- 29,279
- 11,427
dam combined weight at 1b is like 716
nice lil tag team they got over there now
nice lil tag team they got over there now
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- 9,951
- 7,147
Originally Posted by Big J 33
Originally Posted by toine2983
Originally Posted by bkmac
Thanks for the memories, Jorge Posada
.
- 9,951
- 7,147
Originally Posted by Big J 33
Originally Posted by toine2983
Originally Posted by bkmac
Thanks for the memories, Jorge Posada.
Originally Posted by Winged Wheel
Originally Posted by DeadsetAce
nine years for that pudgemaster? no thanks...this has mo vaughn written all over it
I disagree and this was exactly what we needed. Fielder is going to do just fine and his contract won't be bad for the long term either.
That and they need a leadoff hitter. I'd give this contract maybe 4 years before it gets bad. Even if he switches to DH, he'd have to produce something like 10-15 more HR's to produce the same amount of WAR. Plus, there's no opt out clause. Not even to mention what do you do in 2013 when V-Mart is healthy. He can't catch anymore and if you put any combination of those 3 in the field, the IF defense would be atrocious. Prince and Miggy have both been in the bottom 5 defensively at first base over the last 3 years and Miggy doesn't even have the range to play much first base let alone third. I don't know, this might have mistake written all over it.
Originally Posted by Winged Wheel
Originally Posted by DeadsetAce
nine years for that pudgemaster? no thanks...this has mo vaughn written all over it
I disagree and this was exactly what we needed. Fielder is going to do just fine and his contract won't be bad for the long term either.
That and they need a leadoff hitter. I'd give this contract maybe 4 years before it gets bad. Even if he switches to DH, he'd have to produce something like 10-15 more HR's to produce the same amount of WAR. Plus, there's no opt out clause. Not even to mention what do you do in 2013 when V-Mart is healthy. He can't catch anymore and if you put any combination of those 3 in the field, the IF defense would be atrocious. Prince and Miggy have both been in the bottom 5 defensively at first base over the last 3 years and Miggy doesn't even have the range to play much first base let alone third. I don't know, this might have mistake written all over it.
This kinda sums it up for my opinion.
Spoiler [+]
The Mystery Team strikes again. After months of rumors that had Prince Fielder going to Washington, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, and everywhere in between except Detroit, the Tigers decided to respond to Victor Martinez‘s knee injury in the most extreme way possible – giving Prince Fielder an enormous amount of money.
As first reported by Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports, with the details added by Jon Heyman, Fielder is set to receive $214 million over the next nine years, or just under $24 million per season. Essentially, he got the same deal as Albert Pujols, just minus one year in length. This deal ranks behind only that deal and the two Alex Rodriguez contracts as the largest investment in the history of the sport, so Fielder has essentially been paid at a level that puts him in the same company as two inner-circle Hall of Famers. No pressure or anything.
Let’s start with this deal from the Tigers perspective. As I wrote yesterday, the Tigers couldn’t afford to settle for an inferior DH replacement after losing Victor Martinez for the season with an ACL tear. With Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in their primes, the team was essentially committed to contending, but they didn’t have a championship roster around them. The Tigers were absolutely in the sweet spot of the win curve where improving the roster could have the most impact. Adding Fielder pushes them from a solid team that would be in the mix to win a bad division up to being able to plan on playing in October and potentially challenging for a World Series title. After Martinez went down, there was probably no team in baseball that needed Fielder more than Detroit.
If they were an 85-87 win team yesterday, they’re probably closer to an 89-91 win team today. The difference in expected playoff odds for an 85 win team and a 90 win team, even in a division with no obvious challenger to the throne, is enormous. So, it’s understandable that the Tigers decided to be extremely aggressive in their desire to put the best team that they possibly could on the field for the next few seasons. When you have two superstars in their primes, you want to maximize your chances of capturing a ring, and no available player gets the Tigers closer to a championship than Fielder does.
With all that said, the long term costs of putting Fielder on this roster were extremely high. No matter how much you might like Prince Fielder’s bat, there’s no getting around the reality that he’s going to be extremely overpaid during the second half of this contract, and this deal could turn into an albatross very quickly. As we noted a few months ago, the historical aging curve for heavy players shows significant drop-off at earlier ages than most players, as it’s hard for a player carrying that much mass to maintain health and flexibility as their body starts to wear down. Fielder will have to be a big time outlier if he’s going to remain a productive player into his mid-30s, and even if you’re aggressive in your estimations of future salary inflation, a $214 million contract is going to pay him at premier player rates at ages when he’ll probably be more of a part-time role player. The question isn’t if Fielder will become a hinderance to the Tigers ability to compete, but simply a matter of when.
