2025 NBA Draft Thread



NBA Draft Confidential: coaches, executives, scouts on the top guard prospects in 2023

In case you didn’t hear, Victor Wembanyama is going No. 1.

The best pro prospect since LeBron James, the 7-foot-4, 19-year-old from Metropolitans 92 in France has done nothing to dissuade any thoughts that he will be someone whose game is, currently, not present in the NBA.

He may not live up to the crazy hype that’s been on him for the last three years, but it is impossible to conjure a scenario where he will not be, at the least, one of the most impactful players of his generation — a franchise changer. San Antonio’s Golden Ticket, won at last month’s lottery in Chicago, will not only bring the Spurs a unique talent, but also one who, unlike their other franchise icons, David Robinson and Tim Duncan, seeks the spotlight. Wembanyama wants the smoke. All of it.

“Victor has that ‘wow,’” said an admiring pro personnel executive — whose team, not being the Spurs, will not be able to take him. “And we just haven’t seen that, other than meshing NBA players together to form this unicorn that he is.”

We will certainly cover Wemby for the next, oh, decade-plus, barring injuries, pickle ball becoming the country’s top sport or meteor strike. In the interim, we bring you the annual NBA Draft Confidential, starting with the top guard prospects in Thursday’s draft.

Once again, for those of you joining us in progress: This series began more than a decade ago, when I wrote pre-draft columns for NBA.com. It is, again, a blatant rip-off of Bruce Feldman’s NFL Draft Confidential, which you see every spring alongside Dane Brugler’s incomparable Beast. As Bruce complements Dane’s hundreds of thousands of words, I hope to supplement the 130,000 (!!) or so words the incomparable Sam Vecenie wrote again this season in his NBA Draft Guide, to cap off his year-long NBA Draft coverage. Sam lives and breathes this stuff. I have allergies. Sam will go to the ends of the earth to look at a prospect. I will occasionally go to the West Coast to watch the Dubs or Lakers.

But, I’ve put a little elbow grease into this. A lot of calls and chats over the past few weeks and months with a few dozen college head coaches, college assistants, NBA personnel people and executives and anyone else who saw this year’s top prospects or whose teams played against them this past season. I grant everyone anonymity so they’ll, you know, tell me what they actually think, not spoon out pablum.

What I did not ask them to do was a mock draft. How can I put this? Mock drafts are an abomination. I would rather watch “Joe Versus the Volcano” every day, three times a day, for the rest of my life, than take part in one. They waste your time. More importantly, they waste my time; for not only is there no chance I could come anywhere close to being right, but also the far greater likelihood is that I crash and burn horribly, get two out of 30 first-round picks right and be (rightly) condemned as a know-nothing moron. If you love doing them, or reading about them, I’m not your guy, Sparky. Because this time of year, when it comes to who’s taking whom, everyone’s lying. Everyone. Coaches. GMs. Agents. Your spouse. (Otherwise, he/she is a peach.)

So, my moles just give me their unvarnished thoughts on what they like and don’t like about the top prospects. Who accepted coaching? Who at least tried to defend? Are they good teammates? With so many one-and-done schools hoarding players, I’m always curious how guys play with other guys who are just as good, if not better, than they are, and who have similar lottery dreams. This includes everyone’s body of work during the season, but also what they did at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago last month, how they did at their individual pro days or how they did at their agencies’ workouts.

Today, we do guards. Then we’ll do wings before finishing up with the bigs. Obviously, in today’s NBA, there’s not a lot of difference between whether someone is projected as a guard or a wing in many cases. So you may not see someone today you think is a guard; in most cases, he will probably be listed among the wings next time.

No Consolation Prize
In most years, Scoot Henderson would be a clear, clear No. 1 pick. Henderson spent two years with G League Ignite after briefly considering coming out for the 2022 draft. It was a good decision. He re-established his bona fides immediately, matching Wembanyama for much of two exhibition games between Ignite and Metropolitans in Las Vegas last fall. And while the 19-year-old Henderson didn’t change any minds about who would go No. 1, he solidified his status as the clear No. 2 pick. An uneven season for Ignite, in which Henderson shut it down late to prepare for the draft, after playing just 19 games, didn’t hurt him either.

Stephen Curry has partnered with him, and Curry’s longtime trainer, Brandon Payne, has been working out with him since Ignite’s season ended. There is significant work to be done on Henderson’s shot — he was an anemic 27.5 percent on 3s for Ignite — but guys get better shooting the ball in the pros if they put in the work. Bottom line: You cannot win in the NBA without a premier ballhandler. There is disagreement in the league about whether the Hornets – assuming they keep the second pick – should take Alabama forward Brandon Miller or Henderson. Miller has a lot of support at No. 2. But whether Henderson goes second or third, the team that takes him will be very, very pleased.

“I’m going to try to change the narrative of whatever team,” Henderson said in Chicago. “Try to change that locker room up, that city, be a huge part of the community. Whatever the case is, I want to be there.”

Western Conference Executive 1: I think he’s the real deal. He took some of the G League off, just injuries and all that. He was dynamic in the Las Vegas games. Maybe he’s not all the way what you saw in the first Vegas game. But he ain’t what you saw at points in time in the season, either. He’s got the shoulders and the mentality to be the face of the franchise. That’s, like, the thing he’s got over Brandon. The responsibility of being that guy, I think he’s built for.

This year he also really focused on the feedback of, you’re more scorer; you’re not a point guard. At times, because it’s not all the way natural for him, he forced that, more than just ‘OK, the game, at this moment, needs me to take over scoring,’ and he would still be trying to make plays, play as the point guard. That balance turning that on and off, he’s still learning.

But he’s an Alpha dog, Alpha male. There’s not many of those that don’t also have issues. If you look at the stars around the league, there’s probably like four of those Alphas who come without major issues. Now, the game has to get there. But he’s that Alpha mentality without a bunch of issues. And he’s a worker. You don’t have to drag him to the gym; you gotta drag him out of the gym.

Western Conference Scout 1: Scoot’s got a chance (to be great). But I worry about Scoot’s mindset, in terms of how hard he has to work. I don’t want to say they handed everything to him, but they obviously built that whole G League thing around him the last couple of years. He carried himself with an air of I’ve arrived. And I think he’s going to be in for a rude awakening when he gets to the NBA. I could be way off base. There’s some holes in his game. Obviously the outside shooting. He’s really good in ball screens if you go under it. Logic would say, ‘Go under, he can’t shoot it, meet him on the other side.’ But he’s really good there. If you go underneath it, he’ll cat and mouse you. He can really make that midrange shot. What I found is if you went over the top, played him like he was a good shooter, but speed him up and chase him into traffic, he’s not nearly as comfortable. And defensively, he’s just OK.

The biggest thing for me is, he hasn’t played a lot of basketball the last couple of years. Is he going to push through it, especially when stuff gets tough? Physically, mentally, is he going to push through it? Physically, he’s got the tools. He’s got a great body. He’s a hell of an athlete. I just wonder if he’s going to push through when he hits some hard times. That’s my biggest concern with him. …

I would imagine there’s going to be a jump from when I saw him. I would imagine there’s an improvement in his outside shooting, maybe a little feel when people chase him over the top, where he can snake it and still get to his spot. He’s really, really good. This dude is really good in that midrange. … I worry about the mindset of, when things get a little tough here, am I going to persevere and push through this, or am I going to have an ankle injury and sit out a couple of games?

Eastern Conference Executive 1: Scoot is a (bleep), boy. I think he’s more like Donovan Mitchell, Derrick Rose — big, strong, physical, just tough as heck. He’s a killer. And he’s a high-character kid too.

Western Conference Scout 2: Yeah (there’s concern about the shot). But tell me an elite athlete that can shoot. Name me one. Give me one. Why would they shoot? If you’re coaching against Westbrook, Derrick Rose, and they came down all the time and shot 3s, wouldn’t you look at your assistants and go, “Oh, thank God he’s doing this. We can’t guard this (bleep).”

Now, if he’s going to become a superstar, that will have to evolve. But even if it doesn’t, like, 36 (percent) would be ideal. Thirty is not good enough. But if he could even get to 34, you’d be like, “OK, he’s just going to make, maybe, quite enough.” With all the other stuff he does? Look at John Wall. Never made a shot. Still paid. Derrick Rose. Russell Westbrook. Ja Morant. He can’t make a shot. Doesn’t matter.

I always say, can he make free throws? ’Cause those guys live at the line. So be 80 percent or above, and then you’re fine. He’s not that slippery (as Morant), because he’s built differently. He’s a little more powerful. He’s in the fast, go-go group. But he’s not Ja. He’s not Westbrook, either. I don’t know who he is. Maybe he’s just Scoot. ’Cause he’s thicker. Derrick Rose and Wall and all those guys were kind of longer and leaner. Morant’s like that. This kid’s a little thicker than that. So he’s going to start his own category, and in a couple of years, people will go, “Oh, he’s like Scoot.”

The Thompson Twins
Twenty years old and each 6-7, identical twins Amen and Ausar Thompson have been a combo package throughout their development, beginning in their hometown of Oakland, throughout their rocket-like ride through AAU ball and during their multi-year stay with Overtime Elite, the Atlanta-based player development league whose parent company has become a giant in the social media space. OTE’s YouTube Channel has 216,000 subscribers and streams all of the league’s games.

The Thompsons will be the first OTE players taken in the NBA Draft. Amen (pronounced “Ah-men,” with a short A) is a point guard prospect, with length and more than a willingness to get into a stance and disrupt ballhandlers. But his shot needs a lot of work. Ausar (“Aw-Sir”) has the better shot and is also a willing defender but isn’t the playmaker his brother is. With his electric athletic ability, Amen is likely to be a top-five pick; Ausar will almost certainly go just a few picks later. It seemed odd not to rank them both at the same time.

Eastern Conference Executive 1: I’m Amen all the way. He’s got the chance to be a superstar. He’s just got more skill level. He’s got the ability to play point guard. Both of them have to become better shooters. … they’re all-time great kids, high character, 4.0 student-type guys. This Overtime Elite, though. … All they do is isolation stuff. Both Thompsons overdribble crazy. If they were playing (for) Ignite or in college, coaches would have them out of that kind of crap. … I told our guys to just watch them practice and scrimmage. It sounds crazy, but (Amen’s) got a little LeBron in him, back in the day. He’s got the big-time body. Not quite as big, but, wow. Remember LeBron in high school; he couldn’t shoot it, very athletic, he was very much a facilitator too. Both of them have a chance to be really good. With Ausar, it’s probably going to come down to what team and who has what.

Western Conference Scout 2: They’re very good. Neither one shoots it really well. Ausar shoots it better. They’re athletic, they have size, they guard (bleeping) everybody. They throw (Andre) Iguodala (as a comp) a lot, and it’s pretty fair. Ballhandling, defending, athletic wings. That’s kind of who they are. They’re non-shooters. Like, Iguodala. Later in life he made some 3s. But no one will ever convince anyone that he was a shooter, ’cause he was a 65 percent (Editor’s note: 71 percent) career free-throw shooter. So he’s not a shooter. He willed in some 3s later in his career. He was just so good at everything else. When you played him, you go, ‘OK, I have to surround him with shooters.’

Let’s say one of them is around. And you’re not ready to win now, anyway. So it doesn’t matter. It’s like, ‘OK, we’ve got a really good asset.’ Then, if they believe in (either), and he has a good year, you say, ‘OK, I know who he is.’ Let’s say he’s Andre Iguodala. Now, you build accordingly. I need shooting, I need shooting. I can’t have Amen Thompson in my backcourt and Rudy Gobert in my frontcourt — two non-offensive players who are on the court at all times. So I need more offense. I can’t have Clint Capela; I’ve gotta have (Jonas) Valančiūnas. So I have an offensive guy. … I don’t have all non-shooters on the court with Thompson.

Amen is at least a point forward. He’s good with the ball. And he can guard anybody. And to his credit, he doesn’t take (bleeped)-up shots. He kind of knows who he is. It’s the deluded guys that kind of ruin the show, like, you can’t shoot, but you do. Iguodala never took (bleeped) up shots, because he understood that wasn’t his strength … but those two kids know. They’re good people; their pops is a good guy. It’s just, what level are they? Where do you pick them? I think they both go in the top 10.

Western Conference Executive 2: Both concern me because this speaks to the model: After two years of dedicating themselves to basketball, you still can’t shoot the ball? Here’s the analogy I would give you, and if turns out to be this guy, then that is a great pick. If (Ausar) turns out to be Shawn Marion, he’s a hell of a pick. Shawn Marion came into the league, couldn’t shoot for (bleep). He never changed that broken-arm form. But he did learn to shoot the corner jumper and then he just played the game with his incredible athleticism.

He’s about the same size as the Matrix. They (Amen and Ausar) play with the same type of dynamic athleticism as the Matrix; they handle it a little bit like the Matrix did. Now, Shawn happened to play on a team where he had very skilled players around him, so his lack of certain types of skills wasn’t as problematic. But that’s the comparison I make. And if he ends up being the Matrix, then he’s a hell of a pick. And if I’m not mistaken, Shawn went somewhere around nine or 10th (ninth, in the 1999 draft).

Who’s Next?
As ever, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. There are a half-dozen or so other guards with lottery potential: Arkansas freshmen guards Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr., who led the Razorbacks to the Sweet 16 before falling to eventual national champion UConn; Kentucky point guard Cason Wallace; Kansas sharpshooter Gradey ****; Indiana freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino; Baylor’s Keyonte George and Michigan’s Kobe Bufkin.

The 6-7 Black was second team All-SEC, leading the conference in minutes played — almost 35 a game — and set a school record for steals (74) by a freshman. But he only shot 30 percent on 3s. Smith was the No. 1 prospect in the class of 2022 but missed two months of Arkansas’ season with a knee injury. The 6-4 Wallace was second in the SEC in assists per game (4.2). **** is a flamethrower (40 percent on 3s for the Jayhawks) who was first team All-Big 12 and first team All-Freshman. Hood-Schifino came on strong for the Hoosiers as the season evolved; George is the latest Baylor backcourt big talent; Bufkin was third team All-Big Ten.

Anthony Black
Western Conference Executive 3: I really like Anthony Black — his size, his basketball IQ, his unselfishness. The shooting thing is clearly an area he’s going to have to address. But he has all the other stuff. He’s the perfect multi-positional defending player because of his size. He can basically switch one through four, one through five. And then he can pass it. I think he’s better than Dyson Daniels. … Him and Anthony are very similar. The reason I like (Black) more is he has a court presence. You feel him. … he’ll come up with a rebound, an assist, a finish, you see him switching, whatever. He’s a big kid. He’s 6-7 1/2, maybe 6-8. And he has size. He’s not skinny. He’s a big kid. He can guard. In that scenario, he can guard and switch.

It’s a copycat league. Everybody wants to play like the Warriors and the Clippers and Boston to a certain extent, because all those guys are between 6-4 and 6-9, and they switch everything, and all of them can score and shoot. Anthony’s deal is, what’s going to happen when they start daring him, and they’re guarding a man and a half off him, and saying, ‘Go ahead, shoot it.’ But I like him.

Muss (Arkansas coach Eric Musselman) put him in some (pro sets). I think that’s going to bode well for him. He’s going to already know the terminology, he’s going to already know the angle, the handoff, what to look for. But I think even before he stepped foot on campus at Arkansas, he already had a basketball acumen that was far in advance of freshmen for sure, and some collegians in the SEC, definitely.

If you talk to anyone, one of the first two or three things they’re going to say to you is this kid’s basketball smart. His vision. He sees the third and fourth option. It’s not just the first and second one. It’s going to be that much easier in his transition to getting onto an NBA floor, because he’s already going to know these things.

Everyone does get better (shooting), but now I just think it’s like at a heightened level in the league. You have to make a shot. You can’t play four-on-five anymore. You’re not going to win. Everyone on the floor has to be able to make a shot. Anthony, from the 3-point line and in, can (create). Is he going to be able to become an adequate enough shooter to keep defenses honest?

Eastern Conference Executive 2: I saw him in Maui. When he played with Nick Smith, he kind of deferred and moved the ball. But when Smith was out and they played in Maui, he played at a different level.

Western Conference Scout 2: I love Anthony Black, but he can’t shoot a (bleeping) lick. But he’s in the Thompson group. He’s big, he can guard anybody, he can pass. He can rebound. Big-time athlete. Great football player in high school. He’s real. Guard one through three, one through four. I’m normally, I always lean to the side of shooting. Offense always trumps defense for me. I can go to the G League and find some blue-collar (bleep) to face guard, dive on loose balls. I can’t find ‘this’ dude.

Cason Wallace
Western Conference Executive 3: He’s an enigma to me. In the sense that I don’t want to bet against him because all Kentucky guards make it: (Tyrese) Maxey, (Immanuel) Quickley, (De’Aaron) Fox, Shai (Gilgeous)-Alexander, Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, (Jamal) Murray, Devin Booker. All guards make it from Kentucky. But then, I see his production and how inconsistent it was this year. But then, looking back historically, all of those guys, it was the same deal. There were times where they were great for three or four games straight, and then for three to four games, they were just absolutely horrendous. So I’m not going to put anything by this kid, of not making it.

He plays hard. He competes. He’s a jack of all trades, master of none. When he’s going, he impacts at both ends. I’m not going to bet against him making it. He looks like a terrific teammate. There’s a reason he’s a McDonald’s All-American and one of the top two or three guards in the country.

College Assistant Coach 1 (his team played Kentucky): I thought he was tough. Really looked to run their offense and get guys shots. Their guards got the shots, with (CJ) Frederick and (Antonio) Reeves, and they had an inside guy that needed the ball in Oscar (Tshiebwe). Most point guards are freer to do more offensively.

There’s nothing wrong with his stroke. I think he’ll shoot the ball well. He’s good in pick-and-roll, and he’s a good defender. I look at him with Amen Thompson and Black and Wallace, I look at them as the bigger point guards (with potential). I thought he was physical, tough kid, get in there and rebound. I thought he was good. Watching him and coaching against him, I liked what I saw.

Gradey ****
College Head Coach 1 (his team played Kansas): Gradey’s probably more specialist than, truly, all-around great player. But, at his size, he reminds me of Duncan Robinson a little bit, in terms of just the size, and the ability to know how get his shot off quickly and move without the ball. Really, really smart player. You’ve got to be smart to get on the floor as a freshman for Bill Self. He’s a little bit of a liability at the defensive end, but that doesn’t usually get exposed until the playoffs, and he’s probably not going to be on a playoff team if he goes early. Elite shooter. If he’s open, you feel like it’s going to go in every time.

He’s got to get stronger. He might be a two-way guy until he learns the (pro) game. It certainly depends on the franchise he goes to. … I don’t think it’s an unwillingness (defensively); it’s just not a strength. It’s not something he’s really been good at. … Bill (Self) really needed his shooting on the floor, so even for a coach of his caliber, he probably let him hide defensively a little bit, more than he normally would. He doesn’t move well laterally. He’s not strong. He’s not quick. But as long as he’s not giving up five 3s, he can make seven or eight of them.

College Assistant Coach 2 (his team played Kansas): I had seen him in high school a lot, and you get to play him on campus. He’s all of 6-7, close to 6-8. Taller than you think. Cerebral kid. Obviously elite at shooting, but he’s more vertical than you think. He’s somebody who straight line drives, jumps straight up, is really good. You want to crowd him, you want to make him dribble it. We’re not overly schematic with how we play defense. We’ve been a really good defensive team the last two years. We wanted to crowd him, we wanted him to take more than one dribble. When he got into trying to make multiple moves or having to make a counter, he’s not as good. But for the skill set for the NBA, you’re like, absolutely.

