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thome is the man. it's funny when arod hit 600 espn shut down and dedicated everything to it. when he eas a roid head. hof player indeed
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
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thome is the man. it's funny when arod hit 600 espn shut down and dedicated everything to it. when he eas a roid head. hof player indeed
DYNAMICS
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DYNAMICS
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Next to 600 home runs?
Cubs, Pirates signing deadline winners.
A Giant turnaround will be difficult.
Under the radar players.
Victorino and Ellsbury having the same season.
Spoiler [+]
At long last, Jim Thome hit his 600th career home run and became the eighth player in major league history to reach that milestone. Given the increase in home runs in the past 20 years, the 400-homer club has become almost old news, and hitting 500 homers is no longer an automatic ticket to Cooperstown.
But 600 homers is still a pretty rare feat -- you can count the club members without running out of fingers -- and many of the best players of this generation are likely to fall well short.
Who else will pass the 600-homer mark? Because waiting years and decades to find out isn't much fun, I used the ZiPS system to project the final home run totals for every player who looked to be even remotely on a 600-dinger trajectory. (Players like Geoff Blum or Juan Pierre need not apply.)
In ZiPS' estimation, just 10 active players other than Thome have at least a 2 percent chance to retire with at least 600 homers on their résumés.
For offensive environment, I used a level between 2010 and 2011, and I used the current home park for each player. A return to a higher level of offense or a change of park could increase or decrease each player's odds, but we don't have that information yet. For each player, I list the chances of a 600-home run career and, in parentheses, his expected career total.
[h3]Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees[/h3]100 percent (764)
Given that A-Rod is already past 600 homers, we can be pretty sure that 100 percent is accurate.
The only question surrounding A-Rod is whether he can pass Barry Bonds. ZiPS has given him a 50-50 chance for a couple of years, and he's right on target so far.
[h3]Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]95 percent (704)
Pujols is having the worst season of his career, but he's nearly three-quarters of the way to 600 and is only 31 years old.
At this point, the only thing that can really stop Prince Albert from hitting 600 is a serious injury that ends his career or completely saps his power.
[h3]Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers[/h3]47 percent (58
Cabrera is easily the likeliest of the under-30 set to hit 600 homers. Although he has never had an insane season in terms of raw homer count, he was a full-timer at age 20 and became a superstar very quickly, enabling him to hit enough homers to put him past the halfway mark by his 30th birthday.
Cabrera is an amazing all-around hitter, but a lot can happen in a decade, so he's not a shoo-in yet.
[h3]Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins[/h3]24 percent (577)
It may seem odd for a player so far from 600 to have such a good shot so early, but Stanton already has displayed elite power at the major league level and is just 21 years old.
There's also nothing to indicate that his power so far is any kind of fluke -- Stanton is a big guy who was expected to be one of the best power hitters in baseball.
[h3]Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox[/h3]11 percent (503)
Nobody has seen his chances at 600 drop more than Dunn this year. Dunn was never a great candidate to age well, but I doubt anybody expected him to go instantly from a near-guaranteed 35-homer hitter (the last year he finished with fewer than 38 home runs was 2003) to a player struggling to outslug Omar Vizquel.
Generally, players will bounce back from poor seasons -- a phenomenon that Baseball Prospectus author Bill James coined the Plexiglas Principle -- but Dunn's decline has been so severe and so sudden that I wouldn't be shocked if he was out of baseball before his contract with Chicago ended.
The best chance for White Sox fans is to hope that Dunn secretly has been playing with two broken wrists all season.
[h3]Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]10 percent (523)
Fielder is a great home run hitter, but he's only a little more than one-third of the way there.
Much of his success in this area will come down to how well his body holds up, as a lot of his ZiPS comparisons are other hefty sluggers like Boog Powell who declined pretty steeply in their early-to-mid 30s.
[h3]Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees[/h3]4 percent (515)
Teixeira no longer hits for average, but he's likely to put up his second 40-homer season this season, and he's past the halfway mark to 600.
Playing in the new Yankee Stadium helps, but he's a little behind the pace and will have to keep hitting homers at nearly his current pace into his early 40s.
[h3]Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]4 percent (420)
Like Stanton, Upton's odds are helped by the fact that he started very young, but he hasn't yet developed the power necessary to make a run at 600.
That still can happen, which is why he makes this list, but a player really needs to have a baseline expectation of 30 homers a year to accomplish the feat. Upton's not quite there yet.
[h3]Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]3 percent (48
Howard is past 30 years old and nearly a year from hitting No. 300, so his odds are long.
After two nonsuperstar seasons, Howard already appears to be in decline, and not being a regular until age 25 really hurt his chances. Still, Howard has enough raw power that he at least has a chance if he gets a second wind.
[h3]Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds[/h3]2 percent (38
Bruce has essentially the same scenario as Upton, and his shot at 600 relies on his developing even more power and avoiding injury or early decline.
Like Dunn, Vladimir Guerrero's (0 percent, 494) odds of 600 have quickly evaporated this season. Although Vlad hasn't had anywhere near as bad a year as Dunn, Vlad is also 36 and had less of a margin for error.
Paul Konerko (0 percent, 496) has had a late-career renaissance, but he'd have to hit 200 homers after age 35, and only Bonds and Hank Aaron have pulled that off. David Ortiz (0 percent, 467) is off Konerko's pace and will fall short as well.
Jose Bautista may be the scariest hitter in baseball today, but thanks to his very late development (59 homers through age 2, he'd have to average 40 homers a year through age 41, which is a very tall order. Bautista will need about 440 more homers after this season, and Bonds is the only player to hit that many after age 30.
But 600 homers is still a pretty rare feat -- you can count the club members without running out of fingers -- and many of the best players of this generation are likely to fall well short.
Who else will pass the 600-homer mark? Because waiting years and decades to find out isn't much fun, I used the ZiPS system to project the final home run totals for every player who looked to be even remotely on a 600-dinger trajectory. (Players like Geoff Blum or Juan Pierre need not apply.)
In ZiPS' estimation, just 10 active players other than Thome have at least a 2 percent chance to retire with at least 600 homers on their résumés.
For offensive environment, I used a level between 2010 and 2011, and I used the current home park for each player. A return to a higher level of offense or a change of park could increase or decrease each player's odds, but we don't have that information yet. For each player, I list the chances of a 600-home run career and, in parentheses, his expected career total.
[h3]Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees[/h3]100 percent (764)
Given that A-Rod is already past 600 homers, we can be pretty sure that 100 percent is accurate.
The only question surrounding A-Rod is whether he can pass Barry Bonds. ZiPS has given him a 50-50 chance for a couple of years, and he's right on target so far.
[h3]Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]95 percent (704)
Pujols is having the worst season of his career, but he's nearly three-quarters of the way to 600 and is only 31 years old.
At this point, the only thing that can really stop Prince Albert from hitting 600 is a serious injury that ends his career or completely saps his power.
[h3]Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers[/h3]47 percent (58
Cabrera is easily the likeliest of the under-30 set to hit 600 homers. Although he has never had an insane season in terms of raw homer count, he was a full-timer at age 20 and became a superstar very quickly, enabling him to hit enough homers to put him past the halfway mark by his 30th birthday.
Cabrera is an amazing all-around hitter, but a lot can happen in a decade, so he's not a shoo-in yet.
[h3]Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins[/h3]24 percent (577)
It may seem odd for a player so far from 600 to have such a good shot so early, but Stanton already has displayed elite power at the major league level and is just 21 years old.
There's also nothing to indicate that his power so far is any kind of fluke -- Stanton is a big guy who was expected to be one of the best power hitters in baseball.
[h3]Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox[/h3]11 percent (503)
Nobody has seen his chances at 600 drop more than Dunn this year. Dunn was never a great candidate to age well, but I doubt anybody expected him to go instantly from a near-guaranteed 35-homer hitter (the last year he finished with fewer than 38 home runs was 2003) to a player struggling to outslug Omar Vizquel.
Generally, players will bounce back from poor seasons -- a phenomenon that Baseball Prospectus author Bill James coined the Plexiglas Principle -- but Dunn's decline has been so severe and so sudden that I wouldn't be shocked if he was out of baseball before his contract with Chicago ended.
The best chance for White Sox fans is to hope that Dunn secretly has been playing with two broken wrists all season.
[h3]Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]10 percent (523)
Fielder is a great home run hitter, but he's only a little more than one-third of the way there.
Much of his success in this area will come down to how well his body holds up, as a lot of his ZiPS comparisons are other hefty sluggers like Boog Powell who declined pretty steeply in their early-to-mid 30s.
[h3]Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees[/h3]4 percent (515)
Teixeira no longer hits for average, but he's likely to put up his second 40-homer season this season, and he's past the halfway mark to 600.
Playing in the new Yankee Stadium helps, but he's a little behind the pace and will have to keep hitting homers at nearly his current pace into his early 40s.
[h3]Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]4 percent (420)
Like Stanton, Upton's odds are helped by the fact that he started very young, but he hasn't yet developed the power necessary to make a run at 600.
That still can happen, which is why he makes this list, but a player really needs to have a baseline expectation of 30 homers a year to accomplish the feat. Upton's not quite there yet.
[h3]Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]3 percent (48
Howard is past 30 years old and nearly a year from hitting No. 300, so his odds are long.
After two nonsuperstar seasons, Howard already appears to be in decline, and not being a regular until age 25 really hurt his chances. Still, Howard has enough raw power that he at least has a chance if he gets a second wind.
[h3]Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds[/h3]2 percent (38
Bruce has essentially the same scenario as Upton, and his shot at 600 relies on his developing even more power and avoiding injury or early decline.
Like Dunn, Vladimir Guerrero's (0 percent, 494) odds of 600 have quickly evaporated this season. Although Vlad hasn't had anywhere near as bad a year as Dunn, Vlad is also 36 and had less of a margin for error.
Paul Konerko (0 percent, 496) has had a late-career renaissance, but he'd have to hit 200 homers after age 35, and only Bonds and Hank Aaron have pulled that off. David Ortiz (0 percent, 467) is off Konerko's pace and will fall short as well.
Jose Bautista may be the scariest hitter in baseball today, but thanks to his very late development (59 homers through age 2
, he'd have to average 40 homers a year through age 41, which is a very tall order. Bautista will need about 440 more homers after this season, and Bonds is the only player to hit that many after age 30.Cubs, Pirates signing deadline winners.
Spoiler [+]
I don't know whether anything is really surprising at MLB's signing deadline anymore, given the strategies by so many clubs to ramp up spending on amateur talent (which remains a tremendous value for MLB clubs). If anything, it's surprising that any player turns down the potentially life-changing money offered by big league clubs every summer. Because of that, I wrote before the signing deadline that if you predicted that each first-round pick would end up signing, you'd be correct on at least 93 percent of them, meaning that I thought at least 31 of the 33 would sign. As it turns out, all but one did, and the one who didn't, Toronto selection Tyler Beede, garnered as much attention as any other unsigned first-round pick leading into the deadline.
Becky CrabtreeSuspense wasn't justified, as all but one first-rounder signed. Even Bubba Starling.
It seems that Beede believed that other clubs would have offered him $3 million had Toronto not taken him, which may or may not be the case. That said, even though Vanderbilt is one of the top programs in college baseball and has a great track record of developing pitching, I don't think Beede is likely to get much more than that in three years. He's polished for his age but doesn't have the huge projection that might push his fastball to the mid-90s and slide him up to the top 2-3 spots in the draft, which is where he'd have to go to justify the decision on financial grounds.
As for Toronto, it switched to its backup plans (as predicted) in right-hander Kevin Comer and left-hander Daniel Norris, landing two other top-50 talents while still getting an extra (but unprotected) pick back in next year's draft. Toronto also landed Texas prep third baseman Matt Dean, who looked like a probable first-rounder coming out of his junior year but struggled in the 12 months leading up to the draft; for a 15th-round pick and a six-figure bonus, that's a strong gamble. The Blue Jays spent money throughout the summer to bring upside into the system, boosting what was already among the majors' top three farm systems.
Some other teams with notable deadline days:
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]
The Cubs took a bunch of tough-sign players who slipped not just on bonus demands but also because of baseball concerns, from Dillon Maples' arm action to Shawon Dunston Jr.'s disappointing performance this past spring to Daniel Vogelbach's DH-ness to Trevor Gretzky's general rawness in all areas of the game. They spent the money to at least get those players in the bank, topping them off with first-round pick Javier Baez, who immediately becomes the system's best long-term prospect. Scouting director Tim Wilken has always marched to his own beat, but you won't find many scouts willing to bet against him, and he did go for major upside on those picks as well as earlier signing Zeke DeVoss. The club has had a horrible year on the field, magnified by the Carlos Zambrano fiasco but really just caused by a terrible roster and front-office delusions of grandeur, so this draft class has to be a bright spot for eternally suffering Cubs fans.
[h3]Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
The Pirates were one of seven teams to land two of the top 20 players on my final pre-draft ranking -- the others are Washington, Arizona, Milwaukee, Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland -- but their path to that point was the most surprising of the group, as they signed Josh Bell to a $5 million deal, one of the richest bonuses ever handed out to a high school position player. Bell had sent a letter to all 30 clubs before the draft saying he didn't intend to sign -- although those letters are, as this demonstrates, worth about as much as the paper they're written on. As recently as two weeks ago he told a member of the University of Texas coaching staff that he was coming to school; he was arguably the most unsignable player among those who would have gone in the first round in a straight draft regardless of bonus demands. Pittsburgh's gamble with a fairly high pick (first of the second round), along with its willingness to stretch its draft budget, paid off at the deadline, as the Pirates landed him and top overall pick Gerrit Cole for a combined $13 million. Cole projects comfortably as a No. 1 starter with a huge fastball and out-pitch changeup, while Bell, a center fielder in college, has a gorgeous left-handed swing but has to move to left field and will need to work on his swing from the right side. I do know of scouts who thought Bell was the best pure bat in the draft, and of course Cole was one of several candidates for the best overall arm. Needless to say, this could end up a landmark draft class for the Pirates.
[h3]Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nats ran the table, landing all three of their first/sandwich-round picks (all, coincidentally, advised by Scott Boras) for premium dollars, including a surprising $3 million for Brian Goodwin. Goodwin was effectively a college sophomore, a junior college player who was set to transfer to South Carolina for the fall to re-enter next year's weak draft as one of the top two or three college position players in the class. Anthony Rendon may end up at second base because of the presence of Ryan Zimmerman, but once Rendon's shoulder is healthy, his bat and eye should let him advance quickly through the minors. Alex Meyer should at least begin his pro career as a starter after getting the $2 million he turned down in 2008 from Boston, but he needs to show better command and control to remain there despite a high-maintenance delivery. Still, it's a tremendous top three for the Nats.
... and then there's the Matt Purke deal. Although not as good as what he turned down from Texas out of high school, Purke got paid well over and above anything justified by his performance and health this past spring. I saw Purke twice but never saw him throw a pitch faster than 91 mph, and his velocity dropped in each of the two outings. He missed time with soreness in his shoulder.
Speaking of TCU, when is the camera eye going to turn on coach Jim Schlossnagle, who saw both his Friday and Saturday starters get hurt this season? He sent Kyle Winkler out to pitch the weekend before the draft, knowing that Winkler already had a stress reaction in the elbow, simply because he valued the potential win for his school over the individual player's career. What ultimately became a stress fracture may have cost Winkler a half-million dollars or more, and it is moves like that that make me glad to see that so many high school pitchers chose pro ball over college this year.
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]
The Padres also had a quartet of tough signs, with first pick Cory Spangenberg already in the bank. They managed to sign three of them, led by right-hander Joe Ross at $2.75 million. Ross was the backup plan for Cleveland with the eighth overall pick and ended up getting almost as much as the actual eighth pick, shortstop Francisco Lindor. He's an athletic, high-upside arm whose delivery, fortunately, looks nothing like that of his older brother Tyson. San Diego also took advantage of catcher Austin Hedges' desire to stay in Southern California, landing one of the best defensive catchers anyone can remember seeing at the high school or collegiate levels. They also added South Florida right-hander Michael Kelly, a projectable arm who'll touch 94 now and has a sharp curveball he doesn't command yet. The one who got away was Charlotte high school catcher Brett Austin, a recent convert to the position who heads to NC State instead. But the group the Padres signed gave them one of the better draft classes and injects some much-needed upside into the system after years of college-heavy drafts under previous GM Kevin Towers.
[h3]Final thought (for now)[/h3]
Remember when Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley wanted $30 million and $20 million, respectively? That didn't quite work out, and I'm surprised by how little both players got relative to their talent levels. Both came in under Jameson Taillon's deal from 2010 ($6.5 million), which was itself under Rick Porcello's major league deal, worth a guaranteed $7.285 million over four years, but in reality worth at least $8.76 million over six years unless he was released before 2011. Bundy earned plaudits as perhaps the most major league-ready high school pitcher in memory and probably would have gone first or second overall if not for the industry bias against shorter right-handed pitchers; for him to come in below Taillon is a feather in Baltimore's cap. Bradley, who received $5 million over five years, got less than fellow QB/RHP Zach Lee, who didn't have Bradley's velocity or sheer size, received last year. The Orioles and the Diamondbacks should be ecstatic to add potential No. 1 starters to their systems and to do so at a reasonable cost.
Becky CrabtreeSuspense wasn't justified, as all but one first-rounder signed. Even Bubba Starling.
It seems that Beede believed that other clubs would have offered him $3 million had Toronto not taken him, which may or may not be the case. That said, even though Vanderbilt is one of the top programs in college baseball and has a great track record of developing pitching, I don't think Beede is likely to get much more than that in three years. He's polished for his age but doesn't have the huge projection that might push his fastball to the mid-90s and slide him up to the top 2-3 spots in the draft, which is where he'd have to go to justify the decision on financial grounds.
