I dont understand why albert is still in the 3rd spot of the lineup..............he needs to be dropped from the 3rd spot, tori hunter iss better fit right now.
dude is batting .208 right now..............why would you keep him in a big rbi spot if he isnt getting on base or knocking in runs?
Our offense is absolutely pathetic, Rick Ankiel hit third for us tonight. I repeat Rick Ankiel hit third for the Washington Nationals tonight. Our hot start this season is starting to remind me of the ******** 3-1 start last season...only downhill from here.
for everything our GM did right with the pitching staff, he did absolutely nothing to help the offense. And how bad the offense is is just magnified by the losses of Zimmerman and Morse.
Our offense is absolutely pathetic, Rick Ankiel hit third for us tonight. I repeat Rick Ankiel hit third for the Washington Nationals tonight. Our hot start this season is starting to remind me of the ******** 3-1 start last season...only downhill from here.
for everything our GM did right with the pitching staff, he did absolutely nothing to help the offense. And how bad the offense is is just magnified by the losses of Zimmerman and Morse.
IDGAF if it was babe ruth or reggie jackson........you batting .208 for the season, you`re either on the bench or batting 7th till you figure out your issue.
IDGAF if it was babe ruth or reggie jackson........you batting .208 for the season, you`re either on the bench or batting 7th till you figure out your issue.
A month may not seem like a long time in baseball, but it's long enough to dig a hole. Projections are valuable tools, but they never stand still, as new information about players and teams is added with each game that's played. In the ZiPS preseason projections, the Philadelphia Phillies just edged out the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, with the Washington Nationals a little farther back and the New York Mets safely in the cellar.
Even after a couple dozen games, enough has happened in the National League East to turn the division upside down.
To calculate the rest of the season's games, the same Monte Carlo methods used to project the seasonal standings back in March were used, but the standings have been updated with new projections for each player and the win-loss records that are "in the bag" already. With April complete, here's how the new NL East projections look:
[h4]Updated NL East projections[/h4]
After the first month of the season, here's how ZiPS projects the NL East to finish in 2012.
[th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
Division
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Preseason Division
[/th][th=""]
Preseason Playoffs
[/th]
The Braves were ZiPS's preseason pick to finish second in the division, just behind Philadelphia. But with a 14-9 record and the Phillies limping, ZiPS now thinks Atlanta is the team to beat in the division. Jair Jurrjens has done enough damage to send his projected rest-of-season ERA up to 4.20 from his preseason 3.81 -- doubling your walk rate and striking out four batters a game has a funny way of doing that -- but the Braves possess enough pitching depth to allow Jurrjens to work through his issues in the minors.
Tim Hudson appears healthy, and getting him back is a major boon in this department. The offense should remain solid, with Michael Bourn the only one really playing at an unsustainable level. If you were bullish on the Braves last month, there's no reason to change gears now.
No team in the division has done more to help itself this season than the first-place Nats. While Stephen Strasburg's durability in the long haul is still a question, his post-Tommy John performance isn't. These projections were made with the expectation that the Nats keep Bryce Harper in the big leagues, and even with ZiPS not expecting him to be a star quite yet (projected line for rest of the season: .240/.319/.401), he's a solid improvement over Rick Ankiel (rest-of-season ZiPS line of .232 AVG/.291 OBP/.387 SLG) and Roger Bernadina (.234/.298/.363).
ZiPS projects a great deal of regression from Ross Detwiler -- his FIP well more than a run higher compared to his ERA, and he doesn't have much of a resume of success starting, but he's looking less and less like a potential disaster. In the lead by a half-game at the moment, Washington now has to play only within six games of the Marlins and 3.5 of the Phillies to finish no worse than second in the division.
Every time I ask ZiPS to project the Phillies, they end up coming out a little worse. The pitchers not named Joe Blanton are pitching as well as you would expect the pitchers not named Joe Blanton to be pitching, with Cole Hamels the worst of the front four with a 2.73 ERA. However, when your team is hitting .247/.293/.347, it's hard to win a competitive division no matter how good the pitching is. Ty Wigginton has been surprisingly good at first base, but lineups that feature Wigginton, Juan Pierre, Laynce Nix and even Pete Orr typically don't challenge for a playoff spot.
Throw in Freddy Galvis, a serviceable utility guy forced to start, and the hitting portion of the box scores has looked like something more akin to what you see in a Grapefruit League game or from replacement players during a strike. The Phillies aren't completely dead in the water, as there's been good news for a change in the recoveries of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins can't possibly be this bad, but the team's still in its weakest position in years.
Perhaps Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen should make more controversial comments to distract for a few more days from how poorly Miami is playing. Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton will end the season with significantly better stats than they currently have, but in a very competitive division, six games is a lot to spot. Even if you think the Marlins, from here on out, are three games better than any other team in the division, that wouldn't be enough to get them into the playoffs. Unfortunately, there's no luck deity out there, pulling the string to make sure each team gets its correct share of hot and cold streaks.
ZiPS views the Mets as a bit of a mirage this season, still seeing them as the worst team in the division, though not completely hopeless thanks to their surprising start. The team is being outscored by almost a run a game, so it hasn't really played at a 13-10 level this season. On the plus side, the projections for Johan Santana have improved; Santana was originally projected to put up a 3.56 ERA in 91 innings, and now ZiPS has him up to 3.14 ERA for the season in 109 innings. Perhaps the toughest issue the Mets have to deal with now is David Wright.
Even if the team trading for him loses the option year, thus making him less valuable, New York is not really in a position that it can turn down a good offer. After his best start ever, Wright's rest-of-season projection is up to .280/.367/.464, as a lot of questions surrounding his health have at least been told to shut up for the moment. Even with the settlement with Bernie Madoff trustee Irving Picard, the franchise doesn't look like it will be able to make any splashy investments in the near term. A good start that convinces ownership to stand pat may be worse overall for the franchise than a bad start.
Next moves for the Dodgers.
Spoiler [+]
The Frank McCourt era in Dodgers history is over, writes Bill Shaikin. There will be a news conference today, where the group led by Mark Walter, Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson will be introduced, as the new leaders of one of baseball's crown-jewel franchises.
There is a whole lot of work ahead for these guys, as they decide how to renovate Dodger Stadium, improve the fan experience and delve into other ways to monetize their investment.
That will include a conversation about how to make the team better on the field -- and keep in mind, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been pretty good so far, with more wins than any other National League team and a four-game lead in the NL West.
The Dodgers figure to be aggressive in the trade market before the July 31 deadline, maybe adding to their lineup or to their pitching staff. But the increased financial flexibility general manager Ned Colletti will have going forward doesn't necessarily mean Los Angeles can make deals, because you need to match up well with another team, and you have to have the tradable assets to complete a move.
They almost certainly will grow their payroll going into next season; it's only at $90 million for this 2012 season, slashed by about 25 to percent in recent years, and can easily increase into the range for the superpower franchises. This is good news for players who might test the market in the fall, such as Cole Hamels, Miguel Montero, Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton.
The first real change you probably will see in how the Dodgers run their baseball operations, according to industry sources, is in their participation in the market for Latin American players.
For years, the Dodgers were MLB leaders in this, reaching agreements with players like Roberto Clemente, and signing and developing players in the Dominican Republic, from Pedro Guerrero to the Martinez brothers, Ramon and Pedro. But during McCourt's time as owner, the Dodgers basically stopped participating in Latin America. Under the new rules negotiated by MLB and the union, teams are limited to spending $2.9 million annually in this market -- and that's probably more than the Dodgers spent during McCourt's tenure.
Kasten, if you remember, was part of an Atlanta Braves organization that became a model for player development, so you can bet he would love to restore the Dodgers to their prior standing of preeminence in this area.
Changes are coming, and maybe the first people who will feel the ripples of that will be in Venezuela, or the Dominican, or Mexico, or Colombia.
The call for McCourt closure has finally been answered, writes Tom Hoffarth.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Manny Ramirez is about halfway through his 50-game suspension, and the Oakland Athletics are expected to activate Ramirez when he's first eligible to play on May 30. During the last 10 days of his suspension, he is permitted to play for minor league affiliates.
Nobody really knows how Ramirez will fare, as he tries to come back and play for the first time in more than a year. But he certainly can't make the Athletics any worse: Oakland ranks 30th among 30 teams in on-base percentage.
