OFFICIAL 2010-2011 NBA PLAYOFFS THREAD : VOL. MOST. ANTICIPATED. PLAYOFFS. EVER?

proshares · Oct 27, 2010

Larry !$%%, ESPN.com: Carmelo Anthony, his suitors, and the Denver Nuggets are eyeing each other like the final scene of "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," watching to see who twitches first.

PERFECT analogy.

pmatic · Oct 27, 2010

In other news, it looks like Shannon Brown improved his jump shot over the summer.

I also liked that he didn't overdribble like he has in the past. He just shot the ball with no hesitation.

Then again, I always thought he was a decent spot up shooter.

shoeking2101 · Oct 27, 2010

Grizzlies Hawks, lets go o.j.

shoeking2101 · Oct 27, 2010

Grizzlies Hawks, lets go o.j.

proshares · Oct 27, 2010

http://[h3]

[h3]James' ballhandling[/h3]
12:32PM ET

Despite the fact the Heat have Mario Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo at PG, many have speculated this summer that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will be the ones doing the majority of the ballhandling for the Heat this season.

And in the first game of the season Tuesday night in a loss against Boston, the speculation played to form.

Via ESPN Stats & Info, James brought the ball up 37 times, Wade 21 times, Arroyo 14 times and Eddie House one time.

So will James continue to lead by such a large margin? Hard to say after just one game. But it's likely it won't always be this way.

Tuesday night, James was about the only offensive weapon the Heat had going, so they rode him for the majority of the second half. Wade and others won't always be so cold from the field.

Yet, as ESPN's Tom Haberstroh wrote after the game, James dominating the ballhandling duties certainly has its benefits:

--- Ryan Corazza

[h5]ESPN's Tom Haberstroh[/h5]
James' selfishness creates unselfishness

"The key for the Heat and James going forward will be to appreciate that his selfishness actually unleashes his playmaking abilities. When James attacks the basket, he lures the attention of the opponents and forces them to collapse. And that's when LeBron's unselfish gene kicks in and his court awareness leads to the open man. In many ways, LeBron's selfishness breeds the unselfishness that will lift his teammates to new heights. But give the Celtics defense credit. Boston's strategy was unmistakable from the opening tip: pack it in and coerce LeBron James to settle for a half-decent shot on the perimeter."

Click to expand...

[/h3]

http://[h3]Fields gets starting gig[/h3]
12:11PM ET

In a bit of a surprise move, Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni has decided to start rookie and second-round draft pick Landry Fields at shooting guard Wednesday night in their opener against the Raptors.

Fields had a pretty impressive preseason, but it would be even more surprising if he hangs onto the gig all season.

Once Kelenna Azubuike returns from injury, it's expected he'll have a good shot at securing the starting role at SG.

Additionally, guys like Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas could also swoop in and take the spot if Fields has troubles as a rookie starter in the regular season.

So it's his job for now. But he'll have plenty of competition as the season progresses.

-- Ryan Corazza

[h5]Jared Zwerling of ESPN New York[/h5]
Fields has a good motor

"From the time D'Antoni blew his first practice whistle until the final preseason game Friday against the Raptors, Fields showed a nonstop motor, quickness to get into the paint area and even a steady three-point shot. Although in the last two games he was 50% from downtown, that's the one area on offense he'll need to work on because he'll be getting open looks from the wing and baseline corner while Raymond Felton and Amare Stoudemire run the pick-and-roll and draw defenders. While Chandler was thought to have been the team's clear choice at the starting two, he's been a step slow in the preseason, perhaps still feeling the effects from an offseason calf injury and sports hernia surgery. And while Walker had a decent percentage from downtown during the preseason (41.7%), he hasn't shown much else in his game. If Azubuike was healthy, he'd most likely get the call to start (Wednesday night) for his slashing, shooting and defensive abilities, but he's not, so D'Antoni decided to go with Fields. Although Fields won't be a double-figure scoring threat right away, he'll be all over the court on defense, diving for loose balls, and he'll bring a faster pace and constant attack mode to the Knicks' first unit on offense, which will especially help them make plays collectively in halfcourt sets. So far, it's been all Stoudemire. Overall, Fields has a chance to be the Knick' version of Matt Barnes -- he's also 6'7", just 16 pounds bigger -- who in the past two years has earned a reputation for making big baskets and defensive stops in the playoffs for the Suns and Magic, respectively."

http://[h3]The future in Phoenix[/h3]
11:45AM ET

[h5]Phoenix Suns [/h5]

The Suns uptempo attack put them No. 1 in offensive efficiency last season.

