2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[jewbacca]

Wilson's stuff didn't look bad last night. Slider looked good and he was hitting 93. I wouldn't say he's lost it quite yet.

 

[GreenNGold89]

Catch and transfer rule is gone! Back to the normal rules. Thank you baseball gods

 

[elpablo21]

 

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

 

.

 

[elpablo21]

Catch and transfer rule is gone! Back to the normal rules. Thank you baseball gods

Good

 

[proshares]

Dude super concerned about the NYY thread lmao.

Pro- Do u have the top 25 under 25 available o.0?

My bad, been a little busy with a move. I meant to post it up yesterday.

MLB 25 Under 25 Rankings.

Spoiler

For the third straight year, I am ranking the top 25 players in MLB under the age of 25.

To qualify for this ranking, a player must be 24 years or younger as of today (April 24, 2014) and have exhausted his rookie eligibility. In other words, players who appeared on my preseason ranking of the top 100 prospects in MLB -- such as Xander Bogaerts and Nick Castellanos -- will not appear here.

To be clear: This is a ranking of how I would order these players if I were starting a franchise and would have them for the next several years, not just 2014.

And, because I am sure I will be asked, I also want to note that Matt Harvey and Chris Sale both turned 25 in late March, so they just missed qualifying.

For a look at last year's 25 under 25 ranking, please click here.


1Mike Trout
AGE: 22DOB: 8/7/91HT: 6-2WT: 230POS: CF
AVG .323OBP .432OPS .989HR 27SB 33WAR 9.2
Current: Are you surprised? With about 20 WAR across his first two seasons, Trout has had the greatest start to any career in the past half-century, and he is the majors' most valuable player, no matter what the MVP voters told you in November.

Future: Trout's performances to date leave us without good historical comparisons, but even if he settles in as a 7-8 WAR player each year, he'll remain one of the top players in either league for some time -- and he's young enough that he should be able to hold his value for at least the next five years, if not longer. The Angels were smart to lock him up for as long as they reasonably could.

LAST TIME: 1 | PLAYER CARD

2Bryce Harper
AGE: 21DOB: 10/16/92HT: 6-3WT: 225POS: OF
AVG .274OBP .368OPS .854HR 20SB 11WAR 3.8
Current: Harper is the Nationals' best player, which makes Matt Williams' frequent demotions of Harper to the sixth or seventh spot in the lineup even more mystifying -- and is cause to wonder whether Williams is up to the job of running the team if he can't even identify who his best hitter is.

Harper has accumulated more WAR through his age-20 season than all but five players in MLB history; three of them are in the Hall of Fame, and the others are Trout and A-Rod. Only two players hit more homers before their age-21 season: Mel Ott and Tony Conigliaro. Only Ott and Mickey Mantle drew more walks. I think the backlash against Harper, in addition to lacking any rational basis, has obscured what a remarkable start he's had to his career -- and he has every facet required to get better as he enters his early 20s.

Future: Harper's "slow start" this year -- sensible minds call it "random variation" -- ended with a bang, and he's back where he ought to be at the plate. Harper's going to win an MVP award or two, with a .400 OBP/30-35 homer season likely to come in the near future. The speed with which he's been able to make adjustments to major league pitchers is what marks him as a superlative talent, on whom it's fair to hang projections of future best-player-in-the-league status.

LAST TIME: 2 | PLAYER CARD

3Jose Fernandez
AGE: 21DOB: 7/37/92HT: 6-2WT: 242POS: RHP
IP 189.1K 187BB 58HR 10ERA 2.19WAR 6.3
Current: Fernandez, still in high school at this point three years ago, is among the top five pitchers in the National League already, with two plus pitches and rapidly improving command. Since the start of 2013, Fernandez has the highest strikeout rate (strikeouts/total batters faced) of any NL starter, and is behind only Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer MLB-wide.

Future: Fernandez has always had a mature body for his age, so what you see is largely what you'll get -- the stuff likely won't improve, but his command and control probably will. He'll be a Cy Young contender as soon as this year.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

4Andrelton Simmons
AGE: 24DOB: 9/4/89HT: 6-2WT: 170POS: SS
AVG .248OBP .296OPS .692HR 17SB 6WAR 6.7
Current: The best defensive player in baseball, Simmons rates at the top of the 20-80 scouting scale with his glove and his arm, and he has continued to exceed everyone's expectations, including Atlanta's, at the plate, thanks to high contact rates that have reached absurd proportions this year. Simmons has yet to strike out through 45 plate appearances, which has helped balance out his low walk rates because he's fast enough to create a few extra hits a year.

Future: Simmons' career to date at the plate looks a lot like some other well-regarded shortstops, including Ozzie Smith, Barry Larkin and Omar Vizquel, none of whom was much to write home about with the stick early in his career, but all of whom posted high contact rates from their rookie years. Simmons is a better defender than Vizquel and has more pop than Omar or Ozzie, but he does have to develop the patience Ozzie and Larkin found by their mid-20s. The downside here is a better-fielding Shawon Dunston, but the upside is a Hall of Fame-caliber shortstop who sparks debates over whether he or the Wizard is the best defensive shortstop of all time.

LAST TIME: 21 | PLAYER CARD

5Manny Machado
AGE: 21DOB: 7/6/92HT: 6-3WT: 185POS: SS/3B
AVG .283OBP .314OPS .746HR 14SB 6WAR 6.4
Current: Before a serious knee injury ended his 2013 season, Machado had established himself as the best third baseman in baseball and one of the most valuable defenders at any position. He became just the second player under the age of 21 to hit 50 doubles in a season, after his idol, Alex Rodriguez, although the rest of Machado's offensive game is a work in progress, from his patience to his home run power.

Future: If the knee injury doesn't rob him of any lateral agility, Machado should be able to return to shortstop, his natural position, and be above-average on defense there, as well. He's going to develop into a 25-30 home run hitter, and the patience he showed in the minors probably will return as he recovers from skipping Triple-A entirely in 2013.

LAST TIME: 7 | PLAYER CARD

6Giancarlo Stanton
AGE: 24DOB: 11/8/89HT: 6-6WT: 240POS: RF
AVG .249OBP .365OPS .845HR 24SB 1WAR 2.4
Current: We've got a handful of 80-power guys in the majors right now, including Harper, but Stanton might be the 80est of them all. He was the 10th-youngest player ever to hit his 100th career homer, even though he has missed a fair amount of time to injuries. Despite a long swing and some propensity to swing and miss, Stanton is still an above-average hitter because the contact he makes is consistently so hard that he has a career BABIP of .326. His only negatives right now are his trouble staying healthy and his defense in right field -- below average in 2013 based on UZR -- which has been worse than anticipated, perhaps because of all the knee trouble he's had.

Future: Stanton still has lots of areas for improvement -- defense, health, contact rates -- and, in a tiny (likely meaningless) sample this year, he's drawing walks at under half his rate from last year. A full season of a patient Stanton as he reaches his offensive peak years could look like .300/.390/.625, which would put him in the MVP discussion regardless of the season.

LAST TIME: 4 | PLAYER CARD

7Madison Bumgarner
AGE: 24DOB: 8/1/89HT: 6-5WT: 235POS: LHP
IP 201.1K 199BB 62HR 15ERA 2.77WAR 3.9
Current: Bumgarner has quietly become the Giants' best pitcher in the past 15 months, as Tim Lincecum has become a shadow of his former self and Matt Cain has lost enough off his fastball for Bumgarner to pass him. The big lefty has churned out three straight seasons that look similar: 201-208 innings pitched, 41-56 unintentional walks, 191-199 strikeouts, peaking at 3.9 WAR in 2013, with the best per-batter strikeout rate of his career. He has picked up where he left off last year through his first three starts in 2014.

