2024 NBA Draft Thread - the hawks might be on the clock

pmatic said:


2021 NBA draft: A high lottery pick hiding in Turkey? Scouting Alperen Sengun and other international players to know

My hottest take on the 2021 NBA draft is that there is a high lottery pick hiding more or less in plain sight on the other side of the globe.

My second hottest take is that there might be four other internationals who aren’t that far behind. It’s a good overseas class, and it isn’t getting nearly enough attention.

Let’s start at the top. Most evaluators see this as a five-player draft, after which we start getting into a lot of question marks. The same five names show up at the top of most boards: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Evan Mobley, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga.

And then, things get iffy. Everybody has another player or two they like at Nos. 6 and 7, but it’s never the same one. Questions only deepen as you go into the back half of the lottery, especially if you’re just focused on the NCAA pool.

Fortunately, we have a strong international group in this lottery. Quite strong, actually. Five international players have established themselves as first-round talents, and for reasons on which I’ll elaborate in a minute, this isn’t the pie-in-the-sky, projecting-way-ahead “first-round” status that has tripped up teams with internationals in the past.

If anything, the hype machine on overseas players has ground to a halt, and for good reason: Nobody can see them!

As hard as it’s been to scout American college players this year, the obstacles thrown up to seeing overseas talent have been even more substantial. Remember, Europe isn’t some monolith like the U.S.; with every individual country more or less sealing its borders and locking down to varying degrees internally, even Europe-based scouts have had trouble getting into arenas this season.

Scouts and execs also normally enter the season with some kind of “book” on the top internationals from U-17 tournaments and stateside events like the Hoop Summit, and to some degree, they’re relying on that knowledge bank this year. (Related story: Some sweat that the 2022 draft will be more challenging since that knowledge bank won’t exist.)

Yes, they still have the tape from the overseas games, but it’s tough to get a sense of size and speed from players you haven’t seen in person. Also, some of the quality on this video is not exactly HBO-level production value.

With staffs vaccinated and some borders opening, that may change to a small extent in May. Some execs are pondering trips to places such as Turkey and Serbia that will allow overseas visitors and admit fans to arenas, but even if they go, it’s a much smaller scope than a typical overseas scouting trip. Also, some countries with high-level prospects, such as Australia and Spain, remain hermetically sealed. Teams also are hopeful that workouts and the NBA Draft Combine will let them see these internationals in person.

Nonetheless, there will be a draft this July, and teams have to do their evaluating the best they can. And from my distant view, it appears they have some pretty good players to chew over.

Here’s where analytics can help, at least to a point. People act like translating European performance is some big mystery, but in fact, history tells us it’s fairly projectable. Players who can play regularly in a good league by the time they’re 20 nearly always make it as something in the NBA, which is why I feel pretty good about five international players in this draft.

In contrast, virtually all the draft busts on internationals have been speculative plays on overseas players with either limited track records or poor production in the highest-level leagues. This is where you find your Benders and Tskitishvilis.

And players who are dominant as teenagers? They’re not failing, even if they aren’t drafted that highly. Luka Doncic is the most prominent example, of course, but let’s not get carried away by a one-of-a-kind. In this instance, some more salient comparables are Jusuf Nurkic (drafted 16th), Jonas Valanciunas (fifth), Ricky Rubio (fifth), Zaza Pachulia (42nd), Nikola Mirotic (23rd) and Danilo Gallinari (sixth).

In terms of dominating a high-level overseas league at a young age, that’s the list from this century.

And we have one player to add to it: Alperen Sengun, who plays center for Besiktas in the Turkish League.

Sengun’s emergence has been more or less out of the blue, as he wasn’t on anybody’s must-see list entering the season. At first, he does not pass the eye test as a 6-foot-10 center without freakish athleticism, and his defense in switches could certainly use some improvement. Nonetheless, he is destroying the Turkish League — probably the second-best domestic league in Europe at this point — as an 18-year-old.

He is second in the league in scoring, rebounding and blocks. Nobody has had a PER above 30 in this league for the last decade (that’s as far back as the stats I’ve found go); Sengun’s is at a stratospheric 32.9, which needless to say leads the league by a wide margin.

Did I mention he’s 18?

If he fails with this kind of track record in a good overseas league, he’ll be the first of his kind.