But after the loss of Amare Stoudemire this offseason -- which has weakened their pick-and-roll game -- and a rough preseason, Steve Nash isn't speaking too highly of his team's chances to make the playoffs this season.

And as ESPN's John Hollinger notes, so far, there are signs the Suns' offense is set for a pretty sizable decline.

As such, don't rule out the possibility of a Nash or Grant Hill trade for the team this season if they're struggling.

More on this from Hollinger:

-- Ryan Corazza

[h5]ESPN's John Hollinger[/h5]
If Suns struggle, does it make sense to keep Nash?

"Phoenix is another point guard-driven franchise and is fresh off a trip to the Western Conference finals, but it faces a slew of questions after a head-scratching offseason that left the Suns a few bodies short up front and minus the spectacular finishing talents of Stoudemire. (As Suns coach Alvin Gentry pointedly told me before the Phoenix-Portland game Tuesday night, Stoudemire is the best dive man in the league on the pick-and-roll and there's no way Hakim Warrick or anybody else is replacing what he did.) The Suns went 2-6 in preseason, with losses by 21, 38 and 51 points, and the scary thing is that the seven-seconds-or-less attack cleared 100 points only once in eight tries -- in the game they lost by 38. The fact they left Portland with only 92, including a meager 11 in the fourth quarter, offers further evidence that the league's best offense every year for the past half-decade may emphatically cede that crown this season ... Nash loves the desert and certainly benefits from the Suns' world-class training staff, but how much longer does he endure the penny-pinching ownership and the fact that the final years of his prime will be spent scratching and clawing to get the No. 8 seed in the West? All his interviews sound like he's trying to talk himself into optimism through gritted teeth, but the reality is that his owner nuked a team (and front office) that was two wins from the Finals and, if he stays put, Nash and Co. are probably going to the lottery. Even if Nash doesn't push for a trade, what sense does it make for the Suns to hang on to him (and Hill, for that matter) if they're bumbling along toward 32-50? Wouldn't it be more prudent at that point to trade their four 30-something starters and rebuild?"

http://[h3]Increased output for Afflalo?[/h3]
11:15AM ET

[h5]Arron Afflalo | Nuggets [/h5]

Despite starting at shooting guard for the Nuggets last season and averaging just a tick over 27 minutes a game, Arron Afflalo's offensive contributions were pretty pedestrian, as he averaged just 8.8 points a contest.

But if the preseason is any indication, Afflalo may be a bigger offensive threat this year.

Afflalo average 20.4 points in the preseason, and though there's no guarantee it's going to corolate to the regular season, coach George Karl has indicated to the Denver Post that the team has worked to get Afflalo more into the scoring mix.

"I think that everybody sees we're trying to tilt the game a bit towards Arron and Ty Lawson," Karl told the paper.

As ESPN's John Hollinger has written, if Afflalo continues to hit his 3-pointers at the same rate while increasing his frequency on attempts, he'll likely give himself a better shot to shine on offense.

And if Carmelo Anthony ever gets traded this season, such increased output may be of need in Denver.

-- Ryan Corazza

[h5]ESPN's John Hollinger[/h5]
To become more of a factor on offense, Afflalo needs to commit to the 3

"Afflalo makes for a decent stopgap because of his defense, but if he's going to be a viable long-term starter, he has to make a greater impact at the offensive end. Fortunately, there's a path to doing so that he already embarked upon last season: becoming a 3-point specialist. Afflalo hit 43.4 percent of his 3s, his second straight season at better than 40 percent. Clearly he can stroke it. The problem is he regularly steps inside the arc -- only 43 percent of his shots were 3s. Usually for a specialist with this kind of accuracy, it will be well more than half. Afflalo isn't being asked to create shots off the dribble or anything; in fact, he had the fourth-lowest Usage Rate at his position. He's just choosing to step in off the catch too often, and it's the wrong choice. He has to be a high-efficiency 3-point sniper in this role. If he's ducking in to shoot 2s or drive to the basket, he's not nearly as great a threat."

http://[h3]Smith starting ... for now[/h3]
10:53AM ET

[h5]Joe Smith | Nets [/h5]

According to the Bergen Record, veteran Joe Smith is expected to start at power forward in the Nets' Wednesday night opener against the Pistons.

