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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
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The shift is killing McCann plus he still runs extremely slow
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How the hell do the Pirates bat Snider in at leadoff?
Was at the Yankee games today, sitting right up on the RF wall. Bleachers heckling him all game long. Calling him Apple Snider and singing "Snider-man, Snider-man, does whatever a snider can"
.
Was at the Yankee games today, sitting right up on the RF wall. Bleachers heckling him all game long. Calling him Apple Snider and singing "Snider-man, Snider-man, does whatever a snider can"
.
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Oakland with their 5th sweep this season, and outscores the tribe 30-6 in the process. 
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Easier said than done but if a young kid like Rizzo who has had to pretty much remake his swing/stance can learn to beat the shift consistently, established vets like McCann and Tex should be able to as well. But, they're stuck in that "swing for the fences" mode every time they're up to the plate.
Ausmus' impact on Tigers' basepaths.
Blue Jays should trade for Samardzija.
The market for Jeff Samardzija.
BOSTON -- From the first day of spring training, the Detroit Tigers players say, Brad Ausmus talked about the running game.
But not only the running game of the Detroit baserunners, who were told to look for opportunities to take a base when they see it. Ausmus also wanted his pitchers to think more about the running game.
When pitchers threw their bullpen sessions in the spring, about a third of their work was done from the stretch, Alex Avila recalled. They simulated situations in which there was a runner at first, or first and third. They worked on varying their delivery times to the plate and on throwing to first base.
Last year, opposing teams ran aggressively against the Tigers. Detroit allowed 128 steals in 157 attempts, a staggering rate of 81.5 percent, which ranked 29th in the majors. Only two teams allowed more stolen bases.
This season, the Tigers have allowed 27 steals in 42 attempts, and their 35.7 percent rate of nabbing runners ranks fifth in the majors.
The pitchers have bought in to slowing down opposing runners, said Ausmus. That includes Anibal Sanchez, particularly, after he's had a lot of trouble with stolen bases in the past. Last year, Sanchez allowed 25 steals in 26 attempts.
This year, Sanchez's numbers aren't much better (six steals allowed in seven attempts), but Avila feels he’s throwing better, and has put in the work to improve. “Throwing out runners is a two-way street,” said Avila.
The Tigers added Rajai Davis and Ian Kinsler during the offseason, and so it was inevitable that Detroit would run more and steal more bases. The Tigers’ baserunners generally have a green light to run, other than when they get a hold sign from the bench, and Torii Hunter believes the Detroit baserunners are assuming a natural aggressiveness.
Detroit leads the AL in steals with 36 -- one more than all of last season, when the Tigers finished last in MLB.
More on the Red Sox, Tigers
• The Boston Red Sox players have a strong sense of what it takes to win, after going from worst to first last season, and there is deep unhappiness with the team’s situational play right now. They feel like they should be taking advantage of those opportunities to move runners in close games, given the team’s dip in power production this season, and given Boston’s own strong pitching. The Red Sox currently rank 15th in runs, after leading the majors -- by far -- in 2013.
• The sands in the hourglass continue to slide away in the time remaining for the Red Sox to sign Jon Lester to a long-term extension. Clayton Kershaw set the very top of the market when he got a $215 million deal in the offseason, but the fairer comparables for Lester might be Cole Hamels, who got $144 million from the Philadelphia Phillies a few months before he was set to hit the market as a free agent, or Matt Cain, who got a five-year, $112.5 million extension in the spring before his free-agent fall.
The Red Sox offered Lester $70 million over four years earlier this year, and while Lester has mentioned that he’d like to stay in Boston, there is typically a time in the baseball calendar when it makes more sense for a prospective free agent to simply wait until he can hit the market.
If Boston intends to make a stronger offer to the 30-year-old Lester, who is off to the best start of his career, then it makes absolutely no sense to wait before presenting the upgraded proposal. The Phillies took a similar approach with Hamels a couple of years ago, coming in with a very low offer initially, and with Hamels pitching well as he neared free agency, the Phillies surrendered completely and made a deal for about 75 percent more than their initial offer.
[+] EnlargeJon Lester
Abelimages/Getty Images
If the Red Sox have another offer for Jon Lester, it would behoove them to put it on the table soon.
There is a clear middle ground in the Lester talks -- for about five years and $110 million, that place between what Boston offered and what Hamels got -- and if the Red Sox decide they are willing to go there, they should offer now rather than later in the summer. This is because there could be a day when Lester and his representatives decide to wait for free agency, and Lester would probably rank with Max Scherzer as the best available.
Keep in mind, as well, that the Red Sox have contractual commitments to exactly one player beyond 2015: Dustin Pedroia. Unlike the Angels, Tigers and Yankees, they have a lot of financial flexibility.
• Scherzer is known for never wanting to back away from a challenge, for being hyper-competitive, and so far, his bet on himself -- after he turned down a $144 million offer in the spring -- looks good, given his league-best 1.83 ERA and 73 strikeouts.
But another Tiger is putting himself in position to cash in in a big way. Rick Porcello is showing a much improved slider, and because he broke in at such an early age, it’s easy to forget how young he is (25). Porcello will be eligible for free agency after the 2015 season at age 26, and he just keeps on getting better and better. He shut down the Red Sox on Saturday.
From the Elias Sports Bureau: Porcello is the fifth Tigers pitcher in the past 65 seasons to win seven of his first eight starts of a season. The others were Doyle Alexander in 1987 (7-0), Mark Fidrych in 1976 (7-1), Mickey Lolich in 1972 (7-1), and Denny McLain in 1966 (7-1).
• Sanchez’s changeup has a ton of movement, so much so that Avila says he has no idea which way it will break. Typically, the changeup of a right-handed pitcher will fade low and away from left-handed hitters, down and in to right-handed hitters. But Sanchez’s will sometimes cut, or go straight down. Avila will set up in the middle of the plate, rather than sit on a corner and create a target, and catch the ball in whatever direction it goes.
Sanchez will start for the Tigers on "Sunday Night Baseball" against the Red Sox (8 ET on ESPN and WatchESPN), and Detroit will be careful with him, Rod Beard writes.
• Miguel Cabrera was hitting .206 on April 21, in keeping with what Hunter predicted back in spring training. Cabrera had abdominal surgery after last season, and Hunter had the same kind of surgery after the 2009 season. Hunter recalled how it took him months to get comfortable using the lower half of his body again in his swing, and related this to Cabrera back in February, telling him that he probably wouldn’t feel 100 percent until July.
Miguel Cabrera Through May 17
2012 2014
BA .305 .305
HR 8 7
RBI 33 37
Triple Crown? Yes ?
MVP? Yes ?
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Cabrera seems to be ahead of that projection now. As he has integrated the lower half of his body more and more with his swing, he has stopped chopping grounders, and he has started driving the ball: Cabrera is hitting .350 in May, with five homers and 22 RBIs.
From ESPN Stats & Information: Cabrera is starting to heat up, and while he hasn't been a wrecking ball yet this season, his numbers are almost identical to those at this same point two seasons ago, when he won the Triple Crown and MVP, as seen in the table to the right.
• Will Middlebrooks broke his right index finger, and is again on the disabled list. A sizeable portion of the Boston organization would welcome back Stephen Drew, writes John Tomase.
At this point, the earliest that Drew and Kendrys Morales will be playing is probably late June.
By the way: MLB’s investigation of the comments made in my April 9 column about Drew and Morales is progressing, with employees being asked to explain details of their contact with this reporter. Just a rule of thumb: Reporters talk to a lot of people about a lot of things.
Around the league
• The hits just keep on coming for the Texas Rangers: Prince Fielder missed Saturday’s game because of a neck problem.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks' hiring of Tony La Russa to oversee the baseball operations department means another change of direction for Arizona.
Ken Kendrick, the team’s managing general partner, is notoriously impatient, which has a better chance of working if the club payroll is one of the highest -- a la George Steinbrenner and the Yankees -- because the inevitable mistakes of aggression can be papered over.
But the Diamondbacks have typically ranked among MLB’s bottom half in payroll -- this year, they are 11th, at $113 million -- and when Kendrick's frustration spills over, which is often, the ripples force change. That was evident when he criticized Justin Upton in a radio interview during the 2012 season, which was taken by rival organizations as a sure sign that Upton was going to be traded; eventually, the Diamondbacks swapped Upton at a discount price.
Arizona made the playoffs in 2007, but missed the postseason when the Manny Ramirez-fueled Dodgers passed them late in 2008, and Josh Byrnes was fired during the 2010 season. Kevin Towers was hired following the 2010 campaign, and in the three seasons since then, Arizona won 94, 81 and 81 games, which means that Towers is effectively losing his job without having a losing season. (Arizona is 17-28 this season, and 15 games over .500 overall during Towers’ tenure).
In April, Kendrick told the Arizona Republic that he wanted someone in his front office steeped in sabermetric analysis, and the great irony is that Byrnes has a reputation for excellence in that. Now Kendrick is bringing in La Russa, who isn’t a numbers guy. So go figure.