Future: The Giants have handled Bumgarner carefully, as he ranks 20th among MLB starters in pitches thrown over 2011-13 (his three full years in the majors), so he shouldn't be any more fragile than your ordinary 24-year-old pitcher -- and it helps that he didn't throw a slider at all until his senior year of high school. I think there's another gear of command/control in here that brings him closer to 5.0 WAR per year, which would make him a top 5-10 starter in the league.

LAST TIME: 9 | PLAYER CARD

8Freddie Freeman
AGE: 24DOB: 9/12/89HT: 6-5WT: 225POS: 1B
AVG .319OBP .396OPS .897HR 23SB 1WAR 5.5
Current: Freeman seems to have established himself as an elite hitter for average, with high contact and line-drive rates, thanks to a smooth, repeatable swing and a great eye for recognizing pitches, especially changeups, so modest walk rates haven't kept him from being extremely valuable as a hitter -- on top of above-average defense at first. Among position players eligible for this list, only Trout has produced more offensive value (per FanGraphs) since the start of 2013.

Future: Freeman's .371 BABIP last year looked like a fluke, given his previous career high of .339 (in 2011), but he has maintained it through the first two weeks; only two hitters managed a .350 combined BABIP over the combined 2012-13 period, Trout and Andrew McCutchen, so Freeman would be in very select territory if he can even come close to his 2013 figure. He doesn't otherwise offer projection, and it's not a 30-homer swing, but perhaps he'll find another level as a potential batting-average leader who does more on contact than most hitters in baseball.

LAST TIME: 19 | PLAYER CARD

9Wil Myers
AGE: 23DOB: 12/10/90HT: 6-3WT: 205POS: RF
AVG .293OBP .354OPS .832HR 13SB 5WAR 2.0
Current: Last year's AL Rookie of the Year made a small swing adjustment in late April and never looked back, although his walk and strikeout rates have plenty of room for improvement. Myers is a good athlete for someone his size and should develop into an above-average defender in right, and, as you'd expect from a high school catcher, he has a plus arm, as well. His swing should produce plus power in time, as long as his approach improves to allow him to get to it. He's a 3-4 WAR player now, with the potential to be a 5-6 WAR guy in time.

Future: Myers has to tighten up his plate discipline, as he reached the majors more on strength and hand-eye coordination than on polish in his overall approach. He's gradually improving in the field, as well, and there's really no good reason he can't turn out to be worth five runs or more per year with his glove, the way Josh Reddick, who has a similar build to Myers' with a slightly narrower frame, has become a plus-10 defender with work. Myers is already the Rays' second-best hitter, and he gives them a much-needed second power threat to pair with Evan Longoria.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

10Michael Wacha
AGE: 22DOB: 7/1/91HT: 6-6WT: 210POS: RHP
IP 64.2K 65BB 19HR 5ERA 2.78WAR 1.7
Current: I've got Wacha listed here, over several pitchers with higher upsides, because the gossamer arms of young starters seem to break so easily at this point that the certainty of good performances from Wacha right now outweighs the chance of better performances from a less polished arm down the road. Wacha works with an above-average fastball and a plus-plus changeup, along with superb command. Now everyone's looking in this year's draft for the "next" Michael Wacha, even though 18 teams passed on him in 2012.

Future: The future is now -- as good as Wacha is, the only way he might get better would be to find a new pitch, adding a cutter (not necessary, really) or changing his curveball to make it more of a weapon against right-handers. But why change when the status quo is probably 200 innings of league-average or better performance for the next five seasons?

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

11Jason Heyward
AGE: 24DOB: 8/9/89HT: 6-5WT: 245POS: RF
AVG .254OBP .349OPS .776HR 14SB 2WAR 3.6
Current: Heyward can be maddening, as he has all-world talent but hasn't put everything together for a full season ... although he's also still 24 years old and has been on every iteration of this list that I've done. Heyward is a plus-plus defender in right with outstanding patience at the plate, and he shows plus power when his swing is right (not often) and his shoulder isn't barking. The reference point of his rookie season has colored everyone's impressions of Heyward's performance since then, but FanGraphs had him at 3.4 WAR last year in just 104 games, when only 10 players in the entire National League reached 5.0 WAR for the whole season.

Future: It's all here -- the power, the patience, the swing, the athleticism, the aptitude -- and one of these years he'll stay healthy for 150 games and do all of these things at once and win an MVP award and produce cold fusion and solve the Riemann hypothesis, too.

LAST TIME: 3 | PLAYER CARD

12Sonny Gray
AGE: 24DOB: 11/7/89HT: 5-11WT: 180POS: RHP
IP 64.0K 67BB 20HR 4ERA 2.67WAR 1.4
Current: Gray will stand tall as the counterexample to arguments that sub-6-foot right-handers can't be major league starters. He has adapted his approach to work down in the zone with his fastball, rather than trying to pitch up in the zone with maximum velocity, so he's now a ground ball pitcher who can still miss bats with his hook. Throwing slower by design sounds strange, but, in Gray's case, it has kept him out of the bullpen and in the rotation, where his competitiveness and feel for setting hitters up (setting them up to fail, that is) has him stepping in as Oakland's de facto ace.

Future: Unless Gray grows as he reaches his mid-20s -- and I speak from experience when I say that's not likely, Sonny -- his best chance to improve comes from the changeup, a pitch he has thrown about twice as often in 2014 as he did in 2013 (small sample size caveat applies). Gray's been almost twice as likely to walk a left-handed batter as to walk a right-handed one in his brief major league career, and lefties have hit nearly 75 percent of the extra-base hits he has allowed. Improving the changeup, which he should be able to do with repetitions, would be the way to fix that and make him at least a good No. 2 starter.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

13Gerrit Cole
AGE: 23DOB: 9/8/90HT: 6-4WT: 240POS: RHP
IP 117.1K 100BB 28HR 7ERA 3.22WAR 1.3
Current: A mid-90s fastball, a plus-plus changeup, a plus slider and the occasional two-seamer at 92-94: Cole has No. 1 starter stuff. Teaching him to pitch with it -- to command the fastball, to rely more on his off-speed weapons, to stay down in the zone -- is job one for the Pirates' coaching staff. His location wavers enough now that he'll give up more hard contact than you'd like to see, especially because his four-seamer tends to come in straight and up in the zone, but he'll miss a ton of bats with the slider and the change.

Future: I think Cole will end up at the top of the Pirates' rotation sooner rather than later and eventually become a top-five pitcher in the league, once he can make those adjustments to his command and pitching plan. He's a very good athlete who repeats his delivery well, so I believe he'll be able to do that, given enough repetitions in the majors and the immediate feedback he'll get when he fails to do so.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

14Yasiel Puig
AGE: 23DOB: 12/7/90HT: 6-2WT: 235POS: RF
AVG .319OBP .391OPS .925HR 19SB 11WAR 5.0
Current: That one crazy first month aside, Puig's been an above-average player but something less than a star: From July 1 through the end of last season, he hit .278/.366/.470. He's hardly the kind of player who deserves the back-and-forth media coverage he has received. (Except when he drives 118 mph; that doesn't get enough media coverage.) With incredible hand and wrist strength and surprising first-step quickness for someone built like a running back, Puig should continue to hit for average and power and could still turn into a legitimate All-Star in time.

