Albert Pujols made history Tuesday night, becoming the 26th member of thr 500 Home Run Club. While it represents an impressive career achievement for the future Hall of Famer, any excitement around Pujols' 500th homer is a bit muted, given that it's a milestone eclipsed repeatedly in recent years.
And in the case of Pujols, it comes at a point in his career at which most of the coverage surrounding him has focused on his transformation from Albert Pujols, perennial MVP candidate, to Albert Pujols, ordinary first baseman. We should try and enjoy this one, however, as the decreased offense across the league is already having an impact on the offensive milestones we can expect to see over the next decade.
For Pujols, 500 was simply supposed to be a highlight on the way to challenging Ruth, Aaron and Bonds in that rareified air of legends with 700-plus HRs. His decline along with the decrease in offense throughout baseball has made this now a longshot candidacy. After the 2009 season, the ZiPS projection system had the mean expectation for the end of his career at 681 home runs. A year later, after the first season in what is now clearly a pitchers' era, that dropped to 673.
That number has continued to drop every season since, and was down to 626 before the start of the 2014 season. Pujols still has decent odds of hitting one more homer milestone at 600, but even with an excellent start to the 2014 season, it's highly unlikely that he'll see 700 on his future plaque. The lack of offensive milestones going forward won't just be limited to Pujols, however.
Here's a look at which current players have a chance at hitting some of baseball's most notable milestones.
500 home runs
The home run rate in baseball is now down nearly 15 percent from the 1999-2004 peak of 1.11 home runs per team per game. There's still an occasional 50-homer season, with Chris Davis and Jose Bautista both putting up such years in 2013 and 2011, respectively, but in the new reality, those types of figures are outliers. Go back a decade and the 10th-place home run hitters were around 40 a season; since 2010, Jay Bruce's 34 dingers is the most for a player finishing 10th in home runs.
From a career standpoint, we still haven't seen the full impact of the change of offense, simply because all of the active home run leaders had the majority of their careers before the 2010 season. As we enter the fifth season of lower offense, this is starting to be reflected in the projections, with ZiPS projecting only five active players (not including Alex Rodriguez or Pujols, both of whom have hit 500), to have a 50 percent shot at 500 (Miguel Cabrera, Adam Dunn, David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder). After the 2009 season, ZiPS projected 12 players to hit 500.
Looking at the younger generation, only two players, Giancarlo Stanton and Bruce, are a coin flip or better to even pass 400, a home run milestone that was once considered archaic but looks to become relevant in a game of baseball with fewer fly balls making it into the stands. Third place, Evan Longoria, currently projects to finish with a mere 367 HRs, a figure that would place him just 76th all time today.
While some players will no doubt beat their mean projections -- mean projections are just the middle mark of a wide array of expectations -- the record books look to breathe easier than they have in some time.
Best odds at 500 HR (current total)
Miguel Cabrera: 82 percent (366)
Adam Dunn: 57 percent (444)
Adrian Beltre: 53 percent (376)
David Ortiz: 51 percent (434)
Prince Fielder: 50 percent (287)
3,000 hits
ZiPS projects Cabrera to finish with more hits than any player currently active (3,449 projected) and Robinson Cano to pass the mark (3,039), but there is a lack of obvious candidates behind them. ZiPS now projects just three players under 30 to be more likely to pass 2,500 hits than not, including Andrew McCutchen, Starlin Castro and Mike Trout.
[+] EnlargeMiguel Cabrera
Jared Wickerham/Getty Images
Cabrera is a good bet to join the 500-homer, 3,000-hit club.
Players who come up early and get a good head start on the counting stats are some of the best contenders, but none of this generation's younger leaders through age 25 (Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman, Elvis Andrus and Delmon Young were all top 100 all-time through 25) look to be solid candidates at this point.
Best odds at 3,000 hits (current total)
Miguel Cabrera: 82 percent (2,00
Alex Rodriguez: 77 percent (2,939)
Adrian Beltre: 63 percent (2,434)
Robinson Cano: 51 percent (1,669)
Albert Pujols: 47 percent (2,370)
600 doubles
For those looking for some offensive milestones, there's a silver lining when it comes to two-base hits. While threats to Earl Webb's single-season record of 67 doubles have remained almost non-existent, we still live in a era in which the double remains a large part of a team's offense, with the drop-off in the league doubles rate being less than half that of the home run drop-off.
Looking at the percentage of hits in baseball that are doubles, the top 15 seasons have all been since 1998, with 2014 currently ranking 10th. The result is that even with offense dropping off considerably overall, the prominent place of the two-base hit in today's offenses leaves future players with a milestone that they can realistically target.
This feat is rarer than you think, as just 14 players in history have hit 600 doubles. For context, Pujols is the 26th member of the 500-dinger club. Of the 14 who have hit 500 doubles, 11 of them are in the Hall of Fame, with Craig Biggio likely to join them soon and Pete Rose and Barry Bonds out of the Hall of Fame for other reasons that we won't go into here. That number projects to grow rapidly, with Pujols, Cabrera, Cano, Beltre and Ortiz all projected to finish with at least 600 doubles.
They're not the only players with a shot, either, with Jimmy Rollins, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, A-Rod, Matt Holliday, Dustin Pedroia and David Wright all being projected to pass 550.
Best odds at 600 doubles (current total)
Albert Pujols: 91 percent (529)
Miguel Cabrera: 86 percent (417)
Robinson Cano: 77 percent (37
Adrian Beltre: 75 percent (49
David Ortiz: 60 percent (523)
300 wins
The demise of the 300-win pitcher is one of the oldest predictions in baseball, broken more often than the prediction that this is the year you'll keep to your New Year's resolution.
No individual pitcher today is projected to have a better shot at passing 300 than falling short, but this has always been the case. While 300 wins has seemingly become the standard that the Baseball Writers' Association of America uses for a pitcher to have a good shot at the Hall, that mark was never all that common. In a 50-year period from 1910-1960, only four 300-game winners debuted. The last four 300-game winners all debuted in a four-year period from 1984-1988.
If he can get his ERA under control -- and ZiPS remains optimistic that he'll at least be acceptable -- CC Sabathia remains a great candidate simply because of the wins he has in the bag, 207 before his 34th birthday. His projected 280 wins doesn't necessitate him being a star, as ZiPS is getting him to 280 wins by pitching like Jeremy Guthrie (75-74, 4.52 ERA in 1,239 remaining innings).
Next in ZiPS' projection comes Justin Verlander at 260 and Clayton Kershaw at 246. While the next group, Felix Hernandez, Madison Bumgarner, Mark Buehrle, Cliff Lee and Jon Lester all end up between 230 and 240, the odds are that at least one of them will get north of 280 (ZiPS says 60 percent chance one of them does it), close enough to hang on for a final push.
Best odds at 300 wins (current total)
CC Sabathia: 40 percent (207)
Justin Verlander: 28 percent (139)
Clayton Kershaw: 22 percent (7
Felix Hernandez: 18 percent (113)
Madison Bumgarner: 14 percent (51)