**Seattle Mariners 2024 Season Thread ** | ELIMINATED |

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Wouldnt mind either Ervin or Jiminez

Divish also said M's were never high on getting Jiminez though
 
ChampCruThik said:
 
Elpablo21 said:
How much you think he's worth? Nick and a piece or two?
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Franklin's a start especially if Cincy was able to move BP's unwanted contract.

What arm would you part with, Carson or Diaz?
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Diaz seems like he's slightly pegged above Carson. Prospect wise who's the bigger value, if any?
[h2]Alternatives to Nelson Cruz[/h2]
By Logan Davis@thirteenoftwo on Feb 7 2014, 9:09a 154

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not a giant - USA TODAY Sports

The Mariners have a lot of free agent money to spend and not a lot of free agents to spend it on. That doesn't mean it doesn't matter how they use their cash.

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I'm not going to explain again why Nelson Cruz - even at his newly lowered asking prices - would be a bad buy for the Mariners. Scott already did that. Twice. Also Dave Cameron, also twice. And Jeff Sullivan. And Tony Blengino. And Sports Nation, and Bleacher Report, and probably also the crazy cat lady who lives two houses down from your uncle. (You laugh, but she's still more credible than Bleacher Report.)

Personally, I think we Mariners bloggers have gotten into a bit of a rut with regards to Mr. Cruz. Sure, he looks like an overpay waiting to happen, and avoiding overpays is desirable for teams with limited budgets. But having good players is desirable, too. One of the more interesting pro-Cruz arguments I've seen is this: the free agent market is barren, and the Mariners need to improve so that they can capitalize on the short-term value window of the Cano signing. So why not splurge on a short-term deal? If they're not going to spend on Cruz, where else could they possibly put their money? Is it really worse to overpay than it is to not spend at all?

The answer is: that's a false dichotomy. In fact, one could even call it a false false dichotomy, since its central premise is that "spend inefficiently or spend efficiently" is a false dichotomy, and that central premise is, uh, false. (Give me a minute here; I just confused myself.) No matter how barren the free agent market may be, the Mariners definitely still have things that they can spend their money on. Things that aren't right-handed sluggers with high K rates and recent PED suspensions.

Let's say Cruz is going to cost something like 2/$20M. Here's a short list of things the Mariners could do with that cash - things that would be better for the organization than giving money to Nelson Cruz.
[h4]1. Sign Kendrys Morales[/h4]
Kendrys Morales is still out on the free agent market, and it's looking more and more like he might have to wait until June to get a job. That's dumb. Morales is a better fit for this team than Cruz is, and he's younger, and while the big knock against him is that he can't play the field, signing him instead of Cruz wouldn't actually make the defense any worse. Here, have a look:
Morales M's vRPos.Morales M's vLPos.Cruz M's vRPos.Cruz M's vLPos.
MoralesDHMoralesDHMorrisonDHCruzDH
Morrison1BHart1BHart1BHart1B
HartRFGutierrezRFCruzRFGutierrezRF
Either way, Justin Smoak would have to get the boot for the roster to make any sense. And either way, the right field defense would be mostly terrible. But let's be honest: is having Corey Hart in right field really any worse than having Nelson Cruz out there?

Now consider: Morales is a better hitter than Cruz. Morales is a younger hitter than Cruz. Morales is not coming off of a PED suspension like the one MLB just gave Cruz. Morales is a switch hitter, which means Safeco won't murder him as much as it'll murder Cruz. Morales would effectively cost the same draft pick as Cruz. Morales will almost certainly not be more expensive than Cruz.

So here's the question. Are all of those benefits actually outweighed by the fact that a Morales signing would force the Mariners into playing Corey Hart in the outfield? When the alternative gloveman is an absolute butcher himself? I certainly don't think so. Adding Kendrys Morales to the Mariners wouldn't exactly be a good move, from a roster-management standpoint, but if the team is interested in Nelson Cruz, why not pursue this superior alternative?

