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2025 NBA Draft Thread
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Looks like Hardy might take a fall down the board with these other guards emerging on the radar
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2022 NBA Mock Draft 4.0: Jabari Smith Jr. leaps to No. 1, but team with top pick might matter more than ever
1. Detroit Pistons
Jabari Smith Jr. | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Auburn
OK, so here we go. I have Smith at No. 1 entering the new year, but it’s a razor-thin margin between him, Banchero and Holmgren. Why Smith? I think his upside is juuuuust a bit higher than the other two if everything breaks right with his game. He’s one of the best shooting big men to enter college hoops in a long time. His percentages going back to high school are terrific, his marks so far at Auburn are great and his mechanics are pristine. At 6-foot-10, he can grab and go on the break and create havoc with his ability to get his own shot. He can pull up from midrange or from 3. He’s averaging 16 points and seven rebounds per game while playing solid defense for the Tigers. He’s switchable on the perimeter and has good weakside rotational instincts. The name “Kevin Durant” is starting to come up with Smith during broadcasts, but he’s not that because he’s nowhere near the half-court creator Durant was, even at Texas. But if all goes right, Smith profiles well as a good team’s second-best scoring option who can also be a strong defensive player. That’s a scalable player to winning situations, and he fits exceedingly well in Detroit given the Pistons’ disastrous shooting this year.
2. Orlando Magic
Paolo Banchero | 6-10 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Duke
Banchero has been No. 1 on my board going back to the preseason, but he drops to No. 2 here through no real fault of his own. He’s still very strongly in the mix to go No. 1. He’s as polished a mismatch nightmare offensively at 6-foot-10 as I can remember evaluating. He’s a monster mid-/high-post option who knows exactly how to get his defender off balance. Too small? He’ll just shoot over the top. Too big? He has a great ability to handle the ball and create separation. Even if you find the defender that is just right, Banchero’s technical craft off the bounce is absolutely superb. He can string together multiple moves to find space to get his shot. He’s averaging 17 points and seven rebounds and does so in a manner that is immediately translatable to the NBA. The questions do come on defense a bit, but I wouldn’t say Banchero is a negative defender. He has good instincts and is really smart as a rotational player. He just might lack some foot speed out on an island in space, while also lacking ideal measurements for a modern NBA center. Orlando, more than anything, needs another elite wing who can be an offensive playmaker, but that guy just isn’t here. So just take the best player available, and in this case, I actually love the fit of Franz Wagner (and potentially a frontline including Jonathan Isaac with Wendell Carter as a foursome) with Banchero.
3. Houston Rockets
Chet Holmgren | 7-1 center | 19 years old, freshman | Gonzaga
Holmgren has the highest upside defensively of any player in this draft class. He’s unbelievable on that end for a few reasons. The first is attitude. He has an exceptional mentality. He’s skinny at 195 pounds, but he doesn’t back down from anyone and is utterly fearless. The second is his length, as he has something in the range of a 7-foot-5 wingspan, which gives him an elite standing reach for the center spot in the NBA. Finally, though, Holmgren has elite weakside instincts. He’s swatting 3.4 shots per game and affects countless more through his sheer presence. He’s also mobile enough on the perimeter to handle some assignments, although he’ll be best utilized in a drop coverage alignment out of ball screens. Offensively, Holmgren has also shown some flashes this year, although I don’t think he’s quite quick or flexible enough to make an Evan Mobley-like impact on offense as a skinny big creator in half-court scenarios. He can grab and go on the break and make things happen, and his passing is strong from the high post and above the 3-point line. He still has some work to do on the jumper, but it’s easy to project him as a stretch big with some passing attributes. I see him as a 16-point, three-to-four assist per game guy who plays elite defense at the NBA level, and that’s probably a top-30 player in the league if his ceiling on the defensive end is as high as I believe it is. For a Rockets team that desperately needs more defensive acumen (and could use a strong partner with Alperen Şengün at the five), this is a terrific fit.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jaden Ivey | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Purdue
Ivey is the fourth guy here, an explosive guard who can get basically wherever he wants when he gets space offensively. At Purdue, he plays as something of a two-guard who attacks with power and quickness. He’s an elite athlete with ball in hand, a legitimate potential lead guard in the NBA. I do think I’m a touch higher on Ivey than the consensus around the league, as I’m a believer that Purdue’s system does hold him back a touch. That’s not to say it’s the wrong scheme for the team to be running; rather, it’s just an acknowledgment that in the half court, the Boilermakers center their offense around getting post touches for Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. Even so, Ivey is averaging 17 points, five rebounds and three assists for one of the better teams in the country and has shown some shot creation and live-dribble passing flashes that are elite. The key now is consistency, as evaluators have some questions about his pull-up shooting consistency (he’s hitting 45 percent from 3 this season after having hit under 30 percent as a freshman last year), his decision-making and his ability to work his way through passing reads in the half court. I’m betting some of that gets worked out at the next level in an NBA scheme. And for the Thunder, they love the dynamic, athletic guard, and Ivey would fit really well next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
5. Portland Trail Blazers
Johnny Davis | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Wisconsin
Welcome to the party, Johnny Davis. I was pretty aggressive in moving up Davis last time, slotting him as a first-rounder after his outstanding performance at the Maui Invitational. Following that event, most evaluators I spoke with saw him as something of a mid-to-late first-round pick. But as the season has progressed, there simply just hasn’t been anyone in college basketball as consistently dominant as Davis. Following Wisconsin’s road upset win of Purdue this week, when Davis led the team with a dominant 37-point, 14-rebound performance that also included high-level defense, Davis is averaging 22.2 points per game. He has yet to score under 15 points in a game this season and has been the most consistently great player in the country. He’d be my pick for National Player of the Year right now in early January. Scouts love his ability to create off the dribble, his defensive toughness and his shot-making ability off the bounce. But there are some real questions regarding just how consistent and confident he is in his jumper. That’s really the only part of his game that has bouts of inconsistency. His competitiveness has endeared him to scouts.
It’s also worth noting that this is where a substantial drop-off occurs in the draft. Scouts I’ve talked to see Davis right now more as a solid lottery-level to mid-first-round guy as opposed to a top-five guy. The problem is, there isn’t really anyone else around whom I’ve gotten the impression scouts see as a top-half-of-the-lottery guy, so Davis falls here for now.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Bennedict Mathurin | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, sophomore | Arizona
Bennedict Mathurin is another player whom I would currently have as an All-American this year, as his performance in the biggest moments for a terrific top-five team in Arizona has been outstanding. He dropped 27 points earlier this week against Washington in Arizona’s second game of Pac-12 play. He had 28 in the team’s lone loss to Tennessee, 30 in the team’s road win against Illinois, he averaged over 20 in the team’s two multi-team tournament games in November against Wichita State and Michigan and had 29 in the team’s Pac-12 opener against Oregon State. This is a typical shot-making wing profile. Mathurin is a terrific shooter, having hit 39 percent from 3 so far this season on volume as well as 42 percent last season. This year, he’s added the ability to create off the bounce on closeouts. He’s best in a straight line attacking the rim or stopping and popping for a little mid-paint floater. Defensively, he’s solid but doesn’t profile as a real difference-maker. Basically, Mathurin profiles as a solid starting NBA wing with some upside into being a plus starter. New Orleans would absolutely love to get a wing like this who can knock down shots to pair with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
7. San Antonio Spurs
Jalen Duren | 6-11 center | 18 years old, freshman | Memphis
Jalen Duren has been a complicated evaluation this season. He has all of the physical tools you could possibly look for from a big at 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He’s arguably the best pure shot blocker in this class, even if Holmgren is a bit more well-rounded as an overall rim protector. He’s averaging 11 points and eight rebounds, but it’s key to remember the team construct in which he’s currently involved. Duren is playing on a Memphis team that has absolutely no point guard when his best role right now is as a rim-running big who finishes above the rim. Put him with even a league-average point guard at the high-major level like Virginia Tech’s Storm Murphy, and he’s probably averaging at least 15 points per game. Still, his overall game hasn’t been awesome so far, as he’s struggled occasionally with fouls and hasn’t looked all that dangerous as a passer. Right now, he’s profiling as the typical toolsy center prospect that has the potential to be a top-half-of-the-league starter but probably won’t be an All-Star. Teams still are intrigued enough by those tools to where I’d expect he gets his name called somewhere between fifth and 14th on draft night, but those position-locked centers often have a lower floor than most because their draft position is dependent on if the teams in their range already have one or two centers on the roster.
