2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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The Cubs sign Bonifacio...

Bonifacio has some of the worst baseball instincts I've ever seen. He's a perfect fit for the Cubs haha
 
Some news this morning.

-Dempster says he won't pitch in 2014.

-Kimbrel and Braves agree to 4 year, $42 million deal. Incentives can push it to $45.5 and the option year can make it $58.5.

With the money that the Braves are spending this offseason, wonder if they have enough for Heyward, Simmons, and Minor. And do the Sox do anything with the $13 million they're saving on Dempster. 
 
^ Braves already signed Heyward 2 year deal.

Simmons and Minor are next. Apparently the Braves have more money with the new stadium they will be getting.

I'm beyond shocked that we signed Kimbrel to an extension.
 
I thought the Braves just bought out his arbitration years? I think Heyward is gone once those two years are up, cause he's gonna want more than Freddie.
 
^ Yeah all they did was buy out his arbitration years. My question was more about what are they going to do with Heyward when he's a free agent. Everyone talked about how ATL didn't have a lot of money so how are they gonna afford him?

And per Ken Rosenthal and others, the O's and Ubaldo agree on a deal. Sources are saying 4 years, $48 million. Deal is still pending a physical. Knowing the O's thats a toss up.
 
Thank you Baltimore Orioles for paying Ubaldo! Thanks for solidifying your place in the cellar of the AL East.

Signed,
Happy Rays fan.
 
The cost of not extending Trout.

Back in the innocent days of 2000, before Biogenesis, centaurs and slaps, a young Alex Rodriguez signed what was then by far the biggest deal in baseball history, a 10-year contract worth $252 million. Unless the Los Angeles Angels take quick action -- and maybe even if they do -- their megastar in center field, Mike Trout, is set to repeat history after the 2017 season, with his own free agent deal of mouth-gaping figures.

It's conventional wisdom in some circles that A-Rod's deal with the Texas Rangers represented utter lunacy on the part of team owner Tom Hicks. In reality, the giant contract simply reflected the perfect storm of traits that caused A-Rod to be so incredibly valuable at the time. Not only did Rodriguez have a strong case for being the best player in baseball on an inner circle Hall of Fame trajectory, but he hit the market at a point in his career when his new team would get most of that value.

Typically, a superstar hits free agency is in his late 20s or even early 30s. A-Rod hit the market after his age-24 season, so his next employer didn't have to worry about his decline years like it would with most free agents.

Trout shares these traits, so when he hits the open market it will likely result in another big step forward in the record annual salary. He had a good case as American League MVP in each of the past two seasons, and didn't turn 22 until this past Aug. 7. Like A-Rod, Trout is set to hit the market at a younger than usual age, potentially becoming a free agent after the 2017 season, his age-25 campaign.

The Angels know that a long-term contract for Trout is going to be pricey, and although they can pay him close to the league minimum as a pre-arbitration player in 2014, he will start to get a lot more expensive via arbitration in 2015. Word on the street is that they are discussing a long-term deal with their young star.

They had better make a deal soon, because Trout's price will only go up with each year, and we have the tools to calculate exactly how much more they will have to pay if they don't make a deal this season.

What's Trout worth?
Trout's 10-year projection
While his WAR declines to 6.3 by 2023, remember that just 12 hitters topped that mark in 2013. In other words, he'll still be elite in 10 years.

Year WAR
2014 9.5
2015 8.9
2016 8.1
2017 7.9
2018 7.5
2019 7.2
2020 7.1
2021 7.0
2022 6.6
2023 6.3
The first thing to do is get a long-term projection for Trout and estimate his arbitration salaries and what he could eventually get on the free-agent market. While the ZiPS projection system projects Trout for nearly 10 wins above a replacement player (WAR) in 2014 (9.5) -- a ZiPS record by a healthy margin -- the risk for a player like Trout in the long-term is quite one-sided.


Long-term expectations for superstars aren't pretty bell curves around their established level of play, simply because there's a lot more room to fall than to improve. Think of it this way: There are a lot more baseball things that could happen to turn Trout into a five-WAR player than into a 15-WAR player. As we get to free agency, these risks lead ZiPS to estimate that Trout should be considered a seven- to eight-WAR player for the purpose of pricing his future free-agent contracts this far in advance.

Assuming Trout receives league-minimum salary for 2014 and arbitration awards of roughly 25 percent, 45 percent and 70 percent of his open market value from 2015-17 (superstars tend not to do as well on a percentage basis in arbitration as typical players do), ZiPS estimates $69 million as a fair offer to get Trout through his arbitration years. Then the fun begins.

Even at 7.7 WAR (his 2018 projection as of now), if the value of one WAR increases at 5 percent from the $5.45 million I estimate that teams are paying for this in 2014, that's enough to get Trout past the $50 million mark per season. So if we are estimating a 10-year deal, that gives us $69 million for his next four years, plus $312 million for the following six seasons (2018-23), for a total of $381 million over 10 years. (Remember in December when Buster Olney said Trout could crack the $400 million barrier? Doesn't sound so crazy now, does it?)

That sounds pricey, but we're also talking about dollar figures after another five to 10 years of salary growth in baseball, and one of the most valuable players to ever reach free agency. That $381 million is factoring in all the downside risk that even Trout possesses. Now, what happens if he actually hits his 2014 projection and free agency becomes even closer before the Angels deal?

The cost of waiting
As we know, the closer a player gets to free agency, the more expensive he becomes. That helps explain why Clayton Kershaw was able to get a seven-year, $215 million deal a year before hitting free agency, while Felix Hernandez got $175 million over seven years two years from free agency.

If Trout plays up to his elite level this season, the cost of signing him for 2018 through 2023 goes up substantially. While we originally calculated that time period to cost $312 million, it goes up to $335 million if he meets his 2014 projection.

If he hits his new 2015 projection, that goes up again to $362 million before 2016. And if he continues to hit his mean projection for the 2017 season, that goes up to $395 million. In other words, if the Angels continued to go year-to-year with Trout and nothing terrible happens in the interim, the price to sign him just for 2018-2023 pops up by more than $80 million.

When and if to agree on a long-term contract extension with Trout is likely the biggest decisions that the Angels -- or maybe any team -- will have to face in the next few seasons. Trout is a franchise player, one of the rare players for whom it's not ludicrous to start daydreaming about his plaque in Cooperstown.

If Angels owner Arte Moreno and general manager Jerry Dipoto are smart, the sooner they make the decision that would ensure there'd be a haloed-A on Trout's plaque, the better.

Jimenez signing keeps O's in contention.

The concern within the Baltimore Orioles’ organization, as the negotiations with Ubaldo Jimenez began percolating over the last 48 hours, was that the Boston Red Sox or Toronto Blue Jays would snag the right-hander.

The Red Sox, after all, had known in recent weeks that Ryan Dempster would probably walk away from the last year of his contract, surrendering his $13.25 million salary for the upcoming season. Boston seemingly had the rotation spot open for Dempster, as well as the newfound financial flexibility.

The Blue Jays have had a quiet offseason, generally, and are positioned to take a starting pitcher … at the right price. The Orioles had at least some reason to guess that the Blue Jays or the Red Sox could jump in, so in order to land Jimenez -- to separate themselves from what they believed to be the pack -- Baltimore increased its offer from three years to four for Jimenez, and this is how the Orioles reached the agreement on Monday.

But behind the curtain, there is this: Sources say that neither the Red Sox nor the Blue Jays actually made any offer for Jimenez, and that the dialogue was not a matter of either team pursing the player, but of Jimenez’s representative pursuing the team.

No matter how we got here, however, the fact is that the Orioles felt they needed to do something. Their window of opportunity with a core of Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, Nick Markakis, J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones is right now. Hardy and Markakis could be eligible for free agency after the upcoming season, and Davis and Wieters -- both represented by agent Scott Boras, whose clients typically test free agency -- are eligible to hit the market after the 2015 season.

Even if the Orioles re-signed Davis and Hardy out of that group, the essential truth is that in a division that includes the behemoth Yankees and Red Sox and the always competitive Rays, Baltimore can’t assume that chances to win will come along annually. The Orioles have some developing pitchers on the rise, like Kevin Gausman, who could be a candidate to take a big step forward, but they needed rotation help, somebody to take the pressure off Chris Tillman.

Jimenez comes with some risk, for sure, given his inconsistency, and the Orioles surrender their first-round pick to sign him. But Jimenez’s medical reports were regarded as relatively clean within the industry -- which is not the case with Ervin Santana -- and he made necessary adjustments last season, learning to work with his diminished velocity. He pitched extremely well for the Indians in the second half of last season, albeit against a bottom tier of competition. He had a 1.85 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break -- two starts against the Twins, two against the White Sox, and one start against Seattle, Houston, Miami, Texas, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Oakland, Atlanta and Baltimore.

AL East lineups are annually stacked with hitters who work counts and get on base, and Jimenez has never been pitch-efficient. Among the 81 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last season, Jimenez ranked 78th in pitches per inning, at 17.3.

No. 81: Edinson Volquez, 17.7

No. 80: Felix Doubront 17.5

No. 79: Ryan Dempster 17.5

No. 78: Jimenez 17.3

No. 77: C.J. Wilson 17.2


AP Photo/John Minchillo
Jacoby Ellsbury, who recently signed with the Yankees, stole 58 bases last season.
Another thing to consider: The Orioles’ division rivals tend to be aggressive on the bases -- the AL East includes Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner andJose Reyes, and the division had three of the top nine base-stealing teams in MLB in 2013 -- and Jimenez, with his complicated delivery, struggles to slow base runners (although he was better last year).

