The field of contending teams narrows by the day, with more and more executives focusing on the offseason to come, on the free agents and trade targets they might pursue.
Some talent evaluators believe that a very prominent player could be on the move, and if he does, it would be landscape-altering, in the way it was when the Brewers traded for Zack Greinke, in the way it was when the Athletics traded Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder in the same winter.
The trade value of David Price will never be higher than it will be this winter, and given the Rays' need to constantly manage payroll, there will financial incentive for Tampa Bay to flip Price for prospects now. Unlike Evan Longoria, James Shields and Matt Moore, Price did not sign a long-term team-friendly deal, and he is about to become a very expensive player.
Price's salary for this year is $4.35 million, and he'll finish this season with three years and 164 days of service time. If he wins the Cy Young Award -- and he's got a legitimate shot -- he could get bumped, through arbitration, into the $10 million range. If not, Price's best comparable could be Jered Weaver, who, in a similar stage in his career, jumped from $4.265 million to $7.37 million, after a defeat in arbitration.
An $8 million salary for Price may not sound like much, but keep in mind that the Rays' payroll this year was about $62 million; Price would account for almost 15 percent of that.
And in 2014 and beyond, Price will get really expensive, far beyond what the team that drafted and developed him can practically afford.
There will be a day when the Rays trade him.
Tampa Bay will do with Price this winter what they have done with Matt Garza and James Shields and others before him: Because they have enough starting pitching to contend, they must weigh the costs and benefits of keeping him against the possible packages of young players they would get in return for a dominant left-hander who just turned 27.
They would get extraordinary offers, because Price is a game-changer.
Some of the teams that could be a fit for a Price deal with Tampa Bay, which needs middle-of-the-diamond help catcher, shortstop, center field, second base.
Texas Rangers: Texas has a surplus of shortstops, and the wide expectation is that Elvis Andrus is going to be traded this winter. Andrus wouldn't really fit the Rays, because he's about to get very expensive, but Jurickson Profar would, and presumably, he would be the first player Tampa Bay would ask for. If Texas said no on Profar, it remains to be seen whether the Rays would find a suitable package.
San Diego Padres: They have a lot of depth in their farm system, they have a new and committed ownership, and they are one dominant starter away from being serious players in the NL West. Price could be that guy.
Cincinnati Reds: GM Walt Jocketty demonstrated last winter that he will be aggressive for a frontline starting pitcher, in his acquisition of Mat Latos, and Price would be a staggering addition. The Rays have had interest in catcher Ryan Hanigan in the past, if he was involved in a Price deal, he would be window-dressing; there would have to be a major prospect centerpiece to the trade.
St. Louis Cardinals: They've got some prospects to deal, and Kyle Lohse is set to walk. A rotation core of a recovered Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Price would be extraordinary.
Kansas City Royals: They'll be aggressively seeking a rotation leader this winter, an anchor, and the addition of Price would change their 2013 outlook dramatically. But in order to get the left-hander, the cost in prospects would make the Royals' front office wince. It's hard to imagine the Rays even considering a deal unless one of K.C.'s best talents -- outfielder Wil Myers, catcher Salvador Perez (who just signed a team-friendly contract), third baseman Mike Moustakas or first baseman Eric Hosmer -- was in the trade.
Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays need catching, and the Blue Jays have catching, and a glaring need for a front-of-the-rotation starter.
Chicago Cubs: They wouldn't seem to be a good fit for a deal, because they're a couple of years away from contending and trading a boatload of prospects for Price now would almost seem like a waste in 2013 and 2014. On the other hand, access to a talent like Price is rare, and if they traded for him and signed him to a long-term deal, he could be a staff leader for years to come.
The Red Sox and Yankees could theoretically be in play, but it would be extraordinarily difficult for the Rays to hand a Cy Young caliber pitcher to a division rival, and Tampa Bay would probably require Boston and New York to overpay, which neither team is typically willing to do.
