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Anyone with Insider care to post the NBA future rankings that ESPN put out there today?
ESPN NBA Future Rankings
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Updated: November 10, 2009, 5:58 PM ET
[h2]Future Power Rankings: Teams 1 to 5[/h2] [h3]How will your favorite team fare in future seasons? Our experts take a close look[/h3]
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By Chad Ford and John Hollinger
ESPN.com
ESPN.com IllustrationThe ESPN.com crystal ball says that the future NBA standings will have some new faces at the top.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team during the 2010-11,2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons.
[h4]How Future Power Rating Is Determined[/h4] [table][tr][td]PLAYERS (0 to 400 points): Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departures[/td] [/tr][tr][td]MANAGEMENT (0 to 200 points): Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coaching[/td] [/tr][tr][td]MONEY (0 to 200 points): Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax[/td] [/tr][tr][td]MARKET (0 to 100 points): Appeal to future acquisitions, based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans[/td] [/tr][tr][td]DRAFT (0 to 100 points): Future draft picks; draft positioning[/td] [/tr][tr][td]CATEGORY RANKINGS: See how each team ranked in each category[/td] [/tr][/table]
Consider this a convenient way to see in what direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expected each team to perform in the threeseasons following this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category was a team's current players and the future potential of those players -- that categoryaccounted for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputationof the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
To reach our ratings in each category, we talked to teams to get a handle on their future strategies, we looked at their contractual commitments and wecarefully broke down each roster to figure out which players would improve, which would decline and which would likely depart.
We expect these rankings to evolve as the season moves along, trades are made, injuries occur, strategies shift, and so on. Return from time to time as weupdate the rankings.
Here are our current rankings, from 1 to 30:
[h3]Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30[/h3]
[h3]1. Portland Trail Blazers | Future Power Rating: 688[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]354 (2nd)[/td] [td]153 (3rd)[/td] [td]92 (17th)[/td] [td]53 (12th)[/td] [td]37 (23rd)[/td] [/tr][/table]
On paper, no other team possesses as bright a future as the Portland Trail Blazers. It allstarts with the players. Nobody, not even Oklahoma City, can match the stable of young talent the Blazers have built. Brandon Roy is already a superstar, and joining him are potential stars like LaMarcus Aldridge (24), Greg Oden (21, even if he looks more like 51), Nicolas Batum (20) and Martell Webster (22). That doesn't even count the other assets the Blazers have thatcould eventually pan out, such as talented second-year benchwarmer Jerryd Bayless anda veritable farm team in Europe that includes Joel Freeland, Petteri Koponen and Victor Claver.
Portland also gets strong grades in other categories. The management under GM KevinPritchard has been rock-solid, with the only minor quibble being the decision to draft Oden ahead of Kevin Durant -- a decision, one should remember, that all 30 GMs were prepared to make, evenif a lot of fans and analysts weren't. In terms of money, the Blazers have no cap room to speak of for the foreseeable future, but being owned by one ofthe world's wealthiest men in a rabid city where sellouts are the norm means the Blazers can comfortably go into luxury tax and beyond should the needarise.
Portland market didn't score as highly in the market category -- witness Hedo Turkoglu's about-face -- as sad, dreary winters, the nation'shighest state taxes and a relative lack of diversity for a major metropolitan area limit its attractiveness to free agents. They stay in the middle of the packin this category largely due to Allen's largesse, with first-rate team facilities, and the fact that a lot of players grow to like the place oncethey've been there -- it helped bring Steve Blake back, for instance.
The draft is where Portland scored poorly, but even that is a positive in a sense -- with such a bright future, it can expect to pick in the mid-to-late 20sin coming seasons.
[h3]2. Orlando Magic | Future Power Rating: 683[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]356 (1st)[/td] [td]147 (4th)[/td] [td]83 (24th)[/td] [td]73 (4th)[/td] [td]24 (27th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Magic look like one of the league's teams to beat in 2009-10, and we're guessing that will continue to be the case for the following three yearsas well. Orlando is blessed with a young superstar big man in Dwight Howard, and mostof the veteran cast around him -- Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, MickaelPietrus and Vince Carter, for example -- should remain spry enough to contributestrongly to the cause for a few more seasons. There is young talent, too, in BrandonBass, Ryan Anderson, J.J. Redick and MarcinGortat. But it appears we can stop mentioning that they own the rights to Fran Vazquez.
In the front office, the Magic have several strengths -- one of the league's premier coaches in Stan Van Gundy, the committed ownership of the DeVosfamily and an underrated general manager in Otis Smith. That pushed Orlando to a fourth-best finish in this category.
When it comes to money, Orlando has no cap space for the foreseeable future. The Magic are willing to pay the tax, however, despite their small market, andthe new arena that comes online next year should help considerably on the money front.
They also benefit from one of the league's most desirable markets. Orlando's balmy weather, the Magic's winning ways and the lack of state taxesin Florida combine to put them near the top of the list for any prospective free agent.
The one area in which the Magic can't expect much further help is the draft -- it appears they'll be picking somewhere between 27th and 30th for thenext few years.
[h3]3. Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 657[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]318 (3rd)[/td] [td]139 (8th)[/td] [td]95 (14th)[/td] [td]95 (1st)[/td] [td]10 (30th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The NBA champion Lakers might have the best roster in the league for 2009-10. But will they in the following three years? When the 2013 Finals end, Kobe Bryant will be nearly 35, and Pau Gasol, Lamar Odomand Ron Artest will be 32 or older as well. That's why L.A., even with Andrew Bynum on the roster, ranked third behind Orlando and Portland in the Players category,which rates both the current roster and its potential for the next few seasons. Similarly, the Lakers came out third overall in our rankings.
One category that helps is the market. Despite California's high taxes, the Lakers ranked No. 1 in this category, with players loving the team'sfame and success, the good weather and the marketing opportunities that come with playing for the league's marquee franchise. The fact that theirthird-string center has a publicist says it all.
L.A.'s management also rated well, thanks to the strong ownership of Jerry Buss and the recent solid moves by GM Mitch Kupchak after a very iffy startto his reign. It would have rated even higher if we knew whether Phil Jackson would keep coaching beyond this season.
Money-wise, L.A. ranked in the middle of the pack. Though they have little opportunity for cap space in the near future, the Lakers can pay the luxury taxwithout blinking an eye if the right deal comes along -- that's an underrated reason they were able to steal Pau Gasol from Memphis two years ago, forinstance.
But one area in which they won't get any help is the draft. With no first-rounder this year (owed to Memphis for the Gasol plunder) and future pickslikely coming late in the first round, L.A. ranked dead last in that category.
[h3]4. Oklahoma City Thunder | Future Power Rating: 637[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]274 (6th)[/td] [td]139 (9th)[/td] [td]125 (6th)[/td] [td]36 (23rd)[/td] [td]63 (10th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Oklahoma City may not make the playoffs this year, but for the three years that follow, the Thunder's hopes seem as bright as any team's.
It starts with a rapidly improving roster that includes star forward Kevin Durant and rising talents like Russell Westbrook, James Harden and JeffGreen, as well as several intriguing prospects -- Thabo Sefolosha, B.J. Mullens, SergeIbaka and .J. White among them.
Oklahoma City also ranks high in the money category, having more than $10 million to spend this summer on a free-agent splurge to cement its already strongnucleus while maintaining a very good cap situation for future seasons. The only question is whether owner Clay Bennett will commit to spending once the timecomes. But thanks to the strong moves made thus far by GM Sam Presti, OKC earned a ninth-place ranking in the management category.
The Thunder also scored well on the draft, owning both their pick and an unprotected choice from Phoenix in next year's draft before their likelyascension to the back end of the draft in future seasons.
One area in which they didn't fare as well, however, was in the market category. Oklahoma City is the smallest NBA market and plagued by some wildweather, two factors that combine to put it well off the radar for most prospective free agents. But there's hope: The Thunder have an excited fan base,and Oklahoma City might look like a pretty good destination if the Thunder start winning big.
[h3]5. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 636[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]238 (10th)[/td] [td]112 (12th)[/td] [td]146 (2nd)[/td] [td]89 (2nd)[/td] [td]51 (14th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
They might be a one-man band at the moment, but we're very high on Miami's future. The big reason? A confluence of salary-cap space and the abilityto win bidding wars for players.
If Miami plays its cards right, it will have more cap space than any other team in 2010, making the Heat a major player in perhaps the most highlyanticipated free-agent market in league history. Additionally, Miami is poised to win battles with other teams that offer equal money because it is among themost desirable cities for most players. With warm weather, lots of nightlife and no state taxes, only L.A. ranked higher in the market category.
Miami ranked solidly in the other three areas, too. Dwyane Wade is still in hisprime at 27 and, presuming he sticks around, has a very talented cohort in forward Michael Beasley and a second promising piece on guard Mario Chalmers. Additionally, the Heat's management is rock-solid. They have a strongowner in Micky Arison, although he's been reluctant to go into luxury tax. Team president Pat Riley has done solid work when he's stuck to his knittingupstairs, and Miami has a promising young coach in Erik Spoelstra.
The draft should be reasonably helpful as well, with probably a middling pick in 2010 and at some point a lottery-protected first-rounder from Toronto fromthe Jermaine O'Neal trade.
[h3]6. Utah Jazz | Future Power Rating: 624[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]278 (5th)[/td] [td]142 (7th)[/td] [td]91 (19th)[/td] [td]39 (21st)[/td] [td]74 (5th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Jazz have often been among the most underrated teams in the league, and likewise our rankings here expose just how surprisingly dangerous they should begoing forward.
Utah ranked fifth in the players category (the current roster and its potential), because it has significant talent, much of it young. Deron Williams (25) is a star point guard (even if he's never made the All-Star team).Paul Millsap (24) is a tenacious rebounder and Ronnie Brewer (24) has improved every year in the league, while Kosta Koufos (20) and Eric Maynor (22) can become major contributors.
The franchise can keep adding to the talent base via several routes. Carlos Boozeris a useful trade chip, if the Jazz choose to move him this season (before he goes into free agency in 2010). And Utah holds New York's first-round draftpick, likely a high lottery pick, thanks to the Knicks and Suns, who fumbled it away back in 2004. Adding another core player should stand the Jazz in verygood stead for the next four or five seasons.
Utah has a strong front-office team led by the quiet but effective Kevin O'Connor, who has a terrific eye for talent, especially players who can fithead coach Jerry Sloan's style of basketball. He has only a small staff on a tight budget, but no one does more with less than O'Connor. Meanwhile,Sloan is one of the few constants in the NBA, and his success figures strongly into Utah's seventh-place ranking in the management category.
And while Salt Lake City itself is often cited as a liability in attracting NBA players, the Jazz have an excellent record in keeping their core players,and even in signing new players to reasonable contracts and offer sheets (including Boozer, Mehmet Okur, CoreyMaggette and Jason Terry in recent years).
The main limitation the Jazz will have going forward comes in the money category. The team is over the salary cap and looks to stay that way until 2012. Anyadditions they make will have to be through trades and the draft.
[h3]7. Chicago Bulls | Future Power Rating: 609[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]256 (7th)[/td] [td]104 (13th)[/td] [td]130 (4th)[/td] [td]68 (6th)[/td] [td]51 (15th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
A dozen seasons after their most recent title, the Bulls and their fans are still suffering withdrawal pains from the Michael Jordan era. While the team has played the role of playoff spoiler two out of the pastthree years, Bulls fans yearn for more. And according to our assessment, they have a reason to -- pardon the pun -- be bullish.
The Bulls have a lot of young talent, headlined by Derrick Rose -- the 21-year-oldpoint guard has the potential to be the league MVP someday and figured heavily into the Bulls ranking seventh in the players category. Rose will have supportfrom Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and, if he sticks around, Tyrus Thomas.
Even more encouraging should be the Bulls' top-six rankings in the money and market categories. We project the Bulls to have max or near-max salary-caproom in 2010. Given the desirability of the city, the glamour of the franchise (thanks, MJ) and the opportunity to play with a superstar point guard, we thinkthey're likely to land another star to run alongside Rose.
