My UFC 122 Write Up
It looks like the oddsmakers are finally catching up, cause I am pretty stumped with this card. Due to my degenerate nature, its tough for me to sitout an entire card, but I'm just not seeing any solid leans right off the bat. That being said... here goes.
5dimes current lines used for analysis
Main Event
Marquardt (-200) v. Okami (+185)
Its no secret that I am a Marquardt fan. Even though I got decimated in the Marq v. Sonnen fight (I still dont think it was a terrible bet at -550 or whatever it was, knowing what we knew about Sonnen at that time), Marq has been a steady winner for me before and after that one fight. By no means is Okami a slouch. I am also an Okami fan, and if I didn't have a betting interest in the fight, I would honestly be happy with either fighter winning.
Now comparing the two fighters, they are kinduva clone of each other. Both are large MW's so neither is really going to come in with a noticable size or strength advantage. On the feet I give a slight advantage to Marq. He tends to mix it up pretty well, and utilizes some nice leg kicks with his punching. In terms of takedowns, I've read that Okami has a background in Judo although I haven't really seen him utilize a ton of judo throws. Both fighters are monster GnPers once they get top position, but I don't know if this fight is gonna go to the mat. I expect to see a stand up battle here, and think we are only going to see takedown attempts if a fighter gets frustrated on the feet and/or gets "rocked". Now whether that "slight advantage" is worth paying -200... thats a tough call. Personally, I'm leaning on making a small play here (my book actually has it at -215). I just dont see Okami KO'ing Marq on the feet. Look at the Okami v. Munoz fight. I think Munoz's standup is fairly rudimentary and its not like Okami was destroying him on the feet. Although -200 is not a great price for Marq (I wish it was closer to -175) I think I am still going to make a small play here.
Reljic (-107) v. Sosynzki (-103)
Reljic has not shown anything close to the hype/potential we saw prior to the injury. I know that Sos is not much more than a lower end gatekeeper (possibly even lower than that) but until we see some flashes of greatness from Reljic, I am cautious about putting any money on him. I think if we see the same Reljic that we saw the last 2 fights, Sos takes this one. Sos has been in there with pretty good jits guys before, and he's not an easy guy to sub. He kinda has a bit of a funky unorthodox standup which might be difficult for Reljic to time. My only concern really is with Sos's gas tank. If this fight goes 3 rounds, and its split 1-1, will he have enough to turn it on and try to take Rd 3 for the decision? At -103 thats what I am betting on.
quick notes
Siver (-11
v. Winner (+10
dude's name is winner. what more do you want? I really like Winner's game. Good young fighter who seems to be showing growth each time out. I still think he kinda got a raw deal on his last fight against The Blanket aka Nik Lentz. Siver has a different skill set than Lentz and will not be able to pull of a Lay n Pray W. While Siver is supposed to be a high level striker, with my untrained eyes it seems like he kinda has a plodding telegraphed style. Winner is pretty light on his feet and likes to bounce around. If he can stay out of the range of that stupid spinning back kick and stay out of the clinch, I think he can out point Siver on the feet. At +108 its hard to call Winner a "dog" but heres another pick I kinda like.
Potential Live Dog
Ferreira (+245) v. Matyushenko
To be honest, I dont really know much about this cat Ferreira. Chute Box product, seems to be built like Rousimar Palhares (5'7 205lb? +!#????) and has a majority of his wins via submission. Matyushenko is in the twilight of his career, and if this tree stump of a man can take Matyushenko to the ground, maybe we see a quick sub victory. At +245 it might be worth a flyer.