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If the Hawks don’t take Sarr I might be done. He makes the most sense. Trade away some of these other folks.
2025 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
- Start date
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Clingan going #1 would be funny after all talk about Gobert lately 
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NBA Draft Confidential: Coaches, executives, scouts on 2024 top guard prospects
Oh, stop whining. It’s not that bad.
For months, NBA types and mock drafters have lamented the supposed awfulness of the 2024 NBA Draft. With no obvious pick at one this season — no Victor Wembanyama, or Zion Williamson or Anthony Davis — people have pulled at their hair and wailed. Well, no, there isn’t a clear-cut franchise-level talent this time around. There will be a lot more big swings and misses, in all likelihood, than there normally are in, say, your garden variety top 10 picks in a given year.
But that doesn’t mean this draft is devoid of skilled players. And it’s incumbent upon teams in rebuilding mode to still hit in this draft. It’s even more egregious to miss this year, precisely because the swing-and-miss possibilities are so high. But someone will draft a future All-Star Wednesday or Thursday, maybe an All-NBA player. There are always diamonds in the rough.
May I point you to 2013, when Cleveland took Anthony Bennett at No. 1, Orlando took Victor Oladipo at two, Washington took Otto Porter Jr. at three … and Milwaukee, at No. 15, took a guy we all know now, Giannis Antetokounmpo. And at No. 27, Denver took a French center it traded to Utah in a prearranged deal. More than a decade later, Rudy Gobert is a four-time Defensive Player of the Year winner.
So despite all the handwringing, someone is going to be happy in a year. I’m sure it’s going to be your team.
Once again, for those of you sitting in the back: I’ve been doing these for more than a decade, back to when I was working for NBA.com. I have made no bones about the fact that this is a blatant rip-off of Bruce Feldman’s NFL Draft Confidential, which runs in our pixels alongside Dane Brugler’s massive Beast. Dane writes a book-length dissertation on hundreds of players; Bruce goes into great depth about the top guys.
So, too, do I try, with these Confidentials, to complement the massive, year-long work of our Sam Vecenie on the NBA Draft. Sam travels the globe looking at any and everyone who dribbles a basketball that has a chance of being taken in a given year’s draft. I watch “White Men Can’t Jump” and “Eddie” for the 1,000th or so time on cable, and keep it moving.
But I do spend some time on this. Over the last three months or so, I’ve spoken to a few dozen college head coaches, college assistants, NBA GMs and personnel folks, who have a hundred or so different views on the top prospects. Everyone from the coaches who played against them to the executives who sat in the stands watching them.
These opinions hardly provide a consensus on any prospect; there is disagreement within every team’s war room about every player on their board, so the people I talk with aren’t going to settle whether a guy is going to make it. That’s up to the players.
As ever, though, I don’t name the people who are gracious enough to speak with me. The reason is simple: if I don’t, they’ll tell me what they really think. Sometimes that’s good, sometimes it’s bad. But it’s always honest.
So my moles just give me their unvarnished thoughts on what they like and don’t like about the top prospects. Who was hard to guard, and who was easy? Who accepted coaching? I don’t expect freshmen to be great defenders, but did they at least try? Did they appear to be good teammates? Did they improve from AAU or lower levels of international competition?
And, this is my thing: I always wonder how guys play with other guys who are also high draft prospects on their teams. Do they defer because the moment or matchup requires it, or do they hunt shots with no sense of who they’re playing? Also, who took advantage of the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, or their individual pro days, to move up the board?
We start, as ever, with the guards. Then we’ll do the wings, before finishing up with the bigs. In today’s NBA, there’s not a lot of difference between whether someone is projected as a guard or a wing in many cases. So you may not see someone today you think is a guard; in most cases, he will probably be listed among the wings next time.
Beauty: It’s in the eye of the beholder
There are no standalone elite guard prospects at the top of this year’s draft, as there was last year with Scoot Henderson, 2021 (Cade Cunningham), 2020 (Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball), 2019 (Ja Morant) or 2018 (Luka Dončić and Trae Young).
But, this year, there are multiple strong guards – Stephon Castle from Connecticut, Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard, Providence’s Devin Carter, Duke’s Jared McCain – with high- to mid-lottery grades from most teams.
This year, it really depends on what you need and who you like – and what shortcomings you’re willing to work with. Castle won the national championship this year for UConn and projects as a legit multi-positional defender, but has looming questions about his shot.
Sheppard was a ridiculously good shooter for the Wildcats (52 percent on 3s; .699 True Shooting Percentage), but he was just 182 pounds as of the Chicago combine. He is really small.
Carter, the son of former NBA guard Anthony Carter, is also small, and doesn’t shoot it great right now, but is a great competitor at both ends of the floor. McCain hit 41 percent from deep in his freshman season for the Blue Devils and is a more than willing defender, but can he run an NBA team?
Stephon Castle | 6-6 SG/SF | 19 years old | Connecticut
Western Conference scout No. 1: He’s got great size, he’s a really good athlete, he’s strong. He does everything but shoot it really well. Played for a terrific coach, and if you don’t play the right way and hard for Danny (Hurley), you don’t play. He buries you. He did all that, a freshman on a terrific team.
He’s got upside to his game. What is he, 19? I think he’s got a really bright future. It’s just, where is it? What’s his ceiling as a shooter? … If he can get to 35, 36 (percent) from 3, you have a really good player. I don’t think he’s a stone-cold point guard, but can he be a secondary ballhandler? Absolutely. …
When you can run pick and roll on both sides of the court, you really have the defense in a tough place. Can he be your primary guy? I don’t think so, but maybe he morphs into that one day. Secondary? Yeah, absolutely. Because he wants to pass. It’s not like, hey, I want the ball to score all the time. I’m willing to make plays. I think he can handle the ball plenty. Likes (defense). He’s tough, he’s gritty. He’s got that wired right now.
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: I don’t think Castle is a point guard, even though Connecticut played him there. He’s more off guard. Castle is a better defender (than Isaiah Collier). To me, they’re at two different positions. Because of the team they had, his development was probably hindered early, and he came on late.
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played UConn): He’s come a long way. … He’s kind of progressed. His shooting improved throughout the course of the year. But from the point guard standpoint, I think it’s possible for him, because he can handle the ball, he’s a talented kid. If the point guard is bringing the ball across halfcourt and throwing the ball to Devin Booker or Kevin Durant or Luka Dončić, then, sure.
He didn’t have a ton of reps at making plays for others in ball screens, and bringing the ball up and setting the table and all of that stuff. He wasn’t a guy that we just tried to attack one-on-one (defensively). … We tried to maintain and sustain our pace and movement as opposed to just going at him. And not just him. Tristen Newton was a good on-ball defender. Donovan Clingan was a monster. …
(Castle) was able to compete at the highest level because of his God-given tools, and then as the game became a little clearer for him over the course of the year, you could see him just improving on both sides of the ball.
College assistant coach No. 2 (his team played UConn): First time we played them, and I’d seen him at AAU, we were in the layup line and I told (my coach), that guy’s a pro. He’s gifted. I didn’t see the point guard thing. I’ve seen him saying that. I haven’t seen that. Obviously he didn’t play point for UConn. I don’t know. I can’t answer that. I know he’s a good player.
College assistant coach No. 3 (his team played UConn): I do love Castle. I think he’s going to be a real good pro for a long time. I just love his whole demeanor. His defensive side is so much ahead of his offensive size. Legit can guard three positions on the floor. He can get into a rotation because he can play three positions and he can guard three positions. He doesn’t shoot it great right now and it’s something he can work on. But you can put him on the floor, and he can guard.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: They knock his shooting, and it needs to get better. But it’s not bad, and it’s gotten better. To me, he’s the best chance of any of them to be an All-Star. He can play the one. He’s got a great feel. Can handle it. He’s a really good passer.
Is he a true one right now? Probably not. But he’s still better than most of the ones in the league right now. The (shooting) mechanics are good. This year at UConn he was much improved. … He’s got a great feel, great floor game. If he drops to San Antonio (at four), oh, my God. They’re going to be a *****.
Reed Sheppard | 6-2 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
Eastern Conference executive No. 3: He can playmake enough, as much as T.J. McConnell can. ‘Cause you’ve got to honor his jump shot. You’ve got to at least come out and guard him, and that’s going to open the floor up. A shot fake, he can put it on the floor, and he can pass it. And he played well in big games. That bodes well.
Western Conference executive No. 1: Sheppard, he fits everywhere. Because he can pass, he can dribble, he can shoot. And if you have those three things every single night, which he’ll do, he can fluctuate. Tonight, I don’t need to shoot and score it as much; I’m going to facilitate and pass it. I’m going to get us into our stuff.
Teams are going to test him. They’re going to go at him. He blends in nice and easy, not a lot of fanfare. But you pick up the stat sheet, he had 14 or 16 (points), four or five rebounds, seven or eight assists, and he just walks out of the arena, and no one knows who he is.
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: Elite shooter. Somebody mentioned he had a workout similar to what JJ Redick had coming out. He will be a point guard. He’ll be like Steph (Curry) was when he first came in; he played more on the ball than he does now. He has to improve his ballhandling. He has to learn the intricacies of pick and roll.
Great steal rate and quick hands, but most of that is coming off ball, not on ball. I think he’s going to struggle guarding point guards when he’s out on the island. He’s going to struggle, also, in pick and roll defense. But, he will win NBA 3-point shooting contests. Shooting and IQ will keep him on the floor. Depending on where he goes, the coaches will figure out what they can do to help him defensively. His height is his height. He’s close to what Kentucky had him. His wingspan is just a plus-two.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: He’s a very good player. He’s like (Zaccharie) Risacher. I’d love to have him. But as a top five to 10 pick? I don’t think he’s a lock to be a starter in the NBA. He might be, because he’s very good. But he’s not a true point. He’s a little undersized. He shoots the s— out of it. He does everything well, but I don’t know if he’s great at anything.
I think (Arkansas transfer) D.J. Wagner, if he has a good year next year, will be better than both of them (Rob Dillingham and Sheppard). If he goes to the right place and they put him in to score quick points, he’ll probably be pretty good. It depends.
College head coach No. 1 (his team played Kentucky): As good of a pure shooter as there was in college this year. Willing passer. Understands the offensive side of the game. Makes the right play. Unselfish. Defensively, he has a knack of anticipating passes and being able to jump passing lanes. Below average defender. Really struggled to keep good offensive players in front of him.
Devin Carter | 6-2 guard | 22 years old | Providence
Western Conference executive No. 2: He’s not a great shooter right now. But he’s so athletic and active and productive. He rebounds, he pushes the ball, he can defend. He strikes me as the kind of guy that will just get better and better in the league. And again, we have another guy who comes from the (basketball) background, with the dad. He’s been around this stuff.
Western Conference scout No. 1: He’s small. Like, 6-2 and a half. Really long, athletic. Better offensive player than we’ve given him credit for. He kind of proved that a little bit this year.
You don’t want to trust the shot, because it’s kind of funky, but he makes enough of them. He can really f—ing guard. He passes it well enough; he can make some pick and roll finds. And this motherf—er can rebound. I like him some. He’s got that blue collar ‘it’ factor s—, like his teammates will love him. You know who he’s like? He’s like Kyle Lowry. … He went into this year not on anyone’s draft board, and now he’s going first round.
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played Providence): After Bryce (Hopkins) got hurt, he took his usage to another level, by default. They lacked scoring, and (Josh) Odoro was a five man. … I thought Devin Carter was the best player on the floor, and it wasn’t close. His ability to shoot at NBA range — now, he has that funky jump shot, it looks kind of funky — but he shoots it with deep range.
Big time, big time athlete. Incredible motor. One of those guys, the way he looks, with his hair, he looks like he’s exhausted. He always looks like he’s going. But he never stops. He competes at both ends. … he was probably one of my favorite players this year in the league, because he played both ends, incredibly hard. He made tough shots, and deep shots, and finished at the rim, and played in transition.
College assistant coach No. 2 (his team played Providence): I love him because, to me, I’m an old-school guy. He has literally done it the right way, through hard work. He’s grinded, and made himself into a pro. He just wills himself into being a player. He’s really got it through the mud. He’s worked on his shot. He’s the ultimate competitor. …
Even if he didn’t work his way into the lottery, he would be one of those guys that got into a camp and make it anyway, because he’d outwork everybody. His shot’s not perfect form, but he’s made himself this year, again, into a 3-point shooter. He’s shooting logo 3s. It doesn’t look pretty, but he makes them. Defends at a high level. I love him. Everyone was talking about Bryce Hopkins, and I love Bryce. But I said Devin Carter is the heart and soul of that team. Unfortunately, Bryce got hurt, and Devin was allowed to flourish even more.
College assistant coach No. 1: I wouldn’t be surprised, if you told me he was a top-five pick, I’d be like, yeah, makes sense, somebody should take him. And he has the pedigree, growing up around the league. He probably understands that world better than the average college kid, probably seen it, probably been in gyms with pros growing up, just by default, being around his dad. I’d imagine he’s well-equipped from a perspective and a mentality standpoint to take this next step as well.
College assistant coach No. 2: I really don’t think his size defensively is going to hurt him. He’s an elite athlete. On a scale from 1 to 10 with toughness, he’s like a 9.9. I don’t think it’s going to come into play as much, because of all the other things that he does. Is he going to have to play some point? Probably. Is he guarding those 6-8 wing guys, Jayson Tatum kind of dudes? Probably not.
This year, he handled the ball a lot more. Kim (English) put him in ball screens. He has a good IQ, because he’s been around it, because of his dad. He’s a mature dude. You can have man conversations with him. He’s ain’t a little kid. He was working out with Dwyane Wade and all them guys. So he’s been around it.
Jared McCain | 6-2 guard | 20 years old | Duke
College head coach No. 2 (his team played Duke): He was a dog, man. He brought a toughness to their team. He can really, really shoot. And he knows how to play. He looks like he loves to play basketball, like there’s a joy there. There’s a competitive spirit. He’s not afraid. He’s really physical. I thought he took pride in trying to guard. He was the guard in our league that I was probably most impressed with. I thought he was (Duke’s) best pro prospect. …
They didn’t do ball screens with him as much. They ran him off of pindowns. He would get lost in transition, and when you were doubling Flip (center Kyle Filipowski), he can really shoot. He gets it off quick. And he knows he can shoot, so now he can attack the closeouts.
I thought he had really good strive. He can drive and bump you off to create space. His strength and physicality, it really showed on defense. He can really pressure you when he wanted to get after you. And he had the physicality where it’s hard to knock him off. That dude, man, is competitive. He played with an edge, but also a joy. He was like, I’m here, but I’m gonna smile, I’m gonna have fun.
College assistant coach No. 4 (his team played Duke): He’s really competitive. You know who he is? He’s the other Curry (Seth). More in that mode. But takes and makes big shots.
College assistant coach No. 5 (his team played Duke): Impressive. A lot of guys make shots when it don’t matter. He makes shots when it matters. It was my scout. He’s just a shot maker. In today’s NBA, I’m not sure, right now, if he puts it on the floor well enough to build a team around. But watching teams, right now, most teams have two stars, and you need somebody surrounding them making shots. With these great playmakers you’ve got, you need someone making shots. I think he can make an immediate impact. He did in high school. People doubted him. And he came to college and he did the exact same thing. And it’s not like he’s small. To be the best shotmaker, on a team that won the ACC? He’s a scorer.
As good as the guards (in the ACC) are, I know from myself, and talking to the other coaches in the league, he’s at the top of the scout list. He’s the NBA guy on that team. Everyone else, you had to live with one-on-one shots with their guards. … But he can take over a game. He makes four or five in a row. It’s a tie game, and before you know it, you’re down 10, 15.
I didn’t think Jalen Williams could (initiate offense). But Jalen Williams does a pretty good job, when Shai (Gilgeous-Alexander)’s not getting going, of being able to initiate the offense and make shots. (McCain’s)’s not a point guard, like Jalen Williams is not a point guard. But if you ask him to do that, yeah. I think he could develop into a poor man’s (Tyler) Herro. He’s not as crafty making shots. He’s not as crafty getting everybody else shots. But he can shoot it. And Herro developed into getting everybody else shots down the road. When he came in, it was about how do I get my shot?
College head coach No. 3 (his team played Duke): He can really shoot the ball. I thought that was the biggest thing with him. He can really defend. For me, maybe it was just against us, because when I watched against other people it was there. They say he can facilitate. I didn’t see that. I didn’t see no point guard. I saw an undersized two guard.
Well, let me say this — a positionless player, that if he plays with the right team, he’s capable of making shots, able to attack poor closeouts. Maybe in the Duke system, he wasn’t allowed to do as much dribbling. They obviously had (Jeremy) Roach and they had those guys, so it wasn’t like he was going to be the number one option. So I don’t want to take that away from him.
The thing that stuck out to me was the way he can shoot the damn ball. In transition, he was really good. I thought he did a good job of sprinting to space and attacking closeouts. And defensively, I thought he did a great job. He was good on the ball and off the ball. As we like to say, I don’t think he’s running from no competition. He came from California and went to Duke. Taking Cherokee Parks out of the equation, we’d be hard-pressed to think of the last California kid who went to Duke and had success.
Best of the next
Serbian guard Nikola Topić was a potential top-five pick before suffering a partial ACL tear in the Adriatic League playoffs. It was his second injury to that knee this past year; he injured it previously in January at the start of his stint with top team Red Star Belgrade. At 6-6, with detailed passing and ballhandling skills, Topić looks the part of an NBA point guard — with one big exception: the 18-year-old has never shot the ball consistently well from 3 at any level yet.
Pittsburgh’s Bub Carrington has a lot of supporters on both the college and pro sides, and has been steadily moving up potential draft boards for weeks. Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham is a blur with the ball, and is pegged by many teams as the latest Kentucky guard from now-former Wildcats coach John Calipari’s program to excel in the pros. But, weighing in at 164 pounds at the combine, Dillingham’s Iversonian build gives some teams pause.
Baylor’s Ja’Kobe Walter was Big 12 Freshman of the Year and comes from a program where not playing defense isn’t an option. But he’ll probably have to bulk up some to handle the pounding he’ll get in the NBA as a two guard/wing.
Illinois’ Terrence Shannon, Jr., had a much more serious issue: he had been charged with rape in connection with an alleged incident in September 2023, at a bar in Lawrence, Kan. Shannon vociferously denied touching the woman. Illinois suspended him indefinitely after the incident was disclosed, but he only missed six games before returning to the team after being granted a temporary restraining order. The university dropped its investigation of Shannon in April. And earlier this month, a Kansas jury deliberated 90 minutes before acquitting Shannon on both charges, allowing teams that had red-flagged him while his case was being adjudicated to put him back on their boards.
Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda
Eastern Conference executive No. 4: He was having a great season. He had the knee injury. But, while having that great season, he was a European player who played with a very high IQ. Had the ball in his hands. Was a downhill guard that finishes in traffic, and was crafty and heady. But he wasn’t shooting the ball well. I’m trying to think of how Europeans of have succeeded, of late, that couldn’t shoot the 3.
I don’t want to call him a non-shooter, but was like more trending toward not shooting well. Everybody is going to defend him and say, “Look at the free throw percentage.” I’ve watched this kid for a while. He doesn’t shoot the 3 at a high rate. … But, he’s a big guard. He’s very heady. He has a knack for finishing at the rim off of different feet, different hands. Can play through contact. Draws fouls at a high rate, makes free throws.
I’m not discounting him. Again, top five for a European guard that doesn’t shoot the ball? That’s tough. You go in an NBA locker room, and you’re the guy from Europe, and then we get on the floor and you can’t shoot? They’re going to be like, “I thought that’s what they brought you here for”
And “can’t shoot” is a little harsh. But he trends more toward, he’s an offensive prober. He shoots the jumper as a last ditch (resort). He’s a guy that puts it on the deck, and he probes, and gets downhill, and will create body contact and finish. He’s a great finisher. And he’s really smart in terms of letting offense run, and picking out moments when to dart to the basket, and cut. He’s a smart player. It’s just that the shooting, there’s something to be desired.
Eastern Conference scout: I don’t know that he’s injury-prone; he just has this injury. He’s interesting. Great size, can pass, improved shooter.
Western Conference executive No. 1: The medical we’ve gotten is, they don’t seem that concerned. They think it’s good stuff. It seems like it’s just a kindling with this. This doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a chronic thing. It isn’t like he went to UNC, and you know their medical staff. He’s playing in Europe, and he’s out of sight, out of mind. He’s represented by one of the most powerful agents in Europe (Miško Ražnatović), and Miško has been able to manipulate what he needs. …
If he starts dropping, it’s not because of his size, his age, and his skill; it’s going to be because of something else, and that’s going to be the knee. But it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a wildfire, where this is legitimately a concern. Right now, when we break him down, how can we add a non-shooter to what we have? You put so much pressure on your player development area — guys, we have to make him to be a respectable shooter. And what that means is, 38 percent, 39 percent from 3. And he’s never done that in his career. But, you guys have to make him that. You can love his size and you love his passing ability and you can love his basketball IQ, but at the end of the day, in the league, you have to be able to make a shot.
Bub Carrington | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | Pittsburgh
College assistant coach No. 4 (his team played Pitt): I love him. I know him well. Recruited him a little bit. Works his *** off. Gotten taller. Not the best athlete, but the skill set — ballhandling, shooting. I bet some of that athleticism, quick-twitch stuff improves. And he’s young for his grade. Grew late. Dad had a plan. He wasn’t sending him to anybody; he was going to send him to good people. But the kid can play. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a good comp for him, and Nickeil was (17th, in 2019). That kind of big guard, can play both positions, shoots the 3.
Western Conference scout No. 1: Not a great athlete, but he has size. He’s 18 years old. Can dribble, pass. He shoots it will enough. People think he doesn’t shoot well enough. I do. He’s going to get better. He’s got a feel. He cuts hard. Someone’s going to get a good player.
College assistant coach No. 5 (his team played Pitt): Long, makes shots, tough. Just a prototypical NBA guard. Can come off the ball screen, got the floater. Can defend. But more than anything, he’s got that ball-to-ball toughness. He’s tough. The right team, that’s used to big guards, he’s going to have a long career in the NBA. Other than McCain, who’s been doing this longer, I don’t see them having a different career when it’s all said and done. What they do right away may be different, but down the road, you may be talking about similar players. And Bub can play some point, too. He’s the one that can definitely bring it up the floor and do all that.
College head coach No. 3 (his team played Pitt): To me, he’s somebody who (you) can conjecture, people will say down the line that he’s one of the best players to come out of this draft. His upside is tremendous. And his body of work, in a short period of time, he put in work. He’s versatile. He can make shots. I think his versatility as a guard will be seen as he goes along.
