T0INE
formerly toine2983
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Scoot's real name is Sterling and his siblings are named Onyx, Diamond, China and Jade. WHAT?
Sounds like a faction in NXT.
2025 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
- Start date
Sounds like a faction in NXT.
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
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superblytrife
Supporter
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Mike needs to pack it up already. So tired of his inability to see the big picture.
I'm already telling myself they're gonna screw this up so I won't be disappointed.
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HoopsHype has an accurate tracker for who prospects have "officially" worked out for:
hoopshype.com
2023 NBA draft workout tracker: Where have prospects gone?
One of the busiest times of the year for NBA front offices is here. With the 2023 draft rapidly approaching, hopeful prospects are traveling from city to city, showcasing their abilities in private…
hoopshype.com
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Wembys season over yet? Curious if he plays in summer league.
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Down 0-2 in the Finals vs Monaco. He has game three later today (best of five).
I don't expect him to play summer league with him wrapping up his season and FIBA World Cup in August.
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He’s not. Can’t remember which beat writer said but he’s not
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I'm not suggesting that Victor won't work out...but his shooting percentages across every single season he has played baffle me.
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I suspect his percentages get better in San Antonio…Shot selection and spacing should improve for him in the NBA
Everything in France was developmental at 1st then a showcase these past couple seasons so yo was shooting anything whenever
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I think the hesitation is mostly on Melo’s end…He might have to be the more off the ball one and guard wings/bigger players…that’s why they talk about “fit” when drafting Miller instead of him just being better than Scoot
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A week to go until the draft, who are "your" guys in the draft (besides Wembanyama)? Past beneficiaries of my likes include Christian Braun and Xavier Tillman (we won't discuss Killian Hayes or Malachi Flynn).
Cason Wallace
Taylor Hendricks
Kobe Bufkin
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Andre Jackson Jr.
Julian Strawther
Cason Wallace
Taylor Hendricks
Kobe Bufkin
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Andre Jackson Jr.
Julian Strawther
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Look at his catch and shoot numbers. If anything it’ll open up things even more for Melo. The situation is essentially the Paolo-Orlando one from last year.
The few nuggets I’ve gotten fed is essentially no one outside of Charlotte knows what they are going to do and that there’s a difference in opinion inside the building. Mitch places a high value on individual workouts-their socials posted nothing for the twins, scoot, or Miller. They’re purposefully keeping things tight lipped.
I still don’t see them passing on Scoot as of now
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
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Scoot Henderson
Keyonte George
Brandin Podziemski
Jordan Walsh
Jett Howard
Dariq Whitehead
Keyonte George
Brandin Podziemski
Jordan Walsh
Jett Howard
Dariq Whitehead
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NBA Mock Draft: Wembanyama to Spurs (obviously), but questions begin after that
We are about a week away from the 2023 NBA Draft. And with the NBA Finals finishing early, the focus across the league has shifted toward the draft and free agency with teams’ plans coming together quickly.
There is no drama at No. 1 overall, where Victor Wembanyama will be selected first by the San Antonio Spurs. But the real questions start at No. 2, where it’s hard to nail down what the Charlotte Hornets are thinking with their pick. The Trail Blazers at No. 3 also present some real questions, as Portland looks to weigh its future and its present with a relatively new front office and Damian Lillard. The Houston Rockets at No. 4 have a strong scouting department but also want to shift more into win-now territory. And at No. 5, the Detroit Pistons are armed with their two creators of the future — Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey — but still need a wing player and defensive help.
This is a fascinating draft loaded with depth and interesting players. In terms of tiers, my 2023 draft guide has breaks after the first, second, fifth, ninth and 16th players. The consensus league-wide — certainly not every team but trying to synthesize a big-picture view of where sources are — sees some separation after the first pick, third pick, fifth pick, ninth pick and around No. 20.
1. San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama | 7-4 center | 19 years old | Metropolitans 92
The Scout: The best draft prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James. It’s that simple. Wembanyama is the epitome of a franchise changer. As a teenager, he is leading the French League in rebounds and blocks and is second in points. It’s hard to overemphasize how amazing Wembanyama’s long-term potential is on both ends of the floor. He will immediately be the biggest, longest player in the NBA, which allows him to change the geometry of the court defensively. He has great instincts and recovery ability on that end. He’s doubling everybody else in the French League in blocks per game. But he also is a legitimate shot creator at center who can score off the bounce with creativity and hit shots with ease off of pull-ups or drives to the rim. He’s a terrific finisher inside because of his length and touch and is already starting to experiment with shots that could make him special, such as turnaround pull-ups, fake-spin shimmies and floater 3s. He is a historic prospect, one well within the tapestry of past elite center prospects such as Bill Walton, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, Ralph Sampson, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan and Anthony Davis.
The Fit: Wembanyama fits every single team. He is the fit. He’s the player you build around. San Antonio has found some strong players in the latter half of the lottery and the back portion of the first round, but the Spurs don’t have a star yet. Wembanyama slides everyone down a peg into more suitable roles. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson can be young, high-level wings who don’t get the top defensive assignments. Wembanyama will be a tremendous fit next to Jeremy Sochan in the frontcourt with Sochan as an all-around gap-filler who was productive as a teenage rookie. He’ll be able to be brought along slowly as a scorer as he continues to rework his shot. The Spurs got to transition beautifully from the Robinson era into the Duncan era and now perfectly slide into the Wembanyama era.
The Range: No. 1.
2. Charlotte Hornets
Scoot Henderson | 6-2 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Scout: Henderson is an explosive playmaker who has been seen as the likely No. 2 overall pick behind Wembanyama all season. In many other drafts, Henderson would be the No. 1 pick. He’s going to be a difficult problem for defenses to solve from the first day he hits the NBA because of how well-rounded he is in ball-screen actions. He can pull up and hit floaters, he can get to the rim and finish with authority or touch, he can play slow or fast, and he can make high-level passing reads. On top of that, he’s going to force the action in transition and drive easy points that way, as well as be the guy from day one who sets the tone for your organization as the top dog on the team because of his competitiveness and drive.
The Fit: I don’t think it’s a done deal that Charlotte picks Brandon Miller over Henderson. It has been presented as a specific lean toward Miller for a while, but I am not there yet, much in the same way I wasn’t there last year with calling Jabari Smith Jr.-to-Orlando-at-No. 1 a lock. General manager Mitch Kupchak is known to value the individual workout part of the pre-draft process, so I’ve never believed this would be done until well after they had everyone in, synthesized all of the information and came to a conclusion.
Last year at this time, other teams were working under the impression that Smith was going No. 1 to Orlando. Smoke screens exist. They’re not quite as prevalent as they are in the NFL Draft, but they certainly happen — especially with teams that tend to be quite buttoned up with information. Charlotte has been very quiet and is conducting a professional, well-organized process. It’s been tough to gather anything resembling a well-informed take on the Hornets’ current lean.
This is still entirely up in the air, but I’m going Henderson over Miller in part because I don’t buy the argument that Miller is unequivocally a better fit than Henderson. Henderson and LaMelo Ball play complementary games, with Henderson being more of a power scorer who can kill in the midrange and at the rim and Ball being more of a finesse distributor who can get buckets at the rim and from 3. These two work together. Miller would also work, but I wonder if people around the league are over-indexing on the idea that there is overlap between Henderson and Ball.
The Range: No. 2 to No. 3
3. Portland Trail Blazers
Brandon Miller | 6-8 wing | 20 years old | Alabama
The Scout: Miller was one of the best players in college basketball this past season. He averaged 19 points and nine rebounds and was even more dominant in SEC play. During conference play, he averaged 20 points while shooting 49 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3. Miller showcased just about everything teams look for in big-wing creators. He’s a terrific volume shooter, having made a high percentage from 3 on over seven attempts per game. He can handle the ball out of ball screens and string out mismatches, attack the basket and finish at the rim. Defensively, he’s a switchable player who isn’t quite an impact player on that end, but he’s solid and not going to get hunted. In high school, Miller also was seen as something of a midrange maestro with the ability to rise and knock down shots in the middle of the court. Around the league, Miller is seen as a potential top-two offensive option long term on a good NBA team.
The Fit: The biggest question with Portland is whether it keeps the pick. The Blazers will continue to evaluate all available options on the trade market. If something comes their way involving a younger star that not only allows them to pair somebody with Lillard but also potentially transition out of the Lillard era with that person and into the future, that seems like something the Blazers would consider. But it does not seem like Portland is set on moving the pick to get immediate help which also hinders its future either. The Blazers seem to be comfortable with selecting a player at No. 3, and I think they’d be ecstatic with Miller. He is ready to come in sooner rather than later and contribute, given the way he played this past season at Alabama. He’s an awesome complement for Jerami Grant in the frontcourt if they retain him.
The Range: No. 2 to 3
4. Houston Rockets
Cam Whitmore | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Villanova
The Scout: Whitmore has a ridiculous upside because he has an elite blend of explosiveness and strength. Coming in at about 230 pounds, Whitmore is an amazing leaper with a 40-inch vertical jump. He rises through contact powerfully and throws down around the basket. But there’s more than that. He is a shot creator who can knock down pull-up jumpers from behind the 3-point line. He has a good first step when attacking the basket. Defensively, he’s a very good on-ball defender with real switchability because of his strength and quickness. The main concern here is his overall feel as an offensive player. Whitmore had a historically low assist rate and consistently missed passing reads at Villanova. That’s where he needs to improve. But his ceiling is immense.
The Fit: This is where the draft starts to get fun. Whitmore is in play at No. 4. Around the league, there seems to be a mix of those who believe Whitmore will go here, and those who believe it’s more likely to be Amen Thompson. The Rockets are having a number of players in for workouts this week beyond just that duo and have yet to make a final decision. Having said that, the potential of James Harden joining the fold makes me slide with Whitmore. I’ve been consistent in having Whitmore as a top six player, and I would be surprised to see him fall outside of that range on draft night. For the Rockets, he also fits well with Jabari Smith Jr. as a physical driver who would complement Smith’s perimeter-based shooting game well.
Again though, this seems pretty up-in-the-air at this stage.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 6
5. Detroit Pistons
Jarace Walker | 6-7 forward | 19 years old | Houston
The Scout: Walker is a well-rounded forward/big prospect. He’s 6-7 without shoes with a 7-3 wingspan. He’s a terrific passer and playmaker, particularly as a short-roll weapon out of ball screens. Walker improved a bit as a shooter this past season, making 34.7 percent from 3, albeit on limited volume. But where he makes his mark is on defense. Walker is a tremendous, instinctive defensive player whose reactivity and basketball IQ make him an impactful help defender flying all across the court. He’s switchable as a man-to-man defender who can manage all but the quickest guards (and that includes sliding up onto centers because of his shredded 240-pound frame). There are some questions about how he’ll score effectively in the NBA if his jumper doesn’t come along, so he could be more of a rotation player if improvement doesn’t happen. But Walker will help you win.
