- 8,139
- 88
What the heck happened for Tim Beckham's stock to drop so drastically
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- 1,917
- 10
Craig Kimbrel is going to have way more than (Projected 35 saves) he had 46 in 2011
I think the Phillies declined somewhat in offense, Marlins/Nats improved a lot. The Mets are going to be terrible
Thanks Pro
I think the Phillies declined somewhat in offense, Marlins/Nats improved a lot. The Mets are going to be terrible
Thanks Pro
- 1,917
- 10
Craig Kimbrel is going to have way more than (Projected 35 saves) he had 46 in 2011
I think the Phillies declined somewhat in offense, Marlins/Nats improved a lot. The Mets are going to be terrible
Thanks Pro
I think the Phillies declined somewhat in offense, Marlins/Nats improved a lot. The Mets are going to be terrible
Thanks Pro
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- 25,730
- 2,900
Brandon Belt at 24 HRs
keep up the good work Pro. the most up to date thread
.
cant wait for spring training
GO GIANTS!!!!!
keep up the good work Pro. the most up to date thread
cant wait for spring training
GO GIANTS!!!!!
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- 25,730
- 2,900
Brandon Belt at 24 HRs
keep up the good work Pro. the most up to date thread
.
cant wait for spring training
GO GIANTS!!!!!
keep up the good work Pro. the most up to date thread
cant wait for spring training
GO GIANTS!!!!!
- 9,908
- 839
Nice stuff Pro, thanks.
- 9,908
- 839
Nice stuff Pro, thanks.
- 9,908
- 839
Nice stuff Pro, thanks.
- 58,762
- 30,163
- 58,762
- 30,163
Projecting 2011's overachievers.
Prospects who may not have to wait.
Players who need to perform well.
Spoiler [+]
In some ways, a giant season from an unexpected source can be a double-edged sword. While getting a lot more out of a player than you expect going into a season is a great way to amass a bunch of juicy extra wins, predicting what comes next can be a maddening challenge. Whether you're a general manager of a major league team with a $100 million payroll or a general manager of a fantasy baseball team, setting expectations for players after an overachieving season can make or break you down the road.
Previously, we looked at the players who most underperformed their 2011 ZiPS projections last season to get a look at how they will do in 2012. Now we look at the flip side of the coin: the players who most exceeded their projections.
[h3]Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .685
Actual OPS: .895
More than any of the other hitters on this list, Avila's star season came truly out of nowhere. Between ZiPS and the fans surveyed by FanGraphs (.706 OPS), he was generally seen as a young catcher who could continue to fill the role adequately and was a quick learner with the glove. Instead of being merely adequate and accomplishing what Gerald Laird was supposed to in Detroit (and didn't), Avila put up a good season -- by Johnny Bench standards.
In Avila's favor, he just turned 25, so it's extremely unlikely to be a fluke of the Brady Anderson or Kevin Mitchell variety. However, there are solid reasons to expect a merely solid, rather than overwhelming, 2012 season from Avila. He's never done anything near this before, and his .366 batting average on balls in play in 2011 is a number that any player would have an impossible time maintaining. FanGraphs' xBABIP Calculator estimates likely BABIP from hit-ball data and sees Avila's 2011 as justifying only a .329 BABIP, which takes some of the air out of his numbers.
None of this should be taken as suggesting that Avila's a poor player or anything, but it's way too soon to take 2011 to be his expected baseline.
2012 projection: .254/.348/.420, 14 HR, 66 RBIs
[h3]Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .785
Actual OPS: .986
The question for Kemp isn't really whether he'll decline from his 2011 play, but just how far his numbers will drop. Kemp had a tremendous case for being the best player in baseball in 2011 (he was my pick in the ESPN MVP voting), enough for him to put up a 10 WAR season by Baseball Reference's reckoning. To put 10 WAR into respective, that's a Willie Mays peak year and the only 10-win season by any player since Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre in 2004.
It's hard to believe that a year ago Kemp and his agent, Dave Stewart, were fighting with the Dodgers, and Kemp was regularly rumored to be heading out of Los Angeles for pennies on the dollar.
A more normal season is probably in store for Kemp in 2012, but he's still likely to be a superstar, as he's shown he can stick in center field. While Kemp signed a huge contract extension with the Dodgers recently, he doesn't even have to touch 2011's numbers to be a good deal.
2012 projection: .280/.348/.503, 31 HR, 104 RBIs, 32 SB
[h3]Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .847
Actual OPS: 1.047
The trade that brought Vernon Wells to Anaheim and sent Napoli to the Rangers, already having been made fun of in the analytical community for months, looked even worse than anybody expected after 2011 was in the books. While Napoli didn't play a full slate of games, he made his 432 plate appearances count, terrorizing AL pitching to the tune of .320/.414/.631. As if to twist the knife even further, he hit .356/.433/.763 against his previous team.
Napoli's the oldest hitter on this list, having turned 31 in October, so it's very unlikely that he's going to hit like this again anytime soon. But there's one encouraging sign for him overall: He's made great strides with his defense behind the plate. Even if he regresses from his career-high 36 percent caught-stealing rate behind the plate (three years ago, it was as low as 17 percent), he's improved to the point that teams can't run wild on him. He also made very few mistakes behind the plate, committing just two errors and allowing one passed ball in 506 innings. Even with Napoli's bat regressing, his increased adequacy gives him a lot of value to the Rangers and fantasy players.
2012 projection: .272/.361/.538, 26 HR, 67 RBIs
[h3]Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .733
Actual OPS: .928
Thanks to the literally legendary collapse of the Red Sox in the final weeks of the season, Ellsbury's breakout 2011 will be one of the few things fans will look back on positively. Not only did Ellsbury come back well from a 2010 ruined by injury, but he hit 32 home runs, a number nobody saw coming.
Historically, when players have had these kinds of home run breakouts, their follow-up seasons have been a mixed bag. However, players have generally kept quite a bit of improvement from even the flukiest-looking home run totals. While Ellsbury might not hit 30 again, it's extremely likely he'll continue to hit more than the 10 he was hitting just a few years ago. ZiPS projects a decline to 16 home runs, but that's with only 560 projected plate appearances -- if Ellsbury gets 732 plate appearances, he should hit 20 again.
Another encouraging sign is the impressive uptick in his defensive statistics in center. While defensive numbers should be taken with a very large grain of salt in the short term, there's a lot more reason to like his defense than before.
2012 projection: .290/.345/.457, 16 HR, 62 RBIs, 40 SB
[h3]Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .886
Actual OPS: 1.056
The magnitude of Bautista's improvement from 2009 to 2010 is extremely rare in baseball history. He did it again in 2011, not only avoiding regression from his huge 2010 season but actually getting even better. At this time last year, the résumé of Jose Bautista the Superstar was a lot shorter than that of Jose Bautista the Fourth Outfielder. After a second amazing season in a more difficult offensive environment, there's less reason to be skeptical, and ZiPS projects Bautista to have the best OPS in baseball in 2012.
While Rogers Centre is a hitters' park, Bautista's power is such that he could probably hit 40 home runs playing in an airport hangar. ESPN's Home Run Tracker, developed by Greg Rybarczyk, keeps a list of "no doubt" home runs -- those homers that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed 50 feet past the fence. Bautista led baseball in 2011 with 18 of them, 50 percent more than any hitter not named Mike Stanton.
2012 projection: .273/.408/.566, 36 HR, 88 RBI
[h3]Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 6.14
Actual ERA: 2.71
If last year you found a betting outlet that allowed you to bet a dollar on the odds of Vogelsong finishing in the top five in ERA, you would now be living in a much fancier house and driving a much sexier car. As wrong as his ZiPS projection (and well, everyone's projection) turned out to be, Vogelsong's path from a shellacked Pirates flop to unimpressive NPB pitcher to NL All-Star is one of those stories that makes being a baseball fan great.
While his peripherals suggested he wasn't pitching at the level of a 2.71 ERA in 2011, even his FIP of 3.67 leaves him a solid starting pitcher. As great a story as he was, you'd be smart to hedge your bets, as Giants GM Brian Sabean did when signing him to a two-year, $8.3 million deal. Remember, improvement or not, Vogelsong's just a year removed from being a guy allowing six walks a game to Triple-A batters.
2012 projection: 8-10, 4.18 ERA, 153 IP, 119 K's
[h3]Philip Humber, Chicago White Sox[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 6.40
Actual ERA: 3.75
While Humber was a 2003 first-round pick, his status as a prospect had long since evaporated and it looked like Humber had become an organizational player, filling spots in the rotation of Triple-A teams. After being waived twice last winter, Humber landed a rotation spot in Chicago due to injuries and the team's desire to use Chris Sale as a reliever.
