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O's gonna have some potent bats in their lineup...
Fowler
Machado
Jones
Davis
Trumbo
Wieters
Schoop
Kim
Hardy
Fowler
Machado
Jones
Davis
Trumbo
Wieters
Schoop
Kim
Hardy
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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I still know I can play pro ball. The Gwinnett Braves need to sign me.
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Lots of HR's. Should be a fun team to watch, offensively.
Saw someone mowing their lawns today, bros and I could smell the freshly cut grass as I drove by....It's time!
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More teams trying to weed stubhub out of the picture
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Stubhub went from the Buyer paying fees, to Seller paying fees, now back to buyer paying fees last I checked
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When is the last time the Orioles had a superstar pitcher? Mussina?
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It effectively kills the resell market which is huge in baseball... And they've been quoted that part of the decision is so the "lower class" doesn't have access to better seating... ******* scumbags
...
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Why am I getting ESPN app alerts at 11:30PM last night letting me know Cliff Lee's agent doesn't anticipate him pitching at this point 
he hasn't since 2014.
Yeah this whole situation has't been a good look for the Yanks at all. My thing is, why should the Yankees care what price the ticket is sold for on Stubhub - they already have face value $ from the seller of the ticket who originally purchased it from them direct.
he hasn't since 2014.
It effectively kills the resell market which is huge in baseball... And they've been quoted that part of the decision is so the "lower class" doesn't have access to better seating... ******* scumbags
Yeah this whole situation has't been a good look for the Yanks at all. My thing is, why should the Yankees care what price the ticket is sold for on Stubhub - they already have face value $ from the seller of the ticket who originally purchased it from them direct.
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Arrieta... jk.
Probably Moose. It's funny/sad how they can't develop any starting pitchers (hopefully Gausman breaks that streak), but have had some real good middle relievers and closers over the years.
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Francesa said its cause season tickets are down and they're afraid people will stop buying legend seats season tickets since the product on the field is subpar and they can buy last minute tickets cheaperWhy am I getting ESPN app alerts at 11:30PM last night letting me know Cliff Lee's agent doesn't anticipate him pitching at this point
It effectively kills the resell market which is huge in baseball... And they've been quoted that part of the decision is so the "lower class" doesn't have access to better seating... ******* scumbags
Yeah this whole situation has't been a good look for the Yanks at all. My thing is, why should the Yankees care what price the ticket is sold for on Stubhub - they already have face value $ from the seller of the ticket who originally purchased it from them direct.
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**** the Yankees
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It effectively kills the resell market which is huge in baseball... And they've been quoted that part of the decision is so the "lower class" doesn't have access to better seating... ******* scumbags
Ahh ok I see the angle now. Thanks
And that's kinda messed up
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here's some swing pron to get everyone wet for the season
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Vernon Wells was on that list for the longest time, man. (Worst contracts)
so glad there ain't any Jays on there.... for the moment.
so glad there ain't any Jays on there.... for the moment.
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I'd give Butista 2/60 and tell him take it or leave it.
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is the 5/150 demands real ? the guy is 35 and cant play D like he could before. if they give him anything more than 3/70 i would be pretty surpriseduntil you guys give Bautista 5/$175M
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as much as I love the guy, and right now he's the king of Toronto.... everyone knows that ain't happening.until you guys give Bautista 5/$175M
At least I got to witness the batflip.
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2/$50-60M is fair for Joey Bats.
Teix said he wants to play till he's 40. Love the guy but if we give him a 4 year extension...
Teix said he wants to play till he's 40. Love the guy but if we give him a 4 year extension...
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2/$50-60M is fair for Joey Bats.
Teix said he wants to play till he's 40. Love the guy but if we give him a 4 year extension...
Nooo thank you. I wouldn't worry though. 1B is Bird's for the taking in 2017 and beyond.
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Just copped MLB.tv!
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If you ask
Correa tops list of MLB's best assets (most team-friendly contracts)
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Best assets in baseball (3:31)
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5:10 PM ET
Dan Szymborski
Special to ESPN.com
One of the inescapable truths of baseball, like other major sports, is that a player's salary and contract situation are key components of a player's value to a franchise. Even in a sport without a hard salary cap, franchises face their own payroll constraints, though this obviously varies from team to team. To put together an 88-win team, a franchise needs to cobble together roughly 40 wins above replacement from their major league roster. If a team tried to assemble a roster solely from free agency, baseball's retail market for talent, you'd expect them to have to shell out something in the range of a $260 million payroll. And that's assuming all that talent is actually available in free agency -- the yearly free-agent market is frequently thin at multiple positions -- and, of course, players must actually agree to sign with them.
The best way to win championships, obviously, is to have a good team, but it's hard to put together a good team without a number of good contracts. Could Kansas City have put together their World Series championship without having Lorenzo Cain for $2.7 million, Salvador Perez at $1.8 million and Mike Moustakas at $2.6 million (among other reasonably priced players)?
EDITOR'S PICKS
Szymborski: MLB's biggest albatrosses
Dan Szymborski lays out the 25 worst contracts in baseball looking forward -- Albert Pujols and Matt Kemp are among the many big names on the list -- and examines what has gone wrong with each.