So what's holding the Bulls back from an even higher overall ranking? We have questions about them in the management category, starting withheavy-handed owner Jerry Reinsdorf and extending down to new GM Gar Forman and neophyte head coach Vinny Del Negro. The Bulls over the years have seemed paralyzed at key moments: They hesitatedin hiring Mike D'Antoni and ended up with Del Negro, and they've passed on several great opportunities to land a post player while overvaluing andshowing great reluctance to trade their young players.
So while the Bulls, on paper, have the potential to become contenders with some shrewd moves, their track record of the past few seasons means we have ourreservations about their ability to actually pull it off.
[h3]8. San Antonio Spurs | Future Power Rating: 606[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]208 (14th)[/td] [td]189 (1st)[/td] [td]105 (12th)[/td] [td]67 (9th)[/td] [td]37 (22nd)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Spurs have been the league's model franchise over the course of the past decade. While they're showing signs of slippage on the court, theyshould remain a winning team for the foreseeable future.
The roster is a concern but has promise, too, leading to a middle-of-the-pack ranking in the players category. Two of the big three for San Antonio are nowmoving past their prime: Tim Duncan (33) and Manu Ginobili (32) should still have some solid seasons in them, but we expect diminishingreturns. But the sage Spurs also have some youth: Tony Parker (27) and Richard Jefferson (29) remain in their prime, and George Hill (23), DeJuan Blair (20) and recent draftee Tiago Splitter (24) appear to have bright futures.
Even more encouraging is the league's top-ranked management team, led by Gregg Popovich, R.C. Buford and supportive ownership. Popovich and Buford havea shown a brilliant touch when it comes to talent evaluation, the draft, cap management and team chemistry. Given that, and with the Spurs looking atsignificant cap room in 2011, we think they'll spend wisely to keep the Spurs in contention. Despite the occasional misfire (e.g., trading Luis Scola, drafting Ian Mahinmi), the Spurs' brainpower and spending power make it hard to be pessimisticabout their future.
[h3]9. Cleveland Cavaliers | Future Power Rating: 554[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]284 (4th)[/td] [td]100 (17th)[/td] [td]90 (20th)[/td] [td]51 (15th)[/td] [td]29 (25th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Cleveland was the toughest team in the league torank.
If the Cavs lose LeBron next summer, they're suddenly hanging out with the Kings, Bucks and Bobcats at the bottom of the barrel. If they re-sign him,LeBron alone guarantees the Cavs will be a force in the playoffs. At the moment, we're leaning toward the proposition that LeBron is staying -- that'show the Cavs ended up 10th in the rankings. But that is far from a foregone conclusion.
LeBron alone pushed the Cavs to fourth in our rankings of the current rosters and their potential. He's that good. The supporting cast leaves a lot tobe desired, especially in terms of age. Mo Williams and Anderson Varejao are solid, but three key players -- Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anthony Parker -- are all on the wrong side of their 34th birthdays; Shaq will be 38 thisseason.
The Cavs didn't do nearly as well in any other category. Mike Brown has been agood defensive coach for Cleveland, but we have major concerns about his ability to get offense out of anyone but LeBron. Meanwhile, management and ownershiphave had such a "win now" mentality that they've utterly failed to surround LeBron with top-line talent for him to grow with -- their big move tobring in a young star, the signing of Larry Hughes, was a flop. The Cavs have littlecap flexibility and probably will continue to draft late in the first round.
Should LeBron seriously decide to look elsewhere next summer, the Bulls, Heat and Thunder, according to our rankings, offer him a better chance to winlong-term and play alongside other young superstars, and all three have the money to pay him.
And while Cleveland has never been anyone's idea of a great market, we could have ranked the franchise higher in that category, for a perverse reason --it's really the main reason for LeBron to re-sign with the Cavs. He's from Ohio, he's has deep roots, and it will be hard for him to leavehome.
[h3]10. Denver Nuggets | Future Power Rating: 545[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]254 (8th)[/td] [td]134 (11th)[/td] [td]85 (23rd)[/td] [td]51 (16th)[/td] [td]22 (28th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Nuggets are largely a veteran team, but the future remains fairly rosy because their few young players are so good. Leading the way, of course, isCarmelo Anthony, who looks like an absolute monster this year and at 25 has severalproductive years ahead of him. Rookie guard Ty Lawson is another keeper, while ifJ.R. Smith (24) is a potential star if he can keep his head on straight. Meanwhile,Nene (27) provides a solid keeper in the middle, and Denver still has the rights to LinasKleiza (24).
In these ratings, we had a difference of opinion on the Nuggets' management, with Denver's ability to unearth diamonds in the rough weighing in itsfavor but its history of assembling combustible chemistry working against it. On available money, however, we saw eye to eye, and that's Denver'sbiggest issue going forward. Denver could potentially have some cap space in 2011, when Kenyon Martin's onerous deal comes off the books, but the Nuggetswill be a tax team next year with their starting five alone and don't have the kind of market that can profitably support such a large payroll.
Fortunately they're owned by Wal-Mart heir Stan Kroenke, but if things take a turn for the worse, the Nuggets could be forced into fire-sale mode, asthey were a year ago with the Marcus Camby trade.
As with other highly ranked teams, Denver's one poor score came in the draft. It's difficult to imagine the Nuggets getting a high draft pick at anytime in the near future.
[h3]11. Los Angeles Clippers | Future Power Rating: 544[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]242 (9th)[/td] [td]44 (27th)[/td] [td]129 (5th)[/td] [td]60 (11th)[/td] [td]70 (6th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Why would we be optimistic about the Clippers' future when their past has been so awful?
Perhaps we're just among the countless suckers roped in by the franchise's potential, but it's hard to deny that the Clips have several assetsin their favor. With top overall pick Blake Griffin, a rising star in guard Eric Gordon and a productive center in Chris Kaman, their nucleus seems solid; additionally, players like Baron Davis and AlThornton should remain productive assets. The Clippers also should have a high draft pick this year and have a pick from Minnesota that could turn into ahigh lottery choice by 2012; as a result they finished sixth in the draft category.
Then there's the cap space the Clips can look forward to this summer. If they use it wisely, they'll be able to find the missing piece, a qualitysmall forward, that would give them one of the league's top starting lineups. And while the franchise has had a reputation for parsimony, lately it'sbeen a lot more willing to spend.
The market helps, too. Los Angeles is like a tractor beam for players, and while the Clippers are undoubtedly L.A.'s "B" team, they finallyhave a real practice facility and have shed some of the low-rent, shoddy label that shadowed them during the 1980s and '90s.
All of that largely offsets one huge negative: the management. Owner Donald Sterling makes anyone's short list of the worst owners in the history ofsports, while coach/GM Mike Dunleavy has a track record that's uneven at best. If anyone can screw this up, it's the Clippers. But it's going totake some doing to screw it up.
[h3]12. Boston Celtics | Future Power Rating: 532[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]182 (17th)[/td] [td]147 (5th)[/td] [td]107 (9th)[/td] [td]68 (7th)[/td] [td]28 (26th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Boston's window for another NBA title is open now, which is why our future view of them is much more pessimistic. The Celtics' core ofKevin Garnett (33), Paul Pierce (31), RayAllen (33) and Rajon Rondo (23) is among the best in the league, but age andinjuries will continue to catch up with them.
With the exception of Rondo and role players Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis, the team is devoid of young talent that can build a bridge to the future. Thatexplains why the Celtics are ranked just 17th in the players category, based on the how the current roster will look over the next few years. And given theirlikely success over the next two seasons, their draft positioning is also a weakness for the near future, as we believe the Celtics will be drafting somewherebetween No. 20 and No. 30 in two of the three offseasons in our rankings.
Now for some good news: Boston is a great town and has become a top destination for players in recent years. The Celtics have terrific ownership, a creativeand patient GM in Danny Ainge, and a respected coach in Doc Rivers. Considering all of that and the salary cap space they will have in the summer of2011 or, more likely, 2012, the Celtics will have opportunities to restock.
Though the Celts are likely to slip from the league's upper crust after this season or 2010-11, they should be in a strong enough position to bounceback into contention more quickly than they did during their previous rebuilding effort, which took more than a decade.
[h3]13. New Jersey Nets | Future Power Rating: 529[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]158 (23rd)[/td] [td]95 (18th)[/td] [td]135 (3rd)[/td] [td]52 (13th)[/td] [td]90 (1st)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Nets were one of the more difficult teams for us to rank, because the franchise should change dramatically over the next few years. No one even knowswhere they'll be playing, whether in East Rutherford, Newark, Brooklyn or perhaps somewhere else altogether.
The future of the current roster is hazy, too. Devin Harris and Brook Lopez will likely stick around, but the rest of the Nets' roster is a questionmark. Yi Jianlian and Terrence Williams have talent but are unproven. Courtney Lee looked promising in Orlando, but he's already 24 and it's unclear howhigh his ceiling is.
Then again, while we know they'll be awful this year, the Nets rate very highly in the money category, with about $24 million in salary cap roomavailable next summer, so things can change quickly, assuming the Nets will spend.
Team ownership is also in flux, along with the big project to move the Nets to Brooklyn. In fact, given the current state of affairs, and the hurdles thatremain, we have to assume there is a good chance Bruce Ratner remains the owner and the Nets are stuck in New Jersey -- therefore, we hedged our bets and putthe Nets in the middle in both the market and management categories. If the Nets are cleared to begin breaking ground in Brooklyn and Russian billionaireMikhail Prokhorov is approved as the new owner, both rankings will go up significantly, given how aggressive we expect Prokhorov would be.
Another reason for optimism: The Nets rated first in future draft positioning -- no team is better positioned to make a splash in the draft the next fewyears. The Nets should have a top-5 pick in the 2010 draft; they also own the unprotected rights to the Mavericks' first pick this year as well as afuture, protected Warriors first-rounder.
[h3]14. Houston Rockets | Future Power Rating: 522[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]122 (25th)[/td] [td]156 (2nd)[/td] [td]124 (7th)[/td] [td]62 (10th)[/td] [td]59 (11th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
"In Daryl We Trust" might be Houston's motto going forward. The Rockets didn't get high scores in a lot of other categories, but theRockets' management came in second on our list despite the fact that GM Daryl Morey has been at the helm for only three years. The reason? His ability tofind quality role players on the cheap, as he's masterfully done this season while $40 million in star power sits on the sidelines with injuries.
Alas, Houston's roster going forward is not among the league's elite, ranking just 25th in our survey. Yao Ming is 29, and his future durability is a major question, and while youngsters Trevor Ariza, AaronBrooks, Carl Landry and Kyle Lowry seem to be keepers, nobody expects them to turn into major stars.
Houston's cap situation is a positive, though. The Rockets could potentially have some money in 2010, and perhaps a bit more in 2011, although thelatter scenario works only if Yao becomes a free agent. In any case, ownership's willingness to pay the luxury tax works in the Rockets' favor.
Houston's market is a plus. Several NBA players stay there in the offseason -- apparently miserable, spirit-breaking heat and humidity is considereddesirable among ballers -- and Texas' lack of a state income tax means players can keep more of what they earn.
Houston finished in the middle of the pack in the draft tables, based partly on the expectation that they might be a lottery team this year. But we mightneed to revise that assumption if they keep playing well.
[h3]15. Detroit Pistons | Future Power Rating: 514[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]174 (20th)[/td] [td]147 (6th)[/td] [td]92 (18th)[/td] [td]51 (14th)[/td] [td]50 (16th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The good news for Pistons fans is that they have terrific, innovative management that knows how to build a winner. Joe Dumars has been a model GM over the past decade and appears determined to mold his newgeneration of Pistons into a winner again. Given his track record, it's hard to bet against Joe D.
Once again, Dumars has gone with the "no star" approach to building a team, adding Rodney Stuckey, BenGordon and Charlie Villanueva to holdovers Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince. They're all nice players, but none of them can carry a team. The Pistonsshould excel offensively but will struggle mightily to carry on the Detroit tradition of blue-collar defense.
That means it's hard to see how the current mix can live up to what the last generation of Pistons accomplished -- an impressive six-year streak ofplaying in the Eastern Conference finals, with an NBA title in 2004. This group has potential, but not championship potential.
Can the Pistons bring in the missing pieces they need to complete the picture? While the franchise has some cachet, Detroit isn't much of a free-agentmagnet, given the cold winters and a city that's seen better days. More problematic, the Pistons spent virtually all of their cap flexibility this pastsummer and still have major needs in the frontcourt. While Dumars may be able to move Hamilton or Prince to address the team's weaknesses, giving up a coreplayer isn't usually a part of a winning formula.