But Jimenez’s annual average salary of $12.5 million, diminished by deferred money in this deal, is in line with second-tier and third-tier starters. Matt Garza -- who is more accomplished and not tied to draft-pick compensation, but perhaps with greater perceived risk for injury -- signed a four-year, $50 million deal with the Brewers.

Now that the Orioles are invested in Jimenez and have sacrificed that first-round pick, they might as well consider some of the other unsigned big names: Nelson Cruz, who split time at DH and in left field, could help balance out a lineup. Kendrys Morales could be their primary DH against right-handed pitching and share DH time against lefties with Wieters. Maybe even Stephen Drew, who could provide some protection at second base and third base. If Drew signs a two-year deal, he would give the Orioles a safety net at shortstop in the event Hardy walked away after this season.

Was the Jimenez deal expensive? Yes. Could you make a case that the Orioles could’ve avoided the long-term deal and instead used their 2014 payroll space to retain closer Jim Johnson? Yes. Could Jimenez really struggle against the other AL East teams? Perhaps.

But the Orioles are at least taking a shot and trying to get better, at the end of what has been a difficult winter for them.

• Keith Law likes this deal for the O’s.

• This shows they’re willing to make a move, writes Peter Schmuck.

• The Jays stood pat.

• Deep down, the Indians didn’t want the inconsistent Jimenez back, writes Paul Hoynes.

From his story:
Last year’s 13-9 performance was not enough to convince the Indians that he was worth a multi-year deal even though they knew Mickey Callaway would be back this year as pitching coach. Jimenez credited Callaway with smoothing his complicated delivery to a point where he could repeat it on a consistent basis.

The Indians never had a problem with Jimenez’s effort and personality. He worked tirelessly to correct his flaws on the mound and caused none of the clubhouse tension that swirled around him in Colorado.

It just seemed that compared to what it would take to keep Jimenez, the Indians didn’t think he was worth the ulcers caused from watching him pitch. Was it a mistake if Jimenez has really turned a corner? Yes, because the Indians desperately need another quality starter.

Yet at this moment, no team knows Jimenez better than the Indians. They’ve lived with him for the last 2.5 years. They sent four players, including No.1 picks Drew Pomeranz and Alex White, to Colorado in the deal. They sent trainers to the Dominican Republic to work with him in the offseason. Callaway made two trips to the Dominican last winter to establish a relationship with Jimenez.

If this turns out to be a miscalculation, it won’t be because of a rash decision by the Indians. Rather, it will be because of the hard work of Jimenez.

Around the league

• On our first daily Baseball Tonight podcast for 2014, Tim Kurkjian addresses the stance of Matt Kemp, the Red Sox's issues, and the Craig Kimbrel signing.

• Scott Boras says Kendrys Morales fits the Pirates.

• Sandy Koufax likes watching Yasiel Puig.

• Joba Chamberlain won the rag ball competition.

• Brad Ausmus is ready for his first address to the whole team, as John Lowe writes.

• The Rangers’ rotation is a jumble, writes Jerry Crasnick.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Indians are prepared to go to arbitration with Justin Masterson.

2. Homer Bailey says he’s really close to an extension.

3. Travis Wood says it’s all quiet in regards to an extension.

4. Big contracts are costing the Phillies depth, writes David Murphy.

I mentioned here yesterday how the Phillies dole out more money in their contractual options and buyouts than other teams. Rival executives believe these buyouts also significantly chop at the trade value of the players.

5. Joe Savery was claimed on waivers.

Dings and dents

1. Tyler Chatwood is feeling good.

The fight for jobs

1. Some Washington pitchers are scrapping for precious spots, writes Adam Kilgore.

2. Joe Blanton is no lock for the Angels’ rotation. A couple of young pitchers are trying to make the Angels’ rotation, writes J.P. Hoornstra.

3. Jason Heyward will likely hit leadoff for the Braves, writes David O’Brien.

4. Evan Gattis is the Braves’ starting catcher.

AL East

• Dioner Navarro is catching on with the Jays, writes Ken Fidlin.

• Carlos Beltran and Brian Roberts have joined the Yankees.

• Michael Pineda eyes a big role.

• Will Middlebrooks has rediscovered his edge.

• A happy and healthy Evan Longoria is ready for spring training.

• James Loney sees unfinished business.

• Jake McGee is working on different pitches, writes Marc Topkin.

• CC Sabathia intends to use the Andy Pettitte blueprint if his velocity doesn’t come back.

• Jon Lester is ready to show again that he’s an ace, writes Steve Buckley.

AL Central

• Bruce Rondon is feeling much better, writes Lynn Henning.

• Mike Sweeney is settling into his new role with the Royals.

• The White Sox are likely to go with 12 pitchers, says Robin Ventura.

• Kurt Suzuki is looking to make pitchers feel comfortable.

AL West

• Oakland’s pitching defense is getting attention.

• Taijuan Walker and James Paxton look like they’re ready for the big league rotation.

• Lloyd McClendon says the Mariners are more than just Robinson Cano.

• The Astros’ Carlos Correa arrived in major league camp.

NL East

• Jonathan Papelbon says he’s going to be more positive.

• Ryan Howard is working hard on his defense.

• The Marlins’ new hitting coach brings a work ethic, as Clark Spencer writes.

• Jarrod Saltalamacchia is happy to be home.

• Noah Syndergaard put on a show at Mets’ camp.

NL Central

• Andrew McCutchen vows to get better.

• Pete Kozma hopes to make his mark again.

• Robert Stephenson is one of the key guys in the Reds’ camp.

• Ryan Ludwick is feeling good.

• The Cubs’ Javier Baez is in no rush.

• Matt Garza has bolstered the Brewers’ rotation.

NL West

• Arizona is preparing for the trip to Sydney.

• David Hernandez wants to get back to what he was in the past, writes Nick Piecoro.

• Michael Morse is in good humor.

• Chase Headley hopes to play for the Padres for a long time, writes Corey Brock.

Matt Williams brings new order to Nats.

VIERA, Fla. -- Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and some of the other Washington pitchers waited on bullpen mounds here Sunday morning, and somewhere else on the field, the hands of a clock reached the prescribed moment and an air horn sounded -- and the pitchers went to work, like horses coming through the gates.

Not long after, at another work station, a pitcher began to gather his equipment and prepare for a move to another field, but before he could leave a coach said to him, “Wait here until you hear the horn.”

The horn sounded a few seconds later, and the coach shooed the pitcher along.

This is the structure built under new Nationals manager Matt Williams, and before you get the wrong impression and think of the place as humorless and sterile, please understand that just about everybody else here pokes fun at his need for order, including Williams.

This is about commitment, the players understand, about being purposeful in work, and not about Williams counting seconds and identifying loiterers. In his first meeting with the pitchers and catchers here the other day, the players say that Williams was direct and positive and all about helping them get better.

“He hasn’t forgotten about how hard the game is,” one veteran said. “He played, and he gets it.”

Williams was so highly regarded by a core of the players in Arizona, where he has coached in recent seasons, that if Kirk Gibson had been let go, Williams would’ve had a lot of support in the Diamondbacks clubhouse to be the replacement. They responded to him, because of how direct and businesslike he is, and the Nationals are doing the same in his first days on the job, with his schedules and air horns and all.

He is well spoken, succinct and thoughtful, and he absorbed their work Sunday. “I just want to see their commitment level,” he said. “It’s a team that has a lot of talent, and there’s a lot being said about this club, but we have to fully commit if we’re going to win. So that’s what I’m looking for -- I’m looking for their enthusiasm and attention to detail, and we’ll go from there.”

What Williams noticed in Sunday’s workout was how Strasburg expended a lot of effort in working on his setup to hold runners. Strasburg wants to have a better idea of where the runner is as he comes set, to combat their leads, and Sunday, he worked on his slide step as well. “That’s the attention to detail we’re looking for,” Williams said.

The perception of some within the organization is that some of the greatest difference that Williams may make could be in the team’s defense -- helping the fielders be more efficient, aiding the positioning for a team that scouts viewed as subpar last season, doing little things that can make a difference.
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Mark Cunningham/Getty Images
Ryan Zimmerman could see time at first. His bat plays well there, too.

Most of the significant defensive shifting done in baseball is in the AL East, and with the Milwaukee Brewers. Williams may not completely embrace shifts to that degree, but the expectation is that he will help the Nationals be more specific in how players are aligned.

“It’s important in today’s game that you’re in the right spot,” Williams said. “We have all this knowledge that’s available to us, all these statistics and any piece of information we want. We might as well use it, understand what our guys do well and get them in a position to succeed. If we can do that, we have a chance everyday, and that’s all we ask.”

Williams has told infielders that if they can dance, they can play infield, because he believes defense is about timing and rhythm. When he played, Williams said, he would listen to the music piped over the field during batting practice and infield and he would try to time his own movements according to the beats of the sound.

Now his own players will move according to the sounds of a horn, on their way to getting better, better than they were in 2013.

Notables

• The news about Mark Mulder is a bummer.

• Michael Pineda says he feels well, and the early perception in the Yankees’ camp is that he is throwing well, progressing toward the sort of velocity that made him one of baseball’s most coveted young pitchers. He has another motive to come back: He wants to play with Derek Jeter.