Thanks to his changeup, Humber went 8-5 with a 3.10 ERA before the All-Star break but came back to earth in the second half, going 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA in 10 starts.
Despite pitching well in the majors for three months, Humber's record suggests being very cautious about expectations going forward. After all, a pitcher with a 4.67 career ERA against Triple-A hitters isn't generally a great bet to succeed in the majors, and Humber's reliance on his changeup leaves him with a small margin of error. If someone in your fantasy league really wants to grab Humber in your draft this year, let 'em.
2012 projection: 7-8, 4.86 ERA, 140 2/3 IP, 89 K's
[h3]Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 4.64
Actual ERA: 2.83
Like Humber, Fister relies on a changeup, but Fister's change has been harder to hit, and his peripherals have improved (3.02 FIP last year) enough that Detroit's No. 2 starter is a much safer bet than he was a year ago.
Fister's always going to walk a thinner line of success than a power pitcher who strikes out batters with a 95 mph fastball, but he plays in a division where he won't face any scary offenses and will continue to be an above-average starter.
2012 projection: 12-9, 3.98 ERA, 181 1/2 IP, 105 K's
[h3]Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics, and Freddy Garcia, New York Yankees[/h3]
Colon's projected ERA: 5.63
Colon's actual ERA: 4.00
Garcia's projected ERA: 4.83
Garcia's actual ERA: 3.62
They play on different teams now, but Colon and Garcia shared the commonality of being way-past-prime, injury-prone former stars signed to minor league deals by the Yankees last year.
The Yankees ended up winning 97 games in 2011 but entered spring training with a mess of a rotation, consisting of CC Sabathia and a bunch of unknowns and risks. Combined, Colon and Garcia gave the Yankees 311 innings of sub-4 ERA pitching (3.99), far more than anyone expected they had left in their arms.
Whether in the majors or fantasy, both remain extremely risky. Colon had the better peripherals of the pair in 2011 (3.83 FIP vs. Garcia's 4.12) and has the easier park in 2012, but the last time he threw 100 innings before 2011 was 2005, and the A's offense won't make winning games easy. Garcia has an offense that'll net him more wins by remaining in New York, but Yankee Stadium is a rougher place to pitch given his occasional susceptibility to the long ball, and he's an injury risk himself.
Colon's 2012 projection: 6-9, 4.23 ERA, 112 2/3 IP, 80 K's
Garcia's 2012 projection: 9-8, 4.85 ERA, 128 IP, 75 K's
Previously, we looked at the players who most underperformed their 2011 ZiPS projections last season to get a look at how they will do in 2012. Now we look at the flip side of the coin: the players who most exceeded their projections.
[h3]Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .685
Actual OPS: .895
More than any of the other hitters on this list, Avila's star season came truly out of nowhere. Between ZiPS and the fans surveyed by FanGraphs (.706 OPS), he was generally seen as a young catcher who could continue to fill the role adequately and was a quick learner with the glove. Instead of being merely adequate and accomplishing what Gerald Laird was supposed to in Detroit (and didn't), Avila put up a good season -- by Johnny Bench standards.
In Avila's favor, he just turned 25, so it's extremely unlikely to be a fluke of the Brady Anderson or Kevin Mitchell variety. However, there are solid reasons to expect a merely solid, rather than overwhelming, 2012 season from Avila. He's never done anything near this before, and his .366 batting average on balls in play in 2011 is a number that any player would have an impossible time maintaining. FanGraphs' xBABIP Calculator estimates likely BABIP from hit-ball data and sees Avila's 2011 as justifying only a .329 BABIP, which takes some of the air out of his numbers.
None of this should be taken as suggesting that Avila's a poor player or anything, but it's way too soon to take 2011 to be his expected baseline.
2012 projection: .254/.348/.420, 14 HR, 66 RBIs
[h3]Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .785
Actual OPS: .986
The question for Kemp isn't really whether he'll decline from his 2011 play, but just how far his numbers will drop. Kemp had a tremendous case for being the best player in baseball in 2011 (he was my pick in the ESPN MVP voting), enough for him to put up a 10 WAR season by Baseball Reference's reckoning. To put 10 WAR into respective, that's a Willie Mays peak year and the only 10-win season by any player since Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre in 2004.
It's hard to believe that a year ago Kemp and his agent, Dave Stewart, were fighting with the Dodgers, and Kemp was regularly rumored to be heading out of Los Angeles for pennies on the dollar.
A more normal season is probably in store for Kemp in 2012, but he's still likely to be a superstar, as he's shown he can stick in center field. While Kemp signed a huge contract extension with the Dodgers recently, he doesn't even have to touch 2011's numbers to be a good deal.
2012 projection: .280/.348/.503, 31 HR, 104 RBIs, 32 SB
[h3]Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .847
Actual OPS: 1.047
The trade that brought Vernon Wells to Anaheim and sent Napoli to the Rangers, already having been made fun of in the analytical community for months, looked even worse than anybody expected after 2011 was in the books. While Napoli didn't play a full slate of games, he made his 432 plate appearances count, terrorizing AL pitching to the tune of .320/.414/.631. As if to twist the knife even further, he hit .356/.433/.763 against his previous team.
Napoli's the oldest hitter on this list, having turned 31 in October, so it's very unlikely that he's going to hit like this again anytime soon. But there's one encouraging sign for him overall: He's made great strides with his defense behind the plate. Even if he regresses from his career-high 36 percent caught-stealing rate behind the plate (three years ago, it was as low as 17 percent), he's improved to the point that teams can't run wild on him. He also made very few mistakes behind the plate, committing just two errors and allowing one passed ball in 506 innings. Even with Napoli's bat regressing, his increased adequacy gives him a lot of value to the Rangers and fantasy players.
2012 projection: .272/.361/.538, 26 HR, 67 RBIs
[h3]Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .733
Actual OPS: .928
Thanks to the literally legendary collapse of the Red Sox in the final weeks of the season, Ellsbury's breakout 2011 will be one of the few things fans will look back on positively. Not only did Ellsbury come back well from a 2010 ruined by injury, but he hit 32 home runs, a number nobody saw coming.
Historically, when players have had these kinds of home run breakouts, their follow-up seasons have been a mixed bag. However, players have generally kept quite a bit of improvement from even the flukiest-looking home run totals. While Ellsbury might not hit 30 again, it's extremely likely he'll continue to hit more than the 10 he was hitting just a few years ago. ZiPS projects a decline to 16 home runs, but that's with only 560 projected plate appearances -- if Ellsbury gets 732 plate appearances, he should hit 20 again.
Another encouraging sign is the impressive uptick in his defensive statistics in center. While defensive numbers should be taken with a very large grain of salt in the short term, there's a lot more reason to like his defense than before.
2012 projection: .290/.345/.457, 16 HR, 62 RBIs, 40 SB
[h3]Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .886
Actual OPS: 1.056
The magnitude of Bautista's improvement from 2009 to 2010 is extremely rare in baseball history. He did it again in 2011, not only avoiding regression from his huge 2010 season but actually getting even better. At this time last year, the résumé of Jose Bautista the Superstar was a lot shorter than that of Jose Bautista the Fourth Outfielder. After a second amazing season in a more difficult offensive environment, there's less reason to be skeptical, and ZiPS projects Bautista to have the best OPS in baseball in 2012.
While Rogers Centre is a hitters' park, Bautista's power is such that he could probably hit 40 home runs playing in an airport hangar. ESPN's Home Run Tracker, developed by Greg Rybarczyk, keeps a list of "no doubt" home runs -- those homers that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed 50 feet past the fence. Bautista led baseball in 2011 with 18 of them, 50 percent more than any hitter not named Mike Stanton.
2012 projection: .273/.408/.566, 36 HR, 88 RBI
[h3]Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 6.14
Actual ERA: 2.71
If last year you found a betting outlet that allowed you to bet a dollar on the odds of Vogelsong finishing in the top five in ERA, you would now be living in a much fancier house and driving a much sexier car. As wrong as his ZiPS projection (and well, everyone's projection) turned out to be, Vogelsong's path from a shellacked Pirates flop to unimpressive NPB pitcher to NL All-Star is one of those stories that makes being a baseball fan great.
While his peripherals suggested he wasn't pitching at the level of a 2.71 ERA in 2011, even his FIP of 3.67 leaves him a solid starting pitcher. As great a story as he was, you'd be smart to hedge your bets, as Giants GM Brian Sabean did when signing him to a two-year, $8.3 million deal. Remember, improvement or not, Vogelsong's just a year removed from being a guy allowing six walks a game to Triple-A batters.
