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Just got this off ESPN insider. Found it pretty funny how everyone hypes or has hyped these players up over the last decade.
Football Outsiders analyzes the 25 most overrated players of the current decade, going back to 2000. Some of these comments will mention our advancedstatistics, including DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) -- which takes every play during the season and compares it to the league average based onsituation and opponent -- and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) -- which uses a similar method to measure a player's total value compared toa "replacement-level" player. These and other advanced stats are explained here.
1. DeShaun Foster: Foster is the platonic ideal of aboom-and-bust running back, who breaks one or two highlight runs a game and then spends the rest of the time leaving his unfortunate quarterback insecond-and-9 after second-and-9. Once a year he had a huge game against the Atlanta Falcons, andconvince everybody he was a good NFL starter for another 12 months. According to Football Outsiders numbers, he was below replacement level in four out of sixseasons. He only managed 4.3 yards per carry (average for running backs) in two seasons, and had no year with more than three rushing touchdowns. In 2007,Foster (3.5 yards per carry) had 100 more carries than DeAngelo Williams (5.0 yardsper carry). Good luck explaining that one.
2. Michael Vick: Even before Vick's sordid off-fieldactivities came to light, he was a disappointing No. 1 overall pick. Vick was a great runner, sure, but when he dropped back to pass, he turned into Tyler Thigpen or DerekAnderson, quarterbacks who are close to Vick's career averages of 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 1.4 touchdowns for every interception and 52.8 completionpercentage. His upside at this point is "Best Wildcat Quarterback," not best NFL quarterback.
3. Chris Chambers: Chambers' Pro Bowl selection in 2005 andhis ability to make highlight-reel catches gave him the reputation of a star wideout, but like a baseball player who needs a lot of outs to get his 100 RBIs,Chambers struggles to consistently catch the ball and run the short and medium routes that No. 1 wideouts have to do. In 2006, Chambers caught only 59 of the153 passes thrown to him; that's two full games of incomplete passes. Our numbers scored him with -300 DYAR in 2006, the lowest figure for a wide receiver since at least 1994. In fact, no other widereceiver has had a year below -200 DYAR.
4. Jamal Lewis: Lewis is remarkably inconsistent for a guy who issupposed to be a big, bruising back. When he rushed for more than 2,000 yards in 2003, he gained a lot of that yardage on a few long runs. The Ravens led theleague in rushing yardage that year, but were tied for ninth in rushing first downs. (As an added non-bonus, Lewis fumbled nine times that season.) Lewis hasnever finished in the top 10 in running back DVOA. Compare that to Marshall Faulk andPriest Holmes (five times) or LaDainian Tomlinson (three times).
5. Adam Vinatieri: Yes, he hit two Super Bowl-winning fieldgoals, but the main reason Vinatieri has the most clutch field goals of any kicker in recent history is that nobody else comes close in clutch field goalattempts. Since 1995, he's had 30 chances to tie or win a game in the final two minutes or overtime. Jason Elam is the only other kicker with more than 22 chances, and by the way, Elam hit ahigher percentage (89 percent vs. Vinatieri's 80 percent) from a longer average distance (38.7 yards vs. Vinatieri's 34.3). Vinatieri is perfect onclutch kicks in the playoffs, but so is the only other kicker with at least three playoff attempts (David Akers). Research has shown that the field goal percentages of kickers are virtuallyrandom from year to year, and Vinatieri is no different, going from 74 percent to 94 percent to 80 percent to 89 percent to 79 percent in five seasons(2003-2007). Kickoff ability is markedly consistent, though, and Vinatieri has never been impressive there.
6. Reggie Bush: While Bush was able to cover up his mistakes inidentifying holes and lanes in college, the superior athleticism of NFL defenders often leads to plays of minimal gain. The former USC star has made littleprogress as a runner since entering the league -- he has averaged less than four yards per carry for three straight seasons -- and while he's an effectivereturn man and receiver out of the backfield, the Saints didn't make him the second overall pick so he could become Dave Meggett.
7. Ty Law:The Jets signing Law last year was a far bigger storythan a player of Law's level should merit. At this point, Law's a fourth corner on a good team. Although he had 10 interceptions for the Jets in 2005,Law allowed a mediocre 7.2 yards per attempt and was 80th among corners in stopping players from gaining first downs. Law was certainly not overrated duringthe first few years of the decade, but as a physical corner, he has been a liability since the league re-emphasized the "Polian Rules" regardingbumping at the line.
8. Stephen Alexander: Alexander was a receiving-first tight endwho couldn't catch the ball. From 2001 to 2006, Alexander caught only 52 percent of intended passes (the average for tight ends is 64 percent), but teamskept putting him in the starting lineup.
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Tim Umphrey/Getty ImagesDante Hall is an inconsistent kick returner, and is only an average slot receiver, at best.
9. Dante Hall: Remember when Dante Hall was "theX-Factor," and ESPN The Magazine had him on the cover as a possible MVP candidate? It turned out he was subject to the same inconsistencies as the rest ofthe kickoff returners in the league, and he's an average slot receiver at best. Then Devin Hester came along a few years later, and did everything 20 times better than Halldid.
10. DeAngelo Hall: There is a difference between an athlete and afootball player, and Hall is a prime example. He looks amazing, thanks to his athletic skills (primarily speed), so you don't notice when guys catch 100yards worth of hooks and slants on him. Washington gave him a huge contract based on half a season, apparently ignoring the miserable player he was for Oaklandand the only slightly above-average player he was for Atlanta. (In his defense, our research has shown that there are only two players this decade whosesuccess on turnover returns is more than just statistical noise: Hall and EdReed.)
