Welcome to ESPN Insider's 2015 ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.
This is my eighth such ranking for Insider, with a lot of the same names near the top of last year's list but in a different order based on what we learned from those players' 2014 seasons. Just 10 players from last year's top 50 lost their eligibility for this year's list due to exceeding the limits for rookie of the year eligibility. The list is heavy on position players up the middle, including shortstops near the top of the list and many potential everyday catchers further down, as with the previous year's ranking. A number of the top arms from last year's list were hit by the injury bug, including a few Tommy John surgeries and a number of other arm problems that kept them off the mound, some for almost the entire season.
The Guidelines
Law's prospect rankings
Top 100 prospects
Nos. 1-50 Insider | Nos. 51-100 Insider
Full index Insider | Breakdown of top 3 Video
Farm system rankings
Cubs No. 1 Insider | Twins are close Video
• The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1. That means Milwaukee Brewers infielder Luis Sardinas, for instance, is ineligible, based on his days on the 25-man roster.
• Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.
• I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea "prospects" for the purpose of this exercise, which means no Jung-Ho Kang this year (among others). I also exclude Cuban players who are considered professional free agents by Major League Baseball by virtue of their experience in Cuba's Serie Nacional de Béisbol. This list includes Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas, but will consider Cuban players whom MLB treats as amateurs, like Roberto Baldoquin (who just missed this list) and Yoan Lopez.
• When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplemented with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.
• I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power. David Ortiz has 20 speed. Carlos Gomez is an 80 defender. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.
• I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 in 2014. An "ineligible" player was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an "unranked" player was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers list or list of 10 players who just missed the cut.
Top 100 index Insider | Nos. 1-50 Insider | Nos. 51-100 Insider
1Kris Bryant, 3B
AGE: 23DOB: 1/4/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 215
AVG: .325OBP: .438OPS: 1.098HR: 43SB: 15
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Everyone is aware of Bryant by now, after his pro baseball-leading 43 home runs and a .325/.438/.661 line across two levels in his first full year in the minors. Bryant is the best prospect in baseball for 2015, a true middle-of-the-order bat who should be in the Cubs' Opening Day lineup for the next six-plus seasons.
Bryant was drafted late out of high school despite showing first-round abilities, matured quickly once he began playing at the University of San Diego and landed as the No. 2 pick in the 2013 draft. After he tore through the low levels of the minors that summer, the Cubs pushed him to Double-A to start the 2014 season and he proceeded to demolish the level in half a season before a promotion to Triple-A that saw him nearly repeat the performance against older competition.
Bryant's swing is very balanced, with a wide setup and good use of his lower half to generate power. While there were concerns when he was an amateur that his bat speed might not catch up to major league velocity, he really has had no problem with better stuff in the pros, probably because his eye is so good and his swing is very short from load to contact. He's a good enough athlete to be able to handle third base, although he'd probably be better defensively in right field with his plus arm and fewer quick-reaction plays to challenge him. Wherever he ends up, he has 30-homer, .400 OBP potential, and should challenge for MVP awards once he has a few years in the majors.
Top level: Triple-A (Iowa) | 2014 rank: 15
2Byron Buxton, CF
AGE: 21DOB: 12/18/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 190
AVG: .234OBP: .307OPS: .702HR: 4SB: 6
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Very little went right in 2014 for Lord Byron, who suffered everything but leeching during a season that saw him healthy enough for just 181 total at-bats, including his stint in the Arizona Fall League that also ended due to an injury. Buxton remained in great physical shape throughout his ordeals, and in October he still showed most of the same tools that made him baseball's best prospect going into 2014, though the rust in his bat was evident and he has lost a lot of important development time.
At full strength and health, Buxton is an 80 runner with an 80 arm and is capable of playing at least grade-70 defense in center field. His bat is quick and his hands are strong enough to drive the ball out to the gaps. He's more balanced than he was as an amateur, using his back leg more to generate power, which should end up above-average by the time he reaches his peak in his mid- to late 20s. His pitch recognition turned out to be better than expected -- given his background in rural Georgia, with few showcase appearances -- but lack of reps in 2014 meant he couldn't continue to improve in that regard, and he struggled to pick up sliders in fall league. His star ceiling hasn't changed, but the missing 400 or so at-bats around the wrist injury, the dislocated finger and the concussion have pushed his timetable back as much as a full year.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2014 rank: 1
3Carlos Correa, SS
AGE: 20DOB: 9/22/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 205
AVG: .325OBP: .416OPS: .926HR: 6SB: 20
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Only a horrific leg injury could have stopped Correa in 2014, as he had the seventh-best OBP and 22nd-best slugging percentage in the high-A California League despite being the circuit's youngest regular. A few days after the Carolina-California Leagues' All-Star Game, Correa slid into third base poorly and fractured his fibula, an injury severe enough that he couldn't return even to play in the Arizona Fall League or in winter ball.
Correa's bat continues to impress as his approach is advanced beyond his years, but it's his defense that earns him even higher praise, as he looks more and more like he'll at least be able to start his major league career at shortstop, a position I expected him to quickly outgrow. He played all of 2014 at age 19, and may still bulk up to the point that a move to third base makes more sense; right now, he could play an average shortstop in the majors, while his arm and bat will both profile well at third base. He might be Adrian Beltre in the end, but I wouldn't give up on him doing a little Troy Tulowitzki before he moves.
Top level: High Class A (Lancaster) | 2014 rank: 4
4Addison Russell, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 1/23/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 195
AVG: .295OBP: .350OPS: .858HR: 13SB: 6
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His performance left behind in much of the publicity around more famous Cubs prospects, Russell continued to rake in 2014 once he recovered from an early-season hamstring tear, and he kept right on producing after he was the big piece going to Chicago in the Jeff Samardzija trade.
Russell is a true shortstop with one of the best pure hit tools in the minors, both of which are a function of his outstanding hands, which are strong enough to produce hard contact yet smooth enough that he makes difficult plays look easy at short, whether it's a tough ground ball or a quick transfer on a 4-6-3 double-play turn. His swing did get a little longer in 2014, producing more power but also more ground ball contact, as he would get on top of balls he didn't square up. Russell always will face questions about his position because he's not a runner, but his footwork is more than adequate, and he has the hands and arm to be above-average there. Shortstops with the potential to hit .300-plus with double-digit homers are rare commodities -- Troy Tulowitzki was the only major leaguer to do it in 2014 -- which makes Russell's skill set extremely valuable.
Top level: Triple-A (Sacramento) | 2014 rank: 3
5Corey Seager, SS/3B
AGE: 20DOB: 4/27/1994B/T: L/RHT: 6-4WT: 215
AVG: .349OBP: .402OPS: 1.004HR: 20SB: 6
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Unless he experiences a miraculous change in body type, Seager isn't going to be a shortstop in the majors. Cal Ripken Jr. has been the only one Seager's height to stay at the position, and Seager, who turns 21 in April, already has about 20 pounds on Ripken. Seager still has MVP-type upside at third base, where I expect him to be an above-average or better defender, just as his brother Kyle has become, but with a much stronger hit tool.
Seager's swing isn't textbook, but it's very quiet, especially in light of the thunder it produces, producing strong contact rates as well as plus power. He loads his hands a little low and deep, but he gets to everything -- velocity, spin, inside and outside pitches -- and has the ability to drive the ball the other way with what seems like a flick of his wrists. He has been young at every level he has played in pro ball, even skipping the complex league in 2012 to go right to Ogden, and has been able to make significant adjustments, including killing the tendency to let his front side go soft that led to a brief struggle at the end of 2013. Kyle Seager has turned into one of the top 20 players in the majors, but even as good as he is, brother Corey has the potential to be much better.