The Fit: Walker is an interesting fit with the Pistons from a roster perspective. The team has been horrible over the last couple of seasons defensively, and Walker is certainly one of the more interesting defensive players in the class due to his ability to switch out onto perimeter players as well as be a havoc-inducer in help settings. He would immediately help a team desperate for positive play on that end. His fit in the frontcourt would be a bit precarious early while he works through his jumper. Walker isn’t the most confident shooter, but he has touch and upside as a scorer. If Jalen Duren uses his natural tools and improves his positioning and comfort level on defense, he and Walker could combine long term as a physical, tough duo to complement Ivey and Cunningham in the backcourt. If Whitmore was to fall to No. 5, it’s unclear how the Pistons would select between the two right now.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 9
6. Orlando Magic
Amen Thompson | 6-6 guard | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
The Scout: The first of the Thompson twins to go, Amen is the point guard of the duo. He’s an electric athlete in space and transition, has a great first step, is an elite leaper, has tremendous hang time and body control in the air. He attacks the basket aggressively. But he also is a very high-level passer and playmaker who can find his teammates from all sorts of angles and positions. Defensively, Thompson has some real mechanical issues to clean up, but his length and athleticism give him all sorts of upside, and he already makes consistent plays on that end. He needs more experience making reads in half-court settings — he didn’t get a chance at a lot of that with Overtime Elite, comparatively to other prospects. But his upside is enormous because of the pressure he puts on defenses.
The Fit: The Magic love guys who are long, athletic and have high upside. They also love the intersection of positional size with a high-level feel for the game. Thompson ticks many of those boxes. Imagine Thompson running the break and creating pressure on defenses with Franz Wagner filling gaps and Paolo Banchero trailing and crushing defenses still scrambling to find matchups. The team has both Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs, but Thompson’s upside exceeds both of them. He could even play with one of them if either can find a jump shot. Additionally, the idea of Thompson playing as a screener for Wagner and Banchero as primary ballhandlers to invert the offense would be fun. Switching that action wouldn’t work because Thompson has elite blow-by speed. Playing in drop coverage wouldn’t work because you can short-roll Thompson. This would be an incredibly fun outcome for the Magic.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 6
7. Indiana Pacers
Taylor Hendricks | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | UCF
The Scout: Hendricks is the biggest riser of this draft class. He’s over 6-9 in shoes and has a 7-1 wingspan. He’s an elite defensive player and has real athleticism. He slides his feet incredibly well as an on-ball defender and has switchability. Off the ball, he’s very impactful as a weakside rim protector who can fly over in help situations and block shots. And offensively, Hendricks was very valuable. He averaged 15.1 points and seven rebounds while shooting 39.4 percent from the field on real volume. Hendricks needs to improve as an offensive playmaker and ballhandler. But it’s easy to imagine Hendricks stepping into the NBA early and playing relatively early as a useful 3-and-D player while he continues to round out his game.
The Fit: The Pacers have a real need for defensive players. They were 26th in defensive rating this season despite getting nearly 2,000 minutes from an elite defensive center in Myles Turner. They need guys who can play strong help defense as well as provide switchable, aggressive on-ball defense. Hendricks does both and also ticks the box of being able to shoot — something the Pacers are said to be valuing throughout this process under coach Rick Carlisle. It’s hard to imagine a better complement to how Tyrese Haliburton plays than Hendricks as a potential roll threat, corner spot-up shooter or pick-and-pop threat. This is also seen as a potential landing spot for Walker if he were to fall to No. 7.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 10
8. Washington Wizards
Anthony Black | 6-6 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
The Scout: Black is maybe the smartest player in this draft class in terms of basketball IQ. He consistently makes the right play. Black averaged 13 points, five rebounds and four assists while shooting 45 percent from the field and is reliable as a bigger point guard. He’s also a terrific defensive player and one of the best in the class at the point of attack while also being switchable because of his size and strength. Black will make good decisions and will attack at both ends of the court.
The Fit: The Wizards are seen as one of the true wild cards on draft night due to their new front office. Michael Winger, the new president of Monumental Basketball, is renowned as sharp league-wide and has worked for Sam Presti and Lawrence Frank, both of whom are very well-respected. But Frank and Presti are executives who build their teams in very different ways and have different styles. What type of leader will Winger, who has mostly stayed in the shadows throughout his career, be? Sources around the league don’t have a great read yet, and they aren’t certain yet on what the team’s direction will be. New general manager Will Dawkins is extremely highly respected in scouting circles as a grinder who was heavily involved in the scouting process in Oklahoma City for over a decade. Additionally, how much of a role will new VP of player personnel Travis Schlenk have on draft night? He is seen as a tremendous evaluator as well. A lot of variables here make the Wizards very difficult to project.
I’ve gone with Black here, but I’ve gotten several different names that are real possibilities. Kentucky guard Cason Wallace is one name that has come up from a few different places, so it’s fair to say this is the start of his range. Ausar Thompson is another.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 10
9. Utah Jazz
Ausar Thompson | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
The Scout: Thompson is an elite athlete who impacts the game in many ways. He’s a strong defender who flies around in help as a good rim protector and playmaker in passing lanes. He’s a strong, technical on-ball defender. Offensively, he can get out on the break and score, and in the half court, he’s a sharp cutter and driver of the basketball. His passing is maybe my favorite skill, especially as a secondary ballhandler. As a finisher, Thompson has a terrific package of touch finishes and layups in addition to above-the-rim athleticism. The guy Thompson reminds me of most is Andre Iguodala, even down to the shooting questions that Thompson will have to work through early in his career. My bet is Thompson is an impact player because of how well-rounded his game is.
The Fit: The Jazz get to reshape their roster now following the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell deals. Danny Ainge rebuilt the Celtics roster with a lot of size on the wing and the perimeter (think Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams and others). Another word that comes up in conversations about what the Jazz are looking for on draft night is competitiveness. They seem to be placing a premium on players who get after it every night. My bet is they look for bigger wings and guards with that kind of mindset, especially with where the NBA is going. Thompson fits this billing.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 9
10. Dallas Mavericks
Cason Wallace | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
The Scout: Wallace is one of those dudes you just trust to be a hooper. He gets how to play and impact winning. He’s an elite defensive guard with incredible hands and disruptive hand-eye coordination. He’s extremely strong and can slide up the lineup because of how capable he is at getting his chest in front of players and cutting off their momentum. Offensively, I’d like to see him create off the bounce, but he’s good enough in ball screens and is strong as a catch-and-shoot weapon. He suffered a few injuries this past season, so teams want to learn a bit more about those, but Wallace is a very trustworthy player.
The Fit: Not many sources around the league currently believe this pick will stay put in Dallas. The Mavs seem to be exploring several different options, from trading down in the draft to trading out and acquiring a player who can help now. The goal for Dallas seems to be to add further depth, and the Mavs have several different ways they can accomplish that goal from this spot. But it takes two parties to tango. Until a deal is done, you never know. They may have a couple of players they wouldn’t be able to pass on if they were to fall on draft night. But agency sources around the league have also noted that Dallas is asking for workouts with players seen as more likely to go in the 20s and 30s even though they don’t have any picks after this one as of now.
I could slot any name here ranked in the No. 8 to No. 18 range given that I’m not sure Dallas will be making the pick. I’ve gone with Wallace, but this will almost assuredly change before draft night if Dallas finds a trade partner.
The Range: No. 8 to No. 15
11. Orlando Magic (via Chicago)
Gradey **** | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Kansas
The Scout: **** is maybe the best shooter in the class and drilled 40.3 percent of his six 3-point attempts per game as a freshman. The list of high-major true freshmen in the last 30 years, per Sports-Reference, to average 14 points and shoot 40 percent from 3 while taking at least 200 3s is limited. It’s ****, Gary Trent, Kevin Durant, D’Angelo Russell, O.J. Mayo, Tajuan Porter and Jamal Murray. That’s a great list, given that it’s five NBA starters and Porter, who is 5 foot 7. **** profiles as a long-term NBA starter with an upside. He has some on-ball defensive concerns, but he has great hands and is smart rotationally. He knows how to play.
The Fit: The Magic need shooting around Banchero and Wagner, especially if they’re going to continue with a backcourt core of Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs. I also gave the team Amen Thompson earlier, meaning that the need for shooting becomes even more important. The team finished in the bottom 10 in the NBA in 3-point rate, and the Magic shot just 34.6 percent this season. **** is an elite shooter. Don’t be surprised to see the team look at this spot as a way to shore up that weakness.
**** has a varied range on draft night. Some teams love his ability to nail shots, and others are a bit more questionable on the rest of his game. He’s not universally beloved. He’s more likely to hear his name called in the lottery than not, but some potential cascading effects could lead to him falling a few spots further than expected.
The Range: No. 11 to 19
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
Bilal Coulibaly | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Metropolitans 92
The Scout: Coulibaly is one of the most interesting mixes of immense upside and raw, unrefined polish to enter the NBA Draft in a long time. So many pieces of Coulibaly’s game make you want to buy in. His athletic tools are incredible and are exactly what every team across the league is looking for. He plays hard and unselfishly. In open spaces, it’s clear that, if he can tighten up his handle, his downhill speed and potential are real. He is willing to understand his role and play with a high motor, doing whatever it takes to get on the floor and help the team. It’s not an exaggeration to say his physical gifts give him a genuine upside to becoming an All-Defense player. His jump shot is far from broken. But he also doesn’t do enough on the court right now either. He’s an incredibly low-volume offensive player. His handle is going to take some time to develop for it to be functional in the NBA. His jumper, while far from broken, is probably a multi-year project in terms of getting him confident enough from NBA range at the speed that will be necessary to get it off at volume. And even on defense, he’s still kind of a step slow when he’s away from the ball. NBA teams are fascinated with Coulibaly, and he’s seen as a likely bet for someone in the top 16.
The Fit: For a couple of weeks now, rumors have swirled that Coulibaly has a lottery promise, to the point that any conversation I have with front-office executives working for back-half-of-the-lottery teams at least broaches the topic. The Thunder are the team I get asked about most regarding Coulibaly, but I think that is more based on reputation than actual intel. The Thunder have an alleged history of giving assurances to players (see Aleksej Pokuševski and Cam Payne). Coulibaly also ticks just about every single box the Thunder love in their players: terrific positional size, skill level and high-level character traits.
I don’t know that I buy a Thunder promise with Coulibaly specifically, but undeniably, there is real interest. Sam Presti just went over to France this week to watch Coulibaly and Metropolitans 92 take on Monaco in the French League championship series. You wouldn’t do that at this time of year as just a smoke screen.
The Range: No. 9 to No. 16
13. Toronto Raptors
Jalen Hood-Schifino | 6-4 wing | 20 years old | Indiana
The Scout: Hood-Schifino is a well-rounded, young prospect who won the Big Ten’s Rookie of the Year award this past season while averaging 13 points, four rebounds and four assists. He’s also a very strong on-ball defender with real size at nearly 6-6 in shoes. He’s shown great unselfishness and comfort in ball screens, with a penchant for knocking down midrange jumpers. However, he’s not a particularly adept shooter off the catch yet and will need some fine-tuning in that regard. If he can improve that and some decision-making questions, Hood-Schifino could get on the court a touch earlier than most one-and-dones. But the shooting needs to improve, as he made just 33.3 percent from 3.
