GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
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Barry Bonds is going to pay the college bills for Bryan Stow’s children. Very classy move Barry.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- 6,589
- 2,136
Barry Bonds is going to pay the college bills for Bryan Stow’s children. Very classy move Barry.
- 28,100
- 9,232
Barry Lamar
And Zack Greinke with a homerun!!! Love it.
And Zack Greinke with a homerun!!! Love it.
- 28,100
- 9,232
Barry Lamar
And Zack Greinke with a homerun!!! Love it.
And Zack Greinke with a homerun!!! Love it.
bkmac
Banned
- 11,540
- 13
I trade Soriano in the Team Yankees Fantasy League and he puts in works the last few days since
.
bkmac
Banned
- 11,540
- 13
I trade Soriano in the Team Yankees Fantasy League and he puts in works the last few days since
.
- 6,994
- 85
SMH garza on the dl brings my total dl players on the fantasy league to 5
- 6,994
- 85
SMH garza on the dl brings my total dl players on the fantasy league to 5
- 4,857
- 14
this phils game wont end
- 4,857
- 14
this phils game wont end
elpablo21
Supporter
- 106,136
- 194,939
I turned to check out baseball tonight and thought the game was a replay
elpablo21
Supporter
- 106,136
- 194,939
I turned to check out baseball tonight and thought the game was a replay
Catchers blocking the plate.
Bryce Harper's fast track to the bigs.
Trading Heath Bell.
Replacing Reyes.
Spoiler [+]
The major injury concern that the Giants had with catcher Buster Posey, as manager Bruce Bochy explained on the phone Wednesday afternoon, was because of foul tips. Posey had taken a couple of foul balls off his face mask, and Bochy said the Giants had an internal conversation about whether Posey should wear a different kind of mask.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Marcio Jose SanchezIf it involved even a simple valuation -- one run versus major injury risk -- this play doesn't happen.
Bochy had asked Posey if his young catcher had tried the old-fashioned catcher's mask, with its thick padding over the chin and jawline and forehead. Posey had responded that he had always worn the hockey-goalie style mask, which sits more flush against the face of a catcher, and he couldn't imagine leaving some part of his face exposed. It was a conversation that Posey wanted to have another day; his manager intended to bring it up again.
But that is the least of the Giants' worries, in the aftermath of the devastating leg injury that Posey suffered while blocking home plate in the 12th inning Thursday night. As soon as the Marlins' Scott Cousins hit him, with Posey's left ankle twisting grotesquely underneath him, Posey rolled onto his stomach and began slapping the ground in agony; Cousins immediately checked on Posey.
He was helped off the field, his left leg dangling, and the Giants will have a better idea later today of how long Posey will be out. But anything seems possible.
In the still photographs of the play, Posey's foot was pointing in the wrong direction, writes Andrew Baggarly. Posey is the last guy that the Giants want to lose, Miguel Tejada told Henry Schulman.
How different the Giants' world would seem today if San Francisco hadn't rallied for four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game.
What can the Giants do if Posey is out for an extended period? Well, not much, as the Boston Red Sox and many other teams can tell them, from their own searches for catchers in the past year. If Posey's injury is a season-ender, San Francisco could call Bengie Molina -- but when other teams have called Molina and asked him about spending weeks in the minors to prepare, they haven't been greeted with overwhelming enthusiasm; his preference apparently is to be quickly promoted into the big leagues.
• What follows is not meant to be a criticism of Posey or Scott Cousins: In the current world of assessing value, the act of blocking home plate is simply not worth the potential cost. Not even close.
There is a reason why outfielders don't dive headfirst into walls and hitters don't stick their heads over the plate with the bases loaded; players don't willfully put themselves at risk of significant injury for one run, for one play.
And yet it is expected of catchers to plant themselves in front of home plate -- often off-balance, often while blind to the precise whereabouts of an oncoming baserunner, who is barreling toward him at full speed, with full intent of hitting him the way a Yankee Stadium security man hits a drunk who has run on the field. The catcher is completely vulnerable.
[h3][/h3]
There is a reason why outfielders don't dive headfirst into walls and hitters don't stick their heads over the plate with the bases loaded; players don't willfully put themselves at risk of significant injury for one run, for one play.
Buck Martinez had his leg shattered blocking home plate. Many catchers have been knocked out cold. Carlos Santana stuck his leg out last year, missed two months -- and was thought to be lucky, considering the nature of the injury.
Posey is one of the top young players in the game, having won the Rookie of the Year and a championship before serving a full season in the majors; he is regarded as much of a cornerstone of the Giants' organization, going forward, as Adrian Gonzalez is for the Red Sox or Felix Hernandez is for the Mariners. The Giants have millions invested in Posey already, because of the tens of millions of dollars they expect he will earn for them, because his production will prompt fans to watch them.
And depending on the severity of his injury, he could be out for a few weeks or a few months, or longer; depending on the severity of his injury, Posey may have just passed through a career crossroads, as Ray Fosse did when he blocked the plate in the 1970 All-Star Game.
For what?
To possibly save one run in an extra-inning game in May?
It's not worth it. It's not even close.
It's time that catchers should be taught differently. And it may be time for Major League Baseball and the Players Association to talk about taking this play -- the catcher blocking home plate -- out of the sport.
Under baseball rules, a pitcher cannot intentionally hit another player with a pitch; doing that leads to warnings, ejections, fines and suspensions. There are rules in place, actually, against obstruction; if a third baseman moving into position for a relay from the outfield merely crosses in front of a runner and the umpire judges that the third baseman has impeded the runner, even without contact, the ump has the power to advance the runner.
But for some reason, a catcher is expected to plant himself in front of home plate, blocking access to the runner -- something which, by the way, is against the rules -- and the runner is expected to blast his way to home plate, in whatever manner possible. Both players are put at much greater risk than in any other play in the sport; it's like having a pile-driving contest in the middle of a tennis match.
It's not worth it. It's not even close.
One of the great aspects of the Moneyball era is that standard operating procedures have been challenged, questioned, dissected. The fact that something is done simply because that's the way it's always been done is not good enough. Changes are made.
And a change should be made with this play. Catchers should tag out runners the same way that third basemen and second basemen and shortstops have for decades.
To expect catchers to block the plate is just not worth it. It's not even close.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Before the Posey injury, it had been a fun night of baseball, with the Reds and Phillies playing 19 innings and turning Wilson Valdez into a trivia answer: He is the first position player to start a game in the field and then eventually become the winning pitcher since Babe Ruth in 1921, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Some more nuggets, from ESPN Stats & Information: The Reds-Phillies matchup on Wednesday night was the longest, by time and inning, of the season. The game was the longest game in Philadelphia in terms of innings since July 7, 1993, when the Phillies beat the Dodgers in 20 innings. It's the longest MLB game in terms of innings since the Mets and Cardinals played 20 innings last year on April 17. It is also tied for the longest Reds-Phillies game ever (19 innings on Sept. 15, 1950). In that game, both teams had two pitchers pitch at least seven innings, which was the longest any pitcher went in Wednesday's contest (Halladay started and went seven). The Reds-Phillies game by the numbers:
[h4]Marathon Games[/h4]
Comparing two extremely long Wednesday night games:
[th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]WCU vs Elon[/th][th=""]Reds vs Phillies[/th]
Pitches: 600
Players used: 41
Left on base: 33
Plate appearances: 155
Strikeouts: 27
Putouts by 1B: 38
Bullpen IP: 24 2/3
Combined RISP: 4-for-28
Game time: 6:11.10
College baseball also featured a marathon game on Wednesday between Western Carolina and Elon. A comparison of the games is at right.
• Frank McCourt is telling Major League Baseball he will make payroll in the days ahead.
• Rubby De La Rosa is surprised to have been called up by the Dodgers.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. Zack Greinke had a really good day, as Tom Haudricourt writes. How he won, from ESPN Stats & Information:
A) Greinke had a dominant slider that he saved for when he had two strikes in the count. He threw 12 of his 15 sliders with two strikes, striking out six Nationals hitters with the pitch. All 12 of Greinke's sliders with two strikes were out of the strike zone, and the Nationals swung eight times against them. Washington hitters missed on six of those eight swings.
B) His slider was effective because of the movement he had with the pitch. His slider had by far his most downward movement this year, moving almost an inch further down than in any prior start. It highlights an interesting change with Greinke's slider from last year to this, as he's sacrificing velocity for movement. His average slider has been about 2 mph slower than last year, but it's breaking almost 2 inches further down and over 2 inches more to Greinke's glove side.
2. Trevor Cahill had a bout of wildness.
3. After losing Wednesday, Jo-Jo Reyes has 28 consecutive winless starts dating back to June 13, 2008. Over that time period, 67 pitchers have won 28 or more games. The most wins since Reyes' last win:
CC Sabathia: 58
Roy Halladay: 56
Jon Lester: 52
Justin Verlander: 49
Bronson Arroyo: 46
Most consecutive winless starts in MLB history:
Jo-Jo Reyes: 28 (2008-11)
Matt Keough: 28 (1978-79)
Cliff Curtis: 28 (1910-11)
• Reyes is scheduled to make his next start on Memorial Day at home against the Indians.
4. With Wednesday's game, Mariano Rivera has now appeared in 1,000 games in his career. He is the 15th pitcher all-time to appear in 1,000 games and the first to reach that total with one team. Per Elias, the most games pitched for one team in MLB history starts with Rivera at 1,000 for the Yankees, followed by Trevor Hoffman at 902 for the Padres, Walter Johnson with 802 for the Senators and Roy Face with 802 for the Pirates. Among active pitchers, the pitcher whose team has the best winning percentage when he pitches (minimum 500 appearances) is Mariano Rivera's .850. Joe Nathan's teams rank second (.793). The all-time leader among those retired is Billy Wagner (.780).
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Marcio Jose SanchezIf it involved even a simple valuation -- one run versus major injury risk -- this play doesn't happen.
Bochy had asked Posey if his young catcher had tried the old-fashioned catcher's mask, with its thick padding over the chin and jawline and forehead. Posey had responded that he had always worn the hockey-goalie style mask, which sits more flush against the face of a catcher, and he couldn't imagine leaving some part of his face exposed. It was a conversation that Posey wanted to have another day; his manager intended to bring it up again.
But that is the least of the Giants' worries, in the aftermath of the devastating leg injury that Posey suffered while blocking home plate in the 12th inning Thursday night. As soon as the Marlins' Scott Cousins hit him, with Posey's left ankle twisting grotesquely underneath him, Posey rolled onto his stomach and began slapping the ground in agony; Cousins immediately checked on Posey.
He was helped off the field, his left leg dangling, and the Giants will have a better idea later today of how long Posey will be out. But anything seems possible.
In the still photographs of the play, Posey's foot was pointing in the wrong direction, writes Andrew Baggarly. Posey is the last guy that the Giants want to lose, Miguel Tejada told Henry Schulman.
How different the Giants' world would seem today if San Francisco hadn't rallied for four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game.
What can the Giants do if Posey is out for an extended period? Well, not much, as the Boston Red Sox and many other teams can tell them, from their own searches for catchers in the past year. If Posey's injury is a season-ender, San Francisco could call Bengie Molina -- but when other teams have called Molina and asked him about spending weeks in the minors to prepare, they haven't been greeted with overwhelming enthusiasm; his preference apparently is to be quickly promoted into the big leagues.
• What follows is not meant to be a criticism of Posey or Scott Cousins: In the current world of assessing value, the act of blocking home plate is simply not worth the potential cost. Not even close.
There is a reason why outfielders don't dive headfirst into walls and hitters don't stick their heads over the plate with the bases loaded; players don't willfully put themselves at risk of significant injury for one run, for one play.
And yet it is expected of catchers to plant themselves in front of home plate -- often off-balance, often while blind to the precise whereabouts of an oncoming baserunner, who is barreling toward him at full speed, with full intent of hitting him the way a Yankee Stadium security man hits a drunk who has run on the field. The catcher is completely vulnerable.
[h3][/h3]
There is a reason why outfielders don't dive headfirst into walls and hitters don't stick their heads over the plate with the bases loaded; players don't willfully put themselves at risk of significant injury for one run, for one play.
Buck Martinez had his leg shattered blocking home plate. Many catchers have been knocked out cold. Carlos Santana stuck his leg out last year, missed two months -- and was thought to be lucky, considering the nature of the injury.
