- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
YES
GET RID OF THAT USC BUM
NOW
GET RID OF THAT USC BUM
NOW
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
What an odd trade.
Jon Lester and the A’s Fascinating Big Bet On 2014.
Well, this was probably not what we thought a Jon Lester trade was going to look like. After speculating about which team would unload their farm system for a rental, the answer is none of them; instead, the A’s used Yoenis Cespedes to land the Red Sox ace, and picked up Jonny Gomes as a replacement for the right-handed slugger they just traded away. This is a fascinating deal from a lot of angles, but let’s focus on the A’s side of things for a second.
Very clearly, the A’s believe that they can win the World Series this year, and are aligning their roster to give themselves the best chance to do that. And this is probably the perfect storm for the a team in the A’s position to go for it; the Red Sox are bad, the Yankees are mediocre, the Phillies are awful, and the Cubs and Mets are still rebuilding. There is no $200 million behemoth standing in the A’s way this year, at least not unless the Dodgers get to the World Series, and it isn’t clear that the Dodgers are better than the A’s anyway. The Angels and Tigers are still around, but the Angels might have to play their way in through the Wild Card game, and the Tigers pitching staff looks a little less fearsome than it has in past years.
The A’s are in go-for-it mode not just because of their own roster this year, but because this is the kind of year in which it makes sense for a small-market team to push their chips and try to take advantage of the league’s parity. It’s why Jeff wrote that Lester to Pittsburgh would make sense. The door is open for a low-revenue team to have a parade this winter, and the A’s are responding to that opportunity by trying to kick the door in.
It’s why they gave up Addison Russell for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, and it’s why they’re now giving up the final year and a half of Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester. The A’s are in serious win-now mode, and are making the moves they can to put their best team on the field this October. And they’ll figure out next year next year. Given the opportunity, the overall approach makes sense.
But let’s talk about the specifics, because the devil is in always in the details. The A’s are a better team with Lester and Gomes than they are with Cespedes, but how much better, really?
I think some of my reservations about why the Dodgers shouldn’t pursue Lester or David Price apply here, really. As I noted in that piece, the Dodgers would essentially be replacing an average big league pitcher with a good starter for one game in the division series, and then if they got to round two, they’d replace that average starter for one start and then Lester would force a good starter to make just one start instead of two for the next two rounds. The A’s rotation presents a similar issue.
Before this deal, the A’s October rotation was Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jason Hammel. Hammel’s been lousy over three starts with the A’s, and this trade just kicked him out of the playoff rotation, with Lester probably sliding into the #1 spot and pushing everyone else back by a game. So, the first round upgrade is Lester for Hammel in one start, and then Lester for Samardzija in a second start. The first upgrade is legitimate, even if Hammel is clearly better than he’s pitched for Oakland, and about the same as the Dodgers would have gotten by swapping out Josh Beckett. The second upgrade is pretty small, as the gap between Lester and Samardzija just isn’t that large.
And in the LCS or the World Series, this pushes Scott Kazmir back to only making one start instead of two. And I just don’t know how if that’s any real upgrade, to be honest. Since Kazmir re-emerged as a big league starter at the beginning of last year, here are his totals compared to Lester.
2013-2014 ERA- FIP- xFIP-
Lester 79 79 90
Kazmir 85 89 86
Are the A’s more likely to win a game with Lester starting and Gomes in left field than they are with Kazmir starting and Cespedes in left field? I’m not sure, and even if they are, it’s not a significant upgrade. For the second and third round of the playoffs, the entirety of the upgrade is replacing one Jason Hammel start with one Jon Lester start, basically. It’s not nothing, but this is a less impactful deal than the Samardazija acquisition, especially considering it takes an above average player off the A’s roster in the games when Lester isn’t pitching.
Cespedes probably isn’t as good as his reputation, which has been enhances with some crazy throws and a couple of home run derby titles. After a monster first year in Oakland, he’s settled in as more of a good player than a great one. Even with the big performance in 2011, his career wRC+ is 117, and the crazy great arm mostly just offsets the fact that he’s not a particularly great defensive outfielder. Overall, he’s an above average hitter and an above average left fielder, but that makes him roughly a +3 WAR player, and not any kind of star.