11. Keith Brooking: A good outside linebacker whose skillsdon't fit well as a 4-3 middle linebacker, but year after year he was forced back into the middle by injuries to other Falcons linebackers. His biggestproblems came in pass coverage, one reason why the Falcons ranked among the worst defenses against opposing tight ends for the entire decade.
12. Flozell Adams: The massive Cowboys left tackle is a goodrun-blocker, and has to go up against a steady stream of excellent pass-rushers in the NFC East, but his penalty totals are inexcusable. He's among theleague leaders in false starts every year, finishing second to Kwame Harris in 2008.It's a problem you normally associate with younger tackles, who either shape up as they get older or get sent out to pasture, but Adams is still areferee's delight at 34 years old.
13. Simeon Rice: Playing defensive end requires you to be able toboth rush the passer and stop the run. Rice was able to do the former, but he simply wasn't at the caliber of guys like Michael Strahan as a run defender. From 2001 to 2005, the Buccaneers were a great teamstopping runs at left end (where Rice would be making wide pass moves as the right defensive end) but frequently below-average on runs at left tackle (the holeRice would leave gaping to try and run around the opposing left tackle).
14. Terence Newman: Newman has been considered a franchisecornerback-in-waiting since he was selected fifth overall in the 2003 draft, but there's no evidence he has played at that level since then. Teamsdon't avoid him like they do Nnamdi Asomugha, nor does he pick up large totals ofpasses defended or intercepted to match players like Asante Samuel or Charles Woodson. He's a useful cornerback who's usually effective at keeping plays infront of him, sure, but he's paid like an elite guy, without having established a history of playing like one.
15. Ruben Brown: Certainly a good player but nine Pro Bowls?Playing for the Bills in the early part of the decade, Brown was basically making the Pro Bowl by default every year because the best guards were in theNFC.
16. Olin Kreutz: Like Brown, Kreutz is a fine player, who madethe Pro Bowl six straight years because the only other consistently good center in the NFC was Matt Birk. It isn't like the Bears are known as one of the league's bestpound-up-the-gut running teams.
17. Willis McGahee: He thinks of himself as a superstar back, butso far he's nowhere close. In five seasons, McGahee has never ranked higher than eighth in the NFL in rushing yardage or 14th in DYAR. He's also hadvery poor receiving numbers. Last year, for example, McGahee's 24 receptions included four that actually lost yardage and two others on third-and-eightplays that each came up six yards short of the sticks.
18. Nate Clements: Is he an above-average cornerback? Yes. Is heworth the roughly $7.25 million per year the 49ers agreed to pay him during the 2007 offseason, the largest contract ever given to a defensive player up tothat point? Um, no.
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Rich Kane/US PresswireEric Moulds was one of the league's top receivers from 1998-2000, but his metrics were below average for five straight years from 2001-05.
19. Eric Moulds: Moulds was the best receiver in the league in 1998 and one of the best in 1999 and 2000. He then spent most of thisdecade riding that reputation. FO metrics score him as below-average for five straight years from 2001 to 2005, but Moulds kept insisting he was a No. 1receiver, and the Buffalo coaches kept treating him like one. He finally accepted himself as an older, slower possession receiver when he went to Houston in2006, and then he had his best season in years, catching 74 percent of passes.
20. Freddie Jones: Jones is the jedi master of the three-catch,eight-yard stat line. From 2000 to 2004, the Football Outsiders DYAR ratings rank him 38th, 17th (his one good year with the 2001 Chargers), 43rd, 36th and 36th again, respectively.
21. Damien Woody: Woody was the starting center when the Patriotswon Super Bowl XXXVI. By 2003, he had moved to guard. He was going to go back to center when Detroit signed him to a big, free-agent contract, but he wasmediocre and troubles snapping the ball forced him to go back to guard. Last year, he signed with the Jets and everyone acted like the Jets were signing a ProBowler instead of an average (and declining) veteran, who is playing out of position at right tackle.
22. Roy Williams (safety): Because conventional wisdom now saysthat Williams is overrated, he is no longer overrated, but you may be so used to thinking of him as overrated that you forget when he actually was overratedfrom 2003 to 2007, in which, despite his subpar pass coverage skills, he somehow made five straight Pro Bowls over players like Adrian Wilson and MikeMinter.
23. Jammal Brown: Every offensive lineman occasionally gets stuckand has to drag down a blitzer to save his quarterback's skin. It happens. But for a player who made it to the Pro Bowl, as Brown did last year, you expectbetter than seven holding penalties in 15 games. It could be a one-year aberration, Brown had eight holds over his first three seasons, but no way can you sayan offensive lineman is superb at his craft when he's forced to employ his weapon of last resort once every other game.
24. Travis Henry: Henry had 4.1 yards per carry or less in fiveof his seven seasons (exceptions: 2002 and 2006), and his numbers would look even worse except that he had the advantage of playing a below-average schedule ofrun defenses in five of his seven seasons (exceptions: 2004 and 2005). He has never finished higher than 23rd among running backs in the Football OutsidersDVOA ratings.
(Honestly, we could have just forgotten the other positions and done a list of 25 boom-and-bust running backs whose impressive fantasy football totals wereprimarily the product of lots of carries instead of above-average performance. No other group of players comes close when it comes to being overrated.)