This is a prototypical, Kyle Korver-ish mold guy, where he can stretch the floor, he can shoot on the move, he can shoot one dribble off the bounce. It’s a high release. He’s a lottery pick. You see him one time and you’re like, ‘He’s going to be here for eight months, and then he’s going to be playing with the big boys.’ Great way about him too, where he’s got a little swag, where he’s like, ‘Yeah, I’m a dude.’ And he is. He got better defensively as the year went on too. I don’t ever foresee him as some kind of a stopper, but he’s lateral enough where he can use his length, and he’ll be fine. He’ll give some effort. He’s an elite shot maker, great range. His athleticism is good. As long as he’s unobstructed. If he has a clear lane, he can get up, and he’s tall. He’s a tall kid. He’s got length and all that.

Jalen Hood-Schifino
College Assistant Coach 3 (his team played Indiana): We love this kid. … He is a midrange nightmare. If he beats you to the elbows, he’s got the size to raise and shoot over you. (He’s ) 6-6, about 215. Played point guard for them after Xavier Johnson got hurt, and they were better with him because he was more dynamic with the ball. He is a little bit turnover-prone. But he loves the screen-roll dribble into his own shot, as long as he’s going right. If he’s going right, he’s deadly. You can’t let him get downhill; you’ve got to get the ball out of his hands. If they did that, they had Trayce Jackson-Davis on the short roll. But he is a really dynamic player. He’s not as good defensively as he was offensively, but he’s such a good player. …

That’s about all (Indiana coach Mike Woodson) does, simple pro stuff: turnouts, floppy, get the ball back to him on a high screen-roll to the right elbow. I know Woody is a fairly demanding defensive coach. I think he is just young, being a freshman. He reminds me a little bit of Chauncey Billups. He’s got similar size — I don’t know if he’s the leader Chauncey is, because they had Trayce there, and this kid’s a freshman. But, a really good player.

College Head Coach 3 (his team played Indiana): I think he could be one of those guys you look up and he’s an All-Star. Because at his size, with his ability, and his IQ, he’s one of those guys that can make the game easy for himself and easy for other people. When we played them, he was the difference. He won the game. … We led most of the game … (but) when it came down to winning time, Hood-Schifino took it to another level. I was like, ‘Man, that’s pretty good.’ As he continues to grow in his game and grow just in his craft, he’s going to be one of those guys that you look up, and it’s not going to be a surprise that he’s an All-Star. I don’t know his work ethic, things like that. If he works, it’s scary how good he can be.

At that guard spot, he has size, but he also has skill. He would have been one of those guys that, back in the day, like Eric Snow played with (Allen) Iverson. He would have been one of those big point guards that can guard a two, to allow the smaller two guard to guard the point guard. I look at his ability not only to create for himself but to create for others. That’s what makes him really intriguing.

The other part is he has that ‘big play’ type of ability. He’s not afraid of the moment. I think you can play him on the ball, you can play him off the ball. I think with more time, depending on where he goes, but every NBA team, for the most part, does a great job with player development, I think he can, his shooting is only going to improve too. I think he has a chance to be really, really good.

College Assistant Coach 4 (his team played Indiana): Super talented. He’s one of the guys, he’ll be a pro for a while. One of the very few guys that, he actually improved his shooting in the course of the season. Came into the season as a non-shooter. But he made a lot of big baskets for them, played with a lot of composure. Very big for them down the stretch of the season. Their season sort of when, if he played well, the team usually played well. Great size and handle, good feel for the game, made plays out of the pick-and-roll. I think he’s going to be a solid pro.

I think he played well with Trayce. He probably deferred more when Trayce was playing because Trayce was who he was for that team. When Trayce was out, it really opened up the floor for him more, made him more of a scorer and driver, as opposed to playing with Trayce, who is a guy that was always around the basket. I don’t see him having a problem making the transition. He is a complete problem in transition. I think he’ll be a better pro than he was in college. He was solid with dribble handoffs, pick-and-rolls, had a good feel, made good reads, made the right plays. I think he’s going to be really good. And because of his size, he’s a point guard for sure, but he can guard multiple positions because he’s got good size, has a strong body.

Keyonte George
Western Conference Executive 3: There is some risk. That’s what you have to weigh with him: is the reward going to outweigh the risk taking him? Because he does some not so basketball IQ-ish things at times, where you question, is he playing for the front of the jersey or the back of the jersey? But he does stuff you see on a nightly basis in an NBA game that’s different. And I think there’s some versatility with him. He can play with it and off of it well. I’m somewhat in a love affair with him.

I saw him at CP3 in the summer, and then he went to (Damian) Lillard’s. You don’t go to those events just to go to those events. He must love to play. And, No. 2, there were sessions where there was no question he was the best player on the floor. And at the time he was an incoming freshman, playing against already-seasoned collegians. And when Chris goes up and down, Chris is very adamant about, guys, this is King of the Court. We’re playing. And Chris does not mix. It’s the pros versus the collegians. And Keyonte played very well then. I think the kid’s very, very talented. And he could have a very nice, long, starting backcourt career in the league. He (guards) one and two. And there’s going to be some nights he may get just outsized with a starting two. … Keyonte can definitely manufacture a wide range of looks.

College Assistant Coach 2 (his team played Baylor): Keyonte is ultra talented. We had success against Baylor because we try to challenge guys. And he’ll always take the challenge. In the games we played, it wasn’t to their advantage; it was to our advantage. If Keonte catches it at halfcourt and you get a guy all the way out there, he’s going to take it like, OK, this is personal. He’s going to dribble eight times and shoot a fadeaway, and it’s a lower percentage shot. He’s a better shooter than he shot this year. He just doesn’t take great shots. But you look at it at the level he’s going to, it’s like, ‘Hey, man, you’re going to go stand in the corner, and just shoot that one. You don’t get to do the 13 dribbles before it.’

He’s a little immature. He was somebody who you could get into his head, different from Gradey ****, who just plays. If you were talking (bleep) to him, he just let it brush it off his shoulder. Whereas Keyonte was more like, oh, really? He wanted to talk back. And you’re like, ‘Man, you don’t even realize how good you are; you shouldn’t even be talking to our guys. Our guys are not NBA guys. You don’t even need to do that.’

Elite scorer. Great body control. Can really pass too. … If you crowd him, he’s going to shoot. He’s going to take it as, ‘You think you can guard me? I’m insulted. I’m going to shoot now.’ And some games, at Kansas, he had 20 in the first half. I think he had 30 versus Gonzaga. Some games, he was rolling. … It’s just kind of hit or miss. I would think at the pro level, he would be able to have a little bit of restraint, based on there’s going to be another superstar, star player going, ‘Hey bro, we don’t do that here. Go stand and have your place.’

But he’s a 6-5, good athlete, great athlete. He’s a pro player. I don’t think he’s selfish. He’s been able to do what he wants for so long, that it’s kind of like, ‘Yeah, this is what I do. I’m a McDonald’s All-American, so I get to shoot that shot.’ … I don’t know the last time he wasn’t the No. 1 option. That’ll probably be a little bit of an adjustment, but I’m sure it’s like that for a lot of guys.

Kobe Bufkin
College Assistant Coach 3 (his team played Michigan): He’s a really good player. Much underrated. At the end of the year, he was their best player. He was the guy we respected the most, more than Jett (Howard), more than Hunter Dickinson. … Bufkin is a really good player. They list him at 195 pounds. Left-handed. Very athletic combo guard. And he’s very capable from 3, although he didn’t shoot it great (35.5 percent from deep). You’ve got to make him dribble, you can’t give him wide-open shots. He’s a good, good player. If he can develop his 3-point shot, that’ll determine his future in the league. He’s just got to develop his shot. Being able to play both guard spots, at his size, is going to help him. He can really guard.

Eastern Conference Executive 3: He was kind of put in on the back burner earlier in the year until Jett (Howard) got hurt, and then he started to shine and bloom. He’s a guy that, when I saw Michigan practice last year, I told the coaches I thought he had a really good chance to be pretty good. He can handle it, he can shoot it, he’s almost as good a shooter as Jett. And he can put it on the floor and do things that Jett can’t do.

They both struggle a little bit defensively. But I think Kobe has a chance. The thing I’m concerned about with Kobe, and this may be strange, but if he gets drafted too soon, by the wrong type of team, he could struggle a little bit. Because he’s so young physically, and probably a little bit mentally. He’s one of those guys that if he gets drafted a little bit later than where the mocks have him, I think he might not play as quickly, but I think he might be in a better situation. ’Cause he’s probably going to be on a team that has some vets he can learn from. He’s with a team that doesn’t have to throw him out there, that can develop him until he gets better.

Nick Smith
Eastern Conference Executive 4: Boy, I’m on the fence on him. I still think somebody might take him late in the lottery or mid-first round. I have him at maybe 16 or 17. And yet, I know there are people who like him well enough that they might jump ahead of that. When you’re a guy like him, you’ve got to be a better shooter than he is. He was back and forth. I thought he did a really good job of competing. When he came back after being out, I guess he wasn’t quite ready. I don’t think it’s fair to say he didn’t come to play. He wasn’t physically ready. I don’t think he had the best advice, the way they handled things. Now, the injury was legit. So I don’t question that. In time, he gets in the weight room and gets stronger, and I think he’s OK. I think he’ll be fine.

Eastern Conference Executive 2: He’s stronger than you think. His arms are three times bigger than KD’s were when he came in.

Western Conference Scout 2: He’s 19. What’s he going to look like when he’s 23, when it really matters? He’s not going to look like this. He’s tall enough, so he’s all right. He’s got length. He’s a good athlete. He can score. This year was really disjointed. People discount this, but he didn’t play all summer, because he had the knee operation. He missed three, four, five, six months of basketball. I’m just talking about shooting. Jumping rope. Weight work. It was all rehab. So he comes back to Arkansas … and the guy dropped out of school. … You have to take that into account. If he’s drafted, ‘Hey, dude, this is a business. This is a routine. You’re in here every day at 8:30, and we’re lifting, and we’re shooting, and we’re jumping rope, and then we’re going to go run stadium steps, and you’re coming back at 6, and we’re going to make 500 3s,’ and that’s what he does. He’s really talented. I think he’ll be fine. … Nick Smith can get buckets. When he’s healthy, he gets buckets.

The next level of guard prospects may not be the elite talents that some rated above them are projected to be, but many possess one or more elite traits or skills. Xavier’s Colby Jones was second team All-Big East this past season, had a true shooting percentage of 58.0 and shot nearly 38 percent on 3s, a huge improvement from the 29 percent he shot from deep as a sophomore. UConn’s Jordan Hawkins is as pure a shooter as you’ll find in the draft this year, helping lead the Huskies to a national championship and making the NCAA All-Tournament team with sick range on high volume, putting at least some NBA types in mind of fellow Husky Ray Allen.

Ohio State freshman Brice Sensabaugh is a three-level bucket; the Buckeyes struggled as a team in the Big Ten, but Sensabaugh was All-Rookie on merit, shooting better than 40 percent behind the arc and leading the team in scoring. Brandin Podziemski transferred from Illinois to Santa Clara and excelled in the WCC, leading the conference in rebounding (8.8) and finishing third in scoring (19.9). Belmont’s Ben Sheppard helped himself immensely with a strong showing in Chicago, leaving him positioned as a potential late first-rounder.

Duke’s Dariq Whitehead started off very slow offensively as a freshman while recovering from offseason foot surgery, came on strong in the middle of the Blue Devils’ season, then tapered off again toward the season’s end as his foot began bothering him again — and after the season, it was determined a bone in his foot didn’t heal after the initial operation last year, requiring additional surgery this spring.

Colby Jones
College Assistant Coach 5 (his team played Xavier): When he was a freshman, I told our coach, he’s a pro. I’m telling you. He’s big, he’s strong, he’s athletic. Reminds me a little of Josh Hart — that same kind of body, same kind of whatever — is he a three, what is he? I love him. He was my favorite player in the league. Athletic, really strong. I like him a lot. He really got better as he went on. … He wasn’t just relying on trying to prove he was a jump shooter, even though he got better in that area. He’s a problem in transition. Not a great ballhandler but good enough to get to his spots. He really improved his 3-point shooting. When he first came in we kind of played off of him, kind of cat and moused him and made him shoot jump shots. But this year, he was making 3s. When he’s making 3s, he’s pretty hard to guard. And he can post.

I just like the fact that he competes. He’s not cool. Some of these guys are cool and they play cool. He’s not like that. That’s why I fell in love with the kid. I just like his whole DNA. He’s one of the best defenders in the league. He can guard one through four because he’s such a tough competitor. Physical, doesn’t back down. I might be overselling him, but I’ve watched him play for three years, and he’s my scout. I’ve watched him a ton, beyond watching him on TV. I’m glad he’s gone, put it that way.

College Assistant Coach 6 (his team played Xavier): I haven’t figured out how good he is. I think he’s good. I’m not going to say I get unbelievably excited. He’s got a great frame. I like him. Plays hard, does all the other little stuff. He don’t impact the game the way a Jordan Hawkins does, the way an Andre Jackson does. I’m not sure what he’s elite at. He’s good at a lot of things.

College Head Coach 2 (his team played Xavier): Interesting one. He has a chance to be good too, but at 6-6, 6-7, I think he needs to be a little bit better defensively in order to have an impact. You have to think about who he’s going to be going up against each night. I do think he has a chance to be good. Defensively, he’s got to have a little bit more dog mentality. The other part of it is, will he be able to shoot it well enough and consistently enough to really make an impact? I do believe this, again, it all depends on where he’s drafted and what they do with his development that will say everything. … In college, you can get away with some of that stuff and still have an impact on the game. In the pros, they’ll just not guard him if he’s not willing to shoot. They just won’t guard him. Now it’s like, if you won’t guard him, can he still have an impact on the game?

Jordan Hawkins
Western Conference Executive 3: How can he not make it — unless he’s just the worst human being, a non-worker, a horrible teammate? And that doesn’t look like that’s the case. He’s by far the best shooter of the bunch, standstill and moving without. How can he not have a 10- to 12-year NBA career as just a backup in that role? Where else are guys like him playing? They’re not in the G League. They’re not in Europe. They’re not in China. They’re not in Australia. Guys like him, they get second, third, fourth chances (in the NBA). He has a skill. He can shoot the ball. If he’s able to get some imagination and wiggle and be able to create and finish, then you’re getting something even more than that, maybe, in two, three years.

He may become a full-time starter. I just don’t know how this kid fails. I think his ceiling and upside isn’t as much as Keyonte (George) and Anthony (Black), but this kid is just solid. You’re hitting a double, and you may be able to stretch it into a triple. …

After maybe Gradey ****, he may be the next-best shooter in the draft. And you could argue he maybe is better than Gradey. I don’t know how he fails, except maybe it’s the expectation of him being able to immediately be a rotational piece on a top sixth or seventh conference-finishing team. (Dan) Hurley coaches hard, and he’s been able to shine under some pressurized situations.

The one thing I really like about him is he sticks with it. He may go through a half and he may be 1-of-8. Second half, he’s able to bounce back, and he’s on to the next shot. He doesn’t dwell on it. And then he goes 4-of-6 from 3 and winds up with 18, four and three. I admire that in this kid. Some people go hide, and maybe don’t take that shot. This kid does. … He’s not a non-defender. He competes. He plays hard. I don’t think that’s going to be an issue.

College Assistant Coach 5 (his team played UConn): The thing with him is, I like him. Didn’t love him. I liked him. I’m just like, if he’s not wide open, is he going to be able to take hits? He’s playing against grown men now, and he’s thin; he has kind of a kid body. I’m sure you can get bigger and stronger, but going in, I just don’t see it physically.

The shooting skills are there. It’s not like he has the jets where he’s just going to blow by people. His handle’s not like that, where at the end of the shot, he’s going to break down whoever and get to where he needs to be. At UConn, he was able to shoot whenever he wanted; they ran him off of screens, catch-and-shoot guy. It wasn’t like he was coming off of ball screens, or doing much off the bounce.

That would be my concern. Can he do that (in the NBA), and physically, can he hold up? But everyone tells me he’s a great, great kid, hard worker. I haven’t heard anything negative about the kid at all. … He wasn’t as engaged at that (defensive) end. Totally opposite of going at Colby. We would go at him, try to exploit him.

College Assistant Coach 6 (his team played UConn): I love Jordan. … He found a way to win. Tough, crying after they lost (in high school). He’s just a competitor. He finds a way. He’s one of them dudes like Kevin Durant; don’t let his body get in the way. When he was a little kid, he did everything full speed. You watch him play, he cuts full speed, comes off screens full speed, never stops moving. He’s an elite shot maker. And he’s a better athlete than you think he is. Ain’t many dudes that can do what he does. Duncan (Robinson) can move a little like that, but he don’t have that kind of athleticism, the other components, like Jordan. He can shoot it. Also knows how to get to his midrange. One of them teams like Golden State or San Antonio, a team that values ball movement, player movement, you’ll get tired of checking him.
A two parter. See below.
 
Brandin Podziemski
College Head Coach 3 (his team played Santa Clara): He’s really good with the ball. He can really shoot. He’s got deep range. He’s got a good body and good size. … We just tried to stay attached to him, keep him inside the line, make him make some decisions. We were attentive to him from the beginning of the game. And we shot the crap out of the ball. Certainly efficient from 3. Good in the midrange. They fixed some things. …

They were taking hard 2s at the rim (early in the season). As the year went on and teams played him that way, he got really good at 2s and pull-ups, not all the way down where he was shooting over 7-footers. I caught several of his games later on in the season. He’s just a really good player. He can really score. The Illinois coaches told us he would have days in practice where he would just kill it. The starters couldn’t stop him. Getting out there with Herb (Sendek), he was on the court all the time. He didn’t feel like he had to do it all in one possession, play though mistakes, keep shooting.

Brice Sensabaugh
College Assistant Coach 3 (his team played Ohio State): It went from, he didn’t play his junior year of high school because of the knee injury. He was very under-recruited. He’s got a legit NBA body. Bonzi Wells, but maybe even a little bigger. He’s hungry to score. If you let him get to his left hand, he’s big and strong enough to raise up over you. Great in the midrange and he’s good enough to get by you if you put a bigger guy on him. Good cutter. We wanted to force him right. He’s a pro going left. … He’s a little like Hood-Schifino; can he become a good defender (in time, because he’s so young?

Western Conference Scout 2: He’s a professional scorer. What I saw him do to (North Carolina’s) Leaky Black in the Garden, what I saw him to do Caleb McConnell at Rutgers, who was the (co-) defensive player of the year in the Big Ten, was a joke. Now, he doesn’t guard anybody. He doesn’t even try. I get it. But, at pick 30? He’s going to be in the game, and there’s always going to be some mutt you can guard. There just is. Go guard (Rudy) Gobert, come up with something.

Can (Deni) Avdija score? Not really. And if you can’t, then we can’t play you; we’ll just send you to the G League. But you have to have some kind of pride, right? Give me an effort. Defense, to me, is effort, obviously. But understanding the defensive game plan. What are we trying to do? Are we going to blitz pick and rolls? What’s our rotation pattern? If you’re smart enough to understand that, at least you’re in the right area. Because at the other end, he can score.

Leaky Black is an elite defender. They called timeout on consecutive plays, and (Ohio State coach) Chris Holtman goes, ‘OK, here’s the play; get the (bleep) out of the way and my man’s going to go hoop.’ He got a bucket. He got another bucket. This is a freshman against a fifth-year senior, long, 6-9. And (Sensabaugh) said ‘(bleep) you.’