What immediately jumps out about Sengun is how good and instinctive he is on the low block. He has a solid frame, good short-range quickness, great hands and Kevin McHale-esque footwork on pivots and drop steps in the post. He can finish with either hand and has a veteran’s knack for feeling forearm pressure from an opponent and spinning out of it. He also reads help defense well and passes adroitly out of it. Nit-pickers will point out his habit of hitting away a post defender’s arm, which is an automatic offensive foul in the NBA, but that’s an easy correction.

Just watch some of this stuff. First, let’s start with the McHale sequences on the block. The first move shows him rope-a-doping a defender by keeping his balance and pirouetting through multiple pivots until he has a layup. The second one is a fairly unique move that Sengun goes to quite a bit, where he shot fakes with the right, spins back to the left and shoots with his left hand:

Those are fun, but my favorite Sengun clips are when he channels his inner Nikola Jokic and makes plays for other people. The first one of these is him reading that the opponent will double because he has a switch with a guard. He waits for it, throws a lookaway pass to an open 3-point shooter and then mauls three opponents on the glass for the offensive board.

If you prefer transition, here’s some more entertainment. The first of these shows his ball skills, and he leads the break and sets up a kickout 3 without committing an offensive foul. The second one is pure joy, as he turns a transition into a post-up into an around-the-back pass to a cutter.

So let’s talk about the downside here: The defense isn’t great. Sengun is undersized for a five at 6-10 and at this point isn’t comfortable defending in space. He has some good instincts for shot-blocking around the basket, actually, with a 5.6 percent block rate.

However, he really gets in trouble when he has to guard the perimeter. Partly this is because he’s never been asked to before this season, and he still plays almost exclusively drop coverages.

Going through his tape, I don’t think his feet are that awful per se, which gives me some hope that this is fixable. As for his technique …. umm, yeah. Sengun tends to lunge out at dribblers and get caught way out over his skis; at that point, he’s toast.

Some look at this and say “this is why he shouldn’t be a first-round pick.” For me, it’s more like “This is why he shouldn’t go in the top three.” Sengun isn’t a high-wire rim protector, and the 18-year-old version of him is toast on switches. That said, his current role as an unswitchable, drop-coverage big isn’t necessarily emblazoned in stone either. His feet aren’t tragic, and his instincts are tremendous.

Meanwhile, another concern about him I think is much ado about nothing: his shooting. Scouts see him as a traditional big because he never has to venture beyond the 3-point line, but Sengun could easily adapt his game to play on the outside. He can handle the ball, pass and make decisions, and he shoots 80 percent from the line.

This is not the stroke of somebody who won’t shoot 3s in his mid-20s:

Overall then, Sengun profiles as a massively productive offensive player and rebounder who comes attached with some size and defense concerns.

Remind you of anybody? For me, it’s Kevin Love, another player who had awesome production as a teenager but had scouts questioning his defensive role and NBA sustainability even while he crushed opponents as a teen and even into his early years in Minnesota. Love never became a plus defender, or anything close to it, but he turned into an All-Star anyway. Maybe a Love-type talent shouldn’t be a top-five pick in this draft, and maybe I’m reaching comparing him to Love.

Nonetheless, I think Sengun should be in play starting at No. 6. I realize I’m outlier high on here compared to the masses, but his production suggests he’s far less risky a choice than many imagine, and one that comes with some pretty huge offensive upside.

Four more players to watch in the first round
In addition to Sengun, four other players have done enough overseas to warrant first-round attention, and two of them could end up in the lottery.

Again, let’s back up before we go forward. Players who are rotation-caliber European league players as teenagers have a very strong record of eventual NBA success, even if they don’t destroy the league Sengun-style. (Actually, one of them might be the NBA MVP this year.) It’s not quite an ironclad guarantee of success, but it’s a pretty strong omen. Plus, these players seem like especially strong bets when you get into the late teens and 20s in the draft, a point where the failure rate on college players skyrockets.

Let’s talk about them.

Josh Giddey, PG/SF, Adelaide 36ers

Australia’s league is getting better, but it’s still not quite on par with some of the top leagues in Europe. Fortunately, LaMelo Ball and RJ Hampton (and, um, Terrance Ferguson) offer us some kind of production barometer for what we might want to see from Giddey to place him in the top 20 on a draft board. Scouts are familiar with him, too, from his February 2020 appearance at the league’s Basketball Without Borders camp in Chicago — which is good, since they can’t get to Australia to see him now.

In a nutshell, I’d say he’s comfortably cleared the bar. But let’s start with the bad news: Giddey is fairly slow, doesn’t shoot particularly well and isn’t the most active or impactful defender, and those are concerns. Fixing his shot, a mostly set release with his elbow out, is probably the most paramount concern: Giddey is at 31.3 percent from 3 and 65.0 percent from the line. He also rarely draws fouls, something he could probably do more of as he fills out.