8. Indiana Pacers
Kendall Brown | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Baylor
Kendall Brown has been another breakout player this season, a hyper-athletic freshman who has made his mark for Baylor through elite efficiency and defense. At 6-foot-8 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, paired with terrific fluidity, footwork and quickness as well as elite, explosive pop vertically, Brown is probably the most functional athlete in the draft. He is aggressive on defense with real switchability one through four. At the rim, he’s a legitimate presence as a weakside rotational player drivers have to account for. Offensively is where the questions come for scouts. He’s an elite transition finisher and cutter, hitting over 70 percent of his shots thus far. And as a passer, he’s smart and makes plays on the move with quick reactions. But he doesn’t look all that confident or comfortable with his jumper yet and is only taking about one 3-point attempt per game despite hitting them at a reasonable clip when he’s open. He’s my personal favorite wing in the class because I do believe in the jumper long term off the catch. But scouts are more mixed. I’ve heard him anywhere as the No. 5 guy in the class all the way down to the mid-first-round range from teams who aren’t as bullish on him shooting it long term. At the end of the day though, I’m a buyer on Brown.
9. Sacramento Kings
Patrick Baldwin Jr. | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | Milwaukee
Patrick Baldwin Jr. has had a great season so far. It’s worth contextualizing that the team around him is dreadful. They’re 3-9 against Division I opponents this season, and Baldwin has only played seven games. Around him, the guards turn the ball over constantly, they can’t get in and out of their sets against athletic, aggressive defenses, and the result is that Baldwin is often left to fend for himself as a creator on offense. That’s something he’s not particularly good at right now. He isn’t all that polished as a ballhandler, and most NBA teams see him more as something of a souped-up version of Phoenix Suns wing Cam Johnson: a terrific floor spacer who hits shots at a high level off the catch and has strong defensive instincts but doesn’t consistently create for himself. That kind of player is really valuable in a role, and Baldwin does project as a starter in that vein. But teams also have been disappointed with his effort level on defense and competitiveness, as he’s looked to check out a bit in games against Florida and Colorado this season. Even so, most evaluators I’ve talked with see him as a back-half-of-the-lottery pick right now, believing the effort level will be worked out in a more competitive setting than he’s currently in.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
A.J. Griffin | 6-6 forward | 18 years old | Duke
Figuring out what A.J. Griffin is has been one of the most difficult assignments for scouts this season. He missed some of his junior season in high school with a knee injury, and for his senior season, he moved to Tampa to work out with his dad, Adrian Griffin, who is the Toronto Raptors’ lead assistant. Then this season, he hurt his knee in training camp and didn’t get as much practice time as the rest of his Duke teammates. That resulted in a late start to his year. He played a combined eight minutes against Ohio State and Gonzaga, looking to be out of the rotation. But over the last month, the Griffin of old whom scouts loved from high school and his Team USA youth team days has started to emerge. He had 19 points against South Carolina State, 11 points in 19 minutes against Appalachian State and 13 points in the team’s ACC opener against Virginia Tech. He’s still a 6-foot-6 shot maker with a pro-ready frame, legitimate NBA athleticism and shooting ability. I think my bet would be that Griffin does not end up going in the No. 8 to No. 14 range on the draft. He’s either going to continue this emergence and rise into the top seven pretty clearly, or he’s going to struggle to maintain a role for Duke and end up as a back-half-of-the-first-round guy — if he ends up declaring for the draft at all. I’ve split the difference for now, and I’m a believer in him showcasing his talent by the end of the season. But the potential range of outcomes here is wide.
11. Atlanta Hawks
TyTy Washington | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
After a bad start to the season against Duke, TyTy Washington has just worked his way into being the guy most expected entering his freshman season at Kentucky. He’s a terrific three-level scorer, averaging 14 points, four rebounds and four assists while shooting 50 percent from the field, 41 percent from 3 and 81 percent from the line. His passing has been high level in an off-ball role next to Sahvir Wheeler, finding his teammates when they’re available. He’s been quite dangerous out of half-court sets, both as a ball-screen threat and as a spot-up player, attacking closeouts to get into his floater game or driving and dishing for his teammates. He makes good decisions and doesn’t turn the ball over. Generally, Washington profiles nicely in the same way the recent run of Kentucky off-ball guards in Tyler Herro and Tyrese Maxey have. He can play both on the ball or away from it, get efficient offense and make high-level passing reads. Some scouts see him more as a sixth man as opposed to a starter because of his lack of athleticism, but I think he separates enough and processes the way defenders play him at a high enough level to where he profiles as a starter in the right situation at the NBA level. He’ll be best next to a big wing creator or a bigger lead guard, allowing him to defend point guards and not be forced to initiate everything.
12. New York Knicks
Dyson Daniels | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite
Dyson Daniels has been the standout of the G League Ignite team for NBA scouts so far this season. His numbers don’t look gaudy, but evaluators who have watched that team progress over the course of the last few months have come away with the belief that Daniels is the top guy. Why? He just fits where the NBA is going. He has terrific positional size for the guard position at 6-foot-6, mixed with high-level passing and processing ability. He’s unselfish and smart, while still maintaining the skill level required to make an impact in the NBA. On top of that, he’s the best perimeter defender in this class, capable of guarding the one through three positions at a very high level. The only real question scouts have is the shot, as he’s shooting under 30 percent from 3. But every team was at the G League Showcase in Las Vegas in December, and the ones I’ve talked to were unanimous in saying Daniels was the player they were most interested in. I’d peg him somewhere in the 10 to 19 range pretty comfortably right now.
13. Toronto Raptors
Keegan Murray | 6-8 forward | 21 years old | Iowa
Keegan Murray has been one of the most productive players in college hoops this season, averaging 24.5 points and 8.2 rebounds on extremely efficient percentages. Early on, I was a bit skeptical because Iowa did not play a strong schedule. But Murray has been outstanding even against tough teams, showcasing the varied nature of his skill set and dominating. Against Maryland earlier this week, his first half was an outstanding example of how he’s become one of the most dominant forces in college hoops on offense. Murray made a couple of stepback fadeaways from the midrange and splashed a couple of 3s. He had a pair of grab-and-go dunks out on the break where he just beat everyone down the floor for an easy finish. Offensively, I have very few concerns in terms of how he will translate. Defensively, I have a few questions in terms of the position he’ll play. Sometimes, he looks like a small-ball five out there. Other times, he looks like he can move his feet on the perimeter and out in space. Tracking how he looks in space defensively over the course of the rest of the season will ultimately play a critical role in how high he goes on draft night.
14. Boston Celtics
Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Kansas
I’m not sure what more Ochai Agbaji has to do to get people to buy into him in the public sector. Pretty consistently when I talk to NBA teams about him, they have a mid-first-round grade in the 10-20 range on him right now. He’s drastically improved the pace at which he plays, and he’s much more comfortable putting the ball on the deck. He’s a high-level shooter who also defends multiple positions. The worst-case scenario here is that he’s a rotational wing. The best case is that he can be a legit starter on a good team in a 3-and-D role because of how strong he is. He’s averaging 20 points and five rebounds while shooting 50 percent from the field and 45 percent from 3. He’s a potential first-team All-American. These guys go somewhere in the top 20 typically when they fit well within the NBA construct.
15. Washington Wizards
Nikola Jović | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Mega
Nikola Jović is one international player who has actually helped himself a bit this season. He’s really improved his stroke from 3, looking extremely comfortable from distance. His shot prep is terrific, taking them off the hop and getting into the shot cleanly. Thus far, he’s made 37 percent from 3. On top of it, he’s a high-level passer who constantly makes strong reads to cutters from the perimeter. At just 18 years old, he’s averaging 11 points, four rebounds and three assists in the Adriatic League, strong numbers for an underage teenager. The athleticism is a bit of a question, but Jović has been excellent so far this year and looks every bit the part of a first-round pick.
16. Memphis Grizzlies (via LAL)
Blake Wesley | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Notre Dame
Another big-time riser. Blake Wesley wasn’t seen a ton in high school despite being a top-70 recruit who decided to stay home in South Bend and attend Notre Dame. Having said that, he’s one of those guys who could either end up in the back half of the lottery or end up going back to school as scouts try to get a handle on him. The thing that has stood out most to evaluators is Wesley’s comfort in half-court settings getting buckets and creating offense for himself. He is arguably the freshman in this guard class most capable of creating his own look out of ball screens and isolation. The big question, though, is the jumper. Wesley has fine numbers going back to high school, but his shot comes out a bit flat. He needs to keep working through that, but his feel for getting a shot off the bounce has already started to really give him value to NBA teams.
17. Dallas Mavericks
Jean Montero | 6-2 guard | 18 years old | Overtime Elite
In the tape I’ve seen out of the Overtime Elite program, Jean Montero looks like the same player he has been overseas for the past few years: a shifty lead guard with terrific pull-up ability and real scoring acumen who doesn’t put a crazy amount of pressure on the rim and struggles a bit on defense. The one thing that has showcased itself a bit more, according to scouts, is Montero’s passing ability. He’s no longer looking purely like a score-first guard and may actually have some real playmaking acumen. Having said that, evaluators are having an awfully difficult time figuring out what to make of Overtime Elite right now and how exactly to compare that level of play (it’s lower) to the level of play in places such as college and the NBL. Montero is all over the map for scouts.
