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Damn, You updating this thread down to the 0.01% percentile huh?
ELECTION DAY 2008:........... Barack Obama, the next President of the United States of America
- Thread in 'Lounge Archive' Thread starter Started by tbone95860,
- Start date
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Follow up to your remark....Originally Posted by SunDOOBIE
Is it just me or did she lose her spotlight real fast? I bet the ratings tonight will be minimal at best.Originally Posted by TBONE95860
Watch Sarah Palin on Fox News' 'Hannity & Colmes' Tonight at 9 p.m. ET
Part 1 tonight
Part 2 tomorrow night
50 to 60 minutes of video footage (in contrast Obama on O'Reilly was only 30 minute)
I'm sure lots of you will tune in since it's Fox News....
[h3]Exclusive: Sarah Palin[/h3]
Sean Hannity sits down with the GOP vice presidential nominee, Wednesday night at 9 p.m. ET. Watch a preview
CABLE NEWS RACE, WEDNESDAY, SEPT 17
FOXNEWS HANNITY/COLMES 4,921,000
FOXNEWS O'REILLY 3,839,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 3,561,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 2,184,000
FOXNEWS HUME 2,108,000
MSNBC OLBERMANN 1,854,000
CNN COOPER 1,719,000
MSNBC RACHEL MADDOW 1,716,000
CNN KING 1,646,000
MSNBC HARBALL 1,145,000
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[h3]
[/h3][h3]Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection[/h3]
On the strength of an abundance of state and national polling, Barack Obama has retaken the lead in our Electoral College projection. Our model now forecastshim to win the election 61.2 percent of the time; it also gives him a slight, half-point advantage in the popular vote. Yesterday, Obama was projected to winthe Electoral College just 45 percent of the time, so this is a rather dramatic move upward.
How can the numbers move so sharply in just 24 hours?I have tweaked the model slightly at a couple of pointsrecently in order to make it more sensitive to new information. But these adjustments are very minor, and their effects are fairly trivial. The principalreasons these numbers have become more volatile are twofold. Firstly, we're finally getting into crunch time. The closer we get to the election, thesmaller the true margins of error in the polls, so relatively small advantages can become more meaningful. But secondly, we have a lot more data to look at. If Barack Obama looks like he's moved up a point or two between two or three polls, that may not beparticularly meaningful, and our model will tend to treat it as noise. If, on the other hand, Obama appears to have gained a point or two between 20 or 30 polls, which is what we're getting on a daily basis nowadays, we can say with more certainty that a real shift in theelectorate has occurred.
This is not to say, of course, that every single poll contains good news for Obama. At least two current national polls (GWU/Battleground and Economist/YouGov)still have McCain ahead, and a couple more have the candidates tied. And there are nuggets of good news for McCain in some of the state polling:
Which of these numbers will McCain partisans like? The +3 from ARG in New Hampshire. The +7 in Virginia from National Journal. The virtual ties in Wisconsin,Pennsylvania and Iowa in the Big Ten poll. The +6 in Florida from SuvreyUSA.
And which will Obama partisans like? The +10 in Colorado from InsiderAdvantage (very probably an outlier, but outliers are OK when we're able to averagethem in with other polls). The +3 in Indiana from Ann Selzer (although remember that Selzer polls have had a rather strong Democratic lean so far this cycle).Two polls showing Ohio drawing to a tie, and the same in Florida. The Michigan number from the Big Ten survey. The Oregon number from the Portland Tribune.Both of the New Mexico numbers. Maybe the Rasmussen number in New Jersey.
That is, by my count, 10 or 11 or "good" state polls for Obama and 5 or 6 for McCain. The job of our model is to see the signal through the noise.There is quite a bit of noise, with so many pollsters in the field in so many different states, and so many different factors affecting voter preferences.Eerything from national news events to advertising blasts in individual states will impact these numbers -- a really heavy ad buy in a particular state cansometimes move the numbers there by a couple of points, often only for no more than 24 hours.
But there is also some signal, and today it points toward Obama gaining a tangible amount of ground.
[/h3][h3]Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection[/h3]
On the strength of an abundance of state and national polling, Barack Obama has retaken the lead in our Electoral College projection. Our model now forecastshim to win the election 61.2 percent of the time; it also gives him a slight, half-point advantage in the popular vote. Yesterday, Obama was projected to winthe Electoral College just 45 percent of the time, so this is a rather dramatic move upward.
How can the numbers move so sharply in just 24 hours?I have tweaked the model slightly at a couple of pointsrecently in order to make it more sensitive to new information. But these adjustments are very minor, and their effects are fairly trivial. The principalreasons these numbers have become more volatile are twofold. Firstly, we're finally getting into crunch time. The closer we get to the election, thesmaller the true margins of error in the polls, so relatively small advantages can become more meaningful. But secondly, we have a lot more data to look at. If Barack Obama looks like he's moved up a point or two between two or three polls, that may not beparticularly meaningful, and our model will tend to treat it as noise. If, on the other hand, Obama appears to have gained a point or two between 20 or 30 polls, which is what we're getting on a daily basis nowadays, we can say with more certainty that a real shift in theelectorate has occurred.
