As a baseball purist, I will be PISSED if this Buster Posey injury results in a rule change. I saw nothing wrong with the play. It was good hard baseball. It was just bad luck.
QFT. It's unfortunate what happened to Buster but it's part of the game. It's a big blow to the Giants but they will still win the West IMO. There pitching is too strong and I'm sure they'll be able to find a serviceable catcher.
As a baseball purist, I will be PISSED if this Buster Posey injury results in a rule change. I saw nothing wrong with the play. It was good hard baseball. It was just bad luck.
QFT. It's unfortunate what happened to Buster but it's part of the game. It's a big blow to the Giants but they will still win the West IMO. There pitching is too strong and I'm sure they'll be able to find a serviceable catcher.
Held onto Posey in one of my leagues until further updates are revealed. Picked up Soto in the mean time coming off the DL.
Big Z is doin' work on all my squads, I'll take the high WHIP for a 5-2 record.
Salas has been clutch for saves for me since Contreras went down in a couple of my other leagues.
I swear, if baseball overreacts and makes some damn rule change about plays at the plate.......
I'm really sorry Posey got hurt, but catchers get hurt. @#$% happens. Fisk, Bench, Pudge, Piazza, they all dealt with it over their careers. If a hitter gets plunked in the face you don't take away inside pitches, so they better leave this alone. It was a freak accident, move the hell along don't put catchers in pink shirts or some @#$% to protect them and take away from one of the most exciting plays in the game.
I swear, if baseball overreacts and makes some damn rule change about plays at the plate.......
I'm really sorry Posey got hurt, but catchers get hurt. @#$% happens. Fisk, Bench, Pudge, Piazza, they all dealt with it over their careers. If a hitter gets plunked in the face you don't take away inside pitches, so they better leave this alone. It was a freak accident, move the hell along don't put catchers in pink shirts or some @#$% to protect them and take away from one of the most exciting plays in the game.
Regardless of what you think about the play at home plate that fractured the leg of Giants catcher Buster Posey, there is no denying the fact that the injury will have a significant impact on how the National League playoff race shakes out.
While Posey wasn't having the same type of success at the plate this year as he did in his rookie campaign, he was still the most irreplaceable player on the defending champions roster. Before the injury, Posey had accumulated 87 percent of the plate appearances by San Francisco catchers this season, leaving reserve Eli Whiteside to play the role of a well-paid cheerleader. The Giants not only have to replace their starting catcher, but they have to replace a player who essentially never took a day off.
Filling those shoes will be no easy task, and depending on which path they choose (and how quickly Posey can heal), that play might just be the one that determines whether or not the Giants will be able to win the National League West. How much of a drop-off will the team suffer between Posey and his replacement?
Posey projected to be worth approximately 4.0 wins above replacement over the rest of the 2011 season assuming the Giants kept him in the lineup at roughly the same pace they had been so far. While it's unclear if the injury will sideline him for the rest of the season, for our purposes we'll work off the assumption that he's done for the year. You can adjust the differences downwards slightly if you believe he'll be able to return at the end of the summer.
Here's a look at a few different options and how their projected performances compare to Posey's.
[h3]Stay in house[/h3]
Despite being relegated to the role of Posey's caddy, Whiteside is actually not without his strengths. He possesses decent-for-a-catcher power, with 23 of his career 67 hits going for extra bases, and the 31-year-old has been worth 1.1 WAR in 315 career plate appearances. If given regular playing time over the next few months, Whiteside will likely produce some positive value, and would offset the loss of Posey to a small degree.
However, Whiteside is unlikely to be able to handle the same workload that Posey was covering, and he wouldn't be good enough to convince Bruce Bochy to write his name on the scorecard as frequently. As such, we have to allocate some of those remaining 450 plate appearances to journeyman minor leaguer Chris Stewart, who is likely to produce at below replacement level -- he was hitting just .226/.311/.280 in Triple-A when he got the call, after all.
The Whiteside/Stewart tandem would likely produce something like 1.0 WAR over the remainder of the season; that's not bad, but certainly not Posey-+!$.
Net loss: -3 wins
[h3]Make a trade[/h3]
While Ivan Rodriguez is probably the most available catcher on the trade market and still carries quite a bit of name value, there's little to suggest that Rodriguez can still help a team win baseball games at this point in his career. Now 39 years old, Rodriguez hasn't been a productive hitter for several years, and he's bottomed out in Washington with a .256 on base percentage so far in 2011. In fact, Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections actually suggest that he's a worse hitter than Whiteside at this point, and his once legendary defense is hardly much of an asset anymore.
While Rodriguez has carried heavy workloads before, his body isn't what it once was, and he would likely have to share time behind the plate with Whiteside. The upside of making a deal is that the Giants would be able to avoid giving significant at-bats to Chris Stewart, so acquiring Rodriguez would represent an upgrade to the team, but only so long as Rodriguez didn't get that much more playing time than the superior (and younger) Whiteside.
Net loss: -2.5 wins
[h3]Bring back Bengie[/h3] Bengie Molina, the former Giants backstop, "retired" this winter after failing to land an offer that made him want to come back for another go-around. However, it's possible that a reunion with the team that gave him a World Series ring despite beating him in October would interest the eldest of the famous catching Molinas. Bengie was pretty lousy last year as his power dried up at age 35, but he did hit 20 home runs in 2009 and was an above-average catcher as recently as 2008.
ZIPS projected a .293 wOBA for Molina in 2011, significantly better than the mark it expects from either Whiteside or Rodrigeuz, but we'd have to adjust that down to account for the fact that he skipped spring training and might not be in tip-top shape -- or at least whatever passes for tip-top shape when we're discussing Bengie Molina, anyway.
Still, a less-than-perfect Molina could still represent the best offensive option for the Giants, and he's already familiar with the pitchers on the staff. Molina has already expressed his enthusiasm for the idea, but it would be up to the Giants to decide on another go-around with their former backstop. If he'd be willing to share time with Whiteside, though, bringing back Bengie could be the option that keeps the Giants one step ahead of their opponents in the NL West. It's certainly the best of the three options discussed here.
Net loss: -2 wins
Diamondbacks & Posey.