18. Charlotte Hornets
Trevor Keels | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | Duke
Trevor Keels has really cooled off after a great start to his career at Duke. After one of the best openers to a career that a player could ask for against Kentucky, Keels is averaging just 12 points and three assists per game while shooting 41 percent from the field and 31 percent from 3. I’m a bit more worried about the jumper (it’s a bit compact and mechanical for me) than scouts are, as they believe in Keels’ touch. They also think he might be able to play a bit of point in spots with some skill improvement. But one thing that can’t be argued is that Keels is a terrific defender. He is as strong as an NBA player right now and has real lateral quickness to stay in front. The idea here is a 3-and-D guard who can attack off the bounce a bit. It also helps that he’s one of the youngest players in the class, with evaluators believing that despite his filled-out frame, there is still some room for skill development.
19. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC)
MarJon Beauchamp | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | G League Ignite
MarJon Beauchamp has emerged as a fascinating development story with the Ignite. After a well-traveled journey, he settled with the Ignite as almost an afterthought this season behind Daniels, Jaden Hardy and Michael Foster. But scouts who have been around the team have been extremely impressed with his attitude and demeanor. He’s all about the work and the team. His defensive energy has been top-notch, and his mix of positional size, athleticism and length has translated well to the G League. He’s going to have to bring more as a shooter and as a ballhandler, but he’s been effective as a cutter and transition player. Essentially, the hope here is for a rotational wing if he learns to shoot. I’m a bit less high on Beauchamp personally, but the feedback is in this range.
20. Denver Nuggets
Kennedy Chandler | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | Tennessee
I haven’t loved what I’ve seen from Kennedy Chandler this year despite his averaging 14 points and five assists with reasonable percentages. He has electric speed and can get into the paint, but I don’t love the way he reads defenses when he gets there. He seems to not totally recognize exactly how defenders are playing him if they start to mix on-ball coverages. He’s comfortable getting to his floater, but he rarely gets all the way to the rim to finish or draw fouls. He also has a bit of a propensity to overdribble on the perimeter. There isn’t really much of a difference in the team’s offensive efficiency when Chandler is on the court versus when Zakai Zeigler is backing him up.
All of this is somewhat normal for a young guard; the problem is just that the margin for error for these players is basically zero. The thing I’m struggling with a bit is that Chandler is smaller than Sharife Cooper, and Cooper had an undeniably better freshman season than Chandler is having. Between the two, I would rather have Cooper. I had Cooper as a first-round grade in the 20s, but he went in the back half of the second round in large part due to size concerns. It’s really, really hard to be 6-foot, 170 pounds in the NBA. Teams are a bit more skeptical of Chandler in my conversations than the general public seems to be.
21. Philadelphia 76ers
Jaden Hardy | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
This is a drop for Hardy. But the consensus from the scouts I talked to who attended the G League Showcase was that Hardy looked like the third-best prospect there on the Ignite behind Beauchamp and Daniels. Beauchamp over Hardy wasn’t unanimous, but scouts were very unimpressed with Hardy’s play. His 17 points per game are the most among the Ignite’s prospects, but scoring isn’t the only skill that matters. He’s been highly inefficient, taking a bevy of horrible midrange jumpers and shooting just 35 percent from the field and 26 percent from 3. He has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio while averaging nearly four turnovers per game and has not been an effective defender. Right now, he looks like an undersized, inefficient combo guard. I’ve brought up Cam Thomas’ name quite a bit in conversations with scouts this season. Most scouts I’ve spoken with had better feelings about Thomas last year and his elite scoring ability coming out of LSU. Hardy is playing AAU ball in the G League right now, whereas Thomas at least got his buckets within the flow of the offense. Thomas also went 27th in last year’s draft. This year’s draft is more up in the air, and it’s possible Hardy has time to improve as the G League season kicks back off this month. Hardy needs to focus less on scoring and more on better decision-making.
22. Cleveland Cavaliers
Wendell Moore | 6-5 wing | 20 years old | Duke
Wendell Moore has been utterly outstanding across a lot of different aspects for Duke. He’s been the team’s most consistent initiator of offense due to his passing ability and his poise. He’s much more comfortable playing at his own pace this year, using his strength and improved handle to keep defenders where he wants them on his hip. He has improved as a shooter and scorer so far this season. He’s made 41 percent from 3 and has a 65.8 true-shooting percentage, the latter of which is a ridiculous number for his volume. On top of that, his defense has been outstanding this season on the perimeter. The big questions with Moore revolve around his shooting (the 41 percent mark from 3 is a substantial increase over what is currently a small sample) and his athleticism. What role does he play on offense if the jumper doesn’t translate, given that he’ll likely struggle to separate from opposing players at the NBA level without it? There is some former Warriors first-round pick Jacob Evans to this skill profile. Here’s the thing, though: I loved the idea of Jacob Evans back when he was entering the draft! The idea is still sound if the shooting is there. Evans’ shooting never came, but maybe Moore’s can?
23. Houston Rockets (via MIA)
JD Davison | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Alabama
JD Davison has had a fascinating season. On the plus side, he’s an absolutely electric athlete whose explosiveness both in terms of first step and bounce have translated at a high level. But the problems here are pretty evident. He’s a non-shooter right now, having hit just 28 percent from 3 overall and 2-for-14 on pull-up attempts so far. He’s also not really capable of truly running the show as a distributor for Alabama right now, as his handle and poise aren’t quite good enough at this point. He’s playing off the ball often next to Jahvon Quinerly and making plays attacking off the catch. He’s also a bit of a turnover machine right now too. I’m a bit lower on Davison than this, but teams do see real upside if they can get him into their system because he is truly an elite athlete from the lead guard spot. I’m not totally convinced he’s a one-and-done, but we’ll see where things settle in SEC play.
24. Memphis Grizzlies
Tari Eason | 6-8 forward | 20 years old | LSU
Tari Eason is one of the most difficult evaluations in college basketball right now. He’s one of the better defensive prospects in the country, a switchable Swiss Army knife who flies around in help, recovers like crazy out of screening actions, swats the hell out of weakside shots with impunity and jumps passing lanes to create open-court transition chances. He rebounds the ball well, then pushes to grab and go out in transition. He passes well and knows how to cut and move in half-court offense. The problem is that it’s unclear what his role will be on that end beyond that. His jumper is a bit of a mess mechanically, although there is some hope in terms of his touch (he has hit 80 percent from the foul line and the ball comes out pretty naturally). It’s just a strange, low release point with a bit of a catapult. I have him here, but NBA scouts are very split. Some see him as a top-20 guy; others see him as a top-45 guy.
25. Milwaukee Bucks
Harrison Ingram | 6-7 wing/forward | 19 years old | Stanford
Harrison Ingram has been statistically strong this year for a wing as a freshman, averaging 12 points, seven rebounds and three assists. Particularly, that passing ability has really stood out for a player who is 6-foot-7. He makes passes on the move and out of side pick-and-rolls and consistently processes the game well. It’s a legitimate plus skill. He doesn’t take many bad shots, and defensively, he’s generally solid if unspectacular. The only issue here is that Ingram has a tough combination of poor shooting mixed with poor explosiveness. The jumper is essential for him to have success at the next level as a role player. He’s worth developing, but he’s another one of these wings who could end up in the top 20 or could end up back at Stanford for his sophomore year.
26. Miami Heat (via BKN)
Mark Williams | 7-0 center | 20 years old | Duke
Mark Williams has been outstanding as a rim protector this season for Duke and has the look of a prototypical rim-running five. He completely controls the paint when he’s out there. He handles the glass with ease on both ends, corralling rebounds for extra possessions. He swats shots and contests them to apply pressure to the opposition. His 7-foot-5-plus wingspan is very difficult to finish over the top of when he’s out there. On offense, he rolls hard to the rim and makes himself available for lobs and dump-offs every time. It’s a limited role because his team is as good as it is, but I wouldn’t sleep on Williams turning into a lower-end NBA starting center and making a ton of money.
27. Chicago Bulls
Caleb Houstan | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Michigan
Caleb Houstan has had a tough year at Michigan. He’s averaging under 10 points with a 51.2 true-shooting percentage. Generally, he hasn’t looked all that comfortable or confident when Michigan has played good teams. The speed of the game has been a bit quick, and he’s rushed some shots. He looked to have potentially turned a corner against San Diego State and Nebraska with 14 and 17 points, but he’s followed it up with 18 points on 20 shots in the next three games. Houstan isn’t a crazy athlete, but he has good feel and comfort with the ball in his hands, so he needs to be able to operate at his own pace and make things happen. Right now, he looks more like a multi-year guy, but he stays here for now given that he has shown the occasional flash.
