2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Washington is Boras' go to team but that kid Marrero they have in the minors they say he's the 1B of the future. Plus, they play Morse there sometimes.

I've actually come to either having Kemp or Halladay win it right now. Upton and Braun right behind em.

I think the more Boston fans blame Theo for the lack of pitching depth, the more he may become attracted to the Cubs job. TBH, what else does he have to accomplish in Boston? He could be a God in Chicago and have the same kind of bank roll to play with.
 
In terms of Prince, I could see Washington, Baltimore, or St. Louis (Albert replacement) land his services. It's kind of sad Milwaukee won't be able to retain him, that 1-2 punch with Braun is sure fun to watch.

The NL is similar to the AL for me with deserving candidates and little differentiation between them. I would go with Upton, mainly because he was instrumental in Arizona's monumental turn-around. Kemp and Prince/Braun second and third respectively on my ballot. The other thing is Upton performed this well without another big bat like Prince/Braun and with more success (wins) than Kemp.

I'm a bit surprised by Roy for NL MVP? He probably won't even take the Cy Young for Kershaw, but more so because I know you're against pitchers winning the MVP award.

I think Theo has to accept the new challenge if Chicago throws a 5-year/$25 million contract at him.
 
In terms of Prince, I could see Washington, Baltimore, or St. Louis (Albert replacement) land his services. It's kind of sad Milwaukee won't be able to retain him, that 1-2 punch with Braun is sure fun to watch.

The NL is similar to the AL for me with deserving candidates and little differentiation between them. I would go with Upton, mainly because he was instrumental in Arizona's monumental turn-around. Kemp and Prince/Braun second and third respectively on my ballot. The other thing is Upton performed this well without another big bat like Prince/Braun and with more success (wins) than Kemp.

I'm a bit surprised by Roy for NL MVP? He probably won't even take the Cy Young for Kershaw, but more so because I know you're against pitchers winning the MVP award.

I think Theo has to accept the new challenge if Chicago throws a 5-year/$25 million contract at him.
 
I would love to see Milwaukee move Braun to first and get another OF bat.  That would help them try to start to ease the pain of losing Prince.  But if I'm Fielder, I go to Toronto and try and bring that team to the postseason.

I agree that the NL is close as well but I look at Upton and see that his home/road splits are an awful lot like CarGo's was last year.  Not as bad but you can see the similarities.  Plus, he may not have the lineup support but the pitching has been stellar pretty much 1-5 in that rotation.  If the argument of Braun having a big bat in Prince hurts him, wouldn't that same argument knock Ellsbury/Granderson down a few pegs and make Bautista look a lot more impressive?

As phenomenal as Kershaw/Verlander/Lee have been, I think Halladay proved even more this year he's the best pitcher on the planet.  As with the Verlander/CC argument, you put Halladay and Kershaw next to each other and start adjusting for home ball parks and competition, makes Halladay's #'s look even more impressive to me.  He's having one of the best years ever for a pitcher.  Put up the stats of those four/five head to head, hopefully it all comes out looking decent
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Roy HalladayPhillies19603232233.28.471.350.390.29878.10%50.90%5.10%2.352.22.78.2
CC SabathiaYankees19803333237.18.722.310.640.31877.00%46.60%8.40%32.873.027
Justin VerlanderTigers245034342518.962.040.860.23680.30%40.20%8.80%2.42.993.127
Clayton KershawDodgers21503333233.19.572.080.580.26978.60%43.20%6.70%2.282.472.846.9
Cliff LeePhillies16803131226.29.211.670.680.29281.40%46.60%8.70%2.382.592.696.7
Look at Roy next to those guys and tell me how great he is.

BTW Champ, I'd wanna bounce this off you and the rest of the regulars for that matter.  Is this even Verlander's best season of his career?
 
I would love to see Milwaukee move Braun to first and get another OF bat.  That would help them try to start to ease the pain of losing Prince.  But if I'm Fielder, I go to Toronto and try and bring that team to the postseason.

I agree that the NL is close as well but I look at Upton and see that his home/road splits are an awful lot like CarGo's was last year.  Not as bad but you can see the similarities.  Plus, he may not have the lineup support but the pitching has been stellar pretty much 1-5 in that rotation.  If the argument of Braun having a big bat in Prince hurts him, wouldn't that same argument knock Ellsbury/Granderson down a few pegs and make Bautista look a lot more impressive?

As phenomenal as Kershaw/Verlander/Lee have been, I think Halladay proved even more this year he's the best pitcher on the planet.  As with the Verlander/CC argument, you put Halladay and Kershaw next to each other and start adjusting for home ball parks and competition, makes Halladay's #'s look even more impressive to me.  He's having one of the best years ever for a pitcher.  Put up the stats of those four/five head to head, hopefully it all comes out looking decent
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Roy HalladayPhillies19603232233.28.471.350.390.29878.10%50.90%5.10%2.352.22.78.2
CC SabathiaYankees19803333237.18.722.310.640.31877.00%46.60%8.40%32.873.027
Justin VerlanderTigers245034342518.962.040.860.23680.30%40.20%8.80%2.42.993.127
Clayton KershawDodgers21503333233.19.572.080.580.26978.60%43.20%6.70%2.282.472.846.9
Cliff LeePhillies16803131226.29.211.670.680.29281.40%46.60%8.70%2.382.592.696.7
Look at Roy next to those guys and tell me how great he is.

BTW Champ, I'd wanna bounce this off you and the rest of the regulars for that matter.  Is this even Verlander's best season of his career?
 
Upton deserves the NL MVP. 2nd would be Kemp.

I dont like pitchers winning the MVP either but Verlander is making it hard to choose someone else.
 
Chicago must be cursed if they're considering throwing that kind of money at Theo Epstein. Most overrated sports executive in America.


AL
Bautista
Ellsbury
Verlander

NL
Kemp
Braun
Halladay (STILL the best pitcher in baseball)
As for Verlander, his performance is not really better than what he did in 2009. He's been luckier, and the defense has been a lot better, but it's not like his stuff has magically improved; same pitches with the same frequency.
 