This is not to say, of course, that every single poll contains good news for Obama. At least two current national polls (GWU/Battleground and Economist/YouGov)still have McCain ahead, and a couple more have the candidates tied. And there are nuggets of good news for McCain in some of the state polling:
Which of these numbers will McCain partisans like? The +3 from ARG in New Hampshire. The +7 in Virginia from National Journal. The virtual ties in Wisconsin,Pennsylvania and Iowa in the Big Ten poll. The +6 in Florida from SuvreyUSA.
And which will Obama partisans like? The +10 in Colorado from InsiderAdvantage (very probably an outlier, but outliers are OK when we're able to averagethem in with other polls). The +3 in Indiana from Ann Selzer (although remember that Selzer polls have had a rather strong Democratic lean so far this cycle).Two polls showing Ohio drawing to a tie, and the same in Florida. The Michigan number from the Big Ten survey. The Oregon number from the Portland Tribune.Both of the New Mexico numbers. Maybe the Rasmussen number in New Jersey.
That is, by my count, 10 or 11 or "good" state polls for Obama and 5 or 6 for McCain. The job of our model is to see the signal through the noise.There is quite a bit of noise, with so many pollsters in the field in so many different states, and so many different factors affecting voter preferences.Eerything from national news events to advertising blasts in individual states will impact these numbers -- a really heavy ad buy in a particular state cansometimes move the numbers there by a couple of points, often only for no more than 24 hours.
But there is also some signal, and today it points toward Obama gaining a tangible amount of ground.
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What's with the sudden turn in poll projections?
xtapolapacetl
Banned
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Wow, I just saw a yahoo story about a poll that shows that more people believe that McCain will be more likely to change the economy than Obama. WTH is that? Ithought the economy was Obama's strength..
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Can you post the ratings for that Gibson interview and compare the difference?Originally Posted by TBONE95860
Follow up to your remark....Originally Posted by SunDOOBIE
Is it just me or did she lose her spotlight real fast? I bet the ratings tonight will be minimal at best.Originally Posted by TBONE95860
Watch Sarah Palin on Fox News' 'Hannity & Colmes' Tonight at 9 p.m. ET
Part 1 tonight
Part 2 tomorrow night
50 to 60 minutes of video footage (in contrast Obama on O'Reilly was only 30 minute)
I'm sure lots of you will tune in since it's Fox News....
[h3]Exclusive: Sarah Palin[/h3]
Sean Hannity sits down with the GOP vice presidential nominee, Wednesday night at 9 p.m. ET. Watch a preview
CABLE NEWS RACE, WEDNESDAY, SEPT 17
FOXNEWS HANNITY/COLMES 4,921,000
FOXNEWS O'REILLY 3,839,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 3,561,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 2,184,000
FOXNEWS HUME 2,108,000
MSNBC OLBERMANN 1,854,000
CNN COOPER 1,719,000
MSNBC RACHEL MADDOW 1,716,000
CNN KING 1,646,000
MSNBC HARBALL 1,145,000
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The actual issues...
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No.Originally Posted by Barack 0drama
The actual issues...
It's the economy.
People associate and blame the economy doing bad with the President in office, a Republican....
Then look at McCain, who is a Republican.
Is it just me or did she lose her spotlight real fast? I bet the ratings tonight will be minimal at best.Originally Posted by SunDOOBIE
TBONE95860 wrote:
SunDOOBIE wrote:
TBONE95860 wrote:
Watch Sarah Palin on Fox News' 'Hannity & Colmes' Tonight at 9 p.m. ET
Part 1 tonight
Part 2 tomorrow night
50 to 60 minutes of video footage (in contrast Obama on O'Reilly was only 30 minute)
I'm sure lots of you will tune in since it's Fox News....
[h3]Exclusive: Sarah Palin[/h3]
Sean Hannity sits down with the GOP vice presidential nominee, Wednesday night at 9 p.m. ET. Watch a preview
Follow up to your remark....
CABLE NEWS RACE, WEDNESDAY, SEPT 17
FOXNEWS HANNITY/COLMES 4,921,000
FOXNEWS O'REILLY 3,839,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 3,561,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 2,184,000
FOXNEWS HUME 2,108,000
MSNBC OLBERMANN 1,854,000
CNN COOPER 1,719,000
MSNBC RACHEL MADDOW 1,716,000
CNN KING 1,646,000
MSNBC HARBALL 1,145,000
Can you post the ratings for that Gibson interview and compare the difference?
I don't have those #'s in front of me but you can't compare those #'s.... Fox News is CABLE..... ABC, everyonegets.
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tbone out there defending the republicans to the death.
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No.
It's the economy.
People associate and blame the economy doing bad with the President in office, a Republican....
Then look at McCain, who is a Republican.
or it could be that these polls are completely +!$*%%@$. is it necessary to post one every single day.
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You mortal fool, where is your god now?!Originally Posted by TBONE95860
[h3]
[/h3] [h3]Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection[/h3]
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ok i get that the electoral college projections shifted blue. but how did the win percentage shift so dramatically? i remember mccain had a small lead a coupledays ago and now the polls shift to obama and the win percentage jumps like 10 points?
http://www.guardian.co.uk.../brazil.barackobama/print
[h1]Now for Brazil's Barack Obamas - all six of them[/h1]
- Tom Phillips
- The Guardian,
- Monday September 15 2008
- Article history
'People thought I looked a bit like him': Brazilian politician Henrique dos Anjos has changed his name to Barack Obama
Walk into a polling station in Belford Roxo, an impoverished city on the fringes of Rio de Janiero, on October 5 and you will be faced with an historic choice. You could vote for Alcides Rolim, the Workers' Party mayoral candidate promising a "city for all" or Elizeu Pitorra, a local communist who believes it is "time for a change". Most voters, however, will probably opt for Barack Obama, a 39-year-old Brazilian who, until recently, was known as Claudio Henrique dos Anjos.