As for Toronto, it switched to its backup plans (as predicted) in right-hander Kevin Comer and left-hander Daniel Norris, landing two other top-50 talents while still getting an extra (but unprotected) pick back in next year's draft. Toronto also landed Texas prep third baseman Matt Dean, who looked like a probable first-rounder coming out of his junior year but struggled in the 12 months leading up to the draft; for a 15th-round pick and a six-figure bonus, that's a strong gamble. The Blue Jays spent money throughout the summer to bring upside into the system, boosting what was already among the majors' top three farm systems.
Some other teams with notable deadline days:
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]
The Cubs took a bunch of tough-sign players who slipped not just on bonus demands but also because of baseball concerns, from Dillon Maples' arm action to Shawon Dunston Jr.'s disappointing performance this past spring to Daniel Vogelbach's DH-ness to Trevor Gretzky's general rawness in all areas of the game. They spent the money to at least get those players in the bank, topping them off with first-round pick Javier Baez, who immediately becomes the system's best long-term prospect. Scouting director Tim Wilken has always marched to his own beat, but you won't find many scouts willing to bet against him, and he did go for major upside on those picks as well as earlier signing Zeke DeVoss. The club has had a horrible year on the field, magnified by the Carlos Zambrano fiasco but really just caused by a terrible roster and front-office delusions of grandeur, so this draft class has to be a bright spot for eternally suffering Cubs fans.
[h3]Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
The Pirates were one of seven teams to land two of the top 20 players on my final pre-draft ranking -- the others are Washington, Arizona, Milwaukee, Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland -- but their path to that point was the most surprising of the group, as they signed Josh Bell to a $5 million deal, one of the richest bonuses ever handed out to a high school position player. Bell had sent a letter to all 30 clubs before the draft saying he didn't intend to sign -- although those letters are, as this demonstrates, worth about as much as the paper they're written on. As recently as two weeks ago he told a member of the University of Texas coaching staff that he was coming to school; he was arguably the most unsignable player among those who would have gone in the first round in a straight draft regardless of bonus demands. Pittsburgh's gamble with a fairly high pick (first of the second round), along with its willingness to stretch its draft budget, paid off at the deadline, as the Pirates landed him and top overall pick Gerrit Cole for a combined $13 million. Cole projects comfortably as a No. 1 starter with a huge fastball and out-pitch changeup, while Bell, a center fielder in college, has a gorgeous left-handed swing but has to move to left field and will need to work on his swing from the right side. I do know of scouts who thought Bell was the best pure bat in the draft, and of course Cole was one of several candidates for the best overall arm. Needless to say, this could end up a landmark draft class for the Pirates.
[h3]Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nats ran the table, landing all three of their first/sandwich-round picks (all, coincidentally, advised by Scott Boras) for premium dollars, including a surprising $3 million for Brian Goodwin. Goodwin was effectively a college sophomore, a junior college player who was set to transfer to South Carolina for the fall to re-enter next year's weak draft as one of the top two or three college position players in the class. Anthony Rendon may end up at second base because of the presence of Ryan Zimmerman, but once Rendon's shoulder is healthy, his bat and eye should let him advance quickly through the minors. Alex Meyer should at least begin his pro career as a starter after getting the $2 million he turned down in 2008 from Boston, but he needs to show better command and control to remain there despite a high-maintenance delivery. Still, it's a tremendous top three for the Nats.
... and then there's the Matt Purke deal. Although not as good as what he turned down from Texas out of high school, Purke got paid well over and above anything justified by his performance and health this past spring. I saw Purke twice but never saw him throw a pitch faster than 91 mph, and his velocity dropped in each of the two outings. He missed time with soreness in his shoulder.
Speaking of TCU, when is the camera eye going to turn on coach Jim Schlossnagle, who saw both his Friday and Saturday starters get hurt this season? He sent Kyle Winkler out to pitch the weekend before the draft, knowing that Winkler already had a stress reaction in the elbow, simply because he valued the potential win for his school over the individual player's career. What ultimately became a stress fracture may have cost Winkler a half-million dollars or more, and it is moves like that that make me glad to see that so many high school pitchers chose pro ball over college this year.
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]
The Padres also had a quartet of tough signs, with first pick Cory Spangenberg already in the bank. They managed to sign three of them, led by right-hander Joe Ross at $2.75 million. Ross was the backup plan for Cleveland with the eighth overall pick and ended up getting almost as much as the actual eighth pick, shortstop Francisco Lindor. He's an athletic, high-upside arm whose delivery, fortunately, looks nothing like that of his older brother Tyson. San Diego also took advantage of catcher Austin Hedges' desire to stay in Southern California, landing one of the best defensive catchers anyone can remember seeing at the high school or collegiate levels. They also added South Florida right-hander Michael Kelly, a projectable arm who'll touch 94 now and has a sharp curveball he doesn't command yet. The one who got away was Charlotte high school catcher Brett Austin, a recent convert to the position who heads to NC State instead. But the group the Padres signed gave them one of the better draft classes and injects some much-needed upside into the system after years of college-heavy drafts under previous GM Kevin Towers.
[h3]Final thought (for now)[/h3]
Remember when Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley wanted $30 million and $20 million, respectively? That didn't quite work out, and I'm surprised by how little both players got relative to their talent levels. Both came in under Jameson Taillon's deal from 2010 ($6.5 million), which was itself under Rick Porcello's major league deal, worth a guaranteed $7.285 million over four years, but in reality worth at least $8.76 million over six years unless he was released before 2011. Bundy earned plaudits as perhaps the most major league-ready high school pitcher in memory and probably would have gone first or second overall if not for the industry bias against shorter right-handed pitchers; for him to come in below Taillon is a feather in Baltimore's cap. Bradley, who received $5 million over five years, got less than fellow QB/RHP Zach Lee, who didn't have Bradley's velocity or sheer size, received last year. The Orioles and the Diamondbacks should be ecstatic to add potential No. 1 starters to their systems and to do so at a reasonable cost.
A Giant turnaround will be difficult.
Spoiler [+]
Bruce Bochy is in his 17th season as a manager and has a sense of history, which he will need to draw on today. A year ago to the day, the Giants were in serious trouble. They had lost eight of their previous 10 games, Tim Lincecum couldn't get anybody out, and they were 3½ games out of first place -- and in fact, the deficit by which they trailed San Diego would reach 6½ games on Aug. 25. So San Francisco knows something about taking punches, and then climbing off the mat.
AP Photo/David ZalubowskiGiants manager Bruce Bochy is facing a challenging stretch run as the Giants look to win the NL West.
They'll have to do it again, if they are to play any October baseball. Carlos Beltran and Sergio Romo may well be added to the disabled list today, Pablo Sandoval had to come out of Monday's game in the first inning after fouling a ball off his foot, and in the ninth inning, San Francisco took a body blow -- blowing a two-run lead in a 5-4 loss to the Braves. It was a crushing loss, as Andrew Baggarly writes.
I watched a lot of this game and closer Brian Wilson -- who has had back issues -- never seemed comfortable at all, stretching his back between pitches. He struggled like crazy to throw strikes to his arm side -- inside to right-handed hitters, away to left-handed hitters -- which became a serious problem as the long inning wore on, because the left-handed hitting Freddie Freeman had a pretty good idea about what pitch Wilson was going to throw, and where he would have to throw it. San Francisco is now 2½ games behind in the NL West; they will be without Sandoval for at least a couple of days, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if Wilson wasn't available for the next day or two.
The Diamondbacks are about to embark on a tough road trip, but don't confuse Arizona with the 2010 Padres; San Diego was an offensively challenged team that achieved far beyond anyone's expectations, and in September, Mat Latos slumped and the Padres' offense dried up. The Diamondbacks won't slump in the same manner; they have a deeper lineup, ranking third in the National League in runs scored, and they will probably get some pitching help in September from the likes of Trevor Bauer. Chris Young has worked through his past offensive struggles, as Nick Piecoro writes.
There is one significant difference between the Giants of last season and this year's version: They still have no idea from where their offense will come, with Beltran and Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez out of the lineup. San Francisco ranks 29th among 30 teams in runs scored, and there are no signs of a breakout, no indication that any of the guys who earned rings last year are suddenly going to surge.
And you can bet the folks with Major League Baseball are rooting like crazy for the defending champion to at least stay in contention, because the meaningful playoff races are evaporating -- the Brewers won Monday with some spectacular defense, and the Cardinals lost, pushing Milwaukee's lead to six games, and the Rangers beat the Angels to drive their lead in the AL West to five games. Besides the benign battle between the Red Sox and Yankees over playoff seeding, only the AL Central and NL West races feature second-place teams within five games of first place.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• After the stories we had on Twins DH Jim Thome last week, a number of fans emailed in their experiences of meeting the slugger in the past, all about the same: He could not have been more gracious. Which is why everybody seems thrilled for Thome, after he clubbed his 600th homer with a couple of shots on Monday night; Tigers starter Justin Verlander took time to salute Thome on Twitter after the game.
Maybe the most touching moment of the night came after the game, when Thome was interviewed on the field with Chuck Thome, his father, and Chuck was asked about his feelings -- and as he struggled with his emotions, he gently encouraged the interviewer to ask his son the questions; Chuck Thome was overcome.
Jim Thome thought of his deceased mother, as La Velle Neal writes. Thome had wondered if he would reach 600, as Brian Murphy writes.
A mutual friend says Thome has thought about retiring after hitting No. 600, to be at home with his kids. We'll see.
From Stats & Information: It was his the 48th multi-HR game of his career and the seventh in which two went to the opposite field. The fact he went the other way is appropriate since he has been the game's best at that skill over the past three seasons. He has hit 29 home runs to left field in that span and leads the majors in batting average (.465) and slugging percentage (1.10 to the opposite field.
When Babe Ruth became the first member of the 600-HR club, it took 13,911 days for a second member to join him, and that was Willie Mays. Just 15,174 days later, Thome makes it eight:
[h4]600 Home Run Club[/h4]
Days between new members joining
[th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Date of membership[/th][th=""]Days since last member joined[/th]
It was one year and 11 days ago that Alex Rodriguez became the seventh member of the 600-homer club, as he hit his 600th on Aug. 4 last season. Thome becomes the fourth member of the club to hit his 600th in the month of August.
AP Photo/David ZalubowskiGiants manager Bruce Bochy is facing a challenging stretch run as the Giants look to win the NL West.
They'll have to do it again, if they are to play any October baseball. Carlos Beltran and Sergio Romo may well be added to the disabled list today, Pablo Sandoval had to come out of Monday's game in the first inning after fouling a ball off his foot, and in the ninth inning, San Francisco took a body blow -- blowing a two-run lead in a 5-4 loss to the Braves. It was a crushing loss, as Andrew Baggarly writes.
I watched a lot of this game and closer Brian Wilson -- who has had back issues -- never seemed comfortable at all, stretching his back between pitches. He struggled like crazy to throw strikes to his arm side -- inside to right-handed hitters, away to left-handed hitters -- which became a serious problem as the long inning wore on, because the left-handed hitting Freddie Freeman had a pretty good idea about what pitch Wilson was going to throw, and where he would have to throw it. San Francisco is now 2½ games behind in the NL West; they will be without Sandoval for at least a couple of days, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if Wilson wasn't available for the next day or two.
The Diamondbacks are about to embark on a tough road trip, but don't confuse Arizona with the 2010 Padres; San Diego was an offensively challenged team that achieved far beyond anyone's expectations, and in September, Mat Latos slumped and the Padres' offense dried up. The Diamondbacks won't slump in the same manner; they have a deeper lineup, ranking third in the National League in runs scored, and they will probably get some pitching help in September from the likes of Trevor Bauer. Chris Young has worked through his past offensive struggles, as Nick Piecoro writes.
There is one significant difference between the Giants of last season and this year's version: They still have no idea from where their offense will come, with Beltran and Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez out of the lineup. San Francisco ranks 29th among 30 teams in runs scored, and there are no signs of a breakout, no indication that any of the guys who earned rings last year are suddenly going to surge.
And you can bet the folks with Major League Baseball are rooting like crazy for the defending champion to at least stay in contention, because the meaningful playoff races are evaporating -- the Brewers won Monday with some spectacular defense, and the Cardinals lost, pushing Milwaukee's lead to six games, and the Rangers beat the Angels to drive their lead in the AL West to five games. Besides the benign battle between the Red Sox and Yankees over playoff seeding, only the AL Central and NL West races feature second-place teams within five games of first place.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• After the stories we had on Twins DH Jim Thome last week, a number of fans emailed in their experiences of meeting the slugger in the past, all about the same: He could not have been more gracious. Which is why everybody seems thrilled for Thome, after he clubbed his 600th homer with a couple of shots on Monday night; Tigers starter Justin Verlander took time to salute Thome on Twitter after the game.
Maybe the most touching moment of the night came after the game, when Thome was interviewed on the field with Chuck Thome, his father, and Chuck was asked about his feelings -- and as he struggled with his emotions, he gently encouraged the interviewer to ask his son the questions; Chuck Thome was overcome.
Jim Thome thought of his deceased mother, as La Velle Neal writes. Thome had wondered if he would reach 600, as Brian Murphy writes.
A mutual friend says Thome has thought about retiring after hitting No. 600, to be at home with his kids. We'll see.
From Stats & Information: It was his the 48th multi-HR game of his career and the seventh in which two went to the opposite field. The fact he went the other way is appropriate since he has been the game's best at that skill over the past three seasons. He has hit 29 home runs to left field in that span and leads the majors in batting average (.465) and slugging percentage (1.10
to the opposite field.When Babe Ruth became the first member of the 600-HR club, it took 13,911 days for a second member to join him, and that was Willie Mays. Just 15,174 days later, Thome makes it eight:
[h4]600 Home Run Club[/h4]
Days between new members joining
| Babe Ruth | August 21, 1931 | -- |
| Willie Mays | Sept. 22, 1969 | 13,911 |
| Hank Aaron | April 27, 1971 | 581 |
| Barry Bonds | August 9, 2002 | 11,304 |
| Sammy Sosa | June 20, 2007 | 1,775 |
| Ken Griffey | June 9, 2008 | 354 |
| Alex Rodriguez | August 4, 2010 | 785 |
| Jim Thome | August 15, 2011 | 375 |
It was one year and 11 days ago that Alex Rodriguez became the seventh member of the 600-homer club, as he hit his 600th on Aug. 4 last season. Thome becomes the fourth member of the club to hit his 600th in the month of August.
Under the radar players.
Spoiler [+]
As the season rounds the corner and heads for the home stretch, it’s pretty easy to separate the haves from the have-nots. Whether discussing players like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Bautista leading the charge on the WAR leaderboards, or Adam Dunn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka facing the opposite direction, it’s certainly not difficult to skim the top or bottom of the lists. With today’s entry however, we’ll focus on a few players who have flown under the radar, perhaps outperforming expectations or simply shining despite relative obscurity.
As I’m fully aware, it’s hard to fathom a scenario in which a Yankee could fly under the radar, but for a second straight season, outfielder Brett Gardner has done just that. Gardner’s triple-slash of .285/.366/.404 is plenty nice for a leadoff hitter in front of the second-highest scoring team in the American League, but it’s his defense that sets him apart. At 19.0 runs above average for left fielders, Gardner is far and away the best defensive player this season, with the next closest checking in at 15.8 (Pedroia). It’s the second straight season that the swift lefty has paced the majors defensively, as Gardner checked in at 24.9 runs above average on his way to a 6.2 WAR mark in 2010. With limited power, there’s a very good chance that this is Gardner’s ceiling, but as a left fielder that can fill in capably in center (and has swiped bags at an 82.4% career rate), there’s little doubt the Yankees are thrilled with his development.
Just over one year ago, Yunel Escobar couldn’t get out of Atlanta fast enough. Media members couldn’t stand him, his effort and production were under fire, and his potential looked as though it had passed him by. Now in 2011, Escobar has taken very well to his new digs north of the border, as he’s triple-slashed .297/.378/.428 and has quietly turned himself into the player he was destined to become after his exciting 2007 debut with the Braves. Checking in at a WAR of 4.3, Escobar ranks as the finest shortstop in the American League and only trails stalwarts Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes league-wide. Since the deal, Escobar is hitting .289/.364/.402, while Alex Gonzalez checks in at .237/.273/.360. Thus, as a result it’s probably safe to say that Alex Anthopoulos got the better end of that deal, though that seems to be a recurring theme.
Much like teammate Chase Headley in 2010, Padres centerfielder Cameron Maybin has quietly put together a solid season in cavernous Petco Park. Headley only hit .264/.327/.375, but was propelled by his 16.5 defensive runs above replacement level to post a very comely 4.9 WAR. Similarly, Maybin, dealt from the Marlins for a pair of relievers in the offseason, has been propelled by his defensive numbers (5.8 runs above replacement) to be listed among the 35 most valuable players across the league. For a little context, Maybin has been more valuable than Brian McCann, Mike Stanton, Carlos Beltran, and Jay Bruce. If nothing else, that certainly proves the old adage that useful everyday players should not be traded for relief help, even if Edward Mujica had one of the finest (and strangest) relief lines in baseball last year. Are you listening, Bill Smith?
As I’m fully aware, it’s hard to fathom a scenario in which a Yankee could fly under the radar, but for a second straight season, outfielder Brett Gardner has done just that. Gardner’s triple-slash of .285/.366/.404 is plenty nice for a leadoff hitter in front of the second-highest scoring team in the American League, but it’s his defense that sets him apart. At 19.0 runs above average for left fielders, Gardner is far and away the best defensive player this season, with the next closest checking in at 15.8 (Pedroia). It’s the second straight season that the swift lefty has paced the majors defensively, as Gardner checked in at 24.9 runs above average on his way to a 6.2 WAR mark in 2010. With limited power, there’s a very good chance that this is Gardner’s ceiling, but as a left fielder that can fill in capably in center (and has swiped bags at an 82.4% career rate), there’s little doubt the Yankees are thrilled with his development.