College Assistant Coach 4 (his team played Ohio State): It had to be something, because they were far too talented to struggle during the season the way they did. He’s super talented. He’s just a baller. Really made changes to his body, got in better shape, leaned out. He knows how to score. Can go get a bucket whenever you need one, can go get his own shot. You don’t see too many guys like that any more. He had an unbelievable year in my opinion. I was looking at his numbers and saying, ‘He’s doing all of this, and he’s not even in shape.’ That was always my thing. Somebody get him, and I don’t know if he’s lazy; I don’t know his habits. But if somebody gets him to really lock in on the things he needs to do from a physical/body standpoint, he should have a chance to be really good. He knows how to play.

Ben Sheppard
College Head Coach 4 (his team played Belmont): I’m glad he’s gone. I didn’t really know Ben until this year. I was kind of thinking, he’s going to have a chance. Somebody asked me (before the season) what I thought, and I was thinking he’s probably going to be a second round, two-way guy. The thing that separates him, and obviously, Belmont has a great program, and they’re well-coached. But he never stops moving. He reminds me in a way of Rip Hamilton. Rip has that lankier body, and Rip’s probably a couple of inches taller. But he never stops moving. He’s always cutting. He really runs the wing, every time. He comes off screens hard, every time. He’s got great size, he shoots it. He’s a really, really good competitor… He’s going to be a guy, four-year guy, gonna be ready for whatever happens — two-way, G League for a minute, then called back up. He’s going to have the maturity and experience to do whatever they need, until he finds his total niche. …

I think his best attribute is he’s got great size and length, but he is a really, really good athlete. When you talk about cutting and running and moving, he does that every time, every possession, as hard as he can. That’s the separator for him. When you watch old Pistons tapes, Rip Hamilton’s coming off a stagger here, baseline runner here, catch, face, knock it down…

Ben never stops moving. Everything they did ran through Ben. There’s three or four actions they’re going to go to, and it’s going to Ben. They love to lift the floor, quick reversal to him, floor’s lifted, and he’s going to catch (and) rip. In situations like that, any time he catches on the wing, we would want him to go back middle. If not, he’s so athletic, he can get to the basket: one, two dribbles, and he’s at the rim. … No catch and shoot 3s for him. He shoots it too good. He’s just so efficient. … He could go to a really good team, because he’s not going to be a lottery pick, and he’s going to have the maturity to fit in with that team.

College Assistant Coach 7 (his team played Belmont): He does a good job, and Casey Alexander’s a good coach. Number one is transition. Belmont, over the course of the years he’s been there, and even without him, they’ve always pushed the pace in transition. We would use him to show our guys, here’s how you sprint in transition. Here’s how you sprint a cut. Everything he does, he does with a purpose.

Number one was transition, just getting out in transition, whether that’s running the wing and getting to the rim, whether that’s running the wing and spotting up for 3s. … In half court, they did have some actions for him, some backdoor actions, some stuff to get him some shots. He can play on ball or he can play without the ball. Legit 6-5, 6-6. Has good ball skills. Even when he’s off the ball, he’s sprinting his backdoor cuts, his sprinting his shake or lifts from the corner to the wing to get open. He has such good size that he can spot up and score over you. He has a good feel for the ball, whether he’s making a play for himself or for his teammates.

He was first team All-Defense in the Missouri Valley. Not an overwhelming athlete, but he’s a good athlete. Doesn’t have overwhelming length, but he’s got good length. Doesn’t have overwhelming quickness, but he’s got good quickness. And he really competes. What really helps him is he’s knowledgeable. He’s got a high IQ. And he competes.

He understands what he can do defensively, and what he can’t. I don’t think he gets outside of himself trying to reach or gamble. He plays good positional defense. Keeps his guy in front. Uses his length to contest shots. He plays with an edge. … After his third 3, he hit one right in front of our bench. And I knew our bench had said something to him before he shot it. He just looked at our bench and smiled after he made it. I walked over to our bench and said, ‘Listen, here’s the deal tonight. Y’all can talk to anyone you want on Belmont except Ben Sheppard. Leave that dude alone. He’s already going. Leave that dude alone. Talk to the rest of them, but don’t talk to him.’

Dariq Whitehead
College Assistant Coach 8 (his team played Duke): He made big shots (against us). He just has this ultra pro demeanor to him. Made big shots. He may not do anything (early), but then he’s going to catch it, pump fake it, rip you to the rim, finish over the rim. I think he would have been better under Coach K than (Jon) Scheyer. I don’t think Scheyer did a bad job, but I think early on, everybody was just kind of figuring it out. He was in, he was out, he was just OK early.

I think he had a bigger rep coming out of high school. I don’t know; did Duke say, ‘Listen, you’ve got to leave?’ Not pushing him out, but I don’t know. He’s a good player. He’s very, very talented. They had all those guys, and you had (Kyle) Filipowski trying to find his way. Sometimes when you have all those guys on a team, sometimes it can hurt you.

(Whitehead) was good. He made some shots. Legit 6-6, maybe 6-7. Freak athlete. Probably wanted to do more. … You could tell he was a little frustrated on the court. I watched him on Team Durant a couple of years ago, with him, Judah (Mintz), Chas Kelley, all those guys. And he was terrific. Very, very smooth. Big kid. He’s a prototypical NBA wing. He’s your 3-and-D wing.

College Head Coach 5 (his team played Duke): I saw him a lot in high school. I don’t think this year at Duke is indicative of who he is. Obviously, he had the injury. The thing he never had at Duke was the explosiveness he had in high school, and I would attribute that to the injury. He can really shoot the ball, but you never really saw any pop, like you saw in high school. In high school he could get to the basket, and he could finish on top of you. You just didn’t see that this year, and I’m assuming it was because of the injury.

But he can really, really shoot. Even guys you see in college that are like, you say they’re really good athletes, it seems they get bouncier when they get to the league. … that’s their job. You’re not worried about school. You’re just training, you’re just hooping. … They had all gotten better (by the end of the season). They were all more comfortable with what they were doing, with the system, with the style.

It was very different from how it was with Coach K, some of the things they did offensively. And also, they had a very young group. They had freshmen all across the board, that played an integral part. … he was OK (defensively). He was someone we tried to pick on. And it’s tough for freshmen. It’s tough for freshmen, period, but especially on the perimeter. You’re just not used to guarding out there.

There’s potential high-level talent that should be there in the late first or in the second round. UConn junior Andre Jackson was a big part of the Huskies’ national championship run, and he has NBA-level defensive chops. But he shot exactly 29.3 percent (49-of-167) over three seasons in Storrs, which must be corrected at the next level. Sidy Cissoko was one of the “other” guards with Scoot Henderson at G League Ignite, but the French ballhandler is 19 and 6-8, with a lot of potential. UCLA’s Amari Bailey made the Pac-12 All-Freshman team and stayed in the draft after a good showing in Chicago. Penn State’s senior guard duo of Seth Lundy and Jalen Pickett have suitors; the 6-6 Lundy shot 40 percent from deep, while Pickett was first team All-Big Ten.

Houston’s Marcus Sasser was the AAC Player of the Year and shot nearly 40 percent on 3s the last two seasons. Isaiah Wong wound up returning to Miami when he got a better NIL deal from the Hurricanes but backed it up with an outstanding season, winning ACC Player of the Year in leading the Canes to the Final Four. NC State’s quicksilver Terquavion Smith was second in the ACC in scoring and was second team All-Conference. Baylor’s Adam Flagler won’t go as high in the draft as his teammate Keyonte George, but it was Flagler who led the Bears in scoring (15.6 ppg) while making first team All-Big 12. TCU’s Mike Miles is a two-time second team All-Big 12 selection who was second in the conference (17.9 ppg) in scoring this past season.

Andre Jackson
College Assistant Coach 5 (his team played UConn): A wild card. He’s probably got three, four inches on Colby Jones in terms of length, and Colby is nowhere near the athlete that Jackson is. Jackson is a supreme athlete. High flyer in transition. Everybody talks about his shooting, and that’s what he’s going to do for a living, so I’m sure that’ll get better. But everything else, the way the game is now in the open court, with the size and length, he can guard at a high level. And he takes pride in guarding. A lot of kids don’t. He’s intriguing, because it’s kind of hard to pass on him, because he’s so athletic and long, and teams are playing small ball now.

Obviously his shot needs work, and I don’t know how that’s going to play out. But if he had that at that level, he’s a freaking stud. They were saying that about Lonzo Ball, that he couldn’t shoot coming out; he had that weird, funky looking shot. Not saying that’s (Jackson), but it’s the same kind of scenario. He’s coming in with the rap of not being able to shoot great. But that’s his livelihood now, so he’s in the gym working, they’ve got all those shooting coaches and stuff like that. He’ll figure that out. Everything else, the box is checked. And he’s a high IQ guy too. He really knows how to play. Great feel.

College Assistant Coach 6 (his team played UConn): We didn’t even play him (defensively). We put a foot in the paint. We (Rajon) Rondo’d him. He does affect the game in every other way. I just think it’s going to take him a little bit longer because his shooting is so far behind. I know you’re going to think I’m crazy, but he’s got some Draymond (Green) in him. He still can play even though he can’t shoot. He’s disruptive, he’s tough, he’s physical. And he don’t mind doing it.

I may not take one shot in a game, but I’m going to affect the game defensively, like Draymond does. Not a lot of kids buy into taking just one shot in a whole game. In this day and age, if you have a wide-open shot, you may take it just to prove you can shoot it. … He’s not going to take the bait to take 10 3s. That’s the only component that concerns me. Everything else, he competes, he wins. The passing ability, the athleticism, are all elite. If you back up off him, he’s one of the few kids I’ve seen if you back off of him, he’ll do a dribble handoff, a ball screen or something, and then you’ve got Jordan Hawkins coming off (with) a naked shot, because his man was dropped all the way back. Very selfless.

Sidy Cissoko
Eastern Conference Executive 5: I like Cissoko a little bit — he’s really improved over the course of the season and his confidence is growing. Good frame and motor.

Western Conference Scout 2: He can really pass, he can really defend, he can really rebound. So you’re like, they’re so good at everything else, we can live with this one piece he doesn’t do as well. You’re going to have to look at Cissoko similarly.

Western Conference Scout 1: Cissoko seems to be a little bit green, but physically he’s a brute. He’s a big, strong kid. Pretty good athlete. Didn’t really impress me with his shooting, but we saw him early. The last time we saw them was the first of the year. Both of those kids are guys that are physically, they have something to work with. … Cissoko is physically very mature for his age, somewhat fearless when he drives to the basket. Mostly a right-hand driver, but he’ll get to the rim. He’ll bully guys. He’ll put his head down and put his shoulder into your chest and knock you back. Cissoko will (try defensively). From what I see, he’s pure. He’s got an innocence about him, that he just wants to go out there and play hard.

Amari Bailey
Eastern Conference Executive 4: When you look at UCLA, he’s playing there, and they’ve got Tyger (Campbell) dominating. He showed some ball skills that he didn’t get to show at UCLA. I don’t think he jumped a huge amount, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he ended up in the latter stages of the first round. He may or may not have been there (before), but I think he solidified that. Overall, it was a little bit of what you expect, because there’s always one or two guys who do a little bit better than you expect.

Western Conference Scout 3: Amari played relatively well in the combine, and I think he helped himself. I think some of the questions were if could he run a team and play the point, and I think he proved that. He had a few games when he was pretty high in his turnovers, but I think he proved that he can play point and had some versatility and could play multiple positions. He played pretty well there.

Seth Lundy
College Assistant Coach 3 (his team played Penn State): Great size, he defends, and he shoots the s— out of it on 3s. They were using Pickett, Pickett would kill you by backing you down. They’d start him at the top of the key and shoot over the top. If you ran anybody at him, he would just throw it to your guy. That’s where Lundy and a couple of other guys, they were really good. Lundy did not try to do anything more than what he was capable of doing.

College Assistant Coach 4 (his team played Penn State): I like Lundy a lot. Definitely a sticker, a shooter. Can really shoot from the perimeter. Good rebounder. I think he needs more to be playing off of somebody, even though he can put the ball on the floor for one or two dribbles. Didn’t see him much in pick-and-roll. I think he’d be more of a four than he would be a three. Actually rebounds well. Good strength. Should be a pretty solid defender as well.

Marcus Sasser
College Head Coach 6 (his team played Houston): A lot like Gabe Vincent. Undersized, can shoot the 3 ball, can get his shot, can finish at the rim. I like his feel. Another one that’s not afraid of the moment. Any time they were in tough games and it was late, he was running to go get that ball. Not to squeeze the floor and take away the spacing, but he was very comfortable with having it in his hands, making plays off the screen-and-roll. He’s very comfortable coming off of pindowns, catch and shoot.

Isaiah Wong
College Assistant Coach 9 (his team played Miami): He’s who he is. He’s been good the whole time he’s been there … two-foot finisher, really good off of two feet. Plays at his own pace. But he’s a good finisher. Hangs in the air, can finish around the basket. His shooting is good when he’s got time, room and rhythm. I don’t know if he’s a pullup off the ball screen guy, but just a solid, really solid player. Never sped up. Can play open floor, can get out in transition, fill the lane. But he kind of takes what they give him. … He’s one of them dudes that you look up in a couple of years, and he’s one of them Heat guards — ‘Damn, where did Isaiah Wong come from? Just producing.’ That’s who he is, 6-3, maybe. Probably not as big as they list him. But he’s going to freaking be on the team and make shots. Exactly what the Heat got. He’s one of them dudes.

College Head Coach 4 (his team played Miami): Taking the physicality out (of the pro game), I think that helps him for that league. I think he could be a guy that makes it. And just as a guy, I don’t know if he’s a guy that’s drafted, but he could be a guy that makes a team at some point – go through the G League, get called up and stick. He can really score. And he can make tough shots. And he’s a strong, physical guard that’s creative off the bounce. He can change speeds. He’s really improved his shooting during his time there. When he first got there, you gave him the jump shot and just tried to keep him out of the paint. Now he’s a guy that, you have to guard him out there. And then he’s so creative. And now he’s added strength, and he’s athletic.

Terquavion Smith
College Assistant Coach 9 (his team played NC State): Shot maker, shot maker, shot maker. Big time athlete. Supremely confident in his ability to get his own. Got better this year assisting, making plays for others. Offensively, he’s a talent. Big-time talent. Shoots it from deep, good in transition, good size for the position. I don’t know if he’s a natural point guard; he’s more of a scoring point guard. Confident. Looks like he’s having fun out there.

He’s capable (defensively) but (NC State coach Kevin) Keatts didn’t ask him to do that a ton. But he can. He’ll try to stay in front of the ball. He’s athletic enough. Just not strong enough. Will have to put on some weight and get stronger. He’s a better-shooting Bones Hyland, from a size standpoint. Open floor, jet, can finish above the rim, especially going left – really good going left. Three-level scorer. Confident putting the ball in the bucket. A lot of middle ball screens, transition, early shooting for him. Sometimes he had the ball; sometimes he played without the ball. Middle ball screen stuff. I’d be shocked if he goes past 35. If he’s at 40, that’s a hell of a gift for somebody at 40.

College Assistant Coach 7 (his team played NC State): He absolutely destroyed us. Shooter, scorer. He’s one of those kids that, he’s a hooper. You see him in the park, he’s a hooper. Foot is on the gas at all times. He’s not going to let up. Thin, wiry, but he scores it. Very similar to Bones. That’s him. He’s probably got a little less ballhandling and wiggle, but he can get where he wants ’cause he’s fast. He’s good. Elusive.

(NC State’s) going to pick you up full court and turn you. Some of it is false advertising and false pressure; they just wanted as many possessions as they could because they shoot a lot of 3s. But he’s competitive. He’s a good player. When you look at the NBA, those guys are so, so good. … I don’t know. Are they going to say in the NBA, come in and just be a big-time scorer? I don’t know.

Adam Flagler
College Assistant Coach 2 (his team played Baylor): My favorite player in the league, by far. By far. Not the most NBA prospect or whatever, but I said that throughout the year — this dude is going to find a way to stick in the NBA. He just plays within himself, makes the right play every time. He really, really shoots it, and shoots it with range. He’s just smaller. He’s probably 6 feet. I don’t know what they list him at. He isn’t huge. He doesn’t get off the ground to explode, but he sees it. He makes all the passes. He’s composed. Good physicality. Can guard fine. I love him.

If I had a team and had to take a point guard, it would be him. And that’s in college. I know it’s not the NBA, where they’re probably 6-4 or something. He’s not Davion Mitchell, but he’s got that toughness about him, where I just feel he has a will to win. I couldn’t say enough good things about him. He’s a competitor, plays the right way, does it the right way.

Jalen Pickett
College Assistant Coach 4 (his team played Penn State): Pickett came out of nowhere. If this was five to seven years ago, he’d probably be looked at in a different light. He was able to control the game from that position because of his strength and his ability to score around the basket. Excellent passer, floor general. Didn’t really see or know how well he defends because they did a lot of switching. He’s a very smart player, but I don’t know about him having to guard, getting over screens. Solid player. I would say he’s a streaky shooter at best in the perimeter, obviously much better with his back to the basket, getting into the lane and making plays.

Mike Miles
College Assistant Coach 2 (his team played TCU): Like Mike a lot. He has an elite burst. Somebody that can get by guys. Mike has a little more athleticism than he showed. But he was injured off and on both of these last two years. … He’s a scorer. He’s undersized. I don’t know if he’s a point guard. I think he knows he’s supposed to be, so he’s trying to do those things. But at the end of the day, I think he’s thinking ‘score.’

Length bothers Mike. We’d put a 6-3 guy on him and you don’t have to get too close to him, because he can blow by you, but you can still affect his shot…. If Mike was 6-4, he’d probably be really a dude. But I think he’s probably 6-2, if that. Good player. But he’s more kind of an undersized, combo two to me. He doesn’t have that elite speed. He’s got a good burst, don’t get me wrong. He does have a stop to start. He’s got a little floater. He knows how to score. To me, it isn’t the dude where you say ‘Oh, s—, you can’t keep this dude in front.’ He’s not that, to me, where you just struggle to keep them out of the paint. I felt like you could sit down and guard him with an average defender, which probably, at the NBA level, is going to be an average defender plus some length too.
 


‘What does he do?’ NBA Draft scouts offer brutally candid views on 50 top 2023 prospects

Good news, hoopheads and draftniks. Finch is back at center stage. And he’s ready for his close-up.

For the scant few around the globe who are unfamiliar with Finch, here’s the deal. As I have done each year for the last two decades, I spoke last week with six NBA scouts to ask for their views on 50 of the top prospects heading into Thursday’s NBA Draft. I granted each of my scouts anonymity so they could be candid in their assessments. Then I grabbed snippets from all those conversations and stitched them together as if they were spoken by a single person. I named my amalgam of scouts Finch, because that was the surname of Scout, the protagonist in the classic novel “To Kill A Mockingbird”. (As always, I credit my former Sports Illustrated colleague Alex Wolff for coming up with that pseudonym for a story he wrote for the magazine in 2001.)

As you read Finch’s take on all these players, you might think he’s crotchety and overly critical. But that’s only because I prodded him to inveigh on each player’s primary weaknesses. We know these guys are good — that’s why they are on this list. The value in this exercise is to lean into the various reasons why they might not make it. The scouts’ opinions were far from unanimous, of course, but by talking to six of them, I was able to glean a general consensus on where these players stand.

Finch’s takes might be tough, but at least they’re honest. And given his diligence, insight and long track record of success, they are also spot-on. Here, then, is Finch’s assessments of my Fab 50. Read on, if you can handle the truth.

