2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Ranking the best farm systems in baseball.

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In advance of the top 100 prospects list, I've ranked the 30 MLB teams' farm systems based solely on the players currently in the organization who have not yet lost their major league rookie eligibility. Thus, Brett Lawrie doesn't count for the Toronto Blue Jays, but Mike Trout does still count for the Los Angeles Angels.



Past production of players doesn't factor into this. It ain't where you're from; it's where you're at.




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1. San Diego Padres



Without Anthony Rizzo, they no longer have a top-25 prospect in their system, but in terms of total future value of players likely to play significant roles in the big leagues, they're ahead of everyone else. Some of these players, especially from the 2011 draft, will develop into stars. But there are so many prospects here with high floors, players who would be top-10 or top-five in other systems but are 11-20 here (such as Robbie Erlin or Edinson Rincon), that they are well-positioned to compete even with modest major league payrolls during the next five to six years. Fans who were upset at the sudden departures of GM Jed Hoyer and assistant GM Jason McLeod for the Cubs should find solace in the fact that the prospects they helped bring into the system (along with many other scouts and execs, including Chris Gwynn, now with Seattle, and Jaron Madison and Randy Smith, still in San Diego) remain in place.




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2. Tampa Bay Rays



If you favor ceiling over probability, you could make a strong argument for having the Rays ahead of the Padres, based on the fact that this system could quite easily produce six to eight players who end up as grade-60 players or better in the majors. After that first tier, however, there's a lot less probability here than there was a year or two ago, and several executives from other clubs pointed out that the Rays have a gap in their prospect pipeline coming up that will be filled only if some of their 2011 draft picks move faster than anticipated.




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3. Toronto Blue Jays



One of the many reasons criticism of Rogers Communications, the owner of the Blue Jays, for being stingy with free agents is so ignorant is that the club has spent aggressively in the amateur markets during the past three years, grabbing high-ceiling high school players and Latin American prospects by stockpiling picks and paying whatever it took to sign those players. They are the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter.




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4. St. Louis Cardinals



They've drafted very well in the past few years, which has to be heartening to Astros fans, as Houston just hired Jeff Luhnow, who oversaw the Cards' recent drafts, as GM. St. Louis also has done an excellent job of developing the players it's drafted. I really like how the Cards are set up to contend continuously during the next five years.




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5. Kansas City Royals


Despite some major losses via promotion (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy) and injury (John Lamb), the system remains extremely deep and still has two high-ceiling prospects at the top, Bubba Starling and Wil Myers.




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6. Arizona Diamondbacks


Those two picks in the top 10 in June certainly helped, but the Diamondbacks also have added a few strong arms through trades and are seeing progress from their 2008 draft crop.




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7. Texas Rangers



The Rangers have ranked highly the past few years -- including No. 1 once -- because of depth and ceiling, but they're now more about the latter than the former. (Note that I don't consider Yu Darvish or any player with Nippon Professional Baseball experience a "prospect" for the purpose of this ranking or the top 100.)




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8. Pittsburgh Pirates


The Pirates' top tier of prospects is very strong, but there's surprisingly little depth given how high they've drafted and how much they've spent on amateur talent.




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9. Oakland Athletics



This was a bottom-10 system, maybe bottom-five, when the offseason began, but the A's restocked with the trades of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey. They're still pitching-heavy for a major league club that has struggled to find bats.




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10. New York Yankees



I might be jumping the gun here, but I see a lot of star potential on their bottom few affiliates, including new acquisition Jose Campos from Seattle, to go with the two power arms from their Scranton club (Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances). The flaw in the system is the lack of near-in talent, especially position players, who could either help the big club soon or provide more fodder for trades.




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11. Seattle Mariners


What I said about the Pirates applies with the Mariners as well: It's a great front five -- led by 2011 top pick Danny Hultzen and the recently acquired Jesus Montero -- but the gap between No. 5 and No. 10 in their system is huge.




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12. Los Angeles Dodgers


If pitching wins championships, the Dodgers are in pretty good shape going forward, as their system is loaded with power arms but is relatively light on position players.




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13. Colorado Rockies



This is an underrated system, maybe even here by me. I like systems in which the prospects in the No. 8-12 range are just as interesting (if not as high-upside or high-probability) as the prospects in the No. 1-4 range, and the Rockies' lack of a complex-league team can make some of their youngest prospects look less advanced than they are when they jump right to the Pioneer League.




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14. Minnesota Twins


I pick on these guys for taking low-ceiling college arms with great control, but they have quietly mixed in some interesting high school bats and added a few high-impact Latin American prospects.




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15. Los Angeles Angels


There's only one real sure thing in the system (Mike Trout), but the Angels have a number of guys who are one major adjustment away from becoming impact prospects.




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16. Atlanta Braves



They have reaped as little from the draft the past two years as anyone, taking low-ceiling college guys with early picks, staying at or under MLB's bonus recommendations and having less luck on the international market. It's telling that the major question on every position-player prospect in their top 10 is whether he'll hit.




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17. Baltimore Orioles


I see two likely superstars, one more potential superstar with lower probability … and after about seven or eight names, it goes off a cliff.




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18. Boston Red Sox



This system is terribly thin up top given the money the Red Sox have spent in the past few years on amateur players. I do see a large group of prospects from low Class A and below that should produce a couple of breakout prospects in 2012, including Brandon Jacobs, Garin Cecchini, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes and Sean Coyle.




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19. Cincinnati Reds



I would have ranked the Reds several spots higher before the Mat Latos trade, probably top 10. Outside of Devin Mesoraco, every guy with high ceiling in this system played in low Class A or below in 2011, and they're all quite high risk to go with the high reward.




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20. Chicago Cubs


An unfairly maligned system, in my opinion -- not a great system, but not a disastrous one. And I say that as someone who's relatively bearish on some of the Cubs' more famous prospects.




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21. Washington Nationals


This was potentially a top-10 system before the Gio Gonzalez trade, no worse than top 15. But after dealing A.J. Cole, Brad Peacock and Derek Norris -- probably three of the Nats' top 10 guys before the Gio swap -- this system lacks depth.




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22. New York Mets


It's actually getting better here, but rebuilding a system takes years, and the Mets have really just begun to inject higher-upside talent into the system.




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23. Milwaukee Brewers


A strong 2011 draft class with a few breakout performers from within the system gets them out of the bottom spot. The Brewers are in better position to reload the parent club after their 2012 free agents leave next winter.




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24. Detroit Tigers


The Tigers have less depth than the Phillies (ranked below here) but have two potential stars (Nick Castellanos and Jacob Turner) with pretty good probability up top.




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25. Philadelphia Phillies



Philly has a ton of athleticism at the lower levels, but the upper levels were wiped out by trades the past few years. New farm director Joe Jordan, the Orioles' former scouting director, has a ton of raw material to work with but no finished or even nearly finished products.




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26. San Francisco Giants



The Giants don't go much over MLB's recommended draft bonuses, never seem to acquire any prospects in trades and haven't had success on the international front yet. Their amateur staff has done a great job finding value in later rounds without going over budget, including Brandon Belt and Heath Hembree.




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27. Houston Astros


The Astros might have been last if they hadn't traded Hunter Pence or Michael Bourn in July. Even though neither haul was that great, the prospects represented a major infusion into a barren system.




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28. Miami Marlins



They have one top-100 guy and only two others who would merit consideration in the next 50 or so. The system has produced a lot of big league talent in the past few years, including one star in Mike Stanton and another future star in Logan Morrison, that doesn't count here.




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29. Cleveland Indians


Trades and promotions have gutted this system, which now has very little above low Class A. One of the Indians' better drafts in years last June should help.




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30. Chicago White Sox



And they're not particularly close to No. 29, either. When you don't spend money in the draft, you're not going to fare well in anyone's organizational rankings. The new collective bargaining agreement, which clamps down on teams' ability to acquire premium talent in the draft through higher bonuses, was the result of a long-standing effort by White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, who wanted to force other teams to play by his rules.

 

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2012 Philadelphia Phillies projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Jim Thome		260	65	14	0	16	46	43	47	84	1	0	0.25	0.367	0.488	0.855	0.37
Ryan Howard		290	74	15	1	17	42	44	37	89	4	1	0.255	0.347	0.49	0.837	0.358
Hunter Pence		595	173	34	4	22	90	102	52	115	1	10	0.291	0.349	0.472	0.821	0.356
Shane Victorino		545	146	28	14	16	83	71	55	68	6	22	0.268	0.342	0.459	0.8	0.354
Chase Utley		475	123	24	5	16	75	71	57	67	18	15	0.259	0.36	0.432	0.792	0.353
John Mayberry		480	125	30	2	22	65	70	47	101	4	11	0.26	0.331	0.469	0.8	0.347
Domonic Brown		270	73	15	1	8	37	35	38	53	0	7	0.27	0.36	0.422	0.783	0.346
Carlos Ruiz		395	107	24	0	7	54	47	51	50	8	1	0.271	0.366	0.385	0.75	0.329
Laynce Nix		250	64	13	1	11	31	35	19	64	1	1	0.256	0.311	0.448	0.759	0.327
Jimmy Rollins		575	148	25	3	15	89	52	58	59	3	30	0.257	0.329	0.39	0.718	0.324
Ty Wigginton		340	86	17	1	12	42	44	30	69	4	3	0.253	0.321	0.415	0.736	0.321
Placido Polanco		490	141	19	1	5	60	56	37	45	5	3	0.288	0.344	0.361	0.705	0.317
Michael Martinez		150	39	4	1	2	17	16	13	25	0	2	0.26	0.319	0.34	0.659	0.299
Brian Schneider		170	40	6	0	4	20	18	19	39	1	0	0.235	0.316	0.341	0.657	0.293

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Jonathan Papelbon	3	3	2.1			35	60	48	14	4	76	14	1.03	11.4	2.1	2.21
Roy Halladay	22	6	2.41			0	220	200	59	14	201	31	1.05	8.22	1.27	2.57
Cliff Lee	20	8	2.58			0	220	196	63	17	209	35	1.05	8.55	1.43	2.72
Cole Hamels	15	8	3.15			0	200	168	70	20	184	46	1.07	8.28	2.07	3.31
Vance Worley	12	8	3.5			0	175	153	68	13	159	61	1.22	8.18	3.14	3.34
Antonio Bastardo	3	3	3.3			10	60	35	22	6	73	27	1.03	10.95	4.05	3.35
Jose Contreras	2	2	4.05			0	40	39	18	3	35	15	1.35	7.88	3.38	3.58
Chad Qualls	3	3	4.02			0	65	70	29	6	44	18	1.35	6.09	2.49	3.8
Joe Blanton	8	6	4.02			0	130	150	58	18	102	34	1.42	7.06	2.35	4.16
Michael Stutes	3	3	4.2			0	60	47	28	7	56	27	1.23	8.4	4.05	4.18
Joe Savery	1	1	4.11			0	35	35	16	4	26	12	1.34	6.69	3.09	4.19
Dontrelle Willis	8	9	4.5			0	120	126	60	10	88	74	1.67	6.6	5.55	4.67
Kyle Kendrick	8	8	4.28			0	120	124	57	16	59	33	1.31	4.43	2.48	4.81
David Herndon	3	3	4.05			0	60	62	27	8	39	24	1.43	5.85	3.6	4.81

2012 Atlanta Braves projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Brian McCann		475	129	23	0	23	77	77	62	88	4	4	0.272	0.36	0.465	0.826	0.354
Freddie Freeman		560	157	32	0	23	79	84	56	133	6	3	0.28	0.352	0.461	0.813	0.354
Dan Uggla		575	146	25	1	33	92	101	69	152	6	2	0.254	0.34	0.473	0.813	0.354
Jason Heyward		505	128	25	3	20	75	71	80	115	7	12	0.253	0.363	0.434	0.797	0.351
Chipper Jones		355	96	23	1	13	58	56	51	61	0	3	0.27	0.362	0.451	0.813	0.35
David Ross		144	36	9	1	5	19	20	19	45	0	0	0.25	0.337	0.431	0.768	0.335
Martin Prado		570	164	32	2	14	82	70	38	63	2	5	0.288	0.334	0.425	0.759	0.331
Michael Bourn		615	174	30	9	2	93	54	56	130	3	56	0.283	0.346	0.371	0.716	0.33
Eric Hinske		211	50	11	0	9	27	28	24	61	2	1	0.237	0.321	0.417	0.738	0.326
Matt Diaz		189	52	10	1	2	21	22	11	41	3	3	0.275	0.325	0.37	0.695	0.308
Jack Wilson		215	55	11	0	0	20	20	10	37	1	3	0.256	0.292	0.307	0.599	0.267

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Craig Kimbrel	3	3	1.67			35	70	42	13	2	118	32	1.06	15.17	4.11	1.49
Jonny Venters	3	3	2.44			5	70	45	19	1	77	34	1.13	9.9	4.37	2.74
Eric O'Flaherty	2	2	2.85			0	60	50	19	2	53	19	1.15	7.95	2.85	2.85
Brandon Beachy	12	8	3.24			0	175	156	63	19	208	58	1.22	10.7	2.98	3.21
Tommy Hanson	14	8	3.11			0	185	157	64	19	183	61	1.18	8.9	2.97	3.56
Mike Minor	7	6	3.83			0	120	122	51	12	115	42	1.37	8.63	3.15	3.56
Kris Medlen	4	3	3.69			0	100	98	41	11	84	24	1.22	7.56	2.16	3.64
Tim Hudson	14	8	3.14			0	195	170	68	14	135	55	1.15	6.23	2.54	3.64
Cristhian Martinez	2	2	3.6			0	60	55	24	6	46	15	1.17	6.9	2.25	3.7
Jair Jurrjens	12	8	3.5			0	175	166	68	16	113	55	1.26	5.81	2.83	3.99
Arodys Vizcaino	2	2	4.5			0	60	56	30	6	60	32	1.47	9	4.8	4.08
Julio Teheran	4	5	4.23			0	100	99	47	14	82	35	1.34	7.38	3.15	4.37
Anthony Varvaro	2	2	4.05			0	60	41	27	8	59	32	1.22	8.85	4.8	4.5
Randall Delgado	3	3	4.5			0	80	76	40	10	50	32	1.35	5.63	3.6	4.77

2012 Washington Nationals projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Michael Morse		525	149	36	0	31	81	91	37	127	13	2	0.284	0.346	0.53	0.876	0.374
Ryan Zimmerman		530	153	30	2	21	86	82	62	97	2	3	0.289	0.365	0.472	0.837	0.364
Jayson Werth		535	132	29	1	22	87	62	75	151	8	17	0.247	0.348	0.428	0.776	0.347
Wilson Ramos		350	92	21	1	14	46	48	35	62	2	0	0.263	0.333	0.449	0.782	0.335
Danny Espinosa		565	133	28	5	23	74	73	59	155	17	15	0.235	0.326	0.425	0.751	0.33
Adam LaRoche		405	99	22	1	15	59	59	49	113	1	1	0.244	0.327	0.415	0.742	0.328
Mark DeRosa		200	53	8	0	5	25	23	20	43	4	2	0.265	0.344	0.38	0.724	0.323
Roger Bernadina		280	73	11	2	7	33	32	22	58	3	17	0.261	0.321	0.389	0.711	0.321
Jesus Flores		200	53	13	1	4	22	24	13	59	1	0	0.265	0.313	0.4	0.713	0.305
Ian Desmond		565	145	28	5	9	76	46	34	126	4	20	0.257	0.303	0.372	0.675	0.3

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Stephen Strasburg	15	8	2.37			0	175	128	46	10	208	30	0.9	10.7	1.54	1.98
Tyler Clippard	2	2	2.96			0	70	43	23	8	83	25	0.97	10.67	3.21	3.31
Drew Storen	2	2	2.85			35	60	47	19	6	59	18	1.08	8.85	2.7	3.41
Jordan Zimmermann	10	9	3.84			0	190	184	81	17	151	40	1.18	7.15	1.89	3.43
Gio Gonzalez	11	10	3.6			0	200	176	80	17	190	92	1.34	8.55	4.14	3.77
Brad Lidge	2	2	3.8			0	45	38	19	4	53	27	1.44	10.6	5.4	3.81
Edwin Jackson	12	10	3.79			0	190	205	80	18	146	63	1.41	6.92	2.98	3.82
Sean Burnett	2	2	3.9			0	60	54	26	5	43	23	1.28	6.45	3.45	4.03
Ryan Perry	2	2	4.86			0	50	49	27	3	36	25	1.48	6.48	4.5	4.1
Tom Gorzelanny	4	4	4.17			0	110	109	51	14	98	43	1.38	8.02	3.52	4.23
John Lannan	9	8	3.95			0	180	194	79	16	98	70	1.47	4.9	3.5	4.41
Ross Detwiler	4	4	4.09			0	110	111	50	12	67	38	1.35	5.48	3.11	4.45
Yunesky Maya	1	1	4.5			0	32	39	16	3	15	11	1.56	4.22	3.09	4.58
Chien-Ming Wang	6	7	4.5			0	140	155	70	17	62	35	1.36	3.99	2.25	4.59
Ryan Mattheus	2	2	5.1			0	60	49	34	4	22	28	1.28	3.3	4.2	4.76

2012 Florida Marlins projections

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Mike Stanton		525	135	31	4	38	91	101	72	163	8	7	0.257	0.355	0.549	0.904	0.385
Logan Morrison		535	145	33	7	25	88	88	73	105	6	2	0.271	0.365	0.499	0.864	0.373
Hanley Ramirez		530	153	28	1	20	88	81	68	97	5	32	0.289	0.375	0.458	0.833	0.37
Jose Reyes		555	170	31	14	9	89	57	43	50	1	35	0.306	0.357	0.461	0.819	0.359
Gaby Sanchez		555	151	34	1	19	79	75	68	93	6	3	0.272	0.358	0.44	0.797	0.351
Bryan Petersen		200	52	12	3	2	26	23	26	47	5	5	0.26	0.359	0.38	0.739	0.333
Emilio Bonifacio		570	161	24	8	4	84	58	59	127	1	41	0.282	0.351	0.374	0.724	0.331
Chris Coghlan		170	46	11	1	3	21	20	16	32	2	5	0.271	0.34	0.4	0.74	0.324
Omar Infante		545	158	22	6	7	63	64	34	66	2	4	0.29	0.334	0.391	0.725	0.319
John Buck		405	97	17	1	15	50	49	39	105	6	0	0.24	0.316	0.398	0.713	0.311
Brett Hayes		130	31	9	0	5	15	17	11	39	0	0	0.238	0.298	0.423	0.721	0.31
Donnie Murphy		150	36	9	2	4	16	18	7	40	4	0	0.24	0.292	0.407	0.699	0.301
Greg Dobbs		350	92	18	0	8	38	40	20	73	1	1	0.263	0.305	0.383	0.687	0.301
Scott Cousins		150	25	4	2	2	13	12	15	58	0	2	0.167	0.242	0.26	0.502	0.227

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Steve Cishek	2	2	3.15			0	60	50	21	2	61	21	1.18	9.15	3.15	2.68
Josh Johnson	12	6	2.87			0	160	127	51	7	154	47	1.09	8.66	2.64	2.68
Heath Bell	2	2	3			35	60	49	20	3	58	21	1.17	8.7	3.15	2.85
Ryan Webb	2	2	3.75			0	60	60	25	2	40	23	1.38	6	3.45	3.43
Anibal Sanchez	14	9	3.29			0	200	193	73	18	192	70	1.32	8.64	3.15	3.47
Edward Mujica	2	2	3.3			0	60	53	22	8	52	10	1.05	7.8	1.5	3.63
Ricky Nolasco	10	11	4.55			0	200	226	101	23	161	43	1.35	7.25	1.94	3.66
Randy Choate	2	2	3.15			0	60	43	21	6	65	27	1.17	9.75	4.05	3.71
Alex Sanabia	4	4	4.5			0	100	107	50	11	67	24	1.31	6.03	2.16	3.98
Mark Buehrle	12	10	3.78			0	205	225	86	20	106	46	1.32	4.65	2.02	4.02
Mike Dunn	2	2	3.9			0	60	49	26	8	65	30	1.32	9.75	4.5	4.25
Carlos Zambrano	10	10	4.11			0	175	176	80	18	134	75	1.43	6.89	3.86	4.29
Wade LeBlanc	4	4	4.2			0	90	95	42	11	62	32	1.41	6.2	3.2	4.42
Jose Ceda	0	0	4.05			0	20	17	9	2	21	14	1.55	9.45	6.3	4.53
Brad Hand	3	3	5.51			0	80	71	49	13	51	47	1.48	5.74	5.29	5.72

2012 New York Mets projections

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Lucas Duda		475	134	34	4	17	74	73	52	91	10	1	0.282	0.365	0.478	0.843	0.366
David Wright		545	147	34	2	21	87	81	73	137	3	18	0.27	0.359	0.455	0.814	0.358
Ike Davis		495	130	31	2	22	81	79	71	120	2	1	0.263	0.357	0.467	0.824	0.353
Daniel Murphy		420	128	30	3	7	62	50	28	47	3	5	0.305	0.353	0.44	0.793	0.344
Jason Bay		450	113	21	3	14	62	55	61	116	4	11	0.251	0.346	0.404	0.75	0.337
Justin Turner		375	107	26	0	4	47	43	35	50	8	4	0.285	0.359	0.387	0.746	0.333
Josh Thole		340	99	16	0	3	46	37	40	43	3	1	0.291	0.371	0.365	0.735	0.326
Ruben Tejada		410	117	20	1	0	53	41	47	61	9	6	0.285	0.371	0.339	0.71	0.321
Andres Torres		450	104	33	4	9	66	38	52	122	4	22	0.231	0.316	0.382	0.698	0.316
Ronny Cedeno		205	52	12	1	2	21	21	14	46	0	3	0.254	0.301	0.351	0.653	0.283

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Bobby Parnell	2	2	3.6			0	60	64	24	4	61	26	1.5	9.15	3.9	3.31
Frank Francisco	2	2	3.27			18	55	52	20	7	61	19	1.29	9.98	3.11	3.55
Johan Santana	8	7	3.66			0	150	136	61	14	117	41	1.18	7.02	2.46	3.59
Jonathon Niese	9	8	3.7			0	175	197	72	17	152	54	1.43	7.82	2.78	3.65
Chris Schwinden	0	0	4.29			0	21	23	10	2	17	6	1.38	7.29	2.57	3.7
R.A. Dickey	11	8	3.51			0	200	195	78	17	126	54	1.25	5.67	2.43	3.86
Tim Byrdak	2	2	3.6			0	60	54	24	6	64	32	1.43	9.6	4.8	3.9
Manny Acosta	2	2	3.6			0	60	60	24	7	58	23	1.38	8.7	3.45	3.91
Pedro Beato	2	2	4.65			0	60	53	31	4	35	24	1.28	5.25	3.6	4.18
Mike Pelfrey	9	11	4.5			0	200	222	100	18	110	67	1.45	4.95	3.02	4.26
Jon Rauch	2	2	4.25			0	55	58	26	8	41	15	1.33	6.71	2.45	4.35
.J. Carrasco	4	5	4.59			0	100	115	51	10	67	36	1.51	6.03	3.24	4.39
Dillon Gee	7	8	4.33			0	160	148	77	17	111	71	1.37	6.24	3.99	4.65
Josh Stinson	2	2	4.65			0	60	65	31	6	37	32	1.62	5.55	4.8	4.85

 

[proshares]

2012 Philadelphia Phillies projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Jim Thome		260	65	14	0	16	46	43	47	84	1	0	0.25	0.367	0.488	0.855	0.37
Ryan Howard		290	74	15	1	17	42	44	37	89	4	1	0.255	0.347	0.49	0.837	0.358
Hunter Pence		595	173	34	4	22	90	102	52	115	1	10	0.291	0.349	0.472	0.821	0.356
Shane Victorino		545	146	28	14	16	83	71	55	68	6	22	0.268	0.342	0.459	0.8	0.354
Chase Utley		475	123	24	5	16	75	71	57	67	18	15	0.259	0.36	0.432	0.792	0.353
John Mayberry		480	125	30	2	22	65	70	47	101	4	11	0.26	0.331	0.469	0.8	0.347
Domonic Brown		270	73	15	1	8	37	35	38	53	0	7	0.27	0.36	0.422	0.783	0.346
Carlos Ruiz		395	107	24	0	7	54	47	51	50	8	1	0.271	0.366	0.385	0.75	0.329
Laynce Nix		250	64	13	1	11	31	35	19	64	1	1	0.256	0.311	0.448	0.759	0.327
Jimmy Rollins		575	148	25	3	15	89	52	58	59	3	30	0.257	0.329	0.39	0.718	0.324
Ty Wigginton		340	86	17	1	12	42	44	30	69	4	3	0.253	0.321	0.415	0.736	0.321
Placido Polanco		490	141	19	1	5	60	56	37	45	5	3	0.288	0.344	0.361	0.705	0.317
Michael Martinez		150	39	4	1	2	17	16	13	25	0	2	0.26	0.319	0.34	0.659	0.299
Brian Schneider		170	40	6	0	4	20	18	19	39	1	0	0.235	0.316	0.341	0.657	0.293

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Jonathan Papelbon	3	3	2.1			35	60	48	14	4	76	14	1.03	11.4	2.1	2.21
Roy Halladay	22	6	2.41			0	220	200	59	14	201	31	1.05	8.22	1.27	2.57
Cliff Lee	20	8	2.58			0	220	196	63	17	209	35	1.05	8.55	1.43	2.72
Cole Hamels	15	8	3.15			0	200	168	70	20	184	46	1.07	8.28	2.07	3.31
Vance Worley	12	8	3.5			0	175	153	68	13	159	61	1.22	8.18	3.14	3.34
Antonio Bastardo	3	3	3.3			10	60	35	22	6	73	27	1.03	10.95	4.05	3.35
Jose Contreras	2	2	4.05			0	40	39	18	3	35	15	1.35	7.88	3.38	3.58
Chad Qualls	3	3	4.02			0	65	70	29	6	44	18	1.35	6.09	2.49	3.8
Joe Blanton	8	6	4.02			0	130	150	58	18	102	34	1.42	7.06	2.35	4.16
Michael Stutes	3	3	4.2			0	60	47	28	7	56	27	1.23	8.4	4.05	4.18
Joe Savery	1	1	4.11			0	35	35	16	4	26	12	1.34	6.69	3.09	4.19
Dontrelle Willis	8	9	4.5			0	120	126	60	10	88	74	1.67	6.6	5.55	4.67
Kyle Kendrick	8	8	4.28			0	120	124	57	16	59	33	1.31	4.43	2.48	4.81
David Herndon	3	3	4.05			0	60	62	27	8	39	24	1.43	5.85	3.6	4.81

2012 Atlanta Braves projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Brian McCann		475	129	23	0	23	77	77	62	88	4	4	0.272	0.36	0.465	0.826	0.354
Freddie Freeman		560	157	32	0	23	79	84	56	133	6	3	0.28	0.352	0.461	0.813	0.354
Dan Uggla		575	146	25	1	33	92	101	69	152	6	2	0.254	0.34	0.473	0.813	0.354
Jason Heyward		505	128	25	3	20	75	71	80	115	7	12	0.253	0.363	0.434	0.797	0.351
Chipper Jones		355	96	23	1	13	58	56	51	61	0	3	0.27	0.362	0.451	0.813	0.35
David Ross		144	36	9	1	5	19	20	19	45	0	0	0.25	0.337	0.431	0.768	0.335
Martin Prado		570	164	32	2	14	82	70	38	63	2	5	0.288	0.334	0.425	0.759	0.331
Michael Bourn		615	174	30	9	2	93	54	56	130	3	56	0.283	0.346	0.371	0.716	0.33
Eric Hinske		211	50	11	0	9	27	28	24	61	2	1	0.237	0.321	0.417	0.738	0.326
Matt Diaz		189	52	10	1	2	21	22	11	41	3	3	0.275	0.325	0.37	0.695	0.308
Jack Wilson		215	55	11	0	0	20	20	10	37	1	3	0.256	0.292	0.307	0.599	0.267

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Craig Kimbrel	3	3	1.67			35	70	42	13	2	118	32	1.06	15.17	4.11	1.49
Jonny Venters	3	3	2.44			5	70	45	19	1	77	34	1.13	9.9	4.37	2.74
Eric O'Flaherty	2	2	2.85			0	60	50	19	2	53	19	1.15	7.95	2.85	2.85
Brandon Beachy	12	8	3.24			0	175	156	63	19	208	58	1.22	10.7	2.98	3.21
Tommy Hanson	14	8	3.11			0	185	157	64	19	183	61	1.18	8.9	2.97	3.56
Mike Minor	7	6	3.83			0	120	122	51	12	115	42	1.37	8.63	3.15	3.56
Kris Medlen	4	3	3.69			0	100	98	41	11	84	24	1.22	7.56	2.16	3.64
Tim Hudson	14	8	3.14			0	195	170	68	14	135	55	1.15	6.23	2.54	3.64
Cristhian Martinez	2	2	3.6			0	60	55	24	6	46	15	1.17	6.9	2.25	3.7
Jair Jurrjens	12	8	3.5			0	175	166	68	16	113	55	1.26	5.81	2.83	3.99
Arodys Vizcaino	2	2	4.5			0	60	56	30	6	60	32	1.47	9	4.8	4.08
Julio Teheran	4	5	4.23			0	100	99	47	14	82	35	1.34	7.38	3.15	4.37
Anthony Varvaro	2	2	4.05			0	60	41	27	8	59	32	1.22	8.85	4.8	4.5
Randall Delgado	3	3	4.5			0	80	76	40	10	50	32	1.35	5.63	3.6	4.77

2012 Washington Nationals projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Michael Morse		525	149	36	0	31	81	91	37	127	13	2	0.284	0.346	0.53	0.876	0.374
Ryan Zimmerman		530	153	30	2	21	86	82	62	97	2	3	0.289	0.365	0.472	0.837	0.364
Jayson Werth		535	132	29	1	22	87	62	75	151	8	17	0.247	0.348	0.428	0.776	0.347
Wilson Ramos		350	92	21	1	14	46	48	35	62	2	0	0.263	0.333	0.449	0.782	0.335
Danny Espinosa		565	133	28	5	23	74	73	59	155	17	15	0.235	0.326	0.425	0.751	0.33
Adam LaRoche		405	99	22	1	15	59	59	49	113	1	1	0.244	0.327	0.415	0.742	0.328
Mark DeRosa		200	53	8	0	5	25	23	20	43	4	2	0.265	0.344	0.38	0.724	0.323
Roger Bernadina		280	73	11	2	7	33	32	22	58	3	17	0.261	0.321	0.389	0.711	0.321
Jesus Flores		200	53	13	1	4	22	24	13	59	1	0	0.265	0.313	0.4	0.713	0.305
Ian Desmond		565	145	28	5	9	76	46	34	126	4	20	0.257	0.303	0.372	0.675	0.3

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Stephen Strasburg	15	8	2.37			0	175	128	46	10	208	30	0.9	10.7	1.54	1.98
Tyler Clippard	2	2	2.96			0	70	43	23	8	83	25	0.97	10.67	3.21	3.31
Drew Storen	2	2	2.85			35	60	47	19	6	59	18	1.08	8.85	2.7	3.41
Jordan Zimmermann	10	9	3.84			0	190	184	81	17	151	40	1.18	7.15	1.89	3.43
Gio Gonzalez	11	10	3.6			0	200	176	80	17	190	92	1.34	8.55	4.14	3.77
Brad Lidge	2	2	3.8			0	45	38	19	4	53	27	1.44	10.6	5.4	3.81
Edwin Jackson	12	10	3.79			0	190	205	80	18	146	63	1.41	6.92	2.98	3.82
Sean Burnett	2	2	3.9			0	60	54	26	5	43	23	1.28	6.45	3.45	4.03
Ryan Perry	2	2	4.86			0	50	49	27	3	36	25	1.48	6.48	4.5	4.1
Tom Gorzelanny	4	4	4.17			0	110	109	51	14	98	43	1.38	8.02	3.52	4.23
John Lannan	9	8	3.95			0	180	194	79	16	98	70	1.47	4.9	3.5	4.41
Ross Detwiler	4	4	4.09			0	110	111	50	12	67	38	1.35	5.48	3.11	4.45
Yunesky Maya	1	1	4.5			0	32	39	16	3	15	11	1.56	4.22	3.09	4.58
Chien-Ming Wang	6	7	4.5			0	140	155	70	17	62	35	1.36	3.99	2.25	4.59
Ryan Mattheus	2	2	5.1			0	60	49	34	4	22	28	1.28	3.3	4.2	4.76

2012 Florida Marlins projections

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Mike Stanton		525	135	31	4	38	91	101	72	163	8	7	0.257	0.355	0.549	0.904	0.385
Logan Morrison		535	145	33	7	25	88	88	73	105	6	2	0.271	0.365	0.499	0.864	0.373
Hanley Ramirez		530	153	28	1	20	88	81	68	97	5	32	0.289	0.375	0.458	0.833	0.37
Jose Reyes		555	170	31	14	9	89	57	43	50	1	35	0.306	0.357	0.461	0.819	0.359
Gaby Sanchez		555	151	34	1	19	79	75	68	93	6	3	0.272	0.358	0.44	0.797	0.351
Bryan Petersen		200	52	12	3	2	26	23	26	47	5	5	0.26	0.359	0.38	0.739	0.333
Emilio Bonifacio		570	161	24	8	4	84	58	59	127	1	41	0.282	0.351	0.374	0.724	0.331
Chris Coghlan		170	46	11	1	3	21	20	16	32	2	5	0.271	0.34	0.4	0.74	0.324
Omar Infante		545	158	22	6	7	63	64	34	66	2	4	0.29	0.334	0.391	0.725	0.319
John Buck		405	97	17	1	15	50	49	39	105	6	0	0.24	0.316	0.398	0.713	0.311
Brett Hayes		130	31	9	0	5	15	17	11	39	0	0	0.238	0.298	0.423	0.721	0.31
Donnie Murphy		150	36	9	2	4	16	18	7	40	4	0	0.24	0.292	0.407	0.699	0.301
Greg Dobbs		350	92	18	0	8	38	40	20	73	1	1	0.263	0.305	0.383	0.687	0.301
Scott Cousins		150	25	4	2	2	13	12	15	58	0	2	0.167	0.242	0.26	0.502	0.227

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Steve Cishek	2	2	3.15			0	60	50	21	2	61	21	1.18	9.15	3.15	2.68
Josh Johnson	12	6	2.87			0	160	127	51	7	154	47	1.09	8.66	2.64	2.68
Heath Bell	2	2	3			35	60	49	20	3	58	21	1.17	8.7	3.15	2.85
Ryan Webb	2	2	3.75			0	60	60	25	2	40	23	1.38	6	3.45	3.43
Anibal Sanchez	14	9	3.29			0	200	193	73	18	192	70	1.32	8.64	3.15	3.47
Edward Mujica	2	2	3.3			0	60	53	22	8	52	10	1.05	7.8	1.5	3.63
Ricky Nolasco	10	11	4.55			0	200	226	101	23	161	43	1.35	7.25	1.94	3.66
Randy Choate	2	2	3.15			0	60	43	21	6	65	27	1.17	9.75	4.05	3.71
Alex Sanabia	4	4	4.5			0	100	107	50	11	67	24	1.31	6.03	2.16	3.98
Mark Buehrle	12	10	3.78			0	205	225	86	20	106	46	1.32	4.65	2.02	4.02
Mike Dunn	2	2	3.9			0	60	49	26	8	65	30	1.32	9.75	4.5	4.25
Carlos Zambrano	10	10	4.11			0	175	176	80	18	134	75	1.43	6.89	3.86	4.29
Wade LeBlanc	4	4	4.2			0	90	95	42	11	62	32	1.41	6.2	3.2	4.42
Jose Ceda	0	0	4.05			0	20	17	9	2	21	14	1.55	9.45	6.3	4.53
Brad Hand	3	3	5.51			0	80	71	49	13	51	47	1.48	5.74	5.29	5.72

2012 New York Mets projections

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Lucas Duda		475	134	34	4	17	74	73	52	91	10	1	0.282	0.365	0.478	0.843	0.366
David Wright		545	147	34	2	21	87	81	73	137	3	18	0.27	0.359	0.455	0.814	0.358
Ike Davis		495	130	31	2	22	81	79	71	120	2	1	0.263	0.357	0.467	0.824	0.353
Daniel Murphy		420	128	30	3	7	62	50	28	47	3	5	0.305	0.353	0.44	0.793	0.344
Jason Bay		450	113	21	3	14	62	55	61	116	4	11	0.251	0.346	0.404	0.75	0.337
Justin Turner		375	107	26	0	4	47	43	35	50	8	4	0.285	0.359	0.387	0.746	0.333
Josh Thole		340	99	16	0	3	46	37	40	43	3	1	0.291	0.371	0.365	0.735	0.326
Ruben Tejada		410	117	20	1	0	53	41	47	61	9	6	0.285	0.371	0.339	0.71	0.321
Andres Torres		450	104	33	4	9	66	38	52	122	4	22	0.231	0.316	0.382	0.698	0.316
Ronny Cedeno		205	52	12	1	2	21	21	14	46	0	3	0.254	0.301	0.351	0.653	0.283

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Bobby Parnell	2	2	3.6			0	60	64	24	4	61	26	1.5	9.15	3.9	3.31
Frank Francisco	2	2	3.27			18	55	52	20	7	61	19	1.29	9.98	3.11	3.55
Johan Santana	8	7	3.66			0	150	136	61	14	117	41	1.18	7.02	2.46	3.59
Jonathon Niese	9	8	3.7			0	175	197	72	17	152	54	1.43	7.82	2.78	3.65
Chris Schwinden	0	0	4.29			0	21	23	10	2	17	6	1.38	7.29	2.57	3.7
R.A. Dickey	11	8	3.51			0	200	195	78	17	126	54	1.25	5.67	2.43	3.86
Tim Byrdak	2	2	3.6			0	60	54	24	6	64	32	1.43	9.6	4.8	3.9
Manny Acosta	2	2	3.6			0	60	60	24	7	58	23	1.38	8.7	3.45	3.91
Pedro Beato	2	2	4.65			0	60	53	31	4	35	24	1.28	5.25	3.6	4.18
Mike Pelfrey	9	11	4.5			0	200	222	100	18	110	67	1.45	4.95	3.02	4.26
Jon Rauch	2	2	4.25			0	55	58	26	8	41	15	1.33	6.71	2.45	4.35
.J. Carrasco	4	5	4.59			0	100	115	51	10	67	36	1.51	6.03	3.24	4.39
Dillon Gee	7	8	4.33			0	160	148	77	17	111	71	1.37	6.24	3.99	4.65
Josh Stinson	2	2	4.65			0	60	65	31	6	37	32	1.62	5.55	4.8	4.85

 

[proshares]

2012 St. Louis Cardinals projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Matt Holliday		500	150	38	1	24	88	90	65	95	8	5	0.3	0.389	0.524	0.913	0.395
Lance Berkman		465	134	25	2	24	89	85	88	96	2	5	0.288	0.404	0.505	0.909	0.389
Carlos Beltran		475	136	32	5	19	83	66	67	80	2	6	0.286	0.377	0.495	0.872	0.378
Allen Craig		235	67	14	0	10	31	35	18	47	2	3	0.285	0.341	0.472	0.814	0.356
David Freese		480	141	23	2	13	70	71	37	109	6	1	0.294	0.352	0.431	0.783	0.345
Yadier Molina		435	128	25	1	10	56	59	35	41	3	5	0.294	0.351	0.425	0.776	0.338
Jon Jay		520	154	29	3	11	77	63	36	90	7	6	0.296	0.35	0.427	0.777	0.338
Rafael Furcal		455	124	22	3	10	58	58	42	61	3	15	0.273	0.338	0.4	0.738	0.33
Tyler Greene		150	38	6	0	2	19	16	18	41	6	11	0.253	0.356	0.333	0.69	0.327
Daniel Descalso		300	84	19	3	1	37	35	31	56	3	4	0.28	0.353	0.373	0.727	0.316
Skip Schumaker		300	87	14	0	2	36	33	25	40	2	1	0.29	0.349	0.357	0.705	0.313
Tony Cruz		120	27	9	0	0	13	11	12	23	2	0	0.225	0.306	0.3	0.606	0.263

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Jason Motte	3	3	3			25	60	46	20	3	58	17	1.05	8.7	2.55	2.8
Adam Wainwright	13	8	3.45			0	175	149	67	12	158	45	1.11	8.13	2.31	2.99
Lance Lynn	3	3	2.7			0	60	44	18	6	70	19	1.05	10.5	2.85	3.1
Chris Carpenter	16	7	3.55			0	195	190	77	14	154	47	1.22	7.11	2.17	3.26
Jaime Garcia	15	8	3.18			0	195	201	69	14	157	57	1.32	7.25	2.63	3.31
Fernando Salas	3	3	3.3			10	60	42	22	6	60	19	1.02	9	2.85	3.38
Eduardo Sanchez	3	3	3.9			0	60	28	26	5	70	32	1	10.5	4.8	3.63
Mitchell Boggs	3	3	3.73			0	70	71	29	5	55	28	1.41	7.07	3.6	3.77
Marc Rzepczynski	3	3	3.45			0	60	54	23	5	58	27	1.35	8.7	4.05	3.78
Kyle Lohse	10	9	4.23			0	185	190	87	17	110	47	1.28	5.35	2.29	3.91
Jake Westbrook	9	9	4.28			0	160	175	76	15	94	60	1.47	5.29	3.38	4.31
Kyle McClellan	9	8	4.05			0	120	116	54	16	72	38	1.28	5.4	2.85	4.69
J.C. Romero	2	2	4.73			0	40	39	21	3	32	28	1.68	7.2	6.3	4.78

2012 Milwaukee Brewers projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Ryan Braun		380	122	26	3	21	59	68	38	64	4	15	0.321	0.389	0.571	0.96	0.417
Corey Hart		525	144	29	4	26	84	74	50	122	5	9	0.274	0.343	0.493	0.836	0.362
Aramis Ramirez		495	143	28	1	23	77	89	39	72	8	1	0.289	0.351	0.489	0.839	0.362
Rickie Weeks		525	140	28	3	23	85	84	61	132	13	11	0.267	0.357	0.463	0.82	0.361
George Kottaras		120	32	7	1	5	17	18	15	27	0	1	0.267	0.348	0.467	0.815	0.358
Nyjer Morgan		405	114	18	6	3	60	36	26	73	12	18	0.281	0.343	0.378	0.721	0.323
Jonathan Lucroy		415	113	15	1	11	51	52	29	87	2	3	0.272	0.323	0.393	0.716	0.317
Mat Gamel		410	100	19	1	14	55	51	35	122	4	0	0.244	0.31	0.398	0.707	0.313
Carlos Gomez		275	65	12	3	8	30	34	18	70	3	16	0.236	0.291	0.389	0.68	0.306
Taylor Green		150	45	12	0	0	14	18	0	23	0	0	0.3	0.3	0.38	0.68	0.296
Taylor Green		150	45	12	0	0	14	18	0	23	0	0	0.3	0.3	0.38	0.68	0.296
Alex Gonzalez		515	125	27	1	15	54	64	23	110	3	1	0.243	0.279	0.386	0.666	0.29

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
John Axford	2	2	2.55			35	60	47	17	3	73	23	1.17	10.95	3.45	2.45
Francisco Rodriguez	2	2	3			2	60	53	20	4	67	24	1.28	10.05	3.6	3.01
Zack Greinke	15	7	2.95			0	195	185	64	18	204	50	1.21	9.42	2.31	3.03
Kameron Loe	2	2	2.85			0	60	55	19	4	50	14	1.15	7.5	2.1	3.08
Tim Dillard	2	2	3			0	60	57	20	7	55	11	1.13	8.25	1.65	3.46
Yovani Gallardo	15	10	3.47			0	215	199	83	24	221	72	1.26	9.25	3.01	3.51
Brandon Kintzler	2	2	2.85			0	60	64	19	8	66	16	1.33	9.9	2.4	3.51
Shaun Marcum	13	10	3.74			0	200	177	83	23	161	54	1.16	7.25	2.43	3.81
Marco Estrada	3	3	3.73			0	70	65	29	9	68	23	1.26	8.74	2.96	3.88
Jose Veras	2	2	3.9			0	60	45	26	6	65	31	1.27	9.75	4.65	3.91
Chris Narveson	9	9	4.35			0	155	155	75	17	124	60	1.39	7.2	3.48	4.11
Zach Braddock	2	2	4.95			0	60	55	33	6	68	37	1.53	10.2	5.55	4.16
Randy Wolf	12	9	3.74			0	190	187	79	22	126	63	1.32	5.97	2.98	4.41

2012 Cincinnati Reds projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Joey Votto		575	180	39	3	31	115	111	102	123	5	10	0.313	0.421	0.553	0.974	0.416
Todd Frazier		120	34	5	0	7	17	19	8	28	2	1	0.283	0.338	0.5	0.838	0.366
Chris Heisey		480	126	17	2	30	66	77	35	132	10	7	0.263	0.326	0.494	0.819	0.352
Jay Bruce		565	144	26	3	31	91	100	70	142	4	7	0.255	0.341	0.476	0.817	0.347
Ryan Hanigan		270	78	8	0	6	39	33	38	32	3	0	0.289	0.383	0.385	0.768	0.343
Scott Rolen		400	108	30	3	11	55	61	30	63	7	2	0.27	0.332	0.443	0.774	0.339
Brandon Phillips		595	166	34	3	17	93	60	44	83	8	17	0.279	0.337	0.432	0.769	0.339
Miguel Cairo		120	33	5	1	3	15	15	9	18	3	2	0.275	0.341	0.408	0.749	0.333
Zack Cozart		385	109	23	2	11	53	46	19	61	0	0	0.283	0.317	0.439	0.756	0.329
Juan Francisco		150	40	11	1	5	17	21	8	40	0	1	0.267	0.304	0.453	0.757	0.327
Drew Stubbs		576	142	21	4	18	75	73	62	189	6	35	0.247	0.326	0.391	0.717	0.325
Devin Mesoraco		325	81	20	0	15	38	46	21	60	0	0	0.249	0.295	0.449	0.744	0.316
Ryan Ludwick		455	110	22	1	14	57	54	47	114	5	1	0.242	0.32	0.387	0.706	0.31
Wilson Valdez		170	48	8	2	1	19	20	11	25	0	2	0.282	0.326	0.371	0.697	0.304
Paul Janish		250	64	12	1	1	27	26	18	35	3	2	0.256	0.314	0.324	0.638	0.284

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Sean Marshall	3	3	2.49			5	65	57	18	2	69	18	1.15	9.55	2.49	2.28
Ryan Madson	2	2	2.7			35	60	53	18	3	63	16	1.15	9.45	2.4	2.53
Mat Latos	15	9	3.65			0	200	179	81	17	194	62	1.21	8.73	2.79	3.19
Aroldis Chapman	3	3	3.15			25	60	30	21	3	85	47	1.28	12.75	7.05	3.35
Bill Bray	3	3	3.9			0	60	45	26	5	57	22	1.12	8.55	3.3	3.46
Nick Masset	3	3	3.32			5	65	64	24	5	61	28	1.42	8.45	3.88	3.54
Johnny Cueto	13	8	3.45			0	175	153	67	14	125	55	1.19	6.43	2.83	3.82
Homer Bailey	10	9	4.05			0	160	165	72	20	131	48	1.33	7.37	2.7	4.06
Sam LeCure	5	4	3.52			0	110	88	43	14	100	36	1.13	8.18	2.95	4.09
Jose Arredondo	2	2	4.42			0	55	46	27	5	51	31	1.4	8.35	5.07	4.21
Mike Leake	11	8	3.81			0	175	175	74	24	121	45	1.26	6.22	2.31	4.37
Logan Ondrusek	3	3	4.35			0	60	53	29	6	40	26	1.32	6	3.9	4.4
Jordan Smith	0	0	4.5			0	20	27	10	3	13	7	1.7	5.85	3.15	4.93
Bronson Arroyo	11	10	4.23			0	200	210	94	38	113	50	1.3	5.09	2.25	5.26