The Fit: The Raptors have a lot of questions forthcoming in the backcourt. Fred VanVleet has said he’ll become a free agent, and Gary Trent Jr. can become one too. There is precious little depth behind them. The team needs to find more answers, even if it envisions Scottie Barnes as a potential primary creator. Hood-Schifino can play a bit on and off the ball, and I think he’s the rare one-and-done who could play early because of how impactful he is as a defender. He would give the Raptors some further flexibility in terms of their offseason decision-making. More of the names I’ve heard involved with the Raptors reside in the backcourt than the frontcourt, although they don’t seem to be expressly looking for guards either.
The Range: No. 10 to 20
14. New Orleans Pelicans
Dereck Lively II | 7-1 center| 19 years old | Duke
The Scout: Lively struggled to start the season, but by the end of it, there was not a more impactful defender in college basketball. He’s an elite rim protector who averaged 2.5 blocks this past season in 20 minutes. He defends ball screens well and can do so in a variety of different schemes. He can hard hedge and recover, he can drop, and he can play at the level. He’s mobile and runs the court very well. Offensively, he’s extremely limited right now, but Lively has immense tools with a 7-7 wingspan that portends potential to not just be a good defender but a great one.
The Fit: Few players have had a stronger pre-draft process than Lively. He had a standout pro day in front of several evaluators in Los Angeles. I’ve seen him as a sure bet to go in the top 20 from the start of the pre-draft process, but it took time for others to come around on that. The Pelicans need a center of the future defensively if they’re going to build a contender around Zion Williamson, as Jonas Valančiūnas is a free agent in 2024. Lively showcased some potential to shoot throughout his prep career and at his pro day, so if the Pelicans believe they can get him with Fred Vinson and have him work some magic, Lively would be the ideal player to pair with Williamson long term.
Shams Charania and Will Guillory reported earlier this week that the Pelicans are seen as a threat to move up in the draft, potentially to target Scoot Henderson if they can get into the top three. I don’t see a way they can do that unless they are willing to move Williamson or Brandon Ingram, even with their immense number of picks.
The Range: No. 10 to 19
We are about a week away from the 2023 NBA Draft. And with the NBA Finals finishing early, the focus across the league has shifted toward the draft and free agency with teams’ plans coming together quickly.
There is no drama at No. 1 overall, where Victor Wembanyama will be selected first by the San Antonio Spurs. But the real questions start at No. 2, where it’s hard to nail down what the Charlotte Hornets are thinking with their pick. The Trail Blazers at No. 3 also present some real questions, as Portland looks to weigh its future and its present with a relatively new front office and Damian Lillard. The Houston Rockets at No. 4 have a strong scouting department but also want to shift more into win-now territory. And at No. 5, the Detroit Pistons are armed with their two creators of the future — Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey — but still need a wing player and defensive help.
This is a fascinating draft loaded with depth and interesting players. In terms of tiers, my 2023 draft guide has breaks after the first, second, fifth, ninth and 16th players. The consensus league-wide — certainly not every team but trying to synthesize a big-picture view of where sources are — sees some separation after the first pick, third pick, fifth pick, ninth pick and around No. 20.
1. San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama | 7-4 center | 19 years old | Metropolitans 92
The Scout: The best draft prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James. It’s that simple. Wembanyama is the epitome of a franchise changer. As a teenager, he is leading the French League in rebounds and blocks and is second in points. It’s hard to overemphasize how amazing Wembanyama’s long-term potential is on both ends of the floor. He will immediately be the biggest, longest player in the NBA, which allows him to change the geometry of the court defensively. He has great instincts and recovery ability on that end. He’s doubling everybody else in the French League in blocks per game. But he also is a legitimate shot creator at center who can score off the bounce with creativity and hit shots with ease off of pull-ups or drives to the rim. He’s a terrific finisher inside because of his length and touch and is already starting to experiment with shots that could make him special, such as turnaround pull-ups, fake-spin shimmies and floater 3s. He is a historic prospect, one well within the tapestry of past elite center prospects such as Bill Walton, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, Ralph Sampson, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan and Anthony Davis.
The Fit: Wembanyama fits every single team. He is the fit. He’s the player you build around. San Antonio has found some strong players in the latter half of the lottery and the back portion of the first round, but the Spurs don’t have a star yet. Wembanyama slides everyone down a peg into more suitable roles. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson can be young, high-level wings who don’t get the top defensive assignments. Wembanyama will be a tremendous fit next to Jeremy Sochan in the frontcourt with Sochan as an all-around gap-filler who was productive as a teenage rookie. He’ll be able to be brought along slowly as a scorer as he continues to rework his shot. The Spurs got to transition beautifully from the Robinson era into the Duncan era and now perfectly slide into the Wembanyama era.
The Range: No. 1.
2. Charlotte Hornets
Scoot Henderson | 6-2 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Scout: Henderson is an explosive playmaker who has been seen as the likely No. 2 overall pick behind Wembanyama all season. In many other drafts, Henderson would be the No. 1 pick. He’s going to be a difficult problem for defenses to solve from the first day he hits the NBA because of how well-rounded he is in ball-screen actions. He can pull up and hit floaters, he can get to the rim and finish with authority or touch, he can play slow or fast, and he can make high-level passing reads. On top of that, he’s going to force the action in transition and drive easy points that way, as well as be the guy from day one who sets the tone for your organization as the top dog on the team because of his competitiveness and drive.
The Fit: I don’t think it’s a done deal that Charlotte picks Brandon Miller over Henderson. It has been presented as a specific lean toward Miller for a while, but I am not there yet, much in the same way I wasn’t there last year with calling Jabari Smith Jr.-to-Orlando-at-No. 1 a lock. General manager Mitch Kupchak is known to value the individual workout part of the pre-draft process, so I’ve never believed this would be done until well after they had everyone in, synthesized all of the information and came to a conclusion.
Last year at this time, other teams were working under the impression that Smith was going No. 1 to Orlando. Smoke screens exist. They’re not quite as prevalent as they are in the NFL Draft, but they certainly happen — especially with teams that tend to be quite buttoned up with information. Charlotte has been very quiet and is conducting a professional, well-organized process. It’s been tough to gather anything resembling a well-informed take on the Hornets’ current lean.
This is still entirely up in the air, but I’m going Henderson over Miller in part because I don’t buy the argument that Miller is unequivocally a better fit than Henderson. Henderson and LaMelo Ball play complementary games, with Henderson being more of a power scorer who can kill in the midrange and at the rim and Ball being more of a finesse distributor who can get buckets at the rim and from 3. These two work together. Miller would also work, but I wonder if people around the league are over-indexing on the idea that there is overlap between Henderson and Ball.
The Range: No. 2 to No. 3
3. Portland Trail Blazers
Brandon Miller | 6-8 wing | 20 years old | Alabama
The Scout: Miller was one of the best players in college basketball this past season. He averaged 19 points and nine rebounds and was even more dominant in SEC play. During conference play, he averaged 20 points while shooting 49 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3. Miller showcased just about everything teams look for in big-wing creators. He’s a terrific volume shooter, having made a high percentage from 3 on over seven attempts per game. He can handle the ball out of ball screens and string out mismatches, attack the basket and finish at the rim. Defensively, he’s a switchable player who isn’t quite an impact player on that end, but he’s solid and not going to get hunted. In high school, Miller also was seen as something of a midrange maestro with the ability to rise and knock down shots in the middle of the court. Around the league, Miller is seen as a potential top-two offensive option long term on a good NBA team.
The Fit: The biggest question with Portland is whether it keeps the pick. The Blazers will continue to evaluate all available options on the trade market. If something comes their way involving a younger star that not only allows them to pair somebody with Lillard but also potentially transition out of the Lillard era with that person and into the future, that seems like something the Blazers would consider. But it does not seem like Portland is set on moving the pick to get immediate help which also hinders its future either. The Blazers seem to be comfortable with selecting a player at No. 3, and I think they’d be ecstatic with Miller. He is ready to come in sooner rather than later and contribute, given the way he played this past season at Alabama. He’s an awesome complement for Jerami Grant in the frontcourt if they retain him.
The Range: No. 2 to 3
4. Houston Rockets
Cam Whitmore | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Villanova
The Scout: Whitmore has a ridiculous upside because he has an elite blend of explosiveness and strength. Coming in at about 230 pounds, Whitmore is an amazing leaper with a 40-inch vertical jump. He rises through contact powerfully and throws down around the basket. But there’s more than that. He is a shot creator who can knock down pull-up jumpers from behind the 3-point line. He has a good first step when attacking the basket. Defensively, he’s a very good on-ball defender with real switchability because of his strength and quickness. The main concern here is his overall feel as an offensive player. Whitmore had a historically low assist rate and consistently missed passing reads at Villanova. That’s where he needs to improve. But his ceiling is immense.
The Fit: This is where the draft starts to get fun. Whitmore is in play at No. 4. Around the league, there seems to be a mix of those who believe Whitmore will go here, and those who believe it’s more likely to be Amen Thompson. The Rockets are having a number of players in for workouts this week beyond just that duo and have yet to make a final decision. Having said that, the potential of James Harden joining the fold makes me slide with Whitmore. I’ve been consistent in having Whitmore as a top six player, and I would be surprised to see him fall outside of that range on draft night. For the Rockets, he also fits well with Jabari Smith Jr. as a physical driver who would complement Smith’s perimeter-based shooting game well.
Again though, this seems pretty up-in-the-air at this stage.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 6
5. Detroit Pistons
Jarace Walker | 6-7 forward | 19 years old | Houston
The Scout: Walker is a well-rounded forward/big prospect. He’s 6-7 without shoes with a 7-3 wingspan. He’s a terrific passer and playmaker, particularly as a short-roll weapon out of ball screens. Walker improved a bit as a shooter this past season, making 34.7 percent from 3, albeit on limited volume. But where he makes his mark is on defense. Walker is a tremendous, instinctive defensive player whose reactivity and basketball IQ make him an impactful help defender flying all across the court. He’s switchable as a man-to-man defender who can manage all but the quickest guards (and that includes sliding up onto centers because of his shredded 240-pound frame). There are some questions about how he’ll score effectively in the NBA if his jumper doesn’t come along, so he could be more of a rotation player if improvement doesn’t happen. But Walker will help you win.
The Fit: Walker is an interesting fit with the Pistons from a roster perspective. The team has been horrible over the last couple of seasons defensively, and Walker is certainly one of the more interesting defensive players in the class due to his ability to switch out onto perimeter players as well as be a havoc-inducer in help settings. He would immediately help a team desperate for positive play on that end. His fit in the frontcourt would be a bit precarious early while he works through his jumper. Walker isn’t the most confident shooter, but he has touch and upside as a scorer. If Jalen Duren uses his natural tools and improves his positioning and comfort level on defense, he and Walker could combine long term as a physical, tough duo to complement Ivey and Cunningham in the backcourt. If Whitmore was to fall to No. 5, it’s unclear how the Pistons would select between the two right now.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 9
6. Orlando Magic
Amen Thompson | 6-6 guard | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
The Scout: The first of the Thompson twins to go, Amen is the point guard of the duo. He’s an electric athlete in space and transition, has a great first step, is an elite leaper, has tremendous hang time and body control in the air. He attacks the basket aggressively. But he also is a very high-level passer and playmaker who can find his teammates from all sorts of angles and positions. Defensively, Thompson has some real mechanical issues to clean up, but his length and athleticism give him all sorts of upside, and he already makes consistent plays on that end. He needs more experience making reads in half-court settings — he didn’t get a chance at a lot of that with Overtime Elite, comparatively to other prospects. But his upside is enormous because of the pressure he puts on defenses.