From Nick Piecoro’s story:
The Diamondbacks were thrilled to be able to add someone of La Russa's pedigree, but the move clearly was spurred by the team's disappointing start. Despite a franchise record payroll of more than $110 million, the Diamondbacks entered Saturday's game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 16-28 and were 11 1/2 games out of first place in the National League West. They finished at exactly .500 in each of the past two seasons.
"We have a tough situation that he's entering," Diamondbacks Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick said. "We don't expect any one person can change this overnight. It took us a while to get where we are, it'll take us a while to change it. We have the right guy at the right time, and we're really delighted and honored to have Tony join us."
Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said the organization needs to add talent throughout, particularly on the pitching staff, which has underperformed both in the rotation and the bullpen. He also said the club's prospect depth has been drained.
"I think a few years ago we were positioned well with prospects," Hall said. "We made moves -- and it's not just KT, it's all of us -- (a) let's try to win it now mentality."
The first question that will face La Russa will be if and when the Diamondbacks will wave a white flag on the 2014 season. But no matter what happens going forward -- and personally, I think the Diamondbacks should start thinking of themselves as a West Coast version of the Tampa Bay Rays, rather than worrying about competing with the Dodgers -- Kendrick needs to stick to a plan and let his people do their work. The buck stops with him, and the instability that has marked recent seasons begins with his management of the club.
The D-backs delivered a much-needed jolt, writes Dan Bickley.
Arizona routed Kershaw and the Dodgers on Saturday.
• Danny Duffy flirted with perfection, writes Andy McCullough.
• Scott Kazmir was ejected and isn’t sure why, but Oakland won anyway.
• Kershaw seems to have a curveball problem, Mark Saxon writes. Fascinating.
From ESPN Stats & Information, how Kershaw lost:
A. He threw 56 percent of his pitches for strikes, his worst rate in any start since 2011.
B. Batters hit .600 (3-for-5) in at-bats ending in his fastball, his second-worst rate since 2009.
C. Hitters had a hard-hit ball in 36.4 percent of their at-bats vs. Kershaw, his fourth-highest rate in the past six seasons, and highest since 2010.
• John Russell took over the Orioles for a day, with Buck Showalter attending his son’s graduation from law school.
• Victor Martinez is off to a start akin to what Joe DiMaggio had, John Lowe writes.
• A pivotal call went against the Giants, and prompted the Marlins to give the game ball to someone not in uniform.
Dings and dents
1. Dylan Bundy is expected to start in an extended spring training game Tuesday.
2. A Phillies pitcher landed on the DL with a shoulder injury.
3. Jason Grilli and Russell Martin faced each other in a simulated game.
4. Jesse Crain continues to work out.
5. Joey Votto is still in a state of limbo.
6. Mat Latos is making progress.
7. A couple of Mariners pitchers are making progress.
Saturday’s games
1. Juan Lagares put on a show.
2. Hamels picked up his 100th victory.
3. The Blue Jays took another in Texas.
4. Tom Koehler stepped up for the Marlins.
5. That’s four straight wins and counting for the Cardinals.
6. The Braves’ slump has deepened.
7. Brian Dozier ignited the Minnesota offense again.
8. The Indians kicked the ball around.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Mets saved $850,000 by cutting Kyle Farnsworth, writes Anthony Rieber.
2. Ryan Zimmerman may or may not become an outfielder.
3. The Rockies need to call up a pitcher.
4. Daric Barton has cleared waivers.
AL West
• C.J. Wilson went the distance. From ESPN Stats & Information, how Wilson threw his second career shutout:
A. He had 14 ground ball outs, second most in any start this year.
B. He averaged a season-high 91.3 mph with his fastball; the Rays were 3-for-16 in at-bats ending with that pitch.
C. Hitters were 1-for-6 in at-bats ending in his curveball.
• George Springer had another good day.
• A kid from South Dakota is becoming a hot prospect for the Rangers.
AL Central
• Ron Gardenhire wants a four-man bench for the upcoming road trip.
• Jose Abreu had a painful day.
AL East
• Marcus Stroman says he’s ready, if needed, for the Toronto rotation.
• The Yankees won Saturday, but their bullpen didn’t get a lot of relief.
• Mark Teixeira is back in stride, writes Kevin Kernan.
• Dellin Betances is piling up a lot of innings and strikeouts.
• The decision about the Rays’ rotation gained clarity.
• David Price is finding his comfort level, writes Roger Mooney.
NL West
• The Dodgers continue to be out of sight, writes Bill Plaschke.
NL Central
• The Cardinals are doing the little things to get back on track, writes Bernie Miklasz.
• The Brewers could have some options in a draft stocked with pitchers.
• Rick Morrissey is not buying what the Cubs are selling.
NL East
• B.J. Upton has 13 strikeouts in his past 19 at-bats, David O’Brien writes.
• Three veteran signings by the Marlins are paying off, Clark Spencer writes.
Other stuff
• A Johns Hopkins graduate is pursuing his goal of managing in the big leagues, Tim Casey writes.
• J.P. Arencibia remains angry over what was said about him in Toronto.
• Some baseball art is selling for about a half a million bucks.
• Vanderbilt will be the No. 6 seed in the SEC tourney.
And today will be better than yesterday.
But not only the running game of the Detroit baserunners, who were told to look for opportunities to take a base when they see it. Ausmus also wanted his pitchers to think more about the running game.
When pitchers threw their bullpen sessions in the spring, about a third of their work was done from the stretch, Alex Avila recalled. They simulated situations in which there was a runner at first, or first and third. They worked on varying their delivery times to the plate and on throwing to first base.
Last year, opposing teams ran aggressively against the Tigers. Detroit allowed 128 steals in 157 attempts, a staggering rate of 81.5 percent, which ranked 29th in the majors. Only two teams allowed more stolen bases.
This season, the Tigers have allowed 27 steals in 42 attempts, and their 35.7 percent rate of nabbing runners ranks fifth in the majors.
The pitchers have bought in to slowing down opposing runners, said Ausmus. That includes Anibal Sanchez, particularly, after he's had a lot of trouble with stolen bases in the past. Last year, Sanchez allowed 25 steals in 26 attempts.
This year, Sanchez's numbers aren't much better (six steals allowed in seven attempts), but Avila feels he’s throwing better, and has put in the work to improve. “Throwing out runners is a two-way street,” said Avila.
The Tigers added Rajai Davis and Ian Kinsler during the offseason, and so it was inevitable that Detroit would run more and steal more bases. The Tigers’ baserunners generally have a green light to run, other than when they get a hold sign from the bench, and Torii Hunter believes the Detroit baserunners are assuming a natural aggressiveness.
Detroit leads the AL in steals with 36 -- one more than all of last season, when the Tigers finished last in MLB.
More on the Red Sox, Tigers
• The Boston Red Sox players have a strong sense of what it takes to win, after going from worst to first last season, and there is deep unhappiness with the team’s situational play right now. They feel like they should be taking advantage of those opportunities to move runners in close games, given the team’s dip in power production this season, and given Boston’s own strong pitching. The Red Sox currently rank 15th in runs, after leading the majors -- by far -- in 2013.
• The sands in the hourglass continue to slide away in the time remaining for the Red Sox to sign Jon Lester to a long-term extension. Clayton Kershaw set the very top of the market when he got a $215 million deal in the offseason, but the fairer comparables for Lester might be Cole Hamels, who got $144 million from the Philadelphia Phillies a few months before he was set to hit the market as a free agent, or Matt Cain, who got a five-year, $112.5 million extension in the spring before his free-agent fall.
The Red Sox offered Lester $70 million over four years earlier this year, and while Lester has mentioned that he’d like to stay in Boston, there is typically a time in the baseball calendar when it makes more sense for a prospective free agent to simply wait until he can hit the market.
If Boston intends to make a stronger offer to the 30-year-old Lester, who is off to the best start of his career, then it makes absolutely no sense to wait before presenting the upgraded proposal. The Phillies took a similar approach with Hamels a couple of years ago, coming in with a very low offer initially, and with Hamels pitching well as he neared free agency, the Phillies surrendered completely and made a deal for about 75 percent more than their initial offer.
[+] EnlargeJon Lester
Abelimages/Getty Images
If the Red Sox have another offer for Jon Lester, it would behoove them to put it on the table soon.
There is a clear middle ground in the Lester talks -- for about five years and $110 million, that place between what Boston offered and what Hamels got -- and if the Red Sox decide they are willing to go there, they should offer now rather than later in the summer. This is because there could be a day when Lester and his representatives decide to wait for free agency, and Lester would probably rank with Max Scherzer as the best available.
Keep in mind, as well, that the Red Sox have contractual commitments to exactly one player beyond 2015: Dustin Pedroia. Unlike the Angels, Tigers and Yankees, they have a lot of financial flexibility.
• Scherzer is known for never wanting to back away from a challenge, for being hyper-competitive, and so far, his bet on himself -- after he turned down a $144 million offer in the spring -- looks good, given his league-best 1.83 ERA and 73 strikeouts.
But another Tiger is putting himself in position to cash in in a big way. Rick Porcello is showing a much improved slider, and because he broke in at such an early age, it’s easy to forget how young he is (25). Porcello will be eligible for free agency after the 2015 season at age 26, and he just keeps on getting better and better. He shut down the Red Sox on Saturday.