Amari Bailey, 6-5 freshman guard, UCLA. “He turned the ball over too much. He played off the ball this year, but he’s gonna have to have the ball in his hands to have success. Will he be able to defend twos? Probably not, because he has average speed. His 3-point shooting isn’t where it needs to be, but it will get better. I liked how he battled through things at UCLA. Mick (Cronin) coached him hard but the kid did not blink.”

Emoni Bates, 6-10 sophomore guard, Eastern Michigan. “He’s not even on our board. Just too much of a circus. He has a scorer’s mentality but bad shot selection. He’s one of those athletic-looking guys that’s not really athletic. He has no interest in playing defense or utilizing his other abilities. He needs to learn how to play with other good players. Very talented skill-wise. He was good at the combine but his body needs a lot of work. I’ve heard he’s done a pretty good job during his workouts.”

Anthony Black, 6-7 freshman point guard, Arkansas. “Guys with that kind of size and ability to handle the ball are successful. He’s gonna become a better finisher as he gets stronger. I’m a little concerned about his lack of foot speed and his shooting, but I think he’s smart enough to figure it out. People are comparing him to Josh Giddy. His shot is going to have to come around so defenders aren’t going under screens against him.”

Kobe Brown, 6-7 senior forward, Missouri. “I’m probably not as high on him as the consensus. I think he’s undersized. I struggle to figure out who he defends. I think the coaching staff at Missouri put him in a role where he was able to excel. He’s done a good job with his conditioning, but that could be a problem down the road. He shot it well last season for the first time in his career. Is that real? The question is whether he’s going to make it athletically. Really high-character kid.”

Kobe Bufkin, 6-5 sophomore guard, Michigan. “Love him. He’s rising big-time. He’s good in the pick and roll, makes good decisions, but needs to become a better shooter. He needs to put on some weight, but you can say that about just about every kid in this draft. I like that he didn’t play a lot as a freshman, but he didn’t pout and transfer. He doubled up his effort and pushed his way into the rotation. He has a scoring mentality but he can also make plays for his teammates, which is intriguing.”

Noah Clowney, 6-10 freshman forward, Alabama. “He’s a tricky one for me. The guy shot 28 percent from 3, and Nate Oats let him shoot it. A future play. Rebounds, blocks shots, capable passer, versatile defensively. He needs to get much stronger. He’s not fluid with the ball. He’s catching and rebounding but not doing a whole lot off the dribble. He didn’t have a great season but you can see the pathway. Really, really nice kid, but you’re looking at two or three years until you can get anything out of him on an NBA court.”

Ricky Council IV, 6-6 junior guard, Arkansas. “If he fails it will be because of his shooting. He has a motor, he’s tough, physical, strong. He’s what you want from an athletic 3-and-D wing in the NBA. He has the D but doesn’t have the consistent 3. Can he get there? I’m not sure his scoring will translate to the NBA because guys are gonna play off him. He’s small for a two guard.”

Gradey ****, 6-8 freshman forward, Kansas. “One of the top shooters in the draft. Plays with swag. He’s surprisingly tough for a shooter. He’s not afraid of competition. Takes charges, tries to rebound. His weakness is defending the perimeter. If he’s guarding athletic wings, that will be a challenge. He’s not creating off the bounce yet so he’ll need someone to get him shots. My concern is who’s he gonna guard, but the way things are in the NBA with all the switching, he’ll be fine. When you’re 6-8 and can shoot, you don’t have to be a great athlete. He’s not just a shooter, he’s a pretty good basketball player who can put it on the floor and get to the rim. He’s a goofy, funny kind of personality.”

Adam Flagler, 6-3 senior guard, Baylor. “Not a fan at all. He’s a good shooter, not a great shooter. He’s not ready to play point at our level. Tough kid, has some ability to score, but there aren’t too many little guards playing in the NBA. The other question is, can he find a balance between scoring and making plays for his teammates? I like that he’s been in a winning situation. He has to overcome being a little smaller by being a dog, and by playing hard and smart and efficient.”

Keyonte George, 6-4 freshman guard, Baylor. “Is he a two or a one? If he’s a two, he’s a little small. He can be a creative scorer but he didn’t make plays for his teammates. I think he takes bad shots. He has to learn to be more efficient. The question is whether he will commit to the defensive end. He’s not going to be an NBA playmaker. He came a long way in terms of his work ethic and maturity.”

Jordan Hawkins, 6-5 sophomore guard, UConn. “Best shooter in the draft. To me, he’s like Devin Booker. Devin wasn’t that well thought of coming out of college. Has the ability to catch and shoot, or score off one or two bounces. He has a quick release. He has some talent defensively, but he has to get stronger, and you wonder how much he will buy into that. Physical play does bother him. You worry about him getting pushed around. You hope in time he can become a pretty good defender. He has to at least not be a net negative on defense.”

Scoot Henderson, 6-2 point guard, G League Ignite. “Absolute specimen of an athlete. He’s a very good midrange shooter but I don’t think he’s a good 3-point shooter right now. His teammates love playing with him. I hear nothing but good things about his character and his work ethic. He’s still very young. He had a lot of up-and-down games where he didn’t really show up and compete. His game didn’t evolve much this year. He has all the tools to be an all-star-level point guard. He’s Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Rose. The guy’s a killer.”

Taylor Hendricks, 6-9 freshman forward, UCF. “Love his upside right now. Has a lot of versatility offensively and defensively. He can play the three or the four, and even some small five. He’s not a rim protector, but he gives you that Jaren Jackson type of feel. They had to play him out of position because they weren’t that big. Physical strength is a weakness. He’s got kind of a laid-back personality. He can go through stretches in games where he doesn’t assert himself. His game is just so young right now, but his ceiling is so high.”

Trayce Jackson-Davis, 6-9 senior center, Indiana. “Not a fan. He’s an undersized five who’s not a rim protector and can’t be a switchable defender. He’s gonna have to get some kind of offensive package. Pretty good finisher, good size and strength, not the most athletic but good enough. Can he defend stretch bigs? I think he can facilitate your offense from the middle of the floor. He needs to become a consistent 15- to 17-foot jump shooter. At our level, if you can’t shoot the ball you have to be elite at one other skill.”

Jalen Hood-Schifino, 6-6 freshman point guard, Indiana. “Mature and physical. One of the best ball screen guards in the draft. Streaky 3-point shooter. I worry about his ability to get by people. He needs a ball screen to create an advantage. Not the best athlete, but he plays at a good pace and has a good feel for the game. I love his toughness and character. He’s going to have to improve on his decision making. He predetermines a lot of his decisions, especially coming off ball screens. When he gets around the rim he doesn’t have that pop to him.”

Jett Howard, 6-8 freshman guard, Michigan. “I think he’s sliding in the draft right now. His lack of rebounding is extremely concerning. He doesn’t go in to fight for rebounds. He’s kind of lazy off the ball defensively. He just doesn’t know how to use all his tools right now. Skilled, high IQ, good size for a two guard, but he has average athleticism. Is he a two or a three? I wonder if the kid works hard enough. I think he plays in the NBA for a while because of his size and shooting ability.”

Andre Jackson, 6-6 junior forward, UConn. “If he could shoot at all he’d be a lottery pick. Competitive locker room leader. Mr. Utility Guy. He can do all the Draymond Green stuff. He won’t fit in everywhere. He came to Chicago for the combine and it looked like he was trying to change his shot from what he did during the season. It was awkward. His shot’s gotta be torn down and rebuilt. He has elite athleticism and the ability to make plays, but he has to be in the right situation.”

G.G. Jackson, 6-9 freshman forward, South Carolina. “Classic high-risk, high-reward. From a talent standpoint he could be first team all-NBA someday. He’s a jack of all trades, master of none right now. Plays with a decent motor. Doesn’t have a clear position yet. Played like a guy that was trying to make it to the NBA instead of trying to win games, but remember, he should have been a senior in high school. He went into a situation at South Carolina where he had to be the guy, and I don’t know that he was mature enough to handle it. He needs a team that will be patient with him.”

Jaime Jaquez, 6-7 senior forward, UCLA. “Winner. He’s a less athletic version of Andre Jackson. He can help you win by doing all the little things. His weakness is athleticism and quickness. His shooting is solid, but he still needs to become consistent. High-character guy, good work ethic, was obviously a tremendous leader. I think with a more reduced role, he’ll be even more athletic. At UCLA, I thought he looked tired because he was asked to do so much. Not the best athlete on the floor, but he’s crafty with the ball, and he knows how to draw fouls.”

Keyontae Johnson, 6-6 senior guard, Kansas State. “I like him but he’s frustrating. He can guard threes and fours, maybe some small fives. Needs to get better with his ballhandling. He has slow feet, but he’s a physically strong kid. He’s a dog. He has a tremendous will but there’s some skill stuff he’s gotta get better at. Two or three years ago he was probably a lottery pick. He had the heart problem, but he’s gotten cleared, so I think everybody is comfortable with his medicals.”

Colby Jones, 6-6 junior guard, Xavier. “He leaves you wanting more. I’m trying to figure out what position he is. Good culture guy, all about the right stuff, but will his lack of overall talent catch up to him? He needs to become a more confident shooter. He doesn’t really pop for me. High IQ guy, good playmaker, good defender, has some toughness.”

Maxwell Lewis, 6-7 sophomore guard, Pepperdine. “He’s a mystery man. Is he just a product of playing for a terrible team? He shot it very poorly the second half of the season. Has good length and physical features. He’s a little loose with the ball when he drives, but he’s a good finisher. He has a lot to learn about how to play the game, but if he puts on weight and gets some reps, I think you’ve got a good NBA player. Doesn’t move as great laterally as you want him to. He’s a pretty good athlete in the open floor, which gives you hope he can be that 3-and-D wing everybody looks for.”

Dereck Lively, 7-1 freshman center, Duke. “He could be Tyson Chandler, or he could be Willie Cauley-Stein. He’s got the rim protection, super length, good quickness for his size. He has shown flashes of having a jump shot but needs to develop that. Tremendous athlete, can really run and jump. He didn’t have a big role offensively but it didn’t impact his effort level. Anybody you talk to in his life says the kid is in a really positive frame of mind. He could spend some time in the G League, but from everything I hear he’s one of those guys who’s grateful for any opportunity he gets. I’ve heard whispers about him being a good shooter, but I haven’t seen it yet.”

Chris Livingston, 6-7 freshman forward, Kentucky. “What does he do? He’s not a high-level 3-point shooter, he’s not a high-level creator off the bounce. He can rebound a little. Never did find himself this year at Kentucky. He’s not a consistent jump shooter. He’s just not very skilled. He has good competitiveness, love his character. Later in the season he started to realize who he is, which is a tough, slashing athlete. He’s not a shooter, but he can make shots. He has first-round talent, but he didn’t have a great year.”

Seth Lundy, 6-6 senior guard, Penn State. “I was really impressed with Lundy at the combine. He’s an average athlete but he’s got a lot of confidence, and he can really shoot the ball. He needs to learn how to play against athletic players. Can he make other guys better? He needs to give you a little more on defense than he has in the past. He has never really embraced it. When he gets out of his role of catching and shooting, things go a little awry for him.”

Brandon Miller, 6-9 freshman forward, Alabama. “That’s the man. All you have to do is watch that South Carolina game to see what he’s capable of. He was going through all that trouble and he was still able to lock in. He has the potential to be a good defender at multiple positions. His decision making off the court is definitely a question. In interviewing people and talking to people around him, there’s no concern about his character. He made a bad decision that turned out to be tragic, but from everything I’ve heard he’s not a bad kid. Hopefully he learned his lesson.”

Jordan Miller, 6-7 senior guard, Miami. “I waver on him because he has played the four most of his career. He’s going to have to transition to a three man at our level. He has a solid motor but he’s inconsistent. He wants to be a scorer but doesn’t have a high-level scorer’s mentality. I worry about his lack of athleticism, but I hear he’s got a tremendous work ethic. I just worry for that position, you’re talking about defending some of the best athletes in any sport. He needs the ball to have success and I don’t see him having the ball at our level. He’ll spend a lot of time in the G League.”

Kris Murray, 6-8 junior forward, Iowa. “He can fit in on a team with a bunch of stars. Pretty good shooting threat. His weakness is creating off the bounce. He’s very smooth. There’s a question there about lack of foot speed. He’s a better shooter than his numbers show. He had to take a lot of tough shots at Iowa. He has a really good feel for the game. He has the size and the IQ to be a good role-playing forward in the NBA. I don’t think he’s the toughest cat, but he fits the NBA the way we play now.”

Julian Phillips, 6-8 freshman forward, Tennessee. “Buyer beware. I don’t see it. He’s got length, he’s got athleticism, but he needs to become a reliable shooter. I don’t know how mentally tough he is. His offensive game needs to come around. He’ll be on the floor first because of his defense. He’s a little weak to finish through contact right now. I’ve heard he’s been tremendous in his workouts.”

Jalen Pickett, 6-4 senior guard, Penn State. “He’s the old man at the Y. If he finds a team that appreciates that, he’ll have a place coming off the bench. Strong off the dribble. Can he shoot it consistently enough from 3? I don’t think he’s a sure thing. Not a very good athlete. I’m not sure what his position is. I don’t think he’s gonna be able to guard point guards. He doesn’t shoot with range.”

Olivier-Maxence Prosper, 6-8 junior forward, Marquette. “He’s really made the draft process work for him. He made 3s at the combine and opened people’s eyes, but I don’t know if that’s really indicative of what he can do. Could be a high-level 3-and-D guy. His weaknesses are consistent shooting and ballhandling. He didn’t shoot it well in college. Offensively he’s got a ways to go in terms of his 3-point shooting. Some nights he looks like a big-time player, and some nights you don’t know he’s on the floor. I don’t trust his feel for the game.”

Adama Sanogo, 6–9 junior center, UConn. “I just don’t see him making it. He’s a dinosaur. He’s not a rim protector, not a switchable defender. Great kid, but there may not be a place for him in today’s NBA. He’s going to struggle guarding stretch fives and stretch fours. Sometimes you just run out of talent. Can he make it as a center in this league at his size?”

Marcus Sasser, 6-2 senior guard, Houston. “Love this kid. He has toughness, he has a scorer’s mentality, can score at all three levels. Being able to play point guard will be a determining factor for him, because he’s small at the two spot. Comes from a program that practices as hard as anybody, so he’s not afraid to work. He’s not, like, a jet athlete. He’s gonna be in incredible shape, never gonna get tired. I don’t know if he can create much offensively outside of a stepback right now. He’s a first-round talent but people are afraid of his size.”

Brice Sensabaugh, 6-6 freshman guard, Ohio State. “He’s a very good scorer, but I worry about his body. His lack of defensive ability is a question, or maybe it’s a lack of a desire to play D. I don’t know if the way he scores will translate. He doesn’t rebound, doesn’t defend, not a good passer. He can really shoot, but he’s not a guy that gets all the way to the rim.”

Nick Smith, 6-5 freshman guard, Arkansas. “This was kind of a throwaway year with the knee injuries, and he tried to make up for lost time when he came back. You could tell he was forcing the issue to prove he’s a lottery pick. I’m not sold on him yet. He has to become a better perimeter shooter. He needs to get stronger, because he has a history of being injured. If you go back to his senior year of high school when he played in all those all-star games, a lot of people thought he was the best player at those practices. He doesn’t know a good shot from a bad shot. But for that kid to come back to Arkansas and play in February, to me, that says a lot about him. Because it probably hurt him draft-wise.”

Terquavion Smith, 6-4 sophomore guard, NC State. “I don’t like the way he plays, but he’s athletic and fast, and he can make shots. He could become a good player but he scares me. He’s a scorer more than a shooter. Can’t play without the ball in his hands. He has some defensive capabilities but that’s not what he wants to do. He’s like a Lou Will who comes off the bench and gets you buckets. He took a lot of bad shots in Chicago. I don’t know if he can be a high-usage guard like he was at NC State. His frame is pretty light, so I don’t know if he can handle NBA physicality.”

Julian Strawther, 6-7 junior forward, Gonzaga. “I don’t think he’s as aggressive as he needs to be, but he’s got size, he can shoot it. He’s a plug-and-play guy for a team that’s looking for one. You want him to be a better defender and a better rebounder. He’s a below-average athlete for an NBA wing. It’s questionable if he’s going to be able to get his shot off at our level. He’s got a low release, and he’s a little slow laterally.”

Ausar and Amen Thompson, 6-7 guards, Overtime Elite. “They’re one of the few sets of twins where the talent is pretty equal. They have elite-level speed, quickness, athleticism, versatility, playmaking ability off the bounce. The competition they played against wasn’t very good. None of the OTE guys get better. They’re glorified AAU games. I don’t think they’ll ever be great shooters, but I think they can get to the point where they’re respectable. I like Amen better because he’s more of a true point guard. Their careers will be dictated by how they develop their shots.”

Drew Timme, 6-9 senior forward, Gonzaga. “I hope he makes it, but I just don’t think he can. He scores with his back to the basket, and I don’t think that’s gonna translate to the NBA. He won’t be able to defend anyone. Some guys are just really good college basketball players. He’s a below the rim, undersized center. If he makes it, it’s because of his motor, his toughness and his IQ, but there’s more on the side of why he won’t make it.”

Oscar Tshiebwe, 6-9 senior forward, Kentucky. “He has to improve his shooting but he knows how to go get the ball. He did a workout in Chicago where he shot really well from 15 to 17 feet, and he even made some 3s. More of an offensive rebounder than a defensive rebounder. He’ll struggle to guard stretch fours and fives. He doesn’t have a skill set that’s elite. I don’t know how teams will use him on offense. His hands are just OK, but he’s got a motor and he’s tough and he can rebound the heck out of the ball. I think he would destroy the G League.”

Azuolas Tubelis, 6-11 junior forward, Arizona. “Just not good enough. He’s skilled, but his athleticism is just OK. He’s going to struggle defensively. I don’t see him getting drafted. If he can improve his shooting he has a chance to be a backup big. Banging in the paint will be a problem for him. I don’t think he’s the toughest guy in the world. He’s going to have to be a knockdown shooter in order to make it.”

Jarace Walker, 6-8 freshman forward, Houston. “Great feel and a terrific passer. He can cause offensive mismatch problems because he can take bigs off the bounce and post up little guys. Has to continue to improve as a shooter. His position right now is a four but he may be able to play some three as he gets quicker. I thought he passed the ball well. I don’t see an all-star, but I see a starter down the road. There’s some worry about him not being an alpha type player.”

Cason Wallace, 6-4 freshman guard, Kentucky. “He’s one of the safest picks in the draft. Nothing sexy about him, but he can play the point, he can shoot, he can score in the midrange, he’s got solid athleticism. Doesn’t really have a burst. He never got rattled when Calipari would yell at him. Needs to develop his point guard skills. Still needs to develop his pick-and-roll game. He’s a high-level defender who can guard ones and twos.”

Jordan Walsh, 6-7 freshman forward, Arkansas. “I don’t understand why this kid stayed in the draft. He can facilitate and pass but he needs to become a much better shooter. Good point of attack defender, but offensively he just can’t score. He’s worth a two-way for sure. He’s a good on-ball defender, but he’s not a lockdown guy yet. He’s just all athlete right now. I don’t think he really knows what he’s doing when he’s on the floor.”

Victor Wembanyama, 7-4 center, Metropolitans 92. “What do you want me to say? He’s a freak. Generational talent. Guys don’t do the things he does at that size. He’s hitting stepback 3s like Steph Curry. I guess the main question is that body. He’s not built the same way Chet Holmgren is, but he’s slender. Porzingis is built the same way, and his body hasn’t held up well. Giannis was thin coming in, too. Victor’s got a body that I think he could put some muscle on. I’m sure he’s going to have some growing pains because he’s thin, and the NBA can be a physical league. Let’s give him a little bit of time, but the sky’s the limit.”