I like him. I think he’s got a shot. And, he’s young. He’s a good player. I thought he was one of the best players in the conference as a freshman. To me, he was a seasoned offensive player. He can play with it and without it. He can play in ball screens, he can get DHO, make the play. He made good reads. And he’s got good size.
He hit a lull, I think, early ACC. But he made up for that. He had a good disposition as well. It isn’t easy to come as a freshman from day one. He wasn’t highly recruited. That meant he had some good coaching, and you can tell by the way he plays. He plays the right way. He was seasoned. That s— means something to me. It wasn’t just about scoring the ball; he was filling the whole stat sheet. As he gets stronger, he’ll get better (defensively).
College head coach No. 4 (his team played Pitt): The thing that was really impressive about Bub, to me, was he can go get his own shot. It wasn’t like he had to have his feet set, catch and make a shot. He can get it off the dribble. I mean, he can shoot it off the catch. The most impressive thing for me was his size, and his ability to create a shot off the dribble. In that league, that’s probably paramount, right; having guys that can create and make shots.
And, he’s young. I know the NBA is all caught up in that. I like Bub. Not a great athlete, but good enough. Not a high flier. But just an old-school, East Coast, Baltimore, tough-*** guard. I think he passes it OK. For Jeff (Capel) and their team, it was about scoring. I saw him in high school, and I didn’t envision him having that kind of impact as a freshman. I think he’s a tough kid. So I’m not surprised he’s a first-round pick.
Rob Dillingham | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
Eastern Conference executive No. 3: He’s kind of like the Tyrese Maxey of this draft. ‘Cause if you look at his Kentucky numbers, his stats are way better than Maxey’s were coming out of Kentucky. Guys like that, in that combo box, that can score, they stay around. And that’s what they do — they score. Dillingham is 6-1, 6-2. When everybody kept saying he’s little, I was saying ‘he ain’t Isiah Thomas little, or Nate Robinson little.’ They’re like, ‘I worry about his size.’ I’m like, he’s probably bigger than f—— Maxey. When he came out, everybody was talking about size, and what position can he play. When a guy can hoop, let him hoop and put him out there and leave him alone. That’s Dillingham. Let’s not overthink it too much. He’s got short arms, so he doesn’t look tall.
Western Conference executive No. 1: When he’s on the floor, he has the free pass card. You’re not putting him in the corner and watching him stand. He has the ball, and he is doing his thing. And if he has it going, you’re letting him get loose. And he may not have it that night where he doesn’t and then he’s sitting. But he changes the speed, the offensive flow. Cat-quick. You let him do his thing. Dillingham is going to become a crowd favorite for whatever team he plays for, because he’s just electric. He’s going to have his jersey sell out with kids, because (they’ll think) ‘I can be like him.’
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: As we say, he’s a bucket getter. He knows how to create off the dribble with his game, where he can get to spots, even though he’s very thin and not very strong. But he can get to his spots and get his shot off. He may struggle early with getting to the basket. More of what you call a scoring point than a true point. He would be, whereas Reed could be a starter, Robert may be more valuable as a sixth man. That’s not to say he can’t start. But his importance to a team may be more coming off the bench. When Maxey came out, Cal had him at more of a two than the point. Maxey played (point guard) in high school, whereas this guy was a scorer with the ball in his hands. Defensively, he’s going to struggle to stay in front of people. He was in foul trouble a lot this season, because he was out of position, or he was reaching to steal the ball. I don’t see that changing in the NBA until he gets the defensive discipline to keep his hands in front of him.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: You’re going to think I’m crazy, but Dillingham scares me. He’s an explosive scorer, and he’s tough. But he’s the worst defender. And he does not have a great feel as a point guard. Those kind of guys scare me. It may work out, but he’s a bad defensive player. He’s small and doesn’t defend. Look at Bones Hyland, who I like. Very good on offense. He struggled in Denver because he couldn’t defend. Gets to L.A. (with the Clippers), same thing. With NBA coaches, if you can’t defend, it’s hard to get on the floor. (Dillingham) is an elite scorer. I’ll give him that. And he’s tough as nails. It’s not that I hate him. But they’re talking about top 10. I wouldn’t do it.
College head coach No. 1 (his coach played Kentucky): Explosive speed and quickness. Unlimited range. Can shoot you out of games or shoot you back into games. Has good offensive basketball IQ with his passing ability. Needs to add weight and get stronger. Very slight and will get pushed around.
Ja’Kobe Walter | 6-4 SG/SF | 19 years old | Baylor
Eastern Conference scout: I think he’s going to be really good. He’s going to be a good value pick in the teens.
College assistant coach No. 7 (his team played Baylor): Not as high on him as others. We pressure the ball, and to me, he’s not great with the ball in his hands, creating for himself. He can really stretch the floor, shoot it on the move, great size, and he competed defensively, especially for a freshman. He was locked in, even if he was missing shots. The one thing he has to continue to develop is he has to be able to put the ball on the floor at some point, a couple of dribbles. I know there’s specialized situations for the NBA, where he can just be a 3 and D guy, which I’m sure his projection is. He can really shoot it and do all that. But I did think the physicality bothered him a little bit. When he played us, when he wasn’t about to just be free in space, it was like, okay, these are big boys, here. But obviously a first-round talent. The size, strength, athleticism, shot-making, it’s just hard to find.
Western Conference scout No. 2: His best basketball is ahead of him. He needs player development. He can be a good player in the league, especially if he wants to be. Sometimes he’ll defend and you say, ‘Damn.’ And then sometimes he slides (and doesn’t). But all of these young dudes are like that. You have to tell them what you want. He got it off the bounce pretty well in high school and this year. He was running a system (at Baylor), but when he needed to, he got it off the dribble. That’s something he has to get better at at the next level, because they’re bigger, stronger, and just as athletic. So all of that is gonna come. What’s going to happen is at Summer League, you’re going to get a good test. Then he’s going to see ‘that’s what I need to work on.’ And he’s doing it at the agent workouts. Everybody picks up the shooting once they get in the building. Take Lu Dort. They killed him in college: ‘Yeah, he can defend, but he can’t shoot.’ I said once he gets in the building, he gets his first check, he’s gonna see how much money he got, he’s gonna be like, oh, s—, let me come back the next day and start (shooting).’ Now he’s an $85 million player. And just a couple of years ago, he couldn’t shoot. If they love the game, the shooting is gonna come.
Terrence Shannon Jr. | 6-6 SG/SF | 23 years old | Illinois
Western Conference executive No. 1: Initially, a nice rotational piece every night in the regular season. He’s going to get buckets. There’s going to be some nights where you scratch your head and say ‘Did he just shoot that?’ And then there’s going to be other nights when he goes for 25, 28, and you’re like, wow. He’s a man. He should be able to step in next year, because he can compete athletically, he can compete physically. And, when he wants to defend, he can. Offensively, he can go get it. I truly believe he will be, at this time next year, in the conversation for First Team All-Rookie. At worst, second team. In most cases, he will be drafted by a pretty good team. I think he’s going to be late teens at best, 20s and worst. And those are playoff teams. They have guys that know how to play. Their roles are already defined.
Is it going to take a while? Yes. But he knows the landscape of what’s in front of him. He is not a consistent defender. His role at Illinois the past two years has been, it’s fallen on his shoulders to do so much scoring, and creating offensively. But when he wanted to lock in, he can get into guys. He can get into people. Is he a Herb Jones? No. Herb is an every possession guy. Terrence, there’s going to be some times when there’s some mental lapses. But then usually, he’s going to make it up for you and will get it back with a steal three or four possessions later.
College assistant coach No. 6 (his team played Illinois): He is a good player. Really good player. He’s the best player in college that I saw last year driving the ball in transition. It’s like LeBron in his heyday — those Miami days where he would just drive the ball as hard as he could, and run right into you. That’s what Shannon did. We’d have two guys standing there, locked arms, and he would run right into you. He’s a decent 3-point shooter. I question his character a little. They say he’s a hard worker, though. He prides himself, (Illinois coach) Brad Underwood swears he’s one of the best defenders in the country. But he played us and he could not wait for somebody to come up and set a screen so he could switch. But the kid is fearless. He’s got an incredible, athletic body. And he can run. He is a very, very talented player.
College Assistant coach No. 3 (his team played Illinois): Love him. He’s one of the guys that, he has gotten better since he’s transferred to Illinois from Texas Tech. He’s definitely been in the gym working on his game. Tough, competitor. Shot has gotten a lot better. Competes on both ends. Very fast with the ball. What it will look like at the next level, I’m not sure. He has good positional size, and he’s just tough and he competes. He’s a better player than (Cam) Christie, and I think he’ll be a better pro than Christie as well. … He’s a little older. I liked him as a kid. I didn’t see him as being a guy that was a locker room guy. From what I know, teammates, (and) our guys got along with him. Inner city Chicago. Always a tough kid. I don’t think he had any underlying issues, if that makes sense. I don’t see him as being that type of kid.
Eastern Conference executive No 2: He’s a damn good defender. Shooting is a little sporadic, but it’s gotten better. You talk about tough, now. He’s tough as s—. If he goes to a certain team, I could see him starting next year. He could start for us, probably.
Eastern Conference executive No. 5: As early as late lottery (post-dismissal). His age (23) may be a factor for rebuilding teams.
The Best of the Rest
Southern California’s Isaiah Collier was a projected top-10 pick early in the college season, but his stock slipped as the Trojans stumbled to a 15-18 record despite having high preseason expectations. He led the team in assists per game (4.3) and was second in scoring (16.3). Marquette’s Tyler Kolek had a sensational season, leading the country in assists (7.7) and leading the Golden Eagles to a Sweet 16 berth. Eighteen-year-old A.J. Johnson opted to play overseas for Illawarra in Australia’s National Basketball League after initially committing to go to Texas, and is hoping to follow in the footsteps of LaMelo Ball, who turned a year at Illawarra into getting picked third in the 2020 draft by Charlotte.
Minnesota’s Cam Christie, the younger brother of former Michigan State guard Max Christie, made the Big 10’s all-Freshman team. Houston’s Jamal Shead, a ballhawking pest, was both first team all-Big 12 and the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year, and hopes to be the latest Cougars player to make the NBA out of the Kelvin Sampson program, one of the best in the country.
Isaiah Collier | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | USC
Eastern Conference scout: I think the guy that’s going to be (Tyrese) Maxey, this year’s Cam Whitmore, this year, is Isaiah Collier. I’m betting on what I saw before he went to USC. He just can’t go to a dysfunctional team. It’s like Whitmore. If he goes to a team where there’s guys that are ahead of him, and he has to work his way into it, and he’s not in a dysfunctional program, I think he’s got a chance to be pretty darn good. Especially if he falls like Cam and Maxey (did) to the 20s, or the late teens. Like Whitmore (at Villanova), their team didn’t do well, and there’s not a touchy-feely love story to them. Isaiah’s obviously got a few issues here and there. We all make excuses for the guys we like, and we do the opposite as well. It’s easy to dismiss those guys because of their persona.
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: Football body that he can bully people with. I think Collier is a lot better than he showed this season. His decision making has to improve, because he was throwing some passes he shouldn’t have thrown, getting into the lane, making decisions. He got hurt, also, so that hindered him a little bit. He struggled early because he couldn’t shoot the ball well. You also had Boogie Ellis on that team, who was trying to get his.
Western Conference scout No. 1: If he was at pick 20 or something, he would get my interest a little bit. He gets on the rim. He gets to the basket. Is he a great shooter? No, he’s not. If he was a great shooter, we’d be talking about him in the top five. But he’s talented, and he’s 19. Don’t ask me all these inane, stupid questions. He’s talented. They’ll figure it out. Don’t give me these bums that can’t play. That’s what this is about.
Tyler Kolek | 6-1 guard | 23 years old | Marquette
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played Marquette): Unbelievable worker. I did not know he would turn out like this. I think the stars aligned, getting a guy like Oso (Ighadaro) next to him, and a coach like Shaka (Smart). He’s been incredible.
College assistant coach No. 2 (his team played Marquette): Obviously he’s smart, sees the play before the play. He’s not a great shooter, I don’t care what they say. He’s not a great shooter. But he can run a team. I don’t get the Steve Nash comparisons. But, good player. Tough, one of those tough White guys that can hoop with the brothers all day. He’s just smart. Heady. Not overly athletic. But he’s tough. Good player.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: I’m not as high on him as others. But I see what they see. You can’t count him out. It’s like TJ (McConnell). Nobody thought he’d make the league, and he made the league. And Kolek is the same type of guy. But the difference is, TJ is quick, and Kolek is not quick. I wouldn’t bet against him, but I’m not as high on him.
A.J. Johnson | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Illawarra
Western Conference executive No. 1: I was impressed with the tape that we got. I was really, and it’s such a small sample size. But I thought the way he played in Chicago was pretty darn good for a youngster. He didn’t back down to anybody, and he made plays. Defensively, he is, right now, completely lost. But how many 6-4, 6-5, legitimate point guards, that can make a play, seize it, can deliver it, have some imagination, and are 18, 19 years old? What does this kid look like in three years? If you do it the right way, he on (G League) assignment, he’s in the weight room, he’s with your strength and conditioning, he’s with your dietician. You may have the makings, at worst, of a reliable backup? That’s not a bad swing. If this kid was in college, and he was a freshman, and he went back to school, he’d be one of the top returners in the country. And I doubt you could, in next year’s draft, that you could get him where you can get him in this year’s draft.
Cam Christie | 6-5 SG/SF | 18 years old | Minnesota
College assistant coach No. 6 (his team played Minnesota): What the kid can do is he can elevate on his jump shot and do it off the dribble. Dribble into 3s. … I think his lack of strength is gonna hurt him. Who’s he gonna guard is gonna hurt him. Is the team going to be patient enough? But the kid does have skill. He doesn’t look tough, but he’s tougher than he looks. Great family. His mom played at Northwestern. His Dad played Division II. For one family to have two players, potentially, in the NBA is a hell of a deal. I still don’t know how good Max is. Max is never gonna play for the Lakers, I don’t think. How good is Cam gonna be? Can he be a rotational player? That remains to be seen. He definitely needed another year of school. He was either gonna go in the draft or to a (college) blueblood. But he’s rolling the dice. He probably would have made more money in college than in the second round. Somebody would have given that kid $500,000. Somebody’s gonna take him.
College assistant coach No. 3 (his team played Minnesota): People say it every year, like this is a bad draft. It’s a bad class. There’s always going to be players in every class. Christie, he’s going to be a good player, hopefully. He’s got the tools to be. He’s not ready right now. He’s not ready to be in the league right now. Good shooter, great size. Sneaky athleticism. Doesn’t really guard, but you can say that about all these kids. I don’t know what makes a pro now. The last two years, I’ve seen things I’ve never seen, ever. Lottery picks playing in the G League. Up until a few years ago, lottery picks were expected to be part of a rotation. I think he’s a young kid (will turn 19 in July), actually. Spitting image of his brother, similar player. He’s going to be a good player, but it’s going to take time for him to mature. His body needs to fill out. He comes from a good family.
Jamal Shead | 6-0 guard | 21 years old | Houston
Eastern Conference executive No. 6: Probably the best on-ball defender, perimeter wise, in the draft. Super tough, high character, big-time leader. He’s a little small, and his offense has to improve. It’s hard to play at that size if they don’t have to respect your jump shot. That’s something he has to continue to work on. He would, I guess, get drafted in the second round and he’ll probably, depending on where he goes, play a lot in the G League the first year. At the first game in the combine, he hit some jumpers. He was pretty effective offensively. It showed kind of a glimpse into maybe what he could be. But that’s not who he’s been. So he’s got to get closer to that level. But, defensively, just as a guy on your team, you couldn’t go wrong with him. He’s as solid as they come.
College assistant coach No. 7 (his team played Houston): Absolutely love him. Coach Sampson is just a monster. Those guys are on another level. He’s such a dynamic player, obviously, on both sides on the floor, but probably the best on-ball defender in the draft. He was the one guy we played that you talked more about his defensive effort and defensive impact than offense. … To me, he just elicits winning. He’s going to find a way to make them win the possession. Make them win this, make them win that. Clearly, the best player in our league. We talk about him all the time: ‘That’s what you’re trying to get to.’ I think he’s going to be successful, whether it’s a backup point guard, third-string point guard, whatever it may be. I think he’ll play in the NBA for a while. He shoots it fine, too. It gradually got better. He was such a guy that could just dominate the paint, so he didn’t have to utilize it. But he’d make one out of three, just enough to keep you honorable.
Oh, stop whining. It’s not that bad.
For months, NBA types and mock drafters have lamented the supposed awfulness of the 2024 NBA Draft. With no obvious pick at one this season — no Victor Wembanyama, or Zion Williamson or Anthony Davis — people have pulled at their hair and wailed. Well, no, there isn’t a clear-cut franchise-level talent this time around. There will be a lot more big swings and misses, in all likelihood, than there normally are in, say, your garden variety top 10 picks in a given year.
But that doesn’t mean this draft is devoid of skilled players. And it’s incumbent upon teams in rebuilding mode to still hit in this draft. It’s even more egregious to miss this year, precisely because the swing-and-miss possibilities are so high. But someone will draft a future All-Star Wednesday or Thursday, maybe an All-NBA player. There are always diamonds in the rough.
May I point you to 2013, when Cleveland took Anthony Bennett at No. 1, Orlando took Victor Oladipo at two, Washington took Otto Porter Jr. at three … and Milwaukee, at No. 15, took a guy we all know now, Giannis Antetokounmpo. And at No. 27, Denver took a French center it traded to Utah in a prearranged deal. More than a decade later, Rudy Gobert is a four-time Defensive Player of the Year winner.
So despite all the handwringing, someone is going to be happy in a year. I’m sure it’s going to be your team.
Once again, for those of you sitting in the back: I’ve been doing these for more than a decade, back to when I was working for NBA.com. I have made no bones about the fact that this is a blatant rip-off of Bruce Feldman’s NFL Draft Confidential, which runs in our pixels alongside Dane Brugler’s massive Beast. Dane writes a book-length dissertation on hundreds of players; Bruce goes into great depth about the top guys.
So, too, do I try, with these Confidentials, to complement the massive, year-long work of our Sam Vecenie on the NBA Draft. Sam travels the globe looking at any and everyone who dribbles a basketball that has a chance of being taken in a given year’s draft. I watch “White Men Can’t Jump” and “Eddie” for the 1,000th or so time on cable, and keep it moving.
But I do spend some time on this. Over the last three months or so, I’ve spoken to a few dozen college head coaches, college assistants, NBA GMs and personnel folks, who have a hundred or so different views on the top prospects. Everyone from the coaches who played against them to the executives who sat in the stands watching them.
These opinions hardly provide a consensus on any prospect; there is disagreement within every team’s war room about every player on their board, so the people I talk with aren’t going to settle whether a guy is going to make it. That’s up to the players.
As ever, though, I don’t name the people who are gracious enough to speak with me. The reason is simple: if I don’t, they’ll tell me what they really think. Sometimes that’s good, sometimes it’s bad. But it’s always honest.
So my moles just give me their unvarnished thoughts on what they like and don’t like about the top prospects. Who was hard to guard, and who was easy? Who accepted coaching? I don’t expect freshmen to be great defenders, but did they at least try? Did they appear to be good teammates? Did they improve from AAU or lower levels of international competition?
And, this is my thing: I always wonder how guys play with other guys who are also high draft prospects on their teams. Do they defer because the moment or matchup requires it, or do they hunt shots with no sense of who they’re playing? Also, who took advantage of the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, or their individual pro days, to move up the board?
We start, as ever, with the guards. Then we’ll do the wings, before finishing up with the bigs. In today’s NBA, there’s not a lot of difference between whether someone is projected as a guard or a wing in many cases. So you may not see someone today you think is a guard; in most cases, he will probably be listed among the wings next time.
Beauty: It’s in the eye of the beholder
There are no standalone elite guard prospects at the top of this year’s draft, as there was last year with Scoot Henderson, 2021 (Cade Cunningham), 2020 (Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball), 2019 (Ja Morant) or 2018 (Luka Dončić and Trae Young).
But, this year, there are multiple strong guards – Stephon Castle from Connecticut, Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard, Providence’s Devin Carter, Duke’s Jared McCain – with high- to mid-lottery grades from most teams.
This year, it really depends on what you need and who you like – and what shortcomings you’re willing to work with. Castle won the national championship this year for UConn and projects as a legit multi-positional defender, but has looming questions about his shot.
Sheppard was a ridiculously good shooter for the Wildcats (52 percent on 3s; .699 True Shooting Percentage), but he was just 182 pounds as of the Chicago combine. He is really small.
Carter, the son of former NBA guard Anthony Carter, is also small, and doesn’t shoot it great right now, but is a great competitor at both ends of the floor. McCain hit 41 percent from deep in his freshman season for the Blue Devils and is a more than willing defender, but can he run an NBA team?
Stephon Castle | 6-6 SG/SF | 19 years old | Connecticut
Western Conference scout No. 1: He’s got great size, he’s a really good athlete, he’s strong. He does everything but shoot it really well. Played for a terrific coach, and if you don’t play the right way and hard for Danny (Hurley), you don’t play. He buries you. He did all that, a freshman on a terrific team.
He’s got upside to his game. What is he, 19? I think he’s got a really bright future. It’s just, where is it? What’s his ceiling as a shooter? … If he can get to 35, 36 (percent) from 3, you have a really good player. I don’t think he’s a stone-cold point guard, but can he be a secondary ballhandler? Absolutely. …
When you can run pick and roll on both sides of the court, you really have the defense in a tough place. Can he be your primary guy? I don’t think so, but maybe he morphs into that one day. Secondary? Yeah, absolutely. Because he wants to pass. It’s not like, hey, I want the ball to score all the time. I’m willing to make plays. I think he can handle the ball plenty. Likes (defense). He’s tough, he’s gritty. He’s got that wired right now.
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: I don’t think Castle is a point guard, even though Connecticut played him there. He’s more off guard. Castle is a better defender (than Isaiah Collier). To me, they’re at two different positions. Because of the team they had, his development was probably hindered early, and he came on late.
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played UConn): He’s come a long way. … He’s kind of progressed. His shooting improved throughout the course of the year. But from the point guard standpoint, I think it’s possible for him, because he can handle the ball, he’s a talented kid. If the point guard is bringing the ball across halfcourt and throwing the ball to Devin Booker or Kevin Durant or Luka Dončić, then, sure.
