2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Is Jake Arrieta the New Jesse Chavez?.

Corey Kluber gave us Kluberization: the ditching of a bad four-seam for a better two-seamer. Dallas Keuchel gave us The Keuchel Excercise: the turfing of a bad curve for a better slider. Is Jake Arrieta following the Jesse Chavez Legacy? It certainly looks like he’s in the process of a major change in his pitching mix, and it might be what allows him to finally make good on all the promise that he’s shown to date. It should at least help him improve his command.

Jesse Chavez dropped his four-seam fastballs for a cutter, for the most part. That was important because of his iffy command. You need your fastballs for strikes, and look at his relevant career rates on the four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter, courtesy BrooksBaseball:

Pitch Type Ball Whiffs GB%
Fourseam 34.30% 8.29% 26.64%
Sinker 32.17% 4.96% 48.18%
Cutter 29.82% 9.06% 42.46%
Looks pretty clear that the cutter is a better pitch than his four-seam fastball. And so he’s gone from using the four-seamer 30+% of the time years ago to less than 3% this year. And the cutter is up to 40%, or second-highest in baseball. And his walk rate is at a career-best.

For more evidence that Chavez is using his cutter as a fastball, let’s look at his usage per count. Fastball usage in baseball is highest in 3-0, 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, and 0-0 counts respectively. Four-seamers and two-seamers are used 65% of the time in those counts. Cutters and sliders are used 17% of the time. Chavez uses his fastball in those counts 41% of the time, and uses his cutter 34% of the time.

Let’s look at the relevant fastball rates for our new Jesse Chavez candidate, Jake Arrieta. Here they are over the last three years. (The broadcast team calls Arrieta’s slider a cutter, and so we’ll go with their name for the pitch.)

Pitch Type Ball Whiffs GB%
Fourseam 38.08% 6.95% 36.17%
Sinker 35.37% 4.79% 46.20%
Cutter 36.42% 13.20% 39.66%
It’s not as clean-cut here. The cutter does better than his four-seamer, if not by the same margins. This year, though, the margins have increased — his ball rate on the slider is down below 30%. It certainly looks like Arrieta has begun to follow the path set forth by Chavez:

Pitch Type 27-May 3-Jun 8-Jun 13-Jun 18-Jun
Fourseam 25.5% 17.3% 11.8% 23.2% 23.8%
Sinker 36.2% 27.0% 31.2% 10.1% 25.7%
Cutter 12.8% 26.0% 34.4% 43.4% 32.3%
He’s never used the cutter more than 15% for a season, and now he’s doubling that number regularly all of a sudden. Maybe we can believe his improved walk rate.

But there’s more to it than just raw usage — Arrieta was also using the pitch in fastball counts in yesterday’s seven-inning, 11-strikeout, one-walk win. His first pitch of the game was a cutter, and he threw the cutter on the first pitch against a third of the batters he saw. That’s almost three times higher than his first pitch cutter usage over the last three years (12%) and higher than the league’s first pitch cutter/slider usage as well (17.6%). That trend holds for those last five games, when Arrieta has used his cutter 24% in the fastball counts described above (57% for his fastballs). Not quite as stark as Chavez, but still different than league average.

Of course there are risks with this approach. Dan Duquette banned the cutter from the Orioles’ organization, and it looks like the “baby slider” version of the cutter might have some bad velocity outcomes. Dan Haren, the starter that’s currently throwing the most cutters in baseball, admits that he agrees that the cutter causes velocity loss. Then you have to add in injury risk. Jeff Zimmerman has found increased injury risk among heavy breaking ball users, and even if the ASMI doesn’t agree, there are others that back Zimmerman’s findings.

But, 450 innings into a career that has seen results that don’t follow his upside, and still sporting a fastball averaging nearly 94 mph, Arrieta has velocity to lose and command to gain. Now he’s got his walk rate down to a career best at least partly due to throwing his cutter more often in fastball counts, and he may have that in common with Jesse Chavez. All it took was a new approach.

Prospect Watch: Heaney, Pino and Parker Debut.

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Florida Marlins (Profile)
Level: MLB Age: 23 Top-15: 1st Top-100: 31st
Line: (Triple-A) 23.0 IP, 10.57 K/9, 0.78 BB/9, .39 HR/9, 2.07 FIP
Summary
The Marlins have called up their top prospect, Andrew Heaney. He will debut tonight against the Mets and Zack Wheeler.

Notes
After dominating Double-A and Triple-A, Andrew Heaney is set to make his Major League debut two years after being drafted. As an advanced pitcher out of Oklahoma State University, the Marlins expected Heaney would move through their system quickly. The young left hander made a sparse 36 starts across two partial and one full season.

