2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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For me it's not about respect for the game, it's flat out, don't show us up like that, then ***** like a lil girl whenever someone does somethin you don't like, which Ortiz is known to do.

If that was #500 or something, or like Bonds hitting #73, etc, wanna dance a lil, I'm good with that.

He almost took 10 seconds to get to first base man. :lol :lol :lol


I'm fine with him doin that. Just like he gonna be fine when I drill him in the back the next two at bats. :hat
 
I'm with CP on this one. Not big on beaning guys, but when you hotdog it like that or worse, get ready to duck. The one thing that pisses me off the most though is these dudes that wanna charge the mound or talk **** when a pitch gets away from the hurler and plunks them. Not the ones that are going straight for their spine, but the breaking balls/cutters/2 seamers/etc that run in too much and get away from the pitcher.

I rather keep Thor than trade him for Tulo since that contract is atrocious. And he's 30 and has been injury prone..
 
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no problem with Ortiz bat flipping and strutting...and no problem if he gets beaned for it either
 
Hey we got Danny Valencia WATCH OUT BALTIMORE.



good trade need someone who can hit left handed pitching, we can take B-more we got a bunch of games against them at the end I think.
 
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I know money talks but why would you sign
a long term deal knowing that they aren't a winning franchise.
 
Tulo isn't going to the Mets. They won't take that contract and won't give up enough players.


I like players doing the bat flip but I'm tired of Ortiz and all his antics. Especially after all the crying and whining he does. When you got Joe Torre telling you to stop whining, it's time to be quiet and just play.
 
I wouldn't say it's his ego. He couldn't have foreseen how atrocious Colorado would have run everything into the ground the last few years. I'm guessing he thought him and Cargo could carry the load. I can't stress enough how horrific that franchise has been run since they made the series. From A ball to the majors.
 
Brett Gardner hits his second homer of the night off Darvish, Darvish just laughs.
 
Drew Storen has been pure filth this year. Love to see him bounce back like this.
 
400
 
Ballerific703 said:
Brett Gardner hits his second homer of the night off Darvish, Darvish just laughs.
Click to expand...

I love when random players own Aces :lol
No matter how great a pitcher, there's always that one random .270 singles hitter who bats .500 with multiple HRs against him :lol
 
erupt107th said:
Ballerific703 said:
Brett Gardner hits his second homer of the night off Darvish, Darvish just laughs.
Click to expand...

I love when random players own Aces :lol
No matter how great a pitcher, there's always that one random .270 singles hitter who bats .500 with multiple HRs against him :lol
Click to expand...

It's unbelievable that he's hit 3 HRs off him in the last week. I just think it's cool how Darvish isn't too serious. He's an ace but he laughs about everything. It looks like he's having fun.
 
What should the Marlins do?

The Miami Marlins have been a classic middling team this season: good at home, not so good on the road, and merely OK overall. Right now, they're 5½ games out in the National League wild-card race. But there are five teams ahead of them, and so their playoff odds stand at a slim 2.6 percent overall, according to FanGraphs.

As such, the Marlins aren't likely to make much noise over the next few days in advance of the trade deadline. They're not bad enough -- and don't have enough veteran talent -- to commence a fire sale, and yet their position in the standings leaves them in no position to be buyers. That's all fine, because the Marlins have built a decent core of young players that they should hold on to anyway.

Still, the team would be smart to sell off some spare parts to a few contenders, and add some talent for the future in the process. The thing is, they don't have a lot of spare parts to sell.

Baby fish
According to Baseball-Reference, the Marlins' pitching staff is the youngest in baseball. Nine of the 10 starting pitchers they have utilized this season are age 30 or younger. And things might get even more green from here: By the end of next season, the Marlins could have a rotation filled with five pitchers age 25 or younger (Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and one of Jacob Turner, Justin Nicolino or Jose Urena). They will undoubtedly be looking to firm up that fifth spot, especially with Fernandez unlikely to be ready at the start of 2015. In any event, next year's team could have a pretty good rotation.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are similarly "gumshoed" at the plate and in the field. They have the seventh-youngest group of position players in the bigs. Their outfield is particularly young: Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton are all age 24 or younger. It's a strong group -- one of the best in the league, surely -- and it's only going to get better.

Catcher won't be a position of strength the way the outfield will, but with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and the recently called up J.T. Realmuto, they should at least be solid behind the plate.

A shaky infield
The infield is where things get interesting for the Marlins. Their production there has either been supbar or unsustainable. For an example of the latter, let's talk about Casey McGehee. McGehee's 2014 season has been a great story so far; a year after playing in Japan, McGehee is batting .310/.376/.383.

Unfortunately, that spike in performance -- McGehee hit .217 in 114 games for the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates in 2012 -- has come largely as a result of luck. Only five players in the game are outperforming their expected batting average on balls in play more than McGehee.

[+] EnlargeMcGhee
AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
Casey McGehee, center, has been the Marlins' only valuable infielder in 2014.
The Marlins haven't been as lucky at the other infield positions. In fact, their struggles at second base, shortstop and third base are a big reason why the Marlins have been stuck in the middle of this season's elongated pack. Second baseman Derek Dietrich is the best of the bunch; he was essentially replacement level before he landed on the disabled list. He combines a league-average bat with a below-average glove. First baseman Garrett Jones has the same league-average bat, but he pairs it with a significantly below-average glove. And shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria is just not good at anything. In fact, it's hard to understand exactly why he has a starting job.

Prospects Colin Moran and Avery Romero might get to the majors eventually to aid the infield, but that probably won't happen this year or even next year.

Building for the future
In the meantime, the Marlins should be looking to net some long-term help for their infield this week, with McGehee being the primary piece they should be trying to move. His value will never be higher.

Steve Cishek is the other. The Marlins have a good bullpen, and that won't change if Cishek is dealt. Even if it does, the bullpen is supposed to be the final focus of attention in any rebuilding plan anyway, and good relief pitchers can be found via free agency every year. In the past two years, cheap effective relievers found in free agency have included Koji Uehara, Joakim Soria, Pat Neshek, Burke Badenhop and Jason Grilli. With a discerning eye, bullpen help is not hard to find. And so, if teams nibble on Cishek and Mike Dunn, the Marlins need to make them available and try to get back some infielders. They're not likely to find any franchise cornerstones, but given that their starting first baseman, second baseman and shortstop have combined for 0.2 WAR, any potentially solid players could provide a boost.

Trade Stanton?
If the Marlins hope to improve for their future, they don't have much to dangle. That's why Stanton's name continues to come up in trade talks, and why fans of other teams seem as interested in the 24-year-old outfielder's future as Marlins fans do.

The theory goes that because the Marlins likely won't be able to sign Stanton long-term, they should trade him and load up on prospects. There's merit to that notion. But the NL East has been soft of late, and if the Marlins can find a few more pieces to surround Stanton, they could make a legit run in 2015 and 2016 before Stanton hits free agency.

Another counterargument to trading Stanton is that doing so almost certainly means reversing the progress of their rebuilding operation and pushing the timeline to contend back another few years. With so many of their young players ready to contribute now, that's not really an optimal strategy. The team needs Stanton to be their center of gravity. They need him to be their linchpin as the top prospects develop around him.

The Marlins are in an interesting position. They have developed as much talent as possible internally over the past couple of years, and currently have a bevy of young talent either on the major league club or on the cusp of joining it. They're still not good enough to contend, but given how many good players they have on hand, that could change soon, especially if they manage to shore up the infield.

Given all the young players on the roster, acquiring talent will be difficult. They don't have a lot of guys they should be willing to trade who other teams will look at as valuable for the stretch run. Normally a team like this would dish an extra bat or arm to a contender. The Marlins don't have enough bats, and few tradable arms, so they -- unlike some of their middle-of-the-road-dwelling peers -- will likely stand pat.

And that's just fine. With the right moves over the next year-plus, the future in Miami can still be bright.

Marlins could be buyers at trade deadline.

Before you dismiss the notion that the Miami Marlins could be serious players in the market over the next few days, it's worth noting that after their wild comeback win over Washington on Monday, they are closer to their leader in their division -- six games behind -- than the Tampa Bay Rays, who are seven games behind the Baltimore Orioles.

Remember, too, that for all of his quirks and odd ballpark colors and home run sculpture, Miami owner Jeffrey Loria is an optimist at heart. And despite fielding teams with minimal payrolls, his expectations have always been high for his baseball operations employees. In 2003, he watched a bunch of youngsters named Josh Beckett, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Juan Pierre revive themselves in midseason and go on to win the World Series, and after it was over, Loria ran around the bases at Yankee Stadium. Loria is a dreamer, and staffers past and present talk about meetings in which they thought they would to be told to rebuild and cut their losses. Instead they walk away having been ordered, in so many words, to find a way to win.

It doesn't always make sense, but this is life in the Marlins' organization, and this is exactly what is happening now. They have played through the loss of ace Jose Fernandez, and on Monday, Mike Hill pronounced that the Marlins will not be sellers. Rival executives say Miami lurks in the trade market, searching for a starting pitcher who they can keep for more than the next two months.

The Nationals haven't run away with this division, in spite of the names they run out in their rotation, and neither have the Braves. The Marlins keep hanging around, and are an intriguing candidate to surprise the industry before Thursday's deadline.

Other trade stuff

[+] EnlargeJon Lester
Abelimages/Getty Images
Some MLB executives believe Red Sox starter Jon Lester will be traded before Thursday's deadline.
1. Executives who have dealt with the Red Sox believe they will trade Jon Lester (and others) before Thursday's deadline, because they can extract more value now than they would by taking a compensation draft pick if and when Lester signed with another team as a free agent in the fall. Boston is asking for a high-end prospect to anchor a deal that would involve other prospects.

A close friend of Lester believes there is no chance the left-hander will sign with the Red Sox now, and Boston added an exclamation point to their standing as sellers with a brutal, wipeout loss to the Blue Jays on Monday.

• Jayson Stark had a lot on Lester in Monday's Rumblings.

• David Ortiz says the Red Sox would be crazy to trade Lester.

To repeat: The only shot the Red Sox have to sign Lester would be a complete and total capitulation, flat-out surrender, like the Cole Hamels deal in Philadelphia, in which the Red Sox just about double their spring offer of $70 million. The union is closely watching this negotiation because Lester has a chance to join Max Scherzer as the most prominent free agents in the fall and push the salary ceiling upward.

2. We're now three days from the deadline and the Phillies have made no trades, despite being perceived as major sellers. Some teams that have dealt with the Phillies over the last week find it difficult to gain any kind of traction in conversation with Philadelphia, and they're not sure if the team is committed to moving some of their veterans.

And that is probably what it will take to turn over this roster, because of the dollars owed and the unusual contract options that so many of the players have -- a devotion to change, no matter the cost. We'll know by Thursday night if this is the path that the Phillies' leadership has taken.

• A.J. Burnett was lit up, as Matt Gelb writes. The future of the Phillies hinge on whether the team trades Cole Hamels, writes Tyler Kepner.

3. The Mariners are 11 games out in the division race in the AL West, and while they have had a ton of conversations with other clubs, it remains to be seen whether they will devote major resources to significantly upgrading the team for a shot at the one-game playoff -- and change in how the team is perceived among a fan base that drifted away from Safeco Field over the last decade.

• The Mariners continue to frustrate with the lack of run production.

4. Kurt Suzuki is not expected to re-sign with the Minnesota Twins before he hits the free agent market, and, at the same time, he's probably not going to be considered for a $15 million qualifying offer. So it would make sense for the Twins to look to move him. He is the only everyday catcher available, it appears, which makes him something of a specialty item, and there are very few teams seeking catching. If a contender loses a catcher to injury in the next 48 hours, Suzuki would become a natural alternative.

• Trade offers could come for the Twins, writes La Velle Neal.

5. The Pirates have a few more days to do some things. The prices are high.

6. Matt Kemp is a really big name and maybe he'll bounce back to be an elite player again, but his perceived value in the market is far below the $115 million he is owed. I asked two rival officials on different teams what they would give Kemp if he became a free agent today, and their numbers were almost identical. One said he would give Kemp -- who has an OPS of .775 and eight homers in 373 plate appearances, while grading out as a below-average defender -- a two-year deal for $16 million, total. The other said he would give him two years and $15 million, total.

If the Dodgers are going to move Kemp, rival officials say, their best chance might be to tie him to one of their high-end prospects -- and they would still need to eat tens of millions of dollars, in the way the Rangers ate about 40 percent of Alex Rodriguez's salary when they swapped him to the Yankees.

• The Dodgers' outfield may be crowded in a good way, writes Dylan Hernandez.

6a. The Dodgers continue to be viewed by rival teams as the club most likely to make a move for either Jon Lester or David Price, because of the must-win mantra of ownership and because they have the assets to consider a move on any player.