Upton deserves the NL MVP. 2nd would be Kemp.

I dont like pitchers winning the MVP either but Verlander is making it hard to choose someone else.
 
Chicago must be cursed if they're considering throwing that kind of money at Theo Epstein. Most overrated sports executive in America.


AL
Bautista
Ellsbury
Verlander

NL
Kemp
Braun
Halladay (STILL the best pitcher in baseball)
As for Verlander, his performance is not really better than what he did in 2009. He's been luckier, and the defense has been a lot better, but it's not like his stuff has magically improved; same pitches with the same frequency.
 
"More years? !+%* more years. I want more money. I don't work here for years. No, I want more money. Years? What, I'm going to die poor with the White Sox? Hell, no. … Life is about money. People don't believe that. People are happy after they make money."
All-time great quote.
 
"More years? !+%* more years. I want more money. I don't work here for years. No, I want more money. Years? What, I'm going to die poor with the White Sox? Hell, no. … Life is about money. People don't believe that. People are happy after they make money."
All-time great quote.
 
Keith Laws award picks.

Spoiler [+]
I've listed my hypothetical ballots, along with some explanations of the rankings and my philosophy on each award, for the five major postseason awards for which I don't have an official vote. I do have an official ballot for the NL Cy Young Award, so I won't discuss that one until the award itself is announced in November. Those same names would appear on my NL MVP ballot if I had one, so I'll only discuss the position players for that award rather than implicitly give you my NL Cy rankings, with the qualifier that I'd have the same MVP choice even with the pitchers included.
[h3]NL MVP[/h3]
1. Matt Kemp, CF, LA Dodgers
2. Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee
3. Justin Upton, RF, Arizona
4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado
5. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati
6. Shane Victorino, CF, Philadelphia

Kemp went off in September to create some separation between himself and the handful of other top candidates for this award, and if he doesn't win it, it would be a travesty. He's nearly a full win ahead of Braun in FanGraphs' wins above replacement (8.2 to 7.3) and over two wins ahead in Baseball-Reference's version of WAR (9.7 to 7.6). He plays a tougher position than Braun, which is factored into WAR, and plays center better than Braun plays left. Kemp put up roughly the same offensive numbers as Braun despite facing much tougher pitching than Braun did; four of the bottom six NL pitching staffs (by ERA) are in the NL Central.

I've listed only six names because I'd have four pitchers on my ballot, but as I said above, Kemp would still be at the top. Victorino does deserve some mention here for how far under the radar his season has gone, between lower playing time around an injury and lack of name value compared to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley or their starting pitchers, but a line of .278 AVG/.354 OBP/.487 SLG from a center fielder who adds value with his arm, glove and legs, even in a good hitter's park, is extremely valuable. Prince Fielder misses the cut as a below-average defender at first base, which drags down the value he generates with his bat.

I imagine this, and the ballot below, will prompt the annual torrent of replies claiming that a player shouldn't win the MVP award if his team isn't in the playoffs. I have long found this line of thinking -- that production matters only if it's in the spotlight, that a player's value is somehow affected by the quality of his teammates, or that there's more "pressure" to playing on a good team than a bad one -- to be juvenile. This is what kids think about the game, because it's what they hear in the newspapers; I certainly thought this way when I was younger, because it was the only line of thinking to which I'd been exposed. The idea that your production as a baseball player matters only if your team succeeds is as dated as the idea that the guy with the most RBIs should win this award. Value is value, no matter who hits ahead of you in the order.


[h3]NL ROY[/h3]
1. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Atlanta
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta
3. Wilson Ramos, C, Washington

I hate the idea of giving the Rookie of the Year award to a reliever because it is so likely to end up looking like a bad selection a few years down the line. Relievers have peaks that tend to be short and their year-to-year performance is volatile, so in the ideal scenario this award would go to someone likely to emerge as a star down the road. But the NL rookie class this year just didn't produce a strong enough contender to top Kimbrel, who ends up a default choice here.

Freeman, Ramos and Danny Espinosa had their chances, and Freeman at least has some potential to be an above-average regular for a long time; I'd rather see him win the award, speaking as a fan of the game, but I can't vote (or pretend-vote) as a fan. We have an overflow of candidates in the AL, but a shortage here in the NL.


[h3]AL MVP[/h3]
1. Jose Bautista, 3B/RF, Toronto
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston
3. Curtis Granderson, CF, NY Yankees
4. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit
5. CC Sabathia, LHP, NY Yankees
6. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston
7. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas
8. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit
9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston
10. Alex Avila, C, Detroit

You could call the first two 1 and 1A, and if either wins, it's perfectly defensible. If you believe Ellsbury has become one of the elite defensive center fielders in the game -- a reasonable assertion -- then he's your guy. If not, and you believe Bautista should get some credit back on defense for a midyear position switch, as I do, then Bautista and his league-best offensive line would be the call. The Ellsbury narrative has been hilarious to watch, from a game-winning three-run homer (off a 4A pitcher) on Sunday to a game-losing fumble in center field on Monday. I just don't see Toronto's status as a noncontender, or as a Canadian city, any reason not to acknowledge Bautista's amazing season.

As for Verlander, I have never had any objection to a pitcher winning an MVP award. They are absolutely eligible for it under the rules. And it is possible for a pitcher to be the Most Valuable Player in the league -- Pedro Martinez was at least once, for example. But in this case, Verlander isn't the right choice at the top. He's more than a win behind Ellsbury and Bautista in FanGraphs' WAR, which adjusts for Verlander's low BABIP this year -- I'll get into that in the next section -- and doesn't even take into account the soft competition in the Comedy Central division. (Baseball-Reference has Verlander even with Bautista in WAR but doesn't make either of those adjustments.)