From the Elias Sports Bureau: Porcello is the fifth Tigers pitcher in the past 65 seasons to win seven of his first eight starts of a season. The others were Doyle Alexander in 1987 (7-0), Mark Fidrych in 1976 (7-1), Mickey Lolich in 1972 (7-1), and Denny McLain in 1966 (7-1).
• Sanchez’s changeup has a ton of movement, so much so that Avila says he has no idea which way it will break. Typically, the changeup of a right-handed pitcher will fade low and away from left-handed hitters, down and in to right-handed hitters. But Sanchez’s will sometimes cut, or go straight down. Avila will set up in the middle of the plate, rather than sit on a corner and create a target, and catch the ball in whatever direction it goes.
Sanchez will start for the Tigers on "Sunday Night Baseball" against the Red Sox (8 ET on ESPN and WatchESPN), and Detroit will be careful with him, Rod Beard writes.
• Miguel Cabrera was hitting .206 on April 21, in keeping with what Hunter predicted back in spring training. Cabrera had abdominal surgery after last season, and Hunter had the same kind of surgery after the 2009 season. Hunter recalled how it took him months to get comfortable using the lower half of his body again in his swing, and related this to Cabrera back in February, telling him that he probably wouldn’t feel 100 percent until July.
Miguel Cabrera Through May 17
2012 2014
BA .305 .305
HR 8 7
RBI 33 37
Triple Crown? Yes ?
MVP? Yes ?
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Cabrera seems to be ahead of that projection now. As he has integrated the lower half of his body more and more with his swing, he has stopped chopping grounders, and he has started driving the ball: Cabrera is hitting .350 in May, with five homers and 22 RBIs.
From ESPN Stats & Information: Cabrera is starting to heat up, and while he hasn't been a wrecking ball yet this season, his numbers are almost identical to those at this same point two seasons ago, when he won the Triple Crown and MVP, as seen in the table to the right.
• Will Middlebrooks broke his right index finger, and is again on the disabled list. A sizeable portion of the Boston organization would welcome back Stephen Drew, writes John Tomase.
At this point, the earliest that Drew and Kendrys Morales will be playing is probably late June.
By the way: MLB’s investigation of the comments made in my April 9 column about Drew and Morales is progressing, with employees being asked to explain details of their contact with this reporter. Just a rule of thumb: Reporters talk to a lot of people about a lot of things.
Around the league
• The hits just keep on coming for the Texas Rangers: Prince Fielder missed Saturday’s game because of a neck problem.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks' hiring of Tony La Russa to oversee the baseball operations department means another change of direction for Arizona.
Ken Kendrick, the team’s managing general partner, is notoriously impatient, which has a better chance of working if the club payroll is one of the highest -- a la George Steinbrenner and the Yankees -- because the inevitable mistakes of aggression can be papered over.
But the Diamondbacks have typically ranked among MLB’s bottom half in payroll -- this year, they are 11th, at $113 million -- and when Kendrick's frustration spills over, which is often, the ripples force change. That was evident when he criticized Justin Upton in a radio interview during the 2012 season, which was taken by rival organizations as a sure sign that Upton was going to be traded; eventually, the Diamondbacks swapped Upton at a discount price.
Arizona made the playoffs in 2007, but missed the postseason when the Manny Ramirez-fueled Dodgers passed them late in 2008, and Josh Byrnes was fired during the 2010 season. Kevin Towers was hired following the 2010 campaign, and in the three seasons since then, Arizona won 94, 81 and 81 games, which means that Towers is effectively losing his job without having a losing season. (Arizona is 17-28 this season, and 15 games over .500 overall during Towers’ tenure).
In April, Kendrick told the Arizona Republic that he wanted someone in his front office steeped in sabermetric analysis, and the great irony is that Byrnes has a reputation for excellence in that. Now Kendrick is bringing in La Russa, who isn’t a numbers guy. So go figure.
From Nick Piecoro’s story:
The Diamondbacks were thrilled to be able to add someone of La Russa's pedigree, but the move clearly was spurred by the team's disappointing start. Despite a franchise record payroll of more than $110 million, the Diamondbacks entered Saturday's game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 16-28 and were 11 1/2 games out of first place in the National League West. They finished at exactly .500 in each of the past two seasons.
"We have a tough situation that he's entering," Diamondbacks Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick said. "We don't expect any one person can change this overnight. It took us a while to get where we are, it'll take us a while to change it. We have the right guy at the right time, and we're really delighted and honored to have Tony join us."
Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said the organization needs to add talent throughout, particularly on the pitching staff, which has underperformed both in the rotation and the bullpen. He also said the club's prospect depth has been drained.
"I think a few years ago we were positioned well with prospects," Hall said. "We made moves -- and it's not just KT, it's all of us -- (a) let's try to win it now mentality."
The first question that will face La Russa will be if and when the Diamondbacks will wave a white flag on the 2014 season. But no matter what happens going forward -- and personally, I think the Diamondbacks should start thinking of themselves as a West Coast version of the Tampa Bay Rays, rather than worrying about competing with the Dodgers -- Kendrick needs to stick to a plan and let his people do their work. The buck stops with him, and the instability that has marked recent seasons begins with his management of the club.
The D-backs delivered a much-needed jolt, writes Dan Bickley.
Arizona routed Kershaw and the Dodgers on Saturday.
• Danny Duffy flirted with perfection, writes Andy McCullough.
• Scott Kazmir was ejected and isn’t sure why, but Oakland won anyway.
• Kershaw seems to have a curveball problem, Mark Saxon writes. Fascinating.
From ESPN Stats & Information, how Kershaw lost:
A. He threw 56 percent of his pitches for strikes, his worst rate in any start since 2011.
B. Batters hit .600 (3-for-5) in at-bats ending in his fastball, his second-worst rate since 2009.
C. Hitters had a hard-hit ball in 36.4 percent of their at-bats vs. Kershaw, his fourth-highest rate in the past six seasons, and highest since 2010.
• John Russell took over the Orioles for a day, with Buck Showalter attending his son’s graduation from law school.
• Victor Martinez is off to a start akin to what Joe DiMaggio had, John Lowe writes.
• A pivotal call went against the Giants, and prompted the Marlins to give the game ball to someone not in uniform.
Dings and dents
1. Dylan Bundy is expected to start in an extended spring training game Tuesday.
2. A Phillies pitcher landed on the DL with a shoulder injury.
3. Jason Grilli and Russell Martin faced each other in a simulated game.
4. Jesse Crain continues to work out.
5. Joey Votto is still in a state of limbo.
6. Mat Latos is making progress.
7. A couple of Mariners pitchers are making progress.
Saturday’s games
1. Juan Lagares put on a show.
2. Hamels picked up his 100th victory.
3. The Blue Jays took another in Texas.
4. Tom Koehler stepped up for the Marlins.
5. That’s four straight wins and counting for the Cardinals.
6. The Braves’ slump has deepened.
7. Brian Dozier ignited the Minnesota offense again.
8. The Indians kicked the ball around.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Mets saved $850,000 by cutting Kyle Farnsworth, writes Anthony Rieber.
2. Ryan Zimmerman may or may not become an outfielder.
3. The Rockies need to call up a pitcher.
4. Daric Barton has cleared waivers.
AL West
• C.J. Wilson went the distance. From ESPN Stats & Information, how Wilson threw his second career shutout:
A. He had 14 ground ball outs, second most in any start this year.
B. He averaged a season-high 91.3 mph with his fastball; the Rays were 3-for-16 in at-bats ending with that pitch.
C. Hitters were 1-for-6 in at-bats ending in his curveball.
• George Springer had another good day.
• A kid from South Dakota is becoming a hot prospect for the Rangers.
AL Central
• Ron Gardenhire wants a four-man bench for the upcoming road trip.
• Jose Abreu had a painful day.
AL East
• Marcus Stroman says he’s ready, if needed, for the Toronto rotation.
• The Yankees won Saturday, but their bullpen didn’t get a lot of relief.
• Mark Teixeira is back in stride, writes Kevin Kernan.
• Dellin Betances is piling up a lot of innings and strikeouts.
• The decision about the Rays’ rotation gained clarity.
• David Price is finding his comfort level, writes Roger Mooney.
NL West
• The Dodgers continue to be out of sight, writes Bill Plaschke.
NL Central
• The Cardinals are doing the little things to get back on track, writes Bernie Miklasz.
• The Brewers could have some options in a draft stocked with pitchers.
• Rick Morrissey is not buying what the Cubs are selling.
NL East
• B.J. Upton has 13 strikeouts in his past 19 at-bats, David O’Brien writes.
• Three veteran signings by the Marlins are paying off, Clark Spencer writes.
Other stuff
• A Johns Hopkins graduate is pursuing his goal of managing in the big leagues, Tim Casey writes.
• J.P. Arencibia remains angry over what was said about him in Toronto.
• Some baseball art is selling for about a half a million bucks.
• Vanderbilt will be the No. 6 seed in the SEC tourney.
And today will be better than yesterday.