But that’s still part of the calculation here. The A’s basically just traded a +3 WAR outfielder for a +4 WAR starting pitcher, but in the postseason, the +4 WAR pitcher is going to replace a +2 WAR starter. If Coco Crisp and Craig Gentry are both healthy in October, then perhaps the outfield downgrade won’t completely offset the pitching upgrade, but Crisp is not healthy right now and Gentry hasn’t been for most of the year. If either one is unable to play full-time in October, then the A’s outfield downgrade may actually be larger than their pitching upgrade, since Gomes is just not very good.
This Samardzija trade was the A’s giving up significant future value for a significant short-term gain. This is not that. This is a good team moving pieces around to become a different kind of good team, and maybe improving on the margins if everything goes right. Of course, giving up the final year of Cespedes’ contract — at $10.5 million, he’s a bit of a value, but not some kind of crazy steal — isn’t the same thing as trading six years of Addison Russell either. In exchange for a minor 2014 upgrade, the A’s gave up a piece with limited future value as well, though we also have to account for the draft pick going to Boston and the potential draft pick that could have been gained by keeping Cespedes and making him a qualifying offer after next year.
And when you add in those two factors, I’m not sure I really like this deal for the A’s that much, to be honest. I’m with them on the win-this-year plan, and get why they’re pushing their chips in on their 2014 roster. But I don’t know how much better this deal makes them in 2014, to be honest. This is a blockbuster trade in terms of name value, but one that doesn’t really move the needle much at all. Acquiring Samardzija and Hammel moved the needle. This nudges it a little.
For the Red Sox, this trade makes all the sense in the world. They don’t want to rebuild, and now they have a power-hitting right-handed corner outfielder under contract for next year’s shot at redemption. They’ll likely still make another run at re-signing Lester, and they’ll get at least one draft pick from this deal, and maybe two if they let Cespedes walk after giving him a qualifying offer next year. A couple of draft picks and an underpriced year of a quality big league outfielder is a nice return for a couple of a rental.
For the A’s, the idea makes sense, and this was probably their only real way left to upgrade their roster, given the lack of quality players on the market right now. I’m just not so sure the short-term value is really there. Swapping out Cespedes for Lester makes them a little bit better, especially if they didn’t trust Kazmir to be at full strength in the postseason, but this is more of a minor upgrade than any kind of huge improvement. They didn’t pay like it was a huge improvement, so it’s not some kind of irresponsible overpay, but I guess I just don’t see the reward here that I saw in the Samardzija deal.
It’s a splashy trade that probably won’t matter much. And that’s one of the reasons why the whole thing is just so interesting.
Very clearly, the A’s believe that they can win the World Series this year, and are aligning their roster to give themselves the best chance to do that. And this is probably the perfect storm for the a team in the A’s position to go for it; the Red Sox are bad, the Yankees are mediocre, the Phillies are awful, and the Cubs and Mets are still rebuilding. There is no $200 million behemoth standing in the A’s way this year, at least not unless the Dodgers get to the World Series, and it isn’t clear that the Dodgers are better than the A’s anyway. The Angels and Tigers are still around, but the Angels might have to play their way in through the Wild Card game, and the Tigers pitching staff looks a little less fearsome than it has in past years.
The A’s are in go-for-it mode not just because of their own roster this year, but because this is the kind of year in which it makes sense for a small-market team to push their chips and try to take advantage of the league’s parity. It’s why Jeff wrote that Lester to Pittsburgh would make sense. The door is open for a low-revenue team to have a parade this winter, and the A’s are responding to that opportunity by trying to kick the door in.
It’s why they gave up Addison Russell for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, and it’s why they’re now giving up the final year and a half of Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester. The A’s are in serious win-now mode, and are making the moves they can to put their best team on the field this October. And they’ll figure out next year next year. Given the opportunity, the overall approach makes sense.
But let’s talk about the specifics, because the devil is in always in the details. The A’s are a better team with Lester and Gomes than they are with Cespedes, but how much better, really?
I think some of my reservations about why the Dodgers shouldn’t pursue Lester or David Price apply here, really. As I noted in that piece, the Dodgers would essentially be replacing an average big league pitcher with a good starter for one game in the division series, and then if they got to round two, they’d replace that average starter for one start and then Lester would force a good starter to make just one start instead of two for the next two rounds. The A’s rotation presents a similar issue.
