So has your team got you down because they "blew it up" at the deadline?
Don't worry,
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=chaCharlotte Bobcats fans. Good things come to those who wait. Patience is a virtue. Dust off all the idioms you can find, because you'll need the reassurance in the next few seasons.
Not all "blowups" are the same, and they're difficult to identify objectively. Typically, the rebuilding franchise receives at least one of the following: first-round picks, cash considerations, a promising young player or an expiring contract. You know one when you see it. Or, rather, you know it when you hear it. Check the quotes in the paper. If a general manager utters buzzwords such as "future," "cap room" or "flexibility" as motivation for trading his star player, that's a surefire sign that the reset button has been pressed.
Downshifting into rebuild mode typically occurs when the organization feels it has reached the ceiling with its current personnel. With
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/1026/gerald-wallaceGerald Wallace and his $10.5 million annual contract in the fold, the Bobcats waded in the outskirts of the playoffs, and the future wasn't much brighter. Although team owner
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/1035/michael-jordanMichael Jordan didn't express it explicitly, he alluded to Charlotte's middling potential in his post-trade comments: "We don't want to be the seventh or eighth seed." Sure enough, he also cited "flexibility" as an impetus for trading Wallace, the only Bobcats player ever to be selected to the All-Star game. In return, the Bobcats received a solid package of
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/682/joel-przybillaJoel Przybilla,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3974/dante-cunninghamDante Cunningham and two future first-round picks.
But does that strategy work? The
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=minMinnesota Timberwolves still haven't shown signs of life after unloading
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/261/kevin-garnettKevin Garnett to the
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=bosBoston Celtics in 2007, failing to win 25 games in a season since they jettisoned the 10-time All-Star, and they have seemingly gone backward since David Kahn took over for Kevin McHale, the KG trade's engineer.
But not all "blow it up" cases have lead to several seasons of futility. To learn more about the Bobcats situation, let's review some recent "blowup" cases that occurred at the trade deadline and how each team has recovered after the smoke cleared.
[h3]
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=memMemphis Grizzlies, 2007-08[/h3]
The most notorious "blow it up" trade of recent memory belongs to the
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/996/pau-gasolPau Gasol to
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lalLos Angeles Lakers deal the Grizzlies made in 2007-08. In exchange for Gasol's services, the Lakers sent
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/981/kwame-brownKwame Brown (expiring contract),
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3197/javaris-crittentonJavaris Crittenton, the rights to Gasol's brother Marc, two first-round draft picks and cash considerations to Memphis. Although the quality of assets didn't match, that type of package qualifies the Gasol deal as the quintessential "blow it up" trade, even if we ignore that there was nothing to detonate. The Grizzlies stood at 13-33 at the time of the trade, following a 22-60 campaign the previous season.
But in classic "blow it up" fashion, the team shed Gasol's bulky salary, which was $13.7 million in 2007-08 with three years and $49 million remaining, and in doing so they started from scratch. Like most rebuilding projects, the turnaround took time. The Grizzlies made their big move up the standings last season, adding 16 wins to their 2008-09 total and finishing 40-42. This year, the team has continued its growth, on pace to add another four wins to their season total.
This was part of the plan, according to GM Chris Wallace. After dealing Gasol, he justified the deal by saying, "I'm not putting us off four or five years. I'm looking at a timetable of two to three years when we'll have the roster where we want it."
It's hard to argue the Grizzlies aren't where they want to be at this point. A look at John Hollinger's playoff odds shows that Memphis projects to finish 46-36, which gives them about an 84 percent chance to make the playoffs. To put this vault in perspective, there's a chance that the Grizzlies double their 2008-09 win total in just two seasons. The fifth seed in the West is within reach.
By trading for Gasol's brother, the Grizzlies could be more efficient with their payroll. Since joining Memphis,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3206/marc-gasolMarc Gasol has yielded about 24 wins worth of production, in terms of estimated wins added (EWA), for the cool price of $10 million. Pau, on the other hand, has produced 44 wins in Los Angeles for about $50 million. That extra cash frees Memphis to invest elsewhere while still enjoying Marc's big-time contributions. Sure, all else equal, the Grizzlies would prefer Pau on the court, but bang for the buck is what rebuilds are all about.