2012 projection: 8-10, 4.18 ERA, 153 IP, 119 K's
[h3]Philip Humber, Chicago White Sox[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 6.40
Actual ERA: 3.75
While Humber was a 2003 first-round pick, his status as a prospect had long since evaporated and it looked like Humber had become an organizational player, filling spots in the rotation of Triple-A teams. After being waived twice last winter, Humber landed a rotation spot in Chicago due to injuries and the team's desire to use Chris Sale as a reliever.
Thanks to his changeup, Humber went 8-5 with a 3.10 ERA before the All-Star break but came back to earth in the second half, going 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA in 10 starts.
Despite pitching well in the majors for three months, Humber's record suggests being very cautious about expectations going forward. After all, a pitcher with a 4.67 career ERA against Triple-A hitters isn't generally a great bet to succeed in the majors, and Humber's reliance on his changeup leaves him with a small margin of error. If someone in your fantasy league really wants to grab Humber in your draft this year, let 'em.
2012 projection: 7-8, 4.86 ERA, 140 2/3 IP, 89 K's
[h3]Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 4.64
Actual ERA: 2.83
Like Humber, Fister relies on a changeup, but Fister's change has been harder to hit, and his peripherals have improved (3.02 FIP last year) enough that Detroit's No. 2 starter is a much safer bet than he was a year ago.
Fister's always going to walk a thinner line of success than a power pitcher who strikes out batters with a 95 mph fastball, but he plays in a division where he won't face any scary offenses and will continue to be an above-average starter.
2012 projection: 12-9, 3.98 ERA, 181 1/2 IP, 105 K's
[h3]Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics, and Freddy Garcia, New York Yankees[/h3]
Colon's projected ERA: 5.63
Colon's actual ERA: 4.00
Garcia's projected ERA: 4.83
Garcia's actual ERA: 3.62
They play on different teams now, but Colon and Garcia shared the commonality of being way-past-prime, injury-prone former stars signed to minor league deals by the Yankees last year.
The Yankees ended up winning 97 games in 2011 but entered spring training with a mess of a rotation, consisting of CC Sabathia and a bunch of unknowns and risks. Combined, Colon and Garcia gave the Yankees 311 innings of sub-4 ERA pitching (3.99), far more than anyone expected they had left in their arms.
Whether in the majors or fantasy, both remain extremely risky. Colon had the better peripherals of the pair in 2011 (3.83 FIP vs. Garcia's 4.12) and has the easier park in 2012, but the last time he threw 100 innings before 2011 was 2005, and the A's offense won't make winning games easy. Garcia has an offense that'll net him more wins by remaining in New York, but Yankee Stadium is a rougher place to pitch given his occasional susceptibility to the long ball, and he's an injury risk himself.
Colon's 2012 projection: 6-9, 4.23 ERA, 112 2/3 IP, 80 K's
Garcia's 2012 projection: 9-8, 4.85 ERA, 128 IP, 75 K's
Prospects who may not have to wait.
Spoiler [+]
Colleague Keith Law released his top 100 prospects list today, and this includes a bunch of youngsters who won't reach the big leagues until late in 2014 or 2015.
But there will be some young players who will have an immediate impact this coming season -- some right away, some later in the year. Based on how spring training goes, every guy on this list at least has a chance to begin the year in the big leagues.
1. Matt Moore, P, Tampa Bay Rays
He figures to be a dangerous weapon in the Tampa Bay rotation, and there are plenty of New York Yankees and Texas Rangers who saw the left-hander late last season who will attest to Moore's extraordinary ability. He is the American League version of Stephen Strasburg. A lot of young starters are greatly limited by an innings count early in their careers, but remember -- Moore was drafted in 2007 and he threw 174.1 innings last season, between the minors (155) and majors (19.1), including the postseason. So the Rays will likely be OK with him throwing about 200 innings this year.
2. Jesus Montero, C-DH, Seattle Mariners
There will be lots of debate in spring training about whether Montero is ready to catch in the big leagues and whether his future is as an everyday catcher or DH. But he will hit, and he will hit somewhere in the middle of the Seattle lineup, which is why the Yankees have felt all along that there is less risk for the Mariners in the Michael Pineda trade than there is for the Yankees.
3. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds
Ramon Hernandez is gone, and now Mesoraco will ascend to the big leagues to at least share the catching duties with Ryan Hanigan, for a team that will contend for the National League Central title.
4. Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals
The more conservative faction in the Washington organization will want Harper to start 2012 in the minor leagues, while manager Davey Johnson will probably be the strongest advocate for opening the year with Harper as his everyday right fielder. Johnson said a few weeks ago that he thinks Harper can adjust to breaking balls and use the whole field, two prerequisites for a young player to advance to the big leagues. But regardless of whether Harper starts the year in Triple-A or in Washington, he's going to be in the big leagues sometime early in 2012.
5. Julio Teheran, P, Atlanta Braves
The only unknown about Teheran is how he'll get his chance, because the Braves have a lot of returning starting pitchers with Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Mike Minor. But the opportunity will be there at some point.
6. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Colorado thinks he's ready as a hitter and ready defensively, and now that Ian Stewart is gone and Casey Blake is serving as stand-in at third base, the future at the position belongs to Arenado.
7/8. Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer, pitchers, Arizona Diamondbacks
Part of the reason Arizona should be the favorite to win the NL West to open the year is the D-backs' remarkable depth, and Skaggs and Bauer are a part of that. Whether it's because of injury or because Skaggs and Bauer force their way to the majors, they will both be factors this year.
9. Jacob Turner, P, Detroit Tigers
Detroit talked about Turner as possible trade bait a little, but in the end, GM David Dombrowski clung to the right-hander, who figures to get a shot in the big leagues sometime this year. Remember -- the Tigers haven't filled the No. 5 spot in their rotation, and Turner impressed in his one start last year.
10. Drew Pomeranz, P, Rockies
He had a handful of starts in Double-A last year and dominated. His innings count will be closely monitored by the Rockies this year.
[h3]Potential trade targets[/h3]
Inspired by a conversation with colleague Jayson Stark, some guys who might be traded in spring training (or before):
John Lannan, Nationals: He's an extra guy now, and Washington already has talked with other teams about dealing him. Lannan is unfazed by the signing of Edwin Jackson, writes Adam Kilgore.
A.J. Burnett, Yankees: The Pittsburgh Pirates are among the teams taking a look at Burnett. The Yankees are prepared to eat a lot of the $35 million that's still owed to the right-hander.
Jeff Niemann, Rays: Tampa Bay isn't going to give him away, but at the same time, the Rays have six starters for five spots and Niemann is probably the most likely guy to move if they choose to make a deal.
Jake Westbrook, St. Louis Cardinals: Roy Oswalt wants to play with the Cardinals and they are interested, but Oswalt continues to look for more money. If St. Louis signs Oswalt, Westbrook would be the most likely guy to get bumped out of the rotation and into the bullpen. If Westbrook was devoted to the idea of continuing as a starter, he would have to waive his full no-trade clause.
There has been no progress between the Boston Red Sox and Oswalt, writes Scott Lauber.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Miami Marlins served as hosts for Yoenis Cespedes and are a natural fit for him, writes Greg Cote.
It's a heck of a gamble for the franchise. To put this into perspective for the Marlins: Before the offseason began, the only deal of more than $40 million made by the Marlins was with Hanley Ramirez. And this would be the third such deal for Miami in the last three months.
The Marlins say they're OK with the risks presented by Cespedes.
Cespedes is not worth the risk for the Tigers, writes Tony Paul.
• Sandy Alderson has been forced to remake the New York Mets on the cheap, as Andrew Keh writes.
It's sort of an existential question that nobody can know the answer to: Would Alderson have taken the job if he had known exactly just how deeply the Mets' cuts were going to go?
• Baltimore Orioles scouts have been banned from games in South Korea.
• A basketball owner is among the bidders for the Los Angeles Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Yankees added depth with Russell Branyan, a signing that has no bearing on whether they sign Raul Ibanez.
2. The Orioles signed Nick Johnson.
3. Zack Greinke likes it with the Milwaukee Brewers, says Doug Melvin.
4. The Reds announced the Ryan Ludwick signing.
5. The Houston Astros avoided arbitration with Jed Lowrie.
6. The Rangers are close to a two-year deal with Nelson Cruz, writes Evan Grant.
7. Elvis Andrus is super happy with his new three-year deal, writes Gerry Fraley.
8. Rafael Betancourt goes into spring training as the Rockies' closer, as Troy Renck writes.
9. Rich Harden had shoulder surgery.
10. The San Diego Padres signed Jeff Suppan.
11. The Mariners might not be as young as expected.
But there will be some young players who will have an immediate impact this coming season -- some right away, some later in the year. Based on how spring training goes, every guy on this list at least has a chance to begin the year in the big leagues.