2012 Chicago Cubs projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Bryan LaHair		380	98	29	5	12	60	61	56	114	0	0	0.258	0.353	0.455	0.808	0.354
Anthony Rizzo		250	62	14	2	12	34	37	27	74	8	4	0.248	0.34	0.464	0.804	0.35
Geovany Soto		435	109	27	0	18	62	58	58	120	4	0	0.251	0.344	0.437	0.781	0.342
Starlin Castro		628	191	36	8	9	90	74	37	86	3	21	0.304	0.346	0.43	0.776	0.339
David DeJesus		475	127	24	5	10	76	43	48	83	9	4	0.267	0.346	0.402	0.748	0.331
Marlon Byrd		468	133	27	2	10	64	64	27	82	10	4	0.284	0.337	0.415	0.751	0.33
Alfonso Soriano		458	113	28	1	22	61	69	32	116	3	3	0.247	0.3	0.456	0.757	0.326
Tony Campana		200	59	6	1	2	23	22	12	41	1	25	0.295	0.338	0.365	0.703	0.318
Reed Johnson		250	66	19	1	5	27	31	7	62	10	2	0.264	0.311	0.408	0.719	0.315
Darwin Barney		485	142	22	5	2	54	54	22	60	7	6	0.293	0.333	0.371	0.704	0.313
Jeff Baker		200	53	12	1	4	22	24	13	48	0	0	0.265	0.31	0.395	0.705	0.31
Ian Stewart		475	107	21	3	16	59	56	58	141	4	11	0.225	0.315	0.383	0.698	0.305
Dave Sappelt		120	33	9	0	0	13	13	8	18	0	1	0.275	0.32	0.35	0.67	0.297
Welington Castillo		150	34	12	0	4	15	16	9	44	0	0	0.227	0.27	0.387	0.657	0.287

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Carlos Marmol	3	3	3.34			35	70	45	26	4	101	47	1.31	12.99	6.04	3.29
Matt Garza	13	8	3.25			0	205	191	74	19	186	66	1.25	8.17	2.9	3.51
Kerry Wood	2	2	3.76			0	55	47	23	5	62	25	1.31	10.15	4.09	3.64
Travis Wood	4	4	4.5			0	100	103	50	9	75	34	1.37	6.75	3.06	3.89
Ryan Dempster	11	10	4.01			0	200	199	89	22	188	79	1.39	8.46	3.56	3.91
Marcos Mateo	0	0	3.52			0	23	23	9	3	26	10	1.43	10.17	3.91	3.95
Paul Maholm	8	8	4.24			0	170	182	80	13	101	54	1.39	5.35	2.86	3.98
Jeff Samardzija	3	3	4.44			0	75	60	37	6	70	45	1.4	8.4	5.4	4.21
Chris Volstad	8	9	4.29			0	170	187	81	22	114	54	1.42	6.04	2.86	4.43
Casey Coleman	2	2	4.65			0	60	70	31	6	48	31	1.68	7.2	4.65	4.48
Randy Wells	8	8	4.28			0	160	168	76	22	105	53	1.38	5.91	2.98	4.62
James Russell	2	2	4.43			0	65	73	32	12	45	14	1.34	6.23	1.94	4.88
Scott Maine	2	2	5.2			0	45	53	26	7	35	26	1.76	7	5.2	5.35
Andy Sonnanstine	1	1	5.14			0	35	39	20	7	18	11	1.43	4.63	2.83	5.77

2012 Pittsburgh Pirates projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen		575	159	35	6	21	97	85	87	109	7	30	0.277	0.378	0.468	0.846	0.374
Alex Presley		445	132	25	12	8	63	53	28	83	2	20	0.297	0.341	0.461	0.802	0.349
Jose Tabata		520	150	28	3	7	86	43	57	82	5	28	0.288	0.364	0.394	0.758	0.341
Neil Walker		550	153	35	4	12	79	77	50	102	4	7	0.278	0.343	0.422	0.765	0.333
Garrett Jones		460	114	30	1	17	65	62	50	108	2	7	0.248	0.324	0.428	0.752	0.33
Nate McLouth		290	68	14	2	7	38	30	44	58	4	7	0.234	0.343	0.369	0.712	0.321
Casey McGehee		340	87	17	1	10	40	39	29	62	1	0	0.256	0.316	0.4	0.716	0.312
Clint Barmes		425	104	24	1	11	49	47	35	83	6	4	0.245	0.311	0.384	0.695	0.307
Rod Barajas		250	58	11	0	12	28	30	15	54	4	0	0.232	0.286	0.42	0.706	0.305
Pedro Alvarez		500	113	24	2	15	60	54	55	162	3	2	0.226	0.306	0.372	0.678	0.302
Chase D'Arnaud		385	102	16	5	0	36	36	11	92	3	35	0.265	0.291	0.332	0.623	0.29
Josh Harrison		195	53	13	2	1	18	21	3	22	0	4	0.272	0.283	0.374	0.657	0.289
Michael McKenry		200	48	13	0	2	21	19	16	55	0	0	0.24	0.296	0.335	0.631	0.276
Yamaico Navarro		125	28	5	0	2	13	11	10	31	0	0	0.224	0.281	0.312	0.593	0.267

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Joel Hanrahan	2	2	2.85			35	60	52	19	2	64	19	1.18	9.6	2.85	2.43
Chris Leroux	0	0	3.6			0	25	28	10	1	24	10	1.52	8.64	3.6	3
Chris Resop	2	2	3.6			0	60	61	24	6	69	27	1.47	10.35	4.05	3.53
Jason Grilli	2	2	3.75			0	60	50	25	5	66	30	1.33	9.9	4.5	3.71
Erik Bedard	6	5	3.53			0	120	108	47	13	117	45	1.28	8.78	3.38	3.71
Jared Hughes	2	2	2.7			0	60	49	18	6	55	22	1.18	8.25	3.3	3.75
Evan Meek	2	2	3.9			0	60	53	26	4	52	30	1.38	7.8	4.5	3.81
Charlie Morton	7	9	4.42			0	175	198	86	11	115	76	1.57	5.91	3.91	4.11
Daniel Moskos	2	2	4.65			0	60	72	31	4	27	22	1.57	4.05	3.3	4.2
Tony Watson	1	1	4.17			0	41	34	19	5	37	20	1.32	8.12	4.39	4.4
Jeff Karstens	7	8	4.08			0	150	158	68	21	87	34	1.28	5.22	2.04	4.48
James McDonald	7	9	4.32			0	175	178	84	22	148	79	1.47	7.61	4.06	4.48
Brad Lincoln	3	4	4.41			0	100	118	49	11	57	32	1.5	5.13	2.88	4.51
Daniel McCutchen	4	6	4.75			0	110	119	58	12	61	43	1.47	4.99	3.52	4.7
Kevin Correia	7	10	4.61			0	170	187	87	24	102	53	1.41	5.4	2.81	4.7

2012 Houston Astros projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Matt Downs		150	39	13	0	6	19	20	13	34	4	0	0.26	0.335	0.467	0.802	0.351
J.D. Martinez		475	139	31	0	15	68	68	32	101	5	0	0.293	0.344	0.453	0.796	0.345
Carlos Lee		545	147	32	3	18	77	79	47	57	3	4	0.27	0.331	0.439	0.77	0.334
Jordan Schafer		510	140	18	5	4	79	38	53	118	3	35	0.275	0.346	0.353	0.699	0.324
Jason Bourgeois		280	84	9	2	1	31	28	15	30	0	31	0.3	0.336	0.357	0.693	0.323
Jed Lowrie		510	131	27	5	13	63	60	47	96	3	2	0.257	0.323	0.406	0.729	0.319
Jack Cust		175	38	9	0	5	24	19	35	67	1	0	0.217	0.351	0.354	0.705	0.319
Chris Johnson		325	87	19	2	7	35	37	14	83	5	2	0.268	0.308	0.403	0.711	0.309
Brett Wallace		505	126	32	1	8	68	57	53	135	8	1	0.25	0.33	0.364	0.695	0.308
Jose Altuve		535	155	25	2	6	67	52	13	67	5	19	0.29	0.313	0.378	0.69	0.306
Jimmy Paredes		350	87	17	4	5	36	37	20	92	0	12	0.249	0.289	0.363	0.652	0.283
Humberto Quintero		275	66	12	1	3	24	25	7	59	2	1	0.24	0.264	0.324	0.588	0.257

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Wilton Lopez	2	2	3.45			0	60	62	23	5	46	13	1.25	6.9	1.95	3.38
Wandy Rodriguez	11	9	3.47			0	200	190	77	23	178	70	1.3	8.01	3.15	3.94
Sergio Escalona	2	2	3.78			0	50	44	21	5	45	20	1.28	8.1	3.6	3.96
Juan Abreu	2	2	3.75			25	60	58	25	7	71	29	1.45	10.65	4.35	3.98
Bud Norris	10	9	4.01			0	200	193	89	25	194	82	1.38	8.73	3.69	4.09
David Carpenter	2	2	4.05			0	60	62	27	7	64	29	1.52	9.6	4.35	4.16
Brett Myers	10	9	3.83			0	200	204	85	27	153	56	1.3	6.89	2.52	4.21
Lucas Harrell	1	1	4.28			0	40	53	19	3	30	22	1.88	6.75	4.95	4.28
Fernando Rodriguez	2	2	4.2			0	60	59	28	7	66	35	1.57	9.9	5.25	4.3
Brandon Lyon	2	2	4.4			0	45	50	22	5	30	17	1.49	6	3.4	4.39
Wesley Wright	2	2	3.96			0	50	45	22	7	47	23	1.36	8.46	4.14	4.52
Jordan Lyles	7	9	4.32			0	150	171	72	22	107	41	1.41	6.42	2.46	4.54
Enerio Del Rosario	2	2	4.58			0	53	61	27	3	30	30	1.72	5.09	5.09	4.55
J.A. Happ	8	9	4.24			0	170	164	80	21	141	86	1.47	7.46	4.55	4.6
Henry Sosa	2	2	4.5			0	50	51	25	6	36	22	1.46	6.48	3.96	4.7
Aneury Rodriguez	2	2	4.8			0	60	59	32	9	45	23	1.37	6.75	3.45	4.73
Kyle Weiland	5	7	5.7			0	120	144	76	17	64	60	1.7	4.8	4.5	5.61

 

[proshares]

2012 St. Louis Cardinals projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Matt Holliday		500	150	38	1	24	88	90	65	95	8	5	0.3	0.389	0.524	0.913	0.395
Lance Berkman		465	134	25	2	24	89	85	88	96	2	5	0.288	0.404	0.505	0.909	0.389
Carlos Beltran		475	136	32	5	19	83	66	67	80	2	6	0.286	0.377	0.495	0.872	0.378
Allen Craig		235	67	14	0	10	31	35	18	47	2	3	0.285	0.341	0.472	0.814	0.356
David Freese		480	141	23	2	13	70	71	37	109	6	1	0.294	0.352	0.431	0.783	0.345
Yadier Molina		435	128	25	1	10	56	59	35	41	3	5	0.294	0.351	0.425	0.776	0.338
Jon Jay		520	154	29	3	11	77	63	36	90	7	6	0.296	0.35	0.427	0.777	0.338
Rafael Furcal		455	124	22	3	10	58	58	42	61	3	15	0.273	0.338	0.4	0.738	0.33
Tyler Greene		150	38	6	0	2	19	16	18	41	6	11	0.253	0.356	0.333	0.69	0.327
Daniel Descalso		300	84	19	3	1	37	35	31	56	3	4	0.28	0.353	0.373	0.727	0.316
Skip Schumaker		300	87	14	0	2	36	33	25	40	2	1	0.29	0.349	0.357	0.705	0.313
Tony Cruz		120	27	9	0	0	13	11	12	23	2	0	0.225	0.306	0.3	0.606	0.263

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Jason Motte	3	3	3			25	60	46	20	3	58	17	1.05	8.7	2.55	2.8
Adam Wainwright	13	8	3.45			0	175	149	67	12	158	45	1.11	8.13	2.31	2.99
Lance Lynn	3	3	2.7			0	60	44	18	6	70	19	1.05	10.5	2.85	3.1
Chris Carpenter	16	7	3.55			0	195	190	77	14	154	47	1.22	7.11	2.17	3.26
Jaime Garcia	15	8	3.18			0	195	201	69	14	157	57	1.32	7.25	2.63	3.31
Fernando Salas	3	3	3.3			10	60	42	22	6	60	19	1.02	9	2.85	3.38
Eduardo Sanchez	3	3	3.9			0	60	28	26	5	70	32	1	10.5	4.8	3.63
Mitchell Boggs	3	3	3.73			0	70	71	29	5	55	28	1.41	7.07	3.6	3.77
Marc Rzepczynski	3	3	3.45			0	60	54	23	5	58	27	1.35	8.7	4.05	3.78
Kyle Lohse	10	9	4.23			0	185	190	87	17	110	47	1.28	5.35	2.29	3.91
Jake Westbrook	9	9	4.28			0	160	175	76	15	94	60	1.47	5.29	3.38	4.31
Kyle McClellan	9	8	4.05			0	120	116	54	16	72	38	1.28	5.4	2.85	4.69
J.C. Romero	2	2	4.73			0	40	39	21	3	32	28	1.68	7.2	6.3	4.78

2012 Milwaukee Brewers projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Ryan Braun		380	122	26	3	21	59	68	38	64	4	15	0.321	0.389	0.571	0.96	0.417
Corey Hart		525	144	29	4	26	84	74	50	122	5	9	0.274	0.343	0.493	0.836	0.362
Aramis Ramirez		495	143	28	1	23	77	89	39	72	8	1	0.289	0.351	0.489	0.839	0.362
Rickie Weeks		525	140	28	3	23	85	84	61	132	13	11	0.267	0.357	0.463	0.82	0.361
George Kottaras		120	32	7	1	5	17	18	15	27	0	1	0.267	0.348	0.467	0.815	0.358
Nyjer Morgan		405	114	18	6	3	60	36	26	73	12	18	0.281	0.343	0.378	0.721	0.323
Jonathan Lucroy		415	113	15	1	11	51	52	29	87	2	3	0.272	0.323	0.393	0.716	0.317
Mat Gamel		410	100	19	1	14	55	51	35	122	4	0	0.244	0.31	0.398	0.707	0.313
Carlos Gomez		275	65	12	3	8	30	34	18	70	3	16	0.236	0.291	0.389	0.68	0.306
Taylor Green		150	45	12	0	0	14	18	0	23	0	0	0.3	0.3	0.38	0.68	0.296
Taylor Green		150	45	12	0	0	14	18	0	23	0	0	0.3	0.3	0.38	0.68	0.296
Alex Gonzalez		515	125	27	1	15	54	64	23	110	3	1	0.243	0.279	0.386	0.666	0.29

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
John Axford	2	2	2.55			35	60	47	17	3	73	23	1.17	10.95	3.45	2.45
Francisco Rodriguez	2	2	3			2	60	53	20	4	67	24	1.28	10.05	3.6	3.01
Zack Greinke	15	7	2.95			0	195	185	64	18	204	50	1.21	9.42	2.31	3.03
Kameron Loe	2	2	2.85			0	60	55	19	4	50	14	1.15	7.5	2.1	3.08
Tim Dillard	2	2	3			0	60	57	20	7	55	11	1.13	8.25	1.65	3.46
Yovani Gallardo	15	10	3.47			0	215	199	83	24	221	72	1.26	9.25	3.01	3.51
Brandon Kintzler	2	2	2.85			0	60	64	19	8	66	16	1.33	9.9	2.4	3.51
Shaun Marcum	13	10	3.74			0	200	177	83	23	161	54	1.16	7.25	2.43	3.81
Marco Estrada	3	3	3.73			0	70	65	29	9	68	23	1.26	8.74	2.96	3.88
Jose Veras	2	2	3.9			0	60	45	26	6	65	31	1.27	9.75	4.65	3.91
Chris Narveson	9	9	4.35			0	155	155	75	17	124	60	1.39	7.2	3.48	4.11
Zach Braddock	2	2	4.95			0	60	55	33	6	68	37	1.53	10.2	5.55	4.16
Randy Wolf	12	9	3.74			0	190	187	79	22	126	63	1.32	5.97	2.98	4.41

2012 Cincinnati Reds projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Joey Votto		575	180	39	3	31	115	111	102	123	5	10	0.313	0.421	0.553	0.974	0.416
Todd Frazier		120	34	5	0	7	17	19	8	28	2	1	0.283	0.338	0.5	0.838	0.366
Chris Heisey		480	126	17	2	30	66	77	35	132	10	7	0.263	0.326	0.494	0.819	0.352
Jay Bruce		565	144	26	3	31	91	100	70	142	4	7	0.255	0.341	0.476	0.817	0.347
Ryan Hanigan		270	78	8	0	6	39	33	38	32	3	0	0.289	0.383	0.385	0.768	0.343
Scott Rolen		400	108	30	3	11	55	61	30	63	7	2	0.27	0.332	0.443	0.774	0.339
Brandon Phillips		595	166	34	3	17	93	60	44	83	8	17	0.279	0.337	0.432	0.769	0.339
Miguel Cairo		120	33	5	1	3	15	15	9	18	3	2	0.275	0.341	0.408	0.749	0.333
Zack Cozart		385	109	23	2	11	53	46	19	61	0	0	0.283	0.317	0.439	0.756	0.329
Juan Francisco		150	40	11	1	5	17	21	8	40	0	1	0.267	0.304	0.453	0.757	0.327
Drew Stubbs		576	142	21	4	18	75	73	62	189	6	35	0.247	0.326	0.391	0.717	0.325
Devin Mesoraco		325	81	20	0	15	38	46	21	60	0	0	0.249	0.295	0.449	0.744	0.316
Ryan Ludwick		455	110	22	1	14	57	54	47	114	5	1	0.242	0.32	0.387	0.706	0.31
Wilson Valdez		170	48	8	2	1	19	20	11	25	0	2	0.282	0.326	0.371	0.697	0.304
Paul Janish		250	64	12	1	1	27	26	18	35	3	2	0.256	0.314	0.324	0.638	0.284

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Sean Marshall	3	3	2.49			5	65	57	18	2	69	18	1.15	9.55	2.49	2.28
Ryan Madson	2	2	2.7			35	60	53	18	3	63	16	1.15	9.45	2.4	2.53
Mat Latos	15	9	3.65			0	200	179	81	17	194	62	1.21	8.73	2.79	3.19
Aroldis Chapman	3	3	3.15			25	60	30	21	3	85	47	1.28	12.75	7.05	3.35
Bill Bray	3	3	3.9			0	60	45	26	5	57	22	1.12	8.55	3.3	3.46
Nick Masset	3	3	3.32			5	65	64	24	5	61	28	1.42	8.45	3.88	3.54
Johnny Cueto	13	8	3.45			0	175	153	67	14	125	55	1.19	6.43	2.83	3.82
Homer Bailey	10	9	4.05			0	160	165	72	20	131	48	1.33	7.37	2.7	4.06
Sam LeCure	5	4	3.52			0	110	88	43	14	100	36	1.13	8.18	2.95	4.09
Jose Arredondo	2	2	4.42			0	55	46	27	5	51	31	1.4	8.35	5.07	4.21
Mike Leake	11	8	3.81			0	175	175	74	24	121	45	1.26	6.22	2.31	4.37
Logan Ondrusek	3	3	4.35			0	60	53	29	6	40	26	1.32	6	3.9	4.4
Jordan Smith	0	0	4.5			0	20	27	10	3	13	7	1.7	5.85	3.15	4.93
Bronson Arroyo	11	10	4.23			0	200	210	94	38	113	50	1.3	5.09	2.25	5.26

2012 Chicago Cubs projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Bryan LaHair		380	98	29	5	12	60	61	56	114	0	0	0.258	0.353	0.455	0.808	0.354
Anthony Rizzo		250	62	14	2	12	34	37	27	74	8	4	0.248	0.34	0.464	0.804	0.35
Geovany Soto		435	109	27	0	18	62	58	58	120	4	0	0.251	0.344	0.437	0.781	0.342
Starlin Castro		628	191	36	8	9	90	74	37	86	3	21	0.304	0.346	0.43	0.776	0.339
David DeJesus		475	127	24	5	10	76	43	48	83	9	4	0.267	0.346	0.402	0.748	0.331
Marlon Byrd		468	133	27	2	10	64	64	27	82	10	4	0.284	0.337	0.415	0.751	0.33
Alfonso Soriano		458	113	28	1	22	61	69	32	116	3	3	0.247	0.3	0.456	0.757	0.326
Tony Campana		200	59	6	1	2	23	22	12	41	1	25	0.295	0.338	0.365	0.703	0.318
Reed Johnson		250	66	19	1	5	27	31	7	62	10	2	0.264	0.311	0.408	0.719	0.315
Darwin Barney		485	142	22	5	2	54	54	22	60	7	6	0.293	0.333	0.371	0.704	0.313
Jeff Baker		200	53	12	1	4	22	24	13	48	0	0	0.265	0.31	0.395	0.705	0.31
Ian Stewart		475	107	21	3	16	59	56	58	141	4	11	0.225	0.315	0.383	0.698	0.305
Dave Sappelt		120	33	9	0	0	13	13	8	18	0	1	0.275	0.32	0.35	0.67	0.297
Welington Castillo		150	34	12	0	4	15	16	9	44	0	0	0.227	0.27	0.387	0.657	0.287

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Carlos Marmol	3	3	3.34			35	70	45	26	4	101	47	1.31	12.99	6.04	3.29
Matt Garza	13	8	3.25			0	205	191	74	19	186	66	1.25	8.17	2.9	3.51
Kerry Wood	2	2	3.76			0	55	47	23	5	62	25	1.31	10.15	4.09	3.64
Travis Wood	4	4	4.5			0	100	103	50	9	75	34	1.37	6.75	3.06	3.89
Ryan Dempster	11	10	4.01			0	200	199	89	22	188	79	1.39	8.46	3.56	3.91
Marcos Mateo	0	0	3.52			0	23	23	9	3	26	10	1.43	10.17	3.91	3.95
Paul Maholm	8	8	4.24			0	170	182	80	13	101	54	1.39	5.35	2.86	3.98
Jeff Samardzija	3	3	4.44			0	75	60	37	6	70	45	1.4	8.4	5.4	4.21
Chris Volstad	8	9	4.29			0	170	187	81	22	114	54	1.42	6.04	2.86	4.43
Casey Coleman	2	2	4.65			0	60	70	31	6	48	31	1.68	7.2	4.65	4.48
Randy Wells	8	8	4.28			0	160	168	76	22	105	53	1.38	5.91	2.98	4.62
James Russell	2	2	4.43			0	65	73	32	12	45	14	1.34	6.23	1.94	4.88
Scott Maine	2	2	5.2			0	45	53	26	7	35	26	1.76	7	5.2	5.35
Andy Sonnanstine	1	1	5.14			0	35	39	20	7	18	11	1.43	4.63	2.83	5.77

2012 Pittsburgh Pirates projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen		575	159	35	6	21	97	85	87	109	7	30	0.277	0.378	0.468	0.846	0.374
Alex Presley		445	132	25	12	8	63	53	28	83	2	20	0.297	0.341	0.461	0.802	0.349
Jose Tabata		520	150	28	3	7	86	43	57	82	5	28	0.288	0.364	0.394	0.758	0.341
Neil Walker		550	153	35	4	12	79	77	50	102	4	7	0.278	0.343	0.422	0.765	0.333
Garrett Jones		460	114	30	1	17	65	62	50	108	2	7	0.248	0.324	0.428	0.752	0.33
Nate McLouth		290	68	14	2	7	38	30	44	58	4	7	0.234	0.343	0.369	0.712	0.321
Casey McGehee		340	87	17	1	10	40	39	29	62	1	0	0.256	0.316	0.4	0.716	0.312
Clint Barmes		425	104	24	1	11	49	47	35	83	6	4	0.245	0.311	0.384	0.695	0.307
Rod Barajas		250	58	11	0	12	28	30	15	54	4	0	0.232	0.286	0.42	0.706	0.305
Pedro Alvarez		500	113	24	2	15	60	54	55	162	3	2	0.226	0.306	0.372	0.678	0.302
Chase D'Arnaud		385	102	16	5	0	36	36	11	92	3	35	0.265	0.291	0.332	0.623	0.29
Josh Harrison		195	53	13	2	1	18	21	3	22	0	4	0.272	0.283	0.374	0.657	0.289
Michael McKenry		200	48	13	0	2	21	19	16	55	0	0	0.24	0.296	0.335	0.631	0.276
Yamaico Navarro		125	28	5	0	2	13	11	10	31	0	0	0.224	0.281	0.312	0.593	0.267

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Joel Hanrahan	2	2	2.85			35	60	52	19	2	64	19	1.18	9.6	2.85	2.43
Chris Leroux	0	0	3.6			0	25	28	10	1	24	10	1.52	8.64	3.6	3
Chris Resop	2	2	3.6			0	60	61	24	6	69	27	1.47	10.35	4.05	3.53
Jason Grilli	2	2	3.75			0	60	50	25	5	66	30	1.33	9.9	4.5	3.71
Erik Bedard	6	5	3.53			0	120	108	47	13	117	45	1.28	8.78	3.38	3.71
Jared Hughes	2	2	2.7			0	60	49	18	6	55	22	1.18	8.25	3.3	3.75
Evan Meek	2	2	3.9			0	60	53	26	4	52	30	1.38	7.8	4.5	3.81
Charlie Morton	7	9	4.42			0	175	198	86	11	115	76	1.57	5.91	3.91	4.11
Daniel Moskos	2	2	4.65			0	60	72	31	4	27	22	1.57	4.05	3.3	4.2
Tony Watson	1	1	4.17			0	41	34	19	5	37	20	1.32	8.12	4.39	4.4
Jeff Karstens	7	8	4.08			0	150	158	68	21	87	34	1.28	5.22	2.04	4.48
James McDonald	7	9	4.32			0	175	178	84	22	148	79	1.47	7.61	4.06	4.48
Brad Lincoln	3	4	4.41			0	100	118	49	11	57	32	1.5	5.13	2.88	4.51
Daniel McCutchen	4	6	4.75			0	110	119	58	12	61	43	1.47	4.99	3.52	4.7
Kevin Correia	7	10	4.61			0	170	187	87	24	102	53	1.41	5.4	2.81	4.7

2012 Houston Astros projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Matt Downs		150	39	13	0	6	19	20	13	34	4	0	0.26	0.335	0.467	0.802	0.351
J.D. Martinez		475	139	31	0	15	68	68	32	101	5	0	0.293	0.344	0.453	0.796	0.345
Carlos Lee		545	147	32	3	18	77	79	47	57	3	4	0.27	0.331	0.439	0.77	0.334
Jordan Schafer		510	140	18	5	4	79	38	53	118	3	35	0.275	0.346	0.353	0.699	0.324
Jason Bourgeois		280	84	9	2	1	31	28	15	30	0	31	0.3	0.336	0.357	0.693	0.323
Jed Lowrie		510	131	27	5	13	63	60	47	96	3	2	0.257	0.323	0.406	0.729	0.319
Jack Cust		175	38	9	0	5	24	19	35	67	1	0	0.217	0.351	0.354	0.705	0.319
Chris Johnson		325	87	19	2	7	35	37	14	83	5	2	0.268	0.308	0.403	0.711	0.309
Brett Wallace		505	126	32	1	8	68	57	53	135	8	1	0.25	0.33	0.364	0.695	0.308
Jose Altuve		535	155	25	2	6	67	52	13	67	5	19	0.29	0.313	0.378	0.69	0.306
Jimmy Paredes		350	87	17	4	5	36	37	20	92	0	12	0.249	0.289	0.363	0.652	0.283
Humberto Quintero		275	66	12	1	3	24	25	7	59	2	1	0.24	0.264	0.324	0.588	0.257

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Wilton Lopez	2	2	3.45			0	60	62	23	5	46	13	1.25	6.9	1.95	3.38
Wandy Rodriguez	11	9	3.47			0	200	190	77	23	178	70	1.3	8.01	3.15	3.94
Sergio Escalona	2	2	3.78			0	50	44	21	5	45	20	1.28	8.1	3.6	3.96
Juan Abreu	2	2	3.75			25	60	58	25	7	71	29	1.45	10.65	4.35	3.98
Bud Norris	10	9	4.01			0	200	193	89	25	194	82	1.38	8.73	3.69	4.09
David Carpenter	2	2	4.05			0	60	62	27	7	64	29	1.52	9.6	4.35	4.16
Brett Myers	10	9	3.83			0	200	204	85	27	153	56	1.3	6.89	2.52	4.21
Lucas Harrell	1	1	4.28			0	40	53	19	3	30	22	1.88	6.75	4.95	4.28
Fernando Rodriguez	2	2	4.2			0	60	59	28	7	66	35	1.57	9.9	5.25	4.3
Brandon Lyon	2	2	4.4			0	45	50	22	5	30	17	1.49	6	3.4	4.39
Wesley Wright	2	2	3.96			0	50	45	22	7	47	23	1.36	8.46	4.14	4.52
Jordan Lyles	7	9	4.32			0	150	171	72	22	107	41	1.41	6.42	2.46	4.54
Enerio Del Rosario	2	2	4.58			0	53	61	27	3	30	30	1.72	5.09	5.09	4.55
J.A. Happ	8	9	4.24			0	170	164	80	21	141	86	1.47	7.46	4.55	4.6
Henry Sosa	2	2	4.5			0	50	51	25	6	36	22	1.46	6.48	3.96	4.7
Aneury Rodriguez	2	2	4.8			0	60	59	32	9	45	23	1.37	6.75	3.45	4.73
Kyle Weiland	5	7	5.7			0	120	144	76	17	64	60	1.7	4.8	4.5	5.61

 

[proshares]

Keith Law's top 100 prospects.

76-100.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

76 Trevor May
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 23, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '11 Level: A (Clearwater)
2011 ranking: 93

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
151.1W
10L
8ERA
3.63


SO
208BB
67H
121HR
8BAA
.221
May's return engagement in the Florida State League went much better than the first go-round, cutting his walk rate nearly in half while striking out 208, a third of the batters he faced. May has above-average velocity at 91-95 mph and his curveball, while still not above-average, at least improved last year. The same applies to his changeup, which is slightly ahead of the curve but still isn't a real weapon for him yet.

The scary aspect of May's success is that he gets a lot of swings-and-misses on the fastball up in the zone, which works in the minors but is harder to pull off in the majors with a higher penalty for failure. He was a pretty severe flyball guy in the FSL, which is a pretty tough league on home runs. May has made strides in becoming more of a pitcher than a thrower, thinking ahead and developing a pitching plan, and the missed bats are a huge positive. He'll just need to work down in the zone or otherwise change eye levels so home runs don't swallow him alive at higher levels.



Rank Player
77 Michael Choice
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 10, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '11 Level: A (Stockton)
2010 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
118AB
467HR
30RBI
82SB
9


SO
134BB
61AVG
.285OBP
.376SLG
.542
Oakland has done a nice job cleaning up Choice's lower half to the point that, while far from quiet, it's at least playable and should allow him to make enough contact for his plus raw power to play. He keeps his weight back better now and has less extraneous leg movement to disrupt his timing. Choice gets good hip rotation and is very strong, top to bottom, so he can drive the ball to all fields.

He did improve his contact rate in the second half, although that could partly be a function of mid-year promotions diluting the talent. He played center last year but will probably end up in left or right, where he should be above average. I think he's a three true outcomes player who'll draw walks, hit 25-35 homers and strike out a lot, but feel more confident in his hit tool today after seeing these mechanical changes than I did a year ago.



Rank Player
78 Jarred Cosart
Age: 21 (DOB: May 25, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Houston Astros
Top '11 Level: AA (Corpus Christi)
2011 ranking: 34

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
144.1W
10L
10ERA
4.12


SO
101BB
56H
131HR
11BAA
.241
Cosart, whom the Astros acquired from the Phillies in the Hunter Pence trade, actually had a good year, but drops in the rankings because more exposure has raised skepticism about his ability to stay healthy as a starter.

His fastball and breaking ball are no-doubters that, in a vacuum, give him a No. 1 starter ceiling; he's 95-98 as a starter with a very hard, 11-to-5 curveball in the mid-70s that can miss bats, as well as a solid-average changeup that might be a little slow relative to the fastball. Cosart's problem stems from a strongly cross-body delivery that gives him some deception but puts stress on his arm, typically the shoulder. Cosart did miss time with a sore shoulder in 2009, and elbow trouble knocked him out for half of 2010 but never required surgery.

The Astros' new regime hasn't had a chance to get their hands on him yet, but I'd expect them to work with him on staying online to the plate and reducing or eliminating that cross-body issue, since he has already had arm trouble. Power reliever isn't a bad downside if Houston can't clean up his delivery, but I'd expect them to exhaust the possibility he's a front-line starter first.



Rank Player
79 Nate Eovaldi
Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 13, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '11 Level: MLB
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
20IP
103W
6L
5ERA
2.62


SO
99BB
46H
76HR
3BAA
.203
Eovaldi was a great find in the 11th round of the 2008 Rule 4 draft, a projectable guy who now has a plus fastball and will flash a plus slider. He'll sit 93-97 mph as a starter, working heavily with the fastball but not locating it quite well enough to put him into a big league rotation yet. His slider varies a lot with its velocity. At 85-87 mph, the slider has some tilt and he can bury it on a left-handed hitter's hands. But when he revs it up to 88-89, it is more like a cutter that breaks almost straight down and isn't that sharp.

He has a changeup but it's a show-me pitch at this point, slow enough out of his hands for hitters to potentially pick it up. He has a hook in the back of his delivery, but once he gets moving he has good leverage from his shoulder tilt and accelerates his arm quickly once he strides.



Rank Player
80 Aaron Hicks
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Center field Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '11 Level: A (Fort Myers)
2011 ranking: 10

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
122AB
443HR
5RBI
38SB
17


SO
110BB
78AVG
.242OBP
.354SLG
.368
It was quite a fall for Hicks, who didn't just fail to perform but didn't look good in not performing, leading many pro scouts to head for the exits. That's bad news for a kid who was in high Class A at age 21 and really wasn't that polished or instinctive (I say this in hindsight) coming out of high school. The one thing Hicks could, and still can, do well is work the count and have good at-bats, but the rest of his game has lagged. His tools are still strong -- he can run and throw and there's power there in BP -- so it's hard to see him developing into less than an average everyday player.

Hicks' main problem is that he doesn't recognize breaking balls well, despite his strong ball-strike recognition. His right-handed swing is much stronger and more balanced than his left-handed swing, but the Twins feel he's making enough progress left-handed to continue hitting from both sides of the plate. I still see a potential star here, since Hicks is the same age as most college seniors, but expectations of fast progress based on his patient approach turned out to be way too optimistic.



Rank Player
81 John Hellweg
Age: 23 (DOB: Oct. 29, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '11 Level: A (Inland Empire)
2010 ranking: Sleeper

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
28IP
89.1W
6L
4ERA
3.73


SO
113BB
59H
75HR
2BAA
.229
Hellweg has always had a huge fastball but couldn't locate anything, walking more than a man an inning from his pro debut until the Angels moved him from the bullpen to the Inland Empire rotation in early June. After the transition, he wasn't exactly Greg Maddux, but his control went from grade-20 to 45, to the point that he's now a real prospect instead of a curiosity. He'll pitch at 97-98 mph with a hard curveball that also misses bats, although his changeup at 91-92 is more like a BP fastball at this point because it doesn't have much action.

He's huge -- 6-foot-9 and 210 pounds -- and despite a fair degree of athleticism has had trouble keeping his delivery in sync, although he's been better at that as a starter, which allows him more time to work it out. He barely pitched at what was then known as Florida Community College, but the Angels took him in the 16th round of the 2008 draft to gamble on his arm strength. And now -- with just 28 walks and 80 punchouts in 63 innings as a starter last year -- they may have found a top-end starter as a result.



Rank Player
82 Matt Davidson
Age: 20 (DOB: March 26, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third base Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '11 Level: AA (Mobile)
2011 ranking: 86

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
535HR
20RBI
106SB
0


SO
147BB
52AVG
.277OBP
.348SLG
.465
Davidson has one of the best-looking right-handed swings in the minors, a swing built for contact but one that generates power because Davidson is so strong up and down and rotates his hips well to get his lower half involved. He's not likely to draw a slew of walks, but his approach is sound and his ability to track the ball and let it travel leads me to think he'll have at least an average walk rate.

Davidson's lower half isn't quick but he has worked himself up to an average glove at third base with plenty of arm, and there is some chance he could even be worth a few runs above average each year with the glove. He's been young for his levels since entering pro ball and will be just 21 all of 2012, starting in Double-A. Even with an average glove, a .280 hitter with 60 walks, 40 doubles and 20-plus homers a year is going to make some All-Star teams as a third baseman.



Rank Player
83 Dellin Betances
Age: 23 (DOB: March 23, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Yankees
Top '11 Level: MLB
2011 ranking: 73

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
126.1W
4L
9ERA
3.70


SO
142BB
70H
102HR
9BAA
.217
At 6-foot-8, 260 pounds, Betances is huge, throws hard and has a history of missing bats since coming back from Tommy John surgery. But there's still a strong sentiment among pro scouts that he ends up in the bullpen long-term because of command questions. He'll pitch in the low 90s but runs it up to 97 mph and would likely sit 94-97, if not better, in relief. The curveball remains wildly inconsistent, with outings when he doesn't have it at all and outings when it looks like an above-average pitch.

Betances is not a good athlete and struggles to maintain a consistent delivery. When he's in sync, he takes a good, long stride to the plate with a mild shoulder tilt but only a little bit of torque from his hips, generating velocity from his stride and arm. He's also a below-average fielder for a pitcher, not a critical flaw but something you'd rather not see. He's 23 now, still not very experienced, but he has size and velocity you can't teach. The lack of progress and athleticism make a bullpen role more likely than a spot in the top half of a rotation.



Rank Player
84 Enny Romero
Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 24, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: A (Bowling Green)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
114W
5L
5ERA
4.26


SO
140BB
68H
104HR
9BAA
.245
The Dominican-born Romero broke out in his full-season debut in 2011, racking up a ton of strikeouts with a plus fastball and an athletic delivery. Romero sits 91-96 mph as a starter, but mostly 93-94, with two above-average secondary pitches in the curveball and changeup. He's athletic with room to fill out his 6-foot-3, 165-pound frame, potentially adding velocity but more likely just becoming more durable.

His main issues, of course, are command and control, walking more than a guy every other inning last year and still generally working on the art of pitching. But if you want a low-minors lefty with the potential to go all Matt Moore in 2012, this is him.



Rank Player
85 Oswaldo Arcia
Age: 20 (DOB: May 9, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Right field Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '11 Level: A (Fort Myers)
2011 ranking: 74

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
81AB
292HR
13RBI
51SB
3


SO
70BB
18AVG
.291OBP
.335SLG
.531
Arcia got off to a terrific start in his full-season debut in 2011, then missed almost eight weeks after surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He turned 20 during the layoff and moved to high Class A after his return, hitting for power but showing his youth in his approach and allergy to the base on balls. Arcia has huge raw power with a classic left-handed swing that should allow him to hit for average as well.

He showed a large platoon split for the second year in a row with better plate discipline and more power against right-handers. He should be above-average in right field between his range and arm if he can stay healthy, but the elbow problem last year followed a knee injury the year before. Staying healthy and working the count are huge for Arcia during the next year or two, but he has middle-of-the-order upside if he can do those two things.



Rank Player
86 Robbie Grossman
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 16, 1989)
Bats: Switch Throws: Left
Position: Outfield Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: A (Bradenton)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
134AB
490HR
13RBI
56SB
24


SO
111BB
104AVG
.294OBP
.418SLG
.531
Signed for $1 million out of high school, Grossman labors to some degree under the label that he was a "tools guy" when, in fact, his game is much more about polish and instincts than raw physical ability. Grossman has an outstanding eye at the plate -- although he was repeating the Florida State League last year -- with the hand-eye coordination and direct path to make hard contact from both sides of the plate.

He's an average runner with good instincts on the bases and should be above-average defensively in either corner outfield spot -- most likely right. He is more of an emergency guy in center. His power ceiling is limited, although he has good hip rotation hitting left-handed. He's most likely a good corner outfielder with OBPs in the high .300s and 15-20 homers a year, with some upside in both of those offensive categories.



Rank Player
87 Mikie Mahtook
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 30, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Center field Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: College (LSU)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 AFL STATS


GM
18AB
68HR
3RBI
14SB
5


SO
16BB
7AVG
.338OBP
.410SLG
.544
Mahtook should have gone higher in the draft but fell to the Rays with the 31st overall pick despite a massive junior year at LSU, when he hit for more power just as power numbers across the country were down. He's a plus runner with an above-average arm who made great strides in his play in center field. I can't see him moving, but if he has to he can certainly handle right.

At the plate, he's a little late getting his front foot down, but he has the hand acceleration and great hip rotation to drive the ball with good extension. He also has solid plate discipline. On top of that, he's a high-energy player with great makeup who leaves no question that he'll get the most out of his tools. And since his tools are pretty good, I like his chances to be an above-average everyday player in the big leagues.



Rank Player
88 Taylor Guerrieri
Age: 19 (DOB: Dec. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: High School
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GMIPWLERA


SOBBHHRBAA
Guerrieri may have had the best raw stuff of any high school pitcher in last year's draft, although there are two kids from Oklahoma who might beg to differ. He also has an easy delivery and smooth, low-effort arm action. Guerrieri would mostly sit 92-97 mph all spring with heavy sink on the pitch, and his curveball has very tight rotation with well-defined break, more than enough to miss bats in low Class A even though he doesn't really command either pitch yet.

He struggles with his landing point and with getting his front foot down consistently and early. Staying on line to better command the ball and developing a third pitch will have to be major developmental goals for him in the next year or two. Guerrieri also faced major questions about his makeup, more off-field than on, that he'll have to resolve to reach his full potential as a pitcher. If he does, there's No. 1 starter ceiling here.



Rank Player
89 Brett Jackson
Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 2, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Center field Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '11 Level: AAA (Iowa)
2011 ranking: Ten who missed

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
115AB
431HR
20RBI
58SB
21


SO
138BB
73AVG
.274OBP
.379SLG
.490
Jackson has solid tools across the board, but they're mitigated by a longstanding problem with contact that really limits his offensive upside. Jackson has some bat speed with very little load, getting his weight settled late and not letting the ball travel that well. So despite his size and athleticism, he doesn't project for more than average power. He's an above-average runner who can handle center field and could be worth five runs a year or so there in a full season, or he could move to left and potentially be plus there.

But he punched out in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances in Triple-A, and only two big leaguers qualified for the batting title in 2011 with that kind of strikeout rate -- Drew Stubbs and Mark Reynolds, who had a combined OBP of .322. If Jackson can't figure out how to make better contact, he's probably a solid-average regular; but he could be a grade better if his hit tool improves.



Rank Player
90 Jedd Gyorko
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 23, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third base Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: AA (San Antonio)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
140AB
576HR
25RBI
114SB
12


SO
114BB
64AVG
.333OBP
.400SLG
.552
Gyorko is tough to love as a prospect because of his body type, especially the thick, slow lower half. The potential of maintaining conditioning will be harder for him than for most other prospects. But he's demonstrated too strong an ability to barrel up the ball to overlook him, even with his deficiencies. He turns his front leg in early without a stride, so there's not much weight transfer and he stays extremely balanced.

He rotates his hips with his swing to keep his timing, yet sacrifices torque and will have to produce more power with his upper half. He has a very strong approach at the plate and is agile for his size, with soft hands that allow him to stay at third base even with a frame that looks made for first. He's probably a solid-average regular with a chance to be a little more because of the hit tool, which should make up for his fringy defense and lack of power.



Rank Player
91 Chad Bettis
Age: 22 (DOB: April 26, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '11 Level: A (Modesto)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
169.2W
12L
5ERA
3.34


SO
184BB
45H
142HR
10BAA
.225
I still think of Bettis as a future reliever, but his performance this year and quality of his off-speed pitches give him a better chance to start than what I saw from him as an amateur. He showed in 2011 that he could maintain his stuff for 100 pitches, with a solid-average fastball, an improved changeup, and a curveball he uses in addition to the hard-biting slider that was his out pitch when he'd relieve at Texas Tech.

In school he tended to get his front side very low and give the hitters a longer look at the ball, but the Rockies have him more upright and hiding the ball better. He can still cut himself off a little, but his command and control were both far better in 2011 than his college delivery or performance would have led you to believe they'd be. Given the multiple weapons and aggressive approach, there's reason to think he can become a No. 4 starter even with very little improvement over what he is today.



Rank Player
92 Jordan Swagerty
Age: 22 (DOB: July 14, 1989)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: AA (Springfield)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
36IP
93.2W
5L
3ERA
1.83


SO
89BB
23H
68HR
4BAA
.204
Swagerty was a two-pitch reliever at Arizona State who became a scouts' favorite for his high-energy style and aggressive approach to attacking hitters. Since then, he has showed four pitches all projecting as average or better and now projects as a potential mid-rotation starter who could always return to the pen if he can't handle the workload. Swagerty sits at 90-94 mph with that same out-pitch breaking ball he showed in college, but his changeup is improving with use and he has the feel to mix up all four offerings, throwing any pitch in any count, all of them for strikes.

He's tall enough to get plane on the fastball, but his frame isn't broad like most workhorse starters', so there's still some skepticism about his ability to handle 180-plus innings, and he'll need to get left-handers out more consistently. He's strong and athletic with feel, and I hate consigning guys with all of that and at least three pitches to the bullpen, especially since that will always be there as a fallback option if starting doesn't work out.



Rank Player
93 Derek Norris
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 14, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '11 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2011 ranking: 33

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
104AB
334HR
20RBI
46SB
13


SO
117BB
77AVG
.210OBP
.367SLG
.446
Norris can catch, throw, hit for power and take a walk. But for two years now he hasn't hit for average in the minors, remaining on the prospect radar primarily because he plays a position at which the bar is so low that any offense at all is welcome. Behind the plate, his hands aren't the softest but they're playable, and he has a plus arm, consistently under 1.9 seconds from home to second. Pitchers in the Arizona Fall League liked throwing to him, and he has always controlled the running game.

He has worked on lessening a hip glide that left him vulnerable to breaking balls moving away from him, showing progress in that department in Arizona. The trade to Oakland gives him a better path to the majors, and I think he'll hit enough -- at least .250 or so -- to let his other skills play and make him at least a solid-average big league catcher, if not more.



Rank Player
94 Christian Bethancourt
Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 2, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '11 Level: A (Lynchburg)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
99AB
387HR
5RBI
53SB
9


SO
62BB
11AVG
.289OBP
.304SLG
.385
Bethancourt can really catch and throw. He was perhaps the best pure defensive catching prospect in full-season ball last year, with enough arm strength that you could easily see him on a mound if he didn't play the toughest position on the diamond. Behind the plate, he's everything you want in a catching prospect, from soft hands to arm strength to accuracy, and pitchers like working with him.

It's a long swing starting with a near arm-bar and a hip leak that gives him trouble with off-speed stuff, but he's strong enough and gets his hips rotated enough to show you plus-power in BP. I don't know if he'll hit, but he's here because if he hits even a little bit, the other tools make him an everyday player.



Rank Player
95 Javier Baez
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '11 Level: A (Boise)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
5AB
18HR
0RBI
1SB
2


SO
4BB
0AVG
.278OBP
.278SLG
.389
Baez became a top-10 pick largely on the strength of an explosive bat that produces plus power and very loud, hard contact. But he's a better athlete than he's given credit for with very strong instincts on both sides of the ball. He does have a hard time keeping that swing under control, with a tendency to overswing even though he naturally produces power through torque from his hips. His hand acceleration produces tremendous bat speed and he's an average or better runner.