28. Memphis Grizzlies (via UTA)
Ousmane Dieng | 6-8 forward | 18 years old | New Zealand Breakers
Ousmane Dieng has been poor for the Breakers so far. He’s averaging three points per game while shooting 21 percent from the field. Playing in the NBL isn’t easy given that it’s a pro league that is tough and physical, and Dieng was not expected to necessarily have the kind of impact that someone like LaMelo Ball did, as his game was seen as more raw. At 6-foot-8, Dieng is a big-wing ballhandler who has shown some real upside as a passer and playmaker in the past. Indeed, in moments this year, that potential has come through despite the inefficiency. Still, his play this season has been pretty undeniably bad. There are teams that will be willing to write off this year to an extent, given those factors. I’ve talked to a few that definitely have more patience for him than others. But Dieng will need to step it up as the season progresses or otherwise risk falling to the point that he ends up being more of a 2023 draft guy. The Grizzlies have three first-round picks and can afford to stash one and pray.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder (via PHX)
Aminu Mohammed | 6-5 wing | 20 years old | Georgetown
Aminu Mohammed has been one of the most productive freshmen in college hoops this season despite playing for an undermanned Georgetown team. He’s averaging 15 points and nine rebounds per game as a physical, tough wing who constantly plays with an edge. He’s strong and stout at 210 pounds and plays with the kind of energy that forces his teammates to lift themselves. His best skill offensively right now is his driving. He’s a tough and physical on-ball defender but has some jumper questions in terms of consistency. There are a lot of comparisons to be had to someone like Lu Dort, who I was also a fan of in the 2019 NBA Draft and had a first-round grade on despite him going undrafted. Mohammed has potential to be a solid role player who brings energy off the bench, and the Thunder love guys like this.
30. Golden State Warriors
Bryce McGowens | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Nebraska
I don’t really love Bryce McGowens as a 2022 draft pick because I think he’s a ways away from helping an NBA team in terms of efficient, smart play. But his talent as a shot creator is real, and NBA teams are interested in his intersection of positional size at 6-foot-6 and playmaking ability. On one hand, he’s averaging 16 points and six assists. On the other hand, all of his best games have come against Nebraska’s worst competition. In Nebraska’s six games against what KenPom qualifies as Tier A or B competition, McGowens has posted a sub-40 true-shooting percentage and has shot 4-for-27 from 3 and under 40 percent from 2-point range. He also has not been particularly good defensively.
It’s worth noting that he’s playing next to a Stacy Patton-level black hole of basketball in Alonzo Verge, a talented, creative guard who seems at times almost solely interested in pounding the ball into the ground at the expense of any sort of ball movement. The team has been pretty substantially better with Kobe Webster in the game instead of Verge because the ball doesn’t stick. Per Pivot Analysis, in the minutes McGowens plays with Verge, the team averages 101.8 points per 100 possessions. In the minutes he plays with Webster and without Verge, Nebraska averages 115.4 points per 100. Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg has benched Verge a few times throughout the season despite his gaudy counting numbers — including in the team’s most recent game against Ohio State. It’s possible we don’t get a real read on McGowens until we see more minutes like that.
Second round
31. Orlando Magic: Hugo Besson | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | New Zealand Breakers
32. San Antonio Spurs (via DET): Caleb Love | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | North Carolina
33. Cleveland Cavaliers (via HOU): Jeremy Sochan | 6-8 forward | 18 years old | Baylor
34. Oklahoma City Thunder: Christian Koloko | 7-1 center | 21 years old | Arizona
35. Portland Trail Blazers: Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | UCLA
36. New Orleans Pelicans: Yannick Nzosa | 6-11 center | 18 years old | Unicaja Malaga
37. Cleveland Cavaliers (via SAS): Julian Champagnie | 6-8 forward | 20 years old | St. John’s
38. Orlando Magic (via IND): E.J. Liddell | 6-7 forward | 21 years old | Ohio State
39. Sacramento Kings: Jordan Hall | 6-8 guard | 19 years old | St. Joseph’s
40. Minnesota Timberwolves: Isaiah Mobley | 6-10 forward | 22 years old | USC
41. Atlanta Hawks: Ismaël Kamagate | 6-11 center | 21 years old | Paris Basketball
42. New York Knicks: Moussa Diabaté | 6-10 forward | 19 years old | Michigan
43. Golden State Warriors (via TOR): Walker Kessler | 7-0 center | 20 years old | Auburn
44. Boston Celtics: Jabari Walker | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | Colorado
45. Minnesota Timberwolves (via WAS): Gabriele Procida | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Fortitudo Bologna
46. San Antonio Spurs (via LAL): Keon Ellis | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Alabama
47. Dallas Mavericks: Hyunjung Lee | 6-7 wing | 21 years old | Davidson
48. Charlotte Hornets: Terrence Shannon Jr. | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Texas Tech
49. LA Clippers: Dereon Seabron | 6-7 wing | 21 years old | NC State
50. Minnesota Timberwolves (via DEN): Justin Lewis | 6-7 forward | 20 years old | Marquette
51. Miami Heat (via PHI): Roko Prkačin | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | Cibona
52. New Orleans Pelicans (via CLE): Johnny Juzang | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | UCLA
53. Utah Jazz (via MEM): Trevion Williams | 6-10 forward | 21 years old | Purdue
54. Detroit Pistons (via BKN): Drew Timme | 6-10 center | 21 years old | Gonzaga
55. Sacramento Kings (via CHI): Michael Foster | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | G League Ignite
56. New Orleans Pelicans (via UTA): Iverson Molinar | 6-3 guard | 22 years old | Mississippi State
57. Phoenix Suns: Gui Santos | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Minas
58. Golden State Warriors: Jahvon Quinerly | 6-2 guard | 23 years old | Alabama
1. Detroit Pistons
Jabari Smith Jr. | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Auburn
OK, so here we go. I have Smith at No. 1 entering the new year, but it’s a razor-thin margin between him, Banchero and Holmgren. Why Smith? I think his upside is juuuuust a bit higher than the other two if everything breaks right with his game. He’s one of the best shooting big men to enter college hoops in a long time. His percentages going back to high school are terrific, his marks so far at Auburn are great and his mechanics are pristine. At 6-foot-10, he can grab and go on the break and create havoc with his ability to get his own shot. He can pull up from midrange or from 3. He’s averaging 16 points and seven rebounds per game while playing solid defense for the Tigers. He’s switchable on the perimeter and has good weakside rotational instincts. The name “Kevin Durant” is starting to come up with Smith during broadcasts, but he’s not that because he’s nowhere near the half-court creator Durant was, even at Texas. But if all goes right, Smith profiles well as a good team’s second-best scoring option who can also be a strong defensive player. That’s a scalable player to winning situations, and he fits exceedingly well in Detroit given the Pistons’ disastrous shooting this year.
2. Orlando Magic
Paolo Banchero | 6-10 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Duke
Banchero has been No. 1 on my board going back to the preseason, but he drops to No. 2 here through no real fault of his own. He’s still very strongly in the mix to go No. 1. He’s as polished a mismatch nightmare offensively at 6-foot-10 as I can remember evaluating. He’s a monster mid-/high-post option who knows exactly how to get his defender off balance. Too small? He’ll just shoot over the top. Too big? He has a great ability to handle the ball and create separation. Even if you find the defender that is just right, Banchero’s technical craft off the bounce is absolutely superb. He can string together multiple moves to find space to get his shot. He’s averaging 17 points and seven rebounds and does so in a manner that is immediately translatable to the NBA. The questions do come on defense a bit, but I wouldn’t say Banchero is a negative defender. He has good instincts and is really smart as a rotational player. He just might lack some foot speed out on an island in space, while also lacking ideal measurements for a modern NBA center. Orlando, more than anything, needs another elite wing who can be an offensive playmaker, but that guy just isn’t here. So just take the best player available, and in this case, I actually love the fit of Franz Wagner (and potentially a frontline including Jonathan Isaac with Wendell Carter as a foursome) with Banchero.