Posey is one of the top young players in the game, having won the Rookie of the Year and a championship before serving a full season in the majors; he is regarded as much of a cornerstone of the Giants' organization, going forward, as Adrian Gonzalez is for the Red Sox or Felix Hernandez is for the Mariners. The Giants have millions invested in Posey already, because of the tens of millions of dollars they expect he will earn for them, because his production will prompt fans to watch them.
And depending on the severity of his injury, he could be out for a few weeks or a few months, or longer; depending on the severity of his injury, Posey may have just passed through a career crossroads, as Ray Fosse did when he blocked the plate in the 1970 All-Star Game.
For what?
To possibly save one run in an extra-inning game in May?
It's not worth it. It's not even close.
It's time that catchers should be taught differently. And it may be time for Major League Baseball and the Players Association to talk about taking this play -- the catcher blocking home plate -- out of the sport.
Under baseball rules, a pitcher cannot intentionally hit another player with a pitch; doing that leads to warnings, ejections, fines and suspensions. There are rules in place, actually, against obstruction; if a third baseman moving into position for a relay from the outfield merely crosses in front of a runner and the umpire judges that the third baseman has impeded the runner, even without contact, the ump has the power to advance the runner.
But for some reason, a catcher is expected to plant himself in front of home plate, blocking access to the runner -- something which, by the way, is against the rules -- and the runner is expected to blast his way to home plate, in whatever manner possible. Both players are put at much greater risk than in any other play in the sport; it's like having a pile-driving contest in the middle of a tennis match.
It's not worth it. It's not even close.
One of the great aspects of the Moneyball era is that standard operating procedures have been challenged, questioned, dissected. The fact that something is done simply because that's the way it's always been done is not good enough. Changes are made.
And a change should be made with this play. Catchers should tag out runners the same way that third basemen and second basemen and shortstops have for decades.
To expect catchers to block the plate is just not worth it. It's not even close.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Before the Posey injury, it had been a fun night of baseball, with the Reds and Phillies playing 19 innings and turning Wilson Valdez into a trivia answer: He is the first position player to start a game in the field and then eventually become the winning pitcher since Babe Ruth in 1921, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Some more nuggets, from ESPN Stats & Information: The Reds-Phillies matchup on Wednesday night was the longest, by time and inning, of the season. The game was the longest game in Philadelphia in terms of innings since July 7, 1993, when the Phillies beat the Dodgers in 20 innings. It's the longest MLB game in terms of innings since the Mets and Cardinals played 20 innings last year on April 17. It is also tied for the longest Reds-Phillies game ever (19 innings on Sept. 15, 1950). In that game, both teams had two pitchers pitch at least seven innings, which was the longest any pitcher went in Wednesday's contest (Halladay started and went seven). The Reds-Phillies game by the numbers:
[h4]Marathon Games[/h4]
Comparing two extremely long Wednesday night games:
| Innings | 20 | 19 |
| Time of Game | 6:33 | 6:11 |
| Attendance | 937 | 45,706 |
| Game Ended | 11:33 PM ET | 1:19 AM ET |
| Pitchers used | 13 | 16 |
| Pitches thrown | 639 | 600 |
| Final score | WCU, 10-7 | Phillies, 5-4 |
Pitches: 600
Players used: 41
Left on base: 33
Plate appearances: 155
Strikeouts: 27
Putouts by 1B: 38
Bullpen IP: 24 2/3
Combined RISP: 4-for-28
Game time: 6:11.10
College baseball also featured a marathon game on Wednesday between Western Carolina and Elon. A comparison of the games is at right.
• Frank McCourt is telling Major League Baseball he will make payroll in the days ahead.
• Rubby De La Rosa is surprised to have been called up by the Dodgers.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. Zack Greinke had a really good day, as Tom Haudricourt writes. How he won, from ESPN Stats & Information:
A) Greinke had a dominant slider that he saved for when he had two strikes in the count. He threw 12 of his 15 sliders with two strikes, striking out six Nationals hitters with the pitch. All 12 of Greinke's sliders with two strikes were out of the strike zone, and the Nationals swung eight times against them. Washington hitters missed on six of those eight swings.
B) His slider was effective because of the movement he had with the pitch. His slider had by far his most downward movement this year, moving almost an inch further down than in any prior start. It highlights an interesting change with Greinke's slider from last year to this, as he's sacrificing velocity for movement. His average slider has been about 2 mph slower than last year, but it's breaking almost 2 inches further down and over 2 inches more to Greinke's glove side.
2. Trevor Cahill had a bout of wildness.
3. After losing Wednesday, Jo-Jo Reyes has 28 consecutive winless starts dating back to June 13, 2008. Over that time period, 67 pitchers have won 28 or more games. The most wins since Reyes' last win:
CC Sabathia: 58
Roy Halladay: 56
Jon Lester: 52
Justin Verlander: 49
Bronson Arroyo: 46
Most consecutive winless starts in MLB history:
Jo-Jo Reyes: 28 (2008-11)
Matt Keough: 28 (1978-79)
Cliff Curtis: 28 (1910-11)
• Reyes is scheduled to make his next start on Memorial Day at home against the Indians.
4. With Wednesday's game, Mariano Rivera has now appeared in 1,000 games in his career. He is the 15th pitcher all-time to appear in 1,000 games and the first to reach that total with one team. Per Elias, the most games pitched for one team in MLB history starts with Rivera at 1,000 for the Yankees, followed by Trevor Hoffman at 902 for the Padres, Walter Johnson with 802 for the Senators and Roy Face with 802 for the Pirates. Among active pitchers, the pitcher whose team has the best winning percentage when he pitches (minimum 500 appearances) is Mariano Rivera's .850. Joe Nathan's teams rank second (.793). The all-time leader among those retired is Billy Wagner (.780).
Bryce Harper's fast track to the bigs.
Spoiler [+]
Arguably, the most impressive part about Bryce Harper's career up to this point has been his ability to consistently exceed expectations despite being among the most hyped prospects in the history of the game.
Tales of his achievements across the high school diamonds of Las Vegas were already the stuff of legend when he cut his prep career short by two years in order to play a season of junior college baseball in preparation for the 2010 draft. Entering the spring as the overwhelming favorite to be the top pick, scouts would have been impressed if Harper merely held his own in a good conference that uses wooden bats. Instead, he rewrote the College Of Southern Nevada record book, hitting .443 and slugging 31 home runs to eclipse the school record by a mere 19.
[h4]Curtain Call[/h4]
Everywhere Bryce Harper goes, attention follows. Jerry Crasnick gets inside the action with Harper and the Hagerstown Suns.
Just 17 years old when signed to a record deal by the Washington Nationals, Harper began his professional career in the Arizona Fall League, playing against and with upper-level prospects, many of whom have already reached the big leagues. After slugging .639 in limited play, one scout said, "He's a child and he not only belonged on the field with those guys, he stood out."
His official career got off to a slow start in April, but a pair of contact lenses got him back on track, and heading into Thursday night's action he was batting a whopping .340/.425/.615 for Low-A Hagerstown in the South Atlantic League. He's been intentionally walked five times in his past 23 games. That's nearly unheard of at this level, as last year's season leader had six.
There is no statistical or scouting evidence to say Harper is not good, or even not very good. But just how good can he be? To find out, let's go through the traditional five tools and walk through the ranges a number of scouts projected for him as a big leaguer on the 20-80 scale (with 50 being major league average) based on early season looks.
[h5]Hitting: 50-65[/h5]
There is a somewhat wide range on Harper's ultimate ability, with this spectrum representing a .270-.300 hitter. He takes an enormous, violent swing, but scouts are consistently surprised at how much contact he makes with it. While he's currently striking out once every 4.4 at-bats, that's actually a promising number considering his age and what was once a exaggerated front step that included a strange knee twist has been muted considerably. He's not going to win batting titles, but he's certainly not going to be a low-average, one-dimensional slugger either.
[h5]Power: 80[/h5]
"He's basically Superman, " -- NL Scout.
"It's freakish," -- AL Scout
The 20-80 scale is on a bell curve, so 80s are rare, but even more difficult is to find such a grade that scouts are universal on. There are plenty of big and strong teenagers out there, but finding one with the type of advanced, right-now ability to drive balls to all fields while adding the necessary loft and backspin forces scouts to dig deep for comparisons.
[h4]Bryce Harper[/h4][h5]#34 RF
Hagerstown Suns[/h5]
2011 STATS
"I don't think we've seen a high school player like this since Alex Rodriguez," said one talent evaluator, referring to the Yankees third baseman who was the No. 1 overall pick when Harper was not yet 8 months old. Before he was mashing 465-foot home runs in the big leagues, Mike Stanton was seen as the prospect most likely to hit 50 home runs in a single big league season, and now Harper wears that crown.
[h5]Glove: 50-60[/h5]
Harper was a catcher as an amateur, but moved immediately to the outfield after signing. It was for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, he just wasn't a good receiver, and while his bat could be ready for the big leagues before Harper's 20th birthday, developing him into a big league defender behind the plate could take an extra two or three seasons. In addition, having him catch is an injury risk and waste of his current athleticism, while also forcing him to the bench for 20-plus games a season for rest.
He's taken well to the outfield, even playing center field on occasion, and while there are some improvements needed in his reads and routes, scouts believe he'll end up a good right fielder in the end. "What impressed me so much is that he's clearly working hard to improve out there, and you don't always see that in kids that are special hitters," one scout said.
[h5]Arm: 70-80[/h5]
One of the reasons Harper played catcher was that his arm was such a weapon. He pitched in the low-90s as an amateur, and he's already racked up four outfield assists in the young season. With strength, carry and accuracy, big league base runners will be hesitant when looking for the extra base on balls hit his way.
[h5]Speed: 30-50[/h5]
While speed is the least important part of Harper's game, a discussion of how he projects down the road delves deeper into the projected final product. He's plenty fast now, showing times from home to first that are consistently a tick better than average, and he's stolen seven bases in 10 attempts so far down on the farm. "I think that when he comes up, he could steal 15-20 bases per year," one scout said. The real debate concerns what he will look like physically by the time he is in his late 20s.
Already 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Harper is a massive human being for an 18 year old and not done filling out, leaving some scouts to fear that by the time he has matured, he'll be a 250-pound beast more in the mold of a massive first baseman as opposed to a multi-tooled outfielder. Such growth would certainly limit him to an outfield corner, and could affect his offensive numbers in other ways, as reduced speed means fewer singles, doubles and triples. "I'm still not sure what he's going to be in the end, other than a really good hitter," another scout said. "He's could be this superstar who could beat you in a bunch of ways, but if he keeps growing, he could end up being a big, slow first baseman who reminds one physically of Ryan Howard."
[h5]Makeup:[/h5]
There is no score for makeup, but it still needs to be discussed. While it never came close to outweighing his talent, Harper's arrogant, confrontational style of play turned off many during his high school and college years, and he's yet to really temper it as a pro, which has already led to a couple of near brawls due to a propensity to stare down opposing pitchers or gesticulate toward dugouts. "It seems to happen every night, and it might not change until he gets to the big leagues where teammates won't put up with those antics," a NL team executive said. "Then again, maybe he'll hit four home runs in his first week and everyone will shut up."
[h5]The Verdict: [/h5]
While Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has already clearly expressed that Harper will spend all of the 2011 season in the minors, reaching the big leagues as a teenager is still a distinct possibility with a call up by the end of the 2012 season.
In the past quarter century, only 12 position players have reached the majors before their 20th birthday, and those 12 have combined for 51 All-Star game appearances, four MVP awards and another 24 top-10 finishes in the voting. It takes a special talent just to get there so quickly, and Harper is going to likely do just that. Don't bet against him continuing to exceed the expectations that really couldn't get any higher.
Tales of his achievements across the high school diamonds of Las Vegas were already the stuff of legend when he cut his prep career short by two years in order to play a season of junior college baseball in preparation for the 2010 draft. Entering the spring as the overwhelming favorite to be the top pick, scouts would have been impressed if Harper merely held his own in a good conference that uses wooden bats. Instead, he rewrote the College Of Southern Nevada record book, hitting .443 and slugging 31 home runs to eclipse the school record by a mere 19.