The Fit: The Magic love guys who are long, athletic and have high upside. They also love the intersection of positional size with a high-level feel for the game. Thompson ticks many of those boxes. Imagine Thompson running the break and creating pressure on defenses with Franz Wagner filling gaps and Paolo Banchero trailing and crushing defenses still scrambling to find matchups. The team has both Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs, but Thompson’s upside exceeds both of them. He could even play with one of them if either can find a jump shot. Additionally, the idea of Thompson playing as a screener for Wagner and Banchero as primary ballhandlers to invert the offense would be fun. Switching that action wouldn’t work because Thompson has elite blow-by speed. Playing in drop coverage wouldn’t work because you can short-roll Thompson. This would be an incredibly fun outcome for the Magic.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 6
7. Indiana Pacers
Taylor Hendricks | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | UCF
The Scout: Hendricks is the biggest riser of this draft class. He’s over 6-9 in shoes and has a 7-1 wingspan. He’s an elite defensive player and has real athleticism. He slides his feet incredibly well as an on-ball defender and has switchability. Off the ball, he’s very impactful as a weakside rim protector who can fly over in help situations and block shots. And offensively, Hendricks was very valuable. He averaged 15.1 points and seven rebounds while shooting 39.4 percent from the field on real volume. Hendricks needs to improve as an offensive playmaker and ballhandler. But it’s easy to imagine Hendricks stepping into the NBA early and playing relatively early as a useful 3-and-D player while he continues to round out his game.
The Fit: The Pacers have a real need for defensive players. They were 26th in defensive rating this season despite getting nearly 2,000 minutes from an elite defensive center in Myles Turner. They need guys who can play strong help defense as well as provide switchable, aggressive on-ball defense. Hendricks does both and also ticks the box of being able to shoot — something the Pacers are said to be valuing throughout this process under coach Rick Carlisle. It’s hard to imagine a better complement to how Tyrese Haliburton plays than Hendricks as a potential roll threat, corner spot-up shooter or pick-and-pop threat. This is also seen as a potential landing spot for Walker if he were to fall to No. 7.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 10
8. Washington Wizards
Anthony Black | 6-6 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
The Scout: Black is maybe the smartest player in this draft class in terms of basketball IQ. He consistently makes the right play. Black averaged 13 points, five rebounds and four assists while shooting 45 percent from the field and is reliable as a bigger point guard. He’s also a terrific defensive player and one of the best in the class at the point of attack while also being switchable because of his size and strength. Black will make good decisions and will attack at both ends of the court.
The Fit: The Wizards are seen as one of the true wild cards on draft night due to their new front office. Michael Winger, the new president of Monumental Basketball, is renowned as sharp league-wide and has worked for Sam Presti and Lawrence Frank, both of whom are very well-respected. But Frank and Presti are executives who build their teams in very different ways and have different styles. What type of leader will Winger, who has mostly stayed in the shadows throughout his career, be? Sources around the league don’t have a great read yet, and they aren’t certain yet on what the team’s direction will be. New general manager Will Dawkins is extremely highly respected in scouting circles as a grinder who was heavily involved in the scouting process in Oklahoma City for over a decade. Additionally, how much of a role will new VP of player personnel Travis Schlenk have on draft night? He is seen as a tremendous evaluator as well. A lot of variables here make the Wizards very difficult to project.
I’ve gone with Black here, but I’ve gotten several different names that are real possibilities. Kentucky guard Cason Wallace is one name that has come up from a few different places, so it’s fair to say this is the start of his range. Ausar Thompson is another.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 10
9. Utah Jazz
Ausar Thompson | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
The Scout: Thompson is an elite athlete who impacts the game in many ways. He’s a strong defender who flies around in help as a good rim protector and playmaker in passing lanes. He’s a strong, technical on-ball defender. Offensively, he can get out on the break and score, and in the half court, he’s a sharp cutter and driver of the basketball. His passing is maybe my favorite skill, especially as a secondary ballhandler. As a finisher, Thompson has a terrific package of touch finishes and layups in addition to above-the-rim athleticism. The guy Thompson reminds me of most is Andre Iguodala, even down to the shooting questions that Thompson will have to work through early in his career. My bet is Thompson is an impact player because of how well-rounded his game is.
The Fit: The Jazz get to reshape their roster now following the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell deals. Danny Ainge rebuilt the Celtics roster with a lot of size on the wing and the perimeter (think Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams and others). Another word that comes up in conversations about what the Jazz are looking for on draft night is competitiveness. They seem to be placing a premium on players who get after it every night. My bet is they look for bigger wings and guards with that kind of mindset, especially with where the NBA is going. Thompson fits this billing.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 9
10. Dallas Mavericks
Cason Wallace | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
The Scout: Wallace is one of those dudes you just trust to be a hooper. He gets how to play and impact winning. He’s an elite defensive guard with incredible hands and disruptive hand-eye coordination. He’s extremely strong and can slide up the lineup because of how capable he is at getting his chest in front of players and cutting off their momentum. Offensively, I’d like to see him create off the bounce, but he’s good enough in ball screens and is strong as a catch-and-shoot weapon. He suffered a few injuries this past season, so teams want to learn a bit more about those, but Wallace is a very trustworthy player.
The Fit: Not many sources around the league currently believe this pick will stay put in Dallas. The Mavs seem to be exploring several different options, from trading down in the draft to trading out and acquiring a player who can help now. The goal for Dallas seems to be to add further depth, and the Mavs have several different ways they can accomplish that goal from this spot. But it takes two parties to tango. Until a deal is done, you never know. They may have a couple of players they wouldn’t be able to pass on if they were to fall on draft night. But agency sources around the league have also noted that Dallas is asking for workouts with players seen as more likely to go in the 20s and 30s even though they don’t have any picks after this one as of now.
I could slot any name here ranked in the No. 8 to No. 18 range given that I’m not sure Dallas will be making the pick. I’ve gone with Wallace, but this will almost assuredly change before draft night if Dallas finds a trade partner.
The Range: No. 8 to No. 15
11. Orlando Magic (via Chicago)
Gradey **** | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Kansas
The Scout: **** is maybe the best shooter in the class and drilled 40.3 percent of his six 3-point attempts per game as a freshman. The list of high-major true freshmen in the last 30 years, per Sports-Reference, to average 14 points and shoot 40 percent from 3 while taking at least 200 3s is limited. It’s ****, Gary Trent, Kevin Durant, D’Angelo Russell, O.J. Mayo, Tajuan Porter and Jamal Murray. That’s a great list, given that it’s five NBA starters and Porter, who is 5 foot 7. **** profiles as a long-term NBA starter with an upside. He has some on-ball defensive concerns, but he has great hands and is smart rotationally. He knows how to play.
The Fit: The Magic need shooting around Banchero and Wagner, especially if they’re going to continue with a backcourt core of Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs. I also gave the team Amen Thompson earlier, meaning that the need for shooting becomes even more important. The team finished in the bottom 10 in the NBA in 3-point rate, and the Magic shot just 34.6 percent this season. **** is an elite shooter. Don’t be surprised to see the team look at this spot as a way to shore up that weakness.
**** has a varied range on draft night. Some teams love his ability to nail shots, and others are a bit more questionable on the rest of his game. He’s not universally beloved. He’s more likely to hear his name called in the lottery than not, but some potential cascading effects could lead to him falling a few spots further than expected.
The Range: No. 11 to 19
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
Bilal Coulibaly | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Metropolitans 92
The Scout: Coulibaly is one of the most interesting mixes of immense upside and raw, unrefined polish to enter the NBA Draft in a long time. So many pieces of Coulibaly’s game make you want to buy in. His athletic tools are incredible and are exactly what every team across the league is looking for. He plays hard and unselfishly. In open spaces, it’s clear that, if he can tighten up his handle, his downhill speed and potential are real. He is willing to understand his role and play with a high motor, doing whatever it takes to get on the floor and help the team. It’s not an exaggeration to say his physical gifts give him a genuine upside to becoming an All-Defense player. His jump shot is far from broken. But he also doesn’t do enough on the court right now either. He’s an incredibly low-volume offensive player. His handle is going to take some time to develop for it to be functional in the NBA. His jumper, while far from broken, is probably a multi-year project in terms of getting him confident enough from NBA range at the speed that will be necessary to get it off at volume. And even on defense, he’s still kind of a step slow when he’s away from the ball. NBA teams are fascinated with Coulibaly, and he’s seen as a likely bet for someone in the top 16.
The Fit: For a couple of weeks now, rumors have swirled that Coulibaly has a lottery promise, to the point that any conversation I have with front-office executives working for back-half-of-the-lottery teams at least broaches the topic. The Thunder are the team I get asked about most regarding Coulibaly, but I think that is more based on reputation than actual intel. The Thunder have an alleged history of giving assurances to players (see Aleksej Pokuševski and Cam Payne). Coulibaly also ticks just about every single box the Thunder love in their players: terrific positional size, skill level and high-level character traits.
I don’t know that I buy a Thunder promise with Coulibaly specifically, but undeniably, there is real interest. Sam Presti just went over to France this week to watch Coulibaly and Metropolitans 92 take on Monaco in the French League championship series. You wouldn’t do that at this time of year as just a smoke screen.
The Range: No. 9 to No. 16
13. Toronto Raptors
Jalen Hood-Schifino | 6-4 wing | 20 years old | Indiana
The Scout: Hood-Schifino is a well-rounded, young prospect who won the Big Ten’s Rookie of the Year award this past season while averaging 13 points, four rebounds and four assists. He’s also a very strong on-ball defender with real size at nearly 6-6 in shoes. He’s shown great unselfishness and comfort in ball screens, with a penchant for knocking down midrange jumpers. However, he’s not a particularly adept shooter off the catch yet and will need some fine-tuning in that regard. If he can improve that and some decision-making questions, Hood-Schifino could get on the court a touch earlier than most one-and-dones. But the shooting needs to improve, as he made just 33.3 percent from 3.
The Fit: The Raptors have a lot of questions forthcoming in the backcourt. Fred VanVleet has said he’ll become a free agent, and Gary Trent Jr. can become one too. There is precious little depth behind them. The team needs to find more answers, even if it envisions Scottie Barnes as a potential primary creator. Hood-Schifino can play a bit on and off the ball, and I think he’s the rare one-and-done who could play early because of how impactful he is as a defender. He would give the Raptors some further flexibility in terms of their offseason decision-making. More of the names I’ve heard involved with the Raptors reside in the backcourt than the frontcourt, although they don’t seem to be expressly looking for guards either.
The Range: No. 10 to 20
14. New Orleans Pelicans
Dereck Lively II | 7-1 center| 19 years old | Duke
The Scout: Lively struggled to start the season, but by the end of it, there was not a more impactful defender in college basketball. He’s an elite rim protector who averaged 2.5 blocks this past season in 20 minutes. He defends ball screens well and can do so in a variety of different schemes. He can hard hedge and recover, he can drop, and he can play at the level. He’s mobile and runs the court very well. Offensively, he’s extremely limited right now, but Lively has immense tools with a 7-7 wingspan that portends potential to not just be a good defender but a great one.
