To all the NT Investors that play the stock market Vol. E*Trade ..

fortheloveofthegame8

fortheloveofthegame8

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Jun 24, 2004
After seeing a bunch of people on here recommend E*Trade a month or two ago .... I watched it and decided it was worth purchasing when it dropped below 5 inFebruary. Unfortunatley for me, it has dropped since and hit as low as $3.00 today. I don't regret my purchase, because I see it hitting 8-10 by the end of'09, but I'm thinking about buying more shares now that it is so low. To those of you that have purchased/are keeping an eye on it ... what are youplanning to do? Anyone else planning on buying more??

int-basic.chart


On a side note .... to everyone that follows the market, what are some stocks that you are looking at? I also have shares in Merrill Lynch (MER). I think thatthis is an excellent time to buy financials since most have their money tied up in real estate, which is doing rather poorly.
 
I dont know much but one of my professors told us stay away from e-trade as it is basically just going to stay low......he said buy Citigroup and Intell
 
That's an interesting question. I'm probably going to see where it is in a month or so and then decide if I will invest.
 
I think that Citigroup (C) looks like a good one ... but I'm not sure why Intel would make a good investment. Yeah, they are a strong company that islikely to be high demand for the next decade or so ... but their stock is around $20 now with it's highest in the last 2 years at $28. I could easily see a200-300% increase with either ETFC or C, but only a 25% with Intel. I appreciate all the input thus far though ....
 
The only reason etrade fell so much is because of the bear stearns fiasco. All the financials are feeling it today. Ben is talking lowering the interest rate afull percent tomorrow, so that prob will shake it up a little more.

I mean etrade is a long term investment right now. I wouldn't put money on it if u plan on cashing out in a couple months. For right now go with the goldand mining companies.
 
People are speculating that C has bottomed (finally). However, further readings have given C a target a bit lower, like $12.
MER claims they've gotten passed the difficult stage and should be rebounding.

Personally, I see your point as to why the financial sector is a good price...but I still wouldn't touch that sector with a 10 foot pole.

Their old price is arbitrary now because to me, those prices were built on the blasted CDO/Mortgage securities. So will they rebound to their peaks, or are weseeing a reset?

I'm sitting on the sidelines for this one, at least for a while.
 
I think financial sector is going to just have to write everything off. WM is gonna bottom at 7 or so and C will be close to 17 i think. After they writeeverything off they just have to build up the portfolios again and hopefully inflation calms down. Ben is going to cut the rate 100 points or so tomorrow. Letssee how the market reacts to this.
 
Like LazyJ said, I wouldn't touch financials with a 10 foot pole. Right now I've been loading up on blue-chippers. Unless the economy turns around inthe next few weeks, blue-chippers is where I'm staying. I'm still holding onto tech for the long haul.
 
I agree that Citi will probably bottom out around $12. I think I'll load up then. Even if it doesn't reach it's past peak of $55, I'll still beable to more than double my money if it reaches half of it's old peak.
 
why are people still buying financials? it is almost impossible to pick bottoms. NOBODY knows the book value of these firms. "ill think it will bottom at12, 15" where does that come from?

many analysts are calling for a $5 for C. the same people buying financials now are the same ones who said bear would bottom at 90, 60, 30 and so on. so youbought at what you thought was a good price. then you realize JPMorgan buys it for $2. TWO DOLLARS. there is no saying that any other bank on wall st right nowwill not end up like bear.

check todays charts for MF and IBKR. these banks are all counterparties to each other. What if e-trade was the other side to some BSC trades? then what?
 
good thread, I remember a lot of people hyping etrade when it was in the mid 4's. I wouldn't touch financials simply because I don't understandtheir balance sheets and what they are holding. I got in google at 500 and will buy more if it hits 400 which looks very likely.
 
I don't care of C bottoms further or not, I care more about their potential on becoming 50% of the stock price they could be.
For SOME of these financials, you can figure out their book value by compensating a weighted risk for their exposure to mortgage backed securities. If it was abig aspect of their business, then it'll be harder.

My perdiciton is nothing more than recycling analysts who have been pretty steady in their predictions.

The problem with some of these houses are they didn't have to HAVE THE cdo's and other crap ON their balance sheet. That's the biggest problem.
 
Originally Posted by illwill24

The only reason etrade fell so much is because of the bear stearns fiasco. All the financials are feeling it today. Ben is talking lowering the interest rate a full percent tomorrow, so that prob will shake it up a little more.

I mean etrade is a long term investment right now. I wouldn't put money on it if u plan on cashing out in a couple months. For right now go with the gold and mining companies.
Click to expand...

financials has been dropping like crazy since last year, yes a little upswing came up not too recently but they havent been doing well at all. Volitilitycreates opportunity, so eve though we still dont know if they have bottomed out at their current prices I would still get in it.
I dont know what sector to get into for any quick short term gains right now (has there really been ?), try the energy sector and anything that hasto do with renewable energy (water, solar, biomass, whatever floats your boat). The good thing about them is unlike gas and current forms of energy the pricefor these products will go down with each additional unit out there in the public, while prices will go up because of scarcity in the demand. People arejumping on that bandwagon right now, so get it.

damn i got mad off topic
 
Originally Posted by geronim04

im not an accounting guy, and you are. but when i see something like 500 million in a package of "synthetic collateralized debt obligations" named "Delta One" and then analyzing the third tranch of a floater pair bond, i dont know what in the world im actually looking at.

check this out..
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/17/news/economy/gothere/index.htm?postversion=2008031716
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/17/news/economy/gothere/index.htm?postversion=2008031716
Click to expand...

I agree with you on this.

The fact as a country, we are in huge consumer debt, and not all that debt is mortgages. Mortgage is the one that just cam home to roost. Sooner or laterother forms of consumer debt will hit. Consumer debt isn't infinitely sustainable.

Does anyone even know exactly and what type of consumer debt obligations these financial institutions hold? We don't even know the full extent of thefallout from the current situation. If more government regulation is on the way then expect even more problems as financials are forced to admit more bad debtthat they are holding.

The fact is with financials you never know exactly whats going on. Your information is only as good as what they provide and inferences that one makes andfinancials routinely hide, mislead, and cook numbers.

Finacials don't actually produce anything tangible. They depend on other people's success.
 
I would imagine you'll see some FASB interuprtations and such because of this. Basically, won't surprise me that banks will have more stringentreporting regulations because the way they could move CDOs on and off of the balance sheet.

Basically a Sarbanes Oxely, but for investment houses wouldn't surprise me.

The crazy part is how, this literally occurred over night. As soon a Standard and Poors rated a collection of these things as junk, man, did that start a fire.
 
i bought mine at 4.75 much like you and just yesterday bought a bunch more at 3 and change. i know it will go up eventually and when it does ill cash in. thisis a popular strategy amongst investors.
 
Originally Posted by LazyJ10

I would imagine you'll see some FASB interuprtations and such because of this. Basically, won't surprise me that banks will have more stringent reporting regulations because the way they could move CDOs on and off of the balance sheet.

Basically a Sarbanes Oxely, but for investment houses wouldn't surprise me.

The crazy part is how, this literally occurred over night. As soon a Standard and Poors rated a collection of these things as junk, man, did that start a fire.
Click to expand...

This occurred overnight because everybody knew the truth for a while now.

People making 60 or 75k a year buying 500k homes. Does that sound right to you?

3 -4 years ago my father and I used to have routine conversations about how ludicrous this all was. I'm not even joking, seriously. Sub 3,000 squarefoot home were going for 600k in our neighborhood. You'd need to be making at least 150k to afford something like that and only the top 5% of Americansearn that much. It didn't make any sense.
The same thing is occuring with other forms of debt but on smaller scale only because the loans are smaller. If tomorrow, minimum payments on CC'swere banned and one was required to either make a full payment or default on the loan , do you realize what would happen? That is the reason that they madepersonal bankruptcy much more difficult. It was not a coincidence that it took effect only a few years ago. Some very smart people realized that the sh** wouldhit the fan sooner rather than later.

Our economy is built on debt. That's not even hyperbole.
 
Originally Posted by LazyJ10

I don't care of C bottoms further or not, I care more about their potential on becoming 50% of the stock price they could be.
For SOME of these financials, you can figure out their book value by compensating a weighted risk for their exposure to mortgage backed securities. If it was a big aspect of their business, then it'll be harder.

My perdiciton is nothing more than recycling analysts who have been pretty steady in their predictions.

The problem with some of these houses are they didn't have to HAVE THE cdo's and other crap ON their balance sheet. That's the biggest problem.
Click to expand...

That's exactly what I'm talking about with financials. They are risky, but their risk comes with a high payout. I've already lost 40% of mymoney that I've invested in E*Trade, but I think that that company is worth more than $3, $5, or even $8 a share and I don't mind holding on to ituntil it reaches that level. Many of these companies have taken hits because of poor investments and a looming recession, but they will still be here in thefuture and will eventually rebound.
 
If you're looking to get started into investing, what are some good resources to pick up some knowledge and to keep up to date with current things going onthat might affect stocks, such as mergers etc.
 
This may be the beginnings of the Debt bubble bursting. The Fed is trying to stave it off by injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the economy. Funnythat M3 stats stopped being published a few years ago. Did they realize there was a good probability that something was going to happen? We don't knowexactly how much liquidity (i.e. inflation) is being pumped into the economy. By knowing how much is being loaned out we may have an estimate of really howmuch of that 41 trillion is bad debt. Without M3 it's all a guessing game.

0929.h2.jpg
 
Originally Posted by vkhoj

If you're looking to get started into investing, what are some good resources to pick up some knowledge and to keep up to date with current things going on that might affect stocks, such as mergers etc.
Click to expand...

Check out these 3 sites:

http://Investopedia.com .... This breaks down every type of investment and anything you can imagine with investing. They have tutorials,stock simulators, exam preparations, etc ...

Finance.yahoo.com .... The main page has articles and links about all thefinancial news that will keep you informed of events in the financial world. Also, the most important part of the site IMO is the have a "MessageBoard" for every stock symbol. For example: if you type "ETFC" and click "Message Board" on the left hand side of the page ... it willtake you to a message board of people discussing what they think will happen to the stock in the coming days, weeks, years, as well as all news within thecompany (new hires, inside buying, mergers, etc...)

cbsmarketwatch.com .... This is similar to yahoo finance, but without themessage board. The homepage has a bunch of articles about financial news.
 
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