ELECTION DAY 2008:........... Barack Obama, the next President of the United States of America

[mbiii]

Originally Posted by CasperJr

i have 5 that T off his self when obama win

what the hell did you just say???...

 

[toy collector123]

CBS Poll: Obama Maintains 13 Point Lead

Final USA TODAY/Gallup estimate: Obama, 53%; McCain, 42%

Goodnight and thank you Republicans for this entertaining election season. Now, may we forget about these past 8 years so that we can continue to focus on theissues at hand.

Once again, thank you!

 

[aepps20]

The polls at this point mean absolutely nothing. If people don't show up in the numbers the pollsters think the race could go either way.

 

[casperjr]

Originally Posted by MBIII

Originally Posted by CasperJr

i have 5 that T off his self when obama win

what the hell did you just say???...

is it really that hard to understand..........let me help you

i have 5 U.S. dollars that T as in tbone off him self as in kills his self you with me now?

 

[toy collector123]

Originally Posted by CasperJr

Originally Posted by MBIII

Originally Posted by CasperJr

i have 5 that T off his self when obama win

what the hell did you just say???...

is it really that hard to understand..........let me help you

i have 5 U.S. dollars that T as in tbone off him self as in kills his self you with me now?

Son, that's even more confusing, but I understood the first time.

 

[blaxoid]

Originally Posted by CasperJr

Originally Posted by MBIII

Originally Posted by CasperJr

i have 5 that T off his self when obama win

what the hell did you just say???...

is it really that hard to understand..........let me help you

i have 5 U.S. dollars that T as in tbone off him self as in kills his self you with me now?

By god, please learn to use punctuation so that I can follow your insults.

 

[sfn 155]

Originally Posted by TBONE95860

Originally Posted by SFN 155

Originally Posted by TBONE95860

Keep thinking that.
If he's up by 15%
Why is your man Obama going BACK TO IOWA in the last 3 remaining days.
Makes a lot of sense to waste time in a state you are up 15% in

And why would McCain/Palin be going back to Iowa wasting THEIR time if it was a 15% race

You've gotta be smarter than this.
1. Why would he go there? Because he can. Why shouldn't he? Where else should he go?

Why are McCain/Palin going? Because if they don't go to places they have no chance in, they would essentially be conceding.

What are you talking about? You apparently don't know much about politics.

1. Because he can?! Where else should he go?!..... how about states that he's not up "15%"

How about states like North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana.... traditional red states that are DEAD HEATS. How about Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Florida... the list goes on. ANYWHERE but a place you're up "15%"
Time is VERY important this late in the game. You only go places that are the big time battlegrounds.

2. That is absolutely not true

Why would they go to places that they are 100% going to lose to WASTE their time. According to you they might as well go to New York, New Jersey, Washington, Oregon

You go places that you DO have a chance in. You go places where the race is still tight. You go to battlegrounds. You go to the swing states that are going to decide this election. You go to places that might tip you over the top.

Honestly with your last comments you made yourself sound like you don't know much about politics so I'll let it slide.

1. He's not spending all his time in Iowa man. Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Colorado, Indiana, andNevada were all visited yesterday, today, or will be tomorrow by Barack, Biden, Hillary, or Michelle Obama. Most of those by more than one person mentioned.

edit: In case you didn't understand that; He has the time and money to counter a McCain campaign in Iowa while still going to every close state, so whywouldn't he.

2. McCain could win every "swing" state and still wouldn't win the election. He has to make it appear he has a chance in at least a coupleObama states, or like I said, he would essentially be conceding.

 

[jordanlovah]

people people people.....quit worrying about the polls. JUST GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!

both candidates can be in whatever state they choose to be in.....it's all about sealing the deal and making
sure people GET OUT AND VOTE. so relaxxxxx

 

[basirwaahid]

I hope people will keep their minds open and remember this may be a close race on tuesday
note - im an undecided voter
It's people like you, I don't understand?? How in the hell can you still be undecided with only 2 freakin' days left. If you watch allthe campaigning the last week, they've haven't said anything different!!! They're saying the same things. Watch fox or CNN when they go live toeach candidate, they're make the same repeated speech!!!! You undecided are pitful. Freakin' make a pick already. . .

 

[aepps20]

Originally Posted by BasirWaahid

Originally Posted by aepps20

The polls at this point mean absolutely nothing. If people don't show up in the numbers the pollsters think the race could go either way.

It's people like you, I don't understand?? How in the hell can you still be undecided with only 2 freakin' days left. If you watch all the campaigning the last week, they've haven't said anything different!!! They're saying the same things. Watch fox or CNN when they go live to each candidate, they're make the same repeated speech!!!! You undecided are pitful. Freakin' make a pick already. . .

