NBA Draft 2024: John Hollinger’s Top 75 prospects, featuring Bronny James and more
And we’re back! With less than a week before the NBA Draft, and all of the players who will be in it confirmed, it’s time to expand my draft board.
I shared my top 20 draft prospects just before the draft combine. That list hasn’t changed, and you can find it below. However, we’re adding 55 more names to the list; I’m not necessarily betting on these players, but I think it would make sense to select them at a certain point in the draft where the failure rate is relatively high no matter whom a team takes. I’ve also included several two-way candidates, as that has become an increasingly important roster-building mechanism in recent years.
Tier 06 - One super sleeper
21. Jonathan Mogbo
F SAN FRANCISCO Age: 22 Height: 6-6
Mogbo has some things working against him, which is why I couldn’t quite get him into my top 20. He’s only 6-6 and played as a rim-running five at San Francisco, making zero 3-pointers and attempting only two all season. He’s already 22. And he didn’t play in a power conference.
Nonetheless, he becomes a compelling proposition because the strengths here are strong; if the shooting comes around at all, he has a great chance to be a steal in the back half of the draft. Mogbo played guard as a kid before a late growth spurt and handles the ball very well for his size, but more importantly, he is a good passer who averaged 7.4 dimes per 100 possessions – lofty stuff for a center. He’s able to push his own rebounds, lead the break and make decisions on the move and run actions from the elbows in the half court.
He combines that with a very different skill: elite rebounding, despite being an undersized center. His 22.0 percent rebound rate led the WCC and was fourth in the nation – just ahead of some guy named Zach Edey.
Mogbo has great instincts that show up behind his passing, particularly in a superb steal rate for a center (3.2 swipes per 100 possessions) and his high field goal percentage in the paint. While he’s not going to be rim-running for dunks except, perhaps, in brief cameos as a junk-ball five, he’s shown he has the all-court game to be a productive NBA forward. He reflected much of that in the NBA Draft Combine, where in 37 minutes across two games, he filled the stat sheet with 11 rebounds, seven assists and four steals.
Now, about the shooting: I’ve seen Mogbo shoot 3s before games, and his shot isn’t broken. He has a push shot from distance and it’s a bit slow, but he can be threatening enough to warrant at least some token degree of respect from defenses. He shot 69.2 percent from the line in his final college season.
At this point in the draft, I’d take those positives and the upside over the fairly meh outlooks of the rest of the field. Realistically, I expect Mogbo to be picked in the 40s or 50s, but I think he’s one of the most interesting players in this class.
Tier 07 - Quasi-sleepers
22. Bub Carrington
G PITTSBURGH Age: 18 Height: 6-4
Carrington was only moderately effective in his one college season, but a July 2005 birthdate and a workable base of guard skills hints at more.
He shot only 32.2 percent from 3 and 78.5 percent from the line, but his future is as a shooter: His form looks good from a set position and off catch-and-shoots, and he gets good elevation on his shot. Where he tended to get into trouble was when he went to more complex moves, where his balance would break down and his arms would get out of alignment, dragging down his percentages. That said, he shot 3s at a high volume, and that part of his game should translate.
Carrington also rebounded well for his size and had nearly two assists for every turnover in ACC play despite often playing off the ball.
Where you worry a little is in some of his athletic indicators. Nothing is easy for him; he has skill for his size but doesn’t exactly pop off the floor or blow by opponents on the move. His piddling rate of 1.0 steals per 100 possessions is extremely low for a guard prospect, and the tape showed him giving acres of cushion, suggesting he didn’t trust his feet much. He also only shot 47.0 percent on 2s partly because he didn’t put a ton of pressure on the rim.
I’d have an easier time giving Carrington a top-20 grade if his youth was accompanied by a bit more athletic sizzle. Still, he’s very young and decently skilled, so there’s some chance he turns into a valuable offensive player. In a draft where most of the remaining prospects are quite old, his age is a major differentiator.
23. Tyler Smith
F, C G LEAGUE IGNITE Age: 19 Height: 6-9
Smith has some yellow flags that keep him out of my top 20 – he’s not a very instinctive defender, and you want a big man to read things at the end of the floor quicker. Positionally, he seems a bit stuck between four and five. There are parallels to Christian Wood, where Smith’s defense may be suspect enough that teams can’t fit his offense onto the floor. The more positive argument is that he can be a Bobby Portis-type third big who rains buckets while toggling between two frontcourt spots.
Smith has a fairly high ceiling as a stretch big at the offensive end, especially since he companies that with plus athleticism. He’s not a total zero on defense either, hustling end to end and offering secondary rim protection as a shot blocker. His rapid improvement from Overtime Elite to his one year at G League Ignite also speaks well in his favor, especially since Ignite wasn’t exactly a program with which players regularly made giant strides.