Here's the good news: The Nationals' pitching continues to be superlative. Consider this statistic, which was dug out through a request to ESPN's Katie Sharp and the Elias Sports Bureau: The Nationals allowed a total of six homers in April, which was less than a handful of individual pitchers, most notably the Angels' Ervin Santana, who allowed 10. The last time a team finished April with fewer homers allowed than individual pitchers was in 1997, and that team was the Atlanta Braves, of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, et al.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Cahill beat the Nationals:
A) Cahill relied on his changeup to neutralize Nationals lefties, especially Harper. Cahill threw eight changeups to Harper and 11 combined to the other four lefties in the lineup. Harper missed on three of his four swings against Cahill's changeup, including a strikeout; he had seen only six changeups in his first two games (zero swings and misses). B) Cahill started 22 of 28 hitters with a first-pitch strike (78.6 percent), his second-highest percentage in 101 career starts. C) Cahill recorded 20 of his 22 outs via strikeouts or ground balls. His 15 ground-ball outs are the second most of his career.
[h4]Facing the change[/h4]
MLB players who have seen the highest percentage of changeups this season (qualified hitters only).
>>Bryce Harper: 28.6 percent changeups in three games
[th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
Percentage
[/th]
• From ESPN Stats & Info: Pitchers have not waited to attack Harper's reported weakness: changeups. While it's been only three games, Harper has seen a TON of changeups; in fact, he's seen changeups about three out of every 10 pitches. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, that would easily rank as the highest rate in the majors.
Harper is taking Washington by storm, writes Amanda Comak.
• Buck Showalter picked up win No. 1,000, and Brian Matusz ended a winless streak, as Dan Connolly writes.
• The St. Louis Cardinals are retiring Tony La Russa's No. 10. As it should be.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. There has been no recent progress in the Phillies' contract talks with Cole Hamels. The market has defined the price tag for Hamels, with the Matt Cain extension of five years and $112.5 million being the bottom floor, and with each passing day -- as Hamels draws closer to free agency -- the price tag for the Phillies goes up. Sources affiliated with the players' union are confident that Hamels will get contract offers of six years this fall if he were to file for free agency.
9. Johnny Damon is expected to be the leadoff hitter.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. If all goes well, Carl Crawford could get the green light to throw in about 10 days, and he could be back in about seven weeks.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how he lost against the White Sox:
[h4]Lowering the heat[/h4]
Tracking the decline of Ubaldo Jimenez's fastball velocity and overall strikeout rate in the last three seasons.
2012
91.8
10.5%
2011
93.2
21.9%
2010
95.9
23.9%
[th=""]
Season
[/th][th=""]
Avg. FB (mph)
[/th][th=""]
K Rate
[/th]
A) Jimenez didn't induce a single swing-and-miss until his 92nd pitch. He finished with just three, tied for his fewest in 153 career starts. He had only one strikeout, which is also a career low. B) White Sox hitters swung at just six of Jimenez's 58 pitches that were out of the strike zone (10.3 percent). That's the second-lowest chase percentage against Jimenez since 2009. Opponents are chasing 17.8 percent of Jimenez's pitches out of the zone this season, the lowest rate among MLB starters. C) Jimenez started 11 of 28 hitters with a first-pitch strike (39.3 percent), his fourth-lowest percentage since 2009. He tied a career high with six walks, all of which came after he started the hitter with a first-pitch ball. He leads the majors with 20 walks in 28 2/3 innings this season.
As you can see, this follows the trend -- his fastball velocity has steadily declined, and his strikeout rate has gone with it (see chart).
From ESPN Stats & Info: Lawrie, who is the only player born in the 1990s to hit a walk-off home run, is one of three active players to hit multiple walk-off homers before turning 23 years old. The others: Carl Crawford and Ryan Zimmerman (three times).
8. The Marlins got out of Miami and got a win behind Ricky Nolasco, as Joe Capozzi writes. Heath Bell will remain the Marlins' closer for now, and he got the save Tuesday night, as Juan Rodriguez writes.
3: Seconds it took for Pablo Sandoval's home run to leave AT&T Park, the fastest ball that left that park this year. 29: Hitless at-bats for Nick Johnson this season prior to his double Tuesday. 3,221: Days Jerome Williams went between complete games from 2003 to Tuesday.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Albert Pujols has now gone 96 at-bats without a home run this season, the second-most in a single season in his career (he went 105 at-bats last year).
From Elias: Pujols' homerless streak is the third-longest streak to start a season by a player who had at least 400 career home runs entering the seasons. Only Eddie Murray (109 in 1996) and Ken Griffey Jr. (98 in 2010) had longer streaks.
Five future No. 1 starters.
Spoiler [+]
With Bryce Harper and Mike Trout getting the call to the big leagues, Dylan Bundy is now the official engineer of the prospect hype train, and with good reason. The 19-year-old began the season with 13 no-hit innings and has struck out 25 of the 52 batters he has faced for low Class A Delmarva (Orioles), while allowing just three to reach base. This performance has produced the inevitable questions, especially on Twitter, regarding whether or not Bundy can become a No. 1 starter. However, becoming a No. 1 starter takes more than just stuff and command. It takes something that is more than a bit ineffable.
To be clear, "No. 1 starter" is a scouting/industry term, not a slot in the rotation. There were plenty of No. 3 starters taking the bump on Opening Day. There are 10 or fewer No. 1 starters in baseball. It takes stuff and command, but also durability, consistency and that extra something else.
"The label is the ultimate of the ultimate, and there's nothing wrong with a strict standard," an American League executive said. "I never project a prospect as anything more than a No. 2 starter for a reason. You're not a No. 1 until you actually prove over a period of time that you are a No. 1 in the big leagues. You cannot be anointed by a scouting report."
An AL scout echoed that sentiment: "The radar gun can't tell you who is going to be a No. 1. We envision guys in the mid-90s with crippling breaking balls and physicality, but at the end of the day, guys like Justin Verlander or Pedro Martinez become No. 1's at the major league level. Until you are pitching in the big leagues and putting away Cabrera and Fielder back-to-back, you're not a No. 1."
As for the extra component, people in the industry have trouble explaining it, but they know it when they see it.
"No. 1 guys are the guy where every time they take the mound, you feel you are going to win," another executive explained. "Every time out, you are going to get a defined area of performance. Good starters will give you average starts half of the time, and then be really good 25 percent of the time and bad the other 25 percent. A No. 1 is giving you 50 percent elite starts, 25 percent really good and 25 percent average. When you see Verlander get hit hard by the Yankees, you know he's going to deal the next time out. That's a No. 1. When you see Sabathia going late in the season for the Brewers on three days rest and pitching them into the playoffs, that's a No. 1. Most starters can't do that."
So while Bundy certainly has the makings for being a No. 1, he's far from joining that exclusive club.
"The hyperbole is justified," said a scout who has seen Bundy since his high school days. "His stuff and makeup are off the chart, and what he's doing to start a professional career might be unprecedented. But it's a long journey from Delmarva to No. 1."
Not only are No. 1 starters rare, but so are prospects with even the chances to even be a No. 1 starter. When asked how many potential No. 1's are in the minor leagues, the answers ranged from five to 15.
"There have been plenty of guys who looked like No. 1 starters in the minors or in the draft, and we've ended up with far more three, four, five starters or relievers than ones," said a National League exec.
"Whoever takes [Stanford right-hander] Mark Appel in June is going to have a press conference, and they are going to say he has a good chances to be a No. 1 starter," added an American League assistant GM. "And he does. But if we only have 10 or so of them in the big leagues, what really are the chances?"
Understanding the rarity and the unlikeliness that any pitcher will become a No. 1 starter, here are five pitching prospects who the industry sees as having the best chance, ranked in order of likelihood of becoming bona fide aces.
[h3]1. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners (Double-A Jackson)[/h3]
For many in the industry, Bundy's performance hasn't even been the most impressive by a pitcher in the minors. Consider Walker, who has a 1.64 ERA in four starts while striking out 26 in 22 innings and limiting the Southern League to a .203 batting average. Those numbers certainly aren't as gaudy as Bundy's, but Walker is doing it at Double-A, and he's just three months older than the Orioles' prize pitcher.
With a 92-97 mph fastball, mid-70s curveball and impressive changeup, Walker certainly has the stuff to be a No. 1 starter, and his ability to dominate at such a young age says something about his makeup as well.