25. All Denver punters: Since 2000, Denver has finished 24th or lower in punting value seven of nine years. The other two years, theyfinished 14th and 16th, but Denver punters are never at the extreme bottom of the league rankings because of the effects of altitude. The average punter looksgreat when the thin air gives him extra yardage and extra hang time, which means that terrible punters look average. Can somebody tell the Denver frontoffice?
Aaron Schatz is an analyst for Football Outsiders.
In contrast they show the most underrated.
Football Outsiders analyzes the 25 most underrated players of the current decade, going back to 2000. Some of these comments will mention our advancedstatistics, including DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) -- which takes every play during the season and compares it to the league average based onsituation and opponent -- and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) -- which uses a similar method to measure a player's total value compared toa "replacement-level" player. These and other advanced stats are explained here.
1. Derrick Mason: Mason has seven different seasons with at least1,000 receiving yards and ranks seventh overall in total wide receiver DYAR for the decade. He ranked among the top 20 wide receivers in DYAR (total value) forfive straight years in Tennessee, then did it again last year in Baltimore. He also ranked among the top four wide receivers in DVOA (value per play) threetimes in four years (2000, 2001 and 2003), and he has put up an above average catch rate every single year this decade, including two years over 70 percent.Yet somehow, he's only made two Pro Bowls.
2. Matt Lepsis: Lepsis anchored the fabulous Denver offensiveline for five years at starting right tackle, starting left tackle for another four, but never made a Pro Bowl. Honestly, that's a little mind blowing.
3. Adrian Wilson: For three straight years (2004-2006) Wilsonmade his average run tackle closer to the line of scrimmage than any other safety. In 2005, he was the only safety responsible for at least 15 percent of histeam's total tackles. He also had eight sacks that year. He was the first safety since 2001 with more than five sacks in one season. For years, he was oneof the top two or three safeties against the run and the pass. The only reason we didn't put him at No. 1 is that recently he has started winning theacclamation he deserves.
4. Aaron Smith: A consistent performer in one of the league'smost consistently strong defenses. Twice, Smith had eight sacks in a season, despite being a 3-4 end whose job isn't to get to the quarterback. He'sonly made one Pro Bowl because apparently, Richard Seymour always fills the quota for3-4 ends who soak up blockers without impressive statistics.
5. Shaun O'Hara: O'Hara was fine as a guard in Cleveland,even better as a center in New York, holding down the middle of one of the best offensive lines in the league, but he never made the Pro Bowl until 2008 at age31.
6. Dan Koppen: This 2003 fifth-round pick went right into thestarting lineup, and won two Super Bowls in his first two seasons. The New England line has seen inconsistency at the tackle positions, but never at center.Still, Koppen has only one Pro Bowl selection, 2007.
7. Bobby Engram: The Third Down Machine. For most of this decade,nobody was better at moving the chains. Engram put up a 67 percent or better catch rate for six straight years, 2002-2007. He ranks 31st among wide receiversin receptions this decade, despite having only three seasons in which he started at least eight games.
8. Keith Bulluck: Bulluck is one stable anchor in a Tennesseedefense that has had up and down performances because of salary cap constraints. Year after year, Bulluck has led his team among outside linebackers in highestpercentage of defensive plays, with numbers similar to inside linebackers on other teams. He might be underrated because he rarely rushes the passer. Aaron Curry, this is your future.
9. Shawn Springs: Springs came out of Ohio State as the goodLord's gift to pass defense, and looked like a Hall of Famer in 1998-99. He got hurt in 2001, came back a little slower and suddenly everyone forgot abouthim. Fans often think of Springs as a guy who "used to be good," but the fact is that when healthy, he's still very good, and he's alwaysbeen very good. He's just not the Hall of Famer people originally expected, and he's much better at coverage than at making big plays (only 19interceptions since 2000).
10. London Fletcher: Tackle totals can be awfully misleading. Youhave to consider how many plays a defense is on the field, and the middle linebacker will almost always lead the team in tackles. Still, you have to giveFletcher some serious credit for leading his team in tackles for 10 straight seasons. He hasn't missed a start since 1999, but he's never made the ProBowl, partly because during his best years he was stuck behind Ray Lewis and Zach Thomas in the AFC pecking order.
11. John Abraham: Abraham ranks second in total sacks since 2000,behind Jason Taylor. He's had five seasons with 10 or more sacks, plus a sixthseason with 9½ in 12 games. He was a first-round pick and was later traded for a first-round pick, but he's oddly under the radar. He hasn't made thePro Bowl since 2004, even with 16½ sacks last season.
12. Al Wilson: Yes, he was a Pro Bowl regular, but few fans knewwho he was. Perhaps he needed to jazz up his name with more apostrophes (D'Al Wil'son?) or let NFL Films mic him up every other game as it does withRay Lewis. The Denver defense has completely imploded since a neck injury ended Wilson's career in 2006.
13. Chad Pennington: The NFL's version of Bret Saberhagen,Pennington always has been one of the league's best quarterbacks when healthy. The problem is that he only seems to be healthy every other year. Penningtonranked among the most valuable quarterbacks, according to Football Outsiders' DYAR stats, four times: 2002 (second), 2004 (10th), 2006 (seventh) and 2008(sixth). That sound you hear is the 2009 Dolphins saying "Uh-oh."