[h3]16. Toronto Raptors | Future Power Rating: 487[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]202 (15th)[/td] [td]101 (14th)[/td] [td]94 (15th)[/td] [td]48 (18th)[/td] [td]42 (17th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Toronto is one of those teams that look destined to be on the playoff bubble for the next few years.
The Raptors do have a star, Chris Bosh, though he has given some indications thathe might leave Toronto via free agency next summer. The rest of their squad includes a few solid veterans, such as Hedo Turkoglu and JoseCalderon, and some intriguing but unproven players like Andrea Bargnani andDeMar DeRozan. It's a nice core if they can manage to keep Bosh, but it's notstrong enough to make the Raptors a contender.
Bryan Colangelo is an astute GM who showed a magic touch in Phoenix, but he's been less successful putting together a consistent winner in Toronto --despite a flurry of moves, the team regressed last season. Colangelo's wheeling and dealing this summer made the team better, but also hindered the capflexibility they might have had going forward. If Bosh stays, this is essentially the team they're stuck with. And if Bosh leaves, it's doubtful theycan replace him with someone as good.
Toronto has proven to be a desirable market for international players (see Turkoglu et al.), but a number of elite American athletes have wanted out overthe years (see Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter and perhaps Bosh). The cold, the cultural differences and the tax issues have allproved to be detriments to what is otherwise a lovely city.
And given the Raptors' expected performance as a bubble playoff team, their draft positioning should be just so-so as well. It's possible to findplayers in the middle of the first round, but rarely do you find stars.
[h3]17. Dallas Mavericks | Future Power Rating: 481[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]154 (24th)[/td] [td]136 (10th)[/td] [td]107 (10th)[/td] [td]68 (8th)[/td] [td]16 (29th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Mavericks were once the dregs of the NBA, but since owner Mark Cuban took the helm, they have been in contention year after year.
On paper, that era appears to be ending. Their still-impressive roster is aging quickly: Jason Kidd (36), ErickDampier (34), Jason Terry (32), Dirk Nowitzki (31), ShawnMarion (31) and Josh Howard (29) can't keep going forever. The trade ofDevin Harris and two first-round draft picks for Kidd was a move to win now, notlater.
Barring some miraculous maneuvers, the Mavs might be essentially starting from scratch in a couple of years, even if their current core is still able tocontribute. While 21-year-old point guard Rodrigue Beaubois has created some hype and24-year-old Kris Humphries has looked like a solid contributor, the Mavs'pipeline is otherwise utterly dry. And the free-spending Mavs are capped out until 2011, or more likely, 2012.
The good news is that the Mavs have a dynamic, popular owner and his management team has proved to be creative in handling the roster and the Mavs'perpetual lack of salary cap space. And the franchise has some assets (including Dampier's non-guaranteed contract) that we expect it to useaggressively.
Furthermore, Dallas is often on the short list of favored destinations for players, thanks to Cuban and the team's success. So while it's hard tosee the Mavs maintaining their incredible streak of nine consecutive seasons with 50 or more wins, it's hard to count them out, too.
[h3]18. Atlanta Hawks | Future Power Rating: 480[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]224 (12th)[/td] [td]72 (23rd)[/td] [td]96 (13th)[/td] [td]48 (17th)[/td] [td]40 (21th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
When it comes to the Hawks' future, the big question is where they go from here. Atlanta certainly has a decent stable of players, but one wonderswhether Joe Johnson is in this for the long haul after turning down an extension thisoffseason. The rest of the nucleus consists of three 23-year-olds -- Al Horford,Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams -- each of whom should be productive starters for years to come, but it'squite possible there won't be an All-Star appearance in the offing for any of them.
The other categories presented similar conundrums. Atlanta's ongoing ownership debacle seems closer to resolution after renegade partner Steve Belkinlost an important court ruling, but one still wonders whether they're committed enough to pay the luxury tax. GM Rick Sund has scored well in his firstyear-plus in Hotlanta but got mixed reviews, at best, for his previous work in Seattle and Detroit, while coach Mike Woodson still has detractors even afterhalf a decade at the helm. Those factors limited Atlanta to a 23rd-place ranking in management.
Atlanta's market is theoretically a huge lure for players, many of whom look forward to visiting when wearing other uniforms, but Johnson's warinessto extend is indicative of the general reticence players have shown to work here day-to-day. The draft is another slight negative, as Atlanta's currentperch as the presumptive fourth-best team in the East means they're likely to select in the late teens or early 20s the next couple of years.
[h3]19. Philadelphia 76ers | Future Power Rating: 477[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]234 (11th)[/td] [td]93 (19th)[/td] [td]60 (28th)[/td] [td]37 (22nd)[/td] [td]53 (13th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Philly projects to be a pretty pedestrian team over the next few years.
The Sixers ranked 11th in the players category, based on their nice core of talent: Elton Brand (30), AndreIguodala (25), Thaddeus Young (21), Lou Williams (23), JrueHoliday (19) and Marreese Speights (22).
But that group of players projects to be a fair-to-middling contender for a playoff spot in future seasons, and therein lies the problem. GM Ed Stefanskispent all of his money last summer signing Brand and extending Iguodala, so the Sixers don't have the financial flexibility to make any significantadditions. What's more, if the cap and tax threshold move lower, as expected, the team could be forced to cut payroll. All of this explains why Phillyranked 28th out of 30 teams in the money category.
In the other categories, the 76ers are ordinary at best. The Philly market isn't a major magnet for free agents, and we project the Sixers to bedrafting in the middle of the first round for the next few years. And while Stefanski and ownership have been solid, if undistinguished, we have questionsabout how Eddie Jordan's Princeton offense fits a run-and-gun roster.
If its young players develop into stars, or can be traded for a star or two, Philly's future will look brighter. But right now we expect the franchiseto remain mired in mediocrity.
[h3]20. Indiana Pacers | Future Power Rating: 469[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]158 (22nd)[/td] [td]101 (15th)[/td] [td]107 (11th)[/td] [td]40 (20th)[/td] [td]64 (9th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
It's been almost five years since the infamous brawl in Auburn Hills, and the Pacers are still recovering. Ron Artest, the main culprit among the Pacers, is now in Los Angeles trying to win achampionship. Indiana, meanwhile, is nowhere near the franchise it was then, when it appeared to be the league's best.
The Pacers succeeded in trading away Artest and other bad seeds, but the transactions have left Indiana with a depleted roster that has just one All-Star,Danny Granger. The rest of Granger's supporting cast would be pretty good roleplayers on a championship contender but struggle to carry the load while starting for the Pacers. While young players Roy Hibbert, BrandonRush and Tyler Hansbrough have some talent, not one looks like the kind of starGranger needs to play alongside.
The good news for Pacers fans is that team president Larry Bird and GM David Morway have a plan. They have been methodically cleansing the roster and savingup salary cap space for 2011. Once Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, JeffFoster and T.J. Ford come off the books, the Pacers can go strongly after acouple of top-tier free agents to play with Granger.
If the Pacers can lure stars to Indiana, their future should be a lot brighter than our rankings suggest. On the other hand, if we assume their acquisitionswill be more modest, the Pacers appear to be a marginal playoff contender in future seasons.
[h3]21. New York Knicks | Future Power Rating: 465[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]78 (28th)[/td] [td]101 (16th)[/td] [td]173 (1st)[/td] [td]73 (3rd)[/td] [td]40 (20th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The assumption for the past year or so has been that the Knicks' future is really bright. But a closer examination reveals that assumption may have beenlittle more than wishful thinking.
Yes, the Knicks have a lot of money to spend in 2010 and an owner, James Dolan, who is eager to write the checks. Yes, New York is one of the top playerdestinations in the NBA, for the city itself, for the MSG atmosphere and for the endorsement possibilities.
Yes, they have the most player-friendly coach in the league, Mike D'Antoni, whose fun, up-tempo style of play is something many players crave -- andD'Antoni also has strong personal relationships with potential free agents LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant and Chris Bosh, thanks to his stint as anassistant coach on Team USA. And yes, GM Donnie Walsh is a legend who, once upon a time, helped turn the Pacers into a championship contender.
But here's the problem: The Knicks' current roster is a mess, and it won't be easy to fill in all the potholes, even with an expected $25million in cap room. Our assumption here is that New York won't land LeBron James (if that changes, they'll shoot up these ratings) and will probablyhave a summer haul more akin to what the Pistons did last summer.
Two solid free agents would be a start. But what about the supporting cast? Danilo Gallinari looks promising. Wilson Chandler is a contributor. Jordan Hillmight help down the road. David Lee and Nate Robinson could also be part of the core, but both are unrestricted free agents next summer and their future withthe team is seriously in doubt. Factor in this, as well: Utah owns the Knicks' 2010 first-round draft pick, likely a high lottery pick. (Ouch!)
So all in all, it's unlikely we'll see the Knicks' fortunes change as dramatically as some expect from 2010 to 2013. Playoff team? Plausible.Contender? Not so much.
[h3]22. Minnesota Timberwolves | Future Power Rating: 426[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]170 (21st)[/td] [td]47 (26th)[/td] [td]123 (8th)[/td] [td]19 (28th)[/td] [td]68 (7th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Timberwolves' roster and its potential might have been the hardest to rank of any team's, because so much of its future is in flux at this verymoment. With Ricky Rubio in Spain for an indeterminate time, Al Jefferson still recovering from an ACL injury and rookie Jonny Flynn having only a few games ofNBA ball under his belt, it's hard to know what to make of their future just yet.
Management was another iffy area. New GM David Kahn has been on the job for only a few months, and while he seems far more enlightened regarding the salarycap than Kevin McHale, his predecessor, was, we've yet to see whether any of his moves have worked out or not. The big negative dragging the Timberwolvesdown in this category was owner Glen Taylor, whose reputation took a beating as a result of McHale's inexplicably lengthy tenure.
But the Wolves can count on having a good salary-cap situation going forward. Minnesota will be well under the cap next summer and has all but completelyexpunged the onerous contracts McHale saddled the team with during his ruinous reign. Additionally, Minnesota should get help from the draft. Though the Wolvesowe the Clippers a future pick that could prove to be a high lottery pick, they own a pick from Charlotte with roughly equal terms.
The Minnesota market will hold them back in free agency, however. The long, cold winters are a major drawback for players, as is the franchise's currentrebuilding program. To date, the team hasn't done much to offset the negative perception.
[h3]23. New Orleans Hornets | Future Power Rating: 422[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]218 (13th)[/td] [td]79 (20th)[/td] [td]50 (30th)[/td] [td]34 (25th)[/td] [td]42 (18th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
For a team with a young superstar in Chris Paul, the Hornets rated awfully poorly in our assessment.
The reason comes down to money: New Orleans' untenable cap situation and lack of financial resources placed it dead last among the league's 30 teamsin that category. The Hornets are over the luxury tax at the moment and could be as much as $10-12 million over next year's threshold, which maynecessitate salary dumping in the near future, because the market is barely viable even if the team stays under the tax. That's the case even if the teamis moderately successful. If the Hornets lose and attendance craters, we could see a fire sale.
With no cap space, it's also very hard for the team to add players around Paul, and the Hornets haven't shown a great knack for using their limitedresources wisely. Free-agent splurges on Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson and James Posey have turned into disasters, while the team shooed away young talentslike J.R. Smith and Brandon Bass. The ownership of George Shinn is another question mark, though he's been less of a liability on the bayou than he was inCharlotte.
Even with Paul aboard, New Orleans' roster and its potential ranked no better than in the middle of the pack overall -- he's the team's onlygood young player. And because of his presence, they'll probably be picking in the mid-to-late first round for the next year or two, limiting their abilityto improve through the draft.
Thus, looking ahead, one has to wonder if CP3's stay in New Orleans will mirror Kevin Garnett's frustrating final years in Minnesota.
[h3]24. Washington Wizards | Future Power Rating: 419[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]178 (19th)[/td] [td]77 (21st)[/td] [td]77 (25th)[/td] [td]46 (19th)[/td] [td]41 (19th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Surprised to see the Wizards 25th on this list? At first we were too, since it's not any one thing that put them there. But Washington was a littlebelow average across the board and has a terrible cap situation, combining to make its future look quite a bit less promising than its present.