He didn’t have a ton of reps at making plays for others in ball screens, and bringing the ball up and setting the table and all of that stuff. He wasn’t a guy that we just tried to attack one-on-one (defensively). … We tried to maintain and sustain our pace and movement as opposed to just going at him. And not just him. Tristen Newton was a good on-ball defender. Donovan Clingan was a monster. …
(Castle) was able to compete at the highest level because of his God-given tools, and then as the game became a little clearer for him over the course of the year, you could see him just improving on both sides of the ball.
College assistant coach No. 2 (his team played UConn): First time we played them, and I’d seen him at AAU, we were in the layup line and I told (my coach), that guy’s a pro. He’s gifted. I didn’t see the point guard thing. I’ve seen him saying that. I haven’t seen that. Obviously he didn’t play point for UConn. I don’t know. I can’t answer that. I know he’s a good player.
College assistant coach No. 3 (his team played UConn): I do love Castle. I think he’s going to be a real good pro for a long time. I just love his whole demeanor. His defensive side is so much ahead of his offensive size. Legit can guard three positions on the floor. He can get into a rotation because he can play three positions and he can guard three positions. He doesn’t shoot it great right now and it’s something he can work on. But you can put him on the floor, and he can guard.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: They knock his shooting, and it needs to get better. But it’s not bad, and it’s gotten better. To me, he’s the best chance of any of them to be an All-Star. He can play the one. He’s got a great feel. Can handle it. He’s a really good passer.
Is he a true one right now? Probably not. But he’s still better than most of the ones in the league right now. The (shooting) mechanics are good. This year at UConn he was much improved. … He’s got a great feel, great floor game. If he drops to San Antonio (at four), oh, my God. They’re going to be a *****.
Reed Sheppard | 6-2 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
Eastern Conference executive No. 3: He can playmake enough, as much as T.J. McConnell can. ‘Cause you’ve got to honor his jump shot. You’ve got to at least come out and guard him, and that’s going to open the floor up. A shot fake, he can put it on the floor, and he can pass it. And he played well in big games. That bodes well.
Western Conference executive No. 1: Sheppard, he fits everywhere. Because he can pass, he can dribble, he can shoot. And if you have those three things every single night, which he’ll do, he can fluctuate. Tonight, I don’t need to shoot and score it as much; I’m going to facilitate and pass it. I’m going to get us into our stuff.
Teams are going to test him. They’re going to go at him. He blends in nice and easy, not a lot of fanfare. But you pick up the stat sheet, he had 14 or 16 (points), four or five rebounds, seven or eight assists, and he just walks out of the arena, and no one knows who he is.
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: Elite shooter. Somebody mentioned he had a workout similar to what JJ Redick had coming out. He will be a point guard. He’ll be like Steph (Curry) was when he first came in; he played more on the ball than he does now. He has to improve his ballhandling. He has to learn the intricacies of pick and roll.
Great steal rate and quick hands, but most of that is coming off ball, not on ball. I think he’s going to struggle guarding point guards when he’s out on the island. He’s going to struggle, also, in pick and roll defense. But, he will win NBA 3-point shooting contests. Shooting and IQ will keep him on the floor. Depending on where he goes, the coaches will figure out what they can do to help him defensively. His height is his height. He’s close to what Kentucky had him. His wingspan is just a plus-two.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: He’s a very good player. He’s like (Zaccharie) Risacher. I’d love to have him. But as a top five to 10 pick? I don’t think he’s a lock to be a starter in the NBA. He might be, because he’s very good. But he’s not a true point. He’s a little undersized. He shoots the s— out of it. He does everything well, but I don’t know if he’s great at anything.
I think (Arkansas transfer) D.J. Wagner, if he has a good year next year, will be better than both of them (Rob Dillingham and Sheppard). If he goes to the right place and they put him in to score quick points, he’ll probably be pretty good. It depends.
College head coach No. 1 (his team played Kentucky): As good of a pure shooter as there was in college this year. Willing passer. Understands the offensive side of the game. Makes the right play. Unselfish. Defensively, he has a knack of anticipating passes and being able to jump passing lanes. Below average defender. Really struggled to keep good offensive players in front of him.
Devin Carter | 6-2 guard | 22 years old | Providence
Western Conference executive No. 2: He’s not a great shooter right now. But he’s so athletic and active and productive. He rebounds, he pushes the ball, he can defend. He strikes me as the kind of guy that will just get better and better in the league. And again, we have another guy who comes from the (basketball) background, with the dad. He’s been around this stuff.
Western Conference scout No. 1: He’s small. Like, 6-2 and a half. Really long, athletic. Better offensive player than we’ve given him credit for. He kind of proved that a little bit this year.
You don’t want to trust the shot, because it’s kind of funky, but he makes enough of them. He can really f—ing guard. He passes it well enough; he can make some pick and roll finds. And this motherf—er can rebound. I like him some. He’s got that blue collar ‘it’ factor s—, like his teammates will love him. You know who he’s like? He’s like Kyle Lowry. … He went into this year not on anyone’s draft board, and now he’s going first round.
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played Providence): After Bryce (Hopkins) got hurt, he took his usage to another level, by default. They lacked scoring, and (Josh) Odoro was a five man. … I thought Devin Carter was the best player on the floor, and it wasn’t close. His ability to shoot at NBA range — now, he has that funky jump shot, it looks kind of funky — but he shoots it with deep range.
Big time, big time athlete. Incredible motor. One of those guys, the way he looks, with his hair, he looks like he’s exhausted. He always looks like he’s going. But he never stops. He competes at both ends. … he was probably one of my favorite players this year in the league, because he played both ends, incredibly hard. He made tough shots, and deep shots, and finished at the rim, and played in transition.
College assistant coach No. 2 (his team played Providence): I love him because, to me, I’m an old-school guy. He has literally done it the right way, through hard work. He’s grinded, and made himself into a pro. He just wills himself into being a player. He’s really got it through the mud. He’s worked on his shot. He’s the ultimate competitor. …
Even if he didn’t work his way into the lottery, he would be one of those guys that got into a camp and make it anyway, because he’d outwork everybody. His shot’s not perfect form, but he’s made himself this year, again, into a 3-point shooter. He’s shooting logo 3s. It doesn’t look pretty, but he makes them. Defends at a high level. I love him. Everyone was talking about Bryce Hopkins, and I love Bryce. But I said Devin Carter is the heart and soul of that team. Unfortunately, Bryce got hurt, and Devin was allowed to flourish even more.
College assistant coach No. 1: I wouldn’t be surprised, if you told me he was a top-five pick, I’d be like, yeah, makes sense, somebody should take him. And he has the pedigree, growing up around the league. He probably understands that world better than the average college kid, probably seen it, probably been in gyms with pros growing up, just by default, being around his dad. I’d imagine he’s well-equipped from a perspective and a mentality standpoint to take this next step as well.
College assistant coach No. 2: I really don’t think his size defensively is going to hurt him. He’s an elite athlete. On a scale from 1 to 10 with toughness, he’s like a 9.9. I don’t think it’s going to come into play as much, because of all the other things that he does. Is he going to have to play some point? Probably. Is he guarding those 6-8 wing guys, Jayson Tatum kind of dudes? Probably not.
This year, he handled the ball a lot more. Kim (English) put him in ball screens. He has a good IQ, because he’s been around it, because of his dad. He’s a mature dude. You can have man conversations with him. He’s ain’t a little kid. He was working out with Dwyane Wade and all them guys. So he’s been around it.
Jared McCain | 6-2 guard | 20 years old | Duke
College head coach No. 2 (his team played Duke): He was a dog, man. He brought a toughness to their team. He can really, really shoot. And he knows how to play. He looks like he loves to play basketball, like there’s a joy there. There’s a competitive spirit. He’s not afraid. He’s really physical. I thought he took pride in trying to guard. He was the guard in our league that I was probably most impressed with. I thought he was (Duke’s) best pro prospect. …
They didn’t do ball screens with him as much. They ran him off of pindowns. He would get lost in transition, and when you were doubling Flip (center Kyle Filipowski), he can really shoot. He gets it off quick. And he knows he can shoot, so now he can attack the closeouts.
I thought he had really good strive. He can drive and bump you off to create space. His strength and physicality, it really showed on defense. He can really pressure you when he wanted to get after you. And he had the physicality where it’s hard to knock him off. That dude, man, is competitive. He played with an edge, but also a joy. He was like, I’m here, but I’m gonna smile, I’m gonna have fun.
College assistant coach No. 4 (his team played Duke): He’s really competitive. You know who he is? He’s the other Curry (Seth). More in that mode. But takes and makes big shots.
College assistant coach No. 5 (his team played Duke): Impressive. A lot of guys make shots when it don’t matter. He makes shots when it matters. It was my scout. He’s just a shot maker. In today’s NBA, I’m not sure, right now, if he puts it on the floor well enough to build a team around. But watching teams, right now, most teams have two stars, and you need somebody surrounding them making shots. With these great playmakers you’ve got, you need someone making shots. I think he can make an immediate impact. He did in high school. People doubted him. And he came to college and he did the exact same thing. And it’s not like he’s small. To be the best shotmaker, on a team that won the ACC? He’s a scorer.
As good as the guards (in the ACC) are, I know from myself, and talking to the other coaches in the league, he’s at the top of the scout list. He’s the NBA guy on that team. Everyone else, you had to live with one-on-one shots with their guards. … But he can take over a game. He makes four or five in a row. It’s a tie game, and before you know it, you’re down 10, 15.
I didn’t think Jalen Williams could (initiate offense). But Jalen Williams does a pretty good job, when Shai (Gilgeous-Alexander)’s not getting going, of being able to initiate the offense and make shots. (McCain’s)’s not a point guard, like Jalen Williams is not a point guard. But if you ask him to do that, yeah. I think he could develop into a poor man’s (Tyler) Herro. He’s not as crafty making shots. He’s not as crafty getting everybody else shots. But he can shoot it. And Herro developed into getting everybody else shots down the road. When he came in, it was about how do I get my shot?
College head coach No. 3 (his team played Duke): He can really shoot the ball. I thought that was the biggest thing with him. He can really defend. For me, maybe it was just against us, because when I watched against other people it was there. They say he can facilitate. I didn’t see that. I didn’t see no point guard. I saw an undersized two guard.
Well, let me say this — a positionless player, that if he plays with the right team, he’s capable of making shots, able to attack poor closeouts. Maybe in the Duke system, he wasn’t allowed to do as much dribbling. They obviously had (Jeremy) Roach and they had those guys, so it wasn’t like he was going to be the number one option. So I don’t want to take that away from him.
The thing that stuck out to me was the way he can shoot the damn ball. In transition, he was really good. I thought he did a good job of sprinting to space and attacking closeouts. And defensively, I thought he did a great job. He was good on the ball and off the ball. As we like to say, I don’t think he’s running from no competition. He came from California and went to Duke. Taking Cherokee Parks out of the equation, we’d be hard-pressed to think of the last California kid who went to Duke and had success.
Best of the next
Serbian guard Nikola Topić was a potential top-five pick before suffering a partial ACL tear in the Adriatic League playoffs. It was his second injury to that knee this past year; he injured it previously in January at the start of his stint with top team Red Star Belgrade. At 6-6, with detailed passing and ballhandling skills, Topić looks the part of an NBA point guard — with one big exception: the 18-year-old has never shot the ball consistently well from 3 at any level yet.
Pittsburgh’s Bub Carrington has a lot of supporters on both the college and pro sides, and has been steadily moving up potential draft boards for weeks. Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham is a blur with the ball, and is pegged by many teams as the latest Kentucky guard from now-former Wildcats coach John Calipari’s program to excel in the pros. But, weighing in at 164 pounds at the combine, Dillingham’s Iversonian build gives some teams pause.
Baylor’s Ja’Kobe Walter was Big 12 Freshman of the Year and comes from a program where not playing defense isn’t an option. But he’ll probably have to bulk up some to handle the pounding he’ll get in the NBA as a two guard/wing.
Illinois’ Terrence Shannon, Jr., had a much more serious issue: he had been charged with rape in connection with an alleged incident in September 2023, at a bar in Lawrence, Kan. Shannon vociferously denied touching the woman. Illinois suspended him indefinitely after the incident was disclosed, but he only missed six games before returning to the team after being granted a temporary restraining order. The university dropped its investigation of Shannon in April. And earlier this month, a Kansas jury deliberated 90 minutes before acquitting Shannon on both charges, allowing teams that had red-flagged him while his case was being adjudicated to put him back on their boards.
Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda
Eastern Conference executive No. 4: He was having a great season. He had the knee injury. But, while having that great season, he was a European player who played with a very high IQ. Had the ball in his hands. Was a downhill guard that finishes in traffic, and was crafty and heady. But he wasn’t shooting the ball well. I’m trying to think of how Europeans of have succeeded, of late, that couldn’t shoot the 3.
I don’t want to call him a non-shooter, but was like more trending toward not shooting well. Everybody is going to defend him and say, “Look at the free throw percentage.” I’ve watched this kid for a while. He doesn’t shoot the 3 at a high rate. … But, he’s a big guard. He’s very heady. He has a knack for finishing at the rim off of different feet, different hands. Can play through contact. Draws fouls at a high rate, makes free throws.
I’m not discounting him. Again, top five for a European guard that doesn’t shoot the ball? That’s tough. You go in an NBA locker room, and you’re the guy from Europe, and then we get on the floor and you can’t shoot? They’re going to be like, “I thought that’s what they brought you here for”
And “can’t shoot” is a little harsh. But he trends more toward, he’s an offensive prober. He shoots the jumper as a last ditch (resort). He’s a guy that puts it on the deck, and he probes, and gets downhill, and will create body contact and finish. He’s a great finisher. And he’s really smart in terms of letting offense run, and picking out moments when to dart to the basket, and cut. He’s a smart player. It’s just that the shooting, there’s something to be desired.
Eastern Conference scout: I don’t know that he’s injury-prone; he just has this injury. He’s interesting. Great size, can pass, improved shooter.
Western Conference executive No. 1: The medical we’ve gotten is, they don’t seem that concerned. They think it’s good stuff. It seems like it’s just a kindling with this. This doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a chronic thing. It isn’t like he went to UNC, and you know their medical staff. He’s playing in Europe, and he’s out of sight, out of mind. He’s represented by one of the most powerful agents in Europe (Miško Ražnatović), and Miško has been able to manipulate what he needs. …
If he starts dropping, it’s not because of his size, his age, and his skill; it’s going to be because of something else, and that’s going to be the knee. But it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a wildfire, where this is legitimately a concern. Right now, when we break him down, how can we add a non-shooter to what we have? You put so much pressure on your player development area — guys, we have to make him to be a respectable shooter. And what that means is, 38 percent, 39 percent from 3. And he’s never done that in his career. But, you guys have to make him that. You can love his size and you love his passing ability and you can love his basketball IQ, but at the end of the day, in the league, you have to be able to make a shot.
Bub Carrington | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | Pittsburgh
College assistant coach No. 4 (his team played Pitt): I love him. I know him well. Recruited him a little bit. Works his *** off. Gotten taller. Not the best athlete, but the skill set — ballhandling, shooting. I bet some of that athleticism, quick-twitch stuff improves. And he’s young for his grade. Grew late. Dad had a plan. He wasn’t sending him to anybody; he was going to send him to good people. But the kid can play. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a good comp for him, and Nickeil was (17th, in 2019). That kind of big guard, can play both positions, shoots the 3.
Western Conference scout No. 1: Not a great athlete, but he has size. He’s 18 years old. Can dribble, pass. He shoots it will enough. People think he doesn’t shoot well enough. I do. He’s going to get better. He’s got a feel. He cuts hard. Someone’s going to get a good player.
College assistant coach No. 5 (his team played Pitt): Long, makes shots, tough. Just a prototypical NBA guard. Can come off the ball screen, got the floater. Can defend. But more than anything, he’s got that ball-to-ball toughness. He’s tough. The right team, that’s used to big guards, he’s going to have a long career in the NBA. Other than McCain, who’s been doing this longer, I don’t see them having a different career when it’s all said and done. What they do right away may be different, but down the road, you may be talking about similar players. And Bub can play some point, too. He’s the one that can definitely bring it up the floor and do all that.
College head coach No. 3 (his team played Pitt): To me, he’s somebody who (you) can conjecture, people will say down the line that he’s one of the best players to come out of this draft. His upside is tremendous. And his body of work, in a short period of time, he put in work. He’s versatile. He can make shots. I think his versatility as a guard will be seen as he goes along.
I like him. I think he’s got a shot. And, he’s young. He’s a good player. I thought he was one of the best players in the conference as a freshman. To me, he was a seasoned offensive player. He can play with it and without it. He can play in ball screens, he can get DHO, make the play. He made good reads. And he’s got good size.
He hit a lull, I think, early ACC. But he made up for that. He had a good disposition as well. It isn’t easy to come as a freshman from day one. He wasn’t highly recruited. That meant he had some good coaching, and you can tell by the way he plays. He plays the right way. He was seasoned. That s— means something to me. It wasn’t just about scoring the ball; he was filling the whole stat sheet. As he gets stronger, he’ll get better (defensively).
College head coach No. 4 (his team played Pitt): The thing that was really impressive about Bub, to me, was he can go get his own shot. It wasn’t like he had to have his feet set, catch and make a shot. He can get it off the dribble. I mean, he can shoot it off the catch. The most impressive thing for me was his size, and his ability to create a shot off the dribble. In that league, that’s probably paramount, right; having guys that can create and make shots.
And, he’s young. I know the NBA is all caught up in that. I like Bub. Not a great athlete, but good enough. Not a high flier. But just an old-school, East Coast, Baltimore, tough-*** guard. I think he passes it OK. For Jeff (Capel) and their team, it was about scoring. I saw him in high school, and I didn’t envision him having that kind of impact as a freshman. I think he’s a tough kid. So I’m not surprised he’s a first-round pick.
Rob Dillingham | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
Eastern Conference executive No. 3: He’s kind of like the Tyrese Maxey of this draft. ‘Cause if you look at his Kentucky numbers, his stats are way better than Maxey’s were coming out of Kentucky. Guys like that, in that combo box, that can score, they stay around. And that’s what they do — they score. Dillingham is 6-1, 6-2. When everybody kept saying he’s little, I was saying ‘he ain’t Isiah Thomas little, or Nate Robinson little.’ They’re like, ‘I worry about his size.’ I’m like, he’s probably bigger than f—— Maxey. When he came out, everybody was talking about size, and what position can he play. When a guy can hoop, let him hoop and put him out there and leave him alone. That’s Dillingham. Let’s not overthink it too much. He’s got short arms, so he doesn’t look tall.
Western Conference executive No. 1: When he’s on the floor, he has the free pass card. You’re not putting him in the corner and watching him stand. He has the ball, and he is doing his thing. And if he has it going, you’re letting him get loose. And he may not have it that night where he doesn’t and then he’s sitting. But he changes the speed, the offensive flow. Cat-quick. You let him do his thing. Dillingham is going to become a crowd favorite for whatever team he plays for, because he’s just electric. He’s going to have his jersey sell out with kids, because (they’ll think) ‘I can be like him.’
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: As we say, he’s a bucket getter. He knows how to create off the dribble with his game, where he can get to spots, even though he’s very thin and not very strong. But he can get to his spots and get his shot off. He may struggle early with getting to the basket. More of what you call a scoring point than a true point. He would be, whereas Reed could be a starter, Robert may be more valuable as a sixth man. That’s not to say he can’t start. But his importance to a team may be more coming off the bench. When Maxey came out, Cal had him at more of a two than the point. Maxey played (point guard) in high school, whereas this guy was a scorer with the ball in his hands. Defensively, he’s going to struggle to stay in front of people. He was in foul trouble a lot this season, because he was out of position, or he was reaching to steal the ball. I don’t see that changing in the NBA until he gets the defensive discipline to keep his hands in front of him.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: You’re going to think I’m crazy, but Dillingham scares me. He’s an explosive scorer, and he’s tough. But he’s the worst defender. And he does not have a great feel as a point guard. Those kind of guys scare me. It may work out, but he’s a bad defensive player. He’s small and doesn’t defend. Look at Bones Hyland, who I like. Very good on offense. He struggled in Denver because he couldn’t defend. Gets to L.A. (with the Clippers), same thing. With NBA coaches, if you can’t defend, it’s hard to get on the floor. (Dillingham) is an elite scorer. I’ll give him that. And he’s tough as nails. It’s not that I hate him. But they’re talking about top 10. I wouldn’t do it.
College head coach No. 1 (his coach played Kentucky): Explosive speed and quickness. Unlimited range. Can shoot you out of games or shoot you back into games. Has good offensive basketball IQ with his passing ability. Needs to add weight and get stronger. Very slight and will get pushed around.
Ja’Kobe Walter | 6-4 SG/SF | 19 years old | Baylor
Eastern Conference scout: I think he’s going to be really good. He’s going to be a good value pick in the teens.
College assistant coach No. 7 (his team played Baylor): Not as high on him as others. We pressure the ball, and to me, he’s not great with the ball in his hands, creating for himself. He can really stretch the floor, shoot it on the move, great size, and he competed defensively, especially for a freshman. He was locked in, even if he was missing shots. The one thing he has to continue to develop is he has to be able to put the ball on the floor at some point, a couple of dribbles. I know there’s specialized situations for the NBA, where he can just be a 3 and D guy, which I’m sure his projection is. He can really shoot it and do all that. But I did think the physicality bothered him a little bit. When he played us, when he wasn’t about to just be free in space, it was like, okay, these are big boys, here. But obviously a first-round talent. The size, strength, athleticism, shot-making, it’s just hard to find.
Western Conference scout No. 2: His best basketball is ahead of him. He needs player development. He can be a good player in the league, especially if he wants to be. Sometimes he’ll defend and you say, ‘Damn.’ And then sometimes he slides (and doesn’t). But all of these young dudes are like that. You have to tell them what you want. He got it off the bounce pretty well in high school and this year. He was running a system (at Baylor), but when he needed to, he got it off the dribble. That’s something he has to get better at at the next level, because they’re bigger, stronger, and just as athletic. So all of that is gonna come. What’s going to happen is at Summer League, you’re going to get a good test. Then he’s going to see ‘that’s what I need to work on.’ And he’s doing it at the agent workouts. Everybody picks up the shooting once they get in the building. Take Lu Dort. They killed him in college: ‘Yeah, he can defend, but he can’t shoot.’ I said once he gets in the building, he gets his first check, he’s gonna see how much money he got, he’s gonna be like, oh, s—, let me come back the next day and start (shooting).’ Now he’s an $85 million player. And just a couple of years ago, he couldn’t shoot. If they love the game, the shooting is gonna come.