"When I heard I was traded to the Yankees, I was thinking, 'I get to play with Mariano Rivera, with [Derek] Jeter,'" Pineda said.

But Pineda hasn’t played in the big leagues in either of the past two seasons, as he works his way back from shoulder surgery, so he never actually played in the same game as Rivera. He will have a chance to do that, it appears, with Jeter.

“That’s what I’ve always wanted,” said Pineda, who has worked diligently on his English.


AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Atlanta's signing of Craig Kimbrel involved some give on both sides.

• Craig Kimbrel’s arbitration trajectory was guaranteed to take him to a place where the Braves wouldn’t be able to afford him -- and to a place where Kimbrel, born and raised in Alabama, wouldn’t be able to stay with the Braves.

But the two sides worked around that inevitability with a four-year, $42 million deal. Kimbrel relented, to a degree, surrendering the opportunity to set records through arbitration year by year -- and in return, he got a whole lot of guaranteed money and a future with the Braves assured.

Atlanta relented too, paying Kimbrel near the top of the scale for pitchers with three-plus years of service and immediately making him one of the highest-paid relievers in baseball. In return, the Braves got a bit of a break on Kimbrel’s annual wage and, more important, they are assured of retaining the best reliever in baseball.

Think about this: Kimbrel has faced 883 hitters in his career so far, and struck out 381.

Kimbrel’s contract is the latest piece in the Atlanta plan altered by a forthcoming ballpark.

• Homer Bailey’s contract talks could impact the Indians and Justin Masterson, writes Paul Hoynes. Bailey is scheduled for arbitration later this week.

• Ryan Dempster walked away from baseball for personal reasons, as Gordon Edes writes, walking away from a potential $13.25 million salary. From Gordon’s piece:
During his big league career, Dempster was paid more than $89 million, according to Baseballprospectus.com. He's not the first player to walk away from millions, [Red Sox GM Ben] Cherington said, but it's still an uncommon gesture.

"In a career full of earning respect and building respect, he's ending his time with the Red Sox in a way that only bolsters that, strengthens that feeling about him," Cherington said. "It was ultimately the right thing to do in his mind. That doesn't mean it was an easy thing to do, and I have great respect for him making the decision that way."

His decision surprised his former Cubs teammates.

Dempster’s decision gives the Red Sox additional financial flexibility. Sunday’s announcement was about Dempster’s personal decision, but there is no question that within the cold numbers, this may benefit Boston. Dempster battled injuries throughout 2013 and in the second half of last season, he had a 5.16 ERA in 13 games. If he had been a free agent after last season, at age 36, he would’ve received a fraction of what the Red Sox had committed to him for 2014.

Now, with Dempster stepping aside, Boston has more wiggle room in dollars to add this spring or during the regular season, if it chooses, and, more directly, the Red Sox might get more production out of the roster spot that would’ve been committed to Dempster.

• Matt Harvey is focused on rehabilitating his elbow.

• David Samson says the Marlins’ big ballpark benefits the team.

• On paper, the Red Sox and Pirates would seem to have a potential match for first baseman Mike Carp -- if Grady Sizemore demonstrates that he’s healthy enough to be counted on. Carp had a nice season last year, posting an .885 OPS in 86 games, and the Pirates could a left-handed hitting first baseman, but the Red Sox probably wouldn’t consider moving Carp if they have doubts about Sizemore.

Dings and dents

1. Within this Derrick Goold notebook, there is word that Jason Motte returned to the mound.

2. Colby Lewis could have one more comeback in him, and it could save the Rangers.

3. Matt Harrison can’t let the Rangers’ rotation situation impact his preparation.

4. Casey Kelly threw 65 pitches, as Corey Brock writes.

5. Mark Teixeira plans on playing in a lot of games.

6. This is good news: Manny Machado was back on the field, writes Eduardo Encina.

7. This is not good: Miguel Gonzalez’s throwing session was pushed back because of back spasms.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Royals GM Dayton Moore doesn’t see a fit for Ervin Santana.

2. The Brewers would like to invest a long-term deal in Jean Segura.

The fight for jobs

1. Carlos Gonzalez may stay in left field, after all.

2. Justin Smoak says the first base job is his to lose.

3. Danny Espinosa will get a shot to win the Nationals’ second-base job.

NL East

• Strasburg focused in his bullpen session, as Adam Kilgore writes.

• Jose Fernandez did a ton of bicycling over the winter, writes Juan Rodriguez.

• B.J. Upton’s swing looks cleaner.

• Jason Heyward is going to continue wearing his protective garb.

• Ryan Zimmerman arrived to find a first baseman’s mitt.

• The Nationals have evolved from a circus, writes Thom Loverro.

• Age might not be such a bad thing for the Phillies, writes Bob Brookover.

• The Phillies needed A.J. Burnett, writes David Murphy.

• As always, the Phillies were really aggressive with their option year: Burnett gets $7.5 million in a player option if Philadelphia turns down its $15 million option for 2015.

• The Mets are hoping Bartolo Colon can provide a lift.

NL Central

• Pat Neshek is driven to return to the majors, writes Derrick Goold.

• Starlin Castro may hit leadoff.

• Cubs prospect Kris Bryant drew a crowd.

• Jeff Locke put his back injury in the past, writes Bill Brink.

• Jameson Taillon is a work in progress, writes Rob Biertempfel.

NL West

• Mark Trumbo is intent on improving his outfield skills.

• Walt Weiss thinks the Rockies could be pretty good in 2014.

• Tim Lincecum is more prepared for camp this year, writes Henry Schulman.

• The Dodgers plan to monitor Clayton Kershaw’s innings.

• Yasiel Puig intends to dial it down in 2014, writes Dylan Hernandez.

AL East

• John Gibbons needs to take control, writes Jeff Blair.

• The Blue Jays are about to get serious, writes John Lott.

• Wil Myers is getting ready for his first full major league season.

• Kevin Long couldn’t get through to Robinson Cano about his lack of hustle, writes John Harper.

• There are question marks in the Yankees’ bullpen, writes George King.

AL Central

• Robbie Ray knows he must prove himself to the Tigers, as George Sipple writes.

• The Royals need to protect Salvador Perez, writes Andy McCullough.

• Asdrubal Cabrera is hoping to be better.

• John Danks is trying to get back to his old form.

• The Twins’ spring facility is upgraded.

AL West

• The Astros kicked off spring training.

• The Rangers have some lame ducks.

• Oakland’s pitching is impressive at first glance.

• The Athletics are counting on Scott Kazmir, writes John Hickey.

• A new stance should help the Mariners’ Mike Zunino.

Reasons for optimism on every MLB team.

TAMPA BAY -- CC Sabathia laughed about the reaction to his weight loss -- 40 pounds over the last two offseasons, he said Friday -- and mentioned that he felt like the winner of the show “The Biggest Loser.” He said he feels better, with his body adapted to his new weight, and he feels he’ll have the power back on his fastball.

In other words: It’s spring training, when everybody is entitled to optimism. Heck, optimism is required at this time of year, because if you’re not feeling good after having a winter of work and thought and anticipation of something new and better, well, there’s a root problem in place.

Reasons for optimism for each of the 30 teams:



Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Their rotation has improved, and Albert Pujols -- a grinder who has had a habit of playing through injuries in his career -- had a chance to heal last season. Bernie Miklasz thinks Pujols will have a big bounce-back year.



San Francisco Giants: Pablo Sandoval is in tremendous shape, relatively speaking, and the Giants’ pitching staff had a full offseason of recovery. And Tim Hudson says his ankle is feeling really good.



Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates learned to take the next step in 2013 by making the playoffs. And while Andrew McCutchen was the MVP last season, other position players have a lot of room for growth. We’re also just seeing the start of Gerrit Cole’s career.



Cleveland Indians: Rotation help is needed, and Danny Salazar demonstrated at the end of last season how dynamic he can be. The Indians are additionally encouraged by what they’ve seen in Trevor Bauer's revamped delivery. Remember, Bauer had enough talent that he was taken third overall in one of the best drafts in recent memory, and he appears much more comfortable with his mechanics, a hybrid of those he had in college and those he began adopting last season.

• Bauer’s delivery is making a good impression, writes Paul Hoynes.



Tampa Bay Rays: Their rotation is loaded and their lineup is deep. This is particularly true if Wil Myers takes the next step and improves his focus through experience and becomes a strong lineup complement to Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria.



Philadelphia Phillies: If A.J. Burnett comes in and pitches for Philadelphia the way he did for the Pirates for a lot of last season, and if Cole Hamels bounces back from his tendinitis, the Phillies’ rotation could be pretty good.



Los Angeles Dodgers: Zack Greinke was limited to 28 starts last season because of a spring injury and a suspension, but they should have him for a full season this year. Their great rotation could be even better, with the addition of Dan Haren and the expected return of Chad Billingsley early in the season.



Seattle Mariners: No matter how effective the lineup is, how deep, they will be better with the addition of Robinson Cano. The improvement starts there.



St. Louis Cardinals: Last year they had to integrate a lot of very young pitchers into their roster -- and made it to the World Series. Now Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez, etc., are a year older, a year wiser, and some rival teams that assess other clubs are projecting the Cardinals to win the NL Central handily.



Chicago White Sox: General manager Rick Hahn has revamped the lineup with the likes of first baseman Jose Abreu, center fielder Adam Eaton and third baseman Matt Davidson. Early last season, hope evaporated quickly -- but now it’s back. The White Sox are holding out hope for the playoffs, writes Daryl Van Schouwen.



