[h1]Clayton Kershaw breaking out; Justin Upton struggling[/h1]
By Jason Grey
ESPN.com
(
Archive)
April 13, 2009, 4:36 PM
There are a lot of expectations surrounding
Clayton Kershaw this season, and even at 21 years old, he might be ready to meet them.
I wrote in spring training how much the young southpaw impressed scouts in camp and that he appeared ready to take the next step up as far as commanding his pitches at the big league level, thanks to a more consistent line to the plate and less of a tendency to overthrow.
So far, so good after his first start. Though he managed to get through just five innings while throwing 105 pitches in his debut, it was encouraging to see that despite his control's wandering at times, he was able to command within the zone OK. Considering he didn't throw his secondary stuff, especially his vaunted curveball, a whole lot, it was good to see him have a solid outing in which fastball command was a large part of his success.
"For me, the key is getting ahead of hitters," Kershaw said. "I'm not a control pitcher. I'm not going to be a guy that paints the corner; I'm going to attack on the white. If you get ahead of the hitters, you can get away with more, so my main focus is just getting ahead."
He's slowed his delivery down a touch, which helps make it a bit more repeatable, and has lowered his leg kick in the stretch, which is mostly to hold runners a bit better but has some ancillary benefits in keeping his stretch mechanics more consistent.
"I'm mostly the same pitcher, but I think I'm more in control and not trying to speed the game up as much, like I did last year," Kershaw said. "Last year I would just get the ball and throw. This year I'm trying to pitch with more of a purpose."
It was also encouraging to see some development in his changeup; a circle change variety that looks like an improved offering over last season. Last year, he was throwing it too hard, and it didn't have enough separation from his fastball. However, based on a couple of his spring starts and the handful of times he threw it in his first start of the season, it looks like he's been able to take a little more off it while maintaining his arm speed and not tipping the pitch. In addition, he's been throwing it for strikes.
"It has improved a lot," Kershaw said. "My main purpose this offseason was to get my change to where I feel confident with it. It's a mental thing; having the confidence to throw it the way you want to in a game is something you can't really learn. You just have to keep throwing it. Spring training was great for me, with throwing it a lot in game situations, and I felt a lot better with it in my first start."
Having a solid third pitch in his arsenal to keep batters off the curveball is only going to make him that much more dangerous this season. We expected some improvement this season just by virtue of his having a year of big league experience under his belt, but another good offering in his repertoire could accelerate his progress even faster.
Kershaw may not go too deep into games most nights, which will hurt his win potential a bit. However, he will rack up the strikeouts, command well enough to offset his walks and maintain a solid WHIP, and keep his ERA solidly under 4. In short, a pitcher worth starting every time out in any league.
[h3]
Extremely Small Sample Size Statistics And Observations[/h3]
Are these things guaranteed to matter by the end of the year? Of course not, I can't even guarantee they'll matter by tomorrow, but they sure are something to keep tabs on.
- As a team, the Dodgers are walking a lot more this year. They rank 3rd in the majors by walking in 13.1% of their plate appearances. Last year's team? 9.0%.
- The Dodgers are also much more disciplined this year. They are chasing pitches out of the zone only 23.0% of the time. Compare that with 27.7% of the time last year, which was tied for 5th worst in the majors.
- Russell Martin's struggles aren't all the fault of his .231 BABIP, at least not while his LD% is 12.5%.
- Martin is taking a lot of pitches this year, swinging only 34.4% of the time compared to a league average of 44.3%. It's not necessarily being patient either, as he's swinging at just 52.2% of strikes, compared to the league average of 64.6%.
- Notice that Matt Kemp and Martin aren't get challenged much this season? Well, it's true. Kemp is seeing a mere 52.7% fastballs, but Martin is seeing even less at 46.4%.
- On the other hand, Dodger pitchers are really challenging hitters this year with their excellent fastballs. They have thrown 74.0% fastballs as a staff, 5.3% ahead of the second place Mets in the majors.
- Uncoincidentally, the Dodgers also lead the majors in first pitch strikes, at 64.2%.
- So who are opposing pitchers challenging? Orlando Hudson (69.7%) and James Loney (69.2%).
- Your eyes are not decieving you, Jonathan Broxton's average fastball this year is 97.3 mph. His average fastball velocity has increased in every year since his debut.
- You know Ronald Belisario? The guy who hasn't had real success past AA? Well he looks absolutely great, and a lot of it is thanks to his 94.7 mph average fastball. We'll see how long it lasts.
- As a minor update to a previous post, Cory Wade's fastball topped out at 88.3 mph the other day, and averaged a mere 87.3 mph. It's his 3rd straight appearance with dropping velocity.
- If Kemp looks a lot better in center field this year, it's because he is. So far, he's posted a 1.1 UZR.
- My concern for Furcal's back and Hudson's wrist affecting their defense has been completely unjustified thus far. They are combining for a 2.0 UZR.
- Even more of a shocker is Blake posting a 0.8 UZR through 7 games. That's likely to come down eventually, but besides a few choice gaffes, he's actully looked solid there thus far.
Also, congratulations to Hudson for being the 2nd Dodger ever to hit for the cycle.