Now, I'll grant that the Mariners can't force Morales to re-sign with them - though I bet he'd prefer it to waiting until June to get a contract. (They'd prefer he not do that, too: if he has to wait to sign, they won't get their compensation pick.) There are reasons he might not want to come back. Maybe he hates the park, or maybe he hates Felix Hernandez, or maybe he thinks he looks dumb in teal. There are all sorts of reasons why this signing might not be possible. Luckily, the next option is somewhat easier to force players to assent to...
[h4]2. Trade with the Dodgers[/h4]
Remember way back at the beginning of the offseason, when everyone suddenly realized that the Dodgers had Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, Joc Pederson, and only three starting outfield jobs? Turns out they still have all of those guys! One of them's almost certainly going to get moved during spring training, and if the Mariners are willing to repurpose 2014's "Cruz money", they could get in on the action.

Sure, Ethier has platoon splits. Sure, Kemp has injuries. Sure, they're both stupidly expensive. But sending over a reasonable prospect could probably convince the Dodgers to part with a few tens of millions, and either Ethier or Kemp would immediately become Seattle's Best Outfielder. Much better than Cruz, is what I'm getting at.

Have a table:
SteamerGameswRC+DefWAR
Nelson Cruz130113-9.81.5
Matt Kemp127125-6.42.9
Andre Ethier104119-1.12.3
Steamer is pretty smart - one might say it knows players' weaknesses. Steamer knows about Kemp's fragility, which is why he's projected to miss 32 games. It knows about Ethier's platoon splits and his ankle, which is why he's projected for a below-career-average wRC+ and a limited number of plate appearances.

But Steamer also knows that Nelson Cruz has a weakness of his own: he's Nelson Cruz. And the two Dodgers, despite their warts, are thus preferable in the extreme.

...OK, so maybe trades aren't your thing. Maybe you think the Mariners should be looking more internally. Well...
[h4]3. Extend Kyle Seager[/h4]
The time to give Kyle Seager a long-term contract is now. Actually, it was a week ago, before Freddie Freeman signed his precedent-setting extension, but "now" is close enough. Scott wrote about this in July, and though Seager fell off a cliff in the second half of the season, that could actually work as a point in the Mariners' favor to drive down his price. Something in the backloaded 6/70 range might get it done.

######## START PULLQUOTE SNIPPET ######## TIPS: 1. This is a floated element, so place before the paragraph you'd like it to float beside

So it turns out there are actually a lot of ways to spend $20M
######## END SNIPPET ########
By paying a little extra cash next year, the Mariners could buy up one or two of Seager's free agent years, lock him up through his early thirties, and thus keep their best homegrown player close to home. Having Seager at reasonable prices in 2018 and 2019 would save the Mariners from having to spend huge dough on an equally talented third baseman to replace him. It wouldn't make the team playoff contenders in the present, but hey - neither would Nelson Cruz.

Actually... we don't have to limit our search for superior alternatives to just the major leagues. After all, the Mariners are much more than what happens in Safeco. Where else could they reallocate a little payroll cash?
[h4]4. Improve the Minors[/h4]
The Mariners have recently had an excellent minor league system, but it would be even better if they poured more money into player development, fitness, equipment, and health. For a front office that's so invested in the draft, Jack Z's regime has been markedly unsuccessful in developing actual major league players, and improved minor league conditions might help. And we're not just talking weight rooms, clubhouse food and analysis tools. I imagine the Cardinals' minor league player development staff have some pretty strong organizational loyalty... but I bet they're not $10,000,000 per year loyal.

The team could also get crackin' on the international development front, building improved facilities abroad and bringing in new scouts to replace the ingloriously-departed Bob Engel. The next Felix Hernandez is out there somewhere, and Nelson Cruz's money would go a lot further towards finding him than actually signing Nelson Cruz would. And hey, isn't it really annoying how the Mariners' minor leaguers always get their statistics all furcocted in that ridiculous bandbox High Desert? I wonder how the team might go about setting up in a new park.