Atlanta Braves: Put it this way -- B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla can’t play worse than they did last year, and the Braves still won the NL East with ease. Upton and Uggla could bounce back, Jason Heyward appears ready to climb to the next level of hitters, and watch Andrelton Simmons’s developing pop; he had an OPS of .630 in the first half and .789 in the second half.



Toronto Blue Jays: Nothing went right for them last year, from Jose Reyes’s early-season ankle injury to the wave of problems that hit the rotation. They still have a lot of talent, and it’s possible that they’ll add a good, veteran starting pitcher before the start of the season.



Arizona Diamondbacks: Rival evaluators see a lot of room for growth for this team, which should have a shut-down defense and a deep bullpen, around MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. Catcher Miguel Montero should be better.



Oakland Athletics: Remember, they’re two-time defending champions in this division, and the bullpen should be overpowering, with a great group of set-up men -- including newcomer Luke Gregerson – in front of new closer Jim Johnson. And now they’ll have a full season of Sonny Gray.



Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun is back with his Biogenesis history now behind him, at the center of what could be a good lineup. Watch Khris Davis, an intriguing hitter who had a .949 OPS in 56 games last season. The rotation could be good, too.



Detroit Tigers: In the first year of manager Brad Ausmus, the Tigers should have more speed, better defense and a better bullpen.



New York Yankees: Sabathia has a chance to restart after his frustrating 2013, and there is also this -- some encouraging signs about Michael Pineda, the pitching phenom who hasn’t been in the big leagues since 2011 because of shoulder issues. Word is that he appears to be throwing well and on his way to perhaps rebuilding his velocity to where it was when he was with the Mariners.



Washington Nationals: They had what was widely perceived to be a great offseason, with the addition of Doug Fister and some left-handed relief, as well as needed outfield depth in Nate McLouth. Oh, yeah -- they also have Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond and Jayson Werth at their core.



Houston Astros: The pile of young talent they’ve collected continues to grow, and we could see the climb of two in their first major wave, in Jon Singleton and George Springer.



Texas Rangers: They determined their greatest need to be in left-handed hitting, and they added Shin-Soo Choo -- one of the game’s best OBP men -- and Prince Fielder, one of the sport’s best power hitters. This should mean more margin for error for the pitching staff.



San Diego Padres: The Padres have a lot of good players on their 25-man roster, and Bud Black should have a strong pitching staff. Everth Cabrera and Yasmani Grandal can move on from their PED issues, meaning the Padres should have their regular team on the field much more often in the year ahead.



Cincinnati Reds: Nobody in baseball can alter a game with his speed the way that Billy Hamilton can, and he figures to create a lot of scoring opportunities for Cincinnati -- which has a very, very underrated pitching staff.



Kansas City Royals: They could have the best defense in baseball to go along with an improved lineup and a good pitching staff. They have every reason to believe they can make the playoffs this year, for the first time since 1985.



New York Mets: Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud will be playing their first full seasons, and David Wright will have more lineup help around him, with the addition of Curtis Granderson and Chris Young. And like Uggla and Upton, Ike Davis cannot possibly be worse than he was last season.

• Terry Collins thinks this is going to be a good year for the Mets.



Boston Red Sox: They are stocked with a lot of young talent, giving them a real shot to replace the offense lost because of the departure of Jacoby Ellsbury. Xander Bogaerts is viewed by rival evaluators as a player who could have Manny Machado impact.



Baltimore Orioles: Even though they didn’t add much this offseason, the Orioles still have a great core of players -- Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, etc. -- and Machado appears as if he’s suitably recovered from his knee injury and ready to continue his ascent to superstardom.



Miami Marlins: Mike Hill, the team’s president of baseball operations, explained recently that the Marlins believe they’ve bolstered the lineup around Giancarlo Stanton, with the additions of Garrett Jones and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The signing of Rafael Furcal will enable them to move Christian Yelich into the middle part of the batting order. And remember: A rotation loaded with potential stars with the best young pitcher on the planet, Jose Fernandez.



Chicago Cubs: Rick Renteria takes over as manager and gives the organization a fresh voice, and there is a lot of hope that Starlin Castro can get back on track this year. The growth within the Cubs’ farm system has been slow -- but unquestionably, their collection of talent is better than it has been in a long, long time.



Minnesota Twins: The front office made it clear that it would not stand for another summer of non-competitive pitching, and the Twins’ rotation will be better through the additions of Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes. And those two stars on the horizon: Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.



Colorado Rockies: As I wrote here the other day, the Rockies had a quietly productive winter, adding depth, increasing lineup options, and Colorado has a chance to have a dynamic offense depending on how healthy Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are.

Around the league

• For the second time in two weeks, the Braves locked up a foundation piece to a long-term deal, signing pitcher Julio Teheran.

• I agree with what John Harper writes here: It may be that Sabathia never regains velocity, but his explanation of how he felt last year -- and how he feels now -- makes a lot of sense.

• The Mariners have renewed their push to bolster their roster.

• Brandon Morrow has added weight.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Max Scherzer won’t talk about a contract extension during the season.

2. The Rangers settled their case with Mitch Moreland.

3. The Reds are still talking about a long-term deal with Homer Bailey, and one source says it’s possible the talks could carry over into the regular season.

4. Jeff Samardzija knows he could be traded this season. He’s trying to boost his value, writes Jesse Rogers.

5. Tyler Clippard is relieved he didn’t go through arbitration.

6. The Rays signed Erik Bedard.

Dings and dents

1. Matt Harrison’s health is really important for the Rangers.

2. The Astros’ Mark Appel is taking it slow after his appendectomy.

3. Mat Latos had cleanup surgery on his knee.

4. Jake Peavy left the Red Sox complex with a heavily bandaged hand, writes Peter Abraham. Peavy told reporters that it’s nothing, as Gordon Edes writes.

5. Ryan Cook and Sean Doolittle are having some minor issues.

AL East

• Derek Jeter’s decision makes things easier for the Yankees, writes David Waldstein.

Yes and no. I agree with the premise, in theory. On the other hand, if Jeter hasn’t markedly improved in how he’s moving, then the fact that he’s on a final tour of cities will create some pressure on Girardi to play Jeter in spite of his physical limitations. A lot of tickets are being sold for a lot of money as fans aim to get their last look at Jeter.

• Jeter says he has no concerns about his health, as Anthony McCarron writes.

• Buck Showalter is setting a foundation.

• The Rays have a big appetite for success, writes Marc Topkin.

AL Central

• Brad Ausmus introduced a new drill.

• Danny Duffy is fighting for a spot in the Royals’ rotation.

• James Shields is aiming for the playoffs.

AL West

• Arte Moreno says the Angels’ stadium talks are at a stalemate, writes Mike DiGiovanna.

• Tommy Hanson doesn’t like discussing last season, Evan Grant writes.

• A Seattle reliever is ready for a set-up role.

NL East

• New Phillies coach Bob McClure is focused on location.

• Doug Fister can fix things, as Adam Kilgore writes.

• Ike Davis is surprised he’s still with the Mets.

• Alex Wood is ready to start or relieve.

• Here are five questions about the Marlins, from Juan Rodriguez.

NL Central

• Seth Maness, groundball guy.

• The Cubs could give Kyle Hendricks a shot, writes Mark Gonzalez.

• Doug Melvin likes his pitching depth.

• The Pirates breathed a sigh of relief after Wandy Rodriguez’s first bullpen session.

• Edinson Volquez signed with the Pirates based on the advice of a friend.

NL West

• Waiting for the D-backs’ confidence last year was hard, says Gerardo Parra.

• Matt Kemp says he’s not a fourth outfielder.

• For Ian Kennedy, there is a new beginning.

Jimenez makes sense for the Orioles.

The Baltimore Orioles get a mild bargain in Ubaldo Jimenez -- four years for close to $50 million -- by waiting out the market, although the loss of the 17th overall pick in the 2014 draft stings, and Ubaldo himself is still a volatile asset. That said, I think it's a positive move for them even with the associated risk.

Jimenez spent two-and-a-half years with Cleveland, and the first two years were awful, with a 5.10 ERA in 340 2/3 innings. Early in 2013, however, Cleveland pitching coach Mickey Callaway worked on speeding up Ubaldo's delivery and keeping him more online toward the plate when he strides. There were flashes of the new Ubaldo in the first half of 2013, and in the second half, he was dominant, punching out 100 against 27 walks in 84 innings. In fact, Jimenez allowed more than three runs in only five starts after April.

Hoping for the best

The Ubaldo Jimenez that the Orioles are hoping they'll get is the version we saw in that second half, sitting mid-90s, throwing more strikes, missing more bats with the fastball so he can get to the plus slider and above-average splitter. If you're just grading out the pitches, he'll have outings in which he pitches with three 60s or better, and now he sometimes he can harness that stuff as well. For roughly $12 million a year, it seems like a bargain; the risk here is that Baltimore just guaranteed that salary for four years to a guy who has had, speaking broadly, two good half-seasons in his major league career.

The Orioles weren't going to contend this year without adding some pitching from outside of the organization. Adding Jimenez and Suk-min Yoon may not make them contenders, but the combination of moves helps push them closer to a range where you could see them staying in the wild-card race, something that would become more plausible if, for example, they also signed Ervin Santana or Kendrys Morales.