At this price, the Tigers are paying for something in the realm of 35 wins over the next nine years. If you believe that Fielder is a true talent +5 win player and apply the standard player aging curve which knocks off half a win per year, he’d be expected to produce +27 wins over that timeframe, a performance worth about $156 million at today’s prices. As you can see, the gap is so large that there’s almost no chance that Fielder is actually worth $214 million over the next nine years. The Tigers have basically borrowed from their future to pay for the present, and this deal is going to harm their ability to contend down the line. If Fielder ages well, he may not begin to be a real liability for three or four years. That’s the window the Tigers have essentially given themselves with this contract – win a title before 2015 before the cost of this deal becomes prohibitive to building a contending team around that contract.
With Miguel Cabrera under contract for four more seasons and Justin Verlander in town for at least three more, Fielder’s addition should make them legitimate title contenders during that window of time. And, if they win a World Series during that time, it will be easy to live with the cost to the future of the franchise while throwing a parade. However, that argument can be used to justify signing any player to any sized contract, and shouldn’t be how teams operate. At some point, the cost begins to exceed any potential benefit you could reasonably expect, no matter just how desperate you are to win or how much you think a single player will help you.
Fielder will absolutely help the Tigers. He might even be enough to help them get to the World Series and perhaps take home a trophy. But, in reality, if the team had $214 million to spend this winter, they should have been in on Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson, who won’t make as much between them as what the team just guaranteed Fielder. As I wrote yesterday, the Tigers definitely needed to make an impact move, but because they got stuck in a position where there was only one impact bat left on the market, they found themselves having to vastly overpay in order to get that improvement.
For Detroit’s sake, I hope they win a title in the next three years, because the franchise’s ability to compete long term just took a serious hit. Borrowing from the future to win in the present isn’t always a bad idea, but at these prices, the Tigers should have explored options. The cost was simply too high.
As first reported by Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports, with the details added by Jon Heyman, Fielder is set to receive $214 million over the next nine years, or just under $24 million per season. Essentially, he got the same deal as Albert Pujols, just minus one year in length. This deal ranks behind only that deal and the two Alex Rodriguez contracts as the largest investment in the history of the sport, so Fielder has essentially been paid at a level that puts him in the same company as two inner-circle Hall of Famers. No pressure or anything.
Let’s start with this deal from the Tigers perspective. As I wrote yesterday, the Tigers couldn’t afford to settle for an inferior DH replacement after losing Victor Martinez for the season with an ACL tear. With Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in their primes, the team was essentially committed to contending, but they didn’t have a championship roster around them. The Tigers were absolutely in the sweet spot of the win curve where improving the roster could have the most impact. Adding Fielder pushes them from a solid team that would be in the mix to win a bad division up to being able to plan on playing in October and potentially challenging for a World Series title. After Martinez went down, there was probably no team in baseball that needed Fielder more than Detroit.
If they were an 85-87 win team yesterday, they’re probably closer to an 89-91 win team today. The difference in expected playoff odds for an 85 win team and a 90 win team, even in a division with no obvious challenger to the throne, is enormous. So, it’s understandable that the Tigers decided to be extremely aggressive in their desire to put the best team that they possibly could on the field for the next few seasons. When you have two superstars in their primes, you want to maximize your chances of capturing a ring, and no available player gets the Tigers closer to a championship than Fielder does.
With all that said, the long term costs of putting Fielder on this roster were extremely high. No matter how much you might like Prince Fielder’s bat, there’s no getting around the reality that he’s going to be extremely overpaid during the second half of this contract, and this deal could turn into an albatross very quickly. As we noted a few months ago, the historical aging curve for heavy players shows significant drop-off at earlier ages than most players, as it’s hard for a player carrying that much mass to maintain health and flexibility as their body starts to wear down. Fielder will have to be a big time outlier if he’s going to remain a productive player into his mid-30s, and even if you’re aggressive in your estimations of future salary inflation, a $214 million contract is going to pay him at premier player rates at ages when he’ll probably be more of a part-time role player. The question isn’t if Fielder will become a hinderance to the Tigers ability to compete, but simply a matter of when.
At this price, the Tigers are paying for something in the realm of 35 wins over the next nine years. If you believe that Fielder is a true talent +5 win player and apply the standard player aging curve which knocks off half a win per year, he’d be expected to produce +27 wins over that timeframe, a performance worth about $156 million at today’s prices. As you can see, the gap is so large that there’s almost no chance that Fielder is actually worth $214 million over the next nine years. The Tigers have basically borrowed from their future to pay for the present, and this deal is going to harm their ability to contend down the line. If Fielder ages well, he may not begin to be a real liability for three or four years. That’s the window the Tigers have essentially given themselves with this contract – win a title before 2015 before the cost of this deal becomes prohibitive to building a contending team around that contract.