7. Because the Cubs need pitching to complete their rebuild and because they have high-end prospects, they have been constantly tied to the David Price trade talks. But in the end, what really has to happen for them to get Price is for the market to collapse back to them, somewhat in the way that Twins' efforts to trade Johan Santana regressed to the degree that it forced them to make a deal with the New York Mets.

Price will become a free agent after the 2015 season, timing that is not in concert with that of the Cubs, who aren't winning this year and probably won't win next year. Sure, they could theoretically offer a deal for Price around someone like Javier Baez, but in order to retain Price beyond next season, they'd have to pay him a whopper contract in the range of $140 million. It'd be more efficient for them to keep their prospects and sign a free agent in the fall, a Max Scherzer or Jon Lester.

If Price isn't traded in the next couple of days, however, the cost of dealing for Price could dip into a more acceptable range for the Cubs -- as it did for the Mets, with Santana.

8. Stephen Drew, like Cliff Lee, really has no trade deadline. He's making a high salary -- he's owed about $5 million for the rest of this season -- and is hitting .169 in 37 games, and the Red Sox could always move him through waivers. If somebody claimed him -- which would mean taking on a lot of money for a player hitting under .200 in July -- Boston could just let him go, and if he cleared waivers, the Red Sox could trade him in August.

9. Eduardo Encina writes about the Orioles' work leading up to the trade deadline.

10. The Dodgers traded for Darwin Barney. He's a nice fit because he'll give them coverage at shortstop and second base.

11. James Russell, among the left-handed relievers being discussed, prefers to be a starting pitcher, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

12. The Brewers will get a close-up look at David Price.

13. Danny Valencia will provide some depth and versatility for the Jays, who continue to play better and are a dangerous team.

14. Wrote here last week about Asdrubal Cabrera in the trade market; the Indians have some options, as Zack Meisel writes. Some scouts believe that Cabrera's agility and athleticism is in surprising decline -- sooner than expected, given his age of 28.

15. The Astros are mulling their options.

16. Some rival officials are certain that the Rangers are going to trade Alex Rios this week.

17. Look for the Rockies to keep Jorge De La Rosa and Brett Anderson.

18. The Giants are desperate as the trade deadline nears, writes Ann Killion.

19. At a time when former Oakland outfielder Chris Denorfia is on the trade market, Athletics outfielder Craig Gentry went on the DL with a broken hand.

Around the league

• On Monday's podcast, Jerry Crasnick discussed how the baseball writers were surprised by the new voting rules; Wallace Matthews ran through the Yankees' pre-deadline plans, and gave an update on Michael Pineda.

• Keith Law went to see some prospects of the Royals and White Sox.

• Derek Jeter climbed another rung on the hit list, passing Yaz.

Pedro Alvarez, Martin Maldonado
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
Pittsburgh third baseman Pedro Alvarez has 21 throwing errors this season.
• Pedro Alvarez has 23 errors, including 21 throwing errors, and it may be that his future is at first base. He's making $4.25 million this year, and his salary will climb steeply for next year, through arbitration, meaning that he's beginning to near the tipping point where his salary is no lower than his production value. But he's got a skill that is coveted in the sport these days: Big-time power and he'll take some walks.

• The back and forth between the Rays' pitchers and David Ortiz continued.

• The Rays have 10 wins in their last 11 games.

Dings and dents

1. Jayson Werth hurt his ankle.

2. Mark Teixeira blames age for his extended absences.

3. A virus involved a Tampa Bay reliever.

4. Jason Heyward left Monday's game with back trouble.

5. Jedd Gyorko is back.

Monday's games

1. The Yankees lost again.

2. Vance Worley was the man for the Pirates, in a shutout of the reeling Giants.

3. The Reds lost a marathon. Along the way, Aroldis Chapman threw the ball really, really hard.

4. An interference call went against the Diamondbacks, writes Steve Gilbert.

5. A Cubs pitcher earned his first career win.

6. The Brewers were shut down.

7. Melky Cabrera keyed a wipeout of the Red Sox.

8. Yu Darvish beat the Yankees.

9. Ervin Santana was The Man for the Braves. From ESPN Stats and Info, how he won:

A) 10 of his 11 strikeouts came via a slider, his most such strikeouts in the last six seasons.
B) Hitters were 1-for-16 on at-bats ending with a slider; the 15 outs via a slider were Santana's most in the last two seasons.
C) He threw a fastball on 44.1 percent of his pitches, his second-lowest rate of the season. Santana is 6-1 in games this season when throwing his fastball on less than 50 percent of his pitches and 4-5 when throwing it at least half the time.

10. Oakland got blasted.

NL East

• If the Mets make a move for a star this winter, it'll probably be somebody other than Troy Tulowitzki, writes Andy Martino.

• The Braves' only hope is their starting pitching.

NL Central

• Mike Matheny has shown how he might be able to use all the lefties in his bullpen.

• A.J. Pierzynski could bring an extra edge, some teammates believe.

• There is no bigger fan than Bob Castellini.

NL West

From ESPN Stats and Info: The Padres were shut out for 16th time this season, four more than any other team in baseball (shut out nine times all last season)

Most Times Being Shut Out
*2014 season
San Diego Padres -- 16 > Lost to Atlanta Braves 2-0 on Monday

• From ESPN Stats and Info: The Giants are now 6-20 in their last 26 home games (2.7 runs per game), while being shutout in two out of their last three home games. Overall, Monday marked their fifth-straight loss (second-longest streak this season).

• Kirk Gibson wants an MLB review of a home plate play.

AL East

• John Farrell faces a challenge from within, writes Steve Buckley.

AL Central

• The Royals have some good minor-league pitching, writes Andy McCullough.

• Austin Jackson talked his way into the leadoff spot.

AL West

• A bullpen session has drawn a lot of scrutiny in Houston.

• The Rangers may have found something in the rubble of their season.

• The Angels' bullpen has room for two aces.

Lastly

• Sandy Alderson says he has no recollection of a PED conversation with Tony La Russa.

• The new Hall of Fame voting rules will torpedo some candidates.

• A Yankees fan returned a lost Red Sox championship ring.

And today will be better than yesterday.

Scouting Royals, White Sox prospects.

Some notes from a pair of Class A games I attended in the past week, beginning with a matchup between the Royals' and White Sox's high-A affiliates:

• The Wilmington Blue Rocks' lineup is down two bats of note following last month's promotion of Hunter Dozier. Shortstop Raul Mondesi Jr., who turned just 19 on Sunday, is struggling at the plate, which is not surprising given how young he is for the level. But he's making it worse with his incessant attempts to bunt for hits. He's doing it early in counts, so he's not able to work on pitch recognition or timing or just swinging the bat like you want a prospect to do. He's a plus runner, so bunting for hits would add value, but it shouldn't come at the expense of him learning to hit. I'd put a moratorium on him trying to bunt for any reason the rest of the year, forcing him to work on improving his approach and gaining consistency with his left-handed swing.

• Wilmington lefty Sean Manaea looked better than he did when I saw him in April, showing a more fluid delivery, better use of his legs and a little more velocity. Manaea started out at 90-93 mph and finished at 88-92 in the fifth inning, mixing both four-seamers and two-seamers, along with an above-average 78-80 mph slider that varied between a true slider and a slurve. He barely used his changeup, preferring to back-door the slider to right-handed hitters or just put it in the dirt and see if they'd chase. He walked four in five innings, although I wouldn't call the outing "wild," as he seemed to lose the zone in the top of the third and walked three in that half-inning, but he was otherwise around the plate the rest of his outing.

• Courtney Hawkins, the Chicago White Sox's first-round pick in 2012, still looks awful, even though he's having a much better season statistically while repeating the Carolina League. Hawkins was punched out three times against Manaea -- after being punched out three times in the Carolina League All-Star Game, so he's 0-for-9 with six whiffs in the two games I've seen this year -- struggling with breaking balls down that he couldn't lay off and with fastballs up that he couldn't reach. Hawkins gets his front foot down very late and there's no weight transfer, although it's an improvement over where he was in his first instructional league, when he was drifting over his front side rather than striding and turning his hips. He's too young to write off -- he'll be 21 in November -- but it's a grade 30 or (if you're kind) 35 hit tool right now and there isn't enough progress in pitch recognition for me to be optimistic.

• Winston-Salem Dash shortstop Cleuluis Rondon, who was traded to the White Sox last July, made several spectacular plays to his right, showing unbelievable (dare I say Andrelton Simmons-esque?) range and a plus arm. The youngest position player on the Dash's roster, Rondon didn't hit at all for low-A Kannapolis but has been better in a much smaller sample at the higher level. Most notably, he has cut his strikeout rate so far by about a third. He looks like he'll have enough bat speed to handle good velocity, and had a single and a double off Manaea, both well-struck, although I doubt there will ever be even fringy power here. This kind of defender with good contact rates is pretty promising, though, as he won't have to do that much more with the bat to become a regular.

• Center fielder Bubba Starling does look better than he did in April and early May, when I tweeted that he looked more lost at the plate than ever. He finally reverted to his high-school swing mechanics, and word is the Kansas City Royals now have him working with just one hitting coach instead of the panoply of voices in his ear he's had since signing. He has hit .298/.359/.452 in July with a 23 percent strikeout rate, which is worlds better than his line before then: .203/.287/.326 with a 29 percent strikeout rate. Although we are dealing with a small sample size this month, I'm more confident in it because we can tie the boost to improved mechanics. In his first at-bat, he turned on a slider breaking away from him and lined a hard single into left, a pitch he would never have sniffed two months ago. It's scant progress, and he's going to turn 22 next week, but he's no longer a lost cause.

• I headed down to Aberdeen on Wednesday to try to see the Brooklyn Cyclones and the New York Mets' first-round pick, Michael Conforto, but the game was interrupted after one inning by a two-hour rain delay and I saw just one at-bat of each hitter I was hoping to catch. Conforto was caught looking on a dubious strike call on a changeup away; in BP, he loaded his hands high and deep but got the bat head into the zone quickly, rotated his hips extremely well for pull power, and let the ball travel well. He's too old and experienced for the New York-Penn League and should be promoted out of there, ideally to high-A St. Lucie, within the next week or two. Meanwhile, Brooklyn starter Casey Meisner was awful, throwing 87-91 mph with an above-average curveball but no command or deception. Aberdeen starter Patrick Connaughton was at 93-95 mph, but the pitch lacked life or sink, with a fringy changeup at 84-86 mph.

Rumors.

Rockies in no rush to deal De La Rosa
July, 29, 2014
JUL 29
10:22
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
01COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
The Colorado Rockies have started to receive offers for left-hander Jorge De La Rosa who, at 11-6, is the only pitcher on the last place team who has won more than five games this season. However, it's not clear that the Rockies are willing to part ways with the pitcher just yet.

Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post points out that there are very obvious reasons that the Rockies might want to deal both De La Rosa and another left-hander, Brett Anderson: "(They) are the Rockies' two best pitchers, and are scheduled to be their highest-paid pitchers in 2015. Plus, the Rockies have already dropped out of contention."

However, he also notes that because De La Rosa will be a free agent at the end of the year, a $14 million qualifying offer "would ensure draft-pick compensation if he were to sign with another team." In other words, the Rockies aren't willing to simply give their top pitcher away.

The Baltimore Orioles reportedly were in talks with the Rockies about De La Rosa, but backed off when Colorado suggested that Kevin Gausman be included in the return package.
Tags:Colorado Rockies, Jorge De La Rosa, Brett Anderson
Will Mets move Colon?
July, 29, 2014
JUL 29
9:11
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
01COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
On Monday, the New York Mets defeated the Philadelphia Phillies, 7-1, in large part thanks to the pitching of Bartolo Colon, who struck out six batters over 7 2/3 innings. Whether or not this will be the last game Colon pitches for the Mets remains to be seen.

According to Fred Kerber of the New York Post, general manager Sandy Alderson seems to think that the Mets will stand pat between now and Thursday's trade deadline. "Anybody who’s offering us a potential upgrade on our current roster is looking at our young pitching. Those interested in our veteran players, they're offering prospects," Alderson said.

"We're in that position where we don't want to give up prospects, but we're not anxious to trade for guys that can't help us nearer term."

That said, when it comes to Colon, Alderson wouldn't rule out the possibility that a team might make them an offer he'd be willing to accept, but he was skeptical. "We're not anxious to move him at this point. It could happen," Alderson said, hinting that he thought the Mets might get better return for Colon in the offseason.

Tags:Bartolo Colon
Tulowitzki trade talk continues
July, 28, 2014
JUL 28
6:35
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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In the wake of his own team misspelling his name on the back of giveaway replica jerseys, Troy Tulowitzki was spotted at Yankee Stadium over the weekend, sitting in the stands and watching a game that did not involve the Colorado Rockies. That led to some speculation that the shortstop was making some sort of statement that he was interested in leaving Colorado for the Bronx.