Future: Puig has a few challenges ahead of him, the first of which is staying out of trouble that might get him benched or suspended. His plate discipline is fair, not awful but with room for improvement, and he sometimes seems to take plays or at-bats off mentally. He showed up out of shape this spring, much as he was overweight in the 2012 workout that led the Dodgers to sign him, and he can't afford to let his body go and lose his speed.

You can't teach this kind of wrist strength, though, and the fact that he can hit all kinds of pitching, with no clear weak spot at the plate, means he'll still provide value even when he's providing fodder for the muckraking crowd.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

15Julio Teheran
AGE: 23DOB: 1/27/91HT: 6-2WT: 200POS: RHP
IP 185.2K 170BB 45HR 22ERA 3.20WAR 3.2
Current: Teheran made significant strides in 2013 toward his No. 1 starter ceiling, mixing in more curveballs after a very fastball/changeup-heavy start to the season that saw him struggle to keep the ball down. He's still too slider-focused -- he gave up nine of his 22 home runs allowed in 2013 on the slider -- and his arm slot seems better suited to the curveball, but the slider gets more swings and misses for him, and he's a little bit caught between the two pitches. His fastball is plus already, up in the zone a little too often, but the velocity is very easy and he throws plenty of strikes with it. The changeup is his best pitch and his main weapon for keeping guys off the fastball, even though the change doesn't directly generate a lot of swings and misses.

Future: The development of either breaking ball into an above-average pitch is the next step for him, taking him from an above-average starter to an ace. Teheran was so effective at a young age that he reached the majors before he was a finished product, but he is still good enough to help Atlanta while he continues to mature as a pitcher, and he'll be at the top of the rotation in another year or two.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

16Christian Yelich
AGE: 22DOB: 12/5/91HT: 6-4WT: 197POS: LF
AVG .288OBP .370OPS .766HR 4SB 10WAR 1.4
Current: Possessor of one of the sweetest swings in the majors, Yelich has raked against right-handed pitching since reaching the majors last summer, hitting for average and doubles power with good walk and contact rates. Southpaws give him trouble, but he's had fewer than 600 pro plate appearances against them and has the swing and approach to improve against lefties in time. He's an above-average defender in an outfield corner, capable of handling center but with an arm that will limit him to left field.

Future: If Yelich does improve, as I expect, against left-handed pitching, he's a threat to lead the league in batting average and in OBP down the road, and I also foresee at least 20-homer power from him when he reaches his mid-20s. He flew through the minors and was young for every level where he played, so he's still learning on the job in the majors; in another organization, he probably wouldn't have made his debut until mid-2014.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

17Eric Hosmer
AGE: 24DOB: 10/24/89HT: 6-4WT: 220POS: 1B
AVG .302OBP .353OPS .801HR 17SB 11WAR 3.6
Current: Hosmer responded better than anyone else on the Royals when the team fired its hitting coach in May 2013, hitting .317/.365/.492 for the rest of the season thanks to some small changes to his hands and load that put him in better position to turn on and drive fastballs. He's a superb athlete and an above-average defender at first, so, although he hasn't reached the stardom I projected for him when he was a teenager, he's already a valuable every-day player.

Future: Hosmer still has room to grow at the plate, in power and in patience. He has long had the raw power to grow into a 30-homer hitter, but the 19 he hit in his rookie season remains his career high. He's also a more disciplined hitter than his OBP rates would indicate; he recognizes pitches, struggling with sliders but not with other types, and has had good walk and contact rates ever since he reached high Class A. I would have expected the big breakout to come by now, but Hosmer is still young and has had to go through so many hitting coaches that it's still plausible that the leap is coming.

LAST TIME: 24 | PLAYER CARD

18Zack Wheeler
AGE: 23DOB: 5/30/90HT: 6-4WT: 185POS: RHP
IP 100.0K 84BB 46HR 10ERA 3.42WAR 1.2
Current: Wheeler has more untapped potential than current value, showing big velocity and a plus slider but not the command to turn a lineup over three times without a few hiccups that cost him a few runs. His fastball has averaged 94 mph since he reached the majors, and he can rear back for 97-plus when he needs it. But, like teammate Matt Harvey, Wheeler has developed a new slider since joining the Mets that is his best swing-and-miss pitch. With the curveball and the changeup as show-me offerings, he has the raw materials to develop into at least a top-25 starter in the National League.

Future: That development might be a year or two away, as Wheeler is still working on command and control, as well as on finding the proper mix of his pitches; throwing more sliders isn't necessarily the answer. I think that, as his fastball command improves, everything else will fall into place, including more strikeouts and fewer extra-base hits allowed because he left something up. He won't be Matt Harvey, but he could be Harvey's almost-as-effective sidekick.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

19Martin Perez
AGE: 23DOB: 4/4/91HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SP
IP 124.1K 84BB 37HR 15ERA 3.62WAR 1.6
Current: Perez was a prospect at such a young age that his correct age -- he turned 23 earlier in April -- seems like a typo. He has an out-pitch changeup that has long earned him comparisons to a young Johan Santana, another Venezuelan southpaw who was very successful as a primarily fastball/changeup starter. Perez throws a slider as well as a curveball and has messed around with a cutter, although that last pitch hasn't appeared in a regular-season game yet. He's a third or fourth starter right now, a good bet to be league-average, with the potential to be much more.

Future: Finding one consistent third pitch, rather than throwing both and praying, is the key to Perez unlocking some of his upside, much as Julio Teheran faces the same challenge. That third pitch would help Perez miss more bats, as right now he succeeds by keeping the ball on the ground and throwing strikes -- a good formula for value but not for pitching as a viable No. 2 in a contender's rotation -- and would make him more effective against left-handed hitters.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

20Salvador Perez
AGE: 23DOB: 5/10/90HT: 6-3WT: 245POS: C
AVG .292OBP .361OPS .756HR 13SB 0WAR 4.1
Current: One of the best throwing catchers in the majors, Perez provides above-average offense for the position despite a morbid fear of drawing a walk, succeeding with strong contact rates and modest power. That fear of walks might be dissipating, however; in a tiny sample this year, Perez is more than a third of the way toward matching his full-season walk total from 2013. Opinions vary on the quality of his receiving, with framing metrics coming in below the scouting consensus on his ability with the glove.

Future: I doubt Perez will ever develop into a high-OBP player, but he has the hand-eye coordination to become a .290-plus hitter for average with 15 to 20 homers a year, which probably would make him a frequent All-Star and make the long-term deal the Royals gave him as a rookie one of the better bargains in the league.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

21Jean Segura
AGE: 24DOB: 3/17/90HT: 5-10WT: 204POS: SS
AVG .294OBP .329OPS .752HR 12SB 44WAR 3.9
Current: Segura might have set unrealistic expectations among Brewers fans with his huge start to last year; on May 15, 2013, Segura was hitting .359/.403/.592 with seven home runs in just 36 games, a power level he never projected to show in the majors. He hit just five homers the rest of the season with a .304 OBP, a dramatic fall-off that looks to me to be below his true talent level.

His best tools are his ability to make hard contact and to run, as he's a fringy defender at short and, despite the home run output last year, he has below-average power. His swing is geared toward line drives, and he has the speed to add some extra bases when he hits balls down the lines or into the gaps. However, he's never been a patient hitter (his seasonal high as a pro is 45 walks) and can't maximize the value of that speed when he's not getting on base.