With Miguel Cabrera under contract for four more seasons and Justin Verlander in town for at least three more, Fielder’s addition should make them legitimate title contenders during that window of time. And, if they win a World Series during that time, it will be easy to live with the cost to the future of the franchise while throwing a parade. However, that argument can be used to justify signing any player to any sized contract, and shouldn’t be how teams operate. At some point, the cost begins to exceed any potential benefit you could reasonably expect, no matter just how desperate you are to win or how much you think a single player will help you.
Fielder will absolutely help the Tigers. He might even be enough to help them get to the World Series and perhaps take home a trophy. But, in reality, if the team had $214 million to spend this winter, they should have been in on Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson, who won’t make as much between them as what the team just guaranteed Fielder. As I wrote yesterday, the Tigers definitely needed to make an impact move, but because they got stuck in a position where there was only one impact bat left on the market, they found themselves having to vastly overpay in order to get that improvement.
For Detroit’s sake, I hope they win a title in the next three years, because the franchise’s ability to compete long term just took a serious hit. Borrowing from the future to win in the present isn’t always a bad idea, but at these prices, the Tigers should have explored options. The cost was simply too high.
This kinda sums it up for my opinion.
Spoiler [+]
The Mystery Team strikes again. After months of rumors that had Prince Fielder going to Washington, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, and everywhere in between except Detroit, the Tigers decided to respond to Victor Martinez‘s knee injury in the most extreme way possible – giving Prince Fielder an enormous amount of money.
As first reported by Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports, with the details added by Jon Heyman, Fielder is set to receive $214 million over the next nine years, or just under $24 million per season. Essentially, he got the same deal as Albert Pujols, just minus one year in length. This deal ranks behind only that deal and the two Alex Rodriguez contracts as the largest investment in the history of the sport, so Fielder has essentially been paid at a level that puts him in the same company as two inner-circle Hall of Famers. No pressure or anything.
Let’s start with this deal from the Tigers perspective. As I wrote yesterday, the Tigers couldn’t afford to settle for an inferior DH replacement after losing Victor Martinez for the season with an ACL tear. With Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in their primes, the team was essentially committed to contending, but they didn’t have a championship roster around them. The Tigers were absolutely in the sweet spot of the win curve where improving the roster could have the most impact. Adding Fielder pushes them from a solid team that would be in the mix to win a bad division up to being able to plan on playing in October and potentially challenging for a World Series title. After Martinez went down, there was probably no team in baseball that needed Fielder more than Detroit.
If they were an 85-87 win team yesterday, they’re probably closer to an 89-91 win team today. The difference in expected playoff odds for an 85 win team and a 90 win team, even in a division with no obvious challenger to the throne, is enormous. So, it’s understandable that the Tigers decided to be extremely aggressive in their desire to put the best team that they possibly could on the field for the next few seasons. When you have two superstars in their primes, you want to maximize your chances of capturing a ring, and no available player gets the Tigers closer to a championship than Fielder does.
With all that said, the long term costs of putting Fielder on this roster were extremely high. No matter how much you might like Prince Fielder’s bat, there’s no getting around the reality that he’s going to be extremely overpaid during the second half of this contract, and this deal could turn into an albatross very quickly. As we noted a few months ago, the historical aging curve for heavy players shows significant drop-off at earlier ages than most players, as it’s hard for a player carrying that much mass to maintain health and flexibility as their body starts to wear down. Fielder will have to be a big time outlier if he’s going to remain a productive player into his mid-30s, and even if you’re aggressive in your estimations of future salary inflation, a $214 million contract is going to pay him at premier player rates at ages when he’ll probably be more of a part-time role player. The question isn’t if Fielder will become a hinderance to the Tigers ability to compete, but simply a matter of when.
At this price, the Tigers are paying for something in the realm of 35 wins over the next nine years. If you believe that Fielder is a true talent +5 win player and apply the standard player aging curve which knocks off half a win per year, he’d be expected to produce +27 wins over that timeframe, a performance worth about $156 million at today’s prices. As you can see, the gap is so large that there’s almost no chance that Fielder is actually worth $214 million over the next nine years. The Tigers have basically borrowed from their future to pay for the present, and this deal is going to harm their ability to contend down the line. If Fielder ages well, he may not begin to be a real liability for three or four years. That’s the window the Tigers have essentially given themselves with this contract – win a title before 2015 before the cost of this deal becomes prohibitive to building a contending team around that contract.