He has the feel for defense and arm strength to play almost any position -- he even caught a little in high school and looked good doing so -- meaning the only questions about him at shortstop are whether he'll outgrow the position and whether he'll put in the work to become an above-average fielder there. If not, third base is an obvious next stop, while he could handle second or, at the absolute worst, right field. If he can cut the swing down when he's not in a fastball count, he has All-Star potential at any infield position.



Rank Player
96 Aaron Sanchez
Age: 19 (DOB: July 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: A (Lansing)
2011 ranking: 99

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
14IP
54.1W
3L
3ERA
5.30


SO
56BB
26H
53HR
4BAA
.255
It wasn't quite the pro debut I'd expected from Sanchez, but after struggling with his control in his first two outings, he implemented an adjustment at Toronto's instruction to keep his front side more closed and produced much better results for the rest of the summer. Sanchez topped out in the mid-90s in just about every start, with an average curveball in the upper-70s and an improving changeup. His arm action is clean and easy, and his body is very projectable, so he could easily sit in the mid-90s in a few years once his body has matured.

He'll need to refine the off-speed pitches and improve his command, which still needs work even with his delivery more on line to the plate. Sanchez, control artist Justin Nicolino and hard-throwing Noah Syndergaard should all start 2012 in Lansing in what will be one of the minors' best prospect rotations, with all three guys strong candidates for next year's list.



Rank Player
97 Addison Reed
Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 27, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Chicago White Sox
Top '11 Level: MLB
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
43IP
78.1W
2L
1ERA
1.26


SO
111BB
14H
43HR
3BAA
.157
Reed was a solid college starter at San Diego State with an average fastball and no projection who suddenly started throwing 95-99 mph when the White Sox moved him to the bullpen last year. Between that pitch and a wipeout slider that became harder and sharper when he moved to relief, he raced through the minors and ended up in the big leagues, showing the the White Sox enough to make them feel comfortable trading closer Sergio Santos (for about 50 cents on the dollar, as it turns out).

Reed's lack of a usable changeup always gave him trouble against left-handed hitters in college, and that and some delivery flaws make a return to the rotation very unlikely. But he could have immediate impact in relief because he can dominate right-handed bats with the stuff he has right now.



Rank Player
98 Randall Delgado
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 9, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '11 Level: MLB
2011 ranking: 50

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
139W
7L
7ERA
1.83


SO
135BB
57H
135HR
15BAA
.255
One thing that became clear during the 2011 season about Atlanta's troika of top pitching prospects is that Delgado, while a strong prospect in his own right, didn't belong in the same discussion as Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino. He didn't possess Teheran's stuff and projection, or Vizcaino's control and plus breaking ball. While those two arms progressed last year, Delgado remains as he was, with a solid-average fastball that will touch 96 mph and an above-average changeup that won't miss enough bats on its own, especially without another pitch to move away from right-handed hitters and keep them honest.

He is still projectable with a loose arm, but the upside of his two system-mates hasn't rubbed off on him. There's a good enough chance that Delgado ends up in the bullpen because of the lack of a third pitch to drop him a level on these rankings, as he's more like a No. 3 or a No. 4 in a rotation or a setup man if he goes to the pen.



Rank Player
99 Neil Ramirez
Age: 22 (DOB: May 25, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '11 Level: AAA (Round Rock)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
98W
5L
3ERA
3.12


SO
119BB
44H
77HR
7BAA
.215
Ramirez took a huge step forward in 2011 that was short-circuited temporarily by some shoulder trouble that cropped up in mid-summer. He'll sit 93-94 mph when fully healthy and reached 97 in big league camp last spring with a plus curveball and solid-average changeup. When he had the chance to jump up to Triple-A for a spot start midyear, he threw well enough that Texas decided to leave him there the rest of the year.

He has cleaned up his delivery substantially since high school, with a slightly long but smoother arm swing that puts less stress on his shoulder and none of the former cross-body action that plagued him before he signed. He seemed fully recovered in the Arizona Fall League, and with a full, healthy season he would be a top 50-60 prospect if he's not already in the majors by then.



Rank Player
100 Blake Swihart
Age: 19 (DOB: April 3, 1992)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '11 Level: Rookie (Gulf Coast)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GMABHRRBISB


SOBBAVGOBPSLG
Swihart is raw on both sides of the ball but extremely athletic with the bat speed and arm strength to profile as a potential All-Star at a number of skill positions. As a hitter, he can get out on his front foot early and doesn't finish rotating his hips to produce the power his swing should allow, but the bat speed is there and he has a decent feel for the strike zone. As a catcher, he can throw and has already improved his release time since signing with Boston.

Having played a number of positions in high school, Swihart needs to work on receiving and game-calling. Given time and regular reps behind the plate, he could be similar to Matt Wieters, a switch-hitting catcher (perhaps with less power) who can add value through catching and throwing. If he has to move to another position, such as third base, he could still end up an above-average big leaguer but would obviously lose a good bit of his value.

51-75.

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51 James Paxton
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 6, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: Double-A (Jackson)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
17IP
95W
6L
3ERA
2.37


SO
131BB
43H
73HR
3BAA
.215
Paxton, who played his college ball at Kentucky, was a top-10 talent in the 2009 draft, but didn't sign with Toronto after it took him in the sandwich round. His plan was to boost his stock with another season of college ball, but he was ruled ineligible for the 2010 season after the NCAA found him in violation of the "no-agent rule." He ended up going to Seattle as a fourth-round pick in 2010, and didn't make his pro debut until 2011.

He was dominant enough in low Class A that the Mariners jumped him two levels to Double-A, which was more appropriate given his age and experience in the SEC, and he was even more dominant after the promotion. Paxton's arm action looks long but he repeats it well and gets good angle on the fastball and breaking ball, working in the low 90s and touching 96 mph, with a much-improved changeup since his amateur days.

He hasn't thrown a ton of innings over the last few years because of the NCAA ruling that forced him to leave school, so the M's will have to work to build up his arm strength, but with the improvements in his command and changeup he looks like a potential No. 2 in a big league rotation who'll rack up a lot of strikeouts.



Rank Player
52 Mike Montgomery
Age: 22 (DOB: July 1, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: AAA (Omaha)
2011 ranking: 28

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
28IP
150.2W
5L
11ERA
5.32


SO
129BB
69H
157HR
15BAA
.271
Heading into last season Montgomery looked poised to step into the Royals' rotation by the second half of 2011, but struggles with his delivery -- and, as a result, his command -- resulted in a disappointing year in Triple-A, a level for which he was still quite young.

The good news for Kansas City fans is that Montgomery's stuff was intact, still sitting 92-95 mph and running up to 96-97 with good downhill plane. He uses his changeup as his out pitch, with excellent arm speed and the ability to command it to both sides of the plate, but his slurvy breaking ball may not be more than a solid-average pitch going forward. He's had elbow issues in the past, but was healthy all of 2011, and while his ERA didn't improve in the second half, his walk rate dropped by about 40 percent.

He's 22, left-handed, with two plus pitches and experience up to Triple-A; he might need to go back to Omaha for a few months but should still at least end up in the middle of a big league rotation.



Rank Player
53 Oscar Taveras
Age: 19 (DOB: June 19, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: A (Quad Cities)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
78AB
308HR
8RBI
62SB
1


SO
52BB
32AVG
.386OBP
.444SLG
.584
Taveras played a little over half a season in the Midwest League, and led the league in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging with a very high contact rate despite a crazy swing.

He loads his hands high and deep, keeping them steady as he starts his stride, even letting them drift higher before he starts his hands -- but his hand acceleration is explosive. He's very rotational, and likes to get his arms fully extended no matter where the ball is, which should leave him vulnerable on the inner half and will make it harder for him to make adjustments. He can end up off balance from the force of the swing, and max-effort swings like this are rare in the big leagues; however, hand-eye coordination like Taveras' is pretty rare, and the fact that he makes so much contact, most of it hard, is a huge positive. He's a potential middle-of-the-order bat with some defensive value in right.



Rank Player
54 Daniel Corcino
Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 26, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '11 Level: A (Dayton)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
139.1W
11L
7ERA
3.42


SO
156BB
34H
128HR
10BAA
.238
Corcino, who's listed at 5-11, 165 pounds, isn't big -- he gets both physical and stuff comparisons to Johnny Cueto -- but he dominated the Midwest League and has been a frequent target for other clubs talking trades with the Reds.

He will work from 92 to 96 mph with a plus changeup and a very aggressive approach with both pitches; he still needs to refine his breaking ball, which is where the Cueto comparison breaks down, but if that pitch comes this year Corcino could move just as quickly through the higher levels.

It was a funny year -- he was lit up in his first two starts in Dayton and his final one, but posted a 2.62 ERA in between, with 146 strikeouts and 29 walks in 127 innings. His arm is extremely quick, but there's some effort from a slot just below three-quarters, and because he lands on the first-base side of the rubber he comes across his body a little bit.

His command, aggressiveness and two plus pitches really set him apart, and he could probably handle a jump to Double-A, which would allow him to avoid the hitters' haven of Bakersfield, Cincy's high Class A affiliate.



Rank Player
55 Gary Sanchez
Age: 19 (DOB: Dec. 2, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: New York Yankees
Top '11 Level: A (Charleston)
2011 ranking: 68

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
82AB
301HR
17RBI
52SB
2


SO
93BB
36AVG
.256OBP
.335SLG
.485
Sanchez's first full year in pro ball had major positives and negatives -- the bat is more advanced than anyone thought, and the glove is less so.

He can really hit with present above-average power and projects to hit 30 to 35 homers a year down the road, having demonstrated a solid approach for an 18-year-old in full-season ball. Sanchez's priority is working on his bat, and his glove has lagged; he has arm strength, and has a better chance to remain a catcher than former Yankees prospect Jesus Montero, but Sanchez's receiving was terrible last year and he'll need to spend more time working on all aspects of his defense besides throwing. Sanchez's immaturity showed up publicly last year, as he was suspended for attitude issues, and while we can forgive him his youth, if it's affecting his play on the field, it affects his outlook until he matures.

He could be a star, the worthy successor to Jorge Posada, if he puts the effort into learning his craft behind the plate.



Rank Player
56 Jonathan Schoop
Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 16, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Infield Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '11 Level: A (Frederick)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
128AB
511HR
13RBI
71SB
12


SO
76BB
42AVG
.290OBP
.349SLG
.432
Schoop (pronounced "skope," which rhymes with "Knope 2012") is a future power hitter in search of a permanent position, spending time last year at third base, shortstop and eventually second base after a surprise promotion to high Class A at age 19.

He gets great extension through the zone, controlling the bat head well, with a balanced, rotational swing that should produce power as he matures. He's a below-average runner who was signed as a shortstop but is likely to outgrow the position; he has the arm for third base and the bat profiles there, so the question is whether the Orioles want to push him to second base for more upside while risking injury. I'd leave him at third and let him focus on hitting, which he does quite well.

An interesting quirk in his stats after the promotion to high-A: He went homerless and hit just .218/.290/.259 in his first 38 games there, but hit .322/.368/.487 with five homers afterwards. That's a sign he knows how to make adjustments.



Rank Player
57 Nick Franklin
Age: 20 (DOB: Mar. 2, 1991)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: AA (Jackson)
2011 ranking: 53

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
88AB
352HR
7RBI
26SB
18


SO
80BB
37AVG
.281OBP
.352SLG
.418
Franklin's season was ruined by factors not likely to affect his long-term development other than the at-bats he lost to injury and illness.

He's a switch-hitter whose right-handed swing is prettier, but he is a much better hitter left-handed -- hitting, power and patience -- despite the fact that he overstrides badly and his back side tends to collapse. He's a good athlete with the arm to handle short; his feet aren't ideal for the position but he has the instincts to handle it in the majors, and so far he's shown he can make all of the critical plays. He's a high-energy player who gets great marks for on-field makeup and aptitude, and if he can avoid the infirmary -- his 2011 was marred by a broken jaw, food poisoning and mono -- he shouldn't lose too much from the half-season off.

If he eventually has to move to second base he still has the ability to be an above-average regular there. At short he has a better chance to be a star because the baseline for that position is so low.



Rank Player
58 Taylor Jungmann
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 18, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '11 Level: College (Texas)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 COLLEGE STATS


GM
19IP
141W
13L
3ERA
1.60


SO
126BB
36H
81HR
4BAA
.165
Jungmann doesn't have the high ceiling of many of the names on this list, but is a very high-probability mid-rotation starter because of his command and relative lack of effort in his delivery.

He can sit 91-93 mph but go back for 94-95 whenever he wants it, and he pairs it with a hammer curveball at 75-78 with two-plane break, as well as a hard changeup he rarely used in college. He's a strike-thrower who commands the ball to both sides of the plate, including the breaking ball. He comes across his body slightly because he starts on the extreme third-base side of the rubber, but lands on line to the plate as if he'd started in the center. The Brewers selected him 12th overall in last June's draft, but a few teams weren't on him as a first-rounder because of some head violence in his delivery after he releases the ball, which might not be great for his health but is late enough that it doesn't affect his command. Jungmann doesn't use his lower half as much as most power pitchers, and lengthening his stride might add a little velocity.

He profiles as a solid No. 3 starter with a chance to pitch above that because he pounds the zone and is aggressive within it.



Rank Player
59 Anthony Gose
Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Center field Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: AA (New Hampshire)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
137AB
509HR
16RBI
59SB
70


SO
154BB
62AVG
.253OBP
.349SLG
.415
Gose isn't a finished product, but he has made enormous strides in the 18 months since Toronto acquired him from Philadelphia by way of Houston, and is young enough that forecasting additional growth for him makes sense.

He is a 70 runner with an 80 arm who can run everything down in center field. In high school he was all tools and had no clue as a hitter -- he was an uncoordinated hacker with no consistency to his stance or weight transfer. Now Gose stays back better and repeats his swing in a way he couldn't before, resulting in higher-quality contact and the chance for average power. His two-strike approach still needs work -- because it doesn't really exist -- and the Blue Jays want to have him work more on shooting the ball to left and even on bunting for hits to make use of his speed.

His defense alone makes him a big leaguer, and even a modest improvement in the two-strike approach makes him a regular, with an All-Star ceiling if he continues to make these large adjustments.



Rank Player
60 George Springer
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 19, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Houston Astros
Top '11 Level: A (Tri-City)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
8AB
28HR
1RBI
3SB
4


SO
2BB
2AVG
.179OBP
.303SLG
.393
Springer -- whom the Astros took with the 11th pick last June -- was one of the toolsiest college position players I've ever come across, with a solid idea of what he was doing at the plate, sliding out of the top 10 only because of questions about his swing mechanics.

The UConn product is an outstanding athlete, an above-average runner with a plus arm and plus raw power. He has tremendous bat speed and can turn on good velocity, with a history of running deep counts although without much of a two-strike approach. For some reason, he started swinging uphill this spring, collapsing his back side in the process and reducing the quality of his contact and leading to concerns that he'll swing and miss too much in pro ball. Perhaps it was "draftitis," trying to hit more home runs to improve his stock, but it's a bad habit and not an easy one to break.

If he gets back to where he was a year ago, Houston got a steal, an impact hitter who hits for power, gets on base, and adds value through right-field defense.



Rank Player
61 Allen Webster
Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '11 Level: AA (Chattanooga)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
145W
11L
5ERA
4.03


SO
135BB
57H
147HR
9BAA
.265
Webster is a converted shortstop who barely pitched in high school but has separated himself from the Dodgers' crop of high-ceiling arms with a great changeup and pretty good feel for pitching for a former position player.

He has excellent arm action and gets on top of the ball well to get sink on his fastball and great deception on a plus-plus changeup, meaning he gets ground balls and has no platoon split to worry about. His slider and curve are both fringe-average at the moment, and his velocity is also solid-average at 90-94, although he'll run it up to 98 from time to time. He's a good athlete who handles his position well and could gain a grade on the fastball if he fills out a little more.

Webster needs repetitions more than anything else, to help refine his command and develop one or both breaking balls, but the sink and the one plus secondary pitch give him a mid-rotation ceiling now with the chance for more.



Rank Player
62 Xander Bogaerts
Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '11 Level: A (Greenville)
2011 ranking: Sleeper

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
72AB
265HR
16RBI
45SB
1


SO
71BB
25AVG
.260OBP
.324SLG
.509
The Red Sox were aggressive with the Aruban-born Bogaerts, promoting him from the Dominican Summer League right to full-season ball, where only Jurickson Profar and Bryce Harper were younger among regular position players. But Bogaerts held his own due to excellent bat speed and enough pitch recognition to keep himself afloat. He starts out very wide at the plate and closes slightly when he gets his front foot down. The ball really comes off his bat well, thanks to strong wrists and forearms and a very rotational swing with great extension through contact.

He spent the year at shortstop, making an error every three games, but isn't likely to stay there with third base the probable destination. He has the arm and feet for it, assuming he does indeed outgrow shortstop. Boston's system is thin right now, with several prospects who project as solid regulars but nothing more. Bogaerts is the Red Sox's best chance right now to produce an All-Star.



Rank Player
63 Chris Archer
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 6, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: AAA (Durham)
2011 ranking: 40

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
147.1W
9L
7ERA
4.09


SO
130BB
86H
147HR
11BAA
.263
Archer's numbers were less than sterling last year, but the stuff and athleticism are intact and some adjustments he made late in the year give some hope that he'll return to form in 2012.

His fastball still sits at 93-95 mph as a starter, but he became overreliant on his very sharp slider last year rather than working to set hitters up and get to counts where it would be most effective. He's touched 97 and his slider, which can be toxic, has hit 89, so he can miss bats in some role. He is an extremely athletic pitcher whose arm works well, with the downside of a dominant two-pitch reliever. He still has that No. 2 starter upside, but he's not out of the prospect danger zone yet and it wouldn't be inappropriate to project him as a closer.



Rank Player
64 Billy Hamilton
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 9, 1990)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '11 Level: A (Dayton)
2011 ranking: 51

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
550HR
3RBI
50SB
103


SO
133BB
52AVG
.278OBP
.340SLG
.360
Hamilton's run grade isn't just an 8 -- it goes to 11. After minor arms trouble limited him in 2010, he stayed healthy for a full season in 2011 and had an incredible 103 stolen bases in 135 games.

He improved over the course of the season as he made adjustments and the weather warmed up. He's a natural right-handed hitter, but was better from the left side in 2011, laying off high fastballs that he previously would just pop up; as a left-handed hitter he's a half-step closer to first and could rack up a mess of infield hits just by bunting or shooting the ball to the left side. He has well below-average power and probably won't ever reach the average mark, and while he has the feet and speed for shortstop, he throws from a low slot that isn't ideal for the longer throw from that side of second base.

He has game-changing speed, however, and a .312/.382/.387 second half with a much better contact rate gives hope that he'll come out strongly in the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2012.



Rank Player
65 Yasmani Grandal
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 8, 198
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: AAA (Louisville)
2011 ranking: 59

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
105AB
374HR
14RBI
68SB
0


SO
97BB
59AVG
.305OBP
.401SLG
.500
I see two potential outcomes for Grandal without much chance he falls in between the two: He's either an All-Star catcher, or a fringy backup who can't receive well enough to play every day but whose bat doesn't profile at first.

Grandal's left-handed swing has better bat speed and more loft than his right-handed swing, which, while playable, is going to produce sizable platoon splits against better pitching, particularly in the power department. The big disappointment with Grandal last year was his receiving; he was always considered a plus defensive catcher in college because of his arm, accuracy and game-calling experience, but he struggled throughout the year and in the Arizona Fall League to catch better velocity he hadn't had to catch as an amateur. He is a disciplined hitter with patience and a good eye, again better from the left side than from the right, and earns high marks for his overall feel for the game.

If the receiving problems were an aberration, he was an outstanding pickup for the Padres -- who got him in the Mat Latos deal -- and perhaps that blip is what made him available. Unfortunately the downside, if they weren't an aberration, is substantial.



Rank Player
66 Zack Cox
Age: 22 (DOB: May 9, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third base Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: AA (Springfield)
2011 ranking: 72

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
516HR
13RBI
68SB
2


SO
98BB
40AVG
.306OBP
.363SLG
.434
Cox went through two levels in 2011, struggling in his first month at each level and then exploding afterwards, hitting for average and power, walking more and striking out less, and generally showing the ability to make adjustments on the fly.

He's cleaned up his swing and keeps his head steady, much like he did as an underclassman at Arkansas, so pitchers can't bust him inside as easily. He'll show above-average raw power in BP, but so far it's not translating to games, at least partly because he focuses on using the whole field and doesn't try to turn on pitches on the inner half. At third base, he'll never be above-average but should be adequate; many of his miscues last year came on popups, of all things, and he does have a plus arm. He did show a platoon split all season -- all 13 of his homers last year came against righties -- and he still has to work on defense and getting that power to play after the game starts.

There's a potential above-average regular here who'll hit for average and power, but if he has to move to first base he'll be off this list.



Rank Player
67 Josh Bell
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 14, 1992)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: Prep (Dallas Jesuit)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 HIGH SCHOOL STATS


GM
44AB
NAHR
14RBI
55SB
19


SO
NABB
NAAVG
.552OBP
.687SLG
1.073
One of the most exciting high school hitters in last year's draft -- which, for all its strengths, wasn't great for prep bats -- Bell stunned the industry by taking a $5 million signing bonus from the Pirates after claiming before the draft that he wasn't signing at any price and was headed to the University of Texas.

As a left-handed hitter, Bell reminds me of Jason Heyward (before the shoulder injury), with leverage for all-fields power and unusual hand acceleration that allows him to let the ball travel deeper before he commits to a swing. His right-handed swing isn't as quick or smooth, and he's probably a left fielder due to below-average run and arm tools. But the bat, while a few years off, has the ceiling of an All-Star even at an offense-first position, with power, average and the promise at least of some patience as well.



Rank Player
68 Gary Brown
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 28, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: San Francisco
Top '11 Level: A (San Jose)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
131AB
559HR
14RBI
80SB
53


SO
77BB
46AVG
.336OBP
.407SLG
.519
Brown is at least a 70 runner who covers a ton of ground in center field and profiles as an above-average regular in the big leagues because of the value he'll add on defense.

He is one of the fastest right-handed hitters I've ever clocked from home to first -- the fastest is the prospect at the top of this list -- and his hands are very quick, allowing him to stay inside the ball well. But his swing is very linear and he doesn't let the ball travel, so there's not much present or future power here. And while he makes a ton of contact he's never been a high-walk guy to potentially generate .400 OBPs.

He'll probably end up cast as a leadoff type because of his speed, but I see more of a .300 hitter without great secondary skills who saves 10 runs a year with his glove in center.



Rank Player
69 Yonder Alonso
Age: 24 (DOB: Apr. 8, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: First base Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: Majors (Reds)
2011 ranking: 65

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
91AB
358HR
12RBI
56SB
6


SO
60BB
46AVG
.296OBP
.374SLG
.486
Alonso's power hasn't bounced back all the way from a broken hamate bone he suffered in July 2009, but I still think he's at least a 20-to-25 homer guy who profiles as an average to above-average first baseman in the long run.

He has good balance at the plate with plenty of hip rotation to drive the ball, but his bat speed is just solid-average and until 2011 he had never hit left-handed pitching well. His .330/.398/.585 line in his brief big league call-up isn't indicative of how he'll perform in the short term, especially since he barely saw any left-handed pitching, but he could end up a .280/.360/.500 guy going forward. He's an adequate defender at first who should never be allowed to try left field again.

He was blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati, but was sent to San Diego this winter as part of the Mat Latos deal, and he should be the Padres' first baseman on Opening Day. Assuming Petco doesn't flatten him, he's got enough bat to have value at first base, but won't be a star unless he finds more power than expected or closes his platoon split.



Rank Player
70 Garrett Richards
Age: 23 (DOB: May. 27, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '11 Level: Majors (Angels)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
143W
12L
2ERA
3.15


SO
103BB
40H
123HR
10BAA
.233
Richards' wildness in college has disappeared since the Angels took him 42nd overall in the 2009 draft out of Oklahoma, pushing him to a major league debut in just his second full year in pro ball.

He works with a 70 fastball as a starter, pitching at 94-100 mph, with an inconsistent, short, 84-87 mph slider that ranges from solid-average to plus, and some feel for a changeup. He holds his velocity deep into games and works in the lower half of the zone to generate some ground balls. The changeup is solid-average, without much action but with good arm speed. Richards' arm is loose and easy, with the path a little long but with nothing to prevent him from working as a starter. It's not clear why a guy with this kind of stuff doesn't generate more strikeouts, and the low ERA in the minors last season was at least partly a function of a very pitcher-friendly home park at Double-A Arkansas.

He has No. 2 starter stuff, but may be a backend guy if he can't rack up more strikeouts.



Rank Player
71 Jake Odorizzi
Age: 21 (DOB: March 27, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: AA (Northwest Arkansas)
2011 ranking: Ten who missed

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
147W
10L
7ERA
3.73


SO
157BB
44H
134HR
17BAA
.244
Odorizzi came over to Kansas City in the Zack Greinke trade and fits the Casey Kelly/Zach Lee mold of a supreme athlete with a pretty delivery but doesn't miss enough bats with his secondary stuff, at least not yet. His real calling card is his command, especially of the fastball, which is key because his velocity is typically in the low 90s, not the 95-96 range where his command wouldn't have to be as fine. The lack of life on the pitch really hurt him in AA, where he became fly ball- and homer-prone. He's still throwing both a curve and slider; it's a curveball arm slot, but his curve is on the slow side while the slider gives him something to get under a left-handed hitter's hands.

Neither is an above-average pitch for him yet, and he may be better off choosing one and scrapping the other. He does have a solid-average changeup with good feel for the pitch, and the delivery is smooth and easy to repeat with minimal effort. He has a No. 2/3 ceiling but has to make one of two adjustments to get there -- either he learns to work down in the zone with the fastball or one of the breaking balls develops to the point where it misses bats.



Rank Player
72 Starling Marte
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 9, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Center field Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: AA (Altoona)
2010 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
129AB
536HR
12RBI
50SB
24


SO
100BB
22AVG
.332OBP
.370SLG
.500
Marte has tremendous tools and has moved aggressively through Pittsburgh's system despite a real lack of polish at the plate that makes him a very high-beta prospect. He could end up a 60 (occasional All-Star), and he could end up a 45 (fourth outfielder), without a whole lot of in between. At the plate, Marte has quick wrists and can hit a good fastball, but he has no stride and limited weight transfer. His hips glide forward, but he is very rotational with good extension, so getting his legs involved could produce above-average power.

He's a plus runner but not a good instinctive baserunner yet, in line with his lack of discipline at the plate. His 19 unintentional walks last year represented a career best for Marte in a single season, giving him 44 in more than 1,100 plate appearances since he came to the U.S. Word is that the Pirates and Royals have been discussing a merger not just of franchises, but of players, led by hybrid center fielder Bubba Starling Marte, a player so talented that even his tools would have tools. If that falls through, the Pirates might have a successor to Andrew McCutchen, or just a maddening bench guy who looks like he should be a star.



Rank Player
73 Sonny Gray
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 7, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '11 Level: AA (Midland)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
6IP
22W
1L
1ERA
0.82


SO
20BB
6H
19HR
0BAA
.241
Gray was a controversial guy in last year's draft given his certain first-round status, with some clubs seeing a sub-6-foot right-hander who projected as a closer. But others -- including Oakland -- saw plus makeup and an aggressive starter with three weapons including a hammer curveball that will miss big league bats. I incline toward the latter view, as starters who can pitch at 91-94 and dial up more when needed with that kind of curveball and a pretty good split-like changeup are hard to find.

The concerns I have on Gray are that there's some effort in his delivery, with late elbow pronation, and his fastball doesn't have much plane because he's not that tall. However, his velocity comes mostly from a big stride toward the plate, not from his upper half. As for plane, he does try to work down in the zone and had a strong ground-ball rate in his brief time in AA.

It was a tiny sample, but he faced 70 batters for Midland and gave up just one extra-base hit. I understand why scouts see him as a reliever, but there's plenty of chance here for him to be not just a starter, but a good one in the top three spots in a rotation, and I wouldn't bet against a competitor like Gray.



Rank Player
74 Tyrell Jenkins
Age: 19 (DOB: July 20, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: Rookie (Johnson City)
2011 ranking: Sleeper

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
11IP
56W
4L
2ERA
3.86


SO
55BB
13H
63HR
3BAA
.296
Jenkins was a three-sport star in high school who turned down a commitment to Baylor in favor of the long road to the majors (and a $1.3 million bonus) that could culminate in a spot at or near the top of a rotation. Jenkins is, as you'd imagine, extremely athletic, but had less baseball experience than the typical U.S. high school pitching prospect. So the Cardinals have taken it slowly with him, holding off his full-season debut until this upcoming season. He'll pitch in the low 90s but can touch 96-97. His curveball is already above-average, and the changeup has developed substantially in his year-plus in St. Louis' system.

Jenkins' control is solid -- he never walked more than two men in any of his 11 outings last year -- but his command is still a work in progress as the Cardinals work with him on consistency in his delivery. He has a high leg kick and stays online to the plate, getting good extension out front that gives the hitter even less time than normal to pick up the pitch. He's also a strong competitor who is willing to mix all his pitches and won't back off a pitch if he makes a mistake with it. He's not polished enough yet to be in the top third of this list, but a full season of pitching and the progress that should come with it would make him one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.



Rank Player
75 Mike Olt
Age: 23 (DOB: Aug. 27, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third base Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '11 Level: A (Myrtle Beach)
2010 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
73AB
254HR
15RBI
46SB
0


SO
75BB
49AVG
.264OBP
.381SLG
.500
A potentially plus defender at third with plus raw power, Olt has seen the ball much better as a pro than he did as an amateur, resulting in better-than-expected plate discipline that gives him a chance to be at least an average regular at third. Olt can launch balls in BP, but his approach is now less pull-happy than it was in college, with very good bat speed and great extension on his follow-through for power to left and the ability to use the middle of the field.

He missed two months this summer with a broken collarbone, but was 100 percent again for fall league and led the AFL in home runs (helped by a very homer-friendly ballpark). His contact rates probably won't ever be great, but even an average hit tool with plus power and defense at third makes for a fringe star.

26-50.

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26 Nolan Arenado
Age: 20 (DOB: April 16, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '11 Level: A (Modesto)
2011 ranking: 92

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
134AB
517HR
20RBI
122SB
2


SO
53BB
47AVG
.298OBP
.349SLG
.487
Arenado improved his game across the board in 2011. He has a great, simple swing, short to the ball with good pitch recognition, leading to very high contact rates throughout his pro career. The Cal League is generally a hitters' league, but the best hitters' parks are in the southern division (Modesto is in the north), and it's historically a great league for strikeouts, making Arenado's rate in 2011, just over 9 percent, even more amazing.

This year he rotated his hips a little more, improving his power potential, and still extended his arms very well through contact. On defense, where he was once likely to move to first base (or even to catcher) despite good hands and arm strength, Arenado is now likely to stay at third, thanks to improvements to his footwork and his own efforts to maximize his agility despite heavy feet. In a neutral park, Arenado would project as at least a 20-25 homer guy with a high batting average as well as at least solid-average defense at third. You may adjust your expectations in Coors accordingly.



Rank Player
27 Zack Wheeler
Age: 21 (DOB: May 30, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Mets
Top '11 Level: A (St. Lucie)
2011 ranking: 36

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
115W
9L
7ERA
3.52


SO
129BB
52H
100HR
7BAA
.231
Wheeler was stolen from the Giants for two months of Carlos Beltran's services in a deadline deal that should benefit the Mets for much of this decade.

He will touch 97 mph and sit at least 91-94 with an above-average curveball that has shown it can miss bats. He has a fringy changeup that's a little too firm, giving up a .283/.375/.452 line to left-handed hitters as a result (although that improved after the trade in a small sample). His control is still below-average, and he'll have to show durability to match his frame, as he retired more than 18 batters just twice all year.



Rank Player
28 Miguel Sano
Age: 18 (DOB: May 11, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '11 Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
2011 ranking: 29

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
66AB
267HR
20RBI
59SB
5


SO
77BB
23AVG
.292OBP
.352SLG
.637
One thing is certain about Miguel Sano: when he makes contact, he can mash, hitting .411 and slugging .895 last year in at-bats when he didn't strike out. He has outstanding bat speed and good balance at the plate, and he may have grade-70 or 80 power when all is said and done.

He's got a plus arm and has improved at third base to the point where footwork won't hold him back. Sano's main issues are his size and his plate discipline. He's already about 230 pounds, and if he gets any bigger, he'll have to move off of third base; he's athletic for his size, but may just outgrow the position despite his best efforts. His recognition of off-speed stuff isn't great, and his contact rates aren't either. The good news is that he won't turn 19 until May, and there's plenty of time for him to improve in that department. His bat should play at any position; at third base, he's a superstar, and maybe he still will be at first, with 35-plus homer potential if he can make enough contact to get to it.



Rank Player
29 Jacob Turner
Age: 20 (DOB: May 21, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '11 Level: Majors (Tigers)
2011 ranking: 22

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
20IP
131W
4L
5ERA
3.44


SO
110BB
35H
117HR
10BAA
.238
Turner took a small step backward in 2011, but remains the Tigers' best prospect and the only potential impact starter in their system.

He'll show the upper 90s occasionally but still works mostly at 89-95 mph. His fastball has some life but is mostly up in the zone, resulting in more contact than you'd expect from his velocity. His curveball, 79-83, is hard and breaks down very sharply to change hitters' eye levels and get those swings and misses he's not getting yet on the fastball. His changeup remains very hard and he doesn't command the pitch as well as he commands the other two offerings.

Turner won't turn 21 until May and still has the lightning-fast arm that made him an elite prospect in the first place. He's nearly a full season removed from forearm tightness that limited his workload in 2010, and there's a potential top-end starter in here, but he's got more work to do to reach that point than I thought at this time last season.



Rank Player
30 Danny Hultzen
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: AFL (Peoria)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 AFL STATS


GM
6IP
19.1W
1L
0ERA
1.40


SO
18BB
5H
16HR
1BAA
.225
Hultzen was the highest-probability college arm in the 2011 Rule 4 draft, and went second overall on that basis despite lacking the ceiling of pitchers I ranked ahead of him, including Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, and Archie Bradley.

The University of Virginia product will probably pitch with average velocity when he's working every fifth day in pro ball, although he's touched 94 in the past, but the separator for him is his ability to locate the pitch. His best pitch is a changeup, usually above-average if not better, but the pitch wasn't working for him in the Arizona Fall League after a four-month layoff. His slider was fringy all spring but a little sharper in the fall; his command is his main calling card, but he's smart enough to be able to compete on days he's not locating that well. Hultzen repeats his delivery well, drifting forward off the rubber with a moderate stride but a noticeable arm wrap; he gets over his front side well with a late release point.

He's probably a solid No. 3 in a good big league rotation, maybe slightly less than that, but with the advantage of needing very little time in the minors to continue to develop.



Rank Player
31 Jarrod Parker
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 24, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Oakland A's
Top '11 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2010 ranking: 25

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
130.2W
11L
8ERA
3.79


SO
112BB
55H
112HR
7BAA
.236
*Missed 2010 season Parker's comeback from Tommy John surgery looks completely successful at this point, culminating in a big league debut at the end of the 2011 season and an offseason trade to Oakland that should give him a spot in the A's Opening Day rotation.

He can still run it up to 96-97 mph, but now uses a two-seamer in addition to the straighter four-seamer to generate more ground balls and make the four-seamer more effective up in the zone. His changeup has improved substantially since high school, showing plus at times and giving him a weapon for days when his slider isn't as sharp. He's listed at 6-foot-1, which is a little short for a pitcher, and there are some concerns about a lack of downward plane on his fastball. The two-seamer mitigates that worry, and despite the elbow surgery his arm actually works pretty well.

He's probably a strong No. 2 down the road but with immediate value at the back of a rotation as he continues to work on setting up hitters and getting more consistency with his off-speed offerings.



Rank Player
32 Casey Kelly
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 4, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: AA (San Antonio)
2011 ranking: 19

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
142.1W
11L
6ERA
3.98


SO
105BB
46H
153HR
8BAA
.278
Kelly has now seen two real velocity spikes since coming into pro ball, hitting 95-96 mph on a regular basis, but hasn't put everything together to produce a year where he misses bats like someone with his raw stuff should.

He was working in the middle of the plate too much in 2011, but moved to the first base side of the rubber later in the year to produce more late life over the outside corner to right-handed hitters. His curveball showed better shape and angle this year -- although it's never been quite as sharp as it was in high school -- and his changeup remains above-average thanks to good arm speed. He shows no platoon split, has solid-average control, and keeps the ball down. His delivery is incredibly easy, and he's a plus fielder thanks to his incredible athleticism. He just doesn't miss bats, but has the weapons to do so. Everything else is in place for him to be a solid No. 2 starter.



Rank Player
33 A.J. Cole
Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 5, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Oakland A's
Top '11 Level: A (Hagerstown)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
20IP
89W
4L
7ERA
4.04


SO
108BB
24H
87HR
6BAA
.251
Cole was an arm-strength guy out of high school with size and questions about his commitment to baseball, but he answered those with a strong 2011 where he showed new dedication to his craft, becoming more of a pitcher and less of just a thrower over the course of his first full season in pro ball. He was then sent to the A's this winter in the Gio Gonzalez trade.

He was hitting 98 mph regularly by the late summer, working in the mid-90s with better command of the pitch than he'd had before. His curveball still comes and goes, but his feel for the changeup -- a pitch he didn't use much in high school -- advanced substantially. Cole was kept on tight pitch counts by the Nationals, but never walked more than three men in any appearance and walked two or fewer in 17 of his 20 outings on the year. He's still growing into his angular 6-foot-4, 180-pound frame and should pick up muscle to add durability; it's probably a good three years until he makes an impact in Oakland, but he's got at least a No. 2 starter's ceiling.



Rank Player
34 Mason Williams
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 21, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: New York Yankees
Top '11 Level: A (Staten Island)
2010 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
68AB
269HR
3RBI
31SB
28


SO
41BB
20AVG
.349OBP
.395SLG
.468
Williams, the son of former New England Patriot Derwin Williams, is an outstanding athlete who showed a much better approach and feel for the game in his first full year in pro ball than expected.

He's an above-average-to-plus runner with a plus arm, but the most impressive part of his game in 2011 was the quality of his at bats, which improved over the course of the summer. He's listed at 6 feet, 150 pounds, and has barely begun to fill out; much of the 'power' you see in his stat line was the product of his speed (six triples in 68 games), but he has the hip rotation and leverage to hit for real power when he's not quite so skinny. His bat is quick, but his stride is very long and he glides on to his front side, so he doesn't have as much time as he should to pick up off-speed pitch.

Williams finished second in the New York-Penn League in batting average, 10th in OBP, and 14th in slugging despite being one of the 10 youngest regulars in the league, and he's barely begun to scratch the surface of his ability.



Rank Player
35 Francisco Lindor
Age: 18 (DOB: Nov. 14, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '11 Level: A (Mahoning Valley)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
5AB
19HR
0RBI
2SB
1


SO
5BB
1AVG
.316OBP
.350SLG
.316
The Puerto Rican-born Lindor was one of the youngest prospects in last year's draft, and was also one of its only true shortstops, making him a top-10 pick in a loaded class.

Lindor has four tools for certain, with power the only real question. He has very soft hands and easy actions at shortstop, with range in both directions, a plus arm, and quick feet that should also result in strong stolen base totals. At the plate, he keeps his hands inside the ball extremely well and has good hand speed, projecting to hit for average and doubles power down the road. He grew over the course of his senior year in high school and started to hit for more power with the metal bat, but is most likely a 10-15 homer guy unless he has another unexpected spurt.

Lindor plays with a ton of energy and gets good marks all around for his makeup, making him a likely candidate to jump into the top 20 after his full-season debut in 2012.



Rank Player
36 Anthony Rizzo
Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 8, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '11 Level: Majors (Padres)
2011 ranking: 38

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
93AB
356HR
26RBI
101SB
7


SO
89BB
43AVG
.331OBP
.404SLG
.652
In the last year, Rizzo has been traded from the organization that drafted him (Red Sox), torn apart a good Triple-A hitters' park (Tucson), scuffled in the majors' best pitchers park (Petco), and been traded a second time to the organization that hired the people who drafted him (Cubs). And he's still just 22 years old.

Rizzo is a plus-fielding, plus-makeup, power-hitting first baseman -- just as he was last winter when he looked like he'd become Adrian Gonzalez's long-term successor in San Diego -- with more of an average hit tool and a history of wide platoon splits. He has a year less experience than the typical prospect his age due to Hodgkin lymphoma that cost him most of the 2008 season. He's got a good feel for the strike zone, evident even during his major league struggles, and the power to profile as an above-average or better first baseman on offense.

He just might need another half-year in Triple-A to work on recognizing changing speeds, especially from left-handed pitchers.



Rank Player
37 Nick Castellanos
Age: 19 (DOB: March 4, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '11 Level: A (West Michigan)
2011 ranking: 75

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
507HR
7RBI
76SB
3


SO
130BB
45AVG
.312OBP
.367SLG
.436
Castellanos' ceiling hasn't changed in the last year -- impact power hitter with above-average defense at third base -- but he did prove to be less advanced as a player in 2011 than he appeared to be (to me, at least) out of high school.

He still projects to have four plus tools (running is the exception), with strong hands, a simple swing, and the leverage to produce 20-plus home run power when he matures. At third base, his arm is strong but his footwork is poor, getting tangled up to the point where it affects his fielding and throwing; he's loose and athletic enough to improve, but it's going to take time, as will improving his pitch recognition.

He started horribly in 2011, but hit .332/.385/.470 after May 1, striking out less often but not walking as much as he should. He was the sixth-youngest regular in the Midwest League in 2011 and will likely be one of the youngest players in the Florida State League this year, but may need to stick to a level a year to work on his plate discipline so he can fully tap his offensive potential.



Rank Player
38 Matt Harvey
Age: 22 (DOB: Mar. 27, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Mets
Top '11 Level: AA (Binghamton)
2011 ranking: 83

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
135.2W
13L
5ERA
3.32


SO
156BB
47H
125HR
9BAA
.246
Harvey's strong season in Double-A showed that he's not that far away from contributing in the big leagues, but also masked some of the ongoing questions about his repertoire and command that probably push him toward a good No. 3 or average No. 2 ceiling.

He will sit 91-97 mph as a starter with good downhill plane, and his changeup is a weapon for him against both left- and right-handed hitters. His curve and slider tend to run together, and he'd probably be better off just picking one or the other and using it exclusively to avoid throwing in-between pitches that will get hammered at higher levels.

The UNC product didn't dominate Double-A like you'd expect him to based on his velocity, but a sharper breaking ball could produce those results and get him to the big leagues by the middle of this year.



Rank Player
39 Wily Peralta
Age: 22 (DOB: May 8, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '11 Level: AAA (Nashville)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
150.2W
11L
7ERA
3.17


SO
157BB
59H
127HR
9BAA
.233
The question on Peralta was whether the strikeout totals would catch up to his stuff, but they did in 2011, to the point where he is probably the Brewers' best option for the fifth spot in the rotation (which he probably won't get on Opening Day).

Peralta is big, 6-2, 240 pounds, but handles his size well on the mound with good balance and a long stride to get more velocity. He'll sit 94-97 mph as a starter with an above-average slider and average changeup, with slight sink on the fastball and solid-average control. He's still working on feel and command, but has enough raw stuff to get hitters out as the latter develops. This ability to miss bats makes him much more likely to remain a starter, probably a No. 2 or No. 3 in a good rotation, but with the chance to add value right away because of the velocity.



Rank Player
40 Rymer Liriano
Age: 20 (DOB: June 20, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: A (Lake Elsinore)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
131AB
510HR
12RBI
68SB
66


SO
108BB
53AVG
.298OBP
.365SLG
.465
Liriano came out of nowhere in 2011 after a forgettable 2010 season that saw him post a .288 OBP across three levels with little power to go along with it.

He repeated the Midwest League last year, however, and destroyed it, showing all five tools and becoming the Padres' top position-player prospect. He's a physical specimen who earns body comps to (young) Sammy Sosa and Raul Mondesi, with plus arm and run grades today and future-plus grades in the other three categories. He has electric bat speed that makes up for current weaknesses in his approach, such as fringy recognition of breaking stuff and poor recognition of changeups, but he already has the raw power to drive an off-speed pitch out the other way if he can pick up the spin.

He'll probably slow down as he gets to his mid-20s because he's already about 6 feet and 220 pounds, but a right fielder who saves 5-10 runs a year with the potential for a .300 average, 30 homers, and 30-plus steals is a really rare and valuable commodity.



Rank Player
41 Zach Lee
Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 13, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '11 Level: A (Great Lakes)
2011 ranking: 91

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
24IP
109W
9L
6ERA
3.47


SO
91BB
32H
101HR
9BAA
.242
Lee reminds me of Casey Kelly, in that both are hyper-athletic former quarterbacks with easy, picturesque deliveries, solid stuff, and strikeout rates a little below what you'd expect.

But as with Kelly, Lee projects to keep getting better with time and experience -- and it's always good to bet on the athlete when there's at least some history of performance. Lee will pitch at 90-97 mph on his best days with good command and great arm speed on his changeup, with a delivery he repeats extremely well. His breaking ball remains a work in progress, but did improve over the course of the season, and when that arrives, the strikeouts should follow.

At worst, he's a solid three, but there's some potential for him to front a rotation when he fills out if the breaking ball should advance even further than expected.



Rank Player
42 Drew Hutchison
Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 22, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: AA (New Hampshire)
2011 ranking: Sleeper

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
28IP
149.1W
14L
5ERA
2.53


SO
171BB
35H
120HR
4BAA
.220
Hutchison took a huge leap forward in 2011, putting on some weight and seeing his stuff start to inch up, topping out at 94 mph on a regular basis. He'll sit at 91-92 but with uncanny feel for pitching for his age, and deception and angle from a slightly cross-body arm action. That delivery isn't ideal for long-term health, but he gets to his glove side fine and benefits from the way it limits right-handers' looks at the ball. His slider flashes plus right now up to 84 with good tilt, and the changeup has been plus dating back to when the Jays drafted him.

Hutchison projects as a solid No. 3 right now, but with the command and feel to be more if his velocity continues to improve and that cross-body delivery holds up. I like his chances to take one more big step in 2012 and even sniff the big leagues by September.



Rank Player
43 Cheslor Cuthbert
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 16, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: A (Kane County)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
81AB
300HR
8RBI
51SB
2


SO
65BB
36AVG
.267OBP
.345SLG
.397
Cuthbert was born on the Corn Islands off the coast of Nicaragua, and signed with the Royals in 2009 for $1.35 million, a record bonus for a Nicaraguan-born prospect but a number that looks quite small given how well he played in 2011 as the Midwest League's youngest regular.

He has a fantastic approach for his age and a smooth right-handed swing with excellent rotation and good extension through the zone, although he can let his hips glide forward before contact. He has good hands and a strong arm with the athleticism to stay at third base. He's over some back trouble that bothered him for much of 2010 through instructional league, and he's going to have to develop more power to profile as a star at third base, but between the rotational swing and the good hand-eye coordination he's a solid bet to do so.



Rank Player
44 Jean Segura
Age: 21 (DOB: March 17, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '11 Level: A (Inland Empire)
2011 ranking: 35

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
52AB
215HR
4RBI
26SB
18


SO
29BB
15AVG
.293OBP
.341SLG
.447
It was a lost season for Segura, who lost three months to a hamstring strain and spent the fall trying to at least make up for the missed at-bats in the Arizona Fall League and Dominican Winter League.