Terrence Shannon Jr. | 6-6 SG/SF | 23 years old | Illinois
Western Conference executive No. 1: Initially, a nice rotational piece every night in the regular season. He’s going to get buckets. There’s going to be some nights where you scratch your head and say ‘Did he just shoot that?’ And then there’s going to be other nights when he goes for 25, 28, and you’re like, wow. He’s a man. He should be able to step in next year, because he can compete athletically, he can compete physically. And, when he wants to defend, he can. Offensively, he can go get it. I truly believe he will be, at this time next year, in the conversation for First Team All-Rookie. At worst, second team. In most cases, he will be drafted by a pretty good team. I think he’s going to be late teens at best, 20s and worst. And those are playoff teams. They have guys that know how to play. Their roles are already defined.
Is it going to take a while? Yes. But he knows the landscape of what’s in front of him. He is not a consistent defender. His role at Illinois the past two years has been, it’s fallen on his shoulders to do so much scoring, and creating offensively. But when he wanted to lock in, he can get into guys. He can get into people. Is he a Herb Jones? No. Herb is an every possession guy. Terrence, there’s going to be some times when there’s some mental lapses. But then usually, he’s going to make it up for you and will get it back with a steal three or four possessions later.
College assistant coach No. 6 (his team played Illinois): He is a good player. Really good player. He’s the best player in college that I saw last year driving the ball in transition. It’s like LeBron in his heyday — those Miami days where he would just drive the ball as hard as he could, and run right into you. That’s what Shannon did. We’d have two guys standing there, locked arms, and he would run right into you. He’s a decent 3-point shooter. I question his character a little. They say he’s a hard worker, though. He prides himself, (Illinois coach) Brad Underwood swears he’s one of the best defenders in the country. But he played us and he could not wait for somebody to come up and set a screen so he could switch. But the kid is fearless. He’s got an incredible, athletic body. And he can run. He is a very, very talented player.
College Assistant coach No. 3 (his team played Illinois): Love him. He’s one of the guys that, he has gotten better since he’s transferred to Illinois from Texas Tech. He’s definitely been in the gym working on his game. Tough, competitor. Shot has gotten a lot better. Competes on both ends. Very fast with the ball. What it will look like at the next level, I’m not sure. He has good positional size, and he’s just tough and he competes. He’s a better player than (Cam) Christie, and I think he’ll be a better pro than Christie as well. … He’s a little older. I liked him as a kid. I didn’t see him as being a guy that was a locker room guy. From what I know, teammates, (and) our guys got along with him. Inner city Chicago. Always a tough kid. I don’t think he had any underlying issues, if that makes sense. I don’t see him as being that type of kid.
Eastern Conference executive No 2: He’s a damn good defender. Shooting is a little sporadic, but it’s gotten better. You talk about tough, now. He’s tough as s—. If he goes to a certain team, I could see him starting next year. He could start for us, probably.
Eastern Conference executive No. 5: As early as late lottery (post-dismissal). His age (23) may be a factor for rebuilding teams.
The Best of the Rest
Southern California’s Isaiah Collier was a projected top-10 pick early in the college season, but his stock slipped as the Trojans stumbled to a 15-18 record despite having high preseason expectations. He led the team in assists per game (4.3) and was second in scoring (16.3). Marquette’s Tyler Kolek had a sensational season, leading the country in assists (7.7) and leading the Golden Eagles to a Sweet 16 berth. Eighteen-year-old A.J. Johnson opted to play overseas for Illawarra in Australia’s National Basketball League after initially committing to go to Texas, and is hoping to follow in the footsteps of LaMelo Ball, who turned a year at Illawarra into getting picked third in the 2020 draft by Charlotte.
Minnesota’s Cam Christie, the younger brother of former Michigan State guard Max Christie, made the Big 10’s all-Freshman team. Houston’s Jamal Shead, a ballhawking pest, was both first team all-Big 12 and the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year, and hopes to be the latest Cougars player to make the NBA out of the Kelvin Sampson program, one of the best in the country.
Isaiah Collier | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | USC
Eastern Conference scout: I think the guy that’s going to be (Tyrese) Maxey, this year’s Cam Whitmore, this year, is Isaiah Collier. I’m betting on what I saw before he went to USC. He just can’t go to a dysfunctional team. It’s like Whitmore. If he goes to a team where there’s guys that are ahead of him, and he has to work his way into it, and he’s not in a dysfunctional program, I think he’s got a chance to be pretty darn good. Especially if he falls like Cam and Maxey (did) to the 20s, or the late teens. Like Whitmore (at Villanova), their team didn’t do well, and there’s not a touchy-feely love story to them. Isaiah’s obviously got a few issues here and there. We all make excuses for the guys we like, and we do the opposite as well. It’s easy to dismiss those guys because of their persona.
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: Football body that he can bully people with. I think Collier is a lot better than he showed this season. His decision making has to improve, because he was throwing some passes he shouldn’t have thrown, getting into the lane, making decisions. He got hurt, also, so that hindered him a little bit. He struggled early because he couldn’t shoot the ball well. You also had Boogie Ellis on that team, who was trying to get his.
Western Conference scout No. 1: If he was at pick 20 or something, he would get my interest a little bit. He gets on the rim. He gets to the basket. Is he a great shooter? No, he’s not. If he was a great shooter, we’d be talking about him in the top five. But he’s talented, and he’s 19. Don’t ask me all these inane, stupid questions. He’s talented. They’ll figure it out. Don’t give me these bums that can’t play. That’s what this is about.
Tyler Kolek | 6-1 guard | 23 years old | Marquette
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played Marquette): Unbelievable worker. I did not know he would turn out like this. I think the stars aligned, getting a guy like Oso (Ighadaro) next to him, and a coach like Shaka (Smart). He’s been incredible.
College assistant coach No. 2 (his team played Marquette): Obviously he’s smart, sees the play before the play. He’s not a great shooter, I don’t care what they say. He’s not a great shooter. But he can run a team. I don’t get the Steve Nash comparisons. But, good player. Tough, one of those tough White guys that can hoop with the brothers all day. He’s just smart. Heady. Not overly athletic. But he’s tough. Good player.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: I’m not as high on him as others. But I see what they see. You can’t count him out. It’s like TJ (McConnell). Nobody thought he’d make the league, and he made the league. And Kolek is the same type of guy. But the difference is, TJ is quick, and Kolek is not quick. I wouldn’t bet against him, but I’m not as high on him.
A.J. Johnson | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Illawarra
Western Conference executive No. 1: I was impressed with the tape that we got. I was really, and it’s such a small sample size. But I thought the way he played in Chicago was pretty darn good for a youngster. He didn’t back down to anybody, and he made plays. Defensively, he is, right now, completely lost. But how many 6-4, 6-5, legitimate point guards, that can make a play, seize it, can deliver it, have some imagination, and are 18, 19 years old? What does this kid look like in three years? If you do it the right way, he on (G League) assignment, he’s in the weight room, he’s with your strength and conditioning, he’s with your dietician. You may have the makings, at worst, of a reliable backup? That’s not a bad swing. If this kid was in college, and he was a freshman, and he went back to school, he’d be one of the top returners in the country. And I doubt you could, in next year’s draft, that you could get him where you can get him in this year’s draft.
Cam Christie | 6-5 SG/SF | 18 years old | Minnesota
College assistant coach No. 6 (his team played Minnesota): What the kid can do is he can elevate on his jump shot and do it off the dribble. Dribble into 3s. … I think his lack of strength is gonna hurt him. Who’s he gonna guard is gonna hurt him. Is the team going to be patient enough? But the kid does have skill. He doesn’t look tough, but he’s tougher than he looks. Great family. His mom played at Northwestern. His Dad played Division II. For one family to have two players, potentially, in the NBA is a hell of a deal. I still don’t know how good Max is. Max is never gonna play for the Lakers, I don’t think. How good is Cam gonna be? Can he be a rotational player? That remains to be seen. He definitely needed another year of school. He was either gonna go in the draft or to a (college) blueblood. But he’s rolling the dice. He probably would have made more money in college than in the second round. Somebody would have given that kid $500,000. Somebody’s gonna take him.
College assistant coach No. 3 (his team played Minnesota): People say it every year, like this is a bad draft. It’s a bad class. There’s always going to be players in every class. Christie, he’s going to be a good player, hopefully. He’s got the tools to be. He’s not ready right now. He’s not ready to be in the league right now. Good shooter, great size. Sneaky athleticism. Doesn’t really guard, but you can say that about all these kids. I don’t know what makes a pro now. The last two years, I’ve seen things I’ve never seen, ever. Lottery picks playing in the G League. Up until a few years ago, lottery picks were expected to be part of a rotation. I think he’s a young kid (will turn 19 in July), actually. Spitting image of his brother, similar player. He’s going to be a good player, but it’s going to take time for him to mature. His body needs to fill out. He comes from a good family.
Jamal Shead | 6-0 guard | 21 years old | Houston
Eastern Conference executive No. 6: Probably the best on-ball defender, perimeter wise, in the draft. Super tough, high character, big-time leader. He’s a little small, and his offense has to improve. It’s hard to play at that size if they don’t have to respect your jump shot. That’s something he has to continue to work on. He would, I guess, get drafted in the second round and he’ll probably, depending on where he goes, play a lot in the G League the first year. At the first game in the combine, he hit some jumpers. He was pretty effective offensively. It showed kind of a glimpse into maybe what he could be. But that’s not who he’s been. So he’s got to get closer to that level. But, defensively, just as a guy on your team, you couldn’t go wrong with him. He’s as solid as they come.
College assistant coach No. 7 (his team played Houston): Absolutely love him. Coach Sampson is just a monster. Those guys are on another level. He’s such a dynamic player, obviously, on both sides on the floor, but probably the best on-ball defender in the draft. He was the one guy we played that you talked more about his defensive effort and defensive impact than offense. … To me, he just elicits winning. He’s going to find a way to make them win the possession. Make them win this, make them win that. Clearly, the best player in our league. We talk about him all the time: ‘That’s what you’re trying to get to.’ I think he’s going to be successful, whether it’s a backup point guard, third-string point guard, whatever it may be. I think he’ll play in the NBA for a while. He shoots it fine, too. It gradually got better. He was such a guy that could just dominate the paint, so he didn’t have to utilize it. But he’d make one out of three, just enough to keep you honorable.
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And still more
Santa Barbara junior guard Ajay Mitchell was a first-team All-Big West selection this past season and was second in the conference in scoring (20 points per game), shooting better than 39 percent on 3s. UConn grad senior Cam Spencer capped off a strong college career in his one season in Storrs, providing a spark for the Huskies as they successfully defended their national championship. Spencer fit right in with a veteran team featuring Castle, center Donovan Clingan and fellow draft hopeful Tristen Newton. Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves shot the lights out his senior season, making almost 45 percent (!) on 3s, was first team All-SEC and averaged 20.2 points per game, the most anyone in John Calipari’s storied history in Lexington ever averaged. Colorado junior KJ Simpson led a very talented Buffalo team in scoring (19.7) and assists (4.9).
Ajay Mitchell | 6-3 guard | 22 years old | UC Santa Barbara
Western Conference scout No. 2: He was really good. I saw him in their tournament. He got hurt in that game. Maybe all 30 (NBA) teams were there, so it was a great night for him to have a breakout game. He was spectacular in the first half, and then he got hurt. … you can tell (he’s smart). Just seeing him in that one game, he’s definitely a kid you can put in an NBA game.
Cam Spencer | 6-3 guard | 24 years old | Connecticut
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played UConn): I thought he was the ultimate kind of glue guy winner that really put the pieces of their puzzle together. Obviously, they were talented. … but his shooting ability, his feel and IQ, his toughness and competitive spirit, he was always jawing, always talking, always kind of revving his guys up. Not afraid to confront his guys. I remember sitting on the bench. We were playing well against them, and he was really getting on their ***. For a new guy, coming into a national championship team, I mean, (Alex) Karaban had been there, Newton had been there, Clingan had been there, and for him to be that demonstrative, kind of grabbing guys by the jersey and all that, I was really impressed by him and his demeanor. He obviously is a talented kid and can really shoot it and all that stuff, but I thought the intangibles and what he brought to their team holistically was incredible.
I don’t know if he’s going to be able to play at that (pro) level, but I’d take him on my team any day of the week. Obviously, he can shoot. … in the NBA, they’ve become so creative at evaluating shooting. Even if you don’t guard incredibly well, if you’re a good shooter, there’s so many ways to hide guys. Every team is trying to mismatch hunt. You saw this with (Tyrese) Haliburton. They were running Haliburton at the ball, double-teaming it, getting the ball out of the best player’s hands, and he’ll stay on that guy so he doesn’t have to be in rotations, and attacked on closeouts. If (Spencer) can give you something conceptually (on defense), because of what he brings on the other side, all the intangibles and obviously the shooting, I think it could work out.
Antonio Reeves | 6-5 | SG/SF | 23 years old | Kentucky
College head coach No. 1 (his team played Kentucky): Can make an NBA roster and stick. Has an incredible scoring knack being able to score the ball at 3 levels. Hit several big shots in clutch situations. Really improved his rebounding during his final year at Kentucky. Can get to the free throw line and draw free throw attempts.
K.J. Simpson | 6-0 guard | 21 years old | Colorado
College assistant coach No. 8 (his team played Colorado): Man, he’s a killer. He’s little, little dude, but dog, he killed the Pac 12. And that’s just about every year. His freshman year, we beat them, and he was crying after the game. He just loves to win. That dude’s a winner. Takes tough shots and make them. He can play. He can pass. He can do it all. He’s just little. We were trying to post him up. He wasn’t playing no defense. But he came back the second half and lit us up. I love him. But you’ve got these bigger guards in the NBA. Size is important.
And … Bronny
Few freshmen who averaged 4.8 points per game in 19 minutes of action per game have garnered as much attention as Bronny James. The son of LeBron James had a terrifying start to his lone season at USC, going into cardiac arrest during summer practice in L.A. and needing surgery to correct a congenital heart defect. Thankfully, Bronny was able to return to play in December, and wound up playing in 25 games. But on a team with Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis, James couldn’t be the force he might have been at another school where he was the focal point. He declared for the draft after the season, and that candidacy was bolstered by a solid performance at the Chicago NBA Draft Combine last month. James has only worked out for the Lakers and Suns, fueling speculation L.A. will take him with the 55th pick overall, late in the second round. No matter the outcome of the draft, hopefully, Bronny James will get the chance to write his own story in the NBA.
Bronny James | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | USC
Western Conference scout No. 1: I like Bronny. I saw him at (the) McDonald’s (All American Game), and I think he played really well. The public forgets the guy had open heart surgery. He was out for, what, seven months, six months? That’s real. He didn’t train, he didn’t lift, he didn’t shoot. Was it life-threatening? I don’t know. But when I hear ‘heart,’ and I know that’s not good. He got way, way behind. And then he did have to play with Collier and Boogie Ellis. So he deferred. To his credit. I saw USC play three times. He plays the right way. He can really pass. He cuts hard. He’s got some of his father’s basketball IQ. He can make open shots. He’s a way better shooter than his dad at the same age. Now, he’s smaller. He’s not an electrical athlete. He’s not broken. I just think he’s a year behind, because he didn’t play. He comes off the bench, he’s just trying to fit in. He took like four shots a game. But there were things that he did that I was like, ‘F—, that’s the right play.’ Like, he, instead of dribbling it up the court, he advanced the ball with the pass. It’s really small and subtle. But it’s the right basketball play. If the pass was to the wing, he would cut. Not, like, jog through. Like, whoa, I get it. And he can pass. I think it’s a mistake (coming out). But I think if he went to school this year and they handed him the ball and he played 34 minutes a night, you’d go, okay, he’s averaging 16 and 6? He’s pretty good.
Western Conference scout No. 2: You know what? He knows how to play basketball. They’ve got him playing two. I think he’s better on the ball, because he plays the right way. And he knows how to pass. The boy will make the right play, every time. I thought he should have gone back for one more year and proved it, because he don’t need the money. Just go back and have fun. But, I think the dad kind of wanted to play with him. (Bronny) made McDonald’s All American. Let’s see. He does know how to play. I think he’s playing the wrong position. At the (Chicago) pre-draft camp, he’s checking twos and threes, and they’re overpowering him. He’s strong enough, but let him guard the ones and play the one. If he was 6-5 (James measured 6-1.5 with a 6-7.25 wingspan in Chicago), we ain’t having this conversation; now he can play the two, and I think he’d be good enough. Because he does know how to play. That’s half of it.
Santa Barbara junior guard Ajay Mitchell was a first-team All-Big West selection this past season and was second in the conference in scoring (20 points per game), shooting better than 39 percent on 3s. UConn grad senior Cam Spencer capped off a strong college career in his one season in Storrs, providing a spark for the Huskies as they successfully defended their national championship. Spencer fit right in with a veteran team featuring Castle, center Donovan Clingan and fellow draft hopeful Tristen Newton. Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves shot the lights out his senior season, making almost 45 percent (!) on 3s, was first team All-SEC and averaged 20.2 points per game, the most anyone in John Calipari’s storied history in Lexington ever averaged. Colorado junior KJ Simpson led a very talented Buffalo team in scoring (19.7) and assists (4.9).
Ajay Mitchell | 6-3 guard | 22 years old | UC Santa Barbara
Western Conference scout No. 2: He was really good. I saw him in their tournament. He got hurt in that game. Maybe all 30 (NBA) teams were there, so it was a great night for him to have a breakout game. He was spectacular in the first half, and then he got hurt. … you can tell (he’s smart). Just seeing him in that one game, he’s definitely a kid you can put in an NBA game.
Cam Spencer | 6-3 guard | 24 years old | Connecticut
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played UConn): I thought he was the ultimate kind of glue guy winner that really put the pieces of their puzzle together. Obviously, they were talented. … but his shooting ability, his feel and IQ, his toughness and competitive spirit, he was always jawing, always talking, always kind of revving his guys up. Not afraid to confront his guys. I remember sitting on the bench. We were playing well against them, and he was really getting on their ***. For a new guy, coming into a national championship team, I mean, (Alex) Karaban had been there, Newton had been there, Clingan had been there, and for him to be that demonstrative, kind of grabbing guys by the jersey and all that, I was really impressed by him and his demeanor. He obviously is a talented kid and can really shoot it and all that stuff, but I thought the intangibles and what he brought to their team holistically was incredible.
I don’t know if he’s going to be able to play at that (pro) level, but I’d take him on my team any day of the week. Obviously, he can shoot. … in the NBA, they’ve become so creative at evaluating shooting. Even if you don’t guard incredibly well, if you’re a good shooter, there’s so many ways to hide guys. Every team is trying to mismatch hunt. You saw this with (Tyrese) Haliburton. They were running Haliburton at the ball, double-teaming it, getting the ball out of the best player’s hands, and he’ll stay on that guy so he doesn’t have to be in rotations, and attacked on closeouts. If (Spencer) can give you something conceptually (on defense), because of what he brings on the other side, all the intangibles and obviously the shooting, I think it could work out.
Antonio Reeves | 6-5 | SG/SF | 23 years old | Kentucky
College head coach No. 1 (his team played Kentucky): Can make an NBA roster and stick. Has an incredible scoring knack being able to score the ball at 3 levels. Hit several big shots in clutch situations. Really improved his rebounding during his final year at Kentucky. Can get to the free throw line and draw free throw attempts.
K.J. Simpson | 6-0 guard | 21 years old | Colorado
College assistant coach No. 8 (his team played Colorado): Man, he’s a killer. He’s little, little dude, but dog, he killed the Pac 12. And that’s just about every year. His freshman year, we beat them, and he was crying after the game. He just loves to win. That dude’s a winner. Takes tough shots and make them. He can play. He can pass. He can do it all. He’s just little. We were trying to post him up. He wasn’t playing no defense. But he came back the second half and lit us up. I love him. But you’ve got these bigger guards in the NBA. Size is important.
And … Bronny
Few freshmen who averaged 4.8 points per game in 19 minutes of action per game have garnered as much attention as Bronny James. The son of LeBron James had a terrifying start to his lone season at USC, going into cardiac arrest during summer practice in L.A. and needing surgery to correct a congenital heart defect. Thankfully, Bronny was able to return to play in December, and wound up playing in 25 games. But on a team with Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis, James couldn’t be the force he might have been at another school where he was the focal point. He declared for the draft after the season, and that candidacy was bolstered by a solid performance at the Chicago NBA Draft Combine last month. James has only worked out for the Lakers and Suns, fueling speculation L.A. will take him with the 55th pick overall, late in the second round. No matter the outcome of the draft, hopefully, Bronny James will get the chance to write his own story in the NBA.
Bronny James | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | USC
Western Conference scout No. 1: I like Bronny. I saw him at (the) McDonald’s (All American Game), and I think he played really well. The public forgets the guy had open heart surgery. He was out for, what, seven months, six months? That’s real. He didn’t train, he didn’t lift, he didn’t shoot. Was it life-threatening? I don’t know. But when I hear ‘heart,’ and I know that’s not good. He got way, way behind. And then he did have to play with Collier and Boogie Ellis. So he deferred. To his credit. I saw USC play three times. He plays the right way. He can really pass. He cuts hard. He’s got some of his father’s basketball IQ. He can make open shots. He’s a way better shooter than his dad at the same age. Now, he’s smaller. He’s not an electrical athlete. He’s not broken. I just think he’s a year behind, because he didn’t play. He comes off the bench, he’s just trying to fit in. He took like four shots a game. But there were things that he did that I was like, ‘F—, that’s the right play.’ Like, he, instead of dribbling it up the court, he advanced the ball with the pass. It’s really small and subtle. But it’s the right basketball play. If the pass was to the wing, he would cut. Not, like, jog through. Like, whoa, I get it. And he can pass. I think it’s a mistake (coming out). But I think if he went to school this year and they handed him the ball and he played 34 minutes a night, you’d go, okay, he’s averaging 16 and 6? He’s pretty good.
Western Conference scout No. 2: You know what? He knows how to play basketball. They’ve got him playing two. I think he’s better on the ball, because he plays the right way. And he knows how to pass. The boy will make the right play, every time. I thought he should have gone back for one more year and proved it, because he don’t need the money. Just go back and have fun. But, I think the dad kind of wanted to play with him. (Bronny) made McDonald’s All American. Let’s see. He does know how to play. I think he’s playing the wrong position. At the (Chicago) pre-draft camp, he’s checking twos and threes, and they’re overpowering him. He’s strong enough, but let him guard the ones and play the one. If he was 6-5 (James measured 6-1.5 with a 6-7.25 wingspan in Chicago), we ain’t having this conversation; now he can play the two, and I think he’d be good enough. Because he does know how to play. That’s half of it.