1. Matt Moore, P, Tampa Bay Rays
He figures to be a dangerous weapon in the Tampa Bay rotation, and there are plenty of New York Yankees and Texas Rangers who saw the left-hander late last season who will attest to Moore's extraordinary ability. He is the American League version of Stephen Strasburg. A lot of young starters are greatly limited by an innings count early in their careers, but remember -- Moore was drafted in 2007 and he threw 174.1 innings last season, between the minors (155) and majors (19.1), including the postseason. So the Rays will likely be OK with him throwing about 200 innings this year.
2. Jesus Montero, C-DH, Seattle Mariners
There will be lots of debate in spring training about whether Montero is ready to catch in the big leagues and whether his future is as an everyday catcher or DH. But he will hit, and he will hit somewhere in the middle of the Seattle lineup, which is why the Yankees have felt all along that there is less risk for the Mariners in the Michael Pineda trade than there is for the Yankees.
3. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds
Ramon Hernandez is gone, and now Mesoraco will ascend to the big leagues to at least share the catching duties with Ryan Hanigan, for a team that will contend for the National League Central title.
4. Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals
The more conservative faction in the Washington organization will want Harper to start 2012 in the minor leagues, while manager Davey Johnson will probably be the strongest advocate for opening the year with Harper as his everyday right fielder. Johnson said a few weeks ago that he thinks Harper can adjust to breaking balls and use the whole field, two prerequisites for a young player to advance to the big leagues. But regardless of whether Harper starts the year in Triple-A or in Washington, he's going to be in the big leagues sometime early in 2012.
5. Julio Teheran, P, Atlanta Braves
The only unknown about Teheran is how he'll get his chance, because the Braves have a lot of returning starting pitchers with Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Mike Minor. But the opportunity will be there at some point.
6. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Colorado thinks he's ready as a hitter and ready defensively, and now that Ian Stewart is gone and Casey Blake is serving as stand-in at third base, the future at the position belongs to Arenado.
7/8. Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer, pitchers, Arizona Diamondbacks
Part of the reason Arizona should be the favorite to win the NL West to open the year is the D-backs' remarkable depth, and Skaggs and Bauer are a part of that. Whether it's because of injury or because Skaggs and Bauer force their way to the majors, they will both be factors this year.
9. Jacob Turner, P, Detroit Tigers
Detroit talked about Turner as possible trade bait a little, but in the end, GM David Dombrowski clung to the right-hander, who figures to get a shot in the big leagues sometime this year. Remember -- the Tigers haven't filled the No. 5 spot in their rotation, and Turner impressed in his one start last year.
10. Drew Pomeranz, P, Rockies
He had a handful of starts in Double-A last year and dominated. His innings count will be closely monitored by the Rockies this year.
[h3]Potential trade targets[/h3]
Inspired by a conversation with colleague Jayson Stark, some guys who might be traded in spring training (or before):
John Lannan, Nationals: He's an extra guy now, and Washington already has talked with other teams about dealing him. Lannan is unfazed by the signing of Edwin Jackson, writes Adam Kilgore.
A.J. Burnett, Yankees: The Pittsburgh Pirates are among the teams taking a look at Burnett. The Yankees are prepared to eat a lot of the $35 million that's still owed to the right-hander.
Jeff Niemann, Rays: Tampa Bay isn't going to give him away, but at the same time, the Rays have six starters for five spots and Niemann is probably the most likely guy to move if they choose to make a deal.
Jake Westbrook, St. Louis Cardinals: Roy Oswalt wants to play with the Cardinals and they are interested, but Oswalt continues to look for more money. If St. Louis signs Oswalt, Westbrook would be the most likely guy to get bumped out of the rotation and into the bullpen. If Westbrook was devoted to the idea of continuing as a starter, he would have to waive his full no-trade clause.
There has been no progress between the Boston Red Sox and Oswalt, writes Scott Lauber.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Miami Marlins served as hosts for Yoenis Cespedes and are a natural fit for him, writes Greg Cote.
It's a heck of a gamble for the franchise. To put this into perspective for the Marlins: Before the offseason began, the only deal of more than $40 million made by the Marlins was with Hanley Ramirez. And this would be the third such deal for Miami in the last three months.
The Marlins say they're OK with the risks presented by Cespedes.
Cespedes is not worth the risk for the Tigers, writes Tony Paul.
• Sandy Alderson has been forced to remake the New York Mets on the cheap, as Andrew Keh writes.
It's sort of an existential question that nobody can know the answer to: Would Alderson have taken the job if he had known exactly just how deeply the Mets' cuts were going to go?
• Baltimore Orioles scouts have been banned from games in South Korea.
• A basketball owner is among the bidders for the Los Angeles Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Yankees added depth with Russell Branyan, a signing that has no bearing on whether they sign Raul Ibanez.
2. The Orioles signed Nick Johnson.
3. Zack Greinke likes it with the Milwaukee Brewers, says Doug Melvin.
4. The Reds announced the Ryan Ludwick signing.
5. The Houston Astros avoided arbitration with Jed Lowrie.
6. The Rangers are close to a two-year deal with Nelson Cruz, writes Evan Grant.
7. Elvis Andrus is super happy with his new three-year deal, writes Gerry Fraley.
8. Rafael Betancourt goes into spring training as the Rockies' closer, as Troy Renck writes.
9. Rich Harden had shoulder surgery.
10. The San Diego Padres signed Jeff Suppan.
11. The Mariners might not be as young as expected.
Players who need to perform well.
Spoiler [+]
Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols are about to start the first season of their new massive contracts and they will presumably remain star-level players in 2012. Even if they struggled, however, they'd still have their names written into the lineup, because of how much has been invested in them by the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels, respectfully.
Other veterans, however, are close to the "or else" ledge -- that time when their employer must have production, or else change is imminent.
Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels: He had the lowest batting average of the 145 qualified players in the big leagues last year, hitting just .218, with a .248 on-base percentage. The Angels still have a staggering amount of money tied up with Wells, who will be paid $63 million over the next three seasons. But the fact that Jerry Dipoto was just hired as general manager will help to facilitate change, if needed, because the acquisition of Wells was not his idea. The Angels are loaded with alternatives, too. Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter will open the season in center field and right, respectively, and with Pujols slated to be the first baseman, the Angels also have Kendrys Morales, Bobby Abreu and Mark Trumbo as DH candidates -- with Mike Trout, Keith Law's No. 1 prospect, waiting for an opportunity.
The Angels will have a Plan B, a Plan C, etc., if needed
Other veterans, however, are close to the "or else" ledge -- that time when their employer must have production, or else change is imminent.
Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels: He had the lowest batting average of the 145 qualified players in the big leagues last year, hitting just .218, with a .248 on-base percentage. The Angels still have a staggering amount of money tied up with Wells, who will be paid $63 million over the next three seasons. But the fact that Jerry Dipoto was just hired as general manager will help to facilitate change, if needed, because the acquisition of Wells was not his idea. The Angels are loaded with alternatives, too. Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter will open the season in center field and right, respectively, and with Pujols slated to be the first baseman, the Angels also have Kendrys Morales, Bobby Abreu and Mark Trumbo as DH candidates -- with Mike Trout, Keith Law's No. 1 prospect, waiting for an opportunity.
The Angels will have a Plan B, a Plan C, etc., if needed
Projecting 2011's overachievers.
Prospects who may not have to wait.
Players who need to perform well.
Spoiler [+]
In some ways, a giant season from an unexpected source can be a double-edged sword. While getting a lot more out of a player than you expect going into a season is a great way to amass a bunch of juicy extra wins, predicting what comes next can be a maddening challenge. Whether you're a general manager of a major league team with a $100 million payroll or a general manager of a fantasy baseball team, setting expectations for players after an overachieving season can make or break you down the road.
Previously, we looked at the players who most underperformed their 2011 ZiPS projections last season to get a look at how they will do in 2012. Now we look at the flip side of the coin: the players who most exceeded their projections.
[h3]Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .685
Actual OPS: .895
More than any of the other hitters on this list, Avila's star season came truly out of nowhere. Between ZiPS and the fans surveyed by FanGraphs (.706 OPS), he was generally seen as a young catcher who could continue to fill the role adequately and was a quick learner with the glove. Instead of being merely adequate and accomplishing what Gerald Laird was supposed to in Detroit (and didn't), Avila put up a good season -- by Johnny Bench standards.