The good news is that he is still going to stay at shortstop for the time being, although it's not clear he'll be able to stay there long-term. He has an extremely short, direct swing to produce line drives, and did a better job this year staying upright instead of trying to hit for power he doesn't really have. He's an above-average runner when his legs are working, quick enough for shortstop with sufficient arm strength. The 2011 season marked the third time in four years he'd lost significant time to injury, and if he doesn't pan out, health will likely be the reason.

If he overcomes the injury bug and stays at short, he's a possible All-Star who should hit for average and add value on the bases; at second, he's more of an average to fringe-average regular because of the limited upside in his bat.



Rank Player
45 Drew Pomeranz
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 22, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '11 Level: Majors (Rockies)
2011 ranking: 60

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
20IP
101W
4L
3ERA
1.78


SO
119BB
38H
68HR
3BAA
.189
Pomeranz and Alex White were the main players going to Colorado in July's Ubaldo Jimenez trade; and while White is closer to the big leagues, Pomeranz has a greater chance of succeeding as a starter.

The southpaw will sit 90-94 with a plus curveball and a much improved changeup from his junior year at Mississippi. He destroyed left-handed batters in 2011, holding them to a .130/.175/.174 line while striking out 47 of 97 batters and walking four, but was effective against right-handed hitters thanks to the change. Pomeranz has had trouble maintaining a consistent delivery -- Cleveland cleaned up his arm action in back, but he would regress to his old, more violent delivery -- and, not coincidentally, he's had some minor shoulder pain along the way.

If he can find and stick with a cleaner, repeatable arm action, he has the potential to be a No. 2 starter who misses a lot of bats.



Rank Player
46 Jonathan Singleton
Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 18, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base Organization: Houston Astros
Top '11 Level: A (Lancaster)
2011 ranking: 27

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
128AB
449HR
13RBI
63SB
3


SO
123BB
70AVG
.298OBP
.392SLG
.441
Singleton was the main piece Philadelphia sent to Houston in July's Hunter Pence trade; he's a first baseman with a beautiful swing but a long way to go before he has real impact in the big leagues.

He has great balance and plate coverage, excellent ball-strike recognition, and good hip rotation and extension through the zone that could lead to 30-homer power. The Phillies tried him in left field, but it didn't take, so his future is back at first base, and their attempt to change his stance by having him hit more off his toes resulted in a long funk early in the year. He's also had issues with left-handed pitching, which reduces him right now to a singles hitter.

Singleton is still just also 20 years old and, if the Astros so choose, ready for Double-A, where he'd be among the youngest regulars.



Rank Player
47 Jake Marisnick
Age: 20 (DOB: March 30, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: A (Lansing)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
118AB
462HR
14RBI
77SB
37


SO
91BB
43AVG
.320OBP
.392SLG
.496
Marisnick repeated the Midwest League in 2011 and turned in a breakout season where all five of his tools were on display, as well as a cleaner swing that eliminated the slight reloading hitch he had in high school. He repeats his swing well for line-drive power, and has the hip rotation to drive the ball out as he gets stronger.

His arm is plus and while he's not a burner, his reads in center are good enough to grade his defense there as plus as well. Marisnick is also a very hard worker who has impressed the Jays' staff with his ability to make adjustments. Don't be surprised to see him get to Double-A this year.



Rank Player
48 Christian Yelich
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 5, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '11 Level: A (Greensboro)
2011 ranking: 79

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
122AB
461HR
15RBI
77SB
32


SO
102BB
55AVG
.312OBP
.388SLG
.484
Yelich is a pure hitter who jumped to the Sally League as a 19-year-old and was among the best hitters in the league.

He's a disciplined hitter with very quick hands and a smooth, left-handed swing that produces doubles power now and should produce at least 20-homer power down the road. Yelich's problem is on defense, where his throwing motion -- which the Marlins believed they could fix, or at least tweak -- earns comparisons to Shannon Stewart and other famous noodle-armed outfielders, limiting him to left field or possibly first base. Like most young left-handed hitters, he showed some platoon split, although his line against southpaws (.256/.337/.391, with a 24 percent strikeout rate) was good enough to give some hope that he can close the gap.

He could be the hitter Adam Lind looked like in 2009, but with better feel for the strike zone and a chance to stay in left field.



Rank Player
49 Joe Ross
Age: 18 (DOB: May 21, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: Rookie (AZL)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
1IP
1W
0L
0ERA
0.00


SO
0BB
0H
2HR
0BAA
.400
After last fall's instructional league, Ross (the 25th overall pick in the 2011 draft) was earning talk as the steal of the first round. Ross, whose older brother Tyson pitches in the Oakland system, is an extremely athletic, high-upside starter with enough present stuff and polish to move quickly through the low minors.

He'll pitch at 90-95 mph and has shown better in shorter stints, with real angle on the pitch from a three-quarters arm slot. His hard slurve was sharper in instructs than it had been before, and his changeup, currently solid-average, projects as an above-average to plus pitch. He's not quite the athlete that system-mate Casey Kelly is, but is in a similar mold, with a clean delivery and more velocity than Kelly had at the same age. Ross projects as at least a solid No. 2 starter.



Rank Player
50 Eddie Rosario
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 28, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '11 Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
2011 ranking: UR

2011MINORS STATS


GM
67AB
270HR
21RBI
60SB
17


SO
60BB
27AVG
.337OBP
.397SLG
.670
Rosario, a fourth-round pick in 2010 out of Puerto Rico, reached base three times in his first game of 2011, three times in his last game, and never really stopped hitting in between, leading the Appy League in triples, homers, and slugging percentage.

He has a noisy lower half and can bar his lead arm, but he's got lightning-quick wrists and very strong forearms to produce this kind of power from a modest frame, and he showed solid plate discipline against right-handed pitchers. He's an above-average runner with the arm for center, with a very good chance to stay there with more work on reads.

He's very high-risk, high-reward, but there could be Carlos Gonzalez here given enough time.

1-25.

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Welcome to ESPN Insider's 2012 ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.



This is the fifth year I have done these rankings for Insider, and for the first time, we have a repeater at No. 1 (and, as it turns out, at No. 2). There were still a number of high-profile graduations from last year's list, starting with Eric Hosmer at No. 5 and Dustin Ackley at No. 7, and a trade that saw last year's No. 4 and 21 prospects, Jesus Montero and Michael Pineda, respectively, exchanged for each other earlier this offseason. This year's list benefits from a major infusion of high-end talent from the 2011 Rule 4 draft, one of the strongest draft classes in years.



The Guidelines


• The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1.


• Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.



• I do not consider players with experience in Nippon Professional Baseball "prospects" for the purposes of this exercise, which means no Yu Darvish.



• When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.



• I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Mike Stanton has 80 raw power. Bengie Molina has 20 speed. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.



• I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 last offseason. An "ineligible" player (IE) was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an "unranked" player (UR) was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers list or list of 10 players who just missed the cut.


Law's complete top 100: Index | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100



Rank Player
1 Mike Trout
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 7, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '11 Level: Majors (Angels)
2011 ranking: 1

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
131AB
353HR
11RBI
38SB
33


SO
76BB
45AVG
.326OBP
.414SLG
.544
Of the top three prospects on this year's list -- all viable candidates for the top spot -- Trout rose to the top because, in a sense, he's the perfect prospect. He is a position player who affects the game on offense, on defense and via baserunning, and has shown incredible maturity in his approach despite the fact that he entered pro ball at age 17 and still can't legally buy a drink (unless the Angels are visiting the Blue Jays). The next two guys on this list are pretty special in their own right, but Trout remains the top dog -- er, fish -- for 2012.

All Trout did last year was rank in the top 10 in the Texas League in on-base percentage (fifth, .414) and slugging (eighth, .544) despite being the youngest qualifying position player in the league. He's an 80 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) who flies out of the box; he tied for the league lead in triples and finished fifth in stolen bases even though a call up to the big leagues -- before his 20th birthday -- limited him to just 91 games at Double-A. And that early call-up is, in and of itself, a good sign: In the past 40 years, just 11 other players have had 100 plate appearances in a year in which their seasonal ages were 19 or younger, a list that includes Hall of Famer Robin Yount; potential Hall of Famers Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez and Pudge Rodriguez; and non-slouches Adrian Beltre, Justin Upton and Andruw Jones.

Trout is atop the list because the scouting report lines up with the production he has showed in the minors over the past three years. In addition to that explosive speed, he has great hand-eye coordination; a short, direct path to the ball; and a very advanced approach that combines pitch recognition with good ball-strike recognition. (That approach did fall apart a little in the big leagues, in part as he tried to be more aggressive to keep himself in the lineup, but also as he struggled to adjust to pitchers with better breaking balls changing eye levels on him -- fastballs up, curveballs down, in either order.) He has the hip rotation and leverage to hit for above-average power down the road to go with high batting averages and OBP, and should provide plus defense in any of the three outfield spots. A player such as Trout, who can add so much value to his team in so many ways, belongs on the top of the rankings.



Rank Player
2 Bryce Harper
Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 16, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization:Washington Nationals
Top '11 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2010 ranking: 2

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
109AB
387HR
17RBI
58SB
26


SO
87BB
59AVG
.297OBP
.392SLG
.501
Harper's calling card remains his 80 power to go with an 80 arm from right field, but he's a better overall athlete than he's given credit for. He showed over the course of a year when he was challenged twice by the Nationals with promotions that he can and will make adjustments to pitchers who attack his weaknesses.

His light-tower power produces incredible BP sessions and mammoth in-game shots; he has as much leverage from his lower half as a human can achieve without dislocating his spine midswing. He couples that with both quick wrists and strong hand-eye coordination for higher contact rates than this kind of power hitter typically sees. He's a plus runner who has improved substantially in right field since moving there after signing in 2010.

Harper still struggles with breaking stuff from lefties and continues to adjust to right-handers pitching him soft away, but showed improvement in at-bats against both groups of pitchers in the Arizona Fall League. He should return to Double-A to start the season and spend some time in Triple-A when ready, but a September call-up would be a reasonable timetable, with 30-homer seasons in his very near future.



Rank Player
3 Matt Moore
Age: 22 (DOB: June 18, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: Majors (Rays)
2011 ranking: 16

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
155W
12L
3ERA
1.92


SO
210BB
46H
101HR
11BAA
.184
Moore throws in the upper 90s about as easily as any left-hander I can remember seeing, sitting 93 to 98 mph like he's playing catch. He complements the heater with a plus slider in the low 80s and an even better changeup that helped him demolish right-handed batters in 2011 -- he struck out just less than 40 percent of right-handers he faced in the minors last year. The changeup is hard, 83-87 mph, and cuts more than fades, so Moore just buries it at the knees to keep hitters who've picked it up from elevating it. The slider is bigger than a typical slider, with tilt but a hint of a curveball's break that can carry it out of the zone, although if that's your third-best pitch, you're going pretty good.

His control took a big step forward this year, and his command of the fastball and changeup is already above average. Moore is only 22 with the frame to get stronger and an easy delivery that should, in theory, keep him on the mound longer. If I had a crystal ball that could promise me Moore would stay healthy for the next decade, he'd be even higher on this list. Instead, he'll have to settle for third place and predictions of Cy Young contention by his third or fourth year in the majors.



Rank Player
4 Manny Machado
Age: 19 (DOB: July 6, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '11 Level: A (Fredrick)
2011 ranking: 26

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
101AB
382HR
11RBI
50SB
11


SO
73BB
45AVG
.257OBP
.335SLG
.421
Machado showed he was much more advanced at the plate than even his biggest fans (myself included) thought, jumping to a full-season club and showing strong plate discipline in his first year in pro ball.

At the plate, Machado has strong, quick wrists and has mostly eliminated the slight bat wrap he had in high school, although he's started to drift a little early, which might cut off a little of his power. He has great hip rotation and really extends his arm well through his finish, so if he keeps his weight back a little better, he'll have above-average to plus power when he matures physically.

The biggest risk for Machado will be that he outgrows shortstop as his body fills out, but that likely would come with a major increase in power that could carry his bat at third base. He has the arm, the hands and the athleticism to handle short, and the faster pro game didn't faze him on defense or offense. At third, he'd still be an All-Star, but as a shortstop, when he reaches his mid-20s, he could be among the best players in the game.



Rank Player
5 Shelby Miller
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: AA (Springfield)
2011 ranking: 9

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
139.2W
11L
6ERA
2.77


SO
170BB
53H
112HR
4BAA
.219
Miller is the top right-handed pitching prospect in the minors, with the best combination of stuff, size, delivery and results of any pitcher in the minors not named Matt Moore.

He will sit in the low- to mid-90s and touch 97 mph as a starter with a sharp breaking ball in the upper-70s/low-80s with good depth that misses right-handed hitters' bats. He continued to make progress this year with his changeup, a pitch he rarely needed or used as an amateur, and the pitch has good tailing action that has helped him gets some swinging strikes against lefties. He is very receptive to coaches' suggestions and has proved a quick study so far.

He often lands on the third-base side of the rubber and comes slightly across his body, creating deception but also potentially putting stress on his shoulder. If the Cardinals can keep him more on line, and he sees more improvement in the changeup and command of the fastball, he's a potential No. 1 starter for the Cardinals in two or three years.



Rank Player
6 Travis d'Arnaud
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: AA (New Hampshire)
2010 ranking: 99

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
114AB
424HR
21RBI
78SB
4


SO
100BB
33AVG
.311OBP
.371SLG
.542
D'Arnaud might turn out to be the real impact player acquired by Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade -- although I think Kyle Drabek is far too young and talented to assume his story is written -- as a plus defensive catcher who produces across the board on offense.

The two big keys for d'Arnaud in 2011 were staying healthy -- which he did until he tore a thumb ligament while playing for Team USA in October's World Cup -- and starting to grow into his power, which projects as plus, 25-30 homers in a full season of catching down the road.

His defense, always solid, improved this year with help from his manager in New Hampshire, Sal Fasano, who worked with d'Arnaud on game-calling and footwork. There's still more growth in d'Arnaud's bat, and he has the arm strength and release to improve his modest caught-stealing rates when he reaches the majors. He is expected to be healthy for spring training and will start the year in Triple-A, but since Las Vegas is such a hitters' park to begin with, he might knock the walls down before Toronto calls him up later in the year.



Rank Player
7 Jurickson Profar
Age: 18 (DOB: Feb. 20, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '11 Level: A (Hickory)
2011 ranking: 81

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
115AB
430HR
12RBI
65SB
23


SO
63BB
65AVG
.286OBP
.390SLG
.493
The Sally League's youngest regular was one of its most impressive prospects of any age; Profar showed the selectivity of a player six or seven years his senior, outstanding instincts in the field and more power than anticipated in his full-season debut.

Profar is a plus-makeup, plus-feel, plus-instincts guy who breaks the mold of that type of player by also having tremendous tools. Born in Curacao, he was scouted more as a pitcher that a position player before he signed. His defense projects as plus, if it isn't there already, with good hands, great reactions off the bat and of course a plus arm. At the plate, his approach is very advanced, and he's stronger than I realized, showing the ability to drive the ball the other way. He needs to keep his stride shorter -- I've seen him overstride to the point where his back side collapses -- and might have more pull power if he does so. He is only an average runner down the line but gets more out of his speed through his feel for baserunning.

Profar is also a player to root for, because of the energy he brings to the game and what a potential superstar like him could do for the sport on the global stage.



Rank Player
8 Devin Mesoraco
Age: 23 (DOB: June 19, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: C Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '11 Level: Majors (Reds)
2011 ranking: 31

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
120AB
436HR
15RBI
71SB
1


SO
83BB
52AVG
.289OBP
.371SLG
.484
Mesoraco followed up his breakout 2010 season -- after doing nothing in his first two years in pro ball -- with an impressive year in Triple-A in which he showed patience, some power and enough defensive ability to profile as an All-Star backstop in the big leagues.

At the plate, Mesoraco is strong and balanced, rotating his hips very well (despite a very faint hip drift) for future plus power that would produce 15-20 bombs right now in the big leagues. His approach is sound, surprisingly so for a player who faced a low level of competition in high school in Punxsutawney, Pa. Behind the plate, he receives fine and has improved his game-calling; his arm strength is above-average but it's mitigated by a slow release, one factor behind a drop in his caught stealing percentage from 2009-10 to 2011.

He is a rookie of the year contender in 2011 if he gets the playing time and should produce 25-homer seasons down the road at a position where any kind of offense is welcome.



Rank Player
9 Jesus Montero
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher/DH Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: Majors (Yankees)
2011 ranking: 4

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
109AB
420HR
18RBI
67SB
0


SO
98BB
36AVG
.288OBP
.348SLG
.467
Montero, who was traded to Seattle in a January deal that sent Michael Pineda to the Yankees, is a monster bat with a chance to produce MVP-caliber offensive lines from the DH slot, as soon as the Mariners accept that's where he needs to be.

He's exceedingly strong with plus bat speed and great hand-eye coordination, so even though he hits off his front foot, he can drive the ball out to all fields. Early in 2011, he lost his patience at the plate, apparently due to some frustration at returning to Triple-A, but worked it out and showed his previous approach and results during the second half and in a brief but impressive call-up to the Bronx in September.

As a catcher, Montero is not a catcher. He's slow behind the dish, poor at receiving and throwing -- despite some arm strength, he takes a year and a half to get rid of the ball, so the arm doesn't play. The bat is too special to put at risk of injury at the catcher's spot or to omit from the lineup 25 times a year because of routine rest days. Let Jesus hit.



Rank Player
10 Gerrit Cole
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 8, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: AFL (Mesa)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 AFL STATS


GM
3IP
15W
2L
0ERA
3.00


SO
16BB
4H
10HR
1BAA
.179
Cole was the first overall pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft and the top prospect in the draft class, on the basis of his long-term projection rather than his performance, which, it should be noted, wasn't the best on his own college team. (He was outpitched by UCLA teammate Trevor Bauer, who is No. 22 on this list.)

He has an 80 fastball, hitting 100-101 mph as a starter and pitching comfortably at 95-98, although the four-seamer doesn't have much life and he needs to learn to locate it better within the strike zone. His changeup is plus, 84-88 mph with good arm speed and hard fade, although his feel for how to use the pitch isn't as advanced as it should be because he threw it less often than his above-average 86-89 mph slider.

Cole can cut himself off a bit, especially when rushing his delivery. When he's right, he uses his lower half to generate arm speed and gets out over his front side after a strong stride toward the plate. He needs to work on his feel for pitching, since his coach always called his games at UCLA, and on command of his fastball; using his two-seamer more might also help him minimize mistakes up with the four-seamer. But the projection here is that of a No. 1 starter who can miss bats with as many as four different pitches, and who has the size and delivery to handle an ace's workload.



Rank Player
11 Dylan Bundy
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 15, 1992)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '11 Level: DNP
2011 ranking: IE

2011 HS STATS


GM
NAIP
71W
11L
0ERA
0.20


SO
158BB
5H
20HR
NABAA
NA
How advanced is Bundy, a high school pitcher from Oklahoma taken fourth overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft? One very senior front-office executive who saw him suggested the only reason Bundy wouldn't make Baltimore's opening day roster this year was his height. Aside from being "just" 6 feet tall, Bundy is about as perfect a high school right-hander as you'll find, boasting plus velocity, plus off-speed stuff, outstanding feel for pitching and a great delivery boosted by a legendary conditioning regimen.

He will sit 93-96 mph and touched 98-99 last spring, with a big, sharp upper-70s curveball and a vicious out-pitch cutter at 86-88 that he uses in lieu of his changeup to left-handed batters. The negatives are few; even his lack of height isn't a major concern, since he gets on top of the ball well and works down in the zone. He was worked extremely hard in high school, including a 180-pitch outing his junior year that earned some criticism on the national level, and no matter how well your arm works, an outing of that length includes some pitching while fatigued, especially for an 18-year-old. I'd like to see Baltimore handle Bundy aggressively, getting him to at least Double-A this year if his performance in the low minors follows our expectations.



Rank Player
12 Hak-Ju Lee
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 4, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: AA (Montgomery)
2011 ranking: 49

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
121AB
500HR
5RBI
30SB
33


SO
94BB
53AVG
.292OBP
.365SLG
.416
Lee's breakout year in 2011 carried him to Double-A at age 20 and established him as one of the best true shortstop prospects in the game. He's a four-tool player whose only weakness is power, but because he's a lock to stay at the position, his bat will still make him a potential All-Star. A product of the Cubs' longtime investment in Korea, Lee was traded to Tampa in the Matt Garza deal in January 2011, and I'm guessing the Cubs' new brass would like to have him back.

He is a 70 runner with a plus arm, quick feet and solid instincts at short, along with excellent bat speed and an advanced approach that led him to the 12th-best on-base percentage in the Florida State League despite his being one of its 10 youngest regulars. His swing is slappy, so he's not going to hit for much if any power, but with high batting averages and OBPs and added value on defense, he'll be an All-Star candidate a few years after reaching the majors sometime in 2013.



Rank Player
13 Wil Myers
Age: 21 (DOB: Dec. 20, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: AA (Northwest Arkansas)
2011 ranking: UR

2010 MINORS STATS


GM
99AB
354HR
8RBI
45SB
9


SO
87BB
52AVG
.254OBP
.353SLG
.393
Myers' season got off to a rough start when he suffered a knee injury that ended up infected, costing him about six weeks of playing time and leaving his lower half a little stiff for much of the summer. But after resting it in September, he showed up in the Arizona Fall League looking like his old self.

He is a strong, patient hitter who's going to grow into a physical beast who hits 30-plus homers a year while providing at least average defense in right. Myers' swing is very natural and simple but doesn't produce a ton of power yet because he's young and because his stride is unusually short. His approach is excellent, and even as he struggled during the regular season, he continued to work the count and draw walks. He has an above-average arm in right and is athletic enough to stay there even if he ends up with a body similar to Scott Rolen. Don't be fooled by the off year -- he's still going to mash.



Rank Player
14 Arodys Vizcaino
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 13, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '11 Level: Majors (Braves)
2011 ranking: 47

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
97W
5L
5ERA
3.06


SO
100BB
28H
82HR
7BAA
.225
Vizcaino, who was acquired from the Yankees in the Javier Vazquez trade, appeared briefly down the stretch for Atlanta as a fastball-curveball reliever with two plus offerings and erratic command, but long term, he's a three-pitch starter who has a history of plus control, and just needs time and health to become a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.

He will pitch at 92-96 mph as a starter and touched 98 in relief for the big club, with some late life up in the zone. His main secondary pitch is a very hard curveball, breaking down hard at slider velocity with two-plane action and depth. He has good arm speed on his changeup and was much more effective against left-handed pitchers in the minors last year, even though he comes from just under three-quarters and gives those batters a longer look at the ball. He accelerates his arm very quickly and gets on top of the ball well but doesn't get great extension out front.

The righty missed part of 2010 with a partial ligament tear, and the move to the bullpen late in 2011 was to protect his arm as much as to give the major league club another relief option. If he stays healthy, which he did for all of last year, he's got the weapons and the easy velocity to pitch at the top of a rotation, with impact reliever potential if he can't handle the workload.



Rank Player
15 Bubba Starling
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 3, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: Prep
2011 ranking: IE

2011 HS STATS


GM
21AB
NAHR
8RBI
24SB
21


SO
NABB
NAAVG
.508OBP
NASLG
NA
The best athlete in the 2011 draft -- and one of the best I've ever seen pick up a bat -- Starling spurned a scholarship to play quarterback at Nebraska to sign with the hometown Royals and become their long-term answer in center field.

He is a true five-tool player who hit 92 mph off the mound, was consistently the fastest runner at baseball showcases in high school and has above-average present power that will become plus as he fills out. He has some drift at the plate that holds back his power, but he has the hand strength and hip rotation to drive the ball to all fields. He hasn't faced a ton of advanced pitching in his life, and adjusting to pro pitchers who can spin a good breaking ball will be the ultimate test of how mature Starling's approach at the plate is. For now, it's all beautiful upside, a supreme athlete who one day will hit third or fourth in a lineup with above-average defense in center while contending for MVP awards.



Rank Player
16 Jameson Taillon
Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 18, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: A (West Virginia)
2011 ranking: 30

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
23IP
92.2W
2L
3ERA
3.98


SO
97BB
22H
89HR
9BAA
.249
Taillon still has top-of-the-rotation ceiling, but he has pitched so little in pro ball that he hasn't developed as quickly as the typical top-end teenage pitcher would.

At 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, he looks like a workhorse starter, and has the plus fastball and future-plus slider to complete the story, sitting in the mid-90s (rarely throwing a fastball slower than 93 mph) with the ability to go back and get 98 when he needs it. He's so big at such a young age that his body control is lagging, and he'll need to continue to focus on pacing his delivery and keeping himself on line to the plate.

The Pirates' handling of Taillon's workloads has raised eyebrows across the game. He's been on such tight pitch counts that he faced more than 20 batters in a start just three times all year, never recording more than 15 outs. Despite that, he performed worse as the season went on, with reductions in his command and control. I still see Taillon as a future ace, but at some point, the Pirates will have to take the reins off.



Rank Player
17 Anthony Rendon
Age: 21 (DOB: June 6, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization:Washington Nationals
Top '11 Level: College
2011 ranking: IE

2011 COLLEGE STATS


GM
63AB
214HR
6RBI
37SB
13


SO
33BB
80AVG
.327OBP
.520SLG
.523
Rendon was the top player in the 2011 draft class going into the spring but played with a nagging shoulder injury all season and fell to the Nationals with the sixth pick. When healthy, the Rice University product is an impressive, advanced hitter who should get on base, hit for at least average power and provide plus defense at third.

He has one of the quickest bats in the minors, coupled with major league-caliber plate discipline, particularly in recognizing pitches on the border of the strike zone. Before the shoulder limited his throwing, he had a plus arm, and his first step at third base is quick and accurate. He does have a lot of excess movement before he gets his swing started, leading to some timing issues, and he's now had three serious injuries in the past three years. There have been questions about Washington potentially moving him to second base because of the presence of Ryan Zimmerman, but the Nats currently have no plans to do so, nor should they -- second base is the wrong position for a player who's already had two traumatic ankle injuries. He could end up on top of this list with a healthy 2012, if he shows the defense, bat and patience to again project as an All-Star at third.



Rank Player
18 Julio Teheran
Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 27, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '11 Level: Majors (Braves)
2011 ranking: 6

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
144.2W
15L
3ERA
2.55


SO
122BB
48H
123HR
5BAA
.232
The Colombian-born Teheran still has one of the best pure arms of any starting pitching prospect in the minors, with a theoretical ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but the lesson of his 2011 season was that he's farther away than he appeared to be a year ago.

He'll pitch comfortably at 91-96 mph as a starter with very little effort, although he tries to throw his heater up in the zone and doesn't have a matching weapon to change hitters' eye levels. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that grades out as plus, with good fading action, although he showed a moderate platoon split in the minors and was spanked by left-handed hitters in five big league appearances (.968 OPS against).

Teheran's biggest shortcoming is the lack of an above-average breaking ball, although his mid-70s curveball was shorter and harder this year than it was in the past. He also opens up his front side very early, making the ball much easier for hitters to track, especially from the left side. Most importantly, he is still just 21 and is at least ready to pitch in a big league bullpen, with the kind of loose arm and easy velocity you can't teach.



Rank Player
19 Archie Bradley
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '11 Level: R (Missoula)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
2IP
2W
0L
0ERA
0.00


SO
4BB
0H
1HR
0BAA
.143
Bradley and Dylan Bundy were inevitably paired up all spring, compared to each other primarily because of geography (they played for rival high schools in Oklahoma) rather than the way they pitch. On the mound, the two 2011 first-round picks are quite different.

Where Bundy brings polish and probability, Bradley brings size and ceiling. Bradley, a star quarterback who turned down a scholarship to Oklahoma, is 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, with a fastball at 92-97 mph and one of the best curveballs in last year's draft, an absolute hammer at 80-84 that had older players laughing at how sharp it was in last year's instructional league.

His delivery is pretty simple for a guy his size; he keeps his hands away from his body and pronates his elbow nice and early, but doesn't generate much torque through hip rotation. His feel for pitching isn't as advanced as Bundy's -- yes, now I'm comparing them -- and he'll need to develop his changeup in pro ball, but he has the size and two weapons to project as an ace three or four years down the line.



Rank Player
20 Martin Perez
Age: 20 (DOB: Apr. 4, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '11 Level: AAA (Round Rock)
2011 ranking: 18

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
137.1W
8L
6ERA
4.33


SO
120BB
56H
152HR
10BAA
.284
Perez has been on the prospect radar so long that it's easy to forget he has yet to turn 21. His performances haven't matched his stuff -- or the hype -- just yet, but he reached Triple-A at an unusually young age and performed well given that added variable.

He will sit 92-95 mph on good days, working effectively to both sides of the plate, with a plus changeup at 83-85 that has both good arm speed and hard fading action. His curveball is more solid-average, mid-70s with inconsistent shape. Perez's command and control are still works in progress. He can take an inning or more to find his rhythm, and he has a tendency to overthrow when in trouble. He's improved his conditioning over the past two years, losing baby fat and building up muscle for durability. He could still end up at the top of a rotation but is more likely a solid No. 2 behind, say, someone such as Yu Darvish.



Rank Player
21 Trevor Bauer
Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 17, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '11 Level: AA (Mobile)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
7IP
25.2W
1L
2ERA
5.96


SO
43BB
12H
3HR
27BAA
.257
Bauer, the 2011 Golden Spikes Award winner, was like a machine all spring for UCLA, striking out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faced. He carried much of that dominance into pro ball, helping an absurdly talented Mobile club win the Southern League championship.

He works with up to six pitches, including a plus fastball at 92-95 mph, an above-average changeup and multiple curveballs; both varieties of curve get swings and misses but tend to finish below the zone, something Bauer will have to address to miss pro bats. He's patterned his delivery after Tim Lincecum's, getting leverage early, but without "The Freak's" flexibility or ability to get over his front side.

The righty also handled an obscene workload last spring, topping 120 pitches at least six times for the Bruins, not counting the 50-plus full-effort pitches he'll throw before the game and between innings, adding to concerns about his long-term durability. But he also is nearly ready for the majors, and could post big strikeout totals right out of the chute because of the quality of his stuff and the fact that he's a quick study on the mound.



Rank Player
22 Carlos Martinez
Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 2, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: A (Palm Beach)
2011 ranking: 52

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
18IP
84.2W
6L
5ERA
3.93


SO
98BB
44H
76HR
3BAA
.238
Martinez -- formerly known as Matias -- was originally signed as a shortstop by the Red Sox in 2009, had the deal voided due to an identity question, but started throwing hard enough to earn a seven-figure bonus from the Cardinals a few months later. He now hits 100 mph as a starter and pitches in the mid-90s, with a hard curveball that has sharp two-plane break and tilt that puts it somewhere between a curve and a slider. As good as the curveball is, however, it's so far below the fastball's velocity -- 16-18 mph -- that he's sometimes actually helping the hitter by throwing it. He'll flash a plus changeup that he turns over very well, but when he moved up to high Class A, his lack of deception caught up to him, especially against left-handed hitters.

The Cardinals already have made some adjustments with him so the ball isn't so visible all the way through his delivery, and he needs to avoid trying to be too fine with his pitches when he gets into trouble. He's not a very physical guy -- his best comparable in build might be Pedro Martinez -- but he has the three weapons to remain a starter if he can make it harder for hitters to pick up the ball so early. It's top-of-the-rotation stuff in a pitcher who would be a college junior this year if he'd been born in the U.S.



Rank Player
23 Manny Banuelos
Age: 20 (DOB: Mar. 13, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Yankees
Top '11 Level: AAA (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
2011 ranking: 12

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
129.2W
6L
7ERA
3.75


SO
125BB
71H
130HR
9BAA
.266
Banuelos' season started out on the wrong foot, as he had to go home to Mexico for a personal matter in April, missing some ramp-up time that set him back in his routine and his pitch counts. He pitched into the seventh inning only twice all year, so he needs to build up more stamina in 2012.

When he's right, he'll show an above-average fastball at 90-94 mph (but was a tick below that in 2011), an above-average to plus changeup and a solid-average curveball with good two-plane break. His command and control were off all year, especially to right-handed hitters, and no matter how good your changeup is, you're not getting opposite-side hitters out if you can't locate your fastball first.

Everything still points to Banuelos commanding the ball in the long term as he did before 2011, and much of the disappointment in his season is a function of our high expectations for him. He still projects as a solid No. 2, assuming his previous level of command returns.



Rank Player
24 Taijuan Walker
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 13, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: A (Clinton)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
18IP
96.2W
6L
5ERA
2.89


SO
113BB
39H
69HR
4BAA
.202
If we held a 2010 draft do-over right now, Walker would be a top-10 pick, but the industry let him fall to the sandwich round because a rough spring masked his absurd upside. A two-sport athlete who excelled in basketball in high school, Walker sits in the mid-90s, touching 98 mph, with plus-plus command of his fastball already. He just needs to work on his secondary stuff to reach his potential as a No. 1 starter.

The curveball will flash plus already, while the changeup, which has nice deception, has made solid strides for a pitch he's been throwing for only a little more than a year. Walker has a high leg kick and good stride to the plate, with just a little more effort from the arm than you'd like to see. He is skinny now (6-foot-4, 195 pounds) and is going to fill out substantially, so he needs to work to maintain his agility going forward, as well as on refining the two off-speed pitches. The upside is real, and his emergence this season made the trade of Michael Pineda possible.



Rank Player
25 Tyler Skaggs
Age: 20 (DOB: Jul. 13, 1991)
Bats: LeftThrows: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '11 Level: AA (Mobile)
2011 ranking: 78

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
158.1W
9L
6ERA
2.96


SO
198BB
49H
126HR
10BAA
.218
Skaggs continues to improve by leaps and bounds, to the point where he'd be in line for a big league call-up for a club that didn't also have Trevor Bauer standing in line.

He will sit in the low 90s, averaging around 91 mph, but hitters don't pick up the ball, allowing it to play as if he's throwing 96. He always has had a plus curveball -- he threw two in high school but junked the slower one at the urging of the Angels' staff, before he was traded to Arizona -- but his changeup has been the revelation, from a nonfactor in high school to above-average now. He shows almost no platoon split and struck out just less than a third of the right-handed batters he faced in 2011.

The southpaw has put on weight since high school, but his 6-foot-4 frame probably could handle another 20 pounds, so give him another two or three years, and he'll have the body, delivery, weapons and control to pitch near the top of a rotation.

 

[proshares]

Keith Law's top 100 prospects.

76-100.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

76 Trevor May
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 23, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '11 Level: A (Clearwater)
2011 ranking: 93

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
151.1W
10L
8ERA
3.63


SO
208BB
67H
121HR
8BAA
.221
May's return engagement in the Florida State League went much better than the first go-round, cutting his walk rate nearly in half while striking out 208, a third of the batters he faced. May has above-average velocity at 91-95 mph and his curveball, while still not above-average, at least improved last year. The same applies to his changeup, which is slightly ahead of the curve but still isn't a real weapon for him yet.

The scary aspect of May's success is that he gets a lot of swings-and-misses on the fastball up in the zone, which works in the minors but is harder to pull off in the majors with a higher penalty for failure. He was a pretty severe flyball guy in the FSL, which is a pretty tough league on home runs. May has made strides in becoming more of a pitcher than a thrower, thinking ahead and developing a pitching plan, and the missed bats are a huge positive. He'll just need to work down in the zone or otherwise change eye levels so home runs don't swallow him alive at higher levels.



Rank Player
77 Michael Choice
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 10, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '11 Level: A (Stockton)
2010 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
118AB
467HR
30RBI
82SB
9


SO
134BB
61AVG
.285OBP
.376SLG
.542
Oakland has done a nice job cleaning up Choice's lower half to the point that, while far from quiet, it's at least playable and should allow him to make enough contact for his plus raw power to play. He keeps his weight back better now and has less extraneous leg movement to disrupt his timing. Choice gets good hip rotation and is very strong, top to bottom, so he can drive the ball to all fields.

He did improve his contact rate in the second half, although that could partly be a function of mid-year promotions diluting the talent. He played center last year but will probably end up in left or right, where he should be above average. I think he's a three true outcomes player who'll draw walks, hit 25-35 homers and strike out a lot, but feel more confident in his hit tool today after seeing these mechanical changes than I did a year ago.



Rank Player
78 Jarred Cosart
Age: 21 (DOB: May 25, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Houston Astros
Top '11 Level: AA (Corpus Christi)
2011 ranking: 34

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
144.1W
10L
10ERA
4.12


SO
101BB
56H
131HR
11BAA
.241
Cosart, whom the Astros acquired from the Phillies in the Hunter Pence trade, actually had a good year, but drops in the rankings because more exposure has raised skepticism about his ability to stay healthy as a starter.

His fastball and breaking ball are no-doubters that, in a vacuum, give him a No. 1 starter ceiling; he's 95-98 as a starter with a very hard, 11-to-5 curveball in the mid-70s that can miss bats, as well as a solid-average changeup that might be a little slow relative to the fastball. Cosart's problem stems from a strongly cross-body delivery that gives him some deception but puts stress on his arm, typically the shoulder. Cosart did miss time with a sore shoulder in 2009, and elbow trouble knocked him out for half of 2010 but never required surgery.

The Astros' new regime hasn't had a chance to get their hands on him yet, but I'd expect them to work with him on staying online to the plate and reducing or eliminating that cross-body issue, since he has already had arm trouble. Power reliever isn't a bad downside if Houston can't clean up his delivery, but I'd expect them to exhaust the possibility he's a front-line starter first.



Rank Player
79 Nate Eovaldi
Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 13, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '11 Level: MLB
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
20IP
103W
6L
5ERA
2.62


SO
99BB
46H
76HR
3BAA
.203
Eovaldi was a great find in the 11th round of the 2008 Rule 4 draft, a projectable guy who now has a plus fastball and will flash a plus slider. He'll sit 93-97 mph as a starter, working heavily with the fastball but not locating it quite well enough to put him into a big league rotation yet. His slider varies a lot with its velocity. At 85-87 mph, the slider has some tilt and he can bury it on a left-handed hitter's hands. But when he revs it up to 88-89, it is more like a cutter that breaks almost straight down and isn't that sharp.

He has a changeup but it's a show-me pitch at this point, slow enough out of his hands for hitters to potentially pick it up. He has a hook in the back of his delivery, but once he gets moving he has good leverage from his shoulder tilt and accelerates his arm quickly once he strides.



Rank Player
80 Aaron Hicks
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Center field Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '11 Level: A (Fort Myers)
2011 ranking: 10

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
122AB
443HR
5RBI
38SB
17


SO
110BB
78AVG
.242OBP
.354SLG
.368
It was quite a fall for Hicks, who didn't just fail to perform but didn't look good in not performing, leading many pro scouts to head for the exits. That's bad news for a kid who was in high Class A at age 21 and really wasn't that polished or instinctive (I say this in hindsight) coming out of high school. The one thing Hicks could, and still can, do well is work the count and have good at-bats, but the rest of his game has lagged. His tools are still strong -- he can run and throw and there's power there in BP -- so it's hard to see him developing into less than an average everyday player.

Hicks' main problem is that he doesn't recognize breaking balls well, despite his strong ball-strike recognition. His right-handed swing is much stronger and more balanced than his left-handed swing, but the Twins feel he's making enough progress left-handed to continue hitting from both sides of the plate. I still see a potential star here, since Hicks is the same age as most college seniors, but expectations of fast progress based on his patient approach turned out to be way too optimistic.



Rank Player
81 John Hellweg
Age: 23 (DOB: Oct. 29, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '11 Level: A (Inland Empire)
2010 ranking: Sleeper

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
28IP
89.1W
6L
4ERA
3.73


SO
113BB
59H
75HR
2BAA
.229
Hellweg has always had a huge fastball but couldn't locate anything, walking more than a man an inning from his pro debut until the Angels moved him from the bullpen to the Inland Empire rotation in early June. After the transition, he wasn't exactly Greg Maddux, but his control went from grade-20 to 45, to the point that he's now a real prospect instead of a curiosity. He'll pitch at 97-98 mph with a hard curveball that also misses bats, although his changeup at 91-92 is more like a BP fastball at this point because it doesn't have much action.

He's huge -- 6-foot-9 and 210 pounds -- and despite a fair degree of athleticism has had trouble keeping his delivery in sync, although he's been better at that as a starter, which allows him more time to work it out. He barely pitched at what was then known as Florida Community College, but the Angels took him in the 16th round of the 2008 draft to gamble on his arm strength. And now -- with just 28 walks and 80 punchouts in 63 innings as a starter last year -- they may have found a top-end starter as a result.



Rank Player
82 Matt Davidson
Age: 20 (DOB: March 26, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third base Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '11 Level: AA (Mobile)
2011 ranking: 86

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
535HR
20RBI
106SB
0


SO
147BB
52AVG
.277OBP
.348SLG
.465
Davidson has one of the best-looking right-handed swings in the minors, a swing built for contact but one that generates power because Davidson is so strong up and down and rotates his hips well to get his lower half involved. He's not likely to draw a slew of walks, but his approach is sound and his ability to track the ball and let it travel leads me to think he'll have at least an average walk rate.

Davidson's lower half isn't quick but he has worked himself up to an average glove at third base with plenty of arm, and there is some chance he could even be worth a few runs above average each year with the glove. He's been young for his levels since entering pro ball and will be just 21 all of 2012, starting in Double-A. Even with an average glove, a .280 hitter with 60 walks, 40 doubles and 20-plus homers a year is going to make some All-Star teams as a third baseman.



Rank Player
83 Dellin Betances
Age: 23 (DOB: March 23, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Yankees
Top '11 Level: MLB
2011 ranking: 73

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
126.1W
4L
9ERA
3.70


SO
142BB
70H
102HR
9BAA
.217
At 6-foot-8, 260 pounds, Betances is huge, throws hard and has a history of missing bats since coming back from Tommy John surgery. But there's still a strong sentiment among pro scouts that he ends up in the bullpen long-term because of command questions. He'll pitch in the low 90s but runs it up to 97 mph and would likely sit 94-97, if not better, in relief. The curveball remains wildly inconsistent, with outings when he doesn't have it at all and outings when it looks like an above-average pitch.

Betances is not a good athlete and struggles to maintain a consistent delivery. When he's in sync, he takes a good, long stride to the plate with a mild shoulder tilt but only a little bit of torque from his hips, generating velocity from his stride and arm. He's also a below-average fielder for a pitcher, not a critical flaw but something you'd rather not see. He's 23 now, still not very experienced, but he has size and velocity you can't teach. The lack of progress and athleticism make a bullpen role more likely than a spot in the top half of a rotation.



Rank Player
84 Enny Romero
Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 24, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: A (Bowling Green)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
114W
5L
5ERA
4.26


SO
140BB
68H
104HR
9BAA
.245
The Dominican-born Romero broke out in his full-season debut in 2011, racking up a ton of strikeouts with a plus fastball and an athletic delivery. Romero sits 91-96 mph as a starter, but mostly 93-94, with two above-average secondary pitches in the curveball and changeup. He's athletic with room to fill out his 6-foot-3, 165-pound frame, potentially adding velocity but more likely just becoming more durable.

His main issues, of course, are command and control, walking more than a guy every other inning last year and still generally working on the art of pitching. But if you want a low-minors lefty with the potential to go all Matt Moore in 2012, this is him.



Rank Player
85 Oswaldo Arcia
Age: 20 (DOB: May 9, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Right field Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '11 Level: A (Fort Myers)
2011 ranking: 74

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
81AB
292HR
13RBI
51SB
3


SO
70BB
18AVG
.291OBP
.335SLG
.531
Arcia got off to a terrific start in his full-season debut in 2011, then missed almost eight weeks after surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He turned 20 during the layoff and moved to high Class A after his return, hitting for power but showing his youth in his approach and allergy to the base on balls. Arcia has huge raw power with a classic left-handed swing that should allow him to hit for average as well.

He showed a large platoon split for the second year in a row with better plate discipline and more power against right-handers. He should be above-average in right field between his range and arm if he can stay healthy, but the elbow problem last year followed a knee injury the year before. Staying healthy and working the count are huge for Arcia during the next year or two, but he has middle-of-the-order upside if he can do those two things.



Rank Player
86 Robbie Grossman
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 16, 1989)
Bats: Switch Throws: Left
Position: Outfield Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: A (Bradenton)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
134AB
490HR
13RBI
56SB
24


SO
111BB
104AVG
.294OBP
.418SLG
.531
Signed for $1 million out of high school, Grossman labors to some degree under the label that he was a "tools guy" when, in fact, his game is much more about polish and instincts than raw physical ability. Grossman has an outstanding eye at the plate -- although he was repeating the Florida State League last year -- with the hand-eye coordination and direct path to make hard contact from both sides of the plate.

He's an average runner with good instincts on the bases and should be above-average defensively in either corner outfield spot -- most likely right. He is more of an emergency guy in center. His power ceiling is limited, although he has good hip rotation hitting left-handed. He's most likely a good corner outfielder with OBPs in the high .300s and 15-20 homers a year, with some upside in both of those offensive categories.



Rank Player
87 Mikie Mahtook
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 30, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Center field Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: College (LSU)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 AFL STATS


GM
18AB
68HR
3RBI
14SB
5


SO
16BB
7AVG
.338OBP
.410SLG
.544
Mahtook should have gone higher in the draft but fell to the Rays with the 31st overall pick despite a massive junior year at LSU, when he hit for more power just as power numbers across the country were down. He's a plus runner with an above-average arm who made great strides in his play in center field. I can't see him moving, but if he has to he can certainly handle right.

At the plate, he's a little late getting his front foot down, but he has the hand acceleration and great hip rotation to drive the ball with good extension. He also has solid plate discipline. On top of that, he's a high-energy player with great makeup who leaves no question that he'll get the most out of his tools. And since his tools are pretty good, I like his chances to be an above-average everyday player in the big leagues.



Rank Player
88 Taylor Guerrieri
Age: 19 (DOB: Dec. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: High School
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GMIPWLERA


SOBBHHRBAA
Guerrieri may have had the best raw stuff of any high school pitcher in last year's draft, although there are two kids from Oklahoma who might beg to differ. He also has an easy delivery and smooth, low-effort arm action. Guerrieri would mostly sit 92-97 mph all spring with heavy sink on the pitch, and his curveball has very tight rotation with well-defined break, more than enough to miss bats in low Class A even though he doesn't really command either pitch yet.

He struggles with his landing point and with getting his front foot down consistently and early. Staying on line to better command the ball and developing a third pitch will have to be major developmental goals for him in the next year or two. Guerrieri also faced major questions about his makeup, more off-field than on, that he'll have to resolve to reach his full potential as a pitcher. If he does, there's No. 1 starter ceiling here.



Rank Player
89 Brett Jackson
Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 2, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Center field Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '11 Level: AAA (Iowa)
2011 ranking: Ten who missed

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
115AB
431HR
20RBI
58SB
21


SO
138BB
73AVG
.274OBP
.379SLG
.490
Jackson has solid tools across the board, but they're mitigated by a longstanding problem with contact that really limits his offensive upside. Jackson has some bat speed with very little load, getting his weight settled late and not letting the ball travel that well. So despite his size and athleticism, he doesn't project for more than average power. He's an above-average runner who can handle center field and could be worth five runs a year or so there in a full season, or he could move to left and potentially be plus there.

But he punched out in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances in Triple-A, and only two big leaguers qualified for the batting title in 2011 with that kind of strikeout rate -- Drew Stubbs and Mark Reynolds, who had a combined OBP of .322. If Jackson can't figure out how to make better contact, he's probably a solid-average regular; but he could be a grade better if his hit tool improves.



Rank Player
90 Jedd Gyorko
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 23, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third base Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: AA (San Antonio)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
140AB
576HR
25RBI
114SB
12


SO
114BB
64AVG
.333OBP
.400SLG
.552
Gyorko is tough to love as a prospect because of his body type, especially the thick, slow lower half. The potential of maintaining conditioning will be harder for him than for most other prospects. But he's demonstrated too strong an ability to barrel up the ball to overlook him, even with his deficiencies. He turns his front leg in early without a stride, so there's not much weight transfer and he stays extremely balanced.