[h3]AL Cy Young Award[/h3]
1. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit
2. CC Sabathia, LHP, NY Yankees
3. Dan Haren, RHP, LA Angels
4. C.J. Wilson, LHP, Texas
5. David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay

My prediction here is that Verlander wins this with at least 28 of the 30 votes, although after the homer-voter episode in 2007, when two Detroit writers gave Magglio Ordonez first-place votes while Alex Rodriguez swept the rest of the league, it would be amusing to see New York writers turn the table. Verlander and Sabathia are at a dead heat in FanGraphs' WAR, which adjusts for help from defense and bullpens and for the very different ballparks in which these two pitchers pitch half their games, but doesn't credit Sabathia for facing tougher competition over the course of the season. As with the AL MVP, we have two more or less equally valid choices, but unlike the AL MVP, one guy is going to win this award by a huge margin. I put Price over Jered Weaver due to level of competition, and because Weaver, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, gets an unusual amount of help from his home park and two other huge parks in the AL West -- he threw 141 innings this year in those three parks (at home, in Oakland and in Seattle) and the standard park adjustment probably doesn't adequately address how much this benefits him.


[h3]AL ROY[/h3]
1. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle
2. Michael Pineda, RHP, Seattle
3. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City

Jeremy Hellickson is probably the main name omitted here, and he could end up winning this award. But so much of his success this year is based on help from Tampa Bay's outstanding defense; no matter what you believe about a pitcher's ability to control the results of balls in play, Hellickson's .222 BABIP is so far from the normal range for starters that at least a large chunk of the credit has to go to his teammates (or perhaps just to good fortune). With awards voting, I don't believe in assuming the pitcher should keep all the credit when everything we know about the relationship between pitching and defense says that at least a good portion of it should be directed elsewhere. This AL rookie crop was stacked -- Brett Lawrie and Desmond Jennings would almost certainly have appeared iif they had spent more time in the majors, and Ivan Nova will probably garner a few old-school votes based on his pitcher-win total. Hosmer's bat has been very good, but even if you zero out his defense, he still doesn' pass Ackley.

Ozzie brings his show to Florida.

Spoiler [+]
The Marlins have wanted Ozzie Guillen as their manager for years, and now it's expected to happen, as Joe Cowley writes.

There are rival baseball executives and scouts who have been rooting for this to happen, because everybody loves a good circus. The Marlins will now have baseball's most volatile and outspoken manager working for the most reactive owner, Jeffrey Loria. The whole world has heard the stories about how Joe Girardi yelled at Loria during a game and how Loria had to be talked out of firing Girardi that day, about how Fredi Gonzalez was nearly fired about 6,832 times.

"There's no way those two guys can co-exist," said one GM. "I bet they don't make it out of spring training."

Here's a foolhardy prediction: Guillen and Loria will get along fine.

If you look back at Guillen's time with the White Sox, his seemingly random explosions were aimed at players, general manager Kenny Williams, umpires, reporters -- just everybody. Except one guy.

White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, Ozzie's boss. Guillen may seem a little crazy at times, but he's very smart, and the guess here is that he'll work it out with Loria, for at least a while.

A larger question is the overall impact on the Marlins' baseball operations department, which has been solely responsible for keeping the franchise competitive over the last eight years. While Loria slashed the team's budget to the point where the Marlins' entire roster was making about half as much money as Alex Rodriguez -- remember how they had a payroll of $15 million in 2006? -- GM Larry Beinfest and his staff have continually re-plowed the few resources he's been given and fielded the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Johnson and Mike Stanton. Fans in South Florida may not have found the Marlins interesting, but they have never really bottomed out the way other teams have.

But now there is a perception within some corners of the Marlins' front office that Loria is going to take a more direct role in player personnel decisions, and that Beinfest and Co. will have less influence. That could be a problem.

Keep in mind, though, that for the Marlins, there are two separate challenges: (1) building a good team, and (2) building an interesting team. And there is no question that Guillen makes the Marlins more interesting, more relevant. A really smart, experienced baseball man talked recently about what he would do if he were to take over a franchise. "I'd hire Ozzie Guillen, because he puts you on the map," the smart guy said. "When he says something, he gets everyone angry, or laughing, or whatever. Talk radio will be talking about your team, the columnists will be writing about your team. Who paid attention to the White Sox in Chicago before Ozzie took over?"

The question was rhetorical, of course.

The smart guy continued: "Besides picking up a superstar player, Ozzie Guillen might have more value to the franchise than anyone."

Reinsdorf had to choose between Guillen and Williams, whose relationship seemed like an eight-year marriage that went on three years too long. If Reinsdorf's preference was to keep Williams, then he had to get rid of Guillen.

But the Marlins are making a wise choice in hiring Ozzie, who will make their new ballpark much more interesting in 2012.

Fasten your seat belts in Miami, writes Greg Cote. The Marlins know they will need more than a stadium to draw fans, writes Joe Capozzi.

Ozzie wants to buy a boat, as Rick Morrissey writes. Guillen talked his way out of the job, writes Phil Rogers. Kenny Williams is now left to look for replacements, writes Toni Ginnetti.

A.J. Pierzynski and Paul Konerko are grateful for their time with Guillen, writes Toni Ginnetti.

Ozzie Guillen's time with the White Sox, from ESPN Stats & Info:

Wins -- 677 (3rd in team rankings)
Winning percent -- .523 (7th)
Winning seasons -- 5 (T-2nd)
Division Titles -- 2 (1st)

Jack McKeon is stepping aside, writes Craig Davis.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• If the Red Sox are going to somehow avoid historic ignominy, they will have to do the work themselves now; the Yankees will be pitching a lot of B-listers and C-listers today and tomorrow, and the Rays should have a significant advantage over the next two days. It's up to Boston to find a way, and the Red Sox couldn't do it Monday; Josh Beckett couldn't hold a lead, and James Shields did, and Boston and Tampa Bay are tied.