"Every pitch he throws comes out of the same slot, and it's just impossible to pick up," a National League scout said. "He's like a poor man's Doc Gooden -- he's really out of that mold."
[h3]2. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (Low-A Delmarva)[/h3]
Bundy's numbers have been well documented, but the 6-1, 195-pounder also has No. 1 stuff with an upper-90s fastball and a curveball and changeup that are both already above-average offerings.
"When you think about future No. 1 starters, Bundy is the guy who has a real chance," an American League scouting director said.
That belief was universal, but an American League executive was sure to point out that with just 17 innings of pro experience, there is still plenty that we don't know.
"Bundy is obviously ridiculous, but there are things he is still going to go through," the exec explained. "He's going to get punched in the face, and nobody knows what a guy's makeup is until they fail."
The problem that Baltimore faces, according to the exec, is that it can't force that failure.
"Bundy is not going to get touched in Low-A," he said. "Short of starting him at Double- or Triple-A, there is now way to artificially create that challenge."
[h3]3. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Low-A South Bend)[/h3]
No 2011 draft pick has already done more to boost his stock in the past year than Bradley, who was taken seventh overall. From stunning showings in instructs and spring training to a five-start stint in the low Class A Midwest League in which he's allowed just eight hits in 26 innings while striking out 30, Bradley has shown the rare combination of elite velocity and sink to go with a curveball that earns just as much praise. And at 6-4, 225, he certainly looks the part of a No. 1 starter.
"I'd actually take him over Bundy," an American League scout said. "He's the more traditional physical package you look for in a future ace."
[h3]4. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (High-A Bradenton)[/h3]
Coming off his best start as a professional on Monday when he allowed one hit in six shutout innings high Class A Bradenton, Cole has a 3.54 ERA in five starts and 29 strikeouts in 23 innings, but his stuff is still way ahead of his numbers.
"People forget that this guy throws 100 mph every time out and has two plus offerings behind it," said a National League scout. "If he figures out how to harness everything, he could be as good as any of them."
[h3]5. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates (High-A Bradenton)[/h3]
The Pirates have focused on pitching with their top picks of late, and Taillon, who stands at 6-6, 225, has begun to dominate following a 2011 season during which the Pirates often tied one hand behind his back by forcing him to go without his plus-plus breaking pitches. With the training wheels finally off, Cole's Bradenton teammate has a 1.46 ERA with 28 strikeouts and just four walks in 24 2/3 innings.
"From the body to the frame to the delivery to the stuff to the command, I'm not sure there's another guy who can check off as many boxes when it comes to finding a future No. 1 starter," said a National League scout.
What went wrong for the Royals?
Spoiler [+]
It's well-documented that the Kansas City Royals have struggled for much of the past two decades, but 2012 was supposed to be different in the eyes of many observers. A trip to the playoffs was never realistically in the cards, but because of a promising young nucleus, it was easy to envision an improvement on last year's 71-91 record and possible contention in 2013.
Yet on May 1, the Royals are 6-15 after losing 12 straight games near the end of April, and many folks are wondering what exactly happened to all that optimism surrounding the team. The good news for Kansas City fans is that some of these tough times can be chalked up to bad luck; however, there are other issues that won't be as easy to fix.
The Royals' biggest problem so far this season is that their best hitter, Eric Hosmer, has been unlucky despite a lot of hard-hit balls, including a .164 batting average on balls in play that's around half of what it's likely to be the rest of the year. He's put a lot of balls in play to the opposite field because he has a habit of landing his feet slightly open and pulling off the ball, which isn't new but looks like it's happening a little more than it did previously. Hosmer is strong enough to do that and still hit doubles and home runs to left-center if he's not hitting the ball right at someone. He's walking and hitting for power, so if he can just get that front foot down more in line with his back foot, more of those hard-hit balls to left should end up as hits.
As a team, the Royals are slugging about 60 points higher with the bases empty than with men in scoring position, random variation that doesn't indicate any particular lack of skill but should normalize throughout the season.
Of course, it hasn't helped that manager Ned Yost can't seem to fill out a lineup card without suffering a severe brain cramp. In the leadoff spot, Yost has used Chris Getz (.315 career OBP), Yuniesky Betancourt (.292), Jason Bourgeois (.307) or rookie Jarrod Dyson in half the Royals' games. Yost has even hit Alcides Escobar, who came into the season with a .294 career OBP in nearly 1,300 plate appearances, second three times. Lineup construction isn't a huge factor in any team's offensive performance, but there is some small impact from keeping your out machines at the bottom of the lineup so that someone is getting on base in front of Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Hosmer. Yost's lineup lunacy bottomed out on April 23 when Getz, who shouldn't be in any major league team's lineup, sacrificed with a man on second and no outs, a situation in which a successful sacrifice actually reduces the team's run expectancy for the inning. (The runner didn't score.) If your No. 2 hitter isn't good enough for you to let him swing away with a man on second and nobody out, he's not good enough to be your No. 2 hitter, period.
Assuming Yost can figure out where to put his deadweight in the lineup, a little better luck for Hosmer & Co. should put the Royals in the top half of the American League in runs scored.
Things don't look as promising on the other side of the ball. Greg Holland, the ace of last year's bullpen, has been lit up by left-handed hitters this year in a minuscule sample, mostly by leaving fastballs and sliders up in the zone; he's thrown six splitters all year (per Bloomberg Sports), only one for a strike, a ground ball to first hit by Maicer Izturis. We're likely seeing nothing but statistical noise here, but perhaps Holland would be better off if he could keep left-handers from sitting on that straight four-seamer. Losing Joakim Soria to injury hurt, but replacing 60 innings of his performance isn't as big as replacing a league-average starter, and Aaron Crow and Jonathan Broxton should fill that gap. I doubt we'll be talking about the Royals' offense or bullpen in October when dissecting what went wrong for this team.
That leaves the one area that even folks (including me) who were generally optimistic about the club acknowledged was their main weakness: Their rotation just isn't good enough.
The team's most promising major league starter at this point is Danny Duffy, who has shown increased velocity so far this year and missed his last start with a sore elbow. After a promising side session on Sunday, he's expected to make his next start, but a velocity spike plus immediate arm soreness is a dangerous sign. Speaking anecdotally, it seems we often hear about a pitcher throwing harder than ever right before something goes "snap!" (Nick Hagadone has always stood out as one such example for me.) Duffy was hitting 97 mph regularly before the injury, but his slider was harder and he had better action on the changeup, as well. If he's healthy, he could be a big part of a turnaround this year, but pushing him too hard this year could cost the Royals significantly more in the long term if there's really something wrong with his arm. The Royals' problem is that Duffy is the one guy here who could put in a well above league-average performance; you're not getting that from Bruce Chen's smoke-and-mirrors act (more mirrors this year, less smoke), or from Luke Hochevar, who doesn't have the stuff to miss enough bats or limit homers to let him pitch like a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.
Dropping Luis Mendoza (6.00 ERA, 0.55 K/BB ratio) from the rotation is an obvious move, and Jonathan Sanchez (6.75, 0.76) isn't far behind, but the upper levels of Kansas City's farm system don't offer a ton of immediate help. Lefty Mike Montgomery should be next in line for the call, but after a brutal spring and two rough starts to begin the season, he's had two solid outings, hardly enough to justify recalling him (especially because he struggled most of last year, as well). Right-hander Jake Odorizzi, the only viable option at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, still has work to do with his off-speed stuff, and rushing him to the majors isn't going to help him or the club. That lack of depth probably will hold this team back all season, and it's also a driving factor behind the industry belief that they'll take a pitcher, likely a college starter, with their first pick (No. 5 overall) in this June's Rule 4 draft.
This is still a lineup with a chance to be among the best in the league, but if the Royals' pitching prospects don't develop in the next year or two, the club's 27-year playoff drought will continue indefinitely.
The Washington Nationals finally put Ryan Zimmerman on the DL last week after he'd missed several games with a shoulder injury -- and they could be getting him back by the end of this week.
Because Zimmerman, who's out with inflammation in his right shoulder, hasn't played since April 20, his DL time can be retroactive to that date, meaning his 15 days are up this weekend. But will he be ready to play against the Phillies this Sunday?
Zimmerman felt great after playing catch Tuesday, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, and he plans to hit Friday. Without any setbacks or re-aggravation of his injury, the third baseman says he'll be ready to go.
The player and club were able to breathe a sigh of relief when last week's MRI revealed no structural damage.