Spoiler [+]
The Rockies lost their best pitcher this week, in Jorge De La Rosa, and then the Giants lost catcher Buster Posey. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks keep winning, keep gaining momentum.
Getty ImagesCollmenter's delivery emphasizes deception -- though he may not have realized it initially.
With their victory on Thursday night, they are within 1 1/2 games of the first place Giants, and keep in mind, Arizona has done this while grinding through the worst schedule in the National League in the first quarter of the season; twenty-seven of their first thirty-seven games were against teams that had records over .500 last year.
And Arizona keeps getting better, as they tinker with their roster. The bullpen ERA is about half of what it was last year, and the rotation has stabilized, with Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. And there is Josh Collmenter, who has a 1.19 ERA in part because he throws the ball like nobody else in the majors.
It wasn't until Collmenter was a senior in high school that anyone mentioned to him that his arm angle was a little unusual. A scout said last week that you could define arm angles thusly: "You have three-quarters. You have over-the-top. And you have Collmenter."
If you imagine the face on a clock, Roy Halladay releases the ball with his arm angle about 10:30 p.m. Other pitchers release it closer to 11:30 -- over the top. Collmenter is closer to 1 o'clock or 12:30, despite being a right-hander. This didn't happen by plan, or through advice. In a phone conversation on Thursday, Collmenter recalled that this was just the way he started throwing when he picked up a baseball as a kid.
And it's an incredible weapon for him now. "What works for him is that the hitters have a difficult time picking up the ball against him," said the scout. "There's nobody else like him in the majors, throwing that angle, so it's something they're not used to. It's not like they're facing four or five guys like this over the course of the season. They get one shot at it, maybe two, in a season, and it's a difficult adjustment, because he hides the ball well."
When you watch hitters face Collmenter, you'll notice that he generates a lot of foul balls to the opposite-field side -- a lot. "It's a little like watching Chris Young pitch, or Sid Fernandez," said the scout.
Collmenter recalls being told by a coach that because of his arm angle, the changeup would be a very effective pitch for him. "He said the hitters are going to have a tough time distinguishing between your fastball and changeup," said Collmenter.
Catchers have come back to the dugout in the past and report to Collmenter the grumblings of hitters, that they can't stand facing him, and this is reflected in the small sample of numbers for the right-hander so far in the big leagues:
Opposing hitters' average: .162
Slugging percentage: .267
OPS: .459
With runners in scoring position: 1-for-11 (.091)
Collmenter is scheduled to make his next start on Monday.
Elsewhere, Arizona's relievers are adjusting to their roles, writes Nick Piecoro.
Meanwhile: After the Rockies' loss, they designatedJose Lopez for assignment, as Patrick Saunders writes.
[h3]The Posey debate[/h3]
Posey's injury was the talk of the sport on Thursday. An NL executive, whose team could directly benefit from the catcher's absence in the San Francisco lineup, heard of Posey's situation shortly after it happened and was so bothered by the news that he called up a couple of friends in the industry to talk about it. Posey, he said to one of them, is really good for baseball, and to have him out for any length of time or to have his career altered would be terrible.
The big picture is what Posey's agent, Jeff Berry, was driving at with his comments and actions on Thursday; it's important for players like Posey to not be put in unnecessary jeopardy. The word "unnecessary" was the one chosen by Ray Fosse, in his reaction to the Posey play, when speaking to John Shea.
"Unnecessary," Fosse said of Scott Cousins' slide that flattened Posey. "I think he could've gotten to the plate without doing that. I just think if you give the runner part of the plate, and if the runner is going to do it correctly, he slides toward that part of the plate."
Fosse doesn't advocate rules changes to protect catchers. Bruce Bochy and Duane Kuiper did call for changes, because of how vulnerable catchers are, as mentioned within this Bruce Jenkins piece.
Here's Bruce Bochy's words on the matter, from his pre-game talk with fans:
"I think you could say, you know what, if there's a lane there, you've got to go for home plate. I know in high school and college, they have a rule there. But if there's no place to go, then, sure, you can run into the catcher.
"I don't know. I'm just saying we might need to consider something to protect these guys. Because they are getting bigger and faster and hitting these guys when they're not really prepared to get hit. It's a little different than football. It's not really built to be a contact sport, as much as it my look like it. You saw what happened here.
"There's been a lot of really nasty injuries with catchers. ... I just don't want to see somebody carried off when they get their neck snapped."
The most meaningless defense of the current rules regarding collision is this: That's the way it's always been; it's been that way for a century.
Well, a century ago, nobody wore helmets or protective cups; football players didn't have face masks and players could clothes-line each other with impunity. Heck, 40 years ago, I rode in the front seat of my mother's car without a seat belt. That doesn't mean it's a good thing.
The bottom line is that college baseball is played without those kind of collisions -- which, by the way, are not integral to the sport, happening just a few times each month for the teams -- and certainly Major League Baseball can do so, too. It really comes down to a financial decision for the sport: Does it make s sense for the teams to have their catchers and runners teed up, like crash-test dummies, at significant injury risk for the players?
Meanwhile, the Giants were not downplaying how much they'll miss Posey. The Giants were already struggling for runs, and on their first day without Posey, they were shut out 1-0. He left the hospital on crutches, as shown in the pictures that accompany Bruce Jenkins's piece.
And there is this from Bengie Molina: He tells Andrew Baggarly that he could come back, after some preparation time, but doesn't believe it will happen because of how his time with the Giants ended.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Heard this: While Gerrit Cole's struggles have scared off some teams and caused him to drop on some draft boards, the Pirates -- who have the first pick in the draft -- continue to value Cole; they continue to look at him as a possible choice for that top spot.
• The Mets are trying to sell a minority share to a hedge fund manager. It is interesting that this was announced before the deal is actually done; as Richard Sandomir writes, this gives Einhorn great leverage in working out the final details.
The most important question for the Mets is this: How will this affect their chain of command?