Again, it's really not a question of whether Tampa Bay will trade the left-hander; it's only a question of timing among the three most likely windows -- this winter, next summer, or in the winter of 2013-2014.
---
The Rays have collapsed over the last 10 days, but they pulled out a great win on Thursday. They are nearing a strikeout record, as well.
From ESPN Stats & Information, how Price threw well against the Red Sox Thursday, lowering his ERA to 2.58:
A) Price got four outs using his curveball, giving him 11 curveball outs in his last two starts; Price had 20 curveball outs in his 10 prior starts. In his last two starts, half of the curveballs Price has thrown have been pitches outside the strike zone that batters have swung at. Batters don't have a hit or a walk against his curve in that time.
B) The anemic Red Sox lineup was unable to elevate the ball against Price, who hit 15 of 24 balls put in play on the ground (65.2 percent). It's the sixth time this season ground balls have made up 60 percent of balls put in play against Price; the Rays are 5-1 in those six games, and the loss was a 1-0 game.
C) Price got ahead 0-1 to 19 of the 31 batters he faced. After he got to an 0-1 count, he gave up just two singles on 64 pitches. Price continues to be one of the best pitchers in the AL after he gets to 0-1. He has allowed an average of just .182 when he does.
Notables
• The Angels' playoff hopes are almost completely wrecked after another ninth-inning defeat; Ernesto Frieri allowed a decisive two-run homer, as Bill Plunkett writes.
Scioscia may be just one in a large group of managers with long resumes who could be in play, if the Angels decide to make a change. Consider some others...
- Bobby Valentine: 16 years as a manager, 1,185 victories-1,154 losses
- Ozzie Guillen: nine years as a manager, 744-701
- Dusty Baker, whose contract is set to expire: 19 years, 1,574-1,426
- Jim Leyland: 21 years, 1,667-1,654
(- Scioscia: 13 years, 1,147-946)
Scioscia had another closed-door meeting with C.J. Wilson, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
• The 2012 Red Sox disaster is largely the responsibility of Valentine, writes John Tomase.
• The Tigers' problem this year has been with the defense, writes Lynn Henning. I totally agree with this. The Tigers put together a team they believed would hit enough to overcome its defensive flaws, and it just hasn't happened -- and it really doesn't matter who the manager is.
I will say this: I find it remarkable -- and a tribute to the players and to Leyland -- that there has not been one instance that I can recall of a pitcher griping about the Detroit defense.
• Jeffrey Loria has a lot of problems to fix, writes Dave Hyde.
• The Nationals clinched a playoff spot.
From Adam Kilgore's story:
The Nationals' 4-1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched Washington's first baseball postseason in 79 years, an achievement that sent fans into delirious celebration and caused a knock on manager Davey Johnson's office door not long after 10:02 p.m., when the last pitch crossed the plate.
He was in his office, saying good night to his wife, Susan. Players dragged him into the clubhouse, where a long table had been set up. Bottles of Korbel and empty flutes had been placed on top. Every player got a glass. "Of course," right-handed pitcher Jordan Zimmermann said in reference to the team's underage outfielder, "Bryce had water."
His team encouraged Johnson to speak, and the 69-year-old manager, back in the playoffs for the first time in 15 years, responded not with a valedictory, but a rallying cry.
"We ain't done yet," Johnson said.
The Nationals are hungry for more, writes Thomas Boswell. Steady progress has been part of the Nationals' master plan.
ELIAS: Davey Johnson will be the second manager to manage four different teams in the postseason, joining Billy Martin.
• The Reds clinched a playoff spot, but without Dusty Baker, who is in good spirits.
• Miguel Cabrera is having a season for the ages, writes Jeff Seidel. Mike Trout has the numbers and the sparks to be the MVP.
The Tigers lost Thursday.
Bustin' Out
Players with a .390 BA, 50+ RBI after the All-Star break, all-time:
Player Team BA RBI
Barry Bonds 2002 Giants .404 53
George Brett 1980 Royals .421 77
Ted Williams 1941 Red Sox .406 58
Earl Averill 1936 Indians .409 64
Paul Waner 1936 Pirates .397 52
Luke Appling 1936 White Sox .395 77
• I don't have a vote for NL MVP, and I'm not yet sure who I will pick. But I think Buster Posey is going to win it.
