2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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rex ryan
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they had this format before prior to 98 for the wild card round. in 95 the wild card yankees won the first 2 games at home against the mariners only to lose the next 3 in seattle.
hell before the whole wild card format they used to rotate home field advantage between the west and east when each league only had 2 divisions. in 1988 the dodgers had home field advantage against the mets in the nlcs even though the mets had a significantly better record then the dodgers. but it the wests turn to have home field advantage that year.
either way however you look at it, mlb has had some weird playoff formats over the years
hell before the whole wild card format they used to rotate home field advantage between the west and east when each league only had 2 divisions. in 1988 the dodgers had home field advantage against the mets in the nlcs even though the mets had a significantly better record then the dodgers. but it the wests turn to have home field advantage that year.
either way however you look at it, mlb has had some weird playoff formats over the years
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the reds look good...........damn good. ...and to any team in our division wanting to throw 100+ at josh, like i said about anaheim wanting CJ, good luck with that.
rex ryan
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hamilton and the rangers are a perfect fit, he'd be foolish to leave them imo. like said before in here, he wouldn't get a free pass for certain things and be protected by the media as well.
dude is a great player but i personally feel he's a phony. not trying to bring up religion but dude said he'll go "wherever God tells him to go" what if God tells him to sign with the royals or the pirates for the mlb minimum?
dude is a great player but i personally feel he's a phony. not trying to bring up religion but dude said he'll go "wherever God tells him to go" what if God tells him to sign with the royals or the pirates for the mlb minimum?
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Beltran 
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Let Josh come to Oakland, I'm sure he can find ~15K fans attending on a nightly basis manageable.
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St. Louis gave Washington a clinic today.
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i don't think he'll go where theres crack
Hate to break it to you, but there is crack in every major city in America. Especially those places perceived as calm. I know for a fact that Iowa City (I know wrong state, but there is not much but corn separating the two) is one of the higher drug trafficking areas in America.
Certainly there is greater temptation in the New York's, LA's, etc. and the media will definitely mop the floor with him if he has another relapse, but to think that he is going to magically wind up in a safe zone is naïve. Where ever he goes, Arlington included, he's still going to need a hell of a support system.
Two Days in Detroit: Craziness at Comerica.
Explaining Miley For NL ROY.
Newman’s Own: Best Second Basemen Of 2012.
Left Side Of Infield Still A Concern For Dodgers.
Iannetta’s California Sojourn Lengthened.
Josh Hamilton: Most Confusing Free Agent Ever?
The Yankees and Orioles: Who’s the Underdog?
It was an eventful weekend in Detroit. The Tigers won the first two games of their ALDS match-up with the Oakland A’s, and the manner in which they did so was pure theater. A lot happened at Comerica Park between six p.m. Saturday and 3:30 p.m. Sunday. Some of it was predictable — Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander showed why they’re leading candidates to capture the MVP and Cy Young — but much of it was downright remarkable. Here are looks at five of the notable storylines.
THE KISS
“It was just emotion. I was happy. When you do something good, you feel happy.” — Al Alburquerque
By now, everyone knows that 26-year-old Tigers’ reliever Al Alburquerque planted a kiss on the baseball before under-handing it to first base to end the top half of a pressure-packed ninth inning. It was a key play in a wild-and-wacky Game Two and opinions are mixed on whether his actions were a case of innocent, youthful exuberance or just as under-handed as his toss.
Not surprisingly, reactions followed party lines. Asked about it after the game, Gerald Laird said “He’s just young and was excited. He didn’t mean anything by it.” Phil Coke’s response was, “I don’t think it’s something that should be viewed as somebody getting showed up. I didn’t think that at all.” Another teammate, Max Scherzer, said, “He’s on a different planet sometimes. I think that’s evident, with him kissing a ball during a game, during the playoffs. It’s just his personality.”
The opposition saw it differently. In a subdued Oakland clubhouse, outfielder Josh Reddick said, “I didn’t think it was very professional. It was something that should be kept off the field and not in between the lines. I don’t think it should happen.” Other A’s players mostly shied away from the question, although it was obvious they weren‘t amused. Catcher George Kottaras said he didn’t see it happen, and that his teammates were mostly focused on going out to the field for the bottom of the inning.
Almost lost in the hullabaloo is the fact that Alburquerque make a good pitch to a dangerous hitter — Yoenis Cespedes — and also make the play. According to Coke, it wasn’t a given.
“I’ve played catch with Albuquerque a number of times, and sometimes he’ll mis-catch the ball,” explained Coke. “I was really excited to see him catch it. In that situation, if he catches it and kisses it, and throws it to first base, I’m all for it. Emotion is part of the game.”
GEHRIG JOHN NESHEK
“Please pray for my family. Tonight my wife & I lost our first & only son 23 hours after he was born with no explanation.” — Pat Neshek, Twitter post, October 4.
The emotions Alburquerque felt were nothing compared to what Pat Neshek experienced on Saturday night. Just days after tragically losing his newborn son, the A’s right-hander took the mound in the seventh inning. He retired both batters he faced and upon returning to the dugout was hugged by teammates. It was as brave and emotionally-charged as any relief outing in baseball history.
“I can’t even image what he was feeling and the emotions going through him,” said teammate Brandon Moss. “I would never want to know, nor wish that on anybody. The way that he came out and pitched, and kept his emotions in check, speaks a lot about what kind of man he is. It was pretty impressive. I don’t really have any words for it.”
The A’s took the field this weekend wearing a patch with the initials “GJN” in honor of Gehrig John Neshek.
CABRERA AND ELECTRICTY
“The World Series — every game I played in — is like the first day you were in the big leagues. You can’t really feel your feet. That whole [1984] Series was very exciting.” — former Tiger Larry Herndon
Befitting postseason baseball, Comerica Park was both cold and electric on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. The temperature hovered around 50 degrees, but most fans were too revved up to care. The seats were a whirl of white towels every time the Tigers threatened, and Miguel Cabrera at bats were greeted with chants of “MVP, MVP.”
The American League MVP award was a hot topic among the contingent of reporters covering the series. Cabrera seems to be the consensus pick. Everyone I talked to showed great respect for Mike Trout’s season, although there was an occasional misguided comment. One reporter [from outside the Detroit market] told me that anyone who doesn’t vote for the Triple-Crown-winning Cabrera deserves to have their voting privileges revoked.
The atmosphere at Comerica Park — and it promises to be the same in Oakland — was as heated as the MVP debate. Players from both teams were commenting on it, with Tigers speedster Quintin Berry providing the best quote.
“There’s so much energy and electricity here with these fans,” Berry said after Game One. “It’s packed out. It’s cold for everybody, so to see them out here, riding it out with you, is pretty special. Usually I get a little energy drink, but today I was not going to do it. I had plenty of energy, man, plenty of energy.”
VERLANDER DOMINANCE
“I’m definitely not a fan of him right now. I mean, I respect him for sure, but when you’re facing a guy like that, you’re definitely not a fan. He’s out there trying to dominate you.” — Brandon Moss
The reigning Cy Young Award winner pitched like one on Friday night. After allowing a lead-off home run to Coco Crisp, he proceeded to blow away Oakland hitters for seven innings. It was classic Verlander, and a performance that was presciently predicted by a Detroit scribe. Shortly before game time, he suggested that Verlander will give up his usual first-inning home run and then dominate.
Moss struck out three times against Verlander, and according to the A’s clean-up hitter, the right-hander was dealing.
“You have to tip your hat,” said Moss. “I got maybe one pitch from him over the middle of the plate. He painted the outside corner with every pitch he had, all night. No one in here is going to do well against him if he’s doing that. Obviously, the only guy who did do well against him was Coco. If a guy goes out and pitches like that, that’s going to be the score of the game. You have to be ready for 100 all the time, and then he’s got that 88-mph dive-ball that he throws. He is who he is.”
BULLPEN ANGST
“If it was going to go over the fence it was going to go over the fence. I was just hoping it wouldn’t.” — Joaquin Benoit
Verlander is Verlander and the Tigers bullpen is… a big problem. The demonstrative Jose Valverde — are his antics not more objectionable than Alburquerque’s smooch? — has been effective closing out games. The set-up role has been a different story.
Joaquin Benoit coughed up an eighth-inning lead on Sunday — a wild pitch tied the game and Josh Reddick’s home run put the A’s in front — and he nearly blew Saturday‘s game. What would have been a game-tying blast by Moss was caught by Andy Dirks in front of the right-centerfield wall.
“It’s a big yard,” said Moss. “I knew it had a chance, but I also knew he was going to have a chance to rob it. I saw him about to climb the wall. He didn’t have to. It just stayed in the park.
“He’s got a good changeup and I was a little out in front of it,” continued Moss. “I recognized it when he threw it, but still didn’t quite stay back far enough. It just got to the end of the bat. You try to take the best swing you can, and it stinks that it didn’t go out.”
Tigers fans are aware that a stinky bullpen could be their downfall. I ventured out to the left-field bleachers for the seventh inning of Friday night’s game, and the hot topic was Verlander’s pitch count and how no one could be counted on to protect the lead. If the Tigers are to go far in the postseason, they need to fix that problem. Not doing so could be the kiss of death to their World Series aspirations.
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THE KISS
“It was just emotion. I was happy. When you do something good, you feel happy.” — Al Alburquerque
By now, everyone knows that 26-year-old Tigers’ reliever Al Alburquerque planted a kiss on the baseball before under-handing it to first base to end the top half of a pressure-packed ninth inning. It was a key play in a wild-and-wacky Game Two and opinions are mixed on whether his actions were a case of innocent, youthful exuberance or just as under-handed as his toss.
Not surprisingly, reactions followed party lines. Asked about it after the game, Gerald Laird said “He’s just young and was excited. He didn’t mean anything by it.” Phil Coke’s response was, “I don’t think it’s something that should be viewed as somebody getting showed up. I didn’t think that at all.” Another teammate, Max Scherzer, said, “He’s on a different planet sometimes. I think that’s evident, with him kissing a ball during a game, during the playoffs. It’s just his personality.”
The opposition saw it differently. In a subdued Oakland clubhouse, outfielder Josh Reddick said, “I didn’t think it was very professional. It was something that should be kept off the field and not in between the lines. I don’t think it should happen.” Other A’s players mostly shied away from the question, although it was obvious they weren‘t amused. Catcher George Kottaras said he didn’t see it happen, and that his teammates were mostly focused on going out to the field for the bottom of the inning.
Almost lost in the hullabaloo is the fact that Alburquerque make a good pitch to a dangerous hitter — Yoenis Cespedes — and also make the play. According to Coke, it wasn’t a given.
“I’ve played catch with Albuquerque a number of times, and sometimes he’ll mis-catch the ball,” explained Coke. “I was really excited to see him catch it. In that situation, if he catches it and kisses it, and throws it to first base, I’m all for it. Emotion is part of the game.”
GEHRIG JOHN NESHEK
“Please pray for my family. Tonight my wife & I lost our first & only son 23 hours after he was born with no explanation.” — Pat Neshek, Twitter post, October 4.
The emotions Alburquerque felt were nothing compared to what Pat Neshek experienced on Saturday night. Just days after tragically losing his newborn son, the A’s right-hander took the mound in the seventh inning. He retired both batters he faced and upon returning to the dugout was hugged by teammates. It was as brave and emotionally-charged as any relief outing in baseball history.
“I can’t even image what he was feeling and the emotions going through him,” said teammate Brandon Moss. “I would never want to know, nor wish that on anybody. The way that he came out and pitched, and kept his emotions in check, speaks a lot about what kind of man he is. It was pretty impressive. I don’t really have any words for it.”
The A’s took the field this weekend wearing a patch with the initials “GJN” in honor of Gehrig John Neshek.
CABRERA AND ELECTRICTY
“The World Series — every game I played in — is like the first day you were in the big leagues. You can’t really feel your feet. That whole [1984] Series was very exciting.” — former Tiger Larry Herndon
Befitting postseason baseball, Comerica Park was both cold and electric on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. The temperature hovered around 50 degrees, but most fans were too revved up to care. The seats were a whirl of white towels every time the Tigers threatened, and Miguel Cabrera at bats were greeted with chants of “MVP, MVP.”
The American League MVP award was a hot topic among the contingent of reporters covering the series. Cabrera seems to be the consensus pick. Everyone I talked to showed great respect for Mike Trout’s season, although there was an occasional misguided comment. One reporter [from outside the Detroit market] told me that anyone who doesn’t vote for the Triple-Crown-winning Cabrera deserves to have their voting privileges revoked.
The atmosphere at Comerica Park — and it promises to be the same in Oakland — was as heated as the MVP debate. Players from both teams were commenting on it, with Tigers speedster Quintin Berry providing the best quote.
“There’s so much energy and electricity here with these fans,” Berry said after Game One. “It’s packed out. It’s cold for everybody, so to see them out here, riding it out with you, is pretty special. Usually I get a little energy drink, but today I was not going to do it. I had plenty of energy, man, plenty of energy.”
VERLANDER DOMINANCE
“I’m definitely not a fan of him right now. I mean, I respect him for sure, but when you’re facing a guy like that, you’re definitely not a fan. He’s out there trying to dominate you.” — Brandon Moss
The reigning Cy Young Award winner pitched like one on Friday night. After allowing a lead-off home run to Coco Crisp, he proceeded to blow away Oakland hitters for seven innings. It was classic Verlander, and a performance that was presciently predicted by a Detroit scribe. Shortly before game time, he suggested that Verlander will give up his usual first-inning home run and then dominate.
Moss struck out three times against Verlander, and according to the A’s clean-up hitter, the right-hander was dealing.
“You have to tip your hat,” said Moss. “I got maybe one pitch from him over the middle of the plate. He painted the outside corner with every pitch he had, all night. No one in here is going to do well against him if he’s doing that. Obviously, the only guy who did do well against him was Coco. If a guy goes out and pitches like that, that’s going to be the score of the game. You have to be ready for 100 all the time, and then he’s got that 88-mph dive-ball that he throws. He is who he is.”
BULLPEN ANGST
“If it was going to go over the fence it was going to go over the fence. I was just hoping it wouldn’t.” — Joaquin Benoit
Verlander is Verlander and the Tigers bullpen is… a big problem. The demonstrative Jose Valverde — are his antics not more objectionable than Alburquerque’s smooch? — has been effective closing out games. The set-up role has been a different story.
Joaquin Benoit coughed up an eighth-inning lead on Sunday — a wild pitch tied the game and Josh Reddick’s home run put the A’s in front — and he nearly blew Saturday‘s game. What would have been a game-tying blast by Moss was caught by Andy Dirks in front of the right-centerfield wall.
“It’s a big yard,” said Moss. “I knew it had a chance, but I also knew he was going to have a chance to rob it. I saw him about to climb the wall. He didn’t have to. It just stayed in the park.
“He’s got a good changeup and I was a little out in front of it,” continued Moss. “I recognized it when he threw it, but still didn’t quite stay back far enough. It just got to the end of the bat. You try to take the best swing you can, and it stinks that it didn’t go out.”
Tigers fans are aware that a stinky bullpen could be their downfall. I ventured out to the left-field bleachers for the seventh inning of Friday night’s game, and the hot topic was Verlander’s pitch count and how no one could be counted on to protect the lead. If the Tigers are to go far in the postseason, they need to fix that problem. Not doing so could be the kiss of death to their World Series aspirations.
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Explaining Miley For NL ROY.
Season-ending awards routinely evoke differing passionate opinions amongst baseball fans, writers, and players. A perfect example of that is the debate as to whether Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera should win the American League MVP, which has continuously raged for the better part of September.
With that in mind, I was surprised to see the overwhelming majority of the FanGraphs staff vote for Bryce Harper as the NL Rookie of the Year over left-hander Wade Miley. While arguments can certainly be made for Harper, I thought Miley had a slightly better resume to be crowned the best rookie in the National League this season.
And, I suppose, that definition is where some of the confusion lies in my part. The Rookie of the Year is defined as the best rookie, not the most valuable rookie. That difference in terminology has always led me to vote for the rookie who compiled the best numbers without giving extra consideration to a position player because they largely play every day, and thus, often provide more value to their respective teams — which is why pitchers rarely win MVP awards.
Perhaps I’m alone in interpreting the award in that fashion. It was surprising, however, to see Wade Miley and Bryce Harper so far apart in the voting, despite identical +4.8 WAR seasons. Miley has the fourth-highest WAR of any pitcher in the National League, while Harper owns the third-highest WAR of any NL center fielder. The numbers are so close. There doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut decision.
Miley played a huge part in salvaging the Diamondbacks’ starting rotation. The team’s two stalwarts from last season — Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson — failed to reproduce their success, due both to ineffectiveness and injury. Kennedy was nothing more than league-league average. He soaked up 200-plus innings, but merely posted a 98 FIP- and a 96 ERA-. Hudson, on the other hand, only made nine starts and saw his season end with Tommy John surgery.
With that in mind, the Diamondbacks needed someone to step up and anchor the rotation. Miley was not only the starter who experienced the most success on the mound, but he averaged 6.4 innings per start. Working consistently deep into games helped save the bullpen from overwork. It’s hard to imagine the Diamondbacks’ bullpen compiling the fourth-best FIP in all of baseball without Miley stepping into the rotation with such a high level of success.
The Diamondbacks’ left-hander also has the advantage in playing time. He spent the entire season in the big leagues, while Harper joined in the last week in April. That is a month’s more value Miley provided his team.
Harper evens the scales, however, with his his defensive value — in which he compiled an +8.9 UZR and one of the best arm numbers (+6.6 ARM) in the league. He’s more than a than just a bat. He augmented the Nationals’ production on both offense and defense, which negates much of the advantage Miley has with stabilizing a rotation in potential crisis and overall playing time.
The tipping point for me comes on a razor-thin point, in which Miley performed better compared to his position than did Harper. Miley’s 76 FIP- means he performed 24% better than the league-average pitcher. Harper, on the other hand, posted an impressive 122 wRC+, meaning he performed 22% better than the league-average hitter. Both statistics are park-adjusted, as well, which helps cut out the background noise of Chase Field being more hitter-friendly than Nationals Park.
In terms of which performance is more objectively impressive, Bryce Harper wins in a landslide. He was essentially a five-win player as a 19-year-old, while Wade Miley did so at 25 years old. Perhaps that comes into play for some people, which is fine. That simply did not affect my evaluation of which player had a statistically better rookie season.
When it came down to it, the race was so close that an extremely minor point swung my favor to Miley. He performed a little better compared to the league average than did Harper. That’s why he got my vote.
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With that in mind, I was surprised to see the overwhelming majority of the FanGraphs staff vote for Bryce Harper as the NL Rookie of the Year over left-hander Wade Miley. While arguments can certainly be made for Harper, I thought Miley had a slightly better resume to be crowned the best rookie in the National League this season.
And, I suppose, that definition is where some of the confusion lies in my part. The Rookie of the Year is defined as the best rookie, not the most valuable rookie. That difference in terminology has always led me to vote for the rookie who compiled the best numbers without giving extra consideration to a position player because they largely play every day, and thus, often provide more value to their respective teams — which is why pitchers rarely win MVP awards.
Perhaps I’m alone in interpreting the award in that fashion. It was surprising, however, to see Wade Miley and Bryce Harper so far apart in the voting, despite identical +4.8 WAR seasons. Miley has the fourth-highest WAR of any pitcher in the National League, while Harper owns the third-highest WAR of any NL center fielder. The numbers are so close. There doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut decision.
Miley played a huge part in salvaging the Diamondbacks’ starting rotation. The team’s two stalwarts from last season — Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson — failed to reproduce their success, due both to ineffectiveness and injury. Kennedy was nothing more than league-league average. He soaked up 200-plus innings, but merely posted a 98 FIP- and a 96 ERA-. Hudson, on the other hand, only made nine starts and saw his season end with Tommy John surgery.
With that in mind, the Diamondbacks needed someone to step up and anchor the rotation. Miley was not only the starter who experienced the most success on the mound, but he averaged 6.4 innings per start. Working consistently deep into games helped save the bullpen from overwork. It’s hard to imagine the Diamondbacks’ bullpen compiling the fourth-best FIP in all of baseball without Miley stepping into the rotation with such a high level of success.