Top level: Double-A (Chattanooga) | 2014 rank: 18
6Francisco Lindor, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 11/14/93B/T: B/RHT: 5-11WT: 175
AVG: .276OBP: .338OPS: .727HR: 11SB: 28
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True shortstops abound in the minor leagues right now, and while they won't all hit in the majors or stay at the position, Lindor looks like the strongest bet to do both of those things, not just now but for the bulk of his major league career. Lindor can hit, run, work the count, field and throw, pretty much everything but hit for power, and he makes all of those things look very, very easy.
Lindor is a legitimate switch-hitter whose swings from both sides of the plate are quite similar, a little longer from the right side but still functional, and 2014 was his best year yet against left-handed pitching. His swing is short, geared toward contact -- he was well above the median in strikeout rate in the minors this year, even compared to players of all ages -- but hard enough that he'll line plenty of balls to the gaps for extra bases. His plate discipline has always been outstanding, and he has managed to post strong contact rates despite being young for his levels; he struggled a little after a late-season promotion to Triple-A in 2014, but was one of the 10 youngest players in the league last year. He's an above-average to plus runner, although that hasn't led to big stolen-base totals in the minors; I think he could steal 30-40 if given the opportunity.
Cleveland doesn't have a true shortstop on their major league roster right now, with prospect Jose Ramirez their best option, though he's better cast as a second baseman or super-utility player. He's just keeping a spot warm for Lindor, who projects to be their leadoff man for years to come, posting .400 OBPs with stellar defense and great makeup.
Top level: Triple-A (Columbus) | 2014 rank: 6
7J.P. Crawford, SS
AGE: 20DOB: 1/11/1995B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
AVG: .285OBP: .375OPS: .781HR: 11SB: 24
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In a dismal 2014 for Phillies fans, the rapid emergence of Crawford as the team's shortstop of the future was one of the only bright spots, and allowed the Phils to trade Jimmy Rollins for two pitching prospects after the season. The 16th pick in the 2013 draft showed he was far more advanced as a hitter than even I expected -- I ranked him 46th last January -- while playing plus defense at shortstop and impressing scouts with how complete his game was at age 19.
Crawford's defense wasn't a real question coming out of high school, as he had quick feet (and is a plus runner) with a strong arm and good actions both on the dirt and around the bag. He'll need more work on plays going into the hole, but I see zero reason he can't become adept at that play in time. At the plate, his hands can load a little deep, but he accelerates them so quickly that he can cover almost anything except perhaps hard stuff inside. His aptitude and ability to make adjustments has also been above anything the Phillies could have hoped for. Their main goal for him this offseason was to help him continue to fill out his frame, which might sneak him up to fringy power, 10-12 homers a year, and should help him be durable enough to take the position 150 times a year. Rollins' departure was a tough emotional blow for many longtime Phillies' fans, but it'll be a lot easier once Crawford arrives and brings a similar mix of skills to Citizens Bank Park.
Top level: High Class A (Clearwater) | 2014 rank: 46
8Lucas Giolito, RHP
AGE: 20DOB: 7/14/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-6WT: 255
W-L: 10-2ERA: 2.20IP: 98SO: 110BB: 28
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One year after his return from Tommy John surgery, Giolito was on the mound at the Futures Game in Minneapolis, giving up a homer on a hanging curveball but otherwise looking outstanding for someone only about 23 months off the operation. His 2014 season was remarkable on its own, but even more so given the context of his injury and missed time, and when you consider that he hasn't even been allowed to use his two-seam fastball and is still developing his changeup, you can see why there seems to be no limit on how good he can ultimately be.
Giolito looks the part of a future ace, a 6-foot-6, 255-pound workhorse who'll sit 94-96 mph and can go get 98, getting good leverage from his height and working on sitting in the lower third of the zone with the pitch. He gets great angle and depth on the plus curveball, 79-83 and unhittable unless he hangs it (which he did in the Futures Game). His changeup is in the low 80s and he's continuing to throw it more, all but shelving his curveball in his last few starts of 2014 because he wanted to develop the change. When he reaches Double-A, he'll be able to restore his two-seamer and become a true four-pitch guy. Giolito looks like a 220-inning, sub-3 ERA guy in the making, and he should be ready to see the majors at some point in late 2016, which gives the Nationals a lot to consider when looking at the impending free agents in their currently loaded big-league rotation.
Top level: Class A (Hagerstown) | 2014 rank: 21
9Julio Urias, LHP
AGE: 18DOB: 8/12/96B/T: L/LHT: 5-11WT: 160
W-L: 2-2ERA: 2.36IP: 87.2SO: 109BB: 37
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No pitcher in recent minor league history has done what Julio Urias just did in an abbreviated season in the high-A California League. In 1983, an 18-year-old right-hander dominated the high-A Carolina League, racking up an unthinkable 300 strikeouts (and 112 walks) in 191 innings for Lynchburg, a campaign that launched him to the big leagues the following year, where that right-hander, Dwight Gooden, won the Rookie of the Year award and became an instant celebrity. Urias didn't pitch as much, but pitched at least as well, and did it despite being nine months younger than Gooden was when pitching at the same level of organized baseball.
Urias has a shot at a legitimate four-pitch mix, a fastball from 92-95 with little effort, a future-plus curveball at 78-80 and an average changeup at 81-84 with some fading action to it. I've also seen him throw a hard slider at 84-86 that he'd use to lefties and backdoor to righties. He stays on line well with a clean delivery that is highly rotational, and he manages to hide the ball well in the early part of his delivery. Urias is still only about 5-foot-10, so there isn't a lot of plane or sink on his fastball, and his command is still below-average, although the delivery is clean enough that that should improve rapidly with experience. He's so young for a full-season pitcher that the Dodgers have tied themselves into knots trying to manage his workload, limiting him to no more than 22 batters in any start and letting him start the sixth inning just once all year.
The story here is less about his age than about his present skill set, which isn't that far away from being ready. By the time he has been built up enough to handle a starter's workload, he'll be working with three or four above-average pitches and ready to make an immediate impact on a major-league rotation.
Top level: High Class A (Rancho Cucamonga) | 2014 rank: 14
10Blake Swihart, C
AGE: 22DOB: 4/3/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-1WT: 175
AVG: .293OBP: .341OPS: .810HR: 13SB: 8
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In an era when no one seems to have any catching, the Red Sox are fortunate enough to have two young backstops close to major league-ready in defensive specialist Christian Vazquez, now their primary catcher for 2015, and top prospect Swihart, a supreme athlete who is nearly as good a defender as Vazquez but with All-Star upside with the bat.
Swihart is a switch-hitter who was a part-time catcher in high school but has taken to the position incredibly well in pro ball, improving rapidly in every aspect of the game, to the point where he's now a plus or better receiver with a 65 to 70 arm (nailing 46 percent of would-be base stealers in 2014). He's built like a middle infielder or center fielder, with a lithe, athletic body, and runs better than most backstops do. At the plate, his hand-eye coordination is outstanding and has helped carry him as his pitch recognition and power have developed over the past three seasons. His right-handed swing is better and still produces more power, but he's improving from the left side and has the loft to hit 10-15 homers against right-handers.
The Red Sox have long raved about Swihart's work ethic and aptitude, both critical in developing a true two-way catcher given the mental and physical demands of the job.
Top level: Triple-A (Pawtucket) | 2014 rank: 56
11Joey Gallo, 3B
AGE: 21DOB: 11/19/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-5WT: 205
AVG: .271OBP: .394OPS: 1.009HR: 42SB: 7
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Smashing car windows at the Futures Game was just another day at the office for Gallo, whose 80 raw power and proclivity to swing and miss make him the game's preeminent sonic-boom-or-bust candidate: If he hits a little, he'll be a star. Finishing second in minor league baseball this year with 42 homers (one behind Kris Bryant), Gallo has more pure raw power, but he isn't as advanced as a hitter, and still struggled with contact after a midseason promotion to Double-A. He did make a significant adjustment from 2013 to 2014, tightening up his command of the strike zone. He'll always swing and miss, but he was doing so at pitches (notably fastballs) within the zone less frequently in high-A to start the 2014 season.