The Fit: Few players have had a stronger pre-draft process than Lively. He had a standout pro day in front of several evaluators in Los Angeles. I’ve seen him as a sure bet to go in the top 20 from the start of the pre-draft process, but it took time for others to come around on that. The Pelicans need a center of the future defensively if they’re going to build a contender around Zion Williamson, as Jonas Valančiūnas is a free agent in 2024. Lively showcased some potential to shoot throughout his prep career and at his pro day, so if the Pelicans believe they can get him with Fred Vinson and have him work some magic, Lively would be the ideal player to pair with Williamson long term.
Shams Charania and Will Guillory reported earlier this week that the Pelicans are seen as a threat to move up in the draft, potentially to target Scoot Henderson if they can get into the top three. I don’t see a way they can do that unless they are willing to move Williamson or Brandon Ingram, even with their immense number of picks.
The Range: No. 10 to 19
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15. Atlanta Hawks
Nick Smith Jr. | 6-4 combo guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
The Scout: Smith was not particularly impressive at Arkansas this past season. But there is context behind that, as he dealt with a knee injury early in the season and was surrounded by a roster of non-shooters who stopped him from being able to attack the rim. Still, Smith shot just 37 percent from the field, 33 percent from 3 and was poor defensively and that resulted in him getting benched at times in the NCAA Tournament. Smith was a top-three recruit in the class last season and has real off-ball scoring creativity. His high school tape is quite strong. His range is a bit wide, but I’m willing to bet that last season is a bit more of an aberration than people think.
The Fit: The Hawks took fewer 3s than anyone in the NBA this season on a per-shot basis and put very little pressure on the rim. Despite this, they were still a top 10 offense because Trae Young is that good of a creative force. Now, with Quin Snyder getting a full season, they need more shooters and diverse offensive threats. With Bogdan Bogdanović’s injury history (missing about 20 games per season) and Dejounte Murray’s contract running out at the end of next season, it might make sense for them to look toward the combo guard market in this draft class, which is diverse in terms of skill set. Smith ticks a lot of boxes, even if he needs to improve drastically on defense.
The Range: No. 10 to No. 25
16. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota)
Kobe Bufkin | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Michigan
The Scout: Bufkin has risen through the pre-draft process. He’s one of my favorite prospects and the evidence is there. Over his last 12 games, he averaged 17 points per game in Big Ten play while shooting 52 percent from the field, 45 percent from 3 and 89 percent from the line. He also grabbed six rebounds, had three assists and about two steals. That’s the point in the year when he started to get more usage consistently. He averaged only 9.6 shots per game in Michigan’s first 18 games as the Wolverines used more Hunter Dickinson/Jett Howard sets. In those last 15, Bufkin took nearly 13 shots per game and got far more high-leverage opportunities. There just aren’t many holes in his game. He’s a great finisher and a good shooter from the midrange and 3. He makes high-level passes, is strong on the ball, can help defensively and is well-rounded.
The Fit: The Jazz shouldn’t have a specific type. The goal should merely be to acquire the best talent. Bufkin ticks a ton of boxes for them in terms of size and ability to play both on and off the ball, which means they won’t have to limit themselves in any way while building the rest of the roster out. He’s seen as a possibility to be picked everywhere from No. 10 on down, so it’s hard for me to see a world where he gets past No. 17 or so. He has a shot to end up in the lottery.
The Range: No. 10 to No. 17
17. Los Angeles Lakers
Jett Howard | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Michigan
The Scout: Howard is a tremendous shot-maker, which allows him to be a genuine threat in NBA-caliber actions. Michigan ran a ton of Zoom and Pistol actions, using him in dribble handoffs. The Wolverines ran him off screening actions regularly trying to get him loose. He’s a teenager who averaged 14 points and hit 37 percent from 3 on high volume and also showcased the ability to relocate and score from the midrange. Here’s the issue: Michigan was about seven points per 100 possessions better when Howard was off the court because he was such a negative defender. He can’t move in space and also isn’t strong enough now to guard down the lineup. He has a ways to go on that end.
The Fit: The key skill that works best with LeBron James offensively is shooting. Howard has the potential to be a tremendous floor spacer, so his fit with the Lakers would be good. Also, don’t be stunned to see the Lakers look to trade down. The team only has four players guaranteed to be under contract for next season. Getting some cost-controlled depth would help them with their plans, and there are several teams, as we’ll discuss, that are exploring consolidating some pick capital.
The Range: No. 10 to 25
18. Miami Heat
Jordan Hawkins | 6-4 wing | 21 years old | Connecticut
The Scout: Hawkins has a case as arguably the best movement shooter in the class. UConn had him sprint off screening actions, using his pristine shooting mechanics and ability to stop on a dime to get open and can 3s. He averaged 16 points and was a critical piece of the national champion Huskies, keying their perimeter attack with how much teams had to respect his gravitational force. Hawkins also improved a bit off the bounce this past season, becoming an impactful, effective attacker of closeouts. He works defensively, but this is where his lack of strength comes in. Hawkins is extremely skinny and will need to put on some weight in the coming years. But he’s an elite shooter and those guys tend to work out.
The Fit: Guys who can fly around and shoot in creative offensive sets are always valuable in Miami due to how the offense operates. Can you imagine Hawkins flying off dribble-handoff actions with Bam Adebayo? A big piece of the Heat’s run to the NBA Finals was their ability to consistently nail shots, but it remains to be seen how sustainable that is given that they finished just 27th in 3-point percentage in the regular season. Hawkins would give their offense a huge boost, and no team has done better work maximizing its players’ bodies than the Heat in recent years. His range starts at No. 12 with the Thunder, so he could be off the board by this point. The Jazz, Lakers, Heat and Warriors are all also thought to have some degree of interest in the No. 16 to No. 19 range.
The Range: No. 12 to No. 25
19. Golden State Warriors
Kris Murray | 6-8 wing | 22 years old | Iowa
The Scout: Murray isn’t quite his brother in terms of effectiveness. He’s not the shooter Keegan is and is not quite as athletic. But he’s a 6-8, well-rounded wing who stepped into Keegan’s role at Iowa and averaged 20 points, eight rebounds and two assists per game. And across the league, teams continue to look for wings with real size and athleticism who can immediately step in and play. At 22 years old, Murray figures to provide genuine value within the first two years of his career as a rotation three/four with a starter’s upside.
The Fit: The Warriors have tended to draft younger in recent years. All of Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, Patrick Baldwin Jr., James Wiseman, Nico Mannion, Alen Smailagić and Ryan Rollins were teenagers when the Dubs picked them, and Jordan Poole turned 20 one week before being picked. Typically, I tend to buy into the idea that the best indicator of future drafts is what front offices have done in the past. But the current thought circulating among sources is that the team may look to go a bit older and more experienced after not getting a ton of present-day value out of its selections in the last three years. Think of guys like Murray, Hawkins and Jaime Jaquez. Murray would be a solid, athletic combo forward who should be able to play earlier rather than later.
The Range: No. 12 to 24
20. Houston Rockets (via LA Clippers)
Noah Clowney | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Alabama
The Scout: NBA personnel love guys who are big, young, defensively conscious and have the potential to shoot. Clowney ticks just about every single one of those boxes. He played this entire season at 18 years old and is 6-10 with about a 7-3 wingspan. He covers ground on the defensive end at a high level. He rebounds and took over four 3-point attempts per game this past season. Now, Clowney did not make a ton of those 3s (28 percent), but the shot is clean and workable. I’m not quite as high on him as the rest of the NBA, as I worry a little bit about him guarding in space with how high his hips are and how he can cut off guards. But he has great help instincts, and as his body fills out, I wonder if he can keep improving his mobility overall. He’s a first-round talent, but he’ll take some time.
The Fit: The Rockets got this pick in a smart trade with the LA Clippers that saw them move up 10 draft slots into the middle of the first round in exchange for Eric Gordon. That allowed them to enter a different tier of players who will be available. Under the Rafael Stone regime, they have tended to take the best player available. I would imagine that will be the case at No. 20, as the Rockets are still far enough away from competing that it’s worth them just adding talent. Sources around the league have struggled to slot a player here. Clowney makes a lot of sense as a defensive-minded forward who has the potential to shoot and maybe long term could play in modern lineups with Jabari Smith Jr. given his length.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
21. Brooklyn Nets (via Phoenix)
Dariq Whitehead | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Duke
The Scout: A bet on Whitehead is a bet on the shooting upside he showcased this past season — making 42 percent from 3 — as well as the upside he’d showcased at the high school level. His performance at Duke was not that of a first-round pick. He couldn’t pressure the rim and struggled defensively. But context is important. Whitehead suffered a fifth metatarsal foot injury in the summer, which extended into the preseason and kept him out of the team’s first three games in addition to missing valuable practice time. He had a follow-up surgery in June to repair the foot that did not heal properly the first time. This had an enormous impact on Whitehead’s season, as he looked to be nowhere near the athlete at Duke that he was in high school when he was undeniably one of the best players in his class. This is a very difficult situation to judge, and due to the medical factor, his range is quite wide.
The Fit: The Nets need offensive players. More than anything, they need creators who can get their own offense. Whitehead has the potential to do that if he gets some of the athleticism back that he lost this season dealing with the foot injury. It’s also worth noting that Martin O’Malley, the Nets’ orthopedist, did the follow-up surgery on Whitehead’s foot. It comes down to whether the Nets are high on Whitehead. We’ll find out on draft night, but he ticks a lot of the boxes they are looking for as a shooter and potential scorer.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
22. Brooklyn Nets
Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 6-6 guard | 22 years old | UCLA
The Scout: I’m betting Jaquez has a strong pre-draft workout circuit. He’ll impress in team meetings and will likely perform well when he goes into competitive settings because of his experience and skill level as well as his two-way prowess. Jaquez can create his shot, defends well and is the kind of player who will lift the energy and intensity of those around him. He’s a four-year player at UCLA and was an All-American this past season on the wing, helping to turn around a UCLA program under coach Mick Cronin when he took over in 2019 with his talent and leadership.
The Fit: Few people have done more to help themselves in the pre-draft season than Jaquez. He’s consistently been among the best players whom teams have had in for workouts throughout the process, playing exceedingly well. They’ve also come to love him and his attitude, as he’s the kind of competitor who should be able to play early and make a difference. I’ve loved Jaquez for the last three years, and I’m excited NBA teams have finally come around. I’d expect he hears his name called in the first round.
The Range: No. 18 to 25
23. Portland Trail Blazers (via New York)
Leonard Miller | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Scout: Miller is a 6-10 forward in shoes and is a terrific, fluid athlete with rare body mechanics that allow him to get defenders off balance as he handles the ball as a driver or in transition. He’s an elite finisher with incredible touch, having made 67 percent of his shots at the rim. In 14 games in February and March, Miller averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game with one steal and one block. He shot 55.6 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line. He figured out the G League quickly last season, his first season of high-level basketball. I think he has an upside.