Dariq Whitehead, 6-7 freshman forward, Duke. “He was hurt a lot so he didn’t really show what he can do at Duke. Then he gained some weight which also set him back. He’s got good size, good feel for the game, good passing ability. He has deceptive athleticism. I thought there were times this year when he played like he was worried about his draft stock. He was a much better creator when I saw him in AAU. He’s going to have to buy into being a 3-and-D guy. Having those foot surgeries after the season and not being able to do workouts might have hurt his draft stock a little bit.”

Cam Whitmore, 6-7 freshman forward, Villanova. “He’s another one where the injury threw him off. He never really seemed to get in the flow. That said, he’s a freakish athlete who can really go to the rim and finish strong. I question his feel for the game. He plays with blinders on sometimes. I think the NBA game will be better for him. There are questions with his decision making. Things have to be simple for him, but he’s a forceful dude. The shot is not broken, but he’s not a knockdown shooter right now.”

Jalen Wilson, 6-7 junior forward, Kansas. “I don’t think he’s athletic enough. He plays really hard so the game doesn’t look easy. He didn’t play great in Chicago. He’s a good college player, good system guy, but he doesn’t do anything that stands out. Talent is gonna catch up with him. He was a high-usage guy in college, but I don’t know if his game translates to the NBA. I don’t think he’s a great finisher at the basket. He’s not a dunker. He’s a three/four tweener, because he’s not big enough to play the four full-time.”

Isaiah Wong, 6-4 senior guard, Miami. “He can score in the midrange but needs to improve his ballhandling. If he doesn’t get drafted I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a roster. He’s got a little herky jerky to his game. Defensively I worry about him because of his size, but this guy is shifty, and he can really score. I liked him in person even more than I liked him on film. He’s going to have to develop more of a point guard game. I think he gets a little scoring-focused sometimes. That’s a little harder to do at our level when you’re not the superstar player.”
 

These 2023 NBA draft prospects were unranked high schoolers

How do unranked high school prospects become NBA draft candidates? The numbers are not in their favor, but history has shown it will happen. There are many reasons players hit or miss on the draft board. It is the responsibility of NBA scouts and decision-makers to know why.
When it comes to unranked high school prospects, it's imperative to track and monitor their improvement and impact in college. There is plenty to evaluate: skill level (shooting in particular), physical growth and athleticism, as well as leadership qualities and maturity.
In the past two drafts based on the ESPN 100 rankings, there have been 13 lottery picks, 32 first-round picks and 28 selections taken in the second round, according to ESPN Stats & Information. For unranked players, seven were lottery picks, 14 were first-rounders and 12 were second-rounders. This excludes international and G League selections.

The 2023 draft is littered with former ESPN top 100 talents: 12 of the 14 projected lottery picks were evaluated as five-star prospects in our high school database (international players are not ranked).

The NBA draft is all about acquiring assets. Decision-makers assess physical measurables, athletic ability, game skills, on-court traits and analytics.

This year's draft is loaded with prospects who first made their way onto the national radar as high school All-Americans and were ranked among the ESPN 100's top prospects.

Others whose profile and skills were lesser known will be selected Thursday. Let's take an in-depth look at the development of five such players who were unranked as high school prospects and their path to the next level.

Kris Murray, Iowa
Murray, whose twin brother Keegan was a lottery pick by the Sacramento Kings in last year's NBA draft, kept his name in for the 2023 draft after completing his junior year at Iowa.

The Murray twins were thin 6-foot-4 sophomores but grew to 6-8 as seniors and had outstanding careers at Prairie High School in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Neither brother pursued high-profile AAU basketball and decided to attend DME Academy in Daytona, Florida, for a postgraduate year to work on all facets of their game and body.

Kenyon Murray, the twins' father, was a four-year starter for Iowa from 1992 to 1996 and had an impressive career, scoring 1,230 points with 200 steals for the Hawkeyes. After college, he tried out for the Quad City Thunder of the CBA and the coach at the time was Dan Panaggio, who now is one of the owners of DME Academy.

"Kenyon Murray trusted my uncle Dan and sent the twins here," Matt Panaggio, head coach at DME, said. "Both Keegan and Kris were pros in how they approached everything. They were serious about their weight training and nutrition. ... They each gained 15 pounds of muscle at DME."
Neither player ranked nor graded in the ESPN database (which ranks the top 100 prospects in the country and grades out the top 250 players). Kris was ranked No. 359 by 247 Sports Composite.

Iowa coach Fran McCaffery and staff followed the path and progress of the twins and with Kenyon's connection as a former Hawkeye, the twins were bound for Iowa City.

"When Keegan and Kris stepped on campus, I thought they would be very good four-year players because of their size, length, ball skills and basketball IQ with a chance of being an NBA prospect after their time at Iowa," McCaffrey said.

Kris made huge strides each season under McCaffrey. In his first season, with only 13 games to play because of COVID-19, he played 41 minutes and averaged less than a point per game. He jumped to 9.7 PPG in his sophomore year and last year led Iowa in scoring (20.2 PPG), rebounding (8.0 RPG) and blocks (1.5 per game). He shot 33.5% on 3-pointers in 197 attempts.

"We took advantage of Kris' skill level, which is the ability to drive, pass and shoot with a high basketball IQ," McCaffery said. "The plan was to put Kris in position to be successful. I have the utmost belief in him as a player and a person and he went out and played with supreme confidence. We had the same plan for Keegan, and it worked."

NBA scouts love his scoring versatility, which includes screening and spacing to shoot 3s or a short roll to score or be a playmaker. And McCaffery expressed his love for Kris on a personal level.

"He has no ego or entitlement, but he plays with an ego. He is a better person than he is a player. A worker and a coach's dream." McCaffery said.

Murray is projected to be drafted in the middle of the first round. He will turn 23 before the start of the 2023-24 season. Taking a fifth year of high school, producing at Iowa and being diligent with his work habits have him ready and mature to contribute right away on any team.

Colby Jones, Xavier
Jones played for Bucky McMillian, now the coach at Samford, his junior and senior seasons at Mountain Brook High School. He transferred in averaging 22 points per game as a sophomore, but 13 points per game as a junior playing alongside Trendon Watford. Watford, a five-star recruit who went undrafted, now is with the Portland Trail Blazers. For some, scoring fewer points would not translate to improvement, but Jones was more efficient and effective with his game.

In 2020, he earned the Alabama Class 7A player of the year, averaged 25.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game and led his team to a 32-3 record. His recruiting varied -- from Yale and Harvard to offers from Auburn, Iowa State, Georgia, Stanford, Xavier and Alabama. He eventually picked Xavier.

Jones, who was a four-star prospect, comes from a basketball family. His father Chad played at UAB and his brother C.J. played at Arkansas and Middle Tennessee. A grade of 80 to 84 translates into a prospect with a résumé and potential to significantly contribute or lead a major conference program, or one that is on the cusp over the course of four years.

"He is all about making the right play, being in the right spot and impacting his team in a positive fashion," McMillan said. "His mentality reminds me of Shane Battier. He does not try to be someone he is not. He is the humblest person I have ever met with that type of talent."

Jones had a strong year in the 2019 EYBL but was basically a non-shooter. In the summer leading into his senior year, he was 2-for-16 shooting from beyond the arc over 18 appearances with the Alabama Fusion, according to Synergy Sports. However, at Xavier, his 3-point shooting took incremental steps. Shooting 9-for-27 (33.3%) his freshman year, 21-for-72 (29.1%) as a sophomore and up to 45-for-119 (37.8%) as a junior. He evolved as a shot-creator to complement his defense and versatility.

"People say trust the process. Well, it is a lengthy process," Jones said. "Coach [Sean] Miller really helped me develop a more aggressive mindset, taught me to be a better defender and his terminology developed my IQ for the game."
Georgetown coach Ed Cooley said Jones is a great two-way player.

"He is tough and can guard any position 1 to 4," Cooley said. "He really worked on his shooting and ability to impact the game. ... Most underrated player in draft in my thoughts."

Jones' draft range, according to NBA intel, is toward the end of the first round or early in the second. He knows how to fit on a winning team and into any offense or defense. Off the court, he was an honor roll student at one of the top public schools in Alabama and played saxophone. Jones is wired to be successful.

Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara
Podziemski is one of the biggest transfer portal success stories from last season and should be drafted in the first round.

In high school, he lost the opportunity to play a full summer in the Nike EYBL because of the pandemic. He scored only 1.4 points per game over 16 appearances as a freshman at Illinois.

After being limited to 69 minutes at Illinois, Podziemski transferred to Santa Clara.

"We had high expectations for Brandin based on the film we watched from high school. But for him to be where he is at this point is a surprise," Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek said.

The 20-year-old lefty posted one of the largest scoring increases in NCAA history from one year to the next -- from 1.4 to 19.9. He shot 43.8% on 3-pointers this past season. He did so while creating almost half of his shot attempts out of ball screens, isolation and handoffs, according to Synergy Sports.

"He has two X factors outside of his ability which makes him great: his toughness and basketball IQ," Sendek said. "He is the first player to hit the floor for a loose ball, a committed rebounder who anticipates the miss and is a charge taker. It is hard to believe there is someone tougher in the draft. He is consumed and obsessed in studying the game."

Podziemski played and tested well at the NBA combine in Chicago. His standing vertical jump was nearly 40 inches, and he almost had a triple-double in one game with 10 points, eight assists and seven rebounds. His game and mindset scream versatility and focus.

He's an efficient scorer even though defense was the focal point of his scouting report. He made a huge leap showing pro-caliber shot-making prowess as a sophomore after struggling to carve out a role as a freshman. Pulling down 8.8 rebounds per game with a wingspan close to 7 feet, the 6-foot-5 Podziemski ranks among the better guards in the country on the boards as he seized on a big opportunity at the mid-major level.

Podziemski is a prime example where the right fit and a better opportunity is greater than level of a conference to develop your game if all else is equal. Last year, Santa Clara's Jalen Williams was drafted No. 12 by the Oklahoma City Thunder.

If Podziemski lands in the first round, which many believe he will, it will be back-to-back first round NBA draft picks for Sendek and the Broncos.

Seth Lundy, Penn State
Lundy played at Roman Catholic High School, a storied program from the Philadelphia Catholic League with a tradition of winning. He graded as a four-star prospect who could overpower his peers in high school but also had the ability as a spot-up shooter.

He was a four-year player at Penn State who started 96 games and scored more than 1,200 points. He played for multiple coaches in State College and could have transferred, but stayed and put it all together as a senior under former Penn State coach Micah Shrewsbury (now at Notre Dame).

Lundy averaged 5.3 points as a freshman but had some big shooting games. In a win against Purdue that year, he played 34 minutes and went 6-for-9 from 3-point range.

Shrewsbury saw Lundy's potential up close when Penn State went into Mackey Arena at Purdue and came out with a win. He was an assistant for the Boilermakers at the time.

"I thought that he could be an NBA player when he was a freshman at Penn State," Shrewsbury said. "You could see his ability back then."

As a senior, Lundy's shooting numbers jumped from 34.8% to 40% behind the 3-point arc. Beyond the numbers, he displayed the ability to impact every game playing off Jalen Pickett in one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball.

He possesses an elevation to rise and shoot over defenders before a rotation closeout arrives. As a spot-up shooter, he has demonstrated the all-important shot fake and sidestep against a charging defender, which is another layer of being a great shot-maker. He can make shots coming off screens and is an active cutter.

"He is one of the hardest workers that we had at Penn State, constantly trying to improve, and is a big-time competitor." Shrewsbury said.

Lundy will not create space or scoring opportunities off the dribble or be a high-level finisher. Many will overthink what he cannot do. One thing is for sure -- Lundy is a sure shooter with range and accuracy.

"He is an attractive draft pick to the NBA because of his senior year shooting at 40% from 3 on six-plus 3-point attempts per game," Shrewsbury said.

"His shot is real. It's what he does and it is what we look for," an NBA scout said.

Lundy might not pass the test in terms of speed and quickness, but he stands 6-foot-6 with a wingspan of 6-10 and weighs 220 pounds.

The steady climb and solid progress each season combined with his shooting prowess of 36.8% career 3-point shooting and 81% from the free throw line has opened eyes among scouts.

He clearly helped himself at the combine in front of decision-makers. Surrounding him with talent and having him as a trusted role player who can make an open shot is essential in today's game. He can deliver as good as most in this class from deep.

Ben Sheppard, Belmont
Sheppard has been below the radar. Coming out of high school, his recruiting was between Lipscomb and Belmont. Sheppard committed to Belmont. Casey Alexander, Lipscomb's coach, found himself at Belmont a year later, coaching Sheppard.

His growth in high school and at Belmont had been incremental until his junior year, when his scoring rose from 10.5 points to 16.2 points per game for the Bruins. He averaged 18.8 points last season, when Belmont joined the Missouri Valley Conference.

Belmont returned 97% of its roster in 2021-2022, Sheppard's junior year, which included fifth-year seniors and 1,000-point scorers.

"Ben emerged as a leader, scorer and defender with that group," Alexander said. "He competes with confidence because of his preparation. He is well-prepared in the fundamentals. He has great habits. Everything he does has a purpose, and it transfers."
Sheppard is durable -- he did not miss a game or a practice at Belmont except during COVID-19 isolation or quarantine.

The Belmont star possesses the tools suited for the pro game because he is a well-rounded movement shot-maker. Almost half (47%) of his shots at Belmont were from behind the arc, and he made 41.5% of those 3-point attempts. His ability to make deep shots in transition for baskets before a defense can get set is attractive to scouts. In the half court, Sheppard is comfortable and dangerous shooting from dribble handoffs, spot-up movement and reading screens. For those who point out his below average free throw shooting at 68%, he did shoot 82% in the last 14 games of the season.

Sheppard's quick decisions with the ball, constant movement, shooting accuracy and defensive mindset shined at the combine in Chicago. He also scored high in the shuttle run and possibly solidified and elevated him into a first-round selection, according to many scouts.

NBA scouts who went to see Ja Morant (Murray State) and Dylan Windler (Belmont) in the Ohio Valley Conference have watched Sheppard. They certainty knew of him before the season. But he was just a name in a database of thousands.

"He was not a first-round pick on my board before the season. A potential second-rounder," an NBA scout said. "That was based on his body of work and who else is in the draft. It is fluid. We track performances and our analytics department keeps us updated then we prioritize who to see."

Sheppard plays unafraid and understands how to play off the talent around him. Both are vital when transitioning from a centerpiece of a college program to a player of an NBA roster.
 
Okay after getting in enough tape if there’s 1 player I’d like these Knicks to sneak into the draft to get it’s gotta be that Keyontae Johnson dude outta K State.

I need Thibs to get his hands on that boy 🐾
 
ballinsam23 said:
Got a great support group behind him, killing the interviews and the workouts.

The choice should be easy for Charlotte.

Click to expand...


If Charlotte is really sold on Miller (and would be happy with either prospects) then they should milk the Blazers and Pelicans situation and trade #2 for #3 and #23 so the Blazers can guarantee Scoot to the highest bidder.
 

2023 NBA mock draft: Projecting all 58 picks based on latest intel and scouting

It's officially 2023 NBA draft week and one of the big storylines continues to be what happens with the No. 2 pick. With the 19-year-old French phenom Victor Wembanyama all but headed to the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC and ESPN App), extra attention has been on the Charlotte Hornets as they decide between Alabama forward Brandon Miller and G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson.

ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski and Jonathan Givony reported Sunday that the Hornets were going to bring Miller and Henderson back for a second round of workouts and interviews in front of outgoing majority owner Michael Jordan. What the Hornets decide to do with the pick along with a possible active trade market could impact how the rest of the draft plays out.

ESPN will be tracking every twist and turn until Wembanyama's name is announced first at the Barclays Center podium Thursday, with this version of the mock draft undergoing any and all necessary alterations up until draft time, based on our latest intel and any first- or second-round moves up until that hour:

FIRST ROUND

1. San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama
Metropolitans 92
PF/C
Age: 19.4
Wembanyama wrapped up his season with France's Metropolitans 92 with a 3-0 sweep at the hands of EuroLeague title contenders Monaco, arriving in New York on Monday to assuredly assume his mantle as the No. 1 pick Thursday. He ended up playing 62 games across all competitions without missing a contest, a testament to the work he and his team put into maintaining his health. Wembanyama led the French league in points, rebounds and blocks while showing his productivity impacts winning at the highest level against all the best teams he faced this season, making an easy case for being the No. 1 pick thanks to his unprecedented combination of size, length, skill, feel for the game and instincts on both ends of the floor. -- Jonathan Givony

2. Charlotte Hornets
Brandon Miller
Alabama
SF
Age: 20.5

Miller and Scoot Henderson will return to Charlotte for second visits as the Hornets finalize their plans at No. 2. With the draft just days away, the prevailing thought amongst teams we've spoken with remains that the Hornets will wind up going with Miller. That said, the news that Henderson put in an excellent first workout in Charlotte has led some around the league to, at the very least, poke holes in that assumption. Henderson has made a strong case for himself and the deal is not done here, particularly considering the team's need for a second look at both players. But it's fair to say that Miller looks like the easier fit, able to slot in easily as a tall wing scorer alongside guard LaMelo Ball as the Hornets push toward competitiveness. Rival teams have called both the Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers making overtures to trade into the top three, but the belief is that it would take a significant offer involving a star-level player to tempt Charlotte into moving. -- Jeremy Woo

3. Portland Trail Blazers
Scoot Henderson
G League Ignite
PG
Age: 19.3
Portland seems content to select Miller or Henderson. Barring a team unexpectedly emerging on draft night with an offer they simply can't refuse, sources told ESPN the Trail Blazers are planning on keeping the pick and adding the type of talent to the roster they would be hard pressed to bring to Portland if not through the draft. The team will attempt to thread the needle between being competitive with Damian Lillard at the helm and continuing to build for the future with Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons and this draft pick, giving them a strong nucleus to look forward to even after the Lillard era ends. -- Givony

4. Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson
Overtime Elite
PG/SG
Age: 20.3
Thompson looks increasingly like the frontrunner at this spot, with the Rockets weighing a big upside swing on the hope that he can become the type of connective guard their roster needs. Cam Whitmore worked out for Houston this past weekend and has come up as a potential option. But its roster is replete with scorers, and Thompson's potential to become both a lead playmaker and a perimeter stopper could round out this team quite nicely. His upside seems to far outweigh the concerns around his jumper based on how teams are treating him in this process, but should Houston opt for Whitmore here, Thompson won't fall far -- the Magic at No. 6 would seem to be his floor. His long-term ceiling is significant and makes him maybe the most tantalizing risk-reward pick in the class. -- Woo

5. Detroit Pistons
Jarace Walker
Houston
PF
Age: 19.7
The intel shifted in recent days following Whitmore's workout in Detroit, indicating that the Pistons may look in a different direction, be it trading down or selecting another player such as Walker. Making Monty Williams the highest paid coach in the NBA unquestionably gives him input on how the roster is built, and the expectation around the league is the Pistons will want to pivot to respectability as quickly as possible. Should Detroit trade down, Jalen Hood-Schifino has come up as a prospect the front office is high on, as well as Gradey ****, Taylor Hendricks and Cason Wallace. Pistons general manager Troy Weaver showed deft ability maneuvering around the lottery last year to position himself to land two elite prospects in Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, and it's possible he looks to do the same again, possibly with a team like Utah (who holds the No. 9 and 16 picks). -- Givony