Gallo is improving at third base but is just so big that he may end up having to move to first, which would be a shame given a grade-80 arm that had him sitting in the low to mid-90s as a pitcher in high school. No one in the minors swings as hard or generates as much force on contact as Gallo does, and if he can just hit .230-.240 in the majors he'll hit 40-45 homers, if not more, with enough patience thrown in to be a 5-WAR player on his bat alone.
Top level: Double-A (Frisco) | 2014 rank: Unranked
12Carlos Rodon, LHP
AGE: 22DOB: 12/10/92B/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 234
W-L: 0-0ERA: 2.96IP: 24.1SO: 38BB: 13
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Rodon was the top college prospect in the 2014 draft class, and could have gone first overall had he had a stronger junior year, perhaps one on par with the outing he put up against Cuba while pitching for the U.S. Collegiate National Team in the summer of 2013, when he was up to 96 mph with the best amateur slider scouts had seen in 15 or 20 years. That pitch wasn't around last spring, but he can still miss a lot of bats even when it's not a grade-80 offering, throwing sliders from 87 to 92 even when his fastball is mostly 90-94, so hitters have very little time to figure out which pitch it is before they discover they've already swung through it.
Rodon's fastball command is below-average and his delivery doesn't have the same power to it, especially in its finish, as it did in his first two years at NC State, where he was worked very hard and became a casualty of his own success. There's still some head violence in his finish, which will likely always be part of his delivery and limits the ceiling for his command. On the other hand, the White Sox have an exceptional track record of working with pitchers with different or unorthodox deliveries and improving their performance while keeping them healthy, making their system the perfect fit for Rodon's skill set and mechanics. He has the wipeout pitch to work at the top of someone's rotation, striking out 200-plus batters a year, and his upside is limited mostly by how often he can locate his fastball where he wants.
Top level: Triple-A (Charlotte) | 2014 rank: Ineligible
13Tyler Glasnow, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 8/23/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-7WT: 195
W-L: 12-5ERA: 1.74IP: 124.1SO: 157BB: 57
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Every team hopes one of the many projectable high school pitchers they take after the first two rounds of the draft blossoms into a hard thrower in pro ball; Glasnow, a fifth-rounder in 2011, has done more than that, going from the upper 80s in high school to throwing bowling balls at 93-98 mph, finishing ninth in the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2014 at just 20 years of age. He has passed several other talented arms in the Pirates' system to become their top prospect.
Glasnow comes from a three-quarters arm slot and gets some plane on the fastball from his 6-foot-7 frame, although he's more a power/neutral pitcher than a ground ball specialist. His curveball at 79-81 mph is plus, with tight rotation and good depth to it, major league-ready in terms of shape and velocity. His changeup is still below-average and looks more like a weak fastball, often as hard as 91 mph, insufficient separation for it to be a real change of pace for him to keep hitters off the fastball, although left-handed hitters haven't sniffed him through two full seasons in the minors anyway. His command has gradually improved as the Pirates have worked with him to sync up his delivery, a real challenge for a pitcher with long levers like Glasnow has. There's still work to do, between the third pitch (which he might not need) and the fastball command, but that curveball and the big fastball point to a potential MLB strikeout champ.
Top level: High Class A (Bradenton) | 2014 rank: 20
14Jorge Soler, RF
AGE: 22DOB: 2/25/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 215
AVG: .292OBP: .330OPS: .903HR: 5SB: 1
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After a year and a half of good performance interrupted by numerous injuries that left him struggling to stay on the field, Soler reached the majors at the end of August and set expectations at an impossible level at least initially, going 10 for his first 19 with three bombs across five games. He scuffled the rest of the way as pitchers took advantage of his overaggressive approach, but the explosive bat speed and plus-plus raw power will still be enough to make him a star.
Soler has gotten much stronger since he first signed a nine-year, $30 million contract with the Cubs in 2012, retaining much of his athleticism but losing some running speed as he bulked up. He always had enormous power thanks to very rapid hand acceleration and a beautiful, rotational swing with long extension through contact. He has a right fielder's arm and the ability to be an average or better defender there, but for now his routes are a bit suspect and he'll need more work out there to avoid being the new Domonic Brown. Soler wasn't patient in the majors, but he had been so in the minors, and I expect that skill to return as he gains experience in the majors and stops trying to recreate what he did in those first five games. He projects as a 25-30 homer guy who hits .270-280 with a solid OBP and, we hope, average defense, which would make him maybe the Cubs' third- or fourth-best hitter in their suddenly loaded lineup.
Top level: Majors (Cubs) | 2014 rank: 26
15Miguel Sano, 3B
AGE: 21DOB: 5/11/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 235
AVG: .236OBP: .344OPS: .915HR: 19SB: 2
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Stats listed are from 2013. Didn't play in 2014 due to injury.
Sano missed all of 2014 after Tommy John surgery and is expected to be ready to go this spring training, but the loss of a full year of at-bats -- he didn't even play in the AFL or winter ball -- won't do his development or timetable any favors. When healthy, Sano has grade-80 raw power, with the potential to hit 30-35 homers a year in the majors, generating that output with a rotational swing that makes good use of his hips and legs. He's done a good job of improving his ball/strike recognition, but will probably always be a 150-plus strikeout guy, as he can overswing and expands his zone when behind in the count.
He's always been rough at third base, and if the arm doesn't come all the way back, that'll speed his move to another position, likely first base due to his sheer size, although the bat will profile anywhere on the field. It may take him a few weeks or months to shake off the rust, and he's more likely to see the majors in 2016 than 2015. He's still the Twins' cleanup hitter of the future now that this injury is completely behind him.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2014 rank: 8
16Hunter Harvey, RHP
AGE: 20DOB: 12/9/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 175
W-L: 7-5ERA: 3.18IP: 87.2SO: 106BB: 33
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Less well-known than his system-mate Dylan Bundy, Harvey came out of the chute in 2014 with a bang before his delivery started to break down on him in the second half, leading to a minor elbow issue that caused the Orioles to shut him down at the end of July. That shutdown was merely precautionary and he's expected to be fine in 2015, when the emphasis will be on dialing down his tremendous stuff to work more on the art of pitching.
Harvey sits 91-96 mph with hard, boring life that threatens to break right-handed hitters' bats, making it hard for hitters to elevate the ball against him. His out pitch is a hard 77-80 mph curveball with power and depth, flashing plus, although he doesn't command the pitch that well and relied on Sally League hitters who had no chance to pick up its spin. His changeup is rudimentary, and he prefers to use the curveball against left-handed hitters; the change is 83-86 with minimal action, and he had many starts in which he barely used it at all. Ultimately he'll need that third pitch because of the way his curveball tends to break in toward left-handed hitters' bats, but the biggest issue for Harvey is in maintaining his mechanics. As the year went on, he went from being slightly closed but mostly on line to throwing increasingly across his body, which gave him some glove-side run at the cost of command and possibly health. I don't think it's a coincidence that Harvey's elbow barked as his delivery became more cross-fire, so the priority now is keeping him on line while forcing him to throw more changeups. It's a special arm, with the potential for two 6s or 7s in his fastball and curve, and the body and athleticism to pitch near the top of a rotation.
Top level: Class A (Delmarva) | 2014 rank: 38
17Noah Syndergaard, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 8/29/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-6WT: 240
W-L: 9-7ERA: 4.60IP: 133.0SO: 145BB: 43
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Syndergaard just keeps chugging along fairly quietly compared to most pitchers who throw 95-plus, getting results while refining his off-speed stuff gradually but consistently. He's now to the point where he seems like the safest bet of any of the premium pitching prospects on this list. Syndergaard will hold mid-90s into the seventh inning, working with what seems like negative effort, and his changeup is plus at 78-79. His curveball, about a grade-35 pitch when he was first drafted by Toronto in 2010, has advanced to be at least solid-average, showing as a 55 in most outings, playing up in particular because he can throw the pitch for strikes.