Good for Gausman

The signing also may help the Orioles keep prospect Kevin Gausman in the minors for more of 2014 so he can work on getting more consistency with his slider while still trying to turn a lineup over three times. Gausman's slider was at its best in September when he was working in relief, and when he carries that over to a starting role, he'll be ready not just to pitch in the major league rotation but to do well in it. If Gausman looks ready in March, they could bump Yoon or Bud Norris to the bullpen, but if not they have a little more depth now with Ubaldo on board and Mike Wright also available for the fifth spot.

The signing leaves Ervin Santana as the free-agent market's sole remaining mid-rotation (or better) starting pitcher, a market where demand for his services is high but few teams still claim to have the budget to pay him. (What teams claim to have and what the owners actually have are often two different things.)

At least half the teams in baseball should be after Santana for 2014, with the Toronto Blue Jays (who have two protected first-round picks), Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Indians all good fits on paper -- teams near contention with shortages in their rotations.

I imagine Santana will sign within the next week now that pitchers and catchers are reporting, which would leave just Morales and Stephen Drew (who is such a perfect fit for the Yankees that I can't fathom their apparent disinterest) among major free agents left unsigned.

Modest debuts for top college arms.

Mother Nature did its very best to destroy the opening weekend of college baseball, and several high-profile prospect saw their debuts pushed back to Saturday or Sunday because of the blustery conditions on the East Coast, and in some cases canceled entirely.

Nevertheless, the poor weather didn't completely ruin the weekend, and plenty of potential first-round picks made their first impressions of the season. We saw the top two arms in the class have a solid -- if unspectacular -- debuts, dominating opening starts from two of the Southwest's best arms, and two of the class' best backstops have decidedly different levels of success.

No pitcher's debut was messed with more than Carlos Rodon, who was supposed to start on Friday in Santa Barbara, Calif., but instead started Sunday against Canisus because of the massive snow in Raleigh, N.C. The presumed first overall pick was not near his best, struggling to command both his fastball and slider, and sitting in the low 90s for the majority of the game. He gave up only one earned run and struck out six over his six innings of work, but that line didn't tell the story.

"[Rodon] was just a little bit off," an NL Central scout said. "He wasn't missing his spots with his fastball by more than a few inches, but clearly he didn't have his A-plus stuff. Normally when he's ahead in counts you're done for; he'll either throw the fastball by you or get the fastball by you, but that wasn't really the case today.

"I'm not concerned because he wasn't at his best to start last year, and we saw how good he was to finish the year. If he was throwing like this in April, sure, but I'm not panicking over mid-February."

Jeff Hoffman's debut likely didn't start the way the talent right-hander envisioned, giving up a home run on the second pitch of the game. He settled down after that, striking out four of the next nine hitters he faced. His overall line of 6 2/3 innings, 3 earned runs, two walks and six strikeouts doesn't look terribly impressive, but scouts walked away satisfied with how the East Carolina ace performed during a 6-5 victory again James Madison.

"I liked the way he settled down [after the home run]," an American League scout said. "But the stuff was really good all game. I had him 93-96 with a couple of 97's, and the curveball was a plus offering, as was the change at times. His command suffered a bit in the last couple of innings, but overall, there was more positives than negatives, which is always nice to see in the first start."

Weather permitting, Hoffman will next face what will likely be the most difficult challenge of his year, taking on a loaded Virginia lineup in Charlottesville on Friday.

The concern going into the year with Vanderbilt's Tyler Beede was with his command, and the right-hander got off to an inauspicious start, walking the first batter of the game and hitting another later in the first inning. After that, Beede's control was much improved, as he didn't allow a baserunner the rest of the game, striking out seven over five shutout innings.

"The command is the key," an AL West scout said. "There's no doubt in anyone's mind that he has the stuff to start, he's got two to three plus pitches. It was a rough first inning, but he attacked hitters the rest of the day, and hopefully that's what we see the rest of the year."

Southwest sizzle

UNLV right-hander Erick Fedde struggled with consistency throughout his sophomore campaign, but got his year off to a solid start, giving up just one hit in seven shutout inning against Central Michigan in a 5-0 win, striking out 11 and walking one. The athletic right-hander was consistently in the 93-95 mph range with his fastball, and at times showed a plus slider and above-average change.

With his athleticism and arm strength, there's a chance Fedde is a top-half of the first-round selection, but he'll need to show he can repeat these kind of performances.

It was a dominating performance from TCU left-hander Brandon Finnegan, though the competition he faced wasn't exactly upper-echelon. Against a Jacksonville team that finished last in the Atlantic Sun last season, Finnegan was perfect in his first three innings, striking out eight of the first nine hitters. He finished with 13 K's over seven shutout innings of work, touching 95 with his fastball and showing his normal advanced feel for pitching. Only his modest size (listed at 5-foot-11, 185 pounds) and somewhat awkward arm-path concern scouts, but he's a legit day-one arm who has a chance to go early come June.

Best of the bats

Trea Turner saw his summer hampered by a nagging ankle injury that literally and figuratively slowed down the NC State shortstop, but he looked plenty healthy in his debut. Turner went 3-for-4 with a stolen base on Sunday, laying down a beautiful bunt single in the eighth inning and was clocked below 3.5 by two scouts going to first on the play. He also looked good on defense, making a couple of nice plays to his right and showing adequate arm strength to handle the position.

"I think Turner's the best middle infielder in the class," said the same scout who watched Rodon. "And it was really nice to see him look healthy today. Plus-plus speed and above-average defense at a position like shortstop is always nice, and statistically he's been among the better hitters in college baseball the last two seasons."

There's some questions about the hit tool and the overall upside, but Turner's skill set will be appealing to clubs if he can stay healthy, and he could be among the first hitters -- prep or collegiate -- to come off the board in June.

It's another light year in terms of college catching, but Kennesaw State backstop Max Pentecost was outstanding over the summer, and continued to impress over the weekend. Pentecost went 8-for-13 with two doubles, two walks and a hit-by-pitch over the weekend against Middle Tennessee State, and also threw out two of the four runners who attempted stolen bases.

Indiana catcher Kyle Schwarber did not have the same success in his series versus Texas Tech. The left-handed hitting backstop picked up a double in his first at-bat, but then preceded to go 2-for-14 with a walk and a strikeout over the four game series with the Red Raiders. He also spent some time in the outfield, but most scouts believe that if he's not going to end up behind the plate, his most likely landing spot due to his lack of speed and athleticism is going to be first base.

"I know a lot of people like Schwarber, but if you're asking me to choose between the two I'd rather have [Pentecost]," an NL West scout told me after watching the Indiana series. "There's more power in Schwarber's bat by a considerable margin, but Pentecost has above-average tools across the board and I have far less questions about his glove. Schwarber is going to have to hit if he's going to have to convince us he's a 45 glove [on the 20-80 scouting scale] and a 60 bat if he's going to be a first-round pick, and I don't think he's either."

Ranking teams by peak value.

If every player on every Major League team were at his absolute peak -- each as good as he was in his finest season -- which team would win the World Series?
Inspired by Kevin Pelton's recent piece ranking NBA teams based on their players' peak values, I set out to answer this very question for baseball.

To do this we need to imagine what would happen if Derek Jeter were 25 years old again, if Josh Hamilton played like an MVP and if Grady Sizemore were a young superstar. We are forming dream teams, not by gathering the best of the players across teams, but rather by collecting the best historical seasons within current rosters.

I started by finding each player's best season according to FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement, substituting in 2014 Steamer projections for players who are expected to play better than ever before. I then took the best 18 player-seasons from each current team, insisting that each team field five starting pitchers, three relievers and nine hitters that form a workable lineup. (For most clubs, the last seven roster spots are relatively interchangeable from a WAR standpoint, and what we're really trying to measure here is top-end talent.)

I calculated the total WAR for each team and, just for fun, pitted these super teams against one another in 10,000 simulated seasons. There were no injuries and no off years but, each season, 29 teams had long trips home through space and time.

What follows are the top 10 peak teams by WAR, along with how often they made the playoffs and won the World Series in the simulations.


10. Milwaukee Brewers
Results: 65.8 WAR, 51.0 percent playoffs, 1.5 percent World Series

The Brewers' outfield features Ryan Braun from 2012 (7.6 WAR), Carlos Gomez from 2013 (7.6 WAR) and a forecasted full season of Khris Davis (1.3 WAR) from 2014. Optimists might see the coincidence of three peak-like years from this trio as a real possibility for 2014, but bitter disappointment seems just as likely. No other outfield can match their combination of risk and reward.

The Brewers' outfield, along with stellar seasons from Rickie Weeks, Aramis Ramirez, Matt Garza and Yovani Gallardo are enough to lead the Brewers to division titles in better than 40 percent of the simulations.


9. Atlanta Braves
Results: 67.0 WAR, 55.1 percent playoffs, 2.3 percent World Series)

Unbelievably, the ace of the Braves' staff is Freddy Garcia (5.3 WAR in 2001), and Gavin Floyd is their No. 2 starter (4.2 WAR in 2009). The Braves feature the strongest bullpen in the competition with Kris Medlen, Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters.

While Heyward and the Upton brothers should in theory only be reaching their peaks right now, their best seasons are actually from the ages of 22 and 23. We have to face the possibility that what could have been a historic, great outfield never will be.


8. Texas Rangers
Results: 68.4 WAR, 51.7 percent playoffs, 1.7 percent World Series

Adrian Beltre leads the Rangers with the second-best peak season among active players -- a monster 9.7 WAR in 2004. According to ultimate zone rating (UZR), he was an incredible 26 runs better than the average third baseman on defense that year, but what seems flukier, in retrospect, is his offensive production. Beltre's .423 wOBA in what was a contract year was preceded by a .305 wOBA year and followed by a .308 wOBA year.