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Kevin Pelton's updated top 30 prospects. Original list found here: https://niketalk.com/threads/2024-n...ks-might-be-on-the-clock.677543/post-36915208
NBA draft 2024: Pelton's updated top 30 prospects
With the field set for next week's NBA draft after last Sunday's deadline for early entrants to withdraw, it's time for the final version of my stats-based projections for this year's prospects.
These projections are expressly not an attempt to predict where players will be drafted. That's the province of ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo. However, my projections may be more telling for who some teams will draft than others.
Over the past five drafts (2019 to 2023), the three teams that have added the most value on a per-pick basis relative to what we would expect based on where they picked all have ties to the Houston Rockets' front office. Along with Houston, that group includes the Philadelphia 76ers, who hired longtime Rockets executive Daryl Morey in 2020, and the Sacramento Kings, who hired Monte McNair from Houston in 2020 as their lead executive. Those teams rank just ahead of the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz.
Although Morey oversaw only one of those drafts, the Rockets themselves are far and away No. 1 by this measure, getting almost double the expected value of their picks. Houston picked the two players who most exceeded the expectations for their draft spot, Alperen Sengun at No. 16 in 2021 and Cam Whitmore at No. 20 last year.
That makes the Rockets' No. 3 pick especially interesting this season. Depending on how the first two picks go, Houston could have its choice of the top two players in my projections, Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard and UConn center Donovan Clingan. The latest mock draft from Givony and Woo has the Rockets picking Sheppard.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I, the Nike EYBL AAU competition and top professional leagues to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100-prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.
For more on how my projections work and past examples, visit here.
Now, let's get to the top-30 projections along with Dalton Knecht and Bronny James.
1. Reed Sheppard
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 4.2 WARP
Already the top player in my stats-only projections, Sheppard moved atop the consensus model as well, from No. 7 in ESPN's top 100 in April to No. 4 now. Sheppard's projected 39% 3-point shooting as a rookie is the highlight. No other player in this year's draft is projected to shoot better than 37%.
Beyond that, Sheppard's accumulation of steals and blocks also stands out -- particularly relative to his wingspan, measured at 6-foot-3¼ at the draft combine. Yet Sheppard has the best projected steal rate of any player in the top 100 and a better projected block rate than 6-9 post Tristan da Silva. His closest NBA-bound comps in steals and blocks are long-limbed guards Kent Bazemore and Delon Wright.
2. Donovan Clingan
UConn
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Clingan's shot blocking is his standout skill. Just three draft picks in my database had better projected block rates as rookies: Walker Kessler, Mitchell Robinson and Victor Wembanyama. Clingan adds atypically high usage (25% last season for the national champions) for a finisher of his ilk. Among the eight players in my database projected to shoot at least 60%, only Udoka Azubuike had a higher rate, setting Clingan apart from more selective finishers such as Dereck Lively II and Mark Williams.
3. Alexandre Sarr
Perth
C
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Averaging just 17.2 minutes per game in the Australian NBL at age 18 (he turned 19 in April, after the season ended), Sarr rated as one of the top 20 players in the league by virtue of his 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. Sarr ranking third overall is a product of the strong projections for Clingan and Sheppard rather than any slight as a likely top-two pick. His stats-only projection makes him the third player in this year's draft ranked in the top 10 in both components of the consensus model, typically a strong indicator of NBA success.
4. Zach Edey
Purdue
C
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 2.8 WARP
Edey's projection slipped a bit because of his move from No. 14 to No. 16 in the top 100, as well as a tweak to my projections to utilize players' NCAA assist rates via Hoop-Math.com. Edey was assisted on 71% of his made field goals, second highest of any prospect ranked in ESPN's top 80. Edey still projects as a strong offensive player in the NBA thanks to his high efficiency on a massive projected 26% usage rate. The questions are more about the defensive end, where just three draft picks in my database have a lower steal projection than Edey: Alex Len, Doug McDermott and Nick Richards.
5. Johnny Furphy
Kansas
SF
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.5 WARP
Furphy is my top sleeper in this year's draft mainly because of his efficiency as a freshman playing primarily on the perimeter. The Australian wing made 64% of his 2s, 35% of his 3s and 77% at the foul line. As a result, he's got the second-best projected true shooting percentage (.553) of any perimeter player younger than age 21, trailing only Sheppard.
6. Ja'Kobe Walter
Baylor
SG
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Walter's top-10 stats-only ranking is a little tougher to explain because he wasn't an efficient scorer in his lone season at Baylor -- 42% on 2s and 34% on 3s. My model likes his chances of improving as a shooter in the NBA based on high volume from 3 (6.3 attempts per game) and 79% foul shooting. Walter was far more effective on catch-and-shoot opportunities, shooting an effective 55% after accounting for the additional value of 3s.
7. Zaccharie Risacher
Bourg
SF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 55
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Risacher's stats-only projection isn't quite as pessimistic as ranking 55th looks. He's still projected for 0.5 WARP based only on his stats from the French LNB Pro A along with EuroLeague and EuroCup, which are likely selling him short as a shooter. Risacher has shot 41% on 3s during those games, but because the sample is still small (209 attempts, fewer than Walter took in one season at Baylor), he's regressed to a 34% NBA projection. Risacher's form looks legit, and if he's an elite shooter, that opens up the rest of his game. Still, Risacher needs to fill out the box score more than he has in France. His assist rate in particular is weak for a wing. Risacher averaged just 1.6 assists per 36 minutes across competitions this season.
8. Jared McCain
Duke
G
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
After Sheppard, McCain has the next-best shooting projection among any player younger than 22 years old. He shot 41% on nearly six 3-point attempts per game at Duke and a robust 88.5% from the foul line -- better than Sheppard's 83%. McCain is also a strong defensive rebounder for a guard, a positive indicator, though he averaged just 2.4 assists per 40 minutes playing alongside several other ball handlers with the Blue Devils. Having measured 6-2 without shoes at the combine, McCain may need to play more point guard in the NBA.
9. Kyshawn George
Miami
G/F
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Despite averaging a modest 7.6 points per game as a part-time starter in his lone NCAA season, George showcased all the tools necessary to be a 3-and-D wing in the NBA. He hit 41% of his 3s on 7.3 attempts per 40 minutes and recorded steals and blocks at solid rates using a wingspan measured at more than 6-10.
10. Stephon Castle
UConn
G
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Castle looks the part of a do-everything guard who can compensate for limited outside shooting (27% on 3s) with his activity. His steal and block rates were disappointing, with the steal rate being a weakness. On the plus side, Castle shot a solid 54% inside the arc and posted an above-average usage rate as a freshman starter on the national champs. As a result, I like him to beat his stats-only projection.
11. Rob Dillingham
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Since he's gone from No. 4 to No. 8 in the top 100, Dillingham has dropped four spots from our April update. This feels more appropriate for him. Dillingham was an efficient scorer given his high volume as a freshman (30% usage) but may struggle to make an impact defensively at 6-1 barefoot. He blocked just two shots in 746 minutes at Kentucky.
12. Cam Christie
Minnesota
SG
Top 100: No. 33
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
New to the rankings since our April update, Christie quietly had a far better freshman season than his older brother, Max, who was drafted in the 2022 second round by the Los Angeles Lakers. Cam hit 39% of his 3s on more than five attempts per game compared to Max's 32% at Michigan State during the 2021-22 season. Cam also showed better decision-making with an assist-to-turnover rate near two, where his brother's was under one. Cam's projection further benefits from being the youngest NCAA player in the top 100. He won't turn 19 until July.
13. Devin Carter
Providence
G
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
The rare late bloomer who excels in my projections, Carter ranked fourth in box plus-minus last season among players who saw at least 1,000 minutes of action, per Stathead.com. His steal and block rates have always been elite, but Carter became one of the nation's best defensive rebounders from the perimeter last season. He improved to 38% shooting beyond the arc after making just 29% of 3s in his first two years in college.
14. Tidjane Salaun
Cholet
SF
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
The youngest player in this year's draft, Salaun, who turns 19 in August, showed development over the course of his first full season in the French LNB Pro A. While not an efficient shooter over the course of the season -- making 43% of his 2s and 33% of his 3s -- Salaun went 12-of-17 inside the arc in Cholet's three playoff games. (His 1-of-9 foul shooting was less impressive.) Salaun may benefit from spending more time cutting with NBA spacing rather than being used primarily as a spot-up shooter.
15. Carlton Carrington
Pittsburgh
G
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Another player who will be 18 on draft night, Carrington averaged 33.2 MPG as a freshman, second to Notre Dame's Markus Burton among players from major conferences, per Stathead.com. Carrington must improve on 32% 3-point shooting, but he was more accurate on free throws (79%) and posted more than twice as many assists as turnovers.
16. Matas Buzelis
G League Ignite
F
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 49
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Relative to past Ignite prospects, Buzelis' scoring at the G League level was below-average. He used 22% of Ignite's plays, a rate lower than fellow first-round prospects Ron Holland II and Tyler Smith, and wasn't particularly efficient on them with a .522 true shooting percentage that was also weaker than both teammates. He'll have to improve his range after hitting just 26% of his 3s for Ignite. The 6-10 Buzelis did excel as a shot blocker, easily leading Ignite in block rate.
17. Kyle Filipowski
Duke
F/C
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Filipowski's wingspan (6-10½) measured shorter than his barefoot height (6-10¾) at the combine, a rarity for any NBA player but particularly a big man. In the NBA's database, there have been three first-round picks as tall as Filipowski with a so-called "negative" wingspan: Frank Kaminsky, Kelly Olynyk and Mason Plumlee. Like Kaminsky and Olynyk, Filipowski compensates with offensive skill. He made 74 3-pointers over two seasons at Duke and handed out 2.8 assists per game last season.
18. Nikola Topic
Red Star
PG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Among players ranked in ESPN's top 30, only Marquette's Tyler Kolek has a better assist projection than Topic. His finishing ability as a bigger guard also stands out. Topic made 64% of his 2-point attempts this season in Adriatic League play. The issue is when Topic gets further from the basket. He shot 26.5% on 3s, and despite being a highly accurate free throw shooter (86%), his shot tends to flatten out from distance. Additionally, Topic generates few steals and blocks, hurting his projection.
19. Ryan Dunn
Virginia
F
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Defensively, Dunn's ability is close to a lock. He's one of just three draft picks in my database projected to block at least 5% of opponents' 2-point attempts and generate 1.5 steals per 100 plays along with Nerlens Noel and Walker Kessler. To believe in Dunn as a top-20 prospect, however, requires expecting him to either develop an outside shot after making 52.5% of his free throws at Virginia or add enough strength to defend post players at 6-6½ barefoot.
20. Ron Holland II
G League Ignite
SF
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 35
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
As compared to his Ignite teammate Buzelis, Holland projects better based solely on statistical performance. Holland is the superior scorer, is nearly nine months younger and racks up steals in impressive fashion. Only Sheppard has a better steal projection among top-30 players. Still, Holland offered plenty to nitpick, including 24% 3-point shooting and more turnovers than assists. He simply seems to be taking a disproportionate amount of blame for G League Ignite's noncompetitive 2-32 regular-season record.
21. Baylor Scheierman
Creighton
SF
Top 100: No. 27
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
One of the best shooters in the draft, Scheierman led the Big East with 110 3s last season, making them at a 38% clip, slightly below his 39% career accuracy. He also shot 88% from the foul line. For a player of his archetype, Scheierman brings more to the table than just shooting. He was Creighton's leading rebounder and ranked third on the team with 3.9 APG. That helps Scheierman's stats-only projection overcome his age. Scheierman, who turns 24 in September, is the oldest player in the consensus top 30.
22. Jaylen Wells
Washington State
F/G
Top 100: No. 45
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
A juco transfer from Sonoma State, Wells impressed statistically during his lone Division I season by shooting 42% from 3-point range and posting a microscopic turnover rate with fewer than one per 40 minutes. It also helps Wells' projection that he's young for his class and less than four months older than one-and-done prospect George. Of the 10 players most comparable to Wells at the same age in my database, seven were first-round picks and two of the three second-rounders (Allen Crabbe and Svi Mykhailiuk) have carved out long NBA careers.
23. Yves Missi
Baylor
C
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
An archetypal rim-running big, Missi attempted just 14 shots in his lone college season outside the paint, according to CBBAnalytics.com. Missi did plenty of damage near the hoop, shooting 61% while posting the third-best projected offensive rebound rate among top-60 prospects behind Edey and Clingan. He does fall a bit short of past prospects in his ilk such as Dereck Lively II and Mark Williams in terms of shot blocking. Missi rejected 7% of opponent 2-point attempts, only average for an NBA-bound center.
24. Tyler Smith
G League Ignite
F/C
Top 100: No. 32
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The top-rated Ignite prospect by stats, Smith joined Jalen Green and Leonard Miller as the third draft prospect in Ignite history to use plays at an above-average rate with a true shooting percentage better than league average. A capable floor spacer, Smith shot 36% on 3s and 73% at the line. Scouts worry about Smith's defensive potential based on his subpar rebounding and shot blocking.
25. Jalen Bridges
Baylor
SF
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
For a top prospect, Bridges was a notably small part of the Baylor offense, topping out at 12.2 PPG as a fifth-year senior. Among players in the consensus top 40, only the defensive-minded Dunn has a lower projected usage rate. Yet Bridges figures to fit comfortably into an NBA 3-and-D role if he can maintain the improvement he showed by hitting 41% from 3 last season, lifting his career mark to 37%. In addition, Bridges is also a strong offensive rebounder and shot blocker for a wing.
26. Isaiah Collier
USC
PG
Top 100: No. 22
Stats: No. 29
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
After consistently projecting in the lottery much of the season, Collier has seen his spot in the top 100 drop to the point where he's nearly matched his stats-only projection. On the plus side, Collier is a skilled shot creator who was also active generating steals. Collier's 67% accuracy at the foul line, high turnover rate (4.4 per 40 minutes) and limited rebounding presence are all concerns.
27. Justin Edwards
Kentucky
SF
Top 100: No. 39
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Starting with Collier, we've got a series of players who came into this season as top prep prospects but had uneven freshman campaigns. Collier was first in ESPN's recruiting rankings, Edwards third and Cody Williams seventh. Of them, Edwards has the strongest stats-only projection based on the lower replacement level for wings and his strong play on the Nike EYBL AAU circuit. Yet he's fallen the furthest in the top 100, perhaps a case of scouts overcorrecting.
28. Jaylon Tyson
Cal
SF
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Tyson played just 55 minutes as a true freshman at Texas before transferring. After a solid season at Texas Tech, he blossomed into a star at his third school, Cal. It helps Tyson's projection that he is on the younger side for a junior -- a month older than Dunn, a sophomore -- and that he's filled out the stat sheet with production across the board.
29. Kel'el Ware
Indiana
C
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
As a top-10 recruit at Oregon, Ware backed up older draft prospect N'Faly Dante. A transfer to Indiana made Ware a featured player, and he came within a hair of averaging a double-double (15.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG). For an athletic center, Ware brings solid skill, having made 32 3s in two seasons at a 34% clip. It's also impressive that he had nearly as many assists as turnovers.
30. Cody Williams
Colorado
SG
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 51
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Of the top prospects in this group, Williams has the weakest stats-only projection. That's in part because Williams didn't rate as well in the EYBL as Collier -- best among all 2024 prospects based strictly on AAU -- or Edwards, who ranked third in that group behind McCain. Williams also did not rate as well at Colorado, where he shot well on 2s (59%) and 3s (41.5%) but contributed little else in the box score other than an above-average block rate.
35. Dalton Knecht
Tennessee
SF
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 76
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
In addition to the top 30, it's worth digging into this year's most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee.
Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.
There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend.
45. Bronny James
USC
G
Top 100: No. 55
Stats: No. 40
Consensus: 0.5 WARP
It's also worth discussing James. To some degree, he's difficult to project because perimeter players who saw so little action in college in a low-usage rate rarely declare for the draft after their freshmen seasons. The best comps for James in this regard, like Peyton Watson of the Denver Nuggets, are typically bigger. James will have to dramatically improve his shooting to fit a 3-and-D role after hitting 27% from the college line. Still, his projection suggests taking him in the second round will be reasonable if his name was in fact "Charles Stephenson," as James' agent Rich Paul mused to Givony recently.
With the field set for next week's NBA draft after last Sunday's deadline for early entrants to withdraw, it's time for the final version of my stats-based projections for this year's prospects.
These projections are expressly not an attempt to predict where players will be drafted. That's the province of ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo. However, my projections may be more telling for who some teams will draft than others.
Over the past five drafts (2019 to 2023), the three teams that have added the most value on a per-pick basis relative to what we would expect based on where they picked all have ties to the Houston Rockets' front office. Along with Houston, that group includes the Philadelphia 76ers, who hired longtime Rockets executive Daryl Morey in 2020, and the Sacramento Kings, who hired Monte McNair from Houston in 2020 as their lead executive. Those teams rank just ahead of the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz.
Although Morey oversaw only one of those drafts, the Rockets themselves are far and away No. 1 by this measure, getting almost double the expected value of their picks. Houston picked the two players who most exceeded the expectations for their draft spot, Alperen Sengun at No. 16 in 2021 and Cam Whitmore at No. 20 last year.
That makes the Rockets' No. 3 pick especially interesting this season. Depending on how the first two picks go, Houston could have its choice of the top two players in my projections, Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard and UConn center Donovan Clingan. The latest mock draft from Givony and Woo has the Rockets picking Sheppard.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I, the Nike EYBL AAU competition and top professional leagues to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100-prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.
For more on how my projections work and past examples, visit here.
Now, let's get to the top-30 projections along with Dalton Knecht and Bronny James.
1. Reed Sheppard
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 4.2 WARP
Already the top player in my stats-only projections, Sheppard moved atop the consensus model as well, from No. 7 in ESPN's top 100 in April to No. 4 now. Sheppard's projected 39% 3-point shooting as a rookie is the highlight. No other player in this year's draft is projected to shoot better than 37%.
Beyond that, Sheppard's accumulation of steals and blocks also stands out -- particularly relative to his wingspan, measured at 6-foot-3¼ at the draft combine. Yet Sheppard has the best projected steal rate of any player in the top 100 and a better projected block rate than 6-9 post Tristan da Silva. His closest NBA-bound comps in steals and blocks are long-limbed guards Kent Bazemore and Delon Wright.
2. Donovan Clingan
UConn
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Clingan's shot blocking is his standout skill. Just three draft picks in my database had better projected block rates as rookies: Walker Kessler, Mitchell Robinson and Victor Wembanyama. Clingan adds atypically high usage (25% last season for the national champions) for a finisher of his ilk. Among the eight players in my database projected to shoot at least 60%, only Udoka Azubuike had a higher rate, setting Clingan apart from more selective finishers such as Dereck Lively II and Mark Williams.
3. Alexandre Sarr
Perth
C
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Averaging just 17.2 minutes per game in the Australian NBL at age 18 (he turned 19 in April, after the season ended), Sarr rated as one of the top 20 players in the league by virtue of his 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. Sarr ranking third overall is a product of the strong projections for Clingan and Sheppard rather than any slight as a likely top-two pick. His stats-only projection makes him the third player in this year's draft ranked in the top 10 in both components of the consensus model, typically a strong indicator of NBA success.
4. Zach Edey
Purdue
C
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 2.8 WARP
Edey's projection slipped a bit because of his move from No. 14 to No. 16 in the top 100, as well as a tweak to my projections to utilize players' NCAA assist rates via Hoop-Math.com. Edey was assisted on 71% of his made field goals, second highest of any prospect ranked in ESPN's top 80. Edey still projects as a strong offensive player in the NBA thanks to his high efficiency on a massive projected 26% usage rate. The questions are more about the defensive end, where just three draft picks in my database have a lower steal projection than Edey: Alex Len, Doug McDermott and Nick Richards.
5. Johnny Furphy
Kansas
SF
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.5 WARP
Furphy is my top sleeper in this year's draft mainly because of his efficiency as a freshman playing primarily on the perimeter. The Australian wing made 64% of his 2s, 35% of his 3s and 77% at the foul line. As a result, he's got the second-best projected true shooting percentage (.553) of any perimeter player younger than age 21, trailing only Sheppard.
6. Ja'Kobe Walter
Baylor
SG
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Walter's top-10 stats-only ranking is a little tougher to explain because he wasn't an efficient scorer in his lone season at Baylor -- 42% on 2s and 34% on 3s. My model likes his chances of improving as a shooter in the NBA based on high volume from 3 (6.3 attempts per game) and 79% foul shooting. Walter was far more effective on catch-and-shoot opportunities, shooting an effective 55% after accounting for the additional value of 3s.
7. Zaccharie Risacher
Bourg
SF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 55
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Risacher's stats-only projection isn't quite as pessimistic as ranking 55th looks. He's still projected for 0.5 WARP based only on his stats from the French LNB Pro A along with EuroLeague and EuroCup, which are likely selling him short as a shooter. Risacher has shot 41% on 3s during those games, but because the sample is still small (209 attempts, fewer than Walter took in one season at Baylor), he's regressed to a 34% NBA projection. Risacher's form looks legit, and if he's an elite shooter, that opens up the rest of his game. Still, Risacher needs to fill out the box score more than he has in France. His assist rate in particular is weak for a wing. Risacher averaged just 1.6 assists per 36 minutes across competitions this season.
8. Jared McCain
Duke
G
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
After Sheppard, McCain has the next-best shooting projection among any player younger than 22 years old. He shot 41% on nearly six 3-point attempts per game at Duke and a robust 88.5% from the foul line -- better than Sheppard's 83%. McCain is also a strong defensive rebounder for a guard, a positive indicator, though he averaged just 2.4 assists per 40 minutes playing alongside several other ball handlers with the Blue Devils. Having measured 6-2 without shoes at the combine, McCain may need to play more point guard in the NBA.
9. Kyshawn George
Miami
G/F
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Despite averaging a modest 7.6 points per game as a part-time starter in his lone NCAA season, George showcased all the tools necessary to be a 3-and-D wing in the NBA. He hit 41% of his 3s on 7.3 attempts per 40 minutes and recorded steals and blocks at solid rates using a wingspan measured at more than 6-10.
10. Stephon Castle
UConn
G
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Castle looks the part of a do-everything guard who can compensate for limited outside shooting (27% on 3s) with his activity. His steal and block rates were disappointing, with the steal rate being a weakness. On the plus side, Castle shot a solid 54% inside the arc and posted an above-average usage rate as a freshman starter on the national champs. As a result, I like him to beat his stats-only projection.
11. Rob Dillingham
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Since he's gone from No. 4 to No. 8 in the top 100, Dillingham has dropped four spots from our April update. This feels more appropriate for him. Dillingham was an efficient scorer given his high volume as a freshman (30% usage) but may struggle to make an impact defensively at 6-1 barefoot. He blocked just two shots in 746 minutes at Kentucky.