The Fit: The Blazers adore these types of players and love to draft for upside. This is a front office, going back to when Joe Cronin was an assistant GM, that loves betting on youth. Their picks last year with Cronin in the top chair didn’t change that. Think Anfernee Simons, Sharpe, Jabari Walker, Greg Brown, Nassir Little and Zach Collins. All of these guys were teenagers when the Blazers took them. There are some hits and some misses, but the value has exceeded the draft slot for the most part. Miller would fit right into their tradition of taking younger players and giving them time and space to develop, regardless of what their impending decision is on Damian Lillard and if they continue to build around him.
The range on Miller is wide. He’s had workouts with teams with lottery picks and has seen teams picking later in the first. I expect he’ll go in the first round, but the floor is later in the first.
The Range: No. 12 to No. 26
24. Sacramento Kings
Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 6-7 wing | Marquette
The Scout: I’m probably going to end up higher on Prosper than most evaluators just because I completely buy his tools and defense. Prosper is an awesome defensive player who profiles exceptionally well toward playing important minutes because of his switchability and potential to take on extremely difficult assignments. But it all comes down to shooting. If Prosper can consistently hit 35 percent-plus from 3, he’ll provide enough value to be a long-term NBA rotation player who helps teams win in high-leverage moments. He’s also been one of the players who has helped himself most in the pre-draft process.
The Fit: The Kings need players who profile as multi-positional defenders. De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell were strong on defense this season but are too small to guard up the lineup. Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk and Keegan Murray aren’t difference-makers on that end, and Harrison Barnes hits free agency this offseason. Prosper would be a nice developmental player for them to have in the system who could give them a real boost once he’s ready to play. The big key here is shooting. If they buy Prosper as a shooter, it’s a perfect fit.
The Range: No. 18 to 35
25. Memphis Grizzlies
Colby Jones | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Xavier
The Scout: Jones does a lot of things well. He averaged 15 points, six rebounds and four assists. He shot over 50 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3, including 42 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s. He can operate in ball screens, and he can lead the break as a distributor. Jones also is a sharp defensive player who rotates well, can guard one through three on the ball and makes impact plays as a shot blocker and transition starter in passing lanes. Jones isn’t the best athlete on the planet, and that will play a role in where he’s picked. But Jones’ game profiles well toward playing a solid NBA role.
The Fit: The Grizzlies will lose Dillon Brooks this offseason and could use a well-rounded wing who can replace some of his impact. On top of that, Memphis tends to have a type it looks for in the draft. Most of the time in this range, it tends to be a bit of an older player who ticks a lot of boxes in terms of production. The Grizzlies love high-IQ, high-character guys who can dribble, pass and shoot. Think Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, David Roddy, Jake LaRavia. Jones ticks those boxes, as well as many statistical boxes that have corresponded with Grizzlies’ picks in the past.
The Range: No. 20 to 40
26. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland)
Brice Sensabaugh | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Ohio State
The Scout: Few freshmen in college basketball were as productive this past season as Sensabaugh, who averaged 16 points while shooting 48 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3 and 83 percent from the line. Beyond that, he’s a terrific shot creator who is excellent at separating just enough and sharp as a tough-shot maker. So what is the concern? First, Sensabaugh struggled a bit after teams started to key on him as the first option. Over his final 12 games, he shot just 44 percent from the field and 28 percent from 3. He also struggled defensively, and teams routinely attacked him. Still, Sensabaugh is a remarkable prospect as a scorer. Over the last 30 years in college hoops, only seven other freshmen averaged 16 points while shooting 48 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3. The only one who wasn’t a first-round pick was Jason Kapono, and he went No. 31.
The Fit: This is where the draft essentially gets impossible to predict in any way. The next four picks are all on the market. The Pacers have pick Nos. 26, 29 and 32. Nobody in the league expects them to make all of those picks. The Pacers will canvass the league to either consolidate and move up the board or move out for future assets.
Here, I have Sensabaugh, a terrific scoring wing. He was just cleared to begin participating in team workouts after injuring his knee at the end of the college basketball season. His range is considered to be quite wide, given that factor.
The Range: No. 15 to 40
27. Charlotte Hornets (via Denver)
Keyonte George | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Baylor
The Scout: George is a bit polarizing for scouts. Some love his craft as a ballhandler and playmaker. He’s very creative off the bounce and can play at this rare cadence that is hard to stay in front of. However, he’s also not necessarily the best decision-maker yet and not a high-level athlete for a primary ballhandler. That led to some real inefficiency this past season. He shot just 37 percent from the field and turned it over three times per game despite playing for one of the best, most-well-spaced offenses in the country. Defensively, he has his positive moments, but they’re hit or miss. It’s hard to find creative guards who are this young and productive, though.
The Fit: The Hornets have picks Nos. 27, 34, 39 and 41. They just don’t have the roster space to make all of them. With nine players on the roster for next season plus the restricted free agencies of P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges and many holes that could need filling from veteran free agents, the team might not have space for even three of them. Teams across the league are looking somewhat aggressively at these picks as a potential place to get into the draft.
Under the Michael Jordan regime, the Hornets tend to either draft guys who produced at an exceedingly high level in college (think Washington, Cody Martin, Cody Zeller, Kemba Walker) or who are young with high-level tools (think J.T. Thor, Bryce McGowens, Kai Jones, others). And over the last few years, they’ve tended to be willing to draft the latter more than the former, especially outside of the lottery. George’s fall stops here. Teams are legitimately all over the map with him at this point.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
28. Utah Jazz (via Philadelphia)
Brandin Podziemski | 6-4 wing | Santa Clara
The Scout: Podziemski is one of the cycle’s risers. He was a tremendous scorer this past season at Santa Clara, has a tremendous feel for the game and consistently makes sharp passing reads. The shooting is a critical skill, as Podziemski made 43.8 percent of his 3s this past season and is a knockdown shooter when left open. The big question is what he brings defensively, and I’m extremely skeptical of him. He plays hard and with a motor, plus he’s competitively wired. But he just doesn’t have the defensive tools necessary to succeed at the NBA level. Maybe he can make it work by crashing the glass — where he was an awesome college rebounder — and being in the right place at the right time, but I’m a touch lower on Podziemski than the consensus seems to be.
The Scout: The Jazz haven’t been quite as aggressive as some of the teams above them in looking to move their third first-rounder if only because they do not have any second-rounders and are flexible enough with their roster that they can house three rookies. But they’re willing to take calls about consolidating pick value. I’ve going with Podziemski in projecting that they keep the pick. His competitiveness fits with what Ainge seems to be looking for in selections this season.
Even though I’m a bit lower on his evaluation, few players have helped themselves in the pre-draft process as much as Podziemski. He deserves an immense amount of credit for how he has attacked it. I think this might be closer to his floor than his ceiling, as teams in the early 20s and even teens have displayed a level of interest in him. He has been extremely impressive in team workouts. There are certainly evaluators who have questions about him on defense, but I’m definitely on the lower end here with him, and a number of executives are big fans.
The Range: No. 20 to 35
29. Indiana Pacers (via Boston)
Rayan Rupert | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | New Zealand Breakers
The Scout: Rupert is arguably the first NBL Next Star in Australia to make a positive impact on a winning team. He was terrific as an aggressive, defensive-minded wing for the New Zealand Breakers who made the NBL Finals this past season. At 6-7 in shoes with a 7-2 wingspan, Rupert has immense upside on that end. He’s laterally quick and aggressive, plus has strong instincts in help defense for a teenager. How far Rupert goes will be determined by his offense. He’s an iffy shooter right now who isn’t quite strong enough on the ball to make consistent plays. He has good passing vision from growing up as a guard, but he doesn’t have the handle or burst to pressure the defense yet. He’s a project, but the physical tools make him one with an upside.
The Fit: The same sentence about pick No. 26 applies here. If this is a pick they keep, the team has its point guard of the future in Haliburton and a tremendous pressure wing in Bennedict Mathurin, who lived at the foul line last season. With Rupert, they could try to shore up the perimeter defense that was a borderline catastrophe at times.
An additional note about trades if only because I don’t have anywhere else to put it: Sources across the league have said Milwaukee, Phoenix and Cleveland have explored potential opportunities to move up into the late 20s and 30s due to the depth of prospects on the wing and potential NBA-ready, older rotation players. Everyone explores deals this time of year, and you could probably write this sentence about any team. But those three do seem to be teams to watch.
The Range: No. 20 to 40
30. LA Clippers (via Milwaukee)
Ben Sheppard | 6-5 wing | 22 years old | Belmont
The Scout: Another riser throughout the pre-draft process, Sheppard is considered a solid bet to hear his name called in the first round because of his combination of shooting and feel for the game. Sheppard is intelligent and makes the right play to keep the offense flowing. He’s also a confident shooter and a player who held up extremely well defensively this season, earning Missouri Valley All-Defense honors. He could even go a touch higher than this on draft night.
The Fit: The Clippers tend to love guys with what they define as “Clipper DNA.” These players tend to be extremely competitive, tough and willing to put in the effort on both ends. Sheppard is the kind of player who ticks a lot of those boxes while also being able to shoot and move the ball, skills the Clippers could use as they build out the roster. He’s seen as a likely first-round pick at this point and could come off the board a bit earlier than this.
The Range: No. 20 to 35
Second Round
31. Detroit Pistons: Andre Jackson | 6-6 wing | Connecticut
32. Indiana Pacers: Trayce Jackson-Davis | 6-8 big | Indiana
33. San Antonio Spurs (via Houston): Marcus Sasser | 6-1 guard | Houston
34. Charlotte Hornets: James Nnaji | 6-11 big | Barcelona
35. Boston Celtics (via Portland): Julian Phillips | 6-7 wing | Tennessee
36. Orlando Magic: Max Lewis | 6-6 wing | Pepperdine
37. Denver Nuggets (via Washington): Jalen Wilson | 6-6 wing | Kansas
38. Sacramento Kings (via Indiana): Kobe Brown | 6-7 wing | Missouri
39. Charlotte Hornets (via Utah): Gregory “G.G.” Jackson | 6-8 forward | South Carolina
40. Denver Nuggets (via Dallas): Jalen Pickett | 6-2 guard | Penn State
41. Charlotte Hornets (via Oklahoma City): Sidy Cissoko | 6-7 wing | G League Ignite
42. Washington Wizards (via Chicago): Amari Bailey | 6-3 wing | UCLA
43. Portland Trail Blazers (via Atlanta): Colin Castleton | 6-11 center | Florida
44. San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto): Seth Lundy | 6-4 wing | Penn State
45. Memphis Grizzlies (via Minnesota): Adama Sanogo | 6-7 big | Connecticut
46. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans): Chris Livingston | 6-6 wing | Kentucky
47. Los Angeles Lakers: Julian Strawther | 6-6 wing | Gonzaga
48. LA Clippers: Jordan Walsh | 6-6 wing | Arkansas
49. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Golden State): Keyontae Johnson | 6-5 wing | Kansas State
50. Indiana Pacers (via Miami): Tristan Vukčević | 6-11 center | Partizan
51. Brooklyn Nets: Mouhammed Gueye | 6-10 big | Washington State
52. Phoenix Suns: Jordan Miller | 6-5 wing | Miami (Fla.)
53. Minnesota Timberwolves (via New York): Jaylen Clark | 6-4 wing | UCLA
54. Sacramento Kings: Terquavion Smith | 6-3 guard | NC State
55. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland): Omari Moore | 6-5 wing | San Jose State
56. Memphis Grizzlies: Nadir Hifi | 6-2 guard | Le Portel
57. Washington Wizards (via Boston): Ricky Council IV | 6-5 wing | Arkansas
58. Milwaukee Bucks: Mojave King | 6-4 guard | G League Ignite
(Philadelphia and Chicago have forfeited picks due to free-agency tomfoolery and shenanigans)
Nick Smith Jr. | 6-4 combo guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
The Scout: Smith was not particularly impressive at Arkansas this past season. But there is context behind that, as he dealt with a knee injury early in the season and was surrounded by a roster of non-shooters who stopped him from being able to attack the rim. Still, Smith shot just 37 percent from the field, 33 percent from 3 and was poor defensively and that resulted in him getting benched at times in the NCAA Tournament. Smith was a top-three recruit in the class last season and has real off-ball scoring creativity. His high school tape is quite strong. His range is a bit wide, but I’m willing to bet that last season is a bit more of an aberration than people think.