He rotates his hips with his swing to keep his timing, yet sacrifices torque and will have to produce more power with his upper half. He has a very strong approach at the plate and is agile for his size, with soft hands that allow him to stay at third base even with a frame that looks made for first. He's probably a solid-average regular with a chance to be a little more because of the hit tool, which should make up for his fringy defense and lack of power.



Rank Player
91 Chad Bettis
Age: 22 (DOB: April 26, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '11 Level: A (Modesto)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
169.2W
12L
5ERA
3.34


SO
184BB
45H
142HR
10BAA
.225
I still think of Bettis as a future reliever, but his performance this year and quality of his off-speed pitches give him a better chance to start than what I saw from him as an amateur. He showed in 2011 that he could maintain his stuff for 100 pitches, with a solid-average fastball, an improved changeup, and a curveball he uses in addition to the hard-biting slider that was his out pitch when he'd relieve at Texas Tech.

In school he tended to get his front side very low and give the hitters a longer look at the ball, but the Rockies have him more upright and hiding the ball better. He can still cut himself off a little, but his command and control were both far better in 2011 than his college delivery or performance would have led you to believe they'd be. Given the multiple weapons and aggressive approach, there's reason to think he can become a No. 4 starter even with very little improvement over what he is today.



Rank Player
92 Jordan Swagerty
Age: 22 (DOB: July 14, 1989)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: AA (Springfield)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
36IP
93.2W
5L
3ERA
1.83


SO
89BB
23H
68HR
4BAA
.204
Swagerty was a two-pitch reliever at Arizona State who became a scouts' favorite for his high-energy style and aggressive approach to attacking hitters. Since then, he has showed four pitches all projecting as average or better and now projects as a potential mid-rotation starter who could always return to the pen if he can't handle the workload. Swagerty sits at 90-94 mph with that same out-pitch breaking ball he showed in college, but his changeup is improving with use and he has the feel to mix up all four offerings, throwing any pitch in any count, all of them for strikes.

He's tall enough to get plane on the fastball, but his frame isn't broad like most workhorse starters', so there's still some skepticism about his ability to handle 180-plus innings, and he'll need to get left-handers out more consistently. He's strong and athletic with feel, and I hate consigning guys with all of that and at least three pitches to the bullpen, especially since that will always be there as a fallback option if starting doesn't work out.



Rank Player
93 Derek Norris
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 14, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '11 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2011 ranking: 33

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
104AB
334HR
20RBI
46SB
13


SO
117BB
77AVG
.210OBP
.367SLG
.446
Norris can catch, throw, hit for power and take a walk. But for two years now he hasn't hit for average in the minors, remaining on the prospect radar primarily because he plays a position at which the bar is so low that any offense at all is welcome. Behind the plate, his hands aren't the softest but they're playable, and he has a plus arm, consistently under 1.9 seconds from home to second. Pitchers in the Arizona Fall League liked throwing to him, and he has always controlled the running game.

He has worked on lessening a hip glide that left him vulnerable to breaking balls moving away from him, showing progress in that department in Arizona. The trade to Oakland gives him a better path to the majors, and I think he'll hit enough -- at least .250 or so -- to let his other skills play and make him at least a solid-average big league catcher, if not more.



Rank Player
94 Christian Bethancourt
Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 2, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '11 Level: A (Lynchburg)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
99AB
387HR
5RBI
53SB
9


SO
62BB
11AVG
.289OBP
.304SLG
.385
Bethancourt can really catch and throw. He was perhaps the best pure defensive catching prospect in full-season ball last year, with enough arm strength that you could easily see him on a mound if he didn't play the toughest position on the diamond. Behind the plate, he's everything you want in a catching prospect, from soft hands to arm strength to accuracy, and pitchers like working with him.

It's a long swing starting with a near arm-bar and a hip leak that gives him trouble with off-speed stuff, but he's strong enough and gets his hips rotated enough to show you plus-power in BP. I don't know if he'll hit, but he's here because if he hits even a little bit, the other tools make him an everyday player.



Rank Player
95 Javier Baez
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '11 Level: A (Boise)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
5AB
18HR
0RBI
1SB
2


SO
4BB
0AVG
.278OBP
.278SLG
.389
Baez became a top-10 pick largely on the strength of an explosive bat that produces plus power and very loud, hard contact. But he's a better athlete than he's given credit for with very strong instincts on both sides of the ball. He does have a hard time keeping that swing under control, with a tendency to overswing even though he naturally produces power through torque from his hips. His hand acceleration produces tremendous bat speed and he's an average or better runner.

He has the feel for defense and arm strength to play almost any position -- he even caught a little in high school and looked good doing so -- meaning the only questions about him at shortstop are whether he'll outgrow the position and whether he'll put in the work to become an above-average fielder there. If not, third base is an obvious next stop, while he could handle second or, at the absolute worst, right field. If he can cut the swing down when he's not in a fastball count, he has All-Star potential at any infield position.



Rank Player
96 Aaron Sanchez
Age: 19 (DOB: July 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: A (Lansing)
2011 ranking: 99

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
14IP
54.1W
3L
3ERA
5.30


SO
56BB
26H
53HR
4BAA
.255
It wasn't quite the pro debut I'd expected from Sanchez, but after struggling with his control in his first two outings, he implemented an adjustment at Toronto's instruction to keep his front side more closed and produced much better results for the rest of the summer. Sanchez topped out in the mid-90s in just about every start, with an average curveball in the upper-70s and an improving changeup. His arm action is clean and easy, and his body is very projectable, so he could easily sit in the mid-90s in a few years once his body has matured.

He'll need to refine the off-speed pitches and improve his command, which still needs work even with his delivery more on line to the plate. Sanchez, control artist Justin Nicolino and hard-throwing Noah Syndergaard should all start 2012 in Lansing in what will be one of the minors' best prospect rotations, with all three guys strong candidates for next year's list.



Rank Player
97 Addison Reed
Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 27, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Chicago White Sox
Top '11 Level: MLB
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
43IP
78.1W
2L
1ERA
1.26


SO
111BB
14H
43HR
3BAA
.157
Reed was a solid college starter at San Diego State with an average fastball and no projection who suddenly started throwing 95-99 mph when the White Sox moved him to the bullpen last year. Between that pitch and a wipeout slider that became harder and sharper when he moved to relief, he raced through the minors and ended up in the big leagues, showing the the White Sox enough to make them feel comfortable trading closer Sergio Santos (for about 50 cents on the dollar, as it turns out).

Reed's lack of a usable changeup always gave him trouble against left-handed hitters in college, and that and some delivery flaws make a return to the rotation very unlikely. But he could have immediate impact in relief because he can dominate right-handed bats with the stuff he has right now.



Rank Player
98 Randall Delgado
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 9, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '11 Level: MLB
2011 ranking: 50

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
139W
7L
7ERA
1.83


SO
135BB
57H
135HR
15BAA
.255
One thing that became clear during the 2011 season about Atlanta's troika of top pitching prospects is that Delgado, while a strong prospect in his own right, didn't belong in the same discussion as Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino. He didn't possess Teheran's stuff and projection, or Vizcaino's control and plus breaking ball. While those two arms progressed last year, Delgado remains as he was, with a solid-average fastball that will touch 96 mph and an above-average changeup that won't miss enough bats on its own, especially without another pitch to move away from right-handed hitters and keep them honest.

He is still projectable with a loose arm, but the upside of his two system-mates hasn't rubbed off on him. There's a good enough chance that Delgado ends up in the bullpen because of the lack of a third pitch to drop him a level on these rankings, as he's more like a No. 3 or a No. 4 in a rotation or a setup man if he goes to the pen.



Rank Player
99 Neil Ramirez
Age: 22 (DOB: May 25, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '11 Level: AAA (Round Rock)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
98W
5L
3ERA
3.12


SO
119BB
44H
77HR
7BAA
.215
Ramirez took a huge step forward in 2011 that was short-circuited temporarily by some shoulder trouble that cropped up in mid-summer. He'll sit 93-94 mph when fully healthy and reached 97 in big league camp last spring with a plus curveball and solid-average changeup. When he had the chance to jump up to Triple-A for a spot start midyear, he threw well enough that Texas decided to leave him there the rest of the year.

He has cleaned up his delivery substantially since high school, with a slightly long but smoother arm swing that puts less stress on his shoulder and none of the former cross-body action that plagued him before he signed. He seemed fully recovered in the Arizona Fall League, and with a full, healthy season he would be a top 50-60 prospect if he's not already in the majors by then.



Rank Player
100 Blake Swihart
Age: 19 (DOB: April 3, 1992)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '11 Level: Rookie (Gulf Coast)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GMABHRRBISB


SOBBAVGOBPSLG
Swihart is raw on both sides of the ball but extremely athletic with the bat speed and arm strength to profile as a potential All-Star at a number of skill positions. As a hitter, he can get out on his front foot early and doesn't finish rotating his hips to produce the power his swing should allow, but the bat speed is there and he has a decent feel for the strike zone. As a catcher, he can throw and has already improved his release time since signing with Boston.

Having played a number of positions in high school, Swihart needs to work on receiving and game-calling. Given time and regular reps behind the plate, he could be similar to Matt Wieters, a switch-hitting catcher (perhaps with less power) who can add value through catching and throwing. If he has to move to another position, such as third base, he could still end up an above-average big leaguer but would obviously lose a good bit of his value.

51-75.

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51 James Paxton
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 6, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: Double-A (Jackson)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
17IP
95W
6L
3ERA
2.37


SO
131BB
43H
73HR
3BAA
.215
Paxton, who played his college ball at Kentucky, was a top-10 talent in the 2009 draft, but didn't sign with Toronto after it took him in the sandwich round. His plan was to boost his stock with another season of college ball, but he was ruled ineligible for the 2010 season after the NCAA found him in violation of the "no-agent rule." He ended up going to Seattle as a fourth-round pick in 2010, and didn't make his pro debut until 2011.

He was dominant enough in low Class A that the Mariners jumped him two levels to Double-A, which was more appropriate given his age and experience in the SEC, and he was even more dominant after the promotion. Paxton's arm action looks long but he repeats it well and gets good angle on the fastball and breaking ball, working in the low 90s and touching 96 mph, with a much-improved changeup since his amateur days.

He hasn't thrown a ton of innings over the last few years because of the NCAA ruling that forced him to leave school, so the M's will have to work to build up his arm strength, but with the improvements in his command and changeup he looks like a potential No. 2 in a big league rotation who'll rack up a lot of strikeouts.



Rank Player
52 Mike Montgomery
Age: 22 (DOB: July 1, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: AAA (Omaha)
2011 ranking: 28

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
28IP
150.2W
5L
11ERA
5.32


SO
129BB
69H
157HR
15BAA
.271
Heading into last season Montgomery looked poised to step into the Royals' rotation by the second half of 2011, but struggles with his delivery -- and, as a result, his command -- resulted in a disappointing year in Triple-A, a level for which he was still quite young.

The good news for Kansas City fans is that Montgomery's stuff was intact, still sitting 92-95 mph and running up to 96-97 with good downhill plane. He uses his changeup as his out pitch, with excellent arm speed and the ability to command it to both sides of the plate, but his slurvy breaking ball may not be more than a solid-average pitch going forward. He's had elbow issues in the past, but was healthy all of 2011, and while his ERA didn't improve in the second half, his walk rate dropped by about 40 percent.

He's 22, left-handed, with two plus pitches and experience up to Triple-A; he might need to go back to Omaha for a few months but should still at least end up in the middle of a big league rotation.



Rank Player
53 Oscar Taveras
Age: 19 (DOB: June 19, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: A (Quad Cities)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
78AB
308HR
8RBI
62SB
1


SO
52BB
32AVG
.386OBP
.444SLG
.584
Taveras played a little over half a season in the Midwest League, and led the league in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging with a very high contact rate despite a crazy swing.

He loads his hands high and deep, keeping them steady as he starts his stride, even letting them drift higher before he starts his hands -- but his hand acceleration is explosive. He's very rotational, and likes to get his arms fully extended no matter where the ball is, which should leave him vulnerable on the inner half and will make it harder for him to make adjustments. He can end up off balance from the force of the swing, and max-effort swings like this are rare in the big leagues; however, hand-eye coordination like Taveras' is pretty rare, and the fact that he makes so much contact, most of it hard, is a huge positive. He's a potential middle-of-the-order bat with some defensive value in right.



Rank Player
54 Daniel Corcino
Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 26, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '11 Level: A (Dayton)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
139.1W
11L
7ERA
3.42


SO
156BB
34H
128HR
10BAA
.238
Corcino, who's listed at 5-11, 165 pounds, isn't big -- he gets both physical and stuff comparisons to Johnny Cueto -- but he dominated the Midwest League and has been a frequent target for other clubs talking trades with the Reds.

He will work from 92 to 96 mph with a plus changeup and a very aggressive approach with both pitches; he still needs to refine his breaking ball, which is where the Cueto comparison breaks down, but if that pitch comes this year Corcino could move just as quickly through the higher levels.

It was a funny year -- he was lit up in his first two starts in Dayton and his final one, but posted a 2.62 ERA in between, with 146 strikeouts and 29 walks in 127 innings. His arm is extremely quick, but there's some effort from a slot just below three-quarters, and because he lands on the first-base side of the rubber he comes across his body a little bit.

His command, aggressiveness and two plus pitches really set him apart, and he could probably handle a jump to Double-A, which would allow him to avoid the hitters' haven of Bakersfield, Cincy's high Class A affiliate.



Rank Player
55 Gary Sanchez
Age: 19 (DOB: Dec. 2, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: New York Yankees
Top '11 Level: A (Charleston)
2011 ranking: 68

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
82AB
301HR
17RBI
52SB
2


SO
93BB
36AVG
.256OBP
.335SLG
.485
Sanchez's first full year in pro ball had major positives and negatives -- the bat is more advanced than anyone thought, and the glove is less so.

He can really hit with present above-average power and projects to hit 30 to 35 homers a year down the road, having demonstrated a solid approach for an 18-year-old in full-season ball. Sanchez's priority is working on his bat, and his glove has lagged; he has arm strength, and has a better chance to remain a catcher than former Yankees prospect Jesus Montero, but Sanchez's receiving was terrible last year and he'll need to spend more time working on all aspects of his defense besides throwing. Sanchez's immaturity showed up publicly last year, as he was suspended for attitude issues, and while we can forgive him his youth, if it's affecting his play on the field, it affects his outlook until he matures.

He could be a star, the worthy successor to Jorge Posada, if he puts the effort into learning his craft behind the plate.



Rank Player
56 Jonathan Schoop
Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 16, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Infield Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '11 Level: A (Frederick)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
128AB
511HR
13RBI
71SB
12


SO
76BB
42AVG
.290OBP
.349SLG
.432
Schoop (pronounced "skope," which rhymes with "Knope 2012") is a future power hitter in search of a permanent position, spending time last year at third base, shortstop and eventually second base after a surprise promotion to high Class A at age 19.

He gets great extension through the zone, controlling the bat head well, with a balanced, rotational swing that should produce power as he matures. He's a below-average runner who was signed as a shortstop but is likely to outgrow the position; he has the arm for third base and the bat profiles there, so the question is whether the Orioles want to push him to second base for more upside while risking injury. I'd leave him at third and let him focus on hitting, which he does quite well.

An interesting quirk in his stats after the promotion to high-A: He went homerless and hit just .218/.290/.259 in his first 38 games there, but hit .322/.368/.487 with five homers afterwards. That's a sign he knows how to make adjustments.



Rank Player
57 Nick Franklin
Age: 20 (DOB: Mar. 2, 1991)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: AA (Jackson)
2011 ranking: 53

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
88AB
352HR
7RBI
26SB
18


SO
80BB
37AVG
.281OBP
.352SLG
.418
Franklin's season was ruined by factors not likely to affect his long-term development other than the at-bats he lost to injury and illness.

He's a switch-hitter whose right-handed swing is prettier, but he is a much better hitter left-handed -- hitting, power and patience -- despite the fact that he overstrides badly and his back side tends to collapse. He's a good athlete with the arm to handle short; his feet aren't ideal for the position but he has the instincts to handle it in the majors, and so far he's shown he can make all of the critical plays. He's a high-energy player who gets great marks for on-field makeup and aptitude, and if he can avoid the infirmary -- his 2011 was marred by a broken jaw, food poisoning and mono -- he shouldn't lose too much from the half-season off.

If he eventually has to move to second base he still has the ability to be an above-average regular there. At short he has a better chance to be a star because the baseline for that position is so low.



Rank Player
58 Taylor Jungmann
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 18, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '11 Level: College (Texas)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 COLLEGE STATS


GM
19IP
141W
13L
3ERA
1.60


SO
126BB
36H
81HR
4BAA
.165
Jungmann doesn't have the high ceiling of many of the names on this list, but is a very high-probability mid-rotation starter because of his command and relative lack of effort in his delivery.

He can sit 91-93 mph but go back for 94-95 whenever he wants it, and he pairs it with a hammer curveball at 75-78 with two-plane break, as well as a hard changeup he rarely used in college. He's a strike-thrower who commands the ball to both sides of the plate, including the breaking ball. He comes across his body slightly because he starts on the extreme third-base side of the rubber, but lands on line to the plate as if he'd started in the center. The Brewers selected him 12th overall in last June's draft, but a few teams weren't on him as a first-rounder because of some head violence in his delivery after he releases the ball, which might not be great for his health but is late enough that it doesn't affect his command. Jungmann doesn't use his lower half as much as most power pitchers, and lengthening his stride might add a little velocity.

He profiles as a solid No. 3 starter with a chance to pitch above that because he pounds the zone and is aggressive within it.



Rank Player
59 Anthony Gose
Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Center field Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: AA (New Hampshire)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
137AB
509HR
16RBI
59SB
70


SO
154BB
62AVG
.253OBP
.349SLG
.415
Gose isn't a finished product, but he has made enormous strides in the 18 months since Toronto acquired him from Philadelphia by way of Houston, and is young enough that forecasting additional growth for him makes sense.

He is a 70 runner with an 80 arm who can run everything down in center field. In high school he was all tools and had no clue as a hitter -- he was an uncoordinated hacker with no consistency to his stance or weight transfer. Now Gose stays back better and repeats his swing in a way he couldn't before, resulting in higher-quality contact and the chance for average power. His two-strike approach still needs work -- because it doesn't really exist -- and the Blue Jays want to have him work more on shooting the ball to left and even on bunting for hits to make use of his speed.

His defense alone makes him a big leaguer, and even a modest improvement in the two-strike approach makes him a regular, with an All-Star ceiling if he continues to make these large adjustments.



Rank Player
60 George Springer
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 19, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Houston Astros
Top '11 Level: A (Tri-City)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
8AB
28HR
1RBI
3SB
4


SO
2BB
2AVG
.179OBP
.303SLG
.393
Springer -- whom the Astros took with the 11th pick last June -- was one of the toolsiest college position players I've ever come across, with a solid idea of what he was doing at the plate, sliding out of the top 10 only because of questions about his swing mechanics.

The UConn product is an outstanding athlete, an above-average runner with a plus arm and plus raw power. He has tremendous bat speed and can turn on good velocity, with a history of running deep counts although without much of a two-strike approach. For some reason, he started swinging uphill this spring, collapsing his back side in the process and reducing the quality of his contact and leading to concerns that he'll swing and miss too much in pro ball. Perhaps it was "draftitis," trying to hit more home runs to improve his stock, but it's a bad habit and not an easy one to break.

If he gets back to where he was a year ago, Houston got a steal, an impact hitter who hits for power, gets on base, and adds value through right-field defense.



Rank Player
61 Allen Webster
Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '11 Level: AA (Chattanooga)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
145W
11L
5ERA
4.03


SO
135BB
57H
147HR
9BAA
.265
Webster is a converted shortstop who barely pitched in high school but has separated himself from the Dodgers' crop of high-ceiling arms with a great changeup and pretty good feel for pitching for a former position player.

He has excellent arm action and gets on top of the ball well to get sink on his fastball and great deception on a plus-plus changeup, meaning he gets ground balls and has no platoon split to worry about. His slider and curve are both fringe-average at the moment, and his velocity is also solid-average at 90-94, although he'll run it up to 98 from time to time. He's a good athlete who handles his position well and could gain a grade on the fastball if he fills out a little more.

Webster needs repetitions more than anything else, to help refine his command and develop one or both breaking balls, but the sink and the one plus secondary pitch give him a mid-rotation ceiling now with the chance for more.



Rank Player
62 Xander Bogaerts
Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '11 Level: A (Greenville)
2011 ranking: Sleeper

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
72AB
265HR
16RBI
45SB
1


SO
71BB
25AVG
.260OBP
.324SLG
.509
The Red Sox were aggressive with the Aruban-born Bogaerts, promoting him from the Dominican Summer League right to full-season ball, where only Jurickson Profar and Bryce Harper were younger among regular position players. But Bogaerts held his own due to excellent bat speed and enough pitch recognition to keep himself afloat. He starts out very wide at the plate and closes slightly when he gets his front foot down. The ball really comes off his bat well, thanks to strong wrists and forearms and a very rotational swing with great extension through contact.

He spent the year at shortstop, making an error every three games, but isn't likely to stay there with third base the probable destination. He has the arm and feet for it, assuming he does indeed outgrow shortstop. Boston's system is thin right now, with several prospects who project as solid regulars but nothing more. Bogaerts is the Red Sox's best chance right now to produce an All-Star.



Rank Player
63 Chris Archer
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 6, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: AAA (Durham)
2011 ranking: 40

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
147.1W
9L
7ERA
4.09


SO
130BB
86H
147HR
11BAA
.263
Archer's numbers were less than sterling last year, but the stuff and athleticism are intact and some adjustments he made late in the year give some hope that he'll return to form in 2012.

His fastball still sits at 93-95 mph as a starter, but he became overreliant on his very sharp slider last year rather than working to set hitters up and get to counts where it would be most effective. He's touched 97 and his slider, which can be toxic, has hit 89, so he can miss bats in some role. He is an extremely athletic pitcher whose arm works well, with the downside of a dominant two-pitch reliever. He still has that No. 2 starter upside, but he's not out of the prospect danger zone yet and it wouldn't be inappropriate to project him as a closer.



Rank Player
64 Billy Hamilton
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 9, 1990)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '11 Level: A (Dayton)
2011 ranking: 51

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
550HR
3RBI
50SB
103


SO
133BB
52AVG
.278OBP
.340SLG
.360
Hamilton's run grade isn't just an 8 -- it goes to 11. After minor arms trouble limited him in 2010, he stayed healthy for a full season in 2011 and had an incredible 103 stolen bases in 135 games.

He improved over the course of the season as he made adjustments and the weather warmed up. He's a natural right-handed hitter, but was better from the left side in 2011, laying off high fastballs that he previously would just pop up; as a left-handed hitter he's a half-step closer to first and could rack up a mess of infield hits just by bunting or shooting the ball to the left side. He has well below-average power and probably won't ever reach the average mark, and while he has the feet and speed for shortstop, he throws from a low slot that isn't ideal for the longer throw from that side of second base.

He has game-changing speed, however, and a .312/.382/.387 second half with a much better contact rate gives hope that he'll come out strongly in the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2012.



Rank Player
65 Yasmani Grandal
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 8, 198
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: AAA (Louisville)
2011 ranking: 59

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
105AB
374HR
14RBI
68SB
0


SO
97BB
59AVG
.305OBP
.401SLG
.500
I see two potential outcomes for Grandal without much chance he falls in between the two: He's either an All-Star catcher, or a fringy backup who can't receive well enough to play every day but whose bat doesn't profile at first.

Grandal's left-handed swing has better bat speed and more loft than his right-handed swing, which, while playable, is going to produce sizable platoon splits against better pitching, particularly in the power department. The big disappointment with Grandal last year was his receiving; he was always considered a plus defensive catcher in college because of his arm, accuracy and game-calling experience, but he struggled throughout the year and in the Arizona Fall League to catch better velocity he hadn't had to catch as an amateur. He is a disciplined hitter with patience and a good eye, again better from the left side than from the right, and earns high marks for his overall feel for the game.

If the receiving problems were an aberration, he was an outstanding pickup for the Padres -- who got him in the Mat Latos deal -- and perhaps that blip is what made him available. Unfortunately the downside, if they weren't an aberration, is substantial.



Rank Player
66 Zack Cox
Age: 22 (DOB: May 9, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third base Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: AA (Springfield)
2011 ranking: 72

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
516HR
13RBI
68SB
2


SO
98BB
40AVG
.306OBP
.363SLG
.434
Cox went through two levels in 2011, struggling in his first month at each level and then exploding afterwards, hitting for average and power, walking more and striking out less, and generally showing the ability to make adjustments on the fly.

He's cleaned up his swing and keeps his head steady, much like he did as an underclassman at Arkansas, so pitchers can't bust him inside as easily. He'll show above-average raw power in BP, but so far it's not translating to games, at least partly because he focuses on using the whole field and doesn't try to turn on pitches on the inner half. At third base, he'll never be above-average but should be adequate; many of his miscues last year came on popups, of all things, and he does have a plus arm. He did show a platoon split all season -- all 13 of his homers last year came against righties -- and he still has to work on defense and getting that power to play after the game starts.

There's a potential above-average regular here who'll hit for average and power, but if he has to move to first base he'll be off this list.



Rank Player
67 Josh Bell
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 14, 1992)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: Prep (Dallas Jesuit)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 HIGH SCHOOL STATS


GM
44AB
NAHR
14RBI
55SB
19


SO
NABB
NAAVG
.552OBP
.687SLG
1.073
One of the most exciting high school hitters in last year's draft -- which, for all its strengths, wasn't great for prep bats -- Bell stunned the industry by taking a $5 million signing bonus from the Pirates after claiming before the draft that he wasn't signing at any price and was headed to the University of Texas.

As a left-handed hitter, Bell reminds me of Jason Heyward (before the shoulder injury), with leverage for all-fields power and unusual hand acceleration that allows him to let the ball travel deeper before he commits to a swing. His right-handed swing isn't as quick or smooth, and he's probably a left fielder due to below-average run and arm tools. But the bat, while a few years off, has the ceiling of an All-Star even at an offense-first position, with power, average and the promise at least of some patience as well.



Rank Player
68 Gary Brown
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 28, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: San Francisco
Top '11 Level: A (San Jose)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
131AB
559HR
14RBI
80SB
53


SO
77BB
46AVG
.336OBP
.407SLG
.519
Brown is at least a 70 runner who covers a ton of ground in center field and profiles as an above-average regular in the big leagues because of the value he'll add on defense.

He is one of the fastest right-handed hitters I've ever clocked from home to first -- the fastest is the prospect at the top of this list -- and his hands are very quick, allowing him to stay inside the ball well. But his swing is very linear and he doesn't let the ball travel, so there's not much present or future power here. And while he makes a ton of contact he's never been a high-walk guy to potentially generate .400 OBPs.

He'll probably end up cast as a leadoff type because of his speed, but I see more of a .300 hitter without great secondary skills who saves 10 runs a year with his glove in center.



Rank Player
69 Yonder Alonso
Age: 24 (DOB: Apr. 8, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: First base Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: Majors (Reds)
2011 ranking: 65

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
91AB
358HR
12RBI
56SB
6


SO
60BB
46AVG
.296OBP
.374SLG
.486
Alonso's power hasn't bounced back all the way from a broken hamate bone he suffered in July 2009, but I still think he's at least a 20-to-25 homer guy who profiles as an average to above-average first baseman in the long run.

He has good balance at the plate with plenty of hip rotation to drive the ball, but his bat speed is just solid-average and until 2011 he had never hit left-handed pitching well. His .330/.398/.585 line in his brief big league call-up isn't indicative of how he'll perform in the short term, especially since he barely saw any left-handed pitching, but he could end up a .280/.360/.500 guy going forward. He's an adequate defender at first who should never be allowed to try left field again.

He was blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati, but was sent to San Diego this winter as part of the Mat Latos deal, and he should be the Padres' first baseman on Opening Day. Assuming Petco doesn't flatten him, he's got enough bat to have value at first base, but won't be a star unless he finds more power than expected or closes his platoon split.



Rank Player
70 Garrett Richards
Age: 23 (DOB: May. 27, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '11 Level: Majors (Angels)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
143W
12L
2ERA
3.15


SO
103BB
40H
123HR
10BAA
.233
Richards' wildness in college has disappeared since the Angels took him 42nd overall in the 2009 draft out of Oklahoma, pushing him to a major league debut in just his second full year in pro ball.

He works with a 70 fastball as a starter, pitching at 94-100 mph, with an inconsistent, short, 84-87 mph slider that ranges from solid-average to plus, and some feel for a changeup. He holds his velocity deep into games and works in the lower half of the zone to generate some ground balls. The changeup is solid-average, without much action but with good arm speed. Richards' arm is loose and easy, with the path a little long but with nothing to prevent him from working as a starter. It's not clear why a guy with this kind of stuff doesn't generate more strikeouts, and the low ERA in the minors last season was at least partly a function of a very pitcher-friendly home park at Double-A Arkansas.

He has No. 2 starter stuff, but may be a backend guy if he can't rack up more strikeouts.



Rank Player
71 Jake Odorizzi
Age: 21 (DOB: March 27, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: AA (Northwest Arkansas)
2011 ranking: Ten who missed

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
147W
10L
7ERA
3.73


SO
157BB
44H
134HR
17BAA
.244
Odorizzi came over to Kansas City in the Zack Greinke trade and fits the Casey Kelly/Zach Lee mold of a supreme athlete with a pretty delivery but doesn't miss enough bats with his secondary stuff, at least not yet. His real calling card is his command, especially of the fastball, which is key because his velocity is typically in the low 90s, not the 95-96 range where his command wouldn't have to be as fine. The lack of life on the pitch really hurt him in AA, where he became fly ball- and homer-prone. He's still throwing both a curve and slider; it's a curveball arm slot, but his curve is on the slow side while the slider gives him something to get under a left-handed hitter's hands.

Neither is an above-average pitch for him yet, and he may be better off choosing one and scrapping the other. He does have a solid-average changeup with good feel for the pitch, and the delivery is smooth and easy to repeat with minimal effort. He has a No. 2/3 ceiling but has to make one of two adjustments to get there -- either he learns to work down in the zone with the fastball or one of the breaking balls develops to the point where it misses bats.



Rank Player
72 Starling Marte
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 9, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Center field Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: AA (Altoona)
2010 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
129AB
536HR
12RBI
50SB
24


SO
100BB
22AVG
.332OBP
.370SLG
.500
Marte has tremendous tools and has moved aggressively through Pittsburgh's system despite a real lack of polish at the plate that makes him a very high-beta prospect. He could end up a 60 (occasional All-Star), and he could end up a 45 (fourth outfielder), without a whole lot of in between. At the plate, Marte has quick wrists and can hit a good fastball, but he has no stride and limited weight transfer. His hips glide forward, but he is very rotational with good extension, so getting his legs involved could produce above-average power.

He's a plus runner but not a good instinctive baserunner yet, in line with his lack of discipline at the plate. His 19 unintentional walks last year represented a career best for Marte in a single season, giving him 44 in more than 1,100 plate appearances since he came to the U.S. Word is that the Pirates and Royals have been discussing a merger not just of franchises, but of players, led by hybrid center fielder Bubba Starling Marte, a player so talented that even his tools would have tools. If that falls through, the Pirates might have a successor to Andrew McCutchen, or just a maddening bench guy who looks like he should be a star.



Rank Player
73 Sonny Gray
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 7, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '11 Level: AA (Midland)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
6IP
22W
1L
1ERA
0.82


SO
20BB
6H
19HR
0BAA
.241
Gray was a controversial guy in last year's draft given his certain first-round status, with some clubs seeing a sub-6-foot right-hander who projected as a closer. But others -- including Oakland -- saw plus makeup and an aggressive starter with three weapons including a hammer curveball that will miss big league bats. I incline toward the latter view, as starters who can pitch at 91-94 and dial up more when needed with that kind of curveball and a pretty good split-like changeup are hard to find.

The concerns I have on Gray are that there's some effort in his delivery, with late elbow pronation, and his fastball doesn't have much plane because he's not that tall. However, his velocity comes mostly from a big stride toward the plate, not from his upper half. As for plane, he does try to work down in the zone and had a strong ground-ball rate in his brief time in AA.

It was a tiny sample, but he faced 70 batters for Midland and gave up just one extra-base hit. I understand why scouts see him as a reliever, but there's plenty of chance here for him to be not just a starter, but a good one in the top three spots in a rotation, and I wouldn't bet against a competitor like Gray.



Rank Player
74 Tyrell Jenkins
Age: 19 (DOB: July 20, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: Rookie (Johnson City)
2011 ranking: Sleeper

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
11IP
56W
4L
2ERA
3.86


SO
55BB
13H
63HR
3BAA
.296
Jenkins was a three-sport star in high school who turned down a commitment to Baylor in favor of the long road to the majors (and a $1.3 million bonus) that could culminate in a spot at or near the top of a rotation. Jenkins is, as you'd imagine, extremely athletic, but had less baseball experience than the typical U.S. high school pitching prospect. So the Cardinals have taken it slowly with him, holding off his full-season debut until this upcoming season. He'll pitch in the low 90s but can touch 96-97. His curveball is already above-average, and the changeup has developed substantially in his year-plus in St. Louis' system.

Jenkins' control is solid -- he never walked more than two men in any of his 11 outings last year -- but his command is still a work in progress as the Cardinals work with him on consistency in his delivery. He has a high leg kick and stays online to the plate, getting good extension out front that gives the hitter even less time than normal to pick up the pitch. He's also a strong competitor who is willing to mix all his pitches and won't back off a pitch if he makes a mistake with it. He's not polished enough yet to be in the top third of this list, but a full season of pitching and the progress that should come with it would make him one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.



Rank Player
75 Mike Olt
Age: 23 (DOB: Aug. 27, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third base Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '11 Level: A (Myrtle Beach)
2010 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
73AB
254HR
15RBI
46SB
0


SO
75BB
49AVG
.264OBP
.381SLG
.500
A potentially plus defender at third with plus raw power, Olt has seen the ball much better as a pro than he did as an amateur, resulting in better-than-expected plate discipline that gives him a chance to be at least an average regular at third. Olt can launch balls in BP, but his approach is now less pull-happy than it was in college, with very good bat speed and great extension on his follow-through for power to left and the ability to use the middle of the field.

He missed two months this summer with a broken collarbone, but was 100 percent again for fall league and led the AFL in home runs (helped by a very homer-friendly ballpark). His contact rates probably won't ever be great, but even an average hit tool with plus power and defense at third makes for a fringe star.

26-50.

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26 Nolan Arenado
Age: 20 (DOB: April 16, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '11 Level: A (Modesto)
2011 ranking: 92

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
134AB
517HR
20RBI
122SB
2


SO
53BB
47AVG
.298OBP
.349SLG
.487
Arenado improved his game across the board in 2011. He has a great, simple swing, short to the ball with good pitch recognition, leading to very high contact rates throughout his pro career. The Cal League is generally a hitters' league, but the best hitters' parks are in the southern division (Modesto is in the north), and it's historically a great league for strikeouts, making Arenado's rate in 2011, just over 9 percent, even more amazing.

This year he rotated his hips a little more, improving his power potential, and still extended his arms very well through contact. On defense, where he was once likely to move to first base (or even to catcher) despite good hands and arm strength, Arenado is now likely to stay at third, thanks to improvements to his footwork and his own efforts to maximize his agility despite heavy feet. In a neutral park, Arenado would project as at least a 20-25 homer guy with a high batting average as well as at least solid-average defense at third. You may adjust your expectations in Coors accordingly.



Rank Player
27 Zack Wheeler
Age: 21 (DOB: May 30, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Mets
Top '11 Level: A (St. Lucie)
2011 ranking: 36

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
115W
9L
7ERA
3.52


SO
129BB
52H
100HR
7BAA
.231
Wheeler was stolen from the Giants for two months of Carlos Beltran's services in a deadline deal that should benefit the Mets for much of this decade.

He will touch 97 mph and sit at least 91-94 with an above-average curveball that has shown it can miss bats. He has a fringy changeup that's a little too firm, giving up a .283/.375/.452 line to left-handed hitters as a result (although that improved after the trade in a small sample). His control is still below-average, and he'll have to show durability to match his frame, as he retired more than 18 batters just twice all year.



Rank Player
28 Miguel Sano
Age: 18 (DOB: May 11, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '11 Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
2011 ranking: 29

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
66AB
267HR
20RBI
59SB
5


SO
77BB
23AVG
.292OBP
.352SLG
.637
One thing is certain about Miguel Sano: when he makes contact, he can mash, hitting .411 and slugging .895 last year in at-bats when he didn't strike out. He has outstanding bat speed and good balance at the plate, and he may have grade-70 or 80 power when all is said and done.

He's got a plus arm and has improved at third base to the point where footwork won't hold him back. Sano's main issues are his size and his plate discipline. He's already about 230 pounds, and if he gets any bigger, he'll have to move off of third base; he's athletic for his size, but may just outgrow the position despite his best efforts. His recognition of off-speed stuff isn't great, and his contact rates aren't either. The good news is that he won't turn 19 until May, and there's plenty of time for him to improve in that department. His bat should play at any position; at third base, he's a superstar, and maybe he still will be at first, with 35-plus homer potential if he can make enough contact to get to it.



Rank Player
29 Jacob Turner
Age: 20 (DOB: May 21, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '11 Level: Majors (Tigers)
2011 ranking: 22

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
20IP
131W
4L
5ERA
3.44


SO
110BB
35H
117HR
10BAA
.238
Turner took a small step backward in 2011, but remains the Tigers' best prospect and the only potential impact starter in their system.

He'll show the upper 90s occasionally but still works mostly at 89-95 mph. His fastball has some life but is mostly up in the zone, resulting in more contact than you'd expect from his velocity. His curveball, 79-83, is hard and breaks down very sharply to change hitters' eye levels and get those swings and misses he's not getting yet on the fastball. His changeup remains very hard and he doesn't command the pitch as well as he commands the other two offerings.

Turner won't turn 21 until May and still has the lightning-fast arm that made him an elite prospect in the first place. He's nearly a full season removed from forearm tightness that limited his workload in 2010, and there's a potential top-end starter in here, but he's got more work to do to reach that point than I thought at this time last season.



Rank Player
30 Danny Hultzen
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: AFL (Peoria)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 AFL STATS


GM
6IP
19.1W
1L
0ERA
1.40


SO
18BB
5H
16HR
1BAA
.225
Hultzen was the highest-probability college arm in the 2011 Rule 4 draft, and went second overall on that basis despite lacking the ceiling of pitchers I ranked ahead of him, including Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, and Archie Bradley.

The University of Virginia product will probably pitch with average velocity when he's working every fifth day in pro ball, although he's touched 94 in the past, but the separator for him is his ability to locate the pitch. His best pitch is a changeup, usually above-average if not better, but the pitch wasn't working for him in the Arizona Fall League after a four-month layoff. His slider was fringy all spring but a little sharper in the fall; his command is his main calling card, but he's smart enough to be able to compete on days he's not locating that well. Hultzen repeats his delivery well, drifting forward off the rubber with a moderate stride but a noticeable arm wrap; he gets over his front side well with a late release point.

He's probably a solid No. 3 in a good big league rotation, maybe slightly less than that, but with the advantage of needing very little time in the minors to continue to develop.



Rank Player
31 Jarrod Parker
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 24, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Oakland A's
Top '11 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2010 ranking: 25

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
130.2W
11L
8ERA
3.79


SO
112BB
55H
112HR
7BAA
.236
*Missed 2010 season Parker's comeback from Tommy John surgery looks completely successful at this point, culminating in a big league debut at the end of the 2011 season and an offseason trade to Oakland that should give him a spot in the A's Opening Day rotation.

He can still run it up to 96-97 mph, but now uses a two-seamer in addition to the straighter four-seamer to generate more ground balls and make the four-seamer more effective up in the zone. His changeup has improved substantially since high school, showing plus at times and giving him a weapon for days when his slider isn't as sharp. He's listed at 6-foot-1, which is a little short for a pitcher, and there are some concerns about a lack of downward plane on his fastball. The two-seamer mitigates that worry, and despite the elbow surgery his arm actually works pretty well.

He's probably a strong No. 2 down the road but with immediate value at the back of a rotation as he continues to work on setting up hitters and getting more consistency with his off-speed offerings.



Rank Player
32 Casey Kelly
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 4, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: AA (San Antonio)
2011 ranking: 19

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
142.1W
11L
6ERA
3.98


SO
105BB
46H
153HR
8BAA
.278
Kelly has now seen two real velocity spikes since coming into pro ball, hitting 95-96 mph on a regular basis, but hasn't put everything together to produce a year where he misses bats like someone with his raw stuff should.

He was working in the middle of the plate too much in 2011, but moved to the first base side of the rubber later in the year to produce more late life over the outside corner to right-handed hitters. His curveball showed better shape and angle this year -- although it's never been quite as sharp as it was in high school -- and his changeup remains above-average thanks to good arm speed. He shows no platoon split, has solid-average control, and keeps the ball down. His delivery is incredibly easy, and he's a plus fielder thanks to his incredible athleticism. He just doesn't miss bats, but has the weapons to do so. Everything else is in place for him to be a solid No. 2 starter.



Rank Player
33 A.J. Cole
Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 5, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Oakland A's
Top '11 Level: A (Hagerstown)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
20IP
89W
4L
7ERA
4.04


SO
108BB
24H
87HR
6BAA
.251
Cole was an arm-strength guy out of high school with size and questions about his commitment to baseball, but he answered those with a strong 2011 where he showed new dedication to his craft, becoming more of a pitcher and less of just a thrower over the course of his first full season in pro ball. He was then sent to the A's this winter in the Gio Gonzalez trade.

He was hitting 98 mph regularly by the late summer, working in the mid-90s with better command of the pitch than he'd had before. His curveball still comes and goes, but his feel for the changeup -- a pitch he didn't use much in high school -- advanced substantially. Cole was kept on tight pitch counts by the Nationals, but never walked more than three men in any appearance and walked two or fewer in 17 of his 20 outings on the year. He's still growing into his angular 6-foot-4, 180-pound frame and should pick up muscle to add durability; it's probably a good three years until he makes an impact in Oakland, but he's got at least a No. 2 starter's ceiling.



Rank Player
34 Mason Williams
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 21, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: New York Yankees
Top '11 Level: A (Staten Island)
2010 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
68AB
269HR
3RBI
31SB
28


SO
41BB
20AVG
.349OBP
.395SLG
.468
Williams, the son of former New England Patriot Derwin Williams, is an outstanding athlete who showed a much better approach and feel for the game in his first full year in pro ball than expected.

He's an above-average-to-plus runner with a plus arm, but the most impressive part of his game in 2011 was the quality of his at bats, which improved over the course of the summer. He's listed at 6 feet, 150 pounds, and has barely begun to fill out; much of the 'power' you see in his stat line was the product of his speed (six triples in 68 games), but he has the hip rotation and leverage to hit for real power when he's not quite so skinny. His bat is quick, but his stride is very long and he glides on to his front side, so he doesn't have as much time as he should to pick up off-speed pitch.

Williams finished second in the New York-Penn League in batting average, 10th in OBP, and 14th in slugging despite being one of the 10 youngest regulars in the league, and he's barely begun to scratch the surface of his ability.



Rank Player
35 Francisco Lindor
Age: 18 (DOB: Nov. 14, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '11 Level: A (Mahoning Valley)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
5AB
19HR
0RBI
2SB
1


SO
5BB
1AVG
.316OBP
.350SLG
.316
The Puerto Rican-born Lindor was one of the youngest prospects in last year's draft, and was also one of its only true shortstops, making him a top-10 pick in a loaded class.

Lindor has four tools for certain, with power the only real question. He has very soft hands and easy actions at shortstop, with range in both directions, a plus arm, and quick feet that should also result in strong stolen base totals. At the plate, he keeps his hands inside the ball extremely well and has good hand speed, projecting to hit for average and doubles power down the road. He grew over the course of his senior year in high school and started to hit for more power with the metal bat, but is most likely a 10-15 homer guy unless he has another unexpected spurt.

Lindor plays with a ton of energy and gets good marks all around for his makeup, making him a likely candidate to jump into the top 20 after his full-season debut in 2012.



Rank Player
36 Anthony Rizzo
Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 8, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '11 Level: Majors (Padres)
2011 ranking: 38

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
93AB
356HR
26RBI
101SB
7


SO
89BB
43AVG
.331OBP
.404SLG
.652
In the last year, Rizzo has been traded from the organization that drafted him (Red Sox), torn apart a good Triple-A hitters' park (Tucson), scuffled in the majors' best pitchers park (Petco), and been traded a second time to the organization that hired the people who drafted him (Cubs). And he's still just 22 years old.

Rizzo is a plus-fielding, plus-makeup, power-hitting first baseman -- just as he was last winter when he looked like he'd become Adrian Gonzalez's long-term successor in San Diego -- with more of an average hit tool and a history of wide platoon splits. He has a year less experience than the typical prospect his age due to Hodgkin lymphoma that cost him most of the 2008 season. He's got a good feel for the strike zone, evident even during his major league struggles, and the power to profile as an above-average or better first baseman on offense.

He just might need another half-year in Triple-A to work on recognizing changing speeds, especially from left-handed pitchers.



Rank Player
37 Nick Castellanos
Age: 19 (DOB: March 4, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '11 Level: A (West Michigan)
2011 ranking: 75

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
507HR
7RBI
76SB
3


SO
130BB
45AVG
.312OBP
.367SLG
.436
Castellanos' ceiling hasn't changed in the last year -- impact power hitter with above-average defense at third base -- but he did prove to be less advanced as a player in 2011 than he appeared to be (to me, at least) out of high school.

He still projects to have four plus tools (running is the exception), with strong hands, a simple swing, and the leverage to produce 20-plus home run power when he matures. At third base, his arm is strong but his footwork is poor, getting tangled up to the point where it affects his fielding and throwing; he's loose and athletic enough to improve, but it's going to take time, as will improving his pitch recognition.

He started horribly in 2011, but hit .332/.385/.470 after May 1, striking out less often but not walking as much as he should. He was the sixth-youngest regular in the Midwest League in 2011 and will likely be one of the youngest players in the Florida State League this year, but may need to stick to a level a year to work on his plate discipline so he can fully tap his offensive potential.



Rank Player
38 Matt Harvey
Age: 22 (DOB: Mar. 27, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Mets
Top '11 Level: AA (Binghamton)
2011 ranking: 83

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
135.2W
13L
5ERA
3.32


SO
156BB
47H
125HR
9BAA
.246
Harvey's strong season in Double-A showed that he's not that far away from contributing in the big leagues, but also masked some of the ongoing questions about his repertoire and command that probably push him toward a good No. 3 or average No. 2 ceiling.

He will sit 91-97 mph as a starter with good downhill plane, and his changeup is a weapon for him against both left- and right-handed hitters. His curve and slider tend to run together, and he'd probably be better off just picking one or the other and using it exclusively to avoid throwing in-between pitches that will get hammered at higher levels.

The UNC product didn't dominate Double-A like you'd expect him to based on his velocity, but a sharper breaking ball could produce those results and get him to the big leagues by the middle of this year.



Rank Player
39 Wily Peralta
Age: 22 (DOB: May 8, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '11 Level: AAA (Nashville)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
150.2W
11L
7ERA
3.17


SO
157BB
59H
127HR
9BAA
.233
The question on Peralta was whether the strikeout totals would catch up to his stuff, but they did in 2011, to the point where he is probably the Brewers' best option for the fifth spot in the rotation (which he probably won't get on Opening Day).