Let's start with the players -- Washington's core trio of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler is getting on in years and has had troublestaying healthy. While the Wizards have promising young players (Andray Blatche, Nick Young and JaVale McGee), none has gone beyond showing flashes. And asever in Washington, there's a glaring lack of defensive talent.
In terms of management, Ernie Grunfeld's salary decisions have caused some head-scratching, most notably the ones to re-up Jamison and Arenas two yearsago to reunite a .500 nucleus at great cost. That put Washington below the league average despite a proven coach in Flip Saunders.
In terms of money, the Wizards are in especially bad shape. Washington is heavily into the luxury tax this year and will have to let several players walk ifit hopes to avoid the same fate next year; ownership may demand the latter scenario if the Wizards can't challenge the East's elite this season, as AbePollin's pockets go only so deep. There's nothing to offset those weaknesses. D.C.'s market is solid but unspectacular -- while it's a big citywith plenty of attractions, this is a ******** town and the District has high taxes, plus it's not exactly balmy in winter, and the franchise itself haslittle cachet.
The draft may not provide much help in the immediate future, either, as the Wizards' 2010 pick will likely be in the teens and they have no future picksfrom other teams.
[h3]25. Memphis Grizzlies | Future Power Rating: 377[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]180 (18th)[/td] [td]10 (29th)[/td] [td]89 (22nd)[/td] [td]14 (30th)[/td] [td]84 (2nd)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Grizzlies' future ranks near the bottom despite the promise of a very solid talent base going forward. With the likes of Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, O.J.Mayo, Marc Gasol and Hasheem Thabeet, few teams have more young players with such potential. While none are quite stars, at least yet, they give the Grizzliesa decent core going forward and ranked them in the middle of the NBA pack in the players category.
Additionally, Memphis should get another big dollop of talent in next year's draft, thanks to its own annual high lottery pick and choices owed it byDenver and the Lakers -- as a result, only New Jersey ranked higher in the draft category.
Unfortunately, three big negatives more than offset those strengths.
First is the money category. Although Memphis could have substantial cap space in 2011, it's an open question whether owner Michael Heisley will bewilling to use it after giving away Pau Gasol in a fire sale two years ago, especially if the Griz keep drawing paltry crowds to FedEx Forum.
Additionally, there's the larger question of whether they could use the space successfully. With Heisley essentially usurping GM Chris Wallace'spower over most important basketball decisions, Memphis has embarked upon a series of dim-witted moves (moving Pau Gasol, acquiring Zach Randolph and AllenIverson) to keep the team cemented in the lottery. Only Golden State's management rated lower in our survey.
Finally, there's the market. Given the team's reputation and the city's limited diversions, Memphis ranked dead last in desirability as adestination, something that may limit the team's ability to improve via free agency in 2011.
[h3]26. Golden State Warriors | Future Power Rating: 372[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]188 (16th)[/td] [td]9 (30th)[/td] [td]76 (26th)[/td] [td]34 (24th)[/td] [td]66 (8th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
There was a moment, albeit a brief one, when the Warriors weren't the laughingstock of the league. It was only two years ago, and they had just upsetthe top-seeded Dallas Mavericks. Bay Area fans went wild, and the Warriors' future wasbright. Their motto: We Believe!
And then it all fell apart again as quickly as it came together.
Owner Chris Cohan decided to ignore and eventually fire general manager ChrisMullin, who had engineered the dynamic roster that had put the Warriors in the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons, ending the NBA's worst run offutility. Cohan gave Mullin's authority to his own crony, Robert Rowell, head coach Don Nelson and Nelson's buddy Larry Riley, and the result has beena run of disastrous decisions that shows no signs of abating.
A series of questionable trades, absurd contract extensions and pointless free-agent signings has led to a mismatched roster than seems to be disaffected,confused and looking for the exit door, thanks in large part to Nelson's bizarre coaching style, which offsets his very enjoyable go-go style of play.Furthermore, the franchise's disarray and perpetual lottery status has discouraged star players from coming to what otherwise would be considered one ofthe NBA's prime destinations, and in any case, the team has already used up its salary-cap space and has little flexibility.
Add it all up and you have the worst management team in the NBA.
The upside: a bevy of young players, drafted mostly by Mullin. Monta Ellis (24),Stephen Curry (21), Anthony Randolph (20), Andris Biedrins (23) and Brandan Wright (22) all have enormous potential. But questions about their defensive ability,how well they'll fit and how Nelson will develop them have us tempering our enthusiasm, despite their evident talent. And the Warriors still have anundersized backcourt, no low-post scoring presence, and an unhappy Stephen Jackson,whose contract extension runs throughout the entire period of our rankings (to 2013, that is).
If Cohan sells the team and the Warriors hire a competent management team and a new coach, their fortunes could change quickly, given their talent. But fornow, Golden State is the most dysfunctional team in a league that has several strong candidates for that title.
[h3]27. Phoenix Suns | Future Power Rating: 365[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]112 (26th)[/td] [td]56 (25th)[/td] [td]94 (16th)[/td] [td]69 (5th)[/td] [td]35 (24th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Of all the teams we ranked, the Suns were the ones that caused the biggest double-take between us. The Suns have the 27th-brightest future? Really?
Isn't this the team that led the mighty Western Conference in 2008? Aren't they once again leading the West at the moment? Don't they still havesuperstars Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire? Are things really so bad?
Yeah, things are bad.
Let's go right to the roster that's been one of the NBA's best for the past five seasons. For starters, Nash and Stoudemire have big asterisksnext to their names. Nash turns 36 in February and Stoudemire, coming off serious eye surgery, can be an unrestricted free agent next summer. The rest of theircore includes 37-year-old Grant Hill, Jason Richardson (29 in January) and sixth man Leandro Barbosa (already 27 later this month). Youngsters Earl Clark and RobinLopez have potential but so far are role players at best.
While owner Robert Sarver has shown a willingness to spend at times during his confusing tenure, the signs in that department are discouraging as well.Lately the Suns have looked to cut costs, and in doing so have shipped out both ShawnMarion and Shaquille O'Neal while shopping Stoudemire. (That's not tomention their maddening policy of selling draft picks rather than restocking with young, inexpensive talent.) All in all, the Sarver administration hassquandered an opportunity to make the Suns the league's marquee franchise and instead made them a team trying to avoid a second straight appearance in thelottery.
Steve Kerr's tenure has been noteworthy mostly for his shocking andsemi-disastrous acquisition of Shaq, though he has since reversed course and reconstructed a running team. And the departure of Mike D'Antoni further hurtsthe Suns' score in the management category, even if Alvin Gentry has succeeded in restoring the Suns' speed game.
The draft won't help either, at least in the short term: Oklahoma City owns the Suns' 2010 first-round pick.
The bright side for the Suns is that players have shown a lot of interest in playing in Phoenix in the past, and the Suns will have some salary-cap space in2011 if they don't re-sign Stoudemire. But most signs at the moment point to Sarver putting the savings into his pocket, not his roster.
[h3]28. Sacramento Kings | Future Power Rating: 343[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]86 (27th)[/td] [td]74 (22nd)[/td] [td]75 (27th)[/td] [td]30 (26th)[/td] [td]78 (3rd)[/td] [/tr][/table]
It's always darkest before the dawn, as they say, and in Sacramento they're still waiting for the sun to come up. The Kings' roster has a fewintriguing young players -- Tyreke Evans, Jason Thompson, OmriCasspi and Spencer Hawes -- and an established star in Kevin Martin, but several holes remain.
The front office would have rated at or near the top several years ago, but the Kings seem to have lost their touch since then. Horrific contracts for thelikes of Beno Udrih and Francisco Garcia unnecessarily prolonged a salary-cap hangover from the glory days, one thatwould have been far worse if Bonzi Wells hadn't foolishly turned down a ridiculousfive-year, $36 million offer three years ago.
As it is, Sacramento won't be under the cap until 2011, and even then it won't have oodles of cap room to use. Udrih, Garcia and Andres Nocioni -- three peripheral players -- will eat up a third of its cap as late as 2012.Additionally, the Kings are among the league's poorest teams at the moment, with dated Arco Arena producing paltry revenues, and as a result are lookingmuch harder at slashing payroll than adding to it.
The Sacramento market isn't what it once was either. While the Maloof brothers have treated their players well and the team's up-tempo style isalluring, Sacramento's weaknesses go deeper than a lack of most favored dining establishments. It's a small market with high state taxes, the Kings arerebuilding, and the uncertainty about the team's future in Sacramento means players might find themselves "traded" to a different city even ifthey don't change rosters.
About the only thing Sacramento can look forward to are high draft picks. With the immediate future looking rather gloomy, the Kings have the third-rosiestdraft outlook.
[h3]29. Milwaukee Bucks | Future Power Rating: 319[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]74 (29th)[/td] [td]64 (24th)[/td] [td]90 (21st)[/td] [td]15 (29th)[/td] [td]77 (4th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
There must be days when Milwaukee general manager John Hammond wonders what he got himself into. When he left the highly successful Pistons to take theBucks job, the goal was to spend money, be aggressive and push the team back into the playoffs. Then the recession hit and the Bucks, over the past year, havebeen in slash-and-burn mode, on orders from owner Herb Kohl. They traded away RichardJefferson to the Spurs for cap relief and let free agents Charlie Villanueva andRamon Sessions walk last summer.
The remaining roster is a mess. Michael Redd is a fading star. Andrew Bogut is solid but overpaid. Recent lottery pick Joe Alexander has been a bust. Rookie Brandon Jennings looks like the bright hope of the franchise, but he may be doing it alonefor the next few years. The rest of the roster is littered with role players.
The Bucks are projected to have some cap room in 2011, but given the financial status of their owner combined with the weak appeal of Milwaukee as adestination among NBA free agents, no one's expecting them to land a big catch.
Jennings aside, the best bit of good news for Bucks fans comes in the draft category, because Milwaukee should be selecting high in the lottery for at leasta couple of years. If the Bucks draft smartly (see Jennings), they should be able to put some great talent around their young point guard. If they don't(see Alexander), it may be a decade before we see Milwaukee as a contender again.
[h3]30. Charlotte Bobcats | Future Power Rating: 214[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]46 (30th)[/td] [td]32 (28th)[/td] [td]60 (29th)[/td] [td]22 (27th)[/td] [td]54 (12th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
If you think the Bobcats' present is bad, just wait 'til you see their future.
Charlotte ranked as the league's most hopeless franchise in our survey, finishing in the bottom four in every category except one. Even that category,the draft, came with an asterisk: Charlotte ranked well because we expect it to struggle and get high picks, but a future choice it foolishly traded away forthe rights to Alexis Ajinca last year could end up costing the Cats a high lotterypick. That's why they ranked only 12th rather than in the top four.
There's not much to like here. Charlotte has no cap space until 2011 at the earliest, limited financial resources and a rep for being tight-fisted,ranking the Bobcats 29th in the money category. The Queen City is a small market with no buzz, placing the Bobcats 27th in the market category. And the rosteris nothing to write home about either, as .J. Augustin is the only young player withanything remotely resembling star potential. Most of the other key players are in their late 20s and will be getting worse, not better, in coming years.
Finally, there's the management -- only Golden State's and Memphis' rated worse. Owner Robert Johnson has seemed to be in over his head from Day1, while Managing Member of Basketball Operations Michael Jordan allegedly runs theteam while mulling which iron to play from a fairway bunker in Illinois. That's left impulsive coach Larry Brown shaping a lot of the day-to-day personneldecisions, with rash moves like the Ajinca trade and the Emeka Okafor-Tyson Chandler deal resulting.
Updated: November 10, 2009, 5:58 PM ET
[h2]Future Power Rankings: Teams 1 to 5[/h2] [h3]How will your favorite team fare in future seasons? Our experts take a close look[/h3]
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By Chad Ford and John Hollinger
ESPN.com
ESPN.com IllustrationThe ESPN.com crystal ball says that the future NBA standings will have some new faces at the top.The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team during the 2010-11,2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons.
