anyone with any early leans?
After OKST's showing last week on the road against Texas, I'm thinking of riding them again this week -6.5 @ Mizzou.
I will probably stay away because I dont want to bet against LSU, but anyone think that Auburn can cover the +22.5? If anything, maybe its worth a teaser play to get spotted 4 TD's?
Another one that looks somewhat enticing is WVa @ Cuse -13.5. Cuse has little to no homefield advantage and WVa is just leaps and bounds a better team that can score.
I bet more Pac-12 than any other conference because that is the conference I watch and follow more closely than others (UCLA fan). I am a bit hesitant on continuing on the Stanford gravy train, especially in lieu of the advice that Paul or Venom gave about Washingtons potent offense. Maybe Wash in a teaser is the play here? I kinda do like the Oregon -32 against Colorado. -32 is a lot to lay without LaMichael (and also Thomas if he isn't fully healthy) but Barner is still a G and Bryan Bennett looked pretty damn good against a solid ASU team. Colorado is straight trash. They would probably get rolled by a buncha FCS teams. If Oregon comes in trying to make a statement and run up the score, who knows... the 32 could be covered in the 1st half.
One tip/note I wanted to mention. I know its bad form, but I havent posted up a lot of my plays in advance here because usually I am booking bets on the fly not days in advance. I have been fairly successful the last couple of weeks in betting 2nd half lines if certain criteria are met. I've been doing this a bit more with Pac-12 games (but also some others), mostly because they play later in the afternoon and by then I know how many units I am up/down for the day which will affect my tolerance for risk (and also the size of my afternoon bets).
These are the characteristics I look for in targetting 2H bets.
- perceived skill discrepency between the two teams. no closely matched games or teams.
- underdog has managed to keep the game closer than expected (easily covering their 1H line)
- favorite has a potent offense capable of putting up a lot of points
- favorite had several untimely turnovers that resulted in terrible field position which allowed the underdog to score
Some of the games I've bet and won this way
Hawaii 2H against SJ State
Oregon against Cal
Oregon against Arizona State (this one was a bit trickier since I do think that ASU is a good team)
Stanford against Washington State
i know its an imperfect science at best (and no science at worst) and it could just be blind dumb luck that has won these games for me in the past, but its something I will continue to monitor and bet on until I rack up a large losing streak at it.