The Fit: The Hawks took fewer 3s than anyone in the NBA this season on a per-shot basis and put very little pressure on the rim. Despite this, they were still a top 10 offense because Trae Young is that good of a creative force. Now, with Quin Snyder getting a full season, they need more shooters and diverse offensive threats. With Bogdan Bogdanović’s injury history (missing about 20 games per season) and Dejounte Murray’s contract running out at the end of next season, it might make sense for them to look toward the combo guard market in this draft class, which is diverse in terms of skill set. Smith ticks a lot of boxes, even if he needs to improve drastically on defense.
The Range: No. 10 to No. 25
16. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota)
Kobe Bufkin | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Michigan
The Scout: Bufkin has risen through the pre-draft process. He’s one of my favorite prospects and the evidence is there. Over his last 12 games, he averaged 17 points per game in Big Ten play while shooting 52 percent from the field, 45 percent from 3 and 89 percent from the line. He also grabbed six rebounds, had three assists and about two steals. That’s the point in the year when he started to get more usage consistently. He averaged only 9.6 shots per game in Michigan’s first 18 games as the Wolverines used more Hunter Dickinson/Jett Howard sets. In those last 15, Bufkin took nearly 13 shots per game and got far more high-leverage opportunities. There just aren’t many holes in his game. He’s a great finisher and a good shooter from the midrange and 3. He makes high-level passes, is strong on the ball, can help defensively and is well-rounded.
The Fit: The Jazz shouldn’t have a specific type. The goal should merely be to acquire the best talent. Bufkin ticks a ton of boxes for them in terms of size and ability to play both on and off the ball, which means they won’t have to limit themselves in any way while building the rest of the roster out. He’s seen as a possibility to be picked everywhere from No. 10 on down, so it’s hard for me to see a world where he gets past No. 17 or so. He has a shot to end up in the lottery.
The Range: No. 10 to No. 17
17. Los Angeles Lakers
Jett Howard | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Michigan
The Scout: Howard is a tremendous shot-maker, which allows him to be a genuine threat in NBA-caliber actions. Michigan ran a ton of Zoom and Pistol actions, using him in dribble handoffs. The Wolverines ran him off screening actions regularly trying to get him loose. He’s a teenager who averaged 14 points and hit 37 percent from 3 on high volume and also showcased the ability to relocate and score from the midrange. Here’s the issue: Michigan was about seven points per 100 possessions better when Howard was off the court because he was such a negative defender. He can’t move in space and also isn’t strong enough now to guard down the lineup. He has a ways to go on that end.
The Fit: The key skill that works best with LeBron James offensively is shooting. Howard has the potential to be a tremendous floor spacer, so his fit with the Lakers would be good. Also, don’t be stunned to see the Lakers look to trade down. The team only has four players guaranteed to be under contract for next season. Getting some cost-controlled depth would help them with their plans, and there are several teams, as we’ll discuss, that are exploring consolidating some pick capital.
The Range: No. 10 to 25
18. Miami Heat
Jordan Hawkins | 6-4 wing | 21 years old | Connecticut
The Scout: Hawkins has a case as arguably the best movement shooter in the class. UConn had him sprint off screening actions, using his pristine shooting mechanics and ability to stop on a dime to get open and can 3s. He averaged 16 points and was a critical piece of the national champion Huskies, keying their perimeter attack with how much teams had to respect his gravitational force. Hawkins also improved a bit off the bounce this past season, becoming an impactful, effective attacker of closeouts. He works defensively, but this is where his lack of strength comes in. Hawkins is extremely skinny and will need to put on some weight in the coming years. But he’s an elite shooter and those guys tend to work out.
The Fit: Guys who can fly around and shoot in creative offensive sets are always valuable in Miami due to how the offense operates. Can you imagine Hawkins flying off dribble-handoff actions with Bam Adebayo? A big piece of the Heat’s run to the NBA Finals was their ability to consistently nail shots, but it remains to be seen how sustainable that is given that they finished just 27th in 3-point percentage in the regular season. Hawkins would give their offense a huge boost, and no team has done better work maximizing its players’ bodies than the Heat in recent years. His range starts at No. 12 with the Thunder, so he could be off the board by this point. The Jazz, Lakers, Heat and Warriors are all also thought to have some degree of interest in the No. 16 to No. 19 range.
The Range: No. 12 to No. 25
19. Golden State Warriors
Kris Murray | 6-8 wing | 22 years old | Iowa
The Scout: Murray isn’t quite his brother in terms of effectiveness. He’s not the shooter Keegan is and is not quite as athletic. But he’s a 6-8, well-rounded wing who stepped into Keegan’s role at Iowa and averaged 20 points, eight rebounds and two assists per game. And across the league, teams continue to look for wings with real size and athleticism who can immediately step in and play. At 22 years old, Murray figures to provide genuine value within the first two years of his career as a rotation three/four with a starter’s upside.
The Fit: The Warriors have tended to draft younger in recent years. All of Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, Patrick Baldwin Jr., James Wiseman, Nico Mannion, Alen Smailagić and Ryan Rollins were teenagers when the Dubs picked them, and Jordan Poole turned 20 one week before being picked. Typically, I tend to buy into the idea that the best indicator of future drafts is what front offices have done in the past. But the current thought circulating among sources is that the team may look to go a bit older and more experienced after not getting a ton of present-day value out of its selections in the last three years. Think of guys like Murray, Hawkins and Jaime Jaquez. Murray would be a solid, athletic combo forward who should be able to play earlier rather than later.
The Range: No. 12 to 24
20. Houston Rockets (via LA Clippers)
Noah Clowney | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Alabama
The Scout: NBA personnel love guys who are big, young, defensively conscious and have the potential to shoot. Clowney ticks just about every single one of those boxes. He played this entire season at 18 years old and is 6-10 with about a 7-3 wingspan. He covers ground on the defensive end at a high level. He rebounds and took over four 3-point attempts per game this past season. Now, Clowney did not make a ton of those 3s (28 percent), but the shot is clean and workable. I’m not quite as high on him as the rest of the NBA, as I worry a little bit about him guarding in space with how high his hips are and how he can cut off guards. But he has great help instincts, and as his body fills out, I wonder if he can keep improving his mobility overall. He’s a first-round talent, but he’ll take some time.
The Fit: The Rockets got this pick in a smart trade with the LA Clippers that saw them move up 10 draft slots into the middle of the first round in exchange for Eric Gordon. That allowed them to enter a different tier of players who will be available. Under the Rafael Stone regime, they have tended to take the best player available. I would imagine that will be the case at No. 20, as the Rockets are still far enough away from competing that it’s worth them just adding talent. Sources around the league have struggled to slot a player here. Clowney makes a lot of sense as a defensive-minded forward who has the potential to shoot and maybe long term could play in modern lineups with Jabari Smith Jr. given his length.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
21. Brooklyn Nets (via Phoenix)
Dariq Whitehead | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Duke
The Scout: A bet on Whitehead is a bet on the shooting upside he showcased this past season — making 42 percent from 3 — as well as the upside he’d showcased at the high school level. His performance at Duke was not that of a first-round pick. He couldn’t pressure the rim and struggled defensively. But context is important. Whitehead suffered a fifth metatarsal foot injury in the summer, which extended into the preseason and kept him out of the team’s first three games in addition to missing valuable practice time. He had a follow-up surgery in June to repair the foot that did not heal properly the first time. This had an enormous impact on Whitehead’s season, as he looked to be nowhere near the athlete at Duke that he was in high school when he was undeniably one of the best players in his class. This is a very difficult situation to judge, and due to the medical factor, his range is quite wide.
The Fit: The Nets need offensive players. More than anything, they need creators who can get their own offense. Whitehead has the potential to do that if he gets some of the athleticism back that he lost this season dealing with the foot injury. It’s also worth noting that Martin O’Malley, the Nets’ orthopedist, did the follow-up surgery on Whitehead’s foot. It comes down to whether the Nets are high on Whitehead. We’ll find out on draft night, but he ticks a lot of the boxes they are looking for as a shooter and potential scorer.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
22. Brooklyn Nets
Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 6-6 guard | 22 years old | UCLA
The Scout: I’m betting Jaquez has a strong pre-draft workout circuit. He’ll impress in team meetings and will likely perform well when he goes into competitive settings because of his experience and skill level as well as his two-way prowess. Jaquez can create his shot, defends well and is the kind of player who will lift the energy and intensity of those around him. He’s a four-year player at UCLA and was an All-American this past season on the wing, helping to turn around a UCLA program under coach Mick Cronin when he took over in 2019 with his talent and leadership.
The Fit: Few people have done more to help themselves in the pre-draft season than Jaquez. He’s consistently been among the best players whom teams have had in for workouts throughout the process, playing exceedingly well. They’ve also come to love him and his attitude, as he’s the kind of competitor who should be able to play early and make a difference. I’ve loved Jaquez for the last three years, and I’m excited NBA teams have finally come around. I’d expect he hears his name called in the first round.
The Range: No. 18 to 25
23. Portland Trail Blazers (via New York)
Leonard Miller | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Scout: Miller is a 6-10 forward in shoes and is a terrific, fluid athlete with rare body mechanics that allow him to get defenders off balance as he handles the ball as a driver or in transition. He’s an elite finisher with incredible touch, having made 67 percent of his shots at the rim. In 14 games in February and March, Miller averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game with one steal and one block. He shot 55.6 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line. He figured out the G League quickly last season, his first season of high-level basketball. I think he has an upside.
The Fit: The Blazers adore these types of players and love to draft for upside. This is a front office, going back to when Joe Cronin was an assistant GM, that loves betting on youth. Their picks last year with Cronin in the top chair didn’t change that. Think Anfernee Simons, Sharpe, Jabari Walker, Greg Brown, Nassir Little and Zach Collins. All of these guys were teenagers when the Blazers took them. There are some hits and some misses, but the value has exceeded the draft slot for the most part. Miller would fit right into their tradition of taking younger players and giving them time and space to develop, regardless of what their impending decision is on Damian Lillard and if they continue to build around him.
The range on Miller is wide. He’s had workouts with teams with lottery picks and has seen teams picking later in the first. I expect he’ll go in the first round, but the floor is later in the first.