But don't expect it to last. Troy Murphy has been hampered by a back injury, and just returned to practice.

Once healthy enough to play, Murphy should claim the starting PF role opposite Brook Lopez in the frontcourt.

Rookie Derrick Favors and Kris Humphries will also be in the mix during the season, and if Favors can show improvement off his rather quiet preseason, it's possible he'll be the first PF off the bench behind Murphy at some point this season.

-- Ryan Corazza

[h5]ESPN's John Hollinger[/h5]
Nets should improve from last season

"The nice thing about crash-landing at the bottom of the standings is that it will only get better from here. The Nets didn't achieve the Plan A of nabbing LeBron James and starting a dramatic overnight recovery, but they should start returning to respectability this season. Harris is likely to play better than he did a year ago, Lopez is a rising star in the post and the forwards are about a thousand times better than last season's peanut gallery. Plus, Avery Johnson should prove helpful, at least on the sideline. He's coached Harris before, and while that relationship was rocky at times, he knows how to use him to good effect. Johnson also is likely to demand much more from Devin Harris and Lopez at the defensive end -- since both of them loafed on D a year ago. Nonetheless, this won't be an overnight recovery. The Nets can expect nightly beatings in front of puny crowds in their first season in Newark. However, the Nets can take solace in the fact that somebody else will be this year's NBA doormat, while they become one of the rare teams to double their win total from the year before."

http://[h3]No regrets for Gilbert?[/h3]
10:35AM ET

[h5]Cleveland Cavaliers [/h5]

Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert did a Q-and-A with The Plain Dealer and was asked if he regretted his public reaction when LeBron James decided to leave Cleveland for Miami.

"My letter was to the fans and supporters of Cleveland. People get a little confused because they think it was a general statement to the world or even to LeBron or to whoever," said Gilbert. "It really was to the fans and supporters of Cleveland, and I wanted to make sure they knew where I stood and where the franchise stood and how we felt, which apparently was pretty similar to the way they were feeling. No, we don't have any regrets. We're looking forward to the future and we're focused on the future and all that other stuff, but I don't really think about it in that way."

He was also asked if the fans and media are dwelling on James' decision way too much.

"Until there's something to fill -- you had it happen in July and the season doesn't start until November -- so until there's something else to fill the hole or the gap, you can understand it," he said. "So I'm hoping once the season starts, that we've got enough exciting things to go on that it truly becomes the past, but you certainly understand it."

http://[h3]Hornets sale on track[/h3]
10:33AM ET

[h5]New Orleans Hornets [/h5]

UPDATE No. 2: According to Jimmy Smith of The Times-Picayune, minority owner Gary Chouest is still in line to buy controlling interest of the Hornets.

Smith writes in Wednesday's newspaper: "Chouest, who has maintained a low profile since acquiring a stake in the team in 2007 that has swelled to 35 percent, seems to be accepting a more visible role in the team's operation. ... It has become clear, therefore, that Chouest soon will be in complete control, although when that will happen remains uncertain. League sources have indicated that both parties are attempting to work out final details of an agreement that was first reached in May after word leaked in early April that George Shinn was ready to relinquish his controlling interest in the team."

----

UPDATE: Peter Vecsey of the New York Post also reports that Chouset is still in the mix to buy controlling interest in the Hornets.

Vecsey writes: "Contrary to a Daily News report, Hornets minority owner Gary Chouest has not bailed on his objective to become the majority shareholder. Team officials continue to work directly with him to make that a reality, maintains someone in the conversation."

----

Since the spring, it's been believed Gary Chouset will purchase the majority stake of the Hornets from George Shinn.

But so far, nothing has consummated.

And Mitch Lawrence of the New York Daily News is reporting the deal is now off.