With Miguel Cabrera under contract for four more seasons and Justin Verlander in town for at least three more, Fielder’s addition should make them legitimate title contenders during that window of time. And, if they win a World Series during that time, it will be easy to live with the cost to the future of the franchise while throwing a parade. However, that argument can be used to justify signing any player to any sized contract, and shouldn’t be how teams operate. At some point, the cost begins to exceed any potential benefit you could reasonably expect, no matter just how desperate you are to win or how much you think a single player will help you.
Fielder will absolutely help the Tigers. He might even be enough to help them get to the World Series and perhaps take home a trophy. But, in reality, if the team had $214 million to spend this winter, they should have been in on Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson, who won’t make as much between them as what the team just guaranteed Fielder. As I wrote yesterday, the Tigers definitely needed to make an impact move, but because they got stuck in a position where there was only one impact bat left on the market, they found themselves having to vastly overpay in order to get that improvement.
For Detroit’s sake, I hope they win a title in the next three years, because the franchise’s ability to compete long term just took a serious hit. Borrowing from the future to win in the present isn’t always a bad idea, but at these prices, the Tigers should have explored options. The cost was simply too high.
As first reported by Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports, with the details added by Jon Heyman, Fielder is set to receive $214 million over the next nine years, or just under $24 million per season. Essentially, he got the same deal as Albert Pujols, just minus one year in length. This deal ranks behind only that deal and the two Alex Rodriguez contracts as the largest investment in the history of the sport, so Fielder has essentially been paid at a level that puts him in the same company as two inner-circle Hall of Famers. No pressure or anything.
Let’s start with this deal from the Tigers perspective. As I wrote yesterday, the Tigers couldn’t afford to settle for an inferior DH replacement after losing Victor Martinez for the season with an ACL tear. With Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in their primes, the team was essentially committed to contending, but they didn’t have a championship roster around them. The Tigers were absolutely in the sweet spot of the win curve where improving the roster could have the most impact. Adding Fielder pushes them from a solid team that would be in the mix to win a bad division up to being able to plan on playing in October and potentially challenging for a World Series title. After Martinez went down, there was probably no team in baseball that needed Fielder more than Detroit.
If they were an 85-87 win team yesterday, they’re probably closer to an 89-91 win team today. The difference in expected playoff odds for an 85 win team and a 90 win team, even in a division with no obvious challenger to the throne, is enormous. So, it’s understandable that the Tigers decided to be extremely aggressive in their desire to put the best team that they possibly could on the field for the next few seasons. When you have two superstars in their primes, you want to maximize your chances of capturing a ring, and no available player gets the Tigers closer to a championship than Fielder does.
With all that said, the long term costs of putting Fielder on this roster were extremely high. No matter how much you might like Prince Fielder’s bat, there’s no getting around the reality that he’s going to be extremely overpaid during the second half of this contract, and this deal could turn into an albatross very quickly. As we noted a few months ago, the historical aging curve for heavy players shows significant drop-off at earlier ages than most players, as it’s hard for a player carrying that much mass to maintain health and flexibility as their body starts to wear down. Fielder will have to be a big time outlier if he’s going to remain a productive player into his mid-30s, and even if you’re aggressive in your estimations of future salary inflation, a $214 million contract is going to pay him at premier player rates at ages when he’ll probably be more of a part-time role player. The question isn’t if Fielder will become a hinderance to the Tigers ability to compete, but simply a matter of when.
At this price, the Tigers are paying for something in the realm of 35 wins over the next nine years. If you believe that Fielder is a true talent +5 win player and apply the standard player aging curve which knocks off half a win per year, he’d be expected to produce +27 wins over that timeframe, a performance worth about $156 million at today’s prices. As you can see, the gap is so large that there’s almost no chance that Fielder is actually worth $214 million over the next nine years. The Tigers have basically borrowed from their future to pay for the present, and this deal is going to harm their ability to contend down the line. If Fielder ages well, he may not begin to be a real liability for three or four years. That’s the window the Tigers have essentially given themselves with this contract – win a title before 2015 before the cost of this deal becomes prohibitive to building a contending team around that contract.
With Miguel Cabrera under contract for four more seasons and Justin Verlander in town for at least three more, Fielder’s addition should make them legitimate title contenders during that window of time. And, if they win a World Series during that time, it will be easy to live with the cost to the future of the franchise while throwing a parade. However, that argument can be used to justify signing any player to any sized contract, and shouldn’t be how teams operate. At some point, the cost begins to exceed any potential benefit you could reasonably expect, no matter just how desperate you are to win or how much you think a single player will help you.