Blue Jays should trade for Samardzija.
General managers use the first two months of the season to evaluate their teams, then try to improve the team through trades or calling up top prospects in the next two months. Then they try to tweak the team with waiver deals and September call-ups in the last two months.
Given this, teams are mainly concentrating on the draft and don’t focus full-time on trades until after the draft (June 5-7). However, GMs still are talking to each other and laying the foundation for deals. This includes letting other GMs know their interest in a particular player and at least offer a fair chance to trade for that player. Many GMs are also letting other teams know exactly who’s available and who’s untouchable.
Most of the big trades happen between the All-Star Game and the July 31 trade deadline as well as in August via waiver deals. Of course, that doesn’t mean there aren’t deals in May or June, and I like to think of these deals as "appetizer" trades, with the entrees coming closer to July 31. Often, these are minor deals, like when Chris Nelson was dealt from the Colorado Rockies to the New York Yankees last May. However, we sometimes get major deals in May.
For example, it was mid-May 1998 when the Dodgers traded Mike Piazza to the Marlins, who then traded him to the Mets a week later.
With 27 of the 30 teams within four games of the playoffs coming into the weekend, it is safe to assume there will be fewer teams "selling" than normal. More likely trades will be made between contenders that match up in roster depth and weaknesses.
Here are some possible "appetizer" trades I would like to see that would fill some important needs of these contending teams:
1. Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Jeff Samardzija from the Chicago Cubs
OK, this is not a traditional "appetizer" deal, and is more in line with those aforementioned Piazza deals. The Blue Jays lead the AL in home runs and are third in runs scored. They might have the best lineup in the AL East. However, for the Blue Jays to contend all season, they must make a trade for a starting pitcher.
They came close to signing Ervin Santana before he went to Atlanta. Mark Buehrle is off to the best start of his career, with a 7-1 record at a 2.04 ERA. R.A. Dickey and Drew Hutchison have held their own despite 4.50 ERAs, but all other Jays starters are over 5.00. The Blue Jays should strike early and try to land Samardzija, and without dealing top pitching prospects Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman. Perhaps an offer of left-handed pitcher Daniel Norris, right-handed pitcher Roberto Osuna and third baseman Mitch Nay could get it done.
2. Atlanta Braves acquire 2B Nick Franklin from the Seattle Mariners
The Braves need more range, contact and speed at second base, and Franklin would fit the bill. I know some people think Tommy La Stella could be the answer, but he is 25 years old and is slugging .328 at Triple-A. It's hard to see him as a difference-maker.
Franklin, 23, is tearing it up at Triple-A Tacoma, batting .384/.479/.667 with seven doubles, seven home runs, 25 RBIs and six steals in just 27 games. He is blocked by Robinson Cano and it's only a matter of time before the Mariners deal Franklin.
The problem is the Mariners want a corner outfield prospect with power, something Atlanta does not have. The Braves also don’t want to sacrifice their strength in the bullpen arms, leaving prospects like Jose Peraza, Victor Caratini and Josh Elander as possible trade bait, which might not be enough for the Mariners.
3. Detroit Tigers acquire RHP Brad Ziegler from the Arizona Diamondbacks
Ziegler, 34, is off to another fast start with a 2.53 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 24 appearances for the D-backs as they shift into rebuilding mode. Meanwhile, the Tigers need quality depth in the sixth and seventh innings. Ziegler and his submarine delivery bring a unique look at any bullpen, and should play nicely with the right side of the Tigers’ bullpen that boasts Joba Chamberlain and Al Albuquerque setting up closer Joe Nathan.
Arizona GM Kevin Towers is pretty good at picking the right pitching prospects, and maybe he could persuade the Tigers to part with prospects Drew VerHagen or Jeff Thompson.
4. Baltimore Orioles acquire C Kurt Suzuki from the Minnesota Twins
The Orioles don’t need to be in denial any longer. Matt Wieters's elbow injury is a problem, and they should prepare for the fact that he might be limited to the DH spot when he returns from the DL. (This assumes he will avoid Tommy John surgery, which is still a possibility.)
Although GM Dan Duquette says he’s happy with the duo of Steve Clevenger and Caleb Joseph, Suzuki would be the perfect fit for the Orioles. He knows how to call a game and is decent at framing pitches. He’s also off to a great start with the bat (.314/.390/.410).
Suzuki's stock will never be higher and the Twins need to make Josmil Pinto their full-time catcher to let him develop. Minnesota needs pitching, and the Orioles could offer one of their secondary bullpen arms like Troy Patton or Ryan Webb, or a mid-level minor league pitching prospect.
5. Los Angeles Angels acquire LHP Alex Torres from the San Diego Padres
It was just two years ago in May that Angels GM Jerry Dipoto acquired Ernesto Frieri from the Padres, so why not swing a similar deal?
Padres GM Josh Byrnes made a shrewd trade acquiring Torres (0.60 ERA in 17 appearances) from Tampa Bay and doesn’t want to trade him because he has one of the best bullpens in the NL right now. However, Byrnes also knows that he has to keep building long term, and with Chase Headley a free agent at season’s end, he will need a long-term solution at third unless he moves Jedd Gyorko there. Could he pry third base prospect Kaleb Cowart away from the Angels for Torres? I doubt it. If not, second baseman Alex Yarbrough might work, and he's hitting .308 at Double-A.
Given this, teams are mainly concentrating on the draft and don’t focus full-time on trades until after the draft (June 5-7). However, GMs still are talking to each other and laying the foundation for deals. This includes letting other GMs know their interest in a particular player and at least offer a fair chance to trade for that player. Many GMs are also letting other teams know exactly who’s available and who’s untouchable.
Most of the big trades happen between the All-Star Game and the July 31 trade deadline as well as in August via waiver deals. Of course, that doesn’t mean there aren’t deals in May or June, and I like to think of these deals as "appetizer" trades, with the entrees coming closer to July 31. Often, these are minor deals, like when Chris Nelson was dealt from the Colorado Rockies to the New York Yankees last May. However, we sometimes get major deals in May.
For example, it was mid-May 1998 when the Dodgers traded Mike Piazza to the Marlins, who then traded him to the Mets a week later.
With 27 of the 30 teams within four games of the playoffs coming into the weekend, it is safe to assume there will be fewer teams "selling" than normal. More likely trades will be made between contenders that match up in roster depth and weaknesses.
Here are some possible "appetizer" trades I would like to see that would fill some important needs of these contending teams:
1. Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Jeff Samardzija from the Chicago Cubs
OK, this is not a traditional "appetizer" deal, and is more in line with those aforementioned Piazza deals. The Blue Jays lead the AL in home runs and are third in runs scored. They might have the best lineup in the AL East. However, for the Blue Jays to contend all season, they must make a trade for a starting pitcher.
They came close to signing Ervin Santana before he went to Atlanta. Mark Buehrle is off to the best start of his career, with a 7-1 record at a 2.04 ERA. R.A. Dickey and Drew Hutchison have held their own despite 4.50 ERAs, but all other Jays starters are over 5.00. The Blue Jays should strike early and try to land Samardzija, and without dealing top pitching prospects Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman. Perhaps an offer of left-handed pitcher Daniel Norris, right-handed pitcher Roberto Osuna and third baseman Mitch Nay could get it done.
2. Atlanta Braves acquire 2B Nick Franklin from the Seattle Mariners
The Braves need more range, contact and speed at second base, and Franklin would fit the bill. I know some people think Tommy La Stella could be the answer, but he is 25 years old and is slugging .328 at Triple-A. It's hard to see him as a difference-maker.
Franklin, 23, is tearing it up at Triple-A Tacoma, batting .384/.479/.667 with seven doubles, seven home runs, 25 RBIs and six steals in just 27 games. He is blocked by Robinson Cano and it's only a matter of time before the Mariners deal Franklin.
The problem is the Mariners want a corner outfield prospect with power, something Atlanta does not have. The Braves also don’t want to sacrifice their strength in the bullpen arms, leaving prospects like Jose Peraza, Victor Caratini and Josh Elander as possible trade bait, which might not be enough for the Mariners.
3. Detroit Tigers acquire RHP Brad Ziegler from the Arizona Diamondbacks
Ziegler, 34, is off to another fast start with a 2.53 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 24 appearances for the D-backs as they shift into rebuilding mode. Meanwhile, the Tigers need quality depth in the sixth and seventh innings. Ziegler and his submarine delivery bring a unique look at any bullpen, and should play nicely with the right side of the Tigers’ bullpen that boasts Joba Chamberlain and Al Albuquerque setting up closer Joe Nathan.
Arizona GM Kevin Towers is pretty good at picking the right pitching prospects, and maybe he could persuade the Tigers to part with prospects Drew VerHagen or Jeff Thompson.
4. Baltimore Orioles acquire C Kurt Suzuki from the Minnesota Twins
The Orioles don’t need to be in denial any longer. Matt Wieters's elbow injury is a problem, and they should prepare for the fact that he might be limited to the DH spot when he returns from the DL. (This assumes he will avoid Tommy John surgery, which is still a possibility.)