In Avila's favor, he just turned 25, so it's extremely unlikely to be a fluke of the Brady Anderson or Kevin Mitchell variety. However, there are solid reasons to expect a merely solid, rather than overwhelming, 2012 season from Avila. He's never done anything near this before, and his .366 batting average on balls in play in 2011 is a number that any player would have an impossible time maintaining. FanGraphs' xBABIP Calculator estimates likely BABIP from hit-ball data and sees Avila's 2011 as justifying only a .329 BABIP, which takes some of the air out of his numbers.
None of this should be taken as suggesting that Avila's a poor player or anything, but it's way too soon to take 2011 to be his expected baseline.
2012 projection: .254/.348/.420, 14 HR, 66 RBIs
[h3]Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .785
Actual OPS: .986
The question for Kemp isn't really whether he'll decline from his 2011 play, but just how far his numbers will drop. Kemp had a tremendous case for being the best player in baseball in 2011 (he was my pick in the ESPN MVP voting), enough for him to put up a 10 WAR season by Baseball Reference's reckoning. To put 10 WAR into respective, that's a Willie Mays peak year and the only 10-win season by any player since Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre in 2004.
It's hard to believe that a year ago Kemp and his agent, Dave Stewart, were fighting with the Dodgers, and Kemp was regularly rumored to be heading out of Los Angeles for pennies on the dollar.
A more normal season is probably in store for Kemp in 2012, but he's still likely to be a superstar, as he's shown he can stick in center field. While Kemp signed a huge contract extension with the Dodgers recently, he doesn't even have to touch 2011's numbers to be a good deal.
2012 projection: .280/.348/.503, 31 HR, 104 RBIs, 32 SB
[h3]Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .847
Actual OPS: 1.047
The trade that brought Vernon Wells to Anaheim and sent Napoli to the Rangers, already having been made fun of in the analytical community for months, looked even worse than anybody expected after 2011 was in the books. While Napoli didn't play a full slate of games, he made his 432 plate appearances count, terrorizing AL pitching to the tune of .320/.414/.631. As if to twist the knife even further, he hit .356/.433/.763 against his previous team.
Napoli's the oldest hitter on this list, having turned 31 in October, so it's very unlikely that he's going to hit like this again anytime soon. But there's one encouraging sign for him overall: He's made great strides with his defense behind the plate. Even if he regresses from his career-high 36 percent caught-stealing rate behind the plate (three years ago, it was as low as 17 percent), he's improved to the point that teams can't run wild on him. He also made very few mistakes behind the plate, committing just two errors and allowing one passed ball in 506 innings. Even with Napoli's bat regressing, his increased adequacy gives him a lot of value to the Rangers and fantasy players.
2012 projection: .272/.361/.538, 26 HR, 67 RBIs
[h3]Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .733
Actual OPS: .928
Thanks to the literally legendary collapse of the Red Sox in the final weeks of the season, Ellsbury's breakout 2011 will be one of the few things fans will look back on positively. Not only did Ellsbury come back well from a 2010 ruined by injury, but he hit 32 home runs, a number nobody saw coming.
Historically, when players have had these kinds of home run breakouts, their follow-up seasons have been a mixed bag. However, players have generally kept quite a bit of improvement from even the flukiest-looking home run totals. While Ellsbury might not hit 30 again, it's extremely likely he'll continue to hit more than the 10 he was hitting just a few years ago. ZiPS projects a decline to 16 home runs, but that's with only 560 projected plate appearances -- if Ellsbury gets 732 plate appearances, he should hit 20 again.
Another encouraging sign is the impressive uptick in his defensive statistics in center. While defensive numbers should be taken with a very large grain of salt in the short term, there's a lot more reason to like his defense than before.
2012 projection: .290/.345/.457, 16 HR, 62 RBIs, 40 SB
[h3]Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .886
Actual OPS: 1.056
The magnitude of Bautista's improvement from 2009 to 2010 is extremely rare in baseball history. He did it again in 2011, not only avoiding regression from his huge 2010 season but actually getting even better. At this time last year, the résumé of Jose Bautista the Superstar was a lot shorter than that of Jose Bautista the Fourth Outfielder. After a second amazing season in a more difficult offensive environment, there's less reason to be skeptical, and ZiPS projects Bautista to have the best OPS in baseball in 2012.
While Rogers Centre is a hitters' park, Bautista's power is such that he could probably hit 40 home runs playing in an airport hangar. ESPN's Home Run Tracker, developed by Greg Rybarczyk, keeps a list of "no doubt" home runs -- those homers that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed 50 feet past the fence. Bautista led baseball in 2011 with 18 of them, 50 percent more than any hitter not named Mike Stanton.
2012 projection: .273/.408/.566, 36 HR, 88 RBI
[h3]Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 6.14
Actual ERA: 2.71
If last year you found a betting outlet that allowed you to bet a dollar on the odds of Vogelsong finishing in the top five in ERA, you would now be living in a much fancier house and driving a much sexier car. As wrong as his ZiPS projection (and well, everyone's projection) turned out to be, Vogelsong's path from a shellacked Pirates flop to unimpressive NPB pitcher to NL All-Star is one of those stories that makes being a baseball fan great.
While his peripherals suggested he wasn't pitching at the level of a 2.71 ERA in 2011, even his FIP of 3.67 leaves him a solid starting pitcher. As great a story as he was, you'd be smart to hedge your bets, as Giants GM Brian Sabean did when signing him to a two-year, $8.3 million deal. Remember, improvement or not, Vogelsong's just a year removed from being a guy allowing six walks a game to Triple-A batters.
2012 projection: 8-10, 4.18 ERA, 153 IP, 119 K's
[h3]Philip Humber, Chicago White Sox[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 6.40
Actual ERA: 3.75
While Humber was a 2003 first-round pick, his status as a prospect had long since evaporated and it looked like Humber had become an organizational player, filling spots in the rotation of Triple-A teams. After being waived twice last winter, Humber landed a rotation spot in Chicago due to injuries and the team's desire to use Chris Sale as a reliever.
Thanks to his changeup, Humber went 8-5 with a 3.10 ERA before the All-Star break but came back to earth in the second half, going 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA in 10 starts.
Despite pitching well in the majors for three months, Humber's record suggests being very cautious about expectations going forward. After all, a pitcher with a 4.67 career ERA against Triple-A hitters isn't generally a great bet to succeed in the majors, and Humber's reliance on his changeup leaves him with a small margin of error. If someone in your fantasy league really wants to grab Humber in your draft this year, let 'em.
2012 projection: 7-8, 4.86 ERA, 140 2/3 IP, 89 K's
[h3]Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 4.64
Actual ERA: 2.83
Like Humber, Fister relies on a changeup, but Fister's change has been harder to hit, and his peripherals have improved (3.02 FIP last year) enough that Detroit's No. 2 starter is a much safer bet than he was a year ago.
Fister's always going to walk a thinner line of success than a power pitcher who strikes out batters with a 95 mph fastball, but he plays in a division where he won't face any scary offenses and will continue to be an above-average starter.
2012 projection: 12-9, 3.98 ERA, 181 1/2 IP, 105 K's
[h3]Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics, and Freddy Garcia, New York Yankees[/h3]
Colon's projected ERA: 5.63
Colon's actual ERA: 4.00
Garcia's projected ERA: 4.83
Garcia's actual ERA: 3.62
They play on different teams now, but Colon and Garcia shared the commonality of being way-past-prime, injury-prone former stars signed to minor league deals by the Yankees last year.
The Yankees ended up winning 97 games in 2011 but entered spring training with a mess of a rotation, consisting of CC Sabathia and a bunch of unknowns and risks. Combined, Colon and Garcia gave the Yankees 311 innings of sub-4 ERA pitching (3.99), far more than anyone expected they had left in their arms.
Whether in the majors or fantasy, both remain extremely risky. Colon had the better peripherals of the pair in 2011 (3.83 FIP vs. Garcia's 4.12) and has the easier park in 2012, but the last time he threw 100 innings before 2011 was 2005, and the A's offense won't make winning games easy. Garcia has an offense that'll net him more wins by remaining in New York, but Yankee Stadium is a rougher place to pitch given his occasional susceptibility to the long ball, and he's an injury risk himself.
Colon's 2012 projection: 6-9, 4.23 ERA, 112 2/3 IP, 80 K's
Garcia's 2012 projection: 9-8, 4.85 ERA, 128 IP, 75 K's
Previously, we looked at the players who most underperformed their 2011 ZiPS projections last season to get a look at how they will do in 2012. Now we look at the flip side of the coin: the players who most exceeded their projections.