As for who gets the boot to make room for Zimmerman? While there's always the chance the Nats choose to return Bryce Harper to Triple-A, the most likely candidates would seem to be one of Chad Tracy or Tyler Moore, a rookie who was just called up.
At 12-13, the Oakland A's have probably performed better than most would have expected so far, given that the club traded away key players like Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey in the offseason. Then there's this to consider: Oakland is now 25 games into the season -- which means there's 25 games left until Manny Ramirez can return.
Ramirez, who is serving a 50-game suspension for his violation of MLB's drug policy, is currently playing in extended spring training games.
As ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney writes Wednesday, Ramirez is now halfway through his forced leave.
What sort of impact could Manny have? Olney explains why he can't help but help the A's:
"Nobody really knows how Ramirez will fare, as he tries to come back and play in more than a year. But he certainly can't make the Athletics any worse: Oakland ranks 30th among 30 teams in on-base percentage."
By now you know Bryce Harper -- 19-year-old phenom outfielder, No. 1 overall pick in 2010 -- was promoted to the majors and made his debut Friday night against the Dodgers. The question remains: Is Harper up for good?
Harper took the roster spot of Ryan Zimmerman, who was finally placed on the DL after missing a week's worth of games with inflammation in his shoulder.
The precocious prospect, who doesn't turn 20 until October, is the youngest player currently playing Major League Baseball, but will he spend the rest of 2012 with the big league club or return to Triple-A for further development?
Although Harper's yet to make a real splash with his bat -- the defense has been pretty good, though, as ESPN.com's Jayson Stark writes -- he's looked capable of handling himself in the majors so far.
"This looks to me like a panic move, a reaction to modest attendance figures for the Nats despite their hot start this year, rather than a well thought-out developmental plan, as we've seen the club employ for most of its other prospects. Contrast their adamant statements about keeping Stephen Strasburg on an innings limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery with this seemingly unplanned promotion before Harper can even reach 90 at-bats in Triple-A."
The Red Sox righty, recovering from Tommy John surgery, has already made two of a scheduled five rehab outings in the minors, which puts him on pace to potentially rejoin Boston in mid-to-late May.
What happens when Matsuzaka is ready? Well, things could once again get interesting with the Red Sox rotation. We know Jon Lester and Josh Beckett are locks, but there's a chance that any of the remaining three arms -- Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront -- could be replaced and sent either to the bullpen or even the minors.
Of those three, Buchholz (8.69 ERA) has been the worst, but Bard, whose pitched the best so far, could, of course, return to a relief role easily enough, considering that was his job the past few seasons.
For the first time in in nearly a year, there was a "W" next to Brian Matusz's name in the box score Tuesday.
In his first outing since a quality start last week against the Blue Jays, Matusz held the Yankees to 6 hits and 1 run over 6.1 innings, with a 4:1 K:BB ratio, to earn the victory. What's more, the game was on the road in Yankee Stadium.
What does that mean for the O's lefty? Well, he got his first win since June 6 of last season after pitching his first quality start since Oct. 2 -- of 2010 -- his last time out.
The No. 4 overall pick in the 2008 draft had endured an absolutely brutal stretch in which he lost 12 straight decisions dating back to last season.
Things got so bad that the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly wrote recently the club should consider sending Matusz down to the minors -- and not just Triple-A, but to a level that would allow the one-time prized arm to regain his confidence before it's too late.
After showing increased velocity and improved control in spring training, Matusz began this season 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA after his first three starts. The ERA now sits at 4.67 -- not good, but respectable.
There's still a long way to go, but with a few more positive outings, perhaps Matusz can keep his job in the rotation when Zach Britton is back from injury.
De La Rosa had been throwing all of his pitches, breaking ball and change up included, during simulated games and bullpen sessions over the past month.
Presuming all goes according to plan, the lefty could be back with the Rockies before the All-Star break, and perhaps even sooner.
It's a bit early to worry about who will be bumped from the rotation when De La Rosa is ready to return, but the Denver Post's Troy Renck mentioned that one candidate to be demoted could be Jhoulys Chacin, who has pitched very poorly in the early going. The right-hander, though, still has some time to try to turn things around.
Brett Gardner apparently won't be ready to come off the disabled list when he's eligible Thursday, according to Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger.
The Yankees left fielder, who is recovering from a strained left elbow isn't far from coming back, but the club intends to send him on a minor-league rehab assignment for at least a game, which will put off his return a few more days. Depending on how conservative the Yankees are, we may not see Gardner until early next week.
In Gardner's place, the Yankees have been using a combination of Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez and Eduardo Nunez, who is typically the team's utility infielder. Given the age and limited range of the first two and the inexperience of the third, the club's outfield defense has suffered a bit, so getting Gardner's glove back will be key.
Choo has missed the past six games with a hamstring injury, but he's been progressing in his running drills to the point where manager Manny Acta is confident the outfielder is ready to start.
...
The Cleveland Indians may only be without Shin-Soo Choo for another three days or so, but if the right fielder's hamstring tweak turns out to be more serious and require a DL stint, the club may have to call on newly-signed veteran Johnny Damon a lot sooner than they originally expected.
Skipper Manny Acta shot down the idea that Damon might be fast tracked, which means Jason Donald, an infielder by trade, could see time in the outfield while Choo rests.
Veteran Johnny Damon, who signed with the Indians just last month, will make his 2012 debut Wednesday.
According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, not only will Damon be in left field, he'll also hit leadoff. In fact, manager Manny Acta indicated Damon will occupy the top spot most of the time when he's in the lineup.
Michael Brantley had been handling leadoff duties this season, but Acta said the outfielder will hit in the lower third of the order when Damon plays.
Whether or not Damon is capable of handling regular duty in the outfield -- something he hasn't done since 2009, when he was with the Yankees -- remains to be seen. But with Travis Hafner plugged into the designated hitter spot, we'll find out soon enough.
To make room for Damon, Cleveland cut infielder Jose Lopez.
What can Damon bring to the table for your fantasy teams? Eric Karabell discusses:
- Jason Catania
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Damon brings value
"Damon was more productive last season than you might realize, and he can do it again. Damon hit 16 home runs in 2011 for the Tampa Bay Rays, and stole 19 bases in 25 attempts, giving him a fair amount of fantasy value. Only 14 players boasted the combination of 16 or more home runs and 19 or more stolen bases last season. For instance, Shane Victorino went 17 and 19; Ben Zobrist was 20 and 19. They're better players, but the point is Damon was productive over his 150 games. According to baseball-reference.com, his 2.8 WAR (wins above replacement) ranked sixth among Rays hitters but would have been third on the Tribe. Plus, Damon ranked 67th among all hitters on the ESPN Player Rater, better than such guys as Mark Trumbo, J.J. Hardy, Evan Longoria, Chris Young, Alex Avila and Dan Uggla."
UPDATE: Turns out Morneau's wrist injury doesn't seem to be as serious as first feared. The Twins DH will avoid a trip to the DL, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
An MRI conducted by the doctor who repaired a tendon in Morneau's wrist last October showed no structural damage, and Morneau is expected to rejoin the team Wednesday.
...
The wrist injury that Minnesota 1B/DH Justin Morneau suffered on Monday, forcing him out of the Twins game against the Los Angeles Angels, is a major cause for concern.
As Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press writes today, this is the same wrist that Morneau had surgery on in September to repair tendon damage.
"It's been all right but it's one of those things I was able to deal with and then it got worse over the weekend," Morneau told the newspaper after Monday's game. "Hopefully, it's just scar tissue breaking up. Hopefully, we get the best-case scenario, just stuff breaking up similar to Joe Nathan with his elbow (after Tommy John surgery) last year."
Morneau is scheduled to fly back to the Twin Cities to see a hand specialist today, so we should know more soon about the injury and how long it will keep him out of the lineup. When we do, we'll pass it along.
http://[h3]The Rays without Longoria[/h3]
8:01AM ET
[h5]Tampa Bay Rays [/h5]
The Tampa Bay Rays will have to play without their best hitter for quite a while.
Third baseman Evan Longoria likely will miss 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Longoria had an MRI Tuesday that confirmed the injury and timeframe for return.
The players most likely to get the most action at the hot corner in place of Longoria are Jeff Keppinger and Elliot Johnson. Will Rhymes was also brought up from Triple-A to help add some infield depth.