His Triple-A stat line was hurt by his home park, a very good environment for hitters, and some generally bad luck, but to the extent that it forced him to continue to refine his command -- which is already a strength -- the experience won't hurt him. The Norse God of Velocity is ready for the call to Queens, with the floor of an above-average starter who can carry 200-plus-inning workloads.
Top level: Triple-A (Las Vegas) | 2014 rank: 24
18Daniel Norris, LHP
AGE: 21DOB: 4/25/93B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 180
W-L: 3-1ERA: 3.18IP: 22.2SO: 38BB: 8
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The Blue Jays have done an excellent job turning raw teenage pitchers into legitimate starting-pitcher prospects, whether for trade (Syndergaard) or their own uses, as in the case of Norris, who entered their system as an erratic arm-strength guy who needed major delivery help just to be able to throw strikes. On any given night, Norris can show you four average or better pitches, with a plus slider and changeup and the ability to touch the mid-90s (though at the risk of coming out of his delivery).
At 90-92, Norris can stay on line to the plate and maintains some fastball command, but when he humps up to try to throw harder he tends to land on the side of his foot and spin off, which is when he loses his command. He's athletic enough to be able to maintain a consistent delivery, and the raw stuff is certainly there -- he was fifth in the minors in strikeouts in 2014 -- for him to be a front-line major league starter.
Top level: MLB (Toronto) | 2014 rank: Unranked
19Braden Shipley, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 2/22/1992B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 190
W-L: 7-8ERA: 3.86IP: 126SO: 127BB: 42
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The knock on Shipley as an amateur was that his breaking ball, which the coaching staff at Nevada never called, wasn't good enough, but once he was unleashed by the Diamondbacks, it turned out he had a really good 12-to-6 curveball with power and depth to it. Shipley, a converted position player who has been pitching full-time for only three years, has always had a plus changeup, 83-86 with late downward action, and easy velocity, 92-95 with a little more when he needs it, so he's working now with three above-average pitches.
The areas for improvement now are in fastball command and the lack of plane or movement on the pitch, which may make him more homer-prone as he moves up the ladder. He can get ground balls and miss bats with both secondary offerings, and the Diamondbacks have cleaned up a little hand break that might have tipped his pitches, giving him at least No. 3 starter potential, with the chance to be more depending on how much his command develops.
Top level: Double-A (Mobile) | 2014 rank: 25
20Henry Owens, LHP
AGE: 22DOB: 7/21/92B/T: L/LHT: 6-6WT: 205
W-L: 17-5ERA: 2.94IP: 159SO: 170BB: 59
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Owens continues to rack up huge strikeout numbers (fourth in the minors in 2014) despite the lack of a big fastball, thanks to one of the minors' best changeups and a ton of deception that leaves hitters guessing until it's almost too late to adjust to whatever he's thrown. He still has some projection remaining, and some work to do on the breaking ball, putting him perhaps a half-year away from the major league rotation once there's a spot for him.
Owens will pitch at 90-94 mph, even sitting in the lower end of that range but getting a little more velocity once he needs it. The changeup is his money pitch, as his arm speed is indistinguishable between that and the fastball and he knows how and when to use it, but in the early part of 2014, hitters started to adjust to the fact that he was mostly fastball/changeup, forcing him to work on the curveball more to change eye levels. That pitch, in the mid- to upper 60s in high school, is now 72-76 and at least fringe-average with a change to be above-average to plus in time; the spin is there, but the rotation needs to keep getting tighter, though the fact that he can throw it for strikes is a huge help already. He'll probably pitch with an average fastball or just slightly better, but a 70 change and a 55 curveball with good command and an advanced feel for setting up hitters adds up to a well above-average major league starter.
Top level: Triple-A (Pawtucket) | 2014 rank: 42
21Archie Bradley, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 8/10/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 235
W-L: 3-7ERA: 4.45IP: 83SO: 75BB: 49
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It was something of a lost year in 2014 for Bradley, who missed two months in the first half because of an elbow injury (called a flexor mass strain) that didn't require surgery. He never quite looked like his old self after his return, even in his stint in the Arizona Fall League. His stuff was all or mostly there, 92-95 mph touching 97 with an above-average curveball in the low 80s, but didn't have quite the same bite as before, especially not the curveball, which previously graded out as a 70 but this year was more like a 55. Flexor-pronator strains, in which the muscle stretches and starts to tear, reduce flexion in the wrist and fingers, which would in turn reduce the snap or finish on a curveball. He also never had the same command or control as he'd had before, and command was never a strength for Bradley, who came into pro ball without as much pitching experience as his peers because he was also a highly rated high school quarterback.
Bradley still has the raw ingredients to be a top-of-a-rotation starter, between his size, delivery and the chance for two plus pitches. If the tear has completely healed after an offseason of rest -- it's typically not associated with elbow ligament tears in pitchers this young -- look for Bradley's old curveball to be back and his command to improve, which would put him back on the fast track to the big leagues.
Top level: Triple-A (Reno) | 2014 rank: 9
22Jon Gray, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 11/5/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 235
W-L: 10-5ERA: 3.91IP: 124.1SO: 113BB: 41
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Gray's first full season in pro ball was solid. Perhaps a bit below reasonable expectations given his stuff and draft status (he went No. 3 overall in 2013), but a good foundation for him going forward as he works on developing that all-important third pitch and learning the craft of pitching. Gray would hit 100 mph in college, but didn't flash that while pitching every fifth day last year, and was mostly 89-94 with the occasional 95 or 96, working more on trying to sink the ball or keep it down in the zone so he could be more efficient with his pitches. His slider was above-average rather than plus, but his changeup, not a new pitch but a new emphasis for him, was solid-average or better by the end of the season.
He's not likely to ever have plus command, so the key variable for Gray will be re-establishing either the fastball (via velocity) or slider as a bona fide out pitch again, which they weren't during 2014. His summer ended slightly early due to a sore shoulder, but he's expected to be ready to go in March; perhaps fatigue was behind the slightly reduced velocity. As is, he's a solid future rotation member, but closer to average than an ace. If he gets his old swagger back, he'll regain that status as a potential No. 1.
Top level: Double-A (Tulsa) | 2014 rank: 12
23Aaron Judge, OF
AGE: 22DOB: 4/26/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-7WT: 230
AVG: .308OBP: .419OPS: .905HR: 17SB: 1
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Judge's size was expected to be an impediment to his ability to hit, but so far it hasn't proven to be an obstacle at all. He showed outstanding plate discipline and ability to make contact in his first full year in pro ball while giving glimpses of the huge raw power you'd expect from someone of his build. Judge shouldn't have started his professional career in the low-A Sally League since he was a 22-year-old college product, but the Yankees got him to the Florida State League midyear, and he continued to rake while proving he can get on base and hit a few balls over the fence.
Judge has a short swing, surprisingly so given the length of his arms, and very strong command of the strike zone (which is partly why I didn't like seeing him in low-A to start the year). The challenge for him will be to learn when he can uncoil and turn on a ball without losing that compact stroke, which keeps his contact rate up. He hit 17 bombs this year, plus four more in the Arizona Fall League, so there's some power there, but he should be able to hit 30 without needing to get bigger or stronger. He's an above-average defender in right, faster than you'd expect, with the arm to profile there and the potential to post strong triple-slash numbers if he can make that one big adjustment.