Welcome to Obama-mania, Brazil-style. Few countries have embraced the idea of the US's first black president as enthusiastically as Brazil, a country with one of the largest Afro-descendant populations on Earth yet where black faces remain a minority in politics. Obama T-shirts are everywhere while chat shows and newspaper columns are filled with talk of the 47-year-old Illinois senator.
Now even Brazil's politicians are lining up for their piece of the pie. Due to a quirk of Brazilian law, candidates are allowed to run under the name of their choice. As a result, at least six Brazilian politicians have officially renamed themselves "Barack Obama" in a bid to get an edge over their rivals in October's municipal elections.
"In truth it was an accident," says Belford Roxo's Obama, an IT consultant who is bidding to become the city's first black mayor. "I'd been on the television wearing a suit and people thought I looked a bit like him so they started calling me Barack Obama. They'd see me in the street and shout: 'Hey! Barack!" So I decided to register it."
Like his illustrious American counterpart, who has relatives in Kenya, Brazil's Obama also has one foot in Africa. His grandfather was the descendant of slaves.
He admits he has also been looking to his namesake's speeches for inspiration. "I say the same things. I talk about political renewal, change, about transforming the city."
Despite their similarities the two Obamas have yet to meet although the Brazilian Obama says that as mayor he would "extend an invitation" to the real Obama to dine in Belford Roxo. "It would be great if he could come and see our reality," he beams. "Just imagine."
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September 19, 2008
[h3]The State of the Race[/h3]
There's been a lot of talk about this dynamic race - "game changers" and "moments" and things of that nature. Regular readers of mine know that I don't subscribe to the view of politics inherent in that kind of analysis.
As an alternative to discussing Fannie, Freddie, lipstick on pigs, hacked emails, and patriotic 1040 filers - I thought I would put some simple numbers on the board to give us a sense of exactly what has changed since June 3rd.
I've broken the national polling into two sorting categories. First, we sort by pollster. We group the Gallup polls together, then the Rasmussen polls, then the remaining polls.
Second, we sort by date. We group the polls for June, then for July, then for August prior to the conventions, then for today.
Here are the results.
Let's analyze the data by one pollster category at a time. Rasmussen had fewer undecided/other voters to begin with, and this group has declined in size over time. Since June, the gain has been to McCain - though Obama is currently better positioned than he was in July or August.
We find something similar with the other pollsters (and the "today" category reflects the polls in the current RCP average that are not from Gallup or Rasmussen). Today, Obama is basically where he was in June while McCain is 4 points better off. Perhaps not coincidentally, the number of undecided has dropped by 3.7 points. Combined with Rasmussen, this suggests that McCain's convention helped him solidfy his core electorate. My general rule of thumb is that candidates should receive at least 45% of the vote in an open, two-way race. With the completion of a successful convention, McCain has now reached this floor.
Gallup shows something different. It had Obama performing more weakly at the beginning of the summer - and today it has him up. Meanwhile, McCain has barely improved since June. This implies that Obama, not McCain, has benefited from the drop in undecided voters. Of course, Gallup has moved very dramatically over the last three days. Such movement has not been uncommon for Gallup's daily tracker. It bounced a good bit for Obama's Europe trip, then the Democratic convention, then the Republican convention. Each time it has slowly made its way back toward a tighter race. Obama's recent bump in Gallup might correspond to market jitters, and it will be interesting to see if, as the jitters subside, Gallup finds a tighter race.
Let's analyze the race from a higher altitude. What do we see?
We see remarkable stability. Contrary to what one might think if one's only source for information was the political class - there has not been a lot of movement. The movement we have seen seems to have been pretty orderly - with McCain solidifying his Republican base.
We also see a group of undecided voters who have not yet made a choice. They will probably be decisive. In a race with only two salient candidates - the goal is to hit 50%-plus-one. Both McCain and Obama can still do that via the undecided voters, who are becoming the critical voting block. My hunch is that the 4-7% who are undecided today were part of the 7 to 12% that were undecided in June.
I am not surprised by the fact that neither candidate has yet obtained enough support to win. This is an open election with no incumbent to evaluate, nor even a candidate from the incumbent administration. This is a bad year for the Republican Party, but the GOP nominated a guy who has built a reputation opposing his own party. The Democrats nominated a candidate with a background dramatically different from any major party nominee in American history. Between 4% and 8% of the country still does not know what to make of it yet.
My intuition is that this group is going to sort itself out late. I'd guess that they are the true independents, i.e. those without strong party attachments. [Many people say they are independent but they actually behave like partisans.] I'd also wager that they have not been paying a lot of attention yet. The debates might move them, but I wouldn't be surprised if these folks sort themselves out in late October.
http://www.realclearpolit...he_state_of_the_race.html
[h3]The State of the Race[/h3]
There's been a lot of talk about this dynamic race - "game changers" and "moments" and things of that nature. Regular readers of mine know that I don't subscribe to the view of politics inherent in that kind of analysis.
As an alternative to discussing Fannie, Freddie, lipstick on pigs, hacked emails, and patriotic 1040 filers - I thought I would put some simple numbers on the board to give us a sense of exactly what has changed since June 3rd.