Future: Segura can and should stay at short, even though he's not likely to be more than a neutral defender there; his value should come from .300-plus batting averages, high stolen base totals, and, one would hope, eventually some stronger OBPs. His 2013 homer total isn't likely to happen again, at least not soon, and the Brewers will be better off if they tell him to just worry about contact and forget trying to hit for power his body and swing don't really have.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

22Danny Salazar
AGE: 24DOB: 1/11/90HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: RHP
IP 52.0K 65BB 15HR 7ERA 3.1205WAR 1.2
Current: Salazar showed a plus-plus fastball/splitter combination last year, his first full season back from Tommy John surgery that had limited him to 87 innings the year before. Even with just an average slider, he appeared to have ace potential. Through three outings this year, however, Salazar's velocity is down about 2 mph versus his average in the majors last year, and it's unclear whether that's just early-season/small-sample noise or a sign that he won't maintain 95-96 for a full season.

Future: Readers who asked me before the 2014 season about Salazar's upside received answers such as "potential No. 1 starter," as anyone who has two pitches that can miss bats and who throws strikes is going to project at or near the top of most rotations. I don't mean to overreact to a tiny sample -- and Salazar is still striking guys out -- but losing a grade on the fastball isn't something I can just hand-wave away, even over a matter of just two starts.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

23Anthony Rizzo
AGE: 24DOB: 8/8/89HT: 6-3WT: 240POS: 1B
AVG .233OBP .323OPS .742HR 23SB 6WAR 2.6
Current: An enigma; Rizzo's swing is constantly changing, and, after it appeared to be straightened out last spring, he reverted back to some old, bad habits that cause him to struggle against lefties and generally make less contact than he should. He's an above-average to plus defender at first, has a good idea of the strike zone, and has 20-25 home run power as long as he can find a consistent setup and swing and stop tinkering with it.

Future: I retain a bit of stubborn optimism on Rizzo -- he's a future above-average regular at first, not a star, but better than he has shown us over the past year-and-a-half. I also feel more optimistic about Rizzo reaching his potential than I do about teammate Starlin Castro, who also qualifies for this ranking but who has only gone backward since his rookie season.

LAST TIME: 18 | PLAYER CARD

24Trevor Rosenthal
AGE: 23DOB: 5/29/90HT: 6-2WT: 190POS: RP
IP 75.1K 108BB 20HR 4ERA 2.63WAR 2.2
Current: One of the best one-inning relievers in baseball, Rosenthal is a converted infielder who has the stuff and durability to start, holding 97 mph deep into games when he was still in the minors. However, he's been blocked in St. Louis by the Cardinals' overrunning cup of starting pitchers. That which we call Rosenthal in any other role would be even sweeter, thanks to an above-average changeup, an average breaking ball and the overall athleticism to repeat his delivery 100 times in an outing. I can't blame St. Louis for putting him and Carlos Martinez in the pen, but it does mean there's more value here than meets the eye.

Future: This depends on the Cardinals' plans more than on Rosenthal, but I hope he at least gets an opportunity to return to the rotation in the next two years. He's at worst a potential midrotation guy -- league-average or slightly better, 180-plus innings -- with some upside if the changeup remains a swing-and-miss pitch even when he's turning a lineup over three times.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

25Jurickson Profar
AGE: 21DOB: 2/20/93HT: 6-0WT: 165POS: RF
AVG .234OBP .308OPS .644HR 6SB 2WAR 0.1
Current: Profar's on the DL right now with a torn teres major muscle (shoulder/back), an uncommon baseball injury but not one that should affect his career other than costing him some needed at-bats. Profar would have started the year as Texas' every-day second baseman and should reclaim that job once he's healthy. I had tabbed him as one of my breakout candidates coming into 2014, about a week before the injury occurred, as he's a good contact hitter whose .280 BABIP last year was unlikely to continue.

Future: Profar might play only half a season in 2014, but I expect at least above-average or better defense at second and a better batting average once he's 100 percent again. In time, he'll be one of the best middle infielders in the game, hitting for average, getting on base and showing more power than you'd expect from his frame.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
Others receiving votes (from me): Shelby Miller, Brad Miller, Tyler Skaggs, Nolan Arenado, Patrick Corbin, Mike Zunino, Starlin Castro, Robbie Erlin, Jacob Turner, Tony Cingrani, Nate Eovaldi.

 

[proshares]

BTW with the whole TJS article, it's mostly these kids getting absolutely destroyed by every idiotic college baseball manager out there. These kids are used like workhorses down there, it's unbelievable

 

[jewbacca]

BTW with the whole TJS article, it's mostly these kids getting absolutely destroyed by every idiotic college baseball manager out there. These kids are used like workhorses down there, it's unbelievable

The best and one of the most cited examples of this is Wayne Graham at Rice. I'm amazed they can even still recruit good pitchers after all the negative stigma associated with how they handle arms haha

 

[jewbacca]

According to an A&M message board, A-Rod is dating a student who is a fitness model. No pics yet, or I'd post them lol

 

[Cashflow]

ARod is collecting $23 million to road trip and prey on college underclassmen. The American Dream ladies and gentlemen.

 

[ooiron manoo]

 

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

 

.

Is this the Bartolo Colon filter?

 

[jewbacca]

Tigers just hit around and Cabrea was responsible for making all 3 outs. He grounded out and then grounded into a DP.

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

The A's have terrible defense this year. I don't know what made this happen.

 

[jewbacca]

The A's have terrible defense this year. I don't know what made this happen.

Great at bat by springer to end that inning by swinging and missing at 3 outside cutters in a row.

 

[GreenNGold89]

The A's have terrible defense this year. I don't know what made this happen.

The defense and base running are giving me grey hair.

 

[thekidgriffey24]

My bad, been a little busy with a move. I meant to post it up yesterday.

MLB 25 Under 25 Rankings.

Spoiler

For the third straight year, I am ranking the top 25 players in MLB under the age of 25.

To qualify for this ranking, a player must be 24 years or younger as of today (April 24, 2014) and have exhausted his rookie eligibility. In other words, players who appeared on my preseason ranking of the top 100 prospects in MLB -- such as Xander Bogaerts and Nick Castellanos -- will not appear here.

To be clear: This is a ranking of how I would order these players if I were starting a franchise and would have them for the next several years, not just 2014.

And, because I am sure I will be asked, I also want to note that Matt Harvey and Chris Sale both turned 25 in late March, so they just missed qualifying.

For a look at last year's 25 under 25 ranking, please click here.


1Mike Trout
AGE: 22DOB: 8/7/91HT: 6-2WT: 230POS: CF
AVG .323OBP .432OPS .989HR 27SB 33WAR 9.2
Current: Are you surprised? With about 20 WAR across his first two seasons, Trout has had the greatest start to any career in the past half-century, and he is the majors' most valuable player, no matter what the MVP voters told you in November.

Future: Trout's performances to date leave us without good historical comparisons, but even if he settles in as a 7-8 WAR player each year, he'll remain one of the top players in either league for some time -- and he's young enough that he should be able to hold his value for at least the next five years, if not longer. The Angels were smart to lock him up for as long as they reasonably could.