1.Carl Crawford is red-hot now, and the Red Sox are rolling, writes Peter Abraham. Alfredo Aceves spun another quality start. From ESPN Stats & Info: Over the past two weeks, the Boston Red Sox have been among the best teams in baseball, putting up an 11-2 record and gaining a share of the AL East lead (see the chart at right). And Carl Crawford became the third Sox left fielder to have four hits and two triples in a game, joining Carl Yastrzemski (April 16, 1967) and Ted Williams (April 29, 1940).
4. The White Sox rallied, as Mark Gonzales writes.
5.Anibal Sanchez was The Man for the Marlins. From ESPN Stats & Information, how Sanchez won:
A) He worked off the plate: Just 52 of his 111 pitches (46.8 pct) hit the strike zone, and the Giants chased 40.7 pct. of bad balls. Both of those are the second-best numbers for Sanchez this season, behind his April 10 loss to the Astros (who put all those bad balls in play).
B) Sanchez turned 26 bad balls into strikes (11 misses, 2 called, 6 foul, 7 in play). The 11 misses on bad balls are his most in at least three seasons, and he had only 16 swings and misses total on Thursday.
C) He was efficient: 18 plate appearances lasted three pitches or less. His average PA of 3.47 pitches was his lowest in 25 starts (to last July). Threw first-pitch strikes to 23 of 32 batters, also the best since last July. Had only four 3-ball counts the entire day, and all of those were full.
D) He went offspeed with two strikes: Threw just 12 fastballs out of 33 two-strike pitches (36.4 pct), well below his 47.0 pct. season rate prior to today. Seven of his eight strikeouts came on offspeed stuff (four changeups, three sliders).
http://[h3]Will the Tribe become buyers?[/h3]
11:18AM ET
[h5]Cleveland Indians [/h5]
It is Memorial Day Weekend, and that sizzling start by the Cleveland Indians looks less and less like a mirage. Not only has the Tribe (30-17) changed the landscape of the American League Central, but first-year GM Chris Antonetti will soon have a big decision to make.
Will the Indians become aggressive buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline?
Paul Hoynes poses that question in Friday's Plain Dealer, where team president Mark Shapiro says the Indians have the ability to add to an Opening Day payroll of just $49.1 million.
"There's been a demonstrated willingness to spend above projected revenues when we felt we had an opportunity to win," Shapiro says, "and there will be an ability and a willingness to acquire a player in July if we're in position to do it."
Hoynes adds a caveat that the Indians will not dig too deeply into their minor-league system to make a trade work. It will be intriguing to see if the Tribe has the wherewithal to land a starting pitcher, especially since they will be facing competition from deep-pocketed teams such as the Yankees and Red Sox that have the same need.
Mets first baseman Ike Davis eyed a return from the disabled list on Thursday, the first day he was eligible, but that was a bit too optimistic.
MLB.com's Anthony DiComo reports Davis, who orginally landed on the DL with a sprained ankle, has not progressed at all in his rehab, and the Mets still have no clear timetable for his return. Daniel Murphy has been playing first base in the absence of Davis, who is hitting .302. - Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Branyan signing[/h3]
10:37AM ET
Russell Branyan was cast aside by the Arizona Diamondbacks because of a logjam at first base. His signing by the Angels on Thursday makes the position a little crowded in Anaheim as well.
The immediate impact will be a platoon at first base between Branyan and rookie Mark Trumbo, who needs to hit right-handers more consistently. Trumbo ended up with more playing time than expected once Kendrys Morales was lost for the season, and might be better suited for a more limited role, at least for now.
Trumbo is hitting .278 with three homers and seven RBIs against lefties and .229 with five homers and 17 RBIs against right-handers.
Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times adds that the Branyan signing could cut into the playing time of center fielder Peter Bourjos once Howard Kendrick returns from the disabled list. Kendrick has made periodic starts at first base this season, but will now get more time in second base or the outfield.
Adam Dunn already has been used in the third, fourth and fifth spots in the White Sox batting order. Maybe the seventh slot will end up as a lucky perch for the struggling designated hitter.
After striking out four times Thursday to increase his American League-leading total to 65, Dunn will drop to seventh in the order Friday night in Toronto.
Manager Ozzie Guillen insists this is not a demotion, but only a way to get Dunn, who is hitting .182 with five homers, a chance to relax at the plate. A.J. Pierzynski will bat fifth, followed by Alex Rios and Dunn.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Figgins dropping to No. 9?[/h3]
9:51AM ET
UPDATE: Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes Friday that Figgins could be dropped to No. 9 in the order this weekend against the Yankees with Brendan Ryan the best candidate to take over in the No. 2 hole.
--
The Seattle Mariners have won six straight games and sit just 1 1/2 games back of first place Texas in the American League West. The M's still lack offense and are being carried by their starting rotation, and one of the black holes at the plate is third base Chone Figgins.
Figgins is hitting .211 on the season and just .208 in May, the worst among current Mariners regulars. But as Geoff Baker writes Tuesday, the club's options at third and with the veteran are limited.
Figgins is untradeable due to his poor play and hefty contract, and the organization is without a clear replacement, and benching a player owed $27 million through 2013 just isn't happening. As Baker suggests, however, moving Figgins from the No. 2 spot in the lineup could help the offense a little bit, and using Adam Kennedy at third some once prospect Dustin Ackley arrives -- likely in June -- could give the offense a boost, too.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Holliday questionable vs. Rockies [/h3]
9:37AM ET
While the Cardinals insist that Matt Holliday is unlikely to land on the disabled list, it is uncertain if the left fielder will be available for a weekend series in Colorado, reports Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch.
Holliday sat out a three-game series in San Diego with a strained left quadriceps, a condition he aggravated while serving as a DH last weekend in Kansas City.
The Cardinals used Lance Berkman in left field in San Diego, but manager Tony La Russa might be included to use Allen Craig or Jon Jay there in Colorado because Coors Field has more expansive left field dimensions.
While the bat of Albert Pujols may be heating, a prolonged absence by Holliday would be damaging. The Cards scored 25 runs in the 10 games that Holliday has missed this season due to appendicitis and his recent injury.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cubs downplay Big-Z's neck stiffness[/h3]
9:26AM ET
The Chicago Cubs can ill-afford an injury to another starting pitcher, so some red flags were raised when Carlos Zambrano complained of neck stiffness after Thursday's win over the Mets and paid a visit to the team orthopedic specialist.