Smith mustered 61.6 percent true shooting in the G League as a stretch big despite playing without a real point guard who could make his life easier. He hit 36.0 percent from 3 on solid volume and showed the ability to face up smaller opponents on switches and let it fly from midrange over the top of them. Between his size, left-handedness and Texas roots, there are some Chris Bosh parallels offensively.
Smith needs to hit as an offensive player, though, because the rest isn’t nearly as far along. In particular, he has to up his physicality to survive as an NBA five; a 12.7 percent rebound rate isn’t going to cut it.
24. Pacome Dadiet
F RATIOPHARM ULM Age: 18 Height: 6-8
Dadiet isn’t a big “tools” guy the way a couple of other French prospects are, but his statistical output as a teenager in a B-level European league aren’t all that different from what the more highly touted Risacher and Salaun accomplished. I get the question about whether Dadiet is more a “floor” player than a ceiling one, but teams are constantly looking for guys in this size profile who can stretch the floor.
Dadiet would seem to have a decent chance of qualifying on these fronts, especially when attached with the possibility of being stashed overseas for another year or two before a team is compelled to bring him over. Let’s start with the shooting: While the numbers aren’t overwhelming (35.8 percent from 3, 74.4 percent from the line), the eye test says his jumper is wet. He has a nice, compact flick that comes off his fingers rotating perfectly and good balance getting into shots off the dribble.
Between that, his size and athleticism, Dadiet doesn’t need to add a heck of a lot on the ball to be a useful player. That’s good news, probably, because he hasn’t shown much juice as a creator. He has a high bounce, doesn’t change directions easily and doesn’t read the floor all that well.
Dadiet wasn’t exactly a defensive player of the year candidate in Germany this year, either. He has size and mobility on his side, but lowlights included only blocking eight shots in 903 minutes – #NotGreatBob when you’re 6-8 – and generally reading plays a half-beat late or slow.
Overall, Dadiet seems underrated to me given his birthdate, as his odds of achieving rotation-level usefulness seem pretty decent. I’d rate him a better version of Kyshawn George – younger, more athletic and with a more credible résumé of production.
Tier 08 - Some centers
25. Zach Edey
C PURDUE Age: 22 Height: 7-4
My basic outline of the risk-reward proposition on Edey goes something like this:
He’ll probably get cooked on defense. But what if he doesn’t?
Edey had dominant college stats and looks amazing in some statistical models, but the center position is the most radically different one when we talk about jumping from the NCAA to the NBA. In a related story, big, lumbering centers are the fail point of many draft models.
Edey will have to play a different game from what he did at Purdue, where he basically cut through the paint into post-ups on offense and played deep drop coverage in the paint on defense (I’m talking Jacques Cousteau deep). NBA centers, even the best and slowest ones, are now asked to defend in space, run to the rim in pick-and-roll and be threatening on the move out of short rolls.
In that sense, it feels like Edey arrived two decades late. Many aspects of his game are reminiscent of Yao Ming, with immense size making his shot unblockable and a high, accurate line-drive release. Any team that posts him up consistently will get points out if it. It’s just a question of whether he can avoid calamity at the other end.
However, a career rate of fewer than one steal for every 100 minutes is truly phenomenal, and not in a good way. It’s another indicator of the defensive mobility issues that might swamp his offensive contribution. To be fair, Edey held up better than you’d think on switches in the limited number of times Purdue tried it; NBA guards will be able to walk into pull-up 3s against him, but he can get in a stance and use angles and his imposing size fairly effectively to take away blow-bys.
Finally, a piece of the Edey debate that has received far less discussion: Drafting older centers has been a surefire way to light money on fire for at least the last decade. Edey is 22.
Overall, the “What if he figures it out like Brook Lopez did?” question on defense is tempting enough that he probably becomes worth a dice roll in the 20s and 30s. Even in a draft this weak, however, I can’t see him going higher than that.
26. Kel’El Ware
C INDIANA Age: 20 Height: 7-0
Is there something here? Maybe? Almost across the board, Ware’s indicator stats were neither good enough to stamp him as an automatic first-rounder nor bad enough to exclude him from consideration. He has a thin frame, and opposing post players are likely to have success getting into his body, but he also showed more toughness and mettle at Indiana than in his freshman season at Oregon.
Ware’s most impressive numbers come at the doctor’s office. He measured 6-11 3/4 in socks at the combine with a 7-4 1/2 wingspan and 9-4 1/2 standing reach. That, plus decent mobility, offers serious potential as a rim protector; Ware’s block rate wasn’t exceptional, but the tape at Indiana shows some weird plays where it seems like he could have blocked the shot and opted not to, perhaps in an effort to avoid fouls.
Ware’s offensive role is perhaps a bigger question; he has shown the skill at times to step out and hit 3s but has yet to do so consistently. Similarly, his length and mobility give him obvious utility as a rim runner, but his ability to pass out of those situations remains a question. Between that and the lesser value I put on drafting centers, I can’t quite put him in my top 20, but he’s interesting.