The Diamondbacks’ left-hander also has the advantage in playing time. He spent the entire season in the big leagues, while Harper joined in the last week in April. That is a month’s more value Miley provided his team.
Harper evens the scales, however, with his his defensive value — in which he compiled an +8.9 UZR and one of the best arm numbers (+6.6 ARM) in the league. He’s more than a than just a bat. He augmented the Nationals’ production on both offense and defense, which negates much of the advantage Miley has with stabilizing a rotation in potential crisis and overall playing time.
The tipping point for me comes on a razor-thin point, in which Miley performed better compared to his position than did Harper. Miley’s 76 FIP- means he performed 24% better than the league-average pitcher. Harper, on the other hand, posted an impressive 122 wRC+, meaning he performed 22% better than the league-average hitter. Both statistics are park-adjusted, as well, which helps cut out the background noise of Chase Field being more hitter-friendly than Nationals Park.
In terms of which performance is more objectively impressive, Bryce Harper wins in a landslide. He was essentially a five-win player as a 19-year-old, while Wade Miley did so at 25 years old. Perhaps that comes into play for some people, which is fine. That simply did not affect my evaluation of which player had a statistically better rookie season.
When it came down to it, the race was so close that an extremely minor point swung my favor to Miley. He performed a little better compared to the league average than did Harper. That’s why he got my vote.
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Newman’s Own: Best Second Basemen Of 2012.
Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). Additionally, I’ll do my best to rank based on notes/video from the park and avoid adjusting for statistics after the fact. Keep this in mind when working through the lists and understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.
Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
1. Nick Franklin, Seattle Mariners (SS)
At 21, Franklin combines the defensive skills and offensive performance to profile as the highest floor prospect on this list by a wide margin. Young for Double-A and Triple-A competition, Franklin’s PCL numbers translate to .314/.395/.547 against age-appropriate competition. He’s not an impact talent, but one scout compared him to Adam Kennedy whose career stands at 14 years and counting.
2. Angelo Gumbs, New York Yankees
The most explosive athlete on this list, Gumbs oozes tools and has bat speed to spare. Gumbs has a lower floor than a number of second baseman ranked below him on the list, but nobody else has the potential of being an impact talent either. Amazing to think he was the fourth best position prospect on his own team in Charleston.
3. Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
At 18, Polanco posted a .312/.383/.509 triple slash line in the Appalachian League and fit in nicely amongst fellow prospects on an Elizabethton team featuring up to eight of the Twins top-12. A switch hitter, Polanco appeared equally strong from both sides of the plate during batting practice and took infield reps at shortstop before sliding across the diamond during the game. I always want to see full season baseball on a prospect’s resume before becoming too excited about a player, but Polanco is off to an explosive start.
4. Henry Rodriguez, Cincinnati Reds
Color me enamored with Rodriguez’ hit tool — the best on this list. He’s undersized and may not provide much in terms of power production, but I saw few better pure hitters in 2012. My only real concern about his offensive game is a walk rate which may leave the 22-year old too batting average dependent. If I were an opposing general manager, I’d be inquiring with Brandon Phillips entrenched in Cincinnati.
5. Drew Robinson, Texas Rangers
I went to Greenville with little knowledge of who Drew Robinson was, but left thinking he was one of the better baseball players scouted all season. His tools aren’t loud, but the 20-year old presents with no real weakness in person. “Statifiles” point to Matt Skole‘s .438 OBP as a 22/23 year old in the South Atlantic League, but Robinson’s was .409 at 33 months Skole’s junior. Add a bit of power and the ability to play both second and third base admirably, and Robinson has a higher floor than anybody on this list not named Franklin.
6. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
Mookie or Scooter? Scooter or Mookie? If name value were the name of this game, then the 6th and 7th ranked players on this list would be slam dunks for the top two slots. In all seriousness, Betts has the combination of tools and athleticism I covet in a prospect. For Lowell, Betts presented with the range of a shortstop, but multiple throwing errors made including him on this list an easy decision. I know a .307 slugging percentage is uninspiring, but Betts flashed gap power in game action in addition to above average plate discipline. Combine this with the defensive tools of at least an above average second baseman, and the 19-year old is primed to shoot up the Red Sox prospect ranks with a strong 2013 in Greenville.
7. Scooter Gennett, Milwaukee Brewers
If I had a dollar for every time a scout referred to a diminutive prospect as “a nice little player”, I’d be writing baseball for a living. On the field, Gennett is the poster boy for this sentiment as he does everything relatively well, but has no standout skill or tool to speak of. One concern about the 22-year old is that his OPS his dropped steadily each season as he’s moved up the organizational ladder. Gennett’s inability to play shortstop in a pinch hurts a potential utility profile leaving his big league prospects a bit murky should he not emerge as at least a second division starter.
8. Branden Kaupe, New York Mets
How does one spin a .173 average and .195 slugging percentage into a positive? I have no idea, but I’m willing to give it a try. After being a surprise fourth round pick out of a Hawaii high school, Kaupe posted a .358 OBP in his lower 48 debut at a time when he should have been overwhelmed in all areas offensively. The 18-year old has the bat speed, foot speed and build of a Jose Altuve clone if everything breaks right. Having scouted Altuve at the South Atlantic League level, I’m more willing to give a guy like Kaupe a longer leash than I once was.
9. Tony Renda, Washington Nationals
Another “nice little player”, Renda has foot and bat speed to spare, but showed little pop in his short season debut. A second round pick who probably would have gone lower had the Nationals not shot for the moon by drafting Lucas Giolito, Renda has a big league projection, but little upside to speak of. Like Gennett, Renda not being able to play any shortstop hurts his versatility and negatively impacts his prospect value.
10. Jake Lemmerman, Los Angeles Dodgers (SS)
Is Jake Lemmerman a future big leaguer? I think so, but there’s just not much upside in a utility profile these days. He presents with no glaring weakness, but identifiable strengths are not there either. At 23, I’m a bit concerned his baseball skills will fall short of offsetting Lemmerman’s lack of tools leaving a player with more of an up and down profile in the end.
11. Matt Reynolds, New York Mets (SS)
Speaking of utility profiles, Mets second round pick Matt Reynolds also projects as a jack of all trades type with no stand out tool. I commend New York for trying him at shortstop, but he’s probably not long for the position. Maybe he can function as a third shortstop option on a big league roster, but that’s about it. In Savannah, his contact skills were relatively strong, but Reynolds approach is conducive to less power than his muscular frame would indicate.
12. Kenny Diekroger, Kansas City Royals
Once considered one of the top preps in the country, Diekroger struck out a startling 27% of the time in his Appalachian League debut. I can see him developing into a utility player, but he’s a greater risk to meet that projection than the two players ranked ahead of him in Lemmerman and Reynolds. Based on Diekroger’s Stanford pedigree, he should have dominated short season baseball, not struggled in it.
13. Tyler Greene, Philadelphia Phillies
only 19, Green suffered through a disastrous 2012 batting only .195 with a 122/23 strikeout-to-walk ratio across two levels. In Auburn, New York, I witnessed a Williamsport coach dress down Greene after a lethargic infield/outfield practice only to appear disinterested in the actual game. In general, it’s considered a positive for a young prospect to experience failure at the minor league level. However, it’s only a productive exercise if the player matures and improves from that adversity.
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Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
1. Nick Franklin, Seattle Mariners (SS)
At 21, Franklin combines the defensive skills and offensive performance to profile as the highest floor prospect on this list by a wide margin. Young for Double-A and Triple-A competition, Franklin’s PCL numbers translate to .314/.395/.547 against age-appropriate competition. He’s not an impact talent, but one scout compared him to Adam Kennedy whose career stands at 14 years and counting.
2. Angelo Gumbs, New York Yankees
The most explosive athlete on this list, Gumbs oozes tools and has bat speed to spare. Gumbs has a lower floor than a number of second baseman ranked below him on the list, but nobody else has the potential of being an impact talent either. Amazing to think he was the fourth best position prospect on his own team in Charleston.
3. Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
At 18, Polanco posted a .312/.383/.509 triple slash line in the Appalachian League and fit in nicely amongst fellow prospects on an Elizabethton team featuring up to eight of the Twins top-12. A switch hitter, Polanco appeared equally strong from both sides of the plate during batting practice and took infield reps at shortstop before sliding across the diamond during the game. I always want to see full season baseball on a prospect’s resume before becoming too excited about a player, but Polanco is off to an explosive start.
4. Henry Rodriguez, Cincinnati Reds
Color me enamored with Rodriguez’ hit tool — the best on this list. He’s undersized and may not provide much in terms of power production, but I saw few better pure hitters in 2012. My only real concern about his offensive game is a walk rate which may leave the 22-year old too batting average dependent. If I were an opposing general manager, I’d be inquiring with Brandon Phillips entrenched in Cincinnati.
5. Drew Robinson, Texas Rangers
I went to Greenville with little knowledge of who Drew Robinson was, but left thinking he was one of the better baseball players scouted all season. His tools aren’t loud, but the 20-year old presents with no real weakness in person. “Statifiles” point to Matt Skole‘s .438 OBP as a 22/23 year old in the South Atlantic League, but Robinson’s was .409 at 33 months Skole’s junior. Add a bit of power and the ability to play both second and third base admirably, and Robinson has a higher floor than anybody on this list not named Franklin.
6. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
Mookie or Scooter? Scooter or Mookie? If name value were the name of this game, then the 6th and 7th ranked players on this list would be slam dunks for the top two slots. In all seriousness, Betts has the combination of tools and athleticism I covet in a prospect. For Lowell, Betts presented with the range of a shortstop, but multiple throwing errors made including him on this list an easy decision. I know a .307 slugging percentage is uninspiring, but Betts flashed gap power in game action in addition to above average plate discipline. Combine this with the defensive tools of at least an above average second baseman, and the 19-year old is primed to shoot up the Red Sox prospect ranks with a strong 2013 in Greenville.
7. Scooter Gennett, Milwaukee Brewers
If I had a dollar for every time a scout referred to a diminutive prospect as “a nice little player”, I’d be writing baseball for a living. On the field, Gennett is the poster boy for this sentiment as he does everything relatively well, but has no standout skill or tool to speak of. One concern about the 22-year old is that his OPS his dropped steadily each season as he’s moved up the organizational ladder. Gennett’s inability to play shortstop in a pinch hurts a potential utility profile leaving his big league prospects a bit murky should he not emerge as at least a second division starter.
8. Branden Kaupe, New York Mets
How does one spin a .173 average and .195 slugging percentage into a positive? I have no idea, but I’m willing to give it a try. After being a surprise fourth round pick out of a Hawaii high school, Kaupe posted a .358 OBP in his lower 48 debut at a time when he should have been overwhelmed in all areas offensively. The 18-year old has the bat speed, foot speed and build of a Jose Altuve clone if everything breaks right. Having scouted Altuve at the South Atlantic League level, I’m more willing to give a guy like Kaupe a longer leash than I once was.
9. Tony Renda, Washington Nationals
Another “nice little player”, Renda has foot and bat speed to spare, but showed little pop in his short season debut. A second round pick who probably would have gone lower had the Nationals not shot for the moon by drafting Lucas Giolito, Renda has a big league projection, but little upside to speak of. Like Gennett, Renda not being able to play any shortstop hurts his versatility and negatively impacts his prospect value.
10. Jake Lemmerman, Los Angeles Dodgers (SS)
Is Jake Lemmerman a future big leaguer? I think so, but there’s just not much upside in a utility profile these days. He presents with no glaring weakness, but identifiable strengths are not there either. At 23, I’m a bit concerned his baseball skills will fall short of offsetting Lemmerman’s lack of tools leaving a player with more of an up and down profile in the end.
11. Matt Reynolds, New York Mets (SS)
Speaking of utility profiles, Mets second round pick Matt Reynolds also projects as a jack of all trades type with no stand out tool. I commend New York for trying him at shortstop, but he’s probably not long for the position. Maybe he can function as a third shortstop option on a big league roster, but that’s about it. In Savannah, his contact skills were relatively strong, but Reynolds approach is conducive to less power than his muscular frame would indicate.
12. Kenny Diekroger, Kansas City Royals
Once considered one of the top preps in the country, Diekroger struck out a startling 27% of the time in his Appalachian League debut. I can see him developing into a utility player, but he’s a greater risk to meet that projection than the two players ranked ahead of him in Lemmerman and Reynolds. Based on Diekroger’s Stanford pedigree, he should have dominated short season baseball, not struggled in it.
13. Tyler Greene, Philadelphia Phillies
only 19, Green suffered through a disastrous 2012 batting only .195 with a 122/23 strikeout-to-walk ratio across two levels. In Auburn, New York, I witnessed a Williamsport coach dress down Greene after a lethargic infield/outfield practice only to appear disinterested in the actual game. In general, it’s considered a positive for a young prospect to experience failure at the minor league level. However, it’s only a productive exercise if the player matures and improves from that adversity.
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Left Side Of Infield Still A Concern For Dodgers.
The Dodgers entered the offseason a little sooner than they expected, but they have already hit the ground running in terms of their offseason planning. While they must await the results of medical exams on both Matt Kemp and Chad Billingsley, they have a pretty good idea of how they expect to attack the offseason, and that is to get after starting pitching. That is a good goal — with Billingsley and Ted Lilly potentially unavailable at the start of the season, and Aaron Harang potentially not good at any time, Los Angeles could use some reinforcements. But general manager Ned Colletti is also planning, at this juncture, to run with the combo of Luis Cruz at third and Hanley Ramirez at shortstop next season. This is a mistake.
The Dodgers were impressed by Cruz down the stretch, and following the ineffectiveness of Dee Gordon the hip injury to Jerry Hairston and Juan Uribe’s general Juan Uribeness, Cruz was a boon for the club on the left side of the infield. The 28-year old Minor League veteran started 48 games at third base, 23 games at shortstop and even tossed in two games at second base for funsies. And while he isn’t going to remind anyone of Miguel Cabrera, he did compile a 107 wRC+. He also finished the season with 119 straight plate appearances without drawing a walk. Cruz’s 3.0 BB% was the third-lowest in baseball among those with at least 250 PA’s this season — only Miguel Olivo, Alexei Ramirez and Pedro Ciriaco walked less frequently on a rate basis.
Instead of drawing walks, Cruz made his hay by making contact — only 30 players had a K% less than that of Cruz’s 11.5 K%. But can Cruz maintain such a low strikeout rate? Anecdotal evidence would suggest not. His swinging strike % this year was 8.3%. Thirteen other players, including his teammates Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez, has an identical SwStr% — all 13 struck out more frequently. Looking at his swing percentages, there were only 11 players who swung at balls outside of the zone more frequently than did Cruz, and 11 of them struck out more frequently as well. In fact, looking at his swing percentages, a trend emerges:
Plate Discipline Percentage Rank
O-Swing % 41.3 12
Z-Swing % 71.3 40
Swing % 55.1 8
O-Contact % 74.3 81
Z-Contact % 92 t-58
Contact % 84.8 73
Only seven people swung at more pitches than did Cruz, but plenty of players made more contact. What that would seem to suggest is that Cruz is about to start striking out more frequently, and as he does he will fall back towards utility player status, if that. He doesn’t have much power to speak of, and given his speed, he’s probably not going to be legging out too many infield singles. Making contact and good glovework are what keep Cruz a viable player of the Dodgers, and if his contact skills erode even a touch, so does most of his value.
Compounding the decision to keep Cruz at third is to insert Ramirez at shortstop for a whole season. There was a reason that Ramirez was moved off of shortstop by the Marlins at the beginning of this season. Ramirez fails the eye test and the stats test at shortstop, and he isn’t exactly Brooks Robinson at third base either — during his nearly 900 innings at third base this season, the UZR/150 he compiled was barely better than Miguel Cabrera. The Dodgers like the idea of premium offense at the shortstop position, but the tradeoff is simply not worth it at this point — Ramirez’s WAR in 2011 and 2012 combined doesn’t equal his 2010 production, and the 4.6 WAR he compiled was, at the time, tied for his worst major league season.
The better play would be to look for a shortstop externally and slide Hanley back to third base. There he can still have value offensively — his 107 wRC+ was just a hair out of the top 10 for qualified third basemen. And while there aren’t a lot of options at third base, there may just be some opportunities at shortstop. My first call would be to Texas, which has two shortstops in Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar. If one were to become available, the Dodgers shouldn’t hesitate to work up a competitive offer. The same situation exists in Baltimore with J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado, unless the Orioles are planning to permanently convert Machado to third base. Perhaps the Indians, who are potentially going to be rebuilding again, would part with Asdrubal Cabrera. Or perhaps the Marlins would be interested in parting with Jose Reyes now that they have decided to once again shed payroll.
On the free agent front, Stephen Drew could be an attractive play if the A’s turn down his option. Drew progressively rounded back into shape as the season drew to a close. Finally, Marco Scutaro is set to become a free agent, and while the Giants would no doubt like to retain him, the Dodgers should have the financial muscle to outbid them for his services. All of these players would be less pumpkin-y than is Cruz, and while some may represent a high price in either cash or prospects, Los Angeles has already passed the point of no return for the foreseeable future.
If the Dodgers fail to net any of these players, a combination of Cruz and Hairston probably won’t make for the worst third base combo in baseball, but it’s certainly not ideal. The Dodgers are trying to restore their former glory and get back to the postseason, and they came very close this season. But that progress shouldn’t fool Los Angeles into thinking that they are merely a couple of starting pitchers away. The left side of the infield remains a concern — the team can’t count on Jerry Hairston to be full strength right away, and they can’t count on Dee Gordon to be productive either. Hanley Ramirez has no business playing shortstop, and while Luis Cruz was good this season, he is unlikely to be as good next season. When the clock strikes midnight for Cruz, the Dodgers may end up with as many questions on the left side of their infield next year as they did halfway through this year.
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The Dodgers were impressed by Cruz down the stretch, and following the ineffectiveness of Dee Gordon the hip injury to Jerry Hairston and Juan Uribe’s general Juan Uribeness, Cruz was a boon for the club on the left side of the infield. The 28-year old Minor League veteran started 48 games at third base, 23 games at shortstop and even tossed in two games at second base for funsies. And while he isn’t going to remind anyone of Miguel Cabrera, he did compile a 107 wRC+. He also finished the season with 119 straight plate appearances without drawing a walk. Cruz’s 3.0 BB% was the third-lowest in baseball among those with at least 250 PA’s this season — only Miguel Olivo, Alexei Ramirez and Pedro Ciriaco walked less frequently on a rate basis.
Instead of drawing walks, Cruz made his hay by making contact — only 30 players had a K% less than that of Cruz’s 11.5 K%. But can Cruz maintain such a low strikeout rate? Anecdotal evidence would suggest not. His swinging strike % this year was 8.3%. Thirteen other players, including his teammates Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez, has an identical SwStr% — all 13 struck out more frequently. Looking at his swing percentages, there were only 11 players who swung at balls outside of the zone more frequently than did Cruz, and 11 of them struck out more frequently as well. In fact, looking at his swing percentages, a trend emerges:
Plate Discipline Percentage Rank
O-Swing % 41.3 12
Z-Swing % 71.3 40
Swing % 55.1 8
O-Contact % 74.3 81
Z-Contact % 92 t-58
Contact % 84.8 73
Only seven people swung at more pitches than did Cruz, but plenty of players made more contact. What that would seem to suggest is that Cruz is about to start striking out more frequently, and as he does he will fall back towards utility player status, if that. He doesn’t have much power to speak of, and given his speed, he’s probably not going to be legging out too many infield singles. Making contact and good glovework are what keep Cruz a viable player of the Dodgers, and if his contact skills erode even a touch, so does most of his value.
Compounding the decision to keep Cruz at third is to insert Ramirez at shortstop for a whole season. There was a reason that Ramirez was moved off of shortstop by the Marlins at the beginning of this season. Ramirez fails the eye test and the stats test at shortstop, and he isn’t exactly Brooks Robinson at third base either — during his nearly 900 innings at third base this season, the UZR/150 he compiled was barely better than Miguel Cabrera. The Dodgers like the idea of premium offense at the shortstop position, but the tradeoff is simply not worth it at this point — Ramirez’s WAR in 2011 and 2012 combined doesn’t equal his 2010 production, and the 4.6 WAR he compiled was, at the time, tied for his worst major league season.