7. Arizona Diamondbacks
Results: 69.5 WAR, 64.9 percent playoffs, 1.6 percent World Series

Five members of the peak Diamondbacks (Paul Goldschmidt, Gerardo Parra, A.J. Pollock, Patrick Corbin and Addison Reed) had their best seasons last year. Past great seasons from Martin Prado, Aaron Hill, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley and a 23-year-old Eric Chavez are enough to secure a wild-card spot in 64 percent of simulations, but almost never enough to win the division.


6. San Francisco Giants
Results: 70.5 WAR, 70.3 percent playoffs, 1.9 percent World Series

While the actual Giants rotation was the 27th in baseball last year (by WAR), the track records of Tim Lincecum (7.5 WAR in 2009), Tim Hudson (5.9 WAR in 2003), Matt Cain (4.6 WAR in 2011) and Madison Bumgarner (4.6 WAR in 2011) make for the third-best rotation in the game.

Buster Posey anchors the lineup, followed by Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan. The peak Giants have the misfortune of playing in the best division in the game, and like the Diamondbacks, they regularly win wild cards while almost never winning the NL West.


5. Boston Red Sox
Results: 75.5 WAR, 89.3 percent playoffs, 4.4 percent World Series

Grady Sizemore (7.8 WAR in 2006) edges out Dustin Pedroia (7.6 in 2011) for the Red Sox's best year, and David Ortiz, Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli contribute big seasons. Xander Bogaerts' 2014 forecast chips in another 2.8 WAR.

On top of that, past tremendous seasons from Jon Lester, Jake Peavy, John Lackey and Ryan Dempster give the Sox the second best starting rotation among the dream teams, and Koji Uehara's incredible 2013 season is available to close out games.


4. Los Angeles Angels
Results: 77.9 WAR, 95.0 percent playoffs, 9.5 percent World Series

The Angels take advantage of two seasons from more than a decade ago: Albert Pujols in 2003 (9.6 WAR) and Mark Mulder in 2001 (5.6). They also have Josh Hamilton's 2010 MVP campaign (8.4) and the best single season in our entire illusory league, Mike Trout's 2013 (10.4).

Jered Weaver, Joe Blanton and C.J. Wilson join Mulder in a highly effective, if not overwhelming, rotation.


3. Detroit Tigers
Results: 79.4 WAR, 97.2 percent playoffs, 11.9 percent World Series)

Justin Verlander's 2009 (8.1 WAR) combines with Max Scherzer's (6.4) and Anibal Sanchez's (6.2) performances from last year to give the Tigers an outstanding front three. While the Tigers' 2013 bullpen was a relative weakness, teams wouldn't relish facing Joe Nathan and Joba Chamberlain at their best.

Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler lead the offense and Victor Martinez, Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter all have 5 WAR seasons to their credit.


2. New York Yankees
Results: 84.8 WAR, 99.2 percent playoffs, 18.8 percent World Series

The Yankees have tremendous roster depth or, rather, would have great depth if they were allowed to play their games in the past. Outstanding seasons by Brett Gardner (6.0 WAR) and Kelly Johnson (5.4 WAR) in 2010 don't even make the cut and yet the Yankees are stuck with Scott Sizemore's mediocre 2011 season at third base. In case you were wondering, Alex Rodriguez's best season (2002) was good for 9.8 WAR, and would be enough to bump the Yankees into the No. 1 spot if he were allowed to play. (While we're allowing ourselves to travel back in time, allowing Rodriguez to play seemed like a bridge too far.)

Derek Jeter's best season (7.4 WAR in 1999) is the second oldest best-season among current players (a young, relatively slender fireballer named Bartolo Colon had his best season in 1998). The Yankees' offense as a whole has older best-seasons than any other team (with their average best-season coming in 2007), and no roster has a larger gap between past greatness and present value.


1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Results: 92.1 WAR, 100 percent playoffs, 43.2 percent World Series

The Dodgers' rotation features the always-dominant Clayton Kershaw along with Josh Beckett from when he was a Cy Young runner-up. Going by WAR, their best starter, by a wide margin, is actually Zach Greinke from 2009, whose 9.1 WAR is the top mark by an active pitcher. Add in great years by Dan Haren and Chad Billingsley for good measure.

Matt Kemp (8.4 WAR in 2011), Carl Crawford (7.4 in 2010), Hanley Ramirez (7.2 in 2008), Adrian Gonzalez (6.3 in 2011) and, yes, Chone Figgins (6.6 in 2009) provide superstar quality seasons, and Yasiel Puig is in the majors for a full season. This Dodgers team wins an average of 111 games, which is all the more incredible when you consider that they are playing against other dream teams.

Kimbrel deal a win for Braves, industry.

The Atlanta Braves have been locking up young talent left and right. In recent weeks they have given long-term contracts to Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran that bought out arbitration and free-agent years, and on Sunday they did the same with Craig Kimbrel.

Kimbrel and the club were headed toward a potentially contentious arbitration battle, but they avoided the hearing by agreeing to a four-year deal worth $42 million with a fifth-year team option valued at $13 million. The Braves have to be thrilled with this deal, and I bet execs from other clubs are pleased to see it, as well.

Braves win

Kimbrel is just 25 years old, and in each of the past two years he posted an ERA lower than Mariano Rivera ever did. Rivera is the greatest closer of all time and probably always will be because of his longevity, but the start to Kimbrel's career has been comparable to Mo's in terms of dominance.

By signing Kimbrel now, the Braves have his prime years under control and the terms are now in line with their budget. Had they gone year-to-year with Kimbrel via arbitration, it's likely he would have broken the arbitration record for a closer and his annual salaries would have been higher than under the terms of this deal, and there were concerns they would have to trade him. That is no longer the case.

Additionally, they have bought out one of his free-agent years and could get another if they decide to pick up that team option. As long as Kimbrel is healthy, $13 million will probably be a reasonable price for him in 2018.

While every pitcher carries some risk, Kimbrel has shown no signs of slowing down. In 2013, his average fastball velocity was 96.9 mph, which is slightly higher than it was in 2011 (96.2). He earns raves for his work ethic and intensity, and while you can't prevent a fluke injury, he's a good bet to be worth the money for Atlanta.

Other GMs happy

As for the rest of the industry, this is a good precedent. If Kimbrel had gone to arbitration and shattered records, other young closers would have been tempted to go to hearings using Kimbrel as a comp, and a lot of what happens in arbitration is set on precedent. With this deal there is no new arbitration precedent.

Furthermore, this contract signals to the rest of the industry no closer will ever get more than a four-year deal. I mean, if a guy as good as Kimbrel can't get more than four years guaranteed, no one can.

I am on record as saying that I didn't like the Teheran extension, but I still have to give Braves GM Frank Wren an "A" for this offseason. He has taken the expected revenue from the Braves' new stadium and used it to lock up three of the club's brightest young stars for years to come.

The Braves are never going to compete with the Yankees and Dodgers at the high end of the payroll scale, so their path to success involves locking up homegrown talent. This is how they were successful in the 1990s, making sure that the likes of Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz didn't make it to free agency in their primes, and they appear to be following a similar blueprint now.

KC's postseason blueprint.

For just the second time in the wild-card era, the 2013 Royals finished with an above-.500 record. And for the first time in the wild-card era, they stayed in the playoff race until the final week of the season. They did so despite having an abysmal offense. This season, their offense should be improved, and with the offensive upgrades, a blueprint is in place for the team to reach the postseason.

At FanGraphs, the Royals are estimated to have 31.5 percent odds of reaching the postseason, and 23.5 percent odds of playing in a division series. Those are decent odds, though they're certainly not the best among their American League brethren. As such, a few things are going to have to break right for them to get to the postseason.

Need more offense

As stated above, the offense should be improved, but a slight improvement isn't going to do the trick. Last season, the Royals finished 26th in baseball in wRC+ once you factored out pitcher hitting, and 12th in the AL -- just the Houston Astros, New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox fared worse.

The Royals made one of the bigger upgrades they could when they signed Omar Infante to man second base. Infante likely won't be as good as he was last season with the bat, but he will still be an upgrade. Kansas City got some decent production out of Emilio Bonifacio late in the season, but until August, second base was a black hole. The quartet of Chris Getz, Elliot Johnson, Miguel Tejada and Johnny Giavotella hit an underwhelming .237/.290/.301 across 563 plate appearances. Infante has hit .296/.331/.412 over the past five seasons, and projects to hit for about the exact same line this season.

The story is similar in right field, as Norichika Aoki should bring a much higher on-base percentage than did Jeff Francoeur and David Lough. The Steamer projection system pegs Aoki for a .361 OBP, while Royals right fielders were good for a .304 mark last season. Infante and Aoki playing up to expectations will be a big boost, and having Justin Maxwell around for a full season of spot starts against left-handed pitching (career 115 wRC+ against lefties) should help as well. But the team also needs some help from the incumbents, most especially Mike Moustakas.