Before this deal, the A’s October rotation was Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jason Hammel. Hammel’s been lousy over three starts with the A’s, and this trade just kicked him out of the playoff rotation, with Lester probably sliding into the #1 spot and pushing everyone else back by a game. So, the first round upgrade is Lester for Hammel in one start, and then Lester for Samardzija in a second start. The first upgrade is legitimate, even if Hammel is clearly better than he’s pitched for Oakland, and about the same as the Dodgers would have gotten by swapping out Josh Beckett. The second upgrade is pretty small, as the gap between Lester and Samardzija just isn’t that large.
And in the LCS or the World Series, this pushes Scott Kazmir back to only making one start instead of two. And I just don’t know how if that’s any real upgrade, to be honest. Since Kazmir re-emerged as a big league starter at the beginning of last year, here are his totals compared to Lester.
2013-2014 ERA- FIP- xFIP-
Lester 79 79 90
Kazmir 85 89 86
Are the A’s more likely to win a game with Lester starting and Gomes in left field than they are with Kazmir starting and Cespedes in left field? I’m not sure, and even if they are, it’s not a significant upgrade. For the second and third round of the playoffs, the entirety of the upgrade is replacing one Jason Hammel start with one Jon Lester start, basically. It’s not nothing, but this is a less impactful deal than the Samardazija acquisition, especially considering it takes an above average player off the A’s roster in the games when Lester isn’t pitching.
Cespedes probably isn’t as good as his reputation, which has been enhances with some crazy throws and a couple of home run derby titles. After a monster first year in Oakland, he’s settled in as more of a good player than a great one. Even with the big performance in 2011, his career wRC+ is 117, and the crazy great arm mostly just offsets the fact that he’s not a particularly great defensive outfielder. Overall, he’s an above average hitter and an above average left fielder, but that makes him roughly a +3 WAR player, and not any kind of star.
But that’s still part of the calculation here. The A’s basically just traded a +3 WAR outfielder for a +4 WAR starting pitcher, but in the postseason, the +4 WAR pitcher is going to replace a +2 WAR starter. If Coco Crisp and Craig Gentry are both healthy in October, then perhaps the outfield downgrade won’t completely offset the pitching upgrade, but Crisp is not healthy right now and Gentry hasn’t been for most of the year. If either one is unable to play full-time in October, then the A’s outfield downgrade may actually be larger than their pitching upgrade, since Gomes is just not very good.
This Samardzija trade was the A’s giving up significant future value for a significant short-term gain. This is not that. This is a good team moving pieces around to become a different kind of good team, and maybe improving on the margins if everything goes right. Of course, giving up the final year of Cespedes’ contract — at $10.5 million, he’s a bit of a value, but not some kind of crazy steal — isn’t the same thing as trading six years of Addison Russell either. In exchange for a minor 2014 upgrade, the A’s gave up a piece with limited future value as well, though we also have to account for the draft pick going to Boston and the potential draft pick that could have been gained by keeping Cespedes and making him a qualifying offer after next year.
And when you add in those two factors, I’m not sure I really like this deal for the A’s that much, to be honest. I’m with them on the win-this-year plan, and get why they’re pushing their chips in on their 2014 roster. But I don’t know how much better this deal makes them in 2014, to be honest. This is a blockbuster trade in terms of name value, but one that doesn’t really move the needle much at all. Acquiring Samardzija and Hammel moved the needle. This nudges it a little.
For the Red Sox, this trade makes all the sense in the world. They don’t want to rebuild, and now they have a power-hitting right-handed corner outfielder under contract for next year’s shot at redemption. They’ll likely still make another run at re-signing Lester, and they’ll get at least one draft pick from this deal, and maybe two if they let Cespedes walk after giving him a qualifying offer next year. A couple of draft picks and an underpriced year of a quality big league outfielder is a nice return for a couple of a rental.
For the A’s, the idea makes sense, and this was probably their only real way left to upgrade their roster, given the lack of quality players on the market right now. I’m just not so sure the short-term value is really there. Swapping out Cespedes for Lester makes them a little bit better, especially if they didn’t trust Kazmir to be at full strength in the postseason, but this is more of a minor upgrade than any kind of huge improvement. They didn’t pay like it was a huge improvement, so it’s not some kind of irresponsible overpay, but I guess I just don’t see the reward here that I saw in the Samardzija deal.