LAST TIME: 1 | PLAYER CARD

2Bryce Harper
AGE: 21DOB: 10/16/92HT: 6-3WT: 225POS: OF
AVG .274OBP .368OPS .854HR 20SB 11WAR 3.8
Current: Harper is the Nationals' best player, which makes Matt Williams' frequent demotions of Harper to the sixth or seventh spot in the lineup even more mystifying -- and is cause to wonder whether Williams is up to the job of running the team if he can't even identify who his best hitter is.

Harper has accumulated more WAR through his age-20 season than all but five players in MLB history; three of them are in the Hall of Fame, and the others are Trout and A-Rod. Only two players hit more homers before their age-21 season: Mel Ott and Tony Conigliaro. Only Ott and Mickey Mantle drew more walks. I think the backlash against Harper, in addition to lacking any rational basis, has obscured what a remarkable start he's had to his career -- and he has every facet required to get better as he enters his early 20s.

Future: Harper's "slow start" this year -- sensible minds call it "random variation" -- ended with a bang, and he's back where he ought to be at the plate. Harper's going to win an MVP award or two, with a .400 OBP/30-35 homer season likely to come in the near future. The speed with which he's been able to make adjustments to major league pitchers is what marks him as a superlative talent, on whom it's fair to hang projections of future best-player-in-the-league status.

LAST TIME: 2 | PLAYER CARD

3Jose Fernandez
AGE: 21DOB: 7/37/92HT: 6-2WT: 242POS: RHP
IP 189.1K 187BB 58HR 10ERA 2.19WAR 6.3
Current: Fernandez, still in high school at this point three years ago, is among the top five pitchers in the National League already, with two plus pitches and rapidly improving command. Since the start of 2013, Fernandez has the highest strikeout rate (strikeouts/total batters faced) of any NL starter, and is behind only Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer MLB-wide.

Future: Fernandez has always had a mature body for his age, so what you see is largely what you'll get -- the stuff likely won't improve, but his command and control probably will. He'll be a Cy Young contender as soon as this year.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

4Andrelton Simmons
AGE: 24DOB: 9/4/89HT: 6-2WT: 170POS: SS
AVG .248OBP .296OPS .692HR 17SB 6WAR 6.7
Current: The best defensive player in baseball, Simmons rates at the top of the 20-80 scouting scale with his glove and his arm, and he has continued to exceed everyone's expectations, including Atlanta's, at the plate, thanks to high contact rates that have reached absurd proportions this year. Simmons has yet to strike out through 45 plate appearances, which has helped balance out his low walk rates because he's fast enough to create a few extra hits a year.

Future: Simmons' career to date at the plate looks a lot like some other well-regarded shortstops, including Ozzie Smith, Barry Larkin and Omar Vizquel, none of whom was much to write home about with the stick early in his career, but all of whom posted high contact rates from their rookie years. Simmons is a better defender than Vizquel and has more pop than Omar or Ozzie, but he does have to develop the patience Ozzie and Larkin found by their mid-20s. The downside here is a better-fielding Shawon Dunston, but the upside is a Hall of Fame-caliber shortstop who sparks debates over whether he or the Wizard is the best defensive shortstop of all time.

LAST TIME: 21 | PLAYER CARD

5Manny Machado
AGE: 21DOB: 7/6/92HT: 6-3WT: 185POS: SS/3B
AVG .283OBP .314OPS .746HR 14SB 6WAR 6.4
Current: Before a serious knee injury ended his 2013 season, Machado had established himself as the best third baseman in baseball and one of the most valuable defenders at any position. He became just the second player under the age of 21 to hit 50 doubles in a season, after his idol, Alex Rodriguez, although the rest of Machado's offensive game is a work in progress, from his patience to his home run power.

Future: If the knee injury doesn't rob him of any lateral agility, Machado should be able to return to shortstop, his natural position, and be above-average on defense there, as well. He's going to develop into a 25-30 home run hitter, and the patience he showed in the minors probably will return as he recovers from skipping Triple-A entirely in 2013.

LAST TIME: 7 | PLAYER CARD

6Giancarlo Stanton
AGE: 24DOB: 11/8/89HT: 6-6WT: 240POS: RF
AVG .249OBP .365OPS .845HR 24SB 1WAR 2.4
Current: We've got a handful of 80-power guys in the majors right now, including Harper, but Stanton might be the 80est of them all. He was the 10th-youngest player ever to hit his 100th career homer, even though he has missed a fair amount of time to injuries. Despite a long swing and some propensity to swing and miss, Stanton is still an above-average hitter because the contact he makes is consistently so hard that he has a career BABIP of .326. His only negatives right now are his trouble staying healthy and his defense in right field -- below average in 2013 based on UZR -- which has been worse than anticipated, perhaps because of all the knee trouble he's had.

Future: Stanton still has lots of areas for improvement -- defense, health, contact rates -- and, in a tiny (likely meaningless) sample this year, he's drawing walks at under half his rate from last year. A full season of a patient Stanton as he reaches his offensive peak years could look like .300/.390/.625, which would put him in the MVP discussion regardless of the season.

LAST TIME: 4 | PLAYER CARD

7Madison Bumgarner
AGE: 24DOB: 8/1/89HT: 6-5WT: 235POS: LHP
IP 201.1K 199BB 62HR 15ERA 2.77WAR 3.9
Current: Bumgarner has quietly become the Giants' best pitcher in the past 15 months, as Tim Lincecum has become a shadow of his former self and Matt Cain has lost enough off his fastball for Bumgarner to pass him. The big lefty has churned out three straight seasons that look similar: 201-208 innings pitched, 41-56 unintentional walks, 191-199 strikeouts, peaking at 3.9 WAR in 2013, with the best per-batter strikeout rate of his career. He has picked up where he left off last year through his first three starts in 2014.

Future: The Giants have handled Bumgarner carefully, as he ranks 20th among MLB starters in pitches thrown over 2011-13 (his three full years in the majors), so he shouldn't be any more fragile than your ordinary 24-year-old pitcher -- and it helps that he didn't throw a slider at all until his senior year of high school. I think there's another gear of command/control in here that brings him closer to 5.0 WAR per year, which would make him a top 5-10 starter in the league.

LAST TIME: 9 | PLAYER CARD

8Freddie Freeman
AGE: 24DOB: 9/12/89HT: 6-5WT: 225POS: 1B
AVG .319OBP .396OPS .897HR 23SB 1WAR 5.5
Current: Freeman seems to have established himself as an elite hitter for average, with high contact and line-drive rates, thanks to a smooth, repeatable swing and a great eye for recognizing pitches, especially changeups, so modest walk rates haven't kept him from being extremely valuable as a hitter -- on top of above-average defense at first. Among position players eligible for this list, only Trout has produced more offensive value (per FanGraphs) since the start of 2013.

Future: Freeman's .371 BABIP last year looked like a fluke, given his previous career high of .339 (in 2011), but he has maintained it through the first two weeks; only two hitters managed a .350 combined BABIP over the combined 2012-13 period, Trout and Andrew McCutchen, so Freeman would be in very select territory if he can even come close to his 2013 figure. He doesn't otherwise offer projection, and it's not a 30-homer swing, but perhaps he'll find another level as a potential batting-average leader who does more on contact than most hitters in baseball.

LAST TIME: 19 | PLAYER CARD

9Wil Myers
AGE: 23DOB: 12/10/90HT: 6-3WT: 205POS: RF
AVG .293OBP .354OPS .832HR 13SB 5WAR 2.0
Current: Last year's AL Rookie of the Year made a small swing adjustment in late April and never looked back, although his walk and strikeout rates have plenty of room for improvement. Myers is a good athlete for someone his size and should develop into an above-average defender in right, and, as you'd expect from a high school catcher, he has a plus arm, as well. His swing should produce plus power in time, as long as his approach improves to allow him to get to it. He's a 3-4 WAR player now, with the potential to be a 5-6 WAR guy in time.