As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports writes, Tulowitzki "wanted to see his idol, Derek Jeter, one last time, and he was close enough in Philadelphia -- where he's got an appointment Monday to visit his hip doctor -- to make that happen. That is all well and good. At the same time, Tulowitzki is smart enough to know that showing up at a Yankees game when he'd love for the Colorado Rockies to trade him to New York is inviting anger from the front office."

Passan goes on to say that it's, in fact, the New York Mets who have reached out to the Rockies and are "prepared to offer top pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard in a deal for 29-year-old. And the response is: Not yet. We’re not ready to deal him. We want to hear it from him."

According to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, the chances of a deal involving Tulowitzki are slim. "Can we call a moratorium on Troy Tulowitzki rumors this week? Teams that have checked in on him say they've been told Rockies ownership is adamantly opposed to moving both him and Carlos Gonzalez, at least for now. Instead, the Rockies are only really listening on their bullpen arms: Adam Ottavino, Rex Brothers, Matt Belisle and possibly LaTroy Hawkins, but only if they're overwhelmed."
Tags:Colorado Rockies, Troy Tulowitzki
Will Marlins deal Cishek?
July, 28, 2014
JUL 28
4:14
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
01COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Over the last eight days, Steve Cishek of the Miami Marlins has recorded six saves. That's certainly drawn a lot of added attention to the reliever, who seems to be the most likely member of the Marlins to be dealt in the next few days -- assuming the team makes any moves at all.

ESPN Insider Paul Swydan suggests that the Marlins would be best served by dealing away Cishek now, and worrying about the future of their bullpen at some point down the line. "The Marlins have a good bullpen, and that won't change if Cishek is dealt. Even if it does, the bullpen is supposed to be the final focus of attention in any rebuilding plan anyway, and good relief pitchers can be found via free agency every year," Swydan writes.

"In the past two years, cheap effective relievers found in free agency have included Koji Uehara, Joakim Soria, Pat Neshek, Burke Badenhop and Jason Grilli. With a discerning eye, bullpen help is not hard to find. And so, if teams nibble on Cishek and Mike Dunn, the Marlins need to make them available and try to get back some infielders. They're not likely to find any franchise cornerstones, but given that their starting first baseman, second baseman and shortstop have combined for 0.2 WAR, any potentially solid players could provide a boost."

However, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald recently pointed out, the Marlins desperately want to lock up Giancarlo Stanton to a long-term contract, and "after watching the Marlins trade teammates simply to unload salary during his time in the organization, (Stanton) has made it known that he wants to see the team start showing franchise stability and a commitment to winning. As in now. Trading closer Steve Cishek... might send the wrong message."
Tags:Miami Marlins, Giancarlo Stanton, Steve Cishek
Rios drawing interest
July, 28, 2014
JUL 28
2:43
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that there are many teams checking in with the Texas Rangers about the availability of outfielder Alex Rios, including the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds.

Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish notes that Rios has a "six-team no-trade clause that allows him to block trades to the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Royals, Astros and Athletics." However, he says the Yankees are "monitoring him nonetheless" in the hopes he might be willing to waive that clause.

C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer doesn't think the Reds will end up being a fit for Rios: "Rios, 33, is hitting .299/.328/.426 with four home runs and eight triples this season, but is making $12.5 million this season. He has a club option for $13.5 million for next year with a $1 million buyout. That is waaaaay too much for the Reds to afford."
Tags:Alex Rios
Could Yankees turn to Danks?
July, 28, 2014
JUL 28
1:08
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The New York Yankees had been linked as possibly being interested in dealing for Ian Kennedy of the San Diego Padres, but chances of that coming to pass probably dropped significantly after news came out that "the pitcher will miss his scheduled start against the Atlanta Braves on Monday due to a left oblique strain."

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that John Danks of the Chicago White Sox "may be among the most likely rotation candidates for the Yankees, if not the most likely, as there's no evidence they're even talking to the Padres about Ian Kennedy." He adds that "several other available pitchers aren't possibilities for them" among those unlikely targets being the likes of Jon Lester of their divisional rivals, the Boston Red Sox.

Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York doesn't think Danks and the Yankees are a match. "Danks, 29, is a lefty, which is a plus. However, he has a 4.35 ERA and is owed around $34 million through 2016. That is not very enticing unless Chicago eats some money and doesn't want much in return," he writes.
Tags:Ian Kennedy, John Danks
Pirates looking at Hawkins?
July, 28, 2014
JUL 28
11:44
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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While the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen has performed fairly well thus far in 2014, ever since the acquisition of Ernesto Frieri and his 11.25 ERA since joining the club, there's certainly a feeling that there's room for improvement.

According to Thomas Harding of MLB.com, the Pirates are looking to make a deal with the Colorado Rockies to add LaTroy Hawkins to their bullpen. "If the Pirates want to beef up their bullpen, it would be in middle relief or possible insurance in case Mark Melancon struggles, is ailing or is unavailable on a given day. Hawkins, who can pitch in any situation and tends to become more effective as the season progresses, could be a fit."

Harding notes that Hawkins played under Pirates manager Clint Hurdle back in 2007, during the pitcher's first stint with the Rockies, and that experience ended with a trip to the World Series. For the Rockies, dealing away a 41-year-old pitcher for a prospect or two that can remain under the team's control for several years to come makes a lot of sense.
Tags:Pittsburgh Pirates, LaTroy Hawkins, Ernesto Frieri, Mark Melancon
Giants still searching at second?
July, 28, 2014
JUL 28
10:12
AM ET
01COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Dan Uggla has gone 0-for-8 in his first three games with the San Francisco Giants, and his two errors at second base on Sunday certainly didn't help make any better of a first impression with his new team. With the trade deadline coming on Thursday, there's a chance that the Giants could choose to look elsewhere for help in the infield going forward.

According to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, the Giants had two scouts watching the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend, with their eyes squarely focused on Ben Zobrist. Morosi says the team "remains interested in Zobrist despite giving up two prospects in the Jake Peavy deal."

ESPN.com's Jim Bowden writes that the Giants have "dealt with the neck injury to Marco Scutaro, the struggles of Brandon Hicks and the inconsistency of Joe Panik and are now taking a long shot with Uggla. That hasn't stopped GM Brian Sabean from trying to land a better offensive and defensive option. There is only a moderate chance they actually get one by the July 31 deadline."

Bowden lists Zobrist among several potential targets for the Giants, including Nick Franklin, Brock Holt, Gordon Beckham, Chase Utley, Martin Prado and Aaron Hill.
Tags:San Francisco Giants, Ben Zobrist, Dan Uggla
Lester to Dodgers and back again?
July, 28, 2014
JUL 28
9:10
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports says that there are several teams interested in acquiring Boston Red Sox pitcher Jon Lester prior to the trade deadline, but cautions that while Boston is "listening on Lester" they are "seeking a huge return" for what might ultimately prove to be a two-month rental. One of teams believed to be in the mix is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

According to Ricky Doyle of NESN Sports, Lester continues to openly express his desire to pitch for the Red Sox in 2015 and would be "open to re-signing with Boston over the offseason even if the Red Sox traded him before Thursday's Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline... Lester even took things a step further, (saying) it's unlikely he'd consider signing a contract extension with his new team if dealt, as returning to Boston remains his top priority."

Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston thinks that an agreement to send Lester to the Dodgers with a return package that includes Matt Kemp could be possible. "With the Sox in need of more offensive production in the outfield, the right-handed-hitting Kemp could be the major piece in a trade for Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester, especially with the Dodgers reluctant to part with top outfield prospect Joc Pederson," Edes writes.

Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti would not comment on the possibility of his team making any deadline deals. "You know what? We may not do anything," Colletti said. "We've still got a club that's solid, that still has upside to it, so I think there's still more in this club. Have we won four in a row yet? I think there's still a strong run in this club as it's currently constituted. That said, we've been historically active in July and August, sometimes, and we'll continue to see what else we can do."
Tags:Matt Kemp, Jon Lester
Will Phillies make moves or not?
July, 27, 2014
JUL 27
4:28
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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There's been no shortage of rumors surrounding the Philadelphia Phillies as the trade deadline approaches, and ESPN.com's Jim Bowden says that "the time has come for the (team) to realize that it's too late to retool. It's time for them to put denial behind them and embrace the realities of a complete rebuild."

Bowden sums up the likely suspects to get moved in the next week: "Need a top-of-the-rotation starter with postseason success? Philadelphia has two in Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Need an impact closer with an ERA closer to one than two? They have Jonathan Papelbon. Need a lefty reliever? They have Antonio Bastardo. Need a middle infielder with postseason success? They have second baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Need an outfielder with power? They have Marlon Byrd."

However, Bob Ford of the Philadelphia Inquirer doesn't believe that any moves that might come to pass are going to bring back in return something to get excited about. "Byrd could be traded, as could A.J. Burnett, Ben Revere, and Domonic Brown, but those swaps wouldn't provide many lifeboats for the sinking ship, either. And the likelihood of a major deal, one involving Rollins, Utley, or Hamels, let alone Ryan Howard, is increasingly remote."

Much of Ford's pessimism has to do with the team's trading track record. "While general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said there will be changes, he hasn't got enough leverage to do anything of lasting value. A year ago, the Phillies were quiet at the non-waiver trade deadline, and it could turn out the same this time around."
Tags:Philadelphia Phillies, Marlon Byrd, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins
Pirates switching to 3B platoon?
July, 27, 2014
JUL 27
3:15
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The starting lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates has been missing the name Pedro Alvarez for the last three games, with Josh Harrison and Brent Morel finding themselves on the field at the hot corner in his place. All three of those games came against opponents with left-handed pitchers on the mound.

According to Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Alvarez's absence raised some questions as to whether or not he was no longer the team's full-time starter at third base. "Earlier this month, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said Alvarez would not become a pure platoon player despite his continued struggles against left-handed pitching and the emergence of Josh Harrison. Hurdle was asked Saturday if held the same position."

"I don't have a crystal ball," Hurdle said. "If you have one, let me borrow it. It would make my life easier. You look at every individual player. You want to do the best you can to get them in situations where they have success. You also have to weigh that against what's best for the team and put your best nine on the field. That's what we continually look at internally day after day."

Hurdle said the Pirates were merely trying to ensure Alvarez remained healthy after his having injured his knee on Tuesday. However, Alvarez was able to enter Friday's game as a pinch-hitter and remained in the field to finish out the contest, only to find himself sitting again on Saturday against another southpaw.

Alvarez is hitting .186 against left-handers this season, and .198 for his career. Franklin Morales, another left-hander, was scheduled to start for the Colorado Rockies on Sunday.
Tags:Pittsburgh Pirates, Pedro Alvarez
O's looking to juggle rotation?
July, 27, 2014
JUL 27
1:35
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The Baltimore Orioles rotation currently lines up to have Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen and Kevin Gausman to start against the Los Angeles Angels when the two teams kick off a three-game set on Tuesday. However, that's not things may eventually go down.

Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes that manager Buck Showalter is "considering a tweak to his starting rotation that could affect the Orioles' upcoming home series against the Los Angeles Angels after Monday's day off."

According to Encina, Showalter may wish to avoid using the left-handed Chen against an Angels team that "feasts on left-handed pitching" and could hold him back to throw Friday against a Seattle Mariners team that "he held scoreless for eight innings Thursday."

The tactic would also allow the Orioles to use Bud Norris on Thursday against the Angels, rather than against the Mariners on Friday. In his two starts since returning to the major leagues after a brief stint in Double-A to work on some things over the All-Star break, Norris held the Angels to one-earned run in a win, while giving up four runs in five innings to the Mariners in a loss.
Tags:Baltimore Orioles, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris
Interest in Prado grows?
July, 27, 2014
JUL 27
11:51
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The Arizona Diamondbacks beat the Philadelphia Phillies 10-6 on Saturday, in large part due to the five-RBI performance of Martin Prado, who upped his batting average to .280 thanks to his current five-game hitting streak.

Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic writes that "Prado's name is frequently mentioned as one of the Diamondbacks' trade chips as Thursday's deadline approaches, although the $22 million he's owed over the next two seasons suggest he might not be easy to move."

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Diamondbacks are more interested in trading Aaron Hill then they are Prado: "Hill has slipped from two years ago, when he had a career year, and is batting .251 with eight homers and 49 RBI. Prado's numbers are comparable (four homers, 37 RBI, .274), but Arizona views him as a key asset because of his leadership abilities and versatility."

However, given Prado's positional flexibility -- he's played games at all four infield spots in addition to left field at some point over the last three seasons -- other teams are more likely to be looking to acquire Prado, even if the player himself has no interest in changing clubhouses.

"I don't like change," Prado said. "That's why I work so hard to fit in with the team that I used to play for and this team. I like it here. But I've been learning along the way in my career that it doesn't matter how much in love you can be with a team. When they start not believing in you, it's time to move on."