His strength is command/control. Heaney features a simple, effortless delivery from a low 3/4 arm slot that he repeats with consistency. Primarily, he works off his low 90s fastball that features sink and runs away from right handed hitters. It’s complemented by a tight slider and an a change up.

The Marlins have publicly stated Heaney’s workload will be limited to keep him available should they reach the playoffs. As of this morning, Miami sits just two games back of Washington in the loss column.It will be interesting to watch Heaney’s young career bloomsom through the lens of this decision. Another important note is that Heaney’s call-up should have been late enough in the season to prevent him from becoming Super-Two eligible.

***
Kyle Parker, 1B/OF, Rockies (Profile)
Level: MLB Age: 24.8 Top-15: Top-100: N/A
Line: 277 PA, 19.1 K%, 7.6 BB%, .292/.347/.478 (wRC+ 113)
Summary
Injuries have forced the Rockies to promote former first round pick Kyle Parker.

Notes
At draft time, Parker was thought to be a difficult sign due to his prowess at Clemson… playing football… as a quarterback. It’s an impressive pedigree, on paper. The expectation, or least my expectation, prior to watching Parker was the presence of some semblance of athleticism. More Andrew Luck, less Jared Lorenzen, perhaps. Though, once I had the opportunity to see him, it was clear Parker would provide minimal, if any, defensive value in the outfield. Lumbering is an apt description of his mobility.

Parker is a short, right-handed power hitter who has benefited, and will continue to benefit, from playing the Colorado Rockies’ organization where the system is littered with hitters’ parks. His power is present in game situations and he has the contact ability to hit home runs at the MLB level, but he’s really a one dimensional player. Colleague Hulet summed him up well: “Parker … has a shot at developing into a modest big league corner outfielder or first baseman. More than likely, though, he’ll end up as a platoon outfielder/first baseman or powerful bat off the bench.”

Thus far, Parker has had 5 MLB plate appearances in 3 games. He’s 0-5 with 4 strikeouts.

***
Yohan Pino, RHP, Minnisota Twins (Profile)
Level: MLB Age: 30.5 Top-15: N/A Top-100: N/A
Line: (Triple-A) 61.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9, 3.70 FIP
Summary
After nine seasons in the minor leagues, Twins starter Yohan Pino will debut tonight against the Chicago White Sox and Jose Quintana.

Notes
If Pino is not remembered for his debut and the myriad of wine puns surely to follow, Twins fans will always be grateful to him for teaching their top pitching prospect Alex Meyer his pitch-fork change up. The addition of Pino’s change to Meyer’s overpowering arsenal has helped Meyer dominate in 2014.

Pino is unlikely to be as effective as Meyer, but the Twins praise his poise and intelligence on the mound. Of course, Pino has been in the Minor Leagues for nearly a decade, half that time with the Twins, and they never felt he was a viable option in the past. He’s not overpowering. He works in the high 80s with a big looping curve. In all likelihood, Pino is will only hold the rotation spot for a handful of starters prior to passing the baton to Alex Meyer or Trevor May.

Aroldis Chapman’s Cruel Experiment.

Which pitcher in baseball has the best fastball? Aroldis Chapman. This isn’t one of those everyone’s-opinion-is-valid situations. The answer is Aroldis Chapman. While I’ll grant that the real, absolute answer is unknowable, based on the things we know, Chapman has the best heat, and that’s basically why he’s long been one of the best relievers. He’s thrown a slider, too, to keep people honest, but he’s thrown it just often enough for honesty, and he’s thrived with the heater. He’s the owner of the fastest pitch thrown in the PITCHf/x era.

So you can imagine what it’s like to face Chapman in the box. I’m kidding, it’s unimaginable, and you should be thankful for that, because you don’t want to experience what those players experience. Imagine preparing for that kind of fastball. Imagine not knowing where it’s going to be. Imagine having the sense that maybe, just maybe, he’s going to throw a wrinkle. But you basically have to sit fastball. There would be two worst nightmares: a fastball high and tight, and a changeup.

Uh oh.

700


(Source: Texas Leaguers)

Back in spring training, Chapman was throwing a lot of a changeup. Then he got hurt, badly hurt, horrifyingly hurt, then he got better and came back. Since coming back, Chapman has thrown a lot of a changeup, that he hasn’t thrown before. When he was a starter, he had a changeup in his repertoire. When he shifted to relief, it basically disappeared, and if he ever threw a change, he didn’t do so more than a handful of times. The changeup, now, is just part of his arsenal, and it hovers around 90 miles per hour. Which means Aroldis Chapman, an all-time dominant reliever, has increased his repertoire by 50%. And so far this season, he’s struck out 54% of the batters he’s faced.