[h3]Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .685
Actual OPS: .895
More than any of the other hitters on this list, Avila's star season came truly out of nowhere. Between ZiPS and the fans surveyed by FanGraphs (.706 OPS), he was generally seen as a young catcher who could continue to fill the role adequately and was a quick learner with the glove. Instead of being merely adequate and accomplishing what Gerald Laird was supposed to in Detroit (and didn't), Avila put up a good season -- by Johnny Bench standards.
In Avila's favor, he just turned 25, so it's extremely unlikely to be a fluke of the Brady Anderson or Kevin Mitchell variety. However, there are solid reasons to expect a merely solid, rather than overwhelming, 2012 season from Avila. He's never done anything near this before, and his .366 batting average on balls in play in 2011 is a number that any player would have an impossible time maintaining. FanGraphs' xBABIP Calculator estimates likely BABIP from hit-ball data and sees Avila's 2011 as justifying only a .329 BABIP, which takes some of the air out of his numbers.
None of this should be taken as suggesting that Avila's a poor player or anything, but it's way too soon to take 2011 to be his expected baseline.
2012 projection: .254/.348/.420, 14 HR, 66 RBIs
[h3]Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .785
Actual OPS: .986
The question for Kemp isn't really whether he'll decline from his 2011 play, but just how far his numbers will drop. Kemp had a tremendous case for being the best player in baseball in 2011 (he was my pick in the ESPN MVP voting), enough for him to put up a 10 WAR season by Baseball Reference's reckoning. To put 10 WAR into respective, that's a Willie Mays peak year and the only 10-win season by any player since Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre in 2004.
It's hard to believe that a year ago Kemp and his agent, Dave Stewart, were fighting with the Dodgers, and Kemp was regularly rumored to be heading out of Los Angeles for pennies on the dollar.
A more normal season is probably in store for Kemp in 2012, but he's still likely to be a superstar, as he's shown he can stick in center field. While Kemp signed a huge contract extension with the Dodgers recently, he doesn't even have to touch 2011's numbers to be a good deal.
2012 projection: .280/.348/.503, 31 HR, 104 RBIs, 32 SB
[h3]Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .847
Actual OPS: 1.047
The trade that brought Vernon Wells to Anaheim and sent Napoli to the Rangers, already having been made fun of in the analytical community for months, looked even worse than anybody expected after 2011 was in the books. While Napoli didn't play a full slate of games, he made his 432 plate appearances count, terrorizing AL pitching to the tune of .320/.414/.631. As if to twist the knife even further, he hit .356/.433/.763 against his previous team.
Napoli's the oldest hitter on this list, having turned 31 in October, so it's very unlikely that he's going to hit like this again anytime soon. But there's one encouraging sign for him overall: He's made great strides with his defense behind the plate. Even if he regresses from his career-high 36 percent caught-stealing rate behind the plate (three years ago, it was as low as 17 percent), he's improved to the point that teams can't run wild on him. He also made very few mistakes behind the plate, committing just two errors and allowing one passed ball in 506 innings. Even with Napoli's bat regressing, his increased adequacy gives him a lot of value to the Rangers and fantasy players.
2012 projection: .272/.361/.538, 26 HR, 67 RBIs
[h3]Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .733
Actual OPS: .928
Thanks to the literally legendary collapse of the Red Sox in the final weeks of the season, Ellsbury's breakout 2011 will be one of the few things fans will look back on positively. Not only did Ellsbury come back well from a 2010 ruined by injury, but he hit 32 home runs, a number nobody saw coming.
Historically, when players have had these kinds of home run breakouts, their follow-up seasons have been a mixed bag. However, players have generally kept quite a bit of improvement from even the flukiest-looking home run totals. While Ellsbury might not hit 30 again, it's extremely likely he'll continue to hit more than the 10 he was hitting just a few years ago. ZiPS projects a decline to 16 home runs, but that's with only 560 projected plate appearances -- if Ellsbury gets 732 plate appearances, he should hit 20 again.
Another encouraging sign is the impressive uptick in his defensive statistics in center. While defensive numbers should be taken with a very large grain of salt in the short term, there's a lot more reason to like his defense than before.
2012 projection: .290/.345/.457, 16 HR, 62 RBIs, 40 SB
[h3]Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
2011 Projected OPS: .886
Actual OPS: 1.056
The magnitude of Bautista's improvement from 2009 to 2010 is extremely rare in baseball history. He did it again in 2011, not only avoiding regression from his huge 2010 season but actually getting even better. At this time last year, the résumé of Jose Bautista the Superstar was a lot shorter than that of Jose Bautista the Fourth Outfielder. After a second amazing season in a more difficult offensive environment, there's less reason to be skeptical, and ZiPS projects Bautista to have the best OPS in baseball in 2012.
While Rogers Centre is a hitters' park, Bautista's power is such that he could probably hit 40 home runs playing in an airport hangar. ESPN's Home Run Tracker, developed by Greg Rybarczyk, keeps a list of "no doubt" home runs -- those homers that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed 50 feet past the fence. Bautista led baseball in 2011 with 18 of them, 50 percent more than any hitter not named Mike Stanton.
2012 projection: .273/.408/.566, 36 HR, 88 RBI
[h3]Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 6.14
Actual ERA: 2.71
If last year you found a betting outlet that allowed you to bet a dollar on the odds of Vogelsong finishing in the top five in ERA, you would now be living in a much fancier house and driving a much sexier car. As wrong as his ZiPS projection (and well, everyone's projection) turned out to be, Vogelsong's path from a shellacked Pirates flop to unimpressive NPB pitcher to NL All-Star is one of those stories that makes being a baseball fan great.
While his peripherals suggested he wasn't pitching at the level of a 2.71 ERA in 2011, even his FIP of 3.67 leaves him a solid starting pitcher. As great a story as he was, you'd be smart to hedge your bets, as Giants GM Brian Sabean did when signing him to a two-year, $8.3 million deal. Remember, improvement or not, Vogelsong's just a year removed from being a guy allowing six walks a game to Triple-A batters.
2012 projection: 8-10, 4.18 ERA, 153 IP, 119 K's
[h3]Philip Humber, Chicago White Sox[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 6.40
Actual ERA: 3.75
While Humber was a 2003 first-round pick, his status as a prospect had long since evaporated and it looked like Humber had become an organizational player, filling spots in the rotation of Triple-A teams. After being waived twice last winter, Humber landed a rotation spot in Chicago due to injuries and the team's desire to use Chris Sale as a reliever.
Thanks to his changeup, Humber went 8-5 with a 3.10 ERA before the All-Star break but came back to earth in the second half, going 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA in 10 starts.
Despite pitching well in the majors for three months, Humber's record suggests being very cautious about expectations going forward. After all, a pitcher with a 4.67 career ERA against Triple-A hitters isn't generally a great bet to succeed in the majors, and Humber's reliance on his changeup leaves him with a small margin of error. If someone in your fantasy league really wants to grab Humber in your draft this year, let 'em.
2012 projection: 7-8, 4.86 ERA, 140 2/3 IP, 89 K's
[h3]Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers[/h3]
2011 Projected ERA: 4.64
Actual ERA: 2.83
Like Humber, Fister relies on a changeup, but Fister's change has been harder to hit, and his peripherals have improved (3.02 FIP last year) enough that Detroit's No. 2 starter is a much safer bet than he was a year ago.
Fister's always going to walk a thinner line of success than a power pitcher who strikes out batters with a 95 mph fastball, but he plays in a division where he won't face any scary offenses and will continue to be an above-average starter.
2012 projection: 12-9, 3.98 ERA, 181 1/2 IP, 105 K's
[h3]Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics, and Freddy Garcia, New York Yankees[/h3]
Colon's projected ERA: 5.63
Colon's actual ERA: 4.00
Garcia's projected ERA: 4.83
Garcia's actual ERA: 3.62
They play on different teams now, but Colon and Garcia shared the commonality of being way-past-prime, injury-prone former stars signed to minor league deals by the Yankees last year.
The Yankees ended up winning 97 games in 2011 but entered spring training with a mess of a rotation, consisting of CC Sabathia and a bunch of unknowns and risks. Combined, Colon and Garcia gave the Yankees 311 innings of sub-4 ERA pitching (3.99), far more than anyone expected they had left in their arms.
Whether in the majors or fantasy, both remain extremely risky. Colon had the better peripherals of the pair in 2011 (3.83 FIP vs. Garcia's 4.12) and has the easier park in 2012, but the last time he threw 100 innings before 2011 was 2005, and the A's offense won't make winning games easy. Garcia has an offense that'll net him more wins by remaining in New York, but Yankee Stadium is a rougher place to pitch given his occasional susceptibility to the long ball, and he's an injury risk himself.