GM Jim Hendry downplayed the injury Thursday night. "[Zambrano is] nothing to worry about," Hendry told ESPNChicago.com. "Really nothing at all would endanger his next start."
Zambrano looked perfectly healthy earlier Thursday when he pitched six strong innings and collected three hits. Matt Garza was put on the DL on Monday with a sore elbow, joining Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Molina hoping for a call?[/h3]
9:05AM ET
[h5]San Francisco Giants [/h5]
Once Buster Posey went down with a significant injury Wednesday night, the speculation immediately turned to Bengie Molina, who tutored Posey behind the plate early last season before being traded to Texas.
Molina told Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News he would be willing to return to the bay, but doesn't think the Giants will ask.
"Can I do it? Heck yeah, I can. That's what I've been doing my whole life. You tell me to put a uni on, I'll do it and be fine," Molina said. "But I don't know if that's the right idea. It takes time to get your body to go from workouts to being ready to catch and hit."
Molina would likely need about two weeks in the minors to get into game shape, and the Giants likely won't wait that long.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Hamstring issues for Ramirez[/h3]
8:47AM ET
Aramis Ramirez was out of the lineup Thursday, and it was more than just a routine day off for the Chicago Cubs third baseman. Ramirez told the Chicagi Sun-Times that he's been battling a tight left hamstring since early in the last homestand.
Blake DeWitt started at third base Thursday against the Mets at chilly Wrigley Field. Ramirez is hitting .333 in his last 12 games, but hasn't hit a homer since April 6.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Position change for Posey?[/h3]
8:22AM ET
The San Francisco Giants are holding out hope that Buster Posey may not be lost for the season following a home plate collision Wednesday night.
Posey has a broken fibula and severely strained ligaments in his left ankle and will miss at least six to eight weeks. Giants head trainer Dave Groeschner told the San Francisco Chronicle. Posey will need surgery on his ankle, Groeschner said, and it is possible a screw could be inserted.
Where will Posey play when he returns? Given his potent bat, the calls for Posey to move out from behind the plate will only escalate, writes Gwen Knapp of the Chronicle.
Giants manager Bruce Bochy has no intention with relocating Posey to first base, knowing Posey's value to the team would take a notable hit if he is not handling a pitching staff. But Bochy could be tempted to use Posey at first base later in the season and move him back behind the plate in 2012. Aubrey Huff, who has plenty of outfield experience, might be moved off first base on an interim basis.
It is the type of situation the Minnesota Twins face regarding the injured Joe Mauer. The Twins appear reluctant to have Mauer come off the disabled list merely to be a designated hitter.
UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal tweeted Thursday that the Giants already have asked the Nationals about Rodriguez.
--
In the wake of the injury to Buster Posey, the San Francisco Giants are likely to hit the market for catching. Eli Whiteside will be joined by Chris Stewart in the meantime, but our own Jim Bowden has a suggestion via Twitter: "Nats should offer Pudge to Giants and give at-bats to their young catchers."
This makes so much sense that it probably has no chance of happening. Jesus Flores and Wilson Ramos are the immediate future behind the plate for the Nationals with Derek Norris on the way. Pudge could step in with Whiteside in San Francisco and solidify the catching position.
The only thing is, the Giants probably wouldn't be the only club interested in Rodriguez, despite his struggles at the plate this season.
A rash of injuries has forced the Mets to look early and often to their Triple-A farm club in Western New York. The team from Queens is doing its best Bob Marley impersonation, and it may need to find another Buffalo Soldier after righthander R.A. Dickey went down in Thursday's start at Wrigley Field.
Dickey, suffering from a sore right heel and foot after stumbling while attempting to cover first base during the Mets' 9-3 loss to the Cubs. The knuckleballer is scheduled to be examined in New York Friday, and a trip to the disabled list isn't out of the question.
With the pitching staff already thin, the Mets could use Pat Misch as an emergency starter. The Mets also could chose from three pitchers now with the Bisons: Chris Schwinden, Josh Stinson or .J. Carrasco.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]When will Ackley get the call?[/h3]
7:14AM ET
[h5]Seattle Mariners [/h5]
It is a question of when and not if the Mariners promote second base phenom Dustin Ackley.
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com said earlier this week that the promotion "should happen soon," with the Mariners replacing him at Triple-A with his former teammate at North Carolina, Kyle Seager.
Until now, the Mariners, who could use an offensive boost, have been splitting the second base duties between Jack Wilson and Adam Kennedy.
Seager, currently at Double-A Jackson, could end up being stuck behind Ackley in the Seattle system. In his SweetSpot blog, ESPN.com's David Schoenfield suggests Seager would fit nicely in a trade that would bring Carlos Beltran to Seattle.
ESPN.com's Jason Gray adds his take on Ackley's fantasy impact:
"Ackley is getting a more consistent load and hitting with a firmer front side than he had last year, continuing to progress on the improvements he showed late last season and in the Arizona Fall League. His approach at the plate remains impressive -- he has drawn more walks than strikeouts in his pro career -- and that could help him adjust to the big leagues fairly quickly. When he arrives, he will be the Mariners' starting second baseman, and batting average and a little speed will be what he brings to the table for now. Whether or not he's worth adding in shallower mixed leagues depends on your middle-infield depth, but he's definitely a strong pickup consideration in 12-owner (and deeper) formats."
http://[h3]Rizzo staying in Triple-A[/h3]
7:07AM ET
[h5]San Diego Padres [/h5]
Even if a position may be there for the taking, Padres general manager Jed Hoyer says the timing isn't right to promote first base prospect Anthony Rizzo.
With Will Venable optioned to Triple-A Tucson this week, Bill Center of the Union Tribune says the Padres could move Brad Hawpe back to his former position of right field and insert Rizzo at first. "Good logic, but not yet," Hoyer said.
Rizzo, acquired from Boston in the megadeal for Adrian Gonzalez, has missed playing time over the past week while nursing a bruised left thumb. It is also felt that Rizzo, who is hitting .366 with 14 homers and 56 RBI for Tucson, still needs some more minor league seasoning.