Top level: High Class A (Tampa) | 2014 rank: Unranked
24Jose Peraza, 2B/SS
AGE: 20DOB: 4/30/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 165
AVG: .339OBP: .364OPS: .806HR: 2SB: 60
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Peraza is a natural shortstop, but the presence of defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons in the major league lineup has led Atlanta to try Peraza at second base, where he should be a 65 or 70 defender and half of a historically great middle-infield tandem when he gets settled in the majors. At the plate, he has a very compact, direct swing that produces line-drive contact without power. He's a 70 runner, albeit from the right side, enough to have high impact on the bases but not enough to give him Billy Hamilton-type value from pushing bunts toward third base. He's not a patient hitter since his hand-eye coordination and short stroke mean he can square up almost anything in the zone. As long as he's hitting .330, that trick works, but Howie Kendrick, who hit .360 in his minor league career, can testify to how that skill doesn't always translate to the majors if you don't work the count.
Peraza has a very high floor, as Kendrick did, thanks to his speed, defense and ability to make contact. He could become an impact leadoff guy if he can work himself into 20-30 more walks a year.
Top level: Double-A (Mississippi) | 2014 rank: 99
25Kyle Zimmer, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 9/13/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 215
W-L: 0-0ERA: 1.93IP: 4.2SO: 5BB: 4
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When healthy, Zimmer shows ace-caliber stuff -- a fastball up to 97-98 mph, a plus-plus curveball, a plus changeup -- with a strong build and good control. Unfortunately for Zimmer and the Royals, he hasn't been healthy for most of the past 18 months, finally succumbing to a shoulder ailment that required minor surgery (a debridement, to clear out debris and loose bodies in the joint) in October. The shoulder has been bothering him in various presentations since late summer 2013, limiting him to just 14 1/3 innings total in the last calendar year, and he might not be ready to return to the mound until late April 2015. The surgery was successful and minor, and if that means his stuff is back without the tightness and discomfort, the Royals can work on building his strength back up over the summer and perhaps giving him a major league trial in the bullpen in the fall, the way they did with Brandon Finnegan in 2014.
When healthy -- and he showed it again for two starts in the Fall League before he got hurt -- he'll pitch at 93-97, spin a tight 11-to-5 curveball up to 80 mph with depth, and flash a late-tailing changeup at 86-87. His slider is still a below-average offering, and I think he'd be fine without it since he already has two above-average secondary pitches and his slot is more conducive to the true curveball anyway. His upside is near that of anyone on this list; right now it's about proving he can stay healthy for a full season.
Top level: Double-A (Northwest Arkansas) | 2014 rank: 10
26Dylan Bundy, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 11/15/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-1WT: 195
W-L: 1-3ERA: 3.27IP: 41.1SO: 37BB: 16
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Bundy went into the 2013 season as the top pitching prospect in baseball, then blew out his elbow -- perhaps the result of very heavy usage in high school -- but was back on the mound pitching in competitive games less than a year after surgery. His stuff was not back yet, though. It was good, but not as electric as it had been before the ligament screamed; he was up to 98 mph with a plus cutter, big but sharp curveball and some feel for a fringe-average or better changeup. He was more 90-94 over the summer, barely using his cutter (probably on orders from above), with less consistency on the curveball but occasionally breaking off a good one. He touched 96 in early August before the Orioles shut him down due to a strained lat muscle, so there's hope he's just slow in regaining his velocity and will have his old stuff this spring after a long offseason of rest.
He seemed like a sure-fire No. 1 starter before his injury, with a great delivery that generated power from his legs and a major league out pitch in the cutter. This spring will probably tell us whether that ceiling remains.
Top level: Majors (Baltimore) | 2014 rank: 31
27David Dahl, OF
AGE: 20DOB: 4/1/94B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 195
AVG: .299OBP: .335OPS: .827HR: 14SB: 21
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Dahl was the Rockies' first pick in 2012, but a badly torn hamstring wiped out most of his 2013 season, so he entered 2014 having faced no live pitching in about 11 months. Dahl showed up for spring training in outstanding shape, having added some muscle for more strength and bat control, still running plus despite the previous leg injury. He's always had good bat speed, and he tweaked his swing to increase the torque he gets from his hip rotation, which should lead to greater power in time, although much of the boost he got in Asheville this year came from his home park (he slugged .556 at home, .438 on the road). Once he got his timing back, he was able to murder fastballs from lefties and righties, but left-handed breaking stuff still gives him some trouble, and he'll roll a lot of soft, away pitches over to the second baseman.
He's an above-average defender in center, trending toward plus as long as he doesn't lose speed as he matures physically (or to another catastrophic injury), and as long as he can stay there he projects as an above-average regular. Dahl did make some adjustments to his plan at the plate at the behest of the Rockies' coaches, working the count more effectively before his promotion to high-A, which will be key to him reaching his ceiling. Now that the rust is off, he should be ready for the breakout year I thought he might have in 2014.
Top level: High Class A (Modesto) | 2014 rank: 47
28Joc Pederson, CF
AGE: 22DOB: 4/21/1992B/T: L/LHT: 6-1WT: 185
AVG: .303OBP: .435OPS: 1.017HR: 33SB: 30
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I thought Pederson was ready for a call-up late in the summer, particularly since he can handle center field and the Dodgers didn't have a true center fielder on their major league roster, but his passivity at the plate was exploited by big league pitchers in September. He's a very good athlete with an unusual power/speed combination that could make him a 4-5 WAR player in center as long as he can take better advantage when he gets ahead in the count, and adjust when he falls behind.
Playing a full season in one of the minors' best hitters parks, Albuquerque, probably didn't help his development, although he still punched out in 27 percent of his plate appearances there. He may always be a high-strikeout guy, but because he's not cluelessly hacking up there, I think he can manage that down to a reasonable level and become a 25-homer guy who adds value with speed and defense.
Top level: Majors (LA Dodgers) | 2014 rank: 41
29Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
AGE: 21DOB: 4/7/93B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 200
W-L: 6-8ERA: 3.60IP: 120SO: 108BB: 37
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The Red Sox stole Rodriguez from the Orioles in a deadline deal for reliever Andrew Miller, who is a great pitcher to be sure, but not enough to make me willing to give up six years of Rodriguez, who has the elements to be a No. 1 starter with a few developmental hurdles ahead of him. Rodriguez is up to 97 mph with his fastball and will sit between 93 and 95, with a plus changeup, quick arm and athletic delivery. He seemed to gain confidence after the trade, throwing harder with better strikes once he went to Boston.
Fastball command is one real issue, although the Red Sox were pleased with how well he could work side to side with the pitch, and the slider is another, as I've seen it anywhere from a 50 grade to a 40. To be a No. 1 or No. 2, he needs to have that as a solid average or better pitch. He turns 22 in April, young enough for these two problem areas to improve, and the change of scenery seems to have agreed with him. He's not major league-ready, and is not likely to be so this year, but he should be in Boston's rotation in 2016.
Top level: Double-A (Portland) | 2014 rank: 43
30Alex Meyer, RHP
AGE: 25DOB: 1/30/90B/T: R/RHT: 6-9WT: 220
W-L: 7-7ERA: 3.52IP: 130.1SO: 153BB: 64
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Meyer still hasn't quite put everything together to be a front-line starting pitching prospect, but he's closer than he's been before, and with two plus pitches and a history of durability he would be wasting some of his talent if he had to go to the bullpen. Meyer has hit 100 mph and sits in the mid-90s with huge sink that will kill a lot of worms at Target Field, with a vicious slider up to 90 mph or so that kills right-handed batters. His control wavers, although taller pitchers often need more reps and time to get their deliveries in sync, and his discomfort with his changeup has long held him back against left-handed hitters. He altered his grip early in 2014, but wasn't that confident in the pitch until the end of the summer, when the Twins feel like it finally clicked for him (although it's really not even an average pitch on its own).
Anything that keeps left-handed hitters, who see the ball better from his low three-quarters slot, off his fastball is a good thing, and might allow him to jump into Minnesota's rotation this year, where the major league staff can continue to work with him on hitting the lower end of the zone.