You hear a lot of talk about market inefficiencies in baseball -- that's the basis for the Moneyball concept -- but most inefficiencies tend to be self-correcting. At one time, on-base percentage wasn't highly valued in baseball, enabling a few teams to take advantage of that. But then the rest of the league caught on. There's a lot of chatter now about the importance of prospects and farm systems because that's a built-in inefficiency that is the product of the collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the players' association; young players pre-free agency are the lifeblood of well-run franchises, simply because of the bang for the buck they provide.
So who are the most valuable assets in baseball, the players that if traded today, could go a long way to refilling a franchise's farm system by themselves? To answer this question, I started out with the ZiPS projections and calculated the difference between the projected long-term performance of every player in baseball, and how much a team is projected to pay for that performance, whether from a signed contract or from predicting arbitration-year salaries. That difference, which I call surplus value, is expressed in wins rather than dollars; raw dollars can be misleading given that a dollar committed for 2030 (see: Chris Davis contract breakdown) and a dollar committed for 2016 are two very different things.
As I noted when laying out MLB's top 25 albatrosses earlier this week, a computer is very good at sifting through large data sets, but can't know everything about a particular team's situation or how a player is perceived around the league, things that affect a player's ultimate value. So this list isn't ordered simply be computer readout. There's some personal judgment blended in here as well, which I note in each player's write-up.
With that, let's get to Major League Baseball's 25 best assets.
Carlos Correa1. Carlos Correa, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +26.2 wins
This 2015 American League Rookie of the Year posted a .279/.345/.512 line after his midseason call-up while playing solid defense at a key defensive position, and he wasn't even the legal drinking age until September. Impressive, but what makes him No. 1? Because the Houston Astros control Correa for the next six seasons.
The truly scary thing for the rest of the league is that, given his age and how quickly he advanced through the minors, he could actually improve. ZiPS projects Correa to be a 6-7 WAR player in his prime, and he's years away from the Astros having to pay him anything close to what that level of performance merits. Correa is the most exciting young shortstop in baseball since Alex Rodriguez, who, as you might remember, turned out to be a pretty decent player. The sooner the Astros make him filthy rich and lock him up long term, the better it is for the franchise. On a related note, anyone still wish the Astros had signed a bunch of mediocre free agents and tried to win 75 games in 2011 rather than finishing with the worst record in baseball, earning them the first pick in the 2012 draft? That's what I thought.
Mike Trout2. Mike Trout, CF
6 years, $144.5 million (2015-20)
Guaranteed left: $134.25M
Surplus value: +24.2 wins
It's almost shocking that in a list of good players, Trout for once doesn't show up in the No. 1 spot, isn't it? It's not that he's not the best player in baseball -- he is -- but simply the reality that the years in which he is the best bargain are already in the rear window. He's still an excellent value, though, even with a contract that will eventually pay him more than $30 million a year, considering he's a player that if he were hit by a bus tomorrow, his first four full seasons have been of the quality that the Hall of Fame ought to waive the 10-year requirement, what is known as the Addie Joss exception.
The fact that Trout has only a single MVP so far is a robbery on the level of the 1970s Lufthansa heist. Trout is the all-time leader among MLB position players in wins above replacement through age 23, and the remainder of the top 10 are Hall of Fame-worthy (though No. 7, Alex Rodriguez, could have issues for obvious non-performance reasons). In fact, Trout could take three years of vacation and still rank 26th all time in WAR through age 26, right between Lou Gehrig and Cal Ripken.
Kris Bryant3. Kris Bryant, 3B
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +23.5 wins
Coming into the 2015 season, ZiPS gave Bryant a 4.3 WAR projection, the best projection the computer has given a rookie since its debut season in 2004. Bryant was even better than that, putting up 5.9 WAR and winning the National League Rookie of the Year award. There was a bit of controversy at the start of the year based on the Cubs starting Bryant in the minors so they could get an extra year of his services before free agency, and it's hard to argue that it didn't pay off, as they now get him for seven years rather than six. Bryant doesn't have the same massive upside that Correa has, so the Cubs will just have to settle for him being the best third baseman for the next decade or so.
Francisco Lindor4. Francisco Lindor, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +19.4 wins
Coming into the 2015 season, the questions about Lindor revolved around how much his offense would develop. Those questions were answered in 2015 in convincing fashion; Lindor hit .313/.353/.482 after his June call-up and finished just behind Correa in the AL ROY voting.
While Lindor is not likely to hit for the same amount of power as Correa, he's the better defensive shortstop, having already statistically confirmed the brilliant defensive ability that scouts saw in the minors. ZiPS sees Lindor hitting 20 homers per year in his prime, and he's an early favorite to be discussed in Cooperstown talk 20 years from now. And like Correa and Bryant, the Indians have him for at least six more seasons.
Mookie Betts5. Mookie Betts, OF
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2020 season
Surplus value: +19.0 wins
The Red Sox as a franchise have had more than their share of disappointments over the past few seasons, but one thing Boston can't be faulted for is how well it has Betts. A fifth-round pick who was a great deal less heralded initially than the players above him on this list, Betts struggled defensively at second base, and rather than focus on what he couldn't do, the Red Sox gave him the opportunity to play center field, which turned out to be a much better fit.
A long-time ZiPS favorite -- his No. 26 prospect ranking in 2014 was significantly higher than the scouting consensus -- all Betts did in the minors was hit. This continued in the majors, and now Betts, who turned 23 just after the 2015 season, has hit .291/.348/.471 with a 120 OPS+ in the majors in 867 plate appearances to go along with a solid glove in the outfield. If Trout is this generation's Willie Mays, Betts has to "settle" for being Duke Snider.