14. Torry Holt: Everybody knows he's good, and he has madeseven Pro Bowls. But at no time this decade did conventional wisdom hold that Holt was the best wide receiver in football, and for some reason nobody includeshim in the conversation, even though he leads all receivers in catches and yards this decade and is fourth in total receiving value (by DYAR).
15. Brian Westbrook: People finally have realized how good he isand how important he is to the Eagles' offense, but guess what: he has been this good the whole time. In fact, he's been better in the past than hisrecent statistics show. Last year, Westbrook had career lows in both yards per carry and yards per reception, but he ranked among the top three running backsin our DVOA stats (value per play) three times -- 2003, 2006 and 2007 -- and ranked among the top five running backs in receiving DYAR (total value) for fivestraight seasons.
16. Kelly Gregg: Nose tackle is an underrated position ingeneral, but is extremely important to the success of strong 3-4 defenses. Guys like Casey Hampton, VinceWilfork and Jamal Williams have received that all-expenses-paid trip to Hawaiiand the accolades that go with it, but in Baltimore, Gregg spent six years quietly holding down the middle for one of the league's best run defenses andnever made a Pro Bowl, partly because, with the 3-4 primarily an AFC-only scheme for most of the decade, he had to stand in line behind those other equallydeserving players.
17. David Akers: If we're making an all-decade team, Akersshould be the kicker, not Adam Vinatieri. No kicker has been as consistent and aswell-rounded when it comes to both field goals and kickoffs than Akers. Philadelphia ranked 11th or higher in both placekicking and kickoffs every year from2000-2004. For the decade, we estimate that Philadelphia has gained 31.4 points on field goals, compared to the average team, second only to Baltimore, and65.0 points on kickoffs, second only to Atlanta.
18. Antonio Pierce: For an undrafted free agents to make it inthe league, they need to get an edge any way they can. In Pierce's case, it's maniacal film study that leads to superior preparation and the ability toovercome his athletic limitations. The Giants defense rose from 21st to 11th in our DVOA ratings after his arrival in 2005, and has remained in the upper halfof the league ever since. His single-handed read and stop of a screen pass against three Green Bay blockers in the 2007 NFC Championship Game was one of theplays of the decade.
19. Brad Meester: This second-round draft pick went straight intothe starting lineup in 2000, and has been a consistent lineman for some excellent Jacksonville running games. He has never made the Pro Bowl.
20. Moe Williams: Williams was an astonishingly-underratedsituational player, who excelled both running and receiving. His best year was 2002, in which he ranked fifth among all running backs in rushing value (byDYAR) on only 84 carries. That year, he averaged 7.9 yards on first-and-10 plays and converted 18 of his 24 carries in power situations (third down, fourthdown or goal line, with 1-2 yards to go). The next year, 2003, was the only season in which he started more than two games, and he had 644 receiving yards,second only to Priest Holmes.
21. Gary Brackett: This undrafted free agent from Rutgers turnedout to be the perfect middle linebacker for the Tampa-2 defense. Indianapolis finished 13th or lower in defensive DVOA every single season from 1994 through2004, but has been in the top 10 three times since Brackett entered the starting lineup in 2005. He's still waiting to make his first trip to Hawaii.
[h4]2004 Packers With Grady Jackson[/h4] [table][tr][th=""]Yd/Play[/th] [th=""]DVOA[/th] [th=""]DVOA Rank[/th] [/tr][tr][td]4.96[/td] [td]-21.6 %[/td] [td]5[/td] [/tr][tr][td]3.96[/td] [td]-27.3[/td] [td]2[/td] [/tr][/table]
22. Grady Jackson: Halfway through the 2003 season, theNew Orleans Saints suspended Jackson for "conduct detrimental to the team" and thenreleased him. Green Bay picked him up off waivers, and we'll let the numbers tell the rest of the story:
[h4]2004 Packers Without Grady Jackson[/h4] [table][tr][th=""]Yd/Play[/th] [th=""]DVOA[/th] [th=""]DVOA Rank[/th] [/tr][tr][td]5.98[/td] [td]-3.7 %[/td] [td]15[/td] [/tr][tr][td]4.58[/td] [td]-0.1[/td] [td]23[/td] [/tr][/table]
He hasn't been quite that important over the last couple years, but there's no doubt the guy makes an impact.
23. Tarik Glenn: Glenn held down left tackle for the best offenseof the decade, but didn't make the Pro Bowl until 2004. Even though he made three Pro Bowls, nobody ever included him in the discussion of "best lefttackle in football."
24. Brian Finneran: His stats aren't that impressive untilyou look at them compared to the rest of his team. Finneran was the best receiver in Atlanta until Roddy White finally developed. Year after year, the Falcons drafted or traded for youngerguys, gave them the starting jobs and benched them when Finneran was clearly outplaying them. In 2005, Michael Vick completed 59 percent of his passes toFinneran, 46 percent to his other wideouts. That was nothing compared to 2004 as Vick completed 70 percent of his passes to Finneran and only 45 percent to hisother wideouts.
25. Trent Green: According to Football Outsiders' DYAR stats,Trent Green is one of the five most valuable quarterbacks of the decade, behind PeytonManning, Tom Brady, Brett Favre and DrewBrees. He ranked among the top three quarterbacks for three years, 2002 to 2004, and was fifth in 2005. Green was also an excellent scrambler, who rarelytook off unless he could get a first down.