27. DaRon Holmes II
F, C DAYTON Age: 21 Height: 6-9
Holmes was a hugely productive college player but seems trapped between the four and five spots at the NBA level and will have to make some adjustments for his game to work at either position.
Unfortunately, it seems like he’ll have to play the five defensively despite only measuring 6-8 3/4 in socks at the combine, because he doesn’t seem that comfortable defending on an island. The hands are active, and he can contest shots late with his springiness, but he gives a ton of ground to guards. Meanwhile, in the paint, his lack of lower-body strength means opponents can either power through him or spin off him with relative ease.
Offensively, Holmes became a really good player at the college level but doesn’t quite have one go-to skill that differentiates him as a pro. He can make 3s (38.6 percent this past season on 83 attempts) but a career 67.1 percent mark at the foul line doesn’t inspire confidence that he can become a true stretch option. He’s a good one-on-one player who scored at an extremely high rate at Dayton (40.4 points per 100 possessions!) and can put it on the floor and pass, but a lot of the things he did best to dominate the Atlantic 10 will become more difficult against NBA size. Still, Holmes could reach the point where has a Christian Wood-type offensive impact.
All of this makes him look like a typical late first-rounder, with enough tools to make a rotation if everything works out 10 percent better than the median expectation.
Tier 09 - Final first-round grades
28. Jaylon Tyson
F CALIFORNIA Age: 21 Height: 6-6
Tyson doesn’t blow you away with athleticism, but he has a good basketball IQ and a believable skill set for a wing, shooting 37.2 percent from 3 over his three college seasons while often acting as a lead ballhandler for an overmatched Cal team. He measured as a disappointing 6-5 1/2 in socks at the combine, so his future is definitely at the two and three, but his solid frame and plus rebound rate are indicative of somebody who can play bigger.
Defensively, Tyson’s clips make it hard for me to get fired up about him as a first-rounder. He doesn’t trust his feet enough to get into the ball, instead giving players cushion to waltz into a jump shot, and he doesn’t have the length to make impactful shot challenges once they go up. He had a high steal rate in his first two college seasons, however, and can likely put more effort into this end if he’s not being asked to create every shot for the offense.
Tyson’s shooting accuracy isn’t a major question, but he does have a slow release on his shot, and it’s off to the side of his head. Additionally, his role was likely too big for him even as a collegian, with a high turnover rate and just 55.7 percent true shooting. He showed some craft as a finisher to compensate for his lack of elite athleticism and being generally slow, but he’s going to need oodles of it at the next level. Those factors kept Tyson out of my top 20, but his IQ and skill could make him a solid rotation wing if he can hold up on defense.
29. Justin Edwards
F KENTUCKY Age: 20 Height: 6-6
Edwards was an older freshman (he turns 21 in December) and isn’t an elite athlete (a 28-inch no step vertical, confirmed by his getting rim-checked on a two-footed dunk attempt in Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament loss to Oakland.), thus, the high-lottery hype he had coming into the season was likely always misplaced.
That said, I think the pendulum might have swung a bit too far against him during his disappointing campaign at Kentucky, and Edwards is a pretty good bet to be a useful role player at the next level. He wouldn’t be the first Wildcats perimeter player under John Calipari to look a lot better after he left Lexington.
The narrative is that Edwards had a terrible year, but he ended up with a 18.5 PER on 66.9 percent true shooting in SEC play – pretty darned good for a one-and-done. Going deeper under the hood, he shot 56 percent on 2s and had a respectable steals rate. That’s partly offset by a poor assist rate and a sky-high foul rate, but there’s nothing red-flaggy in his profile. Underwhelming in places, maybe, but not red-flaggy. He played two pretty solid games at the combine, too, and dished out five assists.
Edwards’ feel for the game is definitely a work in progress – he was the lord of the one-dribble pull-up 2 in the first half of the season, and his 3-point shooting numbers in SEC play this season (a torrid 50.1 percent) likely vastly overstated his true ability level. Edwards’ shot doesn’t always come off his hand cleanly, and his release isn’t terribly fast. While he got on a big hot streak in conference play, he made 36.5 percent from 3 overall on fairly low volume and 77.6 percent from the line. I’d project him as an average shooter for a small forward.
Players in this size range are always in demand, and you can play several of them at once. Thus, I’ll always be biased toward taking them higher rather than lower, especially the young ones. Edwards has his flaws, and it’s possible he just doesn’t have the feel to overcome his other limitations. This package, however, seems worth taking a stab at between picks 20 and 40.
30. Baylor Scheierman
F CREIGHTON Age: 23 Height: 6-6
In a draft with a surfeit of 23- and 24-year-olds, Scheierman is my highest-ranked senior citizen after Knecht. He will turn 24 in September and has bad athletic indicators: low rates of steals, blocks and 2-point shooting across all 17 years of his college career. (OK, five years, but still.)