...well, $20M couldn't hurt, right?

No. No it couldn't. Unless you give it to Nelson Cruz, that is.

Somebody stop me!
[h4]5. Hire More Analysts[/h4]
Sure, the Mariners have an analytics department, and sure, everyone in it is really smart. But how many dudes are there in that department? Like, six? (And by the way, how telling is it that they're all dudes? There's some serious gender imbalance up in this front office.) There's only so much that you can do with six dudes. Do you know how many baseball operations analysts you could hire for $10M per year over two years?

A lot, that's how many. Lately I've become convinced that investments in the front office almost always turn out better than investments on the field. It's cheaper to sign an analyst than a player, but the analyst has even bigger upside in terms of organizational impact. And since an analyst's contract is cheaper, there's also way, way less downside. Play it smart, Mariners. Pay for great analysis, not lousy baseball.
[h4]6. Pay Me to Stop Making Nelson Cruz Jokes (They'd Have To)[/h4]
...OK, OK, that's enough of that.

Look. Frequently, criticism is accused of not being sufficiently constructive. That's often kind of ******** - personally, I like to think I'm capable of figuring out how to fix my mistakes on my own - but it's also often kind of true. The tenth blog post begging the Mariners not to sign Nelson Cruz doesn't make the Mariners change their minds; it just makes everyone feel terrible about themselves.

Mariners blogosphere, let's not feel terrible about ourselves. Let's not be solely destructive in our posts on Nelson Cruz. Let's be constructive. Let's give the Mariners some ideas. Let's offer up some alternatives.

Here are my five.

Add your own in the comments below!
Click to expand...
 
Best option of the above I think is #3 - Extend Seager with re-signing Morales being second best.

I'm not hot on signing Cruz over re-signing Morales as I've mentioned before just because like the article suggests...Cruz is much more of a gamble. Either way, it looks like there will be a logjam at certain positions and Morales is certainly limited. I choose extending Seager over re-signing Morales only because I'd still like to see Smoak get one more chance and to see if he continues to improve as he has been.

I've gone cold on the idea of trading for Kemp as well. You can't have him and Gutierrez on the same roster in my opinion. Maybe if they were gauranteed health throughout the year, but you're risking a lot by entrusting those two to be reliable for the entire year. On top of that, the M's would have to trade someone to get Kemp and it's probably not someone that we'd like them to part with. Ethier is a bit intriguing, but again...At what price?

Improving the minors sounds amazing, but with all else remaning constant, what gaurantee is there that Z can suddenly start hitting on stars in the minors? For number 5...Less is more until you have people with a great track record. More of the same just wastes more money and clouds direction. I think these options are imperative, but not with the immediacy needed of this years club and of those options.
 
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A big step in getting the minors in order is having competent guys down there to run things and guys who don't micromanage every little tendency of prospects.

Do that, you can draft at the end of the round every year like the Cards and still have a loaded system.
 
SEATTLE -- Ask Lloyd McClendon about his potential lineup going into Spring Training and the new Mariners skipper laughs.

"I can tell you who'll be playing second base," McClendon said, knowing that spot is reserved for one Robinson Cano, the biggest addition to a team looking to force its way back into contention in the rugged American League West.

When pressed, McClendon acknowledges that Kyle Seager figures to man third base. And, yeah, you can surely use a pen when writing in the names Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma -- two of the AL's premier starters -- atop the rotation.

But beyond that? McClendon isn't kidding when he notes that competition is wide open, and it would be premature to project an accurate lineup or assign roles before he and his brand new coaching staff even set foot in the team's remodeled spring facility in Peoria, Ariz., for the start of camp this week.

Cano's arrival means former second baseman Nick Franklin will now battle Brad Miller for the starting shortstop job. The signing of Corey Hart and trade for Logan Morrison created options in the outfield and at designated hitter, as well as competition for Justin Smoak at first base.

