Nuggets-Lakers is the Western Conference finals matchup we deserve: 4 observations
Starting with Tuesday night’s Game 1 at Ball Arena, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers meet for the Western Conference title and it’s the matchup we deserve because they have been the two best teams out West in the postseason by a significant margin.
Neither team encountered any danger in losing their first two series. Both teams have had stretches this postseason where they have played championship-level basketball. They have displayed the kind of versatility and resiliency and star power to win at the highest level. The Nuggets and Lakers are two well-rounded teams who are playing their best basketball at the right time. This could make for a hotly contested series.
Let’s dive into the matchup, look at what to expect and what stands out on paper, as Games 1 and 2 commence in Denver over the course of the week.
The obvious matchup: Jokić vs. AD
Nikola Jokić hasn’t been good in these playoffs. He hasn’t been great. He hasn’t been historic. He’s been generational through two rounds. When taking stock of the singular best player in the postseason so far, the list starts with Jokić and everyone else jostling for second place. But with this series, Jokić is facing his most difficult positional opponent.
As good as Jokić has been on the offensive end of the court, Anthony Davis has been almost as good defensively. He’s the reason the Lakers have been the best defensive team in the playoffs. He’s one of the biggest reasons the Lakers are where they currently are, with respect to how good LeBron James was in closing out the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 of a Western Conference semifinal.
If Jokić is to be contained, Davis is the one capable of doing so, with his quick feet, long arms, terrific anticipation and ability to rebound. If Jokić is to be tested defensively, Davis is the one that can do so as well. For Denver to win this series, Jokić probably needs to be the series’ best player. He’s going to have to outplay Davis over the course of seven games.
What we know going into Tuesday is that the 2020 meeting between the Lakers and Nuggets and between Jokić and Davis shouldn’t have much bearing at all on what will happen over these next two weeks. Jokic is a significantly better basketball player than he was in 2020. More importantly, in the 2020 series, the Lakers had more bodies to throw at him. They were able to bring in Dwight Howard, for example, and have him lean on Jokić, tire him, use six fouls on him.
Los Angeles has no such luxury this time around. If Davis gets into foul trouble, the Lakers are in trouble. That dynamic may or may not come into play. But what we have on a macro level is this: Nikola Jokić has been the best offensive player in the postseason by a country mile. The gap is almost as big for how good a defensive player Davis has been in the playoffs. The two play the same position. They will often guard each other. And how that matchup progresses will have a huge implication on how the series progresses as a whole.
Aaron Gordon’s key responsibility
The Nuggets’ Aaron Gordon will need to be huge in this series for the Nuggets to make their first NBA Finals. He’s the one Nugget with the speed, the size, and the strength to adequately deal with LeBron James. Gordon’s role is going to be gargantuan.
Take a stroll back to the Lakers-Warriors series. In the first five games, Andrew Wiggins, who guards James about as well individually as anyone has ever guarded LeBron James, truly made life difficult for LBJ. James made a significant impact, because he’s one of the best to ever do it, and you’re just simply never going to shut his water all the way off. But, Wiggins made LeBron work extremely hard in the first five games for everything he got on offense. Wiggins made James inefficient, which is about as much as you can hope for.
Wiggins suffered a rib injury ahead of Game 6, which didn’t allow him to guard James nearly as much as the Warriors needed. James went for 30 in Game 6, on 10-of-14 shooting, because there was nobody else on Golden State’s roster who could deal with him physically.
That’s about where the Nuggets are. Gordon is 6-foot-8, 250 pounds, with long arms, and is super athletic, is extremely strong and agile, and is a great defender. He is the guy who can make life difficult for James. And if it isn’t Gordon, despite the Nuggets having a bevy of terrific perimeter defenders, none have the trifecta of strength, size and athleticism that Gordon has. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are great defenders, but are too small to deal with James. Christian Braun is a terrific defender, but he’s a rookie. Jeff Green has the length and athleticism, but not the lateral movement. The same applies to Michael Porter Jr.
For the Nuggets to win this series, Jokić has to be the best player in the series, but even if that occurs, Davis and James can’t take over the series in their own right. One of them has to be limited in some sort of way, and Gordon is Denver’s best shot at limiting James. Gordon has been an elite individual defender in this postseason. The Nuggets defeated the Phoenix Suns in large part because Gordon did the very thing to Kevin Durant that he must to do James. He limited him, and didn’t allow him to take over the series. And in the first round win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, Gordon not only limited Wolves star Karl-Anthony Towns, he took KAT out of the series.
So, having an important defensive assignment isn’t something Gordon hasn’t done this postseason. He just has to do it again.
This rematch bursts the ‘bubble’
A lot has been made about the two teams getting together in the Western Conference Finals, as they met three years ago in the Disney World bubble, with the Lakers winning in six games. In reality, there are so many differences that it’s just not fair to take anything from what happened in 2020.
Jokić, Jamal Murray and Porter Jr. are the only rotation players who remain with the Nuggets. James and Davis are the only rotation players who remain with the Lakers. Caldwell-Pope was playing with the Lakers. As mentioned before, Jokić is such a different player that he may as well not be counted from 2020. And both teams play differently. These Nuggets, they defend around Jokić and Murray. Much has been made of Jokić being exposed defensively in pick and roll, but the Nuggets are so good on the perimeter defensively that Minnesota and Phoenix weren’t able to exploit that. More importantly, Denver’s defensive guys, Caldwell-Pope and Brown, can shoot. And they can play in transition. And they can make plays off the dribble. And they can move without the basketball. And they are versatile offensively. This Nuggets team is as real as they come, and one of the reasons is how well they are built around Jokić and Murray. This Denver team is a monster.
This Lakers team has proven to be a monster as well, and is arguably better in some spots than the 2020 team that won James his fourth NBA title. Offensively, this is one of the most versatile teams that James has been a part of. The Suns couldn’t get into pick and roll against the Nuggets because they didn’t have the playmakers to do so outside of Durant and Devin Booker. This Laker team has multiple pick-and-roll options outside of James that makes them dangerous offensively. They will be the first team the Nuggets face this postseason that can run a pick-and-roll on one end of the floor, and run a second one on the other side of the floor on the same possession. Despite Los Angeles being an average-at-best shooting team, this makes it difficult to load up against, like the Nuggets were able to load up defensively against the Suns and Timberwolves.
More importantly, the Lakers will put significantly more pressure on the rim than any team Denver has faced this postseason, and they have the ability to do so from multiple angles.
It makes for what could be a fascinating matchup over the next two weeks.
The biggest X-factor: Jamal Murray
Murray is going to be a main guy in this series, as he always is, with his ability to create and his shotmaking. This series could prove to be an advantageous matchup for Denver’s dynamic point guard.
The archetype of players who have bothered Murray this postseason has been length and athleticism such as the Suns’ Josh Okogie. The Lakers don’t really have the kind of player who can truly bother Murray over the course of a series. You could say Jarred Vanderbilt, but if you play Vanderbilt major minutes defensively, you also have to play him offensively. The Nuggets will simply ignore him, which will muck up the Lakers’ offense. That leaves Austin Reaves, Dennis Schröder, who is a terrific defender but much smaller than Murray, and D’Angelo Russell, who isn’t a terrific defender.
In essence, there is a blueprint available for Murray to have a big series against the Lakers, which could tilt the series Denver’s way. Consistency will be a key. But Murray is good enough that he can be one of the three best players in this series. And if that happens, the Nuggets’ would have a big advantage.
, Also this "deep" team of Denver is playing Jeff Green & Braun as par of their main 8, we sure they have an advantage in depth??