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Rob Tringali/Getty Images
Salvador Perez is a good candidate for a breakout year.
If this sounds like a familiar tune, that's because it is. Ever since he launched 21 homers in half a season's worth of plate appearances in Double-A, we've been waiting for "the Moose" to lay some tracks down in the big leagues. It hasn't happened yet, and one of the big reasons is his penchant for hitting balls up the chute. Since he reached the big leagues in 2011, he is one of 226 players to tally at least 1,000 plate appearances. Just four of them have hit a greater percentage of infield fly balls than have Moustakas -- three of them are light-hitting middle infielders (Brendan Ryan, Clint Barmes and Sean Rodriguez) and one is washed up (Vernon Wells). Not exactly good company.

Moustakas hit a greater percentage of line drives in 2013 than he did in 2012, but there is still clearly something wrong with his swing. He did actually hit much better in the second half (.259/.308/.416 after the break, .215/.271/.327 before it), and the Royals are going to have to hope that the improvement sticks. Moustakas' backup is Danny Valencia, who is a great option against lefties, but the team has said it won't put them in a strict platoon, which means Moustakas is still going to get the lion's share of plate appearances. If he doesn't deliver, things will get dicey.

While bounce-backs from the likes of Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar would be nice, contending teams also usually have a player who breaks out and has a career year. That player could be Salvador Perez. He has a contact-heavy approach, and if he can turn a few more of those balls in play into the line-drive variety, he will make things very difficult on opposing defenses.

We've seen this from him before, actually. In his abbreviated rookie campaign he posted a .363 wOBA behind a ridiculous 29.2 line-drive percentage. Both percentages have declined since, but if he can reverse the trend, he could provide a substantial offensive boost.

Santana is replaceable

Of course, the elephant in the room we have not yet addressed is how the team replaces Ervin Santana's production. As we've discussed before, though, Santana was a lot closer to a league-average pitcher last season than his shiny 3.24 ERA would seem to indicate. In Jason Vargas, Kansas City got a league-average pitcher, and as Steve Staude detailed in Vargas' FanGraphs+ profile, there is reason to believe in Vargas' uptick in strikeouts last season.

Jeremy Guthrie is still around to potentially drag down the starting rotation, but getting Luis Mendoza and Wade Davis out of the primary mix is a good thing. Danny Duffy always has carried with him a great deal of promise, and he showed that down the stretch last August, when he one-hit the Tigers over six innings at Comerica Park. If he can keep his walks in check, he could be on breakout watch as well.

One of the more interesting spring training stories will be whether Yordano Ventura can supplant one of the five leading candidates for a rotation spot. Keith Law has recommended breaking him in in the bullpen, and hopefully the Royals will do so if he fails to earn a rotation spot. Ventura's potential is breathtaking, as is prospect Kyle Zimmer's. By the end of the season, both should be in the rotation, hopefully with Guthrie and/or Chen being the odd men out.

Of course, we're also assuming that the bullpen and defense remain nearly as spectacular as they were last year. Even if they are, Kansas City will still need a few things to go its way. Infante and Aoki need to play to expectations, Moustakas needs to bounce back and at least one or two players need to break out, with Perez, Duffy and Ventura being leading candidates. Throw in some late-season spice from Zimmer and the continued steadily great play from James Shields, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, and you just might have a playoff team for the first time since 1985.

All of this might seem like a lot, but this is as good as the Royals have been in a while, and there is reason for optimism.

Rumors.

Position battle: Angels' fifth starter
February, 18, 2014
FEB 18
3:42
PM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
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Improving a rotation that ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.20 ERA was an offseason priority for the Angels. GM Jerry Dipoto had a busy winter, and now has three candidates competing for the final two spots behind Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Garrett Richards. The Halos had hoped that Mark Mulder would be in the mix, but a torn Achilles tendon ended his comeback attempt.
The candidates:
Hector Santiago, age 26, throws left
Tyler Skaggs, age 21, throws left
Joe Blanton, age 33, throws right
Santiago: A closer as recently as 2012, Santiago came over from the White Sox in the three-team trade involving Mark Trumbo. The southpaw had an underwhelming 3.56 ERA in 34 appearances (23 starts) for the White Sox last season, but was still getting his feet wet as a starter. Control was an issue, as he walked 4.3 batters per nine innings. He is viewed as a potential middle-of-the-rotation guy if things fall into place.

Skaggs: Came over from Arizona as part of the Trumbo deal. The trade represents a new lease in life for Skaggs, who was 3-6 with a 5.45 ERA over parts of the two seasons with the Diamondbacks and could have been headed back to the minors due to Arizona's considerable pitching depth.

Blanton: The veteran right-hander looks to bounce back from a dismal season in which he went 2-14 with a 6.04 ERA and gave up 12.2 hits per nine innings. Blanton reportedly believes he has corrected a technical flaw in his delivery after being demoted to the bullpen.

Latest update: According to Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times, Blanton has been told he is no lock for a rotation spot, even if he is on the hook for $7.5 million this season. “He had a terrible season, but when he's throwing to the best of his ability, he's capable of getting major league hitters out," manager Mike Scioscia says.

Current leader: Both Santiago and Skaggs will be given every chance to land rotation spots in order to justify the Trumbo trade, writes JP Hoornstra in the LA Daily News. Blanton has a stiff hill to climb, but the injury to Mulder makes it more likely he will keep a roster spot because of the need for veteran rotation depth.
Tags:Los Angeles Angels, Tyler Skaggs, Hector Santiago, Joe Blanton, MLB position battle
Tuesday Roundup: Deal for Masterson
February, 18, 2014
FEB 18
2:56
PM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
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Homer Bailey is believed to be closing in on a six-year, $100 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds, and the progress just may have helped Justin Masterson complete a one-year deal with the Cleveland Indians in advance of an arbitration hearing.

According to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, Masterson has reached an agreement on a one-year deal, allowing him to avoid a trip to Florida for Thursday’s hearing. Masterson, whose production and years of service are comparable to that of Bailey, filed for $11.8 million while the Indians countered at $8.05 million. With Bailey close to a contract, there may have been added pressure on the Tribe to get a deal done.

Bailey also has his hearing on Thursday, but the righthander is dropping hints that the meeting will not be necessary.

As of now, Bailey and Masterson are part of a solid free agent pitching crop for next offseason that includes such notable names as Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields.

Here are some other rumors around MLB, including the buzz on a few players whose fortunes are linked to Monday’s reported deal that sends Ubaldo Jimenez to Baltimore:
Ervin Santana: A potential landing spot for Santana came off the board Monday when the Orioles reportedly agreed to a four-year deal with Jimenez. The Blue Jays and Yankees are other AL East teams still linked to Santana, but the market may be tightening.

Kendrys Morales: A huge cost of signing Jimenez is the loss of a first-round draft pick as compensation. Now that the first-round pick already is off the table with the signing of Jimenez, the Orioles could be more inclined to pursue Morales as their DH..

Chris Capuano: The Mariners have “decent interest” in the lefthander, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Landing another pitcher may now be an even higher priority after it was learned that Hisashi Iwakuma may miss the start of the season with a strained tendon in the middle finger of his right hand.

Pedro Florimon: Pedro Florimon is expected to miss at least two weeks after suffering from appendicitis late Sunday night, but manager Ron Gardenhire insists the Twins shortstop is in no danger of losing his job.

Tyler Colvin: After being left at the altar by the Orioles last month, the light-hitting outfielder could end up signing with Baltimore after all.

Barry Zito: The lefthander is without a job, the 36-year-old hasn’t actively pursued one, either.

Colvin could still end up in Baltimore
February, 18, 2014
FEB 18
10:53
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
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After being left at the altar in January, could Tyler Colvin end up in Baltimore after all?

According to various reports, Colvin reached a deal with the Orioles last month, only to see the club back out over concerns with a back injury. But Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets there is a “good chance” the outfielder will end up signing with Baltimore when all is said and done.

Colvin would likely have to settle for a minor league deal after spending most of last season in Triple-A. He did appear in 27 games for the Rockies, hitting just .160 with a .192 OBP.
Tags:Tyler Colvin
Impact of Jimenez deal on Santana
February, 18, 2014
FEB 18
10:24
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
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A potential landing spot for Ervin Santana came off the board Monday when the Baltimore Orioles reportedly agreed to a four-year deal with Ubaldo Jimenez.

That leaves Santana as the top free agent starter left on the market, and one reason the righthander is still unemployed may be health. In Tuesday’s column, ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney says “Jimenez’s medical reports were regarded as relatively clean within the industry -- which is not the case with Ervin Santana.”

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported Sunday that Santana’s “salary demands have come down” and the Mariners, Yankees and Blue Jays were among the clubs displaying some degree of interest.

Santana is a good pitcher, but not an elite one – his career-best 3.24 ERA in 2013 followed an unsightly 5.16 mark a year before – so the righthander faces a buyer’s market.

The Yankees already have gone on a free agent spending spree that would have made George Steinbrenner proud, but Cafardo says it would not be a surprise if they “intensify” their efforts to add another starting pitcher. But signing Santana would be a luxury, not a necessity.

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos insists he is looking to add another starter, yet has no intention of overpaying. Now that the Orioles are out of the mix, the Blue Jays have some additional negotiating leverage.

As for the Mariners, there was a report from Jon Heyman of CBS Sports that the Mariners may have stepped up their pursuit of Chris Capuano. That can’t be good news for Santana if Seattle sees Capuano as a lower-priced alternative.
Tags:Ervin Santana
Morales still possible for Orioles?
February, 18, 2014
FEB 18
9:32
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
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Orioles owner Peter Angelos has been widely criticized this winter for failing to spend significant money on a free agent, a perception he at least altered with Monday’s reported four-year, $48 million deal with Ubaldo Jimenez.