[h4]Curtain Call[/h4]
Everywhere Bryce Harper goes, attention follows. Jerry Crasnick gets inside the action with Harper and the Hagerstown Suns.
Just 17 years old when signed to a record deal by the Washington Nationals, Harper began his professional career in the Arizona Fall League, playing against and with upper-level prospects, many of whom have already reached the big leagues. After slugging .639 in limited play, one scout said, "He's a child and he not only belonged on the field with those guys, he stood out."
His official career got off to a slow start in April, but a pair of contact lenses got him back on track, and heading into Thursday night's action he was batting a whopping .340/.425/.615 for Low-A Hagerstown in the South Atlantic League. He's been intentionally walked five times in his past 23 games. That's nearly unheard of at this level, as last year's season leader had six.
There is no statistical or scouting evidence to say Harper is not good, or even not very good. But just how good can he be? To find out, let's go through the traditional five tools and walk through the ranges a number of scouts projected for him as a big leaguer on the 20-80 scale (with 50 being major league average) based on early season looks.
[h5]Hitting: 50-65[/h5]
There is a somewhat wide range on Harper's ultimate ability, with this spectrum representing a .270-.300 hitter. He takes an enormous, violent swing, but scouts are consistently surprised at how much contact he makes with it. While he's currently striking out once every 4.4 at-bats, that's actually a promising number considering his age and what was once a exaggerated front step that included a strange knee twist has been muted considerably. He's not going to win batting titles, but he's certainly not going to be a low-average, one-dimensional slugger either.
[h5]Power: 80[/h5]
"He's basically Superman, " -- NL Scout.
"It's freakish," -- AL Scout
The 20-80 scale is on a bell curve, so 80s are rare, but even more difficult is to find such a grade that scouts are universal on. There are plenty of big and strong teenagers out there, but finding one with the type of advanced, right-now ability to drive balls to all fields while adding the necessary loft and backspin forces scouts to dig deep for comparisons.
[h4]Bryce Harper[/h4][h5]#34 RFHagerstown Suns[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM43
- HR10
- RBI34
- R31
- OBP.425
- AVG.340
"I don't think we've seen a high school player like this since Alex Rodriguez," said one talent evaluator, referring to the Yankees third baseman who was the No. 1 overall pick when Harper was not yet 8 months old. Before he was mashing 465-foot home runs in the big leagues, Mike Stanton was seen as the prospect most likely to hit 50 home runs in a single big league season, and now Harper wears that crown.
[h5]Glove: 50-60[/h5]
Harper was a catcher as an amateur, but moved immediately to the outfield after signing. It was for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, he just wasn't a good receiver, and while his bat could be ready for the big leagues before Harper's 20th birthday, developing him into a big league defender behind the plate could take an extra two or three seasons. In addition, having him catch is an injury risk and waste of his current athleticism, while also forcing him to the bench for 20-plus games a season for rest.
He's taken well to the outfield, even playing center field on occasion, and while there are some improvements needed in his reads and routes, scouts believe he'll end up a good right fielder in the end. "What impressed me so much is that he's clearly working hard to improve out there, and you don't always see that in kids that are special hitters," one scout said.
[h5]Arm: 70-80[/h5]
One of the reasons Harper played catcher was that his arm was such a weapon. He pitched in the low-90s as an amateur, and he's already racked up four outfield assists in the young season. With strength, carry and accuracy, big league base runners will be hesitant when looking for the extra base on balls hit his way.
[h5]Speed: 30-50[/h5]
While speed is the least important part of Harper's game, a discussion of how he projects down the road delves deeper into the projected final product. He's plenty fast now, showing times from home to first that are consistently a tick better than average, and he's stolen seven bases in 10 attempts so far down on the farm. "I think that when he comes up, he could steal 15-20 bases per year," one scout said. The real debate concerns what he will look like physically by the time he is in his late 20s.
Already 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Harper is a massive human being for an 18 year old and not done filling out, leaving some scouts to fear that by the time he has matured, he'll be a 250-pound beast more in the mold of a massive first baseman as opposed to a multi-tooled outfielder. Such growth would certainly limit him to an outfield corner, and could affect his offensive numbers in other ways, as reduced speed means fewer singles, doubles and triples. "I'm still not sure what he's going to be in the end, other than a really good hitter," another scout said. "He's could be this superstar who could beat you in a bunch of ways, but if he keeps growing, he could end up being a big, slow first baseman who reminds one physically of Ryan Howard."
[h5]Makeup:[/h5]
There is no score for makeup, but it still needs to be discussed. While it never came close to outweighing his talent, Harper's arrogant, confrontational style of play turned off many during his high school and college years, and he's yet to really temper it as a pro, which has already led to a couple of near brawls due to a propensity to stare down opposing pitchers or gesticulate toward dugouts. "It seems to happen every night, and it might not change until he gets to the big leagues where teammates won't put up with those antics," a NL team executive said. "Then again, maybe he'll hit four home runs in his first week and everyone will shut up."
[h5]The Verdict: [/h5]
While Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has already clearly expressed that Harper will spend all of the 2011 season in the minors, reaching the big leagues as a teenager is still a distinct possibility with a call up by the end of the 2012 season.
In the past quarter century, only 12 position players have reached the majors before their 20th birthday, and those 12 have combined for 51 All-Star game appearances, four MVP awards and another 24 top-10 finishes in the voting. It takes a special talent just to get there so quickly, and Harper is going to likely do just that. Don't bet against him continuing to exceed the expectations that really couldn't get any higher.
Trading Heath Bell.
Spoiler [+]
On May 14, Heath Bell was brought on for the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies to protect a 9-7 lead for the San Diego Padres. It was the first time he had pitched in six days, and he easily dispatched Jonathan Herrera, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to earn the save and help the Padres improve to 16-23. Bell hasn't had a save opportunity since then, and the Padres have lost seven of 10 to fall deeper into the NL West cellar.
Unlike last year, when San Diego surprised the baseball world by contending until the season's final day, this year's Adrian Gonzalez-less version isn't likely to provide such theatrics. And on a team that has no hope of contending for the playoffs, having a high-priced closer like Bell is simply a waste of resources. The 33-year-old will hit free agency this winter, and there has been speculation that the Padres will look to move him before the trade deadline -- CBSSports.com reported yesterday that the Texas Rangers have shown interest. If San Diego is smart, it will move Bell sooner rather than later, because the market for him could disappear.
In theory, there should be no shortage of suitors for a closer with a 2.00 ERA who has struck out more than a man per inning over the course of his career. In practice, the Padres will run into a problem of supply and demand. There aren't that many teams looking to acquire a big-money closer, yet there are plenty of pitchers who fit that description who could be on the market. In addition to Bell, you have Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Marmol and possibly even Joakim Soria, all of whom have two things in common: They make a lot of money and they play for teams that won't be popping corks this fall.
If you examine the contenders, most of them have their closer spot settled. The Milwaukee Brewers probably aren't thrilled with John Axford (4.03 ERA), and the Cardinals might not have fully bought into the Fernando Salas experience just yet, but teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Phillies, Indians, Angels, Reds, Giants and Rockies all have closers performing well or are not the type to go out and acquire an expensive reliever. And while these clubs will all probably explore the relief market at some point before the July 31 trade deadline, the price point of Bell, K-Rod et al might be a little much.
That leaves the Padres, Mets, Cubs and Royals in a tough spot. Even if they want to move their big-money closers, there probably won't be many suitors. The Mets and Padres could be particularly aggressive since their respective closers are free agents, with Rodriguez holding a $17.5 million option that vests if he finishes 55 games; Marmol is due just $3.2 million this year, but almost $17 million over the next two; and Soria is making $4 million in 2011, with club options ranging from $6-8.75 million in each of the next three seasons. (Though his recent struggles will probably make the Royals reluctant to move him because his trade value is probably the lowest it has ever been.)
[h4]Heath Bell[/h4][h5]#21 RP
San Diego Padres[/h5]
2011 STATS
We all know that teams still place a premium on the "proven closer," which means it would not be surprising to see one of these guys move this summer, even if it's to pitch in a setup role. Therefore, the prudent move for San Diego is to deal Bell before these other clubs make their closers available, at which point he becomes much harder to move.
Spending big money on a closer is almost always a bad idea, though, particularly for a bad team. If nothing else, you're better off finding someone else to pay them, even if it's a trade for 50 cents on the dollar; the money saved is more useful than a couple of meaningless saves in September. And if there was ever a season in which to clear up some extra cash -- not to mention whatever you can get in a trade -- it's this one. Not only is this considered one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, it's also the last one under the current collective bargaining agreement. Most of the buzz suggests that MLB will institute an NBA-style slotting system in the next CBA, which means teams won't be able to leverage their financial resources in order to get a kid to sign on the dotted line.
To give a practical example, let's look at Austin Hedges, one of the top high school catchers in this year's draft. He has told teams he's committed to attending UCLA, and even though Keith Law ranks him as the No. 31 prospect in this year's draft , he might drop out of the first couple of rounds because teams don't think they can sign him. However, a club might pop him in the third round and say, "We'll give you top-15 money to sign with us." As is often the case, that's the kind of dough that will make a prospect reconsider college. But in order to make those kinds of offers, you need to have cash available.
If the Padres trade Bell this season, they won't have to pay whatever is left of his $7.5 million salary at that time. That could be more than $4 million depending on when they deal him -- enough money to get very aggressive in the draft. This tactic is a big reason why the Royals now have the best farm system in baseball, and they used it most notably to sign right fielder Wil Myers for $2 million in the third round in 2009 to buy him out of his commitment to South Carolina. San Diego ranked 16th in Law's organizational rankings, and is in desperate need of youngsters with upside.
If the Padres want to have that kind of flexibility in the draft, they need to move Bell. The already-shallow market could evaporate rather quickly if other teams with expensive closers start looking to trade them.
Unlike last year, when San Diego surprised the baseball world by contending until the season's final day, this year's Adrian Gonzalez-less version isn't likely to provide such theatrics. And on a team that has no hope of contending for the playoffs, having a high-priced closer like Bell is simply a waste of resources. The 33-year-old will hit free agency this winter, and there has been speculation that the Padres will look to move him before the trade deadline -- CBSSports.com reported yesterday that the Texas Rangers have shown interest. If San Diego is smart, it will move Bell sooner rather than later, because the market for him could disappear.
In theory, there should be no shortage of suitors for a closer with a 2.00 ERA who has struck out more than a man per inning over the course of his career. In practice, the Padres will run into a problem of supply and demand. There aren't that many teams looking to acquire a big-money closer, yet there are plenty of pitchers who fit that description who could be on the market. In addition to Bell, you have Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Marmol and possibly even Joakim Soria, all of whom have two things in common: They make a lot of money and they play for teams that won't be popping corks this fall.
If you examine the contenders, most of them have their closer spot settled. The Milwaukee Brewers probably aren't thrilled with John Axford (4.03 ERA), and the Cardinals might not have fully bought into the Fernando Salas experience just yet, but teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Phillies, Indians, Angels, Reds, Giants and Rockies all have closers performing well or are not the type to go out and acquire an expensive reliever. And while these clubs will all probably explore the relief market at some point before the July 31 trade deadline, the price point of Bell, K-Rod et al might be a little much.
That leaves the Padres, Mets, Cubs and Royals in a tough spot. Even if they want to move their big-money closers, there probably won't be many suitors. The Mets and Padres could be particularly aggressive since their respective closers are free agents, with Rodriguez holding a $17.5 million option that vests if he finishes 55 games; Marmol is due just $3.2 million this year, but almost $17 million over the next two; and Soria is making $4 million in 2011, with club options ranging from $6-8.75 million in each of the next three seasons. (Though his recent struggles will probably make the Royals reluctant to move him because his trade value is probably the lowest it has ever been.)
[h4]Heath Bell[/h4][h5]#21 RPSan Diego Padres[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM18
- W2
- L1
- BB6
- K12
- ERA2.00
We all know that teams still place a premium on the "proven closer," which means it would not be surprising to see one of these guys move this summer, even if it's to pitch in a setup role. Therefore, the prudent move for San Diego is to deal Bell before these other clubs make their closers available, at which point he becomes much harder to move.
