Hollinger: As NBA free agency opens, what I’m hearing (and what teams’ actions are saying)
Actions, not words, are often the greatest tip-off to what might happen in free agency, and certainly we’ve seen a few signs of that already, most notably in the trade that sent Josh Richardson from Dallas to Boston and Miami’s move to pick up Goran Dragic’s option.
Boston’s trade for Richardson sure looked like the type of move a team would make if it knew that Evan Fournier wasn’t coming back. The Celtics instead landed a replacement wing into their Gordon Hayward trade exception – Richardson would only fit if the deal was done by Aug. 2 – and conveniently dropped just below the luxury tax line after a separate trade sent out Tristan Thompson. Boston isn’t necessarily finished (look for Kris Dunn to move on, for instance), but Fournier’s tenure there probably is done.
Dallas’s move to trade Richardson’s $11 million salary, meanwhile, while still picking up the $4 million player option on Willie Cauley-Stein, looked an awful lot like the type of move a team makes when it knows exactly what dollar figure it needs to get to for a certain player or players.
Finally, the Heat picking up a $19.4 million option for The Dragon likely sets them up to executive a sign-and-trade for Kyle Lowry (the Heat could pay him $87 million over three years in a sign-and-trade for Dragic and Precious Achiuwa, for instance), or to execute a swap for another player contract if they can’t succeed with Plan A.
Let’s go back to the Mavs for a minute, who now start free agency with $32 million in cap space. That’s not enough to sign Kawhi Leonard, but should be plenty for Plan B. Again, actions and not words. We heard chatter about the Mavs being a legitimate player for Leonard earlier in the summer, but that talk has died down of late. The Clippers will maintain an appropriate level of paranoia until the ink dries on the contract. Trust me on this, having been through it: your own players’ free agency is absolutely nerve-wracking, even when the odds are in your favor. But the expectation is that Leonard will be back in L.A.
As for Dallas, if that $32 million can’t nab Lowry, it should be more than enough to retain Tim Hardaway, Jr. and nab at least one other high-profile free agent in a deep point guard crop. The Mavs are also interested in Mike Conley (whom they tried to wrest from us in Memphis five years ago), but indications are that he will return to Utah.
The other superstar free agent, Phoenix’s Chris Paul, is widely expected to return to the Suns after earlier chatter that the Pelicans would be in hot pursuit. That talk seems to have faded, likely because Phoenix stepped up with a more serious package. (I’ve heard the initial offer was rather underwhelming; the Suns were allowed to negotiate directly with Paul since he was under contract and has a player option.).
Paul declined his $44 million player option and instead would seem to be signing a new deal in Phoenix; nobody will be surprised if the total package nears or exceeds $100 million. Note also that the Suns are the one team that can pay Paul over four years rather than three, due to the league’s over-38 rule.
If Paul stays put, that moves the main battlefront of free agency to the pursuit of Lowry. Dallas, New Orleans and Miami are the main contenders and the likely tie-breaker is how much each franchise is willing to guarantee on a third year of the contract for the 35-year-old. (Note that nobody except Toronto can sign him to a four-year deal, due to the league’s over-38 rule). As noted above, the Heat are operating like they know something other people don’t on this; let’s see how this plays out.
The Pelicans are desperate to win, and now. The first two years of Zion Williamson in the Big Easy have been a dud on that front, with zero playoff games to show for all the promise of Big Z and Brandon Ingram. Lowry’s pedigree moves that needle. The backup plans aren’t all that sexy for the Pels. They’re all in on Lowry. Two of Dallas, Miami or New Orleans will lose.
The Lowry bone is connected to a lot of other bones in this game of point guard hokey-pokey, and in particular to that of Lonzo Ball. The Pelicans would need to renounce Ball or sign-and-trade him for assets if they win the Lowry sweepstakes, but if the Pels don’t prevail, then it may behoove them to match offer sheets on Ball.
The team widely expected to drop that offer sheet is Chicago, which can generate enough room to sign Ball to a four-year, $80 million deal by waiving and stretching the final year of Al-Farouq Aminu’s contract ($10 million). Here’s the rub: Would Chicago still go through the trouble of doing this if it knew the Pelicans are likely to match? Or is this strategy only contingent on New Orleans adding Lowry?
Meanwhile, Miami’s move to pick up Dragic’s $19.4 million team option nuked its cap space but puts the Heat in prime position to execute a sign-and-trade, or just regular ol’ trades, to bring in another big name. One thing that seems more clear – league sources expect the price on Duncan Robinson to land in the $18 million a year range, and that the Heat will likely match offers on the restricted free agent at this price point.
The other move that has been hotly rumored of late is DeMar DeRozan going to Miami for their full MLE, which they could likely just squeeze under the luxury tax apron along with Lowry and Robinson. (You can forget the rumors that DeRozan would take the taxpayer midlevel just to play for the Lakers.) Keeping Kendrick Nunn, on the other hand, seems hugely unlikely. The Heat will be hard-capped on any sign-and-trade and, in any event, would go deep in the tax if it re-signed him at his market value and made the moves above. He is effectively an unrestricted free agent at this point.