While Mike Zunino and John Buck appear fairly set at catcher, the outfield will be determined this spring, as will the bullpen and back end of the rotation. Such competition is welcomed by McClendon, who continually notes that it takes thoroughbreds to win, and he's eager to let the races begin.

Seattle hasn't had a winning season since 2009, and its most recent playoff appearance came in '01, but a promising young core of players accumulated by general manager Jack Zduriencik has now arrived, and the club felt it was time to add a bonafide star to that mix with the signing of Cano for $240 million over 10 years.

McClendon spent the past eight years as a coach on Jim Leyland's staff with the Tigers, and he sees many similarities to the situation he walked into there in 2006. Indeed, the '05 Tigers had the same 71-91 record as Seattle achieved last year. And that '06 club wound up winning 95 games and going to the World Series.

McClendon isn't predicting such a magical turnaround, but he does plan to employ much the same approach as Leyland, with a heavy emphasis on strong, fundamental baseball and a quiet confidence in his players that helps them perform to the best of their abilities.

"This franchise has been knocked down," McClendon said. "We've been on the mat quite some time. It's time for us to get up."

Pitchers and catchers report

Wednesday

Full squad reports

Feb. 17

First Spring Training game

Home vs. Padres, Feb. 27 at 12:05 p.m. PT

Opening Day

At Anaheim vs. Angels, March 31 at 7:05 p.m. PT

Triple play: Three questions that need answers

1. How much can Cano carry?
The Mariners made the biggest splash in the Majors this winter with the signing of Cano, stealing the top free agent on the market away from the Yankees. But it will take more than one man to continue turning around an offense that ranked 12th in the AL in scoring last year after finishing last in the league the previous four seasons. It will be interesting to see how Cano reacts to the expectations of his mega-contract as well as being the center of attention and a focal point of scrutiny if the team doesn't do well. But the biggest help for all that will be if the Mariners aid Cano by playing well as a team and providing him support in the lineup, which is why newcomers Hart and Morrison and returnees like Seager, Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders must step up and be consistently productive over the course of the season as well.

2. Felix, Iwakuma and … then what?
The Mariners top their rotation with two of the premier starters in baseball in Hernandez and Iwakuma, who finished third in the AL Cy Young Award voting last year. Those two combined to go 26-16 in 2013, while the rest of the pitchers were 45-72. Not all of that fell on the rotation, but that's where it starts, and McClendon is going to sort through a host of options this spring. McClendon expects prize prospect Taijuan Walker to make the rotation, and veteran Scott Baker will get every chance to show he's recovered from 2012 Tommy John surgery. Also in the hunt are rookie southpaw James Paxton and young right-handers Erasmo Ramirez, Brandon Maurer and Blake Beavan.

3. How far left will the Mariners lean?
How critical are Hart's knees to the Mariners' plans? The two-time All-Star is one of the only right-handed-hitting options currently at McClendon's disposal, and the veteran missed all of last year after having microfracture surgery on both knees. The Mariners need Hart in the lineup somewhere -- preferably outfield or DH -- to provide some lineup balance. Adding Cano was huge, but Seattle now has an infield with lefties at second, short (Miller) and third (Seager), while outfielders Ackley, Saunders and Morrison are also southpaws. Unless Franklin Gutierrez can hold a starting role in the outfield, Zunino will be the only right-handed regular at this point, while Smoak is a switch-hitter. Franklin is another switch-hitting option if he can beat out Miller at short.

2013 record
71-91, fourth in the AL West

Projected batting order
1. LF Dustin Ackley:
.253 BA, .319 OBP, .341 SLG, 4 HR, 31 RBIs in 2013
2. 3B Kyle Seager:
.260 BA, .338 OBP, .426 SLG, 22 HR, 69 RBIs in 2013
3. 2B Robinson Cano:
.314 BA, .383 OBP, .516 SLG, 27 HR, 107 RBIs in 2013
4. DH Corey Hart:
Did not play in 2013
5. 1B Justin Smoak:
.238 BA, .334 OBP, .412 SLG, 20 HR, 50 RBIs in 2013
6. CF Michael Saunders:
.236 BA, .323 OBP, .397 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBIs in 2013
7. RF Logan Morrison:
.242 BA, .333 OBP, .375 SLG, 6 HR, 36 RBIs in 2013
8. C Mike Zunino:
.214 BA, .290 OBP, .329 SLG, 5 HR, 14 RBIs in 2013
9. SS Brad Miller:
.265 BA, .318 OBP, .418 SLG, 8 HR, 36 RBIs in 2013

