QB THREAD - 2x quarterbacky award winner: Lamar Jackson

[fraij da 5 11]

Just wait til Josh Gordon comes back! 

 Hoyer gonna be chucking exclusively 30+ yards down field.

 

[tripda6]

Not interested in seeing the niners get records broken on them... Especially one like that

 

[CP1708]

Gil Brandt ‏@Gil_Brandt 2m2 minutes ago
Pickable passes (ball thrown that should have been INT):

Best: Cam Newton (0 in 179 att), Matt Ryan (1-234)

Worst: Jay Cutler (9-229)

Manish Mehta @MMehtaNYDN · 21h 21 hours ago
Hope this doesn't get "miscommunicated" or "misprinted": Geno Smith is 9-13 as a starter & thrown an INT in 18 of 22 career games. #nyj

Manish Mehta @MMehtaNYDN · 21h 21 hours ago
Hope this doesn't get "miscommunicated" or "misprinted" either: Geno has worst QB rating among starters & next-to-last in completion% in NFL

Tom Brady has the best winning percentage (.920) against the Bills of any quarterback against any opponent since the merger.

Only Dan Marino (217) had more passing touchdowns in his first 100 games than Aaron Rodgers (203). Rodgers has 15 passing touchdowns and one interception this season. He's pretty good.

 

[nooera]

Marino having 14 more TDs in the first 100 games than Rodgers is some amazing stuff

 

[CP1708]

Marino having 14 more TDs in the first 100 games than Rodgers is some amazing stuff

In an era of no passing. He would feast stupidly in this era.

Well, unless Joe Philbin was the coach, but I would think Dan would have shanked him during the first preseason together.

 

[nooera]

Plus Marino started playing well instantly

No garbage rookie season . No clipboard duty for three years under a HOF QB

Respect to Marino one of the GOATS

 

[dmxfury]

To be fair Marino was in the era of 'some passing'. Pre 78 was the no passing era. When a 1:1 ratio wasn't terrible in those days


Not knocking Dan, I've said how I feel about his records and career many times

 

[air spider 777]

To be fair Marino was in the era of 'some passing'. Pre 78 was the no passing era. When a 1:1 ratio wasn't terrible in those days

That's why I say Bert Jones' 1976 MVP season has been overlooked when discussions of greatest qb seasons happen.

But Marino's era, they allowed a lot more defensive holding, etc. Dude would be putting up better numbers than Brees for sure.

Miss watching Marino. Dude was awesome and a pleasure to watch. Too bad I caught him at the tail end of his career.

 

[champcruthik]

fraij da 5 11 :
Funny timing with my Rodgers' comment leading up to the Dolphins game, who Green Bay historically plays poorly against. Wasn't a knock, BTW. Just making QB conversation when it was raised.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

@fraij da 5 11:
Funny timing with my Rodgers' comment leading up to the Dolphins game, who Green Bay historically plays poorly against. Wasn't a knock, BTW. Just making QB conversation when it was raised.

We can discuss it.

I find it interesting that becomes a "knock" on Rodgers that hes got a 'poor' record in close games.

But when you're record is 65-35 career and 22 of those L's came in games decided by less than a TD... Shouldn't that be a good thing?  It's certainly a better overall record than most during that time span and in all but 13 of his first 100 games ended within a TD.

What percentage of those close games would he have needed to win to make him "clutch" in the eyes of those making the argument?

 

[champcruthik]

We can discuss it.

I find it interesting that becomes a "knock" on Rodgers that hes got a 'poor' record in close games.

But when you're record is 65-35 career and 22 of those L's came in games decided by less than a TD... Shouldn't that be a good thing?  It's certainly a better overall record than most during that time span and in all but 13 of his first 100 games ended within a TD.

What percentage of those close games would he have needed to win to make him "clutch" in the eyes of those making the argument?

Pure observation point from my personal perspective, sometimes I feel Rodgers is almost too safe with the football. Great arm, but so smart and methodical he's almost like an anti-gunslinger. When you're chasing leads, sometimes you have to risk more. Fit the football into tight windows or double coverage.

If you make a base comparison, Rodgers is 30 and Luck is 25. Yet the junior player one more fourth quarter comeback than Rodgers, and same amount of career game-winning drives.