But as a 6-8 on-ball initiator, it may not matter much. Giddey is an elite passer who slips one-handed dishes with either hand, and while he can be extremely upright in his dribble, he gets low once he’s on the move and is able to protect the ball with surprising strength. With the size to see over the defense, he can take advantage of any opening once he’s gained an advantage, like this:

Additionally, he’s made steady improvement over the course of the season, including a triple-double in his most recent outing. For the year his 13.4-7.2-7.1 triple crown stats are pretty impressive, especially considering that overseas leagues are much tighter handing out assists than NBA scorekeepers. And you’ll notice those rebounding numbers: For a skinny perimeter player, a 12.1 percent rebound rate is quite impressive.

He’s doing this at just 18 and won’t turn 19 till October. He’s a full year younger than likely top pick Cunningham, for example, and eight months younger than Hampton was when he played in Oz a year ago.

Giddey’s production at his age provides proof of concept for his floor, but the other reason Giddey is a likely lotto pick is the scarcity of his skill set. Every team is looking for big playmaking wings, and every team that has one is looking for another. Even if he hits as a middling version of this archetype with below-average defense, that likely is still pretty valuable at the NBA level. The background on him is strong too, with opponents impressed with his competitiveness and court sense.

He has some real weaknesses, and I worry the hype on Giddey might getting a little ahead of itself, but again, bet on the production level at this age. Overall, I’m comfortable with him as a late lottery pick.

Usman Garuba, PF/C Real Madrid

Garuba is almost the antithesis of the first two players in that his defense is where most of the value lies. Some saw him as a top-10 pick heading into the season, but that has cooled off due to worries about his offensive game fitting in.

Garuba has played extensively at center overseas, but I wonder if his best NBA position is the four. While the best European leagues tend to play bigger lineups than even the NBA, Garuba is just 6-8, 220 pounds, and his mobility on the defensive end is his main advantage. He’s an NBA athlete but not a freak, and at his size, he’s neither a pure rim protector (3.4 percent block rate) nor an awesome rebounder (16.5 percent rebound rate).

Overall, I think he has a better chance of being OG Anunoby than he does of being Clint Capela. Garuba rarely makes defensive mistakes even at his young age (although he leaves his feet a bit much) and books up and down the court in transition. More importantly, he has some real dexterity as a perimeter defender that will make him a coveted on-ball defender in NBA schemes.

Watch here, for instance, as they leave him on an island against Nikola Mirotic — probably the best player not currently in the NBA — and he slides his feet to stop the drive before knocking the ball off Mirotic’s leg for a turnover.

Garuba’s shot is still coming around, but he’s become increasingly comfortable launching set shot 3s from the corner; these weren’t in his bag until recently, but he’s at 30.5 percent from 3 this year. Baby steps.

However, he does show some interesting grab-and-go ability during the rare times he’s allowed to do much as a ballhandler. Here, he shows off his straight-line speed, grabbing a board and going coast-to-coast for a dunk against FC Barcelona. The handle gets wobbly after the crossover, but he is able to protect the ball at the end from noted ball-pilferer Nick Calathes:

The other reason I don’t see a future for Garuba as a five except in small-ball situations is that he isn’t super explosive around the rim. Even in a low-usage “dunks and layups” type role, he shoots 59.8 percent on 2s, which is good but hardly exceptional for a frontcourt prospect. Here, for instance, he tries to power up after a paint catch, and his shot is sent back by Brandon Davies, who played the four in the NBA:

Overall, Garuba’s defensive ceiling and track record at his age warrant a first-round selection, but the lack of offensive upside may keep him out of the lottery. With a flimsy group in the 11 to 20 range right now on the NCAA side, I can argue strongly for Garuba someplace in the teens.

Roko Prkacin, PF, Cibona Zagreb

Prkacin competes in the Adriatic League (the not-quite-domestic league that includes teams from six of the seven countries of the former Yugoslavia), which is a half-notch below some of the others on this list. The Adriatic yielded swarms of talent mid-decade (Jusuf Nurkic, Dario Saric, Nikola Jokic, Bogdan Bogdanovic and 2015 first-rounder Nikola Milutinov were playing in this league as teenagers at the same time in 2014) but hasn’t quite kept up with the other top-flight domestic leagues in recent years. However, it’s still a competitive league — not on par with Spain, Turkey or Russia but capable of hanging with the rest.