Some of the time, it’s like nothing has changed. Chapman has still been the familiar Chapman against left-handed hitters, which is to say he’s been fastball/slider and untouchable. But, a year ago, against righties, Chapman threw 86% fastballs and 14% sliders. This season, against righties, he’s thrown 57% fastballs, 27% sliders, and 16% changeups. His fastball rate is way down on the first pitch. It’s way down with the batter ahead. It’s way down with the count even. It’s way down with the pitcher ahead. It’s way down with two strikes. Aroldis Chapman isn’t a completely different pitcher, but he has evolved in a way that isn’t some coincidence, that isn’t statistical noise. There’s no small sample size to worry about, here — Chapman just has a changeup now. He likes it.

So does Bryan Price:

“And it’s a good changeup; it’s a really good changeup. I do believe that it’s going to be a much more substantial part of his repertoire than we’ve ever seen before, because not only is it a good pitch, it’s a controllable pitch for him, and it certainly plays well for a guy on those days when maybe he doesn’t have that plus-plus-plus velocity.”

Interestingly, the changeup hasn’t been used as a putaway pitch. Chapman’s thrown eight with no strikes, 22 with one strike, and five with two strikes. It’s been a weapon to get him ahead or put him in a putaway count. There’s a confidence in that pitch, already, that one might not expect.

Unsurprisingly, the pitch has gone for a lot of balls. Batters haven’t offered too much, and Chapman is still harnessing the movement. But here’s by far the clearest idea of what the pitch can do for him, and for the rest of his repertoire. Against the changeup, batters have attempted 14 swings. Of those 14 swings, precisely zero have made contact.

In other words, Chapman’s changeup is running a 0.0% contact rate. This is being written before Wednesday’s Reds game, so maybe this info’s already outdated, but this is at least what the info looked like once. The changeup has left batters utterly helpless, just like you’d think a changeup would do when it’s coming from a guy who throws 100 with a sharp, biting slider. At a certain velocity threshold, you just can’t hope to see and react. If Chapman isn’t there, he’s close.

Here’s a changeup to put a batter away:

700


Here’s a changeup to start a guy off:

700


Here’s a changeup to get back in the count:

700


Here’s a 100mph fastball right after a changeup:

700


Lefties, at least, have the good fortune of not having to deal with this. They just have to face regular old Aroldis Chapman, with the platoon disadvantage. Righties now see Chapman as a three-pitch pitcher, and what’s more is he’s avoiding predictability in any and all counts. The fastball’s always going to be more likely than anything else, but there are a pair of real alternatives, and the changeup rate might only increase still should Chapman develop a greater ability to spot it. He might not even need to be able to spot it that well. Ryan Braun, above, missed a first-pitch changeup middle-middle. There’s a difference of 10-12 actual miles per hour that looks like even more than that when you’re comparing high fastballs against low divers. By perception, the difference could be as much as 20 ticks, and then there’s the slider too.

In the short term, Aroldis Chapman should be better for this. It helps when you can add a pitch that batters almost literally can’t hit. They’ll adjust to him to some extent, but adjustments can accomplish only so much. In the long term, Chapman might be better able to stave off decline, and this isn’t going to mute any of the arguments that he should convert back to being a starter. In addition, it’s possible that, by throwing fewer burners, Chapman might do something to preserve his arm. This is already the start of a new chapter. We don’t know how it’s going to read, but we have some ideas, and a few of them are borderline inconceivable.

Already a man who could do the impossible, Aroldis Chapman has added a twist. He probably didn’t need to, but it’s also probably not going to hurt, and it might open some new doors. The man with the best fastball in baseball is leaning on his fastball less often, and he’s pitching better than ever.

He’s also throwing harder than ever. So, you know. There’s that part, too.

The Most Perfect Non-Perfect Game.

Because Hanley Ramirez sucks at playing defense, baseball will not officially recognize Clayton Kershaw‘s effort tonight as a “perfect game”. But I would like to submit that if this doesn’t qualify as a perfect game, nothing should.

28 batters came to the plate; 15 of them struck out. Of the 13 who managed to put the ball in play, nine of them hit the ball on the ground. One of the four balls hit in the air didn’t leave the infield. His FIP for the game was -0.24, because the model isn’t designed to handle dominance at this level. His xFIP was 0.19.