However, the lefty offers a clear positional fit as a big wing who can shoot and operate as a secondary ballhandler. He was the best player in the on-court session at the draft combine (which nearly all the projected first-rounders skipped), and historically, that has had some predictive value. (Take a bow, Andrew Nembhard.)
Also, guys with this kind of shooting track record (38.1 percent from 3 on massive volume, 87.6 percent from the line) have been pretty bankable as NBA role players, especially when they combine it with positional size. Scheierman also punches way above his weight on his glass, posting a stellar 15.9 percent rebound rate in Big East games. This is a low-ceiling, high-floor proposition, but in a weak draft, it gets my last first-round grade.
Tier 10 - Second-rounders who may make it
31. KJ Simpson
G COLORADO Age: 21 Height: 6-0
It feels quite odd that two Colorado players are projected to go ahead of Simpson, given that he was obviously the Buffaloes’ best player and probably should have won Pac-12 Player of the Year over Arizona’s Caleb Love.
Simpson is only 6-0, which immediately puts him behind the eight-ball in the NBA game. His athletic indicators are positive, including a 10.0 percent rebound rate that’s sensational for a small guard, but he doesn’t have the freakish blow-by quickness that you’d like from a player of this size. Simpson’s breakout junior season instead came about through a massive leap as a shooter; he nailed 43.4 percent from 3 and 87.6 percent from the line in 2023-24.
The tape shows a guy who could get opportunistic steals but wasn’t turning guards three times coming up the court or anything; again, for a small guard, you’d hope for a bit more ball pressure. That said, I think sometimes teams are too dismissive of the idea that a small guard can succeed with skill and craft; Tyus Jones, for instance, has done so without shooting nearly as well as Simpson.
While he probably profiles as a backup, at this point in the draft, Simpson feels like a reasonable proposition. He probably doesn’t warrant a fringe first-round grade in a normal-strength draft, but all the remaining options are either significantly older, significantly worse or both.
32. Adem Bona
C UCLA Age: 21 Height: 6-8
May I interest you in a 6-8 center who can’t shoot? Bona probably tops out as a backup given his offensive limitations and lack of height, but he has the athleticism (35-inch no-step vertical) and length (7-3 3/4 wingspan) to make up for only measuring 6-8 1/4 in socks at the combine.
Bona had a lot of success switching onto guards on the perimeter and was comfortable getting up into guards dribbling; he also had a high steal rate for a center. Despite his size and frequent defensive forays on the perimeter, he had a 9.9 percent block rate in Pac-12 games. The bigger concern with him is probably on the glass, where he punched below a typical draftable center’s weight with just a 14.2 percent rebound rate.
Offensively, Bona pops off the floor on rim runs, but his potential there was largely nullified in a constipated UCLA offense that rarely offered open lanes to paradise. His skill set is pretty limited otherwise, with a predilection for turnovers and a career 67.6 percent free-throw rate. That showed in his first combine game, when he fouled out and had four turnovers, although he played much better in the second one.
Bona’s ceiling is likely too limited to justify a first-round pick, but he has fairly believable utility as a switchable, high-energy big man who can get some free points on dunks.
33. Ryan Dunn
F VIRGINIA Age: 21 Height: 6-6
Dunn can guard all five positions, and his defensive tape doesn’t leave many questions. He averaged 3.1 steals and 5.4 blocks per 100 possessions in a conservative scheme, finished second to teammate Reece Beekman in the ACC Defensive Player of the Year vote and had a plus rebound rate for a four. Physically, he only measured 6-6 1/4 in socks at the combine but has a 7-1 1/2 wingspan, making him a rare “plus-7” in NBA parlance. The reason to draft him is for his defense; he can be an impact player on that end from Day 1.
Unfortunately, today’s NBA is all about offense, and Dunn’s outside shot is a down-to-the-studs rebuild. He began the season taking 3s but lost all confidence as the year went on and wasn’t looking at the basket by the end. He’s an atrocious foul shooter, too. Right now, nearly all his baskets come on dunks and layups from random offense; while he could have some potential as an undersized rim-runner, it’s hard to see somebody of his size surviving for long on an NBA floor without a real 3-point shot.
That makes Dunn a classic second-round dart throw, a bet that maybe his shot comes around enough to keep him on the floor for his elite defense.
34. Yves Missi
C BAYLOR Age: 20 Height: 6-11
It’s easy to understand why Missi is getting first-round looks; he pops off the floor in game tape in a way that demands you rewind and ask, “Who the hell was that?” He had a 31-inch no-step vertical at the combine, but it’s how quickly he gets up for blocks and finishes that gets your attention.
Missi is old for a freshman, turning 20 in May, but also young as a basketball player, coming to the U.S. from Cameroon in 2021 with relatively little experience. You can see that with all the rough edges in his game; he doesn’t have great feel for passing and fouls with abandon.