Spending big money on a closer is almost always a bad idea, though, particularly for a bad team. If nothing else, you're better off finding someone else to pay them, even if it's a trade for 50 cents on the dollar; the money saved is more useful than a couple of meaningless saves in September. And if there was ever a season in which to clear up some extra cash -- not to mention whatever you can get in a trade -- it's this one. Not only is this considered one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, it's also the last one under the current collective bargaining agreement. Most of the buzz suggests that MLB will institute an NBA-style slotting system in the next CBA, which means teams won't be able to leverage their financial resources in order to get a kid to sign on the dotted line.
To give a practical example, let's look at Austin Hedges, one of the top high school catchers in this year's draft. He has told teams he's committed to attending UCLA, and even though Keith Law ranks him as the No. 31 prospect in this year's draft , he might drop out of the first couple of rounds because teams don't think they can sign him. However, a club might pop him in the third round and say, "We'll give you top-15 money to sign with us." As is often the case, that's the kind of dough that will make a prospect reconsider college. But in order to make those kinds of offers, you need to have cash available.
If the Padres trade Bell this season, they won't have to pay whatever is left of his $7.5 million salary at that time. That could be more than $4 million depending on when they deal him -- enough money to get very aggressive in the draft. This tactic is a big reason why the Royals now have the best farm system in baseball, and they used it most notably to sign right fielder Wil Myers for $2 million in the third round in 2009 to buy him out of his commitment to South Carolina. San Diego ranked 16th in Law's organizational rankings, and is in desperate need of youngsters with upside.
If the Padres want to have that kind of flexibility in the draft, they need to move Bell. The already-shallow market could evaporate rather quickly if other teams with expensive closers start looking to trade them.
Replacing Reyes.
Spoiler [+]
Eight years ago, the class of major-league catchers was older than it had been at any time in the last 60 years. In 2003, the average major-league backstop was over 30 years old. In the early- to mid-1990s, there had been an influx of strong catchers into the majors, among them Javy Lopez, Jorge Posada, Jason Kendall, Jason Varitek, Charles Johnson, Mike Lieberthal, and Ivan Rodriguez, all of them except for Kendall born between November, 1970 and July, 1972. A few years after the turn of the millennium, those players were now in their early 30s, but the next generation had largely failed to arrive in the interim.
This is not at all unusual; baseball has always gone through cycles in which a position suffers through a dearth of qualified applicants. There was even a moment in the American League of the late 1940s when shortstops outhit the first basemen -- somehow the circuit just couldn't find any solid mashers to stand at the gateway. Currently, the biggest void at any position is shortstop, and that makes the Mets handling of impending free agent Jose Reyes that much trickier because he is one of the game's rarest commodities, a star shortstop in his prime.
To get a sense of how losing Reyes would affect the Mets, we can look back to the catcher shortage of the early 21st century. After the 2002 season the Rangers had to make a decision as to whether to re-sign free agent Ivan Rodriguez after a year in which the then-30-year-old had hit .314/.353/.542 in a season shortened to 108 games by a herniated disc in his back. The Rangers demurred, allowing Rodriguez to go to Florida on a one-year contract. During that one year, and for the year after with Detroit, Rodriguez continued to perform at a high level, helping the 2003 Marlins win the World Series and pushing a moribund Tigers franchise back towards respectability.
Although Rodriguez declined rapidly after that second year, he remained a useful player relative to the class of catchers for most of the five-year contract he signed with the Tigers subsequent to the Marlins championship. Had the Rangers been able to re-sign him to a five-year contract after 2002, they would have been substantially better off than what they got instead -- one year of Einar Diaz and Todd Greene (aggregate: .247/.282/.379), followed by three years of Rod Barajas (.253/.294/.444), and onward through a malaise at the position that lasts to this day.
The Rangers' decision was not an easy one given Rodriguez's age, injury status, and the incredible catching workload he had been under since reaching the majors as a 19-year-old in 1991, but Reyes doesn't carry the same kind of risk. Though Mets owner Fred Wilpon tried to make what seems to be a decision not to retain Reyes in his now-infamous remarks in the most recent New Yorker, he should think twice about his shortstop's value. He would be by far the most attractive available shortstop in a period so devoid of good young players at the position that no matter who the Mets acquire in a potential Reyes trade, their value will be dramatically offset by the inevitable hard decline at the position.
Because the position demands speed, quick reflexes, and agility, shortstop has always been a job for the young -- until now. This year, the average age of shortstops throughout the majors is 28.8, the oldest the class as a whole has been at any time since 1950, and nearly two years older than the average age over that that 60-year period.
Derek Jeter, 37 and dying by inches on the biggest stage in sports, is emblematic of a declining class of middle infielders. The Giants opened the season trying to get by with Miguel Tejada, also 37. The man he replaced, Edgar Renteria, now with the Reds, is 34. The Red Sox began the year with a 35-year-old shortstop, Marco Scutaro. Jamey Carroll, who the Dodgers substituted for the injured Rafael Furcal, 33, is 37. Even seemingly younger shortstops who have lately received playing time in place of these decrepit graybeards, like Jed Lowrie and J.J. Hardy, have already celebrated their 27th birthdays, meaning they will soon pass the prime age for the position as baseball has defined it for at least half a century.
The Mets do have a promising player who is, at least, ostensibly a shortstop, an already-hulking teen named Wilmer Flores, but he is currently playing at High-A St. Lucie, meaning that he is at least two years from the majors. In any case, given his size, scouts believe he will outgrow short and be forced to third base or an outfield corner. The other internal option is Ruben Tejada, and while he's a nice young player, it's unlikely he will ever have the kind of impact that Reyes does.
Reyes, currently hitting .316/.366/.455 with a league-leading six triples, is already 28, but his speed, which manifests itself not only in those triples but in 17 stolen bases as well, should age well, as it should allow him to remain a viable defender for longer than the average player. His long-term work at the plate is more questionable given the way his patience has ebbed over time, but the capability is there.
Despite Wilpon's claim that Reyes has, "had everything wrong with him," he has had only one serious injury year in the last seven, that coming in 2009. Last year's thyroid imbalance was an unusual, off-field medical problem that seems unlikely to recur with proper medical care. Whoever acquires Reyes should find themselves in possession of a reasonably durable player.
The Mets need to rebuild, but Reyes can and should be part of that rebuilding. Without him, the path will be significantly longer and more difficult as the team struggles to find a replacement at a position where there are none to be had. It is almost impossible to trade a star player for an appreciable return because a contending team won't give up a star to get a star, and however highly prospects are rated, the odds are always against them becoming all-stars. That's why the star was valuable in the first place -- he's a rarity. In Reyes' case, that rarity is doubled by the current drought at his position.
On Thursday morning it was announced that the Wilpons had sold part of the Mets to hedge fund manager David Einhorn for $200 million. This seems unlikely to obviate the financial difficulties into which the club has been placed due to ownership being embroiled in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. Regardless, if the club is ever to regain its financial footing, whether for Wilpon or some other owner, it is important for it to maintain attendance and television ratings, something impossible without fielding a winning team. That task will be significantly easier with Reyes than with the nonentity that will surely have to replace him should he be traded or allowed to leave as a free agent.
This is not at all unusual; baseball has always gone through cycles in which a position suffers through a dearth of qualified applicants. There was even a moment in the American League of the late 1940s when shortstops outhit the first basemen -- somehow the circuit just couldn't find any solid mashers to stand at the gateway. Currently, the biggest void at any position is shortstop, and that makes the Mets handling of impending free agent Jose Reyes that much trickier because he is one of the game's rarest commodities, a star shortstop in his prime.
To get a sense of how losing Reyes would affect the Mets, we can look back to the catcher shortage of the early 21st century. After the 2002 season the Rangers had to make a decision as to whether to re-sign free agent Ivan Rodriguez after a year in which the then-30-year-old had hit .314/.353/.542 in a season shortened to 108 games by a herniated disc in his back. The Rangers demurred, allowing Rodriguez to go to Florida on a one-year contract. During that one year, and for the year after with Detroit, Rodriguez continued to perform at a high level, helping the 2003 Marlins win the World Series and pushing a moribund Tigers franchise back towards respectability.
Although Rodriguez declined rapidly after that second year, he remained a useful player relative to the class of catchers for most of the five-year contract he signed with the Tigers subsequent to the Marlins championship. Had the Rangers been able to re-sign him to a five-year contract after 2002, they would have been substantially better off than what they got instead -- one year of Einar Diaz and Todd Greene (aggregate: .247/.282/.379), followed by three years of Rod Barajas (.253/.294/.444), and onward through a malaise at the position that lasts to this day.
The Rangers' decision was not an easy one given Rodriguez's age, injury status, and the incredible catching workload he had been under since reaching the majors as a 19-year-old in 1991, but Reyes doesn't carry the same kind of risk. Though Mets owner Fred Wilpon tried to make what seems to be a decision not to retain Reyes in his now-infamous remarks in the most recent New Yorker, he should think twice about his shortstop's value. He would be by far the most attractive available shortstop in a period so devoid of good young players at the position that no matter who the Mets acquire in a potential Reyes trade, their value will be dramatically offset by the inevitable hard decline at the position.
Because the position demands speed, quick reflexes, and agility, shortstop has always been a job for the young -- until now. This year, the average age of shortstops throughout the majors is 28.8, the oldest the class as a whole has been at any time since 1950, and nearly two years older than the average age over that that 60-year period.
Derek Jeter, 37 and dying by inches on the biggest stage in sports, is emblematic of a declining class of middle infielders. The Giants opened the season trying to get by with Miguel Tejada, also 37. The man he replaced, Edgar Renteria, now with the Reds, is 34. The Red Sox began the year with a 35-year-old shortstop, Marco Scutaro. Jamey Carroll, who the Dodgers substituted for the injured Rafael Furcal, 33, is 37. Even seemingly younger shortstops who have lately received playing time in place of these decrepit graybeards, like Jed Lowrie and J.J. Hardy, have already celebrated their 27th birthdays, meaning they will soon pass the prime age for the position as baseball has defined it for at least half a century.
The Mets do have a promising player who is, at least, ostensibly a shortstop, an already-hulking teen named Wilmer Flores, but he is currently playing at High-A St. Lucie, meaning that he is at least two years from the majors. In any case, given his size, scouts believe he will outgrow short and be forced to third base or an outfield corner. The other internal option is Ruben Tejada, and while he's a nice young player, it's unlikely he will ever have the kind of impact that Reyes does.
Reyes, currently hitting .316/.366/.455 with a league-leading six triples, is already 28, but his speed, which manifests itself not only in those triples but in 17 stolen bases as well, should age well, as it should allow him to remain a viable defender for longer than the average player. His long-term work at the plate is more questionable given the way his patience has ebbed over time, but the capability is there.
Despite Wilpon's claim that Reyes has, "had everything wrong with him," he has had only one serious injury year in the last seven, that coming in 2009. Last year's thyroid imbalance was an unusual, off-field medical problem that seems unlikely to recur with proper medical care. Whoever acquires Reyes should find themselves in possession of a reasonably durable player.
The Mets need to rebuild, but Reyes can and should be part of that rebuilding. Without him, the path will be significantly longer and more difficult as the team struggles to find a replacement at a position where there are none to be had. It is almost impossible to trade a star player for an appreciable return because a contending team won't give up a star to get a star, and however highly prospects are rated, the odds are always against them becoming all-stars. That's why the star was valuable in the first place -- he's a rarity. In Reyes' case, that rarity is doubled by the current drought at his position.
On Thursday morning it was announced that the Wilpons had sold part of the Mets to hedge fund manager David Einhorn for $200 million. This seems unlikely to obviate the financial difficulties into which the club has been placed due to ownership being embroiled in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. Regardless, if the club is ever to regain its financial footing, whether for Wilpon or some other owner, it is important for it to maintain attendance and television ratings, something impossible without fielding a winning team. That task will be significantly easier with Reyes than with the nonentity that will surely have to replace him should he be traded or allowed to leave as a free agent.
Catchers blocking the plate.
Bryce Harper's fast track to the bigs.
Trading Heath Bell.
Replacing Reyes.
Spoiler [+]
The major injury concern that the Giants had with catcher Buster Posey, as manager Bruce Bochy explained on the phone Wednesday afternoon, was because of foul tips. Posey had taken a couple of foul balls off his face mask, and Bochy said the Giants had an internal conversation about whether Posey should wear a different kind of mask.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Marcio Jose SanchezIf it involved even a simple valuation -- one run versus major injury risk -- this play doesn't happen.