The better play would be to look for a shortstop externally and slide Hanley back to third base. There he can still have value offensively — his 107 wRC+ was just a hair out of the top 10 for qualified third basemen. And while there aren’t a lot of options at third base, there may just be some opportunities at shortstop. My first call would be to Texas, which has two shortstops in Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar. If one were to become available, the Dodgers shouldn’t hesitate to work up a competitive offer. The same situation exists in Baltimore with J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado, unless the Orioles are planning to permanently convert Machado to third base. Perhaps the Indians, who are potentially going to be rebuilding again, would part with Asdrubal Cabrera. Or perhaps the Marlins would be interested in parting with Jose Reyes now that they have decided to once again shed payroll.
On the free agent front, Stephen Drew could be an attractive play if the A’s turn down his option. Drew progressively rounded back into shape as the season drew to a close. Finally, Marco Scutaro is set to become a free agent, and while the Giants would no doubt like to retain him, the Dodgers should have the financial muscle to outbid them for his services. All of these players would be less pumpkin-y than is Cruz, and while some may represent a high price in either cash or prospects, Los Angeles has already passed the point of no return for the foreseeable future.
If the Dodgers fail to net any of these players, a combination of Cruz and Hairston probably won’t make for the worst third base combo in baseball, but it’s certainly not ideal. The Dodgers are trying to restore their former glory and get back to the postseason, and they came very close this season. But that progress shouldn’t fool Los Angeles into thinking that they are merely a couple of starting pitchers away. The left side of the infield remains a concern — the team can’t count on Jerry Hairston to be full strength right away, and they can’t count on Dee Gordon to be productive either. Hanley Ramirez has no business playing shortstop, and while Luis Cruz was good this season, he is unlikely to be as good next season. When the clock strikes midnight for Cruz, the Dodgers may end up with as many questions on the left side of their infield next year as they did halfway through this year.
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Iannetta’s California Sojourn Lengthened.
Almost three years ago, the Colorado Rockies signed an extension with their 26-year-old catcher, Chris Iannetta. Iannetta was coming off of two good offensive years for a catcher. Although the team had made him split playing time with Yorvit Torrealbea during 2009, the new contract seemed to indicate that Iannetta was going to be the main guy going forward. It was not to be. Iannetta ended up getting fewer than 700 plate appearances for the Rockies in 2010 and 2011 combined. While he did not exactly light it up as he had in 2008, it was baffling why the Rockies would extend a promising catcher then jerk him around in favor of obvious stopgap players like Miguel Olivo.
Whether the Rockies were right or wrong to do that, by the end of 2011 it was pretty clear that Iannetta had worn out his welcome in Colorado. Wilin Rosario, a prospect who had good power, and (perhaps most attractive to the Rockies) shared Olivo’s aversion to walks and blocking pitches, was ready. The Rockies struck a deal with the Angels after the season that sent Iannetta to the Angels for Tyler Chatwood. For some reason, the Angels had a hole at catcher. Or maybe, given Iannetta’s hitting style, Mike Scioscia just really appreciates irony. In any case, despite Iannetta’s injury-marred season, rather than making a decision on Iannetta’s club option for 2013, the Angels replaced it with a three-year, $15.5 million contract last Friday.
As far as hitting goes, it now seems pretty clear that Iannetta’s .264/.390/505 (129 wRC+) line back in 2008 was pretty far over his head. However, while his strikeouts and flyball tendencies will generally lead to a low average due to a relatively low number of balls in play and a low average on those that do go into play, Ianetta has generally had enough walks and pop in his bat to be a decent hitter for a catcher. Sure, that 78 wRC+ in 2010 is ugly, but that is only one season, and a small sample (223 PA) of a season at that. In 2009, his wRC+ was 99, in 2011, it was 105. His 2012 line (.240/.332/.39
superficially looks as poor as 2010, but once one makes the adjustment for moving from the league’s best hitters park to the Angels’ pitchers park, it was worth about the same as 2011 relative to the run environment: 103 wRC+. The drop in power the last two seasons is a bit troubling, but Iannetta still has some power and draws walks. He looks like he can be a league average bat for at least the time being, and given that he is a catcher, that qualifies as good offense.
Of course, “good offense” has not really been a big part of the job description for Angels catchers the last few years. At least not if they wanted to actually play catcher. Iannetta has sometimes looked awkward behind the plate, but while (admittedly limited) catcher fielding metrics are overly fond of him, they do not see him as a black hole of catcher defense, as least as far as pitch-blocking and controlling the running game go.
There are other aspects of the catcher’s job, of course. Some, such as game-calling, are difficult to measure. Maybe Scioscia likes what Iannetta does with that, I do not know. However, what is pretty interesting is that in one of the formerly seemingly-inscrutable aspects of catching, Iannetta is actually pretty bad. We do not have any updated numbers for 2012 (at least that I have seen), but frmo 2007-2011, Iannetta was one of the worst pitch framers in baseball, costing the Rockies about 10 runs per 120 games caught. That is not to say that 10 runs below average is his true talent, but simply to note that it does cut into his value. (Jeff Sullivan’s reflections on this in the case of Zack Greinke are worth checking out if you haven’t already.)
Playing time and the lingering effects of his injury may or may not be an issue. On one hand, Iannetta has only played more than 100 games twice in his career: 112 in 2011 and 104 in 2007. On the other hand, most of that time was not missed due to injury, but due to the awesomeness of Yorvit Torrealbea and Miguel Olivo. And even coming off of the injury, he still managed decent offense for a catcher.
Overall, $5 million dollars a year for a player who is probably around league average is a nice deal these days. Given that the Angels reportedly are planning on turning down Dan Haren and Ervin Santana‘s options, so that will free up some money. Of course, that money might be slated for a run at Zack Greinke, but ifthe Angels are going to keep spending like that, then $5 million dollars for a catcher is chump change, especially given their lack of depth at the position.
While this contract is hardly thrilling, it does make sense for the Angels. I do, however, expect that the Hank Conger Fan Club will be furious.
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Whether the Rockies were right or wrong to do that, by the end of 2011 it was pretty clear that Iannetta had worn out his welcome in Colorado. Wilin Rosario, a prospect who had good power, and (perhaps most attractive to the Rockies) shared Olivo’s aversion to walks and blocking pitches, was ready. The Rockies struck a deal with the Angels after the season that sent Iannetta to the Angels for Tyler Chatwood. For some reason, the Angels had a hole at catcher. Or maybe, given Iannetta’s hitting style, Mike Scioscia just really appreciates irony. In any case, despite Iannetta’s injury-marred season, rather than making a decision on Iannetta’s club option for 2013, the Angels replaced it with a three-year, $15.5 million contract last Friday.
As far as hitting goes, it now seems pretty clear that Iannetta’s .264/.390/505 (129 wRC+) line back in 2008 was pretty far over his head. However, while his strikeouts and flyball tendencies will generally lead to a low average due to a relatively low number of balls in play and a low average on those that do go into play, Ianetta has generally had enough walks and pop in his bat to be a decent hitter for a catcher. Sure, that 78 wRC+ in 2010 is ugly, but that is only one season, and a small sample (223 PA) of a season at that. In 2009, his wRC+ was 99, in 2011, it was 105. His 2012 line (.240/.332/.39
superficially looks as poor as 2010, but once one makes the adjustment for moving from the league’s best hitters park to the Angels’ pitchers park, it was worth about the same as 2011 relative to the run environment: 103 wRC+. The drop in power the last two seasons is a bit troubling, but Iannetta still has some power and draws walks. He looks like he can be a league average bat for at least the time being, and given that he is a catcher, that qualifies as good offense.Of course, “good offense” has not really been a big part of the job description for Angels catchers the last few years. At least not if they wanted to actually play catcher. Iannetta has sometimes looked awkward behind the plate, but while (admittedly limited) catcher fielding metrics are overly fond of him, they do not see him as a black hole of catcher defense, as least as far as pitch-blocking and controlling the running game go.
There are other aspects of the catcher’s job, of course. Some, such as game-calling, are difficult to measure. Maybe Scioscia likes what Iannetta does with that, I do not know. However, what is pretty interesting is that in one of the formerly seemingly-inscrutable aspects of catching, Iannetta is actually pretty bad. We do not have any updated numbers for 2012 (at least that I have seen), but frmo 2007-2011, Iannetta was one of the worst pitch framers in baseball, costing the Rockies about 10 runs per 120 games caught. That is not to say that 10 runs below average is his true talent, but simply to note that it does cut into his value. (Jeff Sullivan’s reflections on this in the case of Zack Greinke are worth checking out if you haven’t already.)
Playing time and the lingering effects of his injury may or may not be an issue. On one hand, Iannetta has only played more than 100 games twice in his career: 112 in 2011 and 104 in 2007. On the other hand, most of that time was not missed due to injury, but due to the awesomeness of Yorvit Torrealbea and Miguel Olivo. And even coming off of the injury, he still managed decent offense for a catcher.
Overall, $5 million dollars a year for a player who is probably around league average is a nice deal these days. Given that the Angels reportedly are planning on turning down Dan Haren and Ervin Santana‘s options, so that will free up some money. Of course, that money might be slated for a run at Zack Greinke, but ifthe Angels are going to keep spending like that, then $5 million dollars for a catcher is chump change, especially given their lack of depth at the position.
While this contract is hardly thrilling, it does make sense for the Angels. I do, however, expect that the Hank Conger Fan Club will be furious.
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Josh Hamilton: Most Confusing Free Agent Ever?
On Friday, the Rangers season ended, as the team fell to the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Wild Card play-in game. Josh Hamilton, in what will quite possibly be his final at-bat as a Texas Ranger, was booed by the home crowd. From an outside perspective, a break-up seems inevitable. The Rangers — and their fans — seem to just be tired of the Josh Hamilton Experience.
On one hand, the frustration is understandable. Back in May, I wrote a piece noting that Hamilton’s combination of approach and success were historically unique. That he was destroying opposing pitchers while showing the plate discipline of a three-year-old was fascinating. Then opposing pitchers adjusted, they simply stopped him throwing him anything near the plate, and Hamilton went into an epic two month slump. In August, Hamilton rebounded a bit, and he and his coaches both suggested that he’d made the necessary changes to his approach, even though the evidence suggested otherwise.
Not surprisingly, the success didn’t last, and any notion that Hamilton had made any strides with his pitch selection issues were dashed in the final month of the year, as his monthly totals illustrate:
Month PA BB% K% ISO BABIP wRC+
Mar/Apr 96 7% 18% 0.349 0.403 211
May 111 11% 20% 0.438 0.323 202
Jun 107 11% 33% 0.213 0.309 91
Jul 91 9% 23% 0.177 0.175 48
Aug 125 9% 24% 0.265 0.364 148
Sept/Oct 106 9% 35% 0.298 0.320 122
In the final four months of the season, Hamilton struck out 123 times in 429 trips to the plate, a strikeout rate of 28.7%. During that stretch, he hit .245/.322/.487. For comparison, Alfonso Soriano hit .262/.322/.499 this year and only struck out in 24.9% of his plate appearances. While Hamilton blew Soriano away in April and May, the lasting memory of Josh Hamilton to Rangers fans is a four month stretch of baseball where Hamilton was basically Alfonso Soriano. No wonder they’re not banging down the doors to sign up for another five years of that.
And yet, April and May happened too. We can’t just ignore that for the first two months of the season, Hamilton hit .368./.420/.764 and was the best player on the planet. He was the same aggressive swing-at-anything guy then that he’s always been, but he managed to keep his strikeout rate down to just 18.8% and launch 21 homers in 47 games. It obviously wasn’t sustainable, but then again, neither was his July collapse. The truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle.
And, judged as a whole, Hamilton’s season was actually quite good. He played in 148 games and racked up 636 plate appearances, answering some questions about whether he was too fragile to be an everyday player. In those 148 games, he produced +4.4 WAR, his third straight season posting a +4 win season or better. His 139 wRC+ was slightly higher than his career mark of 135. Even heading into his age-32 season, it’s hard to project him as worse than a +4 win player, and there aren’t a lot of +4 win players just hanging around free agency this year.
Just based on straight production, he’s probably in line for $20-$25 million per year, depending on the length of the deal offered. But, perhaps no premium free agent in recent history came with as many question marks as Hamilton does.
Can he get his strikeout rate back down with his current approach at the plate? Can he learn to stop swinging at pitches two feet off the plate? Is his body up to staying in the outfield, or does he project as a first baseman after another year or two? Do you want to guarantee years beyond age 35 for a guy with a history of addiction?
Hamilton makes Jose Reyes look like a rock of stability, and Reyes had to settle for just $17 million per year even after having a +6 win season at age 28. And, by all accounts, the Mets actually wanted Reyes back. It’s not clear that the Rangers actually do want Hamilton back, given his second half fade and the issues that go along with having him as the foundation of their line-up. And so, it seems like Texas is going to let him see what the market will bear, then decide whether they want to give him a similar deal in order to keep him around. This is the strategy they employed with C.J. Wilson last year, and of course, he ended up in Anaheim.
But, it also seems possible that Josh Hamilton’s market may never develop. This feels a little reminiscent of Andruw Jones after the 2007 season, where Atlanta just tired of his weight gain and underperformance — and he eventually settled for 2/40 from the Dodgers after teams decided that the risks weren’t worth the reward. Jones’ 85 wRC+ that year also had something to do with it, of course, and Hamilton will certainly do better than 2/40, but how much better is something of an open question. His track record and age suggest that a long term deal is probably not a great idea, so even an aggressive suitor is probably going to top out at five years, and there very well may not be an aggressive suitor for Josh Hamilton this winter. The Yankees don’t seem to need him. The Red Sox seem unlikely to take a big bet on another potentially unlikeable player with a big contract. The Dodgers outfield is full. Unless the Tigers fall short in the playoffs and decide to pony up for one more big bat to take a run at a title, it’s hard to find too many situations where a team will be motivated to offer Hamilton a huge contract.
And, if he’s sitting on the market in January without any real options, the Rangers could potentially be his best landing spot. Which, again, brings up the question of whether they even want him back.
I could see Hamilton getting 5/125 from a team that decides to just ignore the risk and land the best offensive player on the market this winter. I could see Hamilton remaining a free agent until January before signing a one year deal somewhere to try and prove that his second half wasn’t a sign of things to come. Like with Hamilton on the field, his free agent outcomes cover the entire spectrum of possibilities. Perhaps that’s only fitting for a guy who and can end a 43-home-run season being booed by his home crowd.
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On one hand, the frustration is understandable. Back in May, I wrote a piece noting that Hamilton’s combination of approach and success were historically unique. That he was destroying opposing pitchers while showing the plate discipline of a three-year-old was fascinating. Then opposing pitchers adjusted, they simply stopped him throwing him anything near the plate, and Hamilton went into an epic two month slump. In August, Hamilton rebounded a bit, and he and his coaches both suggested that he’d made the necessary changes to his approach, even though the evidence suggested otherwise.
Not surprisingly, the success didn’t last, and any notion that Hamilton had made any strides with his pitch selection issues were dashed in the final month of the year, as his monthly totals illustrate:
Month PA BB% K% ISO BABIP wRC+
Mar/Apr 96 7% 18% 0.349 0.403 211
May 111 11% 20% 0.438 0.323 202
Jun 107 11% 33% 0.213 0.309 91
Jul 91 9% 23% 0.177 0.175 48
Aug 125 9% 24% 0.265 0.364 148
Sept/Oct 106 9% 35% 0.298 0.320 122
In the final four months of the season, Hamilton struck out 123 times in 429 trips to the plate, a strikeout rate of 28.7%. During that stretch, he hit .245/.322/.487. For comparison, Alfonso Soriano hit .262/.322/.499 this year and only struck out in 24.9% of his plate appearances. While Hamilton blew Soriano away in April and May, the lasting memory of Josh Hamilton to Rangers fans is a four month stretch of baseball where Hamilton was basically Alfonso Soriano. No wonder they’re not banging down the doors to sign up for another five years of that.
And yet, April and May happened too. We can’t just ignore that for the first two months of the season, Hamilton hit .368./.420/.764 and was the best player on the planet. He was the same aggressive swing-at-anything guy then that he’s always been, but he managed to keep his strikeout rate down to just 18.8% and launch 21 homers in 47 games. It obviously wasn’t sustainable, but then again, neither was his July collapse. The truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle.
And, judged as a whole, Hamilton’s season was actually quite good. He played in 148 games and racked up 636 plate appearances, answering some questions about whether he was too fragile to be an everyday player. In those 148 games, he produced +4.4 WAR, his third straight season posting a +4 win season or better. His 139 wRC+ was slightly higher than his career mark of 135. Even heading into his age-32 season, it’s hard to project him as worse than a +4 win player, and there aren’t a lot of +4 win players just hanging around free agency this year.
Just based on straight production, he’s probably in line for $20-$25 million per year, depending on the length of the deal offered. But, perhaps no premium free agent in recent history came with as many question marks as Hamilton does.
Can he get his strikeout rate back down with his current approach at the plate? Can he learn to stop swinging at pitches two feet off the plate? Is his body up to staying in the outfield, or does he project as a first baseman after another year or two? Do you want to guarantee years beyond age 35 for a guy with a history of addiction?
Hamilton makes Jose Reyes look like a rock of stability, and Reyes had to settle for just $17 million per year even after having a +6 win season at age 28. And, by all accounts, the Mets actually wanted Reyes back. It’s not clear that the Rangers actually do want Hamilton back, given his second half fade and the issues that go along with having him as the foundation of their line-up. And so, it seems like Texas is going to let him see what the market will bear, then decide whether they want to give him a similar deal in order to keep him around. This is the strategy they employed with C.J. Wilson last year, and of course, he ended up in Anaheim.
But, it also seems possible that Josh Hamilton’s market may never develop. This feels a little reminiscent of Andruw Jones after the 2007 season, where Atlanta just tired of his weight gain and underperformance — and he eventually settled for 2/40 from the Dodgers after teams decided that the risks weren’t worth the reward. Jones’ 85 wRC+ that year also had something to do with it, of course, and Hamilton will certainly do better than 2/40, but how much better is something of an open question. His track record and age suggest that a long term deal is probably not a great idea, so even an aggressive suitor is probably going to top out at five years, and there very well may not be an aggressive suitor for Josh Hamilton this winter. The Yankees don’t seem to need him. The Red Sox seem unlikely to take a big bet on another potentially unlikeable player with a big contract. The Dodgers outfield is full. Unless the Tigers fall short in the playoffs and decide to pony up for one more big bat to take a run at a title, it’s hard to find too many situations where a team will be motivated to offer Hamilton a huge contract.
And, if he’s sitting on the market in January without any real options, the Rangers could potentially be his best landing spot. Which, again, brings up the question of whether they even want him back.
I could see Hamilton getting 5/125 from a team that decides to just ignore the risk and land the best offensive player on the market this winter. I could see Hamilton remaining a free agent until January before signing a one year deal somewhere to try and prove that his second half wasn’t a sign of things to come. Like with Hamilton on the field, his free agent outcomes cover the entire spectrum of possibilities. Perhaps that’s only fitting for a guy who and can end a 43-home-run season being booed by his home crowd.
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The Yankees and Orioles: Who’s the Underdog?
If you’ve made your way to FanGraphs — and if, furthermore, our demographic data is even half accurate — you’re the sort of person who either (a) has done well in school or (b) is currently doing well in school. Which, that means you’re probably also the sort of person who (a) has taken a number of quizzes before and also (b) has done well on those same quizzes — and maybe even (c) actively enjoys taking quizzes.
All of which suggests that the reader will be giddy with excitement to take this important baseball quiz:
Important Baseball Quiz
“Hilarious” is the word, I believe, for which the reader is searching.