Look, the injuries at the back end of the Boston rotation have hurt; the Red Sox have missed Clay Buchholz, and they've missed Daisuke Matsuzaka. But the September collapse falls on the shoulders, to a high degree, on the late-season failures of Jon Lester and Beckett. They are supposed to be the aces of this team, in stature and in salary, and they have been lousy this month.

Lester and Beckett this month, combined:
Starts: 9
Red Sox record in their starts: 2-7
Outings in which Beckett/Lester pitched into the seventh inning: 3
ERA: 5.73

If the Red Sox complete their collapse in the next 72 hours and its history is written, Lester and Beckett will have to be placed near the top of the pyramid of blame.

After Boston's win late Sunday night in the second game of the doubleheader against the Yankees, the Red Sox players focused on the fact that they could still control their own destiny. Even today, they still can: If they win the next three days, they will make the playoffs. But the Rays can say the same thing, and unlike Boston, Tampa Bay's pitching is perfectly aligned and rested.

The Red Sox have choked, writes Scott Lauber. Their catching situation is a mess, because both Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are hurt.

Red Sox lead in wild card this month:
Sept. 2 -- 9
Sept. 10 -- 4.5
Sept. 18 -- 2
Monday -- 0

Monday was the Rays' first day in the wild-card lead since May 23.

If you haven't had a chance to see Desmond Jennings' incredible catch Monday night, make a point of doing so; his teammates were in awe, as Joe Smith writes.

James Shields was the Man for the Rays, as Marc Topkin writes.

From ESPN Stats & Info, how Shields won:

A) He continued his season-long success with the changeup. Yankee hitters were 0-for-10 with two strikeouts in at-bats ending with Shields' changeup. This is his seventh start this season allowing no hits against his changeup, recording 10 or more outs with the pitch in five of those starts.

B) Shields had success when he kept the ball to his throwing arm side of the plate. Yankee lefties were 1-for-12 in at-bats ending with pitches away, including 0-for-7 against the changeup, and righties were 0-for-2 in at-bats ending with pitches inside.

C) Shields induced 12 ground-ball outs Monday, the second-most in one of his starts this season. Nine of the 12 outs came against lefties, including both double plays.

The Rays' impossible dream is near, writes Martin Fennelly.

From good friend Pedro Gomez: In 10 seasons, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were 327 games under .500. In four seasons, the Tampa Bay Rays are 86 games over .500.

The Angels were eliminated.

• The Cardinals squandered a chance to tie the Braves, who lost to the Phillies.

NL No. 2 seed: The Diamondbacks lost and are behind the Brewers -- who also lost -- but their greatest concern now is the condition of Justin Upton, who may or may not have a concussion issue.

Jarrod Parker will make his major league debut on Tuesday night.

It looks like Yovani Gallardo is going to start Game 1 of the postseason for the Brewers, writes Tom Haudricourt.

AL No. 2 seed: Doug Fister was great for the Tigers, but Texas won again and leads in the race for the second-best AL record.

From ESPN Stats & Info, how Fister shut down the Indians:

A) Fister did not allow a baserunner until the fourth inning, and did not allow a runner to reach second base until the eighth inning due to an error. Fister also did not walk a batter, his third consecutive start without allowing a free pass.

B) He kept the ball off the middle of the plate. Fister threw 94 of his 109 pitches (86.2 percent) to either the inside or outside part of the plate, and had just one plate appearance end with a pitch down the middle vertically, an eighth-inning strikeout.

C) He got ahead in the count. Fister threw a first-pitch strike to 19 of the 27 hitters he faced, and went to 2-0 counts on just three hitters, retiring them all. Fister threw just one pitch in a three-ball count the entire game, inducing a fly out on a 3-2 count.

D) Fister got 15 swing-and-misses Monday, the highest tally of his career. Six of the swing and misses came on sliders, two more than he has generated with the pitch in any other start in his career. Five of the six were out of the strike zone. Overall, seven of Fister's nine strikeouts were swinging, and five of those were on pitches out of the zone, which ties a career high.

C.J. Wilson had a rough outing. Elvis Andrus is confident about playing in the postseason.

Miguel Cabrera is on the verge of winning the batting title, as John Lowe writes.

• The horse-trading that is going on in the labor talks is along these lines: The owners are asking for an expanded playoff format, to 10 teams, and the players want two 15-team leagues. The players would prefer a one-game winner-take-all playoff for the two wild-card teams, under the proposed format, while some owners want a best-of-three, in order to ensure at least one home game for a team that makes the playoffs. The players' primary concern about a three-game playoff is that the other teams would have to sit and wait for four or five days -- too long, in their estimation.

The owners' primary concern about the two 15-team leagues is whether they can market interleague play, which is currently bundled into a couple of short windows. An odd number of teams in each league requires interleague play to be played from the first day to the last in the season.

And keep in mind that a natural solution to that problem is something that nobody is close to being ready to talk about now, given all the problems with the franchises in Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland -- future expansion. Years down the road, each league could add a team and expand to two 16-team leagues, which the union would embrace, because of the added jobs. To repeat: Expansion is not being talked about by anyone now.

Negotiating over the playoff format and realignment could be done within the next couple of weeks, and the current goal remains to get the labor talks completed by the end of the World Series. It's unclear whether Major League Baseball is going to push very hard for a slotting system.

• Frank McCourt wants access to financial records of other teams, writes Bill Shaikin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti says he'll have the money to try to sign Matt Kemp and others, writes T.J. Simers.

2. The Rockies will announce decisions on the coaching staff Wednesday, writes Troy Renck.

3. Brett Pill will get a chance to be part of the 2012 Giants, writes Ron Kroichick.

4. It doesn't seem likely that Coco Crisp will be back next year.

5. Oakland is undecided about whether to sign Hideki Matsui.

6. The Cubs are likely to reconcile with Ryne Sandberg, and he might be the team's next manager, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

7. A decision on the next general manager for Baltimore is coming soon, as Dan Connolly writes. The O's are early in the process of identifying candidates.