3. Houston Rockets
Chet Holmgren | 7-1 center | 19 years old, freshman | Gonzaga
Holmgren has the highest upside defensively of any player in this draft class. He’s unbelievable on that end for a few reasons. The first is attitude. He has an exceptional mentality. He’s skinny at 195 pounds, but he doesn’t back down from anyone and is utterly fearless. The second is his length, as he has something in the range of a 7-foot-5 wingspan, which gives him an elite standing reach for the center spot in the NBA. Finally, though, Holmgren has elite weakside instincts. He’s swatting 3.4 shots per game and affects countless more through his sheer presence. He’s also mobile enough on the perimeter to handle some assignments, although he’ll be best utilized in a drop coverage alignment out of ball screens. Offensively, Holmgren has also shown some flashes this year, although I don’t think he’s quite quick or flexible enough to make an Evan Mobley-like impact on offense as a skinny big creator in half-court scenarios. He can grab and go on the break and make things happen, and his passing is strong from the high post and above the 3-point line. He still has some work to do on the jumper, but it’s easy to project him as a stretch big with some passing attributes. I see him as a 16-point, three-to-four assist per game guy who plays elite defense at the NBA level, and that’s probably a top-30 player in the league if his ceiling on the defensive end is as high as I believe it is. For a Rockets team that desperately needs more defensive acumen (and could use a strong partner with Alperen Şengün at the five), this is a terrific fit.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jaden Ivey | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Purdue
Ivey is the fourth guy here, an explosive guard who can get basically wherever he wants when he gets space offensively. At Purdue, he plays as something of a two-guard who attacks with power and quickness. He’s an elite athlete with ball in hand, a legitimate potential lead guard in the NBA. I do think I’m a touch higher on Ivey than the consensus around the league, as I’m a believer that Purdue’s system does hold him back a touch. That’s not to say it’s the wrong scheme for the team to be running; rather, it’s just an acknowledgment that in the half court, the Boilermakers center their offense around getting post touches for Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. Even so, Ivey is averaging 17 points, five rebounds and three assists for one of the better teams in the country and has shown some shot creation and live-dribble passing flashes that are elite. The key now is consistency, as evaluators have some questions about his pull-up shooting consistency (he’s hitting 45 percent from 3 this season after having hit under 30 percent as a freshman last year), his decision-making and his ability to work his way through passing reads in the half court. I’m betting some of that gets worked out at the next level in an NBA scheme. And for the Thunder, they love the dynamic, athletic guard, and Ivey would fit really well next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
5. Portland Trail Blazers
Johnny Davis | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Wisconsin
Welcome to the party, Johnny Davis. I was pretty aggressive in moving up Davis last time, slotting him as a first-rounder after his outstanding performance at the Maui Invitational. Following that event, most evaluators I spoke with saw him as something of a mid-to-late first-round pick. But as the season has progressed, there simply just hasn’t been anyone in college basketball as consistently dominant as Davis. Following Wisconsin’s road upset win of Purdue this week, when Davis led the team with a dominant 37-point, 14-rebound performance that also included high-level defense, Davis is averaging 22.2 points per game. He has yet to score under 15 points in a game this season and has been the most consistently great player in the country. He’d be my pick for National Player of the Year right now in early January. Scouts love his ability to create off the dribble, his defensive toughness and his shot-making ability off the bounce. But there are some real questions regarding just how consistent and confident he is in his jumper. That’s really the only part of his game that has bouts of inconsistency. His competitiveness has endeared him to scouts.
It’s also worth noting that this is where a substantial drop-off occurs in the draft. Scouts I’ve talked to see Davis right now more as a solid lottery-level to mid-first-round guy as opposed to a top-five guy. The problem is, there isn’t really anyone else around whom I’ve gotten the impression scouts see as a top-half-of-the-lottery guy, so Davis falls here for now.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Bennedict Mathurin | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, sophomore | Arizona
Bennedict Mathurin is another player whom I would currently have as an All-American this year, as his performance in the biggest moments for a terrific top-five team in Arizona has been outstanding. He dropped 27 points earlier this week against Washington in Arizona’s second game of Pac-12 play. He had 28 in the team’s lone loss to Tennessee, 30 in the team’s road win against Illinois, he averaged over 20 in the team’s two multi-team tournament games in November against Wichita State and Michigan and had 29 in the team’s Pac-12 opener against Oregon State. This is a typical shot-making wing profile. Mathurin is a terrific shooter, having hit 39 percent from 3 so far this season on volume as well as 42 percent last season. This year, he’s added the ability to create off the bounce on closeouts. He’s best in a straight line attacking the rim or stopping and popping for a little mid-paint floater. Defensively, he’s solid but doesn’t profile as a real difference-maker. Basically, Mathurin profiles as a solid starting NBA wing with some upside into being a plus starter. New Orleans would absolutely love to get a wing like this who can knock down shots to pair with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
7. San Antonio Spurs
Jalen Duren | 6-11 center | 18 years old, freshman | Memphis
Jalen Duren has been a complicated evaluation this season. He has all of the physical tools you could possibly look for from a big at 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He’s arguably the best pure shot blocker in this class, even if Holmgren is a bit more well-rounded as an overall rim protector. He’s averaging 11 points and eight rebounds, but it’s key to remember the team construct in which he’s currently involved. Duren is playing on a Memphis team that has absolutely no point guard when his best role right now is as a rim-running big who finishes above the rim. Put him with even a league-average point guard at the high-major level like Virginia Tech’s Storm Murphy, and he’s probably averaging at least 15 points per game. Still, his overall game hasn’t been awesome so far, as he’s struggled occasionally with fouls and hasn’t looked all that dangerous as a passer. Right now, he’s profiling as the typical toolsy center prospect that has the potential to be a top-half-of-the-league starter but probably won’t be an All-Star. Teams still are intrigued enough by those tools to where I’d expect he gets his name called somewhere between fifth and 14th on draft night, but those position-locked centers often have a lower floor than most because their draft position is dependent on if the teams in their range already have one or two centers on the roster.
8. Indiana Pacers
Kendall Brown | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Baylor
Kendall Brown has been another breakout player this season, a hyper-athletic freshman who has made his mark for Baylor through elite efficiency and defense. At 6-foot-8 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, paired with terrific fluidity, footwork and quickness as well as elite, explosive pop vertically, Brown is probably the most functional athlete in the draft. He is aggressive on defense with real switchability one through four. At the rim, he’s a legitimate presence as a weakside rotational player drivers have to account for. Offensively is where the questions come for scouts. He’s an elite transition finisher and cutter, hitting over 70 percent of his shots thus far. And as a passer, he’s smart and makes plays on the move with quick reactions. But he doesn’t look all that confident or comfortable with his jumper yet and is only taking about one 3-point attempt per game despite hitting them at a reasonable clip when he’s open. He’s my personal favorite wing in the class because I do believe in the jumper long term off the catch. But scouts are more mixed. I’ve heard him anywhere as the No. 5 guy in the class all the way down to the mid-first-round range from teams who aren’t as bullish on him shooting it long term. At the end of the day though, I’m a buyer on Brown.
9. Sacramento Kings
Patrick Baldwin Jr. | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | Milwaukee
Patrick Baldwin Jr. has had a great season so far. It’s worth contextualizing that the team around him is dreadful. They’re 3-9 against Division I opponents this season, and Baldwin has only played seven games. Around him, the guards turn the ball over constantly, they can’t get in and out of their sets against athletic, aggressive defenses, and the result is that Baldwin is often left to fend for himself as a creator on offense. That’s something he’s not particularly good at right now. He isn’t all that polished as a ballhandler, and most NBA teams see him more as something of a souped-up version of Phoenix Suns wing Cam Johnson: a terrific floor spacer who hits shots at a high level off the catch and has strong defensive instincts but doesn’t consistently create for himself. That kind of player is really valuable in a role, and Baldwin does project as a starter in that vein. But teams also have been disappointed with his effort level on defense and competitiveness, as he’s looked to check out a bit in games against Florida and Colorado this season. Even so, most evaluators I’ve talked with see him as a back-half-of-the-lottery pick right now, believing the effort level will be worked out in a more competitive setting than he’s currently in.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
A.J. Griffin | 6-6 forward | 18 years old | Duke
Figuring out what A.J. Griffin is has been one of the most difficult assignments for scouts this season. He missed some of his junior season in high school with a knee injury, and for his senior season, he moved to Tampa to work out with his dad, Adrian Griffin, who is the Toronto Raptors’ lead assistant. Then this season, he hurt his knee in training camp and didn’t get as much practice time as the rest of his Duke teammates. That resulted in a late start to his year. He played a combined eight minutes against Ohio State and Gonzaga, looking to be out of the rotation. But over the last month, the Griffin of old whom scouts loved from high school and his Team USA youth team days has started to emerge. He had 19 points against South Carolina State, 11 points in 19 minutes against Appalachian State and 13 points in the team’s ACC opener against Virginia Tech. He’s still a 6-foot-6 shot maker with a pro-ready frame, legitimate NBA athleticism and shooting ability. I think my bet would be that Griffin does not end up going in the No. 8 to No. 14 range on the draft. He’s either going to continue this emergence and rise into the top seven pretty clearly, or he’s going to struggle to maintain a role for Duke and end up as a back-half-of-the-first-round guy — if he ends up declaring for the draft at all. I’ve split the difference for now, and I’m a believer in him showcasing his talent by the end of the season. But the potential range of outcomes here is wide.