If Dan Uggla doesn't work out in his "audition" with the San Francisco Giants, or if the Washington Nationals get bad news regarding the long-term health of Ryan Zimmerman, those two teams could well try and make a move to acquire Prado.
Tags:Arizona Diamondbacks, Aaron Hill, Martin Prado
What's going on in Nats infield?
July, 27, 2014
JUL 27
10:22
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The Washington Nationals continue to operate with a patchwork infield as they wait for some positive news regarding a potential return to action of third baseman Ryan Zimmerman.

According to James Wagner of the Washington Post, "On Saturday, general manager Mike Rizzo said the Nationals would check on Zimmerman when the team returns from their current roadtrip, which ends Wednesday in Miami... Rizzo declined to say yet how long Zimmerman would be out. Zimmerman has been expected to receive further evaluation on his hamstring early next week by the team’s doctor."

In the meantime, the Nationals are playing with Anthony Rendon at third, and have now used three different players in his place at second base over the last three games -- Danny Espinosa, Zach Walters and Kevin Frandsen, who before Saturday had started only one other time in July.

"He is a Gold Glove-caliber defender," Rizzo said of Espinosa. "He has a plus-plus arm. He is a lot of trouble for the third-base coach ... because he is one of the best relay guys in all of baseball. He is a guy who has power, steals bases and runs the bases extremely well. He is a guy we have been counting on since Day 1 in Spring Training. He is a key cog on our ballclub."

However, key cogs don't typically sit out multiple games in a row when healthy, and if the news on Zimmerman is not good, perhaps the Nationals will look to make a deal to get a key cog in the lineup who they actually feel comfortable playing every day.
Tags:Washington Nationals, Danny Espinosa, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon
Red Sox open to more deals?
July, 27, 2014
JUL 27
9:09
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
01COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
With the Boston Red Sox in the midst of a five-game slide that has planted them firmly in the American League East cellar, the deal that sent starting pitcher Jake Peavy to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for a pair of minor leaguers is surely just the tip of the trade deadline iceberg for the organization.

According to ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes, general manager Ben Cherington "did not rule out dealing ace left-hander Jon Lester, saying the club expects to listen to offers on numerous players in the five days before Thursday's non-waiver deadline."

One player who is hoping to get a change of scenery is Mike Carp. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports that Carp "told the Red Sox after the All-Star break that he wants to be traded. Carp, who has not played a significant role this season, believes he can contribute to a contender. Two scouts say that National League teams have interest in Carp."
 
What Have we Seen at the Projected Worst Positions in Baseball?

There are a few annual series we run here at FanGraphs. One of them is the annual trade-value series, where Dave gets to write glowingly about Mike Trout. Another one of them is the annual positional power rankings series, where some randomly assigned lucky author gets to write glowingly about Mike Trout. The positional power rankings are intended to highlight the strongest positions in baseball, but you can’t identify the strongest without also identifying the weakest. Granted, the rankings are only as strong as the projections, but the projections are solid, and so, here were the five weakest projected positions coming into the 2014 regular season:

Mets bullpen, -2.3 standard deviations from average
Astros rotation, -2.1
Marlins first basemen, -2.1
Marlins third basemen, -1.9
Blue Jays second basemen, -1.9
Nothing in there was shocking. And a lot of that stuff wasn’t particularly relevant. Only the Blue Jays, out of that group, were looking to contend. So there was a lot of conversation in spring training about what the Blue Jays were going to do at second base. Their solution back then: nothing! The situation, however, has changed. All of the situations have changed to some degree, because the future always introduces new information. The point of all this: Those were the five worst projected positions coming into the year. How have the players at those positions actually done? How have the teams actually maneuvered?

Mets bullpen

Projection: -2.3 standard deviations from average
Performance: -1.7
The Mets were projected to have the worst bullpen in baseball, with the most valuable arm being Bobby Parnell‘s. This year, Parnell made one appearance and then was told he needed Tommy John surgery. In a sense, then, the Mets’ bullpen has over-performed. Without Parnell, this unit was supposed to be particularly dreadful. Now, by WAR, it’s still sucked. It’s actually second-worst in baseball, and below replacement-level. Confusingly, the unit is middle-of-the-pack by RA9-WAR, because they have a 3.14 ERA to go with a 3.77 FIP. It’s been helpful to get so much out of Jenrry Mejia. Jeurys Familia is running another sub-2 ERA. But it shouldn’t be forgotten that, this season, the Mets’ bullpen has featured Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jose Valverde, and Kyle Farnsworth. Maybe that tells you enough about how things have gone, but while the bullpen hasn’t exactly helped the Mets to hang in the race, they were never supposed to hang in the race in this season, and there are bits and pieces there that could contribute for the next good team. You worry about the bullpen when the rest of the roster is good enough to make the bullpen matter.

Astros rotation

Projection: -2.1 standard deviations from average
Performance: -0.2
An excerpt from the positional power rankings:

But that future is not here, and it’s not even all that close yet. So you get Scott Feldman, staff ace. I like Scott Feldman, but when he’s not only your ace but projects for as much value as your #2-#4 starters put together, well, that’s not great.

One thing we know the Astros don’t have is a wonderful starting rotation, today. But it’s absolutely been better than expected, to the point where Jeff Luhnow has expressed a willingness to move a starter because the team thinks it might have too many. The Astros’ rotation has been basically average, sandwiched between the A’s and the Royals, and you already know the big reasons why. About Feldman projecting for as much value as the other guys behind him put together: Feldman’s got a WAR of 0.6. Four other guys are at 1.2 or better, with Dallas Keuchel leading the way and Collin McHugh coming completely out of nowhere. Keuchel, we maybe should’ve seen coming to some extent. McHugh, no way. That’s just a miracle. Maybe your version of a miracle doesn’t have a 94 FIP-, but considering what the Astros could’ve been dealing with, the rotation has kept them from being a total embarrassment.

Marlins first basemen

Projection: -2.1 standard deviations from average
Performance: -0.8
Fun fact: Marlins first basemen, combined, projected for -0.4 WAR. Garrett Jones didn’t project well, but at least the Marlins signed him for two guaranteed years. Now, Marlins first basemen are on pace to be worth -0.3 WAR. Jones, it turns out, still isn’t good. But while the team is hitting its positional projection, it’s still better, relatively speaking, than the expectation, because other teams have had disasters. The Astros are already at -1.9. The Rangers are at -1.7. Seven teams are in the red, with the Marlins being the best of them. Marlins first basemen haven’t over-performed. Other first basemen have under-performed. The internal suck level has been consistent, but the external suck context has made for a different landscape.

Marlins third basemen

Projection: -1.9 standard deviations from average
Performance: 0.2
So the Marlins didn’t project very well as a team. This, right here, was totally understandable. The Marlins were in position to give the playing time at third base to Casey McGehee and Ty Wigginton. Over McGehee’s two previous years in the bigs, he’d been below replacement. Wigginton had been a catastrophe since 2008. McGehee was coming off a year in Japan where he did well, but he had a track record of not being very good. McGehee, at this writing, has two home runs. He also has a 114 wRC+ and a BABIP closer to .400 than .300. The Marlins have expressed reluctance to trade him for some reason. This is just one of those weird things. McGehee and Jose Fernandez, together, were projected to be worth 4.7 WAR. They’re on pace to be worth, together, 4.7 WAR. They’re just getting there in a different way than we thought. McGehee and the Marlins at third base have been as productive as David Wright and the Mets at third base, who ranked No. 2 in the positional power rankings.

Blue Jays second basemen

Projection: -1.9 standard deviations from average
Performance: -0.1
Maybe the oddest thing about last offseason was the way we were all forced to learn the name Ryan Goins. He was the guy the Jays were willing to say they were happy with. They tried to do some things — they tried to get Ian Kinsler — but they didn’t try hard enough, which is why Goins looked like the starter at second out of spring training. Our projections split time between Goins, Maicer Izturis, and Munenori Kawasaki, and in all, Jays second basemen projected to be almost exactly replacement-level.

So far they’ve been average, as a unit. They’ve out-performed the Rays at second, and the Rays ranked No. 2 in the positional power rankings. They’ve been even with Jason Kipnis and the Indians. Goins has been lousy, but he hasn’t even batted 100 times, because second base has also included Brett Lawrie and Steve Tolleson. Allowing for that flexibility has been the semi-emergence of Juan Francisco, and now the Jays have added Danny Valencia, who makes for an intriguing Francisco platoon partner. So when the Jays get healthy again, they’ll still have the option of having Lawrie at second, and that’s just more and more time we can all spend not watching Ryan Goins play baseball.

Coming into the year, Toronto’s second-base situation looked like one of the very worst situations among potential contenders. Through four months, they’ve done more than just manage — they’ve done pretty well for themselves, to the point now where they might not need to address the position in the next few days. What Toronto hasn’t done is identify a long-term solution at the spot, but you can’t have long-term solutions everywhere all the time, and mixing and matching has served them well. For as much criticism as the Jays’ front office received after a winter of little activity, they never panicked and they never had to. That inactivity currently has them in a playoff position.

Prospect Watch: A Statistical Report on 2013′s First Rounders.

The last time he was permitted to participate in this daily Watch of baseball Prospects, the author submitted a statistical report on the most recent collection of first-round draft picks — which report revealed, among other stirring truth, that Cubs draftee Kyle Schwarber was meting out much in the way of Baseball Justice on minor-league pitchers.

What follows is almost the same exact exercise as that one from three weeks ago, except applied to last year’s first-round picks instead. As in the case of that first post, what I’ve done here is to produce a pair of leaderboards (one for batters; one, pitchers) of the relevant first-rounders. Links to the relevant FanGraphs leaderboards are available here: Batters / Pitchers.

Leaderboard: 2013 First-Round Batters
Here are all the last year’s first-round batters to have recorded at least a single plate appearance in 2014, sorted by Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA):
# Player Team Pick Age Pos PA BB% K% HR BABIP wRC+ wRAA
1 Kris Bryant Cubs (AA/AAA) 2 22 3B 448 13.4% 26.8% 33 .417 198 52.4
2 Aaron Judge Yankees (A/A+) 32 22 OF 430 14.4% 21.9% 13 .395 158 30.3
3 D.J. Peterson Mariners (A+/AA) 12 22 3B 411 8.0% 20.7% 23 .358 150 26.9
4 Hunter Renfroe Padres (A+/AA) 13 22 OF 426 8.7% 24.2% 20 .332 128 16.1
5 J.P. Crawford Phillies (A/A+) 16 19 SS 411 12.9% 14.1% 7 .332 128 13.7
6 Hunter Dozier Royals (A+/AA) 8 22 SS 409 11.5% 23.2% 7 .349 118 9.0
7 Clint Frazier Indians (A) 5 19 OF 389 10.0% 28.5% 11 .360 119 8.7
8 Travis Demeritte Rangers (A) 30 19 SS 361 10.8% 33.8% 20 .292 119 8.5
9 Eric Jagielo Yankees (R/A+) 26 22 3B 252 9.5% 22.6% 13 .266 125 7.1
10 Tim Anderson White Sox (A+) 17 21 SS 300 2.3% 22.7% 6 .369 119 6.8
11 Colin Moran Marlins (A+) 6 21 3B 380 7.1% 13.4% 4 .332 110 4.2
12 Austin Meadows Pirates (R/A) 9 19 OF 76 9.2% 11.8% 0 .383 136 3.3
13 Billy McKinney A’s/Cubs (A+) 24 19 OF 420 11.2% 17.6% 11 .288 105 1.6
14 Dominic Smith Mets (A) 11 19 1B 404 8.9% 15.1% 0 .341 97 -1.4
15 Phillip Ervin Reds (A) 27 21 OF 425 8.9% 18.8% 5 .276 93 -3.5
16 Nick Ciuffo Rays (R) 21 19 C 116 9.5% 21.6% 1 .269 70 -4.3
17 Christian Arroyo Giants (A-/A) 25 19 SS 276 5.4% 14.1% 3 .292 80 -6.8
18 Reese McGuire Pirates (A) 14 19 C 322 6.2% 9.9% 1 .288 75 -9.8
Leaderboard: 2013 First-Round Pitchers
Here are all the first-round pitchers to have recorded an appearance of some sort — sorted, in this case, by kwERA, an ERA estimator that accounts for strikeout and walk rate:
# Player Team Pick Age Hand IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP kwERA
1 Hunter Harvey Orioles (A) 22 19 RHP 87.2 10.9 3.4 0.5 3.51 3.00
2 Ian Clarkin Yankees (A) 33 19 LHP 65.0 9.7 2.8 0.8 3.79 3.14
3 Marco Gonzales Cards (A+/AA/AAA/MLB) 19 22 LHP 91.2 9.2 2.3 0.7 3.04 3.16
4 Braden Shipley D-backs (A/A+) 15 22 RHP 99.0 9.1 2.8 0.7 3.85 3.40
5 Jon Gray Rockies (AA) 3 22 RHP 105.0 8.2 2.7 0.8 3.33 3.58
6 Ryne Stanek Rays (A/A+) 29 22 RHP 55.2 7.9 2.8 0.3 3.16 3.76
7 Mark Appel Astros (A+) 1 22 RHP 44.1 8.1 2.2 1.8 5.33 3.80
8 Rob Kaminsky Cardinals (A) 28 19 LHP 72.0 6.9 2.9 0.1 3.28 4.07
9 Chi-Chi Gonzalez Rangers (A+/AA) 23 22 RHP 103.2 6.9 2.7 0.3 3.34 4.09
10 Chris Anderson Dodgers (A+) 18 21 RHP 96.2 9.5 5.2 0.9 4.94 4.14
11 Kohl Stewart Twins (A) 4 19 RHP 81.2 6.4 2.5 0.3 3.66 4.15
12 Trey Ball Red Sox (A) 7 20 LHP 68.1 6.3 3.2 0.8 4.60 4.49
13 Jonathon Crawford Tigers (A) 20 22 RHP 90.1 6.1 3.4 0.3 3.91 4.51
14 Jason Hursh Braves (AA) 31 22 RHP 120.1 4.6 2.8 0.3 3.63 4.79
Moderately Helpful Notes
Here are five notes, offering varying degrees of insight:

Omitted from the above is Phil Bickford, which right-handed prospect was selected 10th overall but ultimately decided to matriculate at Cal State Fullerton.
Positions listed are those at which relevant prospect was drafted, not necessarily that which he’s playing now.
Among 2013 first-round batters, Cubs third-base prospect Kris Bryant has produced the most successful 2014 season by weighted runs — a figure, that, largely aided by his 33 home runs and .400-plus BABIP.
Among pitchers, the question of which has produced the most impressive season has a less clear answer. One notes, however, that, with the exception of some difficult major-league appearances, that St. Louis left-hander Marco Gonzales has sustained his impressive strikeout and walk rates across multiple levels.
Baseball America’s draft database has been of some assistance to the composition of this post.

Aroldis Chapman’s Taking a Break From His Changeup.

The most unfair thing to imagine in baseball is Aroldis Chapman learning a knuckleball. The next-most unfair thing to imagine in baseball is Aroldis Chapman learning a changeup. This year Aroldis Chapman got around to learning a changeup, and things got weird. When we last checked in on June 19, batters had attempted 14 swings against the change, and not a single one of those swings had made any kind of contact. Later that day, Pirates batters attempted two more swings against the change, and both of them whiffed. So, at one point this year, through 16 swings, Chapman’s changeup had a contact rate of 0.0%. That’s a low rate that put Chapman’s change among the league leaders.

I thought it would make sense to check back in, now that more than a month has passed. I’m fascinated to no end by the idea of Chapman throwing an offspeed pitch, but sadly, it would appear that Chapman and the changeup are on a bit of a break. Not that it isn’t understandable. And not that Chapman needs a changeup to be a good reliever. He really, really doesn’t. I can’t emphasize this enough. Chapman in whatever form is amazing. It’s just that the most hilarious pitch in baseball is taking a nap.

The changeup no longer has a contact rate allowed of 0.0%. Today it stands at 5.6%, with one contact swing out of 18 attempts. Back on June 26, Adam Duvall of the Giants put a changeup in play, with certain authority.

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That’s not why the pitch has gone missing. But, it’s presumably related to why, and the pitch has gone missing. We can break Chapman’s season into little segments:

Segment 1: 4 appearances, 87 pitches, 0% changeups
Segment 2: 14 appearances, 233 pitches, 19% changeups
Segment 3: 13 appearances, 216 pitches, 5% changeups
A sub-segment of Segment 3 — let’s call it Segment 3b — covers Chapman’s last six appearances. He’s thrown 96 pitches and two changeups, not counting the five non-changeups he threw in the All-Star Game. It’s not Chapman’s slider rate that’s wavered. All year long, he’s thrown roughly one slider for every four pitches. But, in Segment 1, Chapman threw 75% fastballs. In Segment 2, 55% fastballs. In Segment 3, 69% fastballs. The changeup isn’t completely dead, but it’s not a feature pitch, like it was for about a month earlier on.

Why? Well, I was afraid of this. Here’s a recent example changeup:

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Maybe that doesn’t tell you very much. In which case, here are all of Chapman’s changeups:

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He’s thrown 22% of his changeups in the strike zone. Now, that’s not unusual — that’s a similar rate to Felix Hernandez. But, to stretch the comparison, 62% of Felix’s changeups have been strikes. For Chapman, that rate is 41%, because Felix has good changeup command and Chapman does not. It’s one thing to throw a changeup out of the zone, but Chapman’s thrown several of them really out of the zone. He’s missed high, he’s missed in the middle, and he’s missed low. Chapman’s changeup has a lot of margin of error because it’s so unfairly different from his fastball, so even a changeup down the middle isn’t so bad, but this isn’t a pitch Chapman can spot. And, why throw balls if you don’t need to? If you can live fastball/slider, why not live fastball/slider?

During Segment 2, Chapman struck out 57% of his batters faced. During Segment 3, he’s struck out 53% of his batters faced. During Segment 3b, covering six appearances, he’s struck out 70% of his batters faced, or 14 out of 20. That’s while throwing just two changeups. See, Chapman has this thing he can do:

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He can throw 103 miles per hour, with better location than he should be allowed to have.

Chapman hasn’t really been better since putting the changeup in his back pocket. But he hasn’t been worse, either, and given that he’s throwing harder than he ever has, there’s just so little incentive to put in the work to make the changeup a more consistent weapon. He doesn’t need it to do his job, so why feature it if batters can’t touch the two pitches he’s thrown for years? It would help him, of course, to learn a better changeup if he ever wants to be a starting pitcher, but that’s not going to be something the catcher is thinking about during a 2014 save opportunity. Long-term interests go out the window when you’re a team trying to make the postseason, and Chapman is an absolute freak because of his fastball velocity.

And it’s worth noting that he might’ve improved his command. Relative to last year, his average fastball has been three inches higher in 2014, and Chapman wants the fastball up in the zone. After throwing 65% of fastballs at mid-thigh or higher before, this year he’s at 77%. Also, Chapman’s using his slider differently. Previously, he threw 52% of his sliders over the glove-side third of the plate, or beyond. This year, he’s at 73%, so those sliders are more outside against lefties and more inside against righties. Chapman has changed things up a bit, and when you’re dealing with a higher fastball than ever, and a harder fastball than ever, and a better-located slider down, adding a changeup barely pushes the needle because what the hell are you supposed to do against even just the first two pitches? A good changeup would make the package maybe literally unhittable, but an inconsistent changeup is just about unnecessary.

So, here’s the unsurprising thing: Aroldis Chapman’s changeup is a work in progress. The movement is fine, and the speed differential is fine, but it isn’t a pitch he can locate very well. If he could, he’d be the most dominant pitcher in baseball, but as is, he’s still maybe the most dominant pitcher in baseball, and there just isn’t much reason for him to work hard on improving his changeup in games at the moment. Bullpens? Fine. Next spring training? Fine. But, batters couldn’t hit Chapman a year ago. Right now, it makes sense for him to mix one in every so often just to give hitters a different look, and to keep it in their heads. But, maybe Chapman’s optimal changeup rate is about 4 – 5%. One every two games or so. It’d be higher if the pitch were better, but it’s not and it doesn’t need to be. Every player in baseball has room for improvement, but if Chapman’s intention is to throw mostly fastballs and sliders down the stretch, I think that’s forgivable. After all, before he was Aroldis Chapman with a changeup, he was Aroldis Chapman.

The Cost of Moving Matt Kemp.

Not too long ago, Dave ran through his annual trade value series. Predictably, he ranked the most valuable player in baseball as being Mike Trout. Less predictably, but still predictably, he ranked the most anti-valuable player in baseball as being Albert Pujols. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are teammates! A fun question, then, that showed up in a chat: does Pujols cancel Trout out? In other words, would it make sense for the Angels to package Trout and Pujols together for nothing? It’s totally hypothetical and unrealistic, but it’s an awesome thought experiment, and when Dave ran the numbers, he determined that, no, the package still has value because Trout is that amazing.

So, we’ll never see a trade involving Albert Pujols to offset Mike Trout. But perhaps we could see a deal with a similar design. Playing the part of Pujols: Matt Kemp. Playing the part of Trout: not a guy like Trout at all, but an interesting and talented young prospect. See, it would appear the Dodgers are motivated to move Kemp to another team, and given his salary commitment, there are a few ways the Dodgers could make Kemp more appealing.

The reason Kemp is interesting at all is because in 2011 he might’ve been the best player in baseball. That wasn’t that long ago, and Kemp to this day is an above-average hitter, who’s almost 30 but who isn’t there yet. On the other hand, in 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury hit 32 home runs. In 2011 Roy Halladay was baseball’s best pitcher, and Tim Lincecum‘s ERA beat his peripherals, and the Phillies won 102 games. Things have changed, is the point, and Kemp represents a hell of a risk. The talent is obvious, but over the past two calendar years, he’s been worth 0.3 WAR in 226 games. We find Adam Dunn at 0.2 WAR, and Mike Aviles at 0.5 WAR. Domonic Brown is at 0.0 WAR. Dealing for Kemp is dealing for upside, upside of an unknown magnitude.

We know that injuries and surgeries can explain some of Kemp’s decline. Yet, the best indicator of future injury trouble is past injury trouble, and there’s no telling how well Kemp’s power will return as he puts more distance between himself and his shoulder operations. Between 2009 – 2012, Kemp slugged .514. This year’s .432 is up from last year’s .395. We can also play with some arbitrary ESPN Home Run Tracker information; here are Kemp’s homers hit at least 105 miles per hour:

2006: 4
2007: 4
2008: 6
2009: 8
2010: 7
2011: 14
2012: 3
2013: 2
2014: 1
It’s obvious that Kemp’s power isn’t what it was. It’s reasonable to expect some improvement, but maybe not actually that much. Between 2015 – 2019, Kemp is guaranteed $107 million.

So, let’s talk about his value, relative to his salary. There’ve been a couple interesting Tweets on the subject. One of them:

One GM said of Kemp, “he doesn’t add much value to any deal for us even at half his salary.” Kemp is owed about $114M.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 27, 2014

The other:

To assess Matt Kemp’s current value, asked 2 execs what they’d give him as a free agent today. 1st response:2 years, $16m; 2nd: 2 yrs, $15m. — Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 28, 2014

I think it’s safe to say that, if Kemp were a free agent, he’d get more than two years and $15 million – $16 million. He just wouldn’t get it from either of those anonymous executives. Rosenthal’s tweet is more in line with what Kemp might be able to expect. Granted, hypothetical free-agent Kemp probably wouldn’t be signed through 2019, but anyway, we can run through some math. And we’ll begin with this: blended ZiPS and Steamer project Kemp, right now, for about 2.2 WAR per 600 plate appearances.

So let’s plug that in as his 2015 projection. He’ll be entering his 30s, so he could reasonably be expected to decline over the next half-decade. We’ll start with a 2015 win valuation of $6.5 million per WAR, and we’ll bump that up each year to reflect market inflation. Everything here is an estimate, but we’re just looking to find an estimate, so that’s okay. Based on my own little calculator, between 2015 – 2019, Kemp might be projected for a little over 8 WAR. He’d therefore be worth about $60 million, giving him a negative value of about $47 million. The easiest way to understand that: based on these numbers, it would make sense for the Dodgers to trade Matt Kemp for nothing, while eating $47 million. That’s pretty similar to Rosenthal’s tweet.

Of course, you can move the numbers around. If you project Kemp for 3 WAR, then his negative value is about $25 million. Project him for 2.5 WAR and it’s about $40 million. Project him for 2 WAR and it’s about $52 million, and so on. What we can say is that Matt Kemp’s negative value is some tens of millions of dollars. That’s why nobody is willing to trade for him and his contract — he just isn’t worth his contract, by any analysis. Keep in mind that he’s been worse than a replacement-level player since the start of last season.

But he can hit. He’s hit a lot before. He could be badly in need of a change of scenery. Obviously, no one thinks Kemp is a disaster. So we come to another tweet from Monday morning:

Some rival officials feel that the Dodgers’ best chance to move Kemp is to tie him to one of their elite prospects in a deal.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 28, 2014

One solution for the Dodgers: eat a lot of money. Do that, and Kemp can go away.

The other, more intriguing solution: tie Kemp to something with surplus value. Something with a lot of surplus value. The idea conveyed to Olney is tying Kemp to one of the Dodgers’ top prospects. In their midseason top 50, Baseball America ranked Julio Urias No. 13, Corey Seager No. 16, and Joc Pederson No. 18.