Top level: Triple-A (Rochester) | 2014 rank: 62
31Nomar Mazara, OF
AGE: 19DOB: 4/26/95B/T: L/LHT: 6-4WT: 195
AVG: .271OBP: .362OPS: .840HR: 22SB: 4
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When the Rangers signed Mazara for $5 million in 2011, it set a record for an international amateur, which stood for three years and led to the change in the system for such "July 2" players that we now have in the current collective bargaining agreement. It also led to a lot of sniping that Mazara wasn't worth the price. But that appears to have been wrong, as he has shown an advanced feel to hit at a very young age, reaching Double-A last year after a two-level jump even though he won't turn 20 until April.
Mazara has plus bat speed and excellent hand-eye coordination -- the fact that his approach is a little noisy doesn't seem to hold him back -- while his ball-strike recognition has improved substantially over the past two years. He still has some weaknesses against breaking stuff, and I wouldn't be shocked if he struggles out of the gate in Double-A this year, but at the same time, he has the elements (bat speed, eye and wrist strength) to put up adequate production even as he's learning to make adjustments. He might be a full two years away from the majors, with the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat, hitting 25 bombs with a .280/.360/.520 kind of line when he finishes filling out.
Top level: Double-A (Frisco) | 2014 rank: Unranked
32Austin Meadows, OF
AGE: 19DOB: 5/3/95B/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 200
AVG: .317OBP: .394OPS: .881HR: 3SB: 2
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Meadows' season started very late due to a severe hamstring pull that just wouldn't heal, keeping him in extended spring into June and limiting him to just 164 plate appearances in the regular season. When he did return, he played as well as could be expected for a teenager who lost about three months' worth of at-bats, showing a good approach and flashes of the power -- if not the speed -- he'd shown in high school that made him the ninth pick in the 2013 draft. Meadows played center field in low Class A this year, but there's no chance he remains there in pro ball. I think he profiles better in right field, perhaps even more so because left field in PNC Park is difficult to play, and should be above average in either corner due to his running speed.
At the plate, he's a low-heartbeat hitter, very calm about his at-bats, willing to work the count but primarily hunting for something he can drive. The Pirates have worked with him to extract more of that power from his contact because he was hitting the ball on the ground far too often for a guy his size. The power must come for him to be a regular in a corner, but if it comes, it's going to be 25-plus homers and a slew of doubles, which, along with his hit tool and above-average speed (when his hamstring permits it), would make him a star.
Top level: Class A (West Virginia) | 2014 rank: 35
33Eddie Butler, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 5/13/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
W-L: 6-10ERA: 4.00IP: 117SO: 69BB: 37
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Butler would be ensconced in the Rockies' rotation already were it not for a recurring shoulder issue that bothered him right after his first major league start and popped up again in September, scotching plans to send him to the Arizona Fall League. When healthy, Butler can pitch at 95-98 mph with plus sink, coming from a low three-quarters arm slot that is very tough on right-handed hitters, and he shows a plus slider in the upper 80s that is a swing-and-miss pitch for righties, especially those busy trying to cover the inner half against the fastball. His changeup is inconsistent but can be plus, with fading action comparable to that of a two-seam fastball; unfortunately he doesn't have the feel for it to neutralize left-handed hitters, who hit .290/.342/.507 against him in 2014. (That includes his splits from three MLB starts, when lefties went 11-for-28 with two bombs and no strikeouts against him.)
The rotator cuff is supposed to be 100 percent again, but given that issue, his low slot and widening platoon splits, there's a higher chance now that he ends up a dominant eighth- or ninth-inning guy. The Rockies have every reason to continue to work him as a starter, of course, and if his arm permits it, they should let him compete for a spot in the rotation again this spring.
Top level: Majors (Colorado) | 2014 rank: 17
34Tyler Kolek, RHP
AGE: 19DOB: 12/15/95B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 260
W-L: 0-3ERA: 4.50IP: 22.0SO: 18BB: 13
lastname
If "The Golem" was a pitcher, this is what it would look like: 6-foot-7, 275 or so (he's generously still listed at 260), with a fastball that can reach 100 mph and regularly sits 94-97, and a very hard slider. It's the raw material for a staff ace, a Jeff Niemann build without the Rice workload, but needs a lot of refinement to become a pitcher rather than a thrower. Kolek doesn't command either of his pitches well, and lacked a real weapon for lefties in high school, trying to backdoor his slider rather than come in with either pitch. His changeup is in its infancy, with the Marlins trying just to emphasize maintaining his arm speed as they work on building consistency in his delivery without making it stiff or slow.
The challenge for Kolek will be learning the finer points of pitching -- command, setting up hitters, mixing pitches -- even though he'll be able to overpower A-ball hitters with pure stuff. I don't think he's a fast mover given how much work there is to do, but there are few prospects anywhere in the minors who look more like a front-line starter than Kolek does.
Top level: Rookie (GCL Marlins) | 2014 rank: Ineligible
35Jorge Alfaro, C
AGE: 21DOB: 6/11/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 185
AVG: .261OBP: .323OPS: .763HR: 17SB: 6
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Alfaro is an enticing, yet maddening, mix of monumental tools and consistent inconsistency: He can look like an All-Star one at-bat or inning and like a 21-year-old kid (which he is) the next. Alfaro has 80 raw power, with an 80 arm behind the plate, and he has the hands and athleticism to be an above-average receiver as well, with the bat speed to hit for a high average. Alfaro's issue is that he plays hard all the time; he's fourth gear, full throttle on every play, which means he can be too aggressive at the plate (walking on around five percent of his career plate appearances) and behind the dish (he can drag pitches out of the zone because he's moving his hands too much).
He signed as a raw 16-year-old out of Colombia and has made big strides in learning the mental side of the game, even carrying a notebook to keep track of hitter tendencies so he can improve his game-calling. He has All-Star upside behind the plate, because he should hit 20-25 homers with a solid average but low OBP, and should end up controlling the running game as well as any backstop in the big leagues.
Top level: Double-A (Frisco) | 2014 rank: 44
36Jameson Taillon, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 11/18/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 245
W-L: 5-10ERA: 3.73IP: 147.1SO: 143BB: 52
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Note: Stats listed are from the 2013 season.
Taillon was likely headed for a June call-up to PNC Park in 2014, but his elbow snapped in spring training shortly after teammate Clayton Holmes' did the same, making them partners in Tommy John surgery rehab and wiping out the entire season. His rehab has gone well, and the Pirates are hoping to get him back on a mound by the middle of the season, deliberately taking it cautiously given his tremendous upside if he returns to full health.
Before the surgery, Taillon's fastball sat in the mid-90s and could comfortably get to 97 or 98 when he needed to, with a breaking ball that flashed plus, and his size and frame pointed toward the ability to handle 200-inning workloads. He had issues with command, in part due to a tendency to overthrow both pitches and miss to his glove side but perhaps also because there was something wrong or unstable in his elbow in 2013. He didn't have great deception and needed to continue to refine his changeup, the latter of which would have been a priority for him in Triple-A at the start of last year. The calculated rehab process is a good opportunity for the Pirates to address some of these issues, like maintaining his tempo and keeping him on line to the plate so he can command the fastball, while working to both get him healthy and give him the opportunity to help the major league club in September and October.
Top level: Triple-A (Indianapolis) | 2014 rank: 27
37Aaron Blair, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 5/26/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 230
W-L: 9-5ERA: 3.56IP: 154SO: 171BB: 51
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Although I don't have them ranked this way, there's a decent argument that Blair is the best of Arizona's "big three" pitching prospects, and I know some folks in the Diamondbacks' organization believe he is. That's a testament both to their player development and to Blair's relentless work ethic, as he has gone from being a big kid with arm strength who profiled as a two-pitch reliever to a no-doubt three-pitch starter who profiles as a potential No. 2.