11. Atlanta Hawks
TyTy Washington | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
After a bad start to the season against Duke, TyTy Washington has just worked his way into being the guy most expected entering his freshman season at Kentucky. He’s a terrific three-level scorer, averaging 14 points, four rebounds and four assists while shooting 50 percent from the field, 41 percent from 3 and 81 percent from the line. His passing has been high level in an off-ball role next to Sahvir Wheeler, finding his teammates when they’re available. He’s been quite dangerous out of half-court sets, both as a ball-screen threat and as a spot-up player, attacking closeouts to get into his floater game or driving and dishing for his teammates. He makes good decisions and doesn’t turn the ball over. Generally, Washington profiles nicely in the same way the recent run of Kentucky off-ball guards in Tyler Herro and Tyrese Maxey have. He can play both on the ball or away from it, get efficient offense and make high-level passing reads. Some scouts see him more as a sixth man as opposed to a starter because of his lack of athleticism, but I think he separates enough and processes the way defenders play him at a high enough level to where he profiles as a starter in the right situation at the NBA level. He’ll be best next to a big wing creator or a bigger lead guard, allowing him to defend point guards and not be forced to initiate everything.
12. New York Knicks
Dyson Daniels | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite
Dyson Daniels has been the standout of the G League Ignite team for NBA scouts so far this season. His numbers don’t look gaudy, but evaluators who have watched that team progress over the course of the last few months have come away with the belief that Daniels is the top guy. Why? He just fits where the NBA is going. He has terrific positional size for the guard position at 6-foot-6, mixed with high-level passing and processing ability. He’s unselfish and smart, while still maintaining the skill level required to make an impact in the NBA. On top of that, he’s the best perimeter defender in this class, capable of guarding the one through three positions at a very high level. The only real question scouts have is the shot, as he’s shooting under 30 percent from 3. But every team was at the G League Showcase in Las Vegas in December, and the ones I’ve talked to were unanimous in saying Daniels was the player they were most interested in. I’d peg him somewhere in the 10 to 19 range pretty comfortably right now.
13. Toronto Raptors
Keegan Murray | 6-8 forward | 21 years old | Iowa
Keegan Murray has been one of the most productive players in college hoops this season, averaging 24.5 points and 8.2 rebounds on extremely efficient percentages. Early on, I was a bit skeptical because Iowa did not play a strong schedule. But Murray has been outstanding even against tough teams, showcasing the varied nature of his skill set and dominating. Against Maryland earlier this week, his first half was an outstanding example of how he’s become one of the most dominant forces in college hoops on offense. Murray made a couple of stepback fadeaways from the midrange and splashed a couple of 3s. He had a pair of grab-and-go dunks out on the break where he just beat everyone down the floor for an easy finish. Offensively, I have very few concerns in terms of how he will translate. Defensively, I have a few questions in terms of the position he’ll play. Sometimes, he looks like a small-ball five out there. Other times, he looks like he can move his feet on the perimeter and out in space. Tracking how he looks in space defensively over the course of the rest of the season will ultimately play a critical role in how high he goes on draft night.
14. Boston Celtics
Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Kansas
I’m not sure what more Ochai Agbaji has to do to get people to buy into him in the public sector. Pretty consistently when I talk to NBA teams about him, they have a mid-first-round grade in the 10-20 range on him right now. He’s drastically improved the pace at which he plays, and he’s much more comfortable putting the ball on the deck. He’s a high-level shooter who also defends multiple positions. The worst-case scenario here is that he’s a rotational wing. The best case is that he can be a legit starter on a good team in a 3-and-D role because of how strong he is. He’s averaging 20 points and five rebounds while shooting 50 percent from the field and 45 percent from 3. He’s a potential first-team All-American. These guys go somewhere in the top 20 typically when they fit well within the NBA construct.
15. Washington Wizards
Nikola Jović | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Mega
Nikola Jović is one international player who has actually helped himself a bit this season. He’s really improved his stroke from 3, looking extremely comfortable from distance. His shot prep is terrific, taking them off the hop and getting into the shot cleanly. Thus far, he’s made 37 percent from 3. On top of it, he’s a high-level passer who constantly makes strong reads to cutters from the perimeter. At just 18 years old, he’s averaging 11 points, four rebounds and three assists in the Adriatic League, strong numbers for an underage teenager. The athleticism is a bit of a question, but Jović has been excellent so far this year and looks every bit the part of a first-round pick.
16. Memphis Grizzlies (via LAL)
Blake Wesley | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Notre Dame
Another big-time riser. Blake Wesley wasn’t seen a ton in high school despite being a top-70 recruit who decided to stay home in South Bend and attend Notre Dame. Having said that, he’s one of those guys who could either end up in the back half of the lottery or end up going back to school as scouts try to get a handle on him. The thing that has stood out most to evaluators is Wesley’s comfort in half-court settings getting buckets and creating offense for himself. He is arguably the freshman in this guard class most capable of creating his own look out of ball screens and isolation. The big question, though, is the jumper. Wesley has fine numbers going back to high school, but his shot comes out a bit flat. He needs to keep working through that, but his feel for getting a shot off the bounce has already started to really give him value to NBA teams.
17. Dallas Mavericks
Jean Montero | 6-2 guard | 18 years old | Overtime Elite
In the tape I’ve seen out of the Overtime Elite program, Jean Montero looks like the same player he has been overseas for the past few years: a shifty lead guard with terrific pull-up ability and real scoring acumen who doesn’t put a crazy amount of pressure on the rim and struggles a bit on defense. The one thing that has showcased itself a bit more, according to scouts, is Montero’s passing ability. He’s no longer looking purely like a score-first guard and may actually have some real playmaking acumen. Having said that, evaluators are having an awfully difficult time figuring out what to make of Overtime Elite right now and how exactly to compare that level of play (it’s lower) to the level of play in places such as college and the NBL. Montero is all over the map for scouts.
18. Charlotte Hornets
Trevor Keels | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | Duke
Trevor Keels has really cooled off after a great start to his career at Duke. After one of the best openers to a career that a player could ask for against Kentucky, Keels is averaging just 12 points and three assists per game while shooting 41 percent from the field and 31 percent from 3. I’m a bit more worried about the jumper (it’s a bit compact and mechanical for me) than scouts are, as they believe in Keels’ touch. They also think he might be able to play a bit of point in spots with some skill improvement. But one thing that can’t be argued is that Keels is a terrific defender. He is as strong as an NBA player right now and has real lateral quickness to stay in front. The idea here is a 3-and-D guard who can attack off the bounce a bit. It also helps that he’s one of the youngest players in the class, with evaluators believing that despite his filled-out frame, there is still some room for skill development.
19. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC)
MarJon Beauchamp | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | G League Ignite
MarJon Beauchamp has emerged as a fascinating development story with the Ignite. After a well-traveled journey, he settled with the Ignite as almost an afterthought this season behind Daniels, Jaden Hardy and Michael Foster. But scouts who have been around the team have been extremely impressed with his attitude and demeanor. He’s all about the work and the team. His defensive energy has been top-notch, and his mix of positional size, athleticism and length has translated well to the G League. He’s going to have to bring more as a shooter and as a ballhandler, but he’s been effective as a cutter and transition player. Essentially, the hope here is for a rotational wing if he learns to shoot. I’m a bit less high on Beauchamp personally, but the feedback is in this range.
20. Denver Nuggets
Kennedy Chandler | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | Tennessee
I haven’t loved what I’ve seen from Kennedy Chandler this year despite his averaging 14 points and five assists with reasonable percentages. He has electric speed and can get into the paint, but I don’t love the way he reads defenses when he gets there. He seems to not totally recognize exactly how defenders are playing him if they start to mix on-ball coverages. He’s comfortable getting to his floater, but he rarely gets all the way to the rim to finish or draw fouls. He also has a bit of a propensity to overdribble on the perimeter. There isn’t really much of a difference in the team’s offensive efficiency when Chandler is on the court versus when Zakai Zeigler is backing him up.
All of this is somewhat normal for a young guard; the problem is just that the margin for error for these players is basically zero. The thing I’m struggling with a bit is that Chandler is smaller than Sharife Cooper, and Cooper had an undeniably better freshman season than Chandler is having. Between the two, I would rather have Cooper. I had Cooper as a first-round grade in the 20s, but he went in the back half of the second round in large part due to size concerns. It’s really, really hard to be 6-foot, 170 pounds in the NBA. Teams are a bit more skeptical of Chandler in my conversations than the general public seems to be.