Prkacin is interesting because he’s the prototype of a big wing with perimeter skills. He looks every bit of 6-9 on tape, with square shoulders and long-ish arms (side note: teams are craving height and weight measurements on the internationals and are hoping to get them at the combine). He a full-time perimeter player, but his rebound rate (17.2 percent) in ABA games is pretty impressive.

Like Giddey, Prkacin has a late birthdate (November 2002) that will make him one of the youngest players in the draft, if not the absolute youngest.

Size it all up, and he screams of an NBA four, especially if he can slightly boost his skill level from its current stats. Prkacin’s jumper isn’t what you’d call pure; he gets a nice arc, but off the dribble, he can jackknife his legs, and from a standstill, everything is a little awkward from the wide stance on up:

He’s made 35.2 percent from 3 and 65.0 percent from the line this season, and that 3-point mark is outlier good relative to his previous career totals. (I say “career”; he’s 18 but has been playing at Cibona since he was 16, plus we have stats from some youth tournaments and other events going back a bit for overseas players.)

Prkacin also shows some facility as a passer and shot creator. He is comfortable attacking off the dribble and has a knack for short runners and floaters in the paint. Watch here as he somehow turns a post-up into a floater.

Where the real question comes is at the defensive end. Right now he’s just OK, with iffy reactions on the weak side and some discomfort in switching situations abasing guards, but he has the size, length and mobility profile to eventually be much better. Like, at some point he’ll figure out how to show on this pick-and-roll and not end up with his butt facing the dribbler:

Overall, he’s had an impressive season on a weak team, and while he could maybe use one more year of seasoning overseas, you could say the same thing about most of the players who will be picked between 10 and 20 this year. I’m pretty impressed with Prkacin as an NBA four and think the draft world is sleeping on him a bit; he’ll end up in the top 20 on my final board for sure and could have a case to land higher.

Rokas Jokubaitis, PG/SG Zalgiris

Of the five international players here, Jokubaitis has the weakest case as a first-rounder; he’s a bit older than the others and hasn’t been quite as productive. Also, the draft is always about upside at some level, and Jokubaitis’ athletic limitations put a pretty firm ceiling on him.

Let’s start with the good news: He established himself as a rotation player as a teenager in a high-level European team, the Lithuanian squad Zalgiris. While his numbers are a bit down from a year ago, in 31 EuroLeague games, he’s posted a 10.6 PER, shot decently and not looked overmatched running pick-and-roll. He turned 20 in November and is playing over 20 minutes a game on a solid team (17-17) in the highest division of European basketball; this is much more impressive than averaging 12 points a game in the SEC.

The bad news on Jokubaitis is that his athletic limitations are a greater question mark than for the other players listed above. At 6-4, he’s going to be undersized at the two, and despite his knack for running pick-and-roll, I’m not sure he has the handle or speed to play the one. Additionally, his athletic indicators are all really poor — Jokubaitis has a very low steal rate, rebounds like a point guard and has not blocked a single shot in 41 EuroLeague games over the past two seasons.

You might overlook this if he was a crazy flamethrower from deep, but his shot has been inconsistent thus far. While it doesn’t look broken, he’s made 32.7 percent of his 3s across all competitions over the past three seasons, and 74.6 percent from the line. He’ll probably be an OKish shooter, but with his size/athleticism profile, that may not be enough.

What Jokubaitis can do is run pick-and-roll, especially going left, and with the size, leftiness and overall craft, he at times reminds you of Beno Udrih.

Overall, that probably isn’t enough to get him in the top 30 names on every team’s board, and since he doesn’t have a crazy high ceiling, I get it.

But I do think he still has a case as a first-rounder and could be especially useful for a team picking in the 20s who wants him to develop overseas another year before bringing him over. For instance, Minnesota drafted Leandro Bolmaro 23rd a year ago in similar circumstances, and Jokubaitis’ resume at this point is much stronger than Bolmaro’s was a year ago.
Can't embed the vids in the article.
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pmatic said:
This guy's draft hype is building up. :lol:

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Not sure what to make of him. Kinda tough to argue these few paragraphs from Hollinger's article though...

Here’s where analytics can help, at least to a point. People act like translating European performance is some big mystery, but in fact, history tells us it’s fairly projectable. Players who can play regularly in a good league by the time they’re 20 nearly always make it as something in the NBA, which is why I feel pretty good about five international players in this draft.