Although GM Dan Duquette says he’s happy with the duo of Steve Clevenger and Caleb Joseph, Suzuki would be the perfect fit for the Orioles. He knows how to call a game and is decent at framing pitches. He’s also off to a great start with the bat (.314/.390/.410).
Suzuki's stock will never be higher and the Twins need to make Josmil Pinto their full-time catcher to let him develop. Minnesota needs pitching, and the Orioles could offer one of their secondary bullpen arms like Troy Patton or Ryan Webb, or a mid-level minor league pitching prospect.
5. Los Angeles Angels acquire LHP Alex Torres from the San Diego Padres
It was just two years ago in May that Angels GM Jerry Dipoto acquired Ernesto Frieri from the Padres, so why not swing a similar deal?
Padres GM Josh Byrnes made a shrewd trade acquiring Torres (0.60 ERA in 17 appearances) from Tampa Bay and doesn’t want to trade him because he has one of the best bullpens in the NL right now. However, Byrnes also knows that he has to keep building long term, and with Chase Headley a free agent at season’s end, he will need a long-term solution at third unless he moves Jedd Gyorko there. Could he pry third base prospect Kaleb Cowart away from the Angels for Torres? I doubt it. If not, second baseman Alex Yarbrough might work, and he's hitting .308 at Double-A.
The market for Jeff Samardzija.
The playoff field expanded from eight to 10 teams for the first time, giving more teams more chances at trying to make it to the postseason, making it less likely that clubs would become sellers before the July 31 trade deadline. Generally speaking, the market moved slowly.
But the rebuilding Chicago Cubs distinguished themselves last summer in their willingness to discuss trades. First, they moved Scott Feldman to Baltimore after the right-hander got off to a good start. They then swapped Matt Garza to the Texas Rangers and received what was generally considered to be the best package of the trade season: high-end pitching prospect C.J. Edwards, third baseman Mike Olt and right-handers Justin Grimm and Neil Ramirez.
Edwards was hurt earlier this season in Double-A, but the 20/20 hindsight perception of that trade within the industry is that Chicago did very well -- so well, in fact, that some rival executives believe that this trade helps frame a working model for what the minimum price will be for right-hander Jeff Samardzija.
“So you have an idea of just how expensive it will be,” one evaluator said.
Yes. Very.
At the time Garza was traded, he was about 10 weeks from qualifying for free agency. Samardzija, on the other hand, won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season.
Garza was in the market with some ugly injury history: He had missed months, making his last start in 2012 on July 21, and making his first start in 2013 on May 21. Samardzija, on the other hand, appears completely healthy.
And Samardzija right now appears as if he is a better pitcher than Garza was last year. Garza had a respectable 3.17 ERA at the time he was swapped to Texas. Samardzija, 29, has allowed just two homers in 61 innings and has posted a 1.62 ERA, and he is coming off a season in which he threw 213 innings. He has been one of the best pitchers in the National League so far, regardless of what his 0-4 record might suggest; only one pitcher in the majors has received less run support than Samardzija.
The Cubs need high-end pitching to match the strong collection of position players they are developing, and rival officials are already taking deep breaths and preparing for an extremely high asking price whenever they start conversations about Samardzija.
Given that there might be only one comparable pitcher in the market this summer -- David Price would be the No. 1 starter available, if the Rays choose to go that route -- the Cubs will be justified in setting a very high bar for Samardzjia. It will be a seller’s market.
“All it takes is one team saying yes,” one GM said.
Alfonso Soriano says he wouldn’t be surprised if Samardzija decided he wants to leave Chicago to have a shot to win. The Cubs also are expected to market right-hander Jason Hammel.
From ESPN Stats & Information, more about the hard luck of Samardzija so far this season.
He has 12 straight starts in which he has allowed three earned runs or fewer, and he hasn’t won any of them. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that’s the second-longest such streak since earned runs became an official stat in both leagues in 1913.
Around the league
• On Friday’s podcast: Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy offered some observations about the most skilled players at his position and the Fireball Express presented some next-level numbers on Mike Moustakas, Xander Bogaerts and others. On Thursday’s podcast, Keith Law explained the top of his mock draft and Chris Colabello of the Twins detailed his improbable journey to the big leagues -- which included seven seasons in an independent league.
• Not only have the defensive shifts affected offenses and gotten in the minds of hitters, but many evaluators believe they are hurting the reliability of some defensive metrics that have been developed in recent seasons. Some execs say that a lot of the metrics being used right now are so far askew from the eye test that they are beginning to question the credibility of the numbers.
• Some in the game now view Rob Manfred as a prohibitive favorite to follow Bud Selig as the next commissioner and estimate that he already has 21 or 22 votes of support among the 30 teams; he will need 23 votes. There is a block of teams that won’t support Manfred, but the committee that was just formed to identify candidates is stacked with officials who are viewed as supporters of Manfred.
• Max Scherzer’s bet on himself continues to look good: In his ninth start Friday, he shut out the Red Sox for six innings, lowering his ERA to 1.83. Scherzer has 73 strikeouts in 59 innings, and he has held opponents to a .325 slugging percentage.
Jon Lester was the losing pitcher, and, whether he likes it or not, writes Jon Tomase, he will be measured against Scherzer this season.
• The Tigers finished the shutout.
• In Arizona, Zack Greinke pitched eight innings of scoreless ball, extending his streak of consecutive starts allowing two or fewer runs to 21 -- which, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, is the modern-day record.
Most consecutive starts allowing two or fewer runs
*Modern era (since 1900)
Zack Greinke, 21
But the rebuilding Chicago Cubs distinguished themselves last summer in their willingness to discuss trades. First, they moved Scott Feldman to Baltimore after the right-hander got off to a good start. They then swapped Matt Garza to the Texas Rangers and received what was generally considered to be the best package of the trade season: high-end pitching prospect C.J. Edwards, third baseman Mike Olt and right-handers Justin Grimm and Neil Ramirez.
Edwards was hurt earlier this season in Double-A, but the 20/20 hindsight perception of that trade within the industry is that Chicago did very well -- so well, in fact, that some rival executives believe that this trade helps frame a working model for what the minimum price will be for right-hander Jeff Samardzija.
“So you have an idea of just how expensive it will be,” one evaluator said.
Yes. Very.
At the time Garza was traded, he was about 10 weeks from qualifying for free agency. Samardzija, on the other hand, won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season.
Garza was in the market with some ugly injury history: He had missed months, making his last start in 2012 on July 21, and making his first start in 2013 on May 21. Samardzija, on the other hand, appears completely healthy.
And Samardzija right now appears as if he is a better pitcher than Garza was last year. Garza had a respectable 3.17 ERA at the time he was swapped to Texas. Samardzija, 29, has allowed just two homers in 61 innings and has posted a 1.62 ERA, and he is coming off a season in which he threw 213 innings. He has been one of the best pitchers in the National League so far, regardless of what his 0-4 record might suggest; only one pitcher in the majors has received less run support than Samardzija.
The Cubs need high-end pitching to match the strong collection of position players they are developing, and rival officials are already taking deep breaths and preparing for an extremely high asking price whenever they start conversations about Samardzija.
Given that there might be only one comparable pitcher in the market this summer -- David Price would be the No. 1 starter available, if the Rays choose to go that route -- the Cubs will be justified in setting a very high bar for Samardzjia. It will be a seller’s market.
“All it takes is one team saying yes,” one GM said.
Alfonso Soriano says he wouldn’t be surprised if Samardzija decided he wants to leave Chicago to have a shot to win. The Cubs also are expected to market right-hander Jason Hammel.
From ESPN Stats & Information, more about the hard luck of Samardzija so far this season.
He has 12 straight starts in which he has allowed three earned runs or fewer, and he hasn’t won any of them. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that’s the second-longest such streak since earned runs became an official stat in both leagues in 1913.
Around the league
• On Friday’s podcast: Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy offered some observations about the most skilled players at his position and the Fireball Express presented some next-level numbers on Mike Moustakas, Xander Bogaerts and others. On Thursday’s podcast, Keith Law explained the top of his mock draft and Chris Colabello of the Twins detailed his improbable journey to the big leagues -- which included seven seasons in an independent league.
• Not only have the defensive shifts affected offenses and gotten in the minds of hitters, but many evaluators believe they are hurting the reliability of some defensive metrics that have been developed in recent seasons. Some execs say that a lot of the metrics being used right now are so far askew from the eye test that they are beginning to question the credibility of the numbers.
• Some in the game now view Rob Manfred as a prohibitive favorite to follow Bud Selig as the next commissioner and estimate that he already has 21 or 22 votes of support among the 30 teams; he will need 23 votes. There is a block of teams that won’t support Manfred, but the committee that was just formed to identify candidates is stacked with officials who are viewed as supporters of Manfred.
• Max Scherzer’s bet on himself continues to look good: In his ninth start Friday, he shut out the Red Sox for six innings, lowering his ERA to 1.83. Scherzer has 73 strikeouts in 59 innings, and he has held opponents to a .325 slugging percentage.
Jon Lester was the losing pitcher, and, whether he likes it or not, writes Jon Tomase, he will be measured against Scherzer this season.
• The Tigers finished the shutout.