I've broken the national polling into two sorting categories. First, we sort by pollster. We group the Gallup polls together, then the Rasmussen polls, then the remaining polls.
Second, we sort by date. We group the polls for June, then for July, then for August prior to the conventions, then for today.
Here are the results.
Let's analyze the data by one pollster category at a time. Rasmussen had fewer undecided/other voters to begin with, and this group has declined in size over time. Since June, the gain has been to McCain - though Obama is currently better positioned than he was in July or August.
We find something similar with the other pollsters (and the "today" category reflects the polls in the current RCP average that are not from Gallup or Rasmussen). Today, Obama is basically where he was in June while McCain is 4 points better off. Perhaps not coincidentally, the number of undecided has dropped by 3.7 points. Combined with Rasmussen, this suggests that McCain's convention helped him solidfy his core electorate. My general rule of thumb is that candidates should receive at least 45% of the vote in an open, two-way race. With the completion of a successful convention, McCain has now reached this floor.
Gallup shows something different. It had Obama performing more weakly at the beginning of the summer - and today it has him up. Meanwhile, McCain has barely improved since June. This implies that Obama, not McCain, has benefited from the drop in undecided voters. Of course, Gallup has moved very dramatically over the last three days. Such movement has not been uncommon for Gallup's daily tracker. It bounced a good bit for Obama's Europe trip, then the Democratic convention, then the Republican convention. Each time it has slowly made its way back toward a tighter race. Obama's recent bump in Gallup might correspond to market jitters, and it will be interesting to see if, as the jitters subside, Gallup finds a tighter race.
Let's analyze the race from a higher altitude. What do we see?
We see remarkable stability. Contrary to what one might think if one's only source for information was the political class - there has not been a lot of movement. The movement we have seen seems to have been pretty orderly - with McCain solidifying his Republican base.
We also see a group of undecided voters who have not yet made a choice. They will probably be decisive. In a race with only two salient candidates - the goal is to hit 50%-plus-one. Both McCain and Obama can still do that via the undecided voters, who are becoming the critical voting block. My hunch is that the 4-7% who are undecided today were part of the 7 to 12% that were undecided in June.
I am not surprised by the fact that neither candidate has yet obtained enough support to win. This is an open election with no incumbent to evaluate, nor even a candidate from the incumbent administration. This is a bad year for the Republican Party, but the GOP nominated a guy who has built a reputation opposing his own party. The Democrats nominated a candidate with a background dramatically different from any major party nominee in American history. Between 4% and 8% of the country still does not know what to make of it yet.
My intuition is that this group is going to sort itself out late. I'd guess that they are the true independents, i.e. those without strong party attachments. [Many people say they are independent but they actually behave like partisans.] I'd also wager that they have not been paying a lot of attention yet. The debates might move them, but I wouldn't be surprised if these folks sort themselves out in late October.
http://www.realclearpolit...he_state_of_the_race.html
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[h3]Today's Polls, 9/19[/h3]
Let's not equivocate too much here. Over the course of the past several days, there has been a rather dramatic shift in this election toward Barack Obama. Our trendline estimate, which is engineered to be fairly conservative, registers the swing as equaling roughly 4 points over the course of the past week.
Changes of this velocity are unusual outside of the convention periods and the debates, especially in close elections. It took John McCain about 60 days and tens of millions of advertising dollars to whittle Obama's lead down from roughly 5 points at its peak in early June, to the 1-point lead that Obama held heading into the conventions. Obama has swing the numbers that much in barely a week.
Of course, we never really were entirely outside of gravitational field of the conventions, and probably at least half of this bounceback for Obama is merely the more-or-less inevitable consequence of McCain's convention bounce ending. But the fact is that Obama is in a stronger position now than he was immediately before the conventions. We now have him winning the election 71.5 percent of the time, which is about as high as that number has been all year.
There are two reasons why that number is as high as it is. Firstly, we are more than halfway through the penultimate month of the campaign, so even relatively small leads are fairly meaningful. But secondly, Obama has developed a structural advantage in the Electoral College that is understated by the popular vote margin. If we break the election down into its four fundamental scenarios, it looks like this:
Obama is roughly a 63/37 favorite to win the popular vote -- numbers that ought intuitively to look pretty reasonable for a candidate who holds a 2-pointnational lead fortysome days before the election. It's that 9 percent of the time he wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote that make his2-point lead much more robust. If the states maintain their positioning relative to one another -- and they may well not -- Obama probably has about a 1-pointcushion in which he'll remain the favorite to win the Electoral College even while losing the popular vote.
Transitioning to the state-level picture:
The set of Marist polls out today are certainly good ones for Barack Obama, particularly as both the Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers are several days old, taken before Obama's Lehman Leap had really taken hold. However, they need to be caveatted. The Marist polls do not have any particular partisan lean; somewhat infamously, they at one point gave McCain a 2-point lead over Obama in New York. But they simply are not very reliable, placing toward the bottom of our pollster ratings, and employing relatively small sample sizes. Still, we can probably conclude that the situation in Michigan looks quite good for Obama, and that Pennsylvania now represents McCain's most important offensive state.
Iowa, where SurveyUSA gives Obama an 11-point lead, no longer appears to be in play. Three of the last four polls have shown a double-digit Obama lead, making yesterday's Big Ten poll, which showed a tie there, appear to be the odd poll out. If the McCain campaign wants to continue to spend resources in Iowa, a state where they have never led a single public poll against Obama, they do so at their own peril.