[h4]How Future Power Rating Is Determined[/h4] [table][tr][td]PLAYERS (0 to 400 points): Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departures[/td] [/tr][tr][td]MANAGEMENT (0 to 200 points): Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coaching[/td] [/tr][tr][td]MONEY (0 to 200 points): Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax[/td] [/tr][tr][td]MARKET (0 to 100 points): Appeal to future acquisitions, based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans[/td] [/tr][tr][td]DRAFT (0 to 100 points): Future draft picks; draft positioning[/td] [/tr][tr][td]CATEGORY RANKINGS: See how each team ranked in each category[/td] [/tr][/table]
Consider this a convenient way to see in what direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expected each team to perform in the threeseasons following this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category was a team's current players and the future potential of those players -- that categoryaccounted for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputationof the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
To reach our ratings in each category, we talked to teams to get a handle on their future strategies, we looked at their contractual commitments and wecarefully broke down each roster to figure out which players would improve, which would decline and which would likely depart.
We expect these rankings to evolve as the season moves along, trades are made, injuries occur, strategies shift, and so on. Return from time to time as weupdate the rankings.
Here are our current rankings, from 1 to 30:
[h3]Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30[/h3]
[h3]1. Portland Trail Blazers | Future Power Rating: 688[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]354 (2nd)[/td] [td]153 (3rd)[/td] [td]92 (17th)[/td] [td]53 (12th)[/td] [td]37 (23rd)[/td] [/tr][/table]
On paper, no other team possesses as bright a future as the Portland Trail Blazers. It allstarts with the players. Nobody, not even Oklahoma City, can match the stable of young talent the Blazers have built. Brandon Roy is already a superstar, and joining him are potential stars like LaMarcus Aldridge (24), Greg Oden (21, even if he looks more like 51), Nicolas Batum (20) and Martell Webster (22). That doesn't even count the other assets the Blazers have thatcould eventually pan out, such as talented second-year benchwarmer Jerryd Bayless anda veritable farm team in Europe that includes Joel Freeland, Petteri Koponen and Victor Claver.
Portland also gets strong grades in other categories. The management under GM KevinPritchard has been rock-solid, with the only minor quibble being the decision to draft Oden ahead of Kevin Durant -- a decision, one should remember, that all 30 GMs were prepared to make, evenif a lot of fans and analysts weren't. In terms of money, the Blazers have no cap room to speak of for the foreseeable future, but being owned by one ofthe world's wealthiest men in a rabid city where sellouts are the norm means the Blazers can comfortably go into luxury tax and beyond should the needarise.
Portland market didn't score as highly in the market category -- witness Hedo Turkoglu's about-face -- as sad, dreary winters, the nation'shighest state taxes and a relative lack of diversity for a major metropolitan area limit its attractiveness to free agents. They stay in the middle of the packin this category largely due to Allen's largesse, with first-rate team facilities, and the fact that a lot of players grow to like the place oncethey've been there -- it helped bring Steve Blake back, for instance.
The draft is where Portland scored poorly, but even that is a positive in a sense -- with such a bright future, it can expect to pick in the mid-to-late 20sin coming seasons.
[h3]2. Orlando Magic | Future Power Rating: 683[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]356 (1st)[/td] [td]147 (4th)[/td] [td]83 (24th)[/td] [td]73 (4th)[/td] [td]24 (27th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Magic look like one of the league's teams to beat in 2009-10, and we're guessing that will continue to be the case for the following three yearsas well. Orlando is blessed with a young superstar big man in Dwight Howard, and mostof the veteran cast around him -- Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, MickaelPietrus and Vince Carter, for example -- should remain spry enough to contributestrongly to the cause for a few more seasons. There is young talent, too, in BrandonBass, Ryan Anderson, J.J. Redick and MarcinGortat. But it appears we can stop mentioning that they own the rights to Fran Vazquez.
In the front office, the Magic have several strengths -- one of the league's premier coaches in Stan Van Gundy, the committed ownership of the DeVosfamily and an underrated general manager in Otis Smith. That pushed Orlando to a fourth-best finish in this category.
When it comes to money, Orlando has no cap space for the foreseeable future. The Magic are willing to pay the tax, however, despite their small market, andthe new arena that comes online next year should help considerably on the money front.
They also benefit from one of the league's most desirable markets. Orlando's balmy weather, the Magic's winning ways and the lack of state taxesin Florida combine to put them near the top of the list for any prospective free agent.
The one area in which the Magic can't expect much further help is the draft -- it appears they'll be picking somewhere between 27th and 30th for thenext few years.
[h3]3. Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 657[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]318 (3rd)[/td] [td]139 (8th)[/td] [td]95 (14th)[/td] [td]95 (1st)[/td] [td]10 (30th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The NBA champion Lakers might have the best roster in the league for 2009-10. But will they in the following three years? When the 2013 Finals end, Kobe Bryant will be nearly 35, and Pau Gasol, Lamar Odomand Ron Artest will be 32 or older as well. That's why L.A., even with Andrew Bynum on the roster, ranked third behind Orlando and Portland in the Players category,which rates both the current roster and its potential for the next few seasons. Similarly, the Lakers came out third overall in our rankings.
One category that helps is the market. Despite California's high taxes, the Lakers ranked No. 1 in this category, with players loving the team'sfame and success, the good weather and the marketing opportunities that come with playing for the league's marquee franchise. The fact that theirthird-string center has a publicist says it all.
L.A.'s management also rated well, thanks to the strong ownership of Jerry Buss and the recent solid moves by GM Mitch Kupchak after a very iffy startto his reign. It would have rated even higher if we knew whether Phil Jackson would keep coaching beyond this season.
Money-wise, L.A. ranked in the middle of the pack. Though they have little opportunity for cap space in the near future, the Lakers can pay the luxury taxwithout blinking an eye if the right deal comes along -- that's an underrated reason they were able to steal Pau Gasol from Memphis two years ago, forinstance.
But one area in which they won't get any help is the draft. With no first-rounder this year (owed to Memphis for the Gasol plunder) and future pickslikely coming late in the first round, L.A. ranked dead last in that category.
[h3]4. Oklahoma City Thunder | Future Power Rating: 637[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]274 (6th)[/td] [td]139 (9th)[/td] [td]125 (6th)[/td] [td]36 (23rd)[/td] [td]63 (10th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Oklahoma City may not make the playoffs this year, but for the three years that follow, the Thunder's hopes seem as bright as any team's.
It starts with a rapidly improving roster that includes star forward Kevin Durant and rising talents like Russell Westbrook, James Harden and JeffGreen, as well as several intriguing prospects -- Thabo Sefolosha, B.J. Mullens, SergeIbaka and .J. White among them.
Oklahoma City also ranks high in the money category, having more than $10 million to spend this summer on a free-agent splurge to cement its already strongnucleus while maintaining a very good cap situation for future seasons. The only question is whether owner Clay Bennett will commit to spending once the timecomes. But thanks to the strong moves made thus far by GM Sam Presti, OKC earned a ninth-place ranking in the management category.
The Thunder also scored well on the draft, owning both their pick and an unprotected choice from Phoenix in next year's draft before their likelyascension to the back end of the draft in future seasons.
One area in which they didn't fare as well, however, was in the market category. Oklahoma City is the smallest NBA market and plagued by some wildweather, two factors that combine to put it well off the radar for most prospective free agents. But there's hope: The Thunder have an excited fan base,and Oklahoma City might look like a pretty good destination if the Thunder start winning big.
[h3]5. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 636[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]238 (10th)[/td] [td]112 (12th)[/td] [td]146 (2nd)[/td] [td]89 (2nd)[/td] [td]51 (14th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
They might be a one-man band at the moment, but we're very high on Miami's future. The big reason? A confluence of salary-cap space and the abilityto win bidding wars for players.
If Miami plays its cards right, it will have more cap space than any other team in 2010, making the Heat a major player in perhaps the most highlyanticipated free-agent market in league history. Additionally, Miami is poised to win battles with other teams that offer equal money because it is among themost desirable cities for most players. With warm weather, lots of nightlife and no state taxes, only L.A. ranked higher in the market category.
Miami ranked solidly in the other three areas, too. Dwyane Wade is still in hisprime at 27 and, presuming he sticks around, has a very talented cohort in forward Michael Beasley and a second promising piece on guard Mario Chalmers. Additionally, the Heat's management is rock-solid. They have a strongowner in Micky Arison, although he's been reluctant to go into luxury tax. Team president Pat Riley has done solid work when he's stuck to his knittingupstairs, and Miami has a promising young coach in Erik Spoelstra.
The draft should be reasonably helpful as well, with probably a middling pick in 2010 and at some point a lottery-protected first-rounder from Toronto fromthe Jermaine O'Neal trade.
[h3]6. Utah Jazz | Future Power Rating: 624[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]278 (5th)[/td] [td]142 (7th)[/td] [td]91 (19th)[/td] [td]39 (21st)[/td] [td]74 (5th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Jazz have often been among the most underrated teams in the league, and likewise our rankings here expose just how surprisingly dangerous they should begoing forward.
Utah ranked fifth in the players category (the current roster and its potential), because it has significant talent, much of it young. Deron Williams (25) is a star point guard (even if he's never made the All-Star team).Paul Millsap (24) is a tenacious rebounder and Ronnie Brewer (24) has improved every year in the league, while Kosta Koufos (20) and Eric Maynor (22) can become major contributors.
The franchise can keep adding to the talent base via several routes. Carlos Boozeris a useful trade chip, if the Jazz choose to move him this season (before he goes into free agency in 2010). And Utah holds New York's first-round draftpick, likely a high lottery pick, thanks to the Knicks and Suns, who fumbled it away back in 2004. Adding another core player should stand the Jazz in verygood stead for the next four or five seasons.
Utah has a strong front-office team led by the quiet but effective Kevin O'Connor, who has a terrific eye for talent, especially players who can fithead coach Jerry Sloan's style of basketball. He has only a small staff on a tight budget, but no one does more with less than O'Connor. Meanwhile,Sloan is one of the few constants in the NBA, and his success figures strongly into Utah's seventh-place ranking in the management category.
And while Salt Lake City itself is often cited as a liability in attracting NBA players, the Jazz have an excellent record in keeping their core players,and even in signing new players to reasonable contracts and offer sheets (including Boozer, Mehmet Okur, CoreyMaggette and Jason Terry in recent years).
The main limitation the Jazz will have going forward comes in the money category. The team is over the salary cap and looks to stay that way until 2012. Anyadditions they make will have to be through trades and the draft.
[h3]7. Chicago Bulls | Future Power Rating: 609[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]256 (7th)[/td] [td]104 (13th)[/td] [td]130 (4th)[/td] [td]68 (6th)[/td] [td]51 (15th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
A dozen seasons after their most recent title, the Bulls and their fans are still suffering withdrawal pains from the Michael Jordan era. While the team has played the role of playoff spoiler two out of the pastthree years, Bulls fans yearn for more. And according to our assessment, they have a reason to -- pardon the pun -- be bullish.
The Bulls have a lot of young talent, headlined by Derrick Rose -- the 21-year-oldpoint guard has the potential to be the league MVP someday and figured heavily into the Bulls ranking seventh in the players category. Rose will have supportfrom Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and, if he sticks around, Tyrus Thomas.
Even more encouraging should be the Bulls' top-six rankings in the money and market categories. We project the Bulls to have max or near-max salary-caproom in 2010. Given the desirability of the city, the glamour of the franchise (thanks, MJ) and the opportunity to play with a superstar point guard, we thinkthey're likely to land another star to run alongside Rose.
So what's holding the Bulls back from an even higher overall ranking? We have questions about them in the management category, starting withheavy-handed owner Jerry Reinsdorf and extending down to new GM Gar Forman and neophyte head coach Vinny Del Negro. The Bulls over the years have seemed paralyzed at key moments: They hesitatedin hiring Mike D'Antoni and ended up with Del Negro, and they've passed on several great opportunities to land a post player while overvaluing andshowing great reluctance to trade their young players.
So while the Bulls, on paper, have the potential to become contenders with some shrewd moves, their track record of the past few seasons means we have ourreservations about their ability to actually pull it off.