Some other aspects of his game present questions too. A player of this ilk should put up huge rebounding numbers, but Missi’s rebound rate (14.5 percent in Big 12 games) was unimpressive for a center prospect. He also didn’t show a lot of comfort defending on the perimeter and had a very low steals rate even for a center.
The reason he’s in the mix for the first round is the combo of athletic pop and ballhandling skill for his size; Missi loves to face-up opposing bigs from the free-throw line and has superior mobility to take them off the bounce. Without an accompanying shooting threat, however, this may be much harder to pull off in the NBA. Overall, I get why some teams have him rated as a top-20 prospect given the developmental upside, but there are too many rough edges. I wouldn’t roll the dice until the second round.
35. Harrison Ingram
F NORTH CAROLINA Age: 21 Height: 6-5
Ingram might be slightly too slow and slightly too unskilled to make it as a rotation player, but the league is starving for guys in his size profile who can dribble and pass, and he checks those boxes. If he hits, he’s going to end up being a valuable player.
Ingram made an encouraging 38.5 percent of his 3s this past season, but he shot only 34.5 percent from 3 over his college career to go with a ghastly 62.4 percent from the line. He also doesn’t pop athletically, especially in terms of getting separation, but a 7-0 1/4 wingspan makes up for his coming up short, literally, in socks (6-5 1/4) at the combine – just a wee bit shy of the 6-7 he was listed at through college.
Ingram, however, is a pretty good leaper and outperforms on the glass, with an eye-popping 18.5 percent rebound rate in ACC games last season. He also can handle the ball and distribute well enough that he operated as Stanford’s de facto point guard for two seasons before transferring to North Carolina. Defensively, his tape was solid as an on-ball defender, and he has some handsy-ness to go with his basketball IQ.
He kept those trend lines up in the combine games, where he had 19 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and four steals across the two contests in 45 total minutes. I’m surprised his combine performance didn’t get more attention, as he was one of the best players there. Between his positional value, varied skill set and being a relatively young junior who won’t turn 22 until November, Ingram seems underrated right now.
36. Tyler Kolek
G MARQUETTE Age: 23 Height: 6-1
Kolek is already 23, but he’s a left-handed pick-and-roll maestro who averaged 13.5 assists per 100 possessions and shot 55.2 percent on 2s. He’s also a good shooter with his feet set, although his release is slow and he doesn’t seem comfortable launching coming off or around screens; that’s why he only took 6.8 3s per 100 possessions, low volume for a skill-based guard prospect. His high-arcing shot barely rotates in the air but splashes regularly; he’s an 81.9 percent career foul shooter and made 38.8 percent from 3 his final season at Marquette.
Kolek, however, can be prone to turnovers; he’s so focused on jailing the defender in pick-and-roll that he barely seems to notice what’s in front of him. He’s also left-handed and a bit small – listed at 6-3 at Marquette – he measured 6-1 1/4 in socks at the combine. A 27-inch no-step vertical won’t get anyone’s blood pumping either.
Kolek rebounds well for his size and has a solid steal rate, but I think his feet will be challenged at the next level. He projects to be a solid backup, but it’s harder to see starter-level outcomes, and if he’s not good enough to keep the ball in his hands all the time, I’m not sure what his role is.
37. Kyshawn George
F MIAMI (FLA.) Age: 20 Height: 6-7
George is already 20 but got his first taste of high-level basketball with the Hurricanes this year after arriving from Switzerland. He has perimeter skill and is comfortable shooting from deep, with the size to see over closeouts and fire away. George made 40.8 percent of his 3s on plentiful volume, and his high assist rate for a forward indicates he can move it to the next guy when an opening isn’t there.
Athletically, however, George underwhelms. His no-step vertical was just 27 inches at the combine, and he had a pathetic 7.3 percent rebound rate at Miami. Offensively, he has no juice whatsoever inside the arc, shooting just 46.7 percent on his rare 2-point forays, with a high turnover rate and few free throws.
On a more positive note, George's steals and blocks rates were credible for an NBA prospect, and for somebody with no burst, I was surprised by how well he could hang on defense. Even though he was usually bigger than his opponent, he liked to play up on dribblers and get into the ball, and his first slide was solid. He just had no catch-up speed if he was initially beat.
Overall, there’s a believable 3-and-D package here, but the low-wattage athleticism and shot creation puts a hard ceiling on it. Even if George hits, it likely will be as a low-volume offensive player chilling in the corners most trips.
38. Juan Nunez
G RATIOPHARM ULM Age: 20 Height: 6-4
Nunez just turned 20 and already is a very effective player in the German league who throws saucy left-handed dimes; he also gets reps for Spain’s national team. Despite that, his combination of limited athleticism and iffy shooting has teams left struggling to get too excited about him. Specifically, the dude cannot jump – a 22-inch no-step vertical has to be some kind of record for a guard prospect.