Peralta is big, 6-2, 240 pounds, but handles his size well on the mound with good balance and a long stride to get more velocity. He'll sit 94-97 mph as a starter with an above-average slider and average changeup, with slight sink on the fastball and solid-average control. He's still working on feel and command, but has enough raw stuff to get hitters out as the latter develops. This ability to miss bats makes him much more likely to remain a starter, probably a No. 2 or No. 3 in a good rotation, but with the chance to add value right away because of the velocity.



Rank Player
40 Rymer Liriano
Age: 20 (DOB: June 20, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: A (Lake Elsinore)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
131AB
510HR
12RBI
68SB
66


SO
108BB
53AVG
.298OBP
.365SLG
.465
Liriano came out of nowhere in 2011 after a forgettable 2010 season that saw him post a .288 OBP across three levels with little power to go along with it.

He repeated the Midwest League last year, however, and destroyed it, showing all five tools and becoming the Padres' top position-player prospect. He's a physical specimen who earns body comps to (young) Sammy Sosa and Raul Mondesi, with plus arm and run grades today and future-plus grades in the other three categories. He has electric bat speed that makes up for current weaknesses in his approach, such as fringy recognition of breaking stuff and poor recognition of changeups, but he already has the raw power to drive an off-speed pitch out the other way if he can pick up the spin.

He'll probably slow down as he gets to his mid-20s because he's already about 6 feet and 220 pounds, but a right fielder who saves 5-10 runs a year with the potential for a .300 average, 30 homers, and 30-plus steals is a really rare and valuable commodity.



Rank Player
41 Zach Lee
Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 13, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '11 Level: A (Great Lakes)
2011 ranking: 91

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
24IP
109W
9L
6ERA
3.47


SO
91BB
32H
101HR
9BAA
.242
Lee reminds me of Casey Kelly, in that both are hyper-athletic former quarterbacks with easy, picturesque deliveries, solid stuff, and strikeout rates a little below what you'd expect.

But as with Kelly, Lee projects to keep getting better with time and experience -- and it's always good to bet on the athlete when there's at least some history of performance. Lee will pitch at 90-97 mph on his best days with good command and great arm speed on his changeup, with a delivery he repeats extremely well. His breaking ball remains a work in progress, but did improve over the course of the season, and when that arrives, the strikeouts should follow.

At worst, he's a solid three, but there's some potential for him to front a rotation when he fills out if the breaking ball should advance even further than expected.



Rank Player
42 Drew Hutchison
Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 22, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: AA (New Hampshire)
2011 ranking: Sleeper

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
28IP
149.1W
14L
5ERA
2.53


SO
171BB
35H
120HR
4BAA
.220
Hutchison took a huge leap forward in 2011, putting on some weight and seeing his stuff start to inch up, topping out at 94 mph on a regular basis. He'll sit at 91-92 but with uncanny feel for pitching for his age, and deception and angle from a slightly cross-body arm action. That delivery isn't ideal for long-term health, but he gets to his glove side fine and benefits from the way it limits right-handers' looks at the ball. His slider flashes plus right now up to 84 with good tilt, and the changeup has been plus dating back to when the Jays drafted him.

Hutchison projects as a solid No. 3 right now, but with the command and feel to be more if his velocity continues to improve and that cross-body delivery holds up. I like his chances to take one more big step in 2012 and even sniff the big leagues by September.



Rank Player
43 Cheslor Cuthbert
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 16, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: A (Kane County)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
81AB
300HR
8RBI
51SB
2


SO
65BB
36AVG
.267OBP
.345SLG
.397
Cuthbert was born on the Corn Islands off the coast of Nicaragua, and signed with the Royals in 2009 for $1.35 million, a record bonus for a Nicaraguan-born prospect but a number that looks quite small given how well he played in 2011 as the Midwest League's youngest regular.

He has a fantastic approach for his age and a smooth right-handed swing with excellent rotation and good extension through the zone, although he can let his hips glide forward before contact. He has good hands and a strong arm with the athleticism to stay at third base. He's over some back trouble that bothered him for much of 2010 through instructional league, and he's going to have to develop more power to profile as a star at third base, but between the rotational swing and the good hand-eye coordination he's a solid bet to do so.



Rank Player
44 Jean Segura
Age: 21 (DOB: March 17, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '11 Level: A (Inland Empire)
2011 ranking: 35

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
52AB
215HR
4RBI
26SB
18


SO
29BB
15AVG
.293OBP
.341SLG
.447
It was a lost season for Segura, who lost three months to a hamstring strain and spent the fall trying to at least make up for the missed at-bats in the Arizona Fall League and Dominican Winter League.

The good news is that he is still going to stay at shortstop for the time being, although it's not clear he'll be able to stay there long-term. He has an extremely short, direct swing to produce line drives, and did a better job this year staying upright instead of trying to hit for power he doesn't really have. He's an above-average runner when his legs are working, quick enough for shortstop with sufficient arm strength. The 2011 season marked the third time in four years he'd lost significant time to injury, and if he doesn't pan out, health will likely be the reason.

If he overcomes the injury bug and stays at short, he's a possible All-Star who should hit for average and add value on the bases; at second, he's more of an average to fringe-average regular because of the limited upside in his bat.



Rank Player
45 Drew Pomeranz
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 22, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '11 Level: Majors (Rockies)
2011 ranking: 60

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
20IP
101W
4L
3ERA
1.78


SO
119BB
38H
68HR
3BAA
.189
Pomeranz and Alex White were the main players going to Colorado in July's Ubaldo Jimenez trade; and while White is closer to the big leagues, Pomeranz has a greater chance of succeeding as a starter.

The southpaw will sit 90-94 with a plus curveball and a much improved changeup from his junior year at Mississippi. He destroyed left-handed batters in 2011, holding them to a .130/.175/.174 line while striking out 47 of 97 batters and walking four, but was effective against right-handed hitters thanks to the change. Pomeranz has had trouble maintaining a consistent delivery -- Cleveland cleaned up his arm action in back, but he would regress to his old, more violent delivery -- and, not coincidentally, he's had some minor shoulder pain along the way.

If he can find and stick with a cleaner, repeatable arm action, he has the potential to be a No. 2 starter who misses a lot of bats.



Rank Player
46 Jonathan Singleton
Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 18, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base Organization: Houston Astros
Top '11 Level: A (Lancaster)
2011 ranking: 27

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
128AB
449HR
13RBI
63SB
3


SO
123BB
70AVG
.298OBP
.392SLG
.441
Singleton was the main piece Philadelphia sent to Houston in July's Hunter Pence trade; he's a first baseman with a beautiful swing but a long way to go before he has real impact in the big leagues.

He has great balance and plate coverage, excellent ball-strike recognition, and good hip rotation and extension through the zone that could lead to 30-homer power. The Phillies tried him in left field, but it didn't take, so his future is back at first base, and their attempt to change his stance by having him hit more off his toes resulted in a long funk early in the year. He's also had issues with left-handed pitching, which reduces him right now to a singles hitter.

Singleton is still just also 20 years old and, if the Astros so choose, ready for Double-A, where he'd be among the youngest regulars.



Rank Player
47 Jake Marisnick
Age: 20 (DOB: March 30, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: A (Lansing)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
118AB
462HR
14RBI
77SB
37


SO
91BB
43AVG
.320OBP
.392SLG
.496
Marisnick repeated the Midwest League in 2011 and turned in a breakout season where all five of his tools were on display, as well as a cleaner swing that eliminated the slight reloading hitch he had in high school. He repeats his swing well for line-drive power, and has the hip rotation to drive the ball out as he gets stronger.

His arm is plus and while he's not a burner, his reads in center are good enough to grade his defense there as plus as well. Marisnick is also a very hard worker who has impressed the Jays' staff with his ability to make adjustments. Don't be surprised to see him get to Double-A this year.



Rank Player
48 Christian Yelich
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 5, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '11 Level: A (Greensboro)
2011 ranking: 79

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
122AB
461HR
15RBI
77SB
32


SO
102BB
55AVG
.312OBP
.388SLG
.484
Yelich is a pure hitter who jumped to the Sally League as a 19-year-old and was among the best hitters in the league.

He's a disciplined hitter with very quick hands and a smooth, left-handed swing that produces doubles power now and should produce at least 20-homer power down the road. Yelich's problem is on defense, where his throwing motion -- which the Marlins believed they could fix, or at least tweak -- earns comparisons to Shannon Stewart and other famous noodle-armed outfielders, limiting him to left field or possibly first base. Like most young left-handed hitters, he showed some platoon split, although his line against southpaws (.256/.337/.391, with a 24 percent strikeout rate) was good enough to give some hope that he can close the gap.

He could be the hitter Adam Lind looked like in 2009, but with better feel for the strike zone and a chance to stay in left field.



Rank Player
49 Joe Ross
Age: 18 (DOB: May 21, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: Rookie (AZL)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
1IP
1W
0L
0ERA
0.00


SO
0BB
0H
2HR
0BAA
.400
After last fall's instructional league, Ross (the 25th overall pick in the 2011 draft) was earning talk as the steal of the first round. Ross, whose older brother Tyson pitches in the Oakland system, is an extremely athletic, high-upside starter with enough present stuff and polish to move quickly through the low minors.

He'll pitch at 90-95 mph and has shown better in shorter stints, with real angle on the pitch from a three-quarters arm slot. His hard slurve was sharper in instructs than it had been before, and his changeup, currently solid-average, projects as an above-average to plus pitch. He's not quite the athlete that system-mate Casey Kelly is, but is in a similar mold, with a clean delivery and more velocity than Kelly had at the same age. Ross projects as at least a solid No. 2 starter.



Rank Player
50 Eddie Rosario
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 28, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '11 Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
2011 ranking: UR

2011MINORS STATS


GM
67AB
270HR
21RBI
60SB
17


SO
60BB
27AVG
.337OBP
.397SLG
.670
Rosario, a fourth-round pick in 2010 out of Puerto Rico, reached base three times in his first game of 2011, three times in his last game, and never really stopped hitting in between, leading the Appy League in triples, homers, and slugging percentage.

He has a noisy lower half and can bar his lead arm, but he's got lightning-quick wrists and very strong forearms to produce this kind of power from a modest frame, and he showed solid plate discipline against right-handed pitchers. He's an above-average runner with the arm for center, with a very good chance to stay there with more work on reads.

He's very high-risk, high-reward, but there could be Carlos Gonzalez here given enough time.

1-25.

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Welcome to ESPN Insider's 2012 ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.



This is the fifth year I have done these rankings for Insider, and for the first time, we have a repeater at No. 1 (and, as it turns out, at No. 2). There were still a number of high-profile graduations from last year's list, starting with Eric Hosmer at No. 5 and Dustin Ackley at No. 7, and a trade that saw last year's No. 4 and 21 prospects, Jesus Montero and Michael Pineda, respectively, exchanged for each other earlier this offseason. This year's list benefits from a major infusion of high-end talent from the 2011 Rule 4 draft, one of the strongest draft classes in years.



The Guidelines


• The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1.


• Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.



• I do not consider players with experience in Nippon Professional Baseball "prospects" for the purposes of this exercise, which means no Yu Darvish.



• When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.



• I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Mike Stanton has 80 raw power. Bengie Molina has 20 speed. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.



• I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 last offseason. An "ineligible" player (IE) was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an "unranked" player (UR) was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers list or list of 10 players who just missed the cut.


Law's complete top 100: Index | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100



Rank Player
1 Mike Trout
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 7, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '11 Level: Majors (Angels)
2011 ranking: 1

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
131AB
353HR
11RBI
38SB
33


SO
76BB
45AVG
.326OBP
.414SLG
.544
Of the top three prospects on this year's list -- all viable candidates for the top spot -- Trout rose to the top because, in a sense, he's the perfect prospect. He is a position player who affects the game on offense, on defense and via baserunning, and has shown incredible maturity in his approach despite the fact that he entered pro ball at age 17 and still can't legally buy a drink (unless the Angels are visiting the Blue Jays). The next two guys on this list are pretty special in their own right, but Trout remains the top dog -- er, fish -- for 2012.

All Trout did last year was rank in the top 10 in the Texas League in on-base percentage (fifth, .414) and slugging (eighth, .544) despite being the youngest qualifying position player in the league. He's an 80 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) who flies out of the box; he tied for the league lead in triples and finished fifth in stolen bases even though a call up to the big leagues -- before his 20th birthday -- limited him to just 91 games at Double-A. And that early call-up is, in and of itself, a good sign: In the past 40 years, just 11 other players have had 100 plate appearances in a year in which their seasonal ages were 19 or younger, a list that includes Hall of Famer Robin Yount; potential Hall of Famers Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez and Pudge Rodriguez; and non-slouches Adrian Beltre, Justin Upton and Andruw Jones.

Trout is atop the list because the scouting report lines up with the production he has showed in the minors over the past three years. In addition to that explosive speed, he has great hand-eye coordination; a short, direct path to the ball; and a very advanced approach that combines pitch recognition with good ball-strike recognition. (That approach did fall apart a little in the big leagues, in part as he tried to be more aggressive to keep himself in the lineup, but also as he struggled to adjust to pitchers with better breaking balls changing eye levels on him -- fastballs up, curveballs down, in either order.) He has the hip rotation and leverage to hit for above-average power down the road to go with high batting averages and OBP, and should provide plus defense in any of the three outfield spots. A player such as Trout, who can add so much value to his team in so many ways, belongs on the top of the rankings.



Rank Player
2 Bryce Harper
Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 16, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization:Washington Nationals
Top '11 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2010 ranking: 2

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
109AB
387HR
17RBI
58SB
26


SO
87BB
59AVG
.297OBP
.392SLG
.501
Harper's calling card remains his 80 power to go with an 80 arm from right field, but he's a better overall athlete than he's given credit for. He showed over the course of a year when he was challenged twice by the Nationals with promotions that he can and will make adjustments to pitchers who attack his weaknesses.

His light-tower power produces incredible BP sessions and mammoth in-game shots; he has as much leverage from his lower half as a human can achieve without dislocating his spine midswing. He couples that with both quick wrists and strong hand-eye coordination for higher contact rates than this kind of power hitter typically sees. He's a plus runner who has improved substantially in right field since moving there after signing in 2010.

Harper still struggles with breaking stuff from lefties and continues to adjust to right-handers pitching him soft away, but showed improvement in at-bats against both groups of pitchers in the Arizona Fall League. He should return to Double-A to start the season and spend some time in Triple-A when ready, but a September call-up would be a reasonable timetable, with 30-homer seasons in his very near future.



Rank Player
3 Matt Moore
Age: 22 (DOB: June 18, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: Majors (Rays)
2011 ranking: 16

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
155W
12L
3ERA
1.92


SO
210BB
46H
101HR
11BAA
.184
Moore throws in the upper 90s about as easily as any left-hander I can remember seeing, sitting 93 to 98 mph like he's playing catch. He complements the heater with a plus slider in the low 80s and an even better changeup that helped him demolish right-handed batters in 2011 -- he struck out just less than 40 percent of right-handers he faced in the minors last year. The changeup is hard, 83-87 mph, and cuts more than fades, so Moore just buries it at the knees to keep hitters who've picked it up from elevating it. The slider is bigger than a typical slider, with tilt but a hint of a curveball's break that can carry it out of the zone, although if that's your third-best pitch, you're going pretty good.

His control took a big step forward this year, and his command of the fastball and changeup is already above average. Moore is only 22 with the frame to get stronger and an easy delivery that should, in theory, keep him on the mound longer. If I had a crystal ball that could promise me Moore would stay healthy for the next decade, he'd be even higher on this list. Instead, he'll have to settle for third place and predictions of Cy Young contention by his third or fourth year in the majors.



Rank Player
4 Manny Machado
Age: 19 (DOB: July 6, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '11 Level: A (Fredrick)
2011 ranking: 26

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
101AB
382HR
11RBI
50SB
11


SO
73BB
45AVG
.257OBP
.335SLG
.421
Machado showed he was much more advanced at the plate than even his biggest fans (myself included) thought, jumping to a full-season club and showing strong plate discipline in his first year in pro ball.

At the plate, Machado has strong, quick wrists and has mostly eliminated the slight bat wrap he had in high school, although he's started to drift a little early, which might cut off a little of his power. He has great hip rotation and really extends his arm well through his finish, so if he keeps his weight back a little better, he'll have above-average to plus power when he matures physically.

The biggest risk for Machado will be that he outgrows shortstop as his body fills out, but that likely would come with a major increase in power that could carry his bat at third base. He has the arm, the hands and the athleticism to handle short, and the faster pro game didn't faze him on defense or offense. At third, he'd still be an All-Star, but as a shortstop, when he reaches his mid-20s, he could be among the best players in the game.



Rank Player
5 Shelby Miller
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: AA (Springfield)
2011 ranking: 9

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
139.2W
11L
6ERA
2.77


SO
170BB
53H
112HR
4BAA
.219
Miller is the top right-handed pitching prospect in the minors, with the best combination of stuff, size, delivery and results of any pitcher in the minors not named Matt Moore.

He will sit in the low- to mid-90s and touch 97 mph as a starter with a sharp breaking ball in the upper-70s/low-80s with good depth that misses right-handed hitters' bats. He continued to make progress this year with his changeup, a pitch he rarely needed or used as an amateur, and the pitch has good tailing action that has helped him gets some swinging strikes against lefties. He is very receptive to coaches' suggestions and has proved a quick study so far.

He often lands on the third-base side of the rubber and comes slightly across his body, creating deception but also potentially putting stress on his shoulder. If the Cardinals can keep him more on line, and he sees more improvement in the changeup and command of the fastball, he's a potential No. 1 starter for the Cardinals in two or three years.



Rank Player
6 Travis d'Arnaud
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '11 Level: AA (New Hampshire)
2010 ranking: 99

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
114AB
424HR
21RBI
78SB
4


SO
100BB
33AVG
.311OBP
.371SLG
.542
D'Arnaud might turn out to be the real impact player acquired by Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade -- although I think Kyle Drabek is far too young and talented to assume his story is written -- as a plus defensive catcher who produces across the board on offense.

The two big keys for d'Arnaud in 2011 were staying healthy -- which he did until he tore a thumb ligament while playing for Team USA in October's World Cup -- and starting to grow into his power, which projects as plus, 25-30 homers in a full season of catching down the road.

His defense, always solid, improved this year with help from his manager in New Hampshire, Sal Fasano, who worked with d'Arnaud on game-calling and footwork. There's still more growth in d'Arnaud's bat, and he has the arm strength and release to improve his modest caught-stealing rates when he reaches the majors. He is expected to be healthy for spring training and will start the year in Triple-A, but since Las Vegas is such a hitters' park to begin with, he might knock the walls down before Toronto calls him up later in the year.



Rank Player
7 Jurickson Profar
Age: 18 (DOB: Feb. 20, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '11 Level: A (Hickory)
2011 ranking: 81

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
115AB
430HR
12RBI
65SB
23


SO
63BB
65AVG
.286OBP
.390SLG
.493
The Sally League's youngest regular was one of its most impressive prospects of any age; Profar showed the selectivity of a player six or seven years his senior, outstanding instincts in the field and more power than anticipated in his full-season debut.

Profar is a plus-makeup, plus-feel, plus-instincts guy who breaks the mold of that type of player by also having tremendous tools. Born in Curacao, he was scouted more as a pitcher that a position player before he signed. His defense projects as plus, if it isn't there already, with good hands, great reactions off the bat and of course a plus arm. At the plate, his approach is very advanced, and he's stronger than I realized, showing the ability to drive the ball the other way. He needs to keep his stride shorter -- I've seen him overstride to the point where his back side collapses -- and might have more pull power if he does so. He is only an average runner down the line but gets more out of his speed through his feel for baserunning.

Profar is also a player to root for, because of the energy he brings to the game and what a potential superstar like him could do for the sport on the global stage.



Rank Player
8 Devin Mesoraco
Age: 23 (DOB: June 19, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: C Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '11 Level: Majors (Reds)
2011 ranking: 31

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
120AB
436HR
15RBI
71SB
1


SO
83BB
52AVG
.289OBP
.371SLG
.484
Mesoraco followed up his breakout 2010 season -- after doing nothing in his first two years in pro ball -- with an impressive year in Triple-A in which he showed patience, some power and enough defensive ability to profile as an All-Star backstop in the big leagues.

At the plate, Mesoraco is strong and balanced, rotating his hips very well (despite a very faint hip drift) for future plus power that would produce 15-20 bombs right now in the big leagues. His approach is sound, surprisingly so for a player who faced a low level of competition in high school in Punxsutawney, Pa. Behind the plate, he receives fine and has improved his game-calling; his arm strength is above-average but it's mitigated by a slow release, one factor behind a drop in his caught stealing percentage from 2009-10 to 2011.

He is a rookie of the year contender in 2011 if he gets the playing time and should produce 25-homer seasons down the road at a position where any kind of offense is welcome.



Rank Player
9 Jesus Montero
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher/DH Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: Majors (Yankees)
2011 ranking: 4

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
109AB
420HR
18RBI
67SB
0


SO
98BB
36AVG
.288OBP
.348SLG
.467
Montero, who was traded to Seattle in a January deal that sent Michael Pineda to the Yankees, is a monster bat with a chance to produce MVP-caliber offensive lines from the DH slot, as soon as the Mariners accept that's where he needs to be.

He's exceedingly strong with plus bat speed and great hand-eye coordination, so even though he hits off his front foot, he can drive the ball out to all fields. Early in 2011, he lost his patience at the plate, apparently due to some frustration at returning to Triple-A, but worked it out and showed his previous approach and results during the second half and in a brief but impressive call-up to the Bronx in September.

As a catcher, Montero is not a catcher. He's slow behind the dish, poor at receiving and throwing -- despite some arm strength, he takes a year and a half to get rid of the ball, so the arm doesn't play. The bat is too special to put at risk of injury at the catcher's spot or to omit from the lineup 25 times a year because of routine rest days. Let Jesus hit.



Rank Player
10 Gerrit Cole
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 8, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: AFL (Mesa)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 AFL STATS


GM
3IP
15W
2L
0ERA
3.00


SO
16BB
4H
10HR
1BAA
.179
Cole was the first overall pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft and the top prospect in the draft class, on the basis of his long-term projection rather than his performance, which, it should be noted, wasn't the best on his own college team. (He was outpitched by UCLA teammate Trevor Bauer, who is No. 22 on this list.)

He has an 80 fastball, hitting 100-101 mph as a starter and pitching comfortably at 95-98, although the four-seamer doesn't have much life and he needs to learn to locate it better within the strike zone. His changeup is plus, 84-88 mph with good arm speed and hard fade, although his feel for how to use the pitch isn't as advanced as it should be because he threw it less often than his above-average 86-89 mph slider.

Cole can cut himself off a bit, especially when rushing his delivery. When he's right, he uses his lower half to generate arm speed and gets out over his front side after a strong stride toward the plate. He needs to work on his feel for pitching, since his coach always called his games at UCLA, and on command of his fastball; using his two-seamer more might also help him minimize mistakes up with the four-seamer. But the projection here is that of a No. 1 starter who can miss bats with as many as four different pitches, and who has the size and delivery to handle an ace's workload.



Rank Player
11 Dylan Bundy
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 15, 1992)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '11 Level: DNP
2011 ranking: IE

2011 HS STATS


GM
NAIP
71W
11L
0ERA
0.20


SO
158BB
5H
20HR
NABAA
NA
How advanced is Bundy, a high school pitcher from Oklahoma taken fourth overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft? One very senior front-office executive who saw him suggested the only reason Bundy wouldn't make Baltimore's opening day roster this year was his height. Aside from being "just" 6 feet tall, Bundy is about as perfect a high school right-hander as you'll find, boasting plus velocity, plus off-speed stuff, outstanding feel for pitching and a great delivery boosted by a legendary conditioning regimen.

He will sit 93-96 mph and touched 98-99 last spring, with a big, sharp upper-70s curveball and a vicious out-pitch cutter at 86-88 that he uses in lieu of his changeup to left-handed batters. The negatives are few; even his lack of height isn't a major concern, since he gets on top of the ball well and works down in the zone. He was worked extremely hard in high school, including a 180-pitch outing his junior year that earned some criticism on the national level, and no matter how well your arm works, an outing of that length includes some pitching while fatigued, especially for an 18-year-old. I'd like to see Baltimore handle Bundy aggressively, getting him to at least Double-A this year if his performance in the low minors follows our expectations.



Rank Player
12 Hak-Ju Lee
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 4, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '11 Level: AA (Montgomery)
2011 ranking: 49

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
121AB
500HR
5RBI
30SB
33


SO
94BB
53AVG
.292OBP
.365SLG
.416
Lee's breakout year in 2011 carried him to Double-A at age 20 and established him as one of the best true shortstop prospects in the game. He's a four-tool player whose only weakness is power, but because he's a lock to stay at the position, his bat will still make him a potential All-Star. A product of the Cubs' longtime investment in Korea, Lee was traded to Tampa in the Matt Garza deal in January 2011, and I'm guessing the Cubs' new brass would like to have him back.

He is a 70 runner with a plus arm, quick feet and solid instincts at short, along with excellent bat speed and an advanced approach that led him to the 12th-best on-base percentage in the Florida State League despite his being one of its 10 youngest regulars. His swing is slappy, so he's not going to hit for much if any power, but with high batting averages and OBPs and added value on defense, he'll be an All-Star candidate a few years after reaching the majors sometime in 2013.



Rank Player
13 Wil Myers
Age: 21 (DOB: Dec. 20, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: AA (Northwest Arkansas)
2011 ranking: UR

2010 MINORS STATS


GM
99AB
354HR
8RBI
45SB
9


SO
87BB
52AVG
.254OBP
.353SLG
.393
Myers' season got off to a rough start when he suffered a knee injury that ended up infected, costing him about six weeks of playing time and leaving his lower half a little stiff for much of the summer. But after resting it in September, he showed up in the Arizona Fall League looking like his old self.

He is a strong, patient hitter who's going to grow into a physical beast who hits 30-plus homers a year while providing at least average defense in right. Myers' swing is very natural and simple but doesn't produce a ton of power yet because he's young and because his stride is unusually short. His approach is excellent, and even as he struggled during the regular season, he continued to work the count and draw walks. He has an above-average arm in right and is athletic enough to stay there even if he ends up with a body similar to Scott Rolen. Don't be fooled by the off year -- he's still going to mash.



Rank Player
14 Arodys Vizcaino
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 13, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '11 Level: Majors (Braves)
2011 ranking: 47

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
97W
5L
5ERA
3.06


SO
100BB
28H
82HR
7BAA
.225
Vizcaino, who was acquired from the Yankees in the Javier Vazquez trade, appeared briefly down the stretch for Atlanta as a fastball-curveball reliever with two plus offerings and erratic command, but long term, he's a three-pitch starter who has a history of plus control, and just needs time and health to become a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.

He will pitch at 92-96 mph as a starter and touched 98 in relief for the big club, with some late life up in the zone. His main secondary pitch is a very hard curveball, breaking down hard at slider velocity with two-plane action and depth. He has good arm speed on his changeup and was much more effective against left-handed pitchers in the minors last year, even though he comes from just under three-quarters and gives those batters a longer look at the ball. He accelerates his arm very quickly and gets on top of the ball well but doesn't get great extension out front.

The righty missed part of 2010 with a partial ligament tear, and the move to the bullpen late in 2011 was to protect his arm as much as to give the major league club another relief option. If he stays healthy, which he did for all of last year, he's got the weapons and the easy velocity to pitch at the top of a rotation, with impact reliever potential if he can't handle the workload.



Rank Player
15 Bubba Starling
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 3, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '11 Level: Prep
2011 ranking: IE

2011 HS STATS


GM
21AB
NAHR
8RBI
24SB
21


SO
NABB
NAAVG
.508OBP
NASLG
NA
The best athlete in the 2011 draft -- and one of the best I've ever seen pick up a bat -- Starling spurned a scholarship to play quarterback at Nebraska to sign with the hometown Royals and become their long-term answer in center field.

He is a true five-tool player who hit 92 mph off the mound, was consistently the fastest runner at baseball showcases in high school and has above-average present power that will become plus as he fills out. He has some drift at the plate that holds back his power, but he has the hand strength and hip rotation to drive the ball to all fields. He hasn't faced a ton of advanced pitching in his life, and adjusting to pro pitchers who can spin a good breaking ball will be the ultimate test of how mature Starling's approach at the plate is. For now, it's all beautiful upside, a supreme athlete who one day will hit third or fourth in a lineup with above-average defense in center while contending for MVP awards.



Rank Player
16 Jameson Taillon
Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 18, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '11 Level: A (West Virginia)
2011 ranking: 30

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
23IP
92.2W
2L
3ERA
3.98


SO
97BB
22H
89HR
9BAA
.249
Taillon still has top-of-the-rotation ceiling, but he has pitched so little in pro ball that he hasn't developed as quickly as the typical top-end teenage pitcher would.

At 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, he looks like a workhorse starter, and has the plus fastball and future-plus slider to complete the story, sitting in the mid-90s (rarely throwing a fastball slower than 93 mph) with the ability to go back and get 98 when he needs it. He's so big at such a young age that his body control is lagging, and he'll need to continue to focus on pacing his delivery and keeping himself on line to the plate.

The Pirates' handling of Taillon's workloads has raised eyebrows across the game. He's been on such tight pitch counts that he faced more than 20 batters in a start just three times all year, never recording more than 15 outs. Despite that, he performed worse as the season went on, with reductions in his command and control. I still see Taillon as a future ace, but at some point, the Pirates will have to take the reins off.



Rank Player
17 Anthony Rendon
Age: 21 (DOB: June 6, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base Organization:Washington Nationals
Top '11 Level: College
2011 ranking: IE

2011 COLLEGE STATS


GM
63AB
214HR
6RBI
37SB
13


SO
33BB
80AVG
.327OBP
.520SLG
.523
Rendon was the top player in the 2011 draft class going into the spring but played with a nagging shoulder injury all season and fell to the Nationals with the sixth pick. When healthy, the Rice University product is an impressive, advanced hitter who should get on base, hit for at least average power and provide plus defense at third.

He has one of the quickest bats in the minors, coupled with major league-caliber plate discipline, particularly in recognizing pitches on the border of the strike zone. Before the shoulder limited his throwing, he had a plus arm, and his first step at third base is quick and accurate. He does have a lot of excess movement before he gets his swing started, leading to some timing issues, and he's now had three serious injuries in the past three years. There have been questions about Washington potentially moving him to second base because of the presence of Ryan Zimmerman, but the Nats currently have no plans to do so, nor should they -- second base is the wrong position for a player who's already had two traumatic ankle injuries. He could end up on top of this list with a healthy 2012, if he shows the defense, bat and patience to again project as an All-Star at third.



Rank Player
18 Julio Teheran
Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 27, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '11 Level: Majors (Braves)
2011 ranking: 6

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
144.2W
15L
3ERA
2.55


SO
122BB
48H
123HR
5BAA
.232
The Colombian-born Teheran still has one of the best pure arms of any starting pitching prospect in the minors, with a theoretical ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but the lesson of his 2011 season was that he's farther away than he appeared to be a year ago.

He'll pitch comfortably at 91-96 mph as a starter with very little effort, although he tries to throw his heater up in the zone and doesn't have a matching weapon to change hitters' eye levels. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that grades out as plus, with good fading action, although he showed a moderate platoon split in the minors and was spanked by left-handed hitters in five big league appearances (.968 OPS against).

Teheran's biggest shortcoming is the lack of an above-average breaking ball, although his mid-70s curveball was shorter and harder this year than it was in the past. He also opens up his front side very early, making the ball much easier for hitters to track, especially from the left side. Most importantly, he is still just 21 and is at least ready to pitch in a big league bullpen, with the kind of loose arm and easy velocity you can't teach.



Rank Player
19 Archie Bradley
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '11 Level: R (Missoula)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
2IP
2W
0L
0ERA
0.00


SO
4BB
0H
1HR
0BAA
.143
Bradley and Dylan Bundy were inevitably paired up all spring, compared to each other primarily because of geography (they played for rival high schools in Oklahoma) rather than the way they pitch. On the mound, the two 2011 first-round picks are quite different.

Where Bundy brings polish and probability, Bradley brings size and ceiling. Bradley, a star quarterback who turned down a scholarship to Oklahoma, is 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, with a fastball at 92-97 mph and one of the best curveballs in last year's draft, an absolute hammer at 80-84 that had older players laughing at how sharp it was in last year's instructional league.

His delivery is pretty simple for a guy his size; he keeps his hands away from his body and pronates his elbow nice and early, but doesn't generate much torque through hip rotation. His feel for pitching isn't as advanced as Bundy's -- yes, now I'm comparing them -- and he'll need to develop his changeup in pro ball, but he has the size and two weapons to project as an ace three or four years down the line.



Rank Player
20 Martin Perez
Age: 20 (DOB: Apr. 4, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '11 Level: AAA (Round Rock)
2011 ranking: 18

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
137.1W
8L
6ERA
4.33


SO
120BB
56H
152HR
10BAA
.284
Perez has been on the prospect radar so long that it's easy to forget he has yet to turn 21. His performances haven't matched his stuff -- or the hype -- just yet, but he reached Triple-A at an unusually young age and performed well given that added variable.

He will sit 92-95 mph on good days, working effectively to both sides of the plate, with a plus changeup at 83-85 that has both good arm speed and hard fading action. His curveball is more solid-average, mid-70s with inconsistent shape. Perez's command and control are still works in progress. He can take an inning or more to find his rhythm, and he has a tendency to overthrow when in trouble. He's improved his conditioning over the past two years, losing baby fat and building up muscle for durability. He could still end up at the top of a rotation but is more likely a solid No. 2 behind, say, someone such as Yu Darvish.



Rank Player
21 Trevor Bauer
Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 17, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '11 Level: AA (Mobile)
2011 ranking: IE

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
7IP
25.2W
1L
2ERA
5.96


SO
43BB
12H
3HR
27BAA
.257
Bauer, the 2011 Golden Spikes Award winner, was like a machine all spring for UCLA, striking out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faced. He carried much of that dominance into pro ball, helping an absurdly talented Mobile club win the Southern League championship.

He works with up to six pitches, including a plus fastball at 92-95 mph, an above-average changeup and multiple curveballs; both varieties of curve get swings and misses but tend to finish below the zone, something Bauer will have to address to miss pro bats. He's patterned his delivery after Tim Lincecum's, getting leverage early, but without "The Freak's" flexibility or ability to get over his front side.

The righty also handled an obscene workload last spring, topping 120 pitches at least six times for the Bruins, not counting the 50-plus full-effort pitches he'll throw before the game and between innings, adding to concerns about his long-term durability. But he also is nearly ready for the majors, and could post big strikeout totals right out of the chute because of the quality of his stuff and the fact that he's a quick study on the mound.



Rank Player
22 Carlos Martinez
Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 2, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: A (Palm Beach)
2011 ranking: 52

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
18IP
84.2W
6L
5ERA
3.93


SO
98BB
44H
76HR
3BAA
.238
Martinez -- formerly known as Matias -- was originally signed as a shortstop by the Red Sox in 2009, had the deal voided due to an identity question, but started throwing hard enough to earn a seven-figure bonus from the Cardinals a few months later. He now hits 100 mph as a starter and pitches in the mid-90s, with a hard curveball that has sharp two-plane break and tilt that puts it somewhere between a curve and a slider. As good as the curveball is, however, it's so far below the fastball's velocity -- 16-18 mph -- that he's sometimes actually helping the hitter by throwing it. He'll flash a plus changeup that he turns over very well, but when he moved up to high Class A, his lack of deception caught up to him, especially against left-handed hitters.

The Cardinals already have made some adjustments with him so the ball isn't so visible all the way through his delivery, and he needs to avoid trying to be too fine with his pitches when he gets into trouble. He's not a very physical guy -- his best comparable in build might be Pedro Martinez -- but he has the three weapons to remain a starter if he can make it harder for hitters to pick up the ball so early. It's top-of-the-rotation stuff in a pitcher who would be a college junior this year if he'd been born in the U.S.



Rank Player
23 Manny Banuelos
Age: 20 (DOB: Mar. 13, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: New York Yankees
Top '11 Level: AAA (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
2011 ranking: 12

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
129.2W
6L
7ERA
3.75


SO
125BB
71H
130HR
9BAA
.266
Banuelos' season started out on the wrong foot, as he had to go home to Mexico for a personal matter in April, missing some ramp-up time that set him back in his routine and his pitch counts. He pitched into the seventh inning only twice all year, so he needs to build up more stamina in 2012.

When he's right, he'll show an above-average fastball at 90-94 mph (but was a tick below that in 2011), an above-average to plus changeup and a solid-average curveball with good two-plane break. His command and control were off all year, especially to right-handed hitters, and no matter how good your changeup is, you're not getting opposite-side hitters out if you can't locate your fastball first.

Everything still points to Banuelos commanding the ball in the long term as he did before 2011, and much of the disappointment in his season is a function of our high expectations for him. He still projects as a solid No. 2, assuming his previous level of command returns.



Rank Player
24 Taijuan Walker
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 13, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '11 Level: A (Clinton)
2011 ranking: UR

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
18IP
96.2W
6L
5ERA
2.89


SO
113BB
39H
69HR
4BAA
.202
If we held a 2010 draft do-over right now, Walker would be a top-10 pick, but the industry let him fall to the sandwich round because a rough spring masked his absurd upside. A two-sport athlete who excelled in basketball in high school, Walker sits in the mid-90s, touching 98 mph, with plus-plus command of his fastball already. He just needs to work on his secondary stuff to reach his potential as a No. 1 starter.

The curveball will flash plus already, while the changeup, which has nice deception, has made solid strides for a pitch he's been throwing for only a little more than a year. Walker has a high leg kick and good stride to the plate, with just a little more effort from the arm than you'd like to see. He is skinny now (6-foot-4, 195 pounds) and is going to fill out substantially, so he needs to work to maintain his agility going forward, as well as on refining the two off-speed pitches. The upside is real, and his emergence this season made the trade of Michael Pineda possible.



Rank Player
25 Tyler Skaggs
Age: 20 (DOB: Jul. 13, 1991)
Bats: LeftThrows: Left
Position: Pitcher Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '11 Level: AA (Mobile)
2011 ranking: 78

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
158.1W
9L
6ERA
2.96


SO
198BB
49H
126HR
10BAA
.218
Skaggs continues to improve by leaps and bounds, to the point where he'd be in line for a big league call-up for a club that didn't also have Trevor Bauer standing in line.

He will sit in the low 90s, averaging around 91 mph, but hitters don't pick up the ball, allowing it to play as if he's throwing 96. He always has had a plus curveball -- he threw two in high school but junked the slower one at the urging of the Angels' staff, before he was traded to Arizona -- but his changeup has been the revelation, from a nonfactor in high school to above-average now. He shows almost no platoon split and struck out just less than a third of the right-handed batters he faced in 2011.

The southpaw has put on weight since high school, but his 6-foot-4 frame probably could handle another 20 pounds, so give him another two or three years, and he'll have the body, delivery, weapons and control to pitch near the top of a rotation.

 

[proshares]

Sorry about it being a little sloppy, I can't post it with the ADD REPLY feature for some reason. I gotta post it through the Quick Reply so the pictures and the stats get lost.

 

[proshares]

Sorry about it being a little sloppy, I can't post it with the ADD REPLY feature for some reason. I gotta post it through the Quick Reply so the pictures and the stats get lost.

 

[proshares]

Snap shot of the top 10 prospects for each team.

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Here's a snapshot look at the top prospects in each organization. For full reports on many of these players, see my ranking of the top 100 prospects in the minors. We've listed the Astros with the AL as that is where they are headed in 2013. The number in parentheses is where the player ranks on the top 100 list.

Baltimore Orioles 1. Manny Machado, SS (4) 2. Dylan Bundy, RHP (11) 3. Jonathan Schoop, 3B/2B (56) 4. Nick Delmonico, 3B/1B 5. Parker Bridwell, RHP 6. Bobby Bundy, RHP 7. Jason Esposito, 3B 8. L.J. %@*%, OF 9. Glynn Davis, CF 10. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP	Arizona Diamondbacks 1. Archie Bradley, RHP (19) 2. Trevor Bauer, RHP (21) 3. Tyler Skaggs, LHP (25) 4. Matt Davidson, 3B 5. Evan Marshall, RHP 6. Chris Owings, SS 7. Pat Corbin, LHP 8. Wade Miley, LHP 9. A.J. Pollock, CF 10. Anthony Meo, RHP
Boston Red Sox 1. Xander Bogaerts, IF (62) 2. Blake Swihart, C (100) 3. Will Middlebrooks, 3B 4. Ryan Lavarnway, C/DH 5. Matt Barnes, RHP 6. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP 7. Brandon Jacobs, OF 8. Bryce Brentz, OF 9. Garin Cecchini, 3B 10. Drake Britton, RHP	Atlanta Braves 1. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (14) 2. Julio Teheran, RHP (1 3. Christian Bethancourt, C (94) 4. Randall Delgado, RHP (9 5. Andrelton Simmons, SS 6. Tyler Pastornicky, SS 7. Sean Gilmartin, LHP 8. Zeke Spruill, RHP 9. J.R. Graham, RHP 10. Matt Lipka, OF
Chicago White Sox 1. Addison Reed, RHP (97) 2. Nestor Molina, RHP 3. Simon Castro, RHP 4. Trayce Thompson, CF 5. Keenyn Walker, OF 6. Jacob Petricka, RHP 7. Erik Johnson, RHP 8. Hector Santiago, LHP 9. Marcus Semien, SS/2B 10. Jared Mitchell, OF	Chicago Cubs 1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (36) 2. Brett Jackson, OF (89) 3. Javier Baez, SS (95) 4. Trey McNutt, RHP 5. Zach Cates, RHP 6. Welington Castillo, C 7. Dillon Maples, RHP 8. Josh Vitters, 3B 9. Reggie Golden, OF 10. Matt Szczur, CF
Cleveland Indians 1. Francisco Lindor, SS (35) 2. Austin Adams, RHP 3. Dillon Howard, RHP 4. Nick Hagadone, LHP 5. Ronny Rodriguez, SS 6. Chun Chen, C 7. Jesus Aguilar, 1B 8. Chen Lee, RHP 9. Jake Sisco, RHP 10. Tony Wolters, IF	Cincinnati Reds 1. Devon Mesoraco, C ( 2. Daniel Corcino, RHP (54) 3. Billy Hamilton, SS (64) 4. Robert Stephenson, RHP 5. Tony Cingrani, LHP 6. J.C. Sulbaran, RHP 7. Zack Cozart, SS 8. Didi Gregorius, SS 9. Yorman Rodriguez, OF 10. Todd Frazier, UT
Detroit Tigers 1. Jacob Turner, RHP (29) 2. Nick Castellanos, 3B (37) 3. Drew Smyly, LHP 4. Casey Crosby, LHP 5. James McCann, C 6. Tyler Collins, OF 7. Daniel Fields, CF 8. Brenny Paulino, RHP 9. Dixon Machado, SS 10. Jay Voss, LHP	Colorado Rockies 1. Nolen Arenado, 3B (26) 2. Drew Pomeranz, LHP (45) 3. Chad Bettis, RHP (91) 4. Wilin Rosario, C 5. Tim Wheeler, OF 6. Trevor Story, SS 7. Tyler Anderson, LHP 8. Josh Rutledge, SS 9. Kyle Parker, 1B 10. Will Swanner, C
Kansas City Royals 1. Wil Myers, RF (13) 2. Bubba Starling, CF (15) 3. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B (43) 4. Mike Montgomery, LHP (52) 5. Jake Odorizzi, RHP (71) 6. Jason Adam, RHP 7. John Lamb, LHP 8. Yordano Ventura, RHP 9. Chris Dwyer, RHP 10. Jorge Bonifacio, OF	Miami Marlins 1. Christian Yelich, LF/1B (4 2. Jose Fernandez, RHP 3. J.T. Realmuto, C 4. Chad James, LHP 5. Marcell Ozuna, RF 6. Matt Dominguez, 3B 7. Austin Brice, RHP 8. Rob Rasmussen, LHP 9. Jose Ceda, RHP 10. Mason Hope, RHP
Los Angeles Angels 1. Mike Trout, CF (1) 2. Jean Segura, SS (44) 3. Garrett Richards, RHP (70) 4. John Hellweg, RHP (81) 5. Taylor Lindsey, 2B 6. Kaleb Cowart, 3B 7. C.J. Cron, 1B 8. Nick Maronde, LHP 9. Luis Jimenez, 3B 10. Ariel Pena, P	Los Angeles Dodgers 1. Zach Lee, RHP (41) 2. Allen Webster, RHP (61) 3. Nate Eovaldi, RHP (79) 4. Chris Reed, LHP 5. Garrett Gould, RHP 6. Angel Sanchez, RHP 7. Chris Withrow, RHP 8. Joc Pederson, RHP 9. Josh Lindblom, RHP 10. Scott Barlow, RHP
Houston Astros 1. Jonathan Singleton, 1B (46) 2. George Springer, OF (60) 3. Jarred Cosart, RHP (7 4. Jonathan Villar, SS 5. Domingo Santana, OF 6. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP 7. Paul Clemens, RHP 8. Adrian Houser, RHP 9. Telvin Nash, 1B/OF 10. Delino DeShields, OF/2B	Milwaukee Brewers 1. Wily Peralta, RHP (39) 2. Taylor Jungmann, RHP (5 3. Jed Bradley, LHP 4. Tyler Thornburg, RHP 5. Taylor Green, 3B 6. Scooter Gennett, 2B 7. Cody Scarpetta, RHP 8. Logan Schafer, CF 9. Caleb Gindl, OF 10. Nick Ramirez, 1B
Minnesota Twins 1. Miguel Sano, 3B (2 2. Eddie Rosario, CF (50) 3. Aaron Hicks, CF (80) 4. Oswaldo Arcia, RF (85) 5. Joe Benson, OF 6. Levi Michael, SS 7. Brian Dozier, IF 8. Kyle Gibson, RHP 9. Travis Harrison, 3B 10. Alex Wimmers, RHP	New York Mets 1. Zack Wheeler, RHP (27) 2. Matt Harvey, RHP (3 3. Jeurys Familia, RHP 4. Brandon Nimmo, OF 5. Reese Havens, 2B 6. Cesar Puello, OF 7. Domingo Tapia, RHP 8. Wilmer Flores, OF 9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF 10. Juan Lagares, OF
New York Yankees 1. Manny Banuelos, LHP (23) 2. Mason Williams, CF (34) 3. Gary Sanchez, C (55) 4. Dellin Betances, RHP (83) 5. Tyler Austin, 3B/1B 6. Jose Campos, RHP 7. Dante Bichette, 3B 8. Austin Romine, C 9. J.R. Murphy, C 10. Slade Heathcott, OF	Philadelphia Phillies 1. Trevor May, RHP (76) 2. Jesse Biddle, LHP 3. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP 4. Sebastian Valle, C 5. Freddy Galvis, SS 6. Brody Colvin, RHP 7. Larry Green, OF 8. Julio Rodriguez, RHP 9. Maikel Franco, 3B 10. Perci Garner, RHP
Oakland Athletics 1. Jarrod Parker, RHP (31) 2. A.J. Cole, RHP (33) 3. Sonny Gray, RHP (73) 4. Michael Choice, OF (77) 5. Derek Norris, C (93) 6. Grant Green, CF 7. Brad Peacock, RHP 8. Raul Alcantara, RHP 9. Max Stassi, C 10. Chris Carter, 1B	Pittsburgh Pirates 1. Gerrit Cole, RHP (10) 2. Jameson Taillon, RHP (16) 3. Josh Bell, LF (67) 4. Starling Marte, CF (72) 5. Robbie Grossman, OF (86) 6. Luis Heredia, RHP 7. Kyle McPherson, RHP 8. Stetson Allie, RHP 9. Colton Cain, LHP 10. Zack Dodson, LHP
Seattle Mariners 1. Jesus Montero, C/DH (9) 2. Taijuan Walker, RHP (24) 3. Danny Hultzen, LHP (30) 4. James Paxton, LHP (51) 5. Nick Franklin, SS (57) 6. Francisco Martinez, 3B 7. Erasmo Ramirez, RHP 8. Vinnie Catricala, 3B/OF 9. Phillips Castillo, RHP 10. Guillermo Pimentel, OF	St. Louis Cardinals 1. Shelby Miller, RHP (5) 2. Carlos Martinez, RHP (22) 3. Oscar Taveras, RF (53) 4. Zack Cox, 3B (66) 5. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP (74) 6. Jordan Swagerty, RHP (92) 7. Trevor Rosenthal, RHP 8. Kolten Wong, 2B 9. Matt Adams, 1B 10. Joe Kelly, RHP
Tampa Bay Rays 1. Matt Moore, LHP (3) 2. Lee Hak-Ju, SS (12) 3. Chris Archer, RHP (63) 4. Enny Romero, LHP (84) 5. Mikie Mahtook, CF (87) 6. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP (8 7. Alex Torres, LHP 8. Tim Beckham, SS 9. Alex Colome, RHP 10. Drew Vettleson, OF	San Diego Padres 1. Casey Kelly, RHP (32) 2. Rymer Liriano, OF (40) 3. Joe Ross, RHP (50) 4. Yasmani Grandal, C (65) 5. Yonder Alonso, 1B (69) 6. Jedd Gyorko, 3B (90) 7. Austin Hedges, C 8. Joe Wieland, RHP 9. Cory Spangenberg, IF 10. Jaff Decker, RF
Texas Rangers 1. Jurickson Profar, SS (7) 2. Martin Perez, LHP (20) 3. Mike Olt, 3B (75) 4. Neil Ramirez, RHP (99) 5. Robbie Ross, LHP 6. Rougned Odor, 2B 7. Leonys Martin, CF 8. Cody Buckel, RHP 9. Leury Garcia, SS 10. Jorge Alfaro, C	San Francisco Giants 1. Gary Brown, CF (6 2. Heath Hembree, RHP 3. Tommy Joseph, C 4. Kyle Crick, RHP 5. Andrew Susac, C 6. Joe Panik, IF 7. Francisco Peguero, OF 8. Ehire Adrianza, SS 9. Hector Sanchez, C 10. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
Toronto Blue Jays 1. Travis d'Arnaud, C (6) 2. Drew Hutchison, RHP (42) 3. Jake Marisnick, CF (47) 4. Anthony Gose, CF (59) 5. Aaron Sanchez, RHP (96) 6. Justin Nicolino, RHP 7. Noah Syndergaard, RHP 8. A.J. Jimenez, C 9. Adonis Cardona, RHP 10. Deck McGuire, RHP	Washington Nationals 1. Bryce Harper, RF (2) 2. Anthony Rendon, 3B (17) 3. Alex Meyer, RHP 4. Destin Hood, RF 5. Brian Goodwin, CF 6. Sammy Solis, LHP 7. Matt Purke, LHP 8. Steve Lombardozzi, IF 9. Robbie Ray, LHP 10. Michael Taylor, CF

[th=""]American League[/th][th=""]National League[/th]

Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.