 

[DeadsetAce]

we talked about his record in close games before, actually. it was back in i want to say 2009 when the pats were losing close games. the whole topic came up then.

part of it is just aaron rodgers led teams don't get blown out. and it's not like they're gonna go undefeated. so most of his losses come in tight games. i want to say it was something along those lines but i could be off. it's 11:30 and i'm beat after my game tonight

 

[SneakerProSr.]

I'd like to know how many games Andrew Luck had to come back in because he played like **** in the first half whereas somebody like Rodgers just hasn't been down big.

 

[tripda6]

I wonder how many of those A-Rods games that he lost have been a result of the defenese?

did he give them a lead and the defense blew it and allowed the opposing teams offense to march down the field.

Checked the game logs of all A-Rods one possession losses since 08 where the other team had the game winning score(didn't include defensive/special teams tds)

08
Titans GW FG ot
Vikings: AP go ahead td 2:22 left
Panthers: Deangelo Williams td 1:30 left
Texans: GW FG Time expiring
Jags: MJD TD 1:56 left
Bears GW FG ot
09
Steelers: Ben td pass as time expired
10
Bears GW FG 4 secs left
******** GW FG ot (also game tying FG w/1:06 left)
Dolphins GW FG ot
Falcons FG with 9 secs left (Rodgers threw td to tie with 56 secs left
12
Fail Mary
Colts: Luck td pass with 35 secs left (pack blew 21-3 halftime lead)
Vikings GW FG as time expired
13
49ers GW FG as time expired

Packers have only lost 3 games by 15+ points with Rodgers starting :x

 

[fraij da 5 11]

So 15 games where he had the team ahead late in the 4th and GB still lost? 

 '08 was a frustrating year, man.

So was 2010 until the playoffs rolled around and dude went into ATL and mollywhopped the Falcons.

@ChampCruThik  I agree he needs to take some more risks sometimes, I don't know if Sunday was an indication that he has realized that too but he threw that ball to Jordy running backwards and then ran the fake spike with 10 seconds left and no timeouts to a Rookie WR that didn't know the ball was coming his way until the snap.

He does protect the football almost to a fault at times though.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Relevant:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-the-aaron-rodgers-enigma/#ss-4 

 
NFL WEEK 6 10:36 AM  OCT 16, 2014
[h1]Skeptical Football: The Aaron Rodgers Enigma[/h1]
By BENJAMIN MORRIS

In 1994, I had only been watching the NFL for a couple of years. I lived in Hawaii, where the closest thing to a home team we had was the Pro Bowl  — which pretty much made me a Dallas Cowboys fan. I griped when it seemed like the Miami Dolphins were on TV every week.

But that changed on Nov. 27, when I watched the Dolphins come back from a 17-0 third-quarter deficit against the New York Jets, culminating with Dan Marino’s legendary “Clock, Clock, Clock”  play with 30 seconds left that led to the game-winning touchdown. It made me a Dolphins fan for life.[sup]1[/sup]  It blew my young mind.

Marino’s fake-spike and pass to the end zone was thrilling and unexpected, but it made so much sense! After getting a first down with little time left, teams always spiked the ball. This is something that an ideal team would never do, as it would always have its next play ready. Yet it was so routine that defenses mostly took the play off, something the Dolphins eagerly exploited. This was the moment at which my long journey toward skeptical sports analysis began.[sup]2[/sup]

As my obsession with football increased, my passion for the Dolphins did as well.[sup]3[/sup]  But in the decades since, I’ve had my heart broken one too manytimes, and I’ve become numb to Dolphins results.

For a few minutes on Sunday, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers brought those feelings back. With 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter and trailing by four points against the — my! — Miami Dolphins, Rodgers completed a pass inbounds. He rushed to the line and snapped the ball with 13 seconds left, on what everyone seemed to think was going to be a spike — he was selling it so hard he deserved a Razzie[sup]4[/sup]  — but it wasn’t. Rodgers flung the pass down the right sideline to Davante Adams, and Adams ran it out of bounds at the 4-yard line. First-and-goal, seconds remaining.

