Winds of change sweep NL Central
Cubs, Brewers again expected to be class of new-look division
You might want to keep that scorecard handy this spring if you're spending time watching National League Central teams. More than any division in either league, the NL Central has had significant turnover since last season.
Gone from the division are one-time fixtures like Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, David Eckstein, Mark Prior, Craig Biggio, Brad Lidge, Adam Everett, Geoff Jenkins and Josh Hamilton. In their place comes Miguel Tejada, Michael Bourn, Kaz Matsui, Jose Valverde, Darin Erstad, Mike Cameron, Jason Kendall, Eric Gagne, Troy Glaus and Kosuke Fukudome.
Of the 54 players in the 2007 Opening Day lineups for the NL Central teams, at least 26 and perhaps as many as 30 won't be there on Opening Day in 2008.
The changing of the guard wasn't restricted to between the baselines. Cincinnati, Houston and Pittsburgh all begin the year with managers and general managers who weren't in their current post on Opening Day a year ago.
Some things haven't changed.
The defending division champion Cubs look like the team to beat again this year, with Milwaukee once again figuring to be right there with Chicago.
The revamped Astros, Cardinals and especially the Reds, if their pitching comes through, could be surprise teams, but for now, they handicap behind the Cubs and Brewers, while rebuilding Pittsburgh will try to get out of the division basement under new manager John Russell.
The favorite
Cubs
The Cubs have their question marks, like will Fukudome, the new right fielder, hit Major League pitching as well as he hit Japan's Central League, where he had a career .305 batting average and .397 on-base percentage the last nine years? Is Felix Pie ready to be the everyday center fielder? And is Geovany Soto ready to be the No. 1 catcher? Legit questions, but those are overshadowed by a deep rotation led by Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly, a strong bullpen and a Derrek Lee/Alfonso Soriano-fueled offense that scored 752 runs a year ago and should top that this season.
Projected regular-season finish: NL Central champions
Biggest ST challenge: How will Lou Piniella utilize Kerry Wood? He can obviously set up, but he might be a dynamite closer. With power arms like Wood, Carlos Marmol and Bobby Howry to choose from, it's the kind of problem any manager would love to have.
Best position battles: Other than the back end of the rotation, where Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall and Ryan Dempster are among the candidates, the Cubs are pretty much set, with only bullpen and backup roles to be tweaked. Dempster is moving from closer to starter, but starting is a role he's handled well in the past.
Wild card: If Pie and Soto aren't ready and/or Ryan Theriot succumbs to a sophomore jinx, the Cubs offense could be plagued by the inconsistent stretches that befell it at times early last year.
More: Spring Training preview |
Quick hits |
Spring schedule and tickets
The challengers
Brewers
The rotation was a disappointment, the team was charged with 109 errors and ace Ben Sheets made only five starts during the final 10 weeks of the season. And yet the Brewers led the division most of the way and still finished only two games behind eventual champ Chicago. The Brewers have to replace Francisco Cordero, who signed with Cincinnati, but if Eric Gagne or Derrick Turnbow can handle the job and the starters who stumbled in '07 can bounce back, the Brewers should be better. The Brewers will also have Yovani Gallardo (4-1 with a 1.58 ERA in his last six starts) from the get-go this time, and Jason Kendall behind the plate. The defense is immediately better, with Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun moving to left field and Bill Hall taking Braun's spot at third, and Mike Cameron taking over in center field. An offense which led the NL with 231 homers last year should once again top 800 runs.
Projected regular-season finish: Second place
Biggest ST challenge: Slotting all the new arms (Salomon Torres, David Riske, Guillermo Mota) in the bullpen.
Best position battles: The final spot in the rotation, where Chris Capuano and Dave Bush are among several candidates for a spot behind Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Yovani Gallardo and Carlos Villanueva.
Wild card: Gagne had his struggles with Boston last year and Turnbow suffered from wildness on occasion. The Brewers need both to come through as few things undermine a team's morale faster than lost confidence in a closer.
More: Spring Training preview |
Quick hits |
Spring schedule and tickets
Astros
You might not recognize these guys, as a lot has changed from last year. This time the Astros have a new GM (Ed Wade), new manager (Cecil Cooper), a new up-the-middle (catcher J.R. Towles, shortstop Miguel Tejada, second baseman Kaz Matsui, center fielder Bourn) and a new closer (Jose Valverde). The Astros could open the season with as few as six players who were on the Opening Day roster last year. But they still have Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman leading the offense and Roy Oswalt anchoring the rotation, and combined with the new talent and holdovers like Hunter Pence, this team won't finish 16 games under .500 in 2008. And if Woody Williams, Brandon Backe and the other starters behind Oswalt can bounce back, the Astros could make things very interesting.
Projected regular-season finish: Third place
Biggest ST challenge: Getting all of the new players, especially on the infield, as much work together as possible.
Best position battles: Felipe Paulino is among the candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. Yordany Ramirez could give Reggie Abercrombie a run for the fourth outfielder spot.
Wild card: The Astros fully expect Tejada to play, but if the shortstop isn't available -- the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform asked the U.S. Department of Justice to open an investigation into whether Tejada gave false statements to members of the same committee in 2005 about his use of performance-enhancing drugs -- it would create a gaping hole in the lineup.