8. Mark Buehrle wants to pitch another two or three more years.

9. Aroldis Chapman's role is undefined.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Adam Wainwright is playing catch.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Matt Kemp moved closer to a 40-40 season.

2. The Phillies picked up their 100th victory, as David Murphy writes.

3. As the Rays and Red Sox fight over the wild-card spot, the Yankees are following their own agenda. As it should be; they've earned that right, by finishing with the best record in the AL. It's time for the Yankees to get sharp for the playoffs.

By the way: There appears to be a good chance that Raul Valdes will be part of the Yankees' postseason roster, at some point. Phil Hughes is disappointed he's going to be working out of the New York bullpen, as Pete Caldera writes.

4. Vladimir Guerrero had a milestone hit, on the same night that the Orioles clipped the Red Sox.

5. Melky Cabrera racked up his 201st hit, in another Kansas City victory. His hitting coach appreciates the milestone. By the way, Mike Moustakas' month-to-month batting average: .160 in July, .283 in August and .329 in September.

6. Jhoulys Chacin threw well in his final start.

7. Ryan Vogelsong finished the year strongly.

8. Mat Latos was excellent in his last start.

9. Kevin Slowey's lost season came to a fitting end.

10. Alex Presley sparked the Pirates.

11. Mike Morse got a big hit.

12. Jose Reyes had three hits, and has a shot at the organization's first batting title.

13. Chris Heisey gave the Reds a lift.

14. Ubaldo Jimenez got pounded in his last start of the season.

15. The Astros won with a walk-off bunt.
 
Keith Laws award picks.

Spoiler [+]
I've listed my hypothetical ballots, along with some explanations of the rankings and my philosophy on each award, for the five major postseason awards for which I don't have an official vote. I do have an official ballot for the NL Cy Young Award, so I won't discuss that one until the award itself is announced in November. Those same names would appear on my NL MVP ballot if I had one, so I'll only discuss the position players for that award rather than implicitly give you my NL Cy rankings, with the qualifier that I'd have the same MVP choice even with the pitchers included.
[h3]NL MVP[/h3]
1. Matt Kemp, CF, LA Dodgers
2. Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee
3. Justin Upton, RF, Arizona
4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado
5. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati
6. Shane Victorino, CF, Philadelphia

Kemp went off in September to create some separation between himself and the handful of other top candidates for this award, and if he doesn't win it, it would be a travesty. He's nearly a full win ahead of Braun in FanGraphs' wins above replacement (8.2 to 7.3) and over two wins ahead in Baseball-Reference's version of WAR (9.7 to 7.6). He plays a tougher position than Braun, which is factored into WAR, and plays center better than Braun plays left. Kemp put up roughly the same offensive numbers as Braun despite facing much tougher pitching than Braun did; four of the bottom six NL pitching staffs (by ERA) are in the NL Central.

I've listed only six names because I'd have four pitchers on my ballot, but as I said above, Kemp would still be at the top. Victorino does deserve some mention here for how far under the radar his season has gone, between lower playing time around an injury and lack of name value compared to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley or their starting pitchers, but a line of .278 AVG/.354 OBP/.487 SLG from a center fielder who adds value with his arm, glove and legs, even in a good hitter's park, is extremely valuable. Prince Fielder misses the cut as a below-average defender at first base, which drags down the value he generates with his bat.

I imagine this, and the ballot below, will prompt the annual torrent of replies claiming that a player shouldn't win the MVP award if his team isn't in the playoffs. I have long found this line of thinking -- that production matters only if it's in the spotlight, that a player's value is somehow affected by the quality of his teammates, or that there's more "pressure" to playing on a good team than a bad one -- to be juvenile. This is what kids think about the game, because it's what they hear in the newspapers; I certainly thought this way when I was younger, because it was the only line of thinking to which I'd been exposed. The idea that your production as a baseball player matters only if your team succeeds is as dated as the idea that the guy with the most RBIs should win this award. Value is value, no matter who hits ahead of you in the order.


[h3]NL ROY[/h3]
1. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Atlanta
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta
3. Wilson Ramos, C, Washington

I hate the idea of giving the Rookie of the Year award to a reliever because it is so likely to end up looking like a bad selection a few years down the line. Relievers have peaks that tend to be short and their year-to-year performance is volatile, so in the ideal scenario this award would go to someone likely to emerge as a star down the road. But the NL rookie class this year just didn't produce a strong enough contender to top Kimbrel, who ends up a default choice here.

Freeman, Ramos and Danny Espinosa had their chances, and Freeman at least has some potential to be an above-average regular for a long time; I'd rather see him win the award, speaking as a fan of the game, but I can't vote (or pretend-vote) as a fan. We have an overflow of candidates in the AL, but a shortage here in the NL.


[h3]AL MVP[/h3]
1. Jose Bautista, 3B/RF, Toronto
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston
3. Curtis Granderson, CF, NY Yankees
4. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit
5. CC Sabathia, LHP, NY Yankees
6. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston
7. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas
8. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit
9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston
10. Alex Avila, C, Detroit

You could call the first two 1 and 1A, and if either wins, it's perfectly defensible. If you believe Ellsbury has become one of the elite defensive center fielders in the game -- a reasonable assertion -- then he's your guy. If not, and you believe Bautista should get some credit back on defense for a midyear position switch, as I do, then Bautista and his league-best offensive line would be the call. The Ellsbury narrative has been hilarious to watch, from a game-winning three-run homer (off a 4A pitcher) on Sunday to a game-losing fumble in center field on Monday. I just don't see Toronto's status as a noncontender, or as a Canadian city, any reason not to acknowledge Bautista's amazing season.

As for Verlander, I have never had any objection to a pitcher winning an MVP award. They are absolutely eligible for it under the rules. And it is possible for a pitcher to be the Most Valuable Player in the league -- Pedro Martinez was at least once, for example. But in this case, Verlander isn't the right choice at the top. He's more than a win behind Ellsbury and Bautista in FanGraphs' WAR, which adjusts for Verlander's low BABIP this year -- I'll get into that in the next section -- and doesn't even take into account the soft competition in the Comedy Central division. (Baseball-Reference has Verlander even with Bautista in WAR but doesn't make either of those adjustments.)