12. Cam Christie
Minnesota
SG
Top 100: No. 33
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
New to the rankings since our April update, Christie quietly had a far better freshman season than his older brother, Max, who was drafted in the 2022 second round by the Los Angeles Lakers. Cam hit 39% of his 3s on more than five attempts per game compared to Max's 32% at Michigan State during the 2021-22 season. Cam also showed better decision-making with an assist-to-turnover rate near two, where his brother's was under one. Cam's projection further benefits from being the youngest NCAA player in the top 100. He won't turn 19 until July.
13. Devin Carter
Providence
G
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
The rare late bloomer who excels in my projections, Carter ranked fourth in box plus-minus last season among players who saw at least 1,000 minutes of action, per Stathead.com. His steal and block rates have always been elite, but Carter became one of the nation's best defensive rebounders from the perimeter last season. He improved to 38% shooting beyond the arc after making just 29% of 3s in his first two years in college.
14. Tidjane Salaun
Cholet
SF
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
The youngest player in this year's draft, Salaun, who turns 19 in August, showed development over the course of his first full season in the French LNB Pro A. While not an efficient shooter over the course of the season -- making 43% of his 2s and 33% of his 3s -- Salaun went 12-of-17 inside the arc in Cholet's three playoff games. (His 1-of-9 foul shooting was less impressive.) Salaun may benefit from spending more time cutting with NBA spacing rather than being used primarily as a spot-up shooter.
15. Carlton Carrington
Pittsburgh
G
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Another player who will be 18 on draft night, Carrington averaged 33.2 MPG as a freshman, second to Notre Dame's Markus Burton among players from major conferences, per Stathead.com. Carrington must improve on 32% 3-point shooting, but he was more accurate on free throws (79%) and posted more than twice as many assists as turnovers.
16. Matas Buzelis
G League Ignite
F
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 49
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Relative to past Ignite prospects, Buzelis' scoring at the G League level was below-average. He used 22% of Ignite's plays, a rate lower than fellow first-round prospects Ron Holland II and Tyler Smith, and wasn't particularly efficient on them with a .522 true shooting percentage that was also weaker than both teammates. He'll have to improve his range after hitting just 26% of his 3s for Ignite. The 6-10 Buzelis did excel as a shot blocker, easily leading Ignite in block rate.
17. Kyle Filipowski
Duke
F/C
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Filipowski's wingspan (6-10½) measured shorter than his barefoot height (6-10¾) at the combine, a rarity for any NBA player but particularly a big man. In the NBA's database, there have been three first-round picks as tall as Filipowski with a so-called "negative" wingspan: Frank Kaminsky, Kelly Olynyk and Mason Plumlee. Like Kaminsky and Olynyk, Filipowski compensates with offensive skill. He made 74 3-pointers over two seasons at Duke and handed out 2.8 assists per game last season.
18. Nikola Topic
Red Star
PG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Among players ranked in ESPN's top 30, only Marquette's Tyler Kolek has a better assist projection than Topic. His finishing ability as a bigger guard also stands out. Topic made 64% of his 2-point attempts this season in Adriatic League play. The issue is when Topic gets further from the basket. He shot 26.5% on 3s, and despite being a highly accurate free throw shooter (86%), his shot tends to flatten out from distance. Additionally, Topic generates few steals and blocks, hurting his projection.
19. Ryan Dunn
Virginia
F
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Defensively, Dunn's ability is close to a lock. He's one of just three draft picks in my database projected to block at least 5% of opponents' 2-point attempts and generate 1.5 steals per 100 plays along with Nerlens Noel and Walker Kessler. To believe in Dunn as a top-20 prospect, however, requires expecting him to either develop an outside shot after making 52.5% of his free throws at Virginia or add enough strength to defend post players at 6-6½ barefoot.
20. Ron Holland II
G League Ignite
SF
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 35
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
As compared to his Ignite teammate Buzelis, Holland projects better based solely on statistical performance. Holland is the superior scorer, is nearly nine months younger and racks up steals in impressive fashion. Only Sheppard has a better steal projection among top-30 players. Still, Holland offered plenty to nitpick, including 24% 3-point shooting and more turnovers than assists. He simply seems to be taking a disproportionate amount of blame for G League Ignite's noncompetitive 2-32 regular-season record.
21. Baylor Scheierman
Creighton
SF
Top 100: No. 27
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
One of the best shooters in the draft, Scheierman led the Big East with 110 3s last season, making them at a 38% clip, slightly below his 39% career accuracy. He also shot 88% from the foul line. For a player of his archetype, Scheierman brings more to the table than just shooting. He was Creighton's leading rebounder and ranked third on the team with 3.9 APG. That helps Scheierman's stats-only projection overcome his age. Scheierman, who turns 24 in September, is the oldest player in the consensus top 30.
22. Jaylen Wells
Washington State
F/G
Top 100: No. 45
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
A juco transfer from Sonoma State, Wells impressed statistically during his lone Division I season by shooting 42% from 3-point range and posting a microscopic turnover rate with fewer than one per 40 minutes. It also helps Wells' projection that he's young for his class and less than four months older than one-and-done prospect George. Of the 10 players most comparable to Wells at the same age in my database, seven were first-round picks and two of the three second-rounders (Allen Crabbe and Svi Mykhailiuk) have carved out long NBA careers.
23. Yves Missi
Baylor
C
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
An archetypal rim-running big, Missi attempted just 14 shots in his lone college season outside the paint, according to CBBAnalytics.com. Missi did plenty of damage near the hoop, shooting 61% while posting the third-best projected offensive rebound rate among top-60 prospects behind Edey and Clingan. He does fall a bit short of past prospects in his ilk such as Dereck Lively II and Mark Williams in terms of shot blocking. Missi rejected 7% of opponent 2-point attempts, only average for an NBA-bound center.
24. Tyler Smith
G League Ignite
F/C
Top 100: No. 32
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The top-rated Ignite prospect by stats, Smith joined Jalen Green and Leonard Miller as the third draft prospect in Ignite history to use plays at an above-average rate with a true shooting percentage better than league average. A capable floor spacer, Smith shot 36% on 3s and 73% at the line. Scouts worry about Smith's defensive potential based on his subpar rebounding and shot blocking.
25. Jalen Bridges
Baylor
SF
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
For a top prospect, Bridges was a notably small part of the Baylor offense, topping out at 12.2 PPG as a fifth-year senior. Among players in the consensus top 40, only the defensive-minded Dunn has a lower projected usage rate. Yet Bridges figures to fit comfortably into an NBA 3-and-D role if he can maintain the improvement he showed by hitting 41% from 3 last season, lifting his career mark to 37%. In addition, Bridges is also a strong offensive rebounder and shot blocker for a wing.
26. Isaiah Collier
USC
PG
Top 100: No. 22
Stats: No. 29
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
After consistently projecting in the lottery much of the season, Collier has seen his spot in the top 100 drop to the point where he's nearly matched his stats-only projection. On the plus side, Collier is a skilled shot creator who was also active generating steals. Collier's 67% accuracy at the foul line, high turnover rate (4.4 per 40 minutes) and limited rebounding presence are all concerns.
27. Justin Edwards
Kentucky
SF
Top 100: No. 39
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Starting with Collier, we've got a series of players who came into this season as top prep prospects but had uneven freshman campaigns. Collier was first in ESPN's recruiting rankings, Edwards third and Cody Williams seventh. Of them, Edwards has the strongest stats-only projection based on the lower replacement level for wings and his strong play on the Nike EYBL AAU circuit. Yet he's fallen the furthest in the top 100, perhaps a case of scouts overcorrecting.
28. Jaylon Tyson
Cal
SF
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Tyson played just 55 minutes as a true freshman at Texas before transferring. After a solid season at Texas Tech, he blossomed into a star at his third school, Cal. It helps Tyson's projection that he is on the younger side for a junior -- a month older than Dunn, a sophomore -- and that he's filled out the stat sheet with production across the board.
29. Kel'el Ware
Indiana
C
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
As a top-10 recruit at Oregon, Ware backed up older draft prospect N'Faly Dante. A transfer to Indiana made Ware a featured player, and he came within a hair of averaging a double-double (15.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG). For an athletic center, Ware brings solid skill, having made 32 3s in two seasons at a 34% clip. It's also impressive that he had nearly as many assists as turnovers.
30. Cody Williams
Colorado
SG
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 51
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Of the top prospects in this group, Williams has the weakest stats-only projection. That's in part because Williams didn't rate as well in the EYBL as Collier -- best among all 2024 prospects based strictly on AAU -- or Edwards, who ranked third in that group behind McCain. Williams also did not rate as well at Colorado, where he shot well on 2s (59%) and 3s (41.5%) but contributed little else in the box score other than an above-average block rate.
35. Dalton Knecht
Tennessee
SF
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 76
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
In addition to the top 30, it's worth digging into this year's most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee.
Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.
There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend.
45. Bronny James
USC
G
Top 100: No. 55
Stats: No. 40
Consensus: 0.5 WARP
It's also worth discussing James. To some degree, he's difficult to project because perimeter players who saw so little action in college in a low-usage rate rarely declare for the draft after their freshmen seasons. The best comps for James in this regard, like Peyton Watson of the Denver Nuggets, are typically bigger. James will have to dramatically improve his shooting to fit a 3-and-D role after hitting 27% from the college line. Still, his projection suggests taking him in the second round will be reasonable if his name was in fact "Charles Stephenson," as James' agent Rich Paul mused to Givony recently.
- 72,825
- 116,947
Think I’m adding Devin Carter and Jared McCain to my list of guys.
- 146,490
- 178,104
- 35,362
- 26,990
Who are some Stephon Castle comps?
Too bad this kid cant shoot, seems like he just uses his strength, but the intangibles are there.
Too bad this kid cant shoot, seems like he just uses his strength, but the intangibles are there.
- 35,362
- 26,990
Also Reed Shephard in the top 5 is crazy. He's not the Herro, Murrays, Bookers of previous Kentucky guards.
Idc about your vertical or catch and shoot ability if you're not a true facilitator at that height.
You want a sure fire starter in the top 5.
Idc about your vertical or catch and shoot ability if you're not a true facilitator at that height.
You want a sure fire starter in the top 5.
- 29,181
- 41,522
He moves like Jaylen Brown and Shai (Athletically) I believe you hope he at minimum ends up being like Iguodala/Joe Johnson
- 35,362
- 26,990
I could see a Warriors Iggy role. Iso Joe was a killer in the mid range.
- 92,339
- 128,070
Hurley threw a Jrue comp.
- 72,825
- 116,947
Secondary ball handler connector. Potentially elite wing/guard defender.
Wouldn’t completely write him off as a bad shooter.
Iggy makes a lot of sense. Feel like he plays like Jalen Williams. Jumper will decide how close he gets to that.
I think he’s the best player in the class. Might not be a multi-time all star or anything like that, but that’s what this class is.
- 92,339
- 128,070
- 92,339
- 128,070
NBA mock draft: Latest intel, predictions for all 58 picks
It's officially 2024 NBA draft week, and the big storyline continues to be what happens with the Atlanta Hawks and which player they will select as their No. 1 pick.
Ahead of the two-day draft, which begins Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET (on ABC, ESPN and ESPN+), Hawks general manager Landry Fields said his initial enthusiasm about landing the top pick has not been diminished as he and his staff have examined options such as two French stars, Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher, along with Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard and UConn center Donovan Clingan.
Trade talks are heating up as different scenarios are being laid out from NBA decision-makers depending on how the draft evolves.
ESPN will be tracking every bit of news and intel until the Hawks go on the clock at the Barclays Center podium Wednesday, with this version of the mock draft undergoing any and all necessary alterations up until draft time, based on our latest intel and any first- or second-round moves up until that hour.
First round
1. Atlanta Hawks
Zaccharie Risacher, SF, Bourg (France) | Age: 19.2
The Hawks continue to signal that they have not yet determined their draft night direction, which makes sense considering the nature of this draft, how even the talent at the top is and trade opportunities that could unfold once they are on the clock.
They simultaneously have decisions to make with players already on their roster, especially Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, who seem destined to part ways in the not-too-distant future. The New Orleans Pelicans loom as a potential destination for one of them, with Brandon Ingram the most attractive and attainable target on the Pels' roster. Jalen Johnson appears to be the only player the Hawks will not consider moving.
Risacher, as he has for much of the pre-draft cycle, continues to hold firm as the choice at No. 1 following a positive workout with Atlanta. The feedback from those who have seen him in the United States is that he is a better passer and does a better job of initiating contact and playing through physicality than is expected with his lean frame.
Donovan Clingan, another favorite of the Hawks' coaching staff, remains in play at No. 1, but he might be a more realistic option if the Hawks trade down a few spots with the San Antonio Spurs, something that might not materialize until the Spurs are on the clock at No. 4.
The Hawks getting back their 2025 unprotected first-rounder from San Antonio would be a huge boon, but it isn't clear whether the Spurs would be willing to pay such a high price, while other great trade opportunities do not appear to have materialized thus far.
NBA teams say the Hawks are indicating they could take Alex Sarr at No. 1, which some speculate might be more an attempt to force the Washington Wizards to trade up. -- Jonathan Givony
2. Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr, PF/C, Perth (Australia) | Age: 19.1
With days to go until the draft, rival teams are viewing Washington as Sarr's likely destination. Sarr still has not worked out for Atlanta at No. 1, although the Hawks have continued to try to bring him in. He is thought to be comfortable coming off the board one spot later, with the Wizards' younger roster offering a clearer path to playing time and an opportunity to grow into an expanded role. It's worth noting that Risacher visited the Wizards over the weekend, meeting team brass and touring the city.
The Wizards have been quiet throughout the pre-draft process. But they had a consistent scouting presence in Perth this season, and they are thought to be keen on Sarr's long-term upside. His availability here remains contingent on there being no surprises at No. 1, but the widely held belief around the league is that Washington is Sarr's floor. Amid a full-scale rebuild, Washington has the runway to be patient with Sarr's development, making it a strong fit for him -- and vice versa -- on paper.
Sarr arguably has the greatest upside available here, with the physical attributes to be a top defender as well as the makings of a useful offensive skill set as a finisher and improving floor spacer. -- Jeremy Woo
3. Houston Rockets (via Nets)
Reed Sheppard, PG/SG, Kentucky | Age: 19.9
This pick has been in trade conversations since the moment the Rockets got it in the draft lottery (14 teams), and it likely will continue to be attainable until NBA commissioner Adam Silver announces the selection at No. 3. Many NBA teams are operating under the assumption it will be moved in their internal mock drafts, but that's difficult to plan for considering how rare these types of trades are from a historical perspective.
The Rockets are clearly in win-now mode and would love to add star power to their roster, with players such as Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Mikal Bridges and Brandon Ingram as well as role players including Brook Lopez and Marcus Smart being some that other teams say the Rockets could have interest in targeting (with some names more far-fetched than others).
Several of the teams rumored to be exploring the cost of moving up in the draft -- for example, the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder -- appear to have interest in selecting Clingan (the No. 3 player on the ESPN Top 100 Big Board), who has not worked out for the Rockets. Clingan getting selected at No. 3 would have a cascading effect, sending the draft in an entirely different direction than the one we have mapped out below.
Should the Rockets stand pat, Sheppard has been the favorite here since draft lottery night. Houston's ownership group traveled to meet with him in Los Angeles fairly early in the process, and he visited the Rockets' facility to make his case as the best shooter in the draft. -- Givony
4. San Antonio Spurs
Stephon Castle, PG/SG, UConn | Age: 19.6
The Spurs got an up-close look at Risacher in a private workout this past weekend, which should help them determine how aggressive they want or need to be in trade talks for moving up to No. 1, where the French wing is currently favored to be drafted. The Spurs have the assets to do so if they want, holding the Hawks' unprotected 2025 and 2027 first-round picks as well as a pick-swap option in 2026 thanks to the Dejounte Murray trade.
The Spurs are telling rival teams they will be taking a best-player-available approach at picks No. 4 and No. 8 despite having backcourt needs and a lack of shooting and playmaking -- areas they'll need to address in due time. Taking a patient approach seems to be San Antonio's strategy for now, as there are plenty of scenarios in which more attractive options become available in the near future.
San Antonio has expressed increasing interest in Clingan as of late, even going as far as interviewing him in recent days to get to know him better. Some think this might be a case of the Spurs signaling to rivals that the No. 4 pick is where they need to get to if they want to draft Clingan, as opposed to real interest in a fascinating twin-towers lineup with the 7-foot-3 UConn champion and 7-foot-5 Victor Wembanyama.
They also brought Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, Matas Buzelis, Dalton Knecht and others in for workouts.
With Risacher and Sheppard off the board in this scenario, Castle appears to be a strong candidate to hear his name called here. -- Givony
5. Detroit Pistons
Matas Buzelis, SF/PF, G League Ignite | Age: 19.6
Rival teams continue to view Buzelis and the Pistons as a likely pairing. He worked out for most of the teams in this range, including the Hawks, Wizards, Spurs and the Charlotte Hornets, but the Pistons haven't worked out many other prospects who are ticketed for the high lottery, other than Clingan and Cody Williams. Point guard Rob Dillingham recently visited but didn't conduct an on-court workout.
The Pistons fired coach Monty Williams last week, putting the onus on the front office, now led by Trajan Langdon, to identify the right fit without a coach in place. Detroit's known interest in Buzelis predated Langdon's hiring, and it remains to be seen what direction he'll take with the roster, but there has been little indication at this point to dissuade from the thought Buzelis will land here.
Buzelis fits Detroit's timeline and positional needs, and he has the size and versatility at forward that Langdon's former group tended to favor (and had success with) during his five years as general manager in New Orleans. -- Woo
6. Charlotte Hornets
Dalton Knecht, SF, Tennessee | Age: 23.1
Knecht's draft range appears increasingly small, with teams in the range of Nos. 4 to 9 all expressing significant interest, except for Detroit at No. 5.
Charlotte has worked out Knecht, and his fit alongside LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller appears to be strong with the perimeter shooting and all-around scoring prowess Knecht offers. If Knecht isn't picked at No. 6, it might be because a player such as Sheppard or Castle (both of whom Charlotte has worked out) becomes available.
Rival teams say they would be surprised to see Knecht fall past both the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio at No. 7 and No. 8, where he also seems to be coveted. Buzelis worked out with Charlotte, as well, along with Ja'Kobe Walter and Cody Williams. -- Givony
7. Portland Trail Blazers
Donovan Clingan, C, UConn | Age: 20.3
Due to the amount of interest in Clingan coming from teams selecting further down in the draft, there's a belief around the league right now that he won't actually make it to Portland's pick at No. 7, which teams view as his floor.
There's trade chatter surrounding both the No. 3 and No. 4 picks, with Houston and San Antonio weighing potential trade-back scenarios. Clingan is considered the likely target for whichever team might move up, if that should occur. He is most frequently connected by rival teams to Memphis, which has a clear need for a player in his mold. Some also have speculated on Oklahoma City, which has the wealth of trade assets to maneuver up the board if it chooses.
In the event there are no trades and Clingan should fall here, the Blazers would presumably be thrilled to land the draft's top rim-protector. -- Woo
8. San Antonio Spurs
Rob Dillingham, PG, Kentucky | Age: 19.4
Dillingham conducted his first visits of the pre-draft process this past week with San Antonio, before moving on to Detroit and also meeting with Utah. An ankle injury he suffered prior to the NBA draft combine prevented him from conducting any competitive workouts for teams.
Dillingham's dynamic ballhandling, playmaking and shot-making prowess could be a natural fit for the Spurs with the creativity he offers in the open court and the pick-and-roll. Pairing him with a veteran mentor guard such as Chris Paul -- whom Dillingham has known from a young age, having played for his grassroots EYBL team (Team CP3) -- could make sense should the Golden State Warriors elect to waive Paul's non-guaranteed contract prior to their June 28 deadline.
Buzelis, Knecht, Williams, Tidjane Salaun and Nikola Topic are said to be other prospects under consideration here. Should the Spurs pass on Dillingham, Utah at No. 10 and the Miami Heat at No. 15 are viewed by teams as strong suitors, but there also could be trade opportunities that arise in the late lottery for the No. 8 prospect on our big board. -- Givony
9. Memphis Grizzlies
Cody Williams, SG/SF, Colorado | Age: 19.5
Williams has a wide array of suitors in the lottery, with every team in the range of Nos. 6 to 12 appearing to have interest. Where Williams actually lands could hang to some extent on trade activity in the top 10, but teams have remained intrigued by his upside, physical profile and flashes of strong play early in the season.
If the Grizzlies keep this pick, Williams would be an intriguing upside swing as the type of bigger, two-way wing their roster presently lacks. He is a late bloomer who will need time to actualize his skill set but could pay dividends over time as a player who was once viewed by some teams as a candidate for No. 1.
The Grizzlies also are said to be exploring opportunities to trade back from this spot, making this an interesting swing pick in the shape of the lottery. Other options for Memphis if it stays at this pick include Topic and Devin Carter. -- Woo
10. Utah Jazz
Nikola Topic, PG, Mega MIS (Adriatic League) | Age: 18.8
Utah is said to be active in trade talks, both with this pick and potentially looking to package the Nos. 29 and 32 picks to move into the late teens. The Jazz are being mentioned with center and point guard prospects and might be open to moving around some, depending on how the draft evolves.
Topic was one of 25 players voted into the draft's green room by NBA teams, which is a good sign for his stock stabilizing in the wake of his ACL tear diagnosis at the draft combine in Treviso, Italy. Topic has been in the U.S. visiting teams, with Portland (Nos. 7 and 14) San Antonio (No.
, Memphis (No. 9), Utah (No. 10) some he had scheduled to meet.
A team picking him will likely need to be comfortable with the idea of a redshirt season next year with long-term thinking in mind, similar to how Chet Holmgren, Joel Embiid, Michael Porter Jr. and Blake Griffin started their NBA careers. Utah might feel a degree of regret for not going more all-in on positioning themselves for draft picks the past two years and could potentially reconsider that strategy at some point.
Drafting Topic and trying to make a run at Cooper Flagg next year might not be the worst idea, something that could prove difficult with an All-Star in Lauri Markkanen in the fold and one of the NBA's best young coaches in Will Hardy. -- Givony
11. Chicago Bulls
Devin Carter, PG/SG, Providence | Age: 22.2
It feels quite possible Carter hears his name called inside the top 10 at this point, with the Spurs, Grizzlies and Jazz all potential landing spots depending on how the board and possible trades shake out.