More: Spring Training preview |
Quick hits |
Spring schedule and tickets
Cardinals
A busy offseason that saw the Cardinals part ways with Edmonds, Rolen and Eckstein makes St. Louis something of a mystery team heading into Spring Training. Though it's probably a stretch to call this a rebuilding, this retooling of sorts in an effort to get younger makes it hard to predict where this team will finish. Add in the fact that ace Chris Carpenter probably won't be back before the All-Star break and it is hard to pick this team to contend. But they still have Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright and a stout bullpen, and if youngsters like center fielder Colby Rasmus are as good as advertised and the Cards can hang close until Carpenter gets back, who knows? Remember that the Cubs won the division with only 85 wins last year.
Projected regular-season finish: Fourth place
Biggest ST challenge: If the season started today, the Cards outfield would perhaps be, from left to right, Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel and Skip Schumaker. Duncan hit 43 homers over the last two seasons, but the other two are unproven. The Cards need to find additional outfield production.
Best position battles: Right field, where Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick and others will be in the running. Also, the last two starting spots behind Wainwright, Braden Looper and Joel Pineiro should be an interesting competition between recently signed Matt Clement, Anthony Reyes and one or two others.
Wild card: There's uncertainty, but there are also fewer distractions with this team and less pressure. For the first time in a few years, the Cardinals aren't being picked to win the division, and we don't think Tony La Russa would have returned as manager if he didn't think this team had a chance to win.
More: Spring Training preview |
Quick hits |
Spring schedule and tickets
The long shot
Reds
The Reds won't lose 90 games again this season, but they'll only go as far as their kids can carry them. For one thing, the arrival of Cordero, the free-agent closer who signed a four-year contract with a club option for 2012, should at least make certain the Reds don't blow as many save opportunities as last year. The Reds frittered away 28, the second most in baseball, and the bullpen had baseball's worst ERA at 5.10. But with question marks beyond Cordero and the only two established starters (Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo) the pitching overall is once again iffy, though adding Jeremy Affeldt helps. And if Edinson Volquez, acquired from Texas in the Hamilton trade, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto blossom, the Reds might be on to something. They'll need a few other rookies besides pitchers to come through, particularly Jay Bruce in center field and Joey Votto at first base, but if the youngsters are ready to play, the Reds might be ready to make a move.
Projected regular-season finish: Fifth place
Biggest ST challenge: New manager Dusty Baker will have his hands full with this team, which in recent years has usually started fast before fading. His biggest challenge with at least two positions will be deciding whether to go with the youngster or stick with the veteran.
Best position battles: Center field, where wunderkind Bruce will either win the job or return to the Minor Leagues, and first base, where hot prospect Votto will try to beat out veteran Scott Hatteberg.
Wild card: If Arroyo bounces back and Bailey, Cueto and Volquez prove they are ready, look out.
More: Spring Training preview |
Quick hits |
Spring schedule and tickets
Maybe next year
Pirates
With not enough power or pitching to contend this year, the Pirates must look for progress from their core of emerging players. The team ERA of 4.93 last season was indicative of the kind of inconsistent play the young Pirates displayed last year, and although the team has a new manager and impressive young talent like Tom Gorzelanny and Ronny Paulino, there's just not enough proven depth here to inspire confidence in this team's chances of moving out of the cellar in 2008.
Projected regular-season finish: Last place
Biggest ST challenge: Russell takes over a young team not expected to do much. The challenge for Pittsburgh is trying to avoid losing 90-plus games again. That task starts the moment camp opens.
Best position battles: All eyes will be on center field, where Nyjer Morgan and Nate McLouth will compete for the starting job.
Wild card: Good pitching can accelerate a rebuilding process, and the Pirates, with four starters under 27, have an abundance of good young arms who have gained valuable experience over the last couple of years. If they keep improving, the Pirates could rise sooner rather than later.
More: Spring Training preview |
Quick hits |
Spring schedule and tickets
You read it here first ...
1) A now healthy Jon Lieber wins the fifth spot in the Cubs rotation and pitches like he did two years ago, when he won 17 games for Philadelphia.
2) The Pirates and outfielder Jason Bay part ways by the July 31 trade deadline.
3) Milwaukee's Hall thrives following the move to third base with a career year at the plate.
Projected batting order
1. 2B Brandon Phillips:
.288 BA, .331 OBP, .485 SLG, 30 HR, 94 RBIs in 2007
2. 1B Joey Votto:
.321 BA, .360 OBP, .548 SLG, 4 HR, 17 RBIs in 2007
3. RF Ken Griffey Jr.:
.277 BA, .372 OBP, .496 SLG, 30 HR, 93 RBIs in 2007
4. 3B Edwin Encarnacion:
.289 BA, .356 OBP, .438 SLG, 15 HR, 76 RBIs in 2007
5. LF Adam Dunn:
.264 BA, .386 OBP, .554 SLG, 40 HR, 106 RBIs in 2007
6. CF Jay Bruce:
.319 BA, .375 OBP, .587 SLG, 26 HR, 89 RBIs in 2007 [Minors]
7. SS Alex Gonzalez:
.272 BA, .325 OBP, .468 SLG, 16 HR, 55 RBIs in 2007
8. C David Ross:
.203 BA, .271 OBP, .399 SLG, 17 HR, 39 RBIs in 2007
damn, there's a lot of pop in that lineup.