"When I've seen him play this season, what has impressed me the most, besides his consistently hitting the ball with the barrel of his bat, is his ability to generate a lot of power with an easy swing, even if it does get a tad long at times. I think he can mash big league righties now, though lefties could give him some trouble, especially on the inner half. When he gets the call, it likely will be to play regularly, with him getting most of the starts at first base. That said, he might sit against southpaws in the early going. Petco Park won't do his power any favors, but he could hit for both average and power, enough to make him useful in deeper mixed leagues and NL-only formats."
UPDATE: Manager Terry Collins suggested Thursday that the Mets will send Martinez to Triple-A Buffalo. Andy Martino of the Daily News says the need for the 22-year-old Martinez to play regularly will be the deciding factor.
--
Barring an unforeseen setback, center fielder Pagan will rejoin the Mets in time for Friday's game against the Phillies. Pagan, rehabbing from a strained left oblique, is expected to play for Triple-A Buffalo on Thursday.
Regardless of what you think about the play at home plate that fractured the leg of Giants catcher Buster Posey, there is no denying the fact that the injury will have a significant impact on how the National League playoff race shakes out.
While Posey wasn't having the same type of success at the plate this year as he did in his rookie campaign, he was still the most irreplaceable player on the defending champions roster. Before the injury, Posey had accumulated 87 percent of the plate appearances by San Francisco catchers this season, leaving reserve Eli Whiteside to play the role of a well-paid cheerleader. The Giants not only have to replace their starting catcher, but they have to replace a player who essentially never took a day off.
Filling those shoes will be no easy task, and depending on which path they choose (and how quickly Posey can heal), that play might just be the one that determines whether or not the Giants will be able to win the National League West. How much of a drop-off will the team suffer between Posey and his replacement?
Posey projected to be worth approximately 4.0 wins above replacement over the rest of the 2011 season assuming the Giants kept him in the lineup at roughly the same pace they had been so far. While it's unclear if the injury will sideline him for the rest of the season, for our purposes we'll work off the assumption that he's done for the year. You can adjust the differences downwards slightly if you believe he'll be able to return at the end of the summer.
Here's a look at a few different options and how their projected performances compare to Posey's.
[h3]Stay in house[/h3]
Despite being relegated to the role of Posey's caddy, Whiteside is actually not without his strengths. He possesses decent-for-a-catcher power, with 23 of his career 67 hits going for extra bases, and the 31-year-old has been worth 1.1 WAR in 315 career plate appearances. If given regular playing time over the next few months, Whiteside will likely produce some positive value, and would offset the loss of Posey to a small degree.
However, Whiteside is unlikely to be able to handle the same workload that Posey was covering, and he wouldn't be good enough to convince Bruce Bochy to write his name on the scorecard as frequently. As such, we have to allocate some of those remaining 450 plate appearances to journeyman minor leaguer Chris Stewart, who is likely to produce at below replacement level -- he was hitting just .226/.311/.280 in Triple-A when he got the call, after all.
The Whiteside/Stewart tandem would likely produce something like 1.0 WAR over the remainder of the season; that's not bad, but certainly not Posey-+!$.
Net loss: -3 wins
[h3]Make a trade[/h3]
While Ivan Rodriguez is probably the most available catcher on the trade market and still carries quite a bit of name value, there's little to suggest that Rodriguez can still help a team win baseball games at this point in his career. Now 39 years old, Rodriguez hasn't been a productive hitter for several years, and he's bottomed out in Washington with a .256 on base percentage so far in 2011. In fact, Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections actually suggest that he's a worse hitter than Whiteside at this point, and his once legendary defense is hardly much of an asset anymore.
While Rodriguez has carried heavy workloads before, his body isn't what it once was, and he would likely have to share time behind the plate with Whiteside. The upside of making a deal is that the Giants would be able to avoid giving significant at-bats to Chris Stewart, so acquiring Rodriguez would represent an upgrade to the team, but only so long as Rodriguez didn't get that much more playing time than the superior (and younger) Whiteside.
Net loss: -2.5 wins
[h3]Bring back Bengie[/h3] Bengie Molina, the former Giants backstop, "retired" this winter after failing to land an offer that made him want to come back for another go-around. However, it's possible that a reunion with the team that gave him a World Series ring despite beating him in October would interest the eldest of the famous catching Molinas. Bengie was pretty lousy last year as his power dried up at age 35, but he did hit 20 home runs in 2009 and was an above-average catcher as recently as 2008.
ZIPS projected a .293 wOBA for Molina in 2011, significantly better than the mark it expects from either Whiteside or Rodrigeuz, but we'd have to adjust that down to account for the fact that he skipped spring training and might not be in tip-top shape -- or at least whatever passes for tip-top shape when we're discussing Bengie Molina, anyway.
Still, a less-than-perfect Molina could still represent the best offensive option for the Giants, and he's already familiar with the pitchers on the staff. Molina has already expressed his enthusiasm for the idea, but it would be up to the Giants to decide on another go-around with their former backstop. If he'd be willing to share time with Whiteside, though, bringing back Bengie could be the option that keeps the Giants one step ahead of their opponents in the NL West. It's certainly the best of the three options discussed here.
Net loss: -2 wins
Diamondbacks & Posey.
Spoiler [+]
The Rockies lost their best pitcher this week, in Jorge De La Rosa, and then the Giants lost catcher Buster Posey. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks keep winning, keep gaining momentum.
Getty ImagesCollmenter's delivery emphasizes deception -- though he may not have realized it initially.
With their victory on Thursday night, they are within 1 1/2 games of the first place Giants, and keep in mind, Arizona has done this while grinding through the worst schedule in the National League in the first quarter of the season; twenty-seven of their first thirty-seven games were against teams that had records over .500 last year.
And Arizona keeps getting better, as they tinker with their roster. The bullpen ERA is about half of what it was last year, and the rotation has stabilized, with Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. And there is Josh Collmenter, who has a 1.19 ERA in part because he throws the ball like nobody else in the majors.
It wasn't until Collmenter was a senior in high school that anyone mentioned to him that his arm angle was a little unusual. A scout said last week that you could define arm angles thusly: "You have three-quarters. You have over-the-top. And you have Collmenter."