Bochy had asked Posey if his young catcher had tried the old-fashioned catcher's mask, with its thick padding over the chin and jawline and forehead. Posey had responded that he had always worn the hockey-goalie style mask, which sits more flush against the face of a catcher, and he couldn't imagine leaving some part of his face exposed. It was a conversation that Posey wanted to have another day; his manager intended to bring it up again.
But that is the least of the Giants' worries, in the aftermath of the devastating leg injury that Posey suffered while blocking home plate in the 12th inning Thursday night. As soon as the Marlins' Scott Cousins hit him, with Posey's left ankle twisting grotesquely underneath him, Posey rolled onto his stomach and began slapping the ground in agony; Cousins immediately checked on Posey.
He was helped off the field, his left leg dangling, and the Giants will have a better idea later today of how long Posey will be out. But anything seems possible.
In the still photographs of the play, Posey's foot was pointing in the wrong direction, writes Andrew Baggarly. Posey is the last guy that the Giants want to lose, Miguel Tejada told Henry Schulman.
How different the Giants' world would seem today if San Francisco hadn't rallied for four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game.
What can the Giants do if Posey is out for an extended period? Well, not much, as the Boston Red Sox and many other teams can tell them, from their own searches for catchers in the past year. If Posey's injury is a season-ender, San Francisco could call Bengie Molina -- but when other teams have called Molina and asked him about spending weeks in the minors to prepare, they haven't been greeted with overwhelming enthusiasm; his preference apparently is to be quickly promoted into the big leagues.
• What follows is not meant to be a criticism of Posey or Scott Cousins: In the current world of assessing value, the act of blocking home plate is simply not worth the potential cost. Not even close.
There is a reason why outfielders don't dive headfirst into walls and hitters don't stick their heads over the plate with the bases loaded; players don't willfully put themselves at risk of significant injury for one run, for one play.
And yet it is expected of catchers to plant themselves in front of home plate -- often off-balance, often while blind to the precise whereabouts of an oncoming baserunner, who is barreling toward him at full speed, with full intent of hitting him the way a Yankee Stadium security man hits a drunk who has run on the field. The catcher is completely vulnerable.
[h3][/h3]
There is a reason why outfielders don't dive headfirst into walls and hitters don't stick their heads over the plate with the bases loaded; players don't willfully put themselves at risk of significant injury for one run, for one play.
Buck Martinez had his leg shattered blocking home plate. Many catchers have been knocked out cold. Carlos Santana stuck his leg out last year, missed two months -- and was thought to be lucky, considering the nature of the injury.
Posey is one of the top young players in the game, having won the Rookie of the Year and a championship before serving a full season in the majors; he is regarded as much of a cornerstone of the Giants' organization, going forward, as Adrian Gonzalez is for the Red Sox or Felix Hernandez is for the Mariners. The Giants have millions invested in Posey already, because of the tens of millions of dollars they expect he will earn for them, because his production will prompt fans to watch them.
And depending on the severity of his injury, he could be out for a few weeks or a few months, or longer; depending on the severity of his injury, Posey may have just passed through a career crossroads, as Ray Fosse did when he blocked the plate in the 1970 All-Star Game.
For what?
To possibly save one run in an extra-inning game in May?
It's not worth it. It's not even close.
It's time that catchers should be taught differently. And it may be time for Major League Baseball and the Players Association to talk about taking this play -- the catcher blocking home plate -- out of the sport.
Under baseball rules, a pitcher cannot intentionally hit another player with a pitch; doing that leads to warnings, ejections, fines and suspensions. There are rules in place, actually, against obstruction; if a third baseman moving into position for a relay from the outfield merely crosses in front of a runner and the umpire judges that the third baseman has impeded the runner, even without contact, the ump has the power to advance the runner.
But for some reason, a catcher is expected to plant himself in front of home plate, blocking access to the runner -- something which, by the way, is against the rules -- and the runner is expected to blast his way to home plate, in whatever manner possible. Both players are put at much greater risk than in any other play in the sport; it's like having a pile-driving contest in the middle of a tennis match.
It's not worth it. It's not even close.
One of the great aspects of the Moneyball era is that standard operating procedures have been challenged, questioned, dissected. The fact that something is done simply because that's the way it's always been done is not good enough. Changes are made.
And a change should be made with this play. Catchers should tag out runners the same way that third basemen and second basemen and shortstops have for decades.
To expect catchers to block the plate is just not worth it. It's not even close.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Before the Posey injury, it had been a fun night of baseball, with the Reds and Phillies playing 19 innings and turning Wilson Valdez into a trivia answer: He is the first position player to start a game in the field and then eventually become the winning pitcher since Babe Ruth in 1921, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Some more nuggets, from ESPN Stats & Information: The Reds-Phillies matchup on Wednesday night was the longest, by time and inning, of the season. The game was the longest game in Philadelphia in terms of innings since July 7, 1993, when the Phillies beat the Dodgers in 20 innings. It's the longest MLB game in terms of innings since the Mets and Cardinals played 20 innings last year on April 17. It is also tied for the longest Reds-Phillies game ever (19 innings on Sept. 15, 1950). In that game, both teams had two pitchers pitch at least seven innings, which was the longest any pitcher went in Wednesday's contest (Halladay started and went seven). The Reds-Phillies game by the numbers:
[h4]Marathon Games[/h4]
Comparing two extremely long Wednesday night games:
[th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]WCU vs Elon[/th][th=""]Reds vs Phillies[/th]
Pitches: 600
Players used: 41
Left on base: 33
Plate appearances: 155
Strikeouts: 27
Putouts by 1B: 38
Bullpen IP: 24 2/3
Combined RISP: 4-for-28
Game time: 6:11.10
College baseball also featured a marathon game on Wednesday between Western Carolina and Elon. A comparison of the games is at right.
• Frank McCourt is telling Major League Baseball he will make payroll in the days ahead.
• Rubby De La Rosa is surprised to have been called up by the Dodgers.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. Zack Greinke had a really good day, as Tom Haudricourt writes. How he won, from ESPN Stats & Information:
A) Greinke had a dominant slider that he saved for when he had two strikes in the count. He threw 12 of his 15 sliders with two strikes, striking out six Nationals hitters with the pitch. All 12 of Greinke's sliders with two strikes were out of the strike zone, and the Nationals swung eight times against them. Washington hitters missed on six of those eight swings.
B) His slider was effective because of the movement he had with the pitch. His slider had by far his most downward movement this year, moving almost an inch further down than in any prior start. It highlights an interesting change with Greinke's slider from last year to this, as he's sacrificing velocity for movement. His average slider has been about 2 mph slower than last year, but it's breaking almost 2 inches further down and over 2 inches more to Greinke's glove side.
2. Trevor Cahill had a bout of wildness.
3. After losing Wednesday, Jo-Jo Reyes has 28 consecutive winless starts dating back to June 13, 2008. Over that time period, 67 pitchers have won 28 or more games. The most wins since Reyes' last win:
CC Sabathia: 58
Roy Halladay: 56
Jon Lester: 52
Justin Verlander: 49
Bronson Arroyo: 46
Most consecutive winless starts in MLB history:
Jo-Jo Reyes: 28 (2008-11)
Matt Keough: 28 (1978-79)
Cliff Curtis: 28 (1910-11)
• Reyes is scheduled to make his next start on Memorial Day at home against the Indians.
4. With Wednesday's game, Mariano Rivera has now appeared in 1,000 games in his career. He is the 15th pitcher all-time to appear in 1,000 games and the first to reach that total with one team. Per Elias, the most games pitched for one team in MLB history starts with Rivera at 1,000 for the Yankees, followed by Trevor Hoffman at 902 for the Padres, Walter Johnson with 802 for the Senators and Roy Face with 802 for the Pirates. Among active pitchers, the pitcher whose team has the best winning percentage when he pitches (minimum 500 appearances) is Mariano Rivera's .850. Joe Nathan's teams rank second (.793). The all-time leader among those retired is Billy Wagner (.780).
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Marcio Jose SanchezIf it involved even a simple valuation -- one run versus major injury risk -- this play doesn't happen.
Bochy had asked Posey if his young catcher had tried the old-fashioned catcher's mask, with its thick padding over the chin and jawline and forehead. Posey had responded that he had always worn the hockey-goalie style mask, which sits more flush against the face of a catcher, and he couldn't imagine leaving some part of his face exposed. It was a conversation that Posey wanted to have another day; his manager intended to bring it up again.
But that is the least of the Giants' worries, in the aftermath of the devastating leg injury that Posey suffered while blocking home plate in the 12th inning Thursday night. As soon as the Marlins' Scott Cousins hit him, with Posey's left ankle twisting grotesquely underneath him, Posey rolled onto his stomach and began slapping the ground in agony; Cousins immediately checked on Posey.
He was helped off the field, his left leg dangling, and the Giants will have a better idea later today of how long Posey will be out. But anything seems possible.
In the still photographs of the play, Posey's foot was pointing in the wrong direction, writes Andrew Baggarly. Posey is the last guy that the Giants want to lose, Miguel Tejada told Henry Schulman.
How different the Giants' world would seem today if San Francisco hadn't rallied for four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game.
What can the Giants do if Posey is out for an extended period? Well, not much, as the Boston Red Sox and many other teams can tell them, from their own searches for catchers in the past year. If Posey's injury is a season-ender, San Francisco could call Bengie Molina -- but when other teams have called Molina and asked him about spending weeks in the minors to prepare, they haven't been greeted with overwhelming enthusiasm; his preference apparently is to be quickly promoted into the big leagues.
• What follows is not meant to be a criticism of Posey or Scott Cousins: In the current world of assessing value, the act of blocking home plate is simply not worth the potential cost. Not even close.
There is a reason why outfielders don't dive headfirst into walls and hitters don't stick their heads over the plate with the bases loaded; players don't willfully put themselves at risk of significant injury for one run, for one play.
And yet it is expected of catchers to plant themselves in front of home plate -- often off-balance, often while blind to the precise whereabouts of an oncoming baserunner, who is barreling toward him at full speed, with full intent of hitting him the way a Yankee Stadium security man hits a drunk who has run on the field. The catcher is completely vulnerable.
[h3][/h3]
There is a reason why outfielders don't dive headfirst into walls and hitters don't stick their heads over the plate with the bases loaded; players don't willfully put themselves at risk of significant injury for one run, for one play.
Buck Martinez had his leg shattered blocking home plate. Many catchers have been knocked out cold. Carlos Santana stuck his leg out last year, missed two months -- and was thought to be lucky, considering the nature of the injury.
Posey is one of the top young players in the game, having won the Rookie of the Year and a championship before serving a full season in the majors; he is regarded as much of a cornerstone of the Giants' organization, going forward, as Adrian Gonzalez is for the Red Sox or Felix Hernandez is for the Mariners. The Giants have millions invested in Posey already, because of the tens of millions of dollars they expect he will earn for them, because his production will prompt fans to watch them.
And depending on the severity of his injury, he could be out for a few weeks or a few months, or longer; depending on the severity of his injury, Posey may have just passed through a career crossroads, as Ray Fosse did when he blocked the plate in the 1970 All-Star Game.
For what?
To possibly save one run in an extra-inning game in May?
It's not worth it. It's not even close.
It's time that catchers should be taught differently. And it may be time for Major League Baseball and the Players Association to talk about taking this play -- the catcher blocking home plate -- out of the sport.
Under baseball rules, a pitcher cannot intentionally hit another player with a pitch; doing that leads to warnings, ejections, fines and suspensions. There are rules in place, actually, against obstruction; if a third baseman moving into position for a relay from the outfield merely crosses in front of a runner and the umpire judges that the third baseman has impeded the runner, even without contact, the ump has the power to advance the runner.
But for some reason, a catcher is expected to plant himself in front of home plate, blocking access to the runner -- something which, by the way, is against the rules -- and the runner is expected to blast his way to home plate, in whatever manner possible. Both players are put at much greater risk than in any other play in the sport; it's like having a pile-driving contest in the middle of a tennis match.
It's not worth it. It's not even close.
One of the great aspects of the Moneyball era is that standard operating procedures have been challenged, questioned, dissected. The fact that something is done simply because that's the way it's always been done is not good enough. Changes are made.