Projected rotation
1. RHP Felix Hernandez, 12-19, 3.04 ERA in 2013
2. RHP Hisashi Iwakuma, 14-6, 2.66 ERA in 2013
3. RHP Taijuan Walker, 1-0, 3.60 ERA in 2013
4. RHP Erasmo Ramirez, 5-3, 4.98 ERA in 2013
5. RHP Scott Baker, 0-0, 3.60 ERA in 2013

Projected bullpen
Closer: Fernando Rodney, 37/45 saves, 3.38 ERA in 2013
RH setup man: Danny Farquhar, 16/20 saves, 4.20 ERA in 2013
LH setup man: Charlie Furbush, 3.74 ERA in 2013

The new guys
Cano: One player can't turn around a team on his own, but the Mariners are putting a lot of faith -- and cash -- on Cano being an impact player in the middle of their lineup for years to come. The five-time All-Star was durable and productive in his Yankees career and now gets the chance to show what he can do to help the Mariners.

Hart: Seattle needs the two-time Brewers All-Star to provide protection behind Cano, and Hart is more than capable, if he can stay healthy. That's a big if, after Hart missed all of last season with knee problems, but the Mariners feel he can DH and play some first base and possibly outfield while adding a needed right-handed bat to the lineup.

Morrison: Acquired by trade from the Marlins, Morrison is another outfielder/first baseman who has dealt with knee issues the past two seasons. Once regarded as a top prospect in Miami, LoMo will be looking to put his career back on track in a new league at the opposite corner of the country.

Baker: Signed to a low-risk, one-year Minor League deal, Baker could be a key addition if he returns to the productive starter who solidified the Twins' rotation from 2007-11. He had Tommy John surgery in '12 and pitched just three games last September for the Cubs. However, Baker threw well in those outings and has a good chance to earn a rotation spot if he's healthy this spring.

Buck: Seattle needed a veteran behind the plate to complement young Zunino, and Buck seems a perfect fit, with the ability to help mentor a young staff and also provide some punch off the bench and in a backup role.

Willie Bloomquist: The versatile Bloomquist returns for a second stint with the Mariners and gives McClendon backup options in both the infield and outfield as a right-handed bat with a solid glove and leadership qualities.

Rodney: The 36-year-old closer hasn't officially signed yet, but has a two-year deal pending the completion of a physical this week in Arizona. His arrival will help solidify the back end of the bullpen by allowing Farquhar and Tom Wilhelmsen to push back to right-handed setup roles, while adding experience and another power arm to what was an inexperienced relief corps.

Prospects to watch
Walker: One of the premier right-handed prospects in baseball, Walker looked strong in three late-season starts last year, and McClendon has already said he'll be disappointed if the 21-year-old doesn't grab a starting job this spring.

Paxton: After struggling with his consistency in the Minors, Paxton broke into the big leagues in impressive fashion, as he went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four September starts against very good competition (the Rays, Tigers, Cardinals and Royals). The 25-year-old could very well earn a starting job this spring, though it remains to be seen if the Mariners want to open the year with two rookies in the rotation.

RHPs Dominic Leone and Carson Smith: With Carter Capps traded away and Stephen Pryor coming back from shoulder surgery, Smith and Leone are next in line as promising young power arms who put up impressive seasons at Double-A Jackson last year. Rodney's arrival likely lessens their immediate chances, but both are highly regarded and could be close.