Corey Seager6. Corey Seager, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +22.8 wins
ZiPS is even more enthusiastic about Seager than I am, but I think it's fair to knock him down a few places, as the computer may be overrating his chances of staying at shortstop in the long term.
No, Seager isn't going to maintain his current .337 career batting average in the majors, but his .293/.344/.487 line at two levels in minors -- these days, Dodgers prospects don't have crazy Albuquerque-pumped numbers like in the days of Billy Ashley and Greg Brock -- suggests a bright future. And if he does stay at shortstop, his value just gets that much higher.
Bryce Harper7. Bryce Harper, OF
2-year deal, then arbitration
Free agent after 2018 season
Surplus value: +14.9 wins
I think it's appropriate to place Harper higher than a straight surplus value would rank him simply because he's the type of player that teams would in fact aggressively pay for, given the opportunity. Sure, he has only three seasons until free agency, and sure, his salary will increase quickly as he goes through arbitration, but where else are you going to get a player who just had a season in which he hit like Ted Williams in his age-22 season? I'm not even joking, Harper's 195 OPS+ in 2015 is right in the neighborhood of Williams' 190 OPS+ for his career, and, umm, Ted Williams was pretty good. Even with some amount of regression toward the mean, which you usually see after a huge breakout year, Harper is easily an elite player and a franchise-maker.
Manny Machado8. Manny Machado, 3B
1-year deal, then arbitration
Free agent after 2018 season
Surplus value: +13.7 wins
Harper, Machado and Jose Fernandez are set to hit free agency after the 2018 season. Now that's a pretty good free-agent class. Machado finally had his breakthrough offensive season, putting up a 131 OPS+ at age 22 and playing his usual Gold Glove defense at third.
The trade value here is more theoretical than most; if the Orioles have a bad season this year or next and aren't going to spend upward of $200 million to retain Machado long term, they have to start thinking about trading him. A Machado trade could single-handedly stock the farm system, though I'm from Baltimore and still would want to roll into a ball and cry. Hey, I'm still not over the loss of Mike Mussina.
Anthony Rizzo9. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
7 years, $41 million (2013-19)
Guaranteed left: $32 million
Surplus value: +18.8 wins
GMs, don't let your babies grow up to be free agents. The benefits of keeping your best players past their arbitration years far outweigh the risk you take by guaranteeing them money rather than giving them $500,000 a year and hope arbitration isn't too nasty. The contract details above don't even reflect two club options (for 2020 and '21) at an affordable $14.5 million per year; ZiPS projects the Cubs will be motivated to pick those up.
Rizzo has been a top-five first baseman both of the past two seasons, and his contract keeps him in Chicago for most of his prime at the yearly cost of what the Arizona Diamondbacks will pay some random middle reliever.
Chris Sale10. Chris Sale, SP
5 years, $32.5 million (2013-17)
Guaranteed left: $23.5M
Surplus value: +16.3 wins
The Cubs aren't the only Chicago team that has a franchise player locked up for years for pennies (well, the MLB version of pennies). The South Siders have their own in Sale, a perennial Cy Young Award contender. While many thought there was a risk that Sale would break down physically -- he always looks like he needs a sandwich despite being a world-class eater -- he has avoided serious injury so far. Sure, his ERA slipped to 3.41 in 2015, but at least some of that can blamed on a comically bad White Sox defense, one they've improved significantly since last season. Like Rizzo, Sale has two option years, and they're also at incredibly reasonable rates if he's healthy ($12.5 million in 2018, $13.5 million in '19).
Noah Syndergaard11. Noah Syndergaard, SP
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +15.1 wins
The Mets have arguably the best young pitching staff in baseball -- I'd say they do, but don't want to get into an unrelated argument -- and the brightest jewel is Syndergaard and his 97 mph fastball. With an even crazier upside than Jacob deGrom (who just barely missed this list), better health than Zack Wheeler and more years away from free agency than Matt Harvey, Syndergaard is the most valuable Mets pitcher. Perhaps we shouldn't be nicknaming him Thor, it's Thor who should be nicknamed Noah.
Chris Archer12. Chris Archer, SP
6 years, $25.5 million (2014-19)
Guaranteed left: $21.25M
Surplus value: +17.3 wins
Acquire an awesome young pitcher. Sign him long term. Have people come to watch the team win. OK, so the Tampa Bay Rays haven't quite managed the third part of the plan (at least the past two years), but like the Evan Longoria signing way back when, the Rays know the upside to locking in the long-term certainty with their young players. Sometime in his early 30s, Archer will be playing for a team with a bigger payroll, but the Rays will be able to get quite a bit from him before then. Archer also comes with two very affordable option years for 2020 and 2021.
Byron Buxton13. Byron Buxton, CF
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +17.3 wins
As you can see by his surplus value, ZiPS loves Buxton as much as the scouts do, but I'm knocking him down a few ranks because of his injury history, which would be in the back of a general manager's mind. Not a disqualifying factor by any means, simply one we must take into account considering how much a team would have to give up to acquire Buxton from the Twins.
The ZiPS top offensive comps for Buxton have a bunch of fun names in there, such as Adam Jones, Bernie Williams, Matt Kemp and Carlos Gomez (who eventually worked out, though not in Minnesota). That said, Lastings Milledge is in there too, and while Buxton ought to be a good deal better, it's good to be aware that nothing is a guarantee, whether it's a prospect or even a star in his prime.