Just over one year ago, Yunel Escobar couldn’t get out of Atlanta fast enough. Media members couldn’t stand him, his effort and production were under fire, and his potential looked as though it had passed him by. Now in 2011, Escobar has taken very well to his new digs north of the border, as he’s triple-slashed .297/.378/.428 and has quietly turned himself into the player he was destined to become after his exciting 2007 debut with the Braves. Checking in at a WAR of 4.3, Escobar ranks as the finest shortstop in the American League and only trails stalwarts Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes league-wide. Since the deal, Escobar is hitting .289/.364/.402, while Alex Gonzalez checks in at .237/.273/.360. Thus, as a result it’s probably safe to say that Alex Anthopoulos got the better end of that deal, though that seems to be a recurring theme.
Much like teammate Chase Headley in 2010, Padres centerfielder Cameron Maybin has quietly put together a solid season in cavernous Petco Park. Headley only hit .264/.327/.375, but was propelled by his 16.5 defensive runs above replacement level to post a very comely 4.9 WAR. Similarly, Maybin, dealt from the Marlins for a pair of relievers in the offseason, has been propelled by his defensive numbers (5.8 runs above replacement) to be listed among the 35 most valuable players across the league. For a little context, Maybin has been more valuable than Brian McCann, Mike Stanton, Carlos Beltran, and Jay Bruce. If nothing else, that certainly proves the old adage that useful everyday players should not be traded for relief help, even if Edward Mujica had one of the finest (and strangest) relief lines in baseball last year. Are you listening, Bill Smith?
Victorino and Ellsbury having the same season.
Spoiler [+]
Jacoby Ellsbury is having a terrific year, and has been one of the best all-around players in baseball this year. He’s been one of the main reasons the Red Sox have rebounded from a slow start, and is rightfully getting attention as a legitimate MVP candidate. He should absolutely be part of that discussion.
Over in the National League, though, Shane Victorino is performing at the same level and, at least by my perception, is getting roundly ignored. This should not be. Let’s put them side by side, shall we?
Ellsbury: .314/.369/.508, .387 wOBA, 142 wRC+, +11.2 UZR, +6.2 WAR
Victorino: .313/.390/.536, .406 wOBA, 157 wRC+, +6.5 UZR, +5.7 WAR
At the plate, Victorino’s been a bit better, posting the same average while drawing a few more walks and hitting for a little more power. UZR prefers Ellsbury as a defender this year, and he has a better reputation than Victorino, but both are valuable assets with the glove in center field. Both are also top-of-the-lineup hitters for teams that are performing extremely well and are essentially locks to make the playoffs. So, why the dramatic difference in recognition?
It basically comes down to counting stats. Victorino has had two separate stints on the 15-day DL this year, so he’s missed just a little less than a month of the season. Because of that, he only has 408 plate appearances, while Ellsbury has 541. The playing time gap gives Ellsbury an advantage in most of the counting stats – he has 41 more hits, 16 more stolen bases, 11 more runs scored, and eight more home runs. There’s also a drastic difference in RBIs, but hopefully voters would realize that there’s a huge disadvantage in hitting at the top of the line-up in the NL in that regard and not really use those to evaluate Victorino’s performance.
I don’t want to downplay the extra value that Ellsbury has been able to accrue since he’s stayed healthy. Certainly, he should get credit for playing the full season while Victorino loses points for the games he spent on the DL. However, value is a balance of quality and quantity, and Victorino’s performance has been a bit better when he’s been on the field. That’s why the gap in WAR isn’t so large, even though Ellsbury has played 26 more games than Victorino.
Since they’re in different leagues, they won’t actually be compared by voters this winter, but I do hope that the fact that Ellsbury is being touted as an MVP candidate (again, rightfully so) encourages NL voters to look at their league’s version of the same player. While he’s overshadowed by some ridiculously talented teammates, Victorino’s monster year is near the top of the list of reasons why the Phillies have run away with the NL East.
Center fielders who can hit, run, and field are remarkably valuable. I’m glad guys like Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson are getting the recognition they deserve in the American League. I just hope that National League voters realize that they have a very similar candidate on their side of things.
Over in the National League, though, Shane Victorino is performing at the same level and, at least by my perception, is getting roundly ignored. This should not be. Let’s put them side by side, shall we?
Ellsbury: .314/.369/.508, .387 wOBA, 142 wRC+, +11.2 UZR, +6.2 WAR
Victorino: .313/.390/.536, .406 wOBA, 157 wRC+, +6.5 UZR, +5.7 WAR
At the plate, Victorino’s been a bit better, posting the same average while drawing a few more walks and hitting for a little more power. UZR prefers Ellsbury as a defender this year, and he has a better reputation than Victorino, but both are valuable assets with the glove in center field. Both are also top-of-the-lineup hitters for teams that are performing extremely well and are essentially locks to make the playoffs. So, why the dramatic difference in recognition?
It basically comes down to counting stats. Victorino has had two separate stints on the 15-day DL this year, so he’s missed just a little less than a month of the season. Because of that, he only has 408 plate appearances, while Ellsbury has 541. The playing time gap gives Ellsbury an advantage in most of the counting stats – he has 41 more hits, 16 more stolen bases, 11 more runs scored, and eight more home runs. There’s also a drastic difference in RBIs, but hopefully voters would realize that there’s a huge disadvantage in hitting at the top of the line-up in the NL in that regard and not really use those to evaluate Victorino’s performance.
I don’t want to downplay the extra value that Ellsbury has been able to accrue since he’s stayed healthy. Certainly, he should get credit for playing the full season while Victorino loses points for the games he spent on the DL. However, value is a balance of quality and quantity, and Victorino’s performance has been a bit better when he’s been on the field. That’s why the gap in WAR isn’t so large, even though Ellsbury has played 26 more games than Victorino.
Since they’re in different leagues, they won’t actually be compared by voters this winter, but I do hope that the fact that Ellsbury is being touted as an MVP candidate (again, rightfully so) encourages NL voters to look at their league’s version of the same player. While he’s overshadowed by some ridiculously talented teammates, Victorino’s monster year is near the top of the list of reasons why the Phillies have run away with the NL East.
Center fielders who can hit, run, and field are remarkably valuable. I’m glad guys like Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson are getting the recognition they deserve in the American League. I just hope that National League voters realize that they have a very similar candidate on their side of things.
Next to 600 home runs?
Cubs, Pirates signing deadline winners.
A Giant turnaround will be difficult.
Under the radar players.
Victorino and Ellsbury having the same season.
Spoiler [+]
At long last, Jim Thome hit his 600th career home run and became the eighth player in major league history to reach that milestone. Given the increase in home runs in the past 20 years, the 400-homer club has become almost old news, and hitting 500 homers is no longer an automatic ticket to Cooperstown.
But 600 homers is still a pretty rare feat -- you can count the club members without running out of fingers -- and many of the best players of this generation are likely to fall well short.
Who else will pass the 600-homer mark? Because waiting years and decades to find out isn't much fun, I used the ZiPS system to project the final home run totals for every player who looked to be even remotely on a 600-dinger trajectory. (Players like Geoff Blum or Juan Pierre need not apply.)
In ZiPS' estimation, just 10 active players other than Thome have at least a 2 percent chance to retire with at least 600 homers on their résumés.
For offensive environment, I used a level between 2010 and 2011, and I used the current home park for each player. A return to a higher level of offense or a change of park could increase or decrease each player's odds, but we don't have that information yet. For each player, I list the chances of a 600-home run career and, in parentheses, his expected career total.
[h3]Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees[/h3]100 percent (764)
Given that A-Rod is already past 600 homers, we can be pretty sure that 100 percent is accurate.
The only question surrounding A-Rod is whether he can pass Barry Bonds. ZiPS has given him a 50-50 chance for a couple of years, and he's right on target so far.
[h3]Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]95 percent (704)
Pujols is having the worst season of his career, but he's nearly three-quarters of the way to 600 and is only 31 years old.
At this point, the only thing that can really stop Prince Albert from hitting 600 is a serious injury that ends his career or completely saps his power.
[h3]Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers[/h3]47 percent (58
Cabrera is easily the likeliest of the under-30 set to hit 600 homers. Although he has never had an insane season in terms of raw homer count, he was a full-timer at age 20 and became a superstar very quickly, enabling him to hit enough homers to put him past the halfway mark by his 30th birthday.
Cabrera is an amazing all-around hitter, but a lot can happen in a decade, so he's not a shoo-in yet.
[h3]Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins[/h3]24 percent (577)
It may seem odd for a player so far from 600 to have such a good shot so early, but Stanton already has displayed elite power at the major league level and is just 21 years old.
There's also nothing to indicate that his power so far is any kind of fluke -- Stanton is a big guy who was expected to be one of the best power hitters in baseball.
[h3]Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox[/h3]11 percent (503)
Nobody has seen his chances at 600 drop more than Dunn this year. Dunn was never a great candidate to age well, but I doubt anybody expected him to go instantly from a near-guaranteed 35-homer hitter (the last year he finished with fewer than 38 home runs was 2003) to a player struggling to outslug Omar Vizquel.
Generally, players will bounce back from poor seasons -- a phenomenon that Baseball Prospectus author Bill James coined the Plexiglas Principle -- but Dunn's decline has been so severe and so sudden that I wouldn't be shocked if he was out of baseball before his contract with Chicago ended.
The best chance for White Sox fans is to hope that Dunn secretly has been playing with two broken wrists all season.
[h3]Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]10 percent (523)
Fielder is a great home run hitter, but he's only a little more than one-third of the way there.
Much of his success in this area will come down to how well his body holds up, as a lot of his ZiPS comparisons are other hefty sluggers like Boog Powell who declined pretty steeply in their early-to-mid 30s.
[h3]Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees[/h3]4 percent (515)
Teixeira no longer hits for average, but he's likely to put up his second 40-homer season this season, and he's past the halfway mark to 600.
Playing in the new Yankee Stadium helps, but he's a little behind the pace and will have to keep hitting homers at nearly his current pace into his early 40s.
[h3]Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]4 percent (420)
Like Stanton, Upton's odds are helped by the fact that he started very young, but he hasn't yet developed the power necessary to make a run at 600.
That still can happen, which is why he makes this list, but a player really needs to have a baseline expectation of 30 homers a year to accomplish the feat. Upton's not quite there yet.
[h3]Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]3 percent (48
Howard is past 30 years old and nearly a year from hitting No. 300, so his odds are long.
After two nonsuperstar seasons, Howard already appears to be in decline, and not being a regular until age 25 really hurt his chances. Still, Howard has enough raw power that he at least has a chance if he gets a second wind.
[h3]Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds[/h3]2 percent (38
Bruce has essentially the same scenario as Upton, and his shot at 600 relies on his developing even more power and avoiding injury or early decline.
Like Dunn, Vladimir Guerrero's (0 percent, 494) odds of 600 have quickly evaporated this season. Although Vlad hasn't had anywhere near as bad a year as Dunn, Vlad is also 36 and had less of a margin for error.
Paul Konerko (0 percent, 496) has had a late-career renaissance, but he'd have to hit 200 homers after age 35, and only Bonds and Hank Aaron have pulled that off. David Ortiz (0 percent, 467) is off Konerko's pace and will fall short as well.
Jose Bautista may be the scariest hitter in baseball today, but thanks to his very late development (59 homers through age 2, he'd have to average 40 homers a year through age 41, which is a very tall order. Bautista will need about 440 more homers after this season, and Bonds is the only player to hit that many after age 30.
But 600 homers is still a pretty rare feat -- you can count the club members without running out of fingers -- and many of the best players of this generation are likely to fall well short.
Who else will pass the 600-homer mark? Because waiting years and decades to find out isn't much fun, I used the ZiPS system to project the final home run totals for every player who looked to be even remotely on a 600-dinger trajectory. (Players like Geoff Blum or Juan Pierre need not apply.)
In ZiPS' estimation, just 10 active players other than Thome have at least a 2 percent chance to retire with at least 600 homers on their résumés.
For offensive environment, I used a level between 2010 and 2011, and I used the current home park for each player. A return to a higher level of offense or a change of park could increase or decrease each player's odds, but we don't have that information yet. For each player, I list the chances of a 600-home run career and, in parentheses, his expected career total.
[h3]Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees[/h3]100 percent (764)
Given that A-Rod is already past 600 homers, we can be pretty sure that 100 percent is accurate.
The only question surrounding A-Rod is whether he can pass Barry Bonds. ZiPS has given him a 50-50 chance for a couple of years, and he's right on target so far.
[h3]Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]95 percent (704)
Pujols is having the worst season of his career, but he's nearly three-quarters of the way to 600 and is only 31 years old.
At this point, the only thing that can really stop Prince Albert from hitting 600 is a serious injury that ends his career or completely saps his power.
[h3]Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers[/h3]47 percent (58
Cabrera is easily the likeliest of the under-30 set to hit 600 homers. Although he has never had an insane season in terms of raw homer count, he was a full-timer at age 20 and became a superstar very quickly, enabling him to hit enough homers to put him past the halfway mark by his 30th birthday.
Cabrera is an amazing all-around hitter, but a lot can happen in a decade, so he's not a shoo-in yet.
[h3]Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins[/h3]24 percent (577)
It may seem odd for a player so far from 600 to have such a good shot so early, but Stanton already has displayed elite power at the major league level and is just 21 years old.
There's also nothing to indicate that his power so far is any kind of fluke -- Stanton is a big guy who was expected to be one of the best power hitters in baseball.
[h3]Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox[/h3]11 percent (503)
Nobody has seen his chances at 600 drop more than Dunn this year. Dunn was never a great candidate to age well, but I doubt anybody expected him to go instantly from a near-guaranteed 35-homer hitter (the last year he finished with fewer than 38 home runs was 2003) to a player struggling to outslug Omar Vizquel.
Generally, players will bounce back from poor seasons -- a phenomenon that Baseball Prospectus author Bill James coined the Plexiglas Principle -- but Dunn's decline has been so severe and so sudden that I wouldn't be shocked if he was out of baseball before his contract with Chicago ended.
The best chance for White Sox fans is to hope that Dunn secretly has been playing with two broken wrists all season.
[h3]Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]10 percent (523)
Fielder is a great home run hitter, but he's only a little more than one-third of the way there.
Much of his success in this area will come down to how well his body holds up, as a lot of his ZiPS comparisons are other hefty sluggers like Boog Powell who declined pretty steeply in their early-to-mid 30s.
[h3]Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees[/h3]4 percent (515)
Teixeira no longer hits for average, but he's likely to put up his second 40-homer season this season, and he's past the halfway mark to 600.
Playing in the new Yankee Stadium helps, but he's a little behind the pace and will have to keep hitting homers at nearly his current pace into his early 40s.
[h3]Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]4 percent (420)
Like Stanton, Upton's odds are helped by the fact that he started very young, but he hasn't yet developed the power necessary to make a run at 600.
That still can happen, which is why he makes this list, but a player really needs to have a baseline expectation of 30 homers a year to accomplish the feat. Upton's not quite there yet.
[h3]Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]3 percent (48
Howard is past 30 years old and nearly a year from hitting No. 300, so his odds are long.
After two nonsuperstar seasons, Howard already appears to be in decline, and not being a regular until age 25 really hurt his chances. Still, Howard has enough raw power that he at least has a chance if he gets a second wind.
[h3]Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds[/h3]2 percent (38
Bruce has essentially the same scenario as Upton, and his shot at 600 relies on his developing even more power and avoiding injury or early decline.
Like Dunn, Vladimir Guerrero's (0 percent, 494) odds of 600 have quickly evaporated this season. Although Vlad hasn't had anywhere near as bad a year as Dunn, Vlad is also 36 and had less of a margin for error.
Paul Konerko (0 percent, 496) has had a late-career renaissance, but he'd have to hit 200 homers after age 35, and only Bonds and Hank Aaron have pulled that off. David Ortiz (0 percent, 467) is off Konerko's pace and will fall short as well.
Jose Bautista may be the scariest hitter in baseball today, but thanks to his very late development (59 homers through age 2
, he'd have to average 40 homers a year through age 41, which is a very tall order. Bautista will need about 440 more homers after this season, and Bonds is the only player to hit that many after age 30.Cubs, Pirates signing deadline winners.
Spoiler [+]
I don't know whether anything is really surprising at MLB's signing deadline anymore, given the strategies by so many clubs to ramp up spending on amateur talent (which remains a tremendous value for MLB clubs). If anything, it's surprising that any player turns down the potentially life-changing money offered by big league clubs every summer. Because of that, I wrote before the signing deadline that if you predicted that each first-round pick would end up signing, you'd be correct on at least 93 percent of them, meaning that I thought at least 31 of the 33 would sign. As it turns out, all but one did, and the one who didn't, Toronto selection Tyler Beede, garnered as much attention as any other unsigned first-round pick leading into the deadline.
Becky CrabtreeSuspense wasn't justified, as all but one first-rounder signed. Even Bubba Starling.
It seems that Beede believed that other clubs would have offered him $3 million had Toronto not taken him, which may or may not be the case. That said, even though Vanderbilt is one of the top programs in college baseball and has a great track record of developing pitching, I don't think Beede is likely to get much more than that in three years. He's polished for his age but doesn't have the huge projection that might push his fastball to the mid-90s and slide him up to the top 2-3 spots in the draft, which is where he'd have to go to justify the decision on financial grounds.
As for Toronto, it switched to its backup plans (as predicted) in right-hander Kevin Comer and left-hander Daniel Norris, landing two other top-50 talents while still getting an extra (but unprotected) pick back in next year's draft. Toronto also landed Texas prep third baseman Matt Dean, who looked like a probable first-rounder coming out of his junior year but struggled in the 12 months leading up to the draft; for a 15th-round pick and a six-figure bonus, that's a strong gamble. The Blue Jays spent money throughout the summer to bring upside into the system, boosting what was already among the majors' top three farm systems.