• In Arizona, Zack Greinke pitched eight innings of scoreless ball, extending his streak of consecutive starts allowing two or fewer runs to 21 -- which, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, is the modern-day record.
Most consecutive starts allowing two or fewer runs
*Modern era (since 1900)
Zack Greinke, 21
Where the Marlins are One of the Best and Worst Teams in Baseball.
A Week of Andrelton Simmons Missing Plays.
A feature that gets a lot of attention here, probably, is our playoff odds page. That page uses updated player projections and manually updated team depth charts to determine playoff probability and expected record. I look at the page probably two or three times a day, and though the numbers mean only so much, there’s no better way to get an idea of where a team truly stands. Current standings tell you about the now; projected standings tell you about the significance of the now.
A feature that gets a lot less attention here, probably, is our playoff odds page based on season-to-date performance. It uses the same depth-chart information, but instead of using player projections, it uses what players have already done. For example, in the former case, the Rockies are projected with a half-decent Charlie Blackmon. In the latter case, the Rockies are projected with a terrific Charlie Blackmon. It’s evident why the former page is preferred, but the latter page can serve a purpose, especially if you’re wondering about potential under- and over-achievers.
I thought it could be interesting to compare the two pages. We’ll leave the playoff odds alone — those get complicated, and they’re not what this is about. Both pages have projected rest-of-season winning percentages. With which teams do we see the greatest differences? Is this as predictable as it seems like it would be?
I made a chart, that I only realized after the fact is pretty unhelpful. Here it is anyway, because I invested literally several minutes:
Note the different axes. On the x-axis, projected win% based on season-to-date numbers. On the y-axis, projected win% based on projected numbers from ZiPS and Steamer. You can see agreement that the Astros suck. You can see agreement that the Tigers and A’s are good. But then, just how good? Let’s examine the same data in table form:
Team Win%, Projections Win%, Season-to-Date Difference
Rangers 0.518 0.438 0.080
Diamondbacks 0.483 0.404 0.079
Dodgers 0.556 0.492 0.064
Indians 0.517 0.460 0.057
Rays 0.518 0.462 0.056
Pirates 0.504 0.461 0.043
Red Sox 0.543 0.501 0.042
Nationals 0.553 0.514 0.039
Phillies 0.474 0.441 0.033
Padres 0.494 0.461 0.033
Astros 0.429 0.411 0.018
Mariners 0.508 0.493 0.015
Braves 0.527 0.513 0.014
Yankees 0.500 0.493 0.007
Blue Jays 0.520 0.516 0.004
Royals 0.502 0.501 0.001
Reds 0.485 0.492 -0.007
Cardinals 0.530 0.537 -0.007
Orioles 0.483 0.494 -0.011
White Sox 0.450 0.468 -0.018
Mets 0.448 0.471 -0.023
Brewers 0.483 0.510 -0.027
Giants 0.515 0.545 -0.030
Angels 0.532 0.565 -0.033
Twins 0.433 0.466 -0.033
Cubs 0.451 0.488 -0.037
Tigers 0.558 0.628 -0.070
Marlins 0.452 0.534 -0.082
Rockies 0.491 0.576 -0.085
Athletics 0.542 0.660 -0.118
In one column, projected win% based on projected numbers. In the next column, projected win% based on season-to-date numbers. In the last column, the latter subtracted from the former. Some large differences show up. Also, you get non-differences, like with the Royals, but the interesting teams aren’t the teams in the middle.
If you evaluated the Rangers only by what they’ve done so far, you’d see a pretty lousy team, particularly after the injury problems. But then, it’s a team with Prince Fielder, whose slugging percentage matches his OBP. It’s a team with Adrian Beltre, who to date has been worth 0.1 WAR. It’s a team where Elvis Andrus has been less valuable than Robinson Chirinos. You can continue on down the line, and you find players who’ve been underachieving.
Right after the Rangers, you see the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks have been known underachievers, and a big chunk of the difference in this table has to do with the Diamondbacks currently having a staff RA9-WAR of -2.0. The issues have mostly been the pitchers and Martin Prado, and the projections still think the team is half-decent. Maybe a third-decent, but, not disastrous.
Then you’ve got a streak of expected contenders, topped by the Dodgers. People have been waiting for the Dodgers to kick it into gear, and through a quarter of the season the outfield hasn’t been great outside of Yasiel Puig. The catchers have yet to do much of anything, with and without A.J. Ellis. You look at that team, though, and you figure it has to win, with that rotation. Note that, in a twist, while the projections like the Dodgers more, the projections also like Dee Gordon less.
At the other end of the table, some 2014 surprises. The Marlins are referred to in the headline. Based on season-to-date, they’re projected for baseball’s seventh-best rest-of-season record. Based on ZiPS and Steamer, they’re projected for baseball’s sixth-worst rest-of-season record. The projection systems are reluctant to buy the offense, while the season-to-date numbers like even a Jose Fernandez-less Marlins roster.
The Rockies have a slightly bigger difference than the Marlins do. This has little to do with pitching, and almost everything to do with the crop of position players. Troy Tulowitzki has been the best player on the planet. Blackmon’s already exceeded all expectations, and guys like Nolan Arenado, Justin Morneau, and Corey Dickerson have been overshadowed and overachieving. The Rockies have been a position-player juggernaut; projection systems foresee a slow-down.
And then there are the A’s. The A’s, who don’t have Jarrod Parker or A.J. Griffin. The A’s, who’ve found gold in Jesse Chavez. The A’s, who’ve featured an unbelievable catching tandem in Derek Norris and John Jaso. The projections do like the A’s — right now, they have baseball’s second-highest playoff odds. But the other version of the playoff-odds page loves the A’s, who have baseball’s best run differential by 40. The worst pitcher’s been Dan Straily, and he’s been sent to the minors. The general message here: the A’s have been playing probably too well. But they might just be freaks.
It’s a tricky thing to discuss, the difference between projected record and projected record based on season-to-date data. Sometimes, certainly, the projections can lag, because projections need some convincing to change their minds. If you’re a believer in the Marlins’ offense, you might believe more in the alternative playoff-odds page. If you’re a believer in the Rockies’ offense, you might believe more in the alternative playoff-odds page. The regular playoff-odds page is going to be more conservative, but in most cases that tends to be the proper approach. The season-to-date page will more closely reflect how fans do feel about their teams. The projections page will more closely reflect how fans should feel about their teams. We’re all prone to recency bias, but then we do sometimes spot a change before the projections do, so we’re not total idiots.
According to a playoff-odds page, the Marlins are one of the best teams in baseball. According to a playoff-odds page, the Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Those are two facts. It’s up to you how you choose to weight them.
A feature that gets a lot less attention here, probably, is our playoff odds page based on season-to-date performance. It uses the same depth-chart information, but instead of using player projections, it uses what players have already done. For example, in the former case, the Rockies are projected with a half-decent Charlie Blackmon. In the latter case, the Rockies are projected with a terrific Charlie Blackmon. It’s evident why the former page is preferred, but the latter page can serve a purpose, especially if you’re wondering about potential under- and over-achievers.
I thought it could be interesting to compare the two pages. We’ll leave the playoff odds alone — those get complicated, and they’re not what this is about. Both pages have projected rest-of-season winning percentages. With which teams do we see the greatest differences? Is this as predictable as it seems like it would be?
I made a chart, that I only realized after the fact is pretty unhelpful. Here it is anyway, because I invested literally several minutes:
Note the different axes. On the x-axis, projected win% based on season-to-date numbers. On the y-axis, projected win% based on projected numbers from ZiPS and Steamer. You can see agreement that the Astros suck. You can see agreement that the Tigers and A’s are good. But then, just how good? Let’s examine the same data in table form:
Team Win%, Projections Win%, Season-to-Date Difference
Rangers 0.518 0.438 0.080
Diamondbacks 0.483 0.404 0.079
Dodgers 0.556 0.492 0.064
Indians 0.517 0.460 0.057
Rays 0.518 0.462 0.056
Pirates 0.504 0.461 0.043
Red Sox 0.543 0.501 0.042
Nationals 0.553 0.514 0.039
Phillies 0.474 0.441 0.033
Padres 0.494 0.461 0.033
Astros 0.429 0.411 0.018
Mariners 0.508 0.493 0.015
Braves 0.527 0.513 0.014
Yankees 0.500 0.493 0.007
Blue Jays 0.520 0.516 0.004
Royals 0.502 0.501 0.001
Reds 0.485 0.492 -0.007
Cardinals 0.530 0.537 -0.007
Orioles 0.483 0.494 -0.011
White Sox 0.450 0.468 -0.018
Mets 0.448 0.471 -0.023
Brewers 0.483 0.510 -0.027
Giants 0.515 0.545 -0.030
Angels 0.532 0.565 -0.033
Twins 0.433 0.466 -0.033
Cubs 0.451 0.488 -0.037
Tigers 0.558 0.628 -0.070
Marlins 0.452 0.534 -0.082
Rockies 0.491 0.576 -0.085
Athletics 0.542 0.660 -0.118
In one column, projected win% based on projected numbers. In the next column, projected win% based on season-to-date numbers. In the last column, the latter subtracted from the former. Some large differences show up. Also, you get non-differences, like with the Royals, but the interesting teams aren’t the teams in the middle.