Remember, the Rays lost Longoria last year for about a month early on, too. They managed to go 15-11 without their star, so it's not as if the club, currently 16-8 and in first place in the AL East, can't tread water at the very least until Longoria is back.
A month may not seem like a long time in baseball, but it's long enough to dig a hole. Projections are valuable tools, but they never stand still, as new information about players and teams is added with each game that's played. In the ZiPS preseason projections, the Philadelphia Phillies just edged out the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, with the Washington Nationals a little farther back and the New York Mets safely in the cellar.
Even after a couple dozen games, enough has happened in the National League East to turn the division upside down.
To calculate the rest of the season's games, the same Monte Carlo methods used to project the seasonal standings back in March were used, but the standings have been updated with new projections for each player and the win-loss records that are "in the bag" already. With April complete, here's how the new NL East projections look:
[h4]Updated NL East projections[/h4]
After the first month of the season, here's how ZiPS projects the NL East to finish in 2012.
[th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
Division
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Preseason Division
[/th][th=""]
Preseason Playoffs
[/th]
The Braves were ZiPS's preseason pick to finish second in the division, just behind Philadelphia. But with a 14-9 record and the Phillies limping, ZiPS now thinks Atlanta is the team to beat in the division. Jair Jurrjens has done enough damage to send his projected rest-of-season ERA up to 4.20 from his preseason 3.81 -- doubling your walk rate and striking out four batters a game has a funny way of doing that -- but the Braves possess enough pitching depth to allow Jurrjens to work through his issues in the minors.
Tim Hudson appears healthy, and getting him back is a major boon in this department. The offense should remain solid, with Michael Bourn the only one really playing at an unsustainable level. If you were bullish on the Braves last month, there's no reason to change gears now.
No team in the division has done more to help itself this season than the first-place Nats. While Stephen Strasburg's durability in the long haul is still a question, his post-Tommy John performance isn't. These projections were made with the expectation that the Nats keep Bryce Harper in the big leagues, and even with ZiPS not expecting him to be a star quite yet (projected line for rest of the season: .240/.319/.401), he's a solid improvement over Rick Ankiel (rest-of-season ZiPS line of .232 AVG/.291 OBP/.387 SLG) and Roger Bernadina (.234/.298/.363).
ZiPS projects a great deal of regression from Ross Detwiler -- his FIP well more than a run higher compared to his ERA, and he doesn't have much of a resume of success starting, but he's looking less and less like a potential disaster. In the lead by a half-game at the moment, Washington now has to play only within six games of the Marlins and 3.5 of the Phillies to finish no worse than second in the division.
Every time I ask ZiPS to project the Phillies, they end up coming out a little worse. The pitchers not named Joe Blanton are pitching as well as you would expect the pitchers not named Joe Blanton to be pitching, with Cole Hamels the worst of the front four with a 2.73 ERA. However, when your team is hitting .247/.293/.347, it's hard to win a competitive division no matter how good the pitching is. Ty Wigginton has been surprisingly good at first base, but lineups that feature Wigginton, Juan Pierre, Laynce Nix and even Pete Orr typically don't challenge for a playoff spot.
Throw in Freddy Galvis, a serviceable utility guy forced to start, and the hitting portion of the box scores has looked like something more akin to what you see in a Grapefruit League game or from replacement players during a strike. The Phillies aren't completely dead in the water, as there's been good news for a change in the recoveries of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins can't possibly be this bad, but the team's still in its weakest position in years.
Perhaps Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen should make more controversial comments to distract for a few more days from how poorly Miami is playing. Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton will end the season with significantly better stats than they currently have, but in a very competitive division, six games is a lot to spot. Even if you think the Marlins, from here on out, are three games better than any other team in the division, that wouldn't be enough to get them into the playoffs. Unfortunately, there's no luck deity out there, pulling the string to make sure each team gets its correct share of hot and cold streaks.
ZiPS views the Mets as a bit of a mirage this season, still seeing them as the worst team in the division, though not completely hopeless thanks to their surprising start. The team is being outscored by almost a run a game, so it hasn't really played at a 13-10 level this season. On the plus side, the projections for Johan Santana have improved; Santana was originally projected to put up a 3.56 ERA in 91 innings, and now ZiPS has him up to 3.14 ERA for the season in 109 innings. Perhaps the toughest issue the Mets have to deal with now is David Wright.
Even if the team trading for him loses the option year, thus making him less valuable, New York is not really in a position that it can turn down a good offer. After his best start ever, Wright's rest-of-season projection is up to .280/.367/.464, as a lot of questions surrounding his health have at least been told to shut up for the moment. Even with the settlement with Bernie Madoff trustee Irving Picard, the franchise doesn't look like it will be able to make any splashy investments in the near term. A good start that convinces ownership to stand pat may be worse overall for the franchise than a bad start.
Next moves for the Dodgers.
Spoiler [+]
The Frank McCourt era in Dodgers history is over, writes Bill Shaikin. There will be a news conference today, where the group led by Mark Walter, Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson will be introduced, as the new leaders of one of baseball's crown-jewel franchises.
There is a whole lot of work ahead for these guys, as they decide how to renovate Dodger Stadium, improve the fan experience and delve into other ways to monetize their investment.
That will include a conversation about how to make the team better on the field -- and keep in mind, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been pretty good so far, with more wins than any other National League team and a four-game lead in the NL West.
The Dodgers figure to be aggressive in the trade market before the July 31 deadline, maybe adding to their lineup or to their pitching staff. But the increased financial flexibility general manager Ned Colletti will have going forward doesn't necessarily mean Los Angeles can make deals, because you need to match up well with another team, and you have to have the tradable assets to complete a move.
They almost certainly will grow their payroll going into next season; it's only at $90 million for this 2012 season, slashed by about 25 to percent in recent years, and can easily increase into the range for the superpower franchises. This is good news for players who might test the market in the fall, such as Cole Hamels, Miguel Montero, Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton.
The first real change you probably will see in how the Dodgers run their baseball operations, according to industry sources, is in their participation in the market for Latin American players.
For years, the Dodgers were MLB leaders in this, reaching agreements with players like Roberto Clemente, and signing and developing players in the Dominican Republic, from Pedro Guerrero to the Martinez brothers, Ramon and Pedro. But during McCourt's time as owner, the Dodgers basically stopped participating in Latin America. Under the new rules negotiated by MLB and the union, teams are limited to spending $2.9 million annually in this market -- and that's probably more than the Dodgers spent during McCourt's tenure.
Kasten, if you remember, was part of an Atlanta Braves organization that became a model for player development, so you can bet he would love to restore the Dodgers to their prior standing of preeminence in this area.
Changes are coming, and maybe the first people who will feel the ripples of that will be in Venezuela, or the Dominican, or Mexico, or Colombia.
The call for McCourt closure has finally been answered, writes Tom Hoffarth.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Manny Ramirez is about halfway through his 50-game suspension, and the Oakland Athletics are expected to activate Ramirez when he's first eligible to play on May 30. During the last 10 days of his suspension, he is permitted to play for minor league affiliates.
Nobody really knows how Ramirez will fare, as he tries to come back and play for the first time in more than a year. But he certainly can't make the Athletics any worse: Oakland ranks 30th among 30 teams in on-base percentage.
Here's the good news: The Nationals' pitching continues to be superlative. Consider this statistic, which was dug out through a request to ESPN's Katie Sharp and the Elias Sports Bureau: The Nationals allowed a total of six homers in April, which was less than a handful of individual pitchers, most notably the Angels' Ervin Santana, who allowed 10. The last time a team finished April with fewer homers allowed than individual pitchers was in 1997, and that team was the Atlanta Braves, of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, et al.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Cahill beat the Nationals:
A) Cahill relied on his changeup to neutralize Nationals lefties, especially Harper. Cahill threw eight changeups to Harper and 11 combined to the other four lefties in the lineup. Harper missed on three of his four swings against Cahill's changeup, including a strikeout; he had seen only six changeups in his first two games (zero swings and misses). B) Cahill started 22 of 28 hitters with a first-pitch strike (78.6 percent), his second-highest percentage in 101 career starts. C) Cahill recorded 20 of his 22 outs via strikeouts or ground balls. His 15 ground-ball outs are the second most of his career.
[h4]Facing the change[/h4]
MLB players who have seen the highest percentage of changeups this season (qualified hitters only).
