Doing well in NFL so far...
Tomorrow:
Bengals - 5.5
Chargers +6
Jags+6
Love these.
I was just gonna bring up the public overreaction to the previous weeks game vs. a bettors understanding of why lines are made the way they are
I asked my friend on his thoughts on the UCLA/Texas game today and he strongly suggested UCLA would roll. Without ever mentioning gambling he told me this and I loosely experimented with his "public" knowledge and laid money (small amount) on Texas because he shares that public opinion that most people have, based on the recency effect (a real psychological "thing" that NT brings to the forefront weekly). I won the bet. Not to say that it's that easy, but it's pretty much a fundamental philosophy of sharps, that is, go against the public.
Just thought I'd share this...Might be a "duh" kind of mention, but I really feel like a bettors perspective makes us look at things in a more objective, open-minded way. Having said that, in the NFL, no spread is too big...Mostly.
The picks that fraij posted can be 1. attested to the fact that he knows his ****, but 2. that those plays all go against public perception.
Falcons thoroughly impressed against a team a lot of people have going to the SB. Natural reaction is to say they roll against a Cincy team that struggled versus a Ravens team that still holds a recent perception of great defense/above average O. In this "on paper" scenario, Falcons kill them....Nah. There's more, but that's the jist.
TLDR, cut short, you can do your own analysis on those other two games and come up with similar scenarios...
Just my two cents that I've learned over the years about not just winning one week, but in the long run.