Some other teams with notable deadline days:
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]
The Cubs took a bunch of tough-sign players who slipped not just on bonus demands but also because of baseball concerns, from Dillon Maples' arm action to Shawon Dunston Jr.'s disappointing performance this past spring to Daniel Vogelbach's DH-ness to Trevor Gretzky's general rawness in all areas of the game. They spent the money to at least get those players in the bank, topping them off with first-round pick Javier Baez, who immediately becomes the system's best long-term prospect. Scouting director Tim Wilken has always marched to his own beat, but you won't find many scouts willing to bet against him, and he did go for major upside on those picks as well as earlier signing Zeke DeVoss. The club has had a horrible year on the field, magnified by the Carlos Zambrano fiasco but really just caused by a terrible roster and front-office delusions of grandeur, so this draft class has to be a bright spot for eternally suffering Cubs fans.
[h3]Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
The Pirates were one of seven teams to land two of the top 20 players on my final pre-draft ranking -- the others are Washington, Arizona, Milwaukee, Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland -- but their path to that point was the most surprising of the group, as they signed Josh Bell to a $5 million deal, one of the richest bonuses ever handed out to a high school position player. Bell had sent a letter to all 30 clubs before the draft saying he didn't intend to sign -- although those letters are, as this demonstrates, worth about as much as the paper they're written on. As recently as two weeks ago he told a member of the University of Texas coaching staff that he was coming to school; he was arguably the most unsignable player among those who would have gone in the first round in a straight draft regardless of bonus demands. Pittsburgh's gamble with a fairly high pick (first of the second round), along with its willingness to stretch its draft budget, paid off at the deadline, as the Pirates landed him and top overall pick Gerrit Cole for a combined $13 million. Cole projects comfortably as a No. 1 starter with a huge fastball and out-pitch changeup, while Bell, a center fielder in college, has a gorgeous left-handed swing but has to move to left field and will need to work on his swing from the right side. I do know of scouts who thought Bell was the best pure bat in the draft, and of course Cole was one of several candidates for the best overall arm. Needless to say, this could end up a landmark draft class for the Pirates.
[h3]Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nats ran the table, landing all three of their first/sandwich-round picks (all, coincidentally, advised by Scott Boras) for premium dollars, including a surprising $3 million for Brian Goodwin. Goodwin was effectively a college sophomore, a junior college player who was set to transfer to South Carolina for the fall to re-enter next year's weak draft as one of the top two or three college position players in the class. Anthony Rendon may end up at second base because of the presence of Ryan Zimmerman, but once Rendon's shoulder is healthy, his bat and eye should let him advance quickly through the minors. Alex Meyer should at least begin his pro career as a starter after getting the $2 million he turned down in 2008 from Boston, but he needs to show better command and control to remain there despite a high-maintenance delivery. Still, it's a tremendous top three for the Nats.
... and then there's the Matt Purke deal. Although not as good as what he turned down from Texas out of high school, Purke got paid well over and above anything justified by his performance and health this past spring. I saw Purke twice but never saw him throw a pitch faster than 91 mph, and his velocity dropped in each of the two outings. He missed time with soreness in his shoulder.
Speaking of TCU, when is the camera eye going to turn on coach Jim Schlossnagle, who saw both his Friday and Saturday starters get hurt this season? He sent Kyle Winkler out to pitch the weekend before the draft, knowing that Winkler already had a stress reaction in the elbow, simply because he valued the potential win for his school over the individual player's career. What ultimately became a stress fracture may have cost Winkler a half-million dollars or more, and it is moves like that that make me glad to see that so many high school pitchers chose pro ball over college this year.
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]
The Padres also had a quartet of tough signs, with first pick Cory Spangenberg already in the bank. They managed to sign three of them, led by right-hander Joe Ross at $2.75 million. Ross was the backup plan for Cleveland with the eighth overall pick and ended up getting almost as much as the actual eighth pick, shortstop Francisco Lindor. He's an athletic, high-upside arm whose delivery, fortunately, looks nothing like that of his older brother Tyson. San Diego also took advantage of catcher Austin Hedges' desire to stay in Southern California, landing one of the best defensive catchers anyone can remember seeing at the high school or collegiate levels. They also added South Florida right-hander Michael Kelly, a projectable arm who'll touch 94 now and has a sharp curveball he doesn't command yet. The one who got away was Charlotte high school catcher Brett Austin, a recent convert to the position who heads to NC State instead. But the group the Padres signed gave them one of the better draft classes and injects some much-needed upside into the system after years of college-heavy drafts under previous GM Kevin Towers.
[h3]Final thought (for now)[/h3]
Remember when Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley wanted $30 million and $20 million, respectively? That didn't quite work out, and I'm surprised by how little both players got relative to their talent levels. Both came in under Jameson Taillon's deal from 2010 ($6.5 million), which was itself under Rick Porcello's major league deal, worth a guaranteed $7.285 million over four years, but in reality worth at least $8.76 million over six years unless he was released before 2011. Bundy earned plaudits as perhaps the most major league-ready high school pitcher in memory and probably would have gone first or second overall if not for the industry bias against shorter right-handed pitchers; for him to come in below Taillon is a feather in Baltimore's cap. Bradley, who received $5 million over five years, got less than fellow QB/RHP Zach Lee, who didn't have Bradley's velocity or sheer size, received last year. The Orioles and the Diamondbacks should be ecstatic to add potential No. 1 starters to their systems and to do so at a reasonable cost.
Becky CrabtreeSuspense wasn't justified, as all but one first-rounder signed. Even Bubba Starling.
It seems that Beede believed that other clubs would have offered him $3 million had Toronto not taken him, which may or may not be the case. That said, even though Vanderbilt is one of the top programs in college baseball and has a great track record of developing pitching, I don't think Beede is likely to get much more than that in three years. He's polished for his age but doesn't have the huge projection that might push his fastball to the mid-90s and slide him up to the top 2-3 spots in the draft, which is where he'd have to go to justify the decision on financial grounds.
As for Toronto, it switched to its backup plans (as predicted) in right-hander Kevin Comer and left-hander Daniel Norris, landing two other top-50 talents while still getting an extra (but unprotected) pick back in next year's draft. Toronto also landed Texas prep third baseman Matt Dean, who looked like a probable first-rounder coming out of his junior year but struggled in the 12 months leading up to the draft; for a 15th-round pick and a six-figure bonus, that's a strong gamble. The Blue Jays spent money throughout the summer to bring upside into the system, boosting what was already among the majors' top three farm systems.
Some other teams with notable deadline days:
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]
The Cubs took a bunch of tough-sign players who slipped not just on bonus demands but also because of baseball concerns, from Dillon Maples' arm action to Shawon Dunston Jr.'s disappointing performance this past spring to Daniel Vogelbach's DH-ness to Trevor Gretzky's general rawness in all areas of the game. They spent the money to at least get those players in the bank, topping them off with first-round pick Javier Baez, who immediately becomes the system's best long-term prospect. Scouting director Tim Wilken has always marched to his own beat, but you won't find many scouts willing to bet against him, and he did go for major upside on those picks as well as earlier signing Zeke DeVoss. The club has had a horrible year on the field, magnified by the Carlos Zambrano fiasco but really just caused by a terrible roster and front-office delusions of grandeur, so this draft class has to be a bright spot for eternally suffering Cubs fans.
[h3]Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
The Pirates were one of seven teams to land two of the top 20 players on my final pre-draft ranking -- the others are Washington, Arizona, Milwaukee, Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland -- but their path to that point was the most surprising of the group, as they signed Josh Bell to a $5 million deal, one of the richest bonuses ever handed out to a high school position player. Bell had sent a letter to all 30 clubs before the draft saying he didn't intend to sign -- although those letters are, as this demonstrates, worth about as much as the paper they're written on. As recently as two weeks ago he told a member of the University of Texas coaching staff that he was coming to school; he was arguably the most unsignable player among those who would have gone in the first round in a straight draft regardless of bonus demands. Pittsburgh's gamble with a fairly high pick (first of the second round), along with its willingness to stretch its draft budget, paid off at the deadline, as the Pirates landed him and top overall pick Gerrit Cole for a combined $13 million. Cole projects comfortably as a No. 1 starter with a huge fastball and out-pitch changeup, while Bell, a center fielder in college, has a gorgeous left-handed swing but has to move to left field and will need to work on his swing from the right side. I do know of scouts who thought Bell was the best pure bat in the draft, and of course Cole was one of several candidates for the best overall arm. Needless to say, this could end up a landmark draft class for the Pirates.
[h3]Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nats ran the table, landing all three of their first/sandwich-round picks (all, coincidentally, advised by Scott Boras) for premium dollars, including a surprising $3 million for Brian Goodwin. Goodwin was effectively a college sophomore, a junior college player who was set to transfer to South Carolina for the fall to re-enter next year's weak draft as one of the top two or three college position players in the class. Anthony Rendon may end up at second base because of the presence of Ryan Zimmerman, but once Rendon's shoulder is healthy, his bat and eye should let him advance quickly through the minors. Alex Meyer should at least begin his pro career as a starter after getting the $2 million he turned down in 2008 from Boston, but he needs to show better command and control to remain there despite a high-maintenance delivery. Still, it's a tremendous top three for the Nats.
... and then there's the Matt Purke deal. Although not as good as what he turned down from Texas out of high school, Purke got paid well over and above anything justified by his performance and health this past spring. I saw Purke twice but never saw him throw a pitch faster than 91 mph, and his velocity dropped in each of the two outings. He missed time with soreness in his shoulder.
Speaking of TCU, when is the camera eye going to turn on coach Jim Schlossnagle, who saw both his Friday and Saturday starters get hurt this season? He sent Kyle Winkler out to pitch the weekend before the draft, knowing that Winkler already had a stress reaction in the elbow, simply because he valued the potential win for his school over the individual player's career. What ultimately became a stress fracture may have cost Winkler a half-million dollars or more, and it is moves like that that make me glad to see that so many high school pitchers chose pro ball over college this year.
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]
The Padres also had a quartet of tough signs, with first pick Cory Spangenberg already in the bank. They managed to sign three of them, led by right-hander Joe Ross at $2.75 million. Ross was the backup plan for Cleveland with the eighth overall pick and ended up getting almost as much as the actual eighth pick, shortstop Francisco Lindor. He's an athletic, high-upside arm whose delivery, fortunately, looks nothing like that of his older brother Tyson. San Diego also took advantage of catcher Austin Hedges' desire to stay in Southern California, landing one of the best defensive catchers anyone can remember seeing at the high school or collegiate levels. They also added South Florida right-hander Michael Kelly, a projectable arm who'll touch 94 now and has a sharp curveball he doesn't command yet. The one who got away was Charlotte high school catcher Brett Austin, a recent convert to the position who heads to NC State instead. But the group the Padres signed gave them one of the better draft classes and injects some much-needed upside into the system after years of college-heavy drafts under previous GM Kevin Towers.
[h3]Final thought (for now)[/h3]
Remember when Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley wanted $30 million and $20 million, respectively? That didn't quite work out, and I'm surprised by how little both players got relative to their talent levels. Both came in under Jameson Taillon's deal from 2010 ($6.5 million), which was itself under Rick Porcello's major league deal, worth a guaranteed $7.285 million over four years, but in reality worth at least $8.76 million over six years unless he was released before 2011. Bundy earned plaudits as perhaps the most major league-ready high school pitcher in memory and probably would have gone first or second overall if not for the industry bias against shorter right-handed pitchers; for him to come in below Taillon is a feather in Baltimore's cap. Bradley, who received $5 million over five years, got less than fellow QB/RHP Zach Lee, who didn't have Bradley's velocity or sheer size, received last year. The Orioles and the Diamondbacks should be ecstatic to add potential No. 1 starters to their systems and to do so at a reasonable cost.
A Giant turnaround will be difficult.
Spoiler [+]
Bruce Bochy is in his 17th season as a manager and has a sense of history, which he will need to draw on today. A year ago to the day, the Giants were in serious trouble. They had lost eight of their previous 10 games, Tim Lincecum couldn't get anybody out, and they were 3½ games out of first place -- and in fact, the deficit by which they trailed San Diego would reach 6½ games on Aug. 25. So San Francisco knows something about taking punches, and then climbing off the mat.
AP Photo/David ZalubowskiGiants manager Bruce Bochy is facing a challenging stretch run as the Giants look to win the NL West.
They'll have to do it again, if they are to play any October baseball. Carlos Beltran and Sergio Romo may well be added to the disabled list today, Pablo Sandoval had to come out of Monday's game in the first inning after fouling a ball off his foot, and in the ninth inning, San Francisco took a body blow -- blowing a two-run lead in a 5-4 loss to the Braves. It was a crushing loss, as Andrew Baggarly writes.
I watched a lot of this game and closer Brian Wilson -- who has had back issues -- never seemed comfortable at all, stretching his back between pitches. He struggled like crazy to throw strikes to his arm side -- inside to right-handed hitters, away to left-handed hitters -- which became a serious problem as the long inning wore on, because the left-handed hitting Freddie Freeman had a pretty good idea about what pitch Wilson was going to throw, and where he would have to throw it. San Francisco is now 2½ games behind in the NL West; they will be without Sandoval for at least a couple of days, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if Wilson wasn't available for the next day or two.
The Diamondbacks are about to embark on a tough road trip, but don't confuse Arizona with the 2010 Padres; San Diego was an offensively challenged team that achieved far beyond anyone's expectations, and in September, Mat Latos slumped and the Padres' offense dried up. The Diamondbacks won't slump in the same manner; they have a deeper lineup, ranking third in the National League in runs scored, and they will probably get some pitching help in September from the likes of Trevor Bauer. Chris Young has worked through his past offensive struggles, as Nick Piecoro writes.
There is one significant difference between the Giants of last season and this year's version: They still have no idea from where their offense will come, with Beltran and Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez out of the lineup. San Francisco ranks 29th among 30 teams in runs scored, and there are no signs of a breakout, no indication that any of the guys who earned rings last year are suddenly going to surge.
And you can bet the folks with Major League Baseball are rooting like crazy for the defending champion to at least stay in contention, because the meaningful playoff races are evaporating -- the Brewers won Monday with some spectacular defense, and the Cardinals lost, pushing Milwaukee's lead to six games, and the Rangers beat the Angels to drive their lead in the AL West to five games. Besides the benign battle between the Red Sox and Yankees over playoff seeding, only the AL Central and NL West races feature second-place teams within five games of first place.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• After the stories we had on Twins DH Jim Thome last week, a number of fans emailed in their experiences of meeting the slugger in the past, all about the same: He could not have been more gracious. Which is why everybody seems thrilled for Thome, after he clubbed his 600th homer with a couple of shots on Monday night; Tigers starter Justin Verlander took time to salute Thome on Twitter after the game.
Maybe the most touching moment of the night came after the game, when Thome was interviewed on the field with Chuck Thome, his father, and Chuck was asked about his feelings -- and as he struggled with his emotions, he gently encouraged the interviewer to ask his son the questions; Chuck Thome was overcome.
Jim Thome thought of his deceased mother, as La Velle Neal writes. Thome had wondered if he would reach 600, as Brian Murphy writes.
A mutual friend says Thome has thought about retiring after hitting No. 600, to be at home with his kids. We'll see.
From Stats & Information: It was his the 48th multi-HR game of his career and the seventh in which two went to the opposite field. The fact he went the other way is appropriate since he has been the game's best at that skill over the past three seasons. He has hit 29 home runs to left field in that span and leads the majors in batting average (.465) and slugging percentage (1.10 to the opposite field.
When Babe Ruth became the first member of the 600-HR club, it took 13,911 days for a second member to join him, and that was Willie Mays. Just 15,174 days later, Thome makes it eight:
[h4]600 Home Run Club[/h4]
Days between new members joining
[th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Date of membership[/th][th=""]Days since last member joined[/th]
It was one year and 11 days ago that Alex Rodriguez became the seventh member of the 600-homer club, as he hit his 600th on Aug. 4 last season. Thome becomes the fourth member of the club to hit his 600th in the month of August.
AP Photo/David ZalubowskiGiants manager Bruce Bochy is facing a challenging stretch run as the Giants look to win the NL West.
They'll have to do it again, if they are to play any October baseball. Carlos Beltran and Sergio Romo may well be added to the disabled list today, Pablo Sandoval had to come out of Monday's game in the first inning after fouling a ball off his foot, and in the ninth inning, San Francisco took a body blow -- blowing a two-run lead in a 5-4 loss to the Braves. It was a crushing loss, as Andrew Baggarly writes.
I watched a lot of this game and closer Brian Wilson -- who has had back issues -- never seemed comfortable at all, stretching his back between pitches. He struggled like crazy to throw strikes to his arm side -- inside to right-handed hitters, away to left-handed hitters -- which became a serious problem as the long inning wore on, because the left-handed hitting Freddie Freeman had a pretty good idea about what pitch Wilson was going to throw, and where he would have to throw it. San Francisco is now 2½ games behind in the NL West; they will be without Sandoval for at least a couple of days, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if Wilson wasn't available for the next day or two.
The Diamondbacks are about to embark on a tough road trip, but don't confuse Arizona with the 2010 Padres; San Diego was an offensively challenged team that achieved far beyond anyone's expectations, and in September, Mat Latos slumped and the Padres' offense dried up. The Diamondbacks won't slump in the same manner; they have a deeper lineup, ranking third in the National League in runs scored, and they will probably get some pitching help in September from the likes of Trevor Bauer. Chris Young has worked through his past offensive struggles, as Nick Piecoro writes.