Aaron Schatz is an analyst for Football Outsiders.
Football Outsiders analyzes the 25 most overrated players of the current decade, going back to 2000. Some of these comments will mention our advancedstatistics, including DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) -- which takes every play during the season and compares it to the league average based onsituation and opponent -- and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) -- which uses a similar method to measure a player's total value compared toa "replacement-level" player. These and other advanced stats are explained here.
1. DeShaun Foster: Foster is the platonic ideal of aboom-and-bust running back, who breaks one or two highlight runs a game and then spends the rest of the time leaving his unfortunate quarterback insecond-and-9 after second-and-9. Once a year he had a huge game against the Atlanta Falcons, andconvince everybody he was a good NFL starter for another 12 months. According to Football Outsiders numbers, he was below replacement level in four out of sixseasons. He only managed 4.3 yards per carry (average for running backs) in two seasons, and had no year with more than three rushing touchdowns. In 2007,Foster (3.5 yards per carry) had 100 more carries than DeAngelo Williams (5.0 yardsper carry). Good luck explaining that one.
2. Michael Vick: Even before Vick's sordid off-fieldactivities came to light, he was a disappointing No. 1 overall pick. Vick was a great runner, sure, but when he dropped back to pass, he turned into Tyler Thigpen or DerekAnderson, quarterbacks who are close to Vick's career averages of 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 1.4 touchdowns for every interception and 52.8 completionpercentage. His upside at this point is "Best Wildcat Quarterback," not best NFL quarterback.
3. Chris Chambers: Chambers' Pro Bowl selection in 2005 andhis ability to make highlight-reel catches gave him the reputation of a star wideout, but like a baseball player who needs a lot of outs to get his 100 RBIs,Chambers struggles to consistently catch the ball and run the short and medium routes that No. 1 wideouts have to do. In 2006, Chambers caught only 59 of the153 passes thrown to him; that's two full games of incomplete passes. Our numbers scored him with -300 DYAR in 2006, the lowest figure for a wide receiver since at least 1994. In fact, no other widereceiver has had a year below -200 DYAR.
4. Jamal Lewis: Lewis is remarkably inconsistent for a guy who issupposed to be a big, bruising back. When he rushed for more than 2,000 yards in 2003, he gained a lot of that yardage on a few long runs. The Ravens led theleague in rushing yardage that year, but were tied for ninth in rushing first downs. (As an added non-bonus, Lewis fumbled nine times that season.) Lewis hasnever finished in the top 10 in running back DVOA. Compare that to Marshall Faulk andPriest Holmes (five times) or LaDainian Tomlinson (three times).
5. Adam Vinatieri: Yes, he hit two Super Bowl-winning fieldgoals, but the main reason Vinatieri has the most clutch field goals of any kicker in recent history is that nobody else comes close in clutch field goalattempts. Since 1995, he's had 30 chances to tie or win a game in the final two minutes or overtime. Jason Elam is the only other kicker with more than 22 chances, and by the way, Elam hit ahigher percentage (89 percent vs. Vinatieri's 80 percent) from a longer average distance (38.7 yards vs. Vinatieri's 34.3). Vinatieri is perfect onclutch kicks in the playoffs, but so is the only other kicker with at least three playoff attempts (David Akers). Research has shown that the field goal percentages of kickers are virtuallyrandom from year to year, and Vinatieri is no different, going from 74 percent to 94 percent to 80 percent to 89 percent to 79 percent in five seasons(2003-2007). Kickoff ability is markedly consistent, though, and Vinatieri has never been impressive there.
6. Reggie Bush: While Bush was able to cover up his mistakes inidentifying holes and lanes in college, the superior athleticism of NFL defenders often leads to plays of minimal gain. The former USC star has made littleprogress as a runner since entering the league -- he has averaged less than four yards per carry for three straight seasons -- and while he's an effectivereturn man and receiver out of the backfield, the Saints didn't make him the second overall pick so he could become Dave Meggett.
7. Ty Law:The Jets signing Law last year was a far bigger storythan a player of Law's level should merit. At this point, Law's a fourth corner on a good team. Although he had 10 interceptions for the Jets in 2005,Law allowed a mediocre 7.2 yards per attempt and was 80th among corners in stopping players from gaining first downs. Law was certainly not overrated duringthe first few years of the decade, but as a physical corner, he has been a liability since the league re-emphasized the "Polian Rules" regardingbumping at the line.
8. Stephen Alexander: Alexander was a receiving-first tight endwho couldn't catch the ball. From 2001 to 2006, Alexander caught only 52 percent of intended passes (the average for tight ends is 64 percent), but teamskept putting him in the starting lineup.
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Tim Umphrey/Getty ImagesDante Hall is an inconsistent kick returner, and is only an average slot receiver, at best.
9. Dante Hall: Remember when Dante Hall was "theX-Factor," and ESPN The Magazine had him on the cover as a possible MVP candidate? It turned out he was subject to the same inconsistencies as the rest ofthe kickoff returners in the league, and he's an average slot receiver at best. Then Devin Hester came along a few years later, and did everything 20 times better than Halldid.
10. DeAngelo Hall: There is a difference between an athlete and afootball player, and Hall is a prime example. He looks amazing, thanks to his athletic skills (primarily speed), so you don't notice when guys catch 100yards worth of hooks and slants on him. Washington gave him a huge contract based on half a season, apparently ignoring the miserable player he was for Oaklandand the only slightly above-average player he was for Atlanta. (In his defense, our research has shown that there are only two players this decade whosesuccess on turnover returns is more than just statistical noise: Hall and EdReed.)