Here is the full list of nine inning outings with a Game Score of 102 or better, since 1914.

Kerry Wood: 105 (9 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 20 K)
Clayton Kershaw: 102 (9 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 15 K)

That’s it. That’s the entire list.

Clayton Kershaw did not retire every single batter he faced tonight, so technically, he wasn’t perfect. Screw technicalities, though; what Clayton Kershaw just did was far more impressive than going 27-up, 27-down and relying on your defense in order to do it. Clayton Kershaw just threw one of the most dominant performances in the history of baseball.

It might not have been perfect. It was better.

 
Kris Bryant homers in his first Triple A game. After hitting 22 in Double A and winning the home run derby at the All Star break.

Please be real, please be real, please be real........

man i think he is the goods.

The only thing I hope for is he doesn't go the route of Chris Davis his first few seasons in the MLB. Everyone said he had this TITANIC swing and power and for years all he did was strike out. And eventually he put it together but it took a while

:lol a lot of people wanted Bryant in the majors now, so he might have went down that path. Davis always had that issue not recognizing off speed and committing too early. He raised his fly ball rate and whacked 50. I think as long as the Cubs have him properly coached down there, he should continue growing.
 
Lmaooo Brandon Phillips is cool for that and :rollin at the fan saying Votto got feminine hips and can birth twins (-_-,)


Also ima shed a tear if the nats get this win
 
The 1 dollar pitcher strikes out the side against the defending champs to start out his oakland campaign :smoking
 
Braves win NationLols :)

The new Braves pitcher Juan Jaime looked great major league debut 98mph 79 mph curveball
 
Stayed all 13 innings tonight. What the hell is wrong with this team? Why do the Braves own their souls?

Gutless performance from Stephen Strasburg tonight :{

Even worse from Jayson Werth. But the worst part of the whole game were the Nationals "fans". Buncha lames in the crowd tonight left during the 8th inning, and even more started filing out during the 11th. By the time the Braves scored in the 13th you would've thought we were playing at Turner Field. Embarrassing. But that's DC Sports for ya.
 
Stayed all 13 innings tonight. What the hell is wrong with this team? Why do the Braves own their souls?

Gutless performance from Stephen Strasburg tonight :{

Even worse from Jayson Werth. But the worst part of the whole game were the Nationals "fans". Buncha lames in the crowd tonight left during the 8th inning, and even more started filing out during the 11th. By the time the Braves scored in the 13th you would've thought we were playing at Turner Field. Embarrassing. But that's DC Sports for ya.

Those "fans" literally sat still when Rendon hit that homer in the 9th. I wAs honestly more excited...
 
Those "fans" literally sat still when Rendon hit that homer in the 9th. I wAs honestly more excited...
You're telling me. I lost my damn voice going nuts. I can't believe they had to review it, it was obviously gone...but I still can't fathom why they weren't on their feet going wild. We just tied the game off of the best closer in the league and the team that we can't seem to beat. So pathetic.
 
Stayed all 13 innings tonight. What the hell is wrong with this team? Why do the Braves own their souls?

Gutless performance from Stephen Strasburg tonight :{

Even worse from Jayson Werth. But the worst part of the whole game were the Nationals "fans". Buncha lames in the crowd tonight left during the 8th inning, and even more started filing out during the 11th. By the time the Braves scored in the 13th you would've thought we were playing at Turner Field. Embarrassing. But that's DC Sports for ya.

:{ it was just as bad watching it on tv...braves fans were way louder :lol

When Blevins walked BJ w/ no outs I knew it was over :(
 
I'm glad that loser Don Mattingly isn't in the Hall of Fame .


Paul O'Neill was a jerk when I met him in 1996 , so F him as well.
 
:{ it was just as bad watching it on tv...braves fans were way louder :lol

When Blevins walked BJ w/ no outs I knew it was over :(
Yep, Matt Williams didn't manage the bullpen/Strasburg well last night.

Strasburg throwing so many fastballs in a row to Heyward left me scratching my head as well. Just frustrating baseball.

I'm glad that loser Don Mattingly isn't in the Hall of Fame .


Paul O'Neill was a jerk when I met him in 1996 , so F him as well.

Met Mark Grace when I was 4 at some museum in Chicago and I don't really remember it but my Dad said he was in *******.
 
So now that Trout has a signature shoe from Nike, I guess this means he's officially the face of baseball. Good for him, baseball really needs to promote their stars.
 
Freddie Freeman kills the Nationals. Is Nationals Park to Freddie Freeman like Shea to Chipper?

I swear Brock Holt plays every position. What a fantasy pickup he was for me.
 
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