Now that the checkbook is open, could Angelos find some cash for Kendrys Morales as well?

Landing a starting pitcher was a priority for the Orioles, but Buck Showalter’s club also could use another bat in the middle of the lineup. Prior to the deal with Jimenez, the Orioles have been mentioned as a serious suitor for Morales, who spent last season in Seattle and would fit nicely as a designated hitter in Camden Yards.

A huge cost of signing Jimenez is the loss of a first-round draft pick as compensation. Now that the first-round pick already is off the table, they “may as well toss out the second-rounder and sign Morales,” says Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com. Kubatko notes that Showalter prefers a full-time DH if available, and the best one still out there is Morales.

The signing of Jimenez will boost the Orioles’ payroll to around $100 million, so there still may be some room for Morales, whose price has presumably come down with spring training already under way. For the record, Morales has a .431 batting average and 1.177 OPS in 12 career games in Baltimore.

The stiffest competition for Morales could come from his most recent employer. “Don't rule out a return to the Mariners," Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweeted Monday. Morales turned down the Mariners’ $14.1 million qualifying offer after the season. The re-signing of Morales would provide some much-needed lineup production behind free agent signee Robinson Cano.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has more on what the Orioles might do following the deal for Jimenez:


Buster Olney
Jimenez signing keeps O’s in contention
"Now that the Orioles are invested in Jimenez and have sacrificed that first-round pick, they might as well consider some of the other unsigned big names: Nelson Cruz, who split time at DH and in left field, could help balance out a lineup. Morales could be their primary DH against right-handed pitching and share DH time against lefties with Wieters. Maybe even Stephen Drew, who could provide some protection at second base and third base. If Drew signs a two-year deal, he would give the Orioles a safety net at shortstop in the event Hardy walked away after this season."


Tags:Kendrys Morales
Capuano on Seattle's radar
February, 18, 2014
FEB 18
8:44
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
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The Seattle Mariners, who were among the teams interested in Ubaldo Jimenez, may have shifted their attention to lefthander Chris Capuano.

While a deal is not completed, Seattle has shown “decent interest” in Capuano, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Capuano was one of the teams linked to the Mariners in recent weeks, and their pursuit may have picked up after Jimenez reportedly agreed to a deal with Baltimore.

The 35-year-old Capuano was 4-7 with a 4.26 ERA for the Dodgers last season and has been seeking a two-year deal.

The Mariners also are looking to add a bat, and one report Monday said they could step up their efforts to re-sign Kendrys Morales. Landing another pitcher may now be an even higher priority after it was learned that Hisashi Iwakuma may miss the start of the season with a strained tendon in the middle finger of his right hand.

Capuano made a league-high 33 starts for the Dodgers in 2012 and could be a valuable innings-eater if healthy.
Tags:Chris Capuano
More leverage for Masterson?
February, 18, 2014
FEB 18
7:24
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
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The Cincinnati Reds may be closing in on a long-term deal with righthander Homer Bailey, a deal that could have a significant ripple effect on negotiations between Justin Masterson and the Cleveland Indians.

Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reported Monday Bailey and the Reds were negotiating a six-year deal that could be worth $100 million. The sides are headed for arbitration later this week with Bailey asking for $11.6 million and Reds offering only $8.7 million.

Any deal that goes down in Cincinnati could help set the market for Masterson and his negotiations with the Indians on a multi-year deal. The 28-year-old Masterson and the 27-year-old Bailey have put up similar numbers in recent years and both are eligible for free agency next winter. Masterson, who also has an arbitration hearing scheduled for this week, had a 3.45 ERA last season, slightly better than the 3.49 for Bailey.

Masterson filed for $11.8 million while the Indians countered at $8.05 million. Hoynes reports “there has been movement on both sides” on efforts to reach a one-year deal. Masterson and his agent are scheduled to leave for St. Petersburg, Fla. on Tuesday to prepare for Thursday’s arbitration case, and the pitcher said he would like to avoid the trip if possible.

An extension for Bailey would likely give Masterson some additional leverage and thin the free agent pitching market for next offseason that includes such notable names as Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields.
Tags:Homer Bailey, Justin Masterson
Florimon's job in no danger
February, 18, 2014
FEB 18
7:05
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
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Pedro Florimon is expected to miss at least two weeks after suffering from appendicitis late Sunday night, but manager Ron Gardenhire insists the Twins shortstop is in no danger of losing his job.

Veteran Jason Bartlett, who hasn't played since May 2012, was brought in to compete for a utility role and is not viewed as a contender for the starting job. "Bartlett is here to try and make the club, but Florimon is our shortstop,” Gardenhire told MLB.com.

The complete faith in Florimon is a mild surprise given he hit just .221 with a .281 OBP in his first season as the regular shortstop.
Tags:Pedro Florimon
Monday Roundup: Morales staying put?
February, 17, 2014
FEB 17
3:19
PM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
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When Kendrys Morales turned down the Seattle Mariners' $14.1 million qualifying offer a few months ago, it appeared that he was saying goodbye to the Pacific Northwest.

The market for the slugger, however, has not evolved to his liking, and a key culprit is the high cost of a draft pick that a signing club must surrender in return, as Dan Szymborski chronicled last week.

But could Morales end up staying in Washington State after all? “Don't rule out a return to the Mariners," tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, who hears that the interest of two other potential suitors may be fading. Cafardo hears that Orioles VP Dan Duquette “can't get the financial go-ahead” from owner Peter Angelos and that the Pirates won't part with the necessary draft pick.

There was plenty of buzz last week that the Mariners were not done spending, and the signing of Morales would provide some much-needed lineup production behind Robinson Cano.

Here’s a look at other rumors around the major leagues on Presidents’ Day:
Justin Masterson: With Homer Bailey closing in on a long-term deal with the Reds, a beneficiary could be the Indians’ Masterson, who has similar numbers and experience.
Carlos Gonzalez: CarGo was open to playing center field following the trade of Dexter Flower, but it might make sense to keep him in left.
Stephen Drew: The speculation of a possible return to Boston surfaced Sunday once Ryan Dempster announced he will not pitch in 2014, forfeiting the $13.25 million he was due in the final year of his pact with the Red Sox. That would seem to free up some money to spend on Drew, and Cafardo reports there is "dialogue” between Boras and the Red Sox.
Ervin Santana: The market may be picking up for the free agent righthander who reportedly has lowered his price. The market could include the Yankees, who may not be done spending.
Josh Willingham: The outfielder wants to finish his career in Minnesota, but the feeling may not be mutual.
Jason Heyward: Just because the Braves reached a long-term deal with Craig Kimbrel does not mean they will do the same with Heyward, says David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC.
Matt Garza: The pitcher says the bad timing of an offer from the Angels ended up with him landing in Milwaukee.
 
Homer Bailey and the Reds agree to 6 year, $105 million deal. Good for him. But I thought the Reds didn't have money and thats why they were trying to trade Brandon Phillips so they could keep Choo?
 
Last edited:
I think it's well known that they want to trade Brandon Phillips becaue he's not worth what he is getting paid and is getting the rep of being bad in the clubhouse.

I don't think Choo is worth what he got from the Rangers, but right now everyone is getting inflated deals, :lol

It's like the housing bubble.
 
ooIRON MANoo said:
I think it's well known that they want to trade Brandon Phillips becaue he's not worth what he is getting paid and is getting the rep of being bad in the clubhouse.

I don't think Choo is worth what he got from the Rangers, but right now everyone is getting inflated deals, :lol

It's like the housing bubble.
Click to expand...

I wonder how the bubble bursts in this case.
 
Th3RealF0lkBlu3s said:
I wonder how the bubble bursts in this case.
Click to expand...

Honestly, I don't know.

MLB is getting a ton of money from a medium that is on the cusp of being revamped.

Newspapers and Magazines are on life support right now. The way people consume television is also changing. The reason MLB and sports in general have received more money is because you can't get your sports a la carte, like you can with television (Netflix, Hulu).

Sports are keeping cable/satellite companies afloat. If you can get any game on MLB.tv, do you know how many people will cancel their cable bills?

If you can pay a flat fee to get every MLB game, every NBA game, every NFL game, etc. Would people pay for cable/satellite? Answer is no.

That is the way consumers are going though, and it can't be ignored. Cable/Satellite providers are giving sports leagues massive amounts of cash to keep live sports content exclusive to them.
 
Since all of this money is coming from tv deals I think the bubble bursts if the FCC really follows through with their plans and consider ending the blackout policy. Not only does the blackout policy prevent local channels from showing games if the game isn's sold out, but it stops cable/satellite/online subscription services from importing a signal from elsewhere and showing it. The blackout policy ends and teams aren't gonna get these huge tv deals anymore. 

Just using the Phillies as an example, they just signed a 25 year, $2.5 billion deal with Comcast. With the deal over 140 games are gonna be shown on CSN, so you're gonna need to get cable since Dish or DirecTV doesn't carry the channel. If the blackout policy ends, DirecTV and Dish subscribers can watch the games if they have the MLB package. Same thing with those that subscribe to MLB.tv. 

But you know all of the leagues, tv channels, etc are gonna donate a lot of money to politicians campaigns so they can keep making their money.
 
Do you know what the distribution is of households in Philly that have CSN?

In Houston, 60 percent of the market doesn't have our CSN and can't watch the Rockets and Astros. There are suburbs in Houston that can't even get Comcast, period. The whole situation is a mess.
 
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