While the athleticism stands out on his stat sheet in some ways (two blocks in his last 2,500 minutes), Nunez offsets that with a tremendous nose for the ball. His rebound rates are excellent for a point guard (9.6 percent this season, 10.3 percent last season), and his 3.7 percent steal percentage nearly led the Basketball Bundesliga.
He’s also a bona fide point guard at 6-4, with more than an assist every five minutes this season and more than two dimes for every turnover. All of that would make him pretty easy to buy into, despite the athleticism questions … if he could shoot.
Nunez has shot exactly 60.7 percent from the foul line each of the past two seasons. No es gran, Roberto. From the 3-point line, he has shot 31.9 percent two years in a row. While his consistency is admirable, Nunez has to be a plus shooter to succeed on an NBA floor, and at the moment, he’s nowhere close. A glass-half-full perspective is that his shot doesn’t look overtly broken; it just doesn’t go in much.
Nonetheless, his age and stashability (he reportedly signed a new deal with FC Barcelona) make him a solid pick at this point in the draft. Teams can either see his shot develop and bring him over as a plug-and-play rotation guard or don’t have to bother rostering the pick if he can’t fix his shot.
39. Jamal Shead
G HOUSTON Age: 21 Height: 6-0
An undersized bulldog with a questionable outside stroke, Shead has elements of a poor man’s Kyle Lowry if he can just straighten out the 3. His pure activity was enough to generate 27 points and 10 assists in two combine games, and as a backup point guard, he profiles as somebody who can provide a jolt despite his size and shooting question marks.
Shead only shot 29.2 percent from 3 for his college career, he measured 6-0 1/4 in socks at the combine and he turns 22 in July. That’s enough for some to cross him off their list right away, but he’s a hyper-defender who generated 4.3 steals per 100 possessions in Houston’s high-pressure defensive system, and he worked well enough as a distributor to hand out three dimes for every turnover.
He’ll need those passing numbers to translate, because Shead’s shooting woes aren’t just outside the arc; he only made 45.1 percent of his shots inside the arc in Big 12 play, with his size making it harder for him to get clean finishes at the rim.
Tier 11 - Roll the dice
40. AJ Johnson
G ILLAWARRA Age: 19 Height: 6-4
Johnson had a rough season in Australia, finishing with a 7.0 PER in 239 minutes. The shooting is a real question: Forget shooting from distance, he barely made a third of his 2s.
That said, Johnson’s performance in the combine scrimmages likely earned him a lot of grace for his rough year overseas. He won’t turn 20 until December, and we’re nearly out of teenage prodigies to bet on at this point on the board. Additionally, he played against older prospects at the combine and finished 7 of 14 from the field with 10 assists and one turnover in the two games. Included in that total was a flying dunk down the lane that every scout there will tell you was the most memorable play of the week.
I’m not going to readjust my board because somebody had a cool dunk, but Johnson’s pre-Australia priors were strong – he was a five-star recruit in 2023 before decommitting from Texas to venture Down Under – and his overall combine performance was reasonably convincing. He’ll have to play point guard because he’s so thin and his shooting remains a concern, so I can’t give him a first-round grade. But he’s definitely … interesting.
41. Nikola Djurišić
F KK MEGA BEMAX Age: 20 Height: 6-7
Durišić is good enough that I wouldn’t consider him a pure stash – more like somebody you leave overseas for one more year and then bring over. He’s already a solid player in the Adriatic League and could potentially be more if he can shoot consistently.
He measured 6-7 in socks at the combine, although he had a short wingspan, making him a legit small forward. That makes his other standout feature more compelling: He can really pass, averaging nearly four dimes a game in Europe this year, and remember, overseas scorekeepers are much less willing to credit assists.
On the downside, Đurišić shot only 30.5 percent from 3 last season after making just 21.4 percent the year before; despite that, he took about a third of his shots from 3 in both seasons. His foul shooting has been only slightly more consistent (69.1 percent in 2022-23, 76.1 percent in 2023-24). Additionally, his six-percent rebound rate is just plain sad for a player of this size.
Durišić helped himself at the combine, scoring 20 points in 32 minutes and only committing two turnovers; notably, he made several jump shots on the second day. His shooting numbers this season were notably improved from the year before, so it’s possible this part of his game is coming around.
42. Jaylen Wells
F WASHINGTON STATE Age: 20 Height: 6-7
Wells is 6-7 and shot 41.7 percent from 3 in 2023-24. Yes, tell me more. Every team in the league is looking for his skill-size intersection. Arriving in the Pac-12 as a relative unknown from Sonoma State, Wells played as a role player even in college but did exceedingly well. In addition to the 3s, he had a microscopic turnover rate (just 1.4 per 100 possessions) and added some scoring juice inside the arc. He also shot 81.4 percent from the line, in case you were worried the 3-point shooting was a fluke.