The Dolphins took a timeout, and in the minute or so between that completion and their final play, I was a young Dolphins fanatic, hoping that I wouldn’t have my heart broken again. On the next play Rodgers threw a game-winning touchdown.

Aaron Rodgers is something of an enigma. I’ve written about him severaltimes  before, pointing out that he’s statistically one of the best quarterbacks in football — maybe ever — but he takes few risks when his team is down and rarely leads the Packers to comeback victories.

But with this win against the Dolphins, along with his Week 2 comeback against the Jets, it appeared my theory of Rodgers was on shaky ground. So I decided to look into his comeback conundrum more deeply — was it due to bad play? Or bad luck? Bad defense? Something else? Nothing at all?

In a surprise, I found that Rodgers actually has a history of being great in comeback situations like the one he faced against the Dolphins. In the fourth quarter, with his team needing a touchdown to tie or take the lead (that is, down 4 points to 8 points), only Peyton Manning  has led his team to a higher percentage of touchdown drives:

So bravo, Aaron. The Hacker Gods, who rule over this terrestrial simulation from their higher order reality much as Odin rules over Midgard from his perch in Valhalla, did everything in their power to get me to recognize your brilliance. They’ve sent me the ravens Huginn and Muninn  to change my thought and mind. Perhaps they’re even daring me to eat them. And perhaps someday I will, but not today.
[h2]Chart of the week[/h2]
While I applaud Rodgers’s fourth-quarter driving efforts, breaking down his game more thoroughly has made me more convinced that he’s too cautious.

For this chart, I’ve taken quarterback drives in the second half of games and broken them down into four categories: 1) games in which the quarterback’s team is more than a touchdown behind (down 9 or more points); 2) games in which the quarterback’s team needs a touchdown to tie or take the lead (down 4 to 8 points); 3) games in which the two teams are within a field goal of each other; and 4) games in which the quarterback’s team is ahead by 4 points or more. I’ve then plotted the percentage of such drives that end with a touchdown versus the percentage of those games won. (The bubble size is the number of drives.) I’ve highlighted the results for Rodgers and Manning, and noted their interception percentages.

A few things pop out of there:

• When leading by 4 or more points in the second half, both Rodgers (6.2 percent) and Manning (7.9 percent) throw a pretty low percentage of interceptions. About 30 percent of their drives end in touchdowns (29.8 percent and 29.5 percent, respectively) and both win at a very high rate (90.9 percent and 92.9 percent of the time, respectively).
• When the game is close — up or down 3 or fewer points — Manning’s interception rate drops a little (to 5.8 percent), while his touchdown percentage goes up a little (to 31.4 percent). Overall, Manning is still winning 77.7 percent of these games, while Rodgers’s (8.3 percent interception rate, 26.6 percent TD rate) winning percentage drops all the way down to 55.1 percent.
• When their teams are down 4 points to 8 points (i.e., they need a touchdown to win), both Rodgers’s and Manning’s TD rates shoot way up (Manning: 45.7 percent, Rodgers 40.0 percent). Manning’s interception rate also climbs (10.9 percent), while Rodgers’s drops (7.3 percent). Rodgers is winning a smaller share of these games (31.3 percent vs. Manning’s 44.9 percent), but it’s one of his best showings overall (and includes the scenarios in the intro above).
• It’s when the quarterbacks’ teams are down 9 or more points in the second half that you really see the difference. Peyton Manning throws interceptions on 15.6 percent of his drives, compared to Rodgers’ 8.1 percent. And for that, Manning is punished … by winning 28.6 percent of these games. Rodgers, meanwhile, wins 0 percent. That’s right, Rodgers has zero comebacks of 9 or more points in the second half. Ever.

Judging any QB in relation to Peyton Manning is setting him up for failure. But the starkness of the difference is pretty amazing. Rodgers has zero wins in 21 games while Manning has 14 wins in 49 games, with Manning throwing interceptions nearly twice as often. If you need one stat to demonstrate the gunslinger hypothesis (i.e. that you can throw too few interceptions as well as too many), that would probably be it.

 

[Chester McFloppy]

I ain't reading that ****.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

I ain't reading that ****.

I just chopped it down for you chucky.