6. Orlando Magic
Ausar Thompson
Overtime Elite
PG/SG
Age: 20.3
Thompson's range appears a tad wider than that of his twin brother, beginning here and likely ending with the Magic's pick at No. 11, with Orlando, Washington and Utah viewed by rival teams as the most probable landing spots. The Magic have explored moving around in the draft, but will have a difficult choice to make if they stay put, particularly if the Rockets and Pistons opt to pass on Whitmore and send him down into the next part of the lottery. Thompson's perimeter defense, passing ability and potential for on-ball creation make him a cleaner fit on paper than Whitmore, with a more viable pathway to develop into the type of big, two-way guard Orlando's roster needs. Anthony Black, who brings a similar but more pass-first skillset, is also in the mix here. -- Woo

7. Indiana Pacers
Taylor Hendricks
UCF
PF
Age: 19.5
The Pacers might be disappointed to see Walker selected two picks earlier, which could potentially prompt a trade-down for additional assets. Analytics models suggest Hendricks is the superior power forward prospect of the two, and his combination of perimeter shooting and defensive intensity could still make him an attractive option on draft night. He's cast a wide net, working out for everyone from Detroit at No. 5 to Oklahoma City at No. 12. The Pacers trading for a veteran such as Tobias Harris, De'Andre Hunter or Dorian Finney-Smith is an option that could be explored as well. -- Givony

8. Washington Wizards
Anthony Black
Arkansas
PG/SG
Age: 19.4
The Wizards agreed to deal franchise cornerstone Bradley Beal to Phoenix on Sunday, an essential first step in the process as they transition into teardown mode with a new front office in place. Washington brass has kept its draft plans close to the vest over the past few weeks, but sources told ESPN Black traveled back to D.C. for a second workout over the weekend, and is strongly in the mix as they eye long-term backcourt options to build around. This pick is viewed as a potential landing spot for Ausar Thompson, as well as Kobe Bufkin, who has become a bit of a dark horse for this pick. Black's positional size, unselfish mindset and ability to contribute as a playmaker and defender gives him good upside if his individual offense continues to progress. -- Woo

9. Utah Jazz
Cam Whitmore
Villanova
SF
Age: 18.9
Where Whitmore is picked on draft night will have a major influence on how the rest of the lottery plays out. He finished his last workout with the Rockets (No. 4) on Saturday, and has conducted individual workouts with the likes of Portland, Detroit, Orlando, Indiana and Utah as well, receiving positive feedback in some places, and struggling at times with his shooting and intensity in others. Having picks Nos. 9, 16 and 28, it seems no one has gotten eyes on more players over the pre-draft process than Utah. Sources told ESPN the Jazz are exploring many different options on draft night, including packaging their first two picks to move up into the lottery (possibly to Nos. 5, 6 or. 7), or using their two latter first-rounders and taking on a contract from a team such as Dallas for Davis Bertans, for example, a move that could only be consummated July 1. Utah has been linked to Walker for much of the pre-draft process, potentially giving them a defensively versatile forward who can pair with Lauri Markkanen, but they would likely have to move up past Indiana to get him. -- Givony

10. Dallas Mavericks
Dereck Lively II
Duke
C
Age: 19.3
With draft night approaching, a large swath of the league has called the Mavericks about this pick, which is widely known to be available. Dallas continues to weigh its options in trading back, looking for the right opportunity to upgrade the roster while also preferring to stay in the draft and select a player they like later on. Lively is among the players in the mix if they keep it, along with Gradey ****, and potentially Hendricks should he fall here. Lively has potential suitors right after this pick in Orlando and Oklahoma City, making him a trade target for other teams at this spot -- most notably Atlanta, which could aim to package the No. 15 pick with Clint Capela to move up and draft him. -- Woo

11. Orlando Magic (via Chicago)
Gradey ****
Kansas
SG/SF
Age: 19.5
Drafting at No. 6 and No. 11 has given the Magic a chance to look at virtually every lottery prospect outside of the top three, with the exception of Bufkin. This is assumed to be the floor for Black, who is believed to be in consideration for the Magic's No. 6 pick. Provided the Magic don't select Whitmore at No. 6 (a possibility), picking **** at No. 11 is a move that many rival teams anticipate due to the floor spacing he could provide as arguably the best shooter in the draft. Lively is said to be another option here after a strong workout in Orlando. Another likely candidate is Bilal Coulibaly, who's been one of the hottest names going into this week. -- Givony

12. Oklahoma City Thunder
Kobe Bufkin
Michigan
PG/SG
Age: 19.7

Bufkin has become one of the trendier names circulating in the past week, initially rumored to have a promise in the teens and now looking like a strong bet to land in the lottery, with a chance to potentially sneak into the top 10. His youth, versatility, high-energy style and late-blooming trajectory have endeared him to teams, and after a quiet, strategic pre-draft process, Washington, Utah, Oklahoma City and Toronto look like his potential landing spots. In this scenario, it's OKC who could invest in him as an upside pick despite the fact its talented young backcourt is crowded. Coulibaly and Lively are other names in the mix here for the Thunder, who have also explored trade opportunities involving this pick. -- Woo

13. Toronto Raptors
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Indiana
PG.SG
Age: 20.0
The Raptors have a plethora of options at their disposal that could see them end up anywhere on draft night -- higher up in the lottery, with another pick in the mid to late first round -- or possibly out altogether. Picking a shooter such as **** or Jordan Hawkins, or pairing franchise stalwart Scottie Barnes with a versatile combo guard such as Bufkin, Nick Smith Jr. or Hood-Schifino is believed to be some of their most likely options according to rival teams. However, the amount of activity coming out of the Toronto front office makes it difficult to project what they will do. It's also not clear whether they will be able to meet the financial demands of center Jakob Poeltl in free agency, who prefers not to be in a rebuilding situation next season, sources told ESPN. Bufkin's fit with Barnes due to his experience playing off the ball, defensive tenacity and much-improved shooting has caused many to speculate that the Raptors are the ones who promised Bufkin this pick. -- Givony

14. New Orleans Pelicans
Jordan Hawkins
UConn
SG
Age: 21.1
Chatter surrounding the Pelicans' potential move toward the top of the draft for Henderson has died down in recent days, with the Hornets appearing unlikely to deal the No. 2 pick, the Blazers listening to a range of callers for No. 3 and New Orleans seemingly uninterested in dealing Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram -- the type of return moving up that high in this draft would likely require. The Pelicans could still look to move around in the draft on a smaller scale, but if they stay at No. 14, Hawkins' deadeye movement shooting would immediately add a different dimension to their personnel on a roster already full of ball handlers. His experience level and valuable role might make him more appealing here than trying to develop a younger guard on a longer timeline. Hawkins could be off the board already, with Orlando and Toronto looking at him as an option, and if New Orleans were to pass, he likely won't fall too far into the teens. -- Woo

15. Atlanta Hawks
Cason Wallace
Kentucky
PG/SG
Age: 19.6
For the Hawks, draft night might represent as much of an opportunity to clean up their salary sheet as add talent, with the likes of De'Andre Hunter, Clint Capela and John Collins all said to be potential options for shaving money as the second apron approaches and looming extensions for Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey and Onyeka Okongwu appear daunting. The Mavericks are said to be one potential trade partner, but the Hawks may balk at using the No. 15 pick in a deal for Capela, who still has positive trade value. Lively is said to be viewed as a potential successor for Capela should the draftee fall this far, but if he doesn't, the glut of guards in this range -- many of whom avoided working out for the Rockets due to their crowded backcourt situation -- could be attractive in adding depth to the roster. -- Givony

16. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota)
Bilal Coulibally
Metropolitans 92
SG/SF
Age: 18.8
The Jazz are among the strongest suitors for Coulibaly, who helped himself with strong play down the stretch in France, and he's thought to be a real candidate for their pick at No. 9 -- something that may ultimately hinge on how the board falls ahead of them. Sources told ESPN Coulibaly flew to New York City on Monday and will not end up conducting any team workouts due to travel constraints. Where Coulibaly gets picked will also play a major role in how the lottery evolves, and there's a real chance he goes much higher than this, as he's said to have real fans in Washington (No. 8), Utah (Nos. 9 and 16), Orlando (Nos. 6 and 11) and Oklahoma City (No. 12). His inability to conduct visits gives him a fairly wide range on draft night. -- Woo

17. Los Angeles Lakers
Jett Howard
Michigan
SG/SF
Age: 19.7
Howard is said to be part of a group of options that include Lively, Smith and Noah Clowney, only two of whom are available in this scenario. Coming off a run to the Western Conference finals, the Lakers can be opportunistic about where they are positioned on draft night. Several high-level prospects are likely to be available here, allowing them to either add a talented young player to their core, or make an impactful trade that allows them to remain competitive heading into next season. Should they stand pat, adding a shooter with size, feel and pedigree such as Howard makes a lot of sense with their current roster configuration. -- Givony

18. Miami Heat
Nick Smith Jr.
Arkansas
PG/SG
Age: 19.1
This is a bit of a fall for Smith, who has drawn looks from teams in the late lottery, but may wind up slipping into the next part of the draft due in part to the large glut of guards in the mix for teams in the No. 10-20 range. His creative on-ball chops and strong reputation coming out of high school has kept his name in all these conversations, but a difficult, injury-plagued freshman season at Arkansas ultimately made it difficult for him to build a ton of momentum. The Lakers are known to be a suitor for him at No. 17, but if he gets past L.A., there's a chance he might tumble a bit further, with several teams in the 18-25 range thought to be seeking experienced college talent. Miami also has a need for a bigger, defensive-minded wing, and this spot is viewed as the high end for a player in that mold such as Olivier-Maxence Prosper. -- Woo

19. Golden State Warriors
Brandin Podziemski
Santa Clara
SG
Age: 20.3
The Warriors are said to be looking at a different strategy on draft night this year, after previously picking young, developmental-type prospects which have been difficult to fully integrate into their style of play. Rival teams have pointed to the likes of Podziemski, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kris Murray -- who bring varying degrees of skill, feel, shooting and two-way versatility, as the type of players the Warriors could target instead. Podziemski, an analytics model favorite, has helped himself in the pre-draft process with the intriguing combination of toughness, shooting and passing ability he's demonstrated in workouts, helping him climb solidly into the first round. -- Givony

20. Houston Rockets (via LA Clippers)
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Marquette
PF
Age: 20.9
Houston is thought to be shopping this pick, with plenty of young players already on the roster and little need for additional rookies. The Rockets could be willing to move out in exchange for a future first-rounder and kick this selection down the road. Prosper has been mentioned by teams as a serious candidate to go earlier than this, with his range starting around No. 18 with Miami and ending in the 20s. He appears to have helped himself quite a bit in the pre-draft process, including a strong combine showing, and offers promising physical tools that few wings in this draft class can match. His motor and frame portend developmental upside, even if his floor game remains a bit of a work in progress. -- Woo

21. Brooklyn Nets (via Phoenix)
Noah Clowney
Alabama
PF
Age: 18.9
Clowney was the 21st player to receive an invite to the NBA draft's green room, a positive sign for his standing Thursday. The Nets are said to be extremely active in trade conversations, having the option of using one or both of their first-round picks (Nos. 21 and 22) with players such as Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neale to get to different spots in the draft if they desire. -- Givony

22. Brooklyn Nets
Keyonte George
Baylor
SG
Age: 19.6
George has been earmarked by teams as a candidate to fall in the draft a little bit, with potential landing spots in Toronto (No. 13) and Utah (No. 16), two places that have been difficult for rival teams to read. It's hard to see him going into full free-fall, but the further he gets in the draft, the more appealing he should become, where his talent as a creative scorer outweighs his deficiencies in other areas. It's unclear exactly what Brooklyn will do with these two picks (Nos. 21 and 22), but if they stand pat with one or both, George looks like a nice value play this far down in the draft. -- Woo

23. Portland Trail Blazers (via New York)
Rayan Rupert
NZ Breakers
SG/SF
Age: 19.0
The Trail Blazers could be in the market for a long-armed wing with the versatility to defend point guards, which would help with their undersized backcourt. Rupert's ability to wreak havoc all over the floor with his 7-foot-2 wingspan and high-intensity level could be interesting at this stage of the draft. -- Givony

24. Sacramento Kings
Kris Murray
Iowa
PF
Age: 22.7
Murray could certainly come off the board earlier than this, with the Warriors looking like a potential landing spot and his skillset easy to plug and play on most rosters. The Kings, who struck gold drafting his twin brother Keegan Murray last year, will likely think long and hard about reuniting the Murrays should Kris fall all the way to their spot here. Kris isn't a flashy player by any means, but he has the type of "3-and-D" framework that should age well and give him a pathway to a long NBA career. -- Woo

25. Memphis Grizzlies
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
UCLA
SF
Age: 22.3
Ja Morant's 25-game suspension shouldn't affect the Grizzlies' plan on draft night, as they have a plug-and-play replacement already in Tyus Jones and it's unlikely a rookie will be ready to make meaningful contributions the first two months of the season. Jaquez has helped himself in the pre-draft process, showing teams he's ready to contribute sooner rather than later thanks to his experience, physicality and feel for the game, allowing him to play a variety of positions and roles for the team that picks him. -- Givony

26. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland)
James Nnaji
Barcelona
C
Age: 18.8
The Pacers continue to explore a wide variety of trade options involving all of their draft picks, including No. 7, so it's quite possible a different team ends up selecting here as the Pacers don't really need a center. Nnaji hasn't been able to make his way to the United States for workouts as his team, Barcelona, is currently playing in the ACB Finals. That's forced his camp to get creative, sending a pro-day-style video to teams in addition to an NBA-supervised combine which revealed exceptional measurements -- standing 7-foot in shoes, 251 pounds with a 7-7 wingspan and 9-4 standing reach. A team lacking in rim protection on their roster could prioritize Nnaji with his exceptional length and quickness getting off his feet. -- Givony

27. Charlotte Hornets (via Denver)
Leonard Miller
G League Ignite
SF/PF
Age: 19.5
The Hornets have made overtures to several wing prospects projected to be selected ahead of this slot on draft night, indicating they may be exploring packaging some picks (Nos. 27, 34, 39, 41) to potentially move up. While new ownership isn't expected to play much of a role in who the front office selects at No. 2, it's possible they may ask to revisit plans for re-signing Miles Bridges to ensure the franchise is making the right decision from a public relations standpoint following his 30-game suspension for his role in a 2022 felony domestic violence incident against the mother of his two children. Miller has a fairly wide range on draft night, but his positional versatility, G League productivity and upside could be attractive at this slot. -- Givony

28. Utah Jazz (via Philadelphia)
Maxwell Lewis
Pepperdine
SF
Age: 20.8
Considering the Jazz are among the teams holding multiple picks and expected to be active, it's unclear whether they'll actually select for themselves here. Lewis is one of the draft's more intriguing upside picks that can actually be had in a range of the draft where some of the risk is mitigated. He has plenty of tools to develop on the wing, with both a knack for scoring and physical talent, but will need to land somewhere that can give him a proper runway to develop and gain experience. His range runs from the 20s into the early second round. -- Woo

29. Indiana Pacers (via Boston)
Ben Sheppard
Belmont
SF
Age: 21.9
Every NBA team is looking for plus-sized wings such as Sheppard who can do a little more than just shoot. Sheppard appears to have helped himself in the pre-draft process, starting at the NBA combine where he showed his gaudy production in the Missouri Valley translated against better competition, and then continuing in private workouts, where he shot the ball extremely well after making 41% of his 3-pointers this past season. It's widely assumed that Indiana will either package its three picks in this range (Nos. 26, 29, 32) to move up in the draft, or look to kick the can down the road by trading them for future assets, so it's likely this pick ends up in a different team's hands on draft night. -- Givony

30. LA Clippers (via Milwaukee)
Dariq Whitehead
Duke
SG/SF
Age: 18.8
Whitehead is among the players who could be available to the Clippers, with LA looking at a range of wings and seemingly content to wait and grab whichever one falls to the back of the first round. After recently having another foot surgery, Whitehead is expected to make a full recovery going into the season, but has seen his stock slip as a once-projected lottery pick with teams struggling to gain a feel for his true talent level despite his lofty high school reputation. If he makes it out of the first round, he shouldn't fall too far, but that scenario is in play. -- Woo

SECOND ROUND

31. Detroit Pistons
Brice Sensabaugh | Ohio St. | SF/PF | Age: 19.6
32. Indiana Pacers (via Houston)
Marcus Sasser | Houston | PG/SG | Age: 22.7
33. San Antonio Spurs
Andre Jackson Jr. | UConn | SG/SF | Age: 21.5
34. Charlotte Hornets
Trayce Jackson-Davis | Indiana | PF/C | Age: 23.2
35. Boston Celtics (via Portland)
Julian Phillips | Tennessee | SF | Age: 19.5
36. Orlando Magic
Colby Jones | Xavier | SF | Age: 21.0
37. Denver Nuggets (via Oklahoma City)
Gregory Jackson II | South Carolina | PF | Age: 18.4
38. Sacramento Kings (via Indiana)
Kobe Brown | Missouri | PF/C | Age: 23.4
39. Charlotte Hornets (via Utah)
Jalen Wilson | Kansas | SF/PF | Age: 22.5
40. Denver Nuggets (via Dallas)
Jordan Walsh | Arkansas | SF/PF | Age: 19.2
41. Charlotte Hornets (via Oklahoma City)
Sidy Cissoko | G League Ignite | SG/SF | Age: 19.1
42. Washington Wizards (via Chicago)
Jalen Pickett | Penn St. | SG | Age: 23.6
43. Portland Trail Blazers (via Atlanta)
Seth Lundy | Penn State | SG/SF | Age: 23.1
44. San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto)
Terquavion Smith | NC State | SG | Age: 20.4
45. Memphis Grizzlies (via Minnesota)
Tristan Vukcevic | Partizan | PF/C | Age: 20.2
46. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans)
Amari Bailey | UCLA | PG | Age: 19.2
47. Los Angeles Lakers
Julian Strawther | Gonzaga | SF | Age: 21.1
48. LA Clippers
Keyontae Johnson | Kansas St. | SF | Age: 23.0
49. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Golden State)
Mouhamed Gueye | Washington St. | PF/C | Age: 20.5
50. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Miami)
Hunter Tyson | Clemson | SF/PF | Age: 22.9
51. Brooklyn Nets
Colin Castleton | Florida | C | Age: 23.0
52. Phoenix Suns
Emoni Bates | Eastern Michigan | SG/SF | Age: 19.3
53. Minnesota Timberwolves (via New York)
Chris Livingston | Kentucky | SF/PF | Age: 19.6
54. Sacramento Kings
Ricky Council IV | Arkansas | SG/SF | Age: 21.8
55. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland)
Toumani Camara | Dayton | PF | Age: 20.2
56. Memphis Grizzlies
Jordan Miller | Miami | SF/PF | Age: 23.4
57. Washington Wizards (via Boston)
Adama Sanogo | UConn | C | Age: 21.3
58. Milwaukee Bucks
Adam Flagler | Baylor | PG/SG | Age: 23.5
Note: The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers each forfeited a 2023 second-round draft pick.
 
The rest of Hollinger's top 75 draft prospects. Link to the top 23 here.

2023 NBA Draft’s Top 75 players: Not-quite-sleepers, favorite deep cuts, more

About a month ago, I released my initial list of top 20 prospects (plus two sleepers) for this week’s draft. If you missed it, you can find that analysis and insight here (and, surprise, Victor Wembanyama is No. 1).

Today, I dive deep on players No. 22 to No. 75. (Heights listed as without shoes; ages listed are as of draft day.)

TIER VII: The Not-Quite-Sleepers
22. Brice Sensabaugh, 19, 6-6 freshman SF, Ohio State
With Creighton’s Trey Alexander, my No. 21 player in the original top 22, returning to school, Sensabaugh moves up.