[h3]
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=norNew Orleans Hornets, 2004-05[/h3]
At the 2004-05 deadline, the Hornets traded
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/194/baron-davisBaron Davis to the
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=gswGolden State Warriors for
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/150/speedy-claxtonSpeedy Claxton,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/187/dale-davisDale Davis and cash considerations after the All-Star point guard led the Hornets organization to four straight playoff appearances. Davis had worn out his welcome, carried an enormous contract and failed to keep himself in shape, so the Hornets cut ties with their franchise player.
If we rewind
back to the trade and read quotes from then-Hornets GM Allan Bristow, we see that his rhetoric contains all the tell-tale signs of a "blow it up" deal:
"This trade ... shows that we are willing to take the necessary steps to gain the flexibility that will allow us to successfully build our team. We feel that we now have a core of young, dynamic players that will not only mold into an effective unit for the rest of this season, but that we can also use as a base to build upon for the future."
Like the Gasol trade, the Hornets got out of Davis' heavy contract and decided that, in the long run, cash relief was more important to an 11-43 team than his expensive and spotty production. The Hornets finished 2004-05 sporting an 18-64 record and a starting lineup of
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/1706/dan-dickauDan Dickau,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2444/jr-smithJ.R. Smith,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/590/lee-nailonLee Nailon,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2449/jackson-vromanJackson Vroman and
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/99/pj-brownP.J. Brown. The team's ineptitude yielded the fourth slot in the subsequent draft.
Of course, we know what happened next:
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2779/chris-paulChris Paul fell in their lap on draft night. And the rest is history.
It's hard to imagine a scenario that would work out more in the Hornets' favor. Had the
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=atlAtlanta Hawks made the logical selection of
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2798/deron-williamsDeron Williams or Paul with their second pick in the 2005 draft, the Hornets could have easily ended up with
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2797/marvin-williamsMarvin Williams. Instead, the organization managed to land one of the best players in the NBA for years to come, while paying him on a rookie scale contract.
Riding Paul's transformative talent, the Hornets returned to the playoffs just three seasons after dealing Davis. No team can bank on netting a player of Paul's caliber with the fourth pick in a draft, but nonetheless New Orleans hit the jackpot, and Paul reversed the fortunes of the entire franchise overnight.
[h3]
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=wasWashington Wizards, 2009-10[/h3]
Washington general manager Ernie Grunfeld gutted this team like a fish.
In return for
Caron Butler,
Antawn Jamison and
Brendan Haywood, the Wizards walked away with
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2006/josh-howardJosh Howard,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3237/al-thorntonAl Thornton,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/362/zydrunas-ilgauskasZydrunas Ilgauskas,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2188/quinton-rossQuinton Ross,
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2873/james-singletonJames Singleton, the
Cleveland Cavaliers' 2010 first-round pick, the rights to Slovenian forward Emir Preldzic and cash considerations. The Wizards then bought out Ilgauskas, saving the team another $1.5 million.
As expected, Grunfeld dropped the flexibility bomb after deal-making. "We need some freshness and we're getting proven players who will help us," the GM said. "And it gives us some flexibility down the road."
With Thornton being bought out on Tuesday, the only survivor of the Wizards' blowup is Howard -- and that's only because the Wizards re-signed him in the offseason.
The Wizards were 17-33 when the dominos started to fall, and the team eventually stumbled to a 26-56 record. But in the NBA, futility can be rewarded. After all the carnage, the Wizards won the draft lottery and selected
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4237/john-wallJohn Wall with the first pick. He's no Paul, but Wall certainly has the potential to develop into an elite point guard long before his rookie contract expires. The Wiz still have a ways to go, however, as evidenced by their lowly record of 15-44.
And what have the Wizards done with their precious flexibility? Not much. They handed a 5-year, $36 million contract to
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2746/andray-blatcheAndray Blatche in the offseason, and the returns so far have been uninspiring to say the least.
Hoopdata.com tells us that among the 22 power forwards averaging 30 or more minutes per game, Blatche wields the worst true shooting percentage (48.5). His rebounding rate (13.2 percent) is merely average for his position. It's a dubious contract for an equally dubious prospect.
It's clear that the Washington franchise is still under construction. Super-athletic youngster
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3452/javale-mcgeeJaVale McGee and Wall represent the building blocks for the organization. And although it's unlikely, they could win the lottery again, which would go a long way to the team regaining respect. But right now, it's hard to envision a return to the playoffs before the 2013-14 season.