There is one significant difference between the Giants of last season and this year's version: They still have no idea from where their offense will come, with Beltran and Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez out of the lineup. San Francisco ranks 29th among 30 teams in runs scored, and there are no signs of a breakout, no indication that any of the guys who earned rings last year are suddenly going to surge.
And you can bet the folks with Major League Baseball are rooting like crazy for the defending champion to at least stay in contention, because the meaningful playoff races are evaporating -- the Brewers won Monday with some spectacular defense, and the Cardinals lost, pushing Milwaukee's lead to six games, and the Rangers beat the Angels to drive their lead in the AL West to five games. Besides the benign battle between the Red Sox and Yankees over playoff seeding, only the AL Central and NL West races feature second-place teams within five games of first place.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• After the stories we had on Twins DH Jim Thome last week, a number of fans emailed in their experiences of meeting the slugger in the past, all about the same: He could not have been more gracious. Which is why everybody seems thrilled for Thome, after he clubbed his 600th homer with a couple of shots on Monday night; Tigers starter Justin Verlander took time to salute Thome on Twitter after the game.
Maybe the most touching moment of the night came after the game, when Thome was interviewed on the field with Chuck Thome, his father, and Chuck was asked about his feelings -- and as he struggled with his emotions, he gently encouraged the interviewer to ask his son the questions; Chuck Thome was overcome.
Jim Thome thought of his deceased mother, as La Velle Neal writes. Thome had wondered if he would reach 600, as Brian Murphy writes.
A mutual friend says Thome has thought about retiring after hitting No. 600, to be at home with his kids. We'll see.
From Stats & Information: It was his the 48th multi-HR game of his career and the seventh in which two went to the opposite field. The fact he went the other way is appropriate since he has been the game's best at that skill over the past three seasons. He has hit 29 home runs to left field in that span and leads the majors in batting average (.465) and slugging percentage (1.10
to the opposite field.When Babe Ruth became the first member of the 600-HR club, it took 13,911 days for a second member to join him, and that was Willie Mays. Just 15,174 days later, Thome makes it eight:
[h4]600 Home Run Club[/h4]
Days between new members joining
| Babe Ruth | August 21, 1931 | -- |
| Willie Mays | Sept. 22, 1969 | 13,911 |
| Hank Aaron | April 27, 1971 | 581 |
| Barry Bonds | August 9, 2002 | 11,304 |
| Sammy Sosa | June 20, 2007 | 1,775 |
| Ken Griffey | June 9, 2008 | 354 |
| Alex Rodriguez | August 4, 2010 | 785 |
| Jim Thome | August 15, 2011 | 375 |
It was one year and 11 days ago that Alex Rodriguez became the seventh member of the 600-homer club, as he hit his 600th on Aug. 4 last season. Thome becomes the fourth member of the club to hit his 600th in the month of August.
Under the radar players.
Spoiler [+]
As the season rounds the corner and heads for the home stretch, it’s pretty easy to separate the haves from the have-nots. Whether discussing players like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Bautista leading the charge on the WAR leaderboards, or Adam Dunn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka facing the opposite direction, it’s certainly not difficult to skim the top or bottom of the lists. With today’s entry however, we’ll focus on a few players who have flown under the radar, perhaps outperforming expectations or simply shining despite relative obscurity.
As I’m fully aware, it’s hard to fathom a scenario in which a Yankee could fly under the radar, but for a second straight season, outfielder Brett Gardner has done just that. Gardner’s triple-slash of .285/.366/.404 is plenty nice for a leadoff hitter in front of the second-highest scoring team in the American League, but it’s his defense that sets him apart. At 19.0 runs above average for left fielders, Gardner is far and away the best defensive player this season, with the next closest checking in at 15.8 (Pedroia). It’s the second straight season that the swift lefty has paced the majors defensively, as Gardner checked in at 24.9 runs above average on his way to a 6.2 WAR mark in 2010. With limited power, there’s a very good chance that this is Gardner’s ceiling, but as a left fielder that can fill in capably in center (and has swiped bags at an 82.4% career rate), there’s little doubt the Yankees are thrilled with his development.
Just over one year ago, Yunel Escobar couldn’t get out of Atlanta fast enough. Media members couldn’t stand him, his effort and production were under fire, and his potential looked as though it had passed him by. Now in 2011, Escobar has taken very well to his new digs north of the border, as he’s triple-slashed .297/.378/.428 and has quietly turned himself into the player he was destined to become after his exciting 2007 debut with the Braves. Checking in at a WAR of 4.3, Escobar ranks as the finest shortstop in the American League and only trails stalwarts Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes league-wide. Since the deal, Escobar is hitting .289/.364/.402, while Alex Gonzalez checks in at .237/.273/.360. Thus, as a result it’s probably safe to say that Alex Anthopoulos got the better end of that deal, though that seems to be a recurring theme.
Much like teammate Chase Headley in 2010, Padres centerfielder Cameron Maybin has quietly put together a solid season in cavernous Petco Park. Headley only hit .264/.327/.375, but was propelled by his 16.5 defensive runs above replacement level to post a very comely 4.9 WAR. Similarly, Maybin, dealt from the Marlins for a pair of relievers in the offseason, has been propelled by his defensive numbers (5.8 runs above replacement) to be listed among the 35 most valuable players across the league. For a little context, Maybin has been more valuable than Brian McCann, Mike Stanton, Carlos Beltran, and Jay Bruce. If nothing else, that certainly proves the old adage that useful everyday players should not be traded for relief help, even if Edward Mujica had one of the finest (and strangest) relief lines in baseball last year. Are you listening, Bill Smith?
As I’m fully aware, it’s hard to fathom a scenario in which a Yankee could fly under the radar, but for a second straight season, outfielder Brett Gardner has done just that. Gardner’s triple-slash of .285/.366/.404 is plenty nice for a leadoff hitter in front of the second-highest scoring team in the American League, but it’s his defense that sets him apart. At 19.0 runs above average for left fielders, Gardner is far and away the best defensive player this season, with the next closest checking in at 15.8 (Pedroia). It’s the second straight season that the swift lefty has paced the majors defensively, as Gardner checked in at 24.9 runs above average on his way to a 6.2 WAR mark in 2010. With limited power, there’s a very good chance that this is Gardner’s ceiling, but as a left fielder that can fill in capably in center (and has swiped bags at an 82.4% career rate), there’s little doubt the Yankees are thrilled with his development.
Just over one year ago, Yunel Escobar couldn’t get out of Atlanta fast enough. Media members couldn’t stand him, his effort and production were under fire, and his potential looked as though it had passed him by. Now in 2011, Escobar has taken very well to his new digs north of the border, as he’s triple-slashed .297/.378/.428 and has quietly turned himself into the player he was destined to become after his exciting 2007 debut with the Braves. Checking in at a WAR of 4.3, Escobar ranks as the finest shortstop in the American League and only trails stalwarts Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes league-wide. Since the deal, Escobar is hitting .289/.364/.402, while Alex Gonzalez checks in at .237/.273/.360. Thus, as a result it’s probably safe to say that Alex Anthopoulos got the better end of that deal, though that seems to be a recurring theme.
Much like teammate Chase Headley in 2010, Padres centerfielder Cameron Maybin has quietly put together a solid season in cavernous Petco Park. Headley only hit .264/.327/.375, but was propelled by his 16.5 defensive runs above replacement level to post a very comely 4.9 WAR. Similarly, Maybin, dealt from the Marlins for a pair of relievers in the offseason, has been propelled by his defensive numbers (5.8 runs above replacement) to be listed among the 35 most valuable players across the league. For a little context, Maybin has been more valuable than Brian McCann, Mike Stanton, Carlos Beltran, and Jay Bruce. If nothing else, that certainly proves the old adage that useful everyday players should not be traded for relief help, even if Edward Mujica had one of the finest (and strangest) relief lines in baseball last year. Are you listening, Bill Smith?
Victorino and Ellsbury having the same season.
Spoiler [+]
Jacoby Ellsbury is having a terrific year, and has been one of the best all-around players in baseball this year. He’s been one of the main reasons the Red Sox have rebounded from a slow start, and is rightfully getting attention as a legitimate MVP candidate. He should absolutely be part of that discussion.
Over in the National League, though, Shane Victorino is performing at the same level and, at least by my perception, is getting roundly ignored. This should not be. Let’s put them side by side, shall we?
Ellsbury: .314/.369/.508, .387 wOBA, 142 wRC+, +11.2 UZR, +6.2 WAR
Victorino: .313/.390/.536, .406 wOBA, 157 wRC+, +6.5 UZR, +5.7 WAR
At the plate, Victorino’s been a bit better, posting the same average while drawing a few more walks and hitting for a little more power. UZR prefers Ellsbury as a defender this year, and he has a better reputation than Victorino, but both are valuable assets with the glove in center field. Both are also top-of-the-lineup hitters for teams that are performing extremely well and are essentially locks to make the playoffs. So, why the dramatic difference in recognition?
It basically comes down to counting stats. Victorino has had two separate stints on the 15-day DL this year, so he’s missed just a little less than a month of the season. Because of that, he only has 408 plate appearances, while Ellsbury has 541. The playing time gap gives Ellsbury an advantage in most of the counting stats – he has 41 more hits, 16 more stolen bases, 11 more runs scored, and eight more home runs. There’s also a drastic difference in RBIs, but hopefully voters would realize that there’s a huge disadvantage in hitting at the top of the line-up in the NL in that regard and not really use those to evaluate Victorino’s performance.
I don’t want to downplay the extra value that Ellsbury has been able to accrue since he’s stayed healthy. Certainly, he should get credit for playing the full season while Victorino loses points for the games he spent on the DL. However, value is a balance of quality and quantity, and Victorino’s performance has been a bit better when he’s been on the field. That’s why the gap in WAR isn’t so large, even though Ellsbury has played 26 more games than Victorino.
Since they’re in different leagues, they won’t actually be compared by voters this winter, but I do hope that the fact that Ellsbury is being touted as an MVP candidate (again, rightfully so) encourages NL voters to look at their league’s version of the same player. While he’s overshadowed by some ridiculously talented teammates, Victorino’s monster year is near the top of the list of reasons why the Phillies have run away with the NL East.
Center fielders who can hit, run, and field are remarkably valuable. I’m glad guys like Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson are getting the recognition they deserve in the American League. I just hope that National League voters realize that they have a very similar candidate on their side of things.
Over in the National League, though, Shane Victorino is performing at the same level and, at least by my perception, is getting roundly ignored. This should not be. Let’s put them side by side, shall we?
Ellsbury: .314/.369/.508, .387 wOBA, 142 wRC+, +11.2 UZR, +6.2 WAR
Victorino: .313/.390/.536, .406 wOBA, 157 wRC+, +6.5 UZR, +5.7 WAR
At the plate, Victorino’s been a bit better, posting the same average while drawing a few more walks and hitting for a little more power. UZR prefers Ellsbury as a defender this year, and he has a better reputation than Victorino, but both are valuable assets with the glove in center field. Both are also top-of-the-lineup hitters for teams that are performing extremely well and are essentially locks to make the playoffs. So, why the dramatic difference in recognition?
It basically comes down to counting stats. Victorino has had two separate stints on the 15-day DL this year, so he’s missed just a little less than a month of the season. Because of that, he only has 408 plate appearances, while Ellsbury has 541. The playing time gap gives Ellsbury an advantage in most of the counting stats – he has 41 more hits, 16 more stolen bases, 11 more runs scored, and eight more home runs. There’s also a drastic difference in RBIs, but hopefully voters would realize that there’s a huge disadvantage in hitting at the top of the line-up in the NL in that regard and not really use those to evaluate Victorino’s performance.
I don’t want to downplay the extra value that Ellsbury has been able to accrue since he’s stayed healthy. Certainly, he should get credit for playing the full season while Victorino loses points for the games he spent on the DL. However, value is a balance of quality and quantity, and Victorino’s performance has been a bit better when he’s been on the field. That’s why the gap in WAR isn’t so large, even though Ellsbury has played 26 more games than Victorino.
Since they’re in different leagues, they won’t actually be compared by voters this winter, but I do hope that the fact that Ellsbury is being touted as an MVP candidate (again, rightfully so) encourages NL voters to look at their league’s version of the same player. While he’s overshadowed by some ridiculously talented teammates, Victorino’s monster year is near the top of the list of reasons why the Phillies have run away with the NL East.
Center fielders who can hit, run, and field are remarkably valuable. I’m glad guys like Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson are getting the recognition they deserve in the American League. I just hope that National League voters realize that they have a very similar candidate on their side of things.
- 10,371
- 653
- 10,371
- 653
- 58,787
- 30,191
Karma. Has to be.
- 58,787
- 30,191
Karma. Has to be.
- 58,787
- 30,191
- 58,787
- 30,191
Breaking down the AL MVP race.
Should Arizona call up Bauer?
Phillies weakness?
Spoiler [+]
When it comes to the MVP award, I prefer to set aside my scouting hat and focus just on performance measurement -- and we have plenty of tools available to us to help guide us to the right answer to the question: "Who produced the most value for his team this year?" And the stat that best gets at this question, in my opinion, is Wins Above Replacement, better known as WAR. Here's a table of the top candidates for the American League MVP award showing their WAR totals to date using two methods, one from FanGraphs (fWAR) and one from Baseball-Reference (rWAR), both sites I typically keep open in browser tabs from the moment I turn on the computer in the morning until I shut it off at night.
[h4]MVP Candidates[/h4]
A look at top candidates based on Wins Above Replacement from FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (rWAR):
[th=""]Player[/th][th=""]fWAR[/th][th=""]rWAR[/th]
The various types of Wins Above Replacement calculations share a common goal: To measure each player's individual value as accurately as possible. For a position player, that means totaling up the value of everything he produced as a hitter (and the value he destroyed every time he made an out); plus the value he produced or destroyed on the bases; plus the value he produced or destroyed on defense. For a pitcher, it means adding up the value of the outs he generated and subtracting the value of the hits and walks he allowed; it may also mean adjusting the value of the balls he allowed into play to try to back out any help received from his defense. In all contexts, the statistics should be adjusted for ballpark, although they're not adjusted to reflect the unbalanced schedules big leaguers face.
The defensive numbers bundled into WAR are somewhat controversial, of course, in part because they're new, in part because they're opaque, and more than anything else because there are multiple stats purporting to measure the same thing but giving us different results. But I respect the statistics even with their limitations, because when we're trying to get a reasonable measurement of defensive value, these statistics are better than a scout's eyes in a small sample of games, which is in turn better than a divining rod, which is in turn better than fielding percentage, which is the worst thing to happen to baseball since Bowie Kuhn finished trying to run the game into the ground.
With all of that in mind, here's a rundown of the leading candidates, including some more qualitative arguments about their cases, starting with the obvious -- or should-be-obvious -- MVP to date.
[h3]Jose Bautista[/h3]
He's leading the AL in on-base percentage and in slugging percentage, with giant margins in both categories, while playing adequate defense across two positions. His OBP is somewhat boosted by intentional walks, but without them he'd still lead the league in OBP by 12 points. (Even without those intentional walks, his fWAR is still 7.0, tops in the AL). He's been far and away the most valuable player in the league, and the only reason I can see that he's not getting his due as such is that he plays for a non-contender.
Because, let's face it, that's the real problem with Bautista's candidacy: For the voters still clinging to an outdated notion of value, there's nothing he could do to earn the MVP award while he plays on a non-playoff team. But where can the argument be? You can't even make a win-probability argument against him -- that is, to say that his performance hasn't directly resulted in wins -- because he's leading the AL in win probability added (WPA), which factors in the timing (inning, score) of offensive performance and credits the hitter with the change in the team's probability of winning the game. And he's not leading by a little bit -- his net WPA of 6.50 is nearly 50 percent higher than the second-highest figure, 4.39 by Miguel Cabrera. I don't advocate the use of WPA to determine the MVP because it's still context-dependent, but if you care about context, it's a sound measure, and points to Bautista in a landslide.
[h3]Dustin Pedroia[/h3]
Pedroia's case here rests to a surprising degree on where he plays: he gets two boosts from playing a position up the middle and from playing it exceptionally well this year, a fairly extreme outlier compared to the rest of his career. Pedroia has made himself into an above-average defender, producing fairly consistent defensive ratings in each of his first four full seasons. This year, his UZR figure, representing runs saved above an average second baseman, is higher than the combined total for the previous two years and has him as the best defensive second baseman in the game (although the current crop of defenders at that position is pretty weak overall).
As a hitter, Pedroia ranks ninth in the American League in FanGraphs' Batting Runs, dead even with Ben Zobrist, and only moves up the rankings on the high fielding rating and the boost he gets for playing second base. (In fact, the difference between Pedroia and Zobrist this year is almost entirely fielding, with small adjustments in Pedroia's favor for playing time and because Zobrist has played 33 games in the outfield.) An argument for Pedroia over Bautista involves team record and a fervent belief that the large uptick in Pedroia's defensive numbers is accurate. I'm skeptical on the second part, but even if I take it at face value the first part holds no water with me.
[h3]Jacoby Ellsbury[/h3]
Ellsbury also plays a position up the middle and has had the good fortune to come up in enough critical situations that he's racked up the third-best WPA figure in the league in addition to earning some mainstream "clutch" points or positive qi or whatever sort of woo some use to decide whose team is good enough for its players to be considered for an MVP ballot. Ellsbury was one of the better defensive centerfield prospects I've seen, at least in terms of range, but his defensive scores as a big leaguer have been all over the place (more evidence in favor of the argument that a single season isn't a sufficient sample when attempting to judge a player's defensive ability).
But his defensive value isn't the big reason for the jump in his WAR totals -- he's started hitting for power like never before, generating more offensive value in four months this year than he had in over 300 games coming into this year and more than doubling his career home run total. He has shown the ability to drop the bat head and drive the ball out to right-center this year, so I'm not convinced it's a fluke, but the value created by the home runs is real either way. I am a lot more comfortable with his defensive ratings than I am with Pedroia's, though.