 

[Chester McFloppy]

 

[proshares]

Is the 4th Quarter comeback leaders on Pro Football Reference accurate? Because Rodgers only has seven.

Comebacks led by quarterback.
Must be an offensive scoring drive in the 4th quarter, with the team trailing by one score, though not necessarily a drive to take the lead. Only games ending in a win or tie are included.

Rank Player (age), + - HOFer, Bold - Active 4QC Years Teams Games
1. Peyton Manning (3 40 1998-2014 2TM View Comebacks
2. Dan Marino+ 36 1983-1999 mia View Comebacks
3. John Elway+ 35 1983-1998 den View Comebacks
4. Tom Brady (37) 31 2000-2014 nwe View Comebacks
Joe Montana+ 31 1979-1994 2TM View Comebacks
6. Fran Tarkenton+ 30 1961-1978 2TM View Comebacks
Brett Favre 30 1991-2010 4TM View Comebacks
8. Vinny Testaverde 29 1987-2007 7TM View Comebacks
9. Johnny Unitas+ 27 1956-1973 2TM View Comebacks
10. Eli Manning (33) 26 2004-2014 nyg View Comebacks
Warren Moon+ 26 1984-2000 4TM View Comebacks
12. Dave Krieg 24 1980-1998 6TM View Comebacks
Dan Fouts+ 24 1973-1987 sdg View Comebacks
Drew Brees (35) 24 2001-2014 2TM View Comebacks
Drew Bledsoe 24 1993-2006 3TM View Comebacks
16. Ben Roethlisberger (32) 23 2004-2014 pit View Comebacks
17. Jim Kelly+ 22 1986-1996 buf View Comebacks
Tony Romo (34) 22 2004-2014 dal View Comebacks
19. Kerry Collins 21 1995-2011 6TM View Comebacks
Randall Cunningham 21 1985-2001 4TM View Comebacks
21. Jake Plummer 20 1997-2006 2TM View Comebacks
Jim Hart 20 1966-1984 2TM View Comebacks
Joe Ferguson 20 1973-1990 4TM View Comebacks
24. Joe Theismann 19 1974-1985 was View Comebacks
Bart Starr+ 19 1956-1971 gnb View Comebacks
Ken Stabler 19 1970-1984 3TM View Comebacks
Jim Plunkett 19 1971-1986 3TM View Comebacks
Charley Johnson 19 1961-1975 3TM View Comebacks
Boomer Esiason 19 1984-1997 3TM View Comebacks
Jake Delhomme 19 1999-2011 4TM View Comebacks
Steve DeBerg 19 1978-1998 6TM View Comebacks
John Brodie 19 1957-1973 sfo View Comebacks
Terry Bradshaw+ 19 1970-1983 pit View Comebacks
Steve Bartkowski 19 1975-1986 2TM View Comebacks
35. Matt Ryan (29) 18 2008-2014 atl View Comebacks
Philip Rivers (33) 18 2004-2014 sdg View Comebacks
Daryle Lamonica 18 1963-1974 2TM View Comebacks
Jon Kitna (42) 18 1997-2013 4TM View Comebacks
Sonny Jurgensen+ 18 1957-1974 2TM View Comebacks
40. Doug Williams 17 1978-1989 2TM View Comebacks
Brian Sipe 17 1974-1983 cle View Comebacks
Carson Palmer (35) 17 2004-2014 3TM View Comebacks
Steve McNair 17 1995-2007 2TM View Comebacks
Donovan McNabb 17 1999-2011 3TM View Comebacks
Ron Jaworski 17 1974-1989 4TM View Comebacks
Jay Cutler (31) 17 2006-2014 2TM View Comebacks
Mark Brunell 17 1994-2011 5TM View Comebacks
48. Matt Hasselbeck (39) 16 1999-2014 4TM View Comebacks
Bob Griese+ 16 1967-1980 mia View Comebacks
Rich Gannon 16 1987-2004 4TM View Comebacks
Roman Gabriel 16 1962-1977 2TM View Comebacks
Troy Aikman+ 16 1989-2000 dal View Comebacks
Tommy Kramer 16 1977-1990 2TM View Comebacks
Earl Morrall 16 1956-1976 6TM View Comebacks
Joe Namath+ 16 1965-1977 2TM View Comebacks
Neil O'Donnell 16 1991-2003 4TM View Comebacks
Jay Schroeder 16 1985-1994 4TM View Comebacks
58. Len Dawson+ 15 1957-1975 3TM View Comebacks
Trent Green 15 1997-2008 4TM View Comebacks
John Hadl 15 1962-1977 4TM View Comebacks
Jim Harbaugh 15 1987-2000 4TM View Comebacks
Bernie Kosar 15 1985-1996 3TM View Comebacks
Roger Staubach+ 15 1969-1979 dal View Comebacks
64. Trent Dilfer 14 1994-2007 5TM View Comebacks
Brad Johnson 14 1994-2008 4TM View Comebacks
Billy Kilmer 14 1961-1978 3TM View Comebacks
Babe Parilli 14 1952-1969 5TM View Comebacks
Dan Pastorini 14 1971-1983 4TM View Comebacks
Norm Snead 14 1961-1976 5TM View Comebacks
Steve Young+ 14 1985-1999 2TM View Comebacks