Fielder will absolutely help the Tigers. He might even be enough to help them get to the World Series and perhaps take home a trophy. But, in reality, if the team had $214 million to spend this winter, they should have been in on Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson, who won’t make as much between them as what the team just guaranteed Fielder. As I wrote yesterday, the Tigers definitely needed to make an impact move, but because they got stuck in a position where there was only one impact bat left on the market, they found themselves having to vastly overpay in order to get that improvement.
For Detroit’s sake, I hope they win a title in the next three years, because the franchise’s ability to compete long term just took a serious hit. Borrowing from the future to win in the present isn’t always a bad idea, but at these prices, the Tigers should have explored options. The cost was simply too high.
T0INE
formerly toine2983
- 67,259
- 73,703
Good for him.
Interested in what the Tigers do with their lineup once Martinez gets back.
Is he official done for the season with torn ACL?
T0INE
formerly toine2983
- 67,259
- 73,703
Good for him.
Interested in what the Tigers do with their lineup once Martinez gets back.
Is he official done for the season with torn ACL?
- 6,136
- 981
Lots of hate in here.
- 6,136
- 981
Lots of hate in here.
- 9,908
- 839
Prince out of the NL.
I can't even imagine what kind of contract Votto is going to get in a couple years.
I can't even imagine what kind of contract Votto is going to get in a couple years.
- 9,908
- 839
Prince out of the NL.
I can't even imagine what kind of contract Votto is going to get in a couple years.
I can't even imagine what kind of contract Votto is going to get in a couple years.
darthska
Staff member
- 46,928
- 31,497
Pujols to my Angels
Fielder to the Tigers
winner: the NL Central
Fielder to the Tigers
winner: the NL Central
darthska
Staff member
- 46,928
- 31,497
Pujols to my Angels
Fielder to the Tigers
winner: the NL Central
Fielder to the Tigers
winner: the NL Central
Keith Law's take.
Spoiler [+]
In a move no one really saw coming, Prince Fielder has reportedly agreed to a nine-year, $214 million deal with the Detroit Tigers.
Everything that held true for the Albert Pujols contract -- great for the team in the short term, very risky in the long term -- holds true for Fielder and the Tigers as well. He'll add a little less value in the next year or two than Pujols will to the Los Angeles Angels, but I like Fielder's chance to hold value deeper into his contract because, at 27, he's five years younger than Pujols is. That said, Fielder's still a corner position player with no speed and no defensive value, a player profile that ages very poorly, and he is going to have to get his weight under control if he wants to be a productive player in the back half of this deal, even though there's no financial incentive for him to do so.
Prince's production
ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski used his ZiPS projection system to forecast Prince Fielder's production in Detroit over the life of his nine-year deal.
YR BA OBP SLG HR RBI
'12 .275 .394 .504 33 97
'13 .273 .394 .504 32 96
'14 .272 .390 .496 31 94
'15 .266 .383 .479 29 88
'16 .262 .374 .462 26 82
'17 .259 .369 .440 22 74
'18 .255 .361 .424 20 69
'19 .253 .351 .415 18 63
'20 .248 .338 .388 13 50
The Tigers recently lost Victor Martinez for the season with a torn ACL, and that injury cost them 3-to-4 wins of value, a range that assumes he would have been the regular DH and occasional catcher without missing any significant time during the season. But adding Fielder more than makes up for what they lost in Martinez' bat, giving them probably an 800-to-825 run offense that should be among the three best in the league when you consider their home ballpark. I think they would have won the weakened American League Central without Fielder, but with him, their odds have increased. He also helps make up for the fact that the Tigers' farm system has just one impact hitting prospect, Nick Castellanos, a third baseman -- which is still an area of need for the big club -- who is three years away from the majors.
The Tigers' problem in the short term is where to play everyone. Cabrera is an indifferent first baseman, but is probably a better option there than Fielder. Delmon Young shouldn't be allowed to play the outfield, and even if he was, the Tigers might prefer to play Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch in the corners, since Young walks about twice a month. They could put Raburn at second and Young in left, Cabrera at third and just punt defense entirely, hoping to bludgeon opponents into submission, although I wouldn't recommend it; playing Fielder at first and Cabrera at third would be defensive self-immolation. The best solution might be to have Fielder and Cabrera share time at first base to keep both bats in the lineup as often as possible, since the risk of knee problems for, um, "husky" players is probably tied not just to age but to time standing at a position.