Jose Fernandez14. Jose Fernandez, SP
1-year deal, then arbitration
Free agent after 2018 season
Surplus value: +10.1 wins
On talent alone, this is way too low for Fernandez, who should be up there with Harper and Machado. But he's also a pitcher coming off major surgery, and while he pitched just fine after returning, you cannot forget a significant elbow injury that caused him to pitch only 116 1/3 innings over two seasons. That risk has to be baked into the cake. But if Fernandez were to remain healthy all of 2016, any eventual trade involving him would be colossal.
Miguel Sano15. Miguel Sano, DH/3B/OF
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +14.5 wins
Sano has an almost limitless power upside, and he came back from a ruined 2014 due to Tommy John surgery as if it never happened, hitting 33 homers combined between Double-A and the majors. Like Buxton, he's a long way from free agency, and the Twins' revival relies on Buxton and Sano to be the building blocks of the franchise. I mean, it's not going to be that rotation, right?
J.P. Crawford16. J.P. Crawford, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after TBD season
Surplus value: +17.1 wins
ZiPS' No. 3 prospect heading into 2016, Crawford is the key player in a Phillies farm system that has rapidly improved thanks to better drafting and prospects that were acquired after the realization set in that the team had no realistic path to contention without a major direction change.
Crawford handled Double-A well at just 20, hitting .265/.354/.407 for Reading and showing little rust after missing April because of an abdominal injury. He is a very good shortstop, and ZiPS projects Crawford to hit in the neighborhood of 15 homers a year in his prime, with his peak ability projection being a respectable .264/.347/.442 line.
Kyle Schwarber17. Kyle Schwarber, OF/C
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +14.4 wins
Like Sano, Schwarber is one of the most impressive young power hitters in all of baseball, ranking behind Sano here only because his defensive abilities are slightly more of an open question than Sano's. But that power, which led to writer Jonah Keri dubbing him "Super Nintendo Schwarber," is so prodigious that it has inspired a whole new genre of news story, the Kyle Schwarber's hits break stuff column. And for the Cubs, him breaking the bank is a long way off.
Addison Russell18. Addison Russell, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +14.6 wins
Yup, another Cub. Having all this young talent is what enables the Cubs to be able to use so much of their payroll on free agents like Jon Lester and Jason Heyward. Russell's 2015 line of .242/.307/.389 didn't get much attention with Correa and Lindor going nuts, but these days, that's a solid performance for a shortstop, and not even one that is as competent defensively as Russell, one of the better defensive shortstops in the league.
Orlando Arcia19. Orlando Arcia, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after TBD season
Surplus value: +16.3 wins
And here we reach the sixth and final shortstop on our list. In a nutshell, MLB's young shortstop talent is the deepest it has been since the height of the A-Rod/Jeter/Garciaparra/Tejada era. Arcia, coming off a .307/.347/.453 season in Double-A at age 20, may very well be better than Jean Segura already, making the recent trade of the latter a no-brainer.
Arcia doesn't project as well offensively as some of the shortstops higher on this list, with ZiPS maxing him out in the .750 OPS range, but he may turn out to be the best defensive player of them all, fighting it out with Lindor for that crown.
Sonny Gray20. Sonny Gray, SP
1-year deal, then arbitration
Free agent after 2019 season
Surplus value: +12.8 wins
Gray ranks behind other pitchers with similar service time on this list (such as Archer) mainly because the A's haven't locked him up long term, creating some uncertainty past his free-agency year. That said, four years of Gray is quite valuable -- he just finished third in the AL Cy Young Award voting -- and though the A's have claimed they're not trading him anytime soon, if they're in last place in July, it would be very hard to resist the opportunity to stock a farm system that Keith Law ranked just 18th in baseball.
Luis Severino21. Luis Severino, SP
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +13.1 wins
Times are strange in New York, as the Yankees didn't sign any notable free agents this offseason. Even stranger is that despite some big contracts in the rotation, due to some injury questions, the Yankees' most dependable starting pitcher may be Severino, the pitcher making league minimum with 11 career starts in the majors. But those 11 starts were a key factor in getting the Yankees into the wild-card game.
Severino's 4.37 FIP wasn't as impressive as his 2.89 ERA, but that should also improve considerably given he was a 21-year-old who started the season in Double-A and was thrown directly into a pennant race.
Kevin Kiermaier22. Kevin Kiermaier, CF
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2020 season
Surplus value: +14.2 wins
Kiermaier makes this list thanks to his incredible defense in center field, measured at a ludicrous 42 runs better than a league-average center fielder by Baseball Info Solutions and 30 runs better than average by Ultimate Zone Rating. Defensive numbers can be quite volatile, but even if we aggressively cut that down to 10-15 runs a year, Kiermaier just has to hit like an average center fielder to be an above-average player/borderline star. And that he did, hitting an unexciting but perfectly acceptable .263/.298/.420 in 2015.
Starling Marte23. Starling Marte, OF
6 years, $31 million (2014-19)
Guaranteed left: $29.5M
Surplus value: +13.4 wins
Signed through 2021 if the Pirates pick up two (affordable) team options, Marte is just the latest young Pirates hitter the team wisely locked up long term as early as they were able to. Marte might be overshadowed by his more accomplished teammate in center, Andrew McCutchen, but he threatens an .800 OPS every year and he finally won his first Gold Glove Award (he could arguably have four already). If McCutchen ever left Pittsburgh, Marte could handle center field duties credibly (as could Gregory Polanco, for that matter).