[h3]AL Cy Young Award[/h3]
1. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit
2. CC Sabathia, LHP, NY Yankees
3. Dan Haren, RHP, LA Angels
4. C.J. Wilson, LHP, Texas
5. David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay

My prediction here is that Verlander wins this with at least 28 of the 30 votes, although after the homer-voter episode in 2007, when two Detroit writers gave Magglio Ordonez first-place votes while Alex Rodriguez swept the rest of the league, it would be amusing to see New York writers turn the table. Verlander and Sabathia are at a dead heat in FanGraphs' WAR, which adjusts for help from defense and bullpens and for the very different ballparks in which these two pitchers pitch half their games, but doesn't credit Sabathia for facing tougher competition over the course of the season. As with the AL MVP, we have two more or less equally valid choices, but unlike the AL MVP, one guy is going to win this award by a huge margin. I put Price over Jered Weaver due to level of competition, and because Weaver, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, gets an unusual amount of help from his home park and two other huge parks in the AL West -- he threw 141 innings this year in those three parks (at home, in Oakland and in Seattle) and the standard park adjustment probably doesn't adequately address how much this benefits him.


[h3]AL ROY[/h3]
1. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle
2. Michael Pineda, RHP, Seattle
3. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City

Jeremy Hellickson is probably the main name omitted here, and he could end up winning this award. But so much of his success this year is based on help from Tampa Bay's outstanding defense; no matter what you believe about a pitcher's ability to control the results of balls in play, Hellickson's .222 BABIP is so far from the normal range for starters that at least a large chunk of the credit has to go to his teammates (or perhaps just to good fortune). With awards voting, I don't believe in assuming the pitcher should keep all the credit when everything we know about the relationship between pitching and defense says that at least a good portion of it should be directed elsewhere. This AL rookie crop was stacked -- Brett Lawrie and Desmond Jennings would almost certainly have appeared iif they had spent more time in the majors, and Ivan Nova will probably garner a few old-school votes based on his pitcher-win total. Hosmer's bat has been very good, but even if you zero out his defense, he still doesn' pass Ackley.

Ozzie brings his show to Florida.

Spoiler [+]
The Marlins have wanted Ozzie Guillen as their manager for years, and now it's expected to happen, as Joe Cowley writes.

There are rival baseball executives and scouts who have been rooting for this to happen, because everybody loves a good circus. The Marlins will now have baseball's most volatile and outspoken manager working for the most reactive owner, Jeffrey Loria. The whole world has heard the stories about how Joe Girardi yelled at Loria during a game and how Loria had to be talked out of firing Girardi that day, about how Fredi Gonzalez was nearly fired about 6,832 times.

"There's no way those two guys can co-exist," said one GM. "I bet they don't make it out of spring training."

Here's a foolhardy prediction: Guillen and Loria will get along fine.

If you look back at Guillen's time with the White Sox, his seemingly random explosions were aimed at players, general manager Kenny Williams, umpires, reporters -- just everybody. Except one guy.

White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, Ozzie's boss. Guillen may seem a little crazy at times, but he's very smart, and the guess here is that he'll work it out with Loria, for at least a while.

A larger question is the overall impact on the Marlins' baseball operations department, which has been solely responsible for keeping the franchise competitive over the last eight years. While Loria slashed the team's budget to the point where the Marlins' entire roster was making about half as much money as Alex Rodriguez -- remember how they had a payroll of $15 million in 2006? -- GM Larry Beinfest and his staff have continually re-plowed the few resources he's been given and fielded the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Johnson and Mike Stanton. Fans in South Florida may not have found the Marlins interesting, but they have never really bottomed out the way other teams have.

But now there is a perception within some corners of the Marlins' front office that Loria is going to take a more direct role in player personnel decisions, and that Beinfest and Co. will have less influence. That could be a problem.

Keep in mind, though, that for the Marlins, there are two separate challenges: (1) building a good team, and (2) building an interesting team. And there is no question that Guillen makes the Marlins more interesting, more relevant. A really smart, experienced baseball man talked recently about what he would do if he were to take over a franchise. "I'd hire Ozzie Guillen, because he puts you on the map," the smart guy said. "When he says something, he gets everyone angry, or laughing, or whatever. Talk radio will be talking about your team, the columnists will be writing about your team. Who paid attention to the White Sox in Chicago before Ozzie took over?"

The question was rhetorical, of course.

The smart guy continued: "Besides picking up a superstar player, Ozzie Guillen might have more value to the franchise than anyone."

Reinsdorf had to choose between Guillen and Williams, whose relationship seemed like an eight-year marriage that went on three years too long. If Reinsdorf's preference was to keep Williams, then he had to get rid of Guillen.

But the Marlins are making a wise choice in hiring Ozzie, who will make their new ballpark much more interesting in 2012.

Fasten your seat belts in Miami, writes Greg Cote. The Marlins know they will need more than a stadium to draw fans, writes Joe Capozzi.

Ozzie wants to buy a boat, as Rick Morrissey writes. Guillen talked his way out of the job, writes Phil Rogers. Kenny Williams is now left to look for replacements, writes Toni Ginnetti.

A.J. Pierzynski and Paul Konerko are grateful for their time with Guillen, writes Toni Ginnetti.

Ozzie Guillen's time with the White Sox, from ESPN Stats & Info:

Wins -- 677 (3rd in team rankings)
Winning percent -- .523 (7th)
Winning seasons -- 5 (T-2nd)
Division Titles -- 2 (1st)

Jack McKeon is stepping aside, writes Craig Davis.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• If the Red Sox are going to somehow avoid historic ignominy, they will have to do the work themselves now; the Yankees will be pitching a lot of B-listers and C-listers today and tomorrow, and the Rays should have a significant advantage over the next two days. It's up to Boston to find a way, and the Red Sox couldn't do it Monday; Josh Beckett couldn't hold a lead, and James Shields did, and Boston and Tampa Bay are tied.