Indiana, where both Rasmussen and ARG show a tight race, is one place where Obama appears to have gained ground in the post-convention period, somewhat contradicting the trend observed in other, traditionally red states. Although Obama can win Indiana, I still doubt that it's going to be close enough to the tipping point to warrant treatment as a first-tier swing state. (Could he win Indiana while losing Ohio? Probably not. And if he wins Ohio, he shouldn't need Indiana). With that said, no state in the country has a greater disparity in ground game resources, the effects of which are hard to measure. Obama will probably not win the election because of Indiana, but on the off-chance that he does, McCain's decision to blow off the state will instantly enter the Rudy Giuliani Memorial Electoral Hall of Shame.
The fly in Obama's ointment is in Maine, where Ramsussen has Obama ahead by just 4 points. ARG's poll earlier this week, which had his margin at 10, also showed a tightening race there. Maine is an unusual state with a fair number of Perot Independents. In terms of its political culture, it probably has more in common with the Pacific Northwest -- another region where McCain's numbers have improved slightly -- than with the rest of New England.
There is room for additional concern because Maine splits its electoral votes by Congressional District, and there is some thought that rural ME-2 may take well to Sarah Palin. However, ME-1 and ME-2 usually vote very similarly, and ME-2 is not entirely unlike Vermont, where Obama's polling has been quite strong. Also, Obama's campaign isn't about to be taken by surprise, boasting 12 field offices in Maine. For the time being, that one electoral vote in ME-2 is more one for Obama to monitor than one for him to lose sleep over.
Let's not equivocate too much here. Over the course of the past several days, there has been a rather dramatic shift in this election toward Barack Obama. Our trendline estimate, which is engineered to be fairly conservative, registers the swing as equaling roughly 4 points over the course of the past week.
Changes of this velocity are unusual outside of the convention periods and the debates, especially in close elections. It took John McCain about 60 days and tens of millions of advertising dollars to whittle Obama's lead down from roughly 5 points at its peak in early June, to the 1-point lead that Obama held heading into the conventions. Obama has swing the numbers that much in barely a week.
Of course, we never really were entirely outside of gravitational field of the conventions, and probably at least half of this bounceback for Obama is merely the more-or-less inevitable consequence of McCain's convention bounce ending. But the fact is that Obama is in a stronger position now than he was immediately before the conventions. We now have him winning the election 71.5 percent of the time, which is about as high as that number has been all year.
There are two reasons why that number is as high as it is. Firstly, we are more than halfway through the penultimate month of the campaign, so even relatively small leads are fairly meaningful. But secondly, Obama has developed a structural advantage in the Electoral College that is understated by the popular vote margin. If we break the election down into its four fundamental scenarios, it looks like this:
Code:
62.5% Obama wins Popular Vote and Electoral College0.7% Obama wins Popular Vote, loses Electoral College27.8% McCain wins Popular Vote and Electoral College9.0% McCain wins Popular Vote, loses Electoral CollegeTransitioning to the state-level picture:
The set of Marist polls out today are certainly good ones for Barack Obama, particularly as both the Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers are several days old, taken before Obama's Lehman Leap had really taken hold. However, they need to be caveatted. The Marist polls do not have any particular partisan lean; somewhat infamously, they at one point gave McCain a 2-point lead over Obama in New York. But they simply are not very reliable, placing toward the bottom of our pollster ratings, and employing relatively small sample sizes. Still, we can probably conclude that the situation in Michigan looks quite good for Obama, and that Pennsylvania now represents McCain's most important offensive state.
Iowa, where SurveyUSA gives Obama an 11-point lead, no longer appears to be in play. Three of the last four polls have shown a double-digit Obama lead, making yesterday's Big Ten poll, which showed a tie there, appear to be the odd poll out. If the McCain campaign wants to continue to spend resources in Iowa, a state where they have never led a single public poll against Obama, they do so at their own peril.
Indiana, where both Rasmussen and ARG show a tight race, is one place where Obama appears to have gained ground in the post-convention period, somewhat contradicting the trend observed in other, traditionally red states. Although Obama can win Indiana, I still doubt that it's going to be close enough to the tipping point to warrant treatment as a first-tier swing state. (Could he win Indiana while losing Ohio? Probably not. And if he wins Ohio, he shouldn't need Indiana). With that said, no state in the country has a greater disparity in ground game resources, the effects of which are hard to measure. Obama will probably not win the election because of Indiana, but on the off-chance that he does, McCain's decision to blow off the state will instantly enter the Rudy Giuliani Memorial Electoral Hall of Shame.
The fly in Obama's ointment is in Maine, where Ramsussen has Obama ahead by just 4 points. ARG's poll earlier this week, which had his margin at 10, also showed a tightening race there. Maine is an unusual state with a fair number of Perot Independents. In terms of its political culture, it probably has more in common with the Pacific Northwest -- another region where McCain's numbers have improved slightly -- than with the rest of New England.
There is room for additional concern because Maine splits its electoral votes by Congressional District, and there is some thought that rural ME-2 may take well to Sarah Palin. However, ME-1 and ME-2 usually vote very similarly, and ME-2 is not entirely unlike Vermont, where Obama's polling has been quite strong. Also, Obama's campaign isn't about to be taken by surprise, boasting 12 field offices in Maine. For the time being, that one electoral vote in ME-2 is more one for Obama to monitor than one for him to lose sleep over.