If you evaluated the Rangers only by what they’ve done so far, you’d see a pretty lousy team, particularly after the injury problems. But then, it’s a team with Prince Fielder, whose slugging percentage matches his OBP. It’s a team with Adrian Beltre, who to date has been worth 0.1 WAR. It’s a team where Elvis Andrus has been less valuable than Robinson Chirinos. You can continue on down the line, and you find players who’ve been underachieving.
Right after the Rangers, you see the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks have been known underachievers, and a big chunk of the difference in this table has to do with the Diamondbacks currently having a staff RA9-WAR of -2.0. The issues have mostly been the pitchers and Martin Prado, and the projections still think the team is half-decent. Maybe a third-decent, but, not disastrous.
Then you’ve got a streak of expected contenders, topped by the Dodgers. People have been waiting for the Dodgers to kick it into gear, and through a quarter of the season the outfield hasn’t been great outside of Yasiel Puig. The catchers have yet to do much of anything, with and without A.J. Ellis. You look at that team, though, and you figure it has to win, with that rotation. Note that, in a twist, while the projections like the Dodgers more, the projections also like Dee Gordon less.
At the other end of the table, some 2014 surprises. The Marlins are referred to in the headline. Based on season-to-date, they’re projected for baseball’s seventh-best rest-of-season record. Based on ZiPS and Steamer, they’re projected for baseball’s sixth-worst rest-of-season record. The projection systems are reluctant to buy the offense, while the season-to-date numbers like even a Jose Fernandez-less Marlins roster.
The Rockies have a slightly bigger difference than the Marlins do. This has little to do with pitching, and almost everything to do with the crop of position players. Troy Tulowitzki has been the best player on the planet. Blackmon’s already exceeded all expectations, and guys like Nolan Arenado, Justin Morneau, and Corey Dickerson have been overshadowed and overachieving. The Rockies have been a position-player juggernaut; projection systems foresee a slow-down.
And then there are the A’s. The A’s, who don’t have Jarrod Parker or A.J. Griffin. The A’s, who’ve found gold in Jesse Chavez. The A’s, who’ve featured an unbelievable catching tandem in Derek Norris and John Jaso. The projections do like the A’s — right now, they have baseball’s second-highest playoff odds. But the other version of the playoff-odds page loves the A’s, who have baseball’s best run differential by 40. The worst pitcher’s been Dan Straily, and he’s been sent to the minors. The general message here: the A’s have been playing probably too well. But they might just be freaks.
It’s a tricky thing to discuss, the difference between projected record and projected record based on season-to-date data. Sometimes, certainly, the projections can lag, because projections need some convincing to change their minds. If you’re a believer in the Marlins’ offense, you might believe more in the alternative playoff-odds page. If you’re a believer in the Rockies’ offense, you might believe more in the alternative playoff-odds page. The regular playoff-odds page is going to be more conservative, but in most cases that tends to be the proper approach. The season-to-date page will more closely reflect how fans do feel about their teams. The projections page will more closely reflect how fans should feel about their teams. We’re all prone to recency bias, but then we do sometimes spot a change before the projections do, so we’re not total idiots.
According to a playoff-odds page, the Marlins are one of the best teams in baseball. According to a playoff-odds page, the Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Those are two facts. It’s up to you how you choose to weight them.
A Week of Andrelton Simmons Missing Plays.
Let’s talk about slumps. Mike Trout is drawing some attention for his elevated strikeouts, and he’s on pace for 21 fewer batting runs than he produced a year ago. Price Fielder’s had some trouble adjusting to his move, and he’s on pace for 29 fewer batting runs than he produced a year ago. Robinson Cano up and changed sides of the continent, and he’s on pace for 34 fewer batting runs than he produced a year ago. These are all pretty big statistical declines, and while the players are each too good to give up on after so little time, their numbers are getting noticed. People are impatiently waiting for the players to look like themselves. I should note that Trout’s still been amazing, on account of being Mike Trout, but one can be simultaneously amazing and worse.
You know what nine or ten runs mean. You know the rule of thumb is that’s about what a win is. A win’s a pretty big deal, so those declines above are pretty big deals. And, of course, offense isn’t the only area where numbers fluctuate. Defensive Runs Saved, as shown on FanGraphs, updates daily. A year ago, as a shortstop, Andrelton Simmons was worth 41 runs above average in the field. This year he’s on pace for +4. He’s a full-time player on pace to be worse by 37 runs, and that’s an enormous gap that to my knowledge no one’s discussed.
Certainly, there’s no reason to believe Simmons’ level of talent has meaningfully changed. Oh, he’ll be a mediocre shortstop in time, when he’s 50, but right now he’s 24, and last year he was 23. We’ve known Simmons as the guy who’s broken the advanced defensive metrics, and talent doesn’t disappear overnight. We’ve always cautioned that you need big samples of defensive data to draw conclusions, and a month and a half isn’t enough. Based on 2014 numbers, there isn’t much we can conclude about Simmons’ defensive true talent.
But there’s true talent, and there’s performance. Over long stretches of time, the two are close together, but while true talent changes slowly and predictably, performance can dart around like a fly in a kitchen. One could say that Simmons, to this point, has earned his numbers for the year, even if they don’t quite reflect what he really is. Why should we expect a perfect reflection?
I got to wondering about what Simmons has done. And that took me to his defensive spray charts, and that took me to MLB.tv. The numbers say Simmons has been creating fewer outs in the field. What does that look like? Join me, if you will, on a tour. We’ll cover just the past week, because it’s been an eventful one. Here are six plays that Andrelton Simmons didn’t make.
Play No. 1
Inside Edge actually lists this as an impossible play. That is, they figured 0% of shortstops would turn this into an out, and the Braves announcers said that Simmons didn’t have a chance. What Simmons did do was get close enough to look like he did have a chance, and in the past he’s certainly shown the ability to slide in front of a ball and launch it accurately to first with his shoulder-mounted cannon. In truth, this probably was impossible, but if you close your eyes and imagine, you can see Simmons coming up with magic.
Play No. 2
Almost impossible, according to Inside Edge, but not quite literally impossible. The part you see is that Simmons was unable to barehand the ball cleanly, but even if he had pulled that off, it’s by no means a lock he would’ve been able to throw out Darwin Barney. Barney’s a decent runner, the chopper was slow, and Simmons would’ve had to throw the ball off balance. 1-10% seems about right, erring closer to 1%.
Play No. 3
Darwin Barney again. Super difficult play again. The play Simmons didn’t make, pretty much all shortstops also wouldn’t have made. But the thing about Simmons is he isn’t supposed to be just another adequate shortstop. He’s supposed to make the regular plays, and the extraordinary plays. One gets only so many opportunities to make an extraordinary play.
Play No. 4
Screaming line drive. Nearly caught on the fly, but the ball came out of Simmons’ glove. This was classified as a remote play, but that doesn’t mean Simmons wasn’t upset with himself afterward:
Hold yourself to a crazy standard and you’ll be disappointed a lot by things that wouldn’t disappoint other people. This is the third play, incidentally, we’ve seen from the same game. Prepare for a fourth. Could this have been an out? Sure. Almost was. Simmons almost pulled off a Simmons, but instead he pulled off a Normal.
Play No. 5
Here’s the real stinker of the bunch. While it’s never easy to backhand, and while the ball might’ve taken a funny bounce, a ball got through that usually doesn’t, and Simmons was initially charged with an error before the play was apparently changed to a hit. Inside Edge classified this play as basically a coin flip. Definitely not easy, but, again, this isn’t a post about Derek Jeter.
Play No. 6
Simmons came up just shy of stopping this hot-shot grounder from Hunter Pence. Because he didn’t, Pence finished the play on second base, with the rare two-out double that doesn’t score a runner from first. If made, this play would’ve gone on a highlight reel, but instead that’s one fewer highlight for Andrelton Simmons, not that he doesn’t already have enough.
What’s been learned? First of all, I’ll note that none of these runners actually ended up scoring. Everybody got stranded, so Simmons didn’t meaningfully cost his team much of anything. And all but one of these plays would’ve been incredibly difficult, so we can’t even classify this as a defensive slump, really. And this brings us to the expression, that defense never slumps. When people say that, they’re thinking about the routine plays, the high-percentage plays. That defense doesn’t slump, barring a case of the yips. But there’s easy defense and challenging defense, and while the challenging defense is more infrequent, it’s also volatile, because the percentages shift so drastically. The idea behind the expression is that defensive performance is stable. But it likely isn’t toward the extremes, because the extremes involve full-out dives and barehands and throws while falling away. It takes little time for routine defensive ability to stabilize. It takes a lot more time for extreme defensive ability to stabilize.
For Simmons to do what he’s done in the past, statistically, he’s had to be amazing at both the routine and the exceptional. Probably, based on the numbers, he was a little over his head in the exceptional department, and in a sense that’s what regression is. His numbers are down now because he’s made fewer of the insane plays, but the reality of Andrelton Simmons might lie in between, where maybe in the future he makes one or two of the plays above. We know he can do things most shortstops can’t. Andrelton Simmons has the same defensive talent as ever. All the numbers are are estimations, and it can be a challenge to estimate the rare.