Carlos Carrasco24. Carlos Carrasco, SP
4 years, $22 million (2015-1
Guaranteed left: $19.7M
Surplus value: +12.4 wins
Coming into 2015, there were a number of questions about Carrasco's true level of ability. He was a pitcher who had an ERA that always fell short of what his peripheral numbers suggested it should be, but had his first extended success as a starter in 2014. Left to sink or swim in the rotation all year in 2015, Carrasco upped his strikeout rate again to a stunning 10.6 K/9 and managed a 3.63 ERA in 183 2/3 innings. He fell short of his FIP again even with an improved Indians defense, but as long as that FIP stays below 3, he has room to not match it. With a very team-friendly contract being a necessity in Cleveland, Carrasco, who also has two reasonable team options, ought to remain in the Tribe's rotation for a long time.
Madison Bumgarner25. Madison Bumgarner, SP
5 years, $35 million (2013-17)
Guaranteed left: $23.75M
Surplus value: +12.3 wins
San Francisco's rotation was one of the major reasons the Giants won the 2010 World Series, but since then, most of that rotation has fallen on hard times: Barry Zito hit a precipitous decline, Tim Lincecum has become ineffective, Matt Cain has battled injuries and Jonathan Sanchez is out of the league due to all three. The one exception has been Bumgarner, who has never missed time to injury, and despite never really being in the Cy Young Award conversation, he pulls off his "average ace" routine dependably every season. He's down to two remaining guaranteed years, but the 2018 and 2019 options at $12 million each are likely to be picked up, whether due to vesting or the team's decision.
play
Best assets in baseball (3:31)
comment
5:10 PM ET
Dan Szymborski
Special to ESPN.com
One of the inescapable truths of baseball, like other major sports, is that a player's salary and contract situation are key components of a player's value to a franchise. Even in a sport without a hard salary cap, franchises face their own payroll constraints, though this obviously varies from team to team. To put together an 88-win team, a franchise needs to cobble together roughly 40 wins above replacement from their major league roster. If a team tried to assemble a roster solely from free agency, baseball's retail market for talent, you'd expect them to have to shell out something in the range of a $260 million payroll. And that's assuming all that talent is actually available in free agency -- the yearly free-agent market is frequently thin at multiple positions -- and, of course, players must actually agree to sign with them.
The best way to win championships, obviously, is to have a good team, but it's hard to put together a good team without a number of good contracts. Could Kansas City have put together their World Series championship without having Lorenzo Cain for $2.7 million, Salvador Perez at $1.8 million and Mike Moustakas at $2.6 million (among other reasonably priced players)?
EDITOR'S PICKS
Szymborski: MLB's biggest albatrosses
Dan Szymborski lays out the 25 worst contracts in baseball looking forward -- Albert Pujols and Matt Kemp are among the many big names on the list -- and examines what has gone wrong with each.
You hear a lot of talk about market inefficiencies in baseball -- that's the basis for the Moneyball concept -- but most inefficiencies tend to be self-correcting. At one time, on-base percentage wasn't highly valued in baseball, enabling a few teams to take advantage of that. But then the rest of the league caught on. There's a lot of chatter now about the importance of prospects and farm systems because that's a built-in inefficiency that is the product of the collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the players' association; young players pre-free agency are the lifeblood of well-run franchises, simply because of the bang for the buck they provide.
So who are the most valuable assets in baseball, the players that if traded today, could go a long way to refilling a franchise's farm system by themselves? To answer this question, I started out with the ZiPS projections and calculated the difference between the projected long-term performance of every player in baseball, and how much a team is projected to pay for that performance, whether from a signed contract or from predicting arbitration-year salaries. That difference, which I call surplus value, is expressed in wins rather than dollars; raw dollars can be misleading given that a dollar committed for 2030 (see: Chris Davis contract breakdown) and a dollar committed for 2016 are two very different things.
As I noted when laying out MLB's top 25 albatrosses earlier this week, a computer is very good at sifting through large data sets, but can't know everything about a particular team's situation or how a player is perceived around the league, things that affect a player's ultimate value. So this list isn't ordered simply be computer readout. There's some personal judgment blended in here as well, which I note in each player's write-up.
With that, let's get to Major League Baseball's 25 best assets.
Carlos Correa1. Carlos Correa, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +26.2 wins
This 2015 American League Rookie of the Year posted a .279/.345/.512 line after his midseason call-up while playing solid defense at a key defensive position, and he wasn't even the legal drinking age until September. Impressive, but what makes him No. 1? Because the Houston Astros control Correa for the next six seasons.
The truly scary thing for the rest of the league is that, given his age and how quickly he advanced through the minors, he could actually improve. ZiPS projects Correa to be a 6-7 WAR player in his prime, and he's years away from the Astros having to pay him anything close to what that level of performance merits. Correa is the most exciting young shortstop in baseball since Alex Rodriguez, who, as you might remember, turned out to be a pretty decent player. The sooner the Astros make him filthy rich and lock him up long term, the better it is for the franchise. On a related note, anyone still wish the Astros had signed a bunch of mediocre free agents and tried to win 75 games in 2011 rather than finishing with the worst record in baseball, earning them the first pick in the 2012 draft? That's what I thought.