The next domino is probably Brooklyn’s Spencer Dinwiddie, whom the Nets could put into a sign-and-trade deal with another team – such as the Wizards – if DeAndre Jordan could be part of the deal. In Washington’s case that’s actually possible, as a Dinwiddie trade that paid him in the $18 million a year range on a three-year deal and included Jordan could be executed for Kyle Kuzma … if, and only if, the Wizards can stuff it into the already-completed, but not official ’til Aug. 6, four-team Russell Westbrook trade.
One other potential wrinkle on that swap: Washington could instead pursue Alex Caruso and stuff him into the deal as part of a sign-and-trade that generates a decent-sized trade exception for L.A. At least one source thinks Caruso is in the Wizards’ sights.
As for the Dinwiddie-Washington talk, one league source said it was pure vapor, while another insisted it was real but only if the Nets could dump Jordan (owed two years and nearly $20 million). Brooklyn would likely frown heavily on a Kuzma-Dinwiddie swap straight up, however, as Kuzma would cost the Nets $60 million this year once Brooklyn’s jaw-dropping luxury tax payments factor in.
All the moving parts to a potential Dinwiddie deal in Washington may necessitate the Wizards looking elsewhere. They will not start the season with the soon-to-be-acquired Aaron Holiday next to Bradley Beal. There’s some hum that the Wizards might have interest in Malcolm Brogdon as well.
Speaking of which, the Pacers are a dark horse in the Lonzo Ball sweepstakes if the Pelicans miss out on Lowry, as they could tempt New Orleans with a Brogdon-Ball swap. Brogdon’s name has bubbled up at other points in the last few weeks as well; keep an eye on this.
Another palatable option might be Dinwiddie signing with Oklahoma City (I’ve heard two years, $40 million thrown around). The Nets could then pay OKC with a draft pick to make it a sign-and-trade with a partial third year, which would give the Nets a $20 million trade exception. One thing is clear: Brooklyn will try to get something for Dinwiddie somehow.
Going back to Chicago, a possible backup plan for the Bulls is a reunion with Derrick Rose at $12 million a year or so, a number they can reach without stretching anyone. Alternatively, Chicago coach Billy Donovan might also pursue a reunion with Dennis Schröder, who could find himself squeezed in a deep point guard market.
The Spurs also have a ton of cap room and are going to be a player in this market one way or another, but as typical with San Antonio, nobody has heard much. The most prominent target I’ve heard thus far is … Daniel Theis? Yes, really.
Finally, going back to the top, there’s Fournier and Boston. The Knicks reportedly have swooped in and are ready to make an offer for him that’s too rich for Boston’s blood, necessitating the Richardson deal. New York has also been linked to player trades – including one for Orlando’s Terrence Ross. These aren’t mutually exclusive since New York has the cap room to execute a multitude of moves. One other maneuver to keep an eye on: A “renegotiate-and-extend” with center Mitchell Robinson.
Some other things I’m hearing:
- Sources say T.J. McConnell is likely staying in Indiana for, at or slightly above, the non-taxpayer MLE. But a more interesting question is if the Pacers can keep Doug McDermott, too. Sources say they are trying, but he may have offers for the MLE or above. While the Pacers have Bird Rights to pay him, they would need to move a contract (such as Jeremy Lamb’s expiring $10 million deal), to pay McDermott and stay below the tax line.
- Indiana will also be in the market for a third point guard on a minimum deal. Lou Williams could have some traction here.
- If Richaun Holmes can’t find a payday from Toronto — a likely outcome if the Raptors take Dragic in a sign-and-trade — he may end up squeezed in this market. That could see him returning to Sacramento on an “Early Bird” deal for $11 million; such a deal could end up being a two-year deal with a player option that would let him test the market again next year.
- Memphis continues shopping around the margins but the Grizzlies have 14 contracts for next season, or 15 if late first-round pick Santi Aldama isn’t stashed. The Grizzlies’ activity is likely to be more of opportunism if somebody wants to overpay for one of their role players.
- Kelly Olynyk is likely to have interest from Detroit, which needs another big after trading Mason Plumlee and could use his shooting. The key here is that the Pistons have enough cap room to pay him above the MLE, his likely price target from several other suitors. The Pistons also may bring back veteran Cory Joseph, even though they just waived him, as his price on a new deal will be significantly less than the contract they just expunged.
- Two names you don’t hear much about right now are Will Barton and Norman Powell. Although both are unrestricted free agents, teams seem to be operating with the idea that Barton (Denver) and Powell (Portland) are likely to return to their current teams.
- Chicago’s Lauri Markkanen will be an interesting “second wave” free agent after teams miss out on their primary targets. Chicago can do a sign-and-trade with him, in theory, but likely can’t take any money back if the Bulls sign a point guard with their cap space.
- Minnesota is surely one possibility for Markkanen, and for any other ambulatory power forward. The T’Wolves have little room below the luxury tax line and will be looking at trades and sign-and-trades with some of their less desirable contracts and a future pick. They had eyes for Kuzma before the Lakers sent him to Washington, and could jump back in if he’s available again. Another possible name for the Wolves: Danilo Gallinari.
- Gary Trent Jr.’s price is expected to land in the $15 million to $18 million a year range on a multiyear deal, with Toronto (which has matching rights) favored to retain his services one way or another.
@ Westbrook calling Kawhi in 2019 to team up, Kawhi not returning his call and instead calling PG.