Colon's 2012 projection: 6-9, 4.23 ERA, 112 2/3 IP, 80 K's
Garcia's 2012 projection: 9-8, 4.85 ERA, 128 IP, 75 K's
Prospects who may not have to wait.
Spoiler [+]
Colleague Keith Law released his top 100 prospects list today, and this includes a bunch of youngsters who won't reach the big leagues until late in 2014 or 2015.
But there will be some young players who will have an immediate impact this coming season -- some right away, some later in the year. Based on how spring training goes, every guy on this list at least has a chance to begin the year in the big leagues.
1. Matt Moore, P, Tampa Bay Rays
He figures to be a dangerous weapon in the Tampa Bay rotation, and there are plenty of New York Yankees and Texas Rangers who saw the left-hander late last season who will attest to Moore's extraordinary ability. He is the American League version of Stephen Strasburg. A lot of young starters are greatly limited by an innings count early in their careers, but remember -- Moore was drafted in 2007 and he threw 174.1 innings last season, between the minors (155) and majors (19.1), including the postseason. So the Rays will likely be OK with him throwing about 200 innings this year.
2. Jesus Montero, C-DH, Seattle Mariners
There will be lots of debate in spring training about whether Montero is ready to catch in the big leagues and whether his future is as an everyday catcher or DH. But he will hit, and he will hit somewhere in the middle of the Seattle lineup, which is why the Yankees have felt all along that there is less risk for the Mariners in the Michael Pineda trade than there is for the Yankees.
3. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds
Ramon Hernandez is gone, and now Mesoraco will ascend to the big leagues to at least share the catching duties with Ryan Hanigan, for a team that will contend for the National League Central title.
4. Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals
The more conservative faction in the Washington organization will want Harper to start 2012 in the minor leagues, while manager Davey Johnson will probably be the strongest advocate for opening the year with Harper as his everyday right fielder. Johnson said a few weeks ago that he thinks Harper can adjust to breaking balls and use the whole field, two prerequisites for a young player to advance to the big leagues. But regardless of whether Harper starts the year in Triple-A or in Washington, he's going to be in the big leagues sometime early in 2012.
5. Julio Teheran, P, Atlanta Braves
The only unknown about Teheran is how he'll get his chance, because the Braves have a lot of returning starting pitchers with Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Mike Minor. But the opportunity will be there at some point.
6. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Colorado thinks he's ready as a hitter and ready defensively, and now that Ian Stewart is gone and Casey Blake is serving as stand-in at third base, the future at the position belongs to Arenado.
7/8. Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer, pitchers, Arizona Diamondbacks
Part of the reason Arizona should be the favorite to win the NL West to open the year is the D-backs' remarkable depth, and Skaggs and Bauer are a part of that. Whether it's because of injury or because Skaggs and Bauer force their way to the majors, they will both be factors this year.
9. Jacob Turner, P, Detroit Tigers
Detroit talked about Turner as possible trade bait a little, but in the end, GM David Dombrowski clung to the right-hander, who figures to get a shot in the big leagues sometime this year. Remember -- the Tigers haven't filled the No. 5 spot in their rotation, and Turner impressed in his one start last year.
10. Drew Pomeranz, P, Rockies
He had a handful of starts in Double-A last year and dominated. His innings count will be closely monitored by the Rockies this year.
[h3]Potential trade targets[/h3]
Inspired by a conversation with colleague Jayson Stark, some guys who might be traded in spring training (or before):
John Lannan, Nationals: He's an extra guy now, and Washington already has talked with other teams about dealing him. Lannan is unfazed by the signing of Edwin Jackson, writes Adam Kilgore.
A.J. Burnett, Yankees: The Pittsburgh Pirates are among the teams taking a look at Burnett. The Yankees are prepared to eat a lot of the $35 million that's still owed to the right-hander.
Jeff Niemann, Rays: Tampa Bay isn't going to give him away, but at the same time, the Rays have six starters for five spots and Niemann is probably the most likely guy to move if they choose to make a deal.
Jake Westbrook, St. Louis Cardinals: Roy Oswalt wants to play with the Cardinals and they are interested, but Oswalt continues to look for more money. If St. Louis signs Oswalt, Westbrook would be the most likely guy to get bumped out of the rotation and into the bullpen. If Westbrook was devoted to the idea of continuing as a starter, he would have to waive his full no-trade clause.
There has been no progress between the Boston Red Sox and Oswalt, writes Scott Lauber.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Miami Marlins served as hosts for Yoenis Cespedes and are a natural fit for him, writes Greg Cote.
It's a heck of a gamble for the franchise. To put this into perspective for the Marlins: Before the offseason began, the only deal of more than $40 million made by the Marlins was with Hanley Ramirez. And this would be the third such deal for Miami in the last three months.
The Marlins say they're OK with the risks presented by Cespedes.
Cespedes is not worth the risk for the Tigers, writes Tony Paul.
• Sandy Alderson has been forced to remake the New York Mets on the cheap, as Andrew Keh writes.
It's sort of an existential question that nobody can know the answer to: Would Alderson have taken the job if he had known exactly just how deeply the Mets' cuts were going to go?
• Baltimore Orioles scouts have been banned from games in South Korea.
• A basketball owner is among the bidders for the Los Angeles Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Yankees added depth with Russell Branyan, a signing that has no bearing on whether they sign Raul Ibanez.
2. The Orioles signed Nick Johnson.
3. Zack Greinke likes it with the Milwaukee Brewers, says Doug Melvin.
4. The Reds announced the Ryan Ludwick signing.
5. The Houston Astros avoided arbitration with Jed Lowrie.
6. The Rangers are close to a two-year deal with Nelson Cruz, writes Evan Grant.
7. Elvis Andrus is super happy with his new three-year deal, writes Gerry Fraley.
8. Rafael Betancourt goes into spring training as the Rockies' closer, as Troy Renck writes.
9. Rich Harden had shoulder surgery.
10. The San Diego Padres signed Jeff Suppan.
11. The Mariners might not be as young as expected.
But there will be some young players who will have an immediate impact this coming season -- some right away, some later in the year. Based on how spring training goes, every guy on this list at least has a chance to begin the year in the big leagues.
1. Matt Moore, P, Tampa Bay Rays
He figures to be a dangerous weapon in the Tampa Bay rotation, and there are plenty of New York Yankees and Texas Rangers who saw the left-hander late last season who will attest to Moore's extraordinary ability. He is the American League version of Stephen Strasburg. A lot of young starters are greatly limited by an innings count early in their careers, but remember -- Moore was drafted in 2007 and he threw 174.1 innings last season, between the minors (155) and majors (19.1), including the postseason. So the Rays will likely be OK with him throwing about 200 innings this year.
2. Jesus Montero, C-DH, Seattle Mariners
There will be lots of debate in spring training about whether Montero is ready to catch in the big leagues and whether his future is as an everyday catcher or DH. But he will hit, and he will hit somewhere in the middle of the Seattle lineup, which is why the Yankees have felt all along that there is less risk for the Mariners in the Michael Pineda trade than there is for the Yankees.
3. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds
Ramon Hernandez is gone, and now Mesoraco will ascend to the big leagues to at least share the catching duties with Ryan Hanigan, for a team that will contend for the National League Central title.
4. Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals
The more conservative faction in the Washington organization will want Harper to start 2012 in the minor leagues, while manager Davey Johnson will probably be the strongest advocate for opening the year with Harper as his everyday right fielder. Johnson said a few weeks ago that he thinks Harper can adjust to breaking balls and use the whole field, two prerequisites for a young player to advance to the big leagues. But regardless of whether Harper starts the year in Triple-A or in Washington, he's going to be in the big leagues sometime early in 2012.
5. Julio Teheran, P, Atlanta Braves
The only unknown about Teheran is how he'll get his chance, because the Braves have a lot of returning starting pitchers with Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Mike Minor. But the opportunity will be there at some point.
6. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Colorado thinks he's ready as a hitter and ready defensively, and now that Ian Stewart is gone and Casey Blake is serving as stand-in at third base, the future at the position belongs to Arenado.
7/8. Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer, pitchers, Arizona Diamondbacks
Part of the reason Arizona should be the favorite to win the NL West to open the year is the D-backs' remarkable depth, and Skaggs and Bauer are a part of that. Whether it's because of injury or because Skaggs and Bauer force their way to the majors, they will both be factors this year.
9. Jacob Turner, P, Detroit Tigers
Detroit talked about Turner as possible trade bait a little, but in the end, GM David Dombrowski clung to the right-hander, who figures to get a shot in the big leagues sometime this year. Remember -- the Tigers haven't filled the No. 5 spot in their rotation, and Turner impressed in his one start last year.