Apart from eliciting the heartiest possible guffaws, however, this quiz has a rhetorical purpose: were we able to remove responses from fans of both the Yankees and Orioles, it’s likely that ca. 80% of readers will have picked the latter here — or, roughly the same portion of participants from a 1991 study who, given the choice between two teams and all other things being equal, picked the underdog.
Of course, it’s at this point that an entirely reasonable person might ask, “How do we know the Baltimore Orioles really are the underdog in their ALDS series against the New York Yankees — and, if one were interested in that question, how might he answer it?”
By at least four ways, is how — as follow.
Answer One
The first answer is that the Orioles are an underdog in this series insofar as they (a) haven’t qualified for the playoffs since 1997 (while their opponents have only missed qualifying for the playoffs once since then), (b) have spent considerably less on their roster than their opponent (by about $110 million, or the cost of the entire Cardinals roster), and (c) were considered by many — including the very expert authors of this site — to be one of the weakest organizations in the majors entering the season.
For all of these reasons, the Orioles are underdogs when a wider context is considered.
Answer Two
With regard to another sense of the question — that is, whether the Orioles are less likely to win this series against the Yankees, specifically — the answer to that question is, “Let’s consider that in more depth.”
One way the Orioles might be considered an underdog is if sportsbooks are offering higher payouts for them than for the Yankees.
And, look: as of Sunday afternoon, a $1.00 bet on the Yankees to win the ALDS returns about $0.42, according to Pinnacle Sports (a sportsbook that appeals to sharp, or smart, bettors, as opposed to square ones). A $1.00 bet on the Orioles? About $2.14.
These odds suggest about a 69% chance of victory for the Yankees, about 31% for the Orioles.
By this criterion, the Orioles are underdogs.
Answer Three
Here’s another way of assessing the Orioles’ chances of winning the ALDS: by using seasonal runs scored and allowed to calculate their odds of winning the series.
The Orioles scored 4.40 runs per game this year and allowed about 4.35. The Yankees scored 4.96 per game this year and allowed 4.12. The average American League team scored 4.40 runs and (because of interleague play) allowed fewer, 4.35 runs per game.
Using simple indices relative to league average, we’d assume that the Yankees offense would typically score about 4.93 runs against the Orioles pitching and defense, while the Orioles would score 4.14 runs against the Yankees. A team that scores 4.14 runs per game and allows 4.93 would win about 42% of the time.
Game by game, and including an adjustment for home-field advantage, here’s how the series would play out using the figures above:
Game Home BAL NYA
1 BAL 46.3% 53.7%
2 BAL 46.3% 53.7%
3 NYA 38.3% 61.7%
4 NYA 38.3% 61.7%
5 NYA 38.3% 61.7%
Total — 34.3% 65.7%
By this measure, the Orioles have only about a 34% chance of winning the series — better than even a sharp sportsbook like Pinnacle is implying, but not by much. They are still decidedly underdogs.
Answer Four
Here’s a thing, though: seasonal totals for runs scored and allowed are likely not representative of a team’s present true talent or roster construction. In fact, the Orioles were one of baseball’s best teams in September and October — not merely by record, but also by run-scoring and -prevention.
So, here’s a different way of assessing the Orioles’ chances of winning the ALDS: by using only September and October runs scored and allowed and then projecting odds of winning and losing the series using just those numbers.
Over the last month-plus of the regular season, Baltimore scored 5.10 runs per game and allowed just 3.61; New York, 5.61 and 4.16 runs, respectively.
Using those numbers, we’d expect the Yankees to score around 4.62 against the Orioles, with the Orioles actually scoring more now, at 4.84 runs. All things being equal, the Orioles would have about a 52% chance of winning a game against the Yankees held at a neutral site.
Game by game, and including an adjustment for home-field advantage, here’s how the series would play out using only September and October runs scored and allowed:
Game Home BAL NYA
1 BAL 57.3% 42.7%
2 BAL 57.3% 42.7%
3 NYA 47.4% 52.6%
4 NYA 47.4% 52.6%
5 NYA 47.4% 52.6%
Total — 52.6% 47.4%
By this measure, the Orioles actually aren’t underdogs, but slight favorites.
Conclusions
By at least one criterion — i.e. a game-by-game projection of the ALDS using runs scored and allowed from September and October only — the Yankees might be considered slight underdogs for the series. By at least three other criteria, however — including within a larger context that considers the Orioles’ mediocrity over the last decade-plus and the relatively surprising nature of their 2012 season — it’s the Orioles who are decided underdogs, and it’s based upon this criterion that most neutral fans will likely make their pick for whom to root in the ALDS between Baltimore and New York.
Series Schedule
For reference, here’s the series schedule as it stands on Sunday afternoon:
Away Tm Time Tm Home Game
CC Sabathia NYA Oct 7, 18:07 ET BAL Jason Hammel 1
Andy Pettitte NYA Oct 8, 20:07 ET BAL Wei-Yin Chen 2
Miguel Gonzalez BAL Oct 10, TBD NYA Hiroki Kuroda 3
Joe Saunders BAL Oct 11, TBD NYA Phil Hughes 4
Jason Hammel BAL Oct 12, TBD NYA CC Sabathia 5
All of which suggests that the reader will be giddy with excitement to take this important baseball quiz:
Important Baseball Quiz
“Hilarious” is the word, I believe, for which the reader is searching.
Apart from eliciting the heartiest possible guffaws, however, this quiz has a rhetorical purpose: were we able to remove responses from fans of both the Yankees and Orioles, it’s likely that ca. 80% of readers will have picked the latter here — or, roughly the same portion of participants from a 1991 study who, given the choice between two teams and all other things being equal, picked the underdog.
Of course, it’s at this point that an entirely reasonable person might ask, “How do we know the Baltimore Orioles really are the underdog in their ALDS series against the New York Yankees — and, if one were interested in that question, how might he answer it?”
By at least four ways, is how — as follow.
Answer One
The first answer is that the Orioles are an underdog in this series insofar as they (a) haven’t qualified for the playoffs since 1997 (while their opponents have only missed qualifying for the playoffs once since then), (b) have spent considerably less on their roster than their opponent (by about $110 million, or the cost of the entire Cardinals roster), and (c) were considered by many — including the very expert authors of this site — to be one of the weakest organizations in the majors entering the season.
For all of these reasons, the Orioles are underdogs when a wider context is considered.
Answer Two
With regard to another sense of the question — that is, whether the Orioles are less likely to win this series against the Yankees, specifically — the answer to that question is, “Let’s consider that in more depth.”
One way the Orioles might be considered an underdog is if sportsbooks are offering higher payouts for them than for the Yankees.
And, look: as of Sunday afternoon, a $1.00 bet on the Yankees to win the ALDS returns about $0.42, according to Pinnacle Sports (a sportsbook that appeals to sharp, or smart, bettors, as opposed to square ones). A $1.00 bet on the Orioles? About $2.14.
These odds suggest about a 69% chance of victory for the Yankees, about 31% for the Orioles.
By this criterion, the Orioles are underdogs.
Answer Three
Here’s another way of assessing the Orioles’ chances of winning the ALDS: by using seasonal runs scored and allowed to calculate their odds of winning the series.
The Orioles scored 4.40 runs per game this year and allowed about 4.35. The Yankees scored 4.96 per game this year and allowed 4.12. The average American League team scored 4.40 runs and (because of interleague play) allowed fewer, 4.35 runs per game.
Using simple indices relative to league average, we’d assume that the Yankees offense would typically score about 4.93 runs against the Orioles pitching and defense, while the Orioles would score 4.14 runs against the Yankees. A team that scores 4.14 runs per game and allows 4.93 would win about 42% of the time.
Game by game, and including an adjustment for home-field advantage, here’s how the series would play out using the figures above:
Game Home BAL NYA
1 BAL 46.3% 53.7%
2 BAL 46.3% 53.7%
3 NYA 38.3% 61.7%
4 NYA 38.3% 61.7%
5 NYA 38.3% 61.7%
Total — 34.3% 65.7%
By this measure, the Orioles have only about a 34% chance of winning the series — better than even a sharp sportsbook like Pinnacle is implying, but not by much. They are still decidedly underdogs.
Answer Four
Here’s a thing, though: seasonal totals for runs scored and allowed are likely not representative of a team’s present true talent or roster construction. In fact, the Orioles were one of baseball’s best teams in September and October — not merely by record, but also by run-scoring and -prevention.
So, here’s a different way of assessing the Orioles’ chances of winning the ALDS: by using only September and October runs scored and allowed and then projecting odds of winning and losing the series using just those numbers.
Over the last month-plus of the regular season, Baltimore scored 5.10 runs per game and allowed just 3.61; New York, 5.61 and 4.16 runs, respectively.
Using those numbers, we’d expect the Yankees to score around 4.62 against the Orioles, with the Orioles actually scoring more now, at 4.84 runs. All things being equal, the Orioles would have about a 52% chance of winning a game against the Yankees held at a neutral site.
Game by game, and including an adjustment for home-field advantage, here’s how the series would play out using only September and October runs scored and allowed:
Game Home BAL NYA
1 BAL 57.3% 42.7%
2 BAL 57.3% 42.7%
3 NYA 47.4% 52.6%
4 NYA 47.4% 52.6%
5 NYA 47.4% 52.6%
Total — 52.6% 47.4%
By this measure, the Orioles actually aren’t underdogs, but slight favorites.
Conclusions
By at least one criterion — i.e. a game-by-game projection of the ALDS using runs scored and allowed from September and October only — the Yankees might be considered slight underdogs for the series. By at least three other criteria, however — including within a larger context that considers the Orioles’ mediocrity over the last decade-plus and the relatively surprising nature of their 2012 season — it’s the Orioles who are decided underdogs, and it’s based upon this criterion that most neutral fans will likely make their pick for whom to root in the ALDS between Baltimore and New York.
Series Schedule
For reference, here’s the series schedule as it stands on Sunday afternoon:
Away Tm Time Tm Home Game
CC Sabathia NYA Oct 7, 18:07 ET BAL Jason Hammel 1
Andy Pettitte NYA Oct 8, 20:07 ET BAL Wei-Yin Chen 2
Miguel Gonzalez BAL Oct 10, TBD NYA Hiroki Kuroda 3
Joe Saunders BAL Oct 11, TBD NYA Phil Hughes 4
Jason Hammel BAL Oct 12, TBD NYA CC Sabathia 5
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Nationals got thumped. They are heading home where they play better baseball. Three game series now.
Big day for the Bay Area and their ball clubs. I hope to see some victories and series go to Game 5s.
Big day for the Bay Area and their ball clubs. I hope to see some victories and series go to Game 5s.
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Big day of baseball today......4 games.
Hope the Nats and O's get those Ws.
Trying to find a good stream at work.
Hope the Nats and O's get those Ws.
Trying to find a good stream at work.
Will Rangers let Josh Hamilton walk?
Francona's first hurdle in Cleveland.
Out on a limb.
What's next for Atlanta and Texas?
10 guys I am most excited to scout in AFL.
Cardinals must stay patient.
Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels told reporters that the team will let Josh Hamilton will test the open market before it makes a bid, Richard Durrett writes. And it's not even clear if the Rangers will bid. From Durrett's story:
"If you've gone this far, you're going to test the market," Daniels said. "The realities are when a guy goes out and tests the market and it's this close, you're not going to pre-empt it. I think he's going to go out and test the market and see what's out there and get back to us.
"No door has been closed. We're also very realistic about when a star player hits free agency at this point and the history of them returning to their original club. So we have to prepare both ways and prepare the club for the possibility that he's not back."
Look, maybe this is the Rangers' polite way of exiting their employer-employee relationship with Hamilton, a source of tremendous production for the Rangers -- and extraordinary frustration because of his inconsistency and unreliability. Hamilton vowed to Texas manager Ron Washington before the season that he would play in 155 games this season, and he came close, accumulating 148 games. But his season was shaped by the highest peaks and deepest valleys of performance.
OPS for Hamilton this season, month by month
April: 1.182 (third among all hitters)
May: 1.186 (second)
June: .754 (102nd)
July: .607 (229th)
August: .943 (25th)
September: .948 (22nd)
October: .385 (13 at-bats)
Rival evaluators note the seeming lack of day-to-day focus in Hamilton's at-bats, and it would shock no one around baseball if the Rangers decided to walk away from Hamilton altogether.
But if the Rangers intend to bid on Hamilton in some manner -- perhaps a two- or three-year deal with a high annual salary and vesting options -- then sitting and waiting for other teams to make offers is the best way to handle this, because other potential bidders will watch Texas closely.
The assumption around baseball is that the Rangers know far more about Hamilton, his erratic performance and his fight against addiction than anybody else. They know more about his daily preparation, about his game-to-game readiness, about the odd ailments that have kept him out of the lineup.
Imagine if this were a neighborhood game of Texas Hold 'em and a poker superstar like Phil Hellmuth showed up. The Rangers would be Hellmuth: Everybody else would be watching the way he played his hand, the way he bid, the way he stayed out of bidding, because they'd believe he was armed with far more knowledge.
If the Rangers were to bid aggressively on Hamilton early in this process, they would effectively provide confidence for everybody else sitting at the table. But the longer they wait, the more passive they are in negotiations, and the more nervous and concerned other potential bidders will be. If Texas ultimately wants to keep Hamilton, it makes no sense for the Rangers to push this, in what one rival GM recently referred to as the most unique set of circumstances for an elite free agent in baseball history.
The Rangers are recovering from their late-season collapse, and Washington seized responsibility for what happened, writes Jean-Jacques Taylor.
Rangers president Nolan Ryan says the timing of Hamilton's decision to quit smokeless tobacco couldn't have been worse.
Tigers-Athletics
Coco Crisp made one of the best catches in postseason history, helping the Athletics shut out the Tigers.
Once again, the Tigers' offense has vanished, writes Drew Sharp. Anibal Sanchez threw well but still lost.
Tigers fans would be wise to not push the panic button, writes Lynn Henning.
Giants-Reds
The Giants stole a win from the Reds. Within John Fay's story, Scott Rolen and Ryan Hanigan talked about the mistakes that led to the decisive run.
Rolen thinks he approached the play properly. "I don't think I'd have played it any differently," he said. "I'd have tried to catch it if I got a chance to do it again. With a man on third there, it's not the ground ball that I want to see. I just want to be aggressive and make the play. I knew it was kind of a do-or-die play. I don't think (shortstop Zack Cozart) could have gotten there. I'd probably play it that way again and hopefully get a better result."
The 10th was an all-around bad inning for the Reds. [Jonathan] Broxton gave up a pair of hits to Buster Posey and Hunter Pence to start the inning. Broxton struck out Brandon Belt and Xavier Nady. But the first pitch to [Joaquin] Arias got by catcher Ryan Hanigan for a passed ball. "It just ran more than I thought," Hanigan said. "It just took off on me and I missed it."
Hunter Pence made an emotional pregame speech, writes Henry Schulman. They said it sounded like a football coach's speech, writes Bruce Jenkins.
The longer this series goes on, the stronger the Giants will be, writes Tim Kawakami.
Johnny Cueto has a strained oblique, and the Reds don't know when he can pitch again. Homer Bailey threw great in Game 3.
From ESPN Stats & Information: The Giants entered the 10th inning of Tuesday's game with just one hit but managed to win in extras. According to Elias, they're the third team in postseason history to win a game in which they had no more than one hit through nine innings.
One hit or fewer through nine innings and won postseason game
Giants: 2012 NLDS vs. Reds
Athletics: 1974 ALCS vs. Orioles
Dodgers: 1947 WS vs. Yankees
Orioles-Yankees
Joe Girardi sounds as though he's contemplating a lineup change with Alex Rodriguez.
An astute evaluator noted this about Rodriguez: His current swing is generated almost entirely from his upper body in his effort to make contact, with no real power coming from his legs. He is much better suited to hitting against left-handers than right-handers, and he is much more effective attacking pitches in the lower half of the strike zone. "He's vulnerable on high fastballs," the evaluator said. "He can get to low fastballs."
Rodriguez's OPS versus right-handers this season was about 200 points lower than against lefties. On Wednesday night, the Yankees face right-hander Miguel Gonzalez, who is not overpowering with an average fastball of 91.1 mph. But as scouts have noted, Rodriguez has struggled against even mediocre fastballs.
The Yankees need a big effort from Hiroki Kuroda on Wednesday.
Part of the reason the Orioles started Wei-Yin Chen in Game 2 was that he had a full week of rest leading up to the game, and during the regular season, his numbers were excellent when he had those extra days -- a 2.28 ERA in four starts. The same dynamic will be there in Game 3 for Kuroda, who has seemed to respond to extra rest through his career.
Kuroda's ERA on four days' rest: 3.53 (73 games)
Five days' rest: 3.32
Six-plus days' rest: 3.07
Gonzalez is unassuming and unfazed, like the rest of the Orioles. Orioles owner Peter Angelos has greatly enjoyed this season.
Jim Johnson found redemption the other night. His stuff was absolutely filthy.
The travel for the Yankees and Orioles was a mess after Game 2.
Cardinals-Nationals
Ian Desmond, knowing he must field ground balls during a day game Wednesday, used social media in a manner we haven't seen before with this tweet:
@IanDesmond20 If your sitting behind home plate field level I would appreciate it if you wouldn't wear white shirts. For those of u thinkin white out.
Stephen Strasburg has accepted his dugout role, writes Amanda Comak.
Washington's series is in the hands of Edwin Jackson, writes Barry Svrluga. Desmond's talents are on display.
Chris Carpenter's big moment is here. The Cardinals are in a good position, writes Bernie Miklasz. Carlos Beltran is back in the swing, writes Rick Hummel.
The postgame commute could be ugly.
Jaime Garcia was taken off the Cardinals' playoff roster.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Figuring out what to do with Jacoby Ellsbury will be a priority for the Boston Red Sox, writes Scott Lauber. Here's the bottom line: Ellsbury's agent, Scott Boras, will look to get the young outfielder a top-of-the-market deal, a record deal for an outfielder, and he may well get it. And on the flip side, the Red Sox couldn't possibly commit a record number of dollars to Ellsbury, given how many games he has missed in two of the past three seasons.
2. Nick Swisher could be hurting his free agency with how he has performed in the postseason.
3. The New York Mets will offer David Wright a lot of money.
4. The Colorado Rockies must establish their identity, writes Troy Renck.
Dings and dents
1. All signs are good for Joakim Soria as he comes back from Tommy John surgery, writes Bob Dutton.
2. A Dodgers prospect is recovering from a staph infection.
By The Numbers
From ESPN Stats & Info
3: Times this season Prince Fielder has been robbed of a home run after Coco Crisp did it to him Tuesday (leads league for hitters).
6: Consecutive strikeouts for Homer Bailey in Tuesday's game, tying the postseason record, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
17: Outs (of 18 total) recorded by Brett Anderson either by groundout or strikeout Tuesday.
"If you've gone this far, you're going to test the market," Daniels said. "The realities are when a guy goes out and tests the market and it's this close, you're not going to pre-empt it. I think he's going to go out and test the market and see what's out there and get back to us.
"No door has been closed. We're also very realistic about when a star player hits free agency at this point and the history of them returning to their original club. So we have to prepare both ways and prepare the club for the possibility that he's not back."
Look, maybe this is the Rangers' polite way of exiting their employer-employee relationship with Hamilton, a source of tremendous production for the Rangers -- and extraordinary frustration because of his inconsistency and unreliability. Hamilton vowed to Texas manager Ron Washington before the season that he would play in 155 games this season, and he came close, accumulating 148 games. But his season was shaped by the highest peaks and deepest valleys of performance.
OPS for Hamilton this season, month by month
April: 1.182 (third among all hitters)
May: 1.186 (second)
June: .754 (102nd)
July: .607 (229th)
August: .943 (25th)
September: .948 (22nd)
October: .385 (13 at-bats)
Rival evaluators note the seeming lack of day-to-day focus in Hamilton's at-bats, and it would shock no one around baseball if the Rangers decided to walk away from Hamilton altogether.
But if the Rangers intend to bid on Hamilton in some manner -- perhaps a two- or three-year deal with a high annual salary and vesting options -- then sitting and waiting for other teams to make offers is the best way to handle this, because other potential bidders will watch Texas closely.