That said, Wells has some limitations that likely cap him as an NBA role player. He had exceptionally low rates of blocks and steals – despite standing 6-7, he only blocked eight shots all season – he was a poor rebounder and rarely created for others. The combine games highlighted some of these deficits, as he had just three rebounds, one steal and zero assists in two games. He also missed some open 3s he’d typically make and still managed to score 13 points in the second game, but it wasn’t exactly an eye-catching performance.
43. Ajay Mitchell
G UC SANTA BARBARA Age: 22 Height: 6-3
An unusual player who requires several viewings to get a handle on, Mitchell is a strong lefty who has a variety of finishes in the paint area and thrived putting small guards in jail on the block. I’m not sure that will work as well in the NBA as it did in the Big West, but he has other skills to fall back on, as he showed at the combine when he ran the point for two games and handed out nine assists.
A big swing skill for Mitchell will be his 3-point shooting; he upped his percentage to 39.3 percent this past season but on very low volume. From a flat-footed standstill, he has a low release and it’s a bit slow getting out, but it’s fine – his 81.8 percent career mark from the line supports that.
Where things get weird is on the move, where it seems like a hidden grappling hook off screens is tugging him to his right; watching him shoot before a game, he consistently ended up several inches to the right of his takeoff spot. That balance issue is important because he will need to shoot 3s off the bounce at the next level, and right now, that’s not in his bag.
Physically, Mitchell is not an elite athlete by any stretch, but he has a strong base and a solid frame that should help him guard up a position on defense if he needs to. Mitchell has a Belgian passport, incidentally, but it seems unlikely that he would be selected as a stash pick.
44. Cam Christie
G MINNESOTA Age: 18 Height: 6-5
The brother of Los Angeles Lakers guard Max Christie, Cam Christie shot 39.1 percent from 3 on fairly high volume in his one season in Minnesota. Because of that and his positional size, there’s an obvious hope that he can be a reasonable 3-and-D guy.
However, even relative to the other one-and-done guys in this draft, the Christie steak seems severely undercooked. He only shot 40.8 percent on 2s in Big Ten games and was often a secondary option on a team that wasn’t exactly overflowing with talent. The athletic markers (blocks/steals/rebounds/free throws) are all underwhelming too. The biggest reason to select Christie is his birth certificate – he’s the youngest collegian in this draft, beating Bub Carrington by three days, but Carrington’s freshman season was far more productive.
That said, the eye test on Christie’s athleticism is better than his stats – he can run and jump, and his tape shows him sliding his feet and keeping dribblers out of harm’s way. He just doesn’t make many plays; maybe that changes in time. Christie is a developmental play who a team would probably want on a two-way for all of 2024-25 rather than burning a roster spot, but he’s the last legit college prospect on the board who can’t legally enter a bar.
45. Trentyn Flowers
G ADELAIDE Age: 19 Height: 6-7
Flowers is 19, measured 6-6 1/2 in socks and posted a 34.5-inch no-step vertical – only three players at the combine topped it. He shot 5 of 5 in his first combine game, and while he certainly wasn’t good in Australia this past year, he wasn’t destructively bad once Adelaide stopped a ridiculous experiment to play him at point guard.
Flowers doesn’t always use his athleticism in the course of a game – how did he only block two shots in 300 minutes? – and three turnovers for every assist is definitely a red flag. His best developmental pathway might be as a shooting specialist who can add the ability to get downhill in straight lines, but his impact is likely to be limited unless he can read the game a bit better and fill out more physically (he was only 201 pounds at the combine).
He's an interesting bet because there just isn’t a lot of good information here: He hasn’t played in a game since January, and he was a half-notch below the top recruits who played in events like the Hoop Summit and Jordan Classic. Still, virtually any teenager who shows some ability is a better bet than the sea of 23- and 24-year-olds left on the board at this point in the draft.
Tier 12 - Old guys
46. Enrique Freeman
F AKRON Age: 23 Height: 6-7
Freeman might have the most compelling backstory of any other prospect in the last decade. He went to Akron on an academic scholarship and walked onto the team because a coach saw him crushing in pickup.
Four years later, Freeman ended up graduating as the best player in the Mid-America Conference and hanging 21 and 14 on Creighton in an NCAA Tournament game. While he was there, he picked up his MBA.
Freeman measured at just 6-7 1/4 in socks at the combine and only 212 pounds, but he played center at Akron and led the nation in rebound rate at 23.2 percent. His vertical isn’t that impressive – 30 1/2 inches on his no-step vertical – but he’s what scouts call “bouncy,” getting off the floor quickly and hopping back up right away on his second jump.
Obviously, he’ll need to change positions as a pro. Freeman added a 3-pointer to his arsenal last season and is clearly still developing, so his age might be “younger” than it is for most. Still, he’s ancient for a prospect, turning 24 in July, and his poor rates of steals and assists are indicative of ways he might struggle on the perimeter at the next level.