Blair hits 91-95 with his fastball and can touch 97, but he's more comfortable in the low 90s, where he gets more sink. He pairs that with a plus changeup that makes him very tough on left-handed hitters. He really improved his breaking ball this year, raising his arm slot slightly to make it more of a true curveball, getting power to it in the low 80s for a put-away pitch but also flipping it in the low 70s when he needs a get-me-over strike. He's a great athlete who probably didn't get enough credit for it in the draft because of his sheer size, but that has helped him make adjustments and keep his delivery on line to the plate. His control was improving all summer, with 10 walks in his first seven Double-A starts, until he had a six-walk outing in his final appearance of the year. Don't overlook him in the mix with Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley, as Blair might be the most major league-ready of the three and has at least an equal chance to remain in the rotation.
Top level: Double-A (Mobile) | 2014 rank: Unranked
38Raul Mondesi Jr., SS
AGE: 19DOB: 7/27/95B/T: B/RHT: 6-1WT: 165
AVG: .211OBP: .256OPS: .610HR: 8SB: 17
lastname
Mondesi was the youngest high-A regular by six months, so his struggles at the plate in 2014 aren't a huge surprise; he's physically immature compared to just about everyone else in the Carolina League and doesn't have as much pro experience either. Mondesi is a true shortstop with good actions, plus running speed and very good feel to hit. Despite poor walk/strikeout numbers, he actually has a good idea of the strike zone and ability to recognize pitches. He likes to bunt to try to reach base, especially when hitting left-handed, which the Royals view as an important part of his game as long as it doesn't detract from his development as a hitter, especially since he projects to have average power once his body fills out.
To give you some sense of how young Mondesi was for high-A, there were only five players younger than him to get at least 200 plate appearances in 2014 in low-A, so while it's certainly disappointing that he didn't make more contact, there's a lot of time as well as reason to remain optimistic. He needs to develop a better two-strike approach, and he also has a slight leak when hitting right-handed that robs him of extra-base power. The defense at short and overall aptitude still project to make him a star once his strength arrives.
Top level: High Class A (Wilmington) | 2014 rank: 22
39Hunter Renfroe, RF
AGE: 23DOB: 1/28/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 200
AVG: .232OBP: .307OPS: .659HR: 5SB: 2
lastname
Renfroe has four above-average tools, including plus raw power and a plus arm, as well as the ability to run and play good defense in right field, so the main question was and is how much he's going to hit for average. He's ahead of expectations so far, posting solid contact rates in high-A and even in a tougher hitter's environment in Double-A, and the Padres were wise to refuse to deal him in any of their high-profile moves this winter.
Renfroe is built like an NFL cornerback, strong but athletic, and has the juice you'd expect from someone of his build, with a hard swing and heavy hip rotation, and good loft in his finish, though he can sometimes over-rotate a little and swing above the ball in the lower half of the zone. His bat speed is just fair, which is probably the genesis of questions about his hit tool, but the contact he makes is hard enough to compensate for 150 or so strikeouts a year. He has improved his reads in right field since entering pro ball, and his arm allows him to make more plays than the typical right fielder, to the point where he'll ultimately be a 5-10 runs per year defender. Petco may hold down his home run numbers, but in a neutral park he's a 25-plus homer guy who might steal 10-15 bases and hit .250-260 with a bunch of walks, a very good everyday player who should be ready for the majors by the end of this year.
Top level: Double-A (San Antonio) | 2014 rank: 94
40Jesse Winker, LF
AGE: 21DOB: 8/17/93B/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 210
AVG: .287OBP: .399OPS: .917HR: 15SB: 5
lastname
Winker is one of the most advanced pure hitters in the minors, considering swing, hand-eye coordination, approach and ability to make contact, and he'd rank higher if he had any place to play other than left field. Winker is a very confident hitter, extremely selective but clearly looking for something to hit, with an unbelievably simple approach and quick hand acceleration, so he can let the ball travel and still put a really good swing on the ball to drive it out to right-center.
In left field, he has had the reputation of a below-average fielder, but I've seen him play average or above-average defense out there. His reads are very good and he has enough speed to cover it, although his arm wouldn't play in right. He might not hit for much power in Pensacola (with the wind coming in off the bay) or Louisville, but he's probably an 18-22 homer guy with a .400 OBP in the major leagues, someone who'll be discussed as one of the toughest outs in baseball.
Top level: Double-A (Pensacola) | 2014 rank: Unranked
41Michael Conforto, LF
AGE: 2121DOB: 3/1/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 211
AVG: .331OBP: .403OPS: .851HR: 3SB: 3
lastname
Conforto was the best pure college hitter in the 2014 draft class, with a tremendous combination of feel to hit, an advanced approach and above-average power, but he slipped to the 10th overall pick probably because he's limited to playing left field, in which he had a rough reputation dating back to his freshman year. He has improved significantly on defense between his reads on balls and his throwing accuracy and now projects as an average or better defender there.
What he truly brings to the table, however, is his bat. He loads a little high and deep, but his hands are quick, so he can get the bat head into the zone quickly, and he rotates his hips well for power from right field out to center. He's a patient hitter -- he led Division I in OBP and walks in the spring and finished fifth in the New York-Penn League in OBP this summer -- but he's not passive. I see him as a fantastic two-hole hitter, posting high averages and OBPs with 20-homer power while adding value with his defense and smart baserunning.
Top level: Low Class A (Brooklyn) | 2014 rank: Ineligible
42Dalton Pompey, CF
AGE: 22DOB: 12/11/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-2WT: 195
AVG: .317OBP: .392OPS: .861HR: 9SB: 43
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Pompey will try to accomplish the Herculean task of going from low Class A to major league leadoff hitter inside of two years, no small feat for the 22-year-old Canadian prospect who came to pro ball without a tremendous amount of playing experience. Pompey has an extremely advanced approach at the plate for someone so young, combining excellent pitch recognition with the ability to know what pitches to take. He's a switch-hitter with a shorter, simpler swing from the left side, much more balanced but using his lower half less, while on the right side he gets a little longer but with more rotation, likely to make somewhat less contact but hit for more power when he does.
He's a plus runner with good instincts in center, and the Jays were impressed enough by his confidence and lack of panic (such as when he started out 3-for-36 in Double-A) that they were willing to promote him to the majors, his fourth level of the season, at the end of 2014. He needs to get stronger, but otherwise his bat and glove appear to be ready for the majors right now, with his eventual peak being that of a high-OBP, 40-steal leadoff hitter who plays plus defense in center field.
Top level: Majors (Toronto) | 2014 rank: Unranked
43Nick Gordon, SS
AGE: 19DOB: 10/24/95B/T: L/RHT: 6-0WT: 160
AVG: .294OBP: .333OPS: .699HR: 1SB: 11
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Gordon, the son of Tom Gordon and half-brother of Marlins second baseman Dee, was the fourth pick in the 2014 draft and the first position player taken, a testament to his very advanced feel for the game and ability to play a key position in the middle of the diamond. Gordon was a sophomore on Olympia High School's team when Jesse Winker was a senior, and he spent two summers out at showcases, so scouts have a lot of history seeing him. He also has played a lot of games against very good competition. He improved his footwork and hands at short this spring, to the point at which I think he'll stay at the position and play it well. He has the arm to play anywhere on the diamond but would probably have to go to center field if for some reason he can't stay at short.
His bat-to-ball skill is strong, and he has a good approach for his age, with doubles power at best and above-average but not plus speed, so drawing more walks to post a high OBP will be key for Gordon as he moves up the ladder. His ceiling is an everyday shortstop who can hit leadoff in a good lineup; the floor might be more of an 8- or 9-hole hitter if he doesn't develop a more patient approach.
Top level: Rookie (Elizabethton) | 2014 rank: Ineligible
44Mark Appel, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 7/15/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 225
W-L: 3-7ERA: 6.91IP: 83.1SO: 78BB: 24
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Appel's 2014 started out in the most miserable fashion -- an appendectomy, an abbreviated spring training and an assignment to pitch on the surface of Mercury -- for the Lancaster Jethawks in the California League. He was awful there, showing velocity but neither command nor his old aggressiveness, and he had an ERA over 10 until his last start, his best at the level and all the reason Houston needed to promote him to Double-A, at which he performed much more in line with expectations.