It’s a splashy trade that probably won’t matter much. And that’s one of the reasons why the whole thing is just so interesting.
- Mar 2, 2011
- 30,498
- 5,958
- May 10, 2009
- 31,834
- 18,383
I've always heard that Lester was planning on going back to Boston next season
- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
Tell us more...
- Mar 2, 2011
- 30,498
- 5,958
Not sure...sounds like it might be Willingham but could also be Hicks :x nothing solid from the Twins side yet.
finallyfamous
hell yea man, even if the Yankees don't do anything 
finallyfamous
hell yea man, even if the Yankees don't do anything
- Mar 2, 2011
- 30,498
- 5,958
Are the Tribe gonna do anything?
I'll trade Wiggins for Trout.
I'll trade Wiggins for Trout.
- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
The USC stench is nearly gone from our roster 
Ship Ryan Cook's *** out too.
Ship Ryan Cook's *** out too.
- Jan 19, 2002
- 23,412
- 5,523
Only a 2 month rental, but being that cespedes would opt out next year, doesn't make it THAT bad since they were gonna lose him anyways. Oakland is all in for this year
- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
Blah.
- Nov 26, 2007
- 10,121
- 4,219
Lester says he wants to finish his career with Boston
Boston probably won't give him the contract he wants but the Yankees definitely will
Boston probably won't give him the contract he wants but the Yankees definitely will
- Oct 16, 2006
- 3,486
- 93
The A's were giving away Cespedes t-shirts on Saturday too; this saddens me.
Even if Lester doesn't re-sign (which he won't), this is the A's rotation next year:
-Samardzija
-Gray
-Kazmir
-Parker
-Griffin
Still pretty damn good. They'll save $10.5 mil on Cespedes next year, and can replenish the lineup (hopefully with a second baseman). The window is still open for 2015, but the future is grim after that.
Even if Lester doesn't re-sign (which he won't), this is the A's rotation next year:
-Samardzija
-Gray
-Kazmir
-Parker
-Griffin
Still pretty damn good. They'll save $10.5 mil on Cespedes next year, and can replenish the lineup (hopefully with a second baseman). The window is still open for 2015, but the future is grim after that.
- Jan 20, 2002
- 54,301
- 31,850
cespedes gone for a one year rental? :x
guess they going all in this yr knowing they wont have cespedes when his time comes to be paid
guess they going all in this yr knowing they wont have cespedes when his time comes to be paid
Last edited:
- Jul 18, 2012
- 20,396
- 14,184
Are A's fans convincing themselves that Cespedes was a lock to leave, or are they trying to justify this horrible deal?
I mean, the rotation is FILTHY....but I think Beane blew it.
I mean, the rotation is FILTHY....but I think Beane blew it.
- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
He was a lock to leave. He loves playing in the spotlight, and that is not Oakland. And Billy wasn't going to pay a 30 year old with a ~.800 OPS and zero plate discipline serious money to **** up a defensive play and recover about half the time.
- Oct 31, 2008
- 2,312
- 214
bro he was a lock to leave for sure...A's dont give out those big type deals, just dont do it
definitely not a "horrible" trade... the upgrade in the rotation compared to the drop off from Cespedes to Gomes is not comparable
jewbacca
Banned
- Jan 27, 2013
- 3,349
- 508
When a team is willing to move a player like Cespedes, I think it says a lot how the A's front office views his development going forward.
Very similar to when NFL teams don't want to sign their own free agents.
Very similar to when NFL teams don't want to sign their own free agents.
It's not like Beane to pay what he'll probably demand. Filthy rotations have been rolling in the playoffs the last few years.
- Aug 2, 2006
- 34,127
- 29,466
Yoenis Cespedes entertainment value> baseball value.
Loosing him doesn't seem like that big of a deal.
Loosing him doesn't seem like that big of a deal.
- Jul 18, 2012
- 20,396
- 14,184
Yall are right about Beane and his philosophy....that being said, Is Josh Donaldson arbitration elgible, or should we also count down to when he's shipped out for prospects? Making 500k, and he's got a HUGE payday on the horizon.
- Status