If you imagine the face on a clock, Roy Halladay releases the ball with his arm angle about 10:30 p.m. Other pitchers release it closer to 11:30 -- over the top. Collmenter is closer to 1 o'clock or 12:30, despite being a right-hander. This didn't happen by plan, or through advice. In a phone conversation on Thursday, Collmenter recalled that this was just the way he started throwing when he picked up a baseball as a kid.
And it's an incredible weapon for him now. "What works for him is that the hitters have a difficult time picking up the ball against him," said the scout. "There's nobody else like him in the majors, throwing that angle, so it's something they're not used to. It's not like they're facing four or five guys like this over the course of the season. They get one shot at it, maybe two, in a season, and it's a difficult adjustment, because he hides the ball well."
When you watch hitters face Collmenter, you'll notice that he generates a lot of foul balls to the opposite-field side -- a lot. "It's a little like watching Chris Young pitch, or Sid Fernandez," said the scout.
Collmenter recalls being told by a coach that because of his arm angle, the changeup would be a very effective pitch for him. "He said the hitters are going to have a tough time distinguishing between your fastball and changeup," said Collmenter.
Catchers have come back to the dugout in the past and report to Collmenter the grumblings of hitters, that they can't stand facing him, and this is reflected in the small sample of numbers for the right-hander so far in the big leagues:
Opposing hitters' average: .162
Slugging percentage: .267
OPS: .459
With runners in scoring position: 1-for-11 (.091)
Collmenter is scheduled to make his next start on Monday.
Elsewhere, Arizona's relievers are adjusting to their roles, writes Nick Piecoro.
Meanwhile: After the Rockies' loss, they designatedJose Lopez for assignment, as Patrick Saunders writes.
[h3]The Posey debate[/h3]
Posey's injury was the talk of the sport on Thursday. An NL executive, whose team could directly benefit from the catcher's absence in the San Francisco lineup, heard of Posey's situation shortly after it happened and was so bothered by the news that he called up a couple of friends in the industry to talk about it. Posey, he said to one of them, is really good for baseball, and to have him out for any length of time or to have his career altered would be terrible.
The big picture is what Posey's agent, Jeff Berry, was driving at with his comments and actions on Thursday; it's important for players like Posey to not be put in unnecessary jeopardy. The word "unnecessary" was the one chosen by Ray Fosse, in his reaction to the Posey play, when speaking to John Shea.
"Unnecessary," Fosse said of Scott Cousins' slide that flattened Posey. "I think he could've gotten to the plate without doing that. I just think if you give the runner part of the plate, and if the runner is going to do it correctly, he slides toward that part of the plate."
Fosse doesn't advocate rules changes to protect catchers. Bruce Bochy and Duane Kuiper did call for changes, because of how vulnerable catchers are, as mentioned within this Bruce Jenkins piece.
Here's Bruce Bochy's words on the matter, from his pre-game talk with fans:
"I think you could say, you know what, if there's a lane there, you've got to go for home plate. I know in high school and college, they have a rule there. But if there's no place to go, then, sure, you can run into the catcher.
"I don't know. I'm just saying we might need to consider something to protect these guys. Because they are getting bigger and faster and hitting these guys when they're not really prepared to get hit. It's a little different than football. It's not really built to be a contact sport, as much as it my look like it. You saw what happened here.
"There's been a lot of really nasty injuries with catchers. ... I just don't want to see somebody carried off when they get their neck snapped."
The most meaningless defense of the current rules regarding collision is this: That's the way it's always been; it's been that way for a century.
Well, a century ago, nobody wore helmets or protective cups; football players didn't have face masks and players could clothes-line each other with impunity. Heck, 40 years ago, I rode in the front seat of my mother's car without a seat belt. That doesn't mean it's a good thing.
The bottom line is that college baseball is played without those kind of collisions -- which, by the way, are not integral to the sport, happening just a few times each month for the teams -- and certainly Major League Baseball can do so, too. It really comes down to a financial decision for the sport: Does it make s sense for the teams to have their catchers and runners teed up, like crash-test dummies, at significant injury risk for the players?
Meanwhile, the Giants were not downplaying how much they'll miss Posey. The Giants were already struggling for runs, and on their first day without Posey, they were shut out 1-0. He left the hospital on crutches, as shown in the pictures that accompany Bruce Jenkins's piece.
And there is this from Bengie Molina: He tells Andrew Baggarly that he could come back, after some preparation time, but doesn't believe it will happen because of how his time with the Giants ended.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Heard this: While Gerrit Cole's struggles have scared off some teams and caused him to drop on some draft boards, the Pirates -- who have the first pick in the draft -- continue to value Cole; they continue to look at him as a possible choice for that top spot.
• The Mets are trying to sell a minority share to a hedge fund manager. It is interesting that this was announced before the deal is actually done; as Richard Sandomir writes, this gives Einhorn great leverage in working out the final details.
The most important question for the Mets is this: How will this affect their chain of command?
1.Carl Crawford is red-hot now, and the Red Sox are rolling, writes Peter Abraham. Alfredo Aceves spun another quality start. From ESPN Stats & Info: Over the past two weeks, the Boston Red Sox have been among the best teams in baseball, putting up an 11-2 record and gaining a share of the AL East lead (see the chart at right). And Carl Crawford became the third Sox left fielder to have four hits and two triples in a game, joining Carl Yastrzemski (April 16, 1967) and Ted Williams (April 29, 1940).
4. The White Sox rallied, as Mark Gonzales writes.
5.Anibal Sanchez was The Man for the Marlins. From ESPN Stats & Information, how Sanchez won:
A) He worked off the plate: Just 52 of his 111 pitches (46.8 pct) hit the strike zone, and the Giants chased 40.7 pct. of bad balls. Both of those are the second-best numbers for Sanchez this season, behind his April 10 loss to the Astros (who put all those bad balls in play).
B) Sanchez turned 26 bad balls into strikes (11 misses, 2 called, 6 foul, 7 in play). The 11 misses on bad balls are his most in at least three seasons, and he had only 16 swings and misses total on Thursday.