In contrast, virtually all the draft busts on internationals have been speculative plays on overseas players with either limited track records or poor production in the highest-level leagues. This is where you find your Benders and Tskitishvilis.

And players who are dominant as teenagers? They’re not failing, even if they aren’t drafted that highly. Luka Doncic is the most prominent example, of course, but let’s not get carried away by a one-of-a-kind. In this instance, some more salient comparables are Jusuf Nurkic (drafted 16th), Jonas Valanciunas (fifth), Ricky Rubio (fifth), Zaza Pachulia (42nd), Nikola Mirotic (23rd) and Danilo Gallinari (sixth).
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It's a bit of an odd fit for Deni with both Russ and Beal there. They are both such high usage ball handlers that Deni is rarely going to get the opportunity to show off his playmaking chops it seems. Jumper needs to improve, but we already knew that when he was drafted.

Hopefully his injury doesn't derail him too much.
 


2021 NBA draft: How one year in the NBL turned Australia's Josh Giddey into a potential lottery pick

Whether it's superstars like Luka Doncic and LeBron James, an up-and-comer like LaMelo Ball or successful vets like Khris Middleton and Joe Ingles, 6-foot-8 playmakers are NBA gold. They come in all different shapes, with varying levels of success, but the emergence of that prototype is a big reason a prospect such as Cade Cunningham is so highly coveted.

While the 2021 NBA draft has been lauded for its incredible star power toward the top, there's a jumbo playmaker projected outside the top five who fits the modern NBA perfectly. Meet 6-foot-8 Australian point guard Josh Giddey, a potential top-10 pick who just completed a record-breaking season in the Australian NBL for the Adelaide 36ers.

With three triple-doubles in his past six games, Giddey is now averaging 13.8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.4 assists per 40 minutes through 27 games, rarefied stats for an 18-year-old prospect at any level of professional basketball. Giddey recently joined Ball as the only 18-year-olds in NBL history to record back-to-back triple-doubles, while reminding some NBA evaluators of fellow Aussie great Ingles.

"I heard him say in an interview that he compares himself to me a little bit, and I was like, dude, you're crazy, because you're so much f---ing better than I was at that age," Ingles told ESPN with a laugh.

Giddey isn't a carbon copy of Ingles. Nor is he expected to follow in Ball's path by going in the top three and posting a Rookie of the Year-type season. Still, Giddey has the clear attention of NBA scouts and is the favorite to be the first international prospect drafted in 2021. How did Giddey get to this point? Are the Ingles comps underselling his NBA outlook? What type of player can he be at the next level?

Meet Josh Giddey

As Giddey would be the first to tell you, 12 months ago he was just hoping to crack an NBL rotation. Now, he sits at No. 13 in our top 100 with the draft buzz growing as he closes out a stellar rookie campaign.

"It's been surreal," he said of his rapid ascension. "It still hasn't really processed with me."

Giddey was raised in a basketball household. His father, Warrick, played more than 400 games in the NBL, serving mostly as a utility big man. His mother, Kim, played professionally. His older sister plays at Oral Roberts. Both of his younger sisters play in the Melbourne youth program, following in his footsteps. Despite all of his recent success, Giddey was cut from his "state" or " junior" teams as a teenager. It wasn't until Basketball Without Borders Asia in India in 2018 that he really introduced himself to scouts at the NBA Academy program. Measuring 6-foot-4½ and weighing 171 pounds at the time, Giddey impressed with his passing and feel for the game but looked far from a future NBA lottery pick.

"He made the All-Star team, but I don't think any of our coaches or staff came away saying, OK, this guy's going to be a first-round draft pick," said Chris Ebersole, NBA senior director of International Basketball Operations.

Giddey eventually accepted a scholarship to the NBA Global Academy and first caught our eye in April 2019 in Minneapolis at a Final Four showcase event. I wrote at the time: "Has real game. Wonder how he'll look against athletes but using his size to get to the rim at this level. Slow but get to his spots. I'm a fan."

Since then, Giddey has impressed at various events, including the Tarkanian Classic in Las Vegas and the Basketball Without Borders Global Camp in Chicago during All-Star weekend. Although no one was quite sure of his NBA upside, staffers always raved about his against-the-grain style and unselfish nature. Even so, Giddey seemed headed to the NCAA, following Aussie greats before him such as Andrew Bogut, Ben Simmons and Josh Green. The general consensus was that Giddey needed a few years at the college ranks before cementing himself on the NBA radar. Even as recently as February 2020 at BWB Chicago, Giddey wasn't viewed as a surefire NBA player.