Future: Myers has to tighten up his plate discipline, as he reached the majors more on strength and hand-eye coordination than on polish in his overall approach. He's gradually improving in the field, as well, and there's really no good reason he can't turn out to be worth five runs or more per year with his glove, the way Josh Reddick, who has a similar build to Myers' with a slightly narrower frame, has become a plus-10 defender with work. Myers is already the Rays' second-best hitter, and he gives them a much-needed second power threat to pair with Evan Longoria.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

10Michael Wacha
AGE: 22DOB: 7/1/91HT: 6-6WT: 210POS: RHP
IP 64.2K 65BB 19HR 5ERA 2.78WAR 1.7
Current: I've got Wacha listed here, over several pitchers with higher upsides, because the gossamer arms of young starters seem to break so easily at this point that the certainty of good performances from Wacha right now outweighs the chance of better performances from a less polished arm down the road. Wacha works with an above-average fastball and a plus-plus changeup, along with superb command. Now everyone's looking in this year's draft for the "next" Michael Wacha, even though 18 teams passed on him in 2012.

Future: The future is now -- as good as Wacha is, the only way he might get better would be to find a new pitch, adding a cutter (not necessary, really) or changing his curveball to make it more of a weapon against right-handers. But why change when the status quo is probably 200 innings of league-average or better performance for the next five seasons?

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

11Jason Heyward
AGE: 24DOB: 8/9/89HT: 6-5WT: 245POS: RF
AVG .254OBP .349OPS .776HR 14SB 2WAR 3.6
Current: Heyward can be maddening, as he has all-world talent but hasn't put everything together for a full season ... although he's also still 24 years old and has been on every iteration of this list that I've done. Heyward is a plus-plus defender in right with outstanding patience at the plate, and he shows plus power when his swing is right (not often) and his shoulder isn't barking. The reference point of his rookie season has colored everyone's impressions of Heyward's performance since then, but FanGraphs had him at 3.4 WAR last year in just 104 games, when only 10 players in the entire National League reached 5.0 WAR for the whole season.

Future: It's all here -- the power, the patience, the swing, the athleticism, the aptitude -- and one of these years he'll stay healthy for 150 games and do all of these things at once and win an MVP award and produce cold fusion and solve the Riemann hypothesis, too.

LAST TIME: 3 | PLAYER CARD

12Sonny Gray
AGE: 24DOB: 11/7/89HT: 5-11WT: 180POS: RHP
IP 64.0K 67BB 20HR 4ERA 2.67WAR 1.4
Current: Gray will stand tall as the counterexample to arguments that sub-6-foot right-handers can't be major league starters. He has adapted his approach to work down in the zone with his fastball, rather than trying to pitch up in the zone with maximum velocity, so he's now a ground ball pitcher who can still miss bats with his hook. Throwing slower by design sounds strange, but, in Gray's case, it has kept him out of the bullpen and in the rotation, where his competitiveness and feel for setting hitters up (setting them up to fail, that is) has him stepping in as Oakland's de facto ace.

Future: Unless Gray grows as he reaches his mid-20s -- and I speak from experience when I say that's not likely, Sonny -- his best chance to improve comes from the changeup, a pitch he has thrown about twice as often in 2014 as he did in 2013 (small sample size caveat applies). Gray's been almost twice as likely to walk a left-handed batter as to walk a right-handed one in his brief major league career, and lefties have hit nearly 75 percent of the extra-base hits he has allowed. Improving the changeup, which he should be able to do with repetitions, would be the way to fix that and make him at least a good No. 2 starter.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

13Gerrit Cole
AGE: 23DOB: 9/8/90HT: 6-4WT: 240POS: RHP
IP 117.1K 100BB 28HR 7ERA 3.22WAR 1.3
Current: A mid-90s fastball, a plus-plus changeup, a plus slider and the occasional two-seamer at 92-94: Cole has No. 1 starter stuff. Teaching him to pitch with it -- to command the fastball, to rely more on his off-speed weapons, to stay down in the zone -- is job one for the Pirates' coaching staff. His location wavers enough now that he'll give up more hard contact than you'd like to see, especially because his four-seamer tends to come in straight and up in the zone, but he'll miss a ton of bats with the slider and the change.

Future: I think Cole will end up at the top of the Pirates' rotation sooner rather than later and eventually become a top-five pitcher in the league, once he can make those adjustments to his command and pitching plan. He's a very good athlete who repeats his delivery well, so I believe he'll be able to do that, given enough repetitions in the majors and the immediate feedback he'll get when he fails to do so.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

14Yasiel Puig
AGE: 23DOB: 12/7/90HT: 6-2WT: 235POS: RF
AVG .319OBP .391OPS .925HR 19SB 11WAR 5.0
Current: That one crazy first month aside, Puig's been an above-average player but something less than a star: From July 1 through the end of last season, he hit .278/.366/.470. He's hardly the kind of player who deserves the back-and-forth media coverage he has received. (Except when he drives 118 mph; that doesn't get enough media coverage.) With incredible hand and wrist strength and surprising first-step quickness for someone built like a running back, Puig should continue to hit for average and power and could still turn into a legitimate All-Star in time.

Future: Puig has a few challenges ahead of him, the first of which is staying out of trouble that might get him benched or suspended. His plate discipline is fair, not awful but with room for improvement, and he sometimes seems to take plays or at-bats off mentally. He showed up out of shape this spring, much as he was overweight in the 2012 workout that led the Dodgers to sign him, and he can't afford to let his body go and lose his speed.

You can't teach this kind of wrist strength, though, and the fact that he can hit all kinds of pitching, with no clear weak spot at the plate, means he'll still provide value even when he's providing fodder for the muckraking crowd.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

15Julio Teheran
AGE: 23DOB: 1/27/91HT: 6-2WT: 200POS: RHP
IP 185.2K 170BB 45HR 22ERA 3.20WAR 3.2
Current: Teheran made significant strides in 2013 toward his No. 1 starter ceiling, mixing in more curveballs after a very fastball/changeup-heavy start to the season that saw him struggle to keep the ball down. He's still too slider-focused -- he gave up nine of his 22 home runs allowed in 2013 on the slider -- and his arm slot seems better suited to the curveball, but the slider gets more swings and misses for him, and he's a little bit caught between the two pitches. His fastball is plus already, up in the zone a little too often, but the velocity is very easy and he throws plenty of strikes with it. The changeup is his best pitch and his main weapon for keeping guys off the fastball, even though the change doesn't directly generate a lot of swings and misses.

Future: The development of either breaking ball into an above-average pitch is the next step for him, taking him from an above-average starter to an ace. Teheran was so effective at a young age that he reached the majors before he was a finished product, but he is still good enough to help Atlanta while he continues to mature as a pitcher, and he'll be at the top of the rotation in another year or two.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

16Christian Yelich
AGE: 22DOB: 12/5/91HT: 6-4WT: 197POS: LF
AVG .288OBP .370OPS .766HR 4SB 10WAR 1.4
Current: Possessor of one of the sweetest swings in the majors, Yelich has raked against right-handed pitching since reaching the majors last summer, hitting for average and doubles power with good walk and contact rates. Southpaws give him trouble, but he's had fewer than 600 pro plate appearances against them and has the swing and approach to improve against lefties in time. He's an above-average defender in an outfield corner, capable of handling center but with an arm that will limit him to left field.