21. Philadelphia 76ers
Jaden Hardy | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
This is a drop for Hardy. But the consensus from the scouts I talked to who attended the G League Showcase was that Hardy looked like the third-best prospect there on the Ignite behind Beauchamp and Daniels. Beauchamp over Hardy wasn’t unanimous, but scouts were very unimpressed with Hardy’s play. His 17 points per game are the most among the Ignite’s prospects, but scoring isn’t the only skill that matters. He’s been highly inefficient, taking a bevy of horrible midrange jumpers and shooting just 35 percent from the field and 26 percent from 3. He has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio while averaging nearly four turnovers per game and has not been an effective defender. Right now, he looks like an undersized, inefficient combo guard. I’ve brought up Cam Thomas’ name quite a bit in conversations with scouts this season. Most scouts I’ve spoken with had better feelings about Thomas last year and his elite scoring ability coming out of LSU. Hardy is playing AAU ball in the G League right now, whereas Thomas at least got his buckets within the flow of the offense. Thomas also went 27th in last year’s draft. This year’s draft is more up in the air, and it’s possible Hardy has time to improve as the G League season kicks back off this month. Hardy needs to focus less on scoring and more on better decision-making.
22. Cleveland Cavaliers
Wendell Moore | 6-5 wing | 20 years old | Duke
Wendell Moore has been utterly outstanding across a lot of different aspects for Duke. He’s been the team’s most consistent initiator of offense due to his passing ability and his poise. He’s much more comfortable playing at his own pace this year, using his strength and improved handle to keep defenders where he wants them on his hip. He has improved as a shooter and scorer so far this season. He’s made 41 percent from 3 and has a 65.8 true-shooting percentage, the latter of which is a ridiculous number for his volume. On top of that, his defense has been outstanding this season on the perimeter. The big questions with Moore revolve around his shooting (the 41 percent mark from 3 is a substantial increase over what is currently a small sample) and his athleticism. What role does he play on offense if the jumper doesn’t translate, given that he’ll likely struggle to separate from opposing players at the NBA level without it? There is some former Warriors first-round pick Jacob Evans to this skill profile. Here’s the thing, though: I loved the idea of Jacob Evans back when he was entering the draft! The idea is still sound if the shooting is there. Evans’ shooting never came, but maybe Moore’s can?
23. Houston Rockets (via MIA)
JD Davison | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Alabama
JD Davison has had a fascinating season. On the plus side, he’s an absolutely electric athlete whose explosiveness both in terms of first step and bounce have translated at a high level. But the problems here are pretty evident. He’s a non-shooter right now, having hit just 28 percent from 3 overall and 2-for-14 on pull-up attempts so far. He’s also not really capable of truly running the show as a distributor for Alabama right now, as his handle and poise aren’t quite good enough at this point. He’s playing off the ball often next to Jahvon Quinerly and making plays attacking off the catch. He’s also a bit of a turnover machine right now too. I’m a bit lower on Davison than this, but teams do see real upside if they can get him into their system because he is truly an elite athlete from the lead guard spot. I’m not totally convinced he’s a one-and-done, but we’ll see where things settle in SEC play.
24. Memphis Grizzlies
Tari Eason | 6-8 forward | 20 years old | LSU
Tari Eason is one of the most difficult evaluations in college basketball right now. He’s one of the better defensive prospects in the country, a switchable Swiss Army knife who flies around in help, recovers like crazy out of screening actions, swats the hell out of weakside shots with impunity and jumps passing lanes to create open-court transition chances. He rebounds the ball well, then pushes to grab and go out in transition. He passes well and knows how to cut and move in half-court offense. The problem is that it’s unclear what his role will be on that end beyond that. His jumper is a bit of a mess mechanically, although there is some hope in terms of his touch (he has hit 80 percent from the foul line and the ball comes out pretty naturally). It’s just a strange, low release point with a bit of a catapult. I have him here, but NBA scouts are very split. Some see him as a top-20 guy; others see him as a top-45 guy.
25. Milwaukee Bucks
Harrison Ingram | 6-7 wing/forward | 19 years old | Stanford
Harrison Ingram has been statistically strong this year for a wing as a freshman, averaging 12 points, seven rebounds and three assists. Particularly, that passing ability has really stood out for a player who is 6-foot-7. He makes passes on the move and out of side pick-and-rolls and consistently processes the game well. It’s a legitimate plus skill. He doesn’t take many bad shots, and defensively, he’s generally solid if unspectacular. The only issue here is that Ingram has a tough combination of poor shooting mixed with poor explosiveness. The jumper is essential for him to have success at the next level as a role player. He’s worth developing, but he’s another one of these wings who could end up in the top 20 or could end up back at Stanford for his sophomore year.
26. Miami Heat (via BKN)
Mark Williams | 7-0 center | 20 years old | Duke
Mark Williams has been outstanding as a rim protector this season for Duke and has the look of a prototypical rim-running five. He completely controls the paint when he’s out there. He handles the glass with ease on both ends, corralling rebounds for extra possessions. He swats shots and contests them to apply pressure to the opposition. His 7-foot-5-plus wingspan is very difficult to finish over the top of when he’s out there. On offense, he rolls hard to the rim and makes himself available for lobs and dump-offs every time. It’s a limited role because his team is as good as it is, but I wouldn’t sleep on Williams turning into a lower-end NBA starting center and making a ton of money.
27. Chicago Bulls
Caleb Houstan | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Michigan
Caleb Houstan has had a tough year at Michigan. He’s averaging under 10 points with a 51.2 true-shooting percentage. Generally, he hasn’t looked all that comfortable or confident when Michigan has played good teams. The speed of the game has been a bit quick, and he’s rushed some shots. He looked to have potentially turned a corner against San Diego State and Nebraska with 14 and 17 points, but he’s followed it up with 18 points on 20 shots in the next three games. Houstan isn’t a crazy athlete, but he has good feel and comfort with the ball in his hands, so he needs to be able to operate at his own pace and make things happen. Right now, he looks more like a multi-year guy, but he stays here for now given that he has shown the occasional flash.
28. Memphis Grizzlies (via UTA)
Ousmane Dieng | 6-8 forward | 18 years old | New Zealand Breakers
Ousmane Dieng has been poor for the Breakers so far. He’s averaging three points per game while shooting 21 percent from the field. Playing in the NBL isn’t easy given that it’s a pro league that is tough and physical, and Dieng was not expected to necessarily have the kind of impact that someone like LaMelo Ball did, as his game was seen as more raw. At 6-foot-8, Dieng is a big-wing ballhandler who has shown some real upside as a passer and playmaker in the past. Indeed, in moments this year, that potential has come through despite the inefficiency. Still, his play this season has been pretty undeniably bad. There are teams that will be willing to write off this year to an extent, given those factors. I’ve talked to a few that definitely have more patience for him than others. But Dieng will need to step it up as the season progresses or otherwise risk falling to the point that he ends up being more of a 2023 draft guy. The Grizzlies have three first-round picks and can afford to stash one and pray.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder (via PHX)
Aminu Mohammed | 6-5 wing | 20 years old | Georgetown
Aminu Mohammed has been one of the most productive freshmen in college hoops this season despite playing for an undermanned Georgetown team. He’s averaging 15 points and nine rebounds per game as a physical, tough wing who constantly plays with an edge. He’s strong and stout at 210 pounds and plays with the kind of energy that forces his teammates to lift themselves. His best skill offensively right now is his driving. He’s a tough and physical on-ball defender but has some jumper questions in terms of consistency. There are a lot of comparisons to be had to someone like Lu Dort, who I was also a fan of in the 2019 NBA Draft and had a first-round grade on despite him going undrafted. Mohammed has potential to be a solid role player who brings energy off the bench, and the Thunder love guys like this.
30. Golden State Warriors
Bryce McGowens | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Nebraska
I don’t really love Bryce McGowens as a 2022 draft pick because I think he’s a ways away from helping an NBA team in terms of efficient, smart play. But his talent as a shot creator is real, and NBA teams are interested in his intersection of positional size at 6-foot-6 and playmaking ability. On one hand, he’s averaging 16 points and six assists. On the other hand, all of his best games have come against Nebraska’s worst competition. In Nebraska’s six games against what KenPom qualifies as Tier A or B competition, McGowens has posted a sub-40 true-shooting percentage and has shot 4-for-27 from 3 and under 40 percent from 2-point range. He also has not been particularly good defensively.