At this point of the draft board, we move into a different realm, because we shift from players who are somewhat likely to very likely to make it as at least a rotation player to the players who are varying degrees of unlikely. Bet “no” on any of these guys and you’ll usually win, but history tells us at least a few of them beat the odds. Once in a great while, they even lead their team to the championship.

The top tier of this group represents two different poles of the risk paradigm: safe upperclassmen who are more likely to crack a rotation but unlikely to be anything beyond, and high-variance one-and-dones with greater fail probabilities but a more alluring right tail of upside.

Of the remaining players, Sensabaugh probably has the best mix of rotation viability and upside. He’s young and was a productive college player and does two things — shooting and rebounding — at a very high level.

Sensabaugh shot 40.5 percent from 3 on high volume and supported that with 83.0 percent shooting from the line. He’s a very good midrange operator too. I have little doubt he’ll at least be an effective floor spacer. Oddly for a knockdown shooter, his other strength is rebounding; with a powerful build, he yanked down 14.2 percent of missed shots in Big Ten games, and that was a big, physical league this past season.

Now, for the bad news. Sensabaugh is a poor defender — his one-on-one tape wasn’t awful, as he’ll put some heat on the ball, but he’s really an undersized four at this point, and his work as a team defender was brutal at times. He had a high foul rate on top of it (6.7 per 100 possessions in Big Ten games).

Sensabaugh also is a me-first scorer who needs to read the game better, especially since he’s a below-average finisher around the cup. He can bully-ball a switch into a turnaround jumper, but he doesn’t elevate well at the rim and doesn’t look for the pass until it’s too late.

As a one-and-done who displayed at least one surefire NBA skill, it’s probably worth gambling at this point that he’ll figure out the rest well enough to get on the floor.

23. Colby Jones, 21, 6-5 junior SG, Xavier
Jones is going to impress certain types of teams between his strong analytics and the reports on his character. He’ll be able to hold his own on defense, with a solid frame and athleticism, although when I went back through the tape, his feet weren’t quite as quick as I originally felt. He also can be left “out of the picture,” so to speak, on shot challenges because he has short arms and fails to explode up with the shooter.

Nonetheless, these are minor quibbles. He’s going to be a plus defender on the wing because he reads the game well, anticipates and has good overall physical tools. Jones is also an outstanding rebounder for his size and one of the best passers in the draft, traits that should carry over.

The question is, what he can do offensively? Jones is a solid shooter off the catch and, watching him in person during Xavier warm-ups, his mechanics hold up well as long as he’s taking open catch-and-shoots. He made 37.8 percent from 3 this past season, although his career 67.9 percent mark from the line is a bit off-putting.

Off the move? Forget it. Jones, for whatever reason, just cannot get into a pull-up jumper. Lining up the dribbles and steps to power up is like solving a Rubik’s Cube for him. Once he puts the ball on the floor, he has to get close enough to shoot a floater; the good news is he has a top-notch floater game with his right hand. He’s also very right-handed as a dribbler and struggles to get separation one-on-one, which could limit his utility as a second-side creator.

Overall, this feels like the right spot for him. If everything goes right, he’s a high-character 3-and-D role player who impacts winning in a Christian Braun-ish type way. There are just too many offensive questions to feel assured about that outcome.

24. Keyonte George, 19, 6-4 freshman SG, Baylor
As I wrote about back in November, George is 6-foot-4, not a freak athlete and not a point guard, which is a tough needle to thread.

He didn’t quite make his case strongly enough to crack my top 20, but there is some hope. George only shot 33.8 percent from 3 and took some questionable pull-ups, but the shooting form seems believable. The more troubling part is what happens inside the arc. George only shot 42.4 percent on 2s; while he drew fouls at a high rage, that 2-point percentage is a poor indicator going forward. Similarly, while he occasionally showed off some good feel as a passer, his turnover rate was far too high — 5.7 per 100 possessions in Big 12 play, against just 4.2 assists.

Defensively, he stacks up fairly well. George is undersized, but he moves his feet and is a pretty good leaper. The concern is how he’ll look on an NBA floor matched up against bigger wings. Overall, I’m slightly skeptical, but he’s only 19 and has time to develop further. He’s a solid risk once you get into the mid-20s.

25. Kris Murray, 22, 6-8 junior SF, Iowa
The twin brother of Sacramento’s Keegan Murray, Kris is ancient for a draft prospect — he’ll be 23 before the season starts. Somehow, he was only a junior. Aside from his AARP status, the other issue with Murray is that he doesn’t have the shooting profile of a real shooter. He shoots a lefty set shot and only made 34.8 percent from 3 and 69.9 percent from the line in his career at Iowa, making him seem much less likely to repeat his brother’s exploits as a pro.

Otherwise, he showcased many of the same traits Keegan did a year earlier. He’s not much of a one-on-one player but has great feel for scoring in the flow of the game and finishing around the basket, leading to a 59.8 percent 2-point percentage in Big Ten games and a positive assist-turnover rate.

Defensively, Murray was solid and projects as a true wing at the NBA level who can defend threes and fours. He got his hands on a lot of balls and was a plus rebounder, he moves well enough laterally and he closes out under control. Some bigger forwards can probably power through him, but he’ll be fine on this end.

Overall, his combination of size, fluidity and feel likely projects as something in the NBA. It’s just hard to get excited about the upside of it at his age, and the shooting looms as a question that can hold him back.

TIER VIII: Wing athletes who might never score a basket
26. Julian Phillips, 19, 6-7 freshman SF, Tennessee
We’re now reaching a stage where we have six very similar players — all athletic wing defenders who may be too tragic on offense to warrant playing time. I’ve ranked them consecutively, as I think the draft hypothesis on each is largely the same: In a league starved for big wings, it’s worth taking the shot on hitting on one in the 25-to-40 range. If he learns how to shoot, you have a $20 million player.

Of the six, I think Phillips is the best athlete and the most likely to be playable on offense in three years.

There are plenty of reasons to not draft Phillips, of course. The most questionable part of the portfolio is the shooting; Phillips made just 11 of his 46 3-point attempts as a freshman. On the other hand, free-throw percentage offers another window into NBA 3-point potential, and Phillips knocked down 82.2 percent from the line on 118 attempts.

On the ball, Phillips is big, has a 7-foot wingspan and can move his feet. He checks that box for sure. For a defensive prospect, you’d like to see a bit more activity from Phillips, who had relatively low rates of steals and blocks for this caliber of player. The tape showed good feet but, as the stats indicated, not as much handsiness or block instincts at the end of the play.

On the other hand, most of the secondary markers look pretty good except for the shooting. He had a positive assist-turnover rate, shot 54.5 percent on 2s in SEC play with a high free-throw rate, kept his own foul rate down and rebounded well. I’m not saying his stat profile jumps off the page, but it hints that he’s something.

Phillips also helped himself at the NBA Draft Combine, uncorking a 36-inch no-step vertical and a mammoth 43-inch max leap. The first number is considered more relevant for basketball purposes, but both were the best marks at the combine. That leaping ability didn’t show up in games as often as you’d like, and he’s going to need to make 3s at some point. At this point, he’s a similar but maybe 1 percent better bet than the next guy on the list.

27. Sidy Cissoko, 19, 6-6, SF, G League Ignite
I was disappointed Cissoko didn’t play at the combine and also disappointed with how a strong, athletic 6-6 guy posted a rebound rate of 5.5 percent in the G League. I’m not sure what’s up with that.

That said, Cissoko is the same age as the one-and-dones and did something in nearly every G League game that made you lift an eyebrow and say, “Oh?” While he came to Ignite somewhat underdeveloped, he’s become a pretty good passer and has a solid handle, certainly the best of any of the candidates in this tier. He has a strong frame and can absorb contact on the way to the rim, shooting 55 percent on 2s in the G League. He projects as a good defender and had relatively high rates of steals and blocks with Ignite, although right now he fouls too much.

The question is, will he shoot? I think I’d take the under on him being a league-average shooter, but the shot isn’t completely broken. He made 31.4 percent with Ignite and 64.3 percent from the line on decent volume; that’s a big improvement on what he did in the Spanish second division a year earlier. Overall, there are some limitations that might put a cap on his upside, but he put up better numbers than Rayan Rupert (below) in a better league and might be flying slightly under the radar.

28. Rayan Rupert, 19, 6-6 SG/SF, New Zealand Breakers
I’m not quite sure how everyone was falling all over themselves over Ousmane Dieng and then a year later are much less enthusiastic about Rupert.

Statistically, they had nearly identical pre-draft seasons for the same team in Australia’s NBL, with Dieng posting a 10.7 PER on 47.9 percent true shooting, and Rupert a 10.0 PER on 48.9 percent true shooting. They were almost exactly the same age too, as they were born 12 months and two weeks apart. (And they were both French prospects on a team in New Zealand.)

Similar to Dieng, Rupert is a bet on an average athlete with elite measurements eventually converting into a basketball player. He has a gigantic 7-2 wingspan and relishes playing defense, and the background reports on him are superb. On the other hand, there’s a real question whether he’ll ever be good enough offensively to warrant regular minutes at the NBA level, especially in a league where non-shooters on the perimeter are increasingly unplayable. His free-throw marks the past two seasons (73.8 percent and 76.0 percent) suggest the shooting situation isn’t irredeemable, but he needs to do better than 31.2 percent from 3; while we’re here, 41.4 percent on 2s in a weak league is nothing to write home about either.

I had Dieng 24th on my board a year ago; he’s four inches taller and has a better handle than Rupert, so his overall case was perhaps slightly stronger. Rupert is in the same class of risk but perhaps with less upside payoff, so he ends up 28th this year.

29. Jordan Walsh, 19, 6-6 freshman SF, Arkansas
Walsh is almost instantly enticing due to his frame and athleticism; he has a massive 7-2 wingspan and a 33-inch no-step vertical. He’s a good lateral mover too, who, if anything, has too much confidence in his defensive ability. He was one of the few players I saw on tape who guarded the ball too closely, constantly picking up cheap fouls while trying to pressure up. He had a high steal rate and a top notch rebound rate for his size (12.6 percent in SEC play). He checks all the energy wing defender boxes, basically.

Will he score? Walsh shot 27.8 percent from 3 on low volume and 71.2 percent from the line. His go-to move right now is trying to back down a guard then pass it out to somebody else; despite his athleticism, he’s not a particularly skilled finisher, and his handle is pretty loose. That said, he was deceptively productive in the two games he played in the combine; his top line stats had him shooting just 4 of 16, but he grabbed 13 rebounds and finished with 10 assists against three turnovers.

In the open spaces of the NBA, I think Walsh’s end-to-end transition game and off-ball cuts might translate to more “garbage man” points than they did in college, and he hopefully can earn minutes from that while the shooting comes around. Between that and the defensive upside, he’s a worthwhile gamble.

30. Olivier-Maxence Prosper, 20, 6-7 junior SF, Marquette
The big winner from the combine, Prosper measures 6-7 in socks with a 7-1 wingspan and uncorked a 35-inch no-step vertical. That alone might get somebody into the first round, but he also scored 21 points in 22 minutes in the one scrimmage he played.

The idea of a big wing defender with some offensive juice in the O.G. Anunoby mold is extremely tempting, and that’s Prosper’s upside story. A non-shooter his first two years at Marquette, he shot a quasi-respectable 33.9 percent on 3s this past season and made 73.5 percent from the line.

More notably, he shot 58.9 percent on 2s in Big East play; with his size and leaping, he can finish around the basket and/or draw fouls. That makes up for his extremely limited feel in other respects, with a meager 1.5 assists per 100 possessions in conference games — of the collegians on my board here, only Seth Lundy was worse, and that includes the centers.

On tape, Prosper is a big defender with good, active feet, and his ability to check smaller players should help keep him on an NBA floor while he works out the offense. I’m not sure I’d call him a lockdown defender, but he’s good. However, his leaping ability is weirdly invisible on that end, with just nine blocked shots in two seasons. The same goes for his rebounding, which is very average for a guy with elite physical tools.

Relative to the players above him in this tier, Prosper is the closest to on-court viability but also the oldest. I like him enough to keep him in the late-first/early-second-round tier; there’s definite 3-and-D upside. I’m also a little worried everyone got too far out over their skis based on one combine game and lost sight of the full body of work.

31. Andre Jackson, 21, 6-6 junior SF, Connecticut
Of all these players, Jackson is the most extreme in almost every category. He’s the oldest, the most allergic to scoring and has the most broken jump shot. But he’s also the one who makes the most impact on winning right now. Few players in college basketball made more sharp passes, hustle rebounds or eye-popping defensive plays. For an off-ball non-scorer to average 9.4 assists per 100 possessions is remarkable and indicative of a very high basketball IQ.

That makes it easier to talk yourself into scenarios where he’s in a Gary Payton II or Brooklyn-era Bruce Brown type role as a small player who is setting screens, short rolling and making plays for others.

However, don’t undersell the fact that, even in that role, it’s nice to score a basket once in a while. Even Payton and Brown were big scorers in college. It’s just extremely rare to find a college upperclassmen who didn’t score and did much of anything as a pro. Jackson averaged just 13.4 points per 100 possessions last season, and even inside the arc, he only shot 48.7 percent in Big East play. He’s not just a bad shooter; he’s not an instinctive scorer around the basket either.

For this ilk of player, his defensive stats didn’t jump off the page either, with good but hardly remarkable steal and block rates and a high foul rate. Matisse Thybulle, he ain’t. Jackson makes up for it with a crazy motor and elite passing skill, but it’s fair to wonder whether his inability to score will end up swallowing his career.

TIER IX: Potential role players
32. Ben Sheppard, 21, 6-5 senior SG, Belmont
Sheppard had decent but not overwhelming stats in a mid-major league but blew up the second day of the combine to rocket up draft boards. A young senior who won’t turn 22 until July, his staple skill is his shooting, but it’s also the easiest one to question going forward. Sheppard shot 41.5 percent from 3 as a senior but is a career 69.6 percent foul shooter as a collegian and had not made more than 37.1 percent from 3 in any of this first three seasons.

If he knocks down shots, the rest of his skill set is almost perfectly tailored to being an NBA role player. He’s not a particular dangerous player off the dribble but is a good passer and can shoot pull-ups. He’s not an elite defender or a freak athlete, but he’s not an obvious liability either. The tape showed him playing up on dribblers — perimeter defenders tell on themselves with how much cushion they give — and closing out hard on shooters, but he needs help closer to the basket because he’s not going to elevate to challenge his man’s shot.

Overall, Sheppard’s case is that he can fill a backup wing spot on a minimum contract by his second season. Is there starter upside? Probably not, but in Round 2, that’s OK.

33. James Nnaji, 18, 6-11, C, Real Madrid
I’m not a big fan of drafting centers, but we’re at a point where taking a swing on Nnaji makes some sense. Any time a player gets regular minutes for one of the elite European teams as a teenager, it catches my eye, so the fact Nnaji is a rotation player for Real Madrid at 18 is certainly notable.

Right now, he is a raw dunker and shot blocker getting by entirely on physical tools. Nnaji has a 6.5 percent block rate, which is notable, and a 50.7 percent free-throw percentage, which is notable for different reasons. He only has 15 assists on the season and commits a foul every seven minutes. So yes, there’s work to do.

The good news is that Nnaji is one of the youngest players in the draft, with an August 2004 birthdate, and his sheer dimensions are insane: He recently measured with a 7-7 wingspan and 9-4 standing reach, and he’s already powerfully built at 251 pounds.

The other benefit of drafting Nnaji is that he won’t cost a roster spot right away. Teams can leave him in Spain to develop for another year or two, and a few teams picking in the 20s and 30s could use that extra wiggle room.

34. Amari Bailey, 19, 6-3 freshman PG, UCLA
Bailey is seen by most as a second-rounder, but I’m a bit surprised he isn’t getting more traction late in the first round after a strong performance at the combine. His season at UCLA also wasn’t as bad as some other one-and-dones, especially considering the athletic pop he showed — notably a 10.6 percent rebound rate in Pac-12 games from a skinny 6-3 guy.

The reason Bailey isn’t ranked higher is because of some yikes level downside in his profile. First of all, the turnovers. Wow: a jaw-dropping 7.5 per 100 possessions from a player who often was in an off-ball role. That’s unacceptable with an umlaut on top. He cleaned a lot of that up in his combine minutes, with 14 assists and five turnovers, but he needs to tighten his handle to play regular minutes on the ball.

The second part is his defense. Bailey had a high rate of steals and can explode into shot contests at the end of the play, but I’m worried about him getting memed to death. UCLA’s scheme and overall soundness helped him, but his one-on-one clips had like four occasions where he almost got faked to the ground, and he gave up straight-line blow-bys on the regular.

Finally, it’s not clear how much we should trust Bailey’s shot. He was a low-volume 3-point shooter as a collegian and has an odd release, although I wouldn’t call it broken, and the ball comes out fine. He’s much more comfortable shooting short and midrange jumpers off pull-ups, and his loosey-goosey quickness off the dribble lets him get into those shots relatively easily.

Overall, offense-oriented combo guards aren’t necessarily a high-value play; the upside on Bailey is that he becomes a full-time point who adds positional size.

35. Trayce Jackson-Davis, 23, 6-8 senior C, Indiana
As I’ve noted, I’m not a big fan of drafting centers. I’m also not a big fan of drafting 6-8 centers who can’t space the floor. Jackson-Davis certainly has a narrow window in which to succeed, and that puts a limit on where a team would reasonably shed a draft pick on him.

On the other hand, it’s relatively likely he can be a pretty good backup on a minimum contract. Jackson-Davis has strong analytics in his favor, as one of the most effective payers in the Big Ten for the last 17 seasons (okay, four; it only felt like 17). He measured short at the combine but has a 33-inch no-step vertical in his favor and great timing for shot blocks. Jackson-Davis swatted 4.6 shots per 100 possessions ins Big Ten games last season. His switchability on the perimeter is more questionable, but he can protect the rim.

Offensively, he’s not going to beast NBA centers on post-ups like he did in college. However, Jackson-Davis is a good passer and has some subtle skills in his favor — great hands, great motor, runs the floor, good rebounder — that could allow him to eat on garbage baskets in the flow of play. You’d wish he was a more explosive lob target; finding a spot for him in half-court offense could be an issue.

36. Kobe Brown, 23, 6-7 senior PF, Missouri
Brown had a breakout senior year for Missouri, keyed by his eruption as a 3-point shooter. That’s the most critical part of the evaluation here; he had never made more than 25 percent from 3 in his previous three seasons but knocked down 45.5 percent of his 112 attempts as a senior. He backed it up with 79.2 percent shooting from the free-throw line. His stroke is believable to a certain extent; his elbow isn’t under him when he shoots, but it’s a repeatable motion and the ball comes out clean.

Brown has to knock this shot down well enough to stretch the floor, and if he does, the rest of his sales pitch become viable. He’s a good ballhandler and distributor for a frontcourt player, with a wide frame that makes receiving at the elbow easy. He’s not an elite athlete and probably needs to drop some weight (he checked in at 252 at the combine) but will surprise you punching home some dunks on the move; a 7-1 wingspan helps.

It’s easy to look at his frame and worry he’ll get cooked on defense, but Brown also has fast hands and reads the game well; his rate of 2.8 steals per 100 possessions is pretty extraordinary for a husky power forward. Because he’s 23 and had an outlier senior year, teams will be looking at Brown with a microscope to make sure it wasn’t a fluke year. But there is at least some history of players like this succeeding as pros, and Brown may end up another example.