Future: If Yelich does improve, as I expect, against left-handed pitching, he's a threat to lead the league in batting average and in OBP down the road, and I also foresee at least 20-homer power from him when he reaches his mid-20s. He flew through the minors and was young for every level where he played, so he's still learning on the job in the majors; in another organization, he probably wouldn't have made his debut until mid-2014.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

17Eric Hosmer
AGE: 24DOB: 10/24/89HT: 6-4WT: 220POS: 1B
AVG .302OBP .353OPS .801HR 17SB 11WAR 3.6
Current: Hosmer responded better than anyone else on the Royals when the team fired its hitting coach in May 2013, hitting .317/.365/.492 for the rest of the season thanks to some small changes to his hands and load that put him in better position to turn on and drive fastballs. He's a superb athlete and an above-average defender at first, so, although he hasn't reached the stardom I projected for him when he was a teenager, he's already a valuable every-day player.

Future: Hosmer still has room to grow at the plate, in power and in patience. He has long had the raw power to grow into a 30-homer hitter, but the 19 he hit in his rookie season remains his career high. He's also a more disciplined hitter than his OBP rates would indicate; he recognizes pitches, struggling with sliders but not with other types, and has had good walk and contact rates ever since he reached high Class A. I would have expected the big breakout to come by now, but Hosmer is still young and has had to go through so many hitting coaches that it's still plausible that the leap is coming.

LAST TIME: 24 | PLAYER CARD

18Zack Wheeler
AGE: 23DOB: 5/30/90HT: 6-4WT: 185POS: RHP
IP 100.0K 84BB 46HR 10ERA 3.42WAR 1.2
Current: Wheeler has more untapped potential than current value, showing big velocity and a plus slider but not the command to turn a lineup over three times without a few hiccups that cost him a few runs. His fastball has averaged 94 mph since he reached the majors, and he can rear back for 97-plus when he needs it. But, like teammate Matt Harvey, Wheeler has developed a new slider since joining the Mets that is his best swing-and-miss pitch. With the curveball and the changeup as show-me offerings, he has the raw materials to develop into at least a top-25 starter in the National League.

Future: That development might be a year or two away, as Wheeler is still working on command and control, as well as on finding the proper mix of his pitches; throwing more sliders isn't necessarily the answer. I think that, as his fastball command improves, everything else will fall into place, including more strikeouts and fewer extra-base hits allowed because he left something up. He won't be Matt Harvey, but he could be Harvey's almost-as-effective sidekick.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

19Martin Perez
AGE: 23DOB: 4/4/91HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SP
IP 124.1K 84BB 37HR 15ERA 3.62WAR 1.6
Current: Perez was a prospect at such a young age that his correct age -- he turned 23 earlier in April -- seems like a typo. He has an out-pitch changeup that has long earned him comparisons to a young Johan Santana, another Venezuelan southpaw who was very successful as a primarily fastball/changeup starter. Perez throws a slider as well as a curveball and has messed around with a cutter, although that last pitch hasn't appeared in a regular-season game yet. He's a third or fourth starter right now, a good bet to be league-average, with the potential to be much more.

Future: Finding one consistent third pitch, rather than throwing both and praying, is the key to Perez unlocking some of his upside, much as Julio Teheran faces the same challenge. That third pitch would help Perez miss more bats, as right now he succeeds by keeping the ball on the ground and throwing strikes -- a good formula for value but not for pitching as a viable No. 2 in a contender's rotation -- and would make him more effective against left-handed hitters.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

20Salvador Perez
AGE: 23DOB: 5/10/90HT: 6-3WT: 245POS: C
AVG .292OBP .361OPS .756HR 13SB 0WAR 4.1
Current: One of the best throwing catchers in the majors, Perez provides above-average offense for the position despite a morbid fear of drawing a walk, succeeding with strong contact rates and modest power. That fear of walks might be dissipating, however; in a tiny sample this year, Perez is more than a third of the way toward matching his full-season walk total from 2013. Opinions vary on the quality of his receiving, with framing metrics coming in below the scouting consensus on his ability with the glove.

Future: I doubt Perez will ever develop into a high-OBP player, but he has the hand-eye coordination to become a .290-plus hitter for average with 15 to 20 homers a year, which probably would make him a frequent All-Star and make the long-term deal the Royals gave him as a rookie one of the better bargains in the league.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

21Jean Segura
AGE: 24DOB: 3/17/90HT: 5-10WT: 204POS: SS
AVG .294OBP .329OPS .752HR 12SB 44WAR 3.9
Current: Segura might have set unrealistic expectations among Brewers fans with his huge start to last year; on May 15, 2013, Segura was hitting .359/.403/.592 with seven home runs in just 36 games, a power level he never projected to show in the majors. He hit just five homers the rest of the season with a .304 OBP, a dramatic fall-off that looks to me to be below his true talent level.

His best tools are his ability to make hard contact and to run, as he's a fringy defender at short and, despite the home run output last year, he has below-average power. His swing is geared toward line drives, and he has the speed to add some extra bases when he hits balls down the lines or into the gaps. However, he's never been a patient hitter (his seasonal high as a pro is 45 walks) and can't maximize the value of that speed when he's not getting on base.

Future: Segura can and should stay at short, even though he's not likely to be more than a neutral defender there; his value should come from .300-plus batting averages, high stolen base totals, and, one would hope, eventually some stronger OBPs. His 2013 homer total isn't likely to happen again, at least not soon, and the Brewers will be better off if they tell him to just worry about contact and forget trying to hit for power his body and swing don't really have.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

22Danny Salazar
AGE: 24DOB: 1/11/90HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: RHP
IP 52.0K 65BB 15HR 7ERA 3.1205WAR 1.2
Current: Salazar showed a plus-plus fastball/splitter combination last year, his first full season back from Tommy John surgery that had limited him to 87 innings the year before. Even with just an average slider, he appeared to have ace potential. Through three outings this year, however, Salazar's velocity is down about 2 mph versus his average in the majors last year, and it's unclear whether that's just early-season/small-sample noise or a sign that he won't maintain 95-96 for a full season.

Future: Readers who asked me before the 2014 season about Salazar's upside received answers such as "potential No. 1 starter," as anyone who has two pitches that can miss bats and who throws strikes is going to project at or near the top of most rotations. I don't mean to overreact to a tiny sample -- and Salazar is still striking guys out -- but losing a grade on the fastball isn't something I can just hand-wave away, even over a matter of just two starts.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

23Anthony Rizzo
AGE: 24DOB: 8/8/89HT: 6-3WT: 240POS: 1B
AVG .233OBP .323OPS .742HR 23SB 6WAR 2.6
Current: An enigma; Rizzo's swing is constantly changing, and, after it appeared to be straightened out last spring, he reverted back to some old, bad habits that cause him to struggle against lefties and generally make less contact than he should. He's an above-average to plus defender at first, has a good idea of the strike zone, and has 20-25 home run power as long as he can find a consistent setup and swing and stop tinkering with it.

Future: I retain a bit of stubborn optimism on Rizzo -- he's a future above-average regular at first, not a star, but better than he has shown us over the past year-and-a-half. I also feel more optimistic about Rizzo reaching his potential than I do about teammate Starlin Castro, who also qualifies for this ranking but who has only gone backward since his rookie season.

