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The Official NBA Season Thread: SFA Prevails
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by pmatic,
- Start date
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Yo these are crack. Most definitely anticipated something like this being released last night.
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RUH ROH
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I know you sad. I’m not even a Russ fan, but they did him dirty.
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Good to see you
Welp no time get that back on my eagles sunday
Sixers on the ****list of betting atm aint touching them friday **** em
Time to roll another one up
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goodnight, sweet prince 
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Tobias not NBA talent.
Bron got the record.
Can we consolidate now?
Bron got the record.
Can we consolidate now?
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jpzx
Supporter
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^
MVP
Supporter
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I am. It sucks. A lot of outsourced blame given to him when the 2 best players couldn't stay healthy. He definitely wasn't blameless but the vitriol his hometown had for him is just sad more than anything. I hope he lands in a good situation.
elpablo21
Supporter
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Already posted
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He was having so much fun year one when people thought it was just growing pains and finding rhythm and building chemistry.goodnight, sweet prince
'getting to know each other and how each other plays.'
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Westbrook went from beloved in LA to universally hated quite swiftly
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Thibs is gonna love Josh Hart.
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NBA trade grades: Who won the KD blockbuster and every deadline deal?
ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton is handing out grades for the biggest moves, including monster trades for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Feb. 8: Lakers move Russell Westbrook in three-team deal
Lakers get: Guards Malik Beasley and D'Angelo Russell, forward/center Jarred VanderbiltTimberwolves get: Guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Mike Conley Jr., 2024 second-round pick (via lower of Memphis and Washington), 2025 and 2026 second-round picks (via Utah)
Jazz get: Guard Russell Westbrook, forward Juan Toscano-Anderson, center Damian Jones, 2027 first-round pick (via Lakers, top-4 protected)
Los Angeles Lakers: B
There's simple math to explain when it comes to why this trade helps the Lakers. Westbrook had averaged 28.7 minutes per game for them this season off the bench. Russell was averaging 32.9 MPG for the Timberwolves as their starting point guard, while Beasley (26.
and Vanderbilt (24.1) were both key rotation players for the Jazz.Combined, the three newcomers have played 56 minutes a night more than Westbrook. That's up to 56 minutes the Lakers have been giving mostly to players making the veteran's minimum, the price they've paid for swapping two starters (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma) and a third rotation player (Montrezl Harrell) to the Washington Wizards for Westbrook in the summer of 2021.
The timing of this trade just as the Lakers get as healthy as they've been all season means coach Darvin Ham is going to have the happy problem of figuring out who not to play among a whopping 12 players averaging at least 20 minutes thus far. None of the three players the Lakers are adding are stars. So long as Anthony Davis and LeBron James are healthy, they don't necessarily need another star. After prioritizing shot creation in a series of transactions dating back to trading Danny Green and a first-round pick for Dennis Schroder and culminating with the ill-fated Westbrook deal, the Lakers finally focused more on the shooting needed to support AD and LeBron on offense.
In particular, Beasley is a dramatic shooting upgrade because of his high-volume attempts. Since being traded to Minnesota three years ago at the deadline, Beasley has never averaged fewer than eight 3-point attempts per game. As a result, although Beasley's accuracy on 3s (38% career, down to 36% this season) is more good than great, his volume is hard to top. From the start of the 2021-22 season to now, just two players (Stephen Curry and Buddy Hield) have made more 3s than Beasley's 409.
Remarkably, only one player previously on the Lakers has made even half as many 3s during that span: LeBron himself, with 258. Russell (294) also tops that total. We know how dangerous a formula James plus shooting has been historically, and the Lakers are much closer to that ideal with Beasley and Russell.
Russell's recent role change makes him a better fit in L.A. He's taken a step back in the Minnesota offense despite the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns much of the season due to injury. Russell's 23% usage rate would be the lowest mark in his career, and though he still led the Timberwolves in time of possession overall (5.6 minutes per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats), Anthony Edwards has moved a hair ahead of him since the calendar turned to 2023.