And a change should be made with this play. Catchers should tag out runners the same way that third basemen and second basemen and shortstops have for decades.
To expect catchers to block the plate is just not worth it. It's not even close.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Before the Posey injury, it had been a fun night of baseball, with the Reds and Phillies playing 19 innings and turning Wilson Valdez into a trivia answer: He is the first position player to start a game in the field and then eventually become the winning pitcher since Babe Ruth in 1921, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Some more nuggets, from ESPN Stats & Information: The Reds-Phillies matchup on Wednesday night was the longest, by time and inning, of the season. The game was the longest game in Philadelphia in terms of innings since July 7, 1993, when the Phillies beat the Dodgers in 20 innings. It's the longest MLB game in terms of innings since the Mets and Cardinals played 20 innings last year on April 17. It is also tied for the longest Reds-Phillies game ever (19 innings on Sept. 15, 1950). In that game, both teams had two pitchers pitch at least seven innings, which was the longest any pitcher went in Wednesday's contest (Halladay started and went seven). The Reds-Phillies game by the numbers:
[h4]Marathon Games[/h4]
Comparing two extremely long Wednesday night games:
| Innings | 20 | 19 |
| Time of Game | 6:33 | 6:11 |
| Attendance | 937 | 45,706 |
| Game Ended | 11:33 PM ET | 1:19 AM ET |
| Pitchers used | 13 | 16 |
| Pitches thrown | 639 | 600 |
| Final score | WCU, 10-7 | Phillies, 5-4 |
Pitches: 600
Players used: 41
Left on base: 33
Plate appearances: 155
Strikeouts: 27
Putouts by 1B: 38
Bullpen IP: 24 2/3
Combined RISP: 4-for-28
Game time: 6:11.10
College baseball also featured a marathon game on Wednesday between Western Carolina and Elon. A comparison of the games is at right.
• Frank McCourt is telling Major League Baseball he will make payroll in the days ahead.
• Rubby De La Rosa is surprised to have been called up by the Dodgers.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. Zack Greinke had a really good day, as Tom Haudricourt writes. How he won, from ESPN Stats & Information:
A) Greinke had a dominant slider that he saved for when he had two strikes in the count. He threw 12 of his 15 sliders with two strikes, striking out six Nationals hitters with the pitch. All 12 of Greinke's sliders with two strikes were out of the strike zone, and the Nationals swung eight times against them. Washington hitters missed on six of those eight swings.
B) His slider was effective because of the movement he had with the pitch. His slider had by far his most downward movement this year, moving almost an inch further down than in any prior start. It highlights an interesting change with Greinke's slider from last year to this, as he's sacrificing velocity for movement. His average slider has been about 2 mph slower than last year, but it's breaking almost 2 inches further down and over 2 inches more to Greinke's glove side.
2. Trevor Cahill had a bout of wildness.
3. After losing Wednesday, Jo-Jo Reyes has 28 consecutive winless starts dating back to June 13, 2008. Over that time period, 67 pitchers have won 28 or more games. The most wins since Reyes' last win:
CC Sabathia: 58
Roy Halladay: 56
Jon Lester: 52
Justin Verlander: 49
Bronson Arroyo: 46
Most consecutive winless starts in MLB history:
Jo-Jo Reyes: 28 (2008-11)
Matt Keough: 28 (1978-79)
Cliff Curtis: 28 (1910-11)
• Reyes is scheduled to make his next start on Memorial Day at home against the Indians.
4. With Wednesday's game, Mariano Rivera has now appeared in 1,000 games in his career. He is the 15th pitcher all-time to appear in 1,000 games and the first to reach that total with one team. Per Elias, the most games pitched for one team in MLB history starts with Rivera at 1,000 for the Yankees, followed by Trevor Hoffman at 902 for the Padres, Walter Johnson with 802 for the Senators and Roy Face with 802 for the Pirates. Among active pitchers, the pitcher whose team has the best winning percentage when he pitches (minimum 500 appearances) is Mariano Rivera's .850. Joe Nathan's teams rank second (.793). The all-time leader among those retired is Billy Wagner (.780).
Bryce Harper's fast track to the bigs.
Spoiler [+]
Arguably, the most impressive part about Bryce Harper's career up to this point has been his ability to consistently exceed expectations despite being among the most hyped prospects in the history of the game.
Tales of his achievements across the high school diamonds of Las Vegas were already the stuff of legend when he cut his prep career short by two years in order to play a season of junior college baseball in preparation for the 2010 draft. Entering the spring as the overwhelming favorite to be the top pick, scouts would have been impressed if Harper merely held his own in a good conference that uses wooden bats. Instead, he rewrote the College Of Southern Nevada record book, hitting .443 and slugging 31 home runs to eclipse the school record by a mere 19.
[h4]Curtain Call[/h4]
Everywhere Bryce Harper goes, attention follows. Jerry Crasnick gets inside the action with Harper and the Hagerstown Suns.
Just 17 years old when signed to a record deal by the Washington Nationals, Harper began his professional career in the Arizona Fall League, playing against and with upper-level prospects, many of whom have already reached the big leagues. After slugging .639 in limited play, one scout said, "He's a child and he not only belonged on the field with those guys, he stood out."
His official career got off to a slow start in April, but a pair of contact lenses got him back on track, and heading into Thursday night's action he was batting a whopping .340/.425/.615 for Low-A Hagerstown in the South Atlantic League. He's been intentionally walked five times in his past 23 games. That's nearly unheard of at this level, as last year's season leader had six.
There is no statistical or scouting evidence to say Harper is not good, or even not very good. But just how good can he be? To find out, let's go through the traditional five tools and walk through the ranges a number of scouts projected for him as a big leaguer on the 20-80 scale (with 50 being major league average) based on early season looks.
[h5]Hitting: 50-65[/h5]
There is a somewhat wide range on Harper's ultimate ability, with this spectrum representing a .270-.300 hitter. He takes an enormous, violent swing, but scouts are consistently surprised at how much contact he makes with it. While he's currently striking out once every 4.4 at-bats, that's actually a promising number considering his age and what was once a exaggerated front step that included a strange knee twist has been muted considerably. He's not going to win batting titles, but he's certainly not going to be a low-average, one-dimensional slugger either.
[h5]Power: 80[/h5]
"He's basically Superman, " -- NL Scout.
"It's freakish," -- AL Scout
The 20-80 scale is on a bell curve, so 80s are rare, but even more difficult is to find such a grade that scouts are universal on. There are plenty of big and strong teenagers out there, but finding one with the type of advanced, right-now ability to drive balls to all fields while adding the necessary loft and backspin forces scouts to dig deep for comparisons.
[h4]Bryce Harper[/h4][h5]#34 RF
Hagerstown Suns[/h5]
2011 STATS
"I don't think we've seen a high school player like this since Alex Rodriguez," said one talent evaluator, referring to the Yankees third baseman who was the No. 1 overall pick when Harper was not yet 8 months old. Before he was mashing 465-foot home runs in the big leagues, Mike Stanton was seen as the prospect most likely to hit 50 home runs in a single big league season, and now Harper wears that crown.
[h5]Glove: 50-60[/h5]
Harper was a catcher as an amateur, but moved immediately to the outfield after signing. It was for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, he just wasn't a good receiver, and while his bat could be ready for the big leagues before Harper's 20th birthday, developing him into a big league defender behind the plate could take an extra two or three seasons. In addition, having him catch is an injury risk and waste of his current athleticism, while also forcing him to the bench for 20-plus games a season for rest.
He's taken well to the outfield, even playing center field on occasion, and while there are some improvements needed in his reads and routes, scouts believe he'll end up a good right fielder in the end. "What impressed me so much is that he's clearly working hard to improve out there, and you don't always see that in kids that are special hitters," one scout said.
[h5]Arm: 70-80[/h5]
One of the reasons Harper played catcher was that his arm was such a weapon. He pitched in the low-90s as an amateur, and he's already racked up four outfield assists in the young season. With strength, carry and accuracy, big league base runners will be hesitant when looking for the extra base on balls hit his way.
[h5]Speed: 30-50[/h5]
While speed is the least important part of Harper's game, a discussion of how he projects down the road delves deeper into the projected final product. He's plenty fast now, showing times from home to first that are consistently a tick better than average, and he's stolen seven bases in 10 attempts so far down on the farm. "I think that when he comes up, he could steal 15-20 bases per year," one scout said. The real debate concerns what he will look like physically by the time he is in his late 20s.
Already 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Harper is a massive human being for an 18 year old and not done filling out, leaving some scouts to fear that by the time he has matured, he'll be a 250-pound beast more in the mold of a massive first baseman as opposed to a multi-tooled outfielder. Such growth would certainly limit him to an outfield corner, and could affect his offensive numbers in other ways, as reduced speed means fewer singles, doubles and triples. "I'm still not sure what he's going to be in the end, other than a really good hitter," another scout said. "He's could be this superstar who could beat you in a bunch of ways, but if he keeps growing, he could end up being a big, slow first baseman who reminds one physically of Ryan Howard."
[h5]Makeup:[/h5]
There is no score for makeup, but it still needs to be discussed. While it never came close to outweighing his talent, Harper's arrogant, confrontational style of play turned off many during his high school and college years, and he's yet to really temper it as a pro, which has already led to a couple of near brawls due to a propensity to stare down opposing pitchers or gesticulate toward dugouts. "It seems to happen every night, and it might not change until he gets to the big leagues where teammates won't put up with those antics," a NL team executive said. "Then again, maybe he'll hit four home runs in his first week and everyone will shut up."
[h5]The Verdict: [/h5]
While Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has already clearly expressed that Harper will spend all of the 2011 season in the minors, reaching the big leagues as a teenager is still a distinct possibility with a call up by the end of the 2012 season.
In the past quarter century, only 12 position players have reached the majors before their 20th birthday, and those 12 have combined for 51 All-Star game appearances, four MVP awards and another 24 top-10 finishes in the voting. It takes a special talent just to get there so quickly, and Harper is going to likely do just that. Don't bet against him continuing to exceed the expectations that really couldn't get any higher.
Tales of his achievements across the high school diamonds of Las Vegas were already the stuff of legend when he cut his prep career short by two years in order to play a season of junior college baseball in preparation for the 2010 draft. Entering the spring as the overwhelming favorite to be the top pick, scouts would have been impressed if Harper merely held his own in a good conference that uses wooden bats. Instead, he rewrote the College Of Southern Nevada record book, hitting .443 and slugging 31 home runs to eclipse the school record by a mere 19.
[h4]Curtain Call[/h4]
Everywhere Bryce Harper goes, attention follows. Jerry Crasnick gets inside the action with Harper and the Hagerstown Suns.
Just 17 years old when signed to a record deal by the Washington Nationals, Harper began his professional career in the Arizona Fall League, playing against and with upper-level prospects, many of whom have already reached the big leagues. After slugging .639 in limited play, one scout said, "He's a child and he not only belonged on the field with those guys, he stood out."
His official career got off to a slow start in April, but a pair of contact lenses got him back on track, and heading into Thursday night's action he was batting a whopping .340/.425/.615 for Low-A Hagerstown in the South Atlantic League. He's been intentionally walked five times in his past 23 games. That's nearly unheard of at this level, as last year's season leader had six.
There is no statistical or scouting evidence to say Harper is not good, or even not very good. But just how good can he be? To find out, let's go through the traditional five tools and walk through the ranges a number of scouts projected for him as a big leaguer on the 20-80 scale (with 50 being major league average) based on early season looks.
[h5]Hitting: 50-65[/h5]
There is a somewhat wide range on Harper's ultimate ability, with this spectrum representing a .270-.300 hitter. He takes an enormous, violent swing, but scouts are consistently surprised at how much contact he makes with it. While he's currently striking out once every 4.4 at-bats, that's actually a promising number considering his age and what was once a exaggerated front step that included a strange knee twist has been muted considerably. He's not going to win batting titles, but he's certainly not going to be a low-average, one-dimensional slugger either.
[h5]Power: 80[/h5]
"He's basically Superman, " -- NL Scout.