"According to a league official familiar with the Hornets' rocky ownership situation, the deal fell apart," he wrote.

Yet, Jimmy Smith of the New Orleans Times-Picayune is refuting the Daily News report.

"Sources tell me NY Daily News story claiming Chouest has dropped bid to purchase controlling interest in Hornets completely false," he tweeted. "Sale of Shinn's remaining 65 percent of Hornets still expected to be consummated and Chouest will be the buyer."

It was believed Chouset was set on keeping Chris Paul and building around him once he assumed ownership, so it's possible that if the Daily News report rings true, Paul might have a higher chance of being dealt -- though the current ownership setup doesn't seem interested in dealing him at this current juncture, either.

-- Ryan Corazza

http://[h3]Jordan to stand pat?[/h3]
9:56AM ET

[h5]Charlotte Bobcats [/h5]

According to The Charlotte Observer, since Larry Brown became the head coach of the Bobcats, the team has made nine trades, involving 27 players. Owner Michael Jordan admits there have been so many deals since the team has not drafted well and they've been willing to take chances.

Entering the new season, Jordan says he'd prefer to keep the roster that's been assembled because he likes the core players -- Gerald Wallace, Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw and Tyrus Thomas.

"It's less likely (they'd make a major deal) right now," Jordan said. "I think we're stronger now, and know what we have. Roles are starting to be filled better than they were in the past. I'm not going to say that we won't (make a trade), but it is less likely."

"I want to see them get out of the blocks quick and have our continuity better than searching for it over the first 18 games," Jordan added.

Seven of the 15 players on the Bobcats opening night roster have been acquired via a trade.

http://[h3]Wrist surgery in Barbosa's future?[/h3]
7:47AM ET

[h5]Leandro Barbosa | Raptors [/h5]

Leandro Barbosa had surgery last season on his right wrist and he could need another one in the future after a visit to the doctor. Barbosa hurt the wrist on Friday and was told he'll need another procedure at some point.

"I had a surgery [last season] and I don't know if they didn't do it right or they didn't finish right so they want me to come back for the playoffs [but] there's no ligament at all," he told the Globe and Mail. "The surgery I did was to remove a cyst. The cyst was attached to the ligament, so when they took out the cyst the ligament was already bad."

Even though the wrist is hurting, Barbosa hopes to play against the Knicks.

"It's not 100 percent, but I'm going to play and be there with my teammates and try to do my best ... so if I feel comfortable, everything will be okay. If not then I'll have to do a couple of things."

http://[h3]Kapono to start over Turner[/h3]
7:01AM ET

[h5]Jason Kapono | 76ers [/h5]

76ers head coach Doug Collins named his starters for Wednesday's opener and it doesn't include the No. 2 pick, Evan Turner, from the 2010 draft.

"I really don't have what I would call a first five but I think I'll start, unless something dramatic happens, Jrue Holiday and 'Dre [Andre Iguodala] and Jason Kapono and Spencer Hawes and Elton Brand," Collins to the Philadelphia Daily News. "That's the group we've sort of been going with. Kapono brings an element to that group that we need and that's making shots, and we feel like coming off the bench we have guys who will blend well with the others."

Turner understands why he'll be a backup to begin the season.

"Kapono has been shooting the ball very well and he has been making the first group better," Turner said. "Jrue, 'Dre and myself are the type of players who facilitate and need the ball. It is what it is. It's not about me, it's about the team. With this unit we won the last [preseason] game, so I can't complain."

http://[h3]Magic may activate Williams[/h3]
6:41AM ET

[h5]Jason Williams | Magic [/h5]

Jason Williams, who had arthroscopic surgery Sept. 30 to clear debris from his left knee, had a full practice Tuesday and he may be activated for Thursday's opener.

"It felt fine," Williams told the Orlando Sentinel. "My wind is not where it should be, but I think that's pretty par for the course. I've just got to keep working every day and try to get it back."

Williams will be the third point guard behind Jameer Nelson and Chris Duhon.