11. Keith Brooking: A good outside linebacker whose skillsdon't fit well as a 4-3 middle linebacker, but year after year he was forced back into the middle by injuries to other Falcons linebackers. His biggestproblems came in pass coverage, one reason why the Falcons ranked among the worst defenses against opposing tight ends for the entire decade.
12. Flozell Adams: The massive Cowboys left tackle is a goodrun-blocker, and has to go up against a steady stream of excellent pass-rushers in the NFC East, but his penalty totals are inexcusable. He's among theleague leaders in false starts every year, finishing second to Kwame Harris in 2008.It's a problem you normally associate with younger tackles, who either shape up as they get older or get sent out to pasture, but Adams is still areferee's delight at 34 years old.
13. Simeon Rice: Playing defensive end requires you to be able toboth rush the passer and stop the run. Rice was able to do the former, but he simply wasn't at the caliber of guys like Michael Strahan as a run defender. From 2001 to 2005, the Buccaneers were a great teamstopping runs at left end (where Rice would be making wide pass moves as the right defensive end) but frequently below-average on runs at left tackle (the holeRice would leave gaping to try and run around the opposing left tackle).
14. Terence Newman: Newman has been considered a franchisecornerback-in-waiting since he was selected fifth overall in the 2003 draft, but there's no evidence he has played at that level since then. Teamsdon't avoid him like they do Nnamdi Asomugha, nor does he pick up large totals ofpasses defended or intercepted to match players like Asante Samuel or Charles Woodson. He's a useful cornerback who's usually effective at keeping plays infront of him, sure, but he's paid like an elite guy, without having established a history of playing like one.
15. Ruben Brown: Certainly a good player but nine Pro Bowls?Playing for the Bills in the early part of the decade, Brown was basically making the Pro Bowl by default every year because the best guards were in theNFC.
16. Olin Kreutz: Like Brown, Kreutz is a fine player, who madethe Pro Bowl six straight years because the only other consistently good center in the NFC was Matt Birk. It isn't like the Bears are known as one of the league's bestpound-up-the-gut running teams.
17. Willis McGahee: He thinks of himself as a superstar back, butso far he's nowhere close. In five seasons, McGahee has never ranked higher than eighth in the NFL in rushing yardage or 14th in DYAR. He's also hadvery poor receiving numbers. Last year, for example, McGahee's 24 receptions included four that actually lost yardage and two others on third-and-eightplays that each came up six yards short of the sticks.
18. Nate Clements: Is he an above-average cornerback? Yes. Is heworth the roughly $7.25 million per year the 49ers agreed to pay him during the 2007 offseason, the largest contract ever given to a defensive player up tothat point? Um, no.
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Rich Kane/US PresswireEric Moulds was one of the league's top receivers from 1998-2000, but his metrics were below average for five straight years from 2001-05.
19. Eric Moulds: Moulds was the best receiver in the league in 1998 and one of the best in 1999 and 2000. He then spent most of thisdecade riding that reputation. FO metrics score him as below-average for five straight years from 2001 to 2005, but Moulds kept insisting he was a No. 1receiver, and the Buffalo coaches kept treating him like one. He finally accepted himself as an older, slower possession receiver when he went to Houston in2006, and then he had his best season in years, catching 74 percent of passes.
20. Freddie Jones: Jones is the jedi master of the three-catch,eight-yard stat line. From 2000 to 2004, the Football Outsiders DYAR ratings rank him 38th, 17th (his one good year with the 2001 Chargers), 43rd, 36th and 36th again, respectively.
21. Damien Woody: Woody was the starting center when the Patriotswon Super Bowl XXXVI. By 2003, he had moved to guard. He was going to go back to center when Detroit signed him to a big, free-agent contract, but he wasmediocre and troubles snapping the ball forced him to go back to guard. Last year, he signed with the Jets and everyone acted like the Jets were signing a ProBowler instead of an average (and declining) veteran, who is playing out of position at right tackle.
22. Roy Williams (safety): Because conventional wisdom now saysthat Williams is overrated, he is no longer overrated, but you may be so used to thinking of him as overrated that you forget when he actually was overratedfrom 2003 to 2007, in which, despite his subpar pass coverage skills, he somehow made five straight Pro Bowls over players like Adrian Wilson and MikeMinter.
23. Jammal Brown: Every offensive lineman occasionally gets stuckand has to drag down a blitzer to save his quarterback's skin. It happens. But for a player who made it to the Pro Bowl, as Brown did last year, you expectbetter than seven holding penalties in 15 games. It could be a one-year aberration, Brown had eight holds over his first three seasons, but no way can you sayan offensive lineman is superb at his craft when he's forced to employ his weapon of last resort once every other game.
24. Travis Henry: Henry had 4.1 yards per carry or less in fiveof his seven seasons (exceptions: 2002 and 2006), and his numbers would look even worse except that he had the advantage of playing a below-average schedule ofrun defenses in five of his seven seasons (exceptions: 2004 and 2005). He has never finished higher than 23rd among running backs in the Football OutsidersDVOA ratings.
(Honestly, we could have just forgotten the other positions and done a list of 25 boom-and-bust running backs whose impressive fantasy football totals wereprimarily the product of lots of carries instead of above-average performance. No other group of players comes close when it comes to being overrated.)