What are you talking about? The point of my post is that people shouldn't get overconfident by the polls because they change all the time andvoter turnout is what really matters. Not only am I not undecided, but I filled out my mail in ballot and turned it in two weeks ago.

 

[clarkkent415]

 

[sfn 155]

http://www.huffingtonpost...ate-electio_b_140181.html [h1]The Most Accurate Election Forecast? Hardcore Gamblers[/h1]

Recently I was in Kentucky, reporting on horseracing for Garden & Gun. A "whale" (bettor of thousands of dollars per day) I interviewed, Mike Maloney, successfully traded securities, options and futures, but chose to go to the track every day instead because it offered him a greater challenge. "There are many, many, many more factors to consider in betting horseraces," he said.

Maloney is a youthful fifty-two, with alert, light blue eyes and a cheerful demeanor. He doesn't chomp on a cigar. He's in no way a Damon Runyon character. I have reason to believe he's a sort of mathematical genius.

I asked him: "Do you think handicappers can forecast the outcome of the presidential election better than polls?"

He didn't hesitate. "Polls can be inaccurate. People may say what is politically correct, the questions may be leading, the pollsters may be biased. A pollster can still bill for an inaccurate poll. Bookmakers must make an accurate line or they lose -- period."

For a second opinion I went to Ray Paulick, who was a protégé of notorious oddsmaker "Jimmy The Greek" before becoming a handicapper for the Daily Racing Form. Now he's editor of the thoroughbred industry insiders' must-read Paulick Report. "Gamblers have more experience with cheaters," he said. "They take voter fraud into their metrics. Polls don't. Nor do polls take into account how each state's secretary of state factors in, or systems within a state designed to eliminate voters; Jimmy the Greek called these 'the intangibles.'"

The multi-billion dollar online gaming industry offers evidence that Maloney and Paulick are, as usual, on the money.

Michael Robb, political expert for the British bookmaking site Betfair.com, lets the record speak for itself: Halfway through Election Day in 2004, when a CNN poll showed Kerry taking the lead, Betfair had Bush with a 91% chance to win.

Of course that's just one election. Probably hundreds of fifth-grade social studies students correctly predicted Bush's margin of victory to a decimal place, right?

Betfair also had all 50 states right in 2004.

As did rival site Intrade.

Koleman Strumpf, a University of Kansas economics professor who tracks betting trends, believes wagering is an incomparable barometer of an election. Among the reasons he gave me:

Relative to the polls, the betting markets have to think hard about what they're saying since they are putting their money at stake. Also polls tend to reflect what people are thinking at a given moment, versus a forecast of what will happen on election day -- post-convention bounces, for instance.

With University of Arizona economist Paul Rhode, Strumpf authored a study -- "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," published in Journal of Economic Perspectives -- that demonstrates that the betting market's forecasting superiority is nothing new.

They begin with America's long history of wagering on political outcomes, which boomed in the 1880s when betting moved from poolrooms to the Curb Exchange, the predecessor to the American Stock Exchange. Betting on political outcomes often drew huge crowds to Wall Street and exceeded trading in stocks and bonds.

"In presidential races such as 1896, 1900, 1904, 1916, and 1924, the New York Times, Sun, and World provided nearly daily [betting] quotes from early October until Election Day," write Rhode and Strumpf.

The papers' sources were betting firms, which had men present at speeches made by the candidates in order to make "unbiased reports of the psychological reactions of the audiences."

In the fifteen elections between 1884 and 1940, the betting firms were wrong just once, in 1916, when Wilson upset Hughes. And the gamblers might have had a perfect record had the Curb Market stayed open long enough to take into account late-breaking news from the West.

The advent of polls marked the end of an era. "Prior to Gallup's introduction in 1936, newspapers had little else to report about the election horserace other than the betting markets," Strumpf said. "When scientific polls came along, newspapers had something to report other than markets they were oftentimes uncomfortable with."

Responding to such discomfort, state laws increasingly limited organized election betting. Betting persisted, but in the shadows. Accordingly little data exists from 1940 through 1984, though it's enough that Strumpf concludes gamblers were more accurate than the pollsters in that period too.

The advent of internet wagering offers a clearer picture: "Since 1988, the betting markets have definitely been more accurate," Strumpf said.

It's still illegal for United States citizens to wager on the presidential election; Betfair and Intrade try to bar American bettors. Several newer off-shore sites are more lenient, however.

Currently, Betfair lists Barack Obama as an overwhelming 1-7 favorite (paying $8 for a $7 winning bet). A John McCain win would pay $6.80 for every dollar bet.