C) He was efficient: 18 plate appearances lasted three pitches or less. His average PA of 3.47 pitches was his lowest in 25 starts (to last July). Threw first-pitch strikes to 23 of 32 batters, also the best since last July. Had only four 3-ball counts the entire day, and all of those were full.
D) He went offspeed with two strikes: Threw just 12 fastballs out of 33 two-strike pitches (36.4 pct), well below his 47.0 pct. season rate prior to today. Seven of his eight strikeouts came on offspeed stuff (four changeups, three sliders).
http://[h3]Will the Tribe become buyers?[/h3]
11:18AM ET
[h5]Cleveland Indians [/h5]
It is Memorial Day Weekend, and that sizzling start by the Cleveland Indians looks less and less like a mirage. Not only has the Tribe (30-17) changed the landscape of the American League Central, but first-year GM Chris Antonetti will soon have a big decision to make.
Will the Indians become aggressive buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline?
Paul Hoynes poses that question in Friday's Plain Dealer, where team president Mark Shapiro says the Indians have the ability to add to an Opening Day payroll of just $49.1 million.
"There's been a demonstrated willingness to spend above projected revenues when we felt we had an opportunity to win," Shapiro says, "and there will be an ability and a willingness to acquire a player in July if we're in position to do it."
Hoynes adds a caveat that the Indians will not dig too deeply into their minor-league system to make a trade work. It will be intriguing to see if the Tribe has the wherewithal to land a starting pitcher, especially since they will be facing competition from deep-pocketed teams such as the Yankees and Red Sox that have the same need.
Mets first baseman Ike Davis eyed a return from the disabled list on Thursday, the first day he was eligible, but that was a bit too optimistic.
MLB.com's Anthony DiComo reports Davis, who orginally landed on the DL with a sprained ankle, has not progressed at all in his rehab, and the Mets still have no clear timetable for his return. Daniel Murphy has been playing first base in the absence of Davis, who is hitting .302. - Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Branyan signing[/h3]
10:37AM ET
Russell Branyan was cast aside by the Arizona Diamondbacks because of a logjam at first base. His signing by the Angels on Thursday makes the position a little crowded in Anaheim as well.
The immediate impact will be a platoon at first base between Branyan and rookie Mark Trumbo, who needs to hit right-handers more consistently. Trumbo ended up with more playing time than expected once Kendrys Morales was lost for the season, and might be better suited for a more limited role, at least for now.
Trumbo is hitting .278 with three homers and seven RBIs against lefties and .229 with five homers and 17 RBIs against right-handers.
Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times adds that the Branyan signing could cut into the playing time of center fielder Peter Bourjos once Howard Kendrick returns from the disabled list. Kendrick has made periodic starts at first base this season, but will now get more time in second base or the outfield.
Adam Dunn already has been used in the third, fourth and fifth spots in the White Sox batting order. Maybe the seventh slot will end up as a lucky perch for the struggling designated hitter.
After striking out four times Thursday to increase his American League-leading total to 65, Dunn will drop to seventh in the order Friday night in Toronto.
Manager Ozzie Guillen insists this is not a demotion, but only a way to get Dunn, who is hitting .182 with five homers, a chance to relax at the plate. A.J. Pierzynski will bat fifth, followed by Alex Rios and Dunn.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Figgins dropping to No. 9?[/h3]
9:51AM ET
UPDATE: Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes Friday that Figgins could be dropped to No. 9 in the order this weekend against the Yankees with Brendan Ryan the best candidate to take over in the No. 2 hole.
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The Seattle Mariners have won six straight games and sit just 1 1/2 games back of first place Texas in the American League West. The M's still lack offense and are being carried by their starting rotation, and one of the black holes at the plate is third base Chone Figgins.
Figgins is hitting .211 on the season and just .208 in May, the worst among current Mariners regulars. But as Geoff Baker writes Tuesday, the club's options at third and with the veteran are limited.
Figgins is untradeable due to his poor play and hefty contract, and the organization is without a clear replacement, and benching a player owed $27 million through 2013 just isn't happening. As Baker suggests, however, moving Figgins from the No. 2 spot in the lineup could help the offense a little bit, and using Adam Kennedy at third some once prospect Dustin Ackley arrives -- likely in June -- could give the offense a boost, too.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Holliday questionable vs. Rockies [/h3]
9:37AM ET
While the Cardinals insist that Matt Holliday is unlikely to land on the disabled list, it is uncertain if the left fielder will be available for a weekend series in Colorado, reports Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch.
Holliday sat out a three-game series in San Diego with a strained left quadriceps, a condition he aggravated while serving as a DH last weekend in Kansas City.
The Cardinals used Lance Berkman in left field in San Diego, but manager Tony La Russa might be included to use Allen Craig or Jon Jay there in Colorado because Coors Field has more expansive left field dimensions.
While the bat of Albert Pujols may be heating, a prolonged absence by Holliday would be damaging. The Cards scored 25 runs in the 10 games that Holliday has missed this season due to appendicitis and his recent injury.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cubs downplay Big-Z's neck stiffness[/h3]
9:26AM ET
The Chicago Cubs can ill-afford an injury to another starting pitcher, so some red flags were raised when Carlos Zambrano complained of neck stiffness after Thursday's win over the Mets and paid a visit to the team orthopedic specialist.
GM Jim Hendry downplayed the injury Thursday night. "[Zambrano is] nothing to worry about," Hendry told ESPNChicago.com. "Really nothing at all would endanger his next start."
Zambrano looked perfectly healthy earlier Thursday when he pitched six strong innings and collected three hits. Matt Garza was put on the DL on Monday with a sore elbow, joining Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Molina hoping for a call?[/h3]
9:05AM ET
[h5]San Francisco Giants [/h5]
Once Buster Posey went down with a significant injury Wednesday night, the speculation immediately turned to Bengie Molina, who tutored Posey behind the plate early last season before being traded to Texas.
Molina told Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News he would be willing to return to the bay, but doesn't think the Giants will ask.
"Can I do it? Heck yeah, I can. That's what I've been doing my whole life. You tell me to put a uni on, I'll do it and be fine," Molina said. "But I don't know if that's the right idea. It takes time to get your body to go from workouts to being ready to catch and hit."