The camp featured projected 2021 second-rounders such as Ariel Hukporti and Juhann Begarin and projected 2022 first-rounder Jean Montero, yet Giddey was hardly the best prospect. After BWB, Jonathan Givony wrote: "Giddey showed both sides of the coin in Chicago, impressing NBA scouts with his feel and creativity while also confirming lingering questions about his physical profile and upside. ... But he certainly has the ambidexterity, vision and creativity to make it in today's NBA."

Joe Ingles 2.0?

Back in 2006, a then-17-year-old Ingles went for 29 points in his first ever NBL game with the South Dragons. Despite a strong NBL career from 2006 to 2009, it wasn't until Ingles demonstrated his ability to produce at the highest levels in Europe -- Barcelona and Maccabi Tel Aviv -- that he was able to latch on in the NBA as a free agent at the age of 27.

"A lot of my talent was that I was OK and good at a lot of things but I wasn't great at anything," Ingles said. "It wasn't like, this team needs to bring me over because I'm an elite 3-point shooter or an elite defender or a playmaker."

Whereas Ingles didn't have one elite skill to bring to the NBA floor as an 18-year-old, Giddey is already arguably the best passer in the 2021 draft class, which should translate from day one in the NBA. Watching film with him over Zoom, he sees everything a step ahead. Although not always as flashy as a Ball or Auburn standout Sharife Cooper, Giddey is unselfish with his hit-aheads.

"It's almost kind of like what people saw with LaMelo in the NBL like, kicking the ball ahead regardless of who it was," Ingles said of Giddey. "If it was the right play to make, he was making it."

Giddey isn't a knockdown shooter or the most dynamic shot-creator, but he already has an NBA superpower to offer with his tremendous court vision and ability to manage the game. He can deliver pinpoint passes with either hand. He sees over the top of the defense with soccer-style passes to the roll man or weakside corner. He talks about manipulating the weakside defense with his eyes. He mentions the value of having an aggressive roll man to open up his shooters.

While Giddey's 29.2% 3-point shooting might not remind people of the Joe Ingles who is leading the NBA in true shooting percentage, Ingles wasn't always a knockdown shooter, making a Giddey-like 31.8% of his 3s as an NBL rookie 15 years ago.

"Joe was way more like Josh than what he might remember," said Marty Clarke, the NBA's Global Academy technical director and a former Saint Mary's College assistant. Clarke also served as the head coach of the Australian Institute of Sport and played a key role in the development of Ingles, Bogut, Patty Mills, Aron Baynes and Matthew Dellavedova.

"Joe wasn't a great shooter back then. Now, he's a driller. It's lights out. I think a lot of people get to a level and think they're done. That's where Joe is always working for the next thing, 'What's my next edge?' And I think Josh will be exactly the same."

After Ingles sent him a congratulatory text when he signed in the NBL, Giddey began to reach out with questions about film study or decision-making in certain situations. Ingles will fire up Adelaide games at 3 a.m. after a long NBA road trip to see how Giddey -- and the rest of the young Australian prospects -- are progressing. Although Ingles never had this type of draft buzz as an 18-year-old and Giddey won't have to work his way through the EuroLeague to get onto an NBA floor, as 6-foot-8 Aussie playmakers with an elite feel for the game and an understated competitive drive, the comparison is more than warranted.

"We both aren't explosive athletes, but we kind of get by on IQ and feel for the game," said Giddey, who has embraced the comparison. "Joe's just such a smart player. He sees the game before it actually unfolds. His ability to kind of pick teams apart and hit the right guy at the right time is really cool. Joe's definitely someone I watch and kind of take parts out of his game and try to put them into mine."

Walking LaMelo's path

With Ball, R.J. Hampton and Jae'Sean Tate all having varying degrees of success in the NBA, teams are getting a better handle on just how NBL production translates to the next level, as there's far more data than when prospects like Terrance Ferguson and even Brian Bowen played Down Under. Ball is the most recent case study. While he is more efficient in the NBA than he was in Australia, Ball's per-40 minute numbers with the Charlotte Hornets are almost identical to his per-40 minutes in 12 games with the Illawarra Hawks.

"He shocked everyone with what he did here," Giddey said of Ball. "It was amazing to watch. It's also cool to see the translation he's made from playing in the NBL to then going to the NBA and still being able to have the same impact that he had here. Some of the passes that he makes, you can't even see it coming. He's a really special talent, and to see he's come through the same pathway as me, it's really cool to watch."