Mike Trout2. Mike Trout, CF
6 years, $144.5 million (2015-20)
Guaranteed left: $134.25M
Surplus value: +24.2 wins
It's almost shocking that in a list of good players, Trout for once doesn't show up in the No. 1 spot, isn't it? It's not that he's not the best player in baseball -- he is -- but simply the reality that the years in which he is the best bargain are already in the rear window. He's still an excellent value, though, even with a contract that will eventually pay him more than $30 million a year, considering he's a player that if he were hit by a bus tomorrow, his first four full seasons have been of the quality that the Hall of Fame ought to waive the 10-year requirement, what is known as the Addie Joss exception.
The fact that Trout has only a single MVP so far is a robbery on the level of the 1970s Lufthansa heist. Trout is the all-time leader among MLB position players in wins above replacement through age 23, and the remainder of the top 10 are Hall of Fame-worthy (though No. 7, Alex Rodriguez, could have issues for obvious non-performance reasons). In fact, Trout could take three years of vacation and still rank 26th all time in WAR through age 26, right between Lou Gehrig and Cal Ripken.
Kris Bryant3. Kris Bryant, 3B
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +23.5 wins
Coming into the 2015 season, ZiPS gave Bryant a 4.3 WAR projection, the best projection the computer has given a rookie since its debut season in 2004. Bryant was even better than that, putting up 5.9 WAR and winning the National League Rookie of the Year award. There was a bit of controversy at the start of the year based on the Cubs starting Bryant in the minors so they could get an extra year of his services before free agency, and it's hard to argue that it didn't pay off, as they now get him for seven years rather than six. Bryant doesn't have the same massive upside that Correa has, so the Cubs will just have to settle for him being the best third baseman for the next decade or so.
Francisco Lindor4. Francisco Lindor, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +19.4 wins
Coming into the 2015 season, the questions about Lindor revolved around how much his offense would develop. Those questions were answered in 2015 in convincing fashion; Lindor hit .313/.353/.482 after his June call-up and finished just behind Correa in the AL ROY voting.
While Lindor is not likely to hit for the same amount of power as Correa, he's the better defensive shortstop, having already statistically confirmed the brilliant defensive ability that scouts saw in the minors. ZiPS sees Lindor hitting 20 homers per year in his prime, and he's an early favorite to be discussed in Cooperstown talk 20 years from now. And like Correa and Bryant, the Indians have him for at least six more seasons.
Mookie Betts5. Mookie Betts, OF
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2020 season
Surplus value: +19.0 wins
The Red Sox as a franchise have had more than their share of disappointments over the past few seasons, but one thing Boston can't be faulted for is how well it has Betts. A fifth-round pick who was a great deal less heralded initially than the players above him on this list, Betts struggled defensively at second base, and rather than focus on what he couldn't do, the Red Sox gave him the opportunity to play center field, which turned out to be a much better fit.
A long-time ZiPS favorite -- his No. 26 prospect ranking in 2014 was significantly higher than the scouting consensus -- all Betts did in the minors was hit. This continued in the majors, and now Betts, who turned 23 just after the 2015 season, has hit .291/.348/.471 with a 120 OPS+ in the majors in 867 plate appearances to go along with a solid glove in the outfield. If Trout is this generation's Willie Mays, Betts has to "settle" for being Duke Snider.
Corey Seager6. Corey Seager, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +22.8 wins
ZiPS is even more enthusiastic about Seager than I am, but I think it's fair to knock him down a few places, as the computer may be overrating his chances of staying at shortstop in the long term.
No, Seager isn't going to maintain his current .337 career batting average in the majors, but his .293/.344/.487 line at two levels in minors -- these days, Dodgers prospects don't have crazy Albuquerque-pumped numbers like in the days of Billy Ashley and Greg Brock -- suggests a bright future. And if he does stay at shortstop, his value just gets that much higher.
Bryce Harper7. Bryce Harper, OF
2-year deal, then arbitration
Free agent after 2018 season
Surplus value: +14.9 wins
I think it's appropriate to place Harper higher than a straight surplus value would rank him simply because he's the type of player that teams would in fact aggressively pay for, given the opportunity. Sure, he has only three seasons until free agency, and sure, his salary will increase quickly as he goes through arbitration, but where else are you going to get a player who just had a season in which he hit like Ted Williams in his age-22 season? I'm not even joking, Harper's 195 OPS+ in 2015 is right in the neighborhood of Williams' 190 OPS+ for his career, and, umm, Ted Williams was pretty good. Even with some amount of regression toward the mean, which you usually see after a huge breakout year, Harper is easily an elite player and a franchise-maker.
Manny Machado8. Manny Machado, 3B
1-year deal, then arbitration
Free agent after 2018 season
Surplus value: +13.7 wins
Harper, Machado and Jose Fernandez are set to hit free agency after the 2018 season. Now that's a pretty good free-agent class. Machado finally had his breakthrough offensive season, putting up a 131 OPS+ at age 22 and playing his usual Gold Glove defense at third.
The trade value here is more theoretical than most; if the Orioles have a bad season this year or next and aren't going to spend upward of $200 million to retain Machado long term, they have to start thinking about trading him. A Machado trade could single-handedly stock the farm system, though I'm from Baltimore and still would want to roll into a ball and cry. Hey, I'm still not over the loss of Mike Mussina.