Molina would likely need about two weeks in the minors to get into game shape, and the Giants likely won't wait that long.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Hamstring issues for Ramirez[/h3]
8:47AM ET
Aramis Ramirez was out of the lineup Thursday, and it was more than just a routine day off for the Chicago Cubs third baseman. Ramirez told the Chicagi Sun-Times that he's been battling a tight left hamstring since early in the last homestand.
Blake DeWitt started at third base Thursday against the Mets at chilly Wrigley Field. Ramirez is hitting .333 in his last 12 games, but hasn't hit a homer since April 6.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Position change for Posey?[/h3]
8:22AM ET
The San Francisco Giants are holding out hope that Buster Posey may not be lost for the season following a home plate collision Wednesday night.
Posey has a broken fibula and severely strained ligaments in his left ankle and will miss at least six to eight weeks. Giants head trainer Dave Groeschner told the San Francisco Chronicle. Posey will need surgery on his ankle, Groeschner said, and it is possible a screw could be inserted.
Where will Posey play when he returns? Given his potent bat, the calls for Posey to move out from behind the plate will only escalate, writes Gwen Knapp of the Chronicle.
Giants manager Bruce Bochy has no intention with relocating Posey to first base, knowing Posey's value to the team would take a notable hit if he is not handling a pitching staff. But Bochy could be tempted to use Posey at first base later in the season and move him back behind the plate in 2012. Aubrey Huff, who has plenty of outfield experience, might be moved off first base on an interim basis.
It is the type of situation the Minnesota Twins face regarding the injured Joe Mauer. The Twins appear reluctant to have Mauer come off the disabled list merely to be a designated hitter.
UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal tweeted Thursday that the Giants already have asked the Nationals about Rodriguez.
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In the wake of the injury to Buster Posey, the San Francisco Giants are likely to hit the market for catching. Eli Whiteside will be joined by Chris Stewart in the meantime, but our own Jim Bowden has a suggestion via Twitter: "Nats should offer Pudge to Giants and give at-bats to their young catchers."
This makes so much sense that it probably has no chance of happening. Jesus Flores and Wilson Ramos are the immediate future behind the plate for the Nationals with Derek Norris on the way. Pudge could step in with Whiteside in San Francisco and solidify the catching position.
The only thing is, the Giants probably wouldn't be the only club interested in Rodriguez, despite his struggles at the plate this season.
A rash of injuries has forced the Mets to look early and often to their Triple-A farm club in Western New York. The team from Queens is doing its best Bob Marley impersonation, and it may need to find another Buffalo Soldier after righthander R.A. Dickey went down in Thursday's start at Wrigley Field.
Dickey, suffering from a sore right heel and foot after stumbling while attempting to cover first base during the Mets' 9-3 loss to the Cubs. The knuckleballer is scheduled to be examined in New York Friday, and a trip to the disabled list isn't out of the question.
With the pitching staff already thin, the Mets could use Pat Misch as an emergency starter. The Mets also could chose from three pitchers now with the Bisons: Chris Schwinden, Josh Stinson or .J. Carrasco.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]When will Ackley get the call?[/h3]
7:14AM ET
[h5]Seattle Mariners [/h5]
It is a question of when and not if the Mariners promote second base phenom Dustin Ackley.
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com said earlier this week that the promotion "should happen soon," with the Mariners replacing him at Triple-A with his former teammate at North Carolina, Kyle Seager.
Until now, the Mariners, who could use an offensive boost, have been splitting the second base duties between Jack Wilson and Adam Kennedy.
Seager, currently at Double-A Jackson, could end up being stuck behind Ackley in the Seattle system. In his SweetSpot blog, ESPN.com's David Schoenfield suggests Seager would fit nicely in a trade that would bring Carlos Beltran to Seattle.
ESPN.com's Jason Gray adds his take on Ackley's fantasy impact:
"Ackley is getting a more consistent load and hitting with a firmer front side than he had last year, continuing to progress on the improvements he showed late last season and in the Arizona Fall League. His approach at the plate remains impressive -- he has drawn more walks than strikeouts in his pro career -- and that could help him adjust to the big leagues fairly quickly. When he arrives, he will be the Mariners' starting second baseman, and batting average and a little speed will be what he brings to the table for now. Whether or not he's worth adding in shallower mixed leagues depends on your middle-infield depth, but he's definitely a strong pickup consideration in 12-owner (and deeper) formats."
http://[h3]Rizzo staying in Triple-A[/h3]
7:07AM ET
[h5]San Diego Padres [/h5]
Even if a position may be there for the taking, Padres general manager Jed Hoyer says the timing isn't right to promote first base prospect Anthony Rizzo.
With Will Venable optioned to Triple-A Tucson this week, Bill Center of the Union Tribune says the Padres could move Brad Hawpe back to his former position of right field and insert Rizzo at first. "Good logic, but not yet," Hoyer said.
Rizzo, acquired from Boston in the megadeal for Adrian Gonzalez, has missed playing time over the past week while nursing a bruised left thumb. It is also felt that Rizzo, who is hitting .366 with 14 homers and 56 RBI for Tucson, still needs some more minor league seasoning.
"When I've seen him play this season, what has impressed me the most, besides his consistently hitting the ball with the barrel of his bat, is his ability to generate a lot of power with an easy swing, even if it does get a tad long at times. I think he can mash big league righties now, though lefties could give him some trouble, especially on the inner half. When he gets the call, it likely will be to play regularly, with him getting most of the starts at first base. That said, he might sit against southpaws in the early going. Petco Park won't do his power any favors, but he could hit for both average and power, enough to make him useful in deeper mixed leagues and NL-only formats."
UPDATE: Manager Terry Collins suggested Thursday that the Mets will send Martinez to Triple-A Buffalo. Andy Martino of the Daily News says the need for the 22-year-old Martinez to play regularly will be the deciding factor.
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Barring an unforeseen setback, center fielder Pagan will rejoin the Mets in time for Friday's game against the Phillies. Pagan, rehabbing from a strained left oblique, is expected to play for Triple-A Buffalo on Thursday.