The same could be said for Hampton, who averaged 17.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per 40 with the New Zealand Breakers through 15 games and who is now averaging 17.8-7.5-4.1 per 40 in 25 games with the Orlando Magic. Role and opportunity are clear factors here, and Tate's NBL numbers understandably far surpass his production with the Houston Rockets. But there's becoming a comfort level with evaluating prospects from the NBL because of the growing track record, along with the fact that teams are familiar with names like Bryce Cotton, Casper Ware, Jock Landale and Isaac Humphries. As ESPN writer Kevin Pelton told me in an email, "The results from Ball/Hampton/Tate should upgrade what we think about the NBL."

With that in mind, how does Giddey's production stack up? Pelton told us that Giddey, before his recent shooting slump, comes out fifth in his projections, so far, behind only Jalen Suggs, Cunningham and the two G Leaguers. This doesn't include other international prospects such as Alperen Sengun quite yet, but the numbers clearly like how Giddey projects to the next level.

Pelton points out to us that Giddey's assist rate is his most impressive metric, as it ranks first in the NBL and is better than Ball's with Illawarra. Giddey's rebounding rate rivals that of Ball, as well. One question mark is Giddey's turnover rate and whether his triple-doubles are simply a product of the freedom he has in Adelaide, like we saw from French guard Killian Hayes in Ulm of the German Bundesliga.

Giddey's turnover rate is nearly double Ball's from a season ago and similar to Hayes' projection, according to Pelton. Although he has played with the basketball in his hands his entire life, skeptics will wonder whether Giddey can function as a primary ball handler at the next level or if he is better suited in the Ingles role. But the fact that Giddey has been so productive as an 18-year-old in a league that just produced names like Ball, Hampton and Tate bodes well for his NBA outlook.

The question marks

His size and feel for the game have clear value in the NBA, but for Giddey to maximize his long-term potential as a pick-and-roll playmaker, he'll have to continue evolving as a shooter. To start the season, teams ducked under pick-and-rolls and he'd turn down open looks or try to guide the ball nervously when left alone, until legendary coach Andrew Gaze told him to get out of his own head.

"I kind of flipped a switch and said I'm shooting every shot like it's going to go in, and from that day on, I've kind of never looked back," Giddey said.

He still has a bit of a slow release, and he could stand to add more ways to get to his pull-up jumper when a big is switched onto him, but the confidence is growing. With guards now fighting over the top of screens more often, Giddey has been able to pick weakside defenders apart with his passing or put pressure on the rim. He is adding nuance around the rim as a finisher and would benefit from refining Ingles' patented push shot, using more snakes to the middle of the floor, employing more hostage dribbles and getting to the free throw line at a greater clip.

Still, one of the biggest questions Giddey faces revolves around his ability to score efficiently in the half court as a primary ball handler. Although playing against grown men, including guards with NBA experience, Giddey's 13.8 points per 40 minutes ranks 93rd among the 2021 draft's top 100, ahead of only Usman Garuba, Carlos Alocen, Yves Pons, Scottie Lewis, Rokas Jokubaitis, Daishen Nix and Marcus Garrett. When Giannis Antetokounmpo or Bam Adebayo is switched onto him, can Giddey go get a bucket? Will he be able to get to his spots as a point guard against aggressive ball pressure?

Giddey is also averaging 4.1 turnovers per 40 minutes. Even opposing coaches say that's a point of weakness for him and a part of their game plan. But Giddey's size and basketball instincts, along with the way the modern NBA is refereed, works in his favor.

"The game's changed; you can't touch anyone," Bogut said. "These days, you can't even put an armbar on somebody; it's a foul. That plays into a lot of these highly skilled guys, especially the European guys that can't match the athleticism of American guys; they can keep up now because the game's refereed much differently."

Being able to create against rangy, NBA-caliber defenders was a question mark even a teenage phenom like Doncic faced despite his long list of accolades. As Ingles said of those critics looking back now, "How f---ing stupid do they feel?"

Giddey is clearly nowhere near as accomplished as Doncic. He also isn't 240-plus pounds with a step-back jumper to play off of. The question marks about Giddey being able to score efficiently in the half court against a set defense are all valid. But as scouts work to add more nuance to the term "athleticism," Giddey has ways to get a piece of the paint that defy conventional wisdom. His footwork rejecting ball screens is sharp. He uses sweeping left-to-right crossovers and timely behind-the-backs. He has perceptual quickness, catching his defender leaning one way before scampering in the other direction. Like Ingles, he is outstanding at covering ground with his dribble, pushing the ball out in front of him and squeezing through tight crevices.