In the long term, of course, this contract won't end any better than Pujols'. It's hard to envision Prince Fielder still producing 5 wins a year of value at age 36, although I can picture that more easily than I can see Pujols producing that much at age 42. But the Tigers are coming off a division title they're likely to repeat in 2012, and there was no better option on the market to help keep them the favorites in this year or next, and to increase (however slightly) their chances of advancing to the World Series. It's the type of moral-hazard-laced decision MLB general managers make all the time: If the Tigers' current front office is still in charge as Fielder's contract enters its final years, then the team has probably won a championship or two by that point, justifying the deal; if they don't win, then it'll be someone else's mess to clean up. And by years eight and nine, a mess it will almost certainly be. (Also worth noting that owner Mike Illitch is 82 years old and this move is a sign that he wants to win sooner rather than later.)
I do wonder what this indicates about the Texas Rangers' long-term plans at first base, since they don't appear to have been in that hard on Fielder or Pujols. Mitch Moreland can't be the long-term answer at first -- he's probably a platoon bat at best -- and they don't have a good first base prospect in their upper levels, although they do have a top third base prospect, Mike Olt, coming up behind Adrian Beltre. It's not necessary for them to upgrade at first to contend in the AL West, but it seemed like an obvious area for them to target heading into the off-season, and unless Moreland has an unexpected breakout and starts to hit left-handed pitching, it's probably their biggest untapped opportunity to add a few wins.
Everything that held true for the Albert Pujols contract -- great for the team in the short term, very risky in the long term -- holds true for Fielder and the Tigers as well. He'll add a little less value in the next year or two than Pujols will to the Los Angeles Angels, but I like Fielder's chance to hold value deeper into his contract because, at 27, he's five years younger than Pujols is. That said, Fielder's still a corner position player with no speed and no defensive value, a player profile that ages very poorly, and he is going to have to get his weight under control if he wants to be a productive player in the back half of this deal, even though there's no financial incentive for him to do so.
Prince's production
ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski used his ZiPS projection system to forecast Prince Fielder's production in Detroit over the life of his nine-year deal.
YR BA OBP SLG HR RBI
'12 .275 .394 .504 33 97
'13 .273 .394 .504 32 96
'14 .272 .390 .496 31 94
'15 .266 .383 .479 29 88
'16 .262 .374 .462 26 82
'17 .259 .369 .440 22 74
'18 .255 .361 .424 20 69
'19 .253 .351 .415 18 63
'20 .248 .338 .388 13 50
The Tigers recently lost Victor Martinez for the season with a torn ACL, and that injury cost them 3-to-4 wins of value, a range that assumes he would have been the regular DH and occasional catcher without missing any significant time during the season. But adding Fielder more than makes up for what they lost in Martinez' bat, giving them probably an 800-to-825 run offense that should be among the three best in the league when you consider their home ballpark. I think they would have won the weakened American League Central without Fielder, but with him, their odds have increased. He also helps make up for the fact that the Tigers' farm system has just one impact hitting prospect, Nick Castellanos, a third baseman -- which is still an area of need for the big club -- who is three years away from the majors.
The Tigers' problem in the short term is where to play everyone. Cabrera is an indifferent first baseman, but is probably a better option there than Fielder. Delmon Young shouldn't be allowed to play the outfield, and even if he was, the Tigers might prefer to play Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch in the corners, since Young walks about twice a month. They could put Raburn at second and Young in left, Cabrera at third and just punt defense entirely, hoping to bludgeon opponents into submission, although I wouldn't recommend it; playing Fielder at first and Cabrera at third would be defensive self-immolation. The best solution might be to have Fielder and Cabrera share time at first base to keep both bats in the lineup as often as possible, since the risk of knee problems for, um, "husky" players is probably tied not just to age but to time standing at a position.
In the long term, of course, this contract won't end any better than Pujols'. It's hard to envision Prince Fielder still producing 5 wins a year of value at age 36, although I can picture that more easily than I can see Pujols producing that much at age 42. But the Tigers are coming off a division title they're likely to repeat in 2012, and there was no better option on the market to help keep them the favorites in this year or next, and to increase (however slightly) their chances of advancing to the World Series. It's the type of moral-hazard-laced decision MLB general managers make all the time: If the Tigers' current front office is still in charge as Fielder's contract enters its final years, then the team has probably won a championship or two by that point, justifying the deal; if they don't win, then it'll be someone else's mess to clean up. And by years eight and nine, a mess it will almost certainly be. (Also worth noting that owner Mike Illitch is 82 years old and this move is a sign that he wants to win sooner rather than later.)