Appel's velocity remains plus at 93-97 mph, although the pitch is straight and he doesn't have much deception in his delivery. His slider is also plus, 84-88 mph with varying tilt, and he throws it for strikes, even using it when he needs to get ahead in the count. His changeup has been inconsistent from start to start, sometimes average or a tick above, with good arm speed, coming in other outings too firm at 87-88, like a batting practice fastball. He's fine out of the windup, but with men on base his delivery starts to come apart, and his command goes along with it. Appel is an outstanding athlete and very competitive kid, but his delivery had lost some of its fluidity by the end of the year and he tended to rush his finish, although he was finishing on line and in good position to hit the plate. I don't think he has No. 1 starter upside and is most likely a very good No. 3 or 4, a durable pitcher who can handle 200 innings and will turn in a half-dozen "wow" outings each year, but settles in as above average without becoming a star.
Top level: Double-A (Corpus Christi) | 2014 rank: 11
45Kevin Plawecki, C
AGE: 23DOB: 2/26/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 225
AVG: .309OBP: .365OPS: .825HR: 11SB: 0
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Ask anyone in a major league front office about the state of catching in MLB, and you'll probably get a scatological term in response: There isn't enough of it to go around, and if you aren't lucky enough to have one of the dozen or so good ones, you're constantly looking to upgrade. That means prospects such as Plawecki, a good receiver who can hit and is about ready for the majors, have very high value not just in terms of future production, but also in the trade market. Plawecki, the Mets' second-round pick in 2012 out of Purdue, has great hands behind the plate and should be a strong framer pitchers want to throw to, with a good feel for the softer aspects of catching, such as game-calling. His arm is just average, and I think even with his work ethic, he'll top out as a 30 percent caught-stealing guy.
At the plate, he might have the shortest swing of anyone in the top 100, very consistent and simple, with strong hands to let him run into a dozen or so homers a year with a slew of doubles. His ability to hit for average should separate him from other catchers -- only five regular or semi-regular catchers hit .280 in 2014, and only 14 hit even .260 -- with added value from his glove, all boosted by the fact that he could play every day for someone by the middle of 2015.
Top level: Triple-A (Las Vegas) | 2014 rank: Unranked
46Andrew Susac, C
AGE: 24DOB: 3/22/90B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 215
AVG: .273OBP: .326OPS: .792HR: 3SB: 0
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Susac is a high-probability big league regular behind the plate, and might be the player who lets the Giants ease Buster Posey out from catching to a position where he might get more at-bats while reducing his risk of another major injury. Susac is a plus throwing catcher, nailing more than a third of runners in his pro career, with good arm strength and a simple release, and he has developed into a solid-average receiver whom the Giants trust to handle their staff. At the plate, he's more of a power hitter than a hitter for average; he has a noisy lower half, and he loads his hands low by the base of his ribs, getting good leverage in his swing but probably working too much to his pull side.
If he gets to play every day, which may not happen right away in San Francisco, he'd hit .260-270 with 20 bombs and add a few runs of value on his defense, good enough to start in 2015 for maybe half the teams in the majors.
Top level: Majors (Giants) | 2014 rank: Just missed
47Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 10/7/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 220
W-L: 7-7ERA: 5.08IP: 102.2SO: 102BB: 52
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Foltynewicz went from Houston to Atlanta in the January trade that sent Evan Gattis to the Astros, but he alone is a more valuable asset than Gattis is and should help Atlanta in the near term. He's a high-beta prospect with the upside of a potential No. 1 starter if he can develop a more consistent arm slot and find an average third pitch to go along with an 80-grade fastball and 70-grade curveball. He drops down on the fastball at times and comes back up to get depth on the curveball, a trick that major league hitters will exploit and an impediment to his command. His changeup will show plus, and ditching his slider (which he did early in 2014) might allow him to spend more time working on the change, but the change isn't good enough now to keep lefties from sitting on his four-seamer. He has to throw more strikes, and more quality strikes, and develop that third pitch to remain in the rotation.
Drafted in the first round in 2010, he has never seen the disabled list and has the size and frame to be a durable, 200-inning starter. His floor is a Nathan Eovaldi type, and he'd be a wipeout reliever, but Atlanta has to develop him as a starter and hope the changeup comes along to the point where he can lead their rotation in 2017.
Top level: Majors (Houston) | 2014 rank: 70
48Sean Newcomb, LHP
AGE: 21DOB: 6/12/93B/T: L/LHT: 6-5WT: 240
W-L: 0-1ERA: 6.28IP: 14.1SO: 18BB: 6
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Newcomb was a top-10 talent in the 2014 draft class but fell for unknown reasons. Perhaps teams were scared off by a kid at a very small school, pitching in one of the worst conferences in Division I. Or perhaps they were concerned that he's a quiet kid who doesn't like small talk. He's also exactly what we want starting pitchers to look like: 6-foot-5, 240 pounds, with no effort to his arm action, a 55-grade fastball that touches 96 mph and two above-average secondary offerings in his changeup and curveball.
The curveball has good two-plane break and good depth, coming in the upper 70s, while the mid-80s changeup has good deception and a little late tail. He showed a slider that probably won't be a factor for him because the other three pitches are going to be plus, although I'd be curious to see what he could do with a cutter. He's at least a quality fourth starter -- assuming no improvement in anything -- but given his very limited pitching experience and the chance to work with pro coaching for the first time, I think he'll develop the command and the sharper secondary pitches to be a good No. 2.
Top level: Class A (Burlington) | 2014 rank: Ineligible
49Robert Stephenson, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 2/24/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195
W-L: 7-10ERA: 4.75IP: 136.1SO: 140BB: 74
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Stephenson can be Jekyll or Hyde on the mound, at times looking like a future No. 1 starter and at others looking like he'll end up in the bullpen. Stephenson has two plus pitches to be able to work near the front of a rotation: a fastball at 93-98 mph and a hard wrecker of a curveball with power and depth. His delivery isn't ideal -- he has a long stride and good momentum toward the plate somewhat undercut by late pronation and a stiff finish -- including some head violence that never seemed to impact his ability to throw strikes until 2014. His changeup has improved but still isn't an average third pitch, and when in trouble he still chooses the wrong box, trying to throw harder rather than thinking about changing locations or speeds.
He's reaching an inflection point in his development. If the fastball command, the changeup and the pitch selection improve, he'll get back on track to be a high-end starter; if not, those two plus pitches would make him a dynamite reliever.
Top level: Double-A (Pensacola) | 2014 rank: 29
50Ryan McMahon, 3B
AGE: 20DOB: 12/14/94B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 185
AVG: .282OBP: .358OPS: .860HR: 18SB: 8
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McMahon was Colorado's second-round pick in 2013, the 42nd overall pick, a two-sport guy in high school who had a little less baseball experience than his peers because he was busy playing hand-egg as the quarterback for Mater Dei HS in Santa Ana, California. He showed unexpected polish as a 19-year-old regular in the Sally League in 2014, with light-tower power already and solid-average defense at third base. He's extremely rotational at the plate, getting his back elbow quite high when he loads, and he may run into trouble with stuff on the outer half as he moves up the ladder. As it is, he struggled against southpaws in 2014, but that's common for young left-handed hitters as they first enter pro ball.
His range at third base is outstanding; his main area for work is on the routine play, just getting his feet started so he's in the right position to grab and throw. He's a potential middle-of-the-order bat, with 25-30 homer power; the main obstacle is his ability to cover enough of the plate given his current swing. Defensively, he has a future at third base.
Top level: Class A (Asheville) | 2014 rank: Unranked