71. Steve Beuerlein 13 1988-2003 6TM View Comebacks
Marc Bulger 13 2002-2009 ram View Comebacks
Joe Flacco (29) 13 2008-2014 rav View Comebacks
Steve Grogan 13 1975-1990 nwe View Comebacks
Ken O'Brien 13 1984-1993 2TM View Comebacks
Michael Vick (34) 13 2001-2014 3TM View Comebacks
77. Jeff Blake 12 1992-2005 7TM View Comebacks
Aaron Brooks 12 2000-2006 2TM View Comebacks
Lynn Dickey 12 1971-1985 2TM View Comebacks
Jim Everett 12 1986-1997 3TM View Comebacks
Jeff Garcia 12 1999-2011 6TM View Comebacks
Craig Morton 12 1965-1982 3TM View Comebacks
Mike Phipps 12 1970-1981 2TM View Comebacks
Danny White 12 1976-1988 dal View Comebacks
85. Bobby Hebert 11 1985-1996 2TM View Comebacks
David Garrard (36) 11 2002-2013 2TM View Comebacks
Daunte Culpepper 11 1999-2009 4TM View Comebacks
Chris Chandler 11 1988-2004 7TM View Comebacks
George Blanda+ 11 1949-1975 4TM View Comebacks
Jack Kemp 11 1957-1969 3TM View Comebacks
Erik Kramer 11 1987-1999 4TM View Comebacks
Neil Lomax 11 1981-1988 crd View Comebacks
Alex Smith (30) 11 2005-2014 2TM View Comebacks
Phil Simms 11 1979-1993 nyg View Comebacks
Matt Schaub (33) 11 2004-2014 3TM View Comebacks
Jim McMahon 11 1982-1996 6TM View Comebacks
Archie Manning 11 1971-1984 3TM View Comebacks
98. Ken Anderson 10 1971-1986 cin View Comebacks
Bubby Brister 10 1986-2000 5TM View Comebacks
Ed Brown 10 1954-1965 3TM View Comebacks
Tim Couch 10 1999-2003 cle View Comebacks
Jeff Hostetler 10 1985-1997 3TM View Comebacks
Stan Humphries 10 1989-1997 2TM View Comebacks
Don Majkowski 10 1987-1996 3TM View Comebacks
Mark Sanchez (2 10 2009-2014 2TM View Comebacks
Matthew Stafford (26) 10 2009-2014 det View Comebacks
Richard Todd 10 1976-1985 2TM View Comebacks
Jack Trudeau 10 1986-1995 3TM View Comebacks
109. Brian Griese 9 1998-2008 4TM View Comebacks
Josh Freeman (26) 9 2009-2013 2TM View Comebacks
Tom Flores 9 1960-1969 3TM View Comebacks
Jay Fiedler 9 1995-2005 5TM View Comebacks
Charlie Batch 9 1998-2012 2TM View Comebacks
Chris Miller 9 1987-1999 3TM View Comebacks
Rodney Peete 9 1989-2004 6TM View Comebacks
Kordell Stewart 9 1995-2005 3TM View Comebacks
Billy Wade 9 1954-1966 2TM View Comebacks
Kurt Warner 9 1998-2009 3TM View Comebacks
Marc Wilson 9 1980-1990 2TM View Comebacks
Jim Zorn 9 1976-1987 3TM View Comebacks
121. Bert Jones 8 1973-1982 2TM View Comebacks
Elvis Grbac 8 1994-2001 3TM View Comebacks
Kent Graham 8 1992-2001 4TM View Comebacks
Jeff George 8 1990-2001 5TM View Comebacks
Gus Frerotte 8 1994-2008 7TM View Comebacks
Doug Flutie 8 1986-2005 4TM View Comebacks
Matt Cassel (32) 8 2005-2014 3TM View Comebacks
Greg Landry 8 1968-1984 3TM View Comebacks
Andrew Luck (25) 8 2012-2014 clt View Comebacks
Don Meredith 8 1960-1968 dal View Comebacks
Russell Wilson (26) 8 2012-2014 sea View Comebacks
Mark Rypien 8 1988-2001 5TM View Comebacks
Frank Ryan 8 1958-1970 3TM View Comebacks
Cam Newton (25) 8 2011-2014 car View Comebacks
Bill Nelsen 8 1963-1972 2TM View Comebacks
Bill Munson 8 1964-1979 5TM View Comebacks
Rick Mirer 8 1993-2003 5TM View Comebacks
138. Tony Eason 7 1983-1990 2TM View Comebacks
Andy Dalton (27) 7 2011-2014 cin View Comebacks
David Carr 7 2002-2012 4TM View Comebacks
Jason Campbell (33) 7 2006-2014 5TM View Comebacks
Rudy Bukich 7 1953-1968 4TM View Comebacks
Bob Avellini 7 1975-1984 chi View Comebacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick (32) 7 2005-2014 5TM View Comebacks
John Friesz 7 1990-2000 4TM View Comebacks
Rex Grossman (34) 7 2003-2013 3TM View Comebacks
Vince Young 7 2006-2011 2TM View Comebacks
Byron Leftwich 7 2003-2012 4TM View Comebacks
Kyle Orton (32) 7 2005-2014 5TM View Comebacks
Chad Pennington 7 2000-2010 2TM View Comebacks
Aaron Rodgers (31) 7 2005-2014 gnb View Comebacks
Don Strock 7 1974-1988 2TM View Comebacks