Anthony Rizzo9. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
7 years, $41 million (2013-19)
Guaranteed left: $32 million
Surplus value: +18.8 wins
GMs, don't let your babies grow up to be free agents. The benefits of keeping your best players past their arbitration years far outweigh the risk you take by guaranteeing them money rather than giving them $500,000 a year and hope arbitration isn't too nasty. The contract details above don't even reflect two club options (for 2020 and '21) at an affordable $14.5 million per year; ZiPS projects the Cubs will be motivated to pick those up.
Rizzo has been a top-five first baseman both of the past two seasons, and his contract keeps him in Chicago for most of his prime at the yearly cost of what the Arizona Diamondbacks will pay some random middle reliever.
Chris Sale10. Chris Sale, SP
5 years, $32.5 million (2013-17)
Guaranteed left: $23.5M
Surplus value: +16.3 wins
The Cubs aren't the only Chicago team that has a franchise player locked up for years for pennies (well, the MLB version of pennies). The South Siders have their own in Sale, a perennial Cy Young Award contender. While many thought there was a risk that Sale would break down physically -- he always looks like he needs a sandwich despite being a world-class eater -- he has avoided serious injury so far. Sure, his ERA slipped to 3.41 in 2015, but at least some of that can blamed on a comically bad White Sox defense, one they've improved significantly since last season. Like Rizzo, Sale has two option years, and they're also at incredibly reasonable rates if he's healthy ($12.5 million in 2018, $13.5 million in '19).
Noah Syndergaard11. Noah Syndergaard, SP
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +15.1 wins
The Mets have arguably the best young pitching staff in baseball -- I'd say they do, but don't want to get into an unrelated argument -- and the brightest jewel is Syndergaard and his 97 mph fastball. With an even crazier upside than Jacob deGrom (who just barely missed this list), better health than Zack Wheeler and more years away from free agency than Matt Harvey, Syndergaard is the most valuable Mets pitcher. Perhaps we shouldn't be nicknaming him Thor, it's Thor who should be nicknamed Noah.
Chris Archer12. Chris Archer, SP
6 years, $25.5 million (2014-19)
Guaranteed left: $21.25M
Surplus value: +17.3 wins
Acquire an awesome young pitcher. Sign him long term. Have people come to watch the team win. OK, so the Tampa Bay Rays haven't quite managed the third part of the plan (at least the past two years), but like the Evan Longoria signing way back when, the Rays know the upside to locking in the long-term certainty with their young players. Sometime in his early 30s, Archer will be playing for a team with a bigger payroll, but the Rays will be able to get quite a bit from him before then. Archer also comes with two very affordable option years for 2020 and 2021.
Byron Buxton13. Byron Buxton, CF
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +17.3 wins
As you can see by his surplus value, ZiPS loves Buxton as much as the scouts do, but I'm knocking him down a few ranks because of his injury history, which would be in the back of a general manager's mind. Not a disqualifying factor by any means, simply one we must take into account considering how much a team would have to give up to acquire Buxton from the Twins.
The ZiPS top offensive comps for Buxton have a bunch of fun names in there, such as Adam Jones, Bernie Williams, Matt Kemp and Carlos Gomez (who eventually worked out, though not in Minnesota). That said, Lastings Milledge is in there too, and while Buxton ought to be a good deal better, it's good to be aware that nothing is a guarantee, whether it's a prospect or even a star in his prime.
Jose Fernandez14. Jose Fernandez, SP
1-year deal, then arbitration
Free agent after 2018 season
Surplus value: +10.1 wins
On talent alone, this is way too low for Fernandez, who should be up there with Harper and Machado. But he's also a pitcher coming off major surgery, and while he pitched just fine after returning, you cannot forget a significant elbow injury that caused him to pitch only 116 1/3 innings over two seasons. That risk has to be baked into the cake. But if Fernandez were to remain healthy all of 2016, any eventual trade involving him would be colossal.
Miguel Sano15. Miguel Sano, DH/3B/OF
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +14.5 wins
Sano has an almost limitless power upside, and he came back from a ruined 2014 due to Tommy John surgery as if it never happened, hitting 33 homers combined between Double-A and the majors. Like Buxton, he's a long way from free agency, and the Twins' revival relies on Buxton and Sano to be the building blocks of the franchise. I mean, it's not going to be that rotation, right?
J.P. Crawford16. J.P. Crawford, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after TBD season
Surplus value: +17.1 wins
ZiPS' No. 3 prospect heading into 2016, Crawford is the key player in a Phillies farm system that has rapidly improved thanks to better drafting and prospects that were acquired after the realization set in that the team had no realistic path to contention without a major direction change.
Crawford handled Double-A well at just 20, hitting .265/.354/.407 for Reading and showing little rust after missing April because of an abdominal injury. He is a very good shortstop, and ZiPS projects Crawford to hit in the neighborhood of 15 homers a year in his prime, with his peak ability projection being a respectable .264/.347/.442 line.
Kyle Schwarber17. Kyle Schwarber, OF/C
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +14.4 wins
Like Sano, Schwarber is one of the most impressive young power hitters in all of baseball, ranking behind Sano here only because his defensive abilities are slightly more of an open question than Sano's. But that power, which led to writer Jonah Keri dubbing him "Super Nintendo Schwarber," is so prodigious that it has inspired a whole new genre of news story, the Kyle Schwarber's hits break stuff column. And for the Cubs, him breaking the bank is a long way off.