Now, one of the ideas behind moving Kemp is to make space for Pederson, so it wouldn’t make a great deal of sense for the Dodgers to lose both of them at once. But let’s keep things simple for now. Obviously, all these top prospects have a lot of surplus value, which is why prospects are hoarded. The only thing more valuable than a talented young player is a talented young player who’s major-league proven. But just what might these guys be worth?

We’ll continue with the estimates. There’s no way around this — we’re basically just employing educated guesswork. Urias is a young top pitching prospect. Seager and Pederson are young top position-player prospects. The ceilings are obvious. The risks: Urias is 17 and a pitcher. Seager’s played just six games above Single-A. Pederson’s struck out a lot in Albuquerque. It wouldn’t be a surprise for any of them to succeed; it wouldn’t be a surprise for any of them to fail. Prospects, you know?

So let’s look at some somewhat recent research. Here’s Kevin Creagh. Here’s Michael Valancius. I’ll save you some time. The former would give Urias a surplus value around $20 million, and Seager and Pederson surplus values around $35 million. The latter would give Urias a surplus value around $40 million, and Seager and Pederson surplus values around $35 million. There’s agreement with the position players. Maybe, with Urias, you split the middle. Then they’re all in the same range — somewhere between $30 million – $40 million each.

Which is a pretty damn close match for Matt Kemp’s calculated negative value over the life of his contract. Which leads us to a hell of a conclusion: based on these numbers, there’s an argument to be made that it would make sense for the Dodgers to trade Kemp and one of their top prospects for nothing. Kemp’s value is so low, in other words, and prospects are sufficiently risky, that Kemp and a top prospect basically cancel each other out.

A trade, presumably, wouldn’t actually work quite like that. A team that trades for Kemp probably likes Kemp quite a bit, so that team would project him higher. An AL team could move him to DH down the road, if he’s willing to do that. Also, teams would rather have prospects than money, in most cases, so you could foresee some overpaying for the surplus value of a Urias, Seager, or Pederson. The Dodgers, I’m sure, wouldn’t want to trade Kemp and a top prospect for nothing, and they could probably expect to get a little help back. Maybe that would be in the form of a prospect. Maybe that would be in the form of instant help. Maybe Kemp and a top prospect could make up the bulk of a package for a few months of Jon Lester. The Dodgers could always offer to eat a little more money, to make sure they were getting more than just future salary relief.

But this is the status of things. Kemp is somewhat unhappy in Los Angeles, and he seems to be clashing with the field staff. The Dodgers need to make room for one of the better outfield prospects in baseball, and Kemp is owed a lot of money through the next half-decade. He can still hit, but he hasn’t hit like he used to, and he can’t move around like he used to, and he’ll never again be the age that he used to be. Kemp’s market value isn’t close to matching his contract terms, which means if the Dodgers want to deal Kemp away, they have a choice to make. Neither option would be easy to swallow, but there’s no easy way out from a long-term contract albatross. Unless another front office grows incredibly desperate, the Dodgers are going to have to either sacrifice a lot of money, or sacrifice the prospect equivalent.

The Dodgers Shouldn’t Trade for Price or Lester.

Over the last few weeks, the Dodgers have been one of the primary suitors linked to a potential David Price trade, along with the Mariners and Cardinals. However, the Rays hot streak has made Price’s availability an open question, and now, perhaps the more likely scenario is that the team could trade for Jon Lester instead. The Red Sox playoff odds are down to about 3%, and Lester has publicly said that he won’t hold it against the team if they trade when it comes to offseason negotiations for a new contract. Given those two variables, trading Lester makes a lot of sense, and the Dodgers are apparently quite interested in him as well.

I’d like to make a suggestion to Ned Coletti, however: you don’t need to do it. In fact, you probably shouldn’t.

Lester and Price are both terrific pitchers, and certainly any team that adds either one would instantly be a better team than they were before. This isn’t an argument about either one being overrated. They’re really good. The Dodgers simply don’t really need either one.

As it stands, our Playoff Odds model has the as 75% favorites to win the NL West, because they have a game and a half lead over the Giants and our forecasts think the Dodgers are just the better team. If you don’t like using forecast data, though, our season-to-date stats mode — which only accounts for the team’s performance this season — has the Dodgers at about 65% favorites tow in the NL West. Without making a massive upgrade, the Dodgers odds of winning the division are something like 2-in-3 or 3-in-4.

Of course, winning the division is a very valuable outcome now that the Wild Card game exists, and the Dodgers should be interested in minimizing their chances of falling behind San Francisco and having to try to play their way into the division series. Having strong playoff odds in late July is reason to make an upgrade, not a reason to avoid making one. But the Dodgers are extremely likely to make the postseason — both modes give them an 17-18% chance of making the Wild Card game, so their playoff odds are 85% to 95% — and should be looking to make upgrades that will not only get them to October, but help them once they are there. And while both Lester and Price are terrific, it’s not entirely clear that having either one would be the kind of upgrade that would justify the cost of their acquisition.

Let’s start with the scenarios where they don’t win their division and are forced to play in the Wild Card game. We’re talking about a 1-in-6 chance, or something to that effect, but then we have to drill that down to the odds that either Price or Lester would actually pitch in that game. Obviously, the Dodgers would throw Kershaw in that game if he was available, and they might throw Greinke if the other team is better at hitting lefties than righties. Depending on how the team’s rotation shook out and the strengths of the opponent, Price or Lester might not even pitch in that game.

If that scenario shook out, and the team had given up significant future assets to acquire either player, there’s a real chance that the team could lose the Wild Card game without either player taking the field in the postseason. Sure, a Dodgers team with Kershaw on the mound is going to be something like a 55% to 60% favorite over almost any other team they play, especially if the game is in LA, but that leaves a large percentage of outcomes where the Dodgers lose that game and their season ends. And especially with a guy like Lester, you probably don’t want to mortgage the farm for the right to have him sit on the bench and watch the team lose the Wild Card game.

But the Dodgers probably aren’t going to be in that position. Odds are better than they’re going to win the division, or if they do make the Wild Card game, they’ll win it and advance to the division series. Our playoff odds model gives them an 85% chance of advancing to the NLDS, with only the Nationals and Tigers having better odds of reaching the real playoffs. The Dodgers should be planning their roster for an extended playoff series, not just a single elimination game.

But I’m not even sure Lester or Price is a dramatic upgrade there either. Let’s start with the best of five round, and assume that the Dodgers win the division, giving them time to setup their playoff roster by avoiding the Wild Card game. Games 1 and 5 belong to Kershaw, without any controversy. So the only question then is who pitches the middle three games.

Without acquiring another frontline starter, the current setup would be something like Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Josh Beckett. Add Price or Lester, and you’re effectively using them to replace Beckett in that series rotation. What’s the difference between Jon Lester and Josh Beckett in one game?

Lester currently projects as a 3.50 ERA pitcher in the AL East, so move him to the NL West, and you probably have something like a 3.25 ERA pitcher. Beckett projects as a 3.90 ERA guy, so clearly, it’s an upgrade. But of course, neither pitcher is going to be asked to throw nine innings a playoff game, so we’re really looking at their difference over roughly six innings. In Beckett’s case, he’s probably not even likely to be asked to get six in a playoff game, so it’s really more like six innings of Lester versus four innings of Beckett and two innings of the Dodgers bullpen. But, we’ll just keep it simple and stick with six innings of each starter.

Overall, that’s about a .43 runs per game difference in starting Lester instead of Beckett. Using the pythagenpat formula, we can see how that translates into a change in expected winning percentage. Let’s set the Dodgers assumed runs per game to 4.3 — the number doesn’t really matter, but that’s their current BaseRuns expectation — and then compare their expected winning percentage with both starters. With Lester pitching six innings, a 3.25 ERA projection would equal 2.16 runs allowed over that span, and for the sake or this exercise, we’ll assume the Dodgers bullpen would allow one run over three innings after both pitchers leave, so the total forecast for the Dodgers-in-Lester-start is 3.16 runs allowed per game.

Pythagenpat suggests that, at 4.3 runs scored per game and 3.2 runs allowed per game, the Dodgers would be expected to win something like 63.3% of the games Lester starts for them. That’s really good, because he’s good and they’re good. But they’re still good when Beckett pitches too, so replacing Lester with Beckett only pushes the expected winning percentage down to 57.8%. The difference between having a 3.25 ERA starter and a 3.90 ERA starter is about a 5.5% change in expected winning percentage. And that’s in one game of a five game series. The overall improvement in winning the NLDS by swapping out Beckett for Lester is along the lines of a percentage point. Or maybe two percentage points if you think that Beckett would make an amazing reliever and also include the bump the team would get from having him come out of the bullpen for the rest of the series.

Even in a best of seven series, where Lester would get to make two starts, it’s not clear that his presence would be a huge upgrade even then, because you’re still only removing one Josh Beckett start. The second start would come from Hyun-Jin Ryu, who would take over the #4 starter role and only get one start in a seven game series. Lester is better than Ryu, but not Ryu is a lot better than Beckett, and the improvement of odds in a game where you swap out Ryu for Lester is more along the lines of 2%.

I’ve been using Lester as an example, but the results are mostly the same with Price. He’s better, and so the upgrade is more significant, but the again, the cost will be much larger with Price than Lester as well. And the same basic concept holds there too; he’s much better than Beckett, but Beckett’s only pitching one game in a playoff series, even one that goes seven games.

The Dodgers should try to get better, because they have a real chance to win this year, and Clayton Kershaw might not be this version of Clayton Kershaw forever. Hanley Ramirez is a free agent this winter. Greinke has an opt-out after next year. The Dodgers have a window and should go for it, but going for it should result in pursuing players that are significant upgrades. While starters are more valuable than relievers, the Dodgers current pitching staff suggests that the upgrade from swapping out Brian Wilson and Chris Perez with ace reliever types is probably just as large, and maybe larger, as swapping out Beckett for a guy like Lester.

Instead of trying to upgrade their starting pitching, they should be talking to the Red Sox about Andrew Miller and Koji Uehara. Or if they really want to throw their financial muscle around, go take Jonathan Papelbon off the Phillies hands. They have a couple of replacement level setup guys who could easily be swapped out for actual effective relief aces, and that upgrade won’t cost them Joc Pederson or Corey Seager.

Lester or Price make a lot of sense for a team in win-now mode that doesn’t already have Kershaw, Greinke, and Ryu. To acquire either one, the Dodgers would have to outbid teams that have a significantly stronger need for a frontline pitcher. It might be fun to dream about what having three aces in a rotation would be like, but realistically, the Dodgers could get a similar upgrade from just throwing Wilson and Perez overboard and replacing them with a couple of good relief arms.

And if they just really love Jon Lester, well, they can always throw $150 million at him this winter.

A Recent History of the Lawn Dart.

Until yesterday, when I thought of Ryan Raburn, I thought of one thing. A year ago, 399 batters came to the plate at least 150 times. Raburn finished 13th among them in wRC+, right between David Ortiz and Shin-Soo Choo. This year, 322 batters have come to the plate at least 150 times. Raburn ranks 319th among them in wRC+, right between Andrew Romine and Mark Ellis. So, Raburn was one of the very best hitters in the league, and he has also been one of the very worst hitters in the league, and people get upset with defensive statistics for sometimes bouncing around all over the place. There’s nothing inaccurate about Ryan Raburn’s offensive statistics. They’re accurate and weird and stupid.

Now, when I think of Ryan Raburn, I think of two things.



I don’t know how possible it is to get a whole -1 UZR on one play, but Raburn at least explored beyond the frontiers. It’s not his first time trying to get -1 UZR on one play, either. Raburn failed to make the catch on a blooper. In fairness, it was not an easy blooper to catch, particularly if you have Ryan Raburn’s legs. But that wasn’t the end of it. That was half of the end of it. There’s nothing real remarkable about Mike Moustakas hitting a pop-up and getting lucky enough to reach base. But then Raburn tried to throw the baseball, and though he was technically successful in throwing the baseball, he was unsuccessful in handling the baseball as he intended, and the Royals wound up with an improbable run. It wasn’t a run that won them the game, but it was easily a run that could’ve.

When Yoenis Cespedes made that crazy throw, it inspired people to look up other amazing outfield throws. Ryan Raburn threw a lawn dart. Here, then, is a recent and presumably incomplete history of the lawn dart. We’ll begin with the godfather of the genre.

May 3, 2008

Our hero: Raul Ibanez

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This is, without question, the most famous of all recent lawn darts. It arrived just as the Internet was falling back in love with .gifs, and it captured in a nutshell a player who always tried really hard, but who was an obvious liability in the outfield for a team going nowhere. The only way to watch a lot of recent Mariners teams has been by embracing how comically bad they have been, and there couldn’t be a more representative .gif. Monica was advised by her mother in an episode of Friends that she needed to be able to laugh at herself. In order to survive, fans of bad teams learn to laugh at themselves, because it’s the only path that doesn’t lead to abandonment or genuine sadness.