The Range: No. 12 to No. 26
24. Sacramento Kings
Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 6-7 wing | Marquette
The Scout: I’m probably going to end up higher on Prosper than most evaluators just because I completely buy his tools and defense. Prosper is an awesome defensive player who profiles exceptionally well toward playing important minutes because of his switchability and potential to take on extremely difficult assignments. But it all comes down to shooting. If Prosper can consistently hit 35 percent-plus from 3, he’ll provide enough value to be a long-term NBA rotation player who helps teams win in high-leverage moments. He’s also been one of the players who has helped himself most in the pre-draft process.
The Fit: The Kings need players who profile as multi-positional defenders. De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell were strong on defense this season but are too small to guard up the lineup. Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk and Keegan Murray aren’t difference-makers on that end, and Harrison Barnes hits free agency this offseason. Prosper would be a nice developmental player for them to have in the system who could give them a real boost once he’s ready to play. The big key here is shooting. If they buy Prosper as a shooter, it’s a perfect fit.
The Range: No. 18 to 35
25. Memphis Grizzlies
Colby Jones | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Xavier
The Scout: Jones does a lot of things well. He averaged 15 points, six rebounds and four assists. He shot over 50 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3, including 42 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s. He can operate in ball screens, and he can lead the break as a distributor. Jones also is a sharp defensive player who rotates well, can guard one through three on the ball and makes impact plays as a shot blocker and transition starter in passing lanes. Jones isn’t the best athlete on the planet, and that will play a role in where he’s picked. But Jones’ game profiles well toward playing a solid NBA role.
The Fit: The Grizzlies will lose Dillon Brooks this offseason and could use a well-rounded wing who can replace some of his impact. On top of that, Memphis tends to have a type it looks for in the draft. Most of the time in this range, it tends to be a bit of an older player who ticks a lot of boxes in terms of production. The Grizzlies love high-IQ, high-character guys who can dribble, pass and shoot. Think Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, David Roddy, Jake LaRavia. Jones ticks those boxes, as well as many statistical boxes that have corresponded with Grizzlies’ picks in the past.
The Range: No. 20 to 40
26. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland)
Brice Sensabaugh | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Ohio State
The Scout: Few freshmen in college basketball were as productive this past season as Sensabaugh, who averaged 16 points while shooting 48 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3 and 83 percent from the line. Beyond that, he’s a terrific shot creator who is excellent at separating just enough and sharp as a tough-shot maker. So what is the concern? First, Sensabaugh struggled a bit after teams started to key on him as the first option. Over his final 12 games, he shot just 44 percent from the field and 28 percent from 3. He also struggled defensively, and teams routinely attacked him. Still, Sensabaugh is a remarkable prospect as a scorer. Over the last 30 years in college hoops, only seven other freshmen averaged 16 points while shooting 48 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3. The only one who wasn’t a first-round pick was Jason Kapono, and he went No. 31.
The Fit: This is where the draft essentially gets impossible to predict in any way. The next four picks are all on the market. The Pacers have pick Nos. 26, 29 and 32. Nobody in the league expects them to make all of those picks. The Pacers will canvass the league to either consolidate and move up the board or move out for future assets.
Here, I have Sensabaugh, a terrific scoring wing. He was just cleared to begin participating in team workouts after injuring his knee at the end of the college basketball season. His range is considered to be quite wide, given that factor.
The Range: No. 15 to 40
27. Charlotte Hornets (via Denver)
Keyonte George | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Baylor
The Scout: George is a bit polarizing for scouts. Some love his craft as a ballhandler and playmaker. He’s very creative off the bounce and can play at this rare cadence that is hard to stay in front of. However, he’s also not necessarily the best decision-maker yet and not a high-level athlete for a primary ballhandler. That led to some real inefficiency this past season. He shot just 37 percent from the field and turned it over three times per game despite playing for one of the best, most-well-spaced offenses in the country. Defensively, he has his positive moments, but they’re hit or miss. It’s hard to find creative guards who are this young and productive, though.
The Fit: The Hornets have picks Nos. 27, 34, 39 and 41. They just don’t have the roster space to make all of them. With nine players on the roster for next season plus the restricted free agencies of P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges and many holes that could need filling from veteran free agents, the team might not have space for even three of them. Teams across the league are looking somewhat aggressively at these picks as a potential place to get into the draft.
Under the Michael Jordan regime, the Hornets tend to either draft guys who produced at an exceedingly high level in college (think Washington, Cody Martin, Cody Zeller, Kemba Walker) or who are young with high-level tools (think J.T. Thor, Bryce McGowens, Kai Jones, others). And over the last few years, they’ve tended to be willing to draft the latter more than the former, especially outside of the lottery. George’s fall stops here. Teams are legitimately all over the map with him at this point.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
28. Utah Jazz (via Philadelphia)
Brandin Podziemski | 6-4 wing | Santa Clara
The Scout: Podziemski is one of the cycle’s risers. He was a tremendous scorer this past season at Santa Clara, has a tremendous feel for the game and consistently makes sharp passing reads. The shooting is a critical skill, as Podziemski made 43.8 percent of his 3s this past season and is a knockdown shooter when left open. The big question is what he brings defensively, and I’m extremely skeptical of him. He plays hard and with a motor, plus he’s competitively wired. But he just doesn’t have the defensive tools necessary to succeed at the NBA level. Maybe he can make it work by crashing the glass — where he was an awesome college rebounder — and being in the right place at the right time, but I’m a touch lower on Podziemski than the consensus seems to be.
The Scout: The Jazz haven’t been quite as aggressive as some of the teams above them in looking to move their third first-rounder if only because they do not have any second-rounders and are flexible enough with their roster that they can house three rookies. But they’re willing to take calls about consolidating pick value. I’ve going with Podziemski in projecting that they keep the pick. His competitiveness fits with what Ainge seems to be looking for in selections this season.
Even though I’m a bit lower on his evaluation, few players have helped themselves in the pre-draft process as much as Podziemski. He deserves an immense amount of credit for how he has attacked it. I think this might be closer to his floor than his ceiling, as teams in the early 20s and even teens have displayed a level of interest in him. He has been extremely impressive in team workouts. There are certainly evaluators who have questions about him on defense, but I’m definitely on the lower end here with him, and a number of executives are big fans.
The Range: No. 20 to 35
29. Indiana Pacers (via Boston)
Rayan Rupert | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | New Zealand Breakers
The Scout: Rupert is arguably the first NBL Next Star in Australia to make a positive impact on a winning team. He was terrific as an aggressive, defensive-minded wing for the New Zealand Breakers who made the NBL Finals this past season. At 6-7 in shoes with a 7-2 wingspan, Rupert has immense upside on that end. He’s laterally quick and aggressive, plus has strong instincts in help defense for a teenager. How far Rupert goes will be determined by his offense. He’s an iffy shooter right now who isn’t quite strong enough on the ball to make consistent plays. He has good passing vision from growing up as a guard, but he doesn’t have the handle or burst to pressure the defense yet. He’s a project, but the physical tools make him one with an upside.
The Fit: The same sentence about pick No. 26 applies here. If this is a pick they keep, the team has its point guard of the future in Haliburton and a tremendous pressure wing in Bennedict Mathurin, who lived at the foul line last season. With Rupert, they could try to shore up the perimeter defense that was a borderline catastrophe at times.
An additional note about trades if only because I don’t have anywhere else to put it: Sources across the league have said Milwaukee, Phoenix and Cleveland have explored potential opportunities to move up into the late 20s and 30s due to the depth of prospects on the wing and potential NBA-ready, older rotation players. Everyone explores deals this time of year, and you could probably write this sentence about any team. But those three do seem to be teams to watch.
The Range: No. 20 to 40
30. LA Clippers (via Milwaukee)
Ben Sheppard | 6-5 wing | 22 years old | Belmont
The Scout: Another riser throughout the pre-draft process, Sheppard is considered a solid bet to hear his name called in the first round because of his combination of shooting and feel for the game. Sheppard is intelligent and makes the right play to keep the offense flowing. He’s also a confident shooter and a player who held up extremely well defensively this season, earning Missouri Valley All-Defense honors. He could even go a touch higher than this on draft night.
The Fit: The Clippers tend to love guys with what they define as “Clipper DNA.” These players tend to be extremely competitive, tough and willing to put in the effort on both ends. Sheppard is the kind of player who ticks a lot of those boxes while also being able to shoot and move the ball, skills the Clippers could use as they build out the roster. He’s seen as a likely first-round pick at this point and could come off the board a bit earlier than this.
The Range: No. 20 to 35
Second Round
31. Detroit Pistons: Andre Jackson | 6-6 wing | Connecticut
32. Indiana Pacers: Trayce Jackson-Davis | 6-8 big | Indiana
33. San Antonio Spurs (via Houston): Marcus Sasser | 6-1 guard | Houston
34. Charlotte Hornets: James Nnaji | 6-11 big | Barcelona
35. Boston Celtics (via Portland): Julian Phillips | 6-7 wing | Tennessee
36. Orlando Magic: Max Lewis | 6-6 wing | Pepperdine
37. Denver Nuggets (via Washington): Jalen Wilson | 6-6 wing | Kansas
38. Sacramento Kings (via Indiana): Kobe Brown | 6-7 wing | Missouri
39. Charlotte Hornets (via Utah): Gregory “G.G.” Jackson | 6-8 forward | South Carolina
40. Denver Nuggets (via Dallas): Jalen Pickett | 6-2 guard | Penn State
41. Charlotte Hornets (via Oklahoma City): Sidy Cissoko | 6-7 wing | G League Ignite
42. Washington Wizards (via Chicago): Amari Bailey | 6-3 wing | UCLA
43. Portland Trail Blazers (via Atlanta): Colin Castleton | 6-11 center | Florida
44. San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto): Seth Lundy | 6-4 wing | Penn State
45. Memphis Grizzlies (via Minnesota): Adama Sanogo | 6-7 big | Connecticut
46. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans): Chris Livingston | 6-6 wing | Kentucky
47. Los Angeles Lakers: Julian Strawther | 6-6 wing | Gonzaga
48. LA Clippers: Jordan Walsh | 6-6 wing | Arkansas
49. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Golden State): Keyontae Johnson | 6-5 wing | Kansas State
50. Indiana Pacers (via Miami): Tristan Vukčević | 6-11 center | Partizan
51. Brooklyn Nets: Mouhammed Gueye | 6-10 big | Washington State
52. Phoenix Suns: Jordan Miller | 6-5 wing | Miami (Fla.)
53. Minnesota Timberwolves (via New York): Jaylen Clark | 6-4 wing | UCLA
54. Sacramento Kings: Terquavion Smith | 6-3 guard | NC State
55. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland): Omari Moore | 6-5 wing | San Jose State
56. Memphis Grizzlies: Nadir Hifi | 6-2 guard | Le Portel
57. Washington Wizards (via Boston): Ricky Council IV | 6-5 wing | Arkansas
58. Milwaukee Bucks: Mojave King | 6-4 guard | G League Ignite
(Philadelphia and Chicago have forfeited picks due to free-agency tomfoolery and shenanigans)
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I wish scoot would come in for a workout. Make houston trade up for you. I’m holding out hope.
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