Executives host exhaustive meetings of scouts and evaluators to discuss big-picture visions and make long-term plans. But the two biggest deals of this winter have all the appearance of half-billion dollar impulse buys -- which is an owner's prerogative.
Within a span of 36 hours, the
Los Angeles Angels put together a $246 million offer for
Albert Pujols. Similarly, the
Detroit Tigers reacted to a season-ending knee injury to
Victor Martinez by handing out the fourth-biggest contract ever to
Prince Fielder. What the Tigers did is like fixing a blown tire by buying a Hummer with monster-truck wheels.
When deals of this size are made, there are many ripple effects:
1. Detroit's long-term payroll obligations
Tigers owner Mike Ilitch is 82 years old, and he is the worthy heir to George Steinbrenner as The Owner Most Likely To Pay For A Championship. He's writing the Fielder checks, and the dollars and cents don't have to make sense to anybody but him. But if there is a time in the next three or four years when Ilitch isn't making the decisions, the Tigers could get crushed under the weight of their enormous payroll bubble. Most of the rust belt teams have payrolls in the range of $60 million to $90 million, and because of Ilitch's desire to win, the Tigers have typically committed anywhere from $110 million to $140 million.
They owe
Miguel Cabrera $86 million for the next four seasons, and
Justin Verlander is under contract for three more seasons at
$20 million annually. We haven't seen the details of Fielder's deal yet, but it stands to reason that the Tigers will be committed to paying these three players about $65 million a year for the foreseeable future.
This deal makes sense for the
Tigers in 2012 but not beyond, writes Drew Sharp. It could be
boom then bust, writes Lynn Henning.
2. The man under the most pressure in Detroit: The official scorer
It's a statement of fact that Fielder is among the best power hitters in the game, and maybe is
the best left-handed power hitter. But it's also taken as fact among scouts that Fielder is a subpar first baseman who works at defense but is simply not deft at handling anything in the dirt -- short-hops on throws or ground balls.
And if Cabrera is correct in his assertion that he is
moving to third base -- and telling him he isn't playing that position could become a massive political problem for Detroit -- then the Tigers would field some of the sport's worst defenders in at least three of four infield positions -- first base, shortstop and third base. Yes, Cabrera came up through the minors as a shortstop and third baseman, but that was 60-70 pounds ago.
Generally, baseball executives have been veering toward increased emphasis on run prevention, and the Tigers' decision to sign Fielder takes this in the opposite direction. This may not be as big of a deal when Verlander pitches because of his ability to get through jams with strikeouts, but for someone like
Rick Porcello -- who relies on defense, with the 14th-highest
groundball ratio in the majors -- it could be a recurring problem.
Detroit's
lineup options could be difficult, but they are unlimited, writes John Lowe.
3. The market was just re-set, again
Executives with other teams were shocked by the enormity of the Fielder contract because it appeared that agent Scott Boras was boxed in by a lukewarm market. The
Boston Red Sox and
New York Yankees weren't involved in the bidding, the
Los Angeles Dodgers and
New York Mets weren't in position to bid, and the
Texas Rangers,
Washington Nationals and
Chicago Cubs all seemed to have the same attitude about Fielder: They liked him but weren't excited about committing to an eight- or nine-year deal.
But in the end, Fielder got the fourth-biggest contract in history and within minutes after the deal was announced, some officials began speculating about how this will impact the asking price of the next great slugger who may hit the market,
Joey Votto. "He's a much better defender than Fielder, he'll age better, so what's he going to get -- $250 million? $300 million?" asked one general manager.
4. Scott Boras wins, again
It hasn't been an easy winter for the sport's most prominent agent, who has seen the market for
Edwin Jackson disappear and who wound up getting a one-year deal for
Ryan Madson rather than the four years that he had asked for. But some rival agents and general managers spoke with amazement about Boras' ability to get Fielder such an enormous contract. "He pulled it out," said one GM. "This was like
Matt Holliday's negotiations all over again."
5. The Nationals stand pat
All along, there seemed to be a gap between what rivals thought the Nationals' interest in Fielder would be and what it actually was. After trading for
Gio Gonzalez, Washington was content with going to spring training with
Adam LaRoche as its first baseman. "I think Scott's keeping us in this for leverage," said one club official.
Privately, some decision-makers in the organization expressed doubts about making a long-term investment in Fielder, especially in light of how bad the
Jayson Werth deal may turn out to be.
6. The Rangers stand pat
Texas still has an
Alex Rodriguez hangover -- there are some in the organization who clearly remember the impact that one onerous contract can have on the rest of the payroll and decision-making. So while the Rangers were willing to discuss something creative with Fielder, they weren't inspired to invest $200 million in a player who they believe is best-suited to be a DH.
Right now, the highest-paid DH is
David Ortiz, who could make $16 million at most in the upcoming season. "We don't think [Fielder] is going to be a first baseman for the duration of his next contract," one club evaluator said during the process. "Why pay that much money for a one-dimensional player?"
