ford has Detroit taking Davis, who probably has the biggest upside and downside of the group. Udoh is the safer pick.
[h3]No. 8
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lacLos Angeles Clippers[/h3]
Need: The Clippers currently have one incredibly talented rookie in this class,
Blake Griffin. With
Marcus Camby gone and
Chris Kaman in the fold, I'd think the biggest need for them is on the perimeter, especially on the wings.
Eric Gordon is a player but not necessarily a starter. And their 3 spot is a source of pain. Finding a wing who can shoot and someone who can defend with strength should top their wish list. That leads us to
Gordon Hayward,
Luke Babbitt and possibly
Xavier Henry.
Value: In terms of value, Hayward probably makes the most sense, which is why Ford has him going here. He's going to be able to play both wing spots on both ends, and he brings a "nastiness" that goes along perfectly with Griffin's demeanor. Henry is intriguing, though, as his shooting currently projects to be NBA-level from the get-go, and Griffin and Kaman need shooters around them. [h3]No. 9
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=uthUtah Jazz[/h3]
Need: What does a top-caliber team like the Jazz need? Depth, depth and depth. Their front line dealt with injuries all season, plus they might lose
Carlos Boozer to free agency. Adding a center to back up aging sharpshooter
Mehmet Okur seems to make sense, but they have talented young bigs in
Kyrylo Fesenko (23 years old) and
Kosta Koufos (21). So power forward is the bigger need, or a sharpshooting wing to work with undrafted starter
Wesley Matthews. All the bigs we've mentioned (excluding Alabi), plus Hayward, are in play here. I think Henry and Babbitt are, too.
Value: The Jazz are well known as a team that prefers to bring its rookies along slowly, and rightfully so, as Utah typically is in playoff contention or better. So this pick is more about tomorrow than today. Because of that,
Avery Bradley might end up being the guy here. He has terrific upside and could play next to
Deron Williams on both ends of the floor. In five years, he could be better than most of the players taken ahead of him. Ford picks Monroe, who does have excellent passing skills that will fit in perfectly in Utah's offensive system. But can he handle Jerry Sloan's tough love? One last guy I love here is
Patrick Patterson, if the Jazz look for a "ready to help us win a title now" guy. He'd play
Paul Millsap's old role well as Millsap moves into the starting lineup for Boozer.
[h3]No. 10
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=indIndiana Pacers[/h3]
Need: Indiana was a solid defensive team, believe it or not, for much of the season. But the Pacers were in the bottom five on offense. And they got killed in their backcourt and at the center position. That gives a big edge to the better offensive centers in the draft, like Monroe and Aldrich. The Pacers have to upgrade their scoring punch, so looking at Hayward as a shooting guard makes some sense, and Patterson would be able to help right away. Bradley's offense should be solid if not better in a year or two, and his defensive mindset matches the coach's there.
Value: Monroe has value but might be too much like
Roy Hibbert. That's why I see Aldrich as a solid guy here and possibly Davis as a longer-term project. All three are safe picks. This team needs an identity, though, and the quickest way for that to hapen is to get a jet as a point guard. So Bradley will have his chances to get into this spot as well.