There also are teams said to be interested in trading up to select Carter, with the understanding that they would need to move into the top 10 to make that happen.
After trading Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey, Chicago has a clear need for a defensive playmaker in the backcourt and could plug Carter directly into that role, making him a natural fit here should he make it this far in the draft. The Bulls are viewed by many teams as Carter's floor.
Other prospects linked to Chicago as possible options include Ron Holland and local product Terrence Shannon Jr. -- Woo
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Rockets)
Tidjane Salaun, PF, Cholet (France) | Age: 18.8
Rival teams are watching Oklahoma City closely, with the Thunder holding copious future draft picks as trade ammunition. Last week's trade of Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso signaled a willingness to upgrade the roster with veteran talent, and this draft could present an opportunity to push more chips in.
The Thunder at this spot have been connected to Salaun, Carlton "Bub" Carrington and Johnny Furphy, all of whom are longer-term prospects who would have plenty of time to develop on this roster. There has been ongoing speculation from other teams that the Thunder could look to move up the board, culling from their collection of assets to target a player they covet inside the top 10.
Salaun has worked out or met with most of the teams in the lottery, as they are intrigued by his impressive physical profile, flashes of shot-making from range and competitiveness. Still 18 years old, it will take him some time to clean up his tendencies and get up to speed, but there's optimism around his future, making him one of the most interesting home run swings in this part of the draft. -- Woo
13. Sacramento Kings
Ron Holland, SF, G League Ignite | Age: 18.9
This pick has been mentioned for some time as being potentially attainable, which makes sense considering the urgency that's likely in place for a Kings team eager to return to the playoffs.
Retaining Malik Monk was a major step in that direction, alleviating the need for them to target a shooter (such as Jared McCain) with this pick, should they keep it, and maybe allowing them to take a flier on a high-upside prospect such as Holland, who was projected to be picked much higher than this before an inefficient season with the G League Ignite damaged his standing.
Older players such as Ja'Kobe Walter, Devin Carter and Johnny Furphy also are said to be getting some consideration with this pick. -- Givony
14. Portland Trail Blazers (via Warriors)
Ja'Kobe Walter, SG/SF, Baylor | Age: 19.7
Walter has worked out for teams all over the lottery but has largely had a quiet pre-draft process. There are other prospects who have generated more substantive buzz inside the top 10 at present, which might push Walter into this next part of the draft.
While not as flashy or creative as some of the other guards in this draft, Walter's shooting ability, defensive length and impressive intangibles have kept his value stable as a likely role player and floor spacer with room to keep improving.
A team such as Portland, which could use a 3-and-D type of player alongside its guards, might find value in him if he falls to No. 14. Should Walter make it outside the lottery, it likely wouldn't be too far, with a number of teams in the teens looking like good fits. -- Woo
15. Miami Heat
Zach Edey, C, Purdue | Age: 22.1
Edey is drawing interest from teams that are drafting in front of and behind Miami, with every squad in the back half of the lottery after San Antonio said to be in the market for a center. Utah, Portland, Sacramento and the Los Angeles Lakers were some of Edey's latest stops on the workout circuit.
His combination of size, power and intensity has been difficult to contain in a workout setting, as there simply aren't many players in this draft equipped to slow him down. One player who worked out against Edey compared the experience to "trying to guard Shaquille O'Neal."
Edey was one of the players voted by NBA teams for an invitation to the green room, but he has decided to instead watch the draft from West Lafayette, Indiana, with his coaches, teammates and family. He is the only player to decline the in-person opportunity. -- Givony
16. Philadelphia 76ers
Jared McCain, PG, Duke | Age: 20.3
The Sixers are known to have conducted only a handful of workouts, possibly the fewest of any team drafting in the first round. That info has caused some speculation that this pick could be on the move, depending on which player falls to No. 16.
Regardless of who is picking, McCain has an easy niche he can fill in the NBA with his scoring versatility, basketball instincts, competitiveness and smarts, making him an attractive option for teams drafting in this range. -- Givony
17. Los Angeles Lakers
Tristan Da Silva, SF/PF, Colorado | Age: 23.1
The Lakers likely will explore the trade market to see what type of veterans they can add to give LeBron James, Anthony Davis and new coach J.J. Redick the best chance of competing this season, with NBA names such as Dejounte Murray and Collin Sexton being batted around by rival teams as possible targets.
Should the Lakers elect to stand pat, picking a plug-and-play wing/forward such as Da Silva would make lots of sense. He has excellent size at 6-foot-10. He made 40% of his 3-pointers. And he brings a strong feel for the game, unselfishness and competitiveness on both ends of the floor.
Da Silva should be ready to play fairly soon for a team that is hoping to take a step forward. Yves Missi, McCain, Holland, Carrington, Shannon and Edey are some of the names rival teams have suggested might be in play here, as well. -- Givony
18. Orlando Magic
Johnny Furphy, SG/SF, Kansas | Age: 19.5
Furphy should come off the board somewhere in this range, offering an appealing combination of physical tools, shooting ability and youth that makes sense as a development addition on most rosters. He has drawn interest from teams selecting higher than this, including Memphis, Chicago, Oklahoma City and Sacramento, but might be more of a trade-back option for those clubs.
The Magic tend to value much of what Furphy supplies, having selected players with positional size, skill and strong intangibles over the past several drafts. Orlando also has been tied to Carrington and Kyshawn George, two other younger prospects who fit those criteria. -- Woo
19. Toronto Raptors (via Pacers)
Kyshawn George, SG/SF, Miami | Age: 20.5
Surrounding primary ballhandler Scottie Barnes with ample floor spacing will likely continue to be a priority for Toronto.
George hit 41% of his 3-pointers last season, and he is intriguing to teams as a 6-foot-8 player with guard skills, fluidity-changing speeds and strong instincts on both ends of the floor. George has significant upside he can tap into with a late-blooming trajectory.
Carrington, Da Silva, Edey, Ryan Dunn, Isaiah Collier are some of the names rival teams have suggested might be in play here, as well. -- Givony
20. Cleveland Cavaliers
Carlton Carrington, PG/SG, Pittsburgh | Age: 18.9
Carrington earned one of the final green room invitations, and he is likely to come off the board somewhere in the top 20, with Oklahoma City, Sacramento and Orlando thought to be among the interested parties.
His impressive and creative flashes as one of college basketball's youngest players along with solid intangibles make him an appealing long-term addition for any team in need of backcourt help. Carrington might come off the board before this, but the Cavaliers, who are in position to select the best talent available, would likely be excited to see him fall to No. 20. -- Woo
21. New Orleans Pelicans (via Bucks)
Yves Missi, C, Baylor | Age: 20.1
New Orleans is said to be aggressive on several fronts, with a decision coming on forward Brandon Ingram as he enters the final year of his contract and with starting center Jonas Valanciunas becoming a free agent. So, they'll need to ponder addressing those two positions, potentially on draft night.
Picking a big man such as Missi makes sense here, as he had no shortage of explosive moments as a freshman at Baylor, highlighting his elite physical tools as well as the potential he can grow into after having only started playing organized basketball at age 16.
Missi would likely fit in well on a roster that could use a player in this mold. -- Givony
22. Phoenix Suns
Ryan Dunn, SF/PF, Virginia | Age: 21.4
Dunn is said to be gaining steam in this range of the draft after a slew of outstanding workouts this month propelled him firmly into the first round. Several teams have said Dunn exceeded expectations with his shooting while also doing some absolutely mesmerizing things defensively in guarding point guards through centers in group settings.
Chicago, Toronto and the New York Knicks are others that rival teams indicate could be high on him.
The Suns might look more to free agency to explore adding a point guard to their roster, with Kris Dunn (not related) one potential option that rival teams expect them to look at. Trading back to resupply their depleted stockpile of assets (especially future picks) is another option the Suns' front office is said to be considering, due to the severely limited mechanics the team has to add talent with the punitive new second-apron rules that go into effect this summer. -- Givony
23. Milwaukee Bucks (via Pelicans)
Kyle Filipowski, PF/C, Duke | Age: 20.6
Filipowski primarily conducted workouts for teams selecting inside the top 20, but he looks to have a wide range of outcomes on draft night, running toward the back of the first round. He worked out for every team in the Nos. 9-to-13 range, but teams selecting in the 20s are also speculating he might be available to them.
His ability to play all over the floor on offense at his size (6-foot-11, 248 pounds) gives him unique appeal, but there are valid questions about his athletic ability and defensive impact, as he doesn't offer much in the way of rim-protection. He figures to be in the mix for every team in need of a big in this range, including the Milwaukee Bucks, who also are viewed as a possible landing spot for Kel'el Ware. -- Woo
24. New York Knicks (via Mavericks)
Isaiah Collier, PG, USC | Age: 19.7
It's not clear which team will be making this pick, as the Knicks will likely have trade opportunities with both the No. 24 and No. 25 picks and could be attracted to the idea of stockpiling future assets to maintain maximum flexibility heading into free agency.
Collier has perhaps the widest draft range of any prospect, starting at around No. 11 with Chicago and extending to the end of the first round. Teams such as Miami, Toronto, Cleveland and New Orleans are taking deep looks. But if no team bites, it's possible Collier slides to this part of the draft or even to Washington or Minnesota at Nos. 26 and 27, which would have been a shocking prediction prior to USC's season when he was considered among the draft's top prospects.
Few prospects share the size, strength, shot-creation prowess, scoring instincts and star power Collier boasts, but he'll have to find the right team willing to live through the growing pains that come with empowering him with significant ballhandling responsibility after his uneven freshman campaign. -- Givony
25. New York Knicks
Terrence Shannon Jr., SG/SF, Illinois | Age: 23.8
In wake of being found not guilty of felony rape and aggravated sexual assault, Shannon appears to have built considerable first-round momentum.
Following the conclusion of his trial, he was able to hold workouts for a range of teams selecting inside the top 20, including the Bulls, Heat, Lakers and Magic, giving him a chance to hear his name called much higher than this depending on how the draft breaks. The Knicks, who tend to value players with his level of toughness and motor, are also viewed as a potential fit for him if he falls.
Rival teams continue to anticipate the Knicks moving one of these draft picks, so another team might be selecting here at No. 25. -- Woo
26. Washington Wizards (via Clippers)
Kel'el Ware, C, Indiana | Age: 20.1
Ware secured one of the final green room invitations, which bodes well for his chances of hearing his name called in the first round, having conducted a wide range of workouts.
The number of teams in the market for bigs should also work in his favor, but there's also a good deal of uncertainty surrounding picks in the 20s at the moment.
Ware could come off the board higher than this, with New Orleans and Milwaukee among the teams in need of help at center. The Wizards will likely be selecting for long-term upside and could view this as strong value if Ware falls to No. 26. -- Woo
27. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tyler Kolek, PG, Marquette | Age: 23.2
Kolek has interest beginning in the late teens and will be a potential fit for any team in need of guard depth, viewed by many scouts as a player that can step in and help right away. Whether he can leapfrog some of the younger guards on the board remains to be seen.
The Timberwolves, who also have the No. 37 pick, have come up as a team that could look to trade around in the draft. Adding Kolek as Minnesota looks to move toward contention would shore up its backcourt depth behind Mike Conley, who turns 37 on Oct. 11. -- Woo
28. Denver Nuggets
DaRon Holmes II, PF/C, Dayton | Age: 21.8
Most NBA teams are operating under the assumption Holmes has received a promise from the Nuggets, as he canceled a half-dozen workouts shortly after the NCAA withdrawal deadline, with several smoking guns pointing in Denver's direction, a scenario that is similar to what we saw play out last year with Jalen Pickett.
Holmes at 6-foot-10 in shoes, has a skill level as a pick-and-roll finishing, floor-spacing big man who can pass and create off the dribble, and it gives him intriguing versatility to tap into on the offensive end. -- Givony
29. Utah Jazz (via Thunder)
Baylor Scheierman, SG/SF, Creighton | Age: 23.7
Multiple teams selecting toward the back of the first round have indicated they don't expect Scheierman to be available when they pick -- he has interest as high as the late teens due to his shooting ability, positional size, and impressive feel for the game.
Utah is one of the teams he worked out for, and the Jazz have the ability to go whichever direction they want, currently holding three selections, including No. 32, as well.
While he didn't earn a green room invitation, he seems likely to come off the board in the 20s or be one of the first names called in the second round. -- Woo
30. Boston Celtics
Pacome Dadiet, SG/SF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany) | Age: 18.9
Dadiet elected to remain in the draft at the NBA's withdrawal deadline, a sign he is receiving positive-enough feedback to feel comfortable with where he might end up being drafted.
Utah and Boston are some of the teams connected with Dadiet at the end of the first round. He also visited Orlando, Miami, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Milwaukee and Brooklyn in his short time in the United States because of his mandatory appearance at the draft combine in Treviso, Italy, in the first week of June.
Dadiet's combination of size (6-9), youth and shot-making prowess gives him an interesting upside to grow into long term, something that could be attractive at this stage of the draft. -- Givony
Second round
31. Toronto Raptors (via Pistons)
Adem Bona, C, UCLA | Age: 21.2
32. Utah Jazz (via Wizards)
Bobi Klintman, SF/PF, Cairns (Australia) | Age: 21.2
33. Milwaukee Bucks (via Trail Blazers)
Jaylon Tyson, SG/SF, California | Age: 21.5
34. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hornets)
Cam Christie, SG, Minnesota | Age: 18.9
35. San Antonio Spurs
Juan Nunez, PG, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany) | Age: 20.0
36. Indiana Pacers (via Raptors)
Tyler Smith, SF/PF, G League Ignite | Age: 19.6
37. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Grizzlies)
A.J. Johnson, SG, Illawarra (Australia) | Age: 19.5
38. New York Knicks (via Jazz)
Kevin McCullar, SF, Kansas | Age: 23.2
39. Memphis Grizzlies (via Nets)
Justin Edwards, SG/SF, Kentucky | Age: 20.5
40. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hawks)
Pelle Larsson, SG, Arizona | Age: 23.3
41. Philadelphia 76ers (via Bulls)
Jonathan Mogbo, PF/C, San Francisco | Age: 22.6
42. Charlotte Hornets (via Rockets)
Jamal Shead, PG, Houston | Age: 21.9
43. Miami Heat
Jaylen Wells, SG/SF, Washington State | Age: 20.8
44. Houston Rockets (via Warriors)
Harrison Ingram, SF/PF, North Carolina | Age: 21.5
45. Sacramento Kings
Ajay Mitchell, PG, UC Santa Barbara | Age: 21.9
46. LA Clippers (via Pacers)
Antonio Reeves, SG/SF, Kentucky | Age: 23.5
47. Orlando Magic
Melvin Ajinca, SG/SF, Saint Quentin (France) | Age: 19.9
48. San Antonio Spurs (via Lakers)
Cam Spencer, SG, UConn | Age: 24.2
49. Indiana Pacers (via Cavaliers)
Nikola Djurisic, SG/SF, Mega MIS (Adriatic League) | Age: 20.3
50. Indiana Pacers (via Pelicans)
Dillon Jones, SF/PF, Weber State | Age: 22.6
51. Washington Wizards (via Suns)
Keshad Johnson, PF, Arizona | Age: 23.0
52. Golden State Warriors (via Bucks)
KJ Simpson, PG, Colorado | Age: 21.8
53. Detroit Pistons (via Knicks)
Jalen Bridges, SF, Baylor | Age: 23.1
54. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks)
Ulrich Chomche, PF/C, NBA Academy Showcase (Africa) | Age: 18.4
55. Los Angeles Lakers (via Clippers)
Bronny James, PG/SG, USC | Age: 19.7
56. Denver Nuggets (via Timberwolves)
Oso Ighodaro, PF/C, Marquette | Age: 21.9
57. Memphis Grizzlies (via Thunder)
Enrique Freeman, PF/C, Akron | Age: 23.8
58. Dallas Mavericks (via Celtics)
Trentyn Flowers, SG/SF, Adelaide (Australia) | Age: 19.2
It's officially 2024 NBA draft week, and the big storyline continues to be what happens with the Atlanta Hawks and which player they will select as their No. 1 pick.
Ahead of the two-day draft, which begins Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET (on ABC, ESPN and ESPN+), Hawks general manager Landry Fields said his initial enthusiasm about landing the top pick has not been diminished as he and his staff have examined options such as two French stars, Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher, along with Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard and UConn center Donovan Clingan.
Trade talks are heating up as different scenarios are being laid out from NBA decision-makers depending on how the draft evolves.
ESPN will be tracking every bit of news and intel until the Hawks go on the clock at the Barclays Center podium Wednesday, with this version of the mock draft undergoing any and all necessary alterations up until draft time, based on our latest intel and any first- or second-round moves up until that hour.
First round
1. Atlanta Hawks
Zaccharie Risacher, SF, Bourg (France) | Age: 19.2
The Hawks continue to signal that they have not yet determined their draft night direction, which makes sense considering the nature of this draft, how even the talent at the top is and trade opportunities that could unfold once they are on the clock.
They simultaneously have decisions to make with players already on their roster, especially Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, who seem destined to part ways in the not-too-distant future. The New Orleans Pelicans loom as a potential destination for one of them, with Brandon Ingram the most attractive and attainable target on the Pels' roster. Jalen Johnson appears to be the only player the Hawks will not consider moving.
Risacher, as he has for much of the pre-draft cycle, continues to hold firm as the choice at No. 1 following a positive workout with Atlanta. The feedback from those who have seen him in the United States is that he is a better passer and does a better job of initiating contact and playing through physicality than is expected with his lean frame.
Donovan Clingan, another favorite of the Hawks' coaching staff, remains in play at No. 1, but he might be a more realistic option if the Hawks trade down a few spots with the San Antonio Spurs, something that might not materialize until the Spurs are on the clock at No. 4.
The Hawks getting back their 2025 unprotected first-rounder from San Antonio would be a huge boon, but it isn't clear whether the Spurs would be willing to pay such a high price, while other great trade opportunities do not appear to have materialized thus far.
NBA teams say the Hawks are indicating they could take Alex Sarr at No. 1, which some speculate might be more an attempt to force the Washington Wizards to trade up. -- Jonathan Givony
2. Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr, PF/C, Perth (Australia) | Age: 19.1
With days to go until the draft, rival teams are viewing Washington as Sarr's likely destination. Sarr still has not worked out for Atlanta at No. 1, although the Hawks have continued to try to bring him in. He is thought to be comfortable coming off the board one spot later, with the Wizards' younger roster offering a clearer path to playing time and an opportunity to grow into an expanded role. It's worth noting that Risacher visited the Wizards over the weekend, meeting team brass and touring the city.
The Wizards have been quiet throughout the pre-draft process. But they had a consistent scouting presence in Perth this season, and they are thought to be keen on Sarr's long-term upside. His availability here remains contingent on there being no surprises at No. 1, but the widely held belief around the league is that Washington is Sarr's floor. Amid a full-scale rebuild, Washington has the runway to be patient with Sarr's development, making it a strong fit for him -- and vice versa -- on paper.
Sarr arguably has the greatest upside available here, with the physical attributes to be a top defender as well as the makings of a useful offensive skill set as a finisher and improving floor spacer. -- Jeremy Woo
3. Houston Rockets (via Nets)
Reed Sheppard, PG/SG, Kentucky | Age: 19.9
This pick has been in trade conversations since the moment the Rockets got it in the draft lottery (14 teams), and it likely will continue to be attainable until NBA commissioner Adam Silver announces the selection at No. 3. Many NBA teams are operating under the assumption it will be moved in their internal mock drafts, but that's difficult to plan for considering how rare these types of trades are from a historical perspective.
The Rockets are clearly in win-now mode and would love to add star power to their roster, with players such as Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Mikal Bridges and Brandon Ingram as well as role players including Brook Lopez and Marcus Smart being some that other teams say the Rockets could have interest in targeting (with some names more far-fetched than others).
Several of the teams rumored to be exploring the cost of moving up in the draft -- for example, the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder -- appear to have interest in selecting Clingan (the No. 3 player on the ESPN Top 100 Big Board), who has not worked out for the Rockets. Clingan getting selected at No. 3 would have a cascading effect, sending the draft in an entirely different direction than the one we have mapped out below.
Should the Rockets stand pat, Sheppard has been the favorite here since draft lottery night. Houston's ownership group traveled to meet with him in Los Angeles fairly early in the process, and he visited the Rockets' facility to make his case as the best shooter in the draft. -- Givony
4. San Antonio Spurs
Stephon Castle, PG/SG, UConn | Age: 19.6
The Spurs got an up-close look at Risacher in a private workout this past weekend, which should help them determine how aggressive they want or need to be in trade talks for moving up to No. 1, where the French wing is currently favored to be drafted. The Spurs have the assets to do so if they want, holding the Hawks' unprotected 2025 and 2027 first-round picks as well as a pick-swap option in 2026 thanks to the Dejounte Murray trade.
The Spurs are telling rival teams they will be taking a best-player-available approach at picks No. 4 and No. 8 despite having backcourt needs and a lack of shooting and playmaking -- areas they'll need to address in due time. Taking a patient approach seems to be San Antonio's strategy for now, as there are plenty of scenarios in which more attractive options become available in the near future.
San Antonio has expressed increasing interest in Clingan as of late, even going as far as interviewing him in recent days to get to know him better. Some think this might be a case of the Spurs signaling to rivals that the No. 4 pick is where they need to get to if they want to draft Clingan, as opposed to real interest in a fascinating twin-towers lineup with the 7-foot-3 UConn champion and 7-foot-5 Victor Wembanyama.
They also brought Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, Matas Buzelis, Dalton Knecht and others in for workouts.
With Risacher and Sheppard off the board in this scenario, Castle appears to be a strong candidate to hear his name called here. -- Givony
5. Detroit Pistons
Matas Buzelis, SF/PF, G League Ignite | Age: 19.6
Rival teams continue to view Buzelis and the Pistons as a likely pairing. He worked out for most of the teams in this range, including the Hawks, Wizards, Spurs and the Charlotte Hornets, but the Pistons haven't worked out many other prospects who are ticketed for the high lottery, other than Clingan and Cody Williams. Point guard Rob Dillingham recently visited but didn't conduct an on-court workout.
The Pistons fired coach Monty Williams last week, putting the onus on the front office, now led by Trajan Langdon, to identify the right fit without a coach in place. Detroit's known interest in Buzelis predated Langdon's hiring, and it remains to be seen what direction he'll take with the roster, but there has been little indication at this point to dissuade from the thought Buzelis will land here.
Buzelis fits Detroit's timeline and positional needs, and he has the size and versatility at forward that Langdon's former group tended to favor (and had success with) during his five years as general manager in New Orleans. -- Woo
6. Charlotte Hornets
Dalton Knecht, SF, Tennessee | Age: 23.1
Knecht's draft range appears increasingly small, with teams in the range of Nos. 4 to 9 all expressing significant interest, except for Detroit at No. 5.