You know what nine or ten runs mean. You know the rule of thumb is that’s about what a win is. A win’s a pretty big deal, so those declines above are pretty big deals. And, of course, offense isn’t the only area where numbers fluctuate. Defensive Runs Saved, as shown on FanGraphs, updates daily. A year ago, as a shortstop, Andrelton Simmons was worth 41 runs above average in the field. This year he’s on pace for +4. He’s a full-time player on pace to be worse by 37 runs, and that’s an enormous gap that to my knowledge no one’s discussed.
Certainly, there’s no reason to believe Simmons’ level of talent has meaningfully changed. Oh, he’ll be a mediocre shortstop in time, when he’s 50, but right now he’s 24, and last year he was 23. We’ve known Simmons as the guy who’s broken the advanced defensive metrics, and talent doesn’t disappear overnight. We’ve always cautioned that you need big samples of defensive data to draw conclusions, and a month and a half isn’t enough. Based on 2014 numbers, there isn’t much we can conclude about Simmons’ defensive true talent.
But there’s true talent, and there’s performance. Over long stretches of time, the two are close together, but while true talent changes slowly and predictably, performance can dart around like a fly in a kitchen. One could say that Simmons, to this point, has earned his numbers for the year, even if they don’t quite reflect what he really is. Why should we expect a perfect reflection?
I got to wondering about what Simmons has done. And that took me to his defensive spray charts, and that took me to MLB.tv. The numbers say Simmons has been creating fewer outs in the field. What does that look like? Join me, if you will, on a tour. We’ll cover just the past week, because it’s been an eventful one. Here are six plays that Andrelton Simmons didn’t make.
Play No. 1
Inside Edge actually lists this as an impossible play. That is, they figured 0% of shortstops would turn this into an out, and the Braves announcers said that Simmons didn’t have a chance. What Simmons did do was get close enough to look like he did have a chance, and in the past he’s certainly shown the ability to slide in front of a ball and launch it accurately to first with his shoulder-mounted cannon. In truth, this probably was impossible, but if you close your eyes and imagine, you can see Simmons coming up with magic.
Play No. 2
Almost impossible, according to Inside Edge, but not quite literally impossible. The part you see is that Simmons was unable to barehand the ball cleanly, but even if he had pulled that off, it’s by no means a lock he would’ve been able to throw out Darwin Barney. Barney’s a decent runner, the chopper was slow, and Simmons would’ve had to throw the ball off balance. 1-10% seems about right, erring closer to 1%.
Play No. 3
Darwin Barney again. Super difficult play again. The play Simmons didn’t make, pretty much all shortstops also wouldn’t have made. But the thing about Simmons is he isn’t supposed to be just another adequate shortstop. He’s supposed to make the regular plays, and the extraordinary plays. One gets only so many opportunities to make an extraordinary play.
Play No. 4
Screaming line drive. Nearly caught on the fly, but the ball came out of Simmons’ glove. This was classified as a remote play, but that doesn’t mean Simmons wasn’t upset with himself afterward:
Hold yourself to a crazy standard and you’ll be disappointed a lot by things that wouldn’t disappoint other people. This is the third play, incidentally, we’ve seen from the same game. Prepare for a fourth. Could this have been an out? Sure. Almost was. Simmons almost pulled off a Simmons, but instead he pulled off a Normal.
Play No. 5
Here’s the real stinker of the bunch. While it’s never easy to backhand, and while the ball might’ve taken a funny bounce, a ball got through that usually doesn’t, and Simmons was initially charged with an error before the play was apparently changed to a hit. Inside Edge classified this play as basically a coin flip. Definitely not easy, but, again, this isn’t a post about Derek Jeter.
Play No. 6
Simmons came up just shy of stopping this hot-shot grounder from Hunter Pence. Because he didn’t, Pence finished the play on second base, with the rare two-out double that doesn’t score a runner from first. If made, this play would’ve gone on a highlight reel, but instead that’s one fewer highlight for Andrelton Simmons, not that he doesn’t already have enough.
What’s been learned? First of all, I’ll note that none of these runners actually ended up scoring. Everybody got stranded, so Simmons didn’t meaningfully cost his team much of anything. And all but one of these plays would’ve been incredibly difficult, so we can’t even classify this as a defensive slump, really. And this brings us to the expression, that defense never slumps. When people say that, they’re thinking about the routine plays, the high-percentage plays. That defense doesn’t slump, barring a case of the yips. But there’s easy defense and challenging defense, and while the challenging defense is more infrequent, it’s also volatile, because the percentages shift so drastically. The idea behind the expression is that defensive performance is stable. But it likely isn’t toward the extremes, because the extremes involve full-out dives and barehands and throws while falling away. It takes little time for routine defensive ability to stabilize. It takes a lot more time for extreme defensive ability to stabilize.
For Simmons to do what he’s done in the past, statistically, he’s had to be amazing at both the routine and the exceptional. Probably, based on the numbers, he was a little over his head in the exceptional department, and in a sense that’s what regression is. His numbers are down now because he’s made fewer of the insane plays, but the reality of Andrelton Simmons might lie in between, where maybe in the future he makes one or two of the plays above. We know he can do things most shortstops can’t. Andrelton Simmons has the same defensive talent as ever. All the numbers are are estimations, and it can be a challenge to estimate the rare.
Kind of cool, and I know I sound like a broken record, but even with the young guys we have everywhere, we're still not winning games, and as of this morning, we have the worst record in the league. 
Theo has the #4 next month. (sure to be a college Pitcher)
He has Shark to trade for more pieces, if he wants.
And if we finish poorly and land yet another top 1-2 pick for next year (which would again, be another college Pitcher)......
He'd suddenly have a crop of young arms, to follow up behind the entire lineup of young bats he's already got stashed.
All that, and it doesn't even include any of the internationals he has stashed, like Eloy, Mejia, Moreno, Torres, etc.
AND, on top of all that, he has a very low payroll and can start buying as soon as this summer, or next.
From Dunston, to Grace, to Maddux, to Walton, to Wood, to Prior the Cubs have NEVER been able to use their farm system for more than a player at a time. They get 1-2 nice young pieces and can't follow up with more young talent behind them. Eventually that dries them out, and they languish.
In like 3 years, Theo has completely overhauled the entire system, got out from all the ridiculous contracts we had built up, and now has a chance to start bringing up player after player in the next 18 months or so.
Will it work? I have no idea. But they are a helluva lot stronger now than they were 5 years ago when we had like 8 horrible contracts to deal with and almost zero young guys worth doing anything with.
Theo has the #4 next month. (sure to be a college Pitcher)
He has Shark to trade for more pieces, if he wants.
And if we finish poorly and land yet another top 1-2 pick for next year (which would again, be another college Pitcher)......
He'd suddenly have a crop of young arms, to follow up behind the entire lineup of young bats he's already got stashed.
All that, and it doesn't even include any of the internationals he has stashed, like Eloy, Mejia, Moreno, Torres, etc.
AND, on top of all that, he has a very low payroll and can start buying as soon as this summer, or next.
From Dunston, to Grace, to Maddux, to Walton, to Wood, to Prior the Cubs have NEVER been able to use their farm system for more than a player at a time. They get 1-2 nice young pieces and can't follow up with more young talent behind them. Eventually that dries them out, and they languish.
In like 3 years, Theo has completely overhauled the entire system, got out from all the ridiculous contracts we had built up, and now has a chance to start bringing up player after player in the next 18 months or so.
Will it work? I have no idea. But they are a helluva lot stronger now than they were 5 years ago when we had like 8 horrible contracts to deal with and almost zero young guys worth doing anything with.
- 37,531
- 13,031
CC is out until July...
This further solidifies in my mind they are going to be big players again this offseason.
This further solidifies in my mind they are going to be big players again this offseason.
- 21,784
- 2,957
It wouldn't be an MLB offseason without the Yankees spending big.
- 39,347
- 40,804
if anyone is giving hanley over 130 mil, its the yankees.
LA loves him and he loves LA, but not that number. Ill see you in pinstripes hanley
- 39,347
- 40,804
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T0INE
formerly toine2983
- 67,321
- 73,817
Boss move.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- 6,596
- 2,147
Saw that earlier, pimp.
jewbacca
Banned
- 3,349
- 508
Jason Werth dropping flyballs 
Boss move.
That kid gonna have the ladies lined up someday. He was smooth with it too.
- 30,498
- 5,958
That was
mr marcus
Banned
- 26,572
- 5,415
Jason Werth dropping flyballs
Always a weird error when strasburg pitches
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- 25,730
- 2,900
Buckner E3 jersey
DeadsetAce
Supporter
- 107,231
- 53,413
- 3,142
- 1,904
Boss move.
He was real smooth with it
- 27,111
- 14,584
these reds nats game lasting forever
- 6,463
- 1,844
First Phillips, now Hamilton. Game should've been over twice...on to the 15th.
- Status