10. Drew Pomeranz, P, Rockies
He had a handful of starts in Double-A last year and dominated. His innings count will be closely monitored by the Rockies this year.
[h3]Potential trade targets[/h3]
Inspired by a conversation with colleague Jayson Stark, some guys who might be traded in spring training (or before):
John Lannan, Nationals: He's an extra guy now, and Washington already has talked with other teams about dealing him. Lannan is unfazed by the signing of Edwin Jackson, writes Adam Kilgore.
A.J. Burnett, Yankees: The Pittsburgh Pirates are among the teams taking a look at Burnett. The Yankees are prepared to eat a lot of the $35 million that's still owed to the right-hander.
Jeff Niemann, Rays: Tampa Bay isn't going to give him away, but at the same time, the Rays have six starters for five spots and Niemann is probably the most likely guy to move if they choose to make a deal.
Jake Westbrook, St. Louis Cardinals: Roy Oswalt wants to play with the Cardinals and they are interested, but Oswalt continues to look for more money. If St. Louis signs Oswalt, Westbrook would be the most likely guy to get bumped out of the rotation and into the bullpen. If Westbrook was devoted to the idea of continuing as a starter, he would have to waive his full no-trade clause.
There has been no progress between the Boston Red Sox and Oswalt, writes Scott Lauber.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Miami Marlins served as hosts for Yoenis Cespedes and are a natural fit for him, writes Greg Cote.
It's a heck of a gamble for the franchise. To put this into perspective for the Marlins: Before the offseason began, the only deal of more than $40 million made by the Marlins was with Hanley Ramirez. And this would be the third such deal for Miami in the last three months.
The Marlins say they're OK with the risks presented by Cespedes.
Cespedes is not worth the risk for the Tigers, writes Tony Paul.
• Sandy Alderson has been forced to remake the New York Mets on the cheap, as Andrew Keh writes.
It's sort of an existential question that nobody can know the answer to: Would Alderson have taken the job if he had known exactly just how deeply the Mets' cuts were going to go?
• Baltimore Orioles scouts have been banned from games in South Korea.
• A basketball owner is among the bidders for the Los Angeles Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Yankees added depth with Russell Branyan, a signing that has no bearing on whether they sign Raul Ibanez.
2. The Orioles signed Nick Johnson.
3. Zack Greinke likes it with the Milwaukee Brewers, says Doug Melvin.
4. The Reds announced the Ryan Ludwick signing.
5. The Houston Astros avoided arbitration with Jed Lowrie.
6. The Rangers are close to a two-year deal with Nelson Cruz, writes Evan Grant.
7. Elvis Andrus is super happy with his new three-year deal, writes Gerry Fraley.
8. Rafael Betancourt goes into spring training as the Rockies' closer, as Troy Renck writes.
9. Rich Harden had shoulder surgery.
10. The San Diego Padres signed Jeff Suppan.
11. The Mariners might not be as young as expected.
Players who need to perform well.
Spoiler [+]
Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols are about to start the first season of their new massive contracts and they will presumably remain star-level players in 2012. Even if they struggled, however, they'd still have their names written into the lineup, because of how much has been invested in them by the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels, respectfully.
Other veterans, however, are close to the "or else" ledge -- that time when their employer must have production, or else change is imminent.
Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels: He had the lowest batting average of the 145 qualified players in the big leagues last year, hitting just .218, with a .248 on-base percentage. The Angels still have a staggering amount of money tied up with Wells, who will be paid $63 million over the next three seasons. But the fact that Jerry Dipoto was just hired as general manager will help to facilitate change, if needed, because the acquisition of Wells was not his idea. The Angels are loaded with alternatives, too. Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter will open the season in center field and right, respectively, and with Pujols slated to be the first baseman, the Angels also have Kendrys Morales, Bobby Abreu and Mark Trumbo as DH candidates -- with Mike Trout, Keith Law's No. 1 prospect, waiting for an opportunity.
The Angels will have a Plan B, a Plan C, etc., if needed
Other veterans, however, are close to the "or else" ledge -- that time when their employer must have production, or else change is imminent.
Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels: He had the lowest batting average of the 145 qualified players in the big leagues last year, hitting just .218, with a .248 on-base percentage. The Angels still have a staggering amount of money tied up with Wells, who will be paid $63 million over the next three seasons. But the fact that Jerry Dipoto was just hired as general manager will help to facilitate change, if needed, because the acquisition of Wells was not his idea. The Angels are loaded with alternatives, too. Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter will open the season in center field and right, respectively, and with Pujols slated to be the first baseman, the Angels also have Kendrys Morales, Bobby Abreu and Mark Trumbo as DH candidates -- with Mike Trout, Keith Law's No. 1 prospect, waiting for an opportunity.
The Angels will have a Plan B, a Plan C, etc., if needed
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- 25,730
- 2,900
so the A's cant go out and get talent because they are a "joke" ?
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- 25,730
- 2,900
so the A's cant go out and get talent because they are a "joke" ?
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- 6,589
- 2,136
Spending $36 mil on a 26 yr old who has never played in the majors is obviously a risk but Caspedes has a lot of upside. The A's will not be able to bring in any FA hitters in that ball park. I don't agree with everything Beane has done and I have been a big critic of him in the past but I like this move. We are trying to have a solid staff in place for the new stadium and then we can spend the money to sign more bats. We have plenty of money to spend also, Coco was our highest paid player before this.
And if he ends up to be a bust, so be it. $36 mil for 4 years isn't that bad for a guy with his upside. It's not like we're dropping a $100 mil over 7 years.
And if he ends up to be a bust, so be it. $36 mil for 4 years isn't that bad for a guy with his upside. It's not like we're dropping a $100 mil over 7 years.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- 6,589
- 2,136
Spending $36 mil on a 26 yr old who has never played in the majors is obviously a risk but Caspedes has a lot of upside. The A's will not be able to bring in any FA hitters in that ball park. I don't agree with everything Beane has done and I have been a big critic of him in the past but I like this move. We are trying to have a solid staff in place for the new stadium and then we can spend the money to sign more bats. We have plenty of money to spend also, Coco was our highest paid player before this.
And if he ends up to be a bust, so be it. $36 mil for 4 years isn't that bad for a guy with his upside. It's not like we're dropping a $100 mil over 7 years.
And if he ends up to be a bust, so be it. $36 mil for 4 years isn't that bad for a guy with his upside. It's not like we're dropping a $100 mil over 7 years.
- 20,619
- 1,615
I'm looking to join a serious fantasy baseball league, preferably for money, if anyone has a league, PM me
- 20,619
- 1,615
I'm looking to join a serious fantasy baseball league, preferably for money, if anyone has a league, PM me
- 28,102
- 9,242
Looks like I am not the only one questioning the signing.
Ken Rosenthal just wrote an article entitled "Cespedes deal with A's a head-scratcher"
From the article:
Ken Rosenthal just wrote an article entitled "Cespedes deal with A's a head-scratcher"
From the article:
- 28,102
- 9,242
Looks like I am not the only one questioning the signing.
Ken Rosenthal just wrote an article entitled "Cespedes deal with A's a head-scratcher"
From the article:
Ken Rosenthal just wrote an article entitled "Cespedes deal with A's a head-scratcher"
From the article:
- 10,371
- 653
You're so smart.
- 10,371
- 653
You're so smart.
- 1,768
- 11
Wow, that is an extremely short sighted view by Rosenthal. Too bad too cuz usually he's a decent writer.
The logic is that attendance is usually a year slow on catching up with performance. That is to say attendance doesn't go up until a year after the team is good. Hence, the team wants to go into their projected new stadium already contending, not start contending the first year they enter. That's why a ton of their prospects are going to be ready this year and next year. So that they enter contending.
In terms of resigning him, the owner Wolff has already stated that he would significantly bump up the Payroll when the new stadium is ready, just like the Marlins this year. So, if Cespedes is worth resigning, he'll throw down the money. If Cespedes leaves, the allure of a new stadium, a contending team, and cash, will be enough to bring in other FA's.
The logic is that attendance is usually a year slow on catching up with performance. That is to say attendance doesn't go up until a year after the team is good. Hence, the team wants to go into their projected new stadium already contending, not start contending the first year they enter. That's why a ton of their prospects are going to be ready this year and next year. So that they enter contending.
In terms of resigning him, the owner Wolff has already stated that he would significantly bump up the Payroll when the new stadium is ready, just like the Marlins this year. So, if Cespedes is worth resigning, he'll throw down the money. If Cespedes leaves, the allure of a new stadium, a contending team, and cash, will be enough to bring in other FA's.
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