[h3]8. San Antonio Spurs | Future Power Rating: 606[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]208 (14th)[/td] [td]189 (1st)[/td] [td]105 (12th)[/td] [td]67 (9th)[/td] [td]37 (22nd)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Spurs have been the league's model franchise over the course of the past decade. While they're showing signs of slippage on the court, theyshould remain a winning team for the foreseeable future.
The roster is a concern but has promise, too, leading to a middle-of-the-pack ranking in the players category. Two of the big three for San Antonio are nowmoving past their prime: Tim Duncan (33) and Manu Ginobili (32) should still have some solid seasons in them, but we expect diminishingreturns. But the sage Spurs also have some youth: Tony Parker (27) and Richard Jefferson (29) remain in their prime, and George Hill (23), DeJuan Blair (20) and recent draftee Tiago Splitter (24) appear to have bright futures.
Even more encouraging is the league's top-ranked management team, led by Gregg Popovich, R.C. Buford and supportive ownership. Popovich and Buford havea shown a brilliant touch when it comes to talent evaluation, the draft, cap management and team chemistry. Given that, and with the Spurs looking atsignificant cap room in 2011, we think they'll spend wisely to keep the Spurs in contention. Despite the occasional misfire (e.g., trading Luis Scola, drafting Ian Mahinmi), the Spurs' brainpower and spending power make it hard to be pessimisticabout their future.
[h3]9. Cleveland Cavaliers | Future Power Rating: 554[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]284 (4th)[/td] [td]100 (17th)[/td] [td]90 (20th)[/td] [td]51 (15th)[/td] [td]29 (25th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Cleveland was the toughest team in the league torank.
If the Cavs lose LeBron next summer, they're suddenly hanging out with the Kings, Bucks and Bobcats at the bottom of the barrel. If they re-sign him,LeBron alone guarantees the Cavs will be a force in the playoffs. At the moment, we're leaning toward the proposition that LeBron is staying -- that'show the Cavs ended up 10th in the rankings. But that is far from a foregone conclusion.
LeBron alone pushed the Cavs to fourth in our rankings of the current rosters and their potential. He's that good. The supporting cast leaves a lot tobe desired, especially in terms of age. Mo Williams and Anderson Varejao are solid, but three key players -- Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anthony Parker -- are all on the wrong side of their 34th birthdays; Shaq will be 38 thisseason.
The Cavs didn't do nearly as well in any other category. Mike Brown has been agood defensive coach for Cleveland, but we have major concerns about his ability to get offense out of anyone but LeBron. Meanwhile, management and ownershiphave had such a "win now" mentality that they've utterly failed to surround LeBron with top-line talent for him to grow with -- their big move tobring in a young star, the signing of Larry Hughes, was a flop. The Cavs have littlecap flexibility and probably will continue to draft late in the first round.
Should LeBron seriously decide to look elsewhere next summer, the Bulls, Heat and Thunder, according to our rankings, offer him a better chance to winlong-term and play alongside other young superstars, and all three have the money to pay him.
And while Cleveland has never been anyone's idea of a great market, we could have ranked the franchise higher in that category, for a perverse reason --it's really the main reason for LeBron to re-sign with the Cavs. He's from Ohio, he's has deep roots, and it will be hard for him to leavehome.
[h3]10. Denver Nuggets | Future Power Rating: 545[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]254 (8th)[/td] [td]134 (11th)[/td] [td]85 (23rd)[/td] [td]51 (16th)[/td] [td]22 (28th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Nuggets are largely a veteran team, but the future remains fairly rosy because their few young players are so good. Leading the way, of course, isCarmelo Anthony, who looks like an absolute monster this year and at 25 has severalproductive years ahead of him. Rookie guard Ty Lawson is another keeper, while ifJ.R. Smith (24) is a potential star if he can keep his head on straight. Meanwhile,Nene (27) provides a solid keeper in the middle, and Denver still has the rights to LinasKleiza (24).
In these ratings, we had a difference of opinion on the Nuggets' management, with Denver's ability to unearth diamonds in the rough weighing in itsfavor but its history of assembling combustible chemistry working against it. On available money, however, we saw eye to eye, and that's Denver'sbiggest issue going forward. Denver could potentially have some cap space in 2011, when Kenyon Martin's onerous deal comes off the books, but the Nuggetswill be a tax team next year with their starting five alone and don't have the kind of market that can profitably support such a large payroll.
Fortunately they're owned by Wal-Mart heir Stan Kroenke, but if things take a turn for the worse, the Nuggets could be forced into fire-sale mode, asthey were a year ago with the Marcus Camby trade.
As with other highly ranked teams, Denver's one poor score came in the draft. It's difficult to imagine the Nuggets getting a high draft pick at anytime in the near future.
[h3]11. Los Angeles Clippers | Future Power Rating: 544[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]242 (9th)[/td] [td]44 (27th)[/td] [td]129 (5th)[/td] [td]60 (11th)[/td] [td]70 (6th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Why would we be optimistic about the Clippers' future when their past has been so awful?
Perhaps we're just among the countless suckers roped in by the franchise's potential, but it's hard to deny that the Clips have several assetsin their favor. With top overall pick Blake Griffin, a rising star in guard Eric Gordon and a productive center in Chris Kaman, their nucleus seems solid; additionally, players like Baron Davis and AlThornton should remain productive assets. The Clippers also should have a high draft pick this year and have a pick from Minnesota that could turn into ahigh lottery choice by 2012; as a result they finished sixth in the draft category.
Then there's the cap space the Clips can look forward to this summer. If they use it wisely, they'll be able to find the missing piece, a qualitysmall forward, that would give them one of the league's top starting lineups. And while the franchise has had a reputation for parsimony, lately it'sbeen a lot more willing to spend.
The market helps, too. Los Angeles is like a tractor beam for players, and while the Clippers are undoubtedly L.A.'s "B" team, they finallyhave a real practice facility and have shed some of the low-rent, shoddy label that shadowed them during the 1980s and '90s.
All of that largely offsets one huge negative: the management. Owner Donald Sterling makes anyone's short list of the worst owners in the history ofsports, while coach/GM Mike Dunleavy has a track record that's uneven at best. If anyone can screw this up, it's the Clippers. But it's going totake some doing to screw it up.
[h3]12. Boston Celtics | Future Power Rating: 532[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]182 (17th)[/td] [td]147 (5th)[/td] [td]107 (9th)[/td] [td]68 (7th)[/td] [td]28 (26th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Boston's window for another NBA title is open now, which is why our future view of them is much more pessimistic. The Celtics' core ofKevin Garnett (33), Paul Pierce (31), RayAllen (33) and Rajon Rondo (23) is among the best in the league, but age andinjuries will continue to catch up with them.
With the exception of Rondo and role players Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis, the team is devoid of young talent that can build a bridge to the future. Thatexplains why the Celtics are ranked just 17th in the players category, based on the how the current roster will look over the next few years. And given theirlikely success over the next two seasons, their draft positioning is also a weakness for the near future, as we believe the Celtics will be drafting somewherebetween No. 20 and No. 30 in two of the three offseasons in our rankings.
Now for some good news: Boston is a great town and has become a top destination for players in recent years. The Celtics have terrific ownership, a creativeand patient GM in Danny Ainge, and a respected coach in Doc Rivers. Considering all of that and the salary cap space they will have in the summer of2011 or, more likely, 2012, the Celtics will have opportunities to restock.
Though the Celts are likely to slip from the league's upper crust after this season or 2010-11, they should be in a strong enough position to bounceback into contention more quickly than they did during their previous rebuilding effort, which took more than a decade.
[h3]13. New Jersey Nets | Future Power Rating: 529[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]158 (23rd)[/td] [td]95 (18th)[/td] [td]135 (3rd)[/td] [td]52 (13th)[/td] [td]90 (1st)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Nets were one of the more difficult teams for us to rank, because the franchise should change dramatically over the next few years. No one even knowswhere they'll be playing, whether in East Rutherford, Newark, Brooklyn or perhaps somewhere else altogether.
The future of the current roster is hazy, too. Devin Harris and Brook Lopez will likely stick around, but the rest of the Nets' roster is a questionmark. Yi Jianlian and Terrence Williams have talent but are unproven. Courtney Lee looked promising in Orlando, but he's already 24 and it's unclear howhigh his ceiling is.
Then again, while we know they'll be awful this year, the Nets rate very highly in the money category, with about $24 million in salary cap roomavailable next summer, so things can change quickly, assuming the Nets will spend.
Team ownership is also in flux, along with the big project to move the Nets to Brooklyn. In fact, given the current state of affairs, and the hurdles thatremain, we have to assume there is a good chance Bruce Ratner remains the owner and the Nets are stuck in New Jersey -- therefore, we hedged our bets and putthe Nets in the middle in both the market and management categories. If the Nets are cleared to begin breaking ground in Brooklyn and Russian billionaireMikhail Prokhorov is approved as the new owner, both rankings will go up significantly, given how aggressive we expect Prokhorov would be.
Another reason for optimism: The Nets rated first in future draft positioning -- no team is better positioned to make a splash in the draft the next fewyears. The Nets should have a top-5 pick in the 2010 draft; they also own the unprotected rights to the Mavericks' first pick this year as well as afuture, protected Warriors first-rounder.
[h3]14. Houston Rockets | Future Power Rating: 522[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]122 (25th)[/td] [td]156 (2nd)[/td] [td]124 (7th)[/td] [td]62 (10th)[/td] [td]59 (11th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
"In Daryl We Trust" might be Houston's motto going forward. The Rockets didn't get high scores in a lot of other categories, but theRockets' management came in second on our list despite the fact that GM Daryl Morey has been at the helm for only three years. The reason? His ability tofind quality role players on the cheap, as he's masterfully done this season while $40 million in star power sits on the sidelines with injuries.
Alas, Houston's roster going forward is not among the league's elite, ranking just 25th in our survey. Yao Ming is 29, and his future durability is a major question, and while youngsters Trevor Ariza, AaronBrooks, Carl Landry and Kyle Lowry seem to be keepers, nobody expects them to turn into major stars.
Houston's cap situation is a positive, though. The Rockets could potentially have some money in 2010, and perhaps a bit more in 2011, although thelatter scenario works only if Yao becomes a free agent. In any case, ownership's willingness to pay the luxury tax works in the Rockets' favor.
Houston's market is a plus. Several NBA players stay there in the offseason -- apparently miserable, spirit-breaking heat and humidity is considereddesirable among ballers -- and Texas' lack of a state income tax means players can keep more of what they earn.
Houston finished in the middle of the pack in the draft tables, based partly on the expectation that they might be a lottery team this year. But we mightneed to revise that assumption if they keep playing well.
[h3]15. Detroit Pistons | Future Power Rating: 514[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]174 (20th)[/td] [td]147 (6th)[/td] [td]92 (18th)[/td] [td]51 (14th)[/td] [td]50 (16th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The good news for Pistons fans is that they have terrific, innovative management that knows how to build a winner. Joe Dumars has been a model GM over the past decade and appears determined to mold his newgeneration of Pistons into a winner again. Given his track record, it's hard to bet against Joe D.
Once again, Dumars has gone with the "no star" approach to building a team, adding Rodney Stuckey, BenGordon and Charlie Villanueva to holdovers Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince. They're all nice players, but none of them can carry a team. The Pistonsshould excel offensively but will struggle mightily to carry on the Detroit tradition of blue-collar defense.
That means it's hard to see how the current mix can live up to what the last generation of Pistons accomplished -- an impressive six-year streak ofplaying in the Eastern Conference finals, with an NBA title in 2004. This group has potential, but not championship potential.
Can the Pistons bring in the missing pieces they need to complete the picture? While the franchise has some cachet, Detroit isn't much of a free-agentmagnet, given the cold winters and a city that's seen better days. More problematic, the Pistons spent virtually all of their cap flexibility this pastsummer and still have major needs in the frontcourt. While Dumars may be able to move Hamilton or Prince to address the team's weaknesses, giving up a coreplayer isn't usually a part of a winning formula.
[h3]16. Toronto Raptors | Future Power Rating: 487[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]202 (15th)[/td] [td]101 (14th)[/td] [td]94 (15th)[/td] [td]48 (18th)[/td] [td]42 (17th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Toronto is one of those teams that look destined to be on the playoff bubble for the next few years.