"It's freakish," -- AL Scout
The 20-80 scale is on a bell curve, so 80s are rare, but even more difficult is to find such a grade that scouts are universal on. There are plenty of big and strong teenagers out there, but finding one with the type of advanced, right-now ability to drive balls to all fields while adding the necessary loft and backspin forces scouts to dig deep for comparisons.
[h4]Bryce Harper[/h4][h5]#34 RFHagerstown Suns[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM43
- HR10
- RBI34
- R31
- OBP.425
- AVG.340
"I don't think we've seen a high school player like this since Alex Rodriguez," said one talent evaluator, referring to the Yankees third baseman who was the No. 1 overall pick when Harper was not yet 8 months old. Before he was mashing 465-foot home runs in the big leagues, Mike Stanton was seen as the prospect most likely to hit 50 home runs in a single big league season, and now Harper wears that crown.
[h5]Glove: 50-60[/h5]
Harper was a catcher as an amateur, but moved immediately to the outfield after signing. It was for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, he just wasn't a good receiver, and while his bat could be ready for the big leagues before Harper's 20th birthday, developing him into a big league defender behind the plate could take an extra two or three seasons. In addition, having him catch is an injury risk and waste of his current athleticism, while also forcing him to the bench for 20-plus games a season for rest.
He's taken well to the outfield, even playing center field on occasion, and while there are some improvements needed in his reads and routes, scouts believe he'll end up a good right fielder in the end. "What impressed me so much is that he's clearly working hard to improve out there, and you don't always see that in kids that are special hitters," one scout said.
[h5]Arm: 70-80[/h5]
One of the reasons Harper played catcher was that his arm was such a weapon. He pitched in the low-90s as an amateur, and he's already racked up four outfield assists in the young season. With strength, carry and accuracy, big league base runners will be hesitant when looking for the extra base on balls hit his way.
[h5]Speed: 30-50[/h5]
While speed is the least important part of Harper's game, a discussion of how he projects down the road delves deeper into the projected final product. He's plenty fast now, showing times from home to first that are consistently a tick better than average, and he's stolen seven bases in 10 attempts so far down on the farm. "I think that when he comes up, he could steal 15-20 bases per year," one scout said. The real debate concerns what he will look like physically by the time he is in his late 20s.
Already 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Harper is a massive human being for an 18 year old and not done filling out, leaving some scouts to fear that by the time he has matured, he'll be a 250-pound beast more in the mold of a massive first baseman as opposed to a multi-tooled outfielder. Such growth would certainly limit him to an outfield corner, and could affect his offensive numbers in other ways, as reduced speed means fewer singles, doubles and triples. "I'm still not sure what he's going to be in the end, other than a really good hitter," another scout said. "He's could be this superstar who could beat you in a bunch of ways, but if he keeps growing, he could end up being a big, slow first baseman who reminds one physically of Ryan Howard."
[h5]Makeup:[/h5]
There is no score for makeup, but it still needs to be discussed. While it never came close to outweighing his talent, Harper's arrogant, confrontational style of play turned off many during his high school and college years, and he's yet to really temper it as a pro, which has already led to a couple of near brawls due to a propensity to stare down opposing pitchers or gesticulate toward dugouts. "It seems to happen every night, and it might not change until he gets to the big leagues where teammates won't put up with those antics," a NL team executive said. "Then again, maybe he'll hit four home runs in his first week and everyone will shut up."
[h5]The Verdict: [/h5]
While Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has already clearly expressed that Harper will spend all of the 2011 season in the minors, reaching the big leagues as a teenager is still a distinct possibility with a call up by the end of the 2012 season.
In the past quarter century, only 12 position players have reached the majors before their 20th birthday, and those 12 have combined for 51 All-Star game appearances, four MVP awards and another 24 top-10 finishes in the voting. It takes a special talent just to get there so quickly, and Harper is going to likely do just that. Don't bet against him continuing to exceed the expectations that really couldn't get any higher.
Trading Heath Bell.
Spoiler [+]
On May 14, Heath Bell was brought on for the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies to protect a 9-7 lead for the San Diego Padres. It was the first time he had pitched in six days, and he easily dispatched Jonathan Herrera, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to earn the save and help the Padres improve to 16-23. Bell hasn't had a save opportunity since then, and the Padres have lost seven of 10 to fall deeper into the NL West cellar.
Unlike last year, when San Diego surprised the baseball world by contending until the season's final day, this year's Adrian Gonzalez-less version isn't likely to provide such theatrics. And on a team that has no hope of contending for the playoffs, having a high-priced closer like Bell is simply a waste of resources. The 33-year-old will hit free agency this winter, and there has been speculation that the Padres will look to move him before the trade deadline -- CBSSports.com reported yesterday that the Texas Rangers have shown interest. If San Diego is smart, it will move Bell sooner rather than later, because the market for him could disappear.
In theory, there should be no shortage of suitors for a closer with a 2.00 ERA who has struck out more than a man per inning over the course of his career. In practice, the Padres will run into a problem of supply and demand. There aren't that many teams looking to acquire a big-money closer, yet there are plenty of pitchers who fit that description who could be on the market. In addition to Bell, you have Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Marmol and possibly even Joakim Soria, all of whom have two things in common: They make a lot of money and they play for teams that won't be popping corks this fall.
If you examine the contenders, most of them have their closer spot settled. The Milwaukee Brewers probably aren't thrilled with John Axford (4.03 ERA), and the Cardinals might not have fully bought into the Fernando Salas experience just yet, but teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Phillies, Indians, Angels, Reds, Giants and Rockies all have closers performing well or are not the type to go out and acquire an expensive reliever. And while these clubs will all probably explore the relief market at some point before the July 31 trade deadline, the price point of Bell, K-Rod et al might be a little much.
That leaves the Padres, Mets, Cubs and Royals in a tough spot. Even if they want to move their big-money closers, there probably won't be many suitors. The Mets and Padres could be particularly aggressive since their respective closers are free agents, with Rodriguez holding a $17.5 million option that vests if he finishes 55 games; Marmol is due just $3.2 million this year, but almost $17 million over the next two; and Soria is making $4 million in 2011, with club options ranging from $6-8.75 million in each of the next three seasons. (Though his recent struggles will probably make the Royals reluctant to move him because his trade value is probably the lowest it has ever been.)
[h4]Heath Bell[/h4][h5]#21 RP
San Diego Padres[/h5]
2011 STATS
We all know that teams still place a premium on the "proven closer," which means it would not be surprising to see one of these guys move this summer, even if it's to pitch in a setup role. Therefore, the prudent move for San Diego is to deal Bell before these other clubs make their closers available, at which point he becomes much harder to move.
Spending big money on a closer is almost always a bad idea, though, particularly for a bad team. If nothing else, you're better off finding someone else to pay them, even if it's a trade for 50 cents on the dollar; the money saved is more useful than a couple of meaningless saves in September. And if there was ever a season in which to clear up some extra cash -- not to mention whatever you can get in a trade -- it's this one. Not only is this considered one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, it's also the last one under the current collective bargaining agreement. Most of the buzz suggests that MLB will institute an NBA-style slotting system in the next CBA, which means teams won't be able to leverage their financial resources in order to get a kid to sign on the dotted line.
To give a practical example, let's look at Austin Hedges, one of the top high school catchers in this year's draft. He has told teams he's committed to attending UCLA, and even though Keith Law ranks him as the No. 31 prospect in this year's draft , he might drop out of the first couple of rounds because teams don't think they can sign him. However, a club might pop him in the third round and say, "We'll give you top-15 money to sign with us." As is often the case, that's the kind of dough that will make a prospect reconsider college. But in order to make those kinds of offers, you need to have cash available.
If the Padres trade Bell this season, they won't have to pay whatever is left of his $7.5 million salary at that time. That could be more than $4 million depending on when they deal him -- enough money to get very aggressive in the draft. This tactic is a big reason why the Royals now have the best farm system in baseball, and they used it most notably to sign right fielder Wil Myers for $2 million in the third round in 2009 to buy him out of his commitment to South Carolina. San Diego ranked 16th in Law's organizational rankings, and is in desperate need of youngsters with upside.
If the Padres want to have that kind of flexibility in the draft, they need to move Bell. The already-shallow market could evaporate rather quickly if other teams with expensive closers start looking to trade them.
Unlike last year, when San Diego surprised the baseball world by contending until the season's final day, this year's Adrian Gonzalez-less version isn't likely to provide such theatrics. And on a team that has no hope of contending for the playoffs, having a high-priced closer like Bell is simply a waste of resources. The 33-year-old will hit free agency this winter, and there has been speculation that the Padres will look to move him before the trade deadline -- CBSSports.com reported yesterday that the Texas Rangers have shown interest. If San Diego is smart, it will move Bell sooner rather than later, because the market for him could disappear.
In theory, there should be no shortage of suitors for a closer with a 2.00 ERA who has struck out more than a man per inning over the course of his career. In practice, the Padres will run into a problem of supply and demand. There aren't that many teams looking to acquire a big-money closer, yet there are plenty of pitchers who fit that description who could be on the market. In addition to Bell, you have Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Marmol and possibly even Joakim Soria, all of whom have two things in common: They make a lot of money and they play for teams that won't be popping corks this fall.
If you examine the contenders, most of them have their closer spot settled. The Milwaukee Brewers probably aren't thrilled with John Axford (4.03 ERA), and the Cardinals might not have fully bought into the Fernando Salas experience just yet, but teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Phillies, Indians, Angels, Reds, Giants and Rockies all have closers performing well or are not the type to go out and acquire an expensive reliever. And while these clubs will all probably explore the relief market at some point before the July 31 trade deadline, the price point of Bell, K-Rod et al might be a little much.
That leaves the Padres, Mets, Cubs and Royals in a tough spot. Even if they want to move their big-money closers, there probably won't be many suitors. The Mets and Padres could be particularly aggressive since their respective closers are free agents, with Rodriguez holding a $17.5 million option that vests if he finishes 55 games; Marmol is due just $3.2 million this year, but almost $17 million over the next two; and Soria is making $4 million in 2011, with club options ranging from $6-8.75 million in each of the next three seasons. (Though his recent struggles will probably make the Royals reluctant to move him because his trade value is probably the lowest it has ever been.)
[h4]Heath Bell[/h4][h5]#21 RPSan Diego Padres[/h5]
2011 STATS
- GM18
- W2
- L1
- BB6
- K12
- ERA2.00
We all know that teams still place a premium on the "proven closer," which means it would not be surprising to see one of these guys move this summer, even if it's to pitch in a setup role. Therefore, the prudent move for San Diego is to deal Bell before these other clubs make their closers available, at which point he becomes much harder to move.
Spending big money on a closer is almost always a bad idea, though, particularly for a bad team. If nothing else, you're better off finding someone else to pay them, even if it's a trade for 50 cents on the dollar; the money saved is more useful than a couple of meaningless saves in September. And if there was ever a season in which to clear up some extra cash -- not to mention whatever you can get in a trade -- it's this one. Not only is this considered one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, it's also the last one under the current collective bargaining agreement. Most of the buzz suggests that MLB will institute an NBA-style slotting system in the next CBA, which means teams won't be able to leverage their financial resources in order to get a kid to sign on the dotted line.
To give a practical example, let's look at Austin Hedges, one of the top high school catchers in this year's draft. He has told teams he's committed to attending UCLA, and even though Keith Law ranks him as the No. 31 prospect in this year's draft , he might drop out of the first couple of rounds because teams don't think they can sign him. However, a club might pop him in the third round and say, "We'll give you top-15 money to sign with us." As is often the case, that's the kind of dough that will make a prospect reconsider college. But in order to make those kinds of offers, you need to have cash available.
If the Padres trade Bell this season, they won't have to pay whatever is left of his $7.5 million salary at that time. That could be more than $4 million depending on when they deal him -- enough money to get very aggressive in the draft. This tactic is a big reason why the Royals now have the best farm system in baseball, and they used it most notably to sign right fielder Wil Myers for $2 million in the third round in 2009 to buy him out of his commitment to South Carolina. San Diego ranked 16th in Law's organizational rankings, and is in desperate need of youngsters with upside.
If the Padres want to have that kind of flexibility in the draft, they need to move Bell. The already-shallow market could evaporate rather quickly if other teams with expensive closers start looking to trade them.
Replacing Reyes.