Freeman likely quelled a lot of doubts by his performance at the combine, where he was a standout in the on-court sessions and finished his two games with 29 points and five steals. He’s a strong two-way candidate who might even get a roster contract if he lands in the right place.
47. Dillon Jones
G WEBER STATE Age: 22 Height: 6-5
Jones is an odd player, one who isn’t a great shooter or much of a leaper, has a football player’s body and turns 23 in October. Yet, he impacts the stat sheet in enough ways that he might still be a top-40 guy.
Let’s start with the bad news. Jones only jumped 26 1/2 inches at the combine in his no-step vertical and weighed in at 236.8 pounds, easily the heaviest of any perimeter player. Those dimensions are great for a nose tackle, not so great for a shooting guard. Also, he shot just 32.0 percent from 3 in his college career, including 32.4 percent in his final season, and some of his passing skill is offset by a sky-high turnover rate.
That said … there are enough oddball, disparate strengths here to think he could be a valuable player if the 3 straightens out. Jones has very long arms – a 6-11 wingspan – helping him overcome his athletic deficits. He has a great nose for the ball, too, with a mind-boggling career defensive rebound rate of 32.1 percent. Sure, this was in the Big Sky Conference, but it stands out anywhere, and it has translated to higher-level environments. (Jones’ rate this year was second in the entire nation; again, he is a 6-5 guard.)
Jones’ length also is an equalizer for him on defense, where he picked 3.2 steals per 100 possessions. He handles the ball well for his size and is a bowling ball going down the lane, drawing heaps of fouls in the process.
As for the shot? Jones shot 85.7 percent from the line last season and 82.3 percent for his career, offering some hope that the underlying skill is there to eventually knock down 3s more consistently.
There are questions about his competition level, but in two combine games, he did his usual stat-stuffing thing with 13 rebounds and nine assists while earning nine free-throw attempts. He only shot 3 of 12 from the floor, including missing all five of his 3s, and it may be that his bully-ball style just doesn’t work at the next level. But at this point of the draft, he’s worth a shot.
48. Jalen Bridges
F BAYLOR Age: 23 Height: 6-7
Bridges isn’t much to look at athletically, but he’s 6-7 with a 6-10 wingspan, shot 41.2 percent from 3 last season and is just good enough on the ball to avert disaster if he’s asked to create something. While last year’s 3-point performance might have been a slight outlier, the southpaw profiles as a plus shooter who can occasionally score in the paint when he has an advantage, and that played out in his two combine games.
All of this pencils out as “third-best guy on his G League team” as often as not, especially since Bridges is already 23. Bridges is here in a sea of other older wing candidates. Among the group, he’s probably the least athletic but the most skilled, and his size is a plus if he can really play the three full-time. As always, I’m interested in any 6-7 guys with perimeter skills on draft night; while Bridges isn’t exactly the type of prospect who has you feverishly texting the GM immediately after the game, he has a decent chance to stick.
49. Terrence Shannon Jr.
F ILLINOIS Age: 23 Height: 6-6
Off the court, Shannon was found not guilty of charges of rape and aggravated sexual battery in a case that saw him briefly suspended from the Illinois team this past season. He turns 24 in July, which makes him superannuated even by the standards of this portion of the draft. I’ve been tracking the southpaw as a draft prospect since his freshman season at Texas Tech, and the on-court pros and cons remain largely the same: He’s an athletic wing who can get downhill to the rim, but he’s a shaky skill guy whose shooting comes and goes, he doesn’t see the floor well and he is extremely left-hand dominant.
Shannon, however, improved to 36.2 percent from 3 and 80.1 percent from the line this past season. The finishing package was too much for college opponents to handle: He shot 56.3 percent on 2s in Big Ten play, with a mammoth free-throw rate. That said, he’s not going to overwhelm NBA opponents like this; his other athletic indicators were pretty ordinary.
50. Pelle Larsson
G ARIZONA Age: 23 Height: 6-5
Another 23-year-old, Larsson’s Swedish passport could give him a leg up on getting drafted if he is willing to play overseas for a bit.
If he stays stateside, however, he also has a clear pathway to back-end rotation minutes because of his shooting. Watching Larsson shoot before games this past season was a treat; it’s all high arcs and clean swishes. He shot 42.6 percent from 3 in the actual games; his career marks of 39.7 percent from 3 and 81.3 percent from the line offer a massive sample size that he can stroke it.
The only question is why didn’t he do it more? Just 5.4 3-point attempts per 100 for a player with a stroke like his is baffling. Larsson can do other stuff, though; he shot 57.8 percent on 2s in Pac-12 games, with an unusually high assist rate for a wing and nearly two dimes for every turnover. He was a relatively low-usage player even in college, but he can be an efficient role player.
Defensively Larsson is more suspect, creating few events while still fouling like crazy and making little impact on the glass. Between that and his age, his upside likely tops out as a back-end role player, but he’s a reasonable pick once we get into the 40s.