It’s worth noting that he’s playing next to a Stacy Patton-level black hole of basketball in Alonzo Verge, a talented, creative guard who seems at times almost solely interested in pounding the ball into the ground at the expense of any sort of ball movement. The team has been pretty substantially better with Kobe Webster in the game instead of Verge because the ball doesn’t stick. Per Pivot Analysis, in the minutes McGowens plays with Verge, the team averages 101.8 points per 100 possessions. In the minutes he plays with Webster and without Verge, Nebraska averages 115.4 points per 100. Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg has benched Verge a few times throughout the season despite his gaudy counting numbers — including in the team’s most recent game against Ohio State. It’s possible we don’t get a real read on McGowens until we see more minutes like that.
Second round
31. Orlando Magic: Hugo Besson | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | New Zealand Breakers
32. San Antonio Spurs (via DET): Caleb Love | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | North Carolina
33. Cleveland Cavaliers (via HOU): Jeremy Sochan | 6-8 forward | 18 years old | Baylor
34. Oklahoma City Thunder: Christian Koloko | 7-1 center | 21 years old | Arizona
35. Portland Trail Blazers: Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | UCLA
36. New Orleans Pelicans: Yannick Nzosa | 6-11 center | 18 years old | Unicaja Malaga
37. Cleveland Cavaliers (via SAS): Julian Champagnie | 6-8 forward | 20 years old | St. John’s
38. Orlando Magic (via IND): E.J. Liddell | 6-7 forward | 21 years old | Ohio State
39. Sacramento Kings: Jordan Hall | 6-8 guard | 19 years old | St. Joseph’s
40. Minnesota Timberwolves: Isaiah Mobley | 6-10 forward | 22 years old | USC
41. Atlanta Hawks: Ismaël Kamagate | 6-11 center | 21 years old | Paris Basketball
42. New York Knicks: Moussa Diabaté | 6-10 forward | 19 years old | Michigan
43. Golden State Warriors (via TOR): Walker Kessler | 7-0 center | 20 years old | Auburn
44. Boston Celtics: Jabari Walker | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | Colorado
45. Minnesota Timberwolves (via WAS): Gabriele Procida | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Fortitudo Bologna
46. San Antonio Spurs (via LAL): Keon Ellis | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Alabama
47. Dallas Mavericks: Hyunjung Lee | 6-7 wing | 21 years old | Davidson
48. Charlotte Hornets: Terrence Shannon Jr. | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Texas Tech
49. LA Clippers: Dereon Seabron | 6-7 wing | 21 years old | NC State
50. Minnesota Timberwolves (via DEN): Justin Lewis | 6-7 forward | 20 years old | Marquette
51. Miami Heat (via PHI): Roko Prkačin | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | Cibona
52. New Orleans Pelicans (via CLE): Johnny Juzang | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | UCLA
53. Utah Jazz (via MEM): Trevion Williams | 6-10 forward | 21 years old | Purdue
54. Detroit Pistons (via BKN): Drew Timme | 6-10 center | 21 years old | Gonzaga
55. Sacramento Kings (via CHI): Michael Foster | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | G League Ignite
56. New Orleans Pelicans (via UTA): Iverson Molinar | 6-3 guard | 22 years old | Mississippi State
57. Phoenix Suns: Gui Santos | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Minas
58. Golden State Warriors: Jahvon Quinerly | 6-2 guard | 23 years old | Alabama
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Ivey & Mathurin 
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
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Jabari Smith and Franz in Orlando 
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Jabari Smith and Franz in Orlando
They have some intriguing pieces down there - if they can put it together YIKES
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Trust me they won’t, probly end up picking 6th and drafting the dude from Wisconsin
Lol I wouldn’t be mad if they did but not a lot of faith in that franchise
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I don’t like it, looks stiff as hell
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What y’all doing with Mo?Jabari Smith and Franz in Orlando
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That dude from Iowa getting some love now. He killed Maryland the other night. Has an interesting game.
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Nothing yo a free agent so he’ll be somewhere else next year…Probly back home in NY or BK
Another wasted Magic pic
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HOU$TON
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I don't know Ty Ty's measurables but he has really long arms for a point guard.
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I was saying that last night - I remember SGA having a 7 foot wingspan and being amazed
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Damn I'm from BIG ten country and never heard of that Wisconsin kid, he can ball damn
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A lil torn on how to view this kid
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Johnny Davis:
PROSPECT OF THE WEEK: Johnny Davis, 6-5, sophomore, SG, Wisconsin
Relatively unheralded entering the season, Johnny Davis burst onto the draft scene with a strong December that included a 30-point outing in a win over Houston. But he’s in the news this week because of the exclamation point he added Jan. 3 over Purdue. Matched up against fellow sophomore lotto hopeful Jaden Ivey, Davis erupted for 37 points, 14 rebounds, two steals and two blocks to lead the Badgers to a road win against one of the nation’s top teams.
Davis is an interesting study for draftniks because he does most of his damage from midrange, relying on superior elevation on his jumper and the ability to stop on a dime to get into it. This, from Sunday night’s win over Maryland, is a very typical Davis possession:
At a basic level, he’s been insanely productive this way, averaging 38.6 points per 100 possessions (something partly disguised by Wisconsin’s sluggish pace). His peripheral numbers have also been solid; Davis punches way above his weight on the glass (11.9 percent rebound rate!), and his rates of steals and blocks are commensurate with an NBA talent. While he plays mostly as a scorer, his rates of assists and turnovers also are respectable.
The issue right now is his efficiency. Davis is able to draw his share of fouls, but he’s not quite a pure shooter (35.4 percent career from 3 on low volume) and rarely gets all the way to the cup, resulting in a meh 54.4 true shooting percentage.
Scouts will be asking themselves whether this is more reflective of ability (tough shot-making!) or inability (he rarely gets all the way to the rim).
In his defense, he does show some good first-step burst that makes one more hopeful of him getting rim chances in the more open NBA floor; watch here, for instance, as he wrong-foots Ivey with a jab step, rejects the screen and takes off into the lane to draw a foul.
Overall, however, Davis feels like he has more question marks than your typical Player of the Year candidate. Some will see a CJ McCollum-like ability to work the in-between game and trust that the 3-ball will come around; others will worry that the contested Big Ten looks will be more heavily contested at the next level and not drop as easily. The Purdue game was both breathtakingly good and fortuitously timed (a lot of scouts showed up for that one); Sunday’s escape in Maryland was a bit more troubling.
Davis is likely in the top 10 on most (if not all) draft boards right now — partly due to his own play and partly due to the perceived softness of this year’s draft after the first four picks. It’s still amazing given that he averaged 7.0 points a game as a freshman; regardless of where exactly Davis lands on draft night, his unexpected emergence has been one of the biggest stories of the 2022 draft class thus far.
Relatively unheralded entering the season, Johnny Davis burst onto the draft scene with a strong December that included a 30-point outing in a win over Houston. But he’s in the news this week because of the exclamation point he added Jan. 3 over Purdue. Matched up against fellow sophomore lotto hopeful Jaden Ivey, Davis erupted for 37 points, 14 rebounds, two steals and two blocks to lead the Badgers to a road win against one of the nation’s top teams.
Davis is an interesting study for draftniks because he does most of his damage from midrange, relying on superior elevation on his jumper and the ability to stop on a dime to get into it. This, from Sunday night’s win over Maryland, is a very typical Davis possession:
At a basic level, he’s been insanely productive this way, averaging 38.6 points per 100 possessions (something partly disguised by Wisconsin’s sluggish pace). His peripheral numbers have also been solid; Davis punches way above his weight on the glass (11.9 percent rebound rate!), and his rates of steals and blocks are commensurate with an NBA talent. While he plays mostly as a scorer, his rates of assists and turnovers also are respectable.
The issue right now is his efficiency. Davis is able to draw his share of fouls, but he’s not quite a pure shooter (35.4 percent career from 3 on low volume) and rarely gets all the way to the cup, resulting in a meh 54.4 true shooting percentage.
Scouts will be asking themselves whether this is more reflective of ability (tough shot-making!) or inability (he rarely gets all the way to the rim).
In his defense, he does show some good first-step burst that makes one more hopeful of him getting rim chances in the more open NBA floor; watch here, for instance, as he wrong-foots Ivey with a jab step, rejects the screen and takes off into the lane to draw a foul.
Overall, however, Davis feels like he has more question marks than your typical Player of the Year candidate. Some will see a CJ McCollum-like ability to work the in-between game and trust that the 3-ball will come around; others will worry that the contested Big Ten looks will be more heavily contested at the next level and not drop as easily. The Purdue game was both breathtakingly good and fortuitously timed (a lot of scouts showed up for that one); Sunday’s escape in Maryland was a bit more troubling.
Davis is likely in the top 10 on most (if not all) draft boards right now — partly due to his own play and partly due to the perceived softness of this year’s draft after the first four picks. It’s still amazing given that he averaged 7.0 points a game as a freshman; regardless of where exactly Davis lands on draft night, his unexpected emergence has been one of the biggest stories of the 2022 draft class thus far.