Charlotte has worked out Knecht, and his fit alongside LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller appears to be strong with the perimeter shooting and all-around scoring prowess Knecht offers. If Knecht isn't picked at No. 6, it might be because a player such as Sheppard or Castle (both of whom Charlotte has worked out) becomes available.
Rival teams say they would be surprised to see Knecht fall past both the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio at No. 7 and No. 8, where he also seems to be coveted. Buzelis worked out with Charlotte, as well, along with Ja'Kobe Walter and Cody Williams. -- Givony
7. Portland Trail Blazers
Donovan Clingan, C, UConn | Age: 20.3
Due to the amount of interest in Clingan coming from teams selecting further down in the draft, there's a belief around the league right now that he won't actually make it to Portland's pick at No. 7, which teams view as his floor.
There's trade chatter surrounding both the No. 3 and No. 4 picks, with Houston and San Antonio weighing potential trade-back scenarios. Clingan is considered the likely target for whichever team might move up, if that should occur. He is most frequently connected by rival teams to Memphis, which has a clear need for a player in his mold. Some also have speculated on Oklahoma City, which has the wealth of trade assets to maneuver up the board if it chooses.
In the event there are no trades and Clingan should fall here, the Blazers would presumably be thrilled to land the draft's top rim-protector. -- Woo
8. San Antonio Spurs
Rob Dillingham, PG, Kentucky | Age: 19.4
Dillingham conducted his first visits of the pre-draft process this past week with San Antonio, before moving on to Detroit and also meeting with Utah. An ankle injury he suffered prior to the NBA draft combine prevented him from conducting any competitive workouts for teams.
Dillingham's dynamic ballhandling, playmaking and shot-making prowess could be a natural fit for the Spurs with the creativity he offers in the open court and the pick-and-roll. Pairing him with a veteran mentor guard such as Chris Paul -- whom Dillingham has known from a young age, having played for his grassroots EYBL team (Team CP3) -- could make sense should the Golden State Warriors elect to waive Paul's non-guaranteed contract prior to their June 28 deadline.
Buzelis, Knecht, Williams, Tidjane Salaun and Nikola Topic are said to be other prospects under consideration here. Should the Spurs pass on Dillingham, Utah at No. 10 and the Miami Heat at No. 15 are viewed by teams as strong suitors, but there also could be trade opportunities that arise in the late lottery for the No. 8 prospect on our big board. -- Givony
9. Memphis Grizzlies
Cody Williams, SG/SF, Colorado | Age: 19.5
Williams has a wide array of suitors in the lottery, with every team in the range of Nos. 6 to 12 appearing to have interest. Where Williams actually lands could hang to some extent on trade activity in the top 10, but teams have remained intrigued by his upside, physical profile and flashes of strong play early in the season.
If the Grizzlies keep this pick, Williams would be an intriguing upside swing as the type of bigger, two-way wing their roster presently lacks. He is a late bloomer who will need time to actualize his skill set but could pay dividends over time as a player who was once viewed by some teams as a candidate for No. 1.
The Grizzlies also are said to be exploring opportunities to trade back from this spot, making this an interesting swing pick in the shape of the lottery. Other options for Memphis if it stays at this pick include Topic and Devin Carter. -- Woo
10. Utah Jazz
Nikola Topic, PG, Mega MIS (Adriatic League) | Age: 18.8
Utah is said to be active in trade talks, both with this pick and potentially looking to package the Nos. 29 and 32 picks to move into the late teens. The Jazz are being mentioned with center and point guard prospects and might be open to moving around some, depending on how the draft evolves.
Topic was one of 25 players voted into the draft's green room by NBA teams, which is a good sign for his stock stabilizing in the wake of his ACL tear diagnosis at the draft combine in Treviso, Italy. Topic has been in the U.S. visiting teams, with Portland (Nos. 7 and 14) San Antonio (No.
, Memphis (No. 9), Utah (No. 10) some he had scheduled to meet.A team picking him will likely need to be comfortable with the idea of a redshirt season next year with long-term thinking in mind, similar to how Chet Holmgren, Joel Embiid, Michael Porter Jr. and Blake Griffin started their NBA careers. Utah might feel a degree of regret for not going more all-in on positioning themselves for draft picks the past two years and could potentially reconsider that strategy at some point.
Drafting Topic and trying to make a run at Cooper Flagg next year might not be the worst idea, something that could prove difficult with an All-Star in Lauri Markkanen in the fold and one of the NBA's best young coaches in Will Hardy. -- Givony
11. Chicago Bulls
Devin Carter, PG/SG, Providence | Age: 22.2
It feels quite possible Carter hears his name called inside the top 10 at this point, with the Spurs, Grizzlies and Jazz all potential landing spots depending on how the board and possible trades shake out.
There also are teams said to be interested in trading up to select Carter, with the understanding that they would need to move into the top 10 to make that happen.
After trading Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey, Chicago has a clear need for a defensive playmaker in the backcourt and could plug Carter directly into that role, making him a natural fit here should he make it this far in the draft. The Bulls are viewed by many teams as Carter's floor.
Other prospects linked to Chicago as possible options include Ron Holland and local product Terrence Shannon Jr. -- Woo
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Rockets)
Tidjane Salaun, PF, Cholet (France) | Age: 18.8
Rival teams are watching Oklahoma City closely, with the Thunder holding copious future draft picks as trade ammunition. Last week's trade of Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso signaled a willingness to upgrade the roster with veteran talent, and this draft could present an opportunity to push more chips in.
The Thunder at this spot have been connected to Salaun, Carlton "Bub" Carrington and Johnny Furphy, all of whom are longer-term prospects who would have plenty of time to develop on this roster. There has been ongoing speculation from other teams that the Thunder could look to move up the board, culling from their collection of assets to target a player they covet inside the top 10.
Salaun has worked out or met with most of the teams in the lottery, as they are intrigued by his impressive physical profile, flashes of shot-making from range and competitiveness. Still 18 years old, it will take him some time to clean up his tendencies and get up to speed, but there's optimism around his future, making him one of the most interesting home run swings in this part of the draft. -- Woo
13. Sacramento Kings
Ron Holland, SF, G League Ignite | Age: 18.9
This pick has been mentioned for some time as being potentially attainable, which makes sense considering the urgency that's likely in place for a Kings team eager to return to the playoffs.
Retaining Malik Monk was a major step in that direction, alleviating the need for them to target a shooter (such as Jared McCain) with this pick, should they keep it, and maybe allowing them to take a flier on a high-upside prospect such as Holland, who was projected to be picked much higher than this before an inefficient season with the G League Ignite damaged his standing.
Older players such as Ja'Kobe Walter, Devin Carter and Johnny Furphy also are said to be getting some consideration with this pick. -- Givony
14. Portland Trail Blazers (via Warriors)
Ja'Kobe Walter, SG/SF, Baylor | Age: 19.7
Walter has worked out for teams all over the lottery but has largely had a quiet pre-draft process. There are other prospects who have generated more substantive buzz inside the top 10 at present, which might push Walter into this next part of the draft.
While not as flashy or creative as some of the other guards in this draft, Walter's shooting ability, defensive length and impressive intangibles have kept his value stable as a likely role player and floor spacer with room to keep improving.
A team such as Portland, which could use a 3-and-D type of player alongside its guards, might find value in him if he falls to No. 14. Should Walter make it outside the lottery, it likely wouldn't be too far, with a number of teams in the teens looking like good fits. -- Woo
15. Miami Heat
Zach Edey, C, Purdue | Age: 22.1
Edey is drawing interest from teams that are drafting in front of and behind Miami, with every squad in the back half of the lottery after San Antonio said to be in the market for a center. Utah, Portland, Sacramento and the Los Angeles Lakers were some of Edey's latest stops on the workout circuit.
His combination of size, power and intensity has been difficult to contain in a workout setting, as there simply aren't many players in this draft equipped to slow him down. One player who worked out against Edey compared the experience to "trying to guard Shaquille O'Neal."
Edey was one of the players voted by NBA teams for an invitation to the green room, but he has decided to instead watch the draft from West Lafayette, Indiana, with his coaches, teammates and family. He is the only player to decline the in-person opportunity. -- Givony
16. Philadelphia 76ers
Jared McCain, PG, Duke | Age: 20.3
The Sixers are known to have conducted only a handful of workouts, possibly the fewest of any team drafting in the first round. That info has caused some speculation that this pick could be on the move, depending on which player falls to No. 16.
Regardless of who is picking, McCain has an easy niche he can fill in the NBA with his scoring versatility, basketball instincts, competitiveness and smarts, making him an attractive option for teams drafting in this range. -- Givony
17. Los Angeles Lakers
Tristan Da Silva, SF/PF, Colorado | Age: 23.1
The Lakers likely will explore the trade market to see what type of veterans they can add to give LeBron James, Anthony Davis and new coach J.J. Redick the best chance of competing this season, with NBA names such as Dejounte Murray and Collin Sexton being batted around by rival teams as possible targets.
Should the Lakers elect to stand pat, picking a plug-and-play wing/forward such as Da Silva would make lots of sense. He has excellent size at 6-foot-10. He made 40% of his 3-pointers. And he brings a strong feel for the game, unselfishness and competitiveness on both ends of the floor.
Da Silva should be ready to play fairly soon for a team that is hoping to take a step forward. Yves Missi, McCain, Holland, Carrington, Shannon and Edey are some of the names rival teams have suggested might be in play here, as well. -- Givony
18. Orlando Magic
Johnny Furphy, SG/SF, Kansas | Age: 19.5
Furphy should come off the board somewhere in this range, offering an appealing combination of physical tools, shooting ability and youth that makes sense as a development addition on most rosters. He has drawn interest from teams selecting higher than this, including Memphis, Chicago, Oklahoma City and Sacramento, but might be more of a trade-back option for those clubs.
The Magic tend to value much of what Furphy supplies, having selected players with positional size, skill and strong intangibles over the past several drafts. Orlando also has been tied to Carrington and Kyshawn George, two other younger prospects who fit those criteria. -- Woo
19. Toronto Raptors (via Pacers)
Kyshawn George, SG/SF, Miami | Age: 20.5
Surrounding primary ballhandler Scottie Barnes with ample floor spacing will likely continue to be a priority for Toronto.
George hit 41% of his 3-pointers last season, and he is intriguing to teams as a 6-foot-8 player with guard skills, fluidity-changing speeds and strong instincts on both ends of the floor. George has significant upside he can tap into with a late-blooming trajectory.
Carrington, Da Silva, Edey, Ryan Dunn, Isaiah Collier are some of the names rival teams have suggested might be in play here, as well. -- Givony
20. Cleveland Cavaliers
Carlton Carrington, PG/SG, Pittsburgh | Age: 18.9
Carrington earned one of the final green room invitations, and he is likely to come off the board somewhere in the top 20, with Oklahoma City, Sacramento and Orlando thought to be among the interested parties.
His impressive and creative flashes as one of college basketball's youngest players along with solid intangibles make him an appealing long-term addition for any team in need of backcourt help. Carrington might come off the board before this, but the Cavaliers, who are in position to select the best talent available, would likely be excited to see him fall to No. 20. -- Woo
21. New Orleans Pelicans (via Bucks)
Yves Missi, C, Baylor | Age: 20.1
New Orleans is said to be aggressive on several fronts, with a decision coming on forward Brandon Ingram as he enters the final year of his contract and with starting center Jonas Valanciunas becoming a free agent. So, they'll need to ponder addressing those two positions, potentially on draft night.
Picking a big man such as Missi makes sense here, as he had no shortage of explosive moments as a freshman at Baylor, highlighting his elite physical tools as well as the potential he can grow into after having only started playing organized basketball at age 16.
Missi would likely fit in well on a roster that could use a player in this mold. -- Givony
22. Phoenix Suns
Ryan Dunn, SF/PF, Virginia | Age: 21.4
Dunn is said to be gaining steam in this range of the draft after a slew of outstanding workouts this month propelled him firmly into the first round. Several teams have said Dunn exceeded expectations with his shooting while also doing some absolutely mesmerizing things defensively in guarding point guards through centers in group settings.
Chicago, Toronto and the New York Knicks are others that rival teams indicate could be high on him.
The Suns might look more to free agency to explore adding a point guard to their roster, with Kris Dunn (not related) one potential option that rival teams expect them to look at. Trading back to resupply their depleted stockpile of assets (especially future picks) is another option the Suns' front office is said to be considering, due to the severely limited mechanics the team has to add talent with the punitive new second-apron rules that go into effect this summer. -- Givony
23. Milwaukee Bucks (via Pelicans)
Kyle Filipowski, PF/C, Duke | Age: 20.6
Filipowski primarily conducted workouts for teams selecting inside the top 20, but he looks to have a wide range of outcomes on draft night, running toward the back of the first round. He worked out for every team in the Nos. 9-to-13 range, but teams selecting in the 20s are also speculating he might be available to them.
His ability to play all over the floor on offense at his size (6-foot-11, 248 pounds) gives him unique appeal, but there are valid questions about his athletic ability and defensive impact, as he doesn't offer much in the way of rim-protection. He figures to be in the mix for every team in need of a big in this range, including the Milwaukee Bucks, who also are viewed as a possible landing spot for Kel'el Ware. -- Woo
24. New York Knicks (via Mavericks)
Isaiah Collier, PG, USC | Age: 19.7
It's not clear which team will be making this pick, as the Knicks will likely have trade opportunities with both the No. 24 and No. 25 picks and could be attracted to the idea of stockpiling future assets to maintain maximum flexibility heading into free agency.
Collier has perhaps the widest draft range of any prospect, starting at around No. 11 with Chicago and extending to the end of the first round. Teams such as Miami, Toronto, Cleveland and New Orleans are taking deep looks. But if no team bites, it's possible Collier slides to this part of the draft or even to Washington or Minnesota at Nos. 26 and 27, which would have been a shocking prediction prior to USC's season when he was considered among the draft's top prospects.
Few prospects share the size, strength, shot-creation prowess, scoring instincts and star power Collier boasts, but he'll have to find the right team willing to live through the growing pains that come with empowering him with significant ballhandling responsibility after his uneven freshman campaign. -- Givony
25. New York Knicks
Terrence Shannon Jr., SG/SF, Illinois | Age: 23.8
In wake of being found not guilty of felony rape and aggravated sexual assault, Shannon appears to have built considerable first-round momentum.
Following the conclusion of his trial, he was able to hold workouts for a range of teams selecting inside the top 20, including the Bulls, Heat, Lakers and Magic, giving him a chance to hear his name called much higher than this depending on how the draft breaks. The Knicks, who tend to value players with his level of toughness and motor, are also viewed as a potential fit for him if he falls.
Rival teams continue to anticipate the Knicks moving one of these draft picks, so another team might be selecting here at No. 25. -- Woo
26. Washington Wizards (via Clippers)
Kel'el Ware, C, Indiana | Age: 20.1
Ware secured one of the final green room invitations, which bodes well for his chances of hearing his name called in the first round, having conducted a wide range of workouts.
The number of teams in the market for bigs should also work in his favor, but there's also a good deal of uncertainty surrounding picks in the 20s at the moment.
Ware could come off the board higher than this, with New Orleans and Milwaukee among the teams in need of help at center. The Wizards will likely be selecting for long-term upside and could view this as strong value if Ware falls to No. 26. -- Woo
27. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tyler Kolek, PG, Marquette | Age: 23.2
Kolek has interest beginning in the late teens and will be a potential fit for any team in need of guard depth, viewed by many scouts as a player that can step in and help right away. Whether he can leapfrog some of the younger guards on the board remains to be seen.
The Timberwolves, who also have the No. 37 pick, have come up as a team that could look to trade around in the draft. Adding Kolek as Minnesota looks to move toward contention would shore up its backcourt depth behind Mike Conley, who turns 37 on Oct. 11. -- Woo
28. Denver Nuggets
DaRon Holmes II, PF/C, Dayton | Age: 21.8
Most NBA teams are operating under the assumption Holmes has received a promise from the Nuggets, as he canceled a half-dozen workouts shortly after the NCAA withdrawal deadline, with several smoking guns pointing in Denver's direction, a scenario that is similar to what we saw play out last year with Jalen Pickett.
Holmes at 6-foot-10 in shoes, has a skill level as a pick-and-roll finishing, floor-spacing big man who can pass and create off the dribble, and it gives him intriguing versatility to tap into on the offensive end. -- Givony
29. Utah Jazz (via Thunder)
Baylor Scheierman, SG/SF, Creighton | Age: 23.7
Multiple teams selecting toward the back of the first round have indicated they don't expect Scheierman to be available when they pick -- he has interest as high as the late teens due to his shooting ability, positional size, and impressive feel for the game.
Utah is one of the teams he worked out for, and the Jazz have the ability to go whichever direction they want, currently holding three selections, including No. 32, as well.
While he didn't earn a green room invitation, he seems likely to come off the board in the 20s or be one of the first names called in the second round. -- Woo
30. Boston Celtics
Pacome Dadiet, SG/SF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany) | Age: 18.9
Dadiet elected to remain in the draft at the NBA's withdrawal deadline, a sign he is receiving positive-enough feedback to feel comfortable with where he might end up being drafted.
Utah and Boston are some of the teams connected with Dadiet at the end of the first round. He also visited Orlando, Miami, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Milwaukee and Brooklyn in his short time in the United States because of his mandatory appearance at the draft combine in Treviso, Italy, in the first week of June.
Dadiet's combination of size (6-9), youth and shot-making prowess gives him an interesting upside to grow into long term, something that could be attractive at this stage of the draft. -- Givony
Second round
31. Toronto Raptors (via Pistons)
Adem Bona, C, UCLA | Age: 21.2
32. Utah Jazz (via Wizards)
Bobi Klintman, SF/PF, Cairns (Australia) | Age: 21.2
33. Milwaukee Bucks (via Trail Blazers)
Jaylon Tyson, SG/SF, California | Age: 21.5
34. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hornets)
Cam Christie, SG, Minnesota | Age: 18.9
35. San Antonio Spurs
Juan Nunez, PG, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany) | Age: 20.0
36. Indiana Pacers (via Raptors)
Tyler Smith, SF/PF, G League Ignite | Age: 19.6
37. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Grizzlies)
A.J. Johnson, SG, Illawarra (Australia) | Age: 19.5
38. New York Knicks (via Jazz)
Kevin McCullar, SF, Kansas | Age: 23.2
39. Memphis Grizzlies (via Nets)
Justin Edwards, SG/SF, Kentucky | Age: 20.5
40. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hawks)
Pelle Larsson, SG, Arizona | Age: 23.3
41. Philadelphia 76ers (via Bulls)
Jonathan Mogbo, PF/C, San Francisco | Age: 22.6
42. Charlotte Hornets (via Rockets)
Jamal Shead, PG, Houston | Age: 21.9
43. Miami Heat
Jaylen Wells, SG/SF, Washington State | Age: 20.8
44. Houston Rockets (via Warriors)
Harrison Ingram, SF/PF, North Carolina | Age: 21.5
45. Sacramento Kings
Ajay Mitchell, PG, UC Santa Barbara | Age: 21.9
46. LA Clippers (via Pacers)
Antonio Reeves, SG/SF, Kentucky | Age: 23.5
47. Orlando Magic
Melvin Ajinca, SG/SF, Saint Quentin (France) | Age: 19.9
48. San Antonio Spurs (via Lakers)
Cam Spencer, SG, UConn | Age: 24.2
49. Indiana Pacers (via Cavaliers)
Nikola Djurisic, SG/SF, Mega MIS (Adriatic League) | Age: 20.3
50. Indiana Pacers (via Pelicans)
Dillon Jones, SF/PF, Weber State | Age: 22.6
51. Washington Wizards (via Suns)
Keshad Johnson, PF, Arizona | Age: 23.0
52. Golden State Warriors (via Bucks)
KJ Simpson, PG, Colorado | Age: 21.8
53. Detroit Pistons (via Knicks)
Jalen Bridges, SF, Baylor | Age: 23.1
54. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks)
Ulrich Chomche, PF/C, NBA Academy Showcase (Africa) | Age: 18.4
55. Los Angeles Lakers (via Clippers)
Bronny James, PG/SG, USC | Age: 19.7
56. Denver Nuggets (via Timberwolves)
Oso Ighodaro, PF/C, Marquette | Age: 21.9
57. Memphis Grizzlies (via Thunder)
Enrique Freeman, PF/C, Akron | Age: 23.8
58. Dallas Mavericks (via Celtics)
Trentyn Flowers, SG/SF, Adelaide (Australia) | Age: 19.2
- 92,339
- 128,070
- 33,797
- 29,148
I would agree normally but the top of the draft is truly trash.
- 146,490
- 178,104
- 72,825
- 116,947
Sheppard DOES seem to make a lot of sense for Houston though. Enough creation out there between Sengun/Amen/Green/etc to where he can be more of a floor spacer and secondary creator. Enough defenders to help make up for him too if he struggles on that end.
- 25,778
- 46,561
The Hawks are trying so hard to trade the pick
… If they gotta keep it Hope they go completely outta nowhere and draft Ron Holland or Edey
- 92,339
- 128,070
- 33,797
- 29,148
Sarr feels like jack of all trades master of none, very Dragan Bender to me.
Klingon is like Gobert but if Gobert was even worse on offense.
Buzelis reminds me of Joe Alexander, atheltic tall, not that good at basketball.
If Risacher can't shoot seems like he's a insta bust.
Reed can dribble and shoot, and seems, with some improvements in passing feels like he could easily be taller Fred Van Vleet?
Imo all these guys are meh so I don't see why Reed can't be a top 5 pick.
Klingon is like Gobert but if Gobert was even worse on offense.
Buzelis reminds me of Joe Alexander, atheltic tall, not that good at basketball.
If Risacher can't shoot seems like he's a insta bust.
Reed can dribble and shoot, and seems, with some improvements in passing feels like he could easily be taller Fred Van Vleet?
Imo all these guys are meh so I don't see why Reed can't be a top 5 pick.
- 72,825
- 116,947
I feel like Cam Spencer should go earlier in the 2nd than he’s getting mocked. He’s old as hell, but he’s a great shooter, can dribble, and plays defense. Can probably play rotational minutes as a spacer right away.
Basically like Reed Sheppard without the potential ceiling.
Basically like Reed Sheppard without the potential ceiling.
- 35,362
- 26,990
I dont think he's anywhere as good as the Garland, FVV comps I'm seeing. Those guys can consistently beat players off the dribble without a screen.
He's more Patty Mills.