The assumption around baseball is that the Rangers know far more about Hamilton, his erratic performance and his fight against addiction than anybody else. They know more about his daily preparation, about his game-to-game readiness, about the odd ailments that have kept him out of the lineup.
Imagine if this were a neighborhood game of Texas Hold 'em and a poker superstar like Phil Hellmuth showed up. The Rangers would be Hellmuth: Everybody else would be watching the way he played his hand, the way he bid, the way he stayed out of bidding, because they'd believe he was armed with far more knowledge.
If the Rangers were to bid aggressively on Hamilton early in this process, they would effectively provide confidence for everybody else sitting at the table. But the longer they wait, the more passive they are in negotiations, and the more nervous and concerned other potential bidders will be. If Texas ultimately wants to keep Hamilton, it makes no sense for the Rangers to push this, in what one rival GM recently referred to as the most unique set of circumstances for an elite free agent in baseball history.
The Rangers are recovering from their late-season collapse, and Washington seized responsibility for what happened, writes Jean-Jacques Taylor.
Rangers president Nolan Ryan says the timing of Hamilton's decision to quit smokeless tobacco couldn't have been worse.
Tigers-Athletics
Coco Crisp made one of the best catches in postseason history, helping the Athletics shut out the Tigers.
Once again, the Tigers' offense has vanished, writes Drew Sharp. Anibal Sanchez threw well but still lost.
Tigers fans would be wise to not push the panic button, writes Lynn Henning.
Giants-Reds
The Giants stole a win from the Reds. Within John Fay's story, Scott Rolen and Ryan Hanigan talked about the mistakes that led to the decisive run.
Rolen thinks he approached the play properly. "I don't think I'd have played it any differently," he said. "I'd have tried to catch it if I got a chance to do it again. With a man on third there, it's not the ground ball that I want to see. I just want to be aggressive and make the play. I knew it was kind of a do-or-die play. I don't think (shortstop Zack Cozart) could have gotten there. I'd probably play it that way again and hopefully get a better result."
The 10th was an all-around bad inning for the Reds. [Jonathan] Broxton gave up a pair of hits to Buster Posey and Hunter Pence to start the inning. Broxton struck out Brandon Belt and Xavier Nady. But the first pitch to [Joaquin] Arias got by catcher Ryan Hanigan for a passed ball. "It just ran more than I thought," Hanigan said. "It just took off on me and I missed it."
Hunter Pence made an emotional pregame speech, writes Henry Schulman. They said it sounded like a football coach's speech, writes Bruce Jenkins.
The longer this series goes on, the stronger the Giants will be, writes Tim Kawakami.
Johnny Cueto has a strained oblique, and the Reds don't know when he can pitch again. Homer Bailey threw great in Game 3.
From ESPN Stats & Information: The Giants entered the 10th inning of Tuesday's game with just one hit but managed to win in extras. According to Elias, they're the third team in postseason history to win a game in which they had no more than one hit through nine innings.
One hit or fewer through nine innings and won postseason game
Giants: 2012 NLDS vs. Reds
Athletics: 1974 ALCS vs. Orioles
Dodgers: 1947 WS vs. Yankees
Orioles-Yankees
Joe Girardi sounds as though he's contemplating a lineup change with Alex Rodriguez.
An astute evaluator noted this about Rodriguez: His current swing is generated almost entirely from his upper body in his effort to make contact, with no real power coming from his legs. He is much better suited to hitting against left-handers than right-handers, and he is much more effective attacking pitches in the lower half of the strike zone. "He's vulnerable on high fastballs," the evaluator said. "He can get to low fastballs."
Rodriguez's OPS versus right-handers this season was about 200 points lower than against lefties. On Wednesday night, the Yankees face right-hander Miguel Gonzalez, who is not overpowering with an average fastball of 91.1 mph. But as scouts have noted, Rodriguez has struggled against even mediocre fastballs.
The Yankees need a big effort from Hiroki Kuroda on Wednesday.
Part of the reason the Orioles started Wei-Yin Chen in Game 2 was that he had a full week of rest leading up to the game, and during the regular season, his numbers were excellent when he had those extra days -- a 2.28 ERA in four starts. The same dynamic will be there in Game 3 for Kuroda, who has seemed to respond to extra rest through his career.
Kuroda's ERA on four days' rest: 3.53 (73 games)
Five days' rest: 3.32
Six-plus days' rest: 3.07
Gonzalez is unassuming and unfazed, like the rest of the Orioles. Orioles owner Peter Angelos has greatly enjoyed this season.
Jim Johnson found redemption the other night. His stuff was absolutely filthy.
The travel for the Yankees and Orioles was a mess after Game 2.
Cardinals-Nationals
Ian Desmond, knowing he must field ground balls during a day game Wednesday, used social media in a manner we haven't seen before with this tweet:
@IanDesmond20 If your sitting behind home plate field level I would appreciate it if you wouldn't wear white shirts. For those of u thinkin white out.
Stephen Strasburg has accepted his dugout role, writes Amanda Comak.
Washington's series is in the hands of Edwin Jackson, writes Barry Svrluga. Desmond's talents are on display.
Chris Carpenter's big moment is here. The Cardinals are in a good position, writes Bernie Miklasz. Carlos Beltran is back in the swing, writes Rick Hummel.
The postgame commute could be ugly.
Jaime Garcia was taken off the Cardinals' playoff roster.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Figuring out what to do with Jacoby Ellsbury will be a priority for the Boston Red Sox, writes Scott Lauber. Here's the bottom line: Ellsbury's agent, Scott Boras, will look to get the young outfielder a top-of-the-market deal, a record deal for an outfielder, and he may well get it. And on the flip side, the Red Sox couldn't possibly commit a record number of dollars to Ellsbury, given how many games he has missed in two of the past three seasons.
2. Nick Swisher could be hurting his free agency with how he has performed in the postseason.
3. The New York Mets will offer David Wright a lot of money.
4. The Colorado Rockies must establish their identity, writes Troy Renck.
Dings and dents
1. All signs are good for Joakim Soria as he comes back from Tommy John surgery, writes Bob Dutton.
2. A Dodgers prospect is recovering from a staph infection.
By The Numbers
From ESPN Stats & Info
3: Times this season Prince Fielder has been robbed of a home run after Coco Crisp did it to him Tuesday (leads league for hitters).
6: Consecutive strikeouts for Homer Bailey in Tuesday's game, tying the postseason record, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
17: Outs (of 18 total) recorded by Brett Anderson either by groundout or strikeout Tuesday.
Francona's first hurdle in Cleveland.
BALTIMORE -- Two days before his interview to become the next manager of the Cleveland Indians, Terry Francona explained how the job seemed different to him. "It's like family to me," he said, talking about his relationship with Indians general manager Chris Antonetti and president Mark Shapiro.
Francona probably strengthened his case with his presentation: Before his interview, he sent the Indians a 16-page breakdown of their team, their organization and what he sees in their future, and the response had been very positive. The Indians wanted Francona, and Francona wanted the Indians.
And there are a lot of people around who believe that he's crazy to take the Cleveland job, and that if he had waited until next season, some much better opportunity for success would've presented itself to him. Maybe in Texas, where Ron Washington's job status will become the subject of much speculation next summer if the Texas Rangers struggle early, or in Anaheim, if the Los Angeles Angels get off to a bad start. These are just two of the possibilities, in places where the teams might be closer to winning than the Indians.
Only the Colorado Rockies had a worse staff ERA than the Indians last season, and the worst of those numbers were constructed by the Cleveland starting pitchers, who compiled a 5.25 ERA. The Indians were at their best in the past decade when they had CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee leading their rotation, but there is no clear rotation now: Justin Masterson took a step back in 2012, slipping to a 4.93 ERA, and Ubaldo Jimenez's decline from a pitcher who went 15-1 in the first half of 2010 to one of the worst starters in the majors remains one of the sport's great mysteries. Zach McAllister was the team's most effective rotation piece in the second half of the season, posting a 4.24 ERA in his 11 starts.
Cleveland went 68-94 this season, after a horrific second-half collapse, and the Indians' attendance has suffered greatly. It helps that the Indians play in what is generally regarded as the weakest division in baseball, and perhaps Francona's positive personality and experience will help something good form. He wanted this job, badly, to work with some executives he really likes and considers to be really good people.
He might be the only manager with his résumé quality who would have considered the Indians.
Francona has a lot of roots in Cleveland, writes Paul Hoynes.
Meanwhile: Jim Tracy walked away from the Rockies, saying he's not the right man for the job, writes Troy Renck. The Rockies' players were surprised, writes Patrick Saunders.
I don't know exactly what Tracy was thinking, but you'd have to think that the Rockies' delay in resolving his status formally was an issue. The Rockies could have announced quickly that Tracy was coming back, but that didn't happen. Even if the Rockies had ultimately decided to keep Tracy for next season, he had to have known that he would've gone into the 2013 season on double-secret probation -- just one stretch of losing away from being fired.
Francona probably strengthened his case with his presentation: Before his interview, he sent the Indians a 16-page breakdown of their team, their organization and what he sees in their future, and the response had been very positive. The Indians wanted Francona, and Francona wanted the Indians.
And there are a lot of people around who believe that he's crazy to take the Cleveland job, and that if he had waited until next season, some much better opportunity for success would've presented itself to him. Maybe in Texas, where Ron Washington's job status will become the subject of much speculation next summer if the Texas Rangers struggle early, or in Anaheim, if the Los Angeles Angels get off to a bad start. These are just two of the possibilities, in places where the teams might be closer to winning than the Indians.
Only the Colorado Rockies had a worse staff ERA than the Indians last season, and the worst of those numbers were constructed by the Cleveland starting pitchers, who compiled a 5.25 ERA. The Indians were at their best in the past decade when they had CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee leading their rotation, but there is no clear rotation now: Justin Masterson took a step back in 2012, slipping to a 4.93 ERA, and Ubaldo Jimenez's decline from a pitcher who went 15-1 in the first half of 2010 to one of the worst starters in the majors remains one of the sport's great mysteries. Zach McAllister was the team's most effective rotation piece in the second half of the season, posting a 4.24 ERA in his 11 starts.
Cleveland went 68-94 this season, after a horrific second-half collapse, and the Indians' attendance has suffered greatly. It helps that the Indians play in what is generally regarded as the weakest division in baseball, and perhaps Francona's positive personality and experience will help something good form. He wanted this job, badly, to work with some executives he really likes and considers to be really good people.
He might be the only manager with his résumé quality who would have considered the Indians.
Francona has a lot of roots in Cleveland, writes Paul Hoynes.
Meanwhile: Jim Tracy walked away from the Rockies, saying he's not the right man for the job, writes Troy Renck. The Rockies' players were surprised, writes Patrick Saunders.
I don't know exactly what Tracy was thinking, but you'd have to think that the Rockies' delay in resolving his status formally was an issue. The Rockies could have announced quickly that Tracy was coming back, but that didn't happen. Even if the Rockies had ultimately decided to keep Tracy for next season, he had to have known that he would've gone into the 2013 season on double-secret probation -- just one stretch of losing away from being fired.
Out on a limb.
THE PRIMARY OCCUPANT of the White House might be the only executive in the free world second-guessed more often these days than Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo, known in many circles as The Idiot Who Shut Down Stephen Strasburg. As part of their ongoing effort to win today, athletes play with broken arms and legs, are shot up and have fractured extremities taped down. Rizzo, on the other hand, sidelined one of the best players in the world to protect him from an injury that might happen.
The sports universe may never grow accustomed to this kind of deferred gratification. Here's former pitcher and former Nats color man Rob Dibble on Fox Sports Radio this August: "You don't get second chances in life and/or professional sports. The arrogance of Mike Rizzo to think, Oh, we're gonna have this long run." Dibble went on, "He's telling everybody, he knows more than orthopedic surgeons, pitching coaches, everybody." The commenters on sports blogs have been less diplomatic. "The fans here in DC think Rizzo is a fat, stupid naysayer," wrote someone on HardballTalk in late August. And the reaction isn't any better at the stadium. "Hey, Rizzo!" a fan yelled from the stands recently as the Nationals took batting practice in Atlanta. "What are ya doin'??!!"
ESPN: The Mag
Chad Millman talks with Nationals GM Mike Rizzo about his decision to sit Stephen Strasburg and Seth Wickersham about his story on Dan Snyder in the latest DC issue.
More Podcasts »
Rizzo, wearing a sport coat over an open collar and staring into the cage, didn't appear to hear this one voice among the many. He is impossible to miss, as conspicuous as a bouncer. With a goatee and his shaved head, he looks like he would be the first shoulder through the door in an episode of Cops, and when he mentions that he's Italian, he does so intending to explain his passion and his temper -- a temper that has surfaced throughout this testy season.
Rizzo understands that if the Nationals fail to win the World Series, his decision to limit Strasburg to roughly 160 innings, effectively benching his ace in early September, will be second-guessed into the future and beyond his lifetime, portrayed as a blunder ranking somewhere between the Red Sox's trade of Babe Ruth and Richard Nixon's failure to not burn the tapes. Everybody has questioned Rizzo's choice, including the Nationals' senior adviser to the GM -- Mike Rizzo's own father.
"Pitch him," Phil Rizzo barked at his son earlier in the year, in the typically blunt manner the Rizzos use. Like a lot of others in the game, Phil advised his son to ignore this new theory -- that young aces are vulnerable to injury when tired and should be shut down when they've pitched a certain number of innings -- and to keep Strasburg on the mound.
The Nationals franchise, after all, hadn't been in the playoffs in three decades, and their phenomenal, almost magical and still-unfolding 2012 season did not guarantee a world championship, much less perennial contention. Shutting down Strasburg didn't really promise good health for Strasburg either -- his delivery puts a lot of stress on his elbow, regardless of the innings he's pitched -- and also ran the risk of alienating him. Strasburg himself told reporters this summer that he was upset with Rizzo's decision; it's impossible to predict how it will impact his relationship with the organization.
Mike Rizzo listened to his father, listened to the other dissenters. Absorbed their comments. And shrugged them off. He's changed nothing. "I sleep like a baby," Rizzo says in mid-September, "knowing we've done the right thing for Stephen Strasburg, and in a roundabout way, for the Washington Nationals. I wouldn't be doing my job properly if I did it any other way."
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[+] Enlarge
Rob Tringali for ESPN The Magazine
Rizzo listens to his critics -- and then shrugs them off.THE NATIONALS MIGHT be good enough to win without Strasburg anyway. That's because of the depth of their roster, constructed almost entirely by Rizzo, who describes his executive philosophy as 60 percent to 70 percent scouting and 30 percent to 40 percent Moneyball. Rizzo sat in the cold in Wisconsin to watch a college pitcher named Jordan Zimmermann (who's blossomed into a star), stuck with shortstop Ian Desmond (who made the All-Star team this year) through ugly defensive development, encouraged the Nationals to invest $126 million in Jayson Werth (who was a World Series champion), signed first baseman Adam LaRoche (who's an MVP candidate), traded last winter for Gio Gonzalez (a favorite for the Cy Young) and brought along Strasburg and phenom outfielder Bryce Harper (whom Rizzo called up in April, sooner than everyone else in baseball favored). With days left in the regular season, the Nationals held the best record in baseball, had one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, and only two other teams had scored more runs since the All-Star break.
He's built the team he wanted through blunt honesty. Werth was on the road toward signing with Boston when he met Rizzo and Nationals owners Ted and Mark Lerner in November 2010. Werth was surprised by Rizzo's directness. "I had never met a GM like that," Werth says. "A straight shooter. A lot of the GMs I've known in the past are kind of the opposite -- you don't know what to believe. Mike came across as very honest. Very passionate about the organization."
Rizzo targeted Gonzalez when Oakland made the pitcher available because Rizzo thought (that with a slight adjustment -- slowing down Gonzalez's delivery -- the lefthander could ascend from a really good young pitcher into an elite starter, complementing righties Strasburg and Zimmermann. Rizzo worked quickly with Oakland GM Billy Beane, who likes dealing with the Washington GM because Rizzo is unafraid, unlike some of their peers. Rizzo and the Nationals (were the lead bidders the whole time, Beane says. "He's very straightforward and very decisive. He doesn't take the approach that it's got to be a zero-sum deal -- 'I win, you lose.'" Washington gave up what rival executives thought to be a significant package: prospect pitchers Tommy Milone, Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole and catcher Derek Norris.
Still, Rizzo was ecstatic. He called Gonzalez afterward and raised the idea of a longer-term contract. "He was like, 'Come on over and let's get something going,' " Gonzalez recalls of the five-year, $42 million contract he ultimately signed. The GM, Gonzalez says, is like "a ring guy" in boxing. "He's going to promote you, he'll get you going. He's like Mickey in Rocky." This season, Gonzalez was the majors' first pitcher to win 20 games.
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BASEBALL'S FRONT OFFICES are increasingly filled with Ivy League wunderkinds. But there is nothing Harvard about Rizzo, whose path to one of baseball's GM jobs began at a kitchen table in a bungalow on Chicago's Waveland Avenue. That's where his father ended his first dream.
Mike Rizzo had been drafted in the 22nd round by the Angels in 1982, and he played infield, hitting .247 in 171 games in three seasons of Class-A ball. In 1985, he was released. He was 24 years old then and intended to sign with another organization and work his way, somehow, to the big leagues. But Phil Rizzo -- who had played six years in the minors himself in the 1950s -- sat him down on one of the steel padded chairs in the family home and told him flatly: I don't think you're good enough to play in the major leagues.
That crushed Mike. But he listened, because he knew his father was honest and knowledgeable, and because Phil's words matched the facts: Mike really hadn't progressed through the minors.
Mike Rizzo got a degree from the University of Illinois, then became an area scout for the White Sox -- the lowest rung in major league baseball's chain of command -- and worked his way up. It wasn't until Rizzo was 37 years old that the Arizona Diamondbacks hired him for his first front office job. As scouting director, Rizzo helped build the Diamondbacks' farm system into one of the best in the majors -- Baseball America ranked the D-backs' prospects 29th in MLB in Rizzo's first season in his new job in 2001 and first when he left -- and he was known among his peers for definitive player evaluations, for not hiding in the safety of the middle ground. His years as a scout convinced him that big, physical pitchers had a better chance for success, so he wanted Max Scherzer in the 2006 draft, and he did not want Tim Lincecum. And he burned to build a team of his own vision. "The only negative I heard about Mike was that he was too ambitious," says Stan Kasten, the former president of the Nationals, who hired Rizzo as an assistant GM in 2006. When Jim Bowden resigned as Washington GM in 2009, Rizzo took over.
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TO THE NATS, Rizzo distinguishes himself as a players' general manager -- very different from a lot of GMs, who prefer distance between themselves and their players. In May 2011, a Nationals game ended on a disputed call, and Rizzo watched his players and the umpires bark at one another as they exited the field. He sensed there would be a postgame confrontation. Sure enough, longtime catcher Ivan Rodriguez was outside the umpires' room in full uniform. Concerned that Rodriguez might do something that would result in a suspension, Rizzo stepped in and went nose to nose with one of the umps, Phil Cuzzi. It wasn't until after the umpires asked security for a Nationals media guide that Cuzzi realized he had been trading F-bombs with Washington's GM.
Rodriguez was not suspended -- but Rizzo was, for a game, and he was fined. Joe Torre, MLB's dean of discipline, told Rizzo this was a first.
Then there was the time Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels drilled Harper with a fastball. This was in May, in the 19-year-old's eighth game in the bigs. Afterward, Hamels told reporters he had hit the rookie on purpose, welcoming him in an "old-school" manner. After reading Hamels' quotes the next morning, Rizzo erupted, telling The Washington Post, "I've never seen a more classless, gutless chicken [bleep] act in my 30 years in baseball ... Cole Hamels says he's old-school? He's the polar opposite of old-school. He's fake tough. He thinks he's going to intimidate us after hitting our 19-year-old rookie who's eight games into the big leagues? He doesn't know who he's dealing with."
[+] Enlarge
Rob Tringali for ESPN The Magazine
The Nationals enjoyed an almost magical regular season thanks to the roster Rizzo created.Harper saw the quotes on television, and the next time he bumped into Rizzo, he thanked him "for battling for me. Having a guy like that on our side is huge for us."
