What the Mike Holmgren Story Means for the 49ers
Yesterday evening, 49er fans were treated to an unexpected announcement. Mike Holmgren (three time Superbowl coach and slayer of donuts) expressed his interest in being the 49ers head coach...
Again. Whether or not he ends up getting passed over by a Tomsula regime for the second year in a row is still unknown. If you want to follow that discussion, have a blast
in here. Today I wanted to toss out a fan theory about what this announcement means in the broader picture for the 49ers.
I find this whole story to be really interesting. Why? Well, for starters, when is the last time you can remember a coach openly and publicly politicking for a
currently filledposition? Successful retired coaches like Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden, and Bill Cowher are pined after. It's not uncommon to hear their names passed around at the end of an NFL season as a guy that teams would be interested in talking to about upcoming vacancies. But you never hear about a coach actively pointing to an NFL team, and saying "I want that job." This is especially true when the job is currently filled! Jim Tomsula really is the Rodney Dangerfield of coaching. No respect at all. This really is uncharted territory. So where is the interest coming from, and why did Holmgren decide to pull the trigger on this news now?
And this is where the facts end, and my conjecture begins:
Mike Holmgren has been an NFL Offensive Coordinator, Head Coach, and Team President. The man is plugged in. Now, it is certainly possible that he is bored in retirement and wants back in the game. This whole report could be as simple as that. He is (or was) a big name, he sees that the 49ers are in turmoil, and he is tossing it out there to get some attention. Sure. But the fact that he is so plugged in leaves the door open to the possibility that he is hearing something, and acting on that evidence.
It is possible that Holmgren has heard that the 49ers are sniffing around for coaches. Holmgren still has an active coaching circle after all. (Note to Jim Tomsula: a "coaching circle" is a group of friends that you have acquired over the years inside the football coaching network... Note to Jed York, a "friend" is a person that spends time with you even when your mother doesn't have them on payroll.) The most likely scenario is that the 49ers are sniffing around coordinators to replace Geep Chryst, and/or one of the other coordinator positions. Here is where things get interesting.
Jim Tomsula: a man without a country
Here's a term that I bet never gets used, "the Jim Tomsula coaching tree." No offense to Jimbo, but I doubt he ever ends up with one of those. The coordinator search after Jim Tomsula's hire last year was not an easy one, and it ended with the promotion of two internal position coaches in lieu of locating established figures. This is because Jim Tomsula has no network of coaches to pull from. If locating coordinators was that difficult
last year, when Jim Tomsula was a surprise pick, and a relative unknown, how easy will that task be
this year, now that the blanks in Tomsula's biography have been replaced with the blank expressions he's been making on game days? I'm guessing that this is the big wrench in the plan to retain Tomsula for next year. If the team plans on retaining Tomsula, but dumping one or more of his coordinators, that still requires them to find those new coordinators. Asking coaches to tie themselves to a sinking ship is not an easy sell. I think that Mike Holmgren knows this, and by presenting himself as an alternative, he just made that job a million times more difficult.
Mike Holmgren is now the worst option
Another benefit to the announcement is that Mike Holmgren just made himself the worst possible option for the 49ers 2016 Head Coach (assuming the 49ers chose to part ways with Jim Tomsula). When was the last time that a team
this bad had a situation
this good? It just doesn't happen. Ever! By announcing his interest in the (currently filled) position, Holmgren is very publicly making Jed York an offer that is very difficult to refuse. One week ahead of the NFL's "Black Monday" Holmgren has essentially told the 49ers that if they part ways with 5-11 lifetime record holder Jim Tomsula, the absolute worst they could do is hiring a 67 year old head coach with a career winning percentage of .592, that has been to the Superbowl three times, winning once, and losing two very close games, one of which should have gone his way.
So there it is. Cut bait with Tomsula, and the worst you can do is to get an excellent head coach. That is a ton of suddenly added pressure for Jed York to consider a week ahead of having to make a decision that (if it goes Tomsula's way) would be historically panned by the fans even without this Holmgren news. That is a massive point in Holmgren's favor. It would appear that Jed York likes the Machiavellian types. Well Jed, here you go.
he literally just needs more seasoning. i wouldn't change a thing. he's technically sound on all levels. i just love how fast he can get into a fundamental throwing position. dude shifts his feet and weight to match his eyes at a speed most NFL QBs can't match.