"He can get his feet in the paint whenever he wants. He finds ways to do it," Clarke said. "That's the bigger piece, is what's going on between his ears. To look at situations, figure out and solve problems, that's a transferable skill."

Everyone from Doncic to Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic to Stephen Curry faced questions about their traditional "athleticism" coming into the NBA. As Bogut described, Jokic has "a body of a guy that you'd have some beers with at the local pub." Ingles also plays at a fairly slow pace, but because of his skill level, size, court vision and shooting, he is incredibly effective.

"The 'if you're not athletic you're not getting drafted or you're not going to make it in the NBA anymore' [line of thinking], I think that's completely gone," Ingles said. "If you can play and you're a smart player and you know how to get the job done, you can play in the NBA."

Will Giddey be able to get to his spot at the same level in the NBA that he does in the NBL? If surrounded by shooting, a skilled roller and another shifty guard next to him, there's surely going to be enough space for him to operate on offense.

How he performs on defense is another question entirely. Giddey will be the first to admit that at times he is too upright on the ball and tends to relax off of it. He'll ball watch and give up a corner 3 or allow a smaller guard to reject a screen.

On top of those shortcomings, there are questions about whether Giddey is strong enough to defend NBA wings, something NBA teams look for in 6-foot-8 playmakers since it allows them to play alongside smaller guards. There will surely be a learning curve, but as is the case in virtually every other aspect of his game, his instincts and anticipation -- the hardest traits to develop -- will help ease the transition.

"It's kind of just making up for lack of lateral quickness with just smarts and being able to read where he's going to be before he actually gets there," Giddey said after watching a clip of him beating Lamar Patterson to the spot before swiping the ball away for a steal.

Where Giddey goes in the draft also remains to be seen. Australia's mandatory two-week quarantine has deterred most NBA execs from venturing down under to get an in-person look at the big playmaker. But the film tells most of the story, and at the end of the day, 6-foot-8 perimeter players who can pass, dribble and at least shoot well enough to keep the defense honest have a place in the NBA. Whether it's as a wing playmaker like Ingles or Middleton or as a true point guard like Ball, Giddey looks the part of a future NBA starter who could potentially become more than that should he continue on his current rate of improvement.

"It probably wasn't until 12 month ago that I thought I could actually make a career out of basketball," Giddey told us. "I'm excited. It's been a dream of mine for as long as I've been playing basketball to be an NBA player, and it's becoming more of a reality for me, and it's becoming more of a realistic opportunity."

Validation for the NBA Academy

On top of becoming the next great Australian player to join the NBA ranks, Giddey hearing his name called in the first round also will be major validation for the NBA Academy program that started five seasons ago. Giddey will be the first NBA Academy graduate to be drafted. Five more NBA Academy alums are projected to be selected in 2022. The NBA has six academies across Australia, China, India, Mexico and Senegal, with Giddey graduating from the Global Academy in Australia before ultimately signing into the NBL for his draft-eligible season.

"When we started the Academy program, we knew this was probably a five- to 10-year runway before we really had potential for return on the investment that we were putting in," Ebersole said. "We're not even quite five years into it yet and to see Josh, as well as a number of others, to see that pipeline starting to be really robust and to see Josh be the first one to sort of break the surface, it's super exciting for our team."
 
Sharife is polarizing. The handle and vision is absolutely elite and if you can talk yourself into him developing his jumper, you could project him as a guy that might actually be a really good pro and easily outplay his draft position. If he doesn't though, I'm not even sure he stays in the league more than a few years.
 
B Sox said:
Sharife is polarizing. The handle and vision is absolutely elite and if you can talk yourself into him developing his jumper, you could project him as a guy that might actually be a really good pro and easily outplay his draft position. If he doesn't though, I'm not even sure he stays in the league more than a few years.
Click to expand...
I agree with this and think it’s a fair assessment.

Rockets won’t be contending anytime soon so I would definitely take him with either the blazers or bucks pick that we have. We need as many high upside guys on the roster as we can get.
 
HOU$TON said:
I agree with this and think it’s a fair assessment.

Rockets won’t be contending anytime soon so I would definitely take him with either the blazers or bucks pick that we have. We need as many high upside guys on the roster as we can get.
Click to expand...
IMO he'd be a no-brainer for you guys with one of those later picks.
 
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