25. All Denver punters: Since 2000, Denver has finished 24th or lower in punting value seven of nine years. The other two years, theyfinished 14th and 16th, but Denver punters are never at the extreme bottom of the league rankings because of the effects of altitude. The average punter looksgreat when the thin air gives him extra yardage and extra hang time, which means that terrible punters look average. Can somebody tell the Denver frontoffice?
Aaron Schatz is an analyst for Football Outsiders.
In contrast they show the most underrated.
Football Outsiders analyzes the 25 most underrated players of the current decade, going back to 2000. Some of these comments will mention our advancedstatistics, including DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) -- which takes every play during the season and compares it to the league average based onsituation and opponent -- and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) -- which uses a similar method to measure a player's total value compared toa "replacement-level" player. These and other advanced stats are explained here.
1. Derrick Mason: Mason has seven different seasons with at least1,000 receiving yards and ranks seventh overall in total wide receiver DYAR for the decade. He ranked among the top 20 wide receivers in DYAR (total value) forfive straight years in Tennessee, then did it again last year in Baltimore. He also ranked among the top four wide receivers in DVOA (value per play) threetimes in four years (2000, 2001 and 2003), and he has put up an above average catch rate every single year this decade, including two years over 70 percent.Yet somehow, he's only made two Pro Bowls.
2. Matt Lepsis: Lepsis anchored the fabulous Denver offensiveline for five years at starting right tackle, starting left tackle for another four, but never made a Pro Bowl. Honestly, that's a little mind blowing.
3. Adrian Wilson: For three straight years (2004-2006) Wilsonmade his average run tackle closer to the line of scrimmage than any other safety. In 2005, he was the only safety responsible for at least 15 percent of histeam's total tackles. He also had eight sacks that year. He was the first safety since 2001 with more than five sacks in one season. For years, he was oneof the top two or three safeties against the run and the pass. The only reason we didn't put him at No. 1 is that recently he has started winning theacclamation he deserves.
4. Aaron Smith: A consistent performer in one of the league'smost consistently strong defenses. Twice, Smith had eight sacks in a season, despite being a 3-4 end whose job isn't to get to the quarterback. He'sonly made one Pro Bowl because apparently, Richard Seymour always fills the quota for3-4 ends who soak up blockers without impressive statistics.
5. Shaun O'Hara: O'Hara was fine as a guard in Cleveland,even better as a center in New York, holding down the middle of one of the best offensive lines in the league, but he never made the Pro Bowl until 2008 at age31.
6. Dan Koppen: This 2003 fifth-round pick went right into thestarting lineup, and won two Super Bowls in his first two seasons. The New England line has seen inconsistency at the tackle positions, but never at center.Still, Koppen has only one Pro Bowl selection, 2007.
7. Bobby Engram: The Third Down Machine. For most of this decade,nobody was better at moving the chains. Engram put up a 67 percent or better catch rate for six straight years, 2002-2007. He ranks 31st among wide receiversin receptions this decade, despite having only three seasons in which he started at least eight games.
8. Keith Bulluck: Bulluck is one stable anchor in a Tennesseedefense that has had up and down performances because of salary cap constraints. Year after year, Bulluck has led his team among outside linebackers in highestpercentage of defensive plays, with numbers similar to inside linebackers on other teams. He might be underrated because he rarely rushes the passer. Aaron Curry, this is your future.
9. Shawn Springs: Springs came out of Ohio State as the goodLord's gift to pass defense, and looked like a Hall of Famer in 1998-99. He got hurt in 2001, came back a little slower and suddenly everyone forgot abouthim. Fans often think of Springs as a guy who "used to be good," but the fact is that when healthy, he's still very good, and he's alwaysbeen very good. He's just not the Hall of Famer people originally expected, and he's much better at coverage than at making big plays (only 19interceptions since 2000).
10. London Fletcher: Tackle totals can be awfully misleading. Youhave to consider how many plays a defense is on the field, and the middle linebacker will almost always lead the team in tackles. Still, you have to giveFletcher some serious credit for leading his team in tackles for 10 straight seasons. He hasn't missed a start since 1999, but he's never made the ProBowl, partly because during his best years he was stuck behind Ray Lewis and Zach Thomas in the AFC pecking order.
11. John Abraham: Abraham ranks second in total sacks since 2000,behind Jason Taylor. He's had five seasons with 10 or more sacks, plus a sixthseason with 9½ in 12 games. He was a first-round pick and was later traded for a first-round pick, but he's oddly under the radar. He hasn't made thePro Bowl since 2004, even with 16½ sacks last season.
12. Al Wilson: Yes, he was a Pro Bowl regular, but few fans knewwho he was. Perhaps he needed to jazz up his name with more apostrophes (D'Al Wil'son?) or let NFL Films mic him up every other game as it does withRay Lewis. The Denver defense has completely imploded since a neck injury ended Wilson's career in 2006.
13. Chad Pennington: The NFL's version of Bret Saberhagen,Pennington always has been one of the league's best quarterbacks when healthy. The problem is that he only seems to be healthy every other year. Penningtonranked among the most valuable quarterbacks, according to Football Outsiders' DYAR stats, four times: 2002 (second), 2004 (10th), 2006 (seventh) and 2008(sixth). That sound you hear is the 2009 Dolphins saying "Uh-oh."