>>Bryce Harper: 28.6 percent changeups in three games
[th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
Percentage
[/th]
• From ESPN Stats & Info: Pitchers have not waited to attack Harper's reported weakness: changeups. While it's been only three games, Harper has seen a TON of changeups; in fact, he's seen changeups about three out of every 10 pitches. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, that would easily rank as the highest rate in the majors.
Harper is taking Washington by storm, writes Amanda Comak.
• Buck Showalter picked up win No. 1,000, and Brian Matusz ended a winless streak, as Dan Connolly writes.
• The St. Louis Cardinals are retiring Tony La Russa's No. 10. As it should be.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. There has been no recent progress in the Phillies' contract talks with Cole Hamels. The market has defined the price tag for Hamels, with the Matt Cain extension of five years and $112.5 million being the bottom floor, and with each passing day -- as Hamels draws closer to free agency -- the price tag for the Phillies goes up. Sources affiliated with the players' union are confident that Hamels will get contract offers of six years this fall if he were to file for free agency.
9. Johnny Damon is expected to be the leadoff hitter.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. If all goes well, Carl Crawford could get the green light to throw in about 10 days, and he could be back in about seven weeks.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how he lost against the White Sox:
[h4]Lowering the heat[/h4]
Tracking the decline of Ubaldo Jimenez's fastball velocity and overall strikeout rate in the last three seasons.
2012
91.8
10.5%
2011
93.2
21.9%
2010
95.9
23.9%
[th=""]
Season
[/th][th=""]
Avg. FB (mph)
[/th][th=""]
K Rate
[/th]
A) Jimenez didn't induce a single swing-and-miss until his 92nd pitch. He finished with just three, tied for his fewest in 153 career starts. He had only one strikeout, which is also a career low. B) White Sox hitters swung at just six of Jimenez's 58 pitches that were out of the strike zone (10.3 percent). That's the second-lowest chase percentage against Jimenez since 2009. Opponents are chasing 17.8 percent of Jimenez's pitches out of the zone this season, the lowest rate among MLB starters. C) Jimenez started 11 of 28 hitters with a first-pitch strike (39.3 percent), his fourth-lowest percentage since 2009. He tied a career high with six walks, all of which came after he started the hitter with a first-pitch ball. He leads the majors with 20 walks in 28 2/3 innings this season.
As you can see, this follows the trend -- his fastball velocity has steadily declined, and his strikeout rate has gone with it (see chart).
From ESPN Stats & Info: Lawrie, who is the only player born in the 1990s to hit a walk-off home run, is one of three active players to hit multiple walk-off homers before turning 23 years old. The others: Carl Crawford and Ryan Zimmerman (three times).
8. The Marlins got out of Miami and got a win behind Ricky Nolasco, as Joe Capozzi writes. Heath Bell will remain the Marlins' closer for now, and he got the save Tuesday night, as Juan Rodriguez writes.
3: Seconds it took for Pablo Sandoval's home run to leave AT&T Park, the fastest ball that left that park this year. 29: Hitless at-bats for Nick Johnson this season prior to his double Tuesday. 3,221: Days Jerome Williams went between complete games from 2003 to Tuesday.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Albert Pujols has now gone 96 at-bats without a home run this season, the second-most in a single season in his career (he went 105 at-bats last year).
From Elias: Pujols' homerless streak is the third-longest streak to start a season by a player who had at least 400 career home runs entering the seasons. Only Eddie Murray (109 in 1996) and Ken Griffey Jr. (98 in 2010) had longer streaks.
Five future No. 1 starters.
Spoiler [+]
With Bryce Harper and Mike Trout getting the call to the big leagues, Dylan Bundy is now the official engineer of the prospect hype train, and with good reason. The 19-year-old began the season with 13 no-hit innings and has struck out 25 of the 52 batters he has faced for low Class A Delmarva (Orioles), while allowing just three to reach base. This performance has produced the inevitable questions, especially on Twitter, regarding whether or not Bundy can become a No. 1 starter. However, becoming a No. 1 starter takes more than just stuff and command. It takes something that is more than a bit ineffable.
To be clear, "No. 1 starter" is a scouting/industry term, not a slot in the rotation. There were plenty of No. 3 starters taking the bump on Opening Day. There are 10 or fewer No. 1 starters in baseball. It takes stuff and command, but also durability, consistency and that extra something else.
"The label is the ultimate of the ultimate, and there's nothing wrong with a strict standard," an American League executive said. "I never project a prospect as anything more than a No. 2 starter for a reason. You're not a No. 1 until you actually prove over a period of time that you are a No. 1 in the big leagues. You cannot be anointed by a scouting report."
An AL scout echoed that sentiment: "The radar gun can't tell you who is going to be a No. 1. We envision guys in the mid-90s with crippling breaking balls and physicality, but at the end of the day, guys like Justin Verlander or Pedro Martinez become No. 1's at the major league level. Until you are pitching in the big leagues and putting away Cabrera and Fielder back-to-back, you're not a No. 1."
As for the extra component, people in the industry have trouble explaining it, but they know it when they see it.
"No. 1 guys are the guy where every time they take the mound, you feel you are going to win," another executive explained. "Every time out, you are going to get a defined area of performance. Good starters will give you average starts half of the time, and then be really good 25 percent of the time and bad the other 25 percent. A No. 1 is giving you 50 percent elite starts, 25 percent really good and 25 percent average. When you see Verlander get hit hard by the Yankees, you know he's going to deal the next time out. That's a No. 1. When you see Sabathia going late in the season for the Brewers on three days rest and pitching them into the playoffs, that's a No. 1. Most starters can't do that."
So while Bundy certainly has the makings for being a No. 1, he's far from joining that exclusive club.
"The hyperbole is justified," said a scout who has seen Bundy since his high school days. "His stuff and makeup are off the chart, and what he's doing to start a professional career might be unprecedented. But it's a long journey from Delmarva to No. 1."
Not only are No. 1 starters rare, but so are prospects with even the chances to even be a No. 1 starter. When asked how many potential No. 1's are in the minor leagues, the answers ranged from five to 15.
"There have been plenty of guys who looked like No. 1 starters in the minors or in the draft, and we've ended up with far more three, four, five starters or relievers than ones," said a National League exec.
"Whoever takes [Stanford right-hander] Mark Appel in June is going to have a press conference, and they are going to say he has a good chances to be a No. 1 starter," added an American League assistant GM. "And he does. But if we only have 10 or so of them in the big leagues, what really are the chances?"
Understanding the rarity and the unlikeliness that any pitcher will become a No. 1 starter, here are five pitching prospects who the industry sees as having the best chance, ranked in order of likelihood of becoming bona fide aces.
[h3]1. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners (Double-A Jackson)[/h3]
For many in the industry, Bundy's performance hasn't even been the most impressive by a pitcher in the minors. Consider Walker, who has a 1.64 ERA in four starts while striking out 26 in 22 innings and limiting the Southern League to a .203 batting average. Those numbers certainly aren't as gaudy as Bundy's, but Walker is doing it at Double-A, and he's just three months older than the Orioles' prize pitcher.
With a 92-97 mph fastball, mid-70s curveball and impressive changeup, Walker certainly has the stuff to be a No. 1 starter, and his ability to dominate at such a young age says something about his makeup as well.
"Every pitch he throws comes out of the same slot, and it's just impossible to pick up," a National League scout said. "He's like a poor man's Doc Gooden -- he's really out of that mold."
[h3]2. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (Low-A Delmarva)[/h3]
Bundy's numbers have been well documented, but the 6-1, 195-pounder also has No. 1 stuff with an upper-90s fastball and a curveball and changeup that are both already above-average offerings.
"When you think about future No. 1 starters, Bundy is the guy who has a real chance," an American League scouting director said.
That belief was universal, but an American League executive was sure to point out that with just 17 innings of pro experience, there is still plenty that we don't know.
"Bundy is obviously ridiculous, but there are things he is still going to go through," the exec explained. "He's going to get punched in the face, and nobody knows what a guy's makeup is until they fail."
The problem that Baltimore faces, according to the exec, is that it can't force that failure.
"Bundy is not going to get touched in Low-A," he said. "Short of starting him at Double- or Triple-A, there is now way to artificially create that challenge."
[h3]3. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Low-A South Bend)[/h3]
No 2011 draft pick has already done more to boost his stock in the past year than Bradley, who was taken seventh overall. From stunning showings in instructs and spring training to a five-start stint in the low Class A Midwest League in which he's allowed just eight hits in 26 innings while striking out 30, Bradley has shown the rare combination of elite velocity and sink to go with a curveball that earns just as much praise. And at 6-4, 225, he certainly looks the part of a No. 1 starter.