[h3]Justin Verlander[/h3]
I'm not sure what sort of voting calamity would have to occur for a pitcher to win an MVP award, but indulge me for the moment, since the rules for MVP voters do not in any way exclude pitchers, and any voter who omits them entirely is violating the spirit of those rules, if not their letter as well. And such a voter is also ignoring the value that a top-end starting pitcher can create, whether it's Roy Halladay this year in the National League or Verlander in the American.
The FanGraphs version of WAR relies on FIP, a very simple ERA estimator that is probably too simple -- a back-of-the-envelope calculation where a more rigorous one would do the job better -- and might slightly overrate Verlander, who fares a little worse in any of the other three major ERA estimators (SIERA, tERA, and xFIP) I know of. (An ERA estimator looks at the individual results allowed by a pitcher over which he has significant control, including strikeouts, walks, home runs, and groundball or line drive rates, and uses them to construct a more "neutral" ERA-like statistic that should give us a more accurate picture of how much the pitcher contributed to his team. They assume many things, including that all pitchers suffer roughly the same loss of effectiveness when pitching from the stretch.) Baseball-Reference's version of WAR is based strictly on a pitcher's ERA, so the boost Verlander gets from his ballpark is still present there, and the fact that he's been "lucky" on balls in play -- one might say he's been helped by his defense, assuming one hasn't actually seen Detroit's defense in action -- isn't factored out either.
That "luck," for lack of a clearer term, shows up in Verlander's career-low BABIP, or the batting average he's allowed on balls in play, of .234. Pitchers have little control over whether a ball in play becomes a hit beyond some ability to generate more groundballs or fewer line drives. So Verlander's dominance this year may be boosted by some good fortune that isn't likely to continue; many voters would disagree, but I prefer to use heavily normalized statistics where possible to try to isolate individual value, which would mean taking credit for that low BABIP away from Verlander, dragging his WAR even further below Bautista's. Even if he throws 260 innings or is credited with 26 pitcher wins, he's probably not going to be the most valuable player in the league.
[h3]Adrian Gonzalez[/h3]
Yes, the RBIs are pretty, but they're a function of all the guys Gonzalez has had on base for him, and he doesn't play a premium position. Great player. Nowhere near MVP status.
[h3]Curtis Granderson[/h3]
The most valuable position player on what may be the team with the best record in the American League by the end of the season, and if you throw out the defensive runs figures on FanGraphs -- not that I'm advocating you do such a thing -- Granderson is second in the league behind Bautista, as UZR shows him at nine runs below the mean for all AL centerfielders this year and Baseball-Reference concurs. He's also third in the AL in wOBA, a total-offense rate stat, behind Bautista and Cabrera. I don't know if Granderson is suffering from playing with a former centerfielder, Brett Gardner, to his right, but I've never seen Granderson as a below-average defender, and he wasn't one statistically until this year. I wouldn't put him first on my ballot under any circumstances right now, but I could understand any voter who put him second or third due to skepticism at the implied collapse of his glove.
[h3]The National League[/h3]
Colleague Jayson Stark is breaking down the NL MVP race today, but since I know you'll ask, right now I'd have Halladay at the top of my ballot, followed by Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki, any of whom could end up the leader at the end of the season.
[h4]MVP Candidates[/h4]
A look at top candidates based on Wins Above Replacement from FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (rWAR):
| Jose Bautista | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 6.8 | 6.1 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Justin Verlander | 6.2 | 6.9 |
| Ben Zobrist | 6.2 | 5.1 |
| Curtis Granderson | 5.6 | 4.2 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 5.0 | 5.2 |
The various types of Wins Above Replacement calculations share a common goal: To measure each player's individual value as accurately as possible. For a position player, that means totaling up the value of everything he produced as a hitter (and the value he destroyed every time he made an out); plus the value he produced or destroyed on the bases; plus the value he produced or destroyed on defense. For a pitcher, it means adding up the value of the outs he generated and subtracting the value of the hits and walks he allowed; it may also mean adjusting the value of the balls he allowed into play to try to back out any help received from his defense. In all contexts, the statistics should be adjusted for ballpark, although they're not adjusted to reflect the unbalanced schedules big leaguers face.
The defensive numbers bundled into WAR are somewhat controversial, of course, in part because they're new, in part because they're opaque, and more than anything else because there are multiple stats purporting to measure the same thing but giving us different results. But I respect the statistics even with their limitations, because when we're trying to get a reasonable measurement of defensive value, these statistics are better than a scout's eyes in a small sample of games, which is in turn better than a divining rod, which is in turn better than fielding percentage, which is the worst thing to happen to baseball since Bowie Kuhn finished trying to run the game into the ground.
With all of that in mind, here's a rundown of the leading candidates, including some more qualitative arguments about their cases, starting with the obvious -- or should-be-obvious -- MVP to date.
[h3]Jose Bautista[/h3]
He's leading the AL in on-base percentage and in slugging percentage, with giant margins in both categories, while playing adequate defense across two positions. His OBP is somewhat boosted by intentional walks, but without them he'd still lead the league in OBP by 12 points. (Even without those intentional walks, his fWAR is still 7.0, tops in the AL). He's been far and away the most valuable player in the league, and the only reason I can see that he's not getting his due as such is that he plays for a non-contender.
Because, let's face it, that's the real problem with Bautista's candidacy: For the voters still clinging to an outdated notion of value, there's nothing he could do to earn the MVP award while he plays on a non-playoff team. But where can the argument be? You can't even make a win-probability argument against him -- that is, to say that his performance hasn't directly resulted in wins -- because he's leading the AL in win probability added (WPA), which factors in the timing (inning, score) of offensive performance and credits the hitter with the change in the team's probability of winning the game. And he's not leading by a little bit -- his net WPA of 6.50 is nearly 50 percent higher than the second-highest figure, 4.39 by Miguel Cabrera. I don't advocate the use of WPA to determine the MVP because it's still context-dependent, but if you care about context, it's a sound measure, and points to Bautista in a landslide.
[h3]Dustin Pedroia[/h3]
Pedroia's case here rests to a surprising degree on where he plays: he gets two boosts from playing a position up the middle and from playing it exceptionally well this year, a fairly extreme outlier compared to the rest of his career. Pedroia has made himself into an above-average defender, producing fairly consistent defensive ratings in each of his first four full seasons. This year, his UZR figure, representing runs saved above an average second baseman, is higher than the combined total for the previous two years and has him as the best defensive second baseman in the game (although the current crop of defenders at that position is pretty weak overall).
As a hitter, Pedroia ranks ninth in the American League in FanGraphs' Batting Runs, dead even with Ben Zobrist, and only moves up the rankings on the high fielding rating and the boost he gets for playing second base. (In fact, the difference between Pedroia and Zobrist this year is almost entirely fielding, with small adjustments in Pedroia's favor for playing time and because Zobrist has played 33 games in the outfield.) An argument for Pedroia over Bautista involves team record and a fervent belief that the large uptick in Pedroia's defensive numbers is accurate. I'm skeptical on the second part, but even if I take it at face value the first part holds no water with me.
[h3]Jacoby Ellsbury[/h3]
Ellsbury also plays a position up the middle and has had the good fortune to come up in enough critical situations that he's racked up the third-best WPA figure in the league in addition to earning some mainstream "clutch" points or positive qi or whatever sort of woo some use to decide whose team is good enough for its players to be considered for an MVP ballot. Ellsbury was one of the better defensive centerfield prospects I've seen, at least in terms of range, but his defensive scores as a big leaguer have been all over the place (more evidence in favor of the argument that a single season isn't a sufficient sample when attempting to judge a player's defensive ability).
But his defensive value isn't the big reason for the jump in his WAR totals -- he's started hitting for power like never before, generating more offensive value in four months this year than he had in over 300 games coming into this year and more than doubling his career home run total. He has shown the ability to drop the bat head and drive the ball out to right-center this year, so I'm not convinced it's a fluke, but the value created by the home runs is real either way. I am a lot more comfortable with his defensive ratings than I am with Pedroia's, though.
[h3]Justin Verlander[/h3]
I'm not sure what sort of voting calamity would have to occur for a pitcher to win an MVP award, but indulge me for the moment, since the rules for MVP voters do not in any way exclude pitchers, and any voter who omits them entirely is violating the spirit of those rules, if not their letter as well. And such a voter is also ignoring the value that a top-end starting pitcher can create, whether it's Roy Halladay this year in the National League or Verlander in the American.
The FanGraphs version of WAR relies on FIP, a very simple ERA estimator that is probably too simple -- a back-of-the-envelope calculation where a more rigorous one would do the job better -- and might slightly overrate Verlander, who fares a little worse in any of the other three major ERA estimators (SIERA, tERA, and xFIP) I know of. (An ERA estimator looks at the individual results allowed by a pitcher over which he has significant control, including strikeouts, walks, home runs, and groundball or line drive rates, and uses them to construct a more "neutral" ERA-like statistic that should give us a more accurate picture of how much the pitcher contributed to his team. They assume many things, including that all pitchers suffer roughly the same loss of effectiveness when pitching from the stretch.) Baseball-Reference's version of WAR is based strictly on a pitcher's ERA, so the boost Verlander gets from his ballpark is still present there, and the fact that he's been "lucky" on balls in play -- one might say he's been helped by his defense, assuming one hasn't actually seen Detroit's defense in action -- isn't factored out either.
That "luck," for lack of a clearer term, shows up in Verlander's career-low BABIP, or the batting average he's allowed on balls in play, of .234. Pitchers have little control over whether a ball in play becomes a hit beyond some ability to generate more groundballs or fewer line drives. So Verlander's dominance this year may be boosted by some good fortune that isn't likely to continue; many voters would disagree, but I prefer to use heavily normalized statistics where possible to try to isolate individual value, which would mean taking credit for that low BABIP away from Verlander, dragging his WAR even further below Bautista's. Even if he throws 260 innings or is credited with 26 pitcher wins, he's probably not going to be the most valuable player in the league.
[h3]Adrian Gonzalez[/h3]
Yes, the RBIs are pretty, but they're a function of all the guys Gonzalez has had on base for him, and he doesn't play a premium position. Great player. Nowhere near MVP status.
[h3]Curtis Granderson[/h3]
The most valuable position player on what may be the team with the best record in the American League by the end of the season, and if you throw out the defensive runs figures on FanGraphs -- not that I'm advocating you do such a thing -- Granderson is second in the league behind Bautista, as UZR shows him at nine runs below the mean for all AL centerfielders this year and Baseball-Reference concurs. He's also third in the AL in wOBA, a total-offense rate stat, behind Bautista and Cabrera. I don't know if Granderson is suffering from playing with a former centerfielder, Brett Gardner, to his right, but I've never seen Granderson as a below-average defender, and he wasn't one statistically until this year. I wouldn't put him first on my ballot under any circumstances right now, but I could understand any voter who put him second or third due to skepticism at the implied collapse of his glove.
[h3]The National League[/h3]
Colleague Jayson Stark is breaking down the NL MVP race today, but since I know you'll ask, right now I'd have Halladay at the top of my ballot, followed by Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki, any of whom could end up the leader at the end of the season.
Should Arizona call up Bauer?
Spoiler [+]
Unlike most of the top picks who waited until just before the August 15 signing deadline to agree to terms, Bauer put his name on the dotted line during the last week in July. So by the time Monday night rolled around, he had already struck out 17 of the 39 batters he faced during three California League outings and then whiffed eight more over five shutout innings in his Double-A debut on Sunday. The plan, as publicly stated when he signed, was for Bauer to pitch somewhere around 30 innings post-signing, and he's already at 14. But with the D-backs in first place in the National League West, and in the midst of a fairly tight race with the San Francisco Giants, there are already whispers that Bauer might be called up this year. Could he help the Diamondbacks down the stretch? More importantly, should he?
Make no mistake about it, Bauer is good. With a low-to-mid 90s fastball, knee-buckling curve and diving changeup, he has three plus pitches, and he'll even throw a solid slider on occasion to provide a different look to hitters. He throws strikes and maintains his stuff deep into games, and he was the best pitcher in college baseball this spring. "It's always worked for him and I think it always will," said one National League scout. "I think he'd be fine in the big leagues, and he won't be afraid."
There's little doubt that Trevor Bauer can handle big league hitters, but the length of Bauer's UCLA season and his heavy college workload should indicate to the Diamondbacks that while flags fly forever, it might not be worth risking the career of a potential ace. UCLA's baseball season began in February, with practices starting in January. That means that other than a six-week break between his final outing for the Bruins and his pro debut, Bauer has been pitching for eight months already, and to extend him into the playoffs could stretch that into the 10-month range, a risky endeavor for a 20-year-old.
Then, there is the workload itself. Bauer threw 136 2/3 innings for UCLA this year in just 16 starts. He averaged more than eight innings per outing and did not go the distance only six times, while throwing a full nine in each of his last nine starts. Including his brief professional career, he's already at 150 innings, which would be at or above the normal workload expectation from a more mortal prospect of the same age.
Bauer's pitch counts are even more troubling. While big league teams rarely push prospects past 100 in minor league games, Bauer's college pitching lines look like something from the 1970s. Only four times in 2011 has a pitcher hit the 130 pitch mark in the majors, with Tim Lincecum's 133-pitch effort on May 21 being the high. Bauer matched or exceeded the 133 mark in half of his 16 starts, including a stretch of six in a row, with a high of 140 in a 10-1 win over Cal-State Bakersfield when the game was already a guaranteed Bruins victory after an eight-run third. (It should be noted that Bauer pitched on six days' rest at UCLA, as opposed to the typical four days for big leaguers.)
Much has been made of Bauer's uniqueness as a prospect. At 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, he's not exactly the kind of traditional power body normally associated with such workloads, which has led to nearly unavoidable yet unfair comparisons to Tim Lincecum. Bauer is a disciple of the long-tossing regimen as well as many in-between start exercises designed to build and maintain arm strength, and while it's worked so far, the book is far from closed on the effectiveness of his routines. They've worked so far, but it hasn't been proven on a long-term basis, and the potential risk is just too great.
Bauer is good enough to compete for a rotation job next spring and give the Diamondbacks at least six years of star-level performances, if not more. That's 200 starts and 1,200-plus innings, with the always-necessary caveat that he remains injury-free. Yes, he just might be the next pitcher for whom workload really isn't an issue, like Halladay or Lincecum or Sabathia, but finding that out right now isn't worth risking the potential payoff down the road.
Make no mistake about it, Bauer is good. With a low-to-mid 90s fastball, knee-buckling curve and diving changeup, he has three plus pitches, and he'll even throw a solid slider on occasion to provide a different look to hitters. He throws strikes and maintains his stuff deep into games, and he was the best pitcher in college baseball this spring. "It's always worked for him and I think it always will," said one National League scout. "I think he'd be fine in the big leagues, and he won't be afraid."
There's little doubt that Trevor Bauer can handle big league hitters, but the length of Bauer's UCLA season and his heavy college workload should indicate to the Diamondbacks that while flags fly forever, it might not be worth risking the career of a potential ace. UCLA's baseball season began in February, with practices starting in January. That means that other than a six-week break between his final outing for the Bruins and his pro debut, Bauer has been pitching for eight months already, and to extend him into the playoffs could stretch that into the 10-month range, a risky endeavor for a 20-year-old.
Then, there is the workload itself. Bauer threw 136 2/3 innings for UCLA this year in just 16 starts. He averaged more than eight innings per outing and did not go the distance only six times, while throwing a full nine in each of his last nine starts. Including his brief professional career, he's already at 150 innings, which would be at or above the normal workload expectation from a more mortal prospect of the same age.
Bauer's pitch counts are even more troubling. While big league teams rarely push prospects past 100 in minor league games, Bauer's college pitching lines look like something from the 1970s. Only four times in 2011 has a pitcher hit the 130 pitch mark in the majors, with Tim Lincecum's 133-pitch effort on May 21 being the high. Bauer matched or exceeded the 133 mark in half of his 16 starts, including a stretch of six in a row, with a high of 140 in a 10-1 win over Cal-State Bakersfield when the game was already a guaranteed Bruins victory after an eight-run third. (It should be noted that Bauer pitched on six days' rest at UCLA, as opposed to the typical four days for big leaguers.)
Much has been made of Bauer's uniqueness as a prospect. At 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, he's not exactly the kind of traditional power body normally associated with such workloads, which has led to nearly unavoidable yet unfair comparisons to Tim Lincecum. Bauer is a disciple of the long-tossing regimen as well as many in-between start exercises designed to build and maintain arm strength, and while it's worked so far, the book is far from closed on the effectiveness of his routines. They've worked so far, but it hasn't been proven on a long-term basis, and the potential risk is just too great.
Bauer is good enough to compete for a rotation job next spring and give the Diamondbacks at least six years of star-level performances, if not more. That's 200 starts and 1,200-plus innings, with the always-necessary caveat that he remains injury-free. Yes, he just might be the next pitcher for whom workload really isn't an issue, like Halladay or Lincecum or Sabathia, but finding that out right now isn't worth risking the potential payoff down the road.
Phillies weakness?
Spoiler [+]
Thanks to a pitching staff that is even better than expected -- and expectations were high -- the Philadelphia Phillies are in the midst of an all-time great season. The Phils are currently on pace for 105 wins, which would tie them for ninth on the National League single-season wins list.
With a 7½-game lead in the NL East, the Phillies are in cruise control and can start looking ahead to the playoffs. While the Phils' offense is merely average (seventh in the NL in runs), their starting pitching, led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, makes them clear favorites to reach the World Series.
