Law: Yusei Kikuchi gives Mariners some credibility in midst of rebuild
Yusei Kikuchi, 27, is coming off two solid seasons with the Seibu Lions. Kyodo/AP Images
Jan 2, 2019
-
Keith LawESPN Senior Writer
The
Seattle Mariners have been tearing down their major league roster this winter, so it was a modest surprise to hear they'd won the bidding for NPB star Yusei Kikuchi, posted this winter by the Seibu Lions, as he's ready right now and could help a team looking to contend in 2019. He may not push the Mariners toward a playoff berth any time soon, but he should make them a better team this season, and if he comes close to the performance he showed in Japan he should provide a nice boost for the team at the gate as well.
Kikuchi was one of the best pitchers in NPB as recently as 2017, when he led the Pacific League in ERA and innings pitched while finishing second in strikeouts, and even in an off year in 2018 still showed above-average stuff. He was sitting at 92-93 mph last year, touching 96-97 but no longer pitching there, with a plus slider and two more offspeed pitches at or near average, with above-average control. His last two seasons in NPB were the best of his career as he has walked fewer batters and struck out more, while also posting his two highest innings-pitched totals. It's No. 2 starter stuff if he stays healthy.
That's a big if, however, as Kikuchi has a history of shoulder problems. He missed several starts last year with shoulder stiffness, at least the third time in his eight-year career that a shoulder issue has caused him to miss time. His delivery isn't helping, as his arm is very late relative to when his front leg lands, and that puts more stress on a pitcher's shoulder. Kikuchi has made 24 or more starts only once in his NPB career and has never made more than 26, so the Mariners will have to plan to skip him in the rotation a few times, or even have him spend some time in long relief or otherwise manage his workload to try to keep him healthy.
The Mariners' rotation had some depth before the Kikuchi signing but no real ceiling, and Kikuchi would be their nominal No. 1 starter if you could pencil him in for 30 starts.
Marco Gonzales, fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, had a breakout season with a 4.00 ERA/3.43 FIP, and he seems like the one returning starter on whom Seattle can rely for both innings and production.
Mike Leake can provide innings but doesn't miss bats or get ground balls like he needs to do;
Wade LeBlanc is likely to turn back into a pumpkin any minute now; and
Felix Hernandez has been floating a little above replacement level for three years now, with 2018 the worst of his career.
Kikuchi doesn't replace any of those guys but pushes them each back a spot in the rotation while he's in it, and if the Mariners want to add
Justus Sheffield to their rotation this year, they can do so without relying on him to come in and make 25 starts as a rookie. The Mariners aren't going to the playoffs in 2019 -- they're probably going to lose 90-plus games, between the rebuild and the competition in the AL West -- but they'll be better to watch while Kikuchi is there, and if they get 130-140 innings and 25 or so starts out of him, that would be a successful first year.
The contract itself shields the Mariners from some injury risk while giving them the chance to capture upside if Kikuchi meets or exceeds expectations. He gets $43 million from 2019 through 2021, and then one of three things can happen. The Mariners can pick up a four-year club option that pays him $66 million more from 2022 to 2025. If they decline the option, Kikuchi can pick up a one-year player option for 2022 at $13 million; or both sides could decline and Kikuchi could head to free agency, with the Mariners able to make a qualifying offer.
The downside risk for the team is obvious: If Kikuchi suffers a more serious shoulder injury early in the deal, they're out a lot of cash. But they at least have some real upside potential here if he stays healthy and pitches like a No. 2, as expected, for several years, and then would still be with the Mariners when they project to be competitive again. It's refreshing to see a team still spend money to field a better club as they start to rebuild, and to see a team recognize that it might be acquiring a player who'll help them when they're good again.