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Originally Posted by Barack 0drama
The actual issues...
EXACTLY.....who cares about lipsticks, pigs, glasses, who looks better, not knowing who the president of Mexico is, etc.
stick to the ISSUES and stop beating around the bush
chris boshs neck
Banned
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An Interesting video on Obama and drug policy. I 100% agree with everything he says, very insightful, I like to see McCain come up with anything thisintelligent lol.
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September 21, 2008
[h1]Pact on Debates Will Let McCain and Obama Spar[/h1]
By PATRICK HEALY
The Obama and McCain campaigns have agreed to an unusual free-flowing format for the three televised presidential debates, which begin Friday, but the McCain camp fought for and won a much more structuredapproach for the questioning at the vice-presidential debate, advisers to both campaigns said Saturday.
At the insistence of the McCain campaign, the Oct. 2 debate between the Republican nominee for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin,and her Democratic rival, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees, theadvisers said. There will also be much less opportunity for free-wheeling, direct exchanges between the running mates.
McCain advisers said they had been concerned that a loose format could leave Ms. Palin, a relatively inexperienced debater, at a disadvantage and largely onthe defensive.
The wrangling was chiefly between the McCain-Palin camp and the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which is sponsoring the forums.
Commission members wanted a relaxed format that included time for unpredictable questioning and challenges between the two vice-presidential candidates. OnWednesday, the commission unanimously rejected a proposal sought by advisers to Ms. Palin and Senator John McCainof Arizona, the Republican presidential nominee, to have the moderator ask questions and the candidates answer, with no time for unfettered exchanges. Advisersto Mr. Biden say they were comfortable with either format.
Both campaigns see the four debates as pivotal moments in a presidential race that is not only extraordinarily close but also drawing intense interest fromvoters; roughly 40 million viewers watched the major speeches at the two parties' conventions. The upheaval in the financial markets has recast the race inrecent days, moreover, which both sides believe will only heighten attention for the debates.
A commission member said that the new agreement on the vice-presidential debate was reached late Saturday morning. It calls for shorter blocks of candidatestatements and open discussion than at the presidential debates.
McCain advisers said they were only somewhat concerned about Ms. Palin's debating skills compared with those of Mr. Biden, who has served six terms inthe Senate, or about his chances of tripping her up. Instead, they say, they wanted Ms. Palin to have opportunities to present Mr. McCain's positions,rather than spending time talking about her experience or playing defense.
While the debates between presidential nominees are traditionally the main events in the fall election season, the public interest in Ms. Palin has provedextraordinary, and a large audience is expected for her national debate debut.
Indeed, both the McCain and Obama campaigns have similar concerns about the vice-presidential matchup in St. Louis: that Ms. Palin, of Alaska, as a newplayer in national politics, or Mr. Biden, of Delaware, as a loquacious and gaffe-prone speaker, could commit a momentum-changing misstep in their debate.
The negotiations for the three 90-minute debates between the men at the top of the tickets were largely free of brinksmanship. Neither side threatened topull out, and concerns about camera angles and stagecraft were minor.
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, the Democratic nominee for president, and Mr. McCain did not intercede personally to settleany disputes. They agreed to one substantive change to the format originally proposed by the debate commission, giving them two minutes apiece to make astatement at the beginning of each segment on a new topic.
Mr. Obama successfully sought to flip the proposed topics for the first and third debates, so foreign policy is now coming first and economic and otherdomestic issues come last. There is a second debate, in the format of a town hall meeting, in which the candidates will sit on director's chairs and takequestions from the audience and Internet users on any topic.
The debate commission had proposed that the first debate be on economic issues and the third on foreign policy - in part, people involved in the processsaid, because the first debate is usually the most watched, and many voters rank the economy as their top concern.
Mr. Obama wanted foreign policy first to show viewers that he could provide depth, strength and intelligence on those issues, his advisers said, given thatMr. McCain consistently wins higher ratings in opinion polls as a potential commander in chief.
Mr. Obama wanted domestic issues to come last; advisers said that they believed even before the start of the financial crisis that the election was mostlikely to turn on the state of the economy and that he wanted the final televised exchange to focus on those concerns. He has argued that Mr. McCain wouldcontinue the economic policies of President Bush.
Mr. McCain also wanted foreign policy topics to come first in the debates, his aides said, in the hope of capitalizing on his positive reputation onnational security issues across party lines.
He wanted limits on the original format for the first and third debates, which had been nine topics with nine minutes of free-flowing debate on each one.Mr. Obama went along, though his aides did insist that at least several minutes of open-ended debate occur in each block of questioning, because they believehe does well in that format.
Now the candidates will be asked a question, each will give an answer of two minutes or less, and then they will mix it up for five additional minutesbefore moving on to the next question in the same format.
Obama aides also agreed to use lecterns at the first event, which Mr. McCain preferred; at the third debate, the two men will be seated at a round table, inthe 10 o'clock and 2 o'clock positions, with the moderator at 6 o'clock.
McCain aides said that they were conscious of the fact that Mr. McCain has a prominent scar on one side of his face, and that they could not predict howprominent it would appear with the camera angles, lighting and make-up.