Says Gonzalez: "He was looking out for Bryce, the same way he's looking out for Stras. It's almost like he's looking out for his kids." Says Werth, "He's a big bulldog. A watchdog."
Nats manager Davey Johnson can relate. In late August, Philadelphia swept the Nats -- the Phillies ran the bases aggressively -- and before Johnson addressed the media, Rizzo intercepted him and loudly demanded to know why the Nats had failed to hold runners. Johnson yelled back, telling Rizzo that if he wanted, the GM could run the team. The screaming went on within earshot of reporters waiting to talk to Johnson on the other side of a door. Rizzo had always heard how smart Johnson was when he hired him as an adviser in 2009; he installed him as the Washington manager in the middle of the 2011 season. As Johnson yelled, Rizzo snapped back, "A really good baseball man once told me that a good general manager watches over his manager."
"Who?" Johnson demanded.
"You!" Rizzo said. With that, the two men flushed out all of their anger and moved on.
Johnson says he and Rizzo have been in lockstep in the handling of Strasburg, believing that they are doing what's right for the pitcher and the organization. But it was Rizzo who stepped up to take responsibility. "Mike has rough edges, but he's very stubborn," Kasten says. "He has no trouble standing in front of that train. I think Mike's probably unhappy about the kind of attention he's gotten. But it doesn't worry him, and it doesn't bother him."
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WHEN RIZZO MADE his decision last winter to limit Strasburg to roughly 160 innings, he based it on precedent: Zimmermann came back from Tommy John surgery under similar parameters. Before the season started, the Nats talked about holding back Strasburg's availability in different ways but decided that using him from the outset of the season, with some intermittent days of rest, was best. The second-guessing Rizzo has endured is the result, because it ensured Strasburg couldn't pitch in the postseason. But Rizzo points out how different the context was last winter: The team had not been in the postseason since moving to DC in 2005, and to backdate Strasburg's innings from the end of October would have been presumptuous and a little ludicrous. The Nationals franchise, after all, hadn't finished over .500 in nine seasons. Strasburg made 28 starts before being shut down Sept. 7 after 159 innings, and Washington went 199 in those starts, which is effectively the gap between the Nationals and the second-place Braves. Without Strasburg pitching regularly, the Nationals believe, there was no guarantee they would've played well enough to secure a playoff spot Sept. 20.
What Rizzo saw in Strasburg in his last six starts was a tired pitcher. Strasburg's average fastball against San Francisco Aug. 15 was a season-low 94.4 mph, and Rizzo thought in subsequent starts Strasburg labored to generate velocity. In doing so, Rizzo says, the righthander's mechanics started to fray. His front shoulder opened too quickly, and his curveball and his changeup flattened. "He was spraying [pitches] in his delivery and couldn't finish pitches," Rizzo says. "Those are telltale signs of fatigue in someone coming back from Tommy John surgery." And those signs could lead to future injury, Rizzo says.
"The people who are having the conversations about this, they know about 10 percent of what we know," Rizzo adds. "They're not looking at the 120-plus pages of analysis" -- medical information and performance metrics, of which Rizzo won't divulge a page -- "that I have."
This summer, Rizzo explained all of this after his father confronted him. His dad listened carefully. "You're doing the right thing," Phil Rizzo finally said. "And to hell with them, with what everyone is saying."
Mike Rizzo couldn't have said it better himself.
Although he might try.
The sports universe may never grow accustomed to this kind of deferred gratification. Here's former pitcher and former Nats color man Rob Dibble on Fox Sports Radio this August: "You don't get second chances in life and/or professional sports. The arrogance of Mike Rizzo to think, Oh, we're gonna have this long run." Dibble went on, "He's telling everybody, he knows more than orthopedic surgeons, pitching coaches, everybody." The commenters on sports blogs have been less diplomatic. "The fans here in DC think Rizzo is a fat, stupid naysayer," wrote someone on HardballTalk in late August. And the reaction isn't any better at the stadium. "Hey, Rizzo!" a fan yelled from the stands recently as the Nationals took batting practice in Atlanta. "What are ya doin'??!!"
ESPN: The Mag
Chad Millman talks with Nationals GM Mike Rizzo about his decision to sit Stephen Strasburg and Seth Wickersham about his story on Dan Snyder in the latest DC issue.
More Podcasts »
Rizzo, wearing a sport coat over an open collar and staring into the cage, didn't appear to hear this one voice among the many. He is impossible to miss, as conspicuous as a bouncer. With a goatee and his shaved head, he looks like he would be the first shoulder through the door in an episode of Cops, and when he mentions that he's Italian, he does so intending to explain his passion and his temper -- a temper that has surfaced throughout this testy season.
Rizzo understands that if the Nationals fail to win the World Series, his decision to limit Strasburg to roughly 160 innings, effectively benching his ace in early September, will be second-guessed into the future and beyond his lifetime, portrayed as a blunder ranking somewhere between the Red Sox's trade of Babe Ruth and Richard Nixon's failure to not burn the tapes. Everybody has questioned Rizzo's choice, including the Nationals' senior adviser to the GM -- Mike Rizzo's own father.
"Pitch him," Phil Rizzo barked at his son earlier in the year, in the typically blunt manner the Rizzos use. Like a lot of others in the game, Phil advised his son to ignore this new theory -- that young aces are vulnerable to injury when tired and should be shut down when they've pitched a certain number of innings -- and to keep Strasburg on the mound.
The Nationals franchise, after all, hadn't been in the playoffs in three decades, and their phenomenal, almost magical and still-unfolding 2012 season did not guarantee a world championship, much less perennial contention. Shutting down Strasburg didn't really promise good health for Strasburg either -- his delivery puts a lot of stress on his elbow, regardless of the innings he's pitched -- and also ran the risk of alienating him. Strasburg himself told reporters this summer that he was upset with Rizzo's decision; it's impossible to predict how it will impact his relationship with the organization.
Mike Rizzo listened to his father, listened to the other dissenters. Absorbed their comments. And shrugged them off. He's changed nothing. "I sleep like a baby," Rizzo says in mid-September, "knowing we've done the right thing for Stephen Strasburg, and in a roundabout way, for the Washington Nationals. I wouldn't be doing my job properly if I did it any other way."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[+] Enlarge
Rob Tringali for ESPN The Magazine
Rizzo listens to his critics -- and then shrugs them off.THE NATIONALS MIGHT be good enough to win without Strasburg anyway. That's because of the depth of their roster, constructed almost entirely by Rizzo, who describes his executive philosophy as 60 percent to 70 percent scouting and 30 percent to 40 percent Moneyball. Rizzo sat in the cold in Wisconsin to watch a college pitcher named Jordan Zimmermann (who's blossomed into a star), stuck with shortstop Ian Desmond (who made the All-Star team this year) through ugly defensive development, encouraged the Nationals to invest $126 million in Jayson Werth (who was a World Series champion), signed first baseman Adam LaRoche (who's an MVP candidate), traded last winter for Gio Gonzalez (a favorite for the Cy Young) and brought along Strasburg and phenom outfielder Bryce Harper (whom Rizzo called up in April, sooner than everyone else in baseball favored). With days left in the regular season, the Nationals held the best record in baseball, had one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, and only two other teams had scored more runs since the All-Star break.
He's built the team he wanted through blunt honesty. Werth was on the road toward signing with Boston when he met Rizzo and Nationals owners Ted and Mark Lerner in November 2010. Werth was surprised by Rizzo's directness. "I had never met a GM like that," Werth says. "A straight shooter. A lot of the GMs I've known in the past are kind of the opposite -- you don't know what to believe. Mike came across as very honest. Very passionate about the organization."
Rizzo targeted Gonzalez when Oakland made the pitcher available because Rizzo thought (that with a slight adjustment -- slowing down Gonzalez's delivery -- the lefthander could ascend from a really good young pitcher into an elite starter, complementing righties Strasburg and Zimmermann. Rizzo worked quickly with Oakland GM Billy Beane, who likes dealing with the Washington GM because Rizzo is unafraid, unlike some of their peers. Rizzo and the Nationals (were the lead bidders the whole time, Beane says. "He's very straightforward and very decisive. He doesn't take the approach that it's got to be a zero-sum deal -- 'I win, you lose.'" Washington gave up what rival executives thought to be a significant package: prospect pitchers Tommy Milone, Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole and catcher Derek Norris.
Still, Rizzo was ecstatic. He called Gonzalez afterward and raised the idea of a longer-term contract. "He was like, 'Come on over and let's get something going,' " Gonzalez recalls of the five-year, $42 million contract he ultimately signed. The GM, Gonzalez says, is like "a ring guy" in boxing. "He's going to promote you, he'll get you going. He's like Mickey in Rocky." This season, Gonzalez was the majors' first pitcher to win 20 games.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BASEBALL'S FRONT OFFICES are increasingly filled with Ivy League wunderkinds. But there is nothing Harvard about Rizzo, whose path to one of baseball's GM jobs began at a kitchen table in a bungalow on Chicago's Waveland Avenue. That's where his father ended his first dream.
Mike Rizzo had been drafted in the 22nd round by the Angels in 1982, and he played infield, hitting .247 in 171 games in three seasons of Class-A ball. In 1985, he was released. He was 24 years old then and intended to sign with another organization and work his way, somehow, to the big leagues. But Phil Rizzo -- who had played six years in the minors himself in the 1950s -- sat him down on one of the steel padded chairs in the family home and told him flatly: I don't think you're good enough to play in the major leagues.
That crushed Mike. But he listened, because he knew his father was honest and knowledgeable, and because Phil's words matched the facts: Mike really hadn't progressed through the minors.
Mike Rizzo got a degree from the University of Illinois, then became an area scout for the White Sox -- the lowest rung in major league baseball's chain of command -- and worked his way up. It wasn't until Rizzo was 37 years old that the Arizona Diamondbacks hired him for his first front office job. As scouting director, Rizzo helped build the Diamondbacks' farm system into one of the best in the majors -- Baseball America ranked the D-backs' prospects 29th in MLB in Rizzo's first season in his new job in 2001 and first when he left -- and he was known among his peers for definitive player evaluations, for not hiding in the safety of the middle ground. His years as a scout convinced him that big, physical pitchers had a better chance for success, so he wanted Max Scherzer in the 2006 draft, and he did not want Tim Lincecum. And he burned to build a team of his own vision. "The only negative I heard about Mike was that he was too ambitious," says Stan Kasten, the former president of the Nationals, who hired Rizzo as an assistant GM in 2006. When Jim Bowden resigned as Washington GM in 2009, Rizzo took over.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TO THE NATS, Rizzo distinguishes himself as a players' general manager -- very different from a lot of GMs, who prefer distance between themselves and their players. In May 2011, a Nationals game ended on a disputed call, and Rizzo watched his players and the umpires bark at one another as they exited the field. He sensed there would be a postgame confrontation. Sure enough, longtime catcher Ivan Rodriguez was outside the umpires' room in full uniform. Concerned that Rodriguez might do something that would result in a suspension, Rizzo stepped in and went nose to nose with one of the umps, Phil Cuzzi. It wasn't until after the umpires asked security for a Nationals media guide that Cuzzi realized he had been trading F-bombs with Washington's GM.
Rodriguez was not suspended -- but Rizzo was, for a game, and he was fined. Joe Torre, MLB's dean of discipline, told Rizzo this was a first.
Then there was the time Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels drilled Harper with a fastball. This was in May, in the 19-year-old's eighth game in the bigs. Afterward, Hamels told reporters he had hit the rookie on purpose, welcoming him in an "old-school" manner. After reading Hamels' quotes the next morning, Rizzo erupted, telling The Washington Post, "I've never seen a more classless, gutless chicken [bleep] act in my 30 years in baseball ... Cole Hamels says he's old-school? He's the polar opposite of old-school. He's fake tough. He thinks he's going to intimidate us after hitting our 19-year-old rookie who's eight games into the big leagues? He doesn't know who he's dealing with."
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Rob Tringali for ESPN The Magazine
The Nationals enjoyed an almost magical regular season thanks to the roster Rizzo created.Harper saw the quotes on television, and the next time he bumped into Rizzo, he thanked him "for battling for me. Having a guy like that on our side is huge for us."
Says Gonzalez: "He was looking out for Bryce, the same way he's looking out for Stras. It's almost like he's looking out for his kids." Says Werth, "He's a big bulldog. A watchdog."
Nats manager Davey Johnson can relate. In late August, Philadelphia swept the Nats -- the Phillies ran the bases aggressively -- and before Johnson addressed the media, Rizzo intercepted him and loudly demanded to know why the Nats had failed to hold runners. Johnson yelled back, telling Rizzo that if he wanted, the GM could run the team. The screaming went on within earshot of reporters waiting to talk to Johnson on the other side of a door. Rizzo had always heard how smart Johnson was when he hired him as an adviser in 2009; he installed him as the Washington manager in the middle of the 2011 season. As Johnson yelled, Rizzo snapped back, "A really good baseball man once told me that a good general manager watches over his manager."
"Who?" Johnson demanded.
"You!" Rizzo said. With that, the two men flushed out all of their anger and moved on.
Johnson says he and Rizzo have been in lockstep in the handling of Strasburg, believing that they are doing what's right for the pitcher and the organization. But it was Rizzo who stepped up to take responsibility. "Mike has rough edges, but he's very stubborn," Kasten says. "He has no trouble standing in front of that train. I think Mike's probably unhappy about the kind of attention he's gotten. But it doesn't worry him, and it doesn't bother him."
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WHEN RIZZO MADE his decision last winter to limit Strasburg to roughly 160 innings, he based it on precedent: Zimmermann came back from Tommy John surgery under similar parameters. Before the season started, the Nats talked about holding back Strasburg's availability in different ways but decided that using him from the outset of the season, with some intermittent days of rest, was best. The second-guessing Rizzo has endured is the result, because it ensured Strasburg couldn't pitch in the postseason. But Rizzo points out how different the context was last winter: The team had not been in the postseason since moving to DC in 2005, and to backdate Strasburg's innings from the end of October would have been presumptuous and a little ludicrous. The Nationals franchise, after all, hadn't finished over .500 in nine seasons. Strasburg made 28 starts before being shut down Sept. 7 after 159 innings, and Washington went 199 in those starts, which is effectively the gap between the Nationals and the second-place Braves. Without Strasburg pitching regularly, the Nationals believe, there was no guarantee they would've played well enough to secure a playoff spot Sept. 20.
What Rizzo saw in Strasburg in his last six starts was a tired pitcher. Strasburg's average fastball against San Francisco Aug. 15 was a season-low 94.4 mph, and Rizzo thought in subsequent starts Strasburg labored to generate velocity. In doing so, Rizzo says, the righthander's mechanics started to fray. His front shoulder opened too quickly, and his curveball and his changeup flattened. "He was spraying [pitches] in his delivery and couldn't finish pitches," Rizzo says. "Those are telltale signs of fatigue in someone coming back from Tommy John surgery." And those signs could lead to future injury, Rizzo says.
"The people who are having the conversations about this, they know about 10 percent of what we know," Rizzo adds. "They're not looking at the 120-plus pages of analysis" -- medical information and performance metrics, of which Rizzo won't divulge a page -- "that I have."
This summer, Rizzo explained all of this after his father confronted him. His dad listened carefully. "You're doing the right thing," Phil Rizzo finally said. "And to hell with them, with what everyone is saying."
Mike Rizzo couldn't have said it better himself.
Although he might try.
What's next for Atlanta and Texas?
After more than seven months and 162 games, the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers won 93 and 94 games, respectively.
Their seasons ended in the span of three hours, as they became the first teams to lose in MLB’s new wild-card elimination game format. Such is the new reality for wild-card berth winners.
This also means the offseason has arrived for the Braves and Rangers. So let’s take a look at what both teams need and the possible moves that could improve their clubs or at least shore up the weaknesses.
Texas Rangers
Free agents: Josh Hamilton, OF; Mike Napoli, C; Mike Adams, RHR; Koji Uehara, RHR; Mark Lowe, RHR; Roy Oswalt, RHR; Scott Feldman, RHR (club option)
Needs/targets
The Rangers will lose several significant arms from their bullpen. They hope to get Neftali Feliz back, but both he and Alexi Ogando have told the Rangers their preference is to start, so the Rangers must address those bullpen losses. The Rangers also must figure out a plan for top prospect Jurickson Profar. Is he ready for the big leagues, and, if so, would he or fellow shortstop Elvis Andrus possibly move to center field? But their biggest decisions this offseason will be regarding free agents Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Will the Rangers re-sign or replace them? Here are several possible free-agent targets, including Hamilton and Napoli:
Josh Hamilton: Should Hamilton look as if he can land an 8- to 10-year contract, the Rangers will not match the offer. However, if Hamilton’s best offer ends up somewhere in the 4- or 5-year range at approximately $23-$25 million per season, there is a good possibility that he’ll return to Texas.
Zack Greinke: The Rangers could use one more high-end starter, and Yu Darvish and Greinke would give them a lethal 1-2 punch and might free up lefty Derek Holland to be traded for a younger bat if they can’t bring back Hamilton.
Kyle Lohse: Lohse’s sinker and ability to get ground balls should play well at the Ballpark in Arlington and, as just mentioned above, allow the Rangers to trade one of their young starters for a young corner infielder if they have to replace Hamilton.
Mike Napoli: The Rangers would like to re-sign Napoli. However, they might not commit to a deal near the four-year, $44 million range that he might be able to get this fall.
A.J. Pierzynski: If the Rangers aren’t able to re-sign Napoli, then Pierzynski, who is coming off a career year, could be a short-term fit and provide another left-handed bat to the lineup.
Joel Peralta: He was one of the best eighth-inning relievers in the second half of last year for the Tampa Bay Rays and would be a good short-term fit for the Rangers as they try to upgrade the depth of their bullpen. But make no mistake, Peralta definitely will not be the only bullpen arm Texas will be chasing.
Trades: If Texas decides to trade Holland or another young starter, here are some of the players they are likely to target in a deal:
Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-backs say it is more than likely that Upton will not be traded, however, with the strong Rangers farm system and a deal that is centered on third baseman Mike Olt, it is possible these two teams could match up.
Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer or Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: The Royals are desperate for young starting pitching, and a package centered on and starting with Holland and Mitch Moreland might be worth a conversation if Texas can’t re-sign Hamilton. The problem is that the Rangers have a lot of good young bats, not arms, which is what the Royals really need, so they might not be a match.
Travis d’Arnaud, Toronto Blue Jays: The Rangers scouts love this top catching prospect the Blue Jays acquired in the Roy Halladay deal a few years ago. Toronto probably is more interested in dealing J.P. Arencibia, who might make some sense in a lesser deal if Texas can’t re-sign Napoli.
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Atlanta Braves
Free agents: Michael Bourn, CF; Matt Diaz, OF; Eric Hinske, 1B/OF; Lyle Overbay, 1B
Needs/targets
This is an organization with staying power, and, under the leadership of Frank Wren, it will be able to regroup and put together another postseason-worthy team. The Braves must try to re-sign Bourn or find a replacement for him. The Braves are expected to pick up the $12 million option on Brian McCann and the $9 million option on Tim Hudson shortly after the World Series.
Ben Revere, Minnesota Twins: His best position is center field, and the Twins are playing him in right in deference to Denard Span. He’s just scratching the surface of his potential after hitting .294 with 40 stolen bases this past season and would top the list of Braves trade targets if they can't re-sign Bourn. Below are some other possibilities.
Peter Bourjos, Los Angeles Angels: Gold Glove-caliber center field with blazing speed. His bat should improve, but he’s still a bottom-of-the-order hitter.
Denard Span, Minnesota Twins: The Braves have always liked him, but staying healthy has been a challenge for him the past two seasons.
Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks are prepared to go with Adam Eaton in center and are looking to trade this power/speed/K machine.
Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies: Fowler had his breakout year this year, and the Rockies won’t look to trade him unless they can get significant starting pitching in return.
Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds: If the Reds could sign Bourn or trade for a B.J. Upton-type center fielder, they would be willing to move Stubbs, an above-average center fielder who comes with a ton of strikeouts.