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Is the 4th Quarter comeback leaders on Pro Football Reference accurate? Because Rodgers only has seven.

Comebacks led by quarterback.
Must be an offensive scoring drive in the 4th quarter, with the team trailing by one score, though not necessarily a drive to take the lead. Only games ending in a win or tie are included.

Rank Player (age), + - HOFer, Bold - Active 4QC Years Teams Games
1. Peyton Manning (3 40 1998-2014 2TM View Comebacks
2. Dan Marino+ 36 1983-1999 mia View Comebacks
3. John Elway+ 35 1983-1998 den View Comebacks
4. Tom Brady (37) 31 2000-2014 nwe View Comebacks
Joe Montana+ 31 1979-1994 2TM View Comebacks
6. Fran Tarkenton+ 30 1961-1978 2TM View Comebacks
Brett Favre 30 1991-2010 4TM View Comebacks
8. Vinny Testaverde 29 1987-2007 7TM View Comebacks
9. Johnny Unitas+ 27 1956-1973 2TM Vie
Vince Young 7 2006-2011 2TM View Comebacks
Byron Leftwich 7 2003-2012 4TM View Comebacks
Kyle Orton (32) 7 2005-2014 5TM View Comebacks
Chad Pennington 7 2000-2010 2TM View Comebacks
Aaron Rodgers (31) 7 2005-2014 gnb View Comebacks
Don Strock 7 1974-1988 2TM View Comebacks

This is also from PFR

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=RodgAa00 

 

[do work son]

View media item 1222780

 

[do work son]

matt stafford has 18 picks in his last 9 home games

 

[SneakerProSr.]

matt stafford has 18 picks in his last 9 home games

And 9 of them bounced right off his receivers hands just like the last one.

 

[do work son]

matt stafford has 18 picks in his last 9 home games

And 9 of them bounced right off his receivers hands just like the last one.

Does he need to cut down on the picks or naw?