I do wonder what this indicates about the Texas Rangers' long-term plans at first base, since they don't appear to have been in that hard on Fielder or Pujols. Mitch Moreland can't be the long-term answer at first -- he's probably a platoon bat at best -- and they don't have a good first base prospect in their upper levels, although they do have a top third base prospect, Mike Olt, coming up behind Adrian Beltre. It's not necessary for them to upgrade at first to contend in the AL West, but it seemed like an obvious area for them to target heading into the off-season, and unless Moreland has an unexpected breakout and starts to hit left-handed pitching, it's probably their biggest untapped opportunity to add a few wins.
Keith Law's take.
Spoiler [+]
In a move no one really saw coming, Prince Fielder has reportedly agreed to a nine-year, $214 million deal with the Detroit Tigers.
Everything that held true for the Albert Pujols contract -- great for the team in the short term, very risky in the long term -- holds true for Fielder and the Tigers as well. He'll add a little less value in the next year or two than Pujols will to the Los Angeles Angels, but I like Fielder's chance to hold value deeper into his contract because, at 27, he's five years younger than Pujols is. That said, Fielder's still a corner position player with no speed and no defensive value, a player profile that ages very poorly, and he is going to have to get his weight under control if he wants to be a productive player in the back half of this deal, even though there's no financial incentive for him to do so.
Prince's production
ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski used his ZiPS projection system to forecast Prince Fielder's production in Detroit over the life of his nine-year deal.
YR BA OBP SLG HR RBI
'12 .275 .394 .504 33 97
'13 .273 .394 .504 32 96
'14 .272 .390 .496 31 94
'15 .266 .383 .479 29 88
'16 .262 .374 .462 26 82
'17 .259 .369 .440 22 74
'18 .255 .361 .424 20 69
'19 .253 .351 .415 18 63
'20 .248 .338 .388 13 50
The Tigers recently lost Victor Martinez for the season with a torn ACL, and that injury cost them 3-to-4 wins of value, a range that assumes he would have been the regular DH and occasional catcher without missing any significant time during the season. But adding Fielder more than makes up for what they lost in Martinez' bat, giving them probably an 800-to-825 run offense that should be among the three best in the league when you consider their home ballpark. I think they would have won the weakened American League Central without Fielder, but with him, their odds have increased. He also helps make up for the fact that the Tigers' farm system has just one impact hitting prospect, Nick Castellanos, a third baseman -- which is still an area of need for the big club -- who is three years away from the majors.
The Tigers' problem in the short term is where to play everyone. Cabrera is an indifferent first baseman, but is probably a better option there than Fielder. Delmon Young shouldn't be allowed to play the outfield, and even if he was, the Tigers might prefer to play Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch in the corners, since Young walks about twice a month. They could put Raburn at second and Young in left, Cabrera at third and just punt defense entirely, hoping to bludgeon opponents into submission, although I wouldn't recommend it; playing Fielder at first and Cabrera at third would be defensive self-immolation. The best solution might be to have Fielder and Cabrera share time at first base to keep both bats in the lineup as often as possible, since the risk of knee problems for, um, "husky" players is probably tied not just to age but to time standing at a position.
In the long term, of course, this contract won't end any better than Pujols'. It's hard to envision Prince Fielder still producing 5 wins a year of value at age 36, although I can picture that more easily than I can see Pujols producing that much at age 42. But the Tigers are coming off a division title they're likely to repeat in 2012, and there was no better option on the market to help keep them the favorites in this year or next, and to increase (however slightly) their chances of advancing to the World Series. It's the type of moral-hazard-laced decision MLB general managers make all the time: If the Tigers' current front office is still in charge as Fielder's contract enters its final years, then the team has probably won a championship or two by that point, justifying the deal; if they don't win, then it'll be someone else's mess to clean up. And by years eight and nine, a mess it will almost certainly be. (Also worth noting that owner Mike Illitch is 82 years old and this move is a sign that he wants to win sooner rather than later.)
I do wonder what this indicates about the Texas Rangers' long-term plans at first base, since they don't appear to have been in that hard on Fielder or Pujols. Mitch Moreland can't be the long-term answer at first -- he's probably a platoon bat at best -- and they don't have a good first base prospect in their upper levels, although they do have a top third base prospect, Mike Olt, coming up behind Adrian Beltre. It's not necessary for them to upgrade at first to contend in the AL West, but it seemed like an obvious area for them to target heading into the off-season, and unless Moreland has an unexpected breakout and starts to hit left-handed pitching, it's probably their biggest untapped opportunity to add a few wins.