Consequences
The hit was an RBI single by Hideki Matsui. Ibanez’s throw allowed Matsui to advance to second. Two batters later, he scored on a single up the middle. After that single was fielded, both runners moved up another base on a throwing error by Ichiro Suzuki. Following the game, John McLaren held a closed-door meeting and ripped his baseball team apart.

Any quote?
Ibanez:

“When things are going well, the ball sticks in the ground and you pick it up,” Ibanez said. “When things are not going well, it rolls away and the runner advances another base.

“I saw him stop, and I tried to hold up. I should have just thrown the ball.”

Embarrassment Scale
9 out of 10. This is one that lives on in the .gif Hall of Fame, and Ibanez did it to himself. He should have just thrown the ball.

July 31, 2010

Our hero: Melky Cabrera

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I struggled with this one a little bit, because it doesn’t look particularly similar to the classic lawn dart, featured above. The point isn’t to highlight bad throws; the point is to highlight certain kinds of bad throws. But ultimately I decided that this one counts, because the throw didn’t go anywhere but sideways, and it didn’t go sideways very far. Had Cabrera thrown this ball forward, it would’ve been short enough to be a lawn dart, and who says lawn darts can’t have a second thing also go wrong?

Consequences
The hit was an RBI double by Ryan Hanigan. Cabrera’s throw allowed Hanigan to score. The Reds went up 5-2, and it was by that score that they’d win. The Baseball-Reference play log includes the following descriptive note: “Hanigan Scores/Adv on E8 (throw to Hm)”. Cabrera tried to throw the ball to home, and the ball might not have ended up any closer to home than it was when the throw began.

Any quote?
Bobby Cox:

“When he threw it, it just slipped out of his hand,” said Braves manager Bobby Cox.

Jair Jurrjens:

“I was [upset] already from hanging that pitch,” Jurrjens said. “I didn’t really care what happened after that.”

Embarrassment Scale
8.5 out of 10. The one thing I’ll give Cabrera is his heart was in the right place. He was trying to get the ball back to the infield as quickly as possible, and he just didn’t mind his own body in the process. Really, he was never going to get any runner, and he totally forgot to plant his feet, and he threw the ball sideways, but if nothing else, it was an error that came out of hustle. You can’t be totally mad at a guy for hustling.

June 2, 2012

Our hero: Ryan Sweeney

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Ryan Sweeney pump-faked. Then he pump-faked again. Then he slowed down, because there wasn’t any action on the bases. Sweeney tried to casually return the ball to the infield. Instead he returned the ball to right-center field, for literally no reason. There wasn’t any action on the bases until Ryan Sweeney tried to easily return the baseball to the infield. Ryan Sweeney created action on the bases, out of nothing. No part of this had to happen. Sweeney could’ve just walked the ball back. This never should’ve existed. This is like Fresno.

Consequences
The hit was a single by Brett Lawrie. It moved Edwin Encarnacion to second, where he stopped without an aggressive turn. So, ordinarily, this play would’ve ended with one out and runners on first and second. But as Sweeney played fetch with himself, Encarnacion scored, and Lawrie moved up 90 feet. Ryan Sweeney gave the Blue Jays three bases out of the goodness of his heart.

Any quote?
Nothing. Ryan Sweeney probably hasn’t spoken with the media since.

Embarrassment Scale
10 out of 10. Ryan Sweeney just had to do almost literally the easiest thing. There was no threat on the bases. There was no need for hustle. There was no infielder indecision. A hypothetically fixed baseball game would find this too transparent.

September 8, 2012

Our hero: David Wright

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The ultra-rare infielder lawn dart. Because of the number of other players around, there’s less that can go wrong here, and because a lawn-darted infielder throw won’t just roll around forever, there’s less time for people to recognize how humiliating the play was. Wright threw to first base and threw to second base at the same time. As a result, the ball got to neither base.

Consequences
Nothing. I guess the Mets’ pitcher kind of had to break to go back up somewhere as the ball rolled to the shortstop. But no one advanced. It was as if the play never happened.

Any quote?
No

Embarrassment Scale
5 out of 10. It’s a lawn dart, but it’s an easy lawn dart to forget, because it was quick and nothing happened. Wright just thought better of throwing the ball to first, and then it came out of his fingers. It hardly even counts as a blooper, but if nothing else, now those who saw it have been reminded of it. The consequence of this lawn dart is this lawn dart showing up in this post.

October 24, 2012

Our hero: Delmon Young

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Above, we have a lawn dart no one remembers because nothing happened. Here, we have a lawn dart no one remembers because of the greater context. In theory, this should be easily remembered, because Young made a fool of himself in the World Series, but this only happened because Barry Zito knocked an RBI single to left field off of Justin Verlander. The instant that ball reached the outfield grass, Young could’ve fallen into a pit and been eaten by snakes, and nobody would’ve cared because the play would’ve already achieved its improbability ceiling.

Consequences
Nothing happened as a result of Young’s miserable throw. Brandon Belt was going to score anyway, and like hell was Zito going to push his luck by trying to advance another 90 feet. Young just got to reflect a little on his skillset as he returned to his place in left field, but something tells me Young isn’t easily shaken by performing like a pile of crap.

Any quote?
This post

Embarrassment Scale
I’m going with 8 out of 10. I almost went 7, because the throw did actually make it to the catcher, but, look how it made it to the catcher. This is Young’s attempt to nail a base-runner, and I don’t think he was overcome by last-second indecision. Young wanted to nail a guy at the plate, and he made a throw that bounced before it even so much as reached the dirt behind third. Young has a better arm than this, but this looks least like a ball that just slipped out of a guy’s hand.

August 6, 2013

Our hero: Raul Ibanez

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All these other kids trying to make a name for themselves in the lawn-dart business. Raul isn’t having that. This is Ibanez territory, and he didn’t like the idea of people forgetting who started the movement in the first place. In terms of true talent, I don’t think you can read into two lawn darts any more than you can read into one lawn dart, especially when they’re separated by a number of years, but I feel like it has to mean something that Raul has done this two times during the recent MLB.tv era. I feel like he has to be considered accident-prone. At the time of this play he was 41 years old and playing left field.

Consequences
The hit was a double by Edwin Encarnacion. Jose Bautista scored from first, but according to the official scoring, Encarnacion wasn’t given an RBI, because in the scorer’s judgment Bautista would’ve been stopped at third were it not for Ibanez’s spike. Encarnacion held at second base, as the score was 7-0 Blue Jays. I don’t know if it would’ve been against the unwritten rules for Encarnacion to try to move up. This almost feels like it was a test of Encarnacion’s sportsmanship. “Go ahead, go ahead and try it.”

Any quote?
Robby Thompson:

“Mental mistake by [second baseman] Nick Franklin, which caused the throw by [outfielder] Raul Ibanez. Just to clear that up, that’s been talked about, because Raul was throwing the ball to second base, Nick had already vacated to do a double relay at third base, he should’ve stayed at second.”

After the game, Ibanez spoke to Franklin about the miscommunication and Thompson said the second baseman understands why his decision wasn’t optimal.

Embarrassment Scale
7.5 out of 10. It’s an ugly lawn dart, for sure. And it’s not Raul’s first rodeo. But it seems like it was in part because of someone else’s mistake, so I’m not going to assign Ibanez all the blame. At the end of the day, he’s still the guy who let the ball fly out of his own hand, but I can see how it might be hard to stop a throw in the process, just as it is with a swing. Especially when you are 41 years old and less athletic than many of your peers. Nick Franklin should’ve thought of that. “I don’t think my left fielder is very good.” Changes the decision-making.

July 24, 2014

Our hero: Ryan Raburn

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A problem for Mike Moustakas: not enough home runs.

A problem for Mike Moustakas: too many pop-ups.

If only there were some way to-

Consequences
Understand that the lawn dart here is considered independent of the sliding-catch attempt. The first bit of the play put Moustakas comfortably on second base. The second bit of the play sent him the rest of the way counter-clockwise. That snapped a scoreless tie in the bottom of the eighth, charging a(n unearned) run to a pitcher who took a perfect game into the bottom of the seventh. The third-base coach tells the story. And credit to him for paying attention long enough to see immediately that Raburn threw the ball away. With more of a delay, Moustakas might’ve had to stop at third, and who’s to say he would’ve been driven home?

Any quote?
Terry Francona:

“Ray made a really good effort,” Francona said. “Because we were shifting … [third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall] was sprinting back to third. So when Ray came up to throw, he tried to hold up, and the ball came out of his hand. It’s fluky and it cost us a run, but it was just a bunch of guys trying hard to get in the right place.”

Corey Kluber:

“There are weird things that happen in this game,” Kluber said. “It’s just one of those plays.”

Raburn:

“I couldn’t hold up,” he said. “For that to happen, it was a tough one to swallow.”

This fan also issued a quote, although he was heckling the wrong player.

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Fan: WAY TO ALLOW A SOFT FLY BALL
Fan: AFTER BEING PERFECT FOR A LONG TIME

Embarrassment Scale
8.5 out of 10. As with Ibanez just above, it seems there was an infielder factor here, and the lawn dart doesn’t include the missed catch, but it’s the circumstances that really bump this up, what with Moustakas coming all the way around to score late in a close and important game. And I’m not really sure what the hurry was, since Raburn wasn’t exactly going to throw the runner out at second. When the catch was missed, Raburn should’ve just mentally conceded two bases. By trying to make up for one mistake, Raburn just made everything worse, creating a whole run almost out of thin air. It was like a most unwelcome magic trick, which explains why the screenshot above features Corey Kluber wearing an actual, honest-to-God frown. Who frowns?

===

**UPDATE**

So, I made sure to give myself an out when I wrote “presumably incomplete history.” The thing about lawn darts is they aren’t really searchable. There is no lawn-dart database, so I can’t look up the events the way I can with PITCHf/x or the Baseball-Reference Play Index. Still, I’m a little thorough and obsessive and I don’t like leaving things out, so here now are three more lawn darts, noted in the comments or on Twitter. I won’t give them the full written review because I’m not that much of a crazy person.

June 19, 2011

Our hero: Eduardo Nunez

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Embarrassment Scale
7 out of 10. It’s important to be able to separate the lawn dart from the comical disaster that takes place right before, and for Nunez, he made sure to just spike the ball straight down, so it didn’t get away and cost any bases. This is, without a doubt, one of the most magnificent .gifs in the recent history of the game, if not of all games, but there are worse lawn darts. There aren’t worse lawn darts accompanied by clumsy-handed breakdancers.

October 5, 2011

Our hero: Shane Victorino

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Embarrassment Scale
9.5 out of 10. This isn’t a straight-up lawn dart — Victorino’s footing was the first problem — but in this circumstance, he should’ve just held onto the baseball. He didn’t begin his throwing motion until he was already awkwardly horizontal, and the result was that he literally sent the baseball backwards. Victorino had to retrieve the baseball off the wall twice. Used to be, you could tell a National League fan from an American League fan because NL fans saw Victorino as a .gif resource while AL fans were by and large unaware. NL fans knew what they were talking about. Victorino had the .gif potential of Munenori Kawasaki, with the added variables that Victorino plays more and is supposed to be good.

April 1, 2014

Our hero: Jedd Gyorko

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Embarrassment Scale
7 out of 10. In Gyorko’s defense, he was getting a message from the temporary second baseman, and he also had another guy standing like ten feet away in the vicinity of his throwing window. So Gyorko was responding to two stimuli: instruction not to throw the ball, and the appearance of a teammate in accidental bean-ball territory. That nearby teammate was presumably surprising and distracting, and Gyorko would’ve had to adjust at the last second to make sure not to drill him in the face. It wasn’t a good situation for Gyorko to find himself in. But, he had a teammate ten feet away. He had another teammate maybe 25 – 30 feet away. He had Juan Uribe, the baserunner, returning to second base, and not even looking toward third. Gyorko sent the ball from a safe place to no-man’s land. Ian Kennedy subsequently had good sense, but Ian Kennedy has been one of the good ones.


Nights of the Pitcher.

Last night was about the pitchers. Nearly every game had at least one good starting pitcher performance, and many of them we’re not even going to talk about today. Max Scherzer‘s 11 strikeouts? Nope. What about Tyson Ross‘ 11 strikeouts? Nope, not them either. We’re not even going to talk about Jeff Samardzija and Wei-Yin Chen, who combined to allow one run across 16 innings. No, we’re going to talk about the five pitchers who posted a Game Score of 75 or better last night — Corey Kluber, Marcus Stroman, Danny Duffy, Matt Garza and Cole Hamels.