With Edwards taking on more of the shot-creation load, Russell has been finding easier opportunities to score. Just 60% of his shot attempts this season have come after more than two seconds with the ball, per analysis of data from NBA Advanced Stats, down from 70%-plus in his first two full seasons in Minnesota. In turn, Russell's 57% effective field-goal percentage on those self-created shots is the first time in his career he's surpassed 50% on them.
Overall, Russell is quietly enjoying far and away the most efficient offensive season of his career. His .604 true shooting percentage would blow away his previous career high of .556, during 2019-20. Looking at shot-quality data from Second Spectrum confirms Russell's shot diet this season has been the easiest of his career.
So while some regression should be expected -- his shot making is also the best he's ever enjoyed -- there's reason to believe Russell is morphing into the sort of role player who could share ballhandling duties with LeBron but also be dangerous playing off the ball.
It will be interesting to see how Ham uses Vanderbilt, who's started 108 of the 126 games he's played the past two seasons but might be the Lakers' fourth big man at full strength. Vanderbilt has added a modicum of stretch to his game this year, hitting 19 3-pointers at a 33% clip, so he can probably play with any of the Lakers' other post players and offers a better switching option at center than Thomas Bryant.
Perhaps Vanderbilt's greatest value to the Lakers is a modest salary: He carries a $4.4 million cap hit this season and they inherit a $4.7 million team option for 2023-24, when Beasley also has a reasonable team option ($16.5 million).
As compared to other possible permutations of a Lakers-Jazz trade, including ones with Bojan Bogdanovic last summer, this seems less likely to lift L.A. into contention this season. The Lakers will still probably have to make their playoff run through the play-in tournament, without the benefit of home-court advantage in any round.
Additionally, as much as Beasley and Russell upgrade the Lakers' shooting, playing them together with two big men and LeBron would force James into handling difficult defensive assignments on the perimeter. Ham will probably want to stagger their minutes as much as possible to keep one of his better defenders alongside them.
Lastly, the Lakers haven't really reduced their dependence on Davis staying healthy for the postseason. Adding Hachimura and Vanderbilt means they won't be nearly as small without Davis when he misses time, but asking them and Thomas Bryant to anchor the frontcourt against playoff competition is unrealistic.
The upside of this construction, however, is the Lakers look better going forward. None of the three players they've added is older than 26 (Russell turns 27 later this month), meaning they're in their prime rather than losing value over time like Bogdanovic and Conley. The Lakers retain their 2029 first-round pick to use in trade down the road, and -- after potentially swapping with the New Orleans Pelicans -- they'll be able to trade this year's first-rounder as soon as it's made.
By contrast to pathways that saw the Lakers either trade everything for a third star (like Kyrie Irving) or save their cap space to sign a player for $30-plus million this summer, splitting Westbrook's $47 million salary three ways gives the Lakers more tradeable contracts down the road. Depending on ownership's willingness to spend next season, when the Lakers will be subject to the more punitive repeater tax, they could enhance their flexibility by flipping Beverley for a younger player in a separate trade.
The biggest pitfall for the Lakers is the same thing the Timberwolves avoided with this trade: falling into the Bird Rights trap of overpaying Russell because they can't replace his production in free agency. A Russell contract too big to trade without needing to include draft compensation to take it on would leave the Lakers back in a similar spot as they were in with Westbrook.
For now, the Lakers turning Westbrook's salary into three contributors who can be part of their future without giving up both tradeable first-round picks makes this a positive step after too many moves backwards.
Minnesota Timberwolves: B-
If the Timberwolves were going to move on from Russell in favor of a more experienced hand at point guard, Conley was an obvious fit for both basketball and financial reasons. Let's start on the court.
Despite Russell's step back, the Timberwolves still faced the problem of how to distribute possessions when Towns returned to the lineup. Remember, Russell and Edwards have been the lone starters with above-average usage rates in Towns' absence. All three other typical starters -- Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels and Towns fill-in Kyle Anderson have finished fewer than 16% of the team's plays while on the court this season.
Towns' return will change that equation and make Conley's pass-first style a better match. This season has seen Conley's gradual evolution from dangerous scorer in his Memphis heyday to set-up point guard intensify. Conley's 16% usage rate is the lowest of his NBA career, down substantially from last year's above-average 21% usage. At the same time, Conley's 9.3 assists per 36 minutes are far better than his previous career high (7.3 during 2020-21, his lone All-Star season).