Everything that held true for the Albert Pujols contract -- great for the team in the short term, very risky in the long term -- holds true for Fielder and the Tigers as well. He'll add a little less value in the next year or two than Pujols will to the Los Angeles Angels, but I like Fielder's chance to hold value deeper into his contract because, at 27, he's five years younger than Pujols is. That said, Fielder's still a corner position player with no speed and no defensive value, a player profile that ages very poorly, and he is going to have to get his weight under control if he wants to be a productive player in the back half of this deal, even though there's no financial incentive for him to do so.
Prince's production
ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski used his ZiPS projection system to forecast Prince Fielder's production in Detroit over the life of his nine-year deal.
YR BA OBP SLG HR RBI
'12 .275 .394 .504 33 97
'13 .273 .394 .504 32 96
'14 .272 .390 .496 31 94
'15 .266 .383 .479 29 88
'16 .262 .374 .462 26 82
'17 .259 .369 .440 22 74
'18 .255 .361 .424 20 69
'19 .253 .351 .415 18 63
'20 .248 .338 .388 13 50
The Tigers recently lost Victor Martinez for the season with a torn ACL, and that injury cost them 3-to-4 wins of value, a range that assumes he would have been the regular DH and occasional catcher without missing any significant time during the season. But adding Fielder more than makes up for what they lost in Martinez' bat, giving them probably an 800-to-825 run offense that should be among the three best in the league when you consider their home ballpark. I think they would have won the weakened American League Central without Fielder, but with him, their odds have increased. He also helps make up for the fact that the Tigers' farm system has just one impact hitting prospect, Nick Castellanos, a third baseman -- which is still an area of need for the big club -- who is three years away from the majors.
The Tigers' problem in the short term is where to play everyone. Cabrera is an indifferent first baseman, but is probably a better option there than Fielder. Delmon Young shouldn't be allowed to play the outfield, and even if he was, the Tigers might prefer to play Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch in the corners, since Young walks about twice a month. They could put Raburn at second and Young in left, Cabrera at third and just punt defense entirely, hoping to bludgeon opponents into submission, although I wouldn't recommend it; playing Fielder at first and Cabrera at third would be defensive self-immolation. The best solution might be to have Fielder and Cabrera share time at first base to keep both bats in the lineup as often as possible, since the risk of knee problems for, um, "husky" players is probably tied not just to age but to time standing at a position.
In the long term, of course, this contract won't end any better than Pujols'. It's hard to envision Prince Fielder still producing 5 wins a year of value at age 36, although I can picture that more easily than I can see Pujols producing that much at age 42. But the Tigers are coming off a division title they're likely to repeat in 2012, and there was no better option on the market to help keep them the favorites in this year or next, and to increase (however slightly) their chances of advancing to the World Series. It's the type of moral-hazard-laced decision MLB general managers make all the time: If the Tigers' current front office is still in charge as Fielder's contract enters its final years, then the team has probably won a championship or two by that point, justifying the deal; if they don't win, then it'll be someone else's mess to clean up. And by years eight and nine, a mess it will almost certainly be. (Also worth noting that owner Mike Illitch is 82 years old and this move is a sign that he wants to win sooner rather than later.)
I do wonder what this indicates about the Texas Rangers' long-term plans at first base, since they don't appear to have been in that hard on Fielder or Pujols. Mitch Moreland can't be the long-term answer at first -- he's probably a platoon bat at best -- and they don't have a good first base prospect in their upper levels, although they do have a top third base prospect, Mike Olt, coming up behind Adrian Beltre. It's not necessary for them to upgrade at first to contend in the AL West, but it seemed like an obvious area for them to target heading into the off-season, and unless Moreland has an unexpected breakout and starts to hit left-handed pitching, it's probably their biggest untapped opportunity to add a few wins.
- 8,139
- 88
If Matt Garza isn't in a Tigers uniform in 2012 this signing is absurd.
- 8,139
- 88
If Matt Garza isn't in a Tigers uniform in 2012 this signing is absurd.
- 2,343
- 28
I was expecting backlash from opposing fans once the news broke, but it's always like that. I'm looking forward to seeing Fielder @ the park this season.
- 2,343
- 28
I was expecting backlash from opposing fans once the news broke, but it's always like that. I'm looking forward to seeing Fielder @ the park this season.
- 1,917
- 10
way too much money for Prince imo who knows how much weight he is going to gain.
Tigers should have just forked up more money and signed Pujols if they can spend over 200 million
Tigers should have just forked up more money and signed Pujols if they can spend over 200 million
- 1,917
- 10
way too much money for Prince imo who knows how much weight he is going to gain.
Tigers should have just forked up more money and signed Pujols if they can spend over 200 million
Tigers should have just forked up more money and signed Pujols if they can spend over 200 million
- Status