"I anticipate no problems," he said. "If there was any inclination or anything that I thought my knee was going to hurt I wouldn't have done what I did today."

http://[h3]Flynn still cautious[/h3]
6:12AM ET

[h5]Jonny Flynn | Timberwolves [/h5]

Jonny Flynn, recovering from hip surgery, was cleared for limited practice on Tuesday. He won't rush back as he doesn't want a setback.

"I was told that everything has healed correctly, but I still want to take it slow," Flynn told the Pioneer Press. "I still have to listen to my body and be cautious."

Flynn thinks he can return to the lineup in mid-November.

"We started out the huddle asking who's the new kid out here," Wolves head coach Kurt Rambis said. "It's good to have him back out here to get him acclimated."

http://[h3]Extensions for Hammond and Skiles[/h3]
5:57AM ET

[h5]Milwaukee Bucks [/h5]

Bucks owner Herb Kohl wanted general manager John Hammond and head coach Scott Skiles to be with the team long-term and on Tuesday he exercised the option year on Hammond's contract and extended Skiles' deal by one season. Both are now under contract through the 2012-13 season.

"I just want to say how grateful I am to the Senator and to the organization for picking up the option," Hammond told the Journal Sentinel.

"Scott and I have had a very good working relationship and it's another part of the reason we've had some success," Hammond added.

Hammond was executive of the year last season and Skiles was second in the coach of the year voting.

http://[h3]Jennings wants to avoid soph. slump [/h3]
5:45AM ET

[h5]Brandon Jennings | Bucks [/h5]

Brandon Jennings had a terrific rookie season for the Bucks. He started every game the team played last year and he had the epic 55-point outburst against Golden State. Many players follow up a solid first season with the dreaded sophomore slump and that's something Jennings will try to avoid.

"I think what I have over a lot of other rookies is we made the playoffs my first year and I was able to experience that," Jennings tells the Journal Sentinel. "I was harping on making the playoffs and we did it, so that just sets my goals even higher. You get a taste of it and you want to get back there again."

Jennings' goal is to average at least 10 assists per game and increase his 37 percent shooting percentage from last season.

http://[h3]No extension for Thornton[/h3]
4:59AM ET

[h5]Al Thornton | Wizards [/h5]

Al Thornton, like most of the first round picks from the 2007 draft, won't be signing an extension by Monday's deadline.

"I think Al's about to go to a whole other level and I think the way he's perceived right now, I think there is going to be an ability to enhance his reputation around the league and within that organization," agent Bill Duffy told The Washington Post on Tuesday. "I don't think he's had enough time there to really demonstrate what his new value will be moving forward. I think he has a huge upside and will have a huge role on that team."

Duffy added, "It's worth our while to wait."

According to the newspaper, the Wizards did not and will not discuss an extension with Thornton, Yi Jianlian and Nick Young as they prefer to let all three become restricted free agents starting in July.

Wednesday is opening night for most of the NBA, and we've been talking about the league's big questions for most of the summer -- questions like where Carmelo Anthony goes, how Kobe's knee feels and whether the Heat's Big Three can coalesce into a superteam.

But dig under the surface and we can find some bigger, broader questions that, in total, may have a bigger impact on how the 2010-11 season looks than the three items above.
[h3]1. Are we in for some surprises? [/h3]
Or to put it another way, is Memphis any good? As our Tom Haberstroh noted recently, teams that roll through the preseason tend to keep up the happy mojo once the real games start. All but one of the past 17 teams to finish exhibition play with one loss or fewer went on to make the playoffs.

This season three teams -- Memphis, Utah and Orlando -- fit that profile, with all three running the table in the preseason. That Utah and Orlando might be playoff-caliber teams isn't exactly breaking news, but the Grizzlies staying at that level would be. I projected them to win 36 games, and only one of our prognosticators, the intrepid Chris Sheridan, pegged Memphis as a playoff team.

Based on their preseason, however, I'm thinking something in the low-to-mid-40s might be more appropriate. The bench looks vastly improved, the commitment to defense looks a bit more serious and Mike Conley had a strong preseason at the point. I still don't trust the ownership of Michael Heisley or the leadership of Zach Randolph, but the Griz may nonetheless win more than they lose.