Addison Russell18. Addison Russell, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +14.6 wins
Yup, another Cub. Having all this young talent is what enables the Cubs to be able to use so much of their payroll on free agents like Jon Lester and Jason Heyward. Russell's 2015 line of .242/.307/.389 didn't get much attention with Correa and Lindor going nuts, but these days, that's a solid performance for a shortstop, and not even one that is as competent defensively as Russell, one of the better defensive shortstops in the league.
Orlando Arcia19. Orlando Arcia, SS
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after TBD season
Surplus value: +16.3 wins
And here we reach the sixth and final shortstop on our list. In a nutshell, MLB's young shortstop talent is the deepest it has been since the height of the A-Rod/Jeter/Garciaparra/Tejada era. Arcia, coming off a .307/.347/.453 season in Double-A at age 20, may very well be better than Jean Segura already, making the recent trade of the latter a no-brainer.
Arcia doesn't project as well offensively as some of the shortstops higher on this list, with ZiPS maxing him out in the .750 OPS range, but he may turn out to be the best defensive player of them all, fighting it out with Lindor for that crown.
Sonny Gray20. Sonny Gray, SP
1-year deal, then arbitration
Free agent after 2019 season
Surplus value: +12.8 wins
Gray ranks behind other pitchers with similar service time on this list (such as Archer) mainly because the A's haven't locked him up long term, creating some uncertainty past his free-agency year. That said, four years of Gray is quite valuable -- he just finished third in the AL Cy Young Award voting -- and though the A's have claimed they're not trading him anytime soon, if they're in last place in July, it would be very hard to resist the opportunity to stock a farm system that Keith Law ranked just 18th in baseball.
Luis Severino21. Luis Severino, SP
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2021 season
Surplus value: +13.1 wins
Times are strange in New York, as the Yankees didn't sign any notable free agents this offseason. Even stranger is that despite some big contracts in the rotation, due to some injury questions, the Yankees' most dependable starting pitcher may be Severino, the pitcher making league minimum with 11 career starts in the majors. But those 11 starts were a key factor in getting the Yankees into the wild-card game.
Severino's 4.37 FIP wasn't as impressive as his 2.89 ERA, but that should also improve considerably given he was a 21-year-old who started the season in Double-A and was thrown directly into a pennant race.
Kevin Kiermaier22. Kevin Kiermaier, CF
Pre-arbitration
Free agent after 2020 season
Surplus value: +14.2 wins
Kiermaier makes this list thanks to his incredible defense in center field, measured at a ludicrous 42 runs better than a league-average center fielder by Baseball Info Solutions and 30 runs better than average by Ultimate Zone Rating. Defensive numbers can be quite volatile, but even if we aggressively cut that down to 10-15 runs a year, Kiermaier just has to hit like an average center fielder to be an above-average player/borderline star. And that he did, hitting an unexciting but perfectly acceptable .263/.298/.420 in 2015.
Starling Marte23. Starling Marte, OF
6 years, $31 million (2014-19)
Guaranteed left: $29.5M
Surplus value: +13.4 wins
Signed through 2021 if the Pirates pick up two (affordable) team options, Marte is just the latest young Pirates hitter the team wisely locked up long term as early as they were able to. Marte might be overshadowed by his more accomplished teammate in center, Andrew McCutchen, but he threatens an .800 OPS every year and he finally won his first Gold Glove Award (he could arguably have four already). If McCutchen ever left Pittsburgh, Marte could handle center field duties credibly (as could Gregory Polanco, for that matter).
Carlos Carrasco24. Carlos Carrasco, SP
4 years, $22 million (2015-1
Guaranteed left: $19.7M
Surplus value: +12.4 wins
Coming into 2015, there were a number of questions about Carrasco's true level of ability. He was a pitcher who had an ERA that always fell short of what his peripheral numbers suggested it should be, but had his first extended success as a starter in 2014. Left to sink or swim in the rotation all year in 2015, Carrasco upped his strikeout rate again to a stunning 10.6 K/9 and managed a 3.63 ERA in 183 2/3 innings. He fell short of his FIP again even with an improved Indians defense, but as long as that FIP stays below 3, he has room to not match it. With a very team-friendly contract being a necessity in Cleveland, Carrasco, who also has two reasonable team options, ought to remain in the Tribe's rotation for a long time.
Madison Bumgarner25. Madison Bumgarner, SP
5 years, $35 million (2013-17)
Guaranteed left: $23.75M
Surplus value: +12.3 wins
San Francisco's rotation was one of the major reasons the Giants won the 2010 World Series, but since then, most of that rotation has fallen on hard times: Barry Zito hit a precipitous decline, Tim Lincecum has become ineffective, Matt Cain has battled injuries and Jonathan Sanchez is out of the league due to all three. The one exception has been Bumgarner, who has never missed time to injury, and despite never really being in the Cy Young Award conversation, he pulls off his "average ace" routine dependably every season. He's down to two remaining guaranteed years, but the 2018 and 2019 options at $12 million each are likely to be picked up, whether due to vesting or the team's decision.
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- Aug 16, 2012
tbh. could be a PR ploy from the Jays.
things got a lil bit more interesting with these tweets from Jose...
Jose Bautista @JoeyBats19 6h6 hours ago
"Can't fool the city man, they know whassup..." Drake
with Stroman responding:
Marcus Stroman @MStrooo6
@JoeyBats19 please, think before you come for the great one! @Drake
... in the end. who really knows. lol
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