Craig Gentry, Texas Rangers: The Rangers are convinced he’s just a platoon player, but some scouts think the bat will come. However, there’s never been a question about his special defense.
Life after Chipper
The Braves can replace the surefire Hall of Famer by signing or trading for a third baseman, or they could move Martin Prado from left field to third base and go after a left fielder instead.
Bourn is represented by Scott Boras, which means negotiations won’t be easy. Here are possible replacements for Chipper Jones at third base:
David Wright, New York Mets: It’s OK to dream, isn’t it?
Chase Headley, San Diego Padres: The Padres were willing to listen to offers at the trade deadline, and the Braves do have a strong farm system, which makes for a good match.
Mike Olt, Texas Rangers: The Rangers have Adrian Beltre signed for four more years, but I’m just not sure Texas matches up with Atlanta as well as San Diego does.
Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers: With Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder signed to long-term contracts, there might be a top prospect-for-top prospect deal that could be discussed here.
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies: The Rockies soured on him some this year, and, with his stock down a tad, it’s worth a phone call.
Here are some possible trade pieces in left field if the Braves decide to move Prado to third base:
Josh Willingham, Minnesota Twins: Willingham finished the year with a .366 OBP with 35 home runs and 110 RBIs, and the Twins desperately need starting pitching if they want any chance to compete. Considering Atlanta’s pitching depth, there should be a match here.
Myers or Gordon, Royals: This deal probably depends on how much the Royals like Julio Teheran or Mike Minor.
Logan Morrison, Miami Marlins: We keep hearing that Morrison has worn out his welcome with the Fish. Could a move 700 miles north be in store?
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: Soriano would like to get to the postseason once more before he retires, and that certainly won’t be with the Cubs. If the Cubs are willing to eat most of the remaining two years and $36 million left on his contract, there could be a prospect deal here.
Diamondbacks outfielders: They have five and will listen to offers for all five, and there definitely is a fit here for at least four of them. There probably isn’t a match, however, for Justin Upton. The Braves don’t have enough to acquire him.
Their seasons ended in the span of three hours, as they became the first teams to lose in MLB’s new wild-card elimination game format. Such is the new reality for wild-card berth winners.
This also means the offseason has arrived for the Braves and Rangers. So let’s take a look at what both teams need and the possible moves that could improve their clubs or at least shore up the weaknesses.
Texas Rangers
Free agents: Josh Hamilton, OF; Mike Napoli, C; Mike Adams, RHR; Koji Uehara, RHR; Mark Lowe, RHR; Roy Oswalt, RHR; Scott Feldman, RHR (club option)
Needs/targets
The Rangers will lose several significant arms from their bullpen. They hope to get Neftali Feliz back, but both he and Alexi Ogando have told the Rangers their preference is to start, so the Rangers must address those bullpen losses. The Rangers also must figure out a plan for top prospect Jurickson Profar. Is he ready for the big leagues, and, if so, would he or fellow shortstop Elvis Andrus possibly move to center field? But their biggest decisions this offseason will be regarding free agents Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Will the Rangers re-sign or replace them? Here are several possible free-agent targets, including Hamilton and Napoli:
Josh Hamilton: Should Hamilton look as if he can land an 8- to 10-year contract, the Rangers will not match the offer. However, if Hamilton’s best offer ends up somewhere in the 4- or 5-year range at approximately $23-$25 million per season, there is a good possibility that he’ll return to Texas.
Zack Greinke: The Rangers could use one more high-end starter, and Yu Darvish and Greinke would give them a lethal 1-2 punch and might free up lefty Derek Holland to be traded for a younger bat if they can’t bring back Hamilton.
Kyle Lohse: Lohse’s sinker and ability to get ground balls should play well at the Ballpark in Arlington and, as just mentioned above, allow the Rangers to trade one of their young starters for a young corner infielder if they have to replace Hamilton.
Mike Napoli: The Rangers would like to re-sign Napoli. However, they might not commit to a deal near the four-year, $44 million range that he might be able to get this fall.
A.J. Pierzynski: If the Rangers aren’t able to re-sign Napoli, then Pierzynski, who is coming off a career year, could be a short-term fit and provide another left-handed bat to the lineup.
Joel Peralta: He was one of the best eighth-inning relievers in the second half of last year for the Tampa Bay Rays and would be a good short-term fit for the Rangers as they try to upgrade the depth of their bullpen. But make no mistake, Peralta definitely will not be the only bullpen arm Texas will be chasing.
Trades: If Texas decides to trade Holland or another young starter, here are some of the players they are likely to target in a deal:
Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-backs say it is more than likely that Upton will not be traded, however, with the strong Rangers farm system and a deal that is centered on third baseman Mike Olt, it is possible these two teams could match up.
Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer or Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: The Royals are desperate for young starting pitching, and a package centered on and starting with Holland and Mitch Moreland might be worth a conversation if Texas can’t re-sign Hamilton. The problem is that the Rangers have a lot of good young bats, not arms, which is what the Royals really need, so they might not be a match.
Travis d’Arnaud, Toronto Blue Jays: The Rangers scouts love this top catching prospect the Blue Jays acquired in the Roy Halladay deal a few years ago. Toronto probably is more interested in dealing J.P. Arencibia, who might make some sense in a lesser deal if Texas can’t re-sign Napoli.
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Atlanta Braves
Free agents: Michael Bourn, CF; Matt Diaz, OF; Eric Hinske, 1B/OF; Lyle Overbay, 1B
Needs/targets
This is an organization with staying power, and, under the leadership of Frank Wren, it will be able to regroup and put together another postseason-worthy team. The Braves must try to re-sign Bourn or find a replacement for him. The Braves are expected to pick up the $12 million option on Brian McCann and the $9 million option on Tim Hudson shortly after the World Series.
Ben Revere, Minnesota Twins: His best position is center field, and the Twins are playing him in right in deference to Denard Span. He’s just scratching the surface of his potential after hitting .294 with 40 stolen bases this past season and would top the list of Braves trade targets if they can't re-sign Bourn. Below are some other possibilities.
Peter Bourjos, Los Angeles Angels: Gold Glove-caliber center field with blazing speed. His bat should improve, but he’s still a bottom-of-the-order hitter.
Denard Span, Minnesota Twins: The Braves have always liked him, but staying healthy has been a challenge for him the past two seasons.
Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks are prepared to go with Adam Eaton in center and are looking to trade this power/speed/K machine.
Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies: Fowler had his breakout year this year, and the Rockies won’t look to trade him unless they can get significant starting pitching in return.
Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds: If the Reds could sign Bourn or trade for a B.J. Upton-type center fielder, they would be willing to move Stubbs, an above-average center fielder who comes with a ton of strikeouts.
Craig Gentry, Texas Rangers: The Rangers are convinced he’s just a platoon player, but some scouts think the bat will come. However, there’s never been a question about his special defense.
Life after Chipper
The Braves can replace the surefire Hall of Famer by signing or trading for a third baseman, or they could move Martin Prado from left field to third base and go after a left fielder instead.
Bourn is represented by Scott Boras, which means negotiations won’t be easy. Here are possible replacements for Chipper Jones at third base:
David Wright, New York Mets: It’s OK to dream, isn’t it?
Chase Headley, San Diego Padres: The Padres were willing to listen to offers at the trade deadline, and the Braves do have a strong farm system, which makes for a good match.
Mike Olt, Texas Rangers: The Rangers have Adrian Beltre signed for four more years, but I’m just not sure Texas matches up with Atlanta as well as San Diego does.
Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers: With Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder signed to long-term contracts, there might be a top prospect-for-top prospect deal that could be discussed here.
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies: The Rockies soured on him some this year, and, with his stock down a tad, it’s worth a phone call.
Here are some possible trade pieces in left field if the Braves decide to move Prado to third base:
Josh Willingham, Minnesota Twins: Willingham finished the year with a .366 OBP with 35 home runs and 110 RBIs, and the Twins desperately need starting pitching if they want any chance to compete. Considering Atlanta’s pitching depth, there should be a match here.
Myers or Gordon, Royals: This deal probably depends on how much the Royals like Julio Teheran or Mike Minor.
Logan Morrison, Miami Marlins: We keep hearing that Morrison has worn out his welcome with the Fish. Could a move 700 miles north be in store?
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: Soriano would like to get to the postseason once more before he retires, and that certainly won’t be with the Cubs. If the Cubs are willing to eat most of the remaining two years and $36 million left on his contract, there could be a prospect deal here.
Diamondbacks outfielders: They have five and will listen to offers for all five, and there definitely is a fit here for at least four of them. There probably isn’t a match, however, for Justin Upton. The Braves don’t have enough to acquire him.
10 guys I am most excited to scout in AFL.
The Arizona Fall League's 2012 season starts Tuesday, with two afternoon games in Phoenix and Peoria and a night game in Scottsdale at Salt River Fields. As usual, the league is full of prospects, both established names and players who have made or are on the verge of making moves up (or down) my rankings. The talent this year is heavily skewed towards bats, so don't be surprised to see some high-scoring games over the next six weeks.
Here's a ranking of the 10 players I'm most interested in seeing this year, as well as lists of other players to watch from each of the six AFL rosters. I've omitted some very good prospects from the top 10 because I've seen them too recently or otherwise feel like I've got a good handle on their tools and skills, not because I am down on them as prospects.
1. Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs/Mesa
The ninth overall pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft out of a Jacksonville, Fla., high school, Baez has huge raw power due to very quick wrists that allow him to drive the ball to all fields, but was widely seen as a candidate to move off shortstop in pro ball. Improved instruction and increased effort on his part now have that flipped around, with pro scouts who got their first looks at him this year giving him a good chance to stay at the position long-term.
The Puerto Rican-born Baez reached high Class A this year at age 19 but played less than a full season after spending April and most of May in extended spring training. The main area of his game that still needs work is patience, as his approach and his stat line have a whiff of Josh Vitters about them.
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals/Salt River
Rendon can hit, he can play the heck out of third, and he has some power from pure bat speed, but his nickname might as well be Pre-existing Condition, with a shoulder problem in 2011 and now three major injuries to his ankles (of which he only has two) since he started college, the most recent one taking out half of his 2012 season.
With Ryan Zimmerman's defense and overall durability both showing some cracks this year, there could be an opportunity for Rendon at third that wasn't there when he was first drafted -- but he has to stay healthy enough to take advantage of it, too.
3. Trayce Thompson, OF, Chicago White Sox/Salt River
Thompson was the White Sox's second-round pick in 2009, a rare (for them) high pick spent on a high school player. He was a risky pick at that, as Thompson was all tools but very little polish, and perhaps more famous for his lineage (his father, Mychal, apparently played some basketball) than for his baseball ability. Thompson has developed slowly, but enough that he's now one of the best defensive outfield prospects in the minors, and his strikeout rates have hovered merely at "scary" but haven't risen to "fatal." He has to hit just enough to get to his raw power to become a potential everyday player because of his defense.
4. Billy Hamilton, SS/CF, Cincinnati Reds/Peoria
Hamilton is switching positions from shortstop to center field in 2013, and will play some of both positions in the AFL. I think center is the ideal position for him, as he was always a little stretched at short due to a lack of arm strength, but center field isn't just about speed but about reads and routes, something he'll need to learn starting out here. Hamilton set the minor league record with 155 stolen bases this year, and I would like to watch him steal with impunity -- and he'll get all of the league's catchers to try to show their best throwing times to second base.
5. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa Bay Rays/Phoenix
Long a favorite of mine for his defense, speed and solid approach at the plate, Lee started the year horribly at Double-A Montgomery before the Rays worked with him to stop his hands from "leaking" at the plate -- in other words, sliding forward prematurely -- and the results were evident in his performance, as he added 178 points of OPS from the first half to the second. I've seen him quite a bit over the years but any time a prospect of this caliber makes a mechanical change, it's great to get a fresh look.
6. Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers/Mesa
I saw Puig in only one game in the Arizona Rookie League, where he hit a ball to the warning track in Scottsdale Stadium despite failing to fully square it up. The 21-year-old Cuban prospect received a $42 million, seven-year deal from the Dodgers in June, surprising most other teams involved in the bidding, but showed up in Glendale in July in much better shape than advertised. I still don't feel like I have a great handle on his approach or his hit tool, between the single game I saw, the workout before that, and his very brief time in the hitter-friendly Cal League.
7. Jarred Cosart, rhp, Houston Astros/Mesa
There's very little impact starting pitching heading to the AFL, at least right now, with Cosart just edging out Jimmy Nelson and Robbie Erlin on my pitching watch list. Cosart has the biggest arm of the potential starters, touching 98 mph on occasion with an out-pitch breaking ball, but tends to throw well across his body, a bad sign for future arm health, especially with Cosart's history of minor injuries. I'd like to see where his delivery is, how his changeup has progressed and overall how close he might be to helping Houston's big-league club.
8. Nick Castellanos, 3B/RF, Detroit Tigers/Mesa
Castellanos is more than athletic enough to handle third base, but the Tigers seem content with Miguel Cabrera's poor defense there and moved Castellanos to right field for the final month of the 2012 season. His bat will play anywhere, but it's more valuable at third, of course.
Castellanos told me at the Futures Game that the biggest difference he saw in Double-A pitchers was their ability to locate at the edges of the strike zone, or just outside of it, where A-ball pitchers lacked that degree of command. That showed up in his low walk rate at the higher level, something I'll be watching with him this fall.
9. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros/Mesa
Springer was a rarity out of the University of Connecticut, a potential five-tool college position player who also brought good plate discipline and strong performance to the table. The power and speed were on display in the Cal League this year, although his contact rate wasn't good -- 131 K's in 500 PAs -- and he did most of his damage in the very hitter-friendly home park of Lancaster.
In a scant month in Double-A, he struggled, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances. I'll be looking at Springer's overall approach, but especially his plan with two strikes (he really didn't have one in college) and where he's starting his hands before he swings.
10. Max Stassi, C, Oakland Athletics/Phoenix
I loved Stassi out of the 2009 draft as a catcher who could catch, throw and hit for power, but a nagging shoulder problem that popped up his senior year of high school led to surgery that wiped out most of his 2011 season.
The 21-year-old played in only 81 games this year due to an April ankle injury and an August foot injury that ended his season about four weeks early, so he needs the reps. His shoulder is reportedly healthy again, and he showed more power during 2012 (.468 slugging at high-A Stockton), but needs to play a full season next year and show more with the bat. This will be my first look at him since spring training of 2009, and in a major league environment where a catcher who hits .260/.310/.400 is above replacement-level, I like Stassi's chances to regain his old luster.
Other prospects to watch:
Mesa: Onelki Garcia, LHP, Dodgers; Jonathan Schoop, IF, Orioles; Joc Pederson, OF, Dodgers.
Phoenix: Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Brewers; JT Realmuto, C, Marlins; Hunter Morris, 1B, Brewers; Eduard Salcedo, 3B, Braves; Richie Shaffer, 3B, Rays; Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins
Peoria: Robbie Erlin, LHP, Padres; Mike Zunino, C, Mariners; Cody Asche, 3B, Phillies; Stefan Romero, 2B, Mariners; Cory Spangenberg, 2B, Padres; Jeudy Valdez, SS/2B, Padres; Rymer Liriano, OF, Padres
Salt River: Matt Davidson, 3B, Diamondbacks; Chris Owings, SS, Diamondbacks; Carlos Sanchez, 3B, White Sox; Jake Marisnick, OF, Blue Jays; Brian Goodwin, OF, Nationals
Scottsdale: Victor Black, RHP, Pirates; Mark Montgomery, RHP, Yankees; Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Angels; Ronny Rodriguez, SS, Indians; Randal Grichuk, OF, Angels
Surprise: Seth Blair, RHP, Cardinals; Tim Melville, RHP, Royals; Orlando Calixte, SS, Royals; Luis Sardinas, SS, Rangers; Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals; Bryce Brentz, OF, Red Sox; Cesar Puello, OF, Mets.
Here's a ranking of the 10 players I'm most interested in seeing this year, as well as lists of other players to watch from each of the six AFL rosters. I've omitted some very good prospects from the top 10 because I've seen them too recently or otherwise feel like I've got a good handle on their tools and skills, not because I am down on them as prospects.
1. Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs/Mesa
The ninth overall pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft out of a Jacksonville, Fla., high school, Baez has huge raw power due to very quick wrists that allow him to drive the ball to all fields, but was widely seen as a candidate to move off shortstop in pro ball. Improved instruction and increased effort on his part now have that flipped around, with pro scouts who got their first looks at him this year giving him a good chance to stay at the position long-term.
The Puerto Rican-born Baez reached high Class A this year at age 19 but played less than a full season after spending April and most of May in extended spring training. The main area of his game that still needs work is patience, as his approach and his stat line have a whiff of Josh Vitters about them.
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals/Salt River
Rendon can hit, he can play the heck out of third, and he has some power from pure bat speed, but his nickname might as well be Pre-existing Condition, with a shoulder problem in 2011 and now three major injuries to his ankles (of which he only has two) since he started college, the most recent one taking out half of his 2012 season.
With Ryan Zimmerman's defense and overall durability both showing some cracks this year, there could be an opportunity for Rendon at third that wasn't there when he was first drafted -- but he has to stay healthy enough to take advantage of it, too.
3. Trayce Thompson, OF, Chicago White Sox/Salt River
Thompson was the White Sox's second-round pick in 2009, a rare (for them) high pick spent on a high school player. He was a risky pick at that, as Thompson was all tools but very little polish, and perhaps more famous for his lineage (his father, Mychal, apparently played some basketball) than for his baseball ability. Thompson has developed slowly, but enough that he's now one of the best defensive outfield prospects in the minors, and his strikeout rates have hovered merely at "scary" but haven't risen to "fatal." He has to hit just enough to get to his raw power to become a potential everyday player because of his defense.
4. Billy Hamilton, SS/CF, Cincinnati Reds/Peoria
Hamilton is switching positions from shortstop to center field in 2013, and will play some of both positions in the AFL. I think center is the ideal position for him, as he was always a little stretched at short due to a lack of arm strength, but center field isn't just about speed but about reads and routes, something he'll need to learn starting out here. Hamilton set the minor league record with 155 stolen bases this year, and I would like to watch him steal with impunity -- and he'll get all of the league's catchers to try to show their best throwing times to second base.
5. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa Bay Rays/Phoenix
Long a favorite of mine for his defense, speed and solid approach at the plate, Lee started the year horribly at Double-A Montgomery before the Rays worked with him to stop his hands from "leaking" at the plate -- in other words, sliding forward prematurely -- and the results were evident in his performance, as he added 178 points of OPS from the first half to the second. I've seen him quite a bit over the years but any time a prospect of this caliber makes a mechanical change, it's great to get a fresh look.
6. Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers/Mesa
I saw Puig in only one game in the Arizona Rookie League, where he hit a ball to the warning track in Scottsdale Stadium despite failing to fully square it up. The 21-year-old Cuban prospect received a $42 million, seven-year deal from the Dodgers in June, surprising most other teams involved in the bidding, but showed up in Glendale in July in much better shape than advertised. I still don't feel like I have a great handle on his approach or his hit tool, between the single game I saw, the workout before that, and his very brief time in the hitter-friendly Cal League.
7. Jarred Cosart, rhp, Houston Astros/Mesa
There's very little impact starting pitching heading to the AFL, at least right now, with Cosart just edging out Jimmy Nelson and Robbie Erlin on my pitching watch list. Cosart has the biggest arm of the potential starters, touching 98 mph on occasion with an out-pitch breaking ball, but tends to throw well across his body, a bad sign for future arm health, especially with Cosart's history of minor injuries. I'd like to see where his delivery is, how his changeup has progressed and overall how close he might be to helping Houston's big-league club.
8. Nick Castellanos, 3B/RF, Detroit Tigers/Mesa
Castellanos is more than athletic enough to handle third base, but the Tigers seem content with Miguel Cabrera's poor defense there and moved Castellanos to right field for the final month of the 2012 season. His bat will play anywhere, but it's more valuable at third, of course.
