Originally Posted by
Osh Kosh Bosh
Anybody got this ESPN Insider article??
http://insider.espn.go.co...26page%3dTurkoglu-090704
Please and thx?
[h2]Turkoglu shakes up free-agent market[/h2] [h3]The Blazers and Raptors still have decisions to make after the Turkoglu reversal[/h3]
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By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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Chris Graythen/Getty ImagesTurkoglu's about-face will reshape the landscape in Portland, Toronto and other places.
Anyone who saw the footage of
Hedo Turkoglu meeting Blazers bigwigs at PortlandInternational Airport on Thursday had to get a little bit of a weird feeling. Especially any married guys. Turkoglu came alone, amid rumors that his wife verystrongly preferred to be in Toronto, and I remember thinking at that very moment that the Blazers recruiting pitch was doomed to failure. It was going to betough to sell her on the charms of Portland if she wasn't there.
Thus, despite two days of Chamber of Commerce weather here in the Rose City, replete with blue skies and Mt. Hood views, and tours of the Blazers'first-rate training facility in Tualatin, Turkoglu isn't coming to the Blazers. After an 11th-hour Boozerang that will forever immortalize him as"Hedon't" in the local vernacular, the Turkoglus are heading to Toronto instead -- a place they never visited on this free-agent tour, apparentlybecause they didn't need to be sold on it.
In doing so, they've upset the entire apple cart of free agency. Collateral casualties include
Shawn Marion, who seemed hours from a deal worth at least $36 million with the Raptors and nowis likely to be scrounging around for the midlevel exception; the
Cleveland Cavaliers, who wereworking on a sign-and-trade for
Anthony Parker that now probably has no chance ofhappening; and
Linas Kleiza, whose strongest suitors appeared to be the Raptors untilHedo's last-second change of heart.
Meanwhile, there are some huge winners too -- most notably
David Lee,
Paul Millsap,
RamonSessions and
Andre Miller. Those free agents are some of the best remaining on themarket, and they were about to be put in a really tight spot if Turkoglu went to Portland and the Raptors re-signed Marion. At that point, the market wouldhave been an uncomfortable place for the top players to be, because the teams with cap space don't appear eager to use it.
In particular, while the Turkoglu drama played out Friday night, my sources informed me that Oklahoma City -- the team with the biggest stack of chipsremaining -- is highly unlikely to splurge this summer. Given that the best available young players (Millsap, Lee, Sessions) are poor fits on the Thunder'sroster, OKC plans to continue with its patient approach rather than overpaying for parts that don't fit especially well.
The Thunder will be value players rather than big-game hunters, looking for opportunistic deals between now and the trade deadline. A year from now, theycould have as much as $20 million in cap space, two lottery picks (theirs and Phoenix's) in a strong draft, and one of the league's best young rosters.About the only way to screw it up would be to force a big contract into the picture this summer, and with the team already selling out every game, theydon't see any need to rush it.
If the Thunder are on the sidelines for big-name free agents, it's hard to see who besides Portland is left in the game. Sacramento has cap space but isin dire straits financially, while the Grizzlies made the questionable choice to forsake a power forward-laden free-agent market so they could overpay
Zach Randolph.
As for the Blazers, they can go in several directions from here, and can at least take comfort in the fact that they control the free-agent game until theymake their next move. Portland might want to go after Sessions, a good young point guard who fills their need for a second quality pick-and-roll player --albeit at a different position than Turkoglu.
They may also decide to punt on free agency and hope to play the trade market, but that's a risky strategy. If they don't get something done by thetrade deadline, the opportunity will basically be gone forever because next year extensions for
Brandon Roy and
LaMarcus Aldridge will kick in, and it's not clear that somebody will come available whofits what they need.
They might also try to make a long-shot run at
Lamar Odom, perhaps the best playerleft on the board and one who, like Turkoglu, could provide another offensive creator while swinging between the two forward spots. But the rainy weather and alocation 90 minutes inland don't exactly jibe with Odom's stated preference to live on the beach. The most likely outcome of an Odom pursuit would bedriving up the price for the rival Lakers.
Alternatively, the Blazers could try to target a Sixth Man shot creator like New York's
Nate Robinson, or make a run at Philadelphia's Andre Miller, the latter not a great fitin my opinion, but a possibility given their need at the point.
As for Toronto, Turkoglu doesn't remedy the team's glaring lack of athleticism, but it does give the team a sorely needed offensive initiator on thewings. The Raptors needed to make some aggressive moves to try to keep
Chris Boshfrom leaving next summer, and Turkoglu will combine with Bosh,
Jose Calderon and
Andrea Bargnani to give Toronto one of the league's best-shooting teams.
However, those four may not have any decent teammates, because it looks like Toronto will have to gut much of the roster to create the cap space forTurkoglu. Toronto is reportedly offering a five-year, $52 million deal for Turkoglu, which means they might have to renounce the rights to Shawn Marion,
Carlos Delfino, Anthony Parker and
Joey Graham (as well as
Quincy Douby,
JakeVoskuhl and
Pops Mensah-Bonsu) and round out the roster with minimum-salaryplayers. Turkoglu and 19-year-old rookie DeMar DeRozan would be the only wings on the roster.
Seen in that light this looks like a terrible move. Toronto could have re-signed Marion, Parker and Delfino and then used its midlevel exception to addKleiza and possibly another player, making the Raptors a much deeper and well-balanced player. Instead they've possibly left themselves extremely thinnearly everywhere, just for the privilege of overpaying a 30-year-old non-star for the next half-decade.
I say "possibly" because there are some ways out of this scenario. For starters, if the cap number came in higher than expected on July 8 and theRaptors worked Turkoglu's deal as a sign-and-trade with Orlando (generating a huge trade exception and, say, the rights to Greek big man Georgios Printezisfor the Magic), they might also be able to re-sign restricted free agent Carlos Delfino.
And if they could do it as a sign-and-trade involving Marion or Parker, it opens up more avenues for the Magic to retain some talent. It's not clearthat Orlando would have a use for Marion, or if the tax-paying Magic would be willing to take on any salary at all.
But it's possible they would have some use for a player like Parker in particular, who would fill Courtney Lee's role as a defensive ace andknock-down shooter. If not, involving a third team might be able to get them a player they covet more. Over the next several days, I'm sure both Torontoand Orlando will be looking hard at these possibilities -- and that Marion's agent, Dan Fegan, will be looking even harder.
That is one of the great unknowns heading toward July 8, and until we learn more about the final terms it's tough to totally evaluate how this moveworks out for the Raptors.
In the meantime, all that seems certain is that the Blazers have been jilted, the Thunder are sitting this one out, and the ground has shifted unexpectedlyfor countless free agents around the league as a result. As we head into Independence Day, that's the state of the NBA union . . . at least, until the nexttime somebody changes his mind.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