37. Julian Strawther, 21, 6-6 junior SF, Gonzaga
The prima facie case for Strawther is that he has small forward size and shot 40.8 percent from 3 last season and 38.4 percent in his three years at Gonzaga. He also had a plus rebound rate and shot 52.6 percent inside the arc, indicating he’s not just purely a stiff hanging out on the perimeter waiting on freebies. While you don’t expect him to be a shot creator in the paint, Strawther does have some finishing skill in traffic, shooting 58.6 percent on 2s for his career.

That said, there are some concerns once you dig deeper. Strawther’s statistical breakdown was that he was awesome against the Pacifics and Portlands of the WCC but struggled a lot more when Gonzaga faced elite competition. True to form, he had 28 and 10 in Gonzaga’s NCAA Tournament opening round laugher over Grand Canyon but shot 12 of 40 in the Zags’ final three tournament games. I probably wouldn’t sweat that too much since the larger arc of his career has some big games against good teams — he had 20 and 10 against Duke in his sophomore year, for instance.

More worrying, perhaps, is that he looks a bit slow laterally on defense. When it comes to the 3-and-D role he’d be expected to play, the D is a tough sell right now. He’s better at contesting the shot, if he’s still in the same zip code as the ballhandler at the end of the play, but this area needs work.

At the end of the day, shooting is the biggest skill requirement for the league, and Strawther has it, plus he does just enough other things as a rebounder and finisher to augment his core skill. That’s why he out-rates some of the other players here, including edging out the next player on this list with a similar profile.

TIER X: I Don’t Get It
38. Jett Howard, 19, 6-7 freshman SF, Michigan
Howard came into the season with lottery hype and had a respectable freshman season in the Big Ten, but his limited athleticism doesn’t bode real well for the next level. Of all the 2003-born players in this draft cycle, Howard has athleticism markers — rebounds, blocks teals, 2-point shooting, foul-drawing — that are easily the worst. His anemic rates in those categories actually are extremely similar to those of another similarly sized Michigan player — Duncan Robinson.

That’s fine … if he turns out to shoot like Duncan Robinson. Anything short of that, and I don’t see Howard’s pathway to NBA success. He has to be a 40 percent 3-point shooter on high volume to stick. He shot 36.8 percent from 3 and 80 percent from the line last season, which is fine but won’t be enough for him at the next level.

Betting on anybody to become Robinson-level good from 3 is something of a longshot, but Howard at least showed some of the tools toward making that a possibility in his freshman year. Banking on him becoming an elite shooter is a leap of faith that is probably a worthwhile crapshoot once we get into the second round, but this isn’t the profile of a first-rounder for me.

39. Nick Smith, 19, 6-4 freshman SG, Arkansas
Analytics-wise, one of the secrets to evaluating players for the draft is to look first at all the non-scoring categories. That’s especially true the further you go down the food chain, as players selected outside the lottery are unlikely to be primary offensive players.

An extremely simple but useful metric, especially for guards and wings, is to just add their assists, rebounds, blocks and steals per 100 possessions. This “ADD” rating usually will come in around 15 for a good prospect, depending on his age, of course. To give you an idea, Anthony Black is at 19.8, Colby Jones is at 18.2, Kobe Bufkin is at 16.2, Gradey **** is at 14.1 and Jordan Hawkins is at 12.6.

Then there’s Smith. He’s the only legit prospect in this draft who didn’t crack double digits, at just 9.5. Beyond the fact that he was an inefficient scorer who shot 39.7 percent on 2s in SEC play, he just made no impact any place else in the box score. Smith showed occasional flashes on defense but was mostly a non-factor at that end as well.

Smith was impacted by injuries this past season, so the question becomes how much that subtracted from his peak performance; his stats on the NIKE EYBL circuit from a year earlier were pretty amazing.

That said, Smith enters the NBA with some obvious deficits: He’s slightly built, he’s maaaaybe 6-4 in socks (Smith did not measure at the combine but did not look 6-5 in shoes when I saw him in person), and he’s not anyone’s idea of a point guard. While he has plus quickness, you wouldn’t call him a freak athlete. He’s at least on the young side for a prospect, not turning 19 until this past April, and he has that high school track record. He’s fine as a dice roll this late but feels like a reach in the first round.

40. Jalen Hood-Schifino, 20, 6-4 freshman PG/SG, Indiana
I’m scratching my head trying to figure out how Hood-Schifino is projected as a late lottery pick. He wasn’t notably good as a nearly 20-year-old freshman — 13.0 PER with 49.2 percent true shooting, although it improved to 14.4 in Big Ten play. He isn’t a great athlete, is a below-average shooter and didn’t have any of the statistical markers that might signify a draft sleeper. Of the 2003-born prospects in my top 70, only Howard (just above) and Hood-Schifino failed to post a PER in conference games above 18.0.

Even Hood-Schifino’s best attribute, making tough pull-ups and floaters, is something of a red flag in disguise: Most pro-caliber players don’t need to rely on these shots because they can get all the way to the rim. College players who rely on tough shot making, from Adam Morrison to Johnny Juzang to Johnny Davis, have found it incredibly tough to eat on those same shots against pros.

Maybe he makes it anyway. He has great size for a guard, he’s a decent passer, if a bit turnover-prone, and he looks like he’ll be able to defend the position. On that end, he was willing to get into the ball and has good size, but there is very little in the way of dynamism — just 1.1 steals and 0.3 blocks per 100 possessions. He’s fine at this point in the draft, but the lottery hype blows my mind.

41. Gregory “G.G.” Jackson, 18, 6-8 freshman PF, South Carolina
Jackson is the youngest player in the draft, not turning 19 until mid-December. He’s also probably the last ready to help an NBA basketball team and will need a lot of development work. Jackson spent his year on a bad South Carolina team just kind of doing whatever; worryingly, his rates of steals, blocks and rebounds were really low for somebody you’re projecting as a developmental athlete.

Jackson had waaaaay too much offensive responsibility for his skill level but also had a lot of trouble reading the game. His rate of 1.6 assists to 5.2 turnovers per 100 possessions screams that from the hilltops, as does a breathtaking 37.9 percent shooting mark inside the arc in SEC games.

The good news is that he can handle the ball and create shots, and his jump shot is already fairly respectable. I don’t think Jackson is an elite athlete, but he’s young enough to still go up another level; it’s also possible he’s not done growing. Again, this is the type of dart throw that makes more sense around the 40th pick, which is where I have him.

42. Maxwell Lewis, 20, 6-6 sophomore SF, Pepperdine
I was pretty disappointed to see Lewis sit out the combine games rather than play against some of the other likely second-rounders in the draft without the drawback of his overmatched Pepperdine team surrounding him. Lewis has some markers that make him attractive: He’s 6-6 in socks with a 7-0 wingspan, he posted a 32 1/2-inch no-step vertical, and he’s at least respectable as a shooter (35.4 percent from 3 on high volume; 79.1 percent from the line).

On the other hand, his actual season left a lot to be desired. Pepperdine was awful but perhaps shouldn’t have been with the talent on the floor; Lewis played a part in that. His numbers as a 20-year-old in the WCC: 14.6 PER on 49.9 percent true shooting. That’s more second-division Germany stuff than NBA prospect. Additionally, for a long, athletic wing, he was a shockingly bad defender; Lewis reliably got lost off the ball and posted an unusually low steal rate despite constant gambling.

Lewis also doesn’t read the game notably well off the dribble, with a high turnover rate and unremarkable efficiency inside the arc (47.3 percent on 2s in conference play).

Overall, once you get past “6-6 athlete with shooting!” Lewis seems like a serious reach in the first round with all the deficiencies in his game. There’s a right tail of upside that’s interesting, but it’s a low-probability gamble. Unlike the list of wings above, his shooting won’t keep him off the floor; instead, everything else will.

43. Terquavion Smith, 20, 6-3 sophomore SG, NC State
Smith has spent most of the last two years getting first-round buzz, with his case being as a volume 3-point launcher who can provide bench scoring. The problem is there’s no evidence he can actually shoot. His career marks are 35.2 percent from 3 and 70.0 percent from the line; why is this interesting? He’s not a point guard, and he weighs about 13 pounds soaking wet; in most scenarios, he projects as a worse version of Bones Hyland.

The upside scenario with Smith is that he does have some sneaky quickness and athleticism, and if he can just tilt his shooting percentages upward a bit more, the mad bombing becomes a legitimate weapon instead of a weird sideshow. Smith also quietly nearly doubled his assist rate from the year before, showing a bit more utility on the ball that could hint at eventually playing point guard full time. He had a high steal rate defensively, and while he can get steamrolled in physical matchups, he at least puts up a fight.

That’s fine to take a chance by the middle of the second round, but I wouldn’t take the plunge any earlier.

TIER XI: My favorite deep cuts
44. Jordan Miller, 23, 6-5 senior SF, Miami
File this one under “just a basketball player.” Miller is already 23 and had an unusually low usage rate for a draft prospect. He’s a reluctant 3-point shooter who made only 32.9 percent for his career. He measured 6-4 1/2 in socks at the combine.

And yet … he just gets stuff done. Miller has a 7-foot wingspan, tremendous feel for the game and a knack for scoring around the basket. He shot 58.4 percent on 2s in ACC play, handed out five assists per 100 possessions while maintaining a microscopic turnover rate and had an 11.1 percent rebound rate. In two games at the combine, he kept it up: Miller had 28 points and 15 rebounds in 40 minutes of action.

Miller is also a good defender with a high steal rate, although he may have to guard up a position as a pro because he doesn’t have the offensive toolset of a true shooting guard. One worries about how the shooting will hold up and his limited shot-creation ability. His basketball IQ and across-the-box-score production, however, could make him a funky, productive role player.

45. Toumani Camara, 23, 6-7 senior PF, Dayton
One of my favorite sleepers, the Belgium native has steadily improved in his time at Georgia and Dayton, progressing from a low-skill, undersized athletic five to a quasi-believable stretch four. Camara made 36.3 percent of his 3s in his final season at Dayton, although on low volume, and has been very effective finishing in the paint his entire career (60.6 percent on 2s last year). His foul shooting is a worrying negative indicator (63.1 percent career), but his stroke is also night and day better from where it was as a freshman.

Camara isn’t an elite leaper, but between high activity and a 7-foot wingspan, he still fills the stat sheet. His rebound rate was monstrous for a four (17.3 percent), and his 2.6 steals per 100 possessions was one of the best marks by a frontcourt player. It’s not just quick hands; he can move his feet on the perimeter, although he still is stressed against fast guards. Part of the selling point on Camara is buying the idea that this train is still going up, but as a switchable four who can hold his own defensively, his offense doesn’t need to be gangbusters to get on an NBA floor.

46. Adama Sanogo, 21, 6-7 junior C, Connecticut
Sanogo measuring at 6-7 1/4 in socks might have seemed like game over for his draft prospects, especially given his average leaping ability. However, he has a 7-3 wingspan and a deceptively high skill level that could still allow him to function as an offensive center. Nobody in college basketball could deal with this guy: he averaged 37.9 points per 100 possessions on 64.8 percent true shooting, and his team won the national title.

Sanogo added a 3-point shot to his repertoire in his final season, making 36.5 percent of his 52 tries — mostly wide-open attempts from the top of the key. He also shot 76.6 percent from the line, adding some believability to his stretch potential. The fact that he’s 21, and not 23 like a lot of other players in this section, gives him a bit more runway to improve too.

The 3-ball is an added plus because of the other stuff Sanogo can do on offense. He can handle the ball a bit and is a really good finisher with balance and craft around the basket and may be able to score at high rate on rolls and switches despite being undersized and unathletic. It’s possible the defense is too rough and renders him unplayable, but there’s a real possibility of him being a Naz Reid-type or Montrezl Harrell-type bench scorer.

47. Jaylen Clark, 21, 6-4 junior SG, UCLA
Clark comes in with a lot of question marks, starting with the nature of the Achilles injury that caused him to miss the end of UCLA’s season. Achilles “injury” doesn’t sound so bad, but Achilles “tear” is more problematic. Team medical staffs will be doing their due diligence on this part.

Clark was one of my favorite sleepers pre-injury, despite being short and not a great shooter. Defensively, he’s a phenomenal disruptor, registering an absurd 4.6 steals per 100 possessions in Pac-12 games this past season. He averaged 4.3 a year earlier, so it’s hardly a fluke. Clark is also an unbelievable rebounder for his size, with an 11.2 percent rebound rate in conference play.

His elite nose for the ball makes it easier to live with some of his shortcomings offensively. Clark actually scored at a decent rate because of transitions, cuts, rebounds and other assorted garbage points, but he’s a 30.2 percent career 3-point shooter with limited wiggle as a ballhandler.

Overall, he has a chance to make it as a poor man’s De’Anthony Melton if the Achilles is okay and the shooting isn’t too tragic. That makes him a good dice roll this far down the board.

48. Ricky Council IV, 21, 6-5 junior SG, Arkansas
This one is a pure eye-test call. Council has caught my eye since his freshman year at Wichita State due to his first-step quickness and ability to elevate for finishes at the end of the play. He didn’t have great numbers from his season with Arkansas, even though he led the team in scoring, but he drew fouls at a very high rate, and his conversion rate at the line (79.4 percent) offers a slight ray of hope that his 3-point shot is fixable.

Council’s defensive stats are also interesting, with a solid steal rate and the potential to be more at that end. He seemed to take to this more at the combine, heating up the ball on the perimeter. Between his strong frame and lateral quickness, he could have some latent stopper potential if he focuses on that area.

The big issue right now is his shot. Whether it’s on catch-and-shoots or pull-ups, it’s a problem. Council shoots elbow-out and sprays line drives spinning every which way but straight, and it might require a total rebuild to become functional at the pro level. The one piece of good news is that he seems able to align all the stars when perfectly still (witness the free-throw percentage), and that if he ever becomes halfway decent, his pull-up game off the dribble will be a real weapon.

49. Landers Nolley II, 23, 6-6 senior SF, Cincinnati
How was this guy not invited to the combine? You’d think a wing with size who shot 41.7 percent from 3 on high volume would garner more attention than Nolley has, especially when it’s accompanied by long arms and halfway decent athleticism. Nolley’s production his first three seasons offers some legitimate question marks, but he put it together his senior year, especially in AAC play, where he had a 24.6 PER on 58 percent true shooting.

Nolley is an average defender who will need to rely on effort on that end to get by, something that maybe wasn’t always in evidence in his college career. But he’s always been a plus rebounder for his size (12.3 percent in conference play last season), and in addition to his shooting, he’s an effective passer who averaged 4.7 dimes per 100 for his college career.

In an NBA starved for shooting from the wing position, I’m just a little surprised he’s stayed this far below the radar. Nolley’s stroke is pure, and when I watched him, I kept thinking, This is the type of guy Miami turns into a player in two years. We’ll see what happens.

50. Colin Castleton, 23, 6-11 senior C, Florida
Castleton is a bit forgotten after missing the second half of the season with a broken hand, but his numbers from his final two seasons at Florida make him at least somewhat interesting as a big man, especially if he can stretch his range to the 3-point line.

The post-ups he lived on at Florida are unlikely to translate well to the NBA game, and his finishing skill needs to go up another level. But Castleton has some craft to him offensively as a passer and screener that could get interesting, especially if the career 73.0 percent free-throw shooter can make a few 3s. He’s already 23, so don’t get your hopes too high, but he did steadily improve after playing just 67 minutes his freshman year at Michigan.

The big reason to buy on Castleton, however, is his defense. He rejected 5.5 shots per 100 possessions and shows enough comfort on the perimeter to offer some switchability at center. If he can defend the position, it may be easier to live with his questionable offense.

51. Logan Johnson, 23, 6-1 senior SG, St. Mary’s
The brother of former Heat and Nets guard Tyler Johnson, Logan offers similar pros and cons as a badly undersized shooting guard with plus athleticism and the ability to uncork highlight reel dunks on the move. Let’s start with the negatives: Johnson will be 24 on opening day, he shot 28.9 percent from 3 in his college career, and he doesn’t have the handle to play point guard.

Despite that, Johnson’s activity rate stands out, pilfering 2.8 steals per 100 possessions (after nabbing over 3.0 in three of his previous four seasons) and handing out nearly two assists for every turnover. His athleticism should also allow him more windows to finish in transition and on cuts than at St. Mary’s, which played the fifth-slowest pace in the entire country.

Realistically, I think it’s unlikely Johnson gets drafted, but he’d be a very interesting flier on a two-way. If he shoots at all, he can be a productive bench scorer, especially if paired with a bigger point guard who can cross-match with him on defense.

52. Jacob Toppin, 23, 6-8 senior PF, Kentucky
The brother of Knicks forward Obi Toppin, and like him a late bloomer. I’m a bit surprising Jacob hasn’t received more attention heading into the draft. The appeal for him is similar to his brother’s, as a high-energy, mobile forward who can make athletic plays on the move.

Jacob is skinnier and may struggle more with physicality as an NBA four, a position he likely needs to play because his shot is just too broken to be on the wing. A 28.9 percent career 3-point shooter flinging line drives toward the front of the rim, Toppin struggled to find room to operate in Kentucky’s constipated system but likely could carve out more windows for cuts and straight-line drives in a real offense. Getting a shot doctor to lift his shooting toward respectability would also do wonders, but Toppin is already 23, so let’s not get our hopes too high on that front.

Still, the history of Kentucky players post-John Calipari, combined with Toppin’s obvious athleticism, bodes well for his chances of making it as a late draft pick or two-way.

TIER XII: Stash picks
53. Tristan Vukčević, 20, 6-11 C, Partizan
Vukčević got everyone’s attention with a strong showing in the one combine game he played, showing a deft shooting touch that made it easy to project him as a pick-and-pop big. He’s fairly mobile for his size and can put it on the deck a little too. However, questions remain about his overall athleticism and ability to defend the position, as well as some worries about his softness and lack of physicality, and those are probably serious enough to push him down draft boards.

The good news for Vukčević is that A) a lot of teams have multiple second-rounders and limited roster spots, and B) the pool of stash candidates this year is pretty thin. Between those two things, we could see a team nab him as early as the high 30s.

54. Azuola Tubelis, 21, 6-9 junior PF, Arizona
Tubelis is an NCAA player but also a stash pick thanks to his Lithuanian passport, which makes it easier for a team to draft him now and keep him overseas until needed later. Tubelis was a very effective college big man despite having to share space with another giant post player (Oumar Ballo); he runs the floor well, has good hands and soft short-range touch and hunts the ball on the glass, where he posted an 18.4 percent rebound rate in Pac-12 games.

However, at the NBA level, he may be caught between positions. He’s only 6-9 with a 6-11 wingspan, his no-step vertical measured at just 23 1/2 inches, and he hasn’t shown any real instinct for rim protection. He’s not that well-suited to guarding the perimeter either and needs to shoot more consistently from 3 (29.5 percent career on low volume) to make him a believable four at the offensive end.

For that reason, the most likely outcome seems like him being picked in the 50s and put in the freezer for a team to check on in a few years while he develops overseas.

55. Nadar Hifi, 20, 6-2 PG, Le Portel
Hifi makes this list partly because nobody else does. If you’re looking for a stash and Vukčević and Tubelis are off the board, your realistic options are Hifi, Hifi and Hifi. The fact that he averaged 16.8 points per game in a pretty decent French League as a 20-year-old is at least somewhat interesting, even if the athletic indicators are worrying (one block the entire season, just a 5.5 percent rebound rate).

The thing that would make Hifi stick as a pro is outlier skill development, because he’s not going to get by on athleticism in the NBA. He is a crafty finisher and scorer even now but probably needs to become an elite 3-point shooter to really leverage this enough to stick at the NBA level. Hifi plays the two in Europe, but he’s undersized and would likely need to shift to point guard at the NBA level.
A two parter. See below.
 
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