However, when examining the Phils' 2011 résumé, there is one aspect of their performance that raises questions about their postseason chances. To succeed in October, it would stand to reason that you need to be able to beat the best. However, much of the Phillies' gaudy record is based upon the fact that they have beaten up on the worst teams.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Phillies are 36-11 against teams with a winning percentage below .470. That .766 winning percentage against such clubs is by far the best in baseball. The New York Yankees, at 26-10 (.722), have the next best mark against sub.-470 teams. (I chose .470 as the cutoff because that is the winning percentage of teams that finish the season 10 games under .500.) In fact, if that .766 winning percentage holds, it would be the fourth-best mark against sub-.470 teams of the wild-card era, just ahead of the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who set the record for regular-season wins before flaming out in the ALCS.
But when playing teams on pace to finish at least 10 games over .500 (.530 winning percentage), the Phillies are just 16-16. That's the sixth-best record in baseball against such clubs, and worse than their NL East rivals, the Atlanta Braves. Who fares the best against .530-plus teams? That would be the Boston Red Sox, who are 24-15.
This seems like bad news for the Phillies, because one would think a potential World Series champ would have more success against the league's best. To see if there is any truth to that hypothesis, I went back to see how the last 10 World Series champs fared against the sub-.470 and .530-plus clubs. In theory, the World Series champs should consistently perform well against the good teams, and that would be an indicator of postseason success.
[h4]Past 10 World Series Champions[/h4]
[th=""]YEAR[/th][th=""]TEAM[/th][th=""]Win pct against sub-.470 teams[/th][th=""]Win pct against .530-plus teams[/th]
As it turns out, that's not really the case at all. The World Series champs, with the exception of the 2006 Cardinals, have all beat the snot out of the sub-.470 clubs, and even the Cards fared pretty well. The champs' performance against the .530-plus clubs, however, has varied widely. Just last year, the Giants had the best record in baseball against the sub-.470 teams (35-14), but their mark versus the .530-plus teams (20-27) ranked 15th.
It's not surprising that the World Series champs would beat up on the bad teams. The ability to do so consistently, in fact, is typically the sign of a strong team. However, you would expect World Series champs to fare well against good squads during the regular season, and that hasn't happened this century.
In fact, beating up on the weaklings seems to be a better indicator of postseason success. To wit: The 1998 New York Yankees, the team many consider the best in recent history, went 52-12 against sub-.470 teams, which is the best mark of the wild-card era.
If recent history is any guide, the Phils' remarkable record against poor squads says more about their title chances than their pedestrian record against good teams. So if you want nitpick something regarding their World Series hopes, you'll have to look elsewhere.
With a 7½-game lead in the NL East, the Phillies are in cruise control and can start looking ahead to the playoffs. While the Phils' offense is merely average (seventh in the NL in runs), their starting pitching, led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, makes them clear favorites to reach the World Series.
However, when examining the Phils' 2011 résumé, there is one aspect of their performance that raises questions about their postseason chances. To succeed in October, it would stand to reason that you need to be able to beat the best. However, much of the Phillies' gaudy record is based upon the fact that they have beaten up on the worst teams.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Phillies are 36-11 against teams with a winning percentage below .470. That .766 winning percentage against such clubs is by far the best in baseball. The New York Yankees, at 26-10 (.722), have the next best mark against sub.-470 teams. (I chose .470 as the cutoff because that is the winning percentage of teams that finish the season 10 games under .500.) In fact, if that .766 winning percentage holds, it would be the fourth-best mark against sub-.470 teams of the wild-card era, just ahead of the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who set the record for regular-season wins before flaming out in the ALCS.
But when playing teams on pace to finish at least 10 games over .500 (.530 winning percentage), the Phillies are just 16-16. That's the sixth-best record in baseball against such clubs, and worse than their NL East rivals, the Atlanta Braves. Who fares the best against .530-plus teams? That would be the Boston Red Sox, who are 24-15.
This seems like bad news for the Phillies, because one would think a potential World Series champ would have more success against the league's best. To see if there is any truth to that hypothesis, I went back to see how the last 10 World Series champs fared against the sub-.470 and .530-plus clubs. In theory, the World Series champs should consistently perform well against the good teams, and that would be an indicator of postseason success.
[h4]Past 10 World Series Champions[/h4]
| 2010 | Giants | .714 | .426 |
| 2009 | Yankees | .691 | .566 |
| 2008 | Phillies | .686 | .482 |
| 2007 | Red Sox | .676 | .517 |
| 2006 | Cardinals | .557 | .440 |
| 2005 | White Sox | .742 | .510 |
| 2004 | Red Sox | .698 | .567 |
| 2003 | Marlins | .638 | .484 |
| 2002 | Angels | .743 | .451 |
| 2001 | D-backs | .655 | .494 |
As it turns out, that's not really the case at all. The World Series champs, with the exception of the 2006 Cardinals, have all beat the snot out of the sub-.470 clubs, and even the Cards fared pretty well. The champs' performance against the .530-plus clubs, however, has varied widely. Just last year, the Giants had the best record in baseball against the sub-.470 teams (35-14), but their mark versus the .530-plus teams (20-27) ranked 15th.
It's not surprising that the World Series champs would beat up on the bad teams. The ability to do so consistently, in fact, is typically the sign of a strong team. However, you would expect World Series champs to fare well against good squads during the regular season, and that hasn't happened this century.
In fact, beating up on the weaklings seems to be a better indicator of postseason success. To wit: The 1998 New York Yankees, the team many consider the best in recent history, went 52-12 against sub-.470 teams, which is the best mark of the wild-card era.
If recent history is any guide, the Phils' remarkable record against poor squads says more about their title chances than their pedestrian record against good teams. So if you want nitpick something regarding their World Series hopes, you'll have to look elsewhere.
Breaking down the AL MVP race.
Should Arizona call up Bauer?
Phillies weakness?
Spoiler [+]
When it comes to the MVP award, I prefer to set aside my scouting hat and focus just on performance measurement -- and we have plenty of tools available to us to help guide us to the right answer to the question: "Who produced the most value for his team this year?" And the stat that best gets at this question, in my opinion, is Wins Above Replacement, better known as WAR. Here's a table of the top candidates for the American League MVP award showing their WAR totals to date using two methods, one from FanGraphs (fWAR) and one from Baseball-Reference (rWAR), both sites I typically keep open in browser tabs from the moment I turn on the computer in the morning until I shut it off at night.
[h4]MVP Candidates[/h4]
A look at top candidates based on Wins Above Replacement from FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (rWAR):
[th=""]Player[/th][th=""]fWAR[/th][th=""]rWAR[/th]
The various types of Wins Above Replacement calculations share a common goal: To measure each player's individual value as accurately as possible. For a position player, that means totaling up the value of everything he produced as a hitter (and the value he destroyed every time he made an out); plus the value he produced or destroyed on the bases; plus the value he produced or destroyed on defense. For a pitcher, it means adding up the value of the outs he generated and subtracting the value of the hits and walks he allowed; it may also mean adjusting the value of the balls he allowed into play to try to back out any help received from his defense. In all contexts, the statistics should be adjusted for ballpark, although they're not adjusted to reflect the unbalanced schedules big leaguers face.
The defensive numbers bundled into WAR are somewhat controversial, of course, in part because they're new, in part because they're opaque, and more than anything else because there are multiple stats purporting to measure the same thing but giving us different results. But I respect the statistics even with their limitations, because when we're trying to get a reasonable measurement of defensive value, these statistics are better than a scout's eyes in a small sample of games, which is in turn better than a divining rod, which is in turn better than fielding percentage, which is the worst thing to happen to baseball since Bowie Kuhn finished trying to run the game into the ground.
With all of that in mind, here's a rundown of the leading candidates, including some more qualitative arguments about their cases, starting with the obvious -- or should-be-obvious -- MVP to date.
[h3]Jose Bautista[/h3]
He's leading the AL in on-base percentage and in slugging percentage, with giant margins in both categories, while playing adequate defense across two positions. His OBP is somewhat boosted by intentional walks, but without them he'd still lead the league in OBP by 12 points. (Even without those intentional walks, his fWAR is still 7.0, tops in the AL). He's been far and away the most valuable player in the league, and the only reason I can see that he's not getting his due as such is that he plays for a non-contender.
Because, let's face it, that's the real problem with Bautista's candidacy: For the voters still clinging to an outdated notion of value, there's nothing he could do to earn the MVP award while he plays on a non-playoff team. But where can the argument be? You can't even make a win-probability argument against him -- that is, to say that his performance hasn't directly resulted in wins -- because he's leading the AL in win probability added (WPA), which factors in the timing (inning, score) of offensive performance and credits the hitter with the change in the team's probability of winning the game. And he's not leading by a little bit -- his net WPA of 6.50 is nearly 50 percent higher than the second-highest figure, 4.39 by Miguel Cabrera. I don't advocate the use of WPA to determine the MVP because it's still context-dependent, but if you care about context, it's a sound measure, and points to Bautista in a landslide.
[h3]Dustin Pedroia[/h3]
Pedroia's case here rests to a surprising degree on where he plays: he gets two boosts from playing a position up the middle and from playing it exceptionally well this year, a fairly extreme outlier compared to the rest of his career. Pedroia has made himself into an above-average defender, producing fairly consistent defensive ratings in each of his first four full seasons. This year, his UZR figure, representing runs saved above an average second baseman, is higher than the combined total for the previous two years and has him as the best defensive second baseman in the game (although the current crop of defenders at that position is pretty weak overall).
As a hitter, Pedroia ranks ninth in the American League in FanGraphs' Batting Runs, dead even with Ben Zobrist, and only moves up the rankings on the high fielding rating and the boost he gets for playing second base. (In fact, the difference between Pedroia and Zobrist this year is almost entirely fielding, with small adjustments in Pedroia's favor for playing time and because Zobrist has played 33 games in the outfield.) An argument for Pedroia over Bautista involves team record and a fervent belief that the large uptick in Pedroia's defensive numbers is accurate. I'm skeptical on the second part, but even if I take it at face value the first part holds no water with me.
[h3]Jacoby Ellsbury[/h3]
Ellsbury also plays a position up the middle and has had the good fortune to come up in enough critical situations that he's racked up the third-best WPA figure in the league in addition to earning some mainstream "clutch" points or positive qi or whatever sort of woo some use to decide whose team is good enough for its players to be considered for an MVP ballot. Ellsbury was one of the better defensive centerfield prospects I've seen, at least in terms of range, but his defensive scores as a big leaguer have been all over the place (more evidence in favor of the argument that a single season isn't a sufficient sample when attempting to judge a player's defensive ability).
But his defensive value isn't the big reason for the jump in his WAR totals -- he's started hitting for power like never before, generating more offensive value in four months this year than he had in over 300 games coming into this year and more than doubling his career home run total. He has shown the ability to drop the bat head and drive the ball out to right-center this year, so I'm not convinced it's a fluke, but the value created by the home runs is real either way. I am a lot more comfortable with his defensive ratings than I am with Pedroia's, though.
[h3]Justin Verlander[/h3]
I'm not sure what sort of voting calamity would have to occur for a pitcher to win an MVP award, but indulge me for the moment, since the rules for MVP voters do not in any way exclude pitchers, and any voter who omits them entirely is violating the spirit of those rules, if not their letter as well. And such a voter is also ignoring the value that a top-end starting pitcher can create, whether it's Roy Halladay this year in the National League or Verlander in the American.
The FanGraphs version of WAR relies on FIP, a very simple ERA estimator that is probably too simple -- a back-of-the-envelope calculation where a more rigorous one would do the job better -- and might slightly overrate Verlander, who fares a little worse in any of the other three major ERA estimators (SIERA, tERA, and xFIP) I know of. (An ERA estimator looks at the individual results allowed by a pitcher over which he has significant control, including strikeouts, walks, home runs, and groundball or line drive rates, and uses them to construct a more "neutral" ERA-like statistic that should give us a more accurate picture of how much the pitcher contributed to his team. They assume many things, including that all pitchers suffer roughly the same loss of effectiveness when pitching from the stretch.) Baseball-Reference's version of WAR is based strictly on a pitcher's ERA, so the boost Verlander gets from his ballpark is still present there, and the fact that he's been "lucky" on balls in play -- one might say he's been helped by his defense, assuming one hasn't actually seen Detroit's defense in action -- isn't factored out either.
That "luck," for lack of a clearer term, shows up in Verlander's career-low BABIP, or the batting average he's allowed on balls in play, of .234. Pitchers have little control over whether a ball in play becomes a hit beyond some ability to generate more groundballs or fewer line drives. So Verlander's dominance this year may be boosted by some good fortune that isn't likely to continue; many voters would disagree, but I prefer to use heavily normalized statistics where possible to try to isolate individual value, which would mean taking credit for that low BABIP away from Verlander, dragging his WAR even further below Bautista's. Even if he throws 260 innings or is credited with 26 pitcher wins, he's probably not going to be the most valuable player in the league.
[h3]Adrian Gonzalez[/h3]
Yes, the RBIs are pretty, but they're a function of all the guys Gonzalez has had on base for him, and he doesn't play a premium position. Great player. Nowhere near MVP status.
[h3]Curtis Granderson[/h3]
The most valuable position player on what may be the team with the best record in the American League by the end of the season, and if you throw out the defensive runs figures on FanGraphs -- not that I'm advocating you do such a thing -- Granderson is second in the league behind Bautista, as UZR shows him at nine runs below the mean for all AL centerfielders this year and Baseball-Reference concurs. He's also third in the AL in wOBA, a total-offense rate stat, behind Bautista and Cabrera. I don't know if Granderson is suffering from playing with a former centerfielder, Brett Gardner, to his right, but I've never seen Granderson as a below-average defender, and he wasn't one statistically until this year. I wouldn't put him first on my ballot under any circumstances right now, but I could understand any voter who put him second or third due to skepticism at the implied collapse of his glove.
[h3]The National League[/h3]
Colleague Jayson Stark is breaking down the NL MVP race today, but since I know you'll ask, right now I'd have Halladay at the top of my ballot, followed by Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki, any of whom could end up the leader at the end of the season.
[h4]MVP Candidates[/h4]
A look at top candidates based on Wins Above Replacement from FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (rWAR):
| Jose Bautista | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 6.8 | 6.1 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Justin Verlander | 6.2 | 6.9 |
| Ben Zobrist | 6.2 | 5.1 |
| Curtis Granderson | 5.6 | 4.2 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 5.0 | 5.2 |
The various types of Wins Above Replacement calculations share a common goal: To measure each player's individual value as accurately as possible. For a position player, that means totaling up the value of everything he produced as a hitter (and the value he destroyed every time he made an out); plus the value he produced or destroyed on the bases; plus the value he produced or destroyed on defense. For a pitcher, it means adding up the value of the outs he generated and subtracting the value of the hits and walks he allowed; it may also mean adjusting the value of the balls he allowed into play to try to back out any help received from his defense. In all contexts, the statistics should be adjusted for ballpark, although they're not adjusted to reflect the unbalanced schedules big leaguers face.
The defensive numbers bundled into WAR are somewhat controversial, of course, in part because they're new, in part because they're opaque, and more than anything else because there are multiple stats purporting to measure the same thing but giving us different results. But I respect the statistics even with their limitations, because when we're trying to get a reasonable measurement of defensive value, these statistics are better than a scout's eyes in a small sample of games, which is in turn better than a divining rod, which is in turn better than fielding percentage, which is the worst thing to happen to baseball since Bowie Kuhn finished trying to run the game into the ground.
With all of that in mind, here's a rundown of the leading candidates, including some more qualitative arguments about their cases, starting with the obvious -- or should-be-obvious -- MVP to date.
[h3]Jose Bautista[/h3]
He's leading the AL in on-base percentage and in slugging percentage, with giant margins in both categories, while playing adequate defense across two positions. His OBP is somewhat boosted by intentional walks, but without them he'd still lead the league in OBP by 12 points. (Even without those intentional walks, his fWAR is still 7.0, tops in the AL). He's been far and away the most valuable player in the league, and the only reason I can see that he's not getting his due as such is that he plays for a non-contender.
Because, let's face it, that's the real problem with Bautista's candidacy: For the voters still clinging to an outdated notion of value, there's nothing he could do to earn the MVP award while he plays on a non-playoff team. But where can the argument be? You can't even make a win-probability argument against him -- that is, to say that his performance hasn't directly resulted in wins -- because he's leading the AL in win probability added (WPA), which factors in the timing (inning, score) of offensive performance and credits the hitter with the change in the team's probability of winning the game. And he's not leading by a little bit -- his net WPA of 6.50 is nearly 50 percent higher than the second-highest figure, 4.39 by Miguel Cabrera. I don't advocate the use of WPA to determine the MVP because it's still context-dependent, but if you care about context, it's a sound measure, and points to Bautista in a landslide.
[h3]Dustin Pedroia[/h3]
Pedroia's case here rests to a surprising degree on where he plays: he gets two boosts from playing a position up the middle and from playing it exceptionally well this year, a fairly extreme outlier compared to the rest of his career. Pedroia has made himself into an above-average defender, producing fairly consistent defensive ratings in each of his first four full seasons. This year, his UZR figure, representing runs saved above an average second baseman, is higher than the combined total for the previous two years and has him as the best defensive second baseman in the game (although the current crop of defenders at that position is pretty weak overall).
As a hitter, Pedroia ranks ninth in the American League in FanGraphs' Batting Runs, dead even with Ben Zobrist, and only moves up the rankings on the high fielding rating and the boost he gets for playing second base. (In fact, the difference between Pedroia and Zobrist this year is almost entirely fielding, with small adjustments in Pedroia's favor for playing time and because Zobrist has played 33 games in the outfield.) An argument for Pedroia over Bautista involves team record and a fervent belief that the large uptick in Pedroia's defensive numbers is accurate. I'm skeptical on the second part, but even if I take it at face value the first part holds no water with me.