Look, the injuries at the back end of the Boston rotation have hurt; the Red Sox have missed Clay Buchholz, and they've missed Daisuke Matsuzaka. But the September collapse falls on the shoulders, to a high degree, on the late-season failures of Jon Lester and Beckett. They are supposed to be the aces of this team, in stature and in salary, and they have been lousy this month.

Lester and Beckett this month, combined:
Starts: 9
Red Sox record in their starts: 2-7
Outings in which Beckett/Lester pitched into the seventh inning: 3
ERA: 5.73

If the Red Sox complete their collapse in the next 72 hours and its history is written, Lester and Beckett will have to be placed near the top of the pyramid of blame.

After Boston's win late Sunday night in the second game of the doubleheader against the Yankees, the Red Sox players focused on the fact that they could still control their own destiny. Even today, they still can: If they win the next three days, they will make the playoffs. But the Rays can say the same thing, and unlike Boston, Tampa Bay's pitching is perfectly aligned and rested.

The Red Sox have choked, writes Scott Lauber. Their catching situation is a mess, because both Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are hurt.

Red Sox lead in wild card this month:
Sept. 2 -- 9
Sept. 10 -- 4.5
Sept. 18 -- 2
Monday -- 0

Monday was the Rays' first day in the wild-card lead since May 23.

If you haven't had a chance to see Desmond Jennings' incredible catch Monday night, make a point of doing so; his teammates were in awe, as Joe Smith writes.

James Shields was the Man for the Rays, as Marc Topkin writes.

From ESPN Stats & Info, how Shields won:

A) He continued his season-long success with the changeup. Yankee hitters were 0-for-10 with two strikeouts in at-bats ending with Shields' changeup. This is his seventh start this season allowing no hits against his changeup, recording 10 or more outs with the pitch in five of those starts.

B) Shields had success when he kept the ball to his throwing arm side of the plate. Yankee lefties were 1-for-12 in at-bats ending with pitches away, including 0-for-7 against the changeup, and righties were 0-for-2 in at-bats ending with pitches inside.

C) Shields induced 12 ground-ball outs Monday, the second-most in one of his starts this season. Nine of the 12 outs came against lefties, including both double plays.

The Rays' impossible dream is near, writes Martin Fennelly.

From good friend Pedro Gomez: In 10 seasons, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were 327 games under .500. In four seasons, the Tampa Bay Rays are 86 games over .500.

The Angels were eliminated.

• The Cardinals squandered a chance to tie the Braves, who lost to the Phillies.

NL No. 2 seed: The Diamondbacks lost and are behind the Brewers -- who also lost -- but their greatest concern now is the condition of Justin Upton, who may or may not have a concussion issue.

Jarrod Parker will make his major league debut on Tuesday night.

It looks like Yovani Gallardo is going to start Game 1 of the postseason for the Brewers, writes Tom Haudricourt.

AL No. 2 seed: Doug Fister was great for the Tigers, but Texas won again and leads in the race for the second-best AL record.

From ESPN Stats & Info, how Fister shut down the Indians:

A) Fister did not allow a baserunner until the fourth inning, and did not allow a runner to reach second base until the eighth inning due to an error. Fister also did not walk a batter, his third consecutive start without allowing a free pass.

B) He kept the ball off the middle of the plate. Fister threw 94 of his 109 pitches (86.2 percent) to either the inside or outside part of the plate, and had just one plate appearance end with a pitch down the middle vertically, an eighth-inning strikeout.

C) He got ahead in the count. Fister threw a first-pitch strike to 19 of the 27 hitters he faced, and went to 2-0 counts on just three hitters, retiring them all. Fister threw just one pitch in a three-ball count the entire game, inducing a fly out on a 3-2 count.

D) Fister got 15 swing-and-misses Monday, the highest tally of his career. Six of the swing and misses came on sliders, two more than he has generated with the pitch in any other start in his career. Five of the six were out of the strike zone. Overall, seven of Fister's nine strikeouts were swinging, and five of those were on pitches out of the zone, which ties a career high.

C.J. Wilson had a rough outing. Elvis Andrus is confident about playing in the postseason.

Miguel Cabrera is on the verge of winning the batting title, as John Lowe writes.

• The horse-trading that is going on in the labor talks is along these lines: The owners are asking for an expanded playoff format, to 10 teams, and the players want two 15-team leagues. The players would prefer a one-game winner-take-all playoff for the two wild-card teams, under the proposed format, while some owners want a best-of-three, in order to ensure at least one home game for a team that makes the playoffs. The players' primary concern about a three-game playoff is that the other teams would have to sit and wait for four or five days -- too long, in their estimation.

The owners' primary concern about the two 15-team leagues is whether they can market interleague play, which is currently bundled into a couple of short windows. An odd number of teams in each league requires interleague play to be played from the first day to the last in the season.

And keep in mind that a natural solution to that problem is something that nobody is close to being ready to talk about now, given all the problems with the franchises in Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland -- future expansion. Years down the road, each league could add a team and expand to two 16-team leagues, which the union would embrace, because of the added jobs. To repeat: Expansion is not being talked about by anyone now.

Negotiating over the playoff format and realignment could be done within the next couple of weeks, and the current goal remains to get the labor talks completed by the end of the World Series. It's unclear whether Major League Baseball is going to push very hard for a slotting system.

• Frank McCourt wants access to financial records of other teams, writes Bill Shaikin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti says he'll have the money to try to sign Matt Kemp and others, writes T.J. Simers.

2. The Rockies will announce decisions on the coaching staff Wednesday, writes Troy Renck.

3. Brett Pill will get a chance to be part of the 2012 Giants, writes Ron Kroichick.

4. It doesn't seem likely that Coco Crisp will be back next year.

5. Oakland is undecided about whether to sign Hideki Matsui.

6. The Cubs are likely to reconcile with Ryne Sandberg, and he might be the team's next manager, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

7. A decision on the next general manager for Baltimore is coming soon, as Dan Connolly writes. The O's are early in the process of identifying candidates.