Finding chemistry midseason with the rest of the roster may take some time, but Conley already has plenty of it with Gobert. Adding a better pick-and-roll distributor should help Gobert, whose scoring per 36 minutes is down 1.8 points from last year.
This season, Gobert's screens have yielded just 0.95 points per chance when the shot has come directly from the pick-and-roll, per Second Spectrum tracking -- worse than the league average of 0.98 points per chance. During 2021-22, Gobert screening for Conley produced 1.01 points per chance. According to Second Spectrum, only Trae Young and Clint Capela ran more pick-and-rolls as a duo.
Financially, Conley's $24.4 million salary for 2023-24 gives Minnesota certainty as compared to rolling the dice with Russell in free agency and more flexibility than adding Kyle Lowry, who will make $29.7 million next season.
With Conley on the books, the Timberwolves enter the offseason $17 million below the projected luxury-tax line. Waiving forward Taurean Prince, whose $7.65 million salary is non-guaranteed through June 28 per ESPN's Bobby Marks, would increase that to about $24 million -- likely enough for Minnesota to both re-sign unrestricted free agent Naz Reid and utilize the non-taxpayer midlevel exception while avoiding the tax. (As a result, teams hoping to add Reid at the deadline look like losers of this move.)
In the long run, the outlook is less rosy. Conley's contract expires just as Edwards will begin what's certain to be a max rookie extension, which could escalate if he makes an All-NBA team next season. As compared to a new Russell contract that could have pushed them deep into the tax in 2024-25, that's a cheaper option. But Minnesota needs to figure out a point guard of the future since the 35-year-old Conley is merely a short-term solution.
Edwards emerging as a lead ballhandler looks like the best outcome for the Timberwolves. Even that would leave Minnesota needing to find another starter on the wing without a lot of options for doing so besides internal development. As a result, though swapping Russell for Conley makes sense in the short term, a team with a young star sending out a player in his prime for one in his mid-30s is hardly reason to cheer.
Utah Jazz: A-
Although the Jazz's perspective is most straightforward here -- a team that's rebuilding, despite its surprising success this season, traded three veterans for a large expiring contract and a draft pick in a move that improves its lottery odds -- there are a couple of interesting decisions to unpack.
First, the Jazz were willing to include the Timberwolves in this deal despite having four of their upcoming first-round picks and a swap, starting this June. Presumably, Minnesota feels this trade makes them better this season, hurting a draft pick that belongs to Utah. But the Jazz's long view likely holds that swapping young for old will hurt the Timberwolves down the road, improving the future picks they hold.
Second, and related, was Danny Ainge's apparent eagerness to land a lightly-protected (top-4) pick from the Lakers, taking one shot at a mid-lottery pick rather than trading Beasley, Conley and Vanderbilt separately, which presumably could have yielded a low-end first-rounder or two in addition to some second-rounders in the next couple of drafts. Instead, rebuilding Utah is improbably the team trading away second-round picks to make this deal happen.
Given how many picks Utah already has coming from the Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades, that high-upside approach makes sense to me rather than stockpiling increasing numbers of first-rounders.
Nobody would ever compare Ainge's style as a decision-maker to that of former Philadelphia 76ers executive Sam Hinkie. Like Hinkie, however, Ainge has repeatedly shown himself to have the longest view in the room to his teams' benefit.
Besides the pick, the other benefit of this trade for the Jazz is increasing their 2023 cap space. Taking back just one player (Jones) with 2023-24 salary gives Utah $30-plus million in cap space this summer. Extending or re-signing Jordan Clarkson, who is likely to decline his $14.3 million player option, would cut into that. Still, the Jazz should have plenty of room to add salary in exchange for even more draft picks.
As for Westbrook, it's hard to imagine he'll be asked to report to Salt Lake City. A buyout of Westbrook's contract makes sense for both sides, allowing Utah to recoup the salary added in this trade and Westbrook to pick his destination as a free agent.
rbk93
Supporter
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Not sure why I thought Hart was still a Pelican smh.
Really out the loop still.
Really out the loop still.
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Really like Minott...Hopefully he gets more run now.
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First part, done
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Welp guess Rose really going to the Bucks.
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