"I'd actually take him over Bundy," an American League scout said. "He's the more traditional physical package you look for in a future ace."
[h3]4. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (High-A Bradenton)[/h3]
Coming off his best start as a professional on Monday when he allowed one hit in six shutout innings high Class A Bradenton, Cole has a 3.54 ERA in five starts and 29 strikeouts in 23 innings, but his stuff is still way ahead of his numbers.
"People forget that this guy throws 100 mph every time out and has two plus offerings behind it," said a National League scout. "If he figures out how to harness everything, he could be as good as any of them."
[h3]5. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates (High-A Bradenton)[/h3]
The Pirates have focused on pitching with their top picks of late, and Taillon, who stands at 6-6, 225, has begun to dominate following a 2011 season during which the Pirates often tied one hand behind his back by forcing him to go without his plus-plus breaking pitches. With the training wheels finally off, Cole's Bradenton teammate has a 1.46 ERA with 28 strikeouts and just four walks in 24 2/3 innings.
"From the body to the frame to the delivery to the stuff to the command, I'm not sure there's another guy who can check off as many boxes when it comes to finding a future No. 1 starter," said a National League scout.
What went wrong for the Royals?
Spoiler [+]
It's well-documented that the Kansas City Royals have struggled for much of the past two decades, but 2012 was supposed to be different in the eyes of many observers. A trip to the playoffs was never realistically in the cards, but because of a promising young nucleus, it was easy to envision an improvement on last year's 71-91 record and possible contention in 2013.
Yet on May 1, the Royals are 6-15 after losing 12 straight games near the end of April, and many folks are wondering what exactly happened to all that optimism surrounding the team. The good news for Kansas City fans is that some of these tough times can be chalked up to bad luck; however, there are other issues that won't be as easy to fix.
The Royals' biggest problem so far this season is that their best hitter, Eric Hosmer, has been unlucky despite a lot of hard-hit balls, including a .164 batting average on balls in play that's around half of what it's likely to be the rest of the year. He's put a lot of balls in play to the opposite field because he has a habit of landing his feet slightly open and pulling off the ball, which isn't new but looks like it's happening a little more than it did previously. Hosmer is strong enough to do that and still hit doubles and home runs to left-center if he's not hitting the ball right at someone. He's walking and hitting for power, so if he can just get that front foot down more in line with his back foot, more of those hard-hit balls to left should end up as hits.
As a team, the Royals are slugging about 60 points higher with the bases empty than with men in scoring position, random variation that doesn't indicate any particular lack of skill but should normalize throughout the season.
Of course, it hasn't helped that manager Ned Yost can't seem to fill out a lineup card without suffering a severe brain cramp. In the leadoff spot, Yost has used Chris Getz (.315 career OBP), Yuniesky Betancourt (.292), Jason Bourgeois (.307) or rookie Jarrod Dyson in half the Royals' games. Yost has even hit Alcides Escobar, who came into the season with a .294 career OBP in nearly 1,300 plate appearances, second three times. Lineup construction isn't a huge factor in any team's offensive performance, but there is some small impact from keeping your out machines at the bottom of the lineup so that someone is getting on base in front of Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Hosmer. Yost's lineup lunacy bottomed out on April 23 when Getz, who shouldn't be in any major league team's lineup, sacrificed with a man on second and no outs, a situation in which a successful sacrifice actually reduces the team's run expectancy for the inning. (The runner didn't score.) If your No. 2 hitter isn't good enough for you to let him swing away with a man on second and nobody out, he's not good enough to be your No. 2 hitter, period.
Assuming Yost can figure out where to put his deadweight in the lineup, a little better luck for Hosmer & Co. should put the Royals in the top half of the American League in runs scored.
Things don't look as promising on the other side of the ball. Greg Holland, the ace of last year's bullpen, has been lit up by left-handed hitters this year in a minuscule sample, mostly by leaving fastballs and sliders up in the zone; he's thrown six splitters all year (per Bloomberg Sports), only one for a strike, a ground ball to first hit by Maicer Izturis. We're likely seeing nothing but statistical noise here, but perhaps Holland would be better off if he could keep left-handers from sitting on that straight four-seamer. Losing Joakim Soria to injury hurt, but replacing 60 innings of his performance isn't as big as replacing a league-average starter, and Aaron Crow and Jonathan Broxton should fill that gap. I doubt we'll be talking about the Royals' offense or bullpen in October when dissecting what went wrong for this team.
That leaves the one area that even folks (including me) who were generally optimistic about the club acknowledged was their main weakness: Their rotation just isn't good enough.
The team's most promising major league starter at this point is Danny Duffy, who has shown increased velocity so far this year and missed his last start with a sore elbow. After a promising side session on Sunday, he's expected to make his next start, but a velocity spike plus immediate arm soreness is a dangerous sign. Speaking anecdotally, it seems we often hear about a pitcher throwing harder than ever right before something goes "snap!" (Nick Hagadone has always stood out as one such example for me.) Duffy was hitting 97 mph regularly before the injury, but his slider was harder and he had better action on the changeup, as well. If he's healthy, he could be a big part of a turnaround this year, but pushing him too hard this year could cost the Royals significantly more in the long term if there's really something wrong with his arm. The Royals' problem is that Duffy is the one guy here who could put in a well above league-average performance; you're not getting that from Bruce Chen's smoke-and-mirrors act (more mirrors this year, less smoke), or from Luke Hochevar, who doesn't have the stuff to miss enough bats or limit homers to let him pitch like a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.
Dropping Luis Mendoza (6.00 ERA, 0.55 K/BB ratio) from the rotation is an obvious move, and Jonathan Sanchez (6.75, 0.76) isn't far behind, but the upper levels of Kansas City's farm system don't offer a ton of immediate help. Lefty Mike Montgomery should be next in line for the call, but after a brutal spring and two rough starts to begin the season, he's had two solid outings, hardly enough to justify recalling him (especially because he struggled most of last year, as well). Right-hander Jake Odorizzi, the only viable option at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, still has work to do with his off-speed stuff, and rushing him to the majors isn't going to help him or the club. That lack of depth probably will hold this team back all season, and it's also a driving factor behind the industry belief that they'll take a pitcher, likely a college starter, with their first pick (No. 5 overall) in this June's Rule 4 draft.
This is still a lineup with a chance to be among the best in the league, but if the Royals' pitching prospects don't develop in the next year or two, the club's 27-year playoff drought will continue indefinitely.
The Washington Nationals finally put Ryan Zimmerman on the DL last week after he'd missed several games with a shoulder injury -- and they could be getting him back by the end of this week.
Because Zimmerman, who's out with inflammation in his right shoulder, hasn't played since April 20, his DL time can be retroactive to that date, meaning his 15 days are up this weekend. But will he be ready to play against the Phillies this Sunday?
Zimmerman felt great after playing catch Tuesday, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, and he plans to hit Friday. Without any setbacks or re-aggravation of his injury, the third baseman says he'll be ready to go.
The player and club were able to breathe a sigh of relief when last week's MRI revealed no structural damage.
As for who gets the boot to make room for Zimmerman? While there's always the chance the Nats choose to return Bryce Harper to Triple-A, the most likely candidates would seem to be one of Chad Tracy or Tyler Moore, a rookie who was just called up.
At 12-13, the Oakland A's have probably performed better than most would have expected so far, given that the club traded away key players like Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey in the offseason. Then there's this to consider: Oakland is now 25 games into the season -- which means there's 25 games left until Manny Ramirez can return.
Ramirez, who is serving a 50-game suspension for his violation of MLB's drug policy, is currently playing in extended spring training games.
As ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney writes Wednesday, Ramirez is now halfway through his forced leave.
What sort of impact could Manny have? Olney explains why he can't help but help the A's:
"Nobody really knows how Ramirez will fare, as he tries to come back and play in more than a year. But he certainly can't make the Athletics any worse: Oakland ranks 30th among 30 teams in on-base percentage."
By now you know Bryce Harper -- 19-year-old phenom outfielder, No. 1 overall pick in 2010 -- was promoted to the majors and made his debut Friday night against the Dodgers. The question remains: Is Harper up for good?
Harper took the roster spot of Ryan Zimmerman, who was finally placed on the DL after missing a week's worth of games with inflammation in his shoulder.