Spoiler [+]
Eight years ago, the class of major-league catchers was older than it had been at any time in the last 60 years. In 2003, the average major-league backstop was over 30 years old. In the early- to mid-1990s, there had been an influx of strong catchers into the majors, among them Javy Lopez, Jorge Posada, Jason Kendall, Jason Varitek, Charles Johnson, Mike Lieberthal, and Ivan Rodriguez, all of them except for Kendall born between November, 1970 and July, 1972. A few years after the turn of the millennium, those players were now in their early 30s, but the next generation had largely failed to arrive in the interim.
This is not at all unusual; baseball has always gone through cycles in which a position suffers through a dearth of qualified applicants. There was even a moment in the American League of the late 1940s when shortstops outhit the first basemen -- somehow the circuit just couldn't find any solid mashers to stand at the gateway. Currently, the biggest void at any position is shortstop, and that makes the Mets handling of impending free agent Jose Reyes that much trickier because he is one of the game's rarest commodities, a star shortstop in his prime.
To get a sense of how losing Reyes would affect the Mets, we can look back to the catcher shortage of the early 21st century. After the 2002 season the Rangers had to make a decision as to whether to re-sign free agent Ivan Rodriguez after a year in which the then-30-year-old had hit .314/.353/.542 in a season shortened to 108 games by a herniated disc in his back. The Rangers demurred, allowing Rodriguez to go to Florida on a one-year contract. During that one year, and for the year after with Detroit, Rodriguez continued to perform at a high level, helping the 2003 Marlins win the World Series and pushing a moribund Tigers franchise back towards respectability.
Although Rodriguez declined rapidly after that second year, he remained a useful player relative to the class of catchers for most of the five-year contract he signed with the Tigers subsequent to the Marlins championship. Had the Rangers been able to re-sign him to a five-year contract after 2002, they would have been substantially better off than what they got instead -- one year of Einar Diaz and Todd Greene (aggregate: .247/.282/.379), followed by three years of Rod Barajas (.253/.294/.444), and onward through a malaise at the position that lasts to this day.
The Rangers' decision was not an easy one given Rodriguez's age, injury status, and the incredible catching workload he had been under since reaching the majors as a 19-year-old in 1991, but Reyes doesn't carry the same kind of risk. Though Mets owner Fred Wilpon tried to make what seems to be a decision not to retain Reyes in his now-infamous remarks in the most recent New Yorker, he should think twice about his shortstop's value. He would be by far the most attractive available shortstop in a period so devoid of good young players at the position that no matter who the Mets acquire in a potential Reyes trade, their value will be dramatically offset by the inevitable hard decline at the position.
Because the position demands speed, quick reflexes, and agility, shortstop has always been a job for the young -- until now. This year, the average age of shortstops throughout the majors is 28.8, the oldest the class as a whole has been at any time since 1950, and nearly two years older than the average age over that that 60-year period.
Derek Jeter, 37 and dying by inches on the biggest stage in sports, is emblematic of a declining class of middle infielders. The Giants opened the season trying to get by with Miguel Tejada, also 37. The man he replaced, Edgar Renteria, now with the Reds, is 34. The Red Sox began the year with a 35-year-old shortstop, Marco Scutaro. Jamey Carroll, who the Dodgers substituted for the injured Rafael Furcal, 33, is 37. Even seemingly younger shortstops who have lately received playing time in place of these decrepit graybeards, like Jed Lowrie and J.J. Hardy, have already celebrated their 27th birthdays, meaning they will soon pass the prime age for the position as baseball has defined it for at least half a century.
The Mets do have a promising player who is, at least, ostensibly a shortstop, an already-hulking teen named Wilmer Flores, but he is currently playing at High-A St. Lucie, meaning that he is at least two years from the majors. In any case, given his size, scouts believe he will outgrow short and be forced to third base or an outfield corner. The other internal option is Ruben Tejada, and while he's a nice young player, it's unlikely he will ever have the kind of impact that Reyes does.
Reyes, currently hitting .316/.366/.455 with a league-leading six triples, is already 28, but his speed, which manifests itself not only in those triples but in 17 stolen bases as well, should age well, as it should allow him to remain a viable defender for longer than the average player. His long-term work at the plate is more questionable given the way his patience has ebbed over time, but the capability is there.
Despite Wilpon's claim that Reyes has, "had everything wrong with him," he has had only one serious injury year in the last seven, that coming in 2009. Last year's thyroid imbalance was an unusual, off-field medical problem that seems unlikely to recur with proper medical care. Whoever acquires Reyes should find themselves in possession of a reasonably durable player.
The Mets need to rebuild, but Reyes can and should be part of that rebuilding. Without him, the path will be significantly longer and more difficult as the team struggles to find a replacement at a position where there are none to be had. It is almost impossible to trade a star player for an appreciable return because a contending team won't give up a star to get a star, and however highly prospects are rated, the odds are always against them becoming all-stars. That's why the star was valuable in the first place -- he's a rarity. In Reyes' case, that rarity is doubled by the current drought at his position.
On Thursday morning it was announced that the Wilpons had sold part of the Mets to hedge fund manager David Einhorn for $200 million. This seems unlikely to obviate the financial difficulties into which the club has been placed due to ownership being embroiled in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. Regardless, if the club is ever to regain its financial footing, whether for Wilpon or some other owner, it is important for it to maintain attendance and television ratings, something impossible without fielding a winning team. That task will be significantly easier with Reyes than with the nonentity that will surely have to replace him should he be traded or allowed to leave as a free agent.
This is not at all unusual; baseball has always gone through cycles in which a position suffers through a dearth of qualified applicants. There was even a moment in the American League of the late 1940s when shortstops outhit the first basemen -- somehow the circuit just couldn't find any solid mashers to stand at the gateway. Currently, the biggest void at any position is shortstop, and that makes the Mets handling of impending free agent Jose Reyes that much trickier because he is one of the game's rarest commodities, a star shortstop in his prime.
To get a sense of how losing Reyes would affect the Mets, we can look back to the catcher shortage of the early 21st century. After the 2002 season the Rangers had to make a decision as to whether to re-sign free agent Ivan Rodriguez after a year in which the then-30-year-old had hit .314/.353/.542 in a season shortened to 108 games by a herniated disc in his back. The Rangers demurred, allowing Rodriguez to go to Florida on a one-year contract. During that one year, and for the year after with Detroit, Rodriguez continued to perform at a high level, helping the 2003 Marlins win the World Series and pushing a moribund Tigers franchise back towards respectability.
Although Rodriguez declined rapidly after that second year, he remained a useful player relative to the class of catchers for most of the five-year contract he signed with the Tigers subsequent to the Marlins championship. Had the Rangers been able to re-sign him to a five-year contract after 2002, they would have been substantially better off than what they got instead -- one year of Einar Diaz and Todd Greene (aggregate: .247/.282/.379), followed by three years of Rod Barajas (.253/.294/.444), and onward through a malaise at the position that lasts to this day.
The Rangers' decision was not an easy one given Rodriguez's age, injury status, and the incredible catching workload he had been under since reaching the majors as a 19-year-old in 1991, but Reyes doesn't carry the same kind of risk. Though Mets owner Fred Wilpon tried to make what seems to be a decision not to retain Reyes in his now-infamous remarks in the most recent New Yorker, he should think twice about his shortstop's value. He would be by far the most attractive available shortstop in a period so devoid of good young players at the position that no matter who the Mets acquire in a potential Reyes trade, their value will be dramatically offset by the inevitable hard decline at the position.
Because the position demands speed, quick reflexes, and agility, shortstop has always been a job for the young -- until now. This year, the average age of shortstops throughout the majors is 28.8, the oldest the class as a whole has been at any time since 1950, and nearly two years older than the average age over that that 60-year period.
Derek Jeter, 37 and dying by inches on the biggest stage in sports, is emblematic of a declining class of middle infielders. The Giants opened the season trying to get by with Miguel Tejada, also 37. The man he replaced, Edgar Renteria, now with the Reds, is 34. The Red Sox began the year with a 35-year-old shortstop, Marco Scutaro. Jamey Carroll, who the Dodgers substituted for the injured Rafael Furcal, 33, is 37. Even seemingly younger shortstops who have lately received playing time in place of these decrepit graybeards, like Jed Lowrie and J.J. Hardy, have already celebrated their 27th birthdays, meaning they will soon pass the prime age for the position as baseball has defined it for at least half a century.
The Mets do have a promising player who is, at least, ostensibly a shortstop, an already-hulking teen named Wilmer Flores, but he is currently playing at High-A St. Lucie, meaning that he is at least two years from the majors. In any case, given his size, scouts believe he will outgrow short and be forced to third base or an outfield corner. The other internal option is Ruben Tejada, and while he's a nice young player, it's unlikely he will ever have the kind of impact that Reyes does.
Reyes, currently hitting .316/.366/.455 with a league-leading six triples, is already 28, but his speed, which manifests itself not only in those triples but in 17 stolen bases as well, should age well, as it should allow him to remain a viable defender for longer than the average player. His long-term work at the plate is more questionable given the way his patience has ebbed over time, but the capability is there.
Despite Wilpon's claim that Reyes has, "had everything wrong with him," he has had only one serious injury year in the last seven, that coming in 2009. Last year's thyroid imbalance was an unusual, off-field medical problem that seems unlikely to recur with proper medical care. Whoever acquires Reyes should find themselves in possession of a reasonably durable player.
The Mets need to rebuild, but Reyes can and should be part of that rebuilding. Without him, the path will be significantly longer and more difficult as the team struggles to find a replacement at a position where there are none to be had. It is almost impossible to trade a star player for an appreciable return because a contending team won't give up a star to get a star, and however highly prospects are rated, the odds are always against them becoming all-stars. That's why the star was valuable in the first place -- he's a rarity. In Reyes' case, that rarity is doubled by the current drought at his position.
On Thursday morning it was announced that the Wilpons had sold part of the Mets to hedge fund manager David Einhorn for $200 million. This seems unlikely to obviate the financial difficulties into which the club has been placed due to ownership being embroiled in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. Regardless, if the club is ever to regain its financial footing, whether for Wilpon or some other owner, it is important for it to maintain attendance and television ratings, something impossible without fielding a winning team. That task will be significantly easier with Reyes than with the nonentity that will surely have to replace him should he be traded or allowed to leave as a free agent.
- 28,100
- 9,232
- 28,100
- 9,232
- 5,299
- 273
The Marlins have that look in their eye baby.
- 5,299
- 273
The Marlins have that look in their eye baby.
I'd imagine there wouldn't be such an uproar to all of a sudden change the rules for a catcher if Cervelli or Thole or JP or Santana got hurt like this. If it isn't Buster or Bryce, this is a non issue. Santana missed months last season and I didn't hear a whisper of this *shrugs*
I'd imagine there wouldn't be such an uproar to all of a sudden change the rules for a catcher if Cervelli or Thole or JP or Santana got hurt like this. If it isn't Buster or Bryce, this is a non issue. Santana missed months last season and I didn't hear a whisper of this *shrugs*
- 28,100
- 9,232
As a baseball purist, I will be PISSED if this Buster Posey injury results in a rule change. I saw nothing wrong with the play. It was good hard baseball. It was just bad luck.
- 28,100
- 9,232
As a baseball purist, I will be PISSED if this Buster Posey injury results in a rule change. I saw nothing wrong with the play. It was good hard baseball. It was just bad luck.
- 8,065
- 118
As a former catcher, I would definitely be pissed if it resulted in a rule change. I always laughed when someone would try to truck me. I'm wearing all this protective gear and you're gonna try to run me over?
The only reason he got hurt was that his leg was at an odd angle.
- 8,065
- 118
As a former catcher, I would definitely be pissed if it resulted in a rule change. I always laughed when someone would try to truck me. I'm wearing all this protective gear and you're gonna try to run me over?
The only reason he got hurt was that his leg was at an odd angle.
- 28,043
- 10,466
Held onto Posey in one of my leagues until further updates are revealed. Picked up Soto in the mean time coming off the DL.
Big Z is doin' work on all my squads, I'll take the high WHIP for a 5-2 record.
Salas has been clutch for saves for me since Contreras went down in a couple of my other leagues.
Big Z is doin' work on all my squads, I'll take the high WHIP for a 5-2 record.
Salas has been clutch for saves for me since Contreras went down in a couple of my other leagues.
- Status