14. Torry Holt: Everybody knows he's good, and he has madeseven Pro Bowls. But at no time this decade did conventional wisdom hold that Holt was the best wide receiver in football, and for some reason nobody includeshim in the conversation, even though he leads all receivers in catches and yards this decade and is fourth in total receiving value (by DYAR).
15. Brian Westbrook: People finally have realized how good he isand how important he is to the Eagles' offense, but guess what: he has been this good the whole time. In fact, he's been better in the past than hisrecent statistics show. Last year, Westbrook had career lows in both yards per carry and yards per reception, but he ranked among the top three running backsin our DVOA stats (value per play) three times -- 2003, 2006 and 2007 -- and ranked among the top five running backs in receiving DYAR (total value) for fivestraight seasons.
16. Kelly Gregg: Nose tackle is an underrated position ingeneral, but is extremely important to the success of strong 3-4 defenses. Guys like Casey Hampton, VinceWilfork and Jamal Williams have received that all-expenses-paid trip to Hawaiiand the accolades that go with it, but in Baltimore, Gregg spent six years quietly holding down the middle for one of the league's best run defenses andnever made a Pro Bowl, partly because, with the 3-4 primarily an AFC-only scheme for most of the decade, he had to stand in line behind those other equallydeserving players.
17. David Akers: If we're making an all-decade team, Akersshould be the kicker, not Adam Vinatieri. No kicker has been as consistent and aswell-rounded when it comes to both field goals and kickoffs than Akers. Philadelphia ranked 11th or higher in both placekicking and kickoffs every year from2000-2004. For the decade, we estimate that Philadelphia has gained 31.4 points on field goals, compared to the average team, second only to Baltimore, and65.0 points on kickoffs, second only to Atlanta.
18. Antonio Pierce: For an undrafted free agents to make it inthe league, they need to get an edge any way they can. In Pierce's case, it's maniacal film study that leads to superior preparation and the ability toovercome his athletic limitations. The Giants defense rose from 21st to 11th in our DVOA ratings after his arrival in 2005, and has remained in the upper halfof the league ever since. His single-handed read and stop of a screen pass against three Green Bay blockers in the 2007 NFC Championship Game was one of theplays of the decade.
19. Brad Meester: This second-round draft pick went straight intothe starting lineup in 2000, and has been a consistent lineman for some excellent Jacksonville running games. He has never made the Pro Bowl.
20. Moe Williams: Williams was an astonishingly-underratedsituational player, who excelled both running and receiving. His best year was 2002, in which he ranked fifth among all running backs in rushing value (byDYAR) on only 84 carries. That year, he averaged 7.9 yards on first-and-10 plays and converted 18 of his 24 carries in power situations (third down, fourthdown or goal line, with 1-2 yards to go). The next year, 2003, was the only season in which he started more than two games, and he had 644 receiving yards,second only to Priest Holmes.
21. Gary Brackett: This undrafted free agent from Rutgers turnedout to be the perfect middle linebacker for the Tampa-2 defense. Indianapolis finished 13th or lower in defensive DVOA every single season from 1994 through2004, but has been in the top 10 three times since Brackett entered the starting lineup in 2005. He's still waiting to make his first trip to Hawaii.
[h4]2004 Packers With Grady Jackson[/h4] [table][tr][th=""]Yd/Play[/th] [th=""]DVOA[/th] [th=""]DVOA Rank[/th] [/tr][tr][td]4.96[/td] [td]-21.6 %[/td] [td]5[/td] [/tr][tr][td]3.96[/td] [td]-27.3[/td] [td]2[/td] [/tr][/table]
22. Grady Jackson: Halfway through the 2003 season, theNew Orleans Saints suspended Jackson for "conduct detrimental to the team" and thenreleased him. Green Bay picked him up off waivers, and we'll let the numbers tell the rest of the story:
[h4]2004 Packers Without Grady Jackson[/h4] [table][tr][th=""]Yd/Play[/th] [th=""]DVOA[/th] [th=""]DVOA Rank[/th] [/tr][tr][td]5.98[/td] [td]-3.7 %[/td] [td]15[/td] [/tr][tr][td]4.58[/td] [td]-0.1[/td] [td]23[/td] [/tr][/table]
He hasn't been quite that important over the last couple years, but there's no doubt the guy makes an impact.
23. Tarik Glenn: Glenn held down left tackle for the best offenseof the decade, but didn't make the Pro Bowl until 2004. Even though he made three Pro Bowls, nobody ever included him in the discussion of "best lefttackle in football."
24. Brian Finneran: His stats aren't that impressive untilyou look at them compared to the rest of his team. Finneran was the best receiver in Atlanta until Roddy White finally developed. Year after year, the Falcons drafted or traded for youngerguys, gave them the starting jobs and benched them when Finneran was clearly outplaying them. In 2005, Michael Vick completed 59 percent of his passes toFinneran, 46 percent to his other wideouts. That was nothing compared to 2004 as Vick completed 70 percent of his passes to Finneran and only 45 percent to hisother wideouts.
25. Trent Green: According to Football Outsiders' DYAR stats,Trent Green is one of the five most valuable quarterbacks of the decade, behind PeytonManning, Tom Brady, Brett Favre and DrewBrees. He ranked among the top three quarterbacks for three years, 2002 to 2004, and was fifth in 2005. Green was also an excellent scrambler, who rarelytook off unless he could get a first down.
Aaron Schatz is an analyst for Football Outsiders.