Who just missed the cut?

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

As always, when I compile my rankings of the top 100 MLB prospects, I start with a longer list of candidates, including the top prospects in each organization, and gradually narrow the number of players on the master list as I make calls, review notes and video, write up capsules, and circulate drafts of the top 100 to trusted sources -- a process that leaves a few players just on the outside of the final ranking. Here are the 10 players who just barely missed the top 100 (in no particular order), including full capsules for two players I wrote up before deciding to bump them from that final list.

---

Will Middlebrooks, 3B: He emerged as one of the top Red Sox prospects last season with a breakout year at age 22 with Double-A Portland, showing raw power and plus defense at third base, a position that's really down around the majors right now. Middlebrooks has filled out his 6-foot-4 frame, so his rotational swing now produces home runs instead of just long fly balls. But his approach at the plate is a real weakness that pitchers started to exploit when he was called up to Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League -- especially with better off-speed stuff.

He's an above-average defender at third with good reads and a plus arm; he could get to the big leagues on his defense alone. The issue for Middlebrooks will be whether he can hit enough to be able to hit for power, and he's not going to hit unless he can recognize off-speed stuff better and at least threaten to take the occasional walk, getting into more fastball counts to get pitches he can drive.

---

Alex Torres, LHP: He ranked 77th last year but drops off the list because of rising concerns about whether he'll ever throw enough strikes to be a starter. He stands just 5-foot-10 but keeps racking up strikeouts and generating ground balls while walking too many guys (5.0 per nine innings in his minor league career), meaning he could end up a No. 2 or 3 starter. But most scouts see him becoming a dominant left-handed reliever instead. Many of the walks are Torres getting cute, trying to be a finesse pitcher rather than a power guy who can miss bats in the strike zone. He'll sit 91-93 mph, touching 95, with late life on the pitch, and has a plus changeup at 82-84 with hard fade down and away from right-handed hitters. The curveball is his weakest pitch, mid-70s with a fairly short break.

Although he's small, he gets on top of the ball well, with enough plane on the fastball to keep from becoming homer-prone. To stay a starter, he'll have to stop handing out free passes, forcing hitters to earn them or die trying, because his ability to miss bats and get hitters out on both sides of the plate would give Torres real upside in a rotation.

---

Jeurys Familia, RHP: If I thought there was any chance he could start, he would have made the list, but he's headed for the bullpen with a plus fastball and not enough command or secondary stuff to remain in the rotation. The real gap in expected values between him and some of the likely relievers on my top 100, such as Dellin Betances or Addison Reed, isn't as big as the ranking gap might make it seem, given how volatile reliever performances can be.

---

Austin Adams, RHP: A similar story to Familia's -- Adams hits 98 mph just about every time out but doesn't have the knockout second pitch to back it up (although the slider isn't far off), and he struggles to keep his fastball down because of his size (he's just 5-11) and the way he lands on a stiff front leg.

---

Trevor Rosenthal, RHP: He has the arm strength (hitting 97 mph deep into starts) and size (he's 6-2, 190) to be a starter, but the breaking ball and changeup aren't there yet to lock him in as a future starter. St. Louis deserves credit for identifying him out of Cowley County CC in Arkansas City, Kan., and nabbing him in the 21st round in 2009. He's a another solid signing out of a small school for the Cardinals' amateur department.

---

Austin Hedges, C: He was a very late, difficult cut from the top 100, and is already one of the best defensive catchers in the minor leagues, with receiving and throwing skills (arm strength, release, and accuracy) that would play in the majors right now even though he's just out of high school. Last fall, he shortened his stride and showed more power and ability to square up the ball than he did as an amateur, and is a strong candidate to jump to the middle of next year's list.

---

Andrelton Simmons, SS: He has a plus glove, plus-plus arm and plus speed. But with minus power, will he get on base enough to be more than an extra guy? His .351 OBP for high Class A Lynchburg was nice, but he needs to show he can maintain that this year.

---

Ryan Lavarnway, C: If he catches, he's worth a couple of wins a year above replacement because of the value of his bat back there. But there's a wide industry consensus, one with which I agree, that he won't be able to catch every day, despite a tremendous work ethic that has at least raised his odds to "non-zero."

---

Alex Meyer, RHP: I love the fastball, the sink, the slider and the size (6-9), but the delivery and the questionable command have more teams viewing him as a potential reliever than starter. I still hold out more hope for the latter than most.

---

Luis Heredia, RHP: He appeared on the "just missed" list last year, and he sits at 90-95 mph with some ability to spin the breaking ball. He is only 17 years old, and last year he pitched with the command and lack of body control you'd expect given his age. I like the upside, but he could very easily take six years to produce any positive major league value.

---

Joe Wieland, RHP: Alright, I'm going to 11 because I couldn't decide on just 10. Wieland was acquired from the Rangers along with Robbie Erlin in the Mike Adams trade last July and started showing more velocity as the season progressed, hitting 95 mph in the Texas League playoffs. He's an extreme strike thrower who pitches aggressively with his fastball but tries to pitch up in the zone too much, and he doesn't have a plus secondary offering among his slider (his best off-speed pitch), curve or change.

 

[proshares]

Snap shot of the top 10 prospects for each team.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

Here's a snapshot look at the top prospects in each organization. For full reports on many of these players, see my ranking of the top 100 prospects in the minors. We've listed the Astros with the AL as that is where they are headed in 2013. The number in parentheses is where the player ranks on the top 100 list.

Baltimore Orioles 1. Manny Machado, SS (4) 2. Dylan Bundy, RHP (11) 3. Jonathan Schoop, 3B/2B (56) 4. Nick Delmonico, 3B/1B 5. Parker Bridwell, RHP 6. Bobby Bundy, RHP 7. Jason Esposito, 3B 8. L.J. %@*%, OF 9. Glynn Davis, CF 10. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP	Arizona Diamondbacks 1. Archie Bradley, RHP (19) 2. Trevor Bauer, RHP (21) 3. Tyler Skaggs, LHP (25) 4. Matt Davidson, 3B 5. Evan Marshall, RHP 6. Chris Owings, SS 7. Pat Corbin, LHP 8. Wade Miley, LHP 9. A.J. Pollock, CF 10. Anthony Meo, RHP
Boston Red Sox 1. Xander Bogaerts, IF (62) 2. Blake Swihart, C (100) 3. Will Middlebrooks, 3B 4. Ryan Lavarnway, C/DH 5. Matt Barnes, RHP 6. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP 7. Brandon Jacobs, OF 8. Bryce Brentz, OF 9. Garin Cecchini, 3B 10. Drake Britton, RHP	Atlanta Braves 1. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (14) 2. Julio Teheran, RHP (1 3. Christian Bethancourt, C (94) 4. Randall Delgado, RHP (9 5. Andrelton Simmons, SS 6. Tyler Pastornicky, SS 7. Sean Gilmartin, LHP 8. Zeke Spruill, RHP 9. J.R. Graham, RHP 10. Matt Lipka, OF
Chicago White Sox 1. Addison Reed, RHP (97) 2. Nestor Molina, RHP 3. Simon Castro, RHP 4. Trayce Thompson, CF 5. Keenyn Walker, OF 6. Jacob Petricka, RHP 7. Erik Johnson, RHP 8. Hector Santiago, LHP 9. Marcus Semien, SS/2B 10. Jared Mitchell, OF	Chicago Cubs 1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (36) 2. Brett Jackson, OF (89) 3. Javier Baez, SS (95) 4. Trey McNutt, RHP 5. Zach Cates, RHP 6. Welington Castillo, C 7. Dillon Maples, RHP 8. Josh Vitters, 3B 9. Reggie Golden, OF 10. Matt Szczur, CF
Cleveland Indians 1. Francisco Lindor, SS (35) 2. Austin Adams, RHP 3. Dillon Howard, RHP 4. Nick Hagadone, LHP 5. Ronny Rodriguez, SS 6. Chun Chen, C 7. Jesus Aguilar, 1B 8. Chen Lee, RHP 9. Jake Sisco, RHP 10. Tony Wolters, IF	Cincinnati Reds 1. Devon Mesoraco, C ( 2. Daniel Corcino, RHP (54) 3. Billy Hamilton, SS (64) 4. Robert Stephenson, RHP 5. Tony Cingrani, LHP 6. J.C. Sulbaran, RHP 7. Zack Cozart, SS 8. Didi Gregorius, SS 9. Yorman Rodriguez, OF 10. Todd Frazier, UT
Detroit Tigers 1. Jacob Turner, RHP (29) 2. Nick Castellanos, 3B (37) 3. Drew Smyly, LHP 4. Casey Crosby, LHP 5. James McCann, C 6. Tyler Collins, OF 7. Daniel Fields, CF 8. Brenny Paulino, RHP 9. Dixon Machado, SS 10. Jay Voss, LHP	Colorado Rockies 1. Nolen Arenado, 3B (26) 2. Drew Pomeranz, LHP (45) 3. Chad Bettis, RHP (91) 4. Wilin Rosario, C 5. Tim Wheeler, OF 6. Trevor Story, SS 7. Tyler Anderson, LHP 8. Josh Rutledge, SS 9. Kyle Parker, 1B 10. Will Swanner, C
Kansas City Royals 1. Wil Myers, RF (13) 2. Bubba Starling, CF (15) 3. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B (43) 4. Mike Montgomery, LHP (52) 5. Jake Odorizzi, RHP (71) 6. Jason Adam, RHP 7. John Lamb, LHP 8. Yordano Ventura, RHP 9. Chris Dwyer, RHP 10. Jorge Bonifacio, OF	Miami Marlins 1. Christian Yelich, LF/1B (4 2. Jose Fernandez, RHP 3. J.T. Realmuto, C 4. Chad James, LHP 5. Marcell Ozuna, RF 6. Matt Dominguez, 3B 7. Austin Brice, RHP 8. Rob Rasmussen, LHP 9. Jose Ceda, RHP 10. Mason Hope, RHP
Los Angeles Angels 1. Mike Trout, CF (1) 2. Jean Segura, SS (44) 3. Garrett Richards, RHP (70) 4. John Hellweg, RHP (81) 5. Taylor Lindsey, 2B 6. Kaleb Cowart, 3B 7. C.J. Cron, 1B 8. Nick Maronde, LHP 9. Luis Jimenez, 3B 10. Ariel Pena, P	Los Angeles Dodgers 1. Zach Lee, RHP (41) 2. Allen Webster, RHP (61) 3. Nate Eovaldi, RHP (79) 4. Chris Reed, LHP 5. Garrett Gould, RHP 6. Angel Sanchez, RHP 7. Chris Withrow, RHP 8. Joc Pederson, RHP 9. Josh Lindblom, RHP 10. Scott Barlow, RHP
Houston Astros 1. Jonathan Singleton, 1B (46) 2. George Springer, OF (60) 3. Jarred Cosart, RHP (7 4. Jonathan Villar, SS 5. Domingo Santana, OF 6. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP 7. Paul Clemens, RHP 8. Adrian Houser, RHP 9. Telvin Nash, 1B/OF 10. Delino DeShields, OF/2B	Milwaukee Brewers 1. Wily Peralta, RHP (39) 2. Taylor Jungmann, RHP (5 3. Jed Bradley, LHP 4. Tyler Thornburg, RHP 5. Taylor Green, 3B 6. Scooter Gennett, 2B 7. Cody Scarpetta, RHP 8. Logan Schafer, CF 9. Caleb Gindl, OF 10. Nick Ramirez, 1B
Minnesota Twins 1. Miguel Sano, 3B (2 2. Eddie Rosario, CF (50) 3. Aaron Hicks, CF (80) 4. Oswaldo Arcia, RF (85) 5. Joe Benson, OF 6. Levi Michael, SS 7. Brian Dozier, IF 8. Kyle Gibson, RHP 9. Travis Harrison, 3B 10. Alex Wimmers, RHP	New York Mets 1. Zack Wheeler, RHP (27) 2. Matt Harvey, RHP (3 3. Jeurys Familia, RHP 4. Brandon Nimmo, OF 5. Reese Havens, 2B 6. Cesar Puello, OF 7. Domingo Tapia, RHP 8. Wilmer Flores, OF 9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF 10. Juan Lagares, OF
New York Yankees 1. Manny Banuelos, LHP (23) 2. Mason Williams, CF (34) 3. Gary Sanchez, C (55) 4. Dellin Betances, RHP (83) 5. Tyler Austin, 3B/1B 6. Jose Campos, RHP 7. Dante Bichette, 3B 8. Austin Romine, C 9. J.R. Murphy, C 10. Slade Heathcott, OF	Philadelphia Phillies 1. Trevor May, RHP (76) 2. Jesse Biddle, LHP 3. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP 4. Sebastian Valle, C 5. Freddy Galvis, SS 6. Brody Colvin, RHP 7. Larry Green, OF 8. Julio Rodriguez, RHP 9. Maikel Franco, 3B 10. Perci Garner, RHP
Oakland Athletics 1. Jarrod Parker, RHP (31) 2. A.J. Cole, RHP (33) 3. Sonny Gray, RHP (73) 4. Michael Choice, OF (77) 5. Derek Norris, C (93) 6. Grant Green, CF 7. Brad Peacock, RHP 8. Raul Alcantara, RHP 9. Max Stassi, C 10. Chris Carter, 1B	Pittsburgh Pirates 1. Gerrit Cole, RHP (10) 2. Jameson Taillon, RHP (16) 3. Josh Bell, LF (67) 4. Starling Marte, CF (72) 5. Robbie Grossman, OF (86) 6. Luis Heredia, RHP 7. Kyle McPherson, RHP 8. Stetson Allie, RHP 9. Colton Cain, LHP 10. Zack Dodson, LHP
Seattle Mariners 1. Jesus Montero, C/DH (9) 2. Taijuan Walker, RHP (24) 3. Danny Hultzen, LHP (30) 4. James Paxton, LHP (51) 5. Nick Franklin, SS (57) 6. Francisco Martinez, 3B 7. Erasmo Ramirez, RHP 8. Vinnie Catricala, 3B/OF 9. Phillips Castillo, RHP 10. Guillermo Pimentel, OF	St. Louis Cardinals 1. Shelby Miller, RHP (5) 2. Carlos Martinez, RHP (22) 3. Oscar Taveras, RF (53) 4. Zack Cox, 3B (66) 5. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP (74) 6. Jordan Swagerty, RHP (92) 7. Trevor Rosenthal, RHP 8. Kolten Wong, 2B 9. Matt Adams, 1B 10. Joe Kelly, RHP
Tampa Bay Rays 1. Matt Moore, LHP (3) 2. Lee Hak-Ju, SS (12) 3. Chris Archer, RHP (63) 4. Enny Romero, LHP (84) 5. Mikie Mahtook, CF (87) 6. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP (8 7. Alex Torres, LHP 8. Tim Beckham, SS 9. Alex Colome, RHP 10. Drew Vettleson, OF	San Diego Padres 1. Casey Kelly, RHP (32) 2. Rymer Liriano, OF (40) 3. Joe Ross, RHP (50) 4. Yasmani Grandal, C (65) 5. Yonder Alonso, 1B (69) 6. Jedd Gyorko, 3B (90) 7. Austin Hedges, C 8. Joe Wieland, RHP 9. Cory Spangenberg, IF 10. Jaff Decker, RF
Texas Rangers 1. Jurickson Profar, SS (7) 2. Martin Perez, LHP (20) 3. Mike Olt, 3B (75) 4. Neil Ramirez, RHP (99) 5. Robbie Ross, LHP 6. Rougned Odor, 2B 7. Leonys Martin, CF 8. Cody Buckel, RHP 9. Leury Garcia, SS 10. Jorge Alfaro, C	San Francisco Giants 1. Gary Brown, CF (6 2. Heath Hembree, RHP 3. Tommy Joseph, C 4. Kyle Crick, RHP 5. Andrew Susac, C 6. Joe Panik, IF 7. Francisco Peguero, OF 8. Ehire Adrianza, SS 9. Hector Sanchez, C 10. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
Toronto Blue Jays 1. Travis d'Arnaud, C (6) 2. Drew Hutchison, RHP (42) 3. Jake Marisnick, CF (47) 4. Anthony Gose, CF (59) 5. Aaron Sanchez, RHP (96) 6. Justin Nicolino, RHP 7. Noah Syndergaard, RHP 8. A.J. Jimenez, C 9. Adonis Cardona, RHP 10. Deck McGuire, RHP	Washington Nationals 1. Bryce Harper, RF (2) 2. Anthony Rendon, 3B (17) 3. Alex Meyer, RHP 4. Destin Hood, RF 5. Brian Goodwin, CF 6. Sammy Solis, LHP 7. Matt Purke, LHP 8. Steve Lombardozzi, IF 9. Robbie Ray, LHP 10. Michael Taylor, CF

[th=""]American League[/th][th=""]National League[/th]

Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.

Who just missed the cut?

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

As always, when I compile my rankings of the top 100 MLB prospects, I start with a longer list of candidates, including the top prospects in each organization, and gradually narrow the number of players on the master list as I make calls, review notes and video, write up capsules, and circulate drafts of the top 100 to trusted sources -- a process that leaves a few players just on the outside of the final ranking. Here are the 10 players who just barely missed the top 100 (in no particular order), including full capsules for two players I wrote up before deciding to bump them from that final list.

---

Will Middlebrooks, 3B: He emerged as one of the top Red Sox prospects last season with a breakout year at age 22 with Double-A Portland, showing raw power and plus defense at third base, a position that's really down around the majors right now. Middlebrooks has filled out his 6-foot-4 frame, so his rotational swing now produces home runs instead of just long fly balls. But his approach at the plate is a real weakness that pitchers started to exploit when he was called up to Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League -- especially with better off-speed stuff.

He's an above-average defender at third with good reads and a plus arm; he could get to the big leagues on his defense alone. The issue for Middlebrooks will be whether he can hit enough to be able to hit for power, and he's not going to hit unless he can recognize off-speed stuff better and at least threaten to take the occasional walk, getting into more fastball counts to get pitches he can drive.

---

Alex Torres, LHP: He ranked 77th last year but drops off the list because of rising concerns about whether he'll ever throw enough strikes to be a starter. He stands just 5-foot-10 but keeps racking up strikeouts and generating ground balls while walking too many guys (5.0 per nine innings in his minor league career), meaning he could end up a No. 2 or 3 starter. But most scouts see him becoming a dominant left-handed reliever instead. Many of the walks are Torres getting cute, trying to be a finesse pitcher rather than a power guy who can miss bats in the strike zone. He'll sit 91-93 mph, touching 95, with late life on the pitch, and has a plus changeup at 82-84 with hard fade down and away from right-handed hitters. The curveball is his weakest pitch, mid-70s with a fairly short break.

Although he's small, he gets on top of the ball well, with enough plane on the fastball to keep from becoming homer-prone. To stay a starter, he'll have to stop handing out free passes, forcing hitters to earn them or die trying, because his ability to miss bats and get hitters out on both sides of the plate would give Torres real upside in a rotation.

---

Jeurys Familia, RHP: If I thought there was any chance he could start, he would have made the list, but he's headed for the bullpen with a plus fastball and not enough command or secondary stuff to remain in the rotation. The real gap in expected values between him and some of the likely relievers on my top 100, such as Dellin Betances or Addison Reed, isn't as big as the ranking gap might make it seem, given how volatile reliever performances can be.

---

Austin Adams, RHP: A similar story to Familia's -- Adams hits 98 mph just about every time out but doesn't have the knockout second pitch to back it up (although the slider isn't far off), and he struggles to keep his fastball down because of his size (he's just 5-11) and the way he lands on a stiff front leg.

---

Trevor Rosenthal, RHP: He has the arm strength (hitting 97 mph deep into starts) and size (he's 6-2, 190) to be a starter, but the breaking ball and changeup aren't there yet to lock him in as a future starter. St. Louis deserves credit for identifying him out of Cowley County CC in Arkansas City, Kan., and nabbing him in the 21st round in 2009. He's a another solid signing out of a small school for the Cardinals' amateur department.

---

Austin Hedges, C: He was a very late, difficult cut from the top 100, and is already one of the best defensive catchers in the minor leagues, with receiving and throwing skills (arm strength, release, and accuracy) that would play in the majors right now even though he's just out of high school. Last fall, he shortened his stride and showed more power and ability to square up the ball than he did as an amateur, and is a strong candidate to jump to the middle of next year's list.

---

Andrelton Simmons, SS: He has a plus glove, plus-plus arm and plus speed. But with minus power, will he get on base enough to be more than an extra guy? His .351 OBP for high Class A Lynchburg was nice, but he needs to show he can maintain that this year.

---

Ryan Lavarnway, C: If he catches, he's worth a couple of wins a year above replacement because of the value of his bat back there. But there's a wide industry consensus, one with which I agree, that he won't be able to catch every day, despite a tremendous work ethic that has at least raised his odds to "non-zero."

---

Alex Meyer, RHP: I love the fastball, the sink, the slider and the size (6-9), but the delivery and the questionable command have more teams viewing him as a potential reliever than starter. I still hold out more hope for the latter than most.

---

Luis Heredia, RHP: He appeared on the "just missed" list last year, and he sits at 90-95 mph with some ability to spin the breaking ball. He is only 17 years old, and last year he pitched with the command and lack of body control you'd expect given his age. I like the upside, but he could very easily take six years to produce any positive major league value.

---

Joe Wieland, RHP: Alright, I'm going to 11 because I couldn't decide on just 10. Wieland was acquired from the Rangers along with Robbie Erlin in the Mike Adams trade last July and started showing more velocity as the season progressed, hitting 95 mph in the Texas League playoffs. He's an extreme strike thrower who pitches aggressively with his fastball but tries to pitch up in the zone too much, and he doesn't have a plus secondary offering among his slider (his best off-speed pitch), curve or change.

 

[kevin cleveland]

The Astros' lineup/projections. 

The Indians' system is in a bad place for now, but I'm not worried. Plenty of long-term potential.

 

[kevin cleveland]

The Astros' lineup/projections. 

The Indians' system is in a bad place for now, but I'm not worried. Plenty of long-term potential.

 

[CP1708]

Great stuff Pro, but gad damn, we suck this bad and only have 3 of the top 100 prospects? 

  And 1 of them can't put the bat on the ball?  Good Lord.

This alone makes me want to move Garza, and he's the guy that I didn't want to move at all during the offseason, but we need to do something.  Starlin ain't gettin any younger. 

 

[CP1708]

Great stuff Pro, but gad damn, we suck this bad and only have 3 of the top 100 prospects? 

  And 1 of them can't put the bat on the ball?  Good Lord.

This alone makes me want to move Garza, and he's the guy that I didn't want to move at all during the offseason, but we need to do something.  Starlin ain't gettin any younger. 

 

[stringer bell 32]

Great stuff as always Pros

 

[stringer bell 32]

Great stuff as always Pros

 

[proshares]

Last batch of projections for now.

2012 Arizona Diamondbacks projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Justin Upton		550	155	35	5	30	94	98	65	123	13	21	0.282	0.371	0.527	0.898	0.386
Paul Goldschmidt		505	127	30	3	29	74	78	70	158	0	14	0.251	0.343	0.495	0.838	0.37
Miguel Montero		450	126	32	1	16	69	74	44	90	6	1	0.28	0.352	0.462	0.814	0.35
Ryan Roberts		500	131	26	2	18	69	65	67	103	2	12	0.262	0.351	0.43	0.781	0.345
Chris Young		560	137	36	3	22	85	82	77	138	3	22	0.245	0.339	0.438	0.777	0.343
Jason Kubel		450	117	24	2	17	60	61	45	102	2	1	0.26	0.33	0.436	0.766	0.334
Stephen Drew		525	137	33	10	11	80	50	52	106	2	8	0.261	0.33	0.425	0.755	0.332
Gerardo Parra		275	78	13	5	4	34	34	24	50	2	5	0.284	0.346	0.411	0.756	0.324
Lyle Overbay		275	66	16	1	8	34	33	34	64	1	1	0.24	0.326	0.393	0.719	0.318
Aaron Hill		515	127	25	2	15	69	56	37	75	7	12	0.247	0.306	0.39	0.696	0.308
Willie Bloomquist		305	85	9	2	3	35	33	20	47	3	17	0.279	0.329	0.351	0.68	0.305
John McDonald		175	45	8	1	3	18	19	8	23	1	3	0.257	0.293	0.366	0.659	0.292

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
J.J. Putz	2	2	2.85			35	60	45	19	4	65	16	1.02	9.75	2.4	2.68
Brad Ziegler	2	2	3			0	60	56	20	1	43	22	1.3	6.45	3.3	3.01
Takashi Saito	2	2	3.42			0	50	40	19	4	53	17	1.14	9.54	3.06	3.14
Daniel Hudson	13	9	3.47			0	205	192	79	16	160	49	1.18	7.02	2.15	3.37
Ian Kennedy	13	9	3.25			0	205	173	74	20	181	58	1.13	7.95	2.55	3.56
Craig Breslow	2	2	4.05			0	60	58	27	5	49	22	1.33	7.35	3.3	3.68
Bryan Shaw	2	2	3.3			0	60	64	22	6	51	17	1.35	7.65	2.55	3.78
Josh Collmenter	9	9	4.01			0	175	156	78	19	114	32	1.07	5.86	1.65	3.84
Joe Paterson	2	2	4.2			0	60	49	28	4	49	26	1.25	7.35	3.9	3.86
David Hernandez	2	2	3.9			0	60	50	26	6	60	28	1.3	9	4.2	3.88
Trevor Cahill	11	9	3.69			0	200	194	82	20	133	76	1.35	5.99	3.42	4.3
Mike Zagurski	2	2	5.1			0	60	73	34	7	86	51	2.07	12.9	7.65	4.43
Wade Miley	6	7	4.71			0	130	145	68	17	95	52	1.52	6.58	3.6	4.56
Sam Demel	0	0	4.68			0	25	30	13	3	18	11	1.64	6.48	3.96	4.64
Joe Saunders	11	10	4.11			0	195	202	89	26	103	62	1.35	4.75	2.86	4.77
Barry Enright	1	1	5.11			0	37	43	21	9	20	13	1.51	4.86	3.16	6.3

2012 San Francisco Giants projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Pablo Sandoval		540	163	34	4	24	85	92	45	74	1	3	0.302	0.357	0.513	0.87	0.367
Buster Posey		500	146	22	1	18	79	79	48	76	8	4	0.292	0.363	0.448	0.811	0.352
Brandon Belt		475	119	24	3	24	67	70	55	133	5	11	0.251	0.335	0.465	0.8	0.348
Melky Cabrera		580	167	37	4	14	88	57	39	80	1	15	0.288	0.334	0.438	0.772	0.338
Brett Pill		125	35	7	2	5	15	21	5	20	0	0	0.28	0.308	0.488	0.796	0.335
Angel Pagan		390	108	20	4	6	48	47	34	56	1	22	0.277	0.336	0.395	0.731	0.327
Nate Schierholtz		270	76	17	1	6	32	34	18	48	3	5	0.281	0.333	0.419	0.752	0.327
Aubrey Huff		405	104	22	2	12	58	55	43	68	3	3	0.257	0.333	0.41	0.742	0.324
Mike Fontenot		220	58	14	3	4	27	27	22	46	2	3	0.264	0.336	0.409	0.745	0.324
Ryan Theriot		495	139	22	2	2	72	38	37	55	4	10	0.281	0.336	0.345	0.681	0.307
Freddy Sanchez		305	84	17	1	4	41	31	18	47	3	1	0.275	0.322	0.377	0.699	0.305
Brandon Crawford		295	76	8	3	5	37	32	36	44	0	2	0.258	0.338	0.356	0.694	0.304
Manny Burriss		110	28	1	0	0	11	9	5	13	2	8	0.255	0.299	0.264	0.563	0.266
Eli Whiteside		215	45	9	2	4	22	21	17	60	3	1	0.209	0.277	0.326	0.602	0.264

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Sergio Romo	2	2	1.8			0	60	40	12	4	79	10	0.83	11.85	1.5	1.91
Madison Bumgarner	15	8	3.02			0	200	201	67	13	181	45	1.23	8.15	2.03	2.88
Brian Wilson	2	2	3.15			35	60	53	21	3	65	28	1.35	9.75	4.2	3.06
Tim Lincecum	16	9	3.04			0	210	174	71	15	222	79	1.2	9.51	3.39	3.11
Matt Cain	17	8	2.87			0	210	171	67	13	169	62	1.11	7.24	2.66	3.26
Santiago Casilla	2	2	3.6			0	60	45	24	2	54	29	1.23	8.1	4.35	3.31
Javier Lopez	2	2	3.75			0	60	51	25	1	43	27	1.3	6.45	4.05	3.36
Dan Runzler	1	1	4			0	27	27	12	1	27	16	1.59	9	5.33	3.45
Ryan Vogelsong	11	8	3.55			0	175	160	69	15	136	60	1.26	6.99	3.09	3.75
Jeremy Affeldt	2	2	3.3			0	60	51	22	5	54	25	1.27	8.1	3.75	3.81
Guillermo Mota	3	3	3.73			0	70	62	29	8	61	27	1.27	7.84	3.47	4.07
Clay Hensley	2	2	4.5			0	60	52	30	6	47	26	1.3	7.05	3.9	4.26
Barry Zito	8	8	4.47			0	155	146	77	20	110	69	1.39	6.39	4.01	4.75
Eric Surkamp	1	1	5.88			0	26	32	17	2	13	17	1.88	4.5	5.88	5.16

2012 Colorado Rockies projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Carlos Gonzalez		540	162	31	5	30	90	102	49	118	6	22	0.3	0.365	0.543	0.907	0.396
Troy Tulowitzki		535	162	35	3	30	94	108	61	83	4	9	0.303	0.378	0.548	0.926	0.394
Jason Giambi		145	35	7	0	9	23	22	24	44	4	0	0.241	0.364	0.476	0.84	0.369
Todd Helton		390	112	23	1	10	65	58	61	70	2	0	0.287	0.386	0.428	0.815	0.359
Michael Cuddyer		525	144	29	3	18	71	75	49	92	4	9	0.274	0.341	0.444	0.785	0.346
Eric Young		245	68	5	4	0	32	25	33	46	4	31	0.278	0.372	0.331	0.703	0.341
Dexter Fowler		525	135	35	16	6	87	51	76	133	5	16	0.257	0.356	0.419	0.775	0.341
Wilin Rosario		275	68	15	5	15	31	45	11	96	0	0	0.247	0.276	0.502	0.778	0.332
Ramon Hernandez		375	106	18	0	11	49	50	31	55	6	0	0.283	0.347	0.419	0.766	0.332
Marco Scutaro		450	125	28	1	8	57	58	45	49	2	5	0.278	0.346	0.398	0.744	0.33
Casey Blake		250	63	13	1	7	32	31	29	64	4	1	0.252	0.339	0.396	0.735	0.326
Chris Nelson		200	58	11	1	4	23	26	8	37	1	4	0.29	0.321	0.415	0.736	0.323
Jonathan Herrera		410	116	8	2	4	61	40	43	59	1	5	0.283	0.352	0.341	0.694	0.312
Charlie Blackmon		251	68	3	0	3	25	25	8	19	0	14	0.271	0.293	0.319	0.612	0.276
DJ LeMahieu		200	55	7	0	0	18	19	4	38	0	0	0.275	0.289	0.31	0.599	0.266

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Rafael Betancourt	3	3	2.55			25	60	47	17	7	73	10	0.95	10.95	1.5	2.66
Rex Brothers	2	2	2.7			0	50	41	15	5	73	25	1.32	13.14	4.5	3.02
Matt Belisle	3	3	3.32			0	65	67	24	5	56	12	1.22	7.75	1.66	3.05
Drew Pomeranz	9	7	3.73			0	140	147	58	11	101	39	1.33	6.49	2.51	3.62
Juan Nicasio	3	3	3.45			0	60	62	23	7	49	15	1.28	7.35	2.25	3.76
Jorge de la Rosa	3	3	3.99			0	70	61	31	7	66	30	1.3	8.49	3.86	3.91
Josh Outman	6	7	4.58			0	120	124	61	9	76	47	1.43	5.7	3.53	3.96
Jhoulys Chacin	13	10	3.73			0	205	175	85	20	170	93	1.31	7.46	4.08	4.14
Guillermo Moscoso	8	9	4.73			0	175	141	92	19	103	53	1.11	5.3	2.73	4.27
Jeremy Guthrie	8	10	4.2			0	195	196	91	25	118	58	1.3	5.45	2.68	4.58
Matt Reynolds	3	3	3.6			0	60	54	24	11	59	21	1.25	8.85	3.15	4.6
Edgmer Escalona	1	1	5.04			0	25	17	14	3	13	8	1	4.68	2.88	4.68
Esmil Rogers	3	3	5.25			0	60	79	35	8	48	31	1.83	7.2	4.65	4.96
Tyler Chatwood	4	4	4.9			0	90	105	49	9	47	45	1.67	4.7	4.5	4.97
Alex White	7	8	5.08			0	140	170	79	35	101	68	1.7	6.49	4.37	6.56

2012 Los Angeles Dodgers projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Matt Kemp		580	174	29	5	33	99	104	65	151	5	31	0.3	0.375	0.538	0.913	0.389
Andre Ethier		525	148	33	1	17	83	83	63	107	4	1	0.282	0.363	0.446	0.809	0.351
Jerry Sands		475	111	27	1	20	64	62	65	112	2	6	0.234	0.328	0.421	0.749	0.331
James Loney		545	154	32	2	12	77	75	48	72	2	5	0.283	0.343	0.415	0.758	0.33
A.J. Ellis		250	62	6	2	4	34	25	38	46	6	0	0.248	0.361	0.336	0.697	0.317
Juan Rivera		250	65	12	0	7	30	30	22	38	2	1	0.26	0.325	0.392	0.717	0.316
Dee Gordon		555	165	23	8	0	74	48	19	62	0	50	0.297	0.321	0.368	0.688	0.313
Jerry Hairston		270	70	14	1	5	32	30	24	38	4	4	0.259	0.329	0.374	0.703	0.313
Tony Gwynn		250	66	9	4	2	29	27	25	46	1	15	0.264	0.333	0.356	0.689	0.312
Matt Treanor		200	49	6	0	3	26	19	28	51	4	1	0.245	0.349	0.32	0.669	0.305
Mark Ellis		450	115	22	1	7	58	44	28	67	6	11	0.256	0.308	0.356	0.663	0.297
Juan Uribe		350	84	17	1	10	40	41	26	71	5	1	0.24	0.302	0.38	0.682	0.297
Ivan De Jesus		330	87	11	0	6	36	29	22	107	0	2	0.264	0.31	0.352	0.661	0.295
Adam Kennedy		220	56	12	1	3	24	24	16	37	1	5	0.255	0.308	0.359	0.667	0.294
Justin Sellers		180	41	13	0	2	20	18	18	30	3	1	0.228	0.308	0.333	0.642	0.291
Tim Federowicz		155	28	0	0	0	19	8	26	44	12	0	0.181	0.342	0.181	0.523	0.267

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Kenley Jansen	2	2	1.95			15	60	33	13	3	105	30	1.05	15.75	4.5	1.83
Clayton Kershaw	21	6	2.3			0	215	163	55	14	227	65	1.06	9.5	2.72	2.78
Josh Lindblom	2	2	3.9			0	60	43	26	4	58	21	1.07	8.7	3.15	3.21
Scott Elbert	2	2	3.6			0	60	51	24	5	62	27	1.3	9.3	4.05	3.55
Javy Guerra	2	2	3.75			15	60	48	25	4	49	23	1.18	7.35	3.45	3.61
Chad Billingsley	11	10	4.06			0	195	189	88	13	166	82	1.39	7.66	3.78	3.63
Todd Coffey	2	2	3.93			0	55	53	24	5	44	18	1.29	7.2	2.95	3.75
Matt Guerrier	2	2	3.9			0	60	52	26	5	42	21	1.22	6.3	3.15	3.86
Rubby De La Rosa	2	2	3.6			0	60	54	24	6	60	31	1.42	9	4.65	3.93
Chris Capuano	10	8	3.91			0	175	184	76	25	156	51	1.34	8.02	2.62	4.1
Mike MacDougal	2	2	3.93			0	55	54	24	3	39	30	1.53	6.38	4.91	4.17
Ted Lilly	11	8	3.65			0	180	159	73	27	151	46	1.14	7.55	2.3	4.24
Aaron Harang	10	10	4.25			0	180	195	85	23	135	59	1.41	6.75	2.95	4.29
Blake Hawksworth	2	2	3.75			0	60	60	25	8	44	21	1.35	6.6	3.15	4.45
Ramon Troncoso	0	0	3.68			0	22	28	9	3	14	6	1.55	5.73	2.45	4.53
Nathan Eovaldi	4	5	4.77			0	100	82	53	8	67	58	1.4	6.03	5.22	4.67

2012 San Diego Padres projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Carlos Quentin		420	106	27	1	24	66	72	40	79	21	2	0.252	0.347	0.493	0.84	0.367
Jesus Guzman		270	77	24	2	6	34	36	24	46	1	8	0.285	0.346	0.456	0.801	0.351
Yonder Alonso		480	135	23	0	19	72	72	50	114	0	0	0.281	0.349	0.448	0.797	0.35
Chris Denorfia		240	69	11	2	5	31	29	23	40	1	8	0.288	0.352	0.413	0.765	0.337
Nick Hundley		290	78	17	4	9	37	40	25	74	3	1	0.269	0.333	0.448	0.782	0.336
Cameron Maybin		545	144	24	8	11	74	71	49	133	3	34	0.264	0.328	0.398	0.726	0.328
Will Venable		380	95	14	7	11	57	34	36	103	4	22	0.25	0.321	0.411	0.732	0.327
Kyle Blanks		180	41	8	1	8	22	22	20	57	3	2	0.228	0.315	0.417	0.732	0.326
Chase Headley		535	143	33	2	8	80	55	64	126	3	15	0.267	0.349	0.381	0.73	0.325
John Baker		200	52	11	1	3	25	22	25	48	2	0	0.26	0.348	0.37	0.718	0.323
Orlando Hudson		410	106	18	4	6	51	46	47	81	3	12	0.259	0.339	0.366	0.705	0.315
Mark Kotsay		220	59	12	1	4	26	25	20	26	0	2	0.268	0.329	0.386	0.716	0.313
Jason Bartlett		515	137	24	3	4	60	53	47	92	5	19	0.266	0.333	0.348	0.681	0.31

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Cory Luebke	11	7	3.09			0	160	123	55	14	177	51	1.09	9.96	2.87	3.02
Luke Gregerson	2	2	3.75			0	60	52	25	3	52	19	1.18	7.8	2.85	3.05
Joe Thatcher	1	1	3.83			0	40	32	17	3	45	16	1.2	10.13	3.6	3.08
Ernesto Frieri	2	2	4.05			0	60	46	27	3	74	32	1.3	11.1	4.8	3.21
Huston Street	2	2	3.06			32	50	48	17	7	49	10	1.16	8.82	1.8	3.6
Tim Stauffer	11	8	3.41			0	190	180	72	19	133	56	1.24	6.3	2.65	3.99
Clayton Richard	6	6	4.2			0	120	125	56	10	78	47	1.43	5.85	3.53	4.09
Brad Brach	1	1	4.05			0	40	51	18	4	63	40	2.28	14.18	9	4.38
Josh Spence	1	1	4.5			0	40	19	20	4	42	26	1.13	9.45	5.85	4.38
Dustin Moseley	7	7	4.11			0	140	140	64	15	75	45	1.32	4.82	2.89	4.43
Anthony Bass	3	3	4.4			0	90	77	44	7	45	39	1.29	4.5	3.9	4.46
Andrew Cashner	2	2	4.05			0	60	48	27	7	53	30	1.3	7.95	4.5	4.48
Micah Owings	3	3	4.61			0	80	74	41	10	59	36	1.38	6.64	4.05	4.73
Edinson Volquez	6	7	4.37			0	140	133	68	21	139	82	1.54	8.94	5.27	4.93
Erik Hamren	1	1	5.4			0	40	33	24	5	33	30	1.58	7.43	6.75	5.46

 

[proshares]

Last batch of projections for now.