On the rebound
Gutierrez: The Mariners re-signed Gutierrez to a $1 million deal after his four-year, $19 million contract expired, but he'll need to prove himself healthy to earn a roster spot after playing just 173 of the team's 486 games over the past three years due to a host of injuries and illness. But Seattle could use his right-handed bat and defensive abilities, so if he has overcome his issues -- he's now on medication to deal with an inflammatory condition called ankylosing spondylitis -- he could find his way back into a helpful role.

Pryor: The hard-throwing reliever missed all but seven games last season and isn't expected back until close to midseason after undergoing shoulder surgery. But he was one of the team's most promising young bullpen arms coming up and would be a huge boost if he could return at full strength at some point this year.

Long gone
DH Kendrys Morales: The switch-hitter filled a key role in 2013 as a dependable middle-of-the-order bat, hitting .277 with 23 homers and 80 RBIs. But he turned down a one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer and Seattle opted to fill the DH role with Hart, while Morales remains unsigned while seeking a multiyear deal on the free-agent market.

OF Raul Ibanez: The 41-year-old veteran provided a nice power boost with 29 home runs and 65 RBIs last season, though he tailed off significantly with just five homers and nine RBIs after the All-Star break. The Mariners wanted to get more athletic in the outfield, so Ibanez will look to extend his career one more year as a DH with the Angels.

LHP Joe Saunders: The veteran southpaw worked as Seattle's No. 3 starter all last season, but allowed the second-most hits in the Majors and the highest batting average against at .311, while going 11-16 with a 5.26 ERA.
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http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/new...md=20140210&content_id=67479596&vkey=news_sea
 
Proshares said:
A big step in getting the minors in order is having competent guys down there to run things and guys who don't micromanage every little tendency of prospects.

Do that, you can draft at the end of the round every year like the Cards and still have a loaded system.
Click to expand...

Without a doubt. Completely agree with this approach in terms of running an organization. Only way to go.


I don't think I knew the M's signed Scott Baker. :lol Veteran-ish presence, but a middling ceiling. But because of his experience in the Majors coupled with the potential of pitching in Safeco might make for something close to a solid starter.
 
I think we all as fans glossed over the Baker deal, we've seen this before
ohwell.gif


Speaking of trading with the Dodgers, some words about Nick.
 
• After the Mariners signed Robinson Cano, there was some expectation that Seattle might market its second-base incumbent, Nick Franklin, in a trade. Last year, Franklin -- a first-round pick in 2009 -- had mixed results at the plate (33 extra-base hits, including 12 homers, in 412 plate appearances).

But Franklin also hit .225, with a .303 on-base percentage, and had 113 strikeouts in 102 games.

Given that performance, I asked some evaluators how they view Franklin, who turns 23 in early March, and what the best approach the Mariners could take with him might be.

Their feedback:

“I like Franklin -- don't love him,” emailed a longtime evaluator. “Have to give him credit for track record and more power than his body would suggest. I think the Dodgers are a good fit, but the Mariners likely won't trade him unless they can fill a specific need. They could still option Franklin and be patient with respect to a trade.”

From a front-office evaluator: “Franklin to me represents extreme risk because of his excessive strikeout ratio. It has always been high, and he's not a terrific athlete either, and had to move from shortstop to second base, and may have to move to the outfield potentially. The best thing the Mariners can do with Franklin is hold on to him, hope he rakes in the PCL and try to include him in a deal for something they want this summer. Robinson Cano, Brad Miller, and Kyle Seager aren't going anywhere.”
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Ryan Divish @RyanDivish
Iwakuma diagnosed with a strained tendon in his hand. Won't throw for 4 to 6 weeks.
 
Sounds about right.  At least he can still train for fitness and whatnot.

Santana then?
 
SinnerP said:
Sounds about right.  At least he can still train for fitness and whatnot.

Santana then?
Click to expand...
Jays have been the favorite for Santana. They only have to give up #49 for pick compensation because their two first rounders are protected. In comparison, Baltimore has to give up #17.
 
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