The debate formats were negotiated by Senator LindseyGraham, Republican of South Carolina, representing the McCain campaign, and Representative RahmEmanuel, Democrat of Illinois, for the Obama camp. A handful of aides from both camps were also involved, hammering out issues between themselves and thenholding conference calls with members of the commission to reach final agreements, people involved in the process said.
Mr. Obama plans to begin debate camp on Tuesday with a tight circle of advisers at a site in the Tampa Bay area of Florida, his aides say, with a prominentDemocratic lawyer, Greg Craig, playing the part of Mr. McCain in mock debates.
The Obama campaign has been studying Mr. McCain's debate performances from the Republican primary as well as in his 2000 race for president. Each debatehas been rated and scored, with briefing points and highlights sent to Mr. Obama.
Mr. Obama's advisers have been studying in particular Mr. McCain's temperament and mood and looking for potential flash points of anger.
Mr. McCain, his advisers say, has yet to spend much time watching the dozens of primary debate performances of Mr. Obama over the last two years. But theysaid that a small staff of aides had been reviewing them and that Mr. McCain would see some highlights next week.
McCain aides refused to say when his debate camp would be or where, or who was playing Mr. Obama or Mr. Biden. (Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm, Democrat of Michigan, is playing Ms. Palin for Mr. Biden's preparations.)
Mr. Obama plans to sequester himself and a few advisers at his debate camp. The attendance is limited to a small group of foreign policy advisers, eachrotating in for separate sessions with Mr. Obama and Mr. Craig.
The choice of Florida, particularly the politically critical region near Tampa, was selected with a dual purpose in mind. While Mr. Obama will have fewpublic events from Tuesday through Friday, aides said, his presence could draw considerable local news media attention in a state where he hopes to fiercelychallenge Mr. McCain.
While the intense portion of debate training begins on Tuesday, Mr. Obama has been preparing for weeks, in part by drawing upon his experience debatingSenator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York in the Democratic primaries. His aides have been studying those debateperformances to address one of his biggest shortcomings: his ability to deliver a tight answer. Already, his campaign is trying to diminish expectations forMr. Obama's performance.
"Despite the fact that we got the chance to do this a lot during the primaries, these debates are not by any stretch of the imagination his strongsuit," said Robert Gibbs, a senior strategist to Mr. Obama. "He likes to talk about a problem, give some examples that addresses some solutions andoftentimes that doesn't fit into the moderator's allotted time."
The campaigns had no say over the choice of moderators - Jim Lehrer ofPBS, Tom Brokaw ofNBC andBob Schieffer of CBS for the presidential debates, and Gwen Ifill of PBS for the vice-presidential debate.
"Everything matters and issues can always come up, such as the size of podiums - like for Carter and Ford in 1976 - to the timer lights if thecandidate doesn't like them," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who advised Al Gore in 2000 andJohnKerry in 2004. "There hasn't really been a 'debate about the debates' this year, but that can change in a minute."
[h1]Pact on Debates Will Let McCain and Obama Spar[/h1]
By PATRICK HEALY
The Obama and McCain campaigns have agreed to an unusual free-flowing format for the three televised presidential debates, which begin Friday, but the McCain camp fought for and won a much more structuredapproach for the questioning at the vice-presidential debate, advisers to both campaigns said Saturday.
At the insistence of the McCain campaign, the Oct. 2 debate between the Republican nominee for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin,and her Democratic rival, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees, theadvisers said. There will also be much less opportunity for free-wheeling, direct exchanges between the running mates.
McCain advisers said they had been concerned that a loose format could leave Ms. Palin, a relatively inexperienced debater, at a disadvantage and largely onthe defensive.
The wrangling was chiefly between the McCain-Palin camp and the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which is sponsoring the forums.
Commission members wanted a relaxed format that included time for unpredictable questioning and challenges between the two vice-presidential candidates. OnWednesday, the commission unanimously rejected a proposal sought by advisers to Ms. Palin and Senator John McCainof Arizona, the Republican presidential nominee, to have the moderator ask questions and the candidates answer, with no time for unfettered exchanges. Advisersto Mr. Biden say they were comfortable with either format.
Both campaigns see the four debates as pivotal moments in a presidential race that is not only extraordinarily close but also drawing intense interest fromvoters; roughly 40 million viewers watched the major speeches at the two parties' conventions. The upheaval in the financial markets has recast the race inrecent days, moreover, which both sides believe will only heighten attention for the debates.
A commission member said that the new agreement on the vice-presidential debate was reached late Saturday morning. It calls for shorter blocks of candidatestatements and open discussion than at the presidential debates.
McCain advisers said they were only somewhat concerned about Ms. Palin's debating skills compared with those of Mr. Biden, who has served six terms inthe Senate, or about his chances of tripping her up. Instead, they say, they wanted Ms. Palin to have opportunities to present Mr. McCain's positions,rather than spending time talking about her experience or playing defense.
While the debates between presidential nominees are traditionally the main events in the fall election season, the public interest in Ms. Palin has provedextraordinary, and a large audience is expected for her national debate debut.
Indeed, both the McCain and Obama campaigns have similar concerns about the vice-presidential matchup in St. Louis: that Ms. Palin, of Alaska, as a newplayer in national politics, or Mr. Biden, of Delaware, as a loquacious and gaffe-prone speaker, could commit a momentum-changing misstep in their debate.
The negotiations for the three 90-minute debates between the men at the top of the tickets were largely free of brinksmanship. Neither side threatened topull out, and concerns about camera angles and stagecraft were minor.