The Grizzlies aren't the only potential surprise based on preseason results. Minnesota and Cleveland both went 6-2, which would be an absolute shocker if it carried over to the regular season. I'm more skeptical of those teams' chances of doing anything substantial, but at the very least they may not be the bottom-feeders that most of us predicted them to be.

Of course, if one team goes up another must come down. I suspect those teams are Phoenix and New Orleans, both of whom looked absolutely dreadful in the preseason -- they went a combined 3-13 and each had a loss by more than 50 points.

Scouts tell me that Chris Paul looks out of shape, which is a huge red flag for the Hornets; I picked them to win 45 games based largely on Paul's brilliance, but if he can't play at an MVP level they're going to land miles short of that mark. The rest of the roster, even with the recent addition of Jerryd Bayless, simply isn't equipped to contend for the playoffs unless Paul dominates.

Phoenix is another point guard-driven franchise and is fresh off a trip to the Western Conference finals, but it faces a slew of questions after a head-scratching offseason that left the Suns a few bodies short up front and minus the spectacular finishing talents of Amare Stoudemire. (As Suns coach Alvin Gentry pointedly told me before the Phoenix-Portland game Tuesday night, Stoudemire is the best dive man in the league on the pick-and-roll and there's no way Hakim Warrick or anybody else is replacing what he did.)

The Suns went 2-6 in preseason, with losses by 21, 38 and 51 points, and the scary thing is that the seven-seconds-or-less attack cleared 100 points only once in eight tries -- in the game they lost by 38. The fact they left Portland with only 92, including a meager 11 in the fourth quarter, offers further evidence that the league's best offense every year for the past half-decade may emphatically cede that crown this season.
[h3]2. Are we selling the field short?[/h3]
Virtually every set of predictions lists one of three teams as champion: the Lakers, Heat or Celtics. I'm wondering if this consensus is missing the boat on reality, and I'm not just saying that because the Heat and Lakers looked somewhere south of dominant Tuesday night.

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Fernando Medina/NBAE/Getty ImagesDon't sleep on D-12 and the Magic.

In light of the fact that Orlando dominated the preseason after dominating the second half of last season, I find it particularly hard to swallow how dismissive most people seem of the Magic's chances.

Apparently lots of people saw last year's Eastern Conference finals and decided the Magic can't be trusted in the playoffs ... which might be a better argument if they hadn't won the East a year earlier (with Rafer Alston playing point guard, for Pete's sake). If the effects of Dwight Howard-stopper Kendrick Perkins' knee injury linger into the postseason, the Magic might be able to outlast Boston in a potential meeting. Alternatively, they may not need to play the Celtics at all.

And then there's the wild card: trades. Remember, you don't win with your November roster; you win with the roster you take into the playoffs. Look at the top teams and at which ones have the assets to make major upgrades between now and the trade deadline, and you'll quickly notice that it's not the Lakers, Celtics and Heat who are holding the cards.

Teams such as Portland, Oklahoma City, Houston and Orlando sit on major asset troves, which could enable them to make the necessary upgrades and roster tweaks to push them up another level. You don't think Orlando becomes a favorite if it can use its assets to pry Paul from New Orleans?

And out West, the Rockets, Blazers and Thunder all are sitting on mouth-watering combinations of young players, draft picks and expiring contracts, just waiting for the right player to become available. Between L.A.'s wobbly knees and the potential for those three clubs to considerably upgrade their rosters over the course of the season, I'm wondering if the Western Conference in particular will end up being far more interesting than we've been led to believe.
[h3]3. Are CP3 and Melo the tip of the iceberg? [/h3]
We've spilled countless gallons of (virtual) ink speculating on the possibilities of Chris Paul or Carmelo Anthony changing teams, and with good reason.

But all that speculation has blinded us to the other possibilities that may come to the fore this season, especially as other potential contenders find themselves falling short of expectations.

I'll lead with Exhibit A: Steve Nash. He loves the desert and certainly benefits from the Suns' world-class training staff, but how much longer does he endure the penny-pinching ownership and the fact that the final years of his prime will be spent scratching and clawing to get the No. 8 seed in the West? All his interviews sound like he's trying to talk himself into optimism through gritted teeth, but the reality is that his owner nuked a team (and front office) that was two wins from the Finals and, if he stays put, Nash and Co. are probably going to the lottery.