LAST TIME: 18 | PLAYER CARD

24Trevor Rosenthal
AGE: 23DOB: 5/29/90HT: 6-2WT: 190POS: RP
IP 75.1K 108BB 20HR 4ERA 2.63WAR 2.2
Current: One of the best one-inning relievers in baseball, Rosenthal is a converted infielder who has the stuff and durability to start, holding 97 mph deep into games when he was still in the minors. However, he's been blocked in St. Louis by the Cardinals' overrunning cup of starting pitchers. That which we call Rosenthal in any other role would be even sweeter, thanks to an above-average changeup, an average breaking ball and the overall athleticism to repeat his delivery 100 times in an outing. I can't blame St. Louis for putting him and Carlos Martinez in the pen, but it does mean there's more value here than meets the eye.

Future: This depends on the Cardinals' plans more than on Rosenthal, but I hope he at least gets an opportunity to return to the rotation in the next two years. He's at worst a potential midrotation guy -- league-average or slightly better, 180-plus innings -- with some upside if the changeup remains a swing-and-miss pitch even when he's turning a lineup over three times.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD

25Jurickson Profar
AGE: 21DOB: 2/20/93HT: 6-0WT: 165POS: RF
AVG .234OBP .308OPS .644HR 6SB 2WAR 0.1
Current: Profar's on the DL right now with a torn teres major muscle (shoulder/back), an uncommon baseball injury but not one that should affect his career other than costing him some needed at-bats. Profar would have started the year as Texas' every-day second baseman and should reclaim that job once he's healthy. I had tabbed him as one of my breakout candidates coming into 2014, about a week before the injury occurred, as he's a good contact hitter whose .280 BABIP last year was unlikely to continue.

Future: Profar might play only half a season in 2014, but I expect at least above-average or better defense at second and a better batting average once he's 100 percent again. In time, he'll be one of the best middle infielders in the game, hitting for average, getting on base and showing more power than you'd expect from his frame.

LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
Others receiving votes (from me): Shelby Miller, Brad Miller, Tyler Skaggs, Nolan Arenado, Patrick Corbin, Mike Zunino, Starlin Castro, Robbie Erlin, Jacob Turner, Tony Cingrani, Nate Eovaldi.

Am I the only one that would take players 3-10 over Harper? I think that dude is beyond overrated tbh. Besides that, Jose Fernandez is a top 10 pitcher, probably top 5 right now.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

Tim Hudson allowed his 1st walk of the Season 4th longest since 1914

 

[jewbacca]

Harper isn't overrated. His ceiling is ridiculously high. He's 21 year old, most people wouldn't be in the majors at this point and be has a 3 and 5 WAR season under his belt.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

Pablo Sandoval is 0-40 in 2 strikes

 

[mr marcus]

Harper isn't overrated. His ceiling is ridiculously high. He's 21 year old, most people wouldn't be in the majors at this point and be has a 3 and 5 WAR season under his belt.

Idk what war means but I agree with everything else lol

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

A's are lucky to have ****ed up against the Astros tonight.

 

[trueprada]

 

[proshares]

Harper isn't overrated. His ceiling is ridiculously high. He's 21 year old, most people wouldn't be in the majors at this point and be has a 3 and 5 WAR season under his belt.

Idk what war means but I agree with everything else lol

Yea, I don't really know how to respond to guys saying he's overrated. Just because he's not on Trout's level so far, doesn't mean he's not living up to the hype. They're both having unprecedented starts to their careers.

 

[mez 0ne]

Harper is a good player and I can understand why you would say he's overrated, but he is still only 21 years old. .270 BA 20HR a year and good defense in the outfield is solid.

...then again MLB has commercials of him saying he is already playing like a legend, it's comical to me.

 

[frink85]

Re: pitcher overuse and max effort fastballs, isn't it that breaking balls/sliders and the torque needed are considered the main culprit for these injuries? I would imagine its overuse and effort needed on these pitches

Not to mention tommy johns point about overuse as children, and probably leagues that don't have rules on breaking balls and coaches abusing them

 

[proshares]

Harper's start to his career has been historic. If you think he's overrated then IMO, it's speaking from the belief that an batting average under .300 and a low number of RBI's automatically = you are not living up to expectations. Using those kinda stats as a barometer, you're setting yourself up for failure.

frink85 Gotta go with what Dr. Andrews is saying because he's a lot more informed than we all are. A huge part of it is the pitching year round and the overwork at the high school and college level. I'll see if I can find the article but there's a kid who was the favorite for #1 this year (Rodon is his name). Now he's not even considered because his arm issues and velocity issues are big concerns. Kid has been pitching on one day rest for most of last year and this year he had one game where he threw 118 pitches and the manager threw him back out there a day later and had him throw 80.

It's also on the parents too. Parents RARELY step in and tell a coach to not overuse their kid and abuse their kids arms by forcing them to learn a pitch they'll never master (the curve).

Breaking balls have to do with it as well, that is true. It's being forced on kids who are 12-13 and who honestly don't have it. If a kid doesn't have it to throw a slider/cutter/curve, you keep making him throw it incorrectly, it's going to destroy their elbow. Curves especially. You can teach a slider or cutter to an extent. Curves are built in the wrist. You have it or you don't and you know right away. It's why more kids should learn change ups or split fingered if they have big enough hands.

Edit - I was wrong about the pitches and the days, it was in one game. But still

Those of you who follow me on Twitter saw me voice my displeasure over NC State's usage of left-hander Carlos Rodon, the best college player in this year's draft class, on Friday night. Rodon, who has pitched with a 50- or 55-rated fastball all year, was going on short rest on Friday, but showed up (paradoxically) with more velocity, sitting at 92-94 mph and touching 96.

NC State then decided to push Rodon to 134 pitches, sending him back out to start his final inning after he'd already thrown 118 pitches, an acceptable, if upper-bound, number for a 21-year-old pitcher. This was a clear example of a coaching staff putting their own interests over those of a pitcher, a perfect example of moral hazard at work in amateur baseball, one that calls for regulation by the NCAA.

The Wolfpack, despite having two of the best college players in the country this year, are 5-11 in the ACC so far (19-14 overall) and in danger of missing the NCAA tournament, a result that would be devastating given their talent level. The potential cost of missing the tournament is so high that the coaching staff has the incentive to try to win at all costs, including asking players to do things that may not be in their own best interests, such as throwing 134 pitches in one outing. Only one MLB pitcher did that in all of 2013: Tim Lincecum, in his July 13 no-hitter. (In fact, since the start of the 2010 season, only four MLB pitchers have thrown 134 or more pitches. Three were no-hitters, one was Brandon Morrow's 17-strikeout one-hitter in 2010, and all four spread those pitches over nine innings rather than Rodon's 7 2/3 innings.)

Rodon has a potential $6-7 million payday in front of him, and putting him at any risk like this, real or perceived, is wrong. The reaction within the industry, among sources with whom I've spoken, was unanimously negative. Rodon shouldn't have been sent back out for the eighth inning, period.

I hope there are no ill effects from this kind of outing, but it is inevitable that we will eventually see a pitcher used too heavily in his draft year and then blow out shortly thereafter, costing him a large payday. Causality is irrelevant at that point; the mere perception of misuse will lead to serious consequences -- from recruiting to a potential lawsuit -- for the coaching staff in question. That may be what it takes to get the NCAA involved to put a stop to this kind of nonsense.