Castellanos told me at the Futures Game that the biggest difference he saw in Double-A pitchers was their ability to locate at the edges of the strike zone, or just outside of it, where A-ball pitchers lacked that degree of command. That showed up in his low walk rate at the higher level, something I'll be watching with him this fall.
9. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros/Mesa
Springer was a rarity out of the University of Connecticut, a potential five-tool college position player who also brought good plate discipline and strong performance to the table. The power and speed were on display in the Cal League this year, although his contact rate wasn't good -- 131 K's in 500 PAs -- and he did most of his damage in the very hitter-friendly home park of Lancaster.
In a scant month in Double-A, he struggled, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances. I'll be looking at Springer's overall approach, but especially his plan with two strikes (he really didn't have one in college) and where he's starting his hands before he swings.
10. Max Stassi, C, Oakland Athletics/Phoenix
I loved Stassi out of the 2009 draft as a catcher who could catch, throw and hit for power, but a nagging shoulder problem that popped up his senior year of high school led to surgery that wiped out most of his 2011 season.
The 21-year-old played in only 81 games this year due to an April ankle injury and an August foot injury that ended his season about four weeks early, so he needs the reps. His shoulder is reportedly healthy again, and he showed more power during 2012 (.468 slugging at high-A Stockton), but needs to play a full season next year and show more with the bat. This will be my first look at him since spring training of 2009, and in a major league environment where a catcher who hits .260/.310/.400 is above replacement-level, I like Stassi's chances to regain his old luster.
Other prospects to watch:
Mesa: Onelki Garcia, LHP, Dodgers; Jonathan Schoop, IF, Orioles; Joc Pederson, OF, Dodgers.
Phoenix: Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Brewers; JT Realmuto, C, Marlins; Hunter Morris, 1B, Brewers; Eduard Salcedo, 3B, Braves; Richie Shaffer, 3B, Rays; Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins
Peoria: Robbie Erlin, LHP, Padres; Mike Zunino, C, Mariners; Cody Asche, 3B, Phillies; Stefan Romero, 2B, Mariners; Cory Spangenberg, 2B, Padres; Jeudy Valdez, SS/2B, Padres; Rymer Liriano, OF, Padres
Salt River: Matt Davidson, 3B, Diamondbacks; Chris Owings, SS, Diamondbacks; Carlos Sanchez, 3B, White Sox; Jake Marisnick, OF, Blue Jays; Brian Goodwin, OF, Nationals
Scottsdale: Victor Black, RHP, Pirates; Mark Montgomery, RHP, Yankees; Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Angels; Ronny Rodriguez, SS, Indians; Randal Grichuk, OF, Angels
Surprise: Seth Blair, RHP, Cardinals; Tim Melville, RHP, Royals; Orlando Calixte, SS, Royals; Luis Sardinas, SS, Rangers; Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals; Bryce Brentz, OF, Red Sox; Cesar Puello, OF, Mets.
Cardinals must stay patient.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals will square off in the NLDS. Here's a look at what to watch, who will win and why:
Key matchup: Lance Lynn vs. Ryan Zimmerman
In the regular season, few pitchers were tougher against right-handed hitters than Lynn. Among starting pitchers, no one was -- Lynn's 1.99 FIP was easily tops in the majors among starters. James Shields was second best at 2.65. Lynn wasn't nearly as good against lefties, as his 5.30 FIP can attest. But in the postseason, Lynn will be deployed in relief and, just like last year, could do significant damage.
[+] Enlarge
Steve Mitchell/US Presswire
Lynn feasts on righties, and could be asked to target Zimmerman specifically.On the other side of the coin, we have Zimmerman, who has bashed with authority since receiving a cortisone shot at the end of June. The Nats' 3-hole hitter generally is surrounded by two lefties, with Bryce Harper hitting in front of him and Adam LaRoche behind him. It's not generally a great idea to burn a pitcher who could throw multiple innings on one hitter, but if you're going to make an exception for such a move in a high leverage situation, this is it.
Cardinals X factor: Matt Holliday
Although he has one of the richest contracts in the game, and has been one of its best hitters for a while now, Holliday continually gets lost in the shuffle. Normally, Holliday is very consistent from month to month -- for his career, he is at least 20 percent better than the average hitter in each month of the season. But this year, he faded in August and September, thanks in part to a lower back injury. It's true Holliday isn't the only masher in the lineup. Yadier Molina, Allen Craig and David Freese all joined Holliday as one of the game's top 30 hitters this season (according to wRC+), but Holliday is not only the team's catalyst in the 3-hole but also is the team's best hitter against left-handed pitching, and the Nats might start three lefties if the series goes five games.
Nationals X factor: Michael Morse
Morse had almost an inverse of the season Holliday did. After a banner 2011 campaign, Morse didn't even get on the field until June, and once he did, he didn't hit. He looked as if he was turning the corner in July, but an August slump derailed that progress. In September, though, Morse once again started hitting. His monthly ISO climbed over .200 for the first and only time this season. His walk rate declined for the second straight year, but if Morse keeps up his hot hitting from September, the Nats' lineup should be imposing.
Cardinals key reliever: Edward Mujica
With Marc Rzepczynski turning in a poor second season in St. Louis, Mujica is the best bullpen arm the Cardinals have against left-handed hitters. Fernando Salas and Mitchell Boggs walk lefties far too often to be trusted options, and Jason Motte likely will be kept on ice for save situations. Mujica has generally been effective against lefties, holding them to a .244/.269/.400 line overall this season and an even better .195/.195/.244 in his brief time in St. Louis. Most encouraging is that his K/BB against lefties is 7.00 this year and 5.53 over the past three seasons, which stands in sharp contrast to the numbers for Salas and Boggs.
Nationals key reliever: Tyler Clippard
Clippard has been the workhorse in the Nats' bullpen for the past three years, and after the Brad Lidge-Henry Rodriguez closer experiment didn't work out, Washington turned to him to pick up saves. With Drew Storen taking the closer role back, though, Washington manager Davey Johnson is free to deploy Clippard wherever he chooses, which is important because Clippard typically has thrived in high-leverage situations. But the second half, in which he allowed a .788 OPS to opposing batters, was not as kind to Clippard as was the first half, when he held them to a more impressive .438 OPS. Washington needs him to rediscover his mojo in a hurry.
[+] Enlarge
Brad Mills/US Presswire
Which version of Michael Morse will we see in October?Cardinals key bench player: Matt Carpenter
It's tempting to list Lance Berkman here, but with him not at full strength, Carpenter is likely to be most trusted to be the Cardinals' weapon off the bench. Other than small samples from Pete Kozma (who is now in the starting lineup) and Berkman, Carpenter has been the only effective weapon off the St. Louis bench this year, as he hit .294/.365/.463 in a part-time role. And, although he bats left-handed, Carpenter hit 12 percent better than league average against left-handed pitchers, making him a viable candidate to pinch hit no matter who is on the mound. That is good news for the Cardinals, as they have precious little thump on the bench outside of him unless Berkman has a few more tricks up his ample sleeves.
Nationals key bench player: Roger Bernadina
Bernadina has everything you want in a bench player. With 53 stolen bases against just 11 times caught stealing in his career, he is the efficient base stealer you want late in the game. A patient hitter, Bernadina chased fewer pitches out of the zone this season; as a result, his walk rate rose to a robust 10.7 percent, so he's likely to give a good at-bat. And finally, he plays good defense. Fourteen times in September, Morse was removed for defense in the seventh inning or later, and Bernadina was usually the one who entered for him. Expect to see more of that in the postseason.
Key stat: St. Louis' 3.78 pitches per plate appearance
The Cardinals have had a great offense all season, but although their walk rate tied for eighth best in the game this season, they didn't have to work overly hard to get it -- St. Louis' 3.78 pitches seen per plate appearance was just 20th best in the game.
Residing in the soft National League Central, the Cards' offense wasn't challenged as much as it will be in the postseason, and, although Washington has a great pitching staff, St. Louis has an opportunity to make those pitchers work. Washington pitchers tossed 3.84 pitches per plate appearance, a mark that ranked 22nd in baseball. That is a touch deceiving, as one of the least efficient pitchers for Washington was Stephen Strasburg, and he won't throw in the postseason. But in Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Sean Burnett, Mike Gonzalez and Tyler Clippard, the Nats still have five pitchers who tossed more pitches per PA than the league average. The Cards need to take advantage, particularly against Gonzalez and Zimmermann.
Modest proposal: Move Carlos Beltran back in the batting order
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny devised a pretty healthy batting order this season. The best six hitters hit in the first six spots in the order, and, although that sounds elementary, it doesn't happen as frequently as it should. But in terms of handedness, the batting order is as follows -- lefty, switch hitter, righty, righty, righty, righty. In the postseason, matchups become everything, and Johnson is going to be able to match up fairly easily against that batting order. This is exacerbated by the fact that the only lefty in the order, Jon Jay, is a fixture at leadoff. Jay was pinch hit for only twice this season, and one of those times Holliday was the one who entered for him. Moving Freese up to the 2-hole and dropping Beltran to fourth or fifth would better break up the lineup, and it would at least give Johnson something to think about when deploying his relievers.
Key matchup: Lance Lynn vs. Ryan Zimmerman
In the regular season, few pitchers were tougher against right-handed hitters than Lynn. Among starting pitchers, no one was -- Lynn's 1.99 FIP was easily tops in the majors among starters. James Shields was second best at 2.65. Lynn wasn't nearly as good against lefties, as his 5.30 FIP can attest. But in the postseason, Lynn will be deployed in relief and, just like last year, could do significant damage.
[+] Enlarge
Steve Mitchell/US Presswire
Lynn feasts on righties, and could be asked to target Zimmerman specifically.On the other side of the coin, we have Zimmerman, who has bashed with authority since receiving a cortisone shot at the end of June. The Nats' 3-hole hitter generally is surrounded by two lefties, with Bryce Harper hitting in front of him and Adam LaRoche behind him. It's not generally a great idea to burn a pitcher who could throw multiple innings on one hitter, but if you're going to make an exception for such a move in a high leverage situation, this is it.
Cardinals X factor: Matt Holliday
Although he has one of the richest contracts in the game, and has been one of its best hitters for a while now, Holliday continually gets lost in the shuffle. Normally, Holliday is very consistent from month to month -- for his career, he is at least 20 percent better than the average hitter in each month of the season. But this year, he faded in August and September, thanks in part to a lower back injury. It's true Holliday isn't the only masher in the lineup. Yadier Molina, Allen Craig and David Freese all joined Holliday as one of the game's top 30 hitters this season (according to wRC+), but Holliday is not only the team's catalyst in the 3-hole but also is the team's best hitter against left-handed pitching, and the Nats might start three lefties if the series goes five games.
Nationals X factor: Michael Morse
Morse had almost an inverse of the season Holliday did. After a banner 2011 campaign, Morse didn't even get on the field until June, and once he did, he didn't hit. He looked as if he was turning the corner in July, but an August slump derailed that progress. In September, though, Morse once again started hitting. His monthly ISO climbed over .200 for the first and only time this season. His walk rate declined for the second straight year, but if Morse keeps up his hot hitting from September, the Nats' lineup should be imposing.
Cardinals key reliever: Edward Mujica
With Marc Rzepczynski turning in a poor second season in St. Louis, Mujica is the best bullpen arm the Cardinals have against left-handed hitters. Fernando Salas and Mitchell Boggs walk lefties far too often to be trusted options, and Jason Motte likely will be kept on ice for save situations. Mujica has generally been effective against lefties, holding them to a .244/.269/.400 line overall this season and an even better .195/.195/.244 in his brief time in St. Louis. Most encouraging is that his K/BB against lefties is 7.00 this year and 5.53 over the past three seasons, which stands in sharp contrast to the numbers for Salas and Boggs.
Nationals key reliever: Tyler Clippard
Clippard has been the workhorse in the Nats' bullpen for the past three years, and after the Brad Lidge-Henry Rodriguez closer experiment didn't work out, Washington turned to him to pick up saves. With Drew Storen taking the closer role back, though, Washington manager Davey Johnson is free to deploy Clippard wherever he chooses, which is important because Clippard typically has thrived in high-leverage situations. But the second half, in which he allowed a .788 OPS to opposing batters, was not as kind to Clippard as was the first half, when he held them to a more impressive .438 OPS. Washington needs him to rediscover his mojo in a hurry.
[+] Enlarge
Brad Mills/US Presswire
Which version of Michael Morse will we see in October?Cardinals key bench player: Matt Carpenter
It's tempting to list Lance Berkman here, but with him not at full strength, Carpenter is likely to be most trusted to be the Cardinals' weapon off the bench. Other than small samples from Pete Kozma (who is now in the starting lineup) and Berkman, Carpenter has been the only effective weapon off the St. Louis bench this year, as he hit .294/.365/.463 in a part-time role. And, although he bats left-handed, Carpenter hit 12 percent better than league average against left-handed pitchers, making him a viable candidate to pinch hit no matter who is on the mound. That is good news for the Cardinals, as they have precious little thump on the bench outside of him unless Berkman has a few more tricks up his ample sleeves.
Nationals key bench player: Roger Bernadina
Bernadina has everything you want in a bench player. With 53 stolen bases against just 11 times caught stealing in his career, he is the efficient base stealer you want late in the game. A patient hitter, Bernadina chased fewer pitches out of the zone this season; as a result, his walk rate rose to a robust 10.7 percent, so he's likely to give a good at-bat. And finally, he plays good defense. Fourteen times in September, Morse was removed for defense in the seventh inning or later, and Bernadina was usually the one who entered for him. Expect to see more of that in the postseason.
Key stat: St. Louis' 3.78 pitches per plate appearance
The Cardinals have had a great offense all season, but although their walk rate tied for eighth best in the game this season, they didn't have to work overly hard to get it -- St. Louis' 3.78 pitches seen per plate appearance was just 20th best in the game.
Residing in the soft National League Central, the Cards' offense wasn't challenged as much as it will be in the postseason, and, although Washington has a great pitching staff, St. Louis has an opportunity to make those pitchers work. Washington pitchers tossed 3.84 pitches per plate appearance, a mark that ranked 22nd in baseball. That is a touch deceiving, as one of the least efficient pitchers for Washington was Stephen Strasburg, and he won't throw in the postseason. But in Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Sean Burnett, Mike Gonzalez and Tyler Clippard, the Nats still have five pitchers who tossed more pitches per PA than the league average. The Cards need to take advantage, particularly against Gonzalez and Zimmermann.
Modest proposal: Move Carlos Beltran back in the batting order
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny devised a pretty healthy batting order this season. The best six hitters hit in the first six spots in the order, and, although that sounds elementary, it doesn't happen as frequently as it should. But in terms of handedness, the batting order is as follows -- lefty, switch hitter, righty, righty, righty, righty. In the postseason, matchups become everything, and Johnson is going to be able to match up fairly easily against that batting order. This is exacerbated by the fact that the only lefty in the order, Jon Jay, is a fixture at leadoff. Jay was pinch hit for only twice this season, and one of those times Holliday was the one who entered for him. Moving Freese up to the 2-hole and dropping Beltran to fourth or fifth would better break up the lineup, and it would at least give Johnson something to think about when deploying his relievers.
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OK, I didn't want to bring this up in the O's/Yankees thread, but there is something I gotta get off my chest involving ex-O's fans who now are Nats fans.
I find it EXTREMELY hypocritical that fans would jump ship to the Nats citing Peter Angelos as a reason why they left. The hypocritical part is that these same "fans" still cheer on the ********/Snyder every Sunday, and it's debatable as to which franchise has been more dysfunctional over the years (my vote goes to the Skins).
Nats can keep those fans b/c they don't know **** about loyalty. I'm really indifferent to the Nats - but my main issue is with SOME of their fans. I got no problems if you had no interest in baseball until they came to DC and started following. Actually, I have no problem if you just started following them this year. I have no problem if you were an Expos fan and stayed with the team through their transition. My problem strictly lies in folks who had the Cal Ripken milk poster, cheered for guys like Mike Deveraux, Chris Hoiles, Moose Milligan, etc. but turned your back on the team due to some ******** reason.
Part of being a fan is staying loyal through thick and thin. I can't tell you how happy I am about this run the O's are on. It's been a very long time coming, but seeing the success of the team, fans back in stands at OPACY, and the general O's "magic" has made all the trials and tribulations worth it.
All you turncoat Nats fans out there wouldn't know anything about it.
/rant
I find it EXTREMELY hypocritical that fans would jump ship to the Nats citing Peter Angelos as a reason why they left. The hypocritical part is that these same "fans" still cheer on the ********/Snyder every Sunday, and it's debatable as to which franchise has been more dysfunctional over the years (my vote goes to the Skins).
Nats can keep those fans b/c they don't know **** about loyalty. I'm really indifferent to the Nats - but my main issue is with SOME of their fans. I got no problems if you had no interest in baseball until they came to DC and started following. Actually, I have no problem if you just started following them this year. I have no problem if you were an Expos fan and stayed with the team through their transition. My problem strictly lies in folks who had the Cal Ripken milk poster, cheered for guys like Mike Deveraux, Chris Hoiles, Moose Milligan, etc. but turned your back on the team due to some ******** reason.
Part of being a fan is staying loyal through thick and thin. I can't tell you how happy I am about this run the O's are on. It's been a very long time coming, but seeing the success of the team, fans back in stands at OPACY, and the general O's "magic" has made all the trials and tribulations worth it.
All you turncoat Nats fans out there wouldn't know anything about it.
/rant
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^ Repped JJs07...
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Yea, I was VERY tempted to call out sick today
Yeah man this is a perfect day to lounge and watch some baseball in this cool fall weather.
JJs07
I hear you man on that, but I view it as just adding another local team.....even though here in VA, the Nats have been adopted as the new "HOME" team and the O's have gotten the step-child treatment these last 7 years or so. The Orioles used to be the premier team on CSN and now they are usually relegated to MASN2.
The O's will always be my preferred team and if the O's play the Nats in the World Series........without hesitation I am going for Baltimore to beat the breaks off them. It is good to see another professional area team do well though and I will support the Nationals as long as they are in DC.
I went to a game last week while at work because someone passed along free tickets.
Nats "fans" now outweigh O's fans 75% to 25% around here and you can't even find stores that carry Baltimore gear in VA like that anymore. It was sort of an unspoken wave that occurred that I don't think the media ever really addressed (probably because they are behind it as well).
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I'm not going to sit here an pretend like I don't know why people are pulling for the Nats. Like I said before...my problem solely lies w/ the turncoat O's fans who now pull for them. There is NO excuse, IMO to turn in a fan card out of spite or because another team seems to be on the upswing or look to have a stronger overall organization. Part of being a fan is sticking with your squad when they suck. No matter how long it takes.
It's a funny situation in the DC area because the Orioles were DC's "team" for the better part of 30 years. There's a large group of people out there who jumped ship when the Nats came to town and totally turned their backs on Baltimore.
Nats are the only DC team that I'm indifferent to.
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EXACTLY!!!
Totally forgot about that. Nets/Knicks situation totally parallels what's happening in the DC area.
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Daytime post season baseball is clutch.
I got these teams today
Nats
Yanks
Tigers
Reds
I got these teams today
Nats
Yanks
Tigers
Reds
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I'm indifferent towards the Ravens, even though plenty of folks jumped ship to the Black and Purple and their SB victory with the Skins spending the majority of the last 20 years as the NFC East door mat.
How do you feel about the Ravens JJs07?
I agree though, turning your back on a team you supported and a local team like that is inexcusable. You can't give your first love the cold shoulder like that.
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I'll take:
Nats
Oakland
O's
Reds
Nats
Oakland
O's
Reds
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Love Ed Reed, but feel the same way about the Ravens as I do the Nats.
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Wale and Bryce Harper segment on "First Take" this morning seemed a bit forced.
I have STL winning in five regardless of today's outcome. Guessing they take G3 and G5.
I've also got the Yanks in five. They could lose tonight and still win G4 and G5. Girardi's lineup selection, order in particular, will be under heavy scrutiny.
I have STL winning in five regardless of today's outcome. Guessing they take G3 and G5.
I've also got the Yanks in five. They could lose tonight and still win G4 and G5. Girardi's lineup selection, order in particular, will be under heavy scrutiny.
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