Now, Samardzija and Chen each compiled Game Scores of 74 last night, so you might think I’m splitting hairs with the 75 distinction. And I am. If you would like to let me have it in the comments for the distinction, please, feel free. But in looking at last night’s Game Scores, I came across an interesting item. Last night was the 12th time this season that five such pitchers have compiled a Game Score of 75 or better. That sounds like a lot, right? It is. I went back and looked at the past five years, and found the following:

5+ SPs with Game Score of 75 or better in one day
- 2010: 4
- 2011: 8
- 2012: 2
- 2013: 13
- 2014: 12

Keep in mind, this season has a long ways to go before it reaches its conclusion, and we’re looking at a lot of nights with a lot of dominant pitching. In fact, last night doesn’t even hold a candle to the best day of the season, by at least one measure. That day was April 27. On April 27, starting pitchers posted a 75 Game Score or better nine times:

- Johnny Cueto, 84
- Adam Wainwright, 81
- A.J. Burnett, 80
- Collin McHugh, 80
- Julio Teheran, 79
- Dillon Gee, 78
- Ryan Vogelsong, 77
- Ian Kennedy, 76
- Jason Hammel, 76

That’s hard to do. Of course, last night wasn’t too shabby either. Here is how the Game Scores fell:

- Corey Kluber, 91
- Marcus Stroman, 80
- Danny Duffy, 78
- Matt Garza, 77
- Cole Hamels, 75

Stroman kicked things off north of the border. The Red Sox have frequently fallen to doormat status this season, and yesterday was no exception. Not to take anything away from Stroman. After all, the Sox did post 14 runs on these very same Blue Jays on Monday. Stroman was hitting 96 in the first inning, and from there he kept the Sox off balance all day, as he had a no-hitter entering the seventh. The only member of the Sox who had any success against him was Shane Victorino, who walked in the first inning, and singled off of him in the seventh. Between those two plate appearances, Stroman set down 16 of 17, with Jackie Bradley Jr. walking to become the only other baserunner.

It was an impressive display from Stroman, as he was able to locate all of his pitches for strikes. Stroman did not fare well at all in the bullpen when he was called up initially, but since moving to the rotation he has been basically lights out. He has posted a 2.21 ERA, 2.93 FIP and 3.28 xFIP, and he has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his 10 starts. Among starters with at least 60 innings pitched, Stroman’s ERA ranks seventh, his FIP 17th and his xFIP 25th. In short, he’s making it look easy.

Cole Hamels knows a thing or two about making pitching look easy. Given that he missed the first few weeks and was rusty upon returning and that the Phillies are terrible, no one has really paid Hamels much mind in 2014, but he’s been doing his thing since getting roughed up a couple of times in his first three starts. In those first three starts, he allowed 13 runs in 16.2 innings. Since, he has allowed 27 runs in 105.2 innings, for a 2.04 ERA, 2.80 FIP and 3.00 xFIP. Not too shabby. He had the good fortune yesterday to catch a Giants team that wasn’t at their best — no Brandon Belt, no Angel Pagan — but this is still a team that ranks ninth this season in terms of wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Michael Morse can pound lefties with the best of them, and Brandon Crawford has been even better than that trio this season.

Hamels was having none of it. As Eno Sarris noted on Twitter, Hamels’ velocity was up. And not just a little up either. Take a look:

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Hamels’ average fastball velocity yesterday was the highest its been in three years. Perhaps he just wanted to put forth a good audition for potential trade suitors, even if the Phillies don’t want to deal him for some reason.

Perhaps the extra velocity made his changeup that much more effective. Hamels recorded 11 whiffs on his changeup, which is good even for him. Hamels generally gets whiffs on 29 percent of his changeups, but last night it was 39.3%. He barely gave the Giants air to breathe, as he threw at least 70 percent of his pitches for strikes in each of his eight innings on the bump. The Phillies gave him little margin for error, but on this night that was just fine.

Matt Garza, on the other hand, had plenty of room for error, as the Brewers had essentially thumped the Mets out of their game yesterday by the end of the third inning. That is when their win expectancy climbed back over 90 percent for good. Garza was surely thankful for the assist, but he had things well under hand, as he allowed just two hits and a walk across eight innings of work. Garza is another pitcher who has not attracted much attention this season, and perhaps rightfully so — his K-BB% rate is down 4.1 percent from last year, which would be the biggest drop of his career. On the other hand, there are just 40 qualified pitchers with 2 WAR or more, and Garza is one of them. He’s no star, but he’s no scrub.

Yesterday, he wasn’t completely fooling Mets’ hitters, but he was keeping them off balance. At the extremes, Garza’s fastest pitch was nearly 25 mph faster than his slowest pitch, and he was unpredictable to boot. As you can see here, he started hitters off in just about every quadrant inside and outside the strike zone, and he made an effort to work up and down and left and right pretty much all game.

That was all just a prelude though, for what is likely to be on the short list for game of the season. Corey Kluber never really was a touted prospect, and it’s been a few years since Danny Duffy was one, but they are both prime examples of players succeeding after the hype dies down. Their progress was on full display on Thursday night, as the two put on quite the show. The first 24 batters of the game failed to reach base, and after seven innings, just five players had reached base. Kluber was perfect through six, and Duffy was just as good.

Kluber threw what should have been one of the more memorable victories of his season, but then in the eighth inning this happened:


While that awful, awful, awful throw will assure that the game remains memorable for Kluber and the Indians, it probably isn’t the memory they wanted. Still, it shouldn’t obscure what was a dominant performance for Kluber. Perhaps it is a coding thing, but one of the things that sticks out right away about Kluber’s night is that he went to his four-seam fastball and not his sinker. Looking at his 2014 season page at Brooks Baseball, we see that he’s thrown his four-seamer 14.77% of the time, but last night he tossed his four-seamer 53% of the time. That’s obviously way higher. One of the things that Kluber has improved upon this season is that four-seam fastball. His overall value is low, but per 100 pitches, we have it as the 11th-best in the game among qualified pitchers.

Duffy was just as good. Working primarily off his four-seamer and his curveball, Duffy had everyone fooled, save Carlos Santana. Santana notched the two singles that Duffy allowed. Unlike some of the other pitchers that were so marvelous yesterday, Duffy mainly ignored one whole side of the plate:

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Duffy busted righties in, and lefties out, and Cleveland had no answers. This is essentially the way Duffy works, though looking at his most recent strikezone plots it is apparent that last night he was burying more balls in that down-and-in to righties/down-and-away to lefties area. The fish were clearly biting, otherwise Duffy would have walked more than two batters. In general, this is the continuation of a season-long trend for Duffy. His K-BB% is up three percent this year, and that is mainly attributable to the five percent drop in his walk rate. Duffy’s ultra-low ERA is definitely aided by an ultra-low .232 batting average on balls in play, but he has still improved overall. And last night, he was remarkable.

On most days, two 11-strikeout performances would be a cause for celebration — 11-strikeout games don’t exactly grow on trees. But on Thursday, they were only part of the story. Mssrs. Stroman, Hamels, Garza, Kluber and Duffy put together quite a collective show for the baseball-watching public. While some are off trying to “fix” the offensive decline in the game, I would rather celebrate what we have. Baseball is ever-changing, and before you know it, it’ll change again. Perhaps you prefer five home runs a game, but if you love baseball, you can definitely appreciate these nights — and years — of the pitcher.

Why Are the Phillies Keeping Cole Hamels?

As Jeff noted the other day, there stands to be a very good chance that Jeff Samardzija is the only real impact pitcher traded this month. The Rays keep winning, which reduces their incentive to move David Price. The Red Sox still say they want to re-sign Jon Lester, so trading him mid-season would be counterproductive to that goal. The Royals still think they’re contenders, so they aren’t going to move James Shields. The Padres want to keep Ian Kennedy. Right now, the best pitcher who is actually available is probably Bartolo Colon, who remains an average pitcher by FIP and xFIP but has apparently lost his runner-stranding fairy dust, and so he’s running a 114 ERA- at age-41 and is under contract for another $11 million next year, when he’ll be 42.

If ever there was a time to sell high on a starting pitcher, this would be it. This is maybe the most obvious seller’s market for arms we’ve seen in some time. And yet, in the middle of a golden opportunity, the Phillies have apparently taken this stance:

To date, Phillies telling other teams Cole Hamels is not available.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 22, 2014

I get that the Phillies have their own way of doing things, and they see themselves as a franchise that should reload and not rebuild, but at some point, they have to accept reality.

By winning percentage to date, the Phillies .431 mark ranks 26th in baseball. Their pythag expected record of .434 ranks 27th. Their BaseRuns expected record of .432 ranks 28th. Their projected rest of season winning percentage of .451 ranks 29th, one one-thousandth of a point ahead of the Astros. No matter how you evaluate performance, this team is terrible, and they have no real chance to be not terrible any time soon. The Phillies are currently in the same position as the Astros, White Sox, and Cubs, only without the whole stockpiling young talent and planning for the future part.

No team in recent history has been more in need of a total fire sale than the 2014 Phillies. This roster cost $180 million to build, but is no better than an Astros roster that cost 25 percent of that total and is openly not trying to win. And yet, when staring a gift horse of a huge seller’s market in the face, the Phillies are apparently going to hold on to their most valuable trade chip; a high quality starting pitcher, and one of the few players on their team that isn’t ridiculously overpaid.

Of course, rebuilding teams have to keep some players around, and it makes sense to keep guys who have real long-term value in the fold. But Cole Hamels isn’t really young and he should only be expected to decline in value as the days tick by. Is there really any scenario in which Hamels is going to have more value to the Phillies in the future than he does as a trade chip right now?

After all, his contract isn’t that cheap. Over the next four seasons, he’s due $22.5 million per year in salary, and there’s a $6 million buyout on a fifth year, which means that any team acquiring Hamels would be signing up for either 4/$96M or 5/$109M in future commitments. Is Hamels really worth significantly more than that? For his career, he’s been worth roughly +4 WAR per 200 innings pitched, with his recent performances all in that same range.

Even if we don’t age him forward much for 2015 and assume he’ll begin next year as a +4 WAR pitcher, that means he’d project for about +15 WAR over the next five seasons. Even if we assume that wins will cost about $7 million apiece this winter and account for future inflation, a fair market estimate of Hamels’ value is about $114 million over five years, or $97 million over four if the buyout is exercised. Basically, Hamels is being paid almost exactly the expected market rate for wins. Why on earth should one of the five worst teams in baseball be unwilling to move a market rate contract for a pitcher headed for his decline years? Especially when the trade market would make Hamels far more valuable now than he will be this winter, or likely even next year?

Apparently, the Phillies learned nothing from their actions with Cliff Lee. By not trading Lee last summer, when there was real interest in his services, the Phillies are now in a position where they are going to have to either pay him to pitch for another team or accept very little talent in return, and if he doesn’t pitch well the next few weeks, maybe even both. A year ago, the Phillies had a very attractive trade chip in an excellent but expensive starting pitcher, and now they have something very close to a negative value asset who can’t help them win and won’t bring back any significant players to rebuild around.

There’s no reason to make the same mistake with Hamels. The 2015 Phillies are going to be terrible with or without him, and the 2016-2019 Phillies are almost certainly going to be better if the Phillies move him for some young talent and reallocate that $22 million per year in salary to other, younger players. Hamels is a depreciating asset, with the entirety of his $5 million in total contract surplus value tied to his 2015 performance. Hamels has about 18 months left of trade value, and then the decline in skills should erode most of the interest in other teams’ desires to take that contract off the Phillies hands.

There is almost no foreseeable scenario under which the Phillies should not trade Hamels at some point in the next 18 months. The only question is when they should trade him to maximize their return. And it’s very difficult to imagine any market setting up better to sell a pitcher like Hamels than one in which a bunch of teams had talked themselves into trading the farm for David Price, only to find out that David Price is no longer available. The Phillies could easily market Hamels as Price-with-more-future-control, as they’ve been very similar pitchers over the last three years. They probably wouldn’t get as much in return for Hamels as the Rays would for Price — teams would likely rather not have the extra guaranteed years, which tells you something about the future value of those years — but they’d be able to command a pretty decent haul, and free up all of the remaining money owed for reallocation.

There’s a lot of should-be sellers who are refusing to enter the market, but the Phillies aren’t even being indignant about their place in the standings. They’re going to make a bunch of trades over the next week, as they acknowledge that their current roster is just not good enough to keep together. But during a time when they’re going to be selling off multiple players and admitting that it might finally be time to start to rebuild, they’re going to keep their most valuable trade chip at a time when the demand for his services will never be higher?

It’s fine to be committed to winning. Part of that commitment is understanding what to do when Plan A didn’t work, however. Going stubbornly in the direction of a brick wall isn’t being committed to winning. It’s setting yourself up for a disaster.
 
Phillies need to get rid of Ruben Amaro Jr asap i don't understand why they didn't make this move yet. 
 
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