The precocious prospect, who doesn't turn 20 until October, is the youngest player currently playing Major League Baseball, but will he spend the rest of 2012 with the big league club or return to Triple-A for further development?
Although Harper's yet to make a real splash with his bat -- the defense has been pretty good, though, as ESPN.com's Jayson Stark writes -- he's looked capable of handling himself in the majors so far.
"This looks to me like a panic move, a reaction to modest attendance figures for the Nats despite their hot start this year, rather than a well thought-out developmental plan, as we've seen the club employ for most of its other prospects. Contrast their adamant statements about keeping Stephen Strasburg on an innings limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery with this seemingly unplanned promotion before Harper can even reach 90 at-bats in Triple-A."
The Red Sox righty, recovering from Tommy John surgery, has already made two of a scheduled five rehab outings in the minors, which puts him on pace to potentially rejoin Boston in mid-to-late May.
What happens when Matsuzaka is ready? Well, things could once again get interesting with the Red Sox rotation. We know Jon Lester and Josh Beckett are locks, but there's a chance that any of the remaining three arms -- Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront -- could be replaced and sent either to the bullpen or even the minors.
Of those three, Buchholz (8.69 ERA) has been the worst, but Bard, whose pitched the best so far, could, of course, return to a relief role easily enough, considering that was his job the past few seasons.
For the first time in in nearly a year, there was a "W" next to Brian Matusz's name in the box score Tuesday.
In his first outing since a quality start last week against the Blue Jays, Matusz held the Yankees to 6 hits and 1 run over 6.1 innings, with a 4:1 K:BB ratio, to earn the victory. What's more, the game was on the road in Yankee Stadium.
What does that mean for the O's lefty? Well, he got his first win since June 6 of last season after pitching his first quality start since Oct. 2 -- of 2010 -- his last time out.
The No. 4 overall pick in the 2008 draft had endured an absolutely brutal stretch in which he lost 12 straight decisions dating back to last season.
Things got so bad that the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly wrote recently the club should consider sending Matusz down to the minors -- and not just Triple-A, but to a level that would allow the one-time prized arm to regain his confidence before it's too late.
After showing increased velocity and improved control in spring training, Matusz began this season 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA after his first three starts. The ERA now sits at 4.67 -- not good, but respectable.
There's still a long way to go, but with a few more positive outings, perhaps Matusz can keep his job in the rotation when Zach Britton is back from injury.
De La Rosa had been throwing all of his pitches, breaking ball and change up included, during simulated games and bullpen sessions over the past month.
Presuming all goes according to plan, the lefty could be back with the Rockies before the All-Star break, and perhaps even sooner.
It's a bit early to worry about who will be bumped from the rotation when De La Rosa is ready to return, but the Denver Post's Troy Renck mentioned that one candidate to be demoted could be Jhoulys Chacin, who has pitched very poorly in the early going. The right-hander, though, still has some time to try to turn things around.
Brett Gardner apparently won't be ready to come off the disabled list when he's eligible Thursday, according to Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger.
The Yankees left fielder, who is recovering from a strained left elbow isn't far from coming back, but the club intends to send him on a minor-league rehab assignment for at least a game, which will put off his return a few more days. Depending on how conservative the Yankees are, we may not see Gardner until early next week.
In Gardner's place, the Yankees have been using a combination of Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez and Eduardo Nunez, who is typically the team's utility infielder. Given the age and limited range of the first two and the inexperience of the third, the club's outfield defense has suffered a bit, so getting Gardner's glove back will be key.
Choo has missed the past six games with a hamstring injury, but he's been progressing in his running drills to the point where manager Manny Acta is confident the outfielder is ready to start.
...
The Cleveland Indians may only be without Shin-Soo Choo for another three days or so, but if the right fielder's hamstring tweak turns out to be more serious and require a DL stint, the club may have to call on newly-signed veteran Johnny Damon a lot sooner than they originally expected.
Skipper Manny Acta shot down the idea that Damon might be fast tracked, which means Jason Donald, an infielder by trade, could see time in the outfield while Choo rests.
Veteran Johnny Damon, who signed with the Indians just last month, will make his 2012 debut Wednesday.
According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, not only will Damon be in left field, he'll also hit leadoff. In fact, manager Manny Acta indicated Damon will occupy the top spot most of the time when he's in the lineup.
Michael Brantley had been handling leadoff duties this season, but Acta said the outfielder will hit in the lower third of the order when Damon plays.
Whether or not Damon is capable of handling regular duty in the outfield -- something he hasn't done since 2009, when he was with the Yankees -- remains to be seen. But with Travis Hafner plugged into the designated hitter spot, we'll find out soon enough.
To make room for Damon, Cleveland cut infielder Jose Lopez.
What can Damon bring to the table for your fantasy teams? Eric Karabell discusses:
- Jason Catania
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Damon brings value
"Damon was more productive last season than you might realize, and he can do it again. Damon hit 16 home runs in 2011 for the Tampa Bay Rays, and stole 19 bases in 25 attempts, giving him a fair amount of fantasy value. Only 14 players boasted the combination of 16 or more home runs and 19 or more stolen bases last season. For instance, Shane Victorino went 17 and 19; Ben Zobrist was 20 and 19. They're better players, but the point is Damon was productive over his 150 games. According to baseball-reference.com, his 2.8 WAR (wins above replacement) ranked sixth among Rays hitters but would have been third on the Tribe. Plus, Damon ranked 67th among all hitters on the ESPN Player Rater, better than such guys as Mark Trumbo, J.J. Hardy, Evan Longoria, Chris Young, Alex Avila and Dan Uggla."
UPDATE: Turns out Morneau's wrist injury doesn't seem to be as serious as first feared. The Twins DH will avoid a trip to the DL, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
An MRI conducted by the doctor who repaired a tendon in Morneau's wrist last October showed no structural damage, and Morneau is expected to rejoin the team Wednesday.
...
The wrist injury that Minnesota 1B/DH Justin Morneau suffered on Monday, forcing him out of the Twins game against the Los Angeles Angels, is a major cause for concern.
As Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press writes today, this is the same wrist that Morneau had surgery on in September to repair tendon damage.
"It's been all right but it's one of those things I was able to deal with and then it got worse over the weekend," Morneau told the newspaper after Monday's game. "Hopefully, it's just scar tissue breaking up. Hopefully, we get the best-case scenario, just stuff breaking up similar to Joe Nathan with his elbow (after Tommy John surgery) last year."
Morneau is scheduled to fly back to the Twin Cities to see a hand specialist today, so we should know more soon about the injury and how long it will keep him out of the lineup. When we do, we'll pass it along.
http://[h3]The Rays without Longoria[/h3]
8:01AM ET
[h5]Tampa Bay Rays [/h5]
The Tampa Bay Rays will have to play without their best hitter for quite a while.
Third baseman Evan Longoria likely will miss 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Longoria had an MRI Tuesday that confirmed the injury and timeframe for return.
The players most likely to get the most action at the hot corner in place of Longoria are Jeff Keppinger and Elliot Johnson. Will Rhymes was also brought up from Triple-A to help add some infield depth.
Remember, the Rays lost Longoria last year for about a month early on, too. They managed to go 15-11 without their star, so it's not as if the club, currently 16-8 and in first place in the AL East, can't tread water at the very least until Longoria is back.
IDGAF if it was babe ruth or reggie jackson........you batting .208 for the season, you`re either on the bench or batting 7th till you figure out your issue.
Pac, did you watch the game last night? It was good to see Wainwright get his first win, but the bullpen ##$+ the bed and almost gave the game back to Pittsburgh.
I know he's having somewhat of a resurgance offensively, are the Mets still looking to dump David Wright?
Help Wanted: 1b and 3b that can actually hit.
I know he's having somewhat of a resurgance offensively, are the Mets still looking to dump David Wright?
Help Wanted: 1b and 3b that can actually hit.
I was just coming in to mention how much I am starting to like this LaHair kid, then I see this.
If Theo thinks Rizzo is our future, then I would be ok with getting even more pieces for LaHair, but I would rather move Rizzo if LaHair is proving to be legit.
I was just coming in to mention how much I am starting to like this LaHair kid, then I see this.
If Theo thinks Rizzo is our future, then I would be ok with getting even more pieces for LaHair, but I would rather move Rizzo if LaHair is proving to be legit.