7. The American League Central pitchers and managers have a problem
It sounds as if the Tigers are leaning toward batting Cabrera in the No. 3 spot and Fielder No. 4, but Jim Leyland could always reverse that. The bottom line is that Detroit now has back-to-back hitters who will force opponents to try to match up against a lineup that could look like this in 2012:
[h4]Detroit's new 1-2 punch[/h4]
Where
Prince Fielder and
Miguel Cabrera rank in MLB since 2007.
| | |
HR
|
2nd
|
5th
|
RBI
|
5th
|
2nd
|
OPS
|
4th
|
2nd
|
wOBA <<
|
7th
|
2nd
|
| >> Weighted On Base Average (a stat scaled to on-base percentage, that combines a player's ability to reach base and hit for power) | | |
[th=""]
Stat
[/th][th=""]
Fielder
[/th][th=""]
Cabrera
[/th]
CF Austin Jackson (R)
RF Brennan Boesch (L)
DH/3B Cabrera (R)
1B Fielder (L)
LF Delmon Young (R)
C Alex Avila (L)
SS Jhonny Peralta (R)
2B Ryan Raburn/
Ramon Santiago
3B/DH Brandon Inge/
Don Kelly
If the left-handed hitting Boesch hits second, then managers will often call on a right-handed reliever to face Cabrera and then may need a lefty for Fielder. There will probably be more matchup relievers used against the Tigers than against any other team next season.
Detroit had one of the best offenses in the majors last season, and with Fielder essentially replacing Martinez, the Tigers' lineup figures to be even better.
8. Victor Martinez: Does he have a future with the Tigers?
For the moment, let's give Cabrera the benefit of the doubt. He's an exceptional athlete, and maybe he'll be motivated by the challenge (as
Pablo Sandoval was) and will lose 30 or 40 pounds and become a serviceable third baseman.
But if it doesn't happen, it's hard to imagine how Martinez would fit in after he comes back from his knee injury. His days as a catcher are pretty much over, and if Cabrera can't play third base, he certainly can't play left field and would have to be the DH. This might force the Tigers to unload Martinez, who is owed $26 million in the next couple of seasons.
Fielder used to
follow the team as a kid.
The Tigers are
stocking up for a title run, writes Tyler Kepner. They're paying a
king's ransom for Fielder, writes Mitch Albom. This is a
Prince of a deal, writes Bob Wojnowski.
LaRoche says he was not bothered by the
Fielder rumors. The Nationals are still
set at first base, writes Amanda Comak.
A healthy
Josh Hamilton is
worth more than Fielder, writes Gil LeBreton.
The
Seattle Mariners are now
gambling on youth, writes Larry Stone.
Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin was classy in the
aftermath of the news and doesn't hold any kind of a grudge.
From Elias: Cecil Fielder, Prince's father, led Detroit in home runs in five of his seven years with the franchise. The only father and son tandem in major league history who each led a team in home runs in a season is Bobby and
Barry Bonds, who turned that trick for the Giants. Bobby Bonds ranked first for San Francisco in homers three times in the 1970s, while Barry Bonds did so 13 times from 1993 to 2007.
[h4]Detroit's 2011 offense[/h4]
How the Tigers' offense ranked in the AL last season.
| | |
Runs
|
787
|
4th
|
Team BA
|
.277
|
3rd
|
OPS
|
.773
|
4th
|
HR
|
169
|
7th
|
[th=""]
Stat
[/th][th=""]
No.
[/th][th=""]
Rank
[/th]
The Tigers' offense was already pretty good without Fielder (see chart), though there was a hole in the lineup with the season-ending injury to Martinez.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The
San Francisco Giants worked out a
two-year deal with
Tim Lincecum. This seems to suit both sides. The Giants have always had a little reluctance to invest in the diminutive Lincecum, and Lincecum doesn't seem to know exactly how long he wants to play. This doesn't preclude the possibility that Lincecum will
remain with the Giants for the long haul, his agent says.
One spin-off of this deal: It's another reason for
Cole Hamels to fully expect he can get a five- or six-year deal for something in the range of $20 million to $24 million a year when he becomes a free agent next fall.
• The
Toronto Blue Jays signed Francisco Cordero, as Richard Griffin writes.
[h4]Francisco Cordero[/h4]
Cordero in the last three seasons on two-strike fastballs.
| | | | |
2009
|
216
|
37
|
17.1%
|
95 MPH
|
2010
|
259
|
36
|
13.9%
|
95 MPH
|
2011
|
122
|
13
|
10.7%
|
93 MPH
|
[th=""]
Season
[/th][th=""]
Pitches
[/th][th=""]
K's
[/th][th=""]
Putaway Rate
[/th][th=""]
Avg Velo
[/th]
From Mark Simon of ESPN Research: Wondering why Cordero got only a one-year, $4.5 million deal? Here's a look at the last three seasons to show the declining trend in his ability to finish hitters with his two-strike fastball (see chart).
• The Dodgers need to sign
Clayton Kershaw to a
long-term deal, writes Bill Plaschke.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Blue Jays have locked up
Brandon Morrow for
three more years, as Bob Elliott writes.
2. The
Miami Marlins are generally regarded as the
favorites for Yoenis Cespedes, whenever the bidding begins. And a week ago, the Nationals were regarded as the favorites to sign Fielder.
3.
Carlos Pena says he has
another chapter to write with the
Tampa Bay Rays.
4.
Koji Uehara turned down a deal to the Blue Jays, writes Gerry Fraley.
5. Selling the Dodgers to Frank McCourt was a
really bad idea, says a former Dodgers owner.
6. The
Philadelphia Phillies will give
Domonic Brown a
look. Bottom line: There is no room for him unless someone gets hurt or badly underperforms.
7.
Wilson Betemit got a
two-year deal. It's a little surprising, given Betemit's handful of at-bats in the postseason when he looked like he couldn't see the ball.
