Ranking the rookies before the season relies on a simple formula: Talent plus opportunity equals overall production. Much guesswork remains in terms ofpredicting opportunity, as teams are still filling out their depth charts, so we'll tweak this list as the offseason moves along. And we'll add moresecond-rounders once we get a better idea of which ones will actually make a roster.
Until then, here's my first 2009-10 rookie report:
[h2]The top 10[/h2]
1. BlakeGriffin, Clippers
His combination of talent, powerful athleticism and passion for the game is unique. And he can be a culture changer for a franchise in desperate need of one.
I once heard
Christian Laettner, then starring forback-to-back NCAA championship runs at Duke, explain that the key to his success was that he "played poor." No description better definesGriffin's style -- he plays with an attitude that seems bent on proving he belongs, despite being rich in talent.
2. Tyreke Evans, Kings
Evans is playing for a team in need of talent upgrades, especially at the point guard spot. So it is hard to imagine anything less than 30 minutes a night forthis scoring machine.
Similar to
Derrick Rose's situation last season,Evans can expect the offense to revolve a good deal around what he does best. The Kings will post him up, spread the floor for him and feature him as the clockwinds down on numerous occasions. With his craftiness, length and skill as a finisher, he could lead the rookie class in points per game.
3. Jonny Flynn, Timberwolves
As of today, he's the starting point guard for a team that has great talent inside (and two big bodies to use as ball screens). Flynn has great charisma onthe floor, and he can use his jets in both the half-court and full-court game.
Considering the Wolves don't have a backup point guard who demands playing time, Flynn may lead this rookie class in minutes played. And with hisconfidence and talent, he'll put up very productive numbers. Unless … Ricky Rubio decides to suit up for the Wolves, too.
4. DeMar DeRozan, Raptors
No player impressed me more during the summer league than he did. He played like a bigger version of
Courtney Lee -- he was smart with the ball, didn't forcethings and played off his teammates very well. Those attributes are perfect for his role on the Raps, who look very similar to last season's Magic.
DeRozan can simply make plays within the system and let his veteran teammates carry the tougher work until he evolves into the quality starter he seemsdestined to become.
5. Brandon Jennings, Bucks
If
Ramon Sessions stays in Milwaukee, Jennings will fallout of the top 10. But because Sessions is expected to leave, Jennings projects to play major minutes. And he's too talented not to put up some impressivenumbers.
Jennings plays like a true point, looking to score only if it's the best option. And he showed in summer league that he can make players better,especially in transition. As I watched him play in Vegas, I kept thinking, "Who wouldn't like playing with this guy?" If Jennings accepts thetough love he'll get from Bucks coach
Scott Skiles,he will be a candidate for rookie of the year.
6. JamesHarden, Thunder
I think Harden is the second-best American player in this class, but he's competing for playing time with
Thabo Sefolosha, an up-and-coming player who does many of thesame things Harden does. The Thunder need to develop both guys, which means Harden probably won't get the minutes that the guys ahead of him on this listwill.
Still, this gifted passer plays the game beautifully, with a veteran's pace and intelligence, so he'll be productive in the time he gets. ShouldSefolosha falter, Harden immediately would become a ROY contender.
7. Stephen Curry, Warriors
On one hand, Curry might have been the second-most disappointing rookie in Vegas (though he was second by a long shot to
Hasheem Thabeet), shooting poorly and with seemingly no thoughtsbehind his actions. But on the other hand, he found a way to contribute in other areas.
Curry will figure out a smarter way to play offense (his coach will help), so it seems likely that he'll end up performing solidly this season.
8. Earl Clark, Suns
As I tweeted from Vegas, it'll be very hard to keep Clark off the floor this season -- primarily, and perhaps a bit ironically, because of his talents ondefense. Clark can defend bigs and wings, using his length, quickness and excellent feel for the game. With Phoenix's front line in flux, it looks asthough he'll earn ample opportunities to show he deserved to be a high lottery pick.
He's also an excellent passer and a perfect fit in the Suns' offense.
9. Tyler Hansbrough, Pacers
He showed in Orlando summer league that what we saw from him at UNC for four years is what we'll get going forward; he's a beast of a player. He'sbetter off coming off the bench, where his energy will be even more valuable.
One item of concern: Hansbrough relies on getting to the free throw line a great deal, and that might not happen often as a rookie. He's better offfocusing on finishing rather than trying to get the whistle. He also will be a factor in the Pacers' transition game, as he rarely fails to race thefloor.
10. JordanHill, Knicks
Like Clark, the current lack of an identity on the Knicks' front line suggests that Hill will get minutes. And he's the type of player who will performbetter when surrounded by veterans who understand spacing and timing. Hill will compete at a high level, and his size and agility combined with his effort willtranslate well to the Knicks' system.
[h2]The next 10[/h2]
This is where the lack of starter talent jumps out, especially compared with last year's rooks. In truth, that argument can be made after the firstseven or eight guys listed above. The next 10 are all solid NBA prospects, but they have a lot of work to do to ensure that their teams don't draft thesame position next year.
11. WayneEllington, Timberwolves
He's already a good NBA shooter, and he has the rangy athleticism that will help him defend and rebound. Playing with a dynamo point guard (Flynn) andtalented bigs (
Al Jefferson,
Kevin Love) will help him get easier shots, too. The lack ofshooting guards on Minnesota's roster should guarantee Ellington minutes from the get-go.
12. DeMarre Carroll, Grizzlies
As I've written over and over again, energy is a talent. Carroll excels in this area. Memphis has a need for his ability, especially when its starters havepoor starts. Carroll will change the flavor of a game often enough to continue to demand minutes. He's a solid finisher, too.
13. Darren Collison, Hornets
He'd be a top-10 guy for me if he were playing on almost any other team. His ability to handle the point guard duties for the Hornets will be evident fromday one. Of course, playing behind the world's best point guard will make it hard for Collison to play more than 10 minutes a game. Maybe New Orleans coach
Byron Scott will develop him earlier and get CP3 morerest during the season.
14. Jeff Teague, Hawks
We didn't see him during summer league, but his talents are undeniable. Although
Mike Bibby has a new deal, Teague is Atlanta's point guard ofthe future. I think we might see them play together some as well.
15. Ty Lawson, Nuggets
When Lawson is the best offensive player on a team, the results may not be pretty. But on a loaded Nuggets squad, he's perfect -- as long as he focusesmore on defense. Like Jennings, he's a joy to play alongside.
16. GeraldHenderson, Bobcats
This athletic guard has a chance to fly up our board if he can get playing time from a coach who doesn't just give minutes away to rooks. Of course,Henderson is used to strong coaching, so his learning curve could be swift.
17. Terrence Williams, Nets
He's the hardest guy to project in a sense. He's not much of a scorer. However, he loves to compete, and he's a terrific passer. His athleticismhelps him a great deal, too. Will he find a position fast enough to crack the rotation early? I think so, and he could do it as a small forward.
18. Austin Daye, Pistons
He deserves to be higher based on his summer debut, but playing behind Mr. Do-it-all (otherwise known as
Tayshaun Prince) suggests that he'll spend most of theseason learning and getting stronger
19. Omri Casspi, Kings
"The Zohan" struggled on offense in Vegas, partly because of forced inactivity until his FIBA contract got resolved. He looked more comfortable atthe end of summer league, bringing energy and playmaking skills to a team in desperate need of both.
Donte Greene's poor performance this summer left the doorwide open for Casspi.
20. ToneyDouglas, Knicks
Douglas may have been the worst shooter on the worst team in Vegas. But his ability to run a team and defend his position ranked near the top. His shootingwoes likely will not continue on the Knicks, and his playmaking and ball-hawking skills will translate into decent minutes.
[h2]The best of the rest[/h2]
Some of these guys are second-round guys; others are first-rounders who looked OK in summer league but are stuck behind too many good players.
James Johnson,Bulls
He showed excellent talent as a passer and had some impressive moments during summer league. But with
Luol Deng,
John Salmons,
Tyrus Thomas and
Joakim Noah in front of him at the 3 and 4 spots, how much willhe play?
DeJuan Blair, Spurs
Blair did as expected -- he moved people around and got buckets and boards. He has lost 50 pounds since college but still plays "heavy" (below therim or too slow in transition) too often. However, he could be one of a few rookies playing meaningful minutes in the spring.
Marcus Thornton, Hornets
Thornton needs lots of shots to score, but unlike most volume shooters, he can really play the game. And he brings great tenacity, too. I think he and Collisoncan end up forming a strong bench nucleus for the Hornets.
DaJuan Summers, Pistons
Might have been a top-five rookie performer in Vegas. The huge changes on Detroit's front line suggest that Summers will spend a lot of time on the court …and in our top 20 eventually.
Jodie Meeks, Bucks
It's hard to ask for more than what Meeks did in Vegas, where he hit a lot of big shots and competed at a high level. He looks like a surefire NBA player,and his attitude seems perfect for the kind of coaching he'll get. He was all business during summer league play.
Chase Budinger, Rockets
The comparisons to
Adam Morrison (all offense, nodefense) are missing one huge factor: Budinger is a purer shooter than Ammo was coming out of college. Budinger shot incredibly well all week in Vegas and madethe best argument possible that he belongs on the Rockets' roster.
Dante Cunningham, Blazers
I'm not sure he'll make Portland's roster this year, but not because of how he played in Vegas. He was a standout there.
[h2]The project list[/h2]
Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves
He's not a project on the court, but getting him to Minnesota seems to be the biggest project facing the T-Wolves. He's going to makeeveryone on that team better, once he's in uniform. One hundred percent of the executives I spoke with felt he should have been a top four selection, andall cited his master set of passing skills. They also said his shooting is underrated and will get much better in time.
Jrue Holiday, 76ers
Holiday had the double misfortune of not playing the point for an entire season at UCLA (though after watching Collison's talent it's easy tounderstand why), then getting to do it for the hybrid Nets-Sixers team that never jelled at all. The bad news is that every part of his offensive game seemedbelow par, but the good news is that his talent was obvious. He's a solid prospect to be sure, and the best news is that he defended the ball better thanany guard we saw in either summer league.
Hasheem Thabeet, Grizzlies
This much is certain: The Grizzlies knew they were getting a project when they drafted him. And although his attitude seemed positive and his demeanor on thecourt was professional, his effort level never came close to what it will take for him to have success in the NBA. His lack of strength, balance or scoringskills is not the issue. Give him that same set of weaknesses, but replace his passion for the games with Blake Griffin's, and Memphis would have a centerwho would be the envy of the entire league.
David Thorpe is an NBA analyst for Scouts Inc. and the executive director of the Pro Training Center in Clearwater, Fla., where he oversees the playerdevelopment program for more than 40 NBA, European League and D-League players. Those players include http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2394Kevin Martin, http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3837Rob Kurz, Luol Deng, Courtney Lee and Tyrus Thomas. To e-mail him, click here.