[h3]Jacoby Ellsbury[/h3]
Ellsbury also plays a position up the middle and has had the good fortune to come up in enough critical situations that he's racked up the third-best WPA figure in the league in addition to earning some mainstream "clutch" points or positive qi or whatever sort of woo some use to decide whose team is good enough for its players to be considered for an MVP ballot. Ellsbury was one of the better defensive centerfield prospects I've seen, at least in terms of range, but his defensive scores as a big leaguer have been all over the place (more evidence in favor of the argument that a single season isn't a sufficient sample when attempting to judge a player's defensive ability).
But his defensive value isn't the big reason for the jump in his WAR totals -- he's started hitting for power like never before, generating more offensive value in four months this year than he had in over 300 games coming into this year and more than doubling his career home run total. He has shown the ability to drop the bat head and drive the ball out to right-center this year, so I'm not convinced it's a fluke, but the value created by the home runs is real either way. I am a lot more comfortable with his defensive ratings than I am with Pedroia's, though.
[h3]Justin Verlander[/h3]
I'm not sure what sort of voting calamity would have to occur for a pitcher to win an MVP award, but indulge me for the moment, since the rules for MVP voters do not in any way exclude pitchers, and any voter who omits them entirely is violating the spirit of those rules, if not their letter as well. And such a voter is also ignoring the value that a top-end starting pitcher can create, whether it's Roy Halladay this year in the National League or Verlander in the American.
The FanGraphs version of WAR relies on FIP, a very simple ERA estimator that is probably too simple -- a back-of-the-envelope calculation where a more rigorous one would do the job better -- and might slightly overrate Verlander, who fares a little worse in any of the other three major ERA estimators (SIERA, tERA, and xFIP) I know of. (An ERA estimator looks at the individual results allowed by a pitcher over which he has significant control, including strikeouts, walks, home runs, and groundball or line drive rates, and uses them to construct a more "neutral" ERA-like statistic that should give us a more accurate picture of how much the pitcher contributed to his team. They assume many things, including that all pitchers suffer roughly the same loss of effectiveness when pitching from the stretch.) Baseball-Reference's version of WAR is based strictly on a pitcher's ERA, so the boost Verlander gets from his ballpark is still present there, and the fact that he's been "lucky" on balls in play -- one might say he's been helped by his defense, assuming one hasn't actually seen Detroit's defense in action -- isn't factored out either.
That "luck," for lack of a clearer term, shows up in Verlander's career-low BABIP, or the batting average he's allowed on balls in play, of .234. Pitchers have little control over whether a ball in play becomes a hit beyond some ability to generate more groundballs or fewer line drives. So Verlander's dominance this year may be boosted by some good fortune that isn't likely to continue; many voters would disagree, but I prefer to use heavily normalized statistics where possible to try to isolate individual value, which would mean taking credit for that low BABIP away from Verlander, dragging his WAR even further below Bautista's. Even if he throws 260 innings or is credited with 26 pitcher wins, he's probably not going to be the most valuable player in the league.
[h3]Adrian Gonzalez[/h3]
Yes, the RBIs are pretty, but they're a function of all the guys Gonzalez has had on base for him, and he doesn't play a premium position. Great player. Nowhere near MVP status.
[h3]Curtis Granderson[/h3]
The most valuable position player on what may be the team with the best record in the American League by the end of the season, and if you throw out the defensive runs figures on FanGraphs -- not that I'm advocating you do such a thing -- Granderson is second in the league behind Bautista, as UZR shows him at nine runs below the mean for all AL centerfielders this year and Baseball-Reference concurs. He's also third in the AL in wOBA, a total-offense rate stat, behind Bautista and Cabrera. I don't know if Granderson is suffering from playing with a former centerfielder, Brett Gardner, to his right, but I've never seen Granderson as a below-average defender, and he wasn't one statistically until this year. I wouldn't put him first on my ballot under any circumstances right now, but I could understand any voter who put him second or third due to skepticism at the implied collapse of his glove.
[h3]The National League[/h3]
Colleague Jayson Stark is breaking down the NL MVP race today, but since I know you'll ask, right now I'd have Halladay at the top of my ballot, followed by Justin Upton and Troy Tulowitzki, any of whom could end up the leader at the end of the season.
Should Arizona call up Bauer?
Spoiler [+]
Unlike most of the top picks who waited until just before the August 15 signing deadline to agree to terms, Bauer put his name on the dotted line during the last week in July. So by the time Monday night rolled around, he had already struck out 17 of the 39 batters he faced during three California League outings and then whiffed eight more over five shutout innings in his Double-A debut on Sunday. The plan, as publicly stated when he signed, was for Bauer to pitch somewhere around 30 innings post-signing, and he's already at 14. But with the D-backs in first place in the National League West, and in the midst of a fairly tight race with the San Francisco Giants, there are already whispers that Bauer might be called up this year. Could he help the Diamondbacks down the stretch? More importantly, should he?
Make no mistake about it, Bauer is good. With a low-to-mid 90s fastball, knee-buckling curve and diving changeup, he has three plus pitches, and he'll even throw a solid slider on occasion to provide a different look to hitters. He throws strikes and maintains his stuff deep into games, and he was the best pitcher in college baseball this spring. "It's always worked for him and I think it always will," said one National League scout. "I think he'd be fine in the big leagues, and he won't be afraid."
There's little doubt that Trevor Bauer can handle big league hitters, but the length of Bauer's UCLA season and his heavy college workload should indicate to the Diamondbacks that while flags fly forever, it might not be worth risking the career of a potential ace. UCLA's baseball season began in February, with practices starting in January. That means that other than a six-week break between his final outing for the Bruins and his pro debut, Bauer has been pitching for eight months already, and to extend him into the playoffs could stretch that into the 10-month range, a risky endeavor for a 20-year-old.
Then, there is the workload itself. Bauer threw 136 2/3 innings for UCLA this year in just 16 starts. He averaged more than eight innings per outing and did not go the distance only six times, while throwing a full nine in each of his last nine starts. Including his brief professional career, he's already at 150 innings, which would be at or above the normal workload expectation from a more mortal prospect of the same age.
Bauer's pitch counts are even more troubling. While big league teams rarely push prospects past 100 in minor league games, Bauer's college pitching lines look like something from the 1970s. Only four times in 2011 has a pitcher hit the 130 pitch mark in the majors, with Tim Lincecum's 133-pitch effort on May 21 being the high. Bauer matched or exceeded the 133 mark in half of his 16 starts, including a stretch of six in a row, with a high of 140 in a 10-1 win over Cal-State Bakersfield when the game was already a guaranteed Bruins victory after an eight-run third. (It should be noted that Bauer pitched on six days' rest at UCLA, as opposed to the typical four days for big leaguers.)
Much has been made of Bauer's uniqueness as a prospect. At 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, he's not exactly the kind of traditional power body normally associated with such workloads, which has led to nearly unavoidable yet unfair comparisons to Tim Lincecum. Bauer is a disciple of the long-tossing regimen as well as many in-between start exercises designed to build and maintain arm strength, and while it's worked so far, the book is far from closed on the effectiveness of his routines. They've worked so far, but it hasn't been proven on a long-term basis, and the potential risk is just too great.
Bauer is good enough to compete for a rotation job next spring and give the Diamondbacks at least six years of star-level performances, if not more. That's 200 starts and 1,200-plus innings, with the always-necessary caveat that he remains injury-free. Yes, he just might be the next pitcher for whom workload really isn't an issue, like Halladay or Lincecum or Sabathia, but finding that out right now isn't worth risking the potential payoff down the road.
Make no mistake about it, Bauer is good. With a low-to-mid 90s fastball, knee-buckling curve and diving changeup, he has three plus pitches, and he'll even throw a solid slider on occasion to provide a different look to hitters. He throws strikes and maintains his stuff deep into games, and he was the best pitcher in college baseball this spring. "It's always worked for him and I think it always will," said one National League scout. "I think he'd be fine in the big leagues, and he won't be afraid."
There's little doubt that Trevor Bauer can handle big league hitters, but the length of Bauer's UCLA season and his heavy college workload should indicate to the Diamondbacks that while flags fly forever, it might not be worth risking the career of a potential ace. UCLA's baseball season began in February, with practices starting in January. That means that other than a six-week break between his final outing for the Bruins and his pro debut, Bauer has been pitching for eight months already, and to extend him into the playoffs could stretch that into the 10-month range, a risky endeavor for a 20-year-old.
Then, there is the workload itself. Bauer threw 136 2/3 innings for UCLA this year in just 16 starts. He averaged more than eight innings per outing and did not go the distance only six times, while throwing a full nine in each of his last nine starts. Including his brief professional career, he's already at 150 innings, which would be at or above the normal workload expectation from a more mortal prospect of the same age.
Bauer's pitch counts are even more troubling. While big league teams rarely push prospects past 100 in minor league games, Bauer's college pitching lines look like something from the 1970s. Only four times in 2011 has a pitcher hit the 130 pitch mark in the majors, with Tim Lincecum's 133-pitch effort on May 21 being the high. Bauer matched or exceeded the 133 mark in half of his 16 starts, including a stretch of six in a row, with a high of 140 in a 10-1 win over Cal-State Bakersfield when the game was already a guaranteed Bruins victory after an eight-run third. (It should be noted that Bauer pitched on six days' rest at UCLA, as opposed to the typical four days for big leaguers.)
Much has been made of Bauer's uniqueness as a prospect. At 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, he's not exactly the kind of traditional power body normally associated with such workloads, which has led to nearly unavoidable yet unfair comparisons to Tim Lincecum. Bauer is a disciple of the long-tossing regimen as well as many in-between start exercises designed to build and maintain arm strength, and while it's worked so far, the book is far from closed on the effectiveness of his routines. They've worked so far, but it hasn't been proven on a long-term basis, and the potential risk is just too great.
Bauer is good enough to compete for a rotation job next spring and give the Diamondbacks at least six years of star-level performances, if not more. That's 200 starts and 1,200-plus innings, with the always-necessary caveat that he remains injury-free. Yes, he just might be the next pitcher for whom workload really isn't an issue, like Halladay or Lincecum or Sabathia, but finding that out right now isn't worth risking the potential payoff down the road.
Phillies weakness?
Spoiler [+]
Thanks to a pitching staff that is even better than expected -- and expectations were high -- the Philadelphia Phillies are in the midst of an all-time great season. The Phils are currently on pace for 105 wins, which would tie them for ninth on the National League single-season wins list.
With a 7½-game lead in the NL East, the Phillies are in cruise control and can start looking ahead to the playoffs. While the Phils' offense is merely average (seventh in the NL in runs), their starting pitching, led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, makes them clear favorites to reach the World Series.
However, when examining the Phils' 2011 résumé, there is one aspect of their performance that raises questions about their postseason chances. To succeed in October, it would stand to reason that you need to be able to beat the best. However, much of the Phillies' gaudy record is based upon the fact that they have beaten up on the worst teams.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Phillies are 36-11 against teams with a winning percentage below .470. That .766 winning percentage against such clubs is by far the best in baseball. The New York Yankees, at 26-10 (.722), have the next best mark against sub.-470 teams. (I chose .470 as the cutoff because that is the winning percentage of teams that finish the season 10 games under .500.) In fact, if that .766 winning percentage holds, it would be the fourth-best mark against sub-.470 teams of the wild-card era, just ahead of the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who set the record for regular-season wins before flaming out in the ALCS.
But when playing teams on pace to finish at least 10 games over .500 (.530 winning percentage), the Phillies are just 16-16. That's the sixth-best record in baseball against such clubs, and worse than their NL East rivals, the Atlanta Braves. Who fares the best against .530-plus teams? That would be the Boston Red Sox, who are 24-15.
This seems like bad news for the Phillies, because one would think a potential World Series champ would have more success against the league's best. To see if there is any truth to that hypothesis, I went back to see how the last 10 World Series champs fared against the sub-.470 and .530-plus clubs. In theory, the World Series champs should consistently perform well against the good teams, and that would be an indicator of postseason success.
[h4]Past 10 World Series Champions[/h4]
[th=""]YEAR[/th][th=""]TEAM[/th][th=""]Win pct against sub-.470 teams[/th][th=""]Win pct against .530-plus teams[/th]
As it turns out, that's not really the case at all. The World Series champs, with the exception of the 2006 Cardinals, have all beat the snot out of the sub-.470 clubs, and even the Cards fared pretty well. The champs' performance against the .530-plus clubs, however, has varied widely. Just last year, the Giants had the best record in baseball against the sub-.470 teams (35-14), but their mark versus the .530-plus teams (20-27) ranked 15th.
It's not surprising that the World Series champs would beat up on the bad teams. The ability to do so consistently, in fact, is typically the sign of a strong team. However, you would expect World Series champs to fare well against good squads during the regular season, and that hasn't happened this century.
In fact, beating up on the weaklings seems to be a better indicator of postseason success. To wit: The 1998 New York Yankees, the team many consider the best in recent history, went 52-12 against sub-.470 teams, which is the best mark of the wild-card era.
If recent history is any guide, the Phils' remarkable record against poor squads says more about their title chances than their pedestrian record against good teams. So if you want nitpick something regarding their World Series hopes, you'll have to look elsewhere.
With a 7½-game lead in the NL East, the Phillies are in cruise control and can start looking ahead to the playoffs. While the Phils' offense is merely average (seventh in the NL in runs), their starting pitching, led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, makes them clear favorites to reach the World Series.
However, when examining the Phils' 2011 résumé, there is one aspect of their performance that raises questions about their postseason chances. To succeed in October, it would stand to reason that you need to be able to beat the best. However, much of the Phillies' gaudy record is based upon the fact that they have beaten up on the worst teams.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Phillies are 36-11 against teams with a winning percentage below .470. That .766 winning percentage against such clubs is by far the best in baseball. The New York Yankees, at 26-10 (.722), have the next best mark against sub.-470 teams. (I chose .470 as the cutoff because that is the winning percentage of teams that finish the season 10 games under .500.) In fact, if that .766 winning percentage holds, it would be the fourth-best mark against sub-.470 teams of the wild-card era, just ahead of the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who set the record for regular-season wins before flaming out in the ALCS.
But when playing teams on pace to finish at least 10 games over .500 (.530 winning percentage), the Phillies are just 16-16. That's the sixth-best record in baseball against such clubs, and worse than their NL East rivals, the Atlanta Braves. Who fares the best against .530-plus teams? That would be the Boston Red Sox, who are 24-15.
This seems like bad news for the Phillies, because one would think a potential World Series champ would have more success against the league's best. To see if there is any truth to that hypothesis, I went back to see how the last 10 World Series champs fared against the sub-.470 and .530-plus clubs. In theory, the World Series champs should consistently perform well against the good teams, and that would be an indicator of postseason success.
[h4]Past 10 World Series Champions[/h4]
| 2010 | Giants | .714 | .426 |
| 2009 | Yankees | .691 | .566 |
| 2008 | Phillies | .686 | .482 |
| 2007 | Red Sox | .676 | .517 |
| 2006 | Cardinals | .557 | .440 |
| 2005 | White Sox | .742 | .510 |
| 2004 | Red Sox | .698 | .567 |
| 2003 | Marlins | .638 | .484 |
| 2002 | Angels | .743 | .451 |
| 2001 | D-backs | .655 | .494 |
As it turns out, that's not really the case at all. The World Series champs, with the exception of the 2006 Cardinals, have all beat the snot out of the sub-.470 clubs, and even the Cards fared pretty well. The champs' performance against the .530-plus clubs, however, has varied widely. Just last year, the Giants had the best record in baseball against the sub-.470 teams (35-14), but their mark versus the .530-plus teams (20-27) ranked 15th.
It's not surprising that the World Series champs would beat up on the bad teams. The ability to do so consistently, in fact, is typically the sign of a strong team. However, you would expect World Series champs to fare well against good squads during the regular season, and that hasn't happened this century.
In fact, beating up on the weaklings seems to be a better indicator of postseason success. To wit: The 1998 New York Yankees, the team many consider the best in recent history, went 52-12 against sub-.470 teams, which is the best mark of the wild-card era.
If recent history is any guide, the Phils' remarkable record against poor squads says more about their title chances than their pedestrian record against good teams. So if you want nitpick something regarding their World Series hopes, you'll have to look elsewhere.
- 12,426
- 2,239
im pissed. Harper was coming to Portland on monday. Now work will be boring
But Cubs fire Hendry. You guys want Ed Wade?
But Cubs fire Hendry. You guys want Ed Wade?
- 12,426
- 2,239
im pissed. Harper was coming to Portland on monday. Now work will be boring
But Cubs fire Hendry. You guys want Ed Wade?
But Cubs fire Hendry. You guys want Ed Wade?
- 6,463
- 1,844
Who do you guys think is the best third basemen in baseball right now?
- 6,463
- 1,844
Who do you guys think is the best third basemen in baseball right now?
- 10,371
- 653
Adrian Beltre.
Todd Helton's at-bat in the 12th inning tonight was outrageous. 15 pitches before ripping a double to get the Rockies within one. 3-6 on his 38th birthday. .313, 14, 65, .395, .492. Love that guy.
Todd Helton's at-bat in the 12th inning tonight was outrageous. 15 pitches before ripping a double to get the Rockies within one. 3-6 on his 38th birthday. .313, 14, 65, .395, .492. Love that guy.
- 10,371
- 653
Adrian Beltre.
Todd Helton's at-bat in the 12th inning tonight was outrageous. 15 pitches before ripping a double to get the Rockies within one. 3-6 on his 38th birthday. .313, 14, 65, .395, .492. Love that guy.
Todd Helton's at-bat in the 12th inning tonight was outrageous. 15 pitches before ripping a double to get the Rockies within one. 3-6 on his 38th birthday. .313, 14, 65, .395, .492. Love that guy.
- 21,151
- 37
Have I mentioned how much I despise Kevin Gregg?
Least favorite Oriole EVER....
Least favorite Oriole EVER....
- Status