From Stats & Info: Posey is hitting .392 with 52 RBI since the All-Star Break. He could join an elite group that you can see in the chart at right.
• Chris Carpenter returns to action today, and as Bernie Miklasz writes, it feels like Christmas. From Nate Jones and Kenton Wong of ESPN Stats & Info:
Carpenter has not pitched since winning Game 7 of the 2011 World Series (October 28, 2011). Once he steps on the mound Friday that will mark a span of 328 days between starts.
ELIAS: Only three pitchers have ever started and won a deciding world series game and then not made his next start for at least 300 days (not including pitchers who never started again). Johnny Podres after the 1955 series went a year and 198 days, ****** Ford went over two years after the 1950 series, and Johnny Beazley went three years and 193 days after the 1942 World Series, service in a World War a part of the picture.
When Carpenter has been healthy he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball since making his Cardinals debut in 2004. He's first in MLB in win percentage at .693, third in ERA at 3.06, and fourth in shutouts (tie) with 10.
The Cardinals are in the midst of a nine-game Astros-Cubs-Astros sandwich, and they swallowed Houston in a sweep. Allen Craig is on the verge of qualifying for the league's batting title.
By The Numbers
From ESPN Stats and Info
11,310: Days since Nationals franchise clinched postseason berth on Oct. 3, 1981.
70: No-hitters in MLB since then ... just one by the Expos/Nationals franchise (Dennis Martinez on July 7, 1991).
29: Different teams to have reached the postseason (that's every other team except the Nationals franchise).
26: Quarterbacks which have started a game in the 2012 NFL season that were born following Nationals last postseason appearance. 5: U.S. Presidents which have held office (Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama). 0: Expos/Nationals pitchers which have won at least 20 games in a season (Gio Gonzalez can end drought on Saturday).
Dings and dents
1. Jed Lowrie is making gradual progress.
2. Josh Hamilton is having sinus issues.
Moves, deals and decisions
• Kenny Williams might be promoted to team president, writes Mark Gonzales, with Rick Hahn moving into the GM role.
AL West
• Adrian Beltre got a huge hit for the Rangers, who got another strong outing from Yu Darvish. Beltre had talked his way into the lineup.
• Seth Smith was The Man for the Athletics.
AL Central
• Jarrod Dyson is right: The way the Royals are playing now, no contending team would want to play them. They beat the White Sox Thursday, and they have two series left with Detroit. Salvador Perez set a record for pickoffs.
• The White Sox made some mistakes on the bases.
• Because of Casey Kotchman, it was a good day for the Indians.
• Baltimore's turnaround provides hope for the Twins, writes Joe Christensen.
AL East
• Ichiro Suzuki's on-base percentage has increased by about 50 points since he joined the Yankees.
• The Red Sox had their guts ripped out.
• Miguel Gonzalez's long journey has taken him into a pennant race.
NL West
• Pablo Sandoval showed off some power. Barry Zito looks ready for October, writes Ann Killion.
• The Dodgers have fallen to three games behind in the wildcard race, and their playoff hopes are slipping away.
• Tyler Skaggs learned a lesson. Adam Eaton hit his first homer.
• The Padres continue to play well in the second half.
• The Rockies played some bad defense.
NL Central
• The Pirates' freefall continues: They're now below .500. Clint Hurdle needs to adjust.
• The Brewers rallied for a sweep, but they remain 2 1/2 games behind the Cardinals.
NL East
• The Phillies embarrassed the heck out of the Mets, as Ryan Lawrence writes.
• The Mets hit rock bottom, writes Andrew Keh.
• A couple of young starters are making bids for next year's Miami rotation.
• The Braves need more from Michael Bourn, writes David O'Brien. He's the linchpin guy for Atlanta if the Braves are going to make a dent into October.