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, the Democratic nominee for president, and Mr. McCain did not intercede personally to settleany disputes. They agreed to one substantive change to the format originally proposed by the debate commission, giving them two minutes apiece to make astatement at the beginning of each segment on a new topic.
Mr. Obama successfully sought to flip the proposed topics for the first and third debates, so foreign policy is now coming first and economic and otherdomestic issues come last. There is a second debate, in the format of a town hall meeting, in which the candidates will sit on director's chairs and takequestions from the audience and Internet users on any topic.
The debate commission had proposed that the first debate be on economic issues and the third on foreign policy - in part, people involved in the processsaid, because the first debate is usually the most watched, and many voters rank the economy as their top concern.
Mr. Obama wanted foreign policy first to show viewers that he could provide depth, strength and intelligence on those issues, his advisers said, given thatMr. McCain consistently wins higher ratings in opinion polls as a potential commander in chief.
Mr. Obama wanted domestic issues to come last; advisers said that they believed even before the start of the financial crisis that the election was mostlikely to turn on the state of the economy and that he wanted the final televised exchange to focus on those concerns. He has argued that Mr. McCain wouldcontinue the economic policies of President Bush.
Mr. McCain also wanted foreign policy topics to come first in the debates, his aides said, in the hope of capitalizing on his positive reputation onnational security issues across party lines.
He wanted limits on the original format for the first and third debates, which had been nine topics with nine minutes of free-flowing debate on each one.Mr. Obama went along, though his aides did insist that at least several minutes of open-ended debate occur in each block of questioning, because they believehe does well in that format.
Now the candidates will be asked a question, each will give an answer of two minutes or less, and then they will mix it up for five additional minutesbefore moving on to the next question in the same format.
Obama aides also agreed to use lecterns at the first event, which Mr. McCain preferred; at the third debate, the two men will be seated at a round table, inthe 10 o'clock and 2 o'clock positions, with the moderator at 6 o'clock.
McCain aides said that they were conscious of the fact that Mr. McCain has a prominent scar on one side of his face, and that they could not predict howprominent it would appear with the camera angles, lighting and make-up.
The debate formats were negotiated by Senator LindseyGraham, Republican of South Carolina, representing the McCain campaign, and Representative RahmEmanuel, Democrat of Illinois, for the Obama camp. A handful of aides from both camps were also involved, hammering out issues between themselves and thenholding conference calls with members of the commission to reach final agreements, people involved in the process said.
Mr. Obama plans to begin debate camp on Tuesday with a tight circle of advisers at a site in the Tampa Bay area of Florida, his aides say, with a prominentDemocratic lawyer, Greg Craig, playing the part of Mr. McCain in mock debates.
The Obama campaign has been studying Mr. McCain's debate performances from the Republican primary as well as in his 2000 race for president. Each debatehas been rated and scored, with briefing points and highlights sent to Mr. Obama.
Mr. Obama's advisers have been studying in particular Mr. McCain's temperament and mood and looking for potential flash points of anger.
Mr. McCain, his advisers say, has yet to spend much time watching the dozens of primary debate performances of Mr. Obama over the last two years. But theysaid that a small staff of aides had been reviewing them and that Mr. McCain would see some highlights next week.
McCain aides refused to say when his debate camp would be or where, or who was playing Mr. Obama or Mr. Biden. (Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm, Democrat of Michigan, is playing Ms. Palin for Mr. Biden's preparations.)
Mr. Obama plans to sequester himself and a few advisers at his debate camp. The attendance is limited to a small group of foreign policy advisers, eachrotating in for separate sessions with Mr. Obama and Mr. Craig.
The choice of Florida, particularly the politically critical region near Tampa, was selected with a dual purpose in mind. While Mr. Obama will have fewpublic events from Tuesday through Friday, aides said, his presence could draw considerable local news media attention in a state where he hopes to fiercelychallenge Mr. McCain.
While the intense portion of debate training begins on Tuesday, Mr. Obama has been preparing for weeks, in part by drawing upon his experience debatingSenator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York in the Democratic primaries. His aides have been studying those debateperformances to address one of his biggest shortcomings: his ability to deliver a tight answer. Already, his campaign is trying to diminish expectations forMr. Obama's performance.
"Despite the fact that we got the chance to do this a lot during the primaries, these debates are not by any stretch of the imagination his strongsuit," said Robert Gibbs, a senior strategist to Mr. Obama. "He likes to talk about a problem, give some examples that addresses some solutions andoftentimes that doesn't fit into the moderator's allotted time."
The campaigns had no say over the choice of moderators - Jim Lehrer ofPBS, Tom Brokaw ofNBC andBob Schieffer of CBS for the presidential debates, and Gwen Ifill of PBS for the vice-presidential debate.
"Everything matters and issues can always come up, such as the size of podiums - like for Carter and Ford in 1976 - to the timer lights if thecandidate doesn't like them," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who advised Al Gore in 2000 andJohnKerry in 2004. "There hasn't really been a 'debate about the debates' this year, but that can change in a minute."
- 7,004
- 291
- 4,751
- 10
Republicans FTL
Trying to protect Palin
Trying to protect Palin
- 28,113
- 2,665
- 1,471
- 10
- 334
- 10
Time for Mccain to go down.
- 3,319
- 14
This Palin chick is so sheltered its disgusting.