Even if Nash doesn't push for a trade, what sense does it make for the Suns to hang on to him (and Grant Hill, for that matter) if they're bumbling along toward 32-50? Wouldn't it be more prudent at that point to trade their four 30-something starters and rebuild?

Nash isn't the only example. Is Zach Randolph content to stay in Memphis during his walk year without an extension? Does Jamal Crawford push harder for a trade if his deal isn't extended but Al Horford's is? Does Devin Harris want to stick around in New Jersey with a coach that dealt him once and tried to a second time? And if either Dallas or San Antonio doesn't live up to expectations with veteran rosters, well, who wouldn't be available from those teams?

Finally, once the dominoes start falling, other pieces come into play. If the Nuggets deal Anthony, is there any point in their hanging on to Chauncey Billups? If the Hornets trade Paul, doesn't it also make sense to deal free-agent-to-be David West? And if the Suns blow it up with a Nash trade, wouldn't Jason Richardson become available too?
[h3]4. How will the lockout affect the NBA, here and now?[/h3]
Everyone around the league is talking about the potential lockout in the summer of 2011. But almost nobody is talking about the implications of a potential lockout on the 2010-11 season -- impacts that will be felt regardless of whether a lockout actually happens.

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Brian Bahr/Getty ImagesNegotiations between David Stern and the players union could impact teams' moves this season.

For instance, a draft pick in 2011 is now worth a lot less than one in 2012, because it's likely many of the good underclassmen will be unwilling to give up a year of college ball just so they can sit in the freezer for a year (or part of one) during a lockout, and their decision window will likely come long before a new labor agreement. That, perhaps, is one reason the pick the Blazers got from New Orleans this week is only top-7 protected in 2011 -- that might prove to be like a top-13 protection in any other year.

Another impact is that it might be easier for some players to pass on signing extensions if they can possibly go to Europe and earn some dough while the rest of the league is locked out. Along the same lines, it might make it more palatable for other players to exercise opt-outs before June 30, knowing it gives them more flexibility to earn a paycheck elsewhere. This, again, will be the case regardless of whether we have an actual work stoppage -- the effects will be felt even if the cause never takes place.

And we've already seen the first impact. All that crazy money we saw spent this past summer happened, in part, because several teams seemed to be pricing a lockout into their expectations, anticipating that they wouldn't need to meet their 2011-12 payroll commitments in full, and anticipating that a rollback is a possible provision of any settlement.
[h3]5. Who steps up the D?[/h3]
During most of NBA history, defense hasn't been a particularly large determinant of championships -- great offensive teams have won about as often as great defensive clubs. The last few years, however, have skewed badly in favor of the defense.

Boston won the title in 2008 with a shockingly effective defense, one that was far better than one would have presumed given the results of their individual players heading into that season. The Lakers, in turn, realized they had to turn their own D up a notch after advancing to the Finals as largely an offensive team in 2008; by last year, their defense was several notches ahead of the offense in the league tables. Orlando belongs on that list too, after the Magic won five playoff series in two years on the back of two-time Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard.

But the examples of Boston and L.A. intrigue me more because they were so indicative of an extraordinary team-wide focus on that end of the floor.

This season, one wonders if the Heat can replicate the same commitment the Celtics showed in 2008. Certainly Miami has the organization and coaching staff to pull it off -- coach Erik Spoelstra, a disciple of team president Pat Riley, cajoled a limited Heat squad into the fourth-best defense a year ago.

But a better question, perhaps, is what conditions would be needed for us to get a surprise entrant into the league's elite Lakers-Celtics-Heat-Magic quartet. As noted above, I'm looking more carefully at the "field" this year than most, and I'm suspecting a meteoric rise in Defensive Efficiency would be a likely cause of any ascent to the elite foursome's level.

If so, as with the Lakers and Celtics, it's going to be as much a result of esprit de corps as of individual talent. Several teams, on paper, could do such a thing. We won't find out until the games tip off, though -- a statement that applies to virtually every question we've had this offseason.

So enough of the guessing, already.

For the 22 teams playing their opening games tonight, it's time to tip this thing off and find out.

proshares · Oct 27, 2010