2012 Arizona Diamondbacks projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Justin Upton		550	155	35	5	30	94	98	65	123	13	21	0.282	0.371	0.527	0.898	0.386
Paul Goldschmidt		505	127	30	3	29	74	78	70	158	0	14	0.251	0.343	0.495	0.838	0.37
Miguel Montero		450	126	32	1	16	69	74	44	90	6	1	0.28	0.352	0.462	0.814	0.35
Ryan Roberts		500	131	26	2	18	69	65	67	103	2	12	0.262	0.351	0.43	0.781	0.345
Chris Young		560	137	36	3	22	85	82	77	138	3	22	0.245	0.339	0.438	0.777	0.343
Jason Kubel		450	117	24	2	17	60	61	45	102	2	1	0.26	0.33	0.436	0.766	0.334
Stephen Drew		525	137	33	10	11	80	50	52	106	2	8	0.261	0.33	0.425	0.755	0.332
Gerardo Parra		275	78	13	5	4	34	34	24	50	2	5	0.284	0.346	0.411	0.756	0.324
Lyle Overbay		275	66	16	1	8	34	33	34	64	1	1	0.24	0.326	0.393	0.719	0.318
Aaron Hill		515	127	25	2	15	69	56	37	75	7	12	0.247	0.306	0.39	0.696	0.308
Willie Bloomquist		305	85	9	2	3	35	33	20	47	3	17	0.279	0.329	0.351	0.68	0.305
John McDonald		175	45	8	1	3	18	19	8	23	1	3	0.257	0.293	0.366	0.659	0.292

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
J.J. Putz	2	2	2.85			35	60	45	19	4	65	16	1.02	9.75	2.4	2.68
Brad Ziegler	2	2	3			0	60	56	20	1	43	22	1.3	6.45	3.3	3.01
Takashi Saito	2	2	3.42			0	50	40	19	4	53	17	1.14	9.54	3.06	3.14
Daniel Hudson	13	9	3.47			0	205	192	79	16	160	49	1.18	7.02	2.15	3.37
Ian Kennedy	13	9	3.25			0	205	173	74	20	181	58	1.13	7.95	2.55	3.56
Craig Breslow	2	2	4.05			0	60	58	27	5	49	22	1.33	7.35	3.3	3.68
Bryan Shaw	2	2	3.3			0	60	64	22	6	51	17	1.35	7.65	2.55	3.78
Josh Collmenter	9	9	4.01			0	175	156	78	19	114	32	1.07	5.86	1.65	3.84
Joe Paterson	2	2	4.2			0	60	49	28	4	49	26	1.25	7.35	3.9	3.86
David Hernandez	2	2	3.9			0	60	50	26	6	60	28	1.3	9	4.2	3.88
Trevor Cahill	11	9	3.69			0	200	194	82	20	133	76	1.35	5.99	3.42	4.3
Mike Zagurski	2	2	5.1			0	60	73	34	7	86	51	2.07	12.9	7.65	4.43
Wade Miley	6	7	4.71			0	130	145	68	17	95	52	1.52	6.58	3.6	4.56
Sam Demel	0	0	4.68			0	25	30	13	3	18	11	1.64	6.48	3.96	4.64
Joe Saunders	11	10	4.11			0	195	202	89	26	103	62	1.35	4.75	2.86	4.77
Barry Enright	1	1	5.11			0	37	43	21	9	20	13	1.51	4.86	3.16	6.3

2012 San Francisco Giants projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Pablo Sandoval		540	163	34	4	24	85	92	45	74	1	3	0.302	0.357	0.513	0.87	0.367
Buster Posey		500	146	22	1	18	79	79	48	76	8	4	0.292	0.363	0.448	0.811	0.352
Brandon Belt		475	119	24	3	24	67	70	55	133	5	11	0.251	0.335	0.465	0.8	0.348
Melky Cabrera		580	167	37	4	14	88	57	39	80	1	15	0.288	0.334	0.438	0.772	0.338
Brett Pill		125	35	7	2	5	15	21	5	20	0	0	0.28	0.308	0.488	0.796	0.335
Angel Pagan		390	108	20	4	6	48	47	34	56	1	22	0.277	0.336	0.395	0.731	0.327
Nate Schierholtz		270	76	17	1	6	32	34	18	48	3	5	0.281	0.333	0.419	0.752	0.327
Aubrey Huff		405	104	22	2	12	58	55	43	68	3	3	0.257	0.333	0.41	0.742	0.324
Mike Fontenot		220	58	14	3	4	27	27	22	46	2	3	0.264	0.336	0.409	0.745	0.324
Ryan Theriot		495	139	22	2	2	72	38	37	55	4	10	0.281	0.336	0.345	0.681	0.307
Freddy Sanchez		305	84	17	1	4	41	31	18	47	3	1	0.275	0.322	0.377	0.699	0.305
Brandon Crawford		295	76	8	3	5	37	32	36	44	0	2	0.258	0.338	0.356	0.694	0.304
Manny Burriss		110	28	1	0	0	11	9	5	13	2	8	0.255	0.299	0.264	0.563	0.266
Eli Whiteside		215	45	9	2	4	22	21	17	60	3	1	0.209	0.277	0.326	0.602	0.264

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Sergio Romo	2	2	1.8			0	60	40	12	4	79	10	0.83	11.85	1.5	1.91
Madison Bumgarner	15	8	3.02			0	200	201	67	13	181	45	1.23	8.15	2.03	2.88
Brian Wilson	2	2	3.15			35	60	53	21	3	65	28	1.35	9.75	4.2	3.06
Tim Lincecum	16	9	3.04			0	210	174	71	15	222	79	1.2	9.51	3.39	3.11
Matt Cain	17	8	2.87			0	210	171	67	13	169	62	1.11	7.24	2.66	3.26
Santiago Casilla	2	2	3.6			0	60	45	24	2	54	29	1.23	8.1	4.35	3.31
Javier Lopez	2	2	3.75			0	60	51	25	1	43	27	1.3	6.45	4.05	3.36
Dan Runzler	1	1	4			0	27	27	12	1	27	16	1.59	9	5.33	3.45
Ryan Vogelsong	11	8	3.55			0	175	160	69	15	136	60	1.26	6.99	3.09	3.75
Jeremy Affeldt	2	2	3.3			0	60	51	22	5	54	25	1.27	8.1	3.75	3.81
Guillermo Mota	3	3	3.73			0	70	62	29	8	61	27	1.27	7.84	3.47	4.07
Clay Hensley	2	2	4.5			0	60	52	30	6	47	26	1.3	7.05	3.9	4.26
Barry Zito	8	8	4.47			0	155	146	77	20	110	69	1.39	6.39	4.01	4.75
Eric Surkamp	1	1	5.88			0	26	32	17	2	13	17	1.88	4.5	5.88	5.16

2012 Colorado Rockies projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Carlos Gonzalez		540	162	31	5	30	90	102	49	118	6	22	0.3	0.365	0.543	0.907	0.396
Troy Tulowitzki		535	162	35	3	30	94	108	61	83	4	9	0.303	0.378	0.548	0.926	0.394
Jason Giambi		145	35	7	0	9	23	22	24	44	4	0	0.241	0.364	0.476	0.84	0.369
Todd Helton		390	112	23	1	10	65	58	61	70	2	0	0.287	0.386	0.428	0.815	0.359
Michael Cuddyer		525	144	29	3	18	71	75	49	92	4	9	0.274	0.341	0.444	0.785	0.346
Eric Young		245	68	5	4	0	32	25	33	46	4	31	0.278	0.372	0.331	0.703	0.341
Dexter Fowler		525	135	35	16	6	87	51	76	133	5	16	0.257	0.356	0.419	0.775	0.341
Wilin Rosario		275	68	15	5	15	31	45	11	96	0	0	0.247	0.276	0.502	0.778	0.332
Ramon Hernandez		375	106	18	0	11	49	50	31	55	6	0	0.283	0.347	0.419	0.766	0.332
Marco Scutaro		450	125	28	1	8	57	58	45	49	2	5	0.278	0.346	0.398	0.744	0.33
Casey Blake		250	63	13	1	7	32	31	29	64	4	1	0.252	0.339	0.396	0.735	0.326
Chris Nelson		200	58	11	1	4	23	26	8	37	1	4	0.29	0.321	0.415	0.736	0.323
Jonathan Herrera		410	116	8	2	4	61	40	43	59	1	5	0.283	0.352	0.341	0.694	0.312
Charlie Blackmon		251	68	3	0	3	25	25	8	19	0	14	0.271	0.293	0.319	0.612	0.276
DJ LeMahieu		200	55	7	0	0	18	19	4	38	0	0	0.275	0.289	0.31	0.599	0.266

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Rafael Betancourt	3	3	2.55			25	60	47	17	7	73	10	0.95	10.95	1.5	2.66
Rex Brothers	2	2	2.7			0	50	41	15	5	73	25	1.32	13.14	4.5	3.02
Matt Belisle	3	3	3.32			0	65	67	24	5	56	12	1.22	7.75	1.66	3.05
Drew Pomeranz	9	7	3.73			0	140	147	58	11	101	39	1.33	6.49	2.51	3.62
Juan Nicasio	3	3	3.45			0	60	62	23	7	49	15	1.28	7.35	2.25	3.76
Jorge de la Rosa	3	3	3.99			0	70	61	31	7	66	30	1.3	8.49	3.86	3.91
Josh Outman	6	7	4.58			0	120	124	61	9	76	47	1.43	5.7	3.53	3.96
Jhoulys Chacin	13	10	3.73			0	205	175	85	20	170	93	1.31	7.46	4.08	4.14
Guillermo Moscoso	8	9	4.73			0	175	141	92	19	103	53	1.11	5.3	2.73	4.27
Jeremy Guthrie	8	10	4.2			0	195	196	91	25	118	58	1.3	5.45	2.68	4.58
Matt Reynolds	3	3	3.6			0	60	54	24	11	59	21	1.25	8.85	3.15	4.6
Edgmer Escalona	1	1	5.04			0	25	17	14	3	13	8	1	4.68	2.88	4.68
Esmil Rogers	3	3	5.25			0	60	79	35	8	48	31	1.83	7.2	4.65	4.96
Tyler Chatwood	4	4	4.9			0	90	105	49	9	47	45	1.67	4.7	4.5	4.97
Alex White	7	8	5.08			0	140	170	79	35	101	68	1.7	6.49	4.37	6.56

2012 Los Angeles Dodgers projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Matt Kemp		580	174	29	5	33	99	104	65	151	5	31	0.3	0.375	0.538	0.913	0.389
Andre Ethier		525	148	33	1	17	83	83	63	107	4	1	0.282	0.363	0.446	0.809	0.351
Jerry Sands		475	111	27	1	20	64	62	65	112	2	6	0.234	0.328	0.421	0.749	0.331
James Loney		545	154	32	2	12	77	75	48	72	2	5	0.283	0.343	0.415	0.758	0.33
A.J. Ellis		250	62	6	2	4	34	25	38	46	6	0	0.248	0.361	0.336	0.697	0.317
Juan Rivera		250	65	12	0	7	30	30	22	38	2	1	0.26	0.325	0.392	0.717	0.316
Dee Gordon		555	165	23	8	0	74	48	19	62	0	50	0.297	0.321	0.368	0.688	0.313
Jerry Hairston		270	70	14	1	5	32	30	24	38	4	4	0.259	0.329	0.374	0.703	0.313
Tony Gwynn		250	66	9	4	2	29	27	25	46	1	15	0.264	0.333	0.356	0.689	0.312
Matt Treanor		200	49	6	0	3	26	19	28	51	4	1	0.245	0.349	0.32	0.669	0.305
Mark Ellis		450	115	22	1	7	58	44	28	67	6	11	0.256	0.308	0.356	0.663	0.297
Juan Uribe		350	84	17	1	10	40	41	26	71	5	1	0.24	0.302	0.38	0.682	0.297
Ivan De Jesus		330	87	11	0	6	36	29	22	107	0	2	0.264	0.31	0.352	0.661	0.295
Adam Kennedy		220	56	12	1	3	24	24	16	37	1	5	0.255	0.308	0.359	0.667	0.294
Justin Sellers		180	41	13	0	2	20	18	18	30	3	1	0.228	0.308	0.333	0.642	0.291
Tim Federowicz		155	28	0	0	0	19	8	26	44	12	0	0.181	0.342	0.181	0.523	0.267

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Kenley Jansen	2	2	1.95			15	60	33	13	3	105	30	1.05	15.75	4.5	1.83
Clayton Kershaw	21	6	2.3			0	215	163	55	14	227	65	1.06	9.5	2.72	2.78
Josh Lindblom	2	2	3.9			0	60	43	26	4	58	21	1.07	8.7	3.15	3.21
Scott Elbert	2	2	3.6			0	60	51	24	5	62	27	1.3	9.3	4.05	3.55
Javy Guerra	2	2	3.75			15	60	48	25	4	49	23	1.18	7.35	3.45	3.61
Chad Billingsley	11	10	4.06			0	195	189	88	13	166	82	1.39	7.66	3.78	3.63
Todd Coffey	2	2	3.93			0	55	53	24	5	44	18	1.29	7.2	2.95	3.75
Matt Guerrier	2	2	3.9			0	60	52	26	5	42	21	1.22	6.3	3.15	3.86
Rubby De La Rosa	2	2	3.6			0	60	54	24	6	60	31	1.42	9	4.65	3.93
Chris Capuano	10	8	3.91			0	175	184	76	25	156	51	1.34	8.02	2.62	4.1
Mike MacDougal	2	2	3.93			0	55	54	24	3	39	30	1.53	6.38	4.91	4.17
Ted Lilly	11	8	3.65			0	180	159	73	27	151	46	1.14	7.55	2.3	4.24
Aaron Harang	10	10	4.25			0	180	195	85	23	135	59	1.41	6.75	2.95	4.29
Blake Hawksworth	2	2	3.75			0	60	60	25	8	44	21	1.35	6.6	3.15	4.45
Ramon Troncoso	0	0	3.68			0	22	28	9	3	14	6	1.55	5.73	2.45	4.53
Nathan Eovaldi	4	5	4.77			0	100	82	53	8	67	58	1.4	6.03	5.22	4.67

2012 San Diego Padres projections.

Name	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Carlos Quentin		420	106	27	1	24	66	72	40	79	21	2	0.252	0.347	0.493	0.84	0.367
Jesus Guzman		270	77	24	2	6	34	36	24	46	1	8	0.285	0.346	0.456	0.801	0.351
Yonder Alonso		480	135	23	0	19	72	72	50	114	0	0	0.281	0.349	0.448	0.797	0.35
Chris Denorfia		240	69	11	2	5	31	29	23	40	1	8	0.288	0.352	0.413	0.765	0.337
Nick Hundley		290	78	17	4	9	37	40	25	74	3	1	0.269	0.333	0.448	0.782	0.336
Cameron Maybin		545	144	24	8	11	74	71	49	133	3	34	0.264	0.328	0.398	0.726	0.328
Will Venable		380	95	14	7	11	57	34	36	103	4	22	0.25	0.321	0.411	0.732	0.327
Kyle Blanks		180	41	8	1	8	22	22	20	57	3	2	0.228	0.315	0.417	0.732	0.326
Chase Headley		535	143	33	2	8	80	55	64	126	3	15	0.267	0.349	0.381	0.73	0.325
John Baker		200	52	11	1	3	25	22	25	48	2	0	0.26	0.348	0.37	0.718	0.323
Orlando Hudson		410	106	18	4	6	51	46	47	81	3	12	0.259	0.339	0.366	0.705	0.315
Mark Kotsay		220	59	12	1	4	26	25	20	26	0	2	0.268	0.329	0.386	0.716	0.313
Jason Bartlett		515	137	24	3	4	60	53	47	92	5	19	0.266	0.333	0.348	0.681	0.31

Name	W	L	ERA	GS	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Cory Luebke	11	7	3.09			0	160	123	55	14	177	51	1.09	9.96	2.87	3.02
Luke Gregerson	2	2	3.75			0	60	52	25	3	52	19	1.18	7.8	2.85	3.05
Joe Thatcher	1	1	3.83			0	40	32	17	3	45	16	1.2	10.13	3.6	3.08
Ernesto Frieri	2	2	4.05			0	60	46	27	3	74	32	1.3	11.1	4.8	3.21
Huston Street	2	2	3.06			32	50	48	17	7	49	10	1.16	8.82	1.8	3.6
Tim Stauffer	11	8	3.41			0	190	180	72	19	133	56	1.24	6.3	2.65	3.99
Clayton Richard	6	6	4.2			0	120	125	56	10	78	47	1.43	5.85	3.53	4.09
Brad Brach	1	1	4.05			0	40	51	18	4	63	40	2.28	14.18	9	4.38
Josh Spence	1	1	4.5			0	40	19	20	4	42	26	1.13	9.45	5.85	4.38
Dustin Moseley	7	7	4.11			0	140	140	64	15	75	45	1.32	4.82	2.89	4.43
Anthony Bass	3	3	4.4			0	90	77	44	7	45	39	1.29	4.5	3.9	4.46
Andrew Cashner	2	2	4.05			0	60	48	27	7	53	30	1.3	7.95	4.5	4.48
Micah Owings	3	3	4.61			0	80	74	41	10	59	36	1.38	6.64	4.05	4.73
Edinson Volquez	6	7	4.37			0	140	133	68	21	139	82	1.54	8.94	5.27	4.93
Erik Hamren	1	1	5.4			0	40	33	24	5	33	30	1.58	7.43	6.75	5.46

 

[proshares]

Solving the Rays rotation crunch.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

I’ll admit it: when Andrew Friedman said at the beginning of the off-season that the Rays didn’t need to trade a starter, I called bull. It’s no secret that the Rays have a glut of major-league-ready starting pitching, with seven starters who could theoretically be in the opening day rotation*, so I wrote off Friedman’s comments as positioning. You don’t want to announce to the world that you desperately need to trade a starter, thereby jettisoning your leverage. Friedman was playing his hand, but there’s no chance the Rays would actually enter the 2012 season without dealing a starter…right?

*In case you’re having a brain fart: David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Alex Cobb.

As it turns out, wrong. The market ended up being flooded with starters, and there was never a surplus of demand that would have pushed up offers for either Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis. Who saw Gio Gonzalez and Jeremy Guthrie being traded? Or Roy Oswalt staying on the market this late? It was a poor off-season to be stuck trying to deal a mediocre starter, so now the Rays are faced with the task of making all their pitchers fit their roster without decreasing anyone’s trade value.

But the solution to this glut of pitching is simpler than it seems: keep Alex Cobb in Triple-A, and move Wade Davis to the bullpen. That may not seem ideal, but based on his pitch repertoire and success, Davis may be destined to move to the bullpen anyway.

Considering he was once one of the top pitching prospects in the Rays system, Wade Davis has been somewhat of a disappointment. After striking out over 20 percent of hitters at every step in the minors (outside one poor year in Double-A), he initially burst into the majors at the tail end of 2009 with such promise; he struck out 24 percent of the batters he faced, helping Rays fans forget that he was replacing Scott Kazmir in the rotation.

This success should have come with a minor warning bell, though. Despite the strikeouts, Davis only generated a league-average amount of swinging strikes (8.8 percent), suggesting that his strikeout rate was potentially too good to be true. Some regression was expected in 2010, and Davis did struggle that season; his strikeout rate dropped to below league average (16 percent), and batters rarely swung and missed at his pitches (6 percent). But instead of rebounding in 2011 and adjusting in a positive way, Davis continued to backtrack in 2011 (13 percent strikeout rate) and raised some serious concerns about his ability to be a viable major-league starter.

If you break down Davis’ results by pitch, the data doesn’t look any more encouraging. Davis has been able to fool hitters with his pitches less and less often each season:


Pitch classifications and data from Brooks Baseball.

To place these numbers in some context, Jeff Niemann posted a league-average strikeout rate last season (18 percent) with the following breakdown: 12-14 percent swinging strikes on his fastballs; 27 percent whiffs on his curveball and slider. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hellickson posted a meger 15 percent strikeout rate, but managed to get hitters to whiff at his curveball and changeup 30+ percent of the time.

In general, if you want to post a decent strikeout rate in the majors, you need to have at least one or two out-pitches that can consistently make hitters miss. Davis’ best out-pitch was only getting a swinging strike once every five times a hitter swung at it last season, while Hellickson and Niemann had pitches they could drop in for a whiff once every three or four times.

Is this to say that Davis is doomed and can never improve? No, certainly not. He obviously had swing-and-miss stuff at one point, and it’s not unheard of for young pitchers to improve their whiff and strikeout rates from one year to another. Doug Fister had a horrendous whiff rate in 2010 — four percent — but he boosted that up to nearly 7 percent in 2011 and increased his strikeout rate as a result. Also, Joe Blanton increased both his strikeout and swinging strike rates dramatically after moving to Philadelphia.

In general, though, these pitchers appear to be the exception to the rule. If you look at the leaderboard of pitchers who have posted swinging strike rates below 6 percent over the course of a season (since 2005, at least), you won’t find many pitchers who dramatically changed their career. In fact, it’s difficult to find a single pitcher who ever got their strikeout rate to league average. Joe Saunders. Chris Volstad. Trevor Cahill. Brian Bannister. Zach Duke. Kyle Lohse. Jeremy Guthrie. Mike Pelfrey. It’s a mediocre list, at best, and it goes on and on.

Maybe Wade Davis can turn things around, but from this perspective, his upside in the rotation appears limited. If he may only ever develop into a +1 to +2 win pitcher, why not try him in the bullpen and see what he can do? The Rays certainly have the pitching depth to give it a shot, and they only owe him a guaranteed $12 million over the next three seasons. He would be an expensive reliever for the Rays, but if he turned into a bullpen ace, he’d be a relatively good value.

The Rays pitching coach, Jim Hickey, has already hinted that Davis could move to the ‘pen to start the season. If he does well out there, I wouldn’t be surprised if this move became more than just a temporary fix.

Rangers extend Cruz through arbitration years.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

With how good Nelson Cruz has been for the Rangers over the last few seasons, it can be easy to forget just how tumultuous his road to the majors was. It wasn’t too long ago, however, that Cruz was the definition of the “Quad-A

 

[proshares]

Solving the Rays rotation crunch.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

I’ll admit it: when Andrew Friedman said at the beginning of the off-season that the Rays didn’t need to trade a starter, I called bull. It’s no secret that the Rays have a glut of major-league-ready starting pitching, with seven starters who could theoretically be in the opening day rotation*, so I wrote off Friedman’s comments as positioning. You don’t want to announce to the world that you desperately need to trade a starter, thereby jettisoning your leverage. Friedman was playing his hand, but there’s no chance the Rays would actually enter the 2012 season without dealing a starter…right?

*In case you’re having a brain fart: David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Alex Cobb.

As it turns out, wrong. The market ended up being flooded with starters, and there was never a surplus of demand that would have pushed up offers for either Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis. Who saw Gio Gonzalez and Jeremy Guthrie being traded? Or Roy Oswalt staying on the market this late? It was a poor off-season to be stuck trying to deal a mediocre starter, so now the Rays are faced with the task of making all their pitchers fit their roster without decreasing anyone’s trade value.

But the solution to this glut of pitching is simpler than it seems: keep Alex Cobb in Triple-A, and move Wade Davis to the bullpen. That may not seem ideal, but based on his pitch repertoire and success, Davis may be destined to move to the bullpen anyway.

Considering he was once one of the top pitching prospects in the Rays system, Wade Davis has been somewhat of a disappointment. After striking out over 20 percent of hitters at every step in the minors (outside one poor year in Double-A), he initially burst into the majors at the tail end of 2009 with such promise; he struck out 24 percent of the batters he faced, helping Rays fans forget that he was replacing Scott Kazmir in the rotation.

This success should have come with a minor warning bell, though. Despite the strikeouts, Davis only generated a league-average amount of swinging strikes (8.8 percent), suggesting that his strikeout rate was potentially too good to be true. Some regression was expected in 2010, and Davis did struggle that season; his strikeout rate dropped to below league average (16 percent), and batters rarely swung and missed at his pitches (6 percent). But instead of rebounding in 2011 and adjusting in a positive way, Davis continued to backtrack in 2011 (13 percent strikeout rate) and raised some serious concerns about his ability to be a viable major-league starter.

If you break down Davis’ results by pitch, the data doesn’t look any more encouraging. Davis has been able to fool hitters with his pitches less and less often each season:


Pitch classifications and data from Brooks Baseball.

To place these numbers in some context, Jeff Niemann posted a league-average strikeout rate last season (18 percent) with the following breakdown: 12-14 percent swinging strikes on his fastballs; 27 percent whiffs on his curveball and slider. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hellickson posted a meger 15 percent strikeout rate, but managed to get hitters to whiff at his curveball and changeup 30+ percent of the time.

In general, if you want to post a decent strikeout rate in the majors, you need to have at least one or two out-pitches that can consistently make hitters miss. Davis’ best out-pitch was only getting a swinging strike once every five times a hitter swung at it last season, while Hellickson and Niemann had pitches they could drop in for a whiff once every three or four times.

Is this to say that Davis is doomed and can never improve? No, certainly not. He obviously had swing-and-miss stuff at one point, and it’s not unheard of for young pitchers to improve their whiff and strikeout rates from one year to another. Doug Fister had a horrendous whiff rate in 2010 — four percent — but he boosted that up to nearly 7 percent in 2011 and increased his strikeout rate as a result. Also, Joe Blanton increased both his strikeout and swinging strike rates dramatically after moving to Philadelphia.

In general, though, these pitchers appear to be the exception to the rule. If you look at the leaderboard of pitchers who have posted swinging strike rates below 6 percent over the course of a season (since 2005, at least), you won’t find many pitchers who dramatically changed their career. In fact, it’s difficult to find a single pitcher who ever got their strikeout rate to league average. Joe Saunders. Chris Volstad. Trevor Cahill. Brian Bannister. Zach Duke. Kyle Lohse. Jeremy Guthrie. Mike Pelfrey. It’s a mediocre list, at best, and it goes on and on.

Maybe Wade Davis can turn things around, but from this perspective, his upside in the rotation appears limited. If he may only ever develop into a +1 to +2 win pitcher, why not try him in the bullpen and see what he can do? The Rays certainly have the pitching depth to give it a shot, and they only owe him a guaranteed $12 million over the next three seasons. He would be an expensive reliever for the Rays, but if he turned into a bullpen ace, he’d be a relatively good value.

The Rays pitching coach, Jim Hickey, has already hinted that Davis could move to the ‘pen to start the season. If he does well out there, I wouldn’t be surprised if this move became more than just a temporary fix.

Rangers extend Cruz through arbitration years.

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With how good Nelson Cruz has been for the Rangers over the last few seasons, it can be easy to forget just how tumultuous his road to the majors was. It wasn’t too long ago, however, that Cruz was the definition of the “Quad-A

 

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The 10 worst transactions of the winter.

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Major League teams are getting smarter. In prior years, we would have had easy pickings like the Barry Zito contract, the Carlos Lee signing, and even last year’s Vernon Wells acquisition. This year, there were some guys who got too much money, but there weren’t many instances of teams just paying through the nose for guys who just aren’t very good. I considered cutting this list down to just five transactions, honestly, as a few of the back-end ones have a decent chance of turning out okay for their respective teams, or the costs just are small enough that they aren’t really going to negatively effect the franchises in a big way. There were only a few deals this winter that I’d say teams are really going to regret long term. But, I said we’d do 10 of each, so here we go.

Like yesterday, the criteria is expected on field production, cost to acquire, and the impact the move will make in both the short run and long run for the franchise. These moves represent transactions where the team gave up something of legitimate value and, in my estimation, aren’t likely to get enough back in return to justify their investment.

#10 – Twins Sign Matt Capps for 1/4.75M

It’s a one year deal, so there’s no long term cost to the franchise. $5 million spent on another player wouldn’t have changed the Twins fortunes one way or another. But, still, it’s hard to understand why the Twins thought they needed to give Capps this kind of contract. He was a below replacement level reliever last year, watched his strikeout rate drop from 19.3% to 12.4%, and gave up home runs in a park where no one gives up home runs. And yet, only six relievers got larger contracts than Capps this winter. Darren Oliver got less. Francisco Cordero got less. LaTroy Hawkins got less. If the Twins wanted to spend $5 million on their bullpen, they could have gotten two or three decent arms for that. Instead, they got one mediocre arm who will continue to remind them that they could have still had Wilson Ramos instead.

#9 – Royals Sign Bruce Chen For 2/9M

Bruce Chen is 35-years-old and has been a below average pitcher for nearly his entire career, and he showed no real signs of improvement last year – his low ERA was essentially just about preventing hits with men on base. There’s no reason to think that Chen has turned a corner at this point in his career, and he’s still just a generic #5 starter nearing the end of his career. Better pitchers than Chen had to settle for minor league contracts. Meanwhile, the Royals decided to throw money at the type of pitcher that the rest of baseball has learned isn’t worth any kind of guarantee. For a team with a limited budget, efficiency is mandatory, and this isn’t a very good way to spend 10% of their overall budget.

#8 – Rangers Sign Joe Nathan For 2/14M

During his prime, Nathan was one of the best relievers in baseball. Then he had Tommy John surgery, spent a year on the DL, and was essentially a replacement level arm during his first year back on the mound in 2011. The velocity was still there and he still got a decent amount of strikeouts, but his extreme fly ball ways turned into a home run problem, and going to Texas probably isn’t going to alleviate that issue. Nathan’s a decent enough bounce back candidate, but that’s why they invented one year deals with incentives. At 2/14, the Rangers should have gotten a sure thing, but Nathan is a high-risk arm who hasn’t been a good pitcher since 2009. If Texas would have shown a bit more patience, they probably could have ended up with Ryan Madson instead.

#7 – Brewers Sign Aramis Ramirez For 3/36M

The Brewers knew they were losing Prince Fielder, and they wanted to sign a good hitter to defray some of the cost of having him walk away. Ramirez posted a 133 wRC+ last year, and at just $12 million per year, he fit into the Brewers budget. However, he’s a lousy defender who is headed for his age 34 season, was basically replacement level in 2010, and blocked off third base from Taylor Green, who probably could have provided some value at the hot corner for the league minimum and allowed the Brewers to spend their money upgrading at shortstop or at first base. Ramirez will probably be worth the money in 2012, but they’ve locked themselves into declining performance at the position for the next several years. There were better ways to spend $36 million this winter than by giving it to Ramirez.

#6 – Marlins Sign Mark Buehrle for 4/58M

The Marlins wanted to make a big splash this winter, and set their sights on most of the big name free agents on the market. Unfortunately for them, C.J. Wilson wanted to stay on the west coast, so they ended up with money burning a hole in their pocket and Mark Buehrle as the most willing recipient of that cash. Buehrle has been a durable pitcher with a long track record of success, but he turns 33 in March and has racked up a lot of miles on his left arm. Committing $14.5 million per year to sign a guy who relies on beating his peripherals is a bit scary to begin with – when you factor in his advancing age, this looks like a deal that could end poorly for the Marlins.

#5 – Nationals Acquire Gio Gonzalez For Brad Peacock, Derek Norris, A.J. Cole, and Tom Milone

If you think Gio Gonzalez’s ERA the last two seasons are more indicative of what we should expect going forward, then the Nationals made a nice trade and this will work out well for them. I’m more of the mind that he’s due for a pretty significant step backwards, though, which makes him more of a good pitcher than any kind of ace, and the command problems offer enough risk of collapse to be a real concern. And, for me, the cost of acquiring that kind of high risk arm was too high, especially when you factor in Gonzalez’s Super-Two status, which necessitated a 5 year, $42 million extension to buy out his arbitration years. It’s one thing to give up three good prospects and a potential back-end starter for a guy who provides a lot of value at a low cost, but Gonzalez is no longer all that cheap. The Nationals could have spent $40 million in free agency and walked away with a +3 win player while maintaining depth on the farm. Unless Gonzalez takes a big leap forward, this looks like an overpay to me.

#4 – Rockies Sign Michael Cuddyer For 3/31M

Cuddyer gets a lot of bonus points in the game for his versatility and his leadership. Unfortunately, he just plays a lot of positions poorly, and his character doesn’t make up for the fact that the Rockies spent $30 million to tread water in the outfield. Cuddyer is a marginal upgrade at best over Seth Smith, who was shipped out for some magic beans after losing his job when Cuddyer was signed to play right field. He’s an okay but not great hitter who will be 33 when the season begins, and he’s never shown much value with the glove. The Rockies needed to make some real improvements this winter, but instead, their primary acquisition was just a more expensive, older version of what they already had. They could have simply kept Smith, gotten a real platoon partner for him, and then spent the remaining money upgrading third base or the rotation. As it is, they’ve locked themselves into a mediocre player headed into his decline phase.

#3 – Marlins Sign Heath Bell for 3/27M

This deal doesn’t really make sense from a baseball perspective, as Bell’s declining strikeout rates, advancing age, and need to sustain low HR/FB rates while leaving Petco Park make him a guy with numerous red flags. In fact, the only argument I’ve seen in favor of this deal were that Bell was brought in as a lure to show other free agents that the team was serious about winning. Even on that criteria, though, the deal didn’t work – Wilson and Albert Pujols both went to Anaheim instead, and the Marlins certainly didn’t get a discount on signing Buehrle because Bell was going to be his teammate. The Marlins didn’t need to give Bell three years to land a quality reliever, and there’s a good chance they’ll regret this contract sooner than later.

#2 – Tigers Sign Prince Fielder for 9/214M

Prince Fielder is a good player, but this is three years and about $70 million too much for what he brings to the table. Yes, the Tigers are in win-now mode, and yes, Fielder makes them better in the short term, but the reality is that if the Tigers had this kind of payroll flexibility, they should have simply been far more active earlier in the off-season, as they could have improved their roster significantly more by spreading the cash around to bring in multiple players and fill a number of holes. Instead, the team overreacted to the Victor Martinez injury and compromised the long term health of the organization for a short term gain in the standings. The fact that Mike Illitch might not be around to see the end of the contract doesn’t make the deal any less damaging to the Tigers franchise – it just means that the current owner is borrowing from the next owner’s pockets in order to achieve his own personal goal. Of all the moves made this winter, this is the one that has the potential to really cripple a franchise – they need it to pay off in 2012, because the long term costs of this deal are going to be extremely harmful to the organization.

#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

The Tigers overpaid and got a star. The Phillies overpaid and got a reliever, then had salt rubbed in the wound when the reliever they were replacing ended up signing with another NL contender for 17% of the guaranteed money they gave Papelbon. The list of big contracts for free agent relievers that have turned out well is extremely short, and while Papelbon has been a very good reliever thus far in his career, he’s not without his own set of risks. For a team that had other holes to fill, this just wasn’t a good use of resources, especially with the glut of relievers on the market. By exercising a little more patience, the Phillies could have walked away with a good closer, a real answer in left field, upgraded their bench, and had enough left over to convince Roy Oswalt to return. Instead, they decided to go all-in on a ninth inning upgrade that might not even turn out to be a big upgrade.

Rangers lock up Andrus.

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The Rangers have reportedly been discussing multi-year contract extensions with their many arbitration-eligible players this offseason, and yesterday they got one of those guys to agree to a deal. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi reported that Elvis Andrus has accepted a three-year contract worth somewhere in the $14-15 million range. The deal doesn’t include any option years.

Andrus was up for salary arbitration for the first time this offseason, so the new contract buys out all three of his arbitration years but no free agent years. The Rangers get some financial certainty through 2014 while Scott Boras still gets to take his young shortstop client out onto the open market at age 26, which could turn into a monster payday given his position.

We have yet to see the breakdown of the new contract, but Andrus had filed for $3.6 million through arbitration while the team countered with $2.65 million. Something along the lines of $3 million/$5 million/$7 million from 2012-2014 makes sense, give or take a few hundred grand each year (and possibly a signing bonus). Andrus has been worth ten wins in his three seasons and 4.5 wins in 2011 alone, so the Rangers are getting a significant discount even if settles in as a two-to-three win player. It’s very difficult not to like the deal for the club.

The arbitration process is still very archaic, and defense-first players always get the short end of the stick. Andrus has been one of the four best defensive shortstops in baseball over the last three seasons in terms of UZR (+19.2) and DRS (+2, but good luck explaining that to the impartial three-person panel. His .313 wOBA since breaking in ranks 19th out of 34 qualified shortstops, as his primary offensive value comes from putting the ball in play (career 13.1 K% and .312 BABIP), drawing walks (8.5 BB%), and stealing bases (102-for-135 and at least 32 per year). It’s just not a skillset that pays well during the six years of team control. Arbiters love homers and RBI and things like that.

That said, there is something to be said for being 23 years old and having the kind of financial security most people dream of having. Andrus will be very underpaid if we conservatively assume he’ll settle in as a three-win player and use the standard 40/60/80 arbitration pay scale (so $6 million/$9 million/$12 million), but like I said, that scale doesn’t work for defensive-first guys. He’s going to wind up at something like 20%/33%/45% of market value instead. Andrus was destined to underpaid unless he grew into some power over the next three years (11 career homers and a .073 ISO), but least now he’s pretty much set for life.

It’s worth mentioning that the Rangers do have Jurickson Profar in their system, and he’s generally considered the best shortstop prospect in the game. The 18-year-old posted a .397 wOBA with a dozen homers, 23 steals, and more walks (65) than strikeouts (63) in 516 plate appearances for the club’s Low-A affiliate in 2011, and his timetable suggests that he could step right in for Andrus after the 2014 season. Perhaps he’ll be able to debut at 20 like Andrus and allow the club to trade their incumbent shortstop for a significant return rather than let him walk as a free agent. That’s a long way off though, and prospects have a tendency to screw up long-term plans. Either way, both the Rangers and Andrus did pretty well with the new contract since arbitration still frowns upon those who live off their gloves and not their bats.

Top 15 prospects: Seattle Mariners (*these top 15 articles are by Marc Hulet, another good scout).

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The Seattle Mariners organization is loaded with high-ceiling pitching arms and could field one of the most potent pitching staffs in the game within the next two to three years. The club has done a great job of building an organizational strength that will thrive in its home environment. The front office spent time this past off-season answering questions about its future offense with the addition of Jesus Montero, one of the most potent bats in the minor leagues. The organization has some other interesting position players but a lot of them are raw and years away from helping out at the big league level.

1. Jesus Montero, C/DH
BORN: Nov. 28, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2006 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st (Yankees)

The Mariners organization acquired one of the top offensive prospects in baseball but it cost the organization dearly with pitchers Michael Pineda and Jose Campos heading to the New York Yankees. The Mariners front office suggests that Montero will continue to catch, although the general consensus remains that he’ll move to first base or designated hitter sooner rather than later. The right-handed hitter made his MLB debut in 2011 and showed the ability to hit for both power and average despite the fact he didn’t turn 22 until this past November. Despite his youth, Montero already has five years of pro experience, as well as two full seasons in triple-A. He’s ready for prime time and could be the Mariners best hitter in 2012 – as a rookie. The home ball park could hamper his numbers a bit but the all-star potential could be there for years to come.

2. Danny Hultzen, LHP
BORN: Nov. 28, 1989
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (2nd overall), University of Virginia
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

Almost every single mock draft had Danny Hultzen heading to the Arizona Diamondbacks with the third pick of the 2011 draft. Seattle put an end to that speculation when it nabbed the southpaw with the second overall pick after Pittsburgh grabbed another college arm, Gerrit Cole, with the first overall selection. The U of Virginia alum signed too late to play during the regular season but he did pitch 19.1 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Hultzen looked good, posting a 2.79 FIP (1.40 ERA) with 18 strikeouts and just five walks. He doesn’t have “explosive stuff

 

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The 10 worst transactions of the winter.

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Major League teams are getting smarter. In prior years, we would have had easy pickings like the Barry Zito contract, the Carlos Lee signing, and even last year’s Vernon Wells acquisition. This year, there were some guys who got too much money, but there weren’t many instances of teams just paying through the nose for guys who just aren’t very good. I considered cutting this list down to just five transactions, honestly, as a few of the back-end ones have a decent chance of turning out okay for their respective teams, or the costs just are small enough that they aren’t really going to negatively effect the franchises in a big way. There were only a few deals this winter that I’d say teams are really going to regret long term. But, I said we’d do 10 of each, so here we go.

Like yesterday, the criteria is expected on field production, cost to acquire, and the impact the move will make in both the short run and long run for the franchise. These moves represent transactions where the team gave up something of legitimate value and, in my estimation, aren’t likely to get enough back in return to justify their investment.

#10 – Twins Sign Matt Capps for 1/4.75M

It’s a one year deal, so there’s no long term cost to the franchise. $5 million spent on another player wouldn’t have changed the Twins fortunes one way or another. But, still, it’s hard to understand why the Twins thought they needed to give Capps this kind of contract. He was a below replacement level reliever last year, watched his strikeout rate drop from 19.3% to 12.4%, and gave up home runs in a park where no one gives up home runs. And yet, only six relievers got larger contracts than Capps this winter. Darren Oliver got less. Francisco Cordero got less. LaTroy Hawkins got less. If the Twins wanted to spend $5 million on their bullpen, they could have gotten two or three decent arms for that. Instead, they got one mediocre arm who will continue to remind them that they could have still had Wilson Ramos instead.

#9 – Royals Sign Bruce Chen For 2/9M

Bruce Chen is 35-years-old and has been a below average pitcher for nearly his entire career, and he showed no real signs of improvement last year – his low ERA was essentially just about preventing hits with men on base. There’s no reason to think that Chen has turned a corner at this point in his career, and he’s still just a generic #5 starter nearing the end of his career. Better pitchers than Chen had to settle for minor league contracts. Meanwhile, the Royals decided to throw money at the type of pitcher that the rest of baseball has learned isn’t worth any kind of guarantee. For a team with a limited budget, efficiency is mandatory, and this isn’t a very good way to spend 10% of their overall budget.

#8 – Rangers Sign Joe Nathan For 2/14M

During his prime, Nathan was one of the best relievers in baseball. Then he had Tommy John surgery, spent a year on the DL, and was essentially a replacement level arm during his first year back on the mound in 2011. The velocity was still there and he still got a decent amount of strikeouts, but his extreme fly ball ways turned into a home run problem, and going to Texas probably isn’t going to alleviate that issue. Nathan’s a decent enough bounce back candidate, but that’s why they invented one year deals with incentives. At 2/14, the Rangers should have gotten a sure thing, but Nathan is a high-risk arm who hasn’t been a good pitcher since 2009. If Texas would have shown a bit more patience, they probably could have ended up with Ryan Madson instead.

#7 – Brewers Sign Aramis Ramirez For 3/36M

The Brewers knew they were losing Prince Fielder, and they wanted to sign a good hitter to defray some of the cost of having him walk away. Ramirez posted a 133 wRC+ last year, and at just $12 million per year, he fit into the Brewers budget. However, he’s a lousy defender who is headed for his age 34 season, was basically replacement level in 2010, and blocked off third base from Taylor Green, who probably could have provided some value at the hot corner for the league minimum and allowed the Brewers to spend their money upgrading at shortstop or at first base. Ramirez will probably be worth the money in 2012, but they’ve locked themselves into declining performance at the position for the next several years. There were better ways to spend $36 million this winter than by giving it to Ramirez.

#6 – Marlins Sign Mark Buehrle for 4/58M

The Marlins wanted to make a big splash this winter, and set their sights on most of the big name free agents on the market. Unfortunately for them, C.J. Wilson wanted to stay on the west coast, so they ended up with money burning a hole in their pocket and Mark Buehrle as the most willing recipient of that cash. Buehrle has been a durable pitcher with a long track record of success, but he turns 33 in March and has racked up a lot of miles on his left arm. Committing $14.5 million per year to sign a guy who relies on beating his peripherals is a bit scary to begin with – when you factor in his advancing age, this looks like a deal that could end poorly for the Marlins.

#5 – Nationals Acquire Gio Gonzalez For Brad Peacock, Derek Norris, A.J. Cole, and Tom Milone

If you think Gio Gonzalez’s ERA the last two seasons are more indicative of what we should expect going forward, then the Nationals made a nice trade and this will work out well for them. I’m more of the mind that he’s due for a pretty significant step backwards, though, which makes him more of a good pitcher than any kind of ace, and the command problems offer enough risk of collapse to be a real concern. And, for me, the cost of acquiring that kind of high risk arm was too high, especially when you factor in Gonzalez’s Super-Two status, which necessitated a 5 year, $42 million extension to buy out his arbitration years. It’s one thing to give up three good prospects and a potential back-end starter for a guy who provides a lot of value at a low cost, but Gonzalez is no longer all that cheap. The Nationals could have spent $40 million in free agency and walked away with a +3 win player while maintaining depth on the farm. Unless Gonzalez takes a big leap forward, this looks like an overpay to me.

#4 – Rockies Sign Michael Cuddyer For 3/31M

Cuddyer gets a lot of bonus points in the game for his versatility and his leadership. Unfortunately, he just plays a lot of positions poorly, and his character doesn’t make up for the fact that the Rockies spent $30 million to tread water in the outfield. Cuddyer is a marginal upgrade at best over Seth Smith, who was shipped out for some magic beans after losing his job when Cuddyer was signed to play right field. He’s an okay but not great hitter who will be 33 when the season begins, and he’s never shown much value with the glove. The Rockies needed to make some real improvements this winter, but instead, their primary acquisition was just a more expensive, older version of what they already had. They could have simply kept Smith, gotten a real platoon partner for him, and then spent the remaining money upgrading third base or the rotation. As it is, they’ve locked themselves into a mediocre player headed into his decline phase.

#3 – Marlins Sign Heath Bell for 3/27M

This deal doesn’t really make sense from a baseball perspective, as Bell’s declining strikeout rates, advancing age, and need to sustain low HR/FB rates while leaving Petco Park make him a guy with numerous red flags. In fact, the only argument I’ve seen in favor of this deal were that Bell was brought in as a lure to show other free agents that the team was serious about winning. Even on that criteria, though, the deal didn’t work – Wilson and Albert Pujols both went to Anaheim instead, and the Marlins certainly didn’t get a discount on signing Buehrle because Bell was going to be his teammate. The Marlins didn’t need to give Bell three years to land a quality reliever, and there’s a good chance they’ll regret this contract sooner than later.

#2 – Tigers Sign Prince Fielder for 9/214M

Prince Fielder is a good player, but this is three years and about $70 million too much for what he brings to the table. Yes, the Tigers are in win-now mode, and yes, Fielder makes them better in the short term, but the reality is that if the Tigers had this kind of payroll flexibility, they should have simply been far more active earlier in the off-season, as they could have improved their roster significantly more by spreading the cash around to bring in multiple players and fill a number of holes. Instead, the team overreacted to the Victor Martinez injury and compromised the long term health of the organization for a short term gain in the standings. The fact that Mike Illitch might not be around to see the end of the contract doesn’t make the deal any less damaging to the Tigers franchise – it just means that the current owner is borrowing from the next owner’s pockets in order to achieve his own personal goal. Of all the moves made this winter, this is the one that has the potential to really cripple a franchise – they need it to pay off in 2012, because the long term costs of this deal are going to be extremely harmful to the organization.

#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

The Tigers overpaid and got a star. The Phillies overpaid and got a reliever, then had salt rubbed in the wound when the reliever they were replacing ended up signing with another NL contender for 17% of the guaranteed money they gave Papelbon. The list of big contracts for free agent relievers that have turned out well is extremely short, and while Papelbon has been a very good reliever thus far in his career, he’s not without his own set of risks. For a team that had other holes to fill, this just wasn’t a good use of resources, especially with the glut of relievers on the market. By exercising a little more patience, the Phillies could have walked away with a good closer, a real answer in left field, upgraded their bench, and had enough left over to convince Roy Oswalt to return. Instead, they decided to go all-in on a ninth inning upgrade that might not even turn out to be a big upgrade.

Rangers lock up Andrus.

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The Rangers have reportedly been discussing multi-year contract extensions with their many arbitration-eligible players this offseason, and yesterday they got one of those guys to agree to a deal. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi reported that Elvis Andrus has accepted a three-year contract worth somewhere in the $14-15 million range. The deal doesn’t include any option years.

Andrus was up for salary arbitration for the first time this offseason, so the new contract buys out all three of his arbitration years but no free agent years. The Rangers get some financial certainty through 2014 while Scott Boras still gets to take his young shortstop client out onto the open market at age 26, which could turn into a monster payday given his position.

We have yet to see the breakdown of the new contract, but Andrus had filed for $3.6 million through arbitration while the team countered with $2.65 million. Something along the lines of $3 million/$5 million/$7 million from 2012-2014 makes sense, give or take a few hundred grand each year (and possibly a signing bonus). Andrus has been worth ten wins in his three seasons and 4.5 wins in 2011 alone, so the Rangers are getting a significant discount even if settles in as a two-to-three win player. It’s very difficult not to like the deal for the club.

The arbitration process is still very archaic, and defense-first players always get the short end of the stick. Andrus has been one of the four best defensive shortstops in baseball over the last three seasons in terms of UZR (+19.2) and DRS (+2, but good luck explaining that to the impartial three-person panel. His .313 wOBA since breaking in ranks 19th out of 34 qualified shortstops, as his primary offensive value comes from putting the ball in play (career 13.1 K% and .312 BABIP), drawing walks (8.5 BB%), and stealing bases (102-for-135 and at least 32 per year). It’s just not a skillset that pays well during the six years of team control. Arbiters love homers and RBI and things like that.

That said, there is something to be said for being 23 years old and having the kind of financial security most people dream of having. Andrus will be very underpaid if we conservatively assume he’ll settle in as a three-win player and use the standard 40/60/80 arbitration pay scale (so $6 million/$9 million/$12 million), but like I said, that scale doesn’t work for defensive-first guys. He’s going to wind up at something like 20%/33%/45% of market value instead. Andrus was destined to underpaid unless he grew into some power over the next three years (11 career homers and a .073 ISO), but least now he’s pretty much set for life.

It’s worth mentioning that the Rangers do have Jurickson Profar in their system, and he’s generally considered the best shortstop prospect in the game. The 18-year-old posted a .397 wOBA with a dozen homers, 23 steals, and more walks (65) than strikeouts (63) in 516 plate appearances for the club’s Low-A affiliate in 2011, and his timetable suggests that he could step right in for Andrus after the 2014 season. Perhaps he’ll be able to debut at 20 like Andrus and allow the club to trade their incumbent shortstop for a significant return rather than let him walk as a free agent. That’s a long way off though, and prospects have a tendency to screw up long-term plans. Either way, both the Rangers and Andrus did pretty well with the new contract since arbitration still frowns upon those who live off their gloves and not their bats.

Top 15 prospects: Seattle Mariners (*these top 15 articles are by Marc Hulet, another good scout).

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The Seattle Mariners organization is loaded with high-ceiling pitching arms and could field one of the most potent pitching staffs in the game within the next two to three years. The club has done a great job of building an organizational strength that will thrive in its home environment. The front office spent time this past off-season answering questions about its future offense with the addition of Jesus Montero, one of the most potent bats in the minor leagues. The organization has some other interesting position players but a lot of them are raw and years away from helping out at the big league level.

1. Jesus Montero, C/DH
BORN: Nov. 28, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2006 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st (Yankees)

The Mariners organization acquired one of the top offensive prospects in baseball but it cost the organization dearly with pitchers Michael Pineda and Jose Campos heading to the New York Yankees. The Mariners front office suggests that Montero will continue to catch, although the general consensus remains that he’ll move to first base or designated hitter sooner rather than later. The right-handed hitter made his MLB debut in 2011 and showed the ability to hit for both power and average despite the fact he didn’t turn 22 until this past November. Despite his youth, Montero already has five years of pro experience, as well as two full seasons in triple-A. He’s ready for prime time and could be the Mariners best hitter in 2012 – as a rookie. The home ball park could hamper his numbers a bit but the all-star potential could be there for years to come.

2. Danny Hultzen, LHP
BORN: Nov. 28, 1989
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (2nd overall), University of Virginia
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

Almost every single mock draft had Danny Hultzen heading to the Arizona Diamondbacks with the third pick of the 2011 draft. Seattle put an end to that speculation when it nabbed the southpaw with the second overall pick after Pittsburgh grabbed another college arm, Gerrit Cole, with the first overall selection. The U of Virginia alum signed too late to play during the regular season but he did pitch 19.1 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Hultzen looked good, posting a 2.79 FIP (1.40 ERA) with 18 strikeouts and just five walks. He doesn’t have “explosive stuff

 

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What the heck happened for Tim Beckham's stock to drop so drastically