8. Mark Buehrle wants to pitch another two or three more years.

9. Aroldis Chapman's role is undefined.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Adam Wainwright is playing catch.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Matt Kemp moved closer to a 40-40 season.

2. The Phillies picked up their 100th victory, as David Murphy writes.

3. As the Rays and Red Sox fight over the wild-card spot, the Yankees are following their own agenda. As it should be; they've earned that right, by finishing with the best record in the AL. It's time for the Yankees to get sharp for the playoffs.

By the way: There appears to be a good chance that Raul Valdes will be part of the Yankees' postseason roster, at some point. Phil Hughes is disappointed he's going to be working out of the New York bullpen, as Pete Caldera writes.

4. Vladimir Guerrero had a milestone hit, on the same night that the Orioles clipped the Red Sox.

5. Melky Cabrera racked up his 201st hit, in another Kansas City victory. His hitting coach appreciates the milestone. By the way, Mike Moustakas' month-to-month batting average: .160 in July, .283 in August and .329 in September.

6. Jhoulys Chacin threw well in his final start.

7. Ryan Vogelsong finished the year strongly.

8. Mat Latos was excellent in his last start.

9. Kevin Slowey's lost season came to a fitting end.

10. Alex Presley sparked the Pirates.

11. Mike Morse got a big hit.

12. Jose Reyes had three hits, and has a shot at the organization's first batting title.

13. Chris Heisey gave the Reds a lift.

14. Ubaldo Jimenez got pounded in his last start of the season.

15. The Astros won with a walk-off bunt.
 
it's a shame the phials offense couldn't pick up Doc and Lee and get them to 20 wins
30t6p3b.gif


NL Cy Young is going to pretty tough to pick.

Kershaw or Doc.

both had amazing seasons. 

you can even throw cliff lee in the mix with 6 complete games and 6 shutouts. he's been lights out this season

i think Kershaw will probably get it. he deserves it.
 
it's a shame the phials offense couldn't pick up Doc and Lee and get them to 20 wins
30t6p3b.gif


NL Cy Young is going to pretty tough to pick.

Kershaw or Doc.

both had amazing seasons. 

you can even throw cliff lee in the mix with 6 complete games and 6 shutouts. he's been lights out this season

i think Kershaw will probably get it. he deserves it.
 
Prince to Toronto would be just as intriguing as surprising. Yanks/Rays/Boston would have a tough time dealing with a Joey Bats-Prince combo. Most of the country doesn't realize the talent on the Jays' roster, including their starting pitching.

Pro, to answer your question about Verlander I think this is clearly the best season of his career. Not just because of wins or the sparkling record either, if you look outside the numbers and statistics I recognize first that Verlander truly propelled Detroit above the division making the Tigers a legitimate ALCS contender. He deserves credit this year for clutch starts particularly for winning after Tigers losses. Verlander has pitched well within the division, unfortunately experiencing much success against my beloved Cleveland Indians. Furthermore, if you watch him every start he's grasped the concept that managing counts/pitches is smarter than throwing hard fastballs all the time. In the past Verlander was guilty of relying on pure heat to beat hitters, now he's adapted to the point where he can take some speed off and hit better locations that are tougher for batters. Long-term that's also beneficial for his arm and overall health/longevity as a pitcher in the major leagues. I'm hoping Ubaldo will get that concept soon with the recent dip in his velocity. Sooner Stras learns that also the better. Let's include Chapman while we're at it.

Above, may I ask how you could leave Upton off your short list of NL MVP candidates?
 
Prince to Toronto would be just as intriguing as surprising. Yanks/Rays/Boston would have a tough time dealing with a Joey Bats-Prince combo. Most of the country doesn't realize the talent on the Jays' roster, including their starting pitching.

Pro, to answer your question about Verlander I think this is clearly the best season of his career. Not just because of wins or the sparkling record either, if you look outside the numbers and statistics I recognize first that Verlander truly propelled Detroit above the division making the Tigers a legitimate ALCS contender. He deserves credit this year for clutch starts particularly for winning after Tigers losses. Verlander has pitched well within the division, unfortunately experiencing much success against my beloved Cleveland Indians. Furthermore, if you watch him every start he's grasped the concept that managing counts/pitches is smarter than throwing hard fastballs all the time. In the past Verlander was guilty of relying on pure heat to beat hitters, now he's adapted to the point where he can take some speed off and hit better locations that are tougher for batters. Long-term that's also beneficial for his arm and overall health/longevity as a pitcher in the major leagues. I'm hoping Ubaldo will get that concept soon with the recent dip in his velocity. Sooner Stras learns that also the better. Let's include Chapman while we're at it.

Above, may I ask how you could leave Upton off your short list of NL MVP candidates?
 
Coin flip for me, though I suppose I value top flight starting pitching more than most. Halladay has quietly been absolutely dominant (better than Verlander IMO), but I wouldn't have any problems with Justin being third.
 
Coin flip for me, though I suppose I value top flight starting pitching more than most. Halladay has quietly been absolutely dominant (better than Verlander IMO), but I wouldn't have any problems with Justin being third.
 
Which current players are notorious anti-pull hitters? Mostly slap-hitting speedsters, right?

Lou Marson is right-handed. He has 55 hits on the season, and five of them are to left field. Two of those five are infield singles, and he only has one extra-base hit that way (a double). It blows my mind. Just curious if he is the most extreme case right now.
 
Which current players are notorious anti-pull hitters? Mostly slap-hitting speedsters, right?

Lou Marson is right-handed. He has 55 hits on the season, and five of them are to left field. Two of those five are infield singles, and he only has one extra-base hit that way (a double). It blows my mind. Just curious if he is the most extreme case right now.
 
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