The Raptors do have a star, Chris Bosh, though he has given some indications thathe might leave Toronto via free agency next summer. The rest of their squad includes a few solid veterans, such as Hedo Turkoglu and JoseCalderon, and some intriguing but unproven players like Andrea Bargnani andDeMar DeRozan. It's a nice core if they can manage to keep Bosh, but it's notstrong enough to make the Raptors a contender.
Bryan Colangelo is an astute GM who showed a magic touch in Phoenix, but he's been less successful putting together a consistent winner in Toronto --despite a flurry of moves, the team regressed last season. Colangelo's wheeling and dealing this summer made the team better, but also hindered the capflexibility they might have had going forward. If Bosh stays, this is essentially the team they're stuck with. And if Bosh leaves, it's doubtful theycan replace him with someone as good.
Toronto has proven to be a desirable market for international players (see Turkoglu et al.), but a number of elite American athletes have wanted out overthe years (see Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter and perhaps Bosh). The cold, the cultural differences and the tax issues have allproved to be detriments to what is otherwise a lovely city.
And given the Raptors' expected performance as a bubble playoff team, their draft positioning should be just so-so as well. It's possible to findplayers in the middle of the first round, but rarely do you find stars.
[h3]17. Dallas Mavericks | Future Power Rating: 481[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]154 (24th)[/td] [td]136 (10th)[/td] [td]107 (10th)[/td] [td]68 (8th)[/td] [td]16 (29th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Mavericks were once the dregs of the NBA, but since owner Mark Cuban took the helm, they have been in contention year after year.
On paper, that era appears to be ending. Their still-impressive roster is aging quickly: Jason Kidd (36), ErickDampier (34), Jason Terry (32), Dirk Nowitzki (31), ShawnMarion (31) and Josh Howard (29) can't keep going forever. The trade ofDevin Harris and two first-round draft picks for Kidd was a move to win now, notlater.
Barring some miraculous maneuvers, the Mavs might be essentially starting from scratch in a couple of years, even if their current core is still able tocontribute. While 21-year-old point guard Rodrigue Beaubois has created some hype and24-year-old Kris Humphries has looked like a solid contributor, the Mavs'pipeline is otherwise utterly dry. And the free-spending Mavs are capped out until 2011, or more likely, 2012.
The good news is that the Mavs have a dynamic, popular owner and his management team has proved to be creative in handling the roster and the Mavs'perpetual lack of salary cap space. And the franchise has some assets (including Dampier's non-guaranteed contract) that we expect it to useaggressively.
Furthermore, Dallas is often on the short list of favored destinations for players, thanks to Cuban and the team's success. So while it's hard tosee the Mavs maintaining their incredible streak of nine consecutive seasons with 50 or more wins, it's hard to count them out, too.
[h3]18. Atlanta Hawks | Future Power Rating: 480[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]224 (12th)[/td] [td]72 (23rd)[/td] [td]96 (13th)[/td] [td]48 (17th)[/td] [td]40 (21th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
When it comes to the Hawks' future, the big question is where they go from here. Atlanta certainly has a decent stable of players, but one wonderswhether Joe Johnson is in this for the long haul after turning down an extension thisoffseason. The rest of the nucleus consists of three 23-year-olds -- Al Horford,Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams -- each of whom should be productive starters for years to come, but it'squite possible there won't be an All-Star appearance in the offing for any of them.
The other categories presented similar conundrums. Atlanta's ongoing ownership debacle seems closer to resolution after renegade partner Steve Belkinlost an important court ruling, but one still wonders whether they're committed enough to pay the luxury tax. GM Rick Sund has scored well in his firstyear-plus in Hotlanta but got mixed reviews, at best, for his previous work in Seattle and Detroit, while coach Mike Woodson still has detractors even afterhalf a decade at the helm. Those factors limited Atlanta to a 23rd-place ranking in management.
Atlanta's market is theoretically a huge lure for players, many of whom look forward to visiting when wearing other uniforms, but Johnson's warinessto extend is indicative of the general reticence players have shown to work here day-to-day. The draft is another slight negative, as Atlanta's currentperch as the presumptive fourth-best team in the East means they're likely to select in the late teens or early 20s the next couple of years.
[h3]19. Philadelphia 76ers | Future Power Rating: 477[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]234 (11th)[/td] [td]93 (19th)[/td] [td]60 (28th)[/td] [td]37 (22nd)[/td] [td]53 (13th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Philly projects to be a pretty pedestrian team over the next few years.
The Sixers ranked 11th in the players category, based on their nice core of talent: Elton Brand (30), AndreIguodala (25), Thaddeus Young (21), Lou Williams (23), JrueHoliday (19) and Marreese Speights (22).
But that group of players projects to be a fair-to-middling contender for a playoff spot in future seasons, and therein lies the problem. GM Ed Stefanskispent all of his money last summer signing Brand and extending Iguodala, so the Sixers don't have the financial flexibility to make any significantadditions. What's more, if the cap and tax threshold move lower, as expected, the team could be forced to cut payroll. All of this explains why Phillyranked 28th out of 30 teams in the money category.
In the other categories, the 76ers are ordinary at best. The Philly market isn't a major magnet for free agents, and we project the Sixers to bedrafting in the middle of the first round for the next few years. And while Stefanski and ownership have been solid, if undistinguished, we have questionsabout how Eddie Jordan's Princeton offense fits a run-and-gun roster.
If its young players develop into stars, or can be traded for a star or two, Philly's future will look brighter. But right now we expect the franchiseto remain mired in mediocrity.
[h3]20. Indiana Pacers | Future Power Rating: 469[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]158 (22nd)[/td] [td]101 (15th)[/td] [td]107 (11th)[/td] [td]40 (20th)[/td] [td]64 (9th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
It's been almost five years since the infamous brawl in Auburn Hills, and the Pacers are still recovering. Ron Artest, the main culprit among the Pacers, is now in Los Angeles trying to win achampionship. Indiana, meanwhile, is nowhere near the franchise it was then, when it appeared to be the league's best.
The Pacers succeeded in trading away Artest and other bad seeds, but the transactions have left Indiana with a depleted roster that has just one All-Star,Danny Granger. The rest of Granger's supporting cast would be pretty good roleplayers on a championship contender but struggle to carry the load while starting for the Pacers. While young players Roy Hibbert, BrandonRush and Tyler Hansbrough have some talent, not one looks like the kind of starGranger needs to play alongside.
The good news for Pacers fans is that team president Larry Bird and GM David Morway have a plan. They have been methodically cleansing the roster and savingup salary cap space for 2011. Once Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, JeffFoster and T.J. Ford come off the books, the Pacers can go strongly after acouple of top-tier free agents to play with Granger.
If the Pacers can lure stars to Indiana, their future should be a lot brighter than our rankings suggest. On the other hand, if we assume their acquisitionswill be more modest, the Pacers appear to be a marginal playoff contender in future seasons.
[h3]21. New York Knicks | Future Power Rating: 465[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]78 (28th)[/td] [td]101 (16th)[/td] [td]173 (1st)[/td] [td]73 (3rd)[/td] [td]40 (20th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The assumption for the past year or so has been that the Knicks' future is really bright. But a closer examination reveals that assumption may have beenlittle more than wishful thinking.
Yes, the Knicks have a lot of money to spend in 2010 and an owner, James Dolan, who is eager to write the checks. Yes, New York is one of the top playerdestinations in the NBA, for the city itself, for the MSG atmosphere and for the endorsement possibilities.
Yes, they have the most player-friendly coach in the league, Mike D'Antoni, whose fun, up-tempo style of play is something many players crave -- andD'Antoni also has strong personal relationships with potential free agents LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant and Chris Bosh, thanks to his stint as anassistant coach on Team USA. And yes, GM Donnie Walsh is a legend who, once upon a time, helped turn the Pacers into a championship contender.
But here's the problem: The Knicks' current roster is a mess, and it won't be easy to fill in all the potholes, even with an expected $25million in cap room. Our assumption here is that New York won't land LeBron James (if that changes, they'll shoot up these ratings) and will probablyhave a summer haul more akin to what the Pistons did last summer.
Two solid free agents would be a start. But what about the supporting cast? Danilo Gallinari looks promising. Wilson Chandler is a contributor. Jordan Hillmight help down the road. David Lee and Nate Robinson could also be part of the core, but both are unrestricted free agents next summer and their future withthe team is seriously in doubt. Factor in this, as well: Utah owns the Knicks' 2010 first-round draft pick, likely a high lottery pick. (Ouch!)
So all in all, it's unlikely we'll see the Knicks' fortunes change as dramatically as some expect from 2010 to 2013. Playoff team? Plausible.Contender? Not so much.
[h3]22. Minnesota Timberwolves | Future Power Rating: 426[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]170 (21st)[/td] [td]47 (26th)[/td] [td]123 (8th)[/td] [td]19 (28th)[/td] [td]68 (7th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Timberwolves' roster and its potential might have been the hardest to rank of any team's, because so much of its future is in flux at this verymoment. With Ricky Rubio in Spain for an indeterminate time, Al Jefferson still recovering from an ACL injury and rookie Jonny Flynn having only a few games ofNBA ball under his belt, it's hard to know what to make of their future just yet.
Management was another iffy area. New GM David Kahn has been on the job for only a few months, and while he seems far more enlightened regarding the salarycap than Kevin McHale, his predecessor, was, we've yet to see whether any of his moves have worked out or not. The big negative dragging the Timberwolvesdown in this category was owner Glen Taylor, whose reputation took a beating as a result of McHale's inexplicably lengthy tenure.
But the Wolves can count on having a good salary-cap situation going forward. Minnesota will be well under the cap next summer and has all but completelyexpunged the onerous contracts McHale saddled the team with during his ruinous reign. Additionally, Minnesota should get help from the draft. Though the Wolvesowe the Clippers a future pick that could prove to be a high lottery pick, they own a pick from Charlotte with roughly equal terms.
The Minnesota market will hold them back in free agency, however. The long, cold winters are a major drawback for players, as is the franchise's currentrebuilding program. To date, the team hasn't done much to offset the negative perception.
[h3]23. New Orleans Hornets | Future Power Rating: 422[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]218 (13th)[/td] [td]79 (20th)[/td] [td]50 (30th)[/td] [td]34 (25th)[/td] [td]42 (18th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
For a team with a young superstar in Chris Paul, the Hornets rated awfully poorly in our assessment.
The reason comes down to money: New Orleans' untenable cap situation and lack of financial resources placed it dead last among the league's 30 teamsin that category. The Hornets are over the luxury tax at the moment and could be as much as $10-12 million over next year's threshold, which maynecessitate salary dumping in the near future, because the market is barely viable even if the team stays under the tax. That's the case even if the teamis moderately successful. If the Hornets lose and attendance craters, we could see a fire sale.
With no cap space, it's also very hard for the team to add players around Paul, and the Hornets haven't shown a great knack for using their limitedresources wisely. Free-agent splurges on Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson and James Posey have turned into disasters, while the team shooed away young talentslike J.R. Smith and Brandon Bass. The ownership of George Shinn is another question mark, though he's been less of a liability on the bayou than he was inCharlotte.
Even with Paul aboard, New Orleans' roster and its potential ranked no better than in the middle of the pack overall -- he's the team's onlygood young player. And because of his presence, they'll probably be picking in the mid-to-late first round for the next year or two, limiting their abilityto improve through the draft.
Thus, looking ahead, one has to wonder if CP3's stay in New Orleans will mirror Kevin Garnett's frustrating final years in Minnesota.
[h3]24. Washington Wizards | Future Power Rating: 419[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]178 (19th)[/td] [td]77 (21st)[/td] [td]77 (25th)[/td] [td]46 (19th)[/td] [td]41 (19th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Surprised to see the Wizards 25th on this list? At first we were too, since it's not any one thing that put them there. But Washington was a littlebelow average across the board and has a terrible cap situation, combining to make its future look quite a bit less promising than its present.
Let's start with the players -- Washington's core trio of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler is getting on in years and has had troublestaying healthy. While the Wizards have promising young players (Andray Blatche, Nick Young and JaVale McGee), none has gone beyond showing flashes. And asever in Washington, there's a glaring lack of defensive talent.
In terms of management, Ernie Grunfeld's salary decisions have caused some head-scratching, most notably the ones to re-up Jamison and Arenas two yearsago to reunite a .500 nucleus at great cost. That put Washington below the league average despite a proven coach in Flip Saunders.
In terms of money, the Wizards are in especially bad shape. Washington is heavily into the luxury tax this year and will have to let several players walk ifit hopes to avoid the same fate next year; ownership may demand the latter scenario if the Wizards can't challenge the East's elite this season, as AbePollin's pockets go only so deep. There's nothing to offset those weaknesses. D.C.'s market is solid but unspectacular -- while it's a big citywith plenty of attractions, this is a ******** town and the District has high taxes, plus it's not exactly balmy in winter, and the franchise itself haslittle cachet.
The draft may not provide much help in the immediate future, either, as the Wizards' 2010 pick will likely be in the teens and they have no future picksfrom other teams.
[h3]25. Memphis Grizzlies | Future Power Rating: 377[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]180 (18th)[/td] [td]10 (29th)[/td] [td]89 (22nd)[/td] [td]14 (30th)[/td] [td]84 (2nd)[/td] [/tr][/table]
The Grizzlies' future ranks near the bottom despite the promise of a very solid talent base going forward. With the likes of Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, O.J.Mayo, Marc Gasol and Hasheem Thabeet, few teams have more young players with such potential. While none are quite stars, at least yet, they give the Grizzliesa decent core going forward and ranked them in the middle of the NBA pack in the players category.
Additionally, Memphis should get another big dollop of talent in next year's draft, thanks to its own annual high lottery pick and choices owed it byDenver and the Lakers -- as a result, only New Jersey ranked higher in the draft category.
Unfortunately, three big negatives more than offset those strengths.
First is the money category. Although Memphis could have substantial cap space in 2011, it's an open question whether owner Michael Heisley will bewilling to use it after giving away Pau Gasol in a fire sale two years ago, especially if the Griz keep drawing paltry crowds to FedEx Forum.
Additionally, there's the larger question of whether they could use the space successfully. With Heisley essentially usurping GM Chris Wallace'spower over most important basketball decisions, Memphis has embarked upon a series of dim-witted moves (moving Pau Gasol, acquiring Zach Randolph and AllenIverson) to keep the team cemented in the lottery. Only Golden State's management rated lower in our survey.
Finally, there's the market. Given the team's reputation and the city's limited diversions, Memphis ranked dead last in desirability as adestination, something that may limit the team's ability to improve via free agency in 2011.
[h3]26. Golden State Warriors | Future Power Rating: 372[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]188 (16th)[/td] [td]9 (30th)[/td] [td]76 (26th)[/td] [td]34 (24th)[/td] [td]66 (8th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
There was a moment, albeit a brief one, when the Warriors weren't the laughingstock of the league. It was only two years ago, and they had just upsetthe top-seeded Dallas Mavericks. Bay Area fans went wild, and the Warriors' future wasbright. Their motto: We Believe!
And then it all fell apart again as quickly as it came together.
Owner Chris Cohan decided to ignore and eventually fire general manager ChrisMullin, who had engineered the dynamic roster that had put the Warriors in the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons, ending the NBA's worst run offutility. Cohan gave Mullin's authority to his own crony, Robert Rowell, head coach Don Nelson and Nelson's buddy Larry Riley, and the result has beena run of disastrous decisions that shows no signs of abating.
A series of questionable trades, absurd contract extensions and pointless free-agent signings has led to a mismatched roster than seems to be disaffected,confused and looking for the exit door, thanks in large part to Nelson's bizarre coaching style, which offsets his very enjoyable go-go style of play.Furthermore, the franchise's disarray and perpetual lottery status has discouraged star players from coming to what otherwise would be considered one ofthe NBA's prime destinations, and in any case, the team has already used up its salary-cap space and has little flexibility.
Add it all up and you have the worst management team in the NBA.
The upside: a bevy of young players, drafted mostly by Mullin. Monta Ellis (24),Stephen Curry (21), Anthony Randolph (20), Andris Biedrins (23) and Brandan Wright (22) all have enormous potential. But questions about their defensive ability,how well they'll fit and how Nelson will develop them have us tempering our enthusiasm, despite their evident talent. And the Warriors still have anundersized backcourt, no low-post scoring presence, and an unhappy Stephen Jackson,whose contract extension runs throughout the entire period of our rankings (to 2013, that is).
If Cohan sells the team and the Warriors hire a competent management team and a new coach, their fortunes could change quickly, given their talent. But fornow, Golden State is the most dysfunctional team in a league that has several strong candidates for that title.
[h3]27. Phoenix Suns | Future Power Rating: 365[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]112 (26th)[/td] [td]56 (25th)[/td] [td]94 (16th)[/td] [td]69 (5th)[/td] [td]35 (24th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
Of all the teams we ranked, the Suns were the ones that caused the biggest double-take between us. The Suns have the 27th-brightest future? Really?
Isn't this the team that led the mighty Western Conference in 2008? Aren't they once again leading the West at the moment? Don't they still havesuperstars Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire? Are things really so bad?
Yeah, things are bad.
Let's go right to the roster that's been one of the NBA's best for the past five seasons. For starters, Nash and Stoudemire have big asterisksnext to their names. Nash turns 36 in February and Stoudemire, coming off serious eye surgery, can be an unrestricted free agent next summer. The rest of theircore includes 37-year-old Grant Hill, Jason Richardson (29 in January) and sixth man Leandro Barbosa (already 27 later this month). Youngsters Earl Clark and RobinLopez have potential but so far are role players at best.
While owner Robert Sarver has shown a willingness to spend at times during his confusing tenure, the signs in that department are discouraging as well.Lately the Suns have looked to cut costs, and in doing so have shipped out both ShawnMarion and Shaquille O'Neal while shopping Stoudemire. (That's not tomention their maddening policy of selling draft picks rather than restocking with young, inexpensive talent.) All in all, the Sarver administration hassquandered an opportunity to make the Suns the league's marquee franchise and instead made them a team trying to avoid a second straight appearance in thelottery.
Steve Kerr's tenure has been noteworthy mostly for his shocking andsemi-disastrous acquisition of Shaq, though he has since reversed course and reconstructed a running team. And the departure of Mike D'Antoni further hurtsthe Suns' score in the management category, even if Alvin Gentry has succeeded in restoring the Suns' speed game.
The draft won't help either, at least in the short term: Oklahoma City owns the Suns' 2010 first-round pick.
The bright side for the Suns is that players have shown a lot of interest in playing in Phoenix in the past, and the Suns will have some salary-cap space in2011 if they don't re-sign Stoudemire. But most signs at the moment point to Sarver putting the savings into his pocket, not his roster.
[h3]28. Sacramento Kings | Future Power Rating: 343[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]86 (27th)[/td] [td]74 (22nd)[/td] [td]75 (27th)[/td] [td]30 (26th)[/td] [td]78 (3rd)[/td] [/tr][/table]
It's always darkest before the dawn, as they say, and in Sacramento they're still waiting for the sun to come up. The Kings' roster has a fewintriguing young players -- Tyreke Evans, Jason Thompson, OmriCasspi and Spencer Hawes -- and an established star in Kevin Martin, but several holes remain.
The front office would have rated at or near the top several years ago, but the Kings seem to have lost their touch since then. Horrific contracts for thelikes of Beno Udrih and Francisco Garcia unnecessarily prolonged a salary-cap hangover from the glory days, one thatwould have been far worse if Bonzi Wells hadn't foolishly turned down a ridiculousfive-year, $36 million offer three years ago.
As it is, Sacramento won't be under the cap until 2011, and even then it won't have oodles of cap room to use. Udrih, Garcia and Andres Nocioni -- three peripheral players -- will eat up a third of its cap as late as 2012.Additionally, the Kings are among the league's poorest teams at the moment, with dated Arco Arena producing paltry revenues, and as a result are lookingmuch harder at slashing payroll than adding to it.
The Sacramento market isn't what it once was either. While the Maloof brothers have treated their players well and the team's up-tempo style isalluring, Sacramento's weaknesses go deeper than a lack of most favored dining establishments. It's a small market with high state taxes, the Kings arerebuilding, and the uncertainty about the team's future in Sacramento means players might find themselves "traded" to a different city even ifthey don't change rosters.
About the only thing Sacramento can look forward to are high draft picks. With the immediate future looking rather gloomy, the Kings have the third-rosiestdraft outlook.
[h3]29. Milwaukee Bucks | Future Power Rating: 319[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]74 (29th)[/td] [td]64 (24th)[/td] [td]90 (21st)[/td] [td]15 (29th)[/td] [td]77 (4th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
There must be days when Milwaukee general manager John Hammond wonders what he got himself into. When he left the highly successful Pistons to take theBucks job, the goal was to spend money, be aggressive and push the team back into the playoffs. Then the recession hit and the Bucks, over the past year, havebeen in slash-and-burn mode, on orders from owner Herb Kohl. They traded away RichardJefferson to the Spurs for cap relief and let free agents Charlie Villanueva andRamon Sessions walk last summer.
The remaining roster is a mess. Michael Redd is a fading star. Andrew Bogut is solid but overpaid. Recent lottery pick Joe Alexander has been a bust. Rookie Brandon Jennings looks like the bright hope of the franchise, but he may be doing it alonefor the next few years. The rest of the roster is littered with role players.
The Bucks are projected to have some cap room in 2011, but given the financial status of their owner combined with the weak appeal of Milwaukee as adestination among NBA free agents, no one's expecting them to land a big catch.
Jennings aside, the best bit of good news for Bucks fans comes in the draft category, because Milwaukee should be selecting high in the lottery for at leasta couple of years. If the Bucks draft smartly (see Jennings), they should be able to put some great talent around their young point guard. If they don't(see Alexander), it may be a decade before we see Milwaukee as a contender again.
[h3]30. Charlotte Bobcats | Future Power Rating: 214[/h3]
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYERS[/th] [th=""]MANAGEMENT[/th] [th=""]MONEY[/th] [th=""]MARKET[/th] [th=""]DRAFT[/th] [/tr][tr][td]46 (30th)[/td] [td]32 (28th)[/td] [td]60 (29th)[/td] [td]22 (27th)[/td] [td]54 (12th)[/td] [/tr][/table]
If you think the Bobcats' present is bad, just wait 'til you see their future.
Charlotte ranked as the league's most hopeless franchise in our survey, finishing in the bottom four in every category except one. Even that category,the draft, came with an asterisk: Charlotte ranked well because we expect it to struggle and get high picks, but a future choice it foolishly traded away forthe rights to Alexis Ajinca last year could end up costing the Cats a high lotterypick. That's why they ranked only 12th rather than in the top four.
There's not much to like here. Charlotte has no cap space until 2011 at the earliest, limited financial resources and a rep for being tight-fisted,ranking the Bobcats 29th in the money category. The Queen City is a small market with no buzz, placing the Bobcats 27th in the market category. And the rosteris nothing to write home about either, as .J. Augustin is the only young player withanything remotely resembling star potential. Most of the other key players are in their late 20s and will be getting worse, not better, in coming years.
Finally, there's the management -- only Golden State's and Memphis' rated worse. Owner Robert Johnson has seemed to be in over his head from Day1, while Managing Member of Basketball Operations Michael Jordan allegedly runs theteam while mulling which iron to play from a fairway bunker in Illinois. That's left impulsive coach Larry Brown shaping a lot of the day-to-day personneldecisions, with rash moves like the Ajinca trade and the Emeka Okafor-Tyson Chandler deal resulting.
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idiotic article.
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damn even in the future the t-wolves are only ranked 22
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Miami at 5?
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thanks swizzc. expected a couple teams to be a bit higher (MIN, MEM).
darthska
Staff member
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The hell?
Someone spent a lot of time coming up with that worthless data? And I use the word 'data' very loosely.
'Market' is a category? Factoring in the attraction of the city, the reputation of the team, business opportunities, etc.?
Someone spent a lot of time coming up with that worthless data? And I use the word 'data' very loosely.
'Market' is a category? Factoring in the attraction of the city, the reputation of the team, business opportunities, etc.?
TheGodFresco
formerly gsdoubleu
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this is real stupid
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This is really pointless, most of those factors don't even come to use when acquiring players, especially Market and Management.
It varies from player to player
It varies from player to player
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