"On Election Night I'll look at the movement on the betting sites to see what's going on," Strumpf says. "I watch CNN too, out of the corner of an eye, but it's not necessary."

 

[tupac003]

http//patriotroom.com/?p=3739 http://patriotroom.com/?p=3739
After going through this website I am scared.

I really believe McCain will win this. I just don't think America has come far enough to let a half black man be president.

I hope that website is just some crap put together by crazy people.

I don't believe any poll. All I know is I will go out and vote for my candidate. I hope he wins.

 

[antcyalater]

This is from the DesMoines Iowa about Obama's lead over there...he's going back to make a significant change in the way Iowa votes...

http://http://www.desmoinesregis...8&theme=CAMPAIGN_2008


McPain.

Barack Obama is beating John McCain in Iowa by a whopping 17 percentage points, according to the Iowa Poll published in today's Register.

Obama gets 54 percent of the vote, while McCain captures 37 percent among likely voters, according to the survey.

If that kind of margin is reflected in what happens on Election Day, it would be the largest presidential margin in Iowa since Richard Nixon beat George McGovern by 17.1 percentage points in the state in 1972.


Obama's lead in the poll is almost three times what his average lead is nationally.

So much for Iowa being a "battleground" or "tossup" state this time.

In fact, the poll indicates a Democratic landslide may be in the offing in Iowa. The poll shows Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin beating his Republican challenger, Christopher Reed, by 57 percent to 31 percent. If Harkin wins by a margin like that - 26 points - it would be his biggest margin in his five general election campaigns for the Senate.

Both Obama and Harkin have widened their margins since September.

(The Iowa Poll of 814 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Friday of last week and has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.)

The survey's presidential findings also mirror numbers found by other pollsters in Iowa. A SurveyUSA poll taken Tuesday-Wednesday showed Obama ahead by 15 points, while a Research2000 poll taken Monday-Wednesday showed Obama up by 14.

In 2000 and 2004, Republican George W. Bush closed in on his Democratic rivals in the final weeks of the campaign. This time, the Democrat is pulling away.

In recent days, both McCain and Obama have spent time in the state. So has McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, who is scheduled to be in Dubuque on Monday.

McCain's effort doesn't look to be making much difference. Obama took a 12-point lead in September and has only built upon it. If you look at the Realclearpolitics.com averages of all the polls, the closest McCain came to Obama in Iowa was in early September, when he closed Obama's lead to an average of only 5 points.

Such poor numbers threaten to have a demoralizing effect among Republicans and an energizing one among Democrats. If Democrats smell victory and head to the polls while Republicans are in a funk and stay at home (as happened in the 1974 Watergate election), then Obama's landslide could bury other GOP candidates down the ballot.

So what went right for Obama in Iowa? What went wrong for McCain? In both cases, the answer is just about everything, and it's not real complicated.

Like other Americans, Iowans see the country as headed in the wrong direction. McCain's party holds the White House, and voters hold that party accountable. Republicans also drifted away from many of their traditional principles. The war in Iraq, high-deficit spending and political corruption all worked to sour voters on the GOP brand.

McCain didn't campaign much in the Iowa caucuses and alienated some Iowans by bashing ethanol and farm subsidies. Obama also ran a textbook campaign in Iowa and kept building on the organization that led him to a victory in the caucuses. Obama succeeded in turning out many new first-time voters and Democrats who weren't regular voters.

McCain, by contrast, picked Palin to be his running mate in an effort to gin up support in the party's base of evangelical voters. He seems to have built nothing on top of that base. According to the poll, only 30 percent of Iowa's voters say they are "evangelical" or "born again," and not all of those are McCain voters.

 

[superblytrife]

Originally Posted by tupac003

http //patriotroom.com/?p=3739 http://patriotroom.com/?p=3739

After going through this website I am scared.

I really believe McCain will win this. I just don't think America has come far enough to let a half black man be president.

I hope that website is just some crap put together by crazy people.

I don't believe any poll. All I know is I will go out and vote for my candidate. I hope he wins.

Dude, that site is such propaganda. Ain't no way Barack is going to get blown out like that(I didn't say he can't lose though). It just is nothappening, unless the white people of America decided to play a prank on the world with their support of Obama.

All that site is for is to rally the troops and ruffle GOP feathers, a.k.a. getting them out to vote.

 

[willinc]

D-Day is almost upon us.

I'm just hoping all the people who say they are gonna vote, actually do vote.

 

[nostrandave68]

Well i'll harp in. First, I personally don't trust polls, they are not a definite gauge of outcome. People might say they are gonna vote this way andwhen they get in the booth they vote an entirely different way. Secondly as has become quite apparent lately ignorant people know no boundaries, Bush waselected a 2nd time largely based on ignorance & fear the same 2 elements that are present in this current election so even though Obama is projected to wini wouldn't underestimate the McCain/Palin ticket. All i will say is that people shouldn't be complacent, get out their and vote. If it takes 45mins or5 hours stay your a-s in line and vote. The results of this election is largely based on turnout, if there's a high black & youth turnout this electionis pretty much in the bag but as we've seen these 2 groups aren't the most reliable when it comes to elections. All these college kids have smartphonesBlackberries, Iphones, SKs and etc if the line is long just browse the web, bring your Ipod sh-- do something.... just don't be discouraged by long lines.If cats can camp out for Iphones, Jordans they can campout to vote... there's nothing more fundamental in a democracy than voting.

We can't let ignorance once again defeat common sense. And for all those undecides out there just ask yourself this.... they say the way a candidate runshis campaign is the way he will run his presidency. Now as we've seen the past 2 months we've seen McCain run a completely terrible campaign that wasoff message, overly negative and filled with poor decision making. Its very clear that with the Palin pick McCain is not a foward thinker, he thinks for rightnow.... we don't need risk takers in the White House we need a rational thoughtful President... not one that will make decisions off the fly . I canabsolutely guarantee that McCain will start a war with Iran, people are really overlooking that element... McCain comes from a military family so they alwayshave that war mentality where diplomacy isn't viewed as a first option but as a last result.

Defeat ignorance Nov 4th

 

[superblytrife]

If cats can camp out for Iphones, Jordans they can campout to vote... there's nothing more fundamental in a democracy than voting.
QFT.

 

[tbone95860]

Since I really need to be getting ready for a midterm/test on Thursday, need to relax a bit before Tuesday---focus my attention elsewhere, andwill be busy with school, campaigning for local candidates, and whatever else over the next 36 hours or so until election day.... I'll make this my lastpost in this thread until Tuesday at the earliest.

I'll give 2 predictions heading into election day.... one of what I THINK will happen.... and one of what I HOPE will happen.

1. What I think will happen....

[color= rgb(255, 255, 255)]Popular Vote[/color]
Obama 51.5%
McCain 47.5%

Electoral College

2. What I hope will happen....

[color= rgb(255, 255, 255)]Popular Vote[/color]
Obama 49.4%
McCain 49.6%
(or Obama 49.8, McCain 49.2... McCain winning electoral, losingpopular vote)

Electoral College

Any combination of these 4 states...
[table][tr][td]Combinations[/td] [/tr][tr][td] 1[/td] [td] [table][tr][td]
PA
[/td] [td]+[/td] [td]
VA
[/td] [/tr][/table][/td] [/tr][tr][td] 2[/td] [td] [table][tr][td]
PA
[/td] [td]+[/td] [td]
CO
[/td] [/tr][/table][/td] [/tr][tr][td] 3[/td] [td] [table][tr][td]
PA
[/td] [td]+[/td] [td]
NV
[/td] [/tr][/table][/td] [/tr][tr][td] 4[/td] [td] [table][tr][td]
VA
[/td] [td]+[/td] [td]
CO
[/td] [td]+[/td] [td]
NV
[/td] [/tr][/table][/td] [/tr][/table]

Good luck to everyone, including ya damn Obama supporters

Just go vote, it's the right thing to do.

(unless you're in a swing state

)

 

[blazersin2k3]

man i hope theres not long lines on tuesday, i wont wait more than 15 minutes to vote. in 04 when i voted it took like 5 minutes but turnout is gonna be a lotbigger this year.

 

[nostrandave68]

BTW there's one factor thats being GROSSLY underestimated. The Dow Jones Industrial. If The DOW loses a significant amount of points [300-40 tomorrow orTuesday then that makes it even that much more difficult for McCain because it reminds people once again about the economy & pocketbook issues.

 

[jordanlovah]

Originally Posted by blazersin2k3

man i hope theres not long lines on tuesday, i wont wait more than 15 minutes to vote. in 04 when i voted it took like 5 minutes but turnout is gonna be a lot bigger this year.

.....then u might as well have a bottle then take a nap

 

[thagreatj]

Originally Posted by MarTdiZzle23

I hope people will keep their minds open and remember this may be a close race on tuesday
note - im an undecided voter

how could you still be undecided? i ask that cause the differences between Rep and Dem are so vast...

 

[enyceking]

at this point if your still undecided just stay home. +%%! your vote.

 

[nyzmagician]

Originally Posted by Tunnel Vision

There is still hope for the South! Jason Hill

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyKUyinBhgo

If someone can embed the video, it'd be appreciated.

Good video.