I'm going with 15-32 at the end of January
18-35 come All-Star Break. Same record we went into ASG last year.
*Assuming no significant trade before All Star Break.
Hollinger's playoff odds has us at a projected 30 wins. That's a 40% win percentage the rest of the year, which is realistic. Tied for 5th worst.
Philly - 14 wins
Minny - 16 wins (I'm assuming that changes when Rubio, Pek come back for the second half, but don't see them pulling off more than 20 wins injuries or no injuries)
Knicks - 22 wins (They really stink, but I think they'll end up with a really good month somewhere, and get a few extra wins)
Magic - 29 wins (I think they end up a bit better than this. They've won 13 games in 35 games, hard to see only 16 in 48 games. 4-6 in last 10. 6-10 overall in December)
Hornets - 30 wins
Lakers - 30 wins
Denver, Sacramento, Detroit - 32 wins
40% win percentage for an entire season is 33 wins. We were never going to be .500, but .450 of 37 wins was absolute best case scenario before Nash & Randle went down.
No Nash, no Randle definitely moved us backwards. I thought Randle by All-Star Break to end of the season would have picked us up a handful of wins.
Our win % is .313. The .400 Hollinger prediction would take us to 30-52, a .366 final win %.
If we continued the .313 win % it is 16-17 wins in the last 50 games.
27 wins puts us at 4th worst record, and the likelihood of losing your pick is extremely small. Could happen, but the likelihood of 2 teams 5 or worse end up in the Top 3 is 17.2%, and still not sure it has happened yet.
How to we get to 27 wins and to 4th worst, (maybe even 3rd worst if Knicks have a decent month somewhere).
Have to trade Lin & Hill at the deadline. Hill most specifically. Neither of those 2 will be here next season. Lin because we have to build a team, and a backup PG is really insignificant to build a team. So many teams get by with league average PGs and get in the playoffs, and you can get those for $3mil or less. The marketing power of Lin will inflate his contract to $6mil.
Hill's $9mil Team Option could end up being poison to 2015 and building a team. I think we need to start getting everything in line, so in 2015 we can go to Kevin Durant and have a pitch that says "Look 2015-16 we were much improved, with you, we are a contender, have much of our starters and bench already figured out. And here out, we still have make moves to improve the team." If Hill is let go, and Davis declines player option, we have 6 players (draft picks not included). 6 roster space holds, and we have $30.6mil in cap space. Let's say we get lucky, get a Top 5 pick without trading Hill, and keep the Rockets pick. That's about $3mil less in cap. So now $27.6mil with 8 players + 4 cap holds. We keep Hill for 2015-16, that's now $18.6mil with 9 players + 3 cap holds.
That $18.6mil and we're missing a starting PG, SF... Backup Center, and probably a defensive wing on the bench.
Dragic would be top choice because he's good, entering into his prime, and has interest playing here. I also don't think he will stay with the Suns. Too many cooks in the kitchen at guard positions. He'll get probably $14mil first year of his deal (more than Bledsoe, but that's factoring in the rise in cap space. If cap was to stay stagnant, he'd probably be at $12mil.)
So Dragic at $14mil means we have only $5.3mil in cap space for 10 players + 2 cap holds. That gets us maybe Ed Davis back, if he stays for a discount of $1-2mil a year.
That gets us nowhere.
But having $27.6mil with 8 players + 4 cap holds..... That could get us Dragic, and have $13.6mil for the many Cs that are FAs. Including Hibbert, who has a game that will fit well with Randle and as a Center has stayed neck and neck with Dwight on defense (even with his bad Defensive Rebounding). And maybe being a Laker, and having Worthy around all the time could help him increase his efficiency on the offensive end.
Trading Hill for say Kendrick Perkins means that our bigs are
PF - Carlos Boozer , Ryan Kelly, Tarik Black
C - Ed Davis, Robert Sacre, Kendrick Perkins
That's immensely worse. Specifically from a rebounding and second chance points standpoint which has helped us stay in games. Also opens up more minutes for Kelly, who likely would fall into a black hole of minute-less games because Ed, Jordan & Carlos are all better players.
Trading Lin for scraps to a team that needs a PG (Toronto needs one and have contracts like Chuck Hayes, Tyler Hansbrough, Landy Fields to take on a contract like Lin's) means relying on Wayne Ellington, Ronnie Price, Jordan Clarkson for a majority of PG minutes. As bad as Lin has become, that's a disaster. But at least Clarkson may get 5 minutes of playing time.
Ellington, Price, Clarkson
Kobe, Fields
Wes, Nick Young
Boozer, Kelly, Black
Davis, Hayes, Sacre, Perkins
That team doesn't go 20-30 over the last 50 games, that team probably goes 14 to 16 - 34 to 36