Nike Restock Thread Vol Your Appeals Have Been Heard

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splashbros1 said:
 
I'm a newbie here (admittedly a long time lurker), but I'm also a CPA and work for one of the Big 4 accounting firms (Big 4 accounting firms audit the financials of virtually every publicly traded company).  Had to chime in now that we're talking about fiscal year ends and Nike's financial statements.  In all my life, I never thought my interest in Jordan's and my profession would intersect.  I'm literally sitting here laughing out loud.  Good stuff!
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Its gonna be the end of a fiscal year for Nike. I have this theory kinda like the Kevin Hart "bank account from savings to checking takes a few days" story. 

Nike will probably not do the restock on the last day of the fiscal year cause they need the money to clear before that fiscal year ends. It can possibly be sooner so they can have time for money to clear in their accounts or it can be after so they have a great starting year. 
 
My money is on a Sunday drop. We'll have the date, but no time will be given.
 
MoseDefKIcks said:
 
Its gonna be the end of a fiscal year for Nike. I have this theory kinda like the Kevin Hart "bank account from savings to checking takes a few days" story. 

Nike will probably not do the restock on the last day of the fiscal year cause they need the money to clear before that fiscal year ends. It can possibly be sooner so they can have time for money to clear in their accounts or it can be after so they have a great starting year. 
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you're talking about a matter of a whole month. nike isn't gonna wait a whole month after they just tried to drop it.
 
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splashbros1 said:
 
I'm a newbie here (admittedly a long time lurker), but I'm also a CPA and work for one of the Big 4 accounting firms (Big 4 accounting firms audit the financials of virtually every publicly traded company).  Had to chime in now that we're talking about fiscal year ends and Nike's financial statements.  In all my life, I never thought my interest in Jordan's and my profession would intersect.  I'm literally sitting here laughing out loud.  Good stuff!
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please enlighten us
 
benbenbenjamin said:
 
please enlighten us
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Not sure I can shed any light on the timing of the restock, but I can say this- if Nike is counting on the sales from this planned restock in order to meet/beat their 4th quarter revenue or EPS targets, then we all have nothing to worry about cause this would have to be a BIG *** restock.  Plenty of BRED and Royal 1's for everyone!

Some perspective:

Last quarter (Q3), Nike brand generated $6.5 BILLION in sales and $1.3B of that came from direct sales to consumers (i.e. Nike owned retail stores and NDC sales).  I'm not going to even pretend- I have no idea how many pairs of shoes Nike plans to release by model in this restock  (they guard this unit level information very closely), but if you do the high level math and assume the average pair of Jordan's sells for $200 (rounding up here), even to generate $20M in gross sales they would have to sell 100,000 pairs of Jordan's in this restock.  $20M would represent approximately 1.5% of their Q3 sales direct to consumer and a whopping 0.03% of their Q3 Nike brand sales.  Some may say- "But wait! Q3 should be their best quarter since it spans Dec/Jan/Feb, so $20M in Q4 would represent a higher % than that!"  Very true, but Q2 Nike brand sales were still in excess of $6 billion and direct to consumer sales were in excess of $1.1 billion...

Now, maybe they really are selling 100,000+ pairs of shoes in this restock- who really knows?

For some additional perspective on what 100,000 pairs of shoes really means, let's round some numbers and say that Nike is restocking 12 Jordan models.  Let's assume all sizes from 7-14 (only whole sizes starting from size 12), meaning 13 different sizes.  Assuming they release an average of 500 pairs of each size (which seems really high to me for a restock, but what do I know), that only gets you to 78,000 pairs of shoes.

Lastly, typical recognition of sales direct to consumer would typically be recognized either upon shipment or upon delivery (likely upon shipment in this case since carriers, such as UPS, assume the liability of loss once they take possession of the shipments from Nike), therefore for their Q4/annual financials as long as they ship the shoes prior to the end of May, they can recognize the sales in this current fiscal year.

This is all very high level math and makes certain assumptions, but you get the point.  It would need to be a massive restock for this to matter to Nike's financials.  BUT, if for some reason they do need these peanuts to meet some financial metric, they could wait as long as the last week of May to do the restock and still recognize the sales in their current fiscal year.
 
EvoXR1 said:
 
wish i had a euro shipping address... those KD asg and KO pack would be mine!!! lol
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Theres many third party to use. They pretty much drop ship for you. But kinda costly depends what you get. About $20~40 per shoe.  Buy tiff dunks at retail and having them shipped is well worth it. But not much for stuff like oreos or grapes or 3labs etc... Only worth it if the buying price for us in the USA is at least $50~100 to break good even,+
 
splashbros1 said:
 
Not sure I can shed any light on the timing of the restock, but I can say this- if Nike is counting on the sales from this planned restock in order to meet/beat their 4th quarter revenue or EPS targets, then we all have nothing to worry about cause this would have to be a BIG *** restock.  Plenty of BRED and Royal 1's for everyone!

Some perspective:

Last quarter (Q3), Nike brand generated $6.5 BILLION in sales and $1.3B of that came from direct sales to consumers (i.e. Nike owned retail stores and NDC sales).  I'm not going to even pretend- I have no idea how many pairs of shoes Nike plans to release by model in this restock  (they guard this unit level information very closely), but if you do the high level math and assume the average pair of Jordan's sells for $200 (rounding up here), even to generate $20M in gross sales they would have to sell 100,000 pairs of Jordan's in this restock.  $20M would represent approximately 1.5% of their Q3 sales direct to consumer and a whopping 0.03% of their Q3 Nike brand sales.  Some may say- "But wait! Q3 should be their best quarter since it spans Dec/Jan/Feb, so $20M in Q4 would represent a higher % than that!"  Very true, but Q2 Nike brand sales were still in excess of $6 billion and direct to consumer sales were in excess of $1.1 billion...

Now, maybe they really are selling 100,000+ pairs of shoes in this restock- who really knows?

For some additional perspective on what 100,000 pairs of shoes really means, let's round some numbers and say that Nike is restocking 12 Jordan models.  Let's assume all sizes from 7-14 (only whole sizes starting from size 12), meaning 13 different sizes.  Assuming they release an average of 500 pairs of each size (which seems really high to me for a restock, but what do I know), that only gets you to 78,000 pairs of shoes.

Lastly, typical recognition of sales direct to consumer would typically be recognized either upon shipment or upon delivery (likely upon shipment in this case since carriers, such as UPS, assume the liability of loss once they take possession of the shipments from Nike), therefore for their Q4/annual financials as long as they ship the shoes prior to the end of May, they can recognize the sales in this current fiscal year.

This is all very high level math and makes certain assumptions, but you get the point.  It would need to be a massive restock for this to matter to Nike's financials.  BUT, if for some reason they do need these peanuts to meet some financial metric, they could wait as long as the last week of May to do the restock and still recognize the sales in their current fiscal year.
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u may be on to something....they might be clearing out their entire inventory of some of the older shoes.... if u think about it when have they ever announced a restock like this? they might have done that since they have alot of pairs to sell 
 
G Money 87 said:
u may be on to something....they might be clearing out their entire inventory of some of the older shoes.... if u think about it when have they ever announced a restock like this? they might have done that since they have alot of pairs to sell 
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nike is a monkey see monkey do type of company when it comes to restocks....

they started doing their quarterly restock stuff when they saw how hyped people were getting when Finishline was doing it.

they saw Eastbay and FNL doing it again and put the tweet out this time also.

not sure its really ground breaking that nike announced a restock to be honest.
 
If I had to guess, this restock is them simply getting rid of aging/excess inventory (not about sales or net income/EPS).  This does 2 things- 1) gets the inventory off of their books (minor impact to financials unless this is a massive restock) and 2) frees up valuable warehouse space for them to fill with new product.  Holding onto older inventory doesn't make a whole lot of business sense from an operational standpoint (assuming they are running an efficient shop, which I believe they are).  With that in mind, if they were logistically ready to do the restock this past week, I'm sure they are itching to get those units out the door ASAP.  I don't see them sitting on this restock any longer than they have to now that it's been pulled and staged for prep for shipment.  I also don't think they much care how many people complain about the delay in the restock or lack of clarity as to revised timing.  I think they are simply waiting for a time that is most convenient for them.  Have to keep in mind that they have a pretty set release schedule and plan out releases well in advance for a reason.  I'm sure this is more about them figuring out when they expect to have the resources lined up to execute logistically (order fulfillment side of things).  I think the sooner this restock is over with the better for them, so I'd be shocked if it did not happen by Sunday.  I'm sure they want that inventory gone ASAP now that it's been aggregated and staged for pulling and shipment.  But once again, what do I know?  I'm just a bean counter.
 
positiveaura said:
 
Theres many third party to use. They pretty much drop ship for you. But kinda costly depends what you get. About $20~40 per shoe.  Buy tiff dunks at retail and having them shipped is well worth it. But not much for stuff like oreos or grapes or 3labs etc... Only worth it if the buying price for us in the USA is at least $50~100 to break good even,+
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Any links to third party companies I can use to cop somethin' from EU?
 
bigj505 said:
nike is a monkey see monkey do type of company when it comes to restocks....

they started doing their quarterly restock stuff when they saw how hyped people were getting when Finishline was doing it.

they saw Eastbay and FNL doing it again and put the tweet out this time also.

not sure its really ground breaking that nike announced a restock to be honest.
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This restock was planned. They didn't just put out a tweet as a reaction to Eastbay doing one.

Where do you think Eastbay got all those random size 15-18s from? 
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Nike coordinated it with them.
 
SHABOY said:
bigj505 said:
nike is a monkey see monkey do type of company when it comes to restocks....
they started doing their quarterly restock stuff when they saw how hyped people were getting when Finishline was doing it.
they saw Eastbay and FNL doing it again and put the tweet out this time also.
not sure its really ground breaking that nike announced a restock to be honest.
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This restock was planned. They didn't just put out a tweet as a reaction to Eastbay doing one.

Where do you think Eastbay got all those random size 15-18s from? :lol: Nike coordinated it with them.
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ok.
 
imb4ck said:
Don't know if this one has been posted but thought I'd share...
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Y'all need to understand that Nike said " stay tuned for the new launch date ". That doesn't necessarily means they will tweet the date and time of the restock. Just by randomly tweeting the restock link at any given time of the day/night after the links go live they are " letting you know ".

Just my opinion, i could be wrong and they might tweet an exact day and time so their site crashes again.

But like I always say, you wait for the tweet